By any measure 2014 has been a truly historic year which saw huge, I would say, even tectonic developments. This year ends in very high instability, and the future looks hard to guess. I don’t think that anybody can confidently predict what might happen next year. So what I propose to do today is something far more modest. I want to look into some of the key events of 2014 and think of them as vectors with a specific direction and magnitude. I want to look in which direction a number of key actors (countries) “moved” this year and with what degree of intensity. Then I want to see whether it is likely that they will change course or determination. Then adding up all the “vectors” of these key actors (countries) I want to make a calculation and see what resulting vector we will obtain for the next year. Considering the large number of “unknown unknowns” (to quote Rumsfeld) this exercise will not result in any kind of real prediction, but my hope is that it will prove a useful analytical reference.The main event and the main actors
A comprehensive analysis of 2014 should include most major countries on the planet, but this would be too complicated and, ultimately, useless. I think that it is indisputable that the main event of 2014 has been the war in the Ukraine. This crisis not only overshadowed the still ongoing Anglo-Zionist attack on Syria, but it pitted the world’s only two nuclear superpowers (Russia and the USA) directly against each other. And while some faraway countries did have a minor impact on the Ukrainian crisis, especially the BRICS, I don’t think that a detailed discussion of South African or Brazilian politics would contribute much. There is a short list of key actors whose role warrants a full analysis. They are:
- The USA
- The Ukrainian Junta
- The Novorussians (DNR+LNR)
- The EU
I submit that these seven actors account for 99.99% of the events in the Ukraine and that an analysis of the stance of each one of them is crucial. So let’s take them one by one:
1 – The USA
Of all the actors in this crisis, the USA is by far the most consistent and coherent one. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Hillary Clinton and Victoria Nuland were very clear about US objectives in the Ukraine:
Zbigniew Brzezinski: Without Ukraine Russia ceases to be empire, while with Ukraine – bought off first and subdued afterwards, it automatically turns into empire…(…) the new world order under the hegemony of the United States is created against Russia and on the fragments of Russia. Ukraine is the Western outpost to prevent the recreation of the Soviet Union.
Hillary Clinton: There is a move to re-Sovietise the region (…) It’s not going to be called that. It’s going to be called a customs union, it will be called Eurasian Union and all of that, (…) But let’s make no mistake about it. We know what the goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it.
Victoria Nuland: F**k the EU!
Between the three, these senior US “deep-staters” have clearly and unambiguously defined the primary goal of the USA: to take control of the Ukraine to prevent Russia from becoming a new Soviet Union, regardless of what the EU might have to say about that. Of course, there were other secondary goals which I listed in June of this year (see here):
As a reminder, what were the US goals in the Ukraine: (in no particular order)
- Sever the ties between Russia and the Ukraine
- Put a russophobic NATO puppet regime in power in Kiev
- Boot the Russians out of Crimea
- Turn Crimea into a unsinkable US/NATO aircraft carrier
- Create a Cold War v2 in Europe
- Further devastate the EU economies
- Secure the EU’s status as “US protectorate/colony”
- Castrate once and for all EU foreign policies
- Politically isolate Russia
- Maintain the worldwide dominance of the US dollar
- Justify huge military/security budgets
I have color-coded objectives these objectives into the following categories:
Achieved – black
Still possible – too early to call – blue
Compromised – pink
Failed – red
Current “score card”: 1 “achieved”, 5 “possible, 2 “compromised” and 3 “failed”.
Here is how I would re-score the same goals at the end of the year:
- Sever the ties between Russia and the Ukraine
- Put a russophobic NATO puppet regime in power in Kiev
- Boot the Russians out of Crimea
- Turn Crimea into a unsinkable US/NATO aircraft carrier
- Create a Cold War v2 in Europe
- Further devastate the EU economies
- Secure the EU’s status as “US protectorate/colony”
- Castrate once and for all EU foreign policies
- Politically isolate Russia
- Maintain the worldwide dominance of the US dollar
- Justify huge military/security budgets
New score card: 6 “achieved”, 1 “possible”, 1 “compromised” and 3 “failed”
At first glance, this is a clear success for the USA: from 1 achieved to 6 with the same number of “failed” is very good for such a short period of time. However, a closer look will reveal something crucial: all the successes of the USA were achieved at the expense of the EU and none against Russia. Not only that, but the USA has failed in its main goal: to prevent Russia from becoming a superpower, primarily because the US policy was based on a hugely mistaken assumption: that Russia needed the Ukraine to become a superpower again. This monumental miscalculation also resulted in another very bad fact for the USA: the dollar is still very much threatened, more so than a year ago in fact.
This is so important that I will repeat it again: the AngloZionist Empire predicated its entire Ukrainian strategy on a completely wrong assumption: that Russia “needed” the Ukraine. Russia does not, and she knows that. As we shall see later, a lot of the key events of this year are a direct result of this huge miscalculation.
The US is now facing a paradox: “victory” in the Ukraine, “victory” in Europe, but failure to stop a rapidly rising Russia. Worse, these “victories” came at a very high price which included creating tensions inside the EU, threatening the future of the US shale gas industry, alienating many countries at the UN, being deeply involved with a Nazi regime, becoming the prime suspect in the shooting down of MH17 and paying the costs for an artificially low price of gold. But the single worst consequence of the US foreign policy in the Ukraine has been the establishment of a joint Russian-Chinese strategic alliance clearly directed against the United States (more about that later).
Can the US stay the course next year? That is hard to predict but I would say that in terms of direction the US policy will be more of the same. It is the magnitude (in the sense of will/energy to pursue) of this policy which is dubious. Traditionally, US policies are typically very intensive in the short term, but lack the staying power to see them through in the long term and there is no reason to believe that this case will be different. Furthermore, the US foreign policy establishment is probably simply unable to imagine a different approach: the United States do not really have a real foreign policy, rather they issue orders and directives to their vassal states and threats to all others. Finally, just as some banks are considered “too big to fail” the US policy towards the Ukraine is “too crazy to correct” thus any change of course would result in a major loss of face for an Empire which really cannot afford one more humiliating defeat right now. Still, when the political and financial costs of this policy become prohibitive, the US might have to consider the option to “declare victory and leave” (a time-honored US practice) and let the EU deal with the mess. There is also the very real risk of war with Russia which might give some US decision-makers pause. This is possible, but I am afraid that the US will try to play it’s last card and trigger a full-scale war between the Ukraine and Russia.
Why would the US want to do that? Imagine this:
A full scale war between Russia and the Ukraine
The Ukrainians are told to attack Novorussia again. This time, they are more numerous, better equipped and their attack is fully supported, if not executed, by American “advisers” and retired US Army officers. Imagine further that the Ukrainians are given full intelligence support by US/NATO and that their progress is monitored 24/7 by US/NATO commanders who will help them in the conduct of the attack. Finally, let us assume that the Novorussians are overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude and speed of the attack and that Lugansk and Donetsk are rapidly surrounded. At this point the Russians will face a stark choice: either to abandon Novorussia to the Nazis or intervene. The first option would be catastrophic for Putin politically, and it would “solve” nothing: the Ukrainian junta, the US, EU, NATO have all clearly and repeatedly stated that they will never accept the reincorporation of Crimea into Russia. Furthermore, if the Russians let the Nazis overrun Novorussia, the next logical step for the Ukrainians will be to move south and repeat the very same operation in Crimea at which point Russia will not even have a choice and she will be forced to engage the Ukrainians to defend Crimea. Thus, if the Russians realize that the Ukrainians will push on no matter what, then Russia would be far better of engaging the Ukrainians over Novorussia then over Crimea.
If the Russians make the call that they have to openly intervene to save the Donbass from the Nazis, the Ukrainians don’t stand a chance and everybody knows that. The Russians would very rapidly defeat the Ukrainian forces. Such a Russian move would be greeted by a massive media campaign denouncing the Russian “invasion” and Kiev would probably declare the Ukraine at war in which case the combat operations would probably spill over into other parts of the Ukraine or even Russia (the Ukrainians could, for example, try to strike Russians airports around Rostov or in Crimea). Whatever the Ukrainians decide, it is certain that they would have nothing to lose by escalating the situation further. In military terms, Russia can easily handle whatever the Ukrainians can try to throw at them. However I would not expect the Russians push to Kiev or the Dniper River, even if they could. They are most likely to do what they did to Saakashvili in 2008: protect the attacked region and only go as far as needed to disarm their enemy (in 2008 Russia could *easily* have occupied all of tiny Georgia, but she ended up withdrawing behind Ossetian and Abkhaz lines).
Such a Russian victory would be a crushing military defeat for Kiev, but not for the USA. The Americans would have their ‘proof’ of Russian imperial “aggression” and declare that the EU needs “protection” from the “Russian bear”. The US would finally have the Cold War v2 it wants so badly, the EU politicians would play along, just to terrify their own population, and a “wonderful” arms race and a situation of extreme tension would pit all of Europe against Russia for a long, long time. Even for the junta in Kiev a military defeat might be a wonderful opportunity to blame it all on Russia and a way to get the population to rally against the “aggressor”. Such a war between Russia and the Ukraine could also justify the introduction of martial law and a massive and vicious crackdown against “Russian agents” (i.e. any opposition) who would be designated as “saboteurs” and responsible for the inevitable Ukrainian defeat.
In the Ukraine and in Russia there is this black-humor joke which says that “the USA will fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian” and this is exactly what might happen as this option offers a lot of major advantages for the USA. For one thing, it is a win-win proposition: either the Ukrainians re-take Novorussia and then the very same plan can be repeated in Crimea, or they are defeated by Russia, in which case the resulting crisis offers huge benefits for US imperial ambitions.
Now let’s look at the options for the Ukrainian junta.
2 – The Ukrainian Junta
For the Nazi regime currently in power things are not going well and unless something changes they are headed for disaster: Crimea is gone, the Donbass is slowly but surely building up its instruments of statehood, the economy is basically dead and the “holes in the dam” harder and harder to plug. An explosion of popular unrest is inevitable. Worse, there are exactly *zero* future prospects for the Ukrainian economy and an official default is quasi inevitable. So what can the junta do?
Here it is crucial to remember that no Ukrainian politician has any real power, not even Poroshenko, Iatseniuk or Turchinov. The real rulers of the Ukraine are the US ambassador and the Kiev CIA station chief. These are the people who literally administer the Nazi junta on behalf of the US deep state and its imperial interests. As for the Ukrainian members of the junta, they all perfectly understand that their future is 100% dependent on being a faithful servant of the AngloZionist Empire. They all understand that they came to power by means of an completely illegal coup, that the elections they organized this year were a total farce and that they will soon have to use repressive measures against their own population just to stay in power. Last but not least, these are the folks who not only used chemical munitions, cluster bombs and even ballistic missiles against their own people, but who also send their own armed forces to be slaughtered in useless and criminally irresponsible “surprises” ordered by Poroshenko (the attempt to encircle Novorussia and to cut it off from the Russian border). We are talking about hardened war criminals here, people with no conscience whatsoever, sociopaths with a total lack of any moral compass. These are the folks who spoke a “barbecue of insects” in Odessa when 100+ people were tortured to death or burned alive and who giggled about shooting down the wrong place about MH-17 (Kolomoisky video). In fact, they are currently engaged in a racist hate-campaign.
Check out these posters which were recently shown in Kiev as part of a competition of patriotic posters. If a picture is worth one thousand words, just glancing at these few will tell you all you need to know about the wordview of the Nazi junta: (note: I translated the meaning of the slogans)
|Russians don’t get to speak|
|All together we will stop Russian terrorism|
|God’s speaks through the people’s voice|
|Fuck off Eurasian bastard!|
|May each slave wake up in a coffin|
|Getting a Russian passport makes you a Eurasian faggot|
|Don’t pass by – kill!|
I have to explain the last one: what you see is a “Colorado beetle” (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) which has colors similar to the ones seen on the Russian Saint George Ribbon. In other words, this poster says that if you pass by a Russian you should kill him. Notice the other themes: the Maidan was God’s voice, the Russians are “Eurasians” who are beasts who should have no right, not even the right to speak or live. This is exactly the same propaganda style as used by Hitler against Jews and we all know how this ended (yet again another proof that to refer to the junta as “Nazi” is perfectly justified).
But there is much more then just words to pay attention to.
The Ukrainian budget has finally been adopted by the Rada. It can be summarized as such: less services, more taxes and everything for the military and security services (3% of the GDP for the former, 2% for the latter). For a country which is essentially bankrupt this is a huge effort. Not only that, but the junta has also announced that it will execute another mobilization next year (the 4th one in less than one year!!). Now ask yourself a basic question: could such a truly titanic effort have been made without some very real expectations of a “return on investment”? When you see a regime stirring up racial hatred against part of its own population and against a neighboring country while putting all of its tiny and much needed resources towards preparations for war – is that not a surefire sign that a war in imminent?
As a former military analyst myself I can tell you that by now the Russian intelligence community’s “indicators and warnings” should be “flashing red” and that in all likelihood Russia is already preparing for war (more about Russia later). But before we look at the Russian position, we need to look into the situation of Novorussia.
3 – The Novorussians (DNR+LNR)
The Novorussians are finishing the year in which they have achieved an absolutely amazing feat: from literally being *nothing* they spontaneously got together to stand up against the Nazi junta and they prevailed even with the entire Ukrainian military was launched at them. It is hard to believe that just 12 months ago the Donbass only meekly requested some language rights and some local autonomy or that earlier this year very almost nobody predicted that the Donbass would rise up and defeat the junta’s death squads. And yet this miracle happened. How much did Russia really help? I would argue that not that much at all.
Initially, the Russian move to protect Crimea and the subsequent resolution of the Council of the Federation to allow Putin to use military power to protect the Russian minority in the Ukraine definitely played a key role in the first seizure of state buildings in Slaviansk and other town. Furthermore, Strelkov apparently believed that if he held on long enough the Russian armed forces would come and relieve the exhausted Novorussian militias. It never happened.
There is no doubt whatsoever that this apparent Russian “zag” left a lot of bad feelings in Novorussia and the theory that the Kremlin is about to “sell out” Novorussia is still discussed not only in the Russian blogosphere, but even on Russian TV (including yesterday on the most famous weekly talk show “Sunday evening with Vladimir Soloviev). Here is how this version goes: Putin is inherently weak and tries in vain to appease the West while Russian oligarchs are making a behind the scenes deal with their Ukrainian counterparts. Truth be told, this version is plausible, even if incorrect. The Kremlin’s policy towards the West sure does look like appeasement while Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs have tried to arrange deals whether with or without the knowledge of the Russian government.
Any model is valid as long as it helps to explain the observed reality and this “Kremlin sells out Novorussia” does explain a lot. But it fails in many crucial aspects:
- It fails to explain why following Strelkov’s removal the Novorussians went on their highly successful offensive which pushed the Ukrainians as far as Mariupol.
- It fails to explain the Russian Voentorg.
- It fails to explain why the Russian government has done nothing to stop the volunteers and supplies coming from Russia.
- It fails to explain why Russia would provide full informational support for a region and it’s leaders if she intended to trade it away.
But most importantly this theory is completely out-of-character if we look not only at what Putin says and writes, but at his entire political career. Simply put, there is nobody on this planet which has done more to oppose the AngloZionist Empire than Vladimir Putin. I think that the hysterical and vicious demonization campaign against him in the western media is the best proof of that. I shall give my own explanation for the Russian zig-zags towards the West and the Ukrainian war in the next section, but so far let’s just state that it created a lot of bad blood and anxiety amongst the Novorussians, including several of their field commanders.
For a while we witness the short lived but strong development of a “let’s not stop before we win” party. These are the folks who advocated at the very least liberating Slaviansk and Mariupol and who were absolutely disgusted when Russia clearly ordered the Novorussians to stop and pull back. This party of what I could also call “let the strength of arms decide” has clearly lost as one after the other the top Novorussian commanders accepted, however bitterly, the Kremlin’s demands. Some gave their strong and total support to Putin (Givi, Motorola, Bezler) while others gave a more reluctant acceptance of the fait accompli (Mozgovoi, Strelkov).
I won’t even bother discussing the “shoulda, coulda, woulda” about whether the Novorussians could have freed Mariupol, Slaviansk or other cities. What is important here is something else: Novorussia and Russia have different priorities, different goals, different interests and if the two sides disagree, the bigger one – Russia – imposes her will. In other words, the Novorussians simply cannot fight the Nazi death squads and try to politically prevail against Putin in the court of Russian public opinion. They tried, and they failed.
So what’s next?
The sad reality for the Novorussians is that they are stuck in the middle of a much bigger war and that what they see as “their” war is but a minor skirmish for the big players. Yes, the future of Novorussia is crucial to Russia, but it is not enough. Russia simply cannot live with a situation where a Ukrainian-Nazi equivalent of ISIS in Iraq remains in power in Kiev, regardless of who is in power in Novorussia (I would argue that neither can Novorussia, but that is an argument I made elsewhere already). Clearly the Kremlin analysts made the call that while Novorussia should be protected from the Ukrainian Nazis it should not be allowed to fight an open-ended war to free all of Novorussia or, even less so, the entire Ukraine (I happen to agree with this conclusion, but that is immaterial for this discussion).
For a while I was under the impression that Strelkov might become a “spokesman for Novorussia” in Russia, but that clearly did not happen (for whatever reason). In fact, right now there is no such ambassador or spokesman for Novorussia in Russia, nobody to make the Novorussian case in front of the Russian public opinion. I don’t think that this is a good thing, but that is the reality.
As a result, the Novorussians are basically stuck. They have to prepare for the almost inevitable Ukrainian assault and pray that they will have the strength to push it back. Should they fail, they will have no other option than to pray for a Russian intervention which, considering the undeniable Russian zigs-zags in this matter, will not appear certain to all. This is a bad situation for the Novorussians, but they have no other options. Putin has successfully imposed his will on the Novorussians and now their future depends on him, for better or for worse.
4 – Russia
So far Russia stands undefeated by the AngloZionist empire, but she is far from having prevailed either. In fact, Russia is waging a much bigger war or, more accurately, a number of much bigger wars.
First, Russia is trying to survive the attempt by the AngloZionist Empire to economically blockade her.
Second, in order to survive that blockade, Russia is trying to reform her economy to make it less dependent on the export of raw materials, more autonomous and connected to new partners, especially in Asia and Latin America.
Third, Russia is trying to de-fang the Empire by pulling herself out from the dollar and the US/UK controlled international financial system.
Fourth, Russia is trying to prevent the USA from permanently installing a russophobic Nazi regime in power.
Fifth, Russia is preparing for both a major war in the Ukraine and a full scale US/NATO attack on Russia.
It is important to stress here that point #5 does not mean that the Kremlin has come to the conclusion that a full-scale war with the Empire is inevitable. That only means that the Kremlin has decided that such a war is possible, even if most unlikely. You think I am exaggerating?
Let me show you two videos. One a commentary by the most senior journalist in Russia – Dimitri Kiselev – while the other one is a video report shown to President Putin at the end of the year by the Ministry of Defense during a conference on the status of the Russian military and later posted on the Ministry of Defenses’ website.
First the political context:
And second, the military’s preparations for war:
Combine the two and you will clearly see that a) nobody in Russia has any illusions about what the Empire really wants (submit Russia) or about the tools the Empire is willing to use (full scale war). And to leave no doubt in anybody’s mind, Russia has also revised her 2010 military doctrine to designate NATO expansion eastwards by name as the bigger threat to Russia and to restate that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if her conventional forces fail to protect her.
When in Mach of this year I wrote that Russia was ready for war I got a lot of replies accusing me of being over-the-top. Today the writing is all over the wall: Russia does not want war, but she is definitely preparing for it.
I would, however, argue that the biggest threat for Russia is internal, not external. Nothing is more dangerous for the future of Russia then what I call the “Atlantic Integrationists” and which Putin even called the “5th column”. And make no mistake here, we are not talking about Khodorkovsy in New York or Navalnii in the streets of Moscow. We are talking about powerful, rich, influential people who for decades (since Gorbachev’s times, or even before) have infiltrated all the levels of government and who today are even in the government of Prime Minister Medvedev. True, these pro-AngloZionist 5th columnists have suffered a series of setbacks and they have been weakened by Putin’s relentless assault on their power, but what does “weaker” really mean in our context? According to Mikhail Khazin the Eurasian Sovereignists and the Atlantic Integrationists are now roughly at 50/50 in terms of power. That’s right, Putin is far from having total control of Russia and he is in fact locked into a war for survival against a formidable foe who will try to capitalize on every setback Russia suffers, especially in her economy. Putin knows that and he is therefore in a race against time to de-couple Russia from the economic and financial mechanisms which make it possible for the AngloZionists to hurt Russia.
How much does this 5th column account for the apparent zig-zags and apparent appeasement of the West by Russia?
I honestly don’t know. Neither does anybody else who is not a true Kremlin insider. In some cases, such as the Minsk agreements, I think that this apparent “zag” was an true expression of Russian political goals. But when I see that Russia is selling coal to the Ukraine on credit (?!) I can only conclude that this is a case of sabotage of Russian national interests. But we will never know for sure. All we can do is to accept that Russia is like a ship or aircraft which is generally holding a specific course, but which regularly zig-zags on the way because the folks in the cockpit are fighting for the control of the helm. In practical terms this means that next year Russia will mostly stay the course. Why? Because time is on Russia’s side. For Russia every month, week or day which can delay an overt confrontation with the Ukraine or the West is one day won for preparation internal reform. It is also one more day for the junta in Kiev to slide down one further notch, for the EU economies to carry the full impact of anti-Russian sanctions and for the US to suffer the political consequences of their arrogant, irresponsible and generally unpopular imperial policies.
The single most important political development for Russia is the Russian-Chinese Strategic Alliance (RCSA) which fundamentally changes the entire strategic posture of Russia. I will discuss this tectonic shift in world politics further below, but right now I want to the position of the EU.
5 – The EU
2014 was truly a historical year for the EU marked by the wholesale and abject surrender of the EU political leaders to the United States. From the EU guaranteed agreement between the opposition and Yanokovich which was broken the very next day, the Victoria Nuland’s famous words which were never challenged, to the introduction of sanctions the day after the signing of the Minsk agreement, to the political and economic seppuku against South Stream, to the shameful silence and even collaboration with the murderers of the passengers of MH17 – the EU has proven to all that it is only a spineless colony of the AngloZionist Empire and that the EU and the Ukraine are equally subservient puppets of the United States. There is no EU to speak of. It is a US controlled territory whose administration is entrusted to Germany to whose power all the EU nations have bowed. And in this system, countries such as Poland or Lithuania have a special role: to lead the EU in subservience to the USA.
From the latest statements of Putin and Lavrov it is pretty clear that they fully share Victoria Nulands opinion of the EU which they now seem consider as some kind of “geopolitical Conchita Wurst” not worthy of any respect or credibility.
Truly, the EU and its Eurobureaucratic elites have passed a point of no return. If in the past they could still pretend like the EU project was making the EU stronger and that in maintained the sovereignty of its member, now this kind of statement will only be met with a disgusted laughter. As a system the EU has committed suicide and nothing can be further expected of it until it collapses. The riots which have taken place in almost every country of western Europe are a clear sign that most Europeans are either fed-up or desperate or both. In a way, we could say that the EU is run by a Soviet-style nomenklatura which lives in complete detachment from the rest of the European people in a kind of US-built ivory tower high above the common people. Exactly the kind of situation which results in bloody uprisings and revolutions. I am personally convinced that an explosion of anger could happen anytime, especially in the EU countries bordering the Mediterranean. But unlike the Russians, the Europeans prefer their revolution in the warm weather. So maybe next summer?
The Russians have now officially declared that the NATO expansion into the east was the biggest threat for Russia. And yet I will make the case that NATO is a paper tiger, at least in military terms and that NATO simply does not have what it takes to attack Russia (for my reasons for stating that, please see here). I recently explained that on the blog, and I think that it is worth repeating this once more today:
One more thing: the Russians are most definitely upset about the very aggressive NATO stance because they – correctly – interpret it as a sign of hostility. But, contrary to what a lot of bloggers say, the Russians have no fear of the military threat posed by NATO. Their reaction to the latest NATO moves (new bases and personnel in Central Europe, more spending, etc.) is to denounce it as provocative, but Russian officials all insist that Russia can handle the military threat. As one Russian deputy said “5 rapid reaction diversionary groups is a problem we can solve with one missile”. A simplistic but basically correct formula. Putin said the very same thing when he clearly spelled out that in case of a massive conventional attack by “anybody” Russia would engage tactical nukes. In fact, if NATO goes ahead with its stupid plan to deploy forces in Poland and/or the Baltics I expect Russia with withdraw from the IRNF Treaty and deploy advanced successors to the famous RSD-10 (SS-20). As I mentioned before, the decision to double the size of the Russian Airborne Forces and to upgrade the elite 45th Special Designation Airborne Regiment to full brigade-size has already been taken anyway. You could say that Russia preempted the creation of the 10’000 strong NATO force by bringing her own mobile (airborne) forces from 36’000 to 72’000.
This is typical Putin. While NATO announces with fanfare and fireworks that NATO will create a special rapid reaction “spearhead” force of 10’000, Putin quietly doubles the size of the Russian Airborne Forces to 72’000. And, believe me, the battle hardened Russian Airborne Forces are a vastly more capable fighting force then the hedonistic and demotivated multi-national (28 countries) Euroforce of 5’000 NATO is struggling hard to put together. The US commanders fully understand that, and they also know that the real purpose of NATO is not to attack Russia, but to maintain the US control over Europe. As early as in 1949 the first NATO Secretary General, Lord Ismay, candidly admitted that NATO’s true goal was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down” (notice that in the typical russophobic way of the western elites, Russians are considered as the source of the threat even though in 1949 a Georgian was at the helm of the Soviet Union and that Russians had paid a much higher price in repressions then the non-Russian ethnic groups).
Little has changed since, except that with the “Soviet threat” gone NATO had to scramble to find a justification for itself and that it now wants to find it in the “need to protect European democracy from the resurgent Russian Bear”. In other words, the ideal situation for NATO is a crisis just one notch below a full-scale war. In case of a real, shooting, war against Russia NATO will be crushed, but as long as NATO can *pretend* it is defending Europe against Russia it is justifying its existence. Hence the silly hunts for Russian ghost submarines, the “interception” of Russian aircraft in international airspace and the constant stream of dramatic statements that NATO will never allow Russia to attack Poland or Lithuania (as if Russia wanted to do that in the first place!).
NATO will continue doing exactly that: pretend like Russia was going to attack Moldova next and that NATO must prevent that. The flow of incendiary and even frankly irresponsible statements will continue, NATO official will continue to deliver stark warnings to Russia with all the required gravitas and the Empire’s corporate media will report them as if they had a factual connection to reality. Keeping the Russians out, the German down and the Americans in will be an easy mission since the Russians don’t want in, the Germans have totally surrendered along the rest of Europe, and the Americans are already fully in charge.
7 – China
It is amazing for me to see that most observers and analysts have apparently failed to realize that China is now a key actor in the Ukrainian war. Anybody doubting this claim should read the Vineyard of the Saker White Paper written by Larchmonter 445 entitled The Russia-China Double Helix. To make a long story short, China and Russia have decided to keep their own “hands” (their armed forces) and their own “heads” (their political leadership) but to share a common “torso” (their economies, natural and human resources, their industrial and technological know-how and everything else which allows a society to prosper). I call this the Russia-China Strategic Alliance (RCSA) but really it is something even bigger then that – it is a long term decision to share a common fate and to take the risk to become inseparable. An alliance, a treaty, can be broken or withdrawn from. But once your “internal organs” are shared with another entity you are bound together, for better or for worse. What has happened is truly a tectonic geopolitical shift: two empires have decided to join together while remaining sovereign and independent. To my knowledge this has never happened in history and Putin and Xi have already changed the course of history by this monumental decision.
The two countries are ideal symbionts: everything one has the other needs and vice versa. China needs Russian raw materials, especially energy, Russian high technology (aerospace, engines, power plants, etc.) and Russian armaments (everything from the rifle bullet to the ICBM). Russia needs two things from China: money and “Walmart” (consumer goods). Together these two giants not only have immense currency resources but the biggest stash of physical gold on the planet. And, to make things even better, Russia and China are the undisputed leaders of BRICS and SCO. Taken together these two countries are already far more powerful than the AngloZionist Empire and that trend will only grow.
|A Russian, a Russian Asian and a Chinese solider|
Of course, China will not intervene militarily in the Ukraine. Remember – each country keeps its own “hands” so long as the other is not directly threatened. But in the Pacific Russian and Chinese navies are already training together and even creating joint command centers.
In the Ukraine, China still play a crucial role by providing Russia will all the economic aid needed to overcome the western sanctions and restructure the Russian economy. The Chinese have now officially declared that. It is both ironic and beautiful that after decades of Russian fears that China might try to conquer Siberia (even Solzhenitsyn shared these fears) Putin and Xi have found a much more intelligent solution – Russia will sell Siberia’s riches to China while China will protect Russia from the West. Again, this is truly a historic development whose importance cannot be overstated.
Adding up all these vectors
So let’s add it all up now. In summary:
The USA now has no other option then to press on their assault on Russia because what is at stake is quite literally the future of the AngloZionist Empire and, therefore, the future of our planet. China uniting with Russia is definitely bad news, but it is too late for the USA to back down now or even to change course. The Americans probably realize that they have fired their best shots already and that the Ukrainian junta is in deep trouble and that the collapse of their Nazi “Banderastan” is just a matter of time. In other words, the Empire is now in a “use them or lose them” situation and “fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian” is now the best option for the US 1%ers.
The Ukrainian Junta members are basically in the same situation as the USA: they must realize that their days are numbered and that their best chance is to do the US bidding and trigger a huge crisis.
The Novorussians are stuck: they have to do whatever the Kremlin wants them to do, hope for the best, prepare for the worst and courageously face anything in the middle.
Russia needs to avoid an open confrontation with the West for as long as possible.
The EU will remain as irrelevant and pathetic as ever.
NATO will play a dangerous game of brinkmanship trying to create as much tensions as possible without triggering an actual conflict.
China will do whatever it takes to protect Russia from the economic war waged against her.
From the above I conclude that unless some major development substantially alters the current dynamic the resulting vector clearly points at the inevitability of a full-scale war between Russia and the Ukraine along the scenario outlined above (“A full scale war between Russia and the Ukraine”). There is no reason whatsoever to expect the US, the Nazi junta, NATO or the EU to begin acting in a responsible or constructive manner. For these reasons, Russia will be alone in trying to avoid an intervention the Donbass and the inevitable war with the Ukraine following it. The best way for Russia to achieve this goal is to arm Novorussia to the teeth, to provide much more humanitarian support then now, to try re-launch as much of the Novorussian economy as possible (preferably by investments and contracts, not just grants) and generally help to make Novorussia as viable as possible under the current conditions. If the Novorussian could repeat their amazing feat once more and repel or, even better, deter the future Ukrainian attack this would be a crushing defeat not only for the junta in Kiev, but also for all its supporters in the AngloZionist Empire. The “equation” is simple: if Novorussia can stand up to the Ukrainians and Russia is not forced to intervene the Nazi regime in Kiev is finished along with the entire Neocon plan against Russia. If Russia is forced to intervene, Novorussia will be saved and the junta finished, but the Neocons plan will have succeeded and Russia will suffer a major geostrategic setback
Russia desperately needs more time and I expect the Russian diplomacy to try every possible delaying tactic imaginable to buy as much time as possible before the inevitable Ukrainian attack on Novorussia. I am even willing to consider that the recent sale (really, a gift) of coal to Kiev might be such a delaying tactic, I don’t know. What is clear for me that most of these delaying tactics will look like “appeasement” to the external observer and that, in the end, our perception of these moves will depend on our assumptions and, basically, our take on the person of Vladimir Putin. I might be wrong, but I personally trust him and short of very strong evidence I will never believe that he will “sell out” Novorussia or anybody else in the Ukraine. Not only do I believe that he is way too smart to do such a stupid and self-defeating thing, but I have also come to the conclusion that he is a highly principled person who will never betray the people he took an oath to defend.
My very tentative “guesstimates” for 2015:
2014 has been a historic year and so will be 2015, if only because 2014 set a great deal of things in motion, but resolved none of them. I have come to the conclusion that there is a 80% chance of a massive Ukrainian attack on Novorussia next year, probably in the first part of the year. My best guesstimate is that Novorussia will probably be able to beat back this attack, albeit with great effort and big losses. The Russian economy will continue to suffer and appear to be sinking for the next six months or so at which point it will gradually start reversing that trend. The EU economy will enter into full and deep recession resulting in widespread social unrest. As for the USA, they probably will be able to pretend like nothing big, not big disaster, is happening, if only thanks to the money printing machine and the best propaganda machine in history. What the US will be unable to do is to prevent the gradual but inexorable de-dollarization of more and more of the world economy, lead by China and Russia. The true and final collapse of the AngloZionist Empire is inevitable, but not for the next couple of years.
I wish you all the very best for 2015 and, above all, I wish you peace.
May God protect us all from war!
PS: I am now taking a couple of days of rest (I worked 16 hours yesterday to write this report and I am exhausted) and, barring some major event, I will not post anything here until January 2nd. The “donate” button on the left will still work (hint, hint). I will continue to moderate so please feel free to use the comments section below as an “open thread”.
PPS: The credit for both videos used in this report should go to:
Transcript & Translation: Mikhael, Dancing Queen, S, Marina, Natasha, DzhMM, Roobit & Eugene
Production: Marina & The French Saker
Crucial assistance: Marina, Francois, Augmented Ether
This last post as a lot of information, which will take some time to digest, especially on the implications side. Congratulations on the effort and the achievement.
Recent reader here, so please tell me what do You think as to the recent descriptions on Marin Katusa´s book (“The Colder War”) on Putin using the same false flag attacks as the “AngloZionist Empire” to secure his power over Russia and russian politics?
Or please direct me to some of Your older articles to find Your stand on that.
Thank You in advance and all the best in 2015.
Good report Saker, curious about what will happen in 2015. I think that despite all the dificulties, Russia wil defeat the US attack.
Also, I was looking at Zerohedge today and I just found this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-30/moscow-anti-corruption-protest-escalates-riot-police-arrive-live-feed
What do you think this is? Maybe it was a real demonstration at first but I wouldn’t be suprised if it is now being used by 5th column, or that if it is still real that it will be used by them.
2015 will be full of “Black Swans a-swimming”, which means that the future (2015) is unpredictable in detail but can safely be summed up as TSHTF. If you’re a “Prepper”, the worms will eat you food. In 2015 and beyond, there will be ONLY ONE WAY OF ESCAPE: “I am the Way, the Truth and the Life. NO ONE comes to the Father except through Me!”
Dear Sakar, You assume the US army is in the Baltics for cosmetic reasons. However their stated purpose, to defend this region, may be correct, for it then frees the Baltic/Poland armies to enter UA en masse. A long range ATO directed only at the civilian population could force RU to intervene as the death toll rises. If RU forces cross the border, as the polish press informs us, the Poland army must join/support the UA against this RU ‘invasion’. As soon as the war between the east EU armies and RU within UA reaches critical mass, the US forces could pull back from the Baltics to the German border and wait for the war to grow. Thus the Iran=Iraq war was stretched out for 8 years. This scenario has the advantage that strategic goals are met without direct involvement by the US and west EU armies. As the US showed last century, the side that wins wars does so by letting others do the fighting.
You need to add a detail…The collapst of the dollar… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iM4s3LYZQHM
Great article, Saker, except for this sentence which doesn’t seem to compute:
“The “equation” is simple: if Novorussia can stand up to the Ukrainians and Russia is not forced to intervene the Nazi regime in Kiev is finished along with the entire Neocon plan against Russia.”
Is something missing here or is there a typo?
To see, perhaps, some writing on the wall, read Ian Bemmer’s article ‘An Uneasy Path Abroad’ in the December 29th Time magainze. I summarize it on OEN under the title Time Eases Americans into Reality.
Excellent job making sense out of chaotic elements, conspiracies and hell on earth.
Appears to be another year of blaming Putin for all that Russia’s enemies are doing.
This analysis puts responsibility with the culprits.
No new solutions offered. Just a trajectory. War.
Bleak outlook. It all adds up.
However, those ‘unknown unknowns’ can’t be summed, can they?
That’s the bright side.
I just read the begnning of this so far, but starting off with the quotes of Brzezinsky and Clinton I can they are both very wrong.
Russia is not, of course, trying to build an empire — that’s just the psycho’s projections of what she wants.
As for Brz, when Russia and other BRICS consolidate more, and the petrodollar is broken, Ukraine won’t matter. There is no issue of defense, actually since Russia could destroy the West, US included, from the nuclear subs, and a land invasion via Ukraine by NATO can’t possibly succeed.
That the US, or neocons/neolibs at least, think like this shows how detached from reality it is — tilting against trees while the forest closes in on it … so 20th century and stuck in their group think bubble.
For one thing, the US was powerful in WW2 because of it’s vast industrial base which was converted to war supplies — now? forget it! Even the fancy electronic warfare and high tech stuff would collapse without China et al providing devices.
What happens when a very big and strong balloon bursts? I think that will be a part of the coming events — and it could be rather destructive for those nearby, as happens in the cartoons when a baloon bursts because so much of what the US is doing now is like a cartoon.
big event of note this topic involving china & eurasia pivot theme for russia is recall early 2014 there was a big noise made of a chinese company getting the contract to build the appx 5 km kerch strait bridge, supposedly to be ready by either 2017 (that would be fast), or ‘5- 10 years’, depending which source u read.
apparently the russians weren’t impressed by the one the germans built across it in WW II, so they didn’t even get invited to bid.
Among the projects is a 19-kilometer (12-mile) bridge over the Kerch strait that may cost as much as $4.3 billion, according to Russia’s plan. A company affiliated with Putin ally Arkady Rotenberg is about to secure the order, according to a high-ranking government official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the contract hasn’t been officially awarded.
About 95 percent of Crimean businesses will be able to take advantage of a free economic zone, which will be set up January 2015. Companies will be able to bring in goods duty-free for 25 years and small firms will be able to operate tax-free for two years, according to the Ministry of Crimea Affairs.
The legal system in Crimea is scheduled to come into sync with Russian standards by Jan. 1, 2015.
The nuclear accident at Zaporizhzhya NPP has been confirmed and it is still on going. The radiation levels are rising.
ГСЧС Украины подтвердила утечку радиации на Запорожской АЭС (SSES of Ukraine confirmed the radiation leak at the Zaporizhzhya NPP)
“Official reports indicate that the press service of ZNPP hides the truth about the accident in the 6th unit.
Ukrainian nuclear misinformed the public and the media about the real situation at the Zaporizhzhya NPP. Included were summaries of the State service for emergency situations for the 28 and 29 December, which deny certification guide ZNPP that the sixth unit was put into operation on the evening of December 28. In addition, the maximum radiation level at the plant, according to the measurements that were above normal in 16 times.
Both documents addressed to the chief of SSES of Ukraine in Zaporizhzhya region – major-General of the civil protection Service Lepskaya. In summary for December 28, reported that at six in the morning on ZNPP due to damage of the transformer alarm tripped the generator protection system 6-th power.
By 6 a.m. on December 28 at the Zaporizhzhya NPP in the work of the five units (1,2,3,4,5)… 4278 Total power MW radiation background NPP – 4,90 µsv/year., SWAP was 4.76 µsv/year. – 16.3 times higher than the acceptable rate, ” said the summary.
Recall that the press service of the Zaporizhzhya NPP and the representatives of “Energoatom” day on December 28, reported emergency, noting that the radiation background in the sanitary zone around the plant remains normal. Then the head of the Ministry of energy of Ukraine Dmitry Demchyshyn stated that the repair of the unit will take several days.
However, already in the evening of 28 December, the press service of ZNPP reported the completion of repair works and the connection of the emergency unit to the grid.
– December 28, 2014 at 22 h 35 min unit 6 Zaporizhzhya NPP after a fault is connected to the network. The power… – said in a statement on the official site of the NPP. There it was noted that the background radiation in the vicinity of the station corresponds to the natural.
However, the SSES summary for December 29, completely refuted this statement of the atomic scientists. From the document implies that the 6 Monday morning emergency sixth unit was not connected, the total capacity remained at the level of the previous day, and the radiation level in the area of nuclear and radioactive materials (SWAP) increased.
By 6 a.m. on December 29 at the Zaporizhzhya NPP in the work of the five units (1,2,3,4,5)… At 6 am on December 28, the sixth unit is disconnected from the unified energy system… 4278 Total power MW radiation background NPP – of 5.05 mSv/year., SWAP – 4,91 mSv/year. – exceeding 16.8 times, said SSES of Ukraine.
Recall, first of excess background radiation 14 times in the district of Zaporizhzhya NPP on the evening of 28 December, said the Chairman of the people’s Council DND Denis Putilin. He explained leakage attempt Ukrainian nuclear specialists to install on the power rod units manufactured by the American company Westinghouse.”
The article contains copies of both documents.
Saker – beautiful analysis, thanks so much for everything this whole year.
Two small points:
(1) The US miscalculation that Russia needs Ukraine: I would split hairs a little, using your own terms. The real miscalculation was that a superpower is inevitably an empire, which Ukraine automatically makes Russia. The concept that a superpower can simply grow in stature and maintain the same footprint on the planet was not considered. Let’s hope China will learn from this concept. Maybe you have to occupy Russia’s existing land mass to have that luxury, I don’t know.
(2) And the coal, I think is not as small a thing as a delaying tactic. It’s coal from the Donbass, I believe. And presumably the deal requires Ukraine to continue supplying electricity to Crimea until that infrastructure becomes independent. And then there’s the need to keep electricity flowing to cool the nuclear reactors that have started failing. I think Russia was forced into paying for the coal for all these reasons, and the cost is small compared to a nuclear meltdown.
I can’t find any links right now to any of these coal claims. I’ve seen it all in reliable analysis over the last few days, I’m pretty sure. I’ll have to offer it on trust for the moment.
Honestly, disregard my comment with the ZH link. 15000 people out of 12 million in Moscow is nothing. Still believe that it is being used by the 5th column, but I doubt they will be succesful.
Thank you Saker for this very well thought out analysis and my best wishes to you ,your family and all the people that work in the translations and contribute to your blog.
Be well and enjoy some time off,you most assuredly deserve it.
A brilliant tour d’horizon, Saker, for which many thanks.
Paul Rigby, UK
I suspect that to the ordinary non fascist Ukranian the fact that Russia cares more for their welfare than their coup elected leaders will lead towards the downfall of this government. The same applies to the general squaddies who will refuse to fight against superior Russian armed Novarussians. There must surely be a an underground movement of pro Russian Ukranians pushing the line that opting for US EU alignment will end up with the country in much the way it currently is today – totally broke. Whereas alignment with Russia will see the end of the oligarchs and an increasing standard of living.
Thank you again for your most excellent and needed commentary.
One question please. What do you think about employing the many non-military options listed recently by Paul Craig Roberts (see http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/12/29/outlook-new-year-paul-craig-roberts-2/ )? Do you think these would also result in armed conflict, in other words, that they would actually hasten the coming war in Ukraine? Do you not think it would be worth the risk of employing them (stop selling gas to NATO members, withhold payments to EU Central Banks, etc) rather than just wait for the UAF to fully rearm and launch a war?
Tired of chess? Try boxing:
Ali vs Foreman
How depleted is the US — not to mention Kiev? What’s left for them to do? Russia is in better shape now than when this started, despite having to handle some unpleasant financial maneuvers.
Medi will say Russia is stating aggressive wars? Who will believe that if Russia defends Novorossia who matters — not say it, like the clowns in government and media, but believe it? The sheep? What difference will they make, already bleating and milling around? Those who know the score will laugh at such propaganda. What good would it do the empire to put that nonsense out on the air waves? They gonna raise an army to invade Russia? It’s gonna stop the BRICS?
My prediction for next year, as tentative as it must be, is that reality is going to assert itself even more so as the theater performances fail.
Good article so far! — want to read the rest of it.
Love the Ukrainian neo-Communist propaganda posters these poor deluded Ukrainian retards are forcing themselves to swallow. Is this State Dept. backed hate? This can take years before it seeps into the minds of these idiots and successfully transforms them all into Russophobes. By then they might be all frozen or starved to death.
Despite the history, Russia is the only country that ever cared about these numbnuts. The sooner they realize that their phony nationalist boner for Bandera is not only stupid but counterproductive, the sooner that can get off their knees and take the AmeriKan sausage out of their mouths.
I look forward to 2015 and a Ukraine that all but BEGS for forgiveness from Russia to save their slowly fracturing and suicidal province pretending to be a “nation.”
Also I look forward to your continued help in understanding the mountains of lies that seem to be raining down on all of us, all of the time now.
Saker is truly one in a million. I hope I can improve my financial situation somewhat so I can show you my support in deed and not just in mere words.
I tell everyone I know to check you out.
An excellent analysis.
point 7 China…
Sergey Shoigu is Russia’s defence minister born to a Tuvan father and a Russian mother he can speak Russian,Mongolian and Mandarin.
Essential for inter-racial trust and communication.
Can anyone remember seeing US Hercules transports unloading in Iraq?…pallets of 100$ Benjamin Franklins…1 billion dollars a pop,shrink wrapped.
The IMF conditional loan package is only part of the asset strip program,just political theatre.
The CIA station head is on the top floor of the SBU building,hence the US flag out front.
The Hercules transports currently off loading in East Ukraine and elsewhere are doing the same thing ,pallets of weapons and pallets of 100$ Benjamins.
A 100$ FRN(federal reserve note) costs 10 cents to produce That is what FREE money means.
Ukraine can fight the war while their cannon fodder and families experience EU & US benevolence,
Enjoy! stupidity is always expensive.
@ The Vineyard of the Saker
The author of several posters, paperdaemon, is a Russian.
Now, here is some Ukrainian art … http://cs618924.vk.me/v618924167/1ead7/lr-dU46YB9g.jpg
As for the USA, they probably will be able to pretend like nothing big, not big disaster, is happening, if only thanks to the money printing machine and the best propaganda machine in history.
And who owns these facilities. Call a spade a spade. There is another hidden war taking place in terms of priorities, the Chabad-Lubivitchers and the Zionists. For the Chabad’s, it was Crimea which was the most important part of Ukraine (see the Khazar empire and Crimea), Putin beat them to this. The end game is the defeat of their ancient enemies Rus civilisation, Persia.
“The “equation” is simple: if Novorussia can stand up to the Ukrainians and Russia is not forced to intervene, the Nazi regime in Kiev is finished along with the entire Neocon plan against Russia.”
The comma after intervene was missing.
Thanks for the information and your personal example of passionate commitment.
I have been following the saker as far as my wings allow.
Your summary of the summary: “May God protect us all from war!” highlights a higher and deeper dimension to the approaching watershed year.
Your mission is very much of this world but if nothing else, your Orthodox higher perspective is probably always in the background.
As for me, I would personally and idiosyncratically reframe your summary of your summary thus: “May Love protect us all from war!”
I believe she will if we will take at least one step in her direction. We walk a fine line through a mine-field; one of us reaching the other side could spell the difference between a world of war or one of love.
Thanks for going where angels fear to tread.
Looking back in order to comprehend 2015, the Bretton Woods agreement [BWA] can be seen as a weapon.
The BWA was based on using the USDollar because it was GOLD-BACKED/CONVERTIBLE only for int’l trade settlement between sovereign governments/nations.
[US President Roosevelt in 1933 already eliminated the GOLD-CONVERTIBILITY feature for non-government use of the USD.]
When Nixon in 1971 defaulted on the GOLD-BACKED CONVERTIBLE feature for int’l settlements, Bretton Woods was uncreated.
That was clear to any so-called “economist” whose competence was demonstrated by real, measured experience.
A GOLD_BACKED/CONVERTIBLE USD has inherent limits. The fiat USD has no limits on morphing into nothingness due to human nature.
There was no way to miss it except to mis-estimate the gigantic swindle that that was set in motion. A slow-motion, unstoppable global
disaster that is now approaching climax.
To many observers, it was surely unbelievable that diplomats, ambassadors, learned bankers, the privileged “VeryBestPeople” could create such a monster.
How could “they” not know that the entire arrangement depended on GOLD-BACKED CONVERTIBILITY?
And when Nixon eliminated the CONVERTIBILITY, the fuze was lit.
None of the above means there was not a “good reason” or justification for the default on CONVERTIBILITY.
In fact, the act of default enabled the path to global control that now promises to create a unipolar tyrannical oligharchy in-charge of the world.
A coincidence?, that BW’s Achilles Heel, CONVERTIBILITY, could be abrogated to unleash the path to unipolar tyranny? I think not.
The enabling instrument for global tyranny was a reserve-currency backed by nothing [pure fiat] and printable without limit while, as the only reserve-currency, its use became necessity.
Simultaneously it was accepted by the non-printers who realized too late they have little chance of stopping it, and that chance will involve great harm to Mankind and other life forms.
from Rick with hope that the spiritual aspects of life will endure somehow to get life’s nasties sorted-out and handled.
The 2014 End of Year report by The Saker was a finely constructed and informative essay. The essay is the finest Year End Report I have seen (not in decades, ever).
It sums up the excellent work of the finest website.
I have sent the link to my mailing list.
The Russians will preserve the planet, until the Yanks wake up & join the effort.
The economy must be reworked. The next generation must not be burdened by the debts of their ancestors.
The next generation must empower themselves by reworking a human version of government, Democratic Republics – or variations on the theme. Multi-Party, Multi Idea, electoral political culture will allow people to contribute to their own government, and thereby attain their fullest Human stature (free, active, loving, contentious, conscious, educated -not brainwashed- and spiritual to their own tastes).
Franklin Roosevelt’s “Four Freedoms” come to mind. Freedom to worship God in one’s own way, Freedom of speech and expression, freedom from want “which…means economic understandings which will secure to every nation a healthy peace time life for its inhabitants…” and freedom from fear “which…means a world-wide reduction of armaments…”
An economy of capitalism, with 1. ownership of the natural resources vested in the people, and 2. government control of the Banks (and the banking capital $), should be the moral foundations for a balanced prosperity of a people enjoying all their Liberties.
You have my thanks.
Peter J. Antonsen
I tend to doubt that Ukraine will invade the Donbas this coming year, maybe a 10% chance of it happening not 80%. However, Russia and Novorossiya have to plan for that possibility.
IF such an attack does happen and IF Russia is forced to intervene directly it seems unlikely that Russia would stop at just defeating the attacking army. Once Russian troops were openly engaged in combat on Ukrainian soil the geopolitical crisis Russia hopes to avoid will have happened. In that case there is nothing to lose to for Russian troops to continue farther into Ukraine. I suspect they would seize all of the territory on the left bank of the Dniepr River plus the oblasts of Kherson, Odessa and Nikolaev. Central and western Ukraine would not be worth the trouble. Now that swath of territory would make the nation of Novorussiya quite viable.
But to repeat these scenarios seem unlikely. America’s goal in stoking the Ukrainian crisis is to strengthen Nato and to convince the European nations, especially Germany, to increase spending on their military. This seems to be working and there is no need to escalate the crisis to achieve those ends.
Section 6 (A) of the Ukraine Freedom Support Act …
(a) In General- The President is authorized to provide defense articles, defense services, and training to the Government of Ukraine for the purpose of countering offensive weapons and reestablishing the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine
Re-establishing sovereignty seems to mean that the US is equipping Ukraine for war both in the east and in crimea.
Mike said…30 December, 2014 20:18
“The author of several posters, paperdaemon, is a Russian.”
The zionist, Anton Myrzin, is, like all zionist agents in Russia, a Russian only in name. This is the story behind the posters he made:
“…In the autumn of the outgoing 2014 (September-October) I received an offer to participate in the exhibition of the Ukrainian Patriotic poster in the M17 contemporary art center, Kiev, to which I gladly responded, for the production of posters as a hobby and political “vent” I worked quite a long time.
Fully occupying the Pro-Ukrainian position, and also using their inalienable constitutional right to artistic expression, I decided to give the maximum of their capabilities to bring up to a range of target audiences, both Russian and Ukrainian societies certain cultural, social, and finally, the political message through posters…”
In other words, he is one very sick individual, and like most of these zionist tools, doesn’t get it why decent people find him and what he represents to be repulsive beyond measure. The exact sort of freak Israel depends upon to do their bidding all around the world.
Very important info about the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhya NPP nuclear reactor accident, Lifenews is leading with this news story:
ГСЧС Украины подтвердила утечку радиации на Запорожской АЭС (SSES of Ukraine confirmed the radiation leak at the Zaporizhzhya NPP)
“Official reports indicate that the press service of ZNPP hides the truth about the accident in the 6th unit….”
Briefly, the radiation levels are rising, the orks are lying about that and about fixing the problem and restarting. The article includes copies of 2 Ukrainian documents.
I posted a translation of the article a while back, but it hasn’t showed up. This is a repost in case there was a problem in the first posting.
you said “The US would finally have the Cold War v2 it wants so badly,”
so what do you think has been happening all these 3 years if not a hot war let alone cold war 2?
england and its satellite usa and 5 evil eryes are running a waorld war 3 agasint all non anglo nations of the world and only thew victims like russdia, china and india are asleep! what a stupid slave nations!!
my deepest thanks for your endless commitment and the enlightenment you’ve been providing and surely will provide!
Best Wishes, Regards and Love to you all.
Zerohedge has picked up the story and have the translated Lifenews report as part of their material. Unfortunately, the 2 Ukrainian document copies are not translated, though they are reproduced in the ZH article.
Is Ukraine Hiding A Huge Radiation Leak At The Largest Nuclear Power Plant In Europe?
ZH is wrongly talking about 10/15.000 people in Moscow failed(once again)Maidan 2.0
Official stats from Moscow police dept,say around 1500 including a lot of western people, journalists and tv crews..
600 people in St Petersburgh also.
2.100 people for two cities,total population of 18 millions+
Just a joke.
Lot of ukies with their flags were present.And some Polish,Germans..
Not to forget a small number of pro Putin who arrive at the end..
Finaly maybe 500 real Russians anti Putin in Moscow…no big deal.
Of course al MSM are going crazy tonight,check BHL Le Monde for exemple…
The US state dept are deploring the violence of the police and usual human rights blabla…
Coming from CIA/Guantanamo,murderers,war criminals it is almost a compliment.
They should better take care of their own business like in Fergusson or NYPD f e.
still putin allows rosnet to give 10 % share in oil business to BP. the same BP whose chairman the despicable Dudley was reported in a meeting to have plotted overthrow of Putin in Russia one year ago!
either russians are blind or more likely they are stupid loser.
putin did not even threaten cameron with no supply of gas if english insist on blocking SWIFT for the russia!
Saker, Excellent analysis as always. Here is an article describing the base, reptile like, policy of the Kiev regime.
There have been so many tragedies and missed opportunities over the last 650 odd years it is hard know where to begin.
But one of the greatest mistakes was to use the (at that time gold backed) $US as the international trading currency, rather than Keynes proposed Bancor.
If we had goner down that route then the massive trade imbalances would never have happened. The huge volumes of foreign currency speculation would not have been possible. The movement of capital ever seeking a ‘race to the bottom’ on wages would not have been possible either.
In just about every way the world’s economies would have been better off.
And the US would have been severely limited in its ‘foreign adventures’, because the money would not have been there to afford it.
I don’t see Russia’s being able industry to reform itself that fast. OTOH I am a bit more optimistic about at least some EU countries trying to de escalate things with Russia. My money is rather on no assault in Ukraine, Russia fighting anti russian trends by being obviously helpful to Ukrainian in need (the very obvious reason for the coal move IMHO), and everyone watching everyone while indeed Russia’s keep on turning more and more from west to east. This because this report while counting what the Empire already lost tends to miss what more it can lose. The EU tools of control for EU zone is falling apart. If Kiev fails and falls its assault the fallout may be terminal for the empire. EU will wake up to the “all of this for that”, contemplating hard losses in dire times, and that will have some negative impact on the 5th column we have here. Cooperation needed by the US will become harder and harder to get by. Also you may not realise it but a good deal of EU elite actually consider themselves at economic war with the US, not the Russia. At a time those guys will hit back and take strong position would it only be to defend their own interests.
Sorry, a lot of gut feeling here, I usually don’t do that. I don’t see a new assault happen in Novorussia. A bit like when Western opinion wasn’t shifted toward agression over Syria even when TV aired hundreds of dead kids bodies, there is a timing for those things and if you delay too much the propaganda general feeling become “this is a mixed bags with lies everywhere” and it becomes impossible to get any opinion behind a war, even for one day. I don’t think you can try a “Kiev II: the Revenge” in term of propaganda war.
That being said if there’s a nazi coup in Kiev I expect western media to support it (at least not attack it) and then God knows where this all end up.
Is it true that Merkel announced last week that some treaty obligations of NATO will not be honoured by Germany?
If yes, that’s one hell of a game-changer…
Another thing, the same source (Jim Willie) claims that Germany did not wish to participate in the NATO military build up in Ukraine and that there are even French and German undercover soldiers fighting alongside Novorussians.
Russia to supply coal to Ukraine without prepayment – Ukrainian ministry (December 27)
Ukraine ready to buy coal from Donbas — Poroshenko (December 29)
“Ukraine’s authorities are ready to buy coal from territories in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, that are beyond their control, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Monday.”
“Also, he said Ukraine would buy coal in Russia. ‘We have a possibility to buy coal in Russia, regrettably, for convertible currency,’ he noted, adding that whatever fuel — coal, gas or oil-gas mixture — would be used, Ukraine would have to import it and hence pay in hard currency.”
Another excellently written article. I especially liked the videos with accompanying English Subtitles.
Have a Happy New Year and best wishes for a peaceful death of the Petro-Dollar.
In fact, right now there is no such ambassador or spokesman for Novorussia in Russia, nobody to make the Novorussian case in front of the Russian public opinion. I don’t think that this is a good thing, but that is the reality.
I’ve often had the same thought myself. Novorossiya needs a political spokesman or group. The IRA had Sinn Fein, Hezbollah has Hassan Nasrallah–you know what I mean. Do you think Elena Bondarenko could do this?
“geopolitical Conchita Wurst”
Brilliant! That really paints a picture.
In a way, we could say that the EU is run by a Soviet-style nomenklatura which lives in complete detachment from the rest of the European people in a kind of US-built ivory tower high above the common people.
Exactly. EU/NATO is the new Warsaw Pact. The countries of the Euro-peon Union are now just ‘fraternal capitalist allies’!
What has happened is truly a tectonic geopolitical shift: two empires have decided to join together while remaining sovereign and independent. To my knowledge this has never happened in history and Putin and Xi have already changed the course of history by this monumental decision.
What about the Austro-Hungarian Empire? Wouldn’t that also be an example of the same thing?
Anyway, Saker, thanks for all your hard work in 2014. Have a great new year! I look forward to following you in 2015…
This is the article about Donbass coal (officially Russian coal) going to Ukraine.
Russian troops invaded the Ukraine – Российские войска вторглись на Украину
That KV-2 turret with mechanical legs is class. :D The video is done like that hilarious video about the Russian spy caught in the Ukraine. Remember?
But unfortunately, no English subtitles on the Russia invades video.
I have to say, I’m a little surprised that nowhere in this report do you mention the Eurasian Economic Union, which has come together “behind the scenes” in 2014 while everyone’s attention was focused on Ukraine, adding two new members to its ranks (Armenia and Kyrgyzstan), and improving relations with Uzbekistan and Georgia.
In Georgia, the society and government seem to be gradually losing their russophobic elements (many of them have migrated to Ukraine instead, as a result of which Georgia’s relations with Ukraine are not great): http://reconsideringrussia.org/2014/12/24/keeping-georgia-balanced/
I think it is critical that Putin’s been working overtime to improve relations with countries around the periphery, not just with China.
As usual a very lucid and powerful analysis. But I fear the falcon has missed a part of the Vineyard.
Syria should have been included in this analysis.There are many hard days coming for Russia – and her allies!. The empire can strike in many places at the same time.
The empire may choose to strike in the Ukraine. But there are many advantages to leaving Ukraine boiling at a slow rate. And instead humiliating Russia by destroying the Assad government a la Gaddafi.
This would solve Europe’s dependence on Russian gas by allowing a Qatar-Syria-Turkey pipeline. With Turkey’s defection to Russia, I feel the empire has no choice but to destroy Assad in order to bring Turkey back into the fold. This a battle that will test Assad, Putin and the heroic SAA to the limit!
The other crucial part of the vineyard is the ‘stans. Particularly the CSTO members. The empire is likely to try its set of colors over there. I would love to see Saker’s analysis of how susceptible they are to color coded revolutions in 2015.
Making Enemies America Can’t Afford: Congress Votes More Sanctions on Russia
A hostile government in Washington funding anti-Putin groups in Moscow can only be seen by Russian authorities as an attempt to overthrow their government. They should be expected to respond accordingly — against not only Washington, but any organizations funded by Washington. Turning NGOs, both American and foreign, into tools of U.S. foreign policy inevitably makes them targets.
Upping aid to Kiev will work little better. Ukraine is a financial black hole. Corruption and illiberal policies long have held the country back economically. Foreign financial transfers will offer little benefit without reform, which continues to lag. The cost of war, including the disruption of commerce, is equally high. Without peace, Ukraine will remain economically backward and financially dependent on others.
Washington cannot afford to take on another bankrupt client state. The U.S. already faces hundreds of trillions of dollars in unfunded liabilities and Congress has not demonstrated the slightest ability to get America’s debts under control. If anyone is going to take on Kiev as a fiscal dependent, it should be Europe, which is not only closer geographically, but has far greater hope of economic gain from future trade and investment.
Once Nazi, today Natoist
As always it is interesting to read Saker and much of his basic analysis is right, for example the strength of the russian military.
But there is some wishful thinking too, alas. And I do NOT agree that it would be a mistake from Russia to liberate all of Novorossia (all 8 regions + Transniestria). This should be done immediately! Nato/USA will not attack Russia to save the Kiev Nazis (because of the very same reasons stated about russian military strength), especially if Russia only liberates Novorossia and all land east of the Dnepr. The rest can remain Banderastan. Russia does not need that part (western “Ukraine”)and people there are nazified. Russia only needs Novorossia, the rest can go to hell.
@Seamus Padraig: Do you think Elena Bondarenko could do this?
Very interesting that you should mention her. Yes, she is quite an amazing (and courageous!) person and, most interestingly, she is often critical of Russia and she defends a purely Ukrainian point of view which, while friendly to Russia, is not Russian. She was also an elected representative from the Donbass. She is young, very smart and very charming. Her main weakness is that she is not part of the Novorussian resistance and that is a huge weakness for her. Still, he is slowly changing her tune on that and she is definitely the smartest of the group of very good-looking and sharp Ukrainian woman who could play a role in the “post-Banderastan” Ukraine of the future. I am seriously considering dedicating a full post to her sometimes next year.
Still, it would be best if Novorussia was represented by a person coming out of the Resistance, not by an “opposition” politician. I just don’t see such a person right now, but he/she could emerge rapidly as there are plenty of capable people in the Resistance.
What a fantastic video of the armed forces…I’m speechless.
God, that Kolomoisky video is repulsive…
Kolomoyskiy is a creature from hell and there he will return.
OH! I loved the analysis, in the best style The Saker that keeps me here so many months…..
Also the videos, including that of the armed forces, what a complete report! Here in Spain we know nothing of what the hell make our armed forces, well yes, the defense minister, as a good businessman, sends vests and helmets to the Nazis in Ukraine, that yes, without consulting the public.
As you say Saker, they are still raving in their ivory tower until fall and take the smack of the century.
Thank you very much for the report to all who participated.
ENJOY in company with whom you want, and we´ll be together next year….fighting…I guess…but without fear.
Happy new year!
Urte berri on!
Hugs and kisses to all!
Besarkadak eta musuak guztiei!
re: End of Year/next year/ There will be a two pronged attack against Russia in the spring with simultaneous attacks on Ukraine and Syria/Iran. It appears that quietly Lavrov has been stabilizing the “stans “–he was MIA for several weeks in the summer and various agreements and tightening of relationships have been occurring all along. The attack on Chechnya was a probe.
Let us not be naive. when things are “too crazy to correct” then you “go for broke”.and do you all remember Gen Westmorland’s ” We had to destroy it in order to save it”..?
I still remember a WSJ article chortling about how Cherynobyl disaster was so expensive that it was the final burden that broke the Soviet system. They are insane and always have been these plutocrats and their sycophants.
Saker, sorry but I was wondering about the blockade of the last humanitarian convoy…did anyone hear anything?
I finished it. I never have a problem reading your articles Saker. I’ve sent it on to a couple of people and man, I wish I could write like that.
I thought when you mentioned the end of the year report yesterday that it was be…next week.
God bless and see you next year !!!!
Saker, appearances are deceiving. If you watched the Godfather II, you may recall that Don Corleone realized that it was Don Barzini who masterminded the hit on Sonny Corleone.
Likewise, things are not what they seem. What we are watching unfolding is not an Anglo war on Russia but on China’s ambitions. You must remember that it was China the nation that first proposed a new silk road from Shanghai to Lisbon.
You ought to remember that H. Clinton wanted to reset with Russia and pivot to Asia. The cart’s wheels for the pivot to Asia became unhinged with the delay in regime change in Syria. But Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine were already in the works to delay the Eurasian integration.
Your analysis makes sense except that you have focused too much on Russia when the real objective of the Empire is to contain China. This is already failing.
I agree with your last sentence. You are correct!
I believe only God can save us from the anglo Zionist that has control of so much of the world.
Carmel by the Sea
I NEED subtitles for Russian Armed Forces Report 2014.
PLEASE Saker can you upload somewhere separately.
Thank you very much.
US, NATO Unwilling to Raise Tensions With Russia: Pentagon
“Pentagon spokesperson said that Washington and NATO are not seeking confrontation with Russia…”
Yesterday an EU microbe said essentially the same and Obama also ran with a similar line.
The night Georgia invaded South Ossetia, “tie eater” came out and assured the those people he only wanted peace in a specially broadcast speech. Keep that in mind when listening to these Ami and EU quislings’ “peace” overtures. Sounds like a new increase in hostilities is planned to soon come on line. The ziofascists tend to stick to using the same tactics.
Very interesting. A few minor observations to consider:
Geography should keep the Crimea safe, no matter what happens in Novorussia. The Perekop isthmus is too narrow to conduct an offensive across, and the western crossing, were the railroad line between Melitipol and Dzhankoy crosses, is much narrower still.
Note that the Russian armed forces are still only about 90% manned, up 5% from 2013, meaning they are still about 10% unmanned. In exercises they are complemented by calling up individual reservists, each at least two years after discharge (when the cannot be recalled). From photos of the Far East exercise, many reservists are well into their 30’s.
You definitely left out a very important player…hint juland. Here’s a clue: Which country thinks it has a right to Ukraine, or a part of it? A bit cryptic, but most should get it.
Hi ! Ann,
I was looking at some old posts and saw one of yours asking me about a Putin video link…do you remember which one it was? Maybe I can find it & give you the link.
Most sincere apologies I never saw that post of your directed to me until today.
Carmel by the Sea –one of the biggest admirers of Putin the Great
Whatever happened to Russia’s move to Linux? It should be completed by 2015 as per Putin?
The NAF is a revolutionary force, but the bottom line is, they are the front line of Russian defense too. The more the Ukraine/US Nazis attempt, the stronger they will become and the farther they will go. I don’t think Russia will have to engage regular forces, it will all be done via the NAF. And if the Nazis go a little too far, they will lose Odessa, then Kiev.
МИД РФ: Чернобыльская трагедия ничему не научила киевкие власти (Russian foreign Ministry: the Chernobyl tragedy did not teach Kievka power)
“…The Russian foreign Ministry has expressed serious concern about the haste with which the Ukrainian government signed a contract for the procurement of nuclear fuel the American company Westinghouse for use in nuclear power plants of Russian design. Diplomats said that this neglect of nuclear security is a threat not only Ukraine, but also throughout Europe.
– Fuel assemblies produced by the company, has repeatedly demonstrated non-compliance to the quality of fuel for VVER-1000 reactor, said in a statement the foreign Ministry. The experiment started, Kiev, jeopardizes the safety and health of Ukrainian citizens and the peoples of Europe. It seems that the lessons of the Chernobyl tragedy is not taught Kyiv authorities responsible and evidence-based approach to the use of nuclear energy.
The foreign Ministry explained that the loading of the American fuel in the reactors of Soviet and Russian design requires modernization, which, as experience shows, it is extremely insecure and has repeatedly led to the emergency.
– Attempts (fuel Westinghouse – approx. ed) use in the Czech nuclear power plant Temelin has led to a serious incident. Download this fuel to Ukrainian nuclear power plants also resulted in a series of incidents, ” the statement says. “Now we can talk about large-scale experiment, could have very serious accident.
Political commitment of the Ukrainian authorities when choosing a supplier of fuel for nuclear power plants, prevails over the nuclear safety requirements. In fact, the security of the population is given for the sake of political ambition, and can be, as noted in the foreign Ministry, and other “tangible” interest. The consequences of accidents and the responsibility for them will fall entirely on the leadership of Ukraine and Westinghouse…”
But looking at it from the POV of those in charge of creating these potential Chernobyls, Eastern Europe is a long way from both Tel Aviv and New York (this lot viewed Chernobyl as a God send, if they did not in fact sabotage it). As for the orc quislings, they never intended to retire in the Ukraine, anyways.
Please consider that the coal offer for Ukraine is Russia just trying to prevent an humanitarian disaster of epic magnitude.
I think Russia believe that Kiev junta can’t and won’t last long, and after some turnmoil the country will end up with a more reasonable leadership.
However, if there is massive death rate due to coal and energy shortage, current Ukies will have their “Holomodor 2.0” to blame on Russian.
So in fact, this might be a move to avoid insulting the future.
Very good stuff, the videos, the article and the status quo.
In 2015, the test for Russia is to control the Syrian war, get Iran off nukes (which would change everything in Syria, Iraq,Turkey and with Russia), and continue to work both the carrot and stick with the mind of Ukrainian people (those who still have a mind). I’m betting 30% of them already don’t want any war of any kind. By Spring it will be 40% or more.
NATO may want a war to happen, but they don’t want it to happen to themselves. They are itching to move the equipment and men leaving Afghanistan to Ukraine.
There it will become target practice for Russia. NATO will lose a thousand men and a thousand vehicles so fast, they will think they are in the Ukrainian military.
A war in 2015 will last no more than 72 hours. Whatever is within fifty miles of Donetsk and Lugansk will be cinder if it isn’t Russian/militia.
You cannot imagine a ground war of any size without control of the air. Russia will control the air.
You cannot imagine NATO controlling the air without Russia being nuked first.
You cannot imagine Russia being nuked without the incineration of East and West Europe and most of the US.
So imagine the war in Ukraine again. Russia controls the air. There is no way to take that down, less nukes are used.
It’s a vicious circle. Russia has the air superiority and defenses for it.
NATO loses on a ground war, an air war or a nuke war.
Play it over and over and over. Putin cannot be defeated by military means of any kind.
Russia’s one weakness is what we are seeing. Currency, oil exports and a government half full of traitors.
The war on the ground will finish off the government traitors. Putin will sweep them up under war powers act of some sort.
So, bring on the war. Novorossiya gets bigger, Ukies are wiped out, NATO gets its ass kicked, and the US cries in its beer.
Syria and Iran. That’s the diplomatic test for Putin, and we know Lavrov and he are working on it.
It is a tricky war for Assad. And at some point Assad may have to step down. In January there are meetings in Moscow. We may get a sense of what the future will be.
Watch and listen for sounds from Beijing on this matter. China wants Iraq stabilized and Syria is key. If China works with Iran and Russia, then the calculus changes. I believe that will come about.
China has a little experience sticking its nose and money into the South Sudan war. I think it will give it a try in Syria next. This is how Russia and China will muscle out the US from its wars of chaos.
They will be working the Pakistan-Afghanistan war together also.
Watch for developments along these lines. Chaos may continue, but the Russia-China moves are going to put a lot of chaos back in the bottle.
And don’t feel sorry for the Hegemon. The sicko still has Yemen and North Africa in its drone sights. The Hegemon, AFRICOM and NATO can cause all kinds of misery from Djibouti to Morocco.
Here’s a brilliant piece from Nikolay Starikov that Kristina Rus just translated and published. It fits right in with Saker’s analysis:
Ukraine was Conceived as Anti-Russia, Just Like Pakistan was Anti-India
Starikov explains how Ukraine is intended to be the “anti-Russia” that starts a senseless war to kill the maximum number of people on both sides, following the traditional pattern of UK and US.
The NAF stands in the way of this happening. All emotions aside, he says, we have to accept that this is the bitter realpolitik:
“As soon as DPR and LPR separate from Ukraine, this whole American scheme begins to work. Therefore DPR and LPR (and I risk to say something unpopular) for the interests of Russia and the entire Russian world (and we have the same interests) has to one way or another remain inside Ukraine’s borders – it is a weight on the foot of Ukraine, which prevents Ukraine from being sucked into a war with Russia.”
Looks like there’s a video of this also, only in Russian at the moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVp9-r-XDwA
Looks like Ukraine junta is using industrial sabotage against their own nuclear power plants to blackmail Russia (and Europe) into supplying them with coal and electricity to keep things cool. Very clever. The Elites are very clever too, using Conchita Wurst freak shows to keep the masses distracted while they build their gigantic underground cities like the one under DIA to hide in when disaster strikes. Her Majesty bought some property just outside DIA a couple years ago, like She doesn’t already own half the country.
IMO, Russia has been tempered in its support of Donbas by the constraint of the SCO charter, which rejects separatism in all its forms.
As we’ve heard from the Chinese, Crimea was a special circumstance. Depending on what happens, egregious enough circumstances could allow for an exception to be made regarding Novorossia.
Putin, as we have seen, will only act lawfully and within agreed-upon norms established with Russia’s partners.
Any overt Russian action will be with the assent of its fellow SCO members.
You have rewritten and redesigned the board game “Risk”
One factor you have not taken into consideration is the Poltava Factor. (Referring to the 1709 Battle of Poltava)
Ukrainians will not fight against Russia. Conscription will be problematic. The Banderites will not be able to muster a fighting army or control a growing uprising
Poroshenko had to pull back because not only was he losing the battle he could not fight the growing opposition to the war in Ukraine.
The finding of MH17 are crucial to this outcome. Any delay in the report is designed to buy time. But as we are seeing details of the investigation will leak, (Wikileaks where are you)
Poroshenko has to move fast. The cessession of Crimea and the non particp[ation of Donbass has given Poroshenko a false and misleading electoral lead. The 25% of Ukraine that did not vote was from trh Russian speaking population. Poroshenko and Yatseniuk would not have had a majority in the Parliament had they voted. Their goal now is to push through Constitutional reform while they can command a majority of they low turn-out and they are able to impose repressive control against their opposition.
Under Ukraine’s Constitution amendments require 2/3rd vote support of the Parliament and certain sections, not all, require a referendum.
The so called non alignment policy may require Constitutional/referendum endorsement. This is only possible if South Eastern Ukraine is denied participation.
The 45% turnout Last October was the lowest participation rate in the history of Ukraine. It allows Eastern Ukraine to command a perceived majority. Something the US is keen to try and achieve to help sell its position to the world.
Time is running out and the US knows it, The MH17 investigation is a ticking bomb as is the state of the EU economy.
He must hold thd referendum before the hard measures of Austerity and sanction fall out really bites.
c novim godom
Very long, but worth to watch,very optimisitc future
Happy New year to everyone
As always a great analysis of the events.I only have one comment on it.I don’t understand why if pushed into war by a junta attack Russia would not finish the junta off and free all Ukraine.The US and EU wouldn’t lessen the sanctions.Or lesson the Russophobic propaganda either way.If Russia invaded Ukraine to save Novorossiya or Crimea from attack, in the West it would be the same whether she overthrew the junta or just defeated their army and stopped.Whereas without finishing the job Russia would just give the junta the ability to consolidate power and make Banderastan even more Russophobic than it is now.They would certainly get brought into NATO and be even more of a threat to Russia in the future.By finishing off the junta and liberating Ukraine,then setting up a non-fascist Ukrainian government the threat would be ended.There are many people in the occupied areas only waiting for liberation to turn on the fascists.And with those people and the NAF I don’t see Russian troops needing to stay in Ukraine long.The Ukrainians can do their own housecleaning once the junta military is defeated.Right now because of the propaganda Ukrainians are subjected to 24/7 (and many have been for years) it will take a generation to clear out fascism from Ukraine.But the sooner that is started the quicker it can be done.Just as there came along a Kadyrov to solve the situation in Chechnya, there will be found a Ukrainian Kadyrov to solve Ukraine’s troubles (I would suggest General Raban might possibly be that man).Up until the massive propaganda assault in Ukraine almost 90% had a positive opinion of Russia according to polls.Not its still by the last poll 48%.I believe without the Russophobic propaganda constantly blaring.And in fact with a pro-Russian propaganda campaign started those figures can be retrieved.As we see from our own MSM most people will believe what the media tells them.Stopping the anti-Russian message,and starting the pro-Russian message is the key to saving Ukraine for the Russian World.And ending this threat to Russia.
anon, ; “
still putin allows rosnet to give 10 % share in oil business to BP. the same BP whose chairman the despicable Dudley was reported in a meeting to have plotted overthrow of Putin in Russia one year ago!
either russians are blind or more likely they are stupid loser.
putin did not even threaten cameron with no supply of gas if english insist on blocking SWIFT for the russia!”
Anon, I can understand your anger and grief, but honestly, if you were in Putin’s seat…there would be total chaos…
I’m not clear where this nuclear plant is ? Who is going to be the first victims of radiation ?
Carmel !! I have a funny thing to tell you…I’ve made a wonderful friend in the past month…A Russian lady, living in the US for a couple of decades…she was surprised to meet a North American who feels strongly that Putin is a great man…and yet…yesterday she confessed she has a crush on him too….so funny….men do too…
Putin is a great person, so humble somehow. And genuine.
We’re lucky he was born and has been given this role.