I parsed some info source and I can offer a few quick reactions to what is taking place. The operation is bigger than what I had predicted. However, I STILL don’t believe that Russia wants to invade the Ukraine.
Let’s first see what Russia has already done using ONLY HER STANDOFF WEAPONS:
- The Ukrainian air defenses have ceased to exist
- The Ukrainian air force has ceased to exist
- The Ukrainian navy has ceased to exist
- The Ukrainian command and control are severely disrupted with many command posts destroyed
- All the military airfields in the Ukraine are now not operational
- Numerous supply dumps of ammo, petroleum and lubricants have been destroyed.
- Russia controls the entire Ukie airspace and all the Ukie coastal waters in the Black and Azov seas.
Next, let’s see what LDNR and Russian forces are, apparently, doing right now:
- The LDNR forces have broken through the Ukie defenses in two locations and have penetrated 7-10km behind the LOC.
- These forces advanced with fire support from Russia
- The Ukie forces have built fortifications for 8 years, so the progress against the bulk of the Ukie ground forces is slow. HOWEVER
- It appears that the Russian have decided to encircle the entire Ukronazi force on the Donbass by a pincer movement from the north and south
It is my opinion that Russia will encircle the Ukie forces, the entire Ukrainian force along the LOC and then wait for them to surrender thereby minimizing losses on both sides. In other words, the Russians are trying to lock the Ukies in an operational cauldron and basically remove these forces from the equation.
Second, Putin has clearly stated the Russian goals: demilitarize and denazify the Ukraine.
The first element, disarmament, is already well under way.
The denazification implies some kind of regime change. There are reports of Russian forces near Kiev and I believe that a “hunt for Nazis” will be conducted in one way or another.
Interestingly, the Russians have totally surrounded the city of Kharkov, but have not moved in (yet). This makes perfect military sense, but it also signals, or so it seems to me, that Russia wants to avoid as much as can be to get involved in offensive combat operations in big cities and also wants to avoid killing civilians. Mind you, the military which could take Grozny in 2000 can *easily* and *quickly* storm any Ukie city (if only because Ukies and Chechens are almost polar opposites in terms of their combat abilities). But why do through the bother?
When possible, the Russian will surround the Ukie cities, blockade them and wait for the white flags to appear.
Whether that is possible or not I can’t tell, and what will happen to Mariupol next will be interesting: this time, yes, the city shall be liberated, but it will be interesting to see how much resistance the LDNR/Russian forces will encounter.
BTW – does anybody now about any webcams/geocams for Mariupol?
Basically, this 08.08.08 on a much larger scale: move in, disarm, withdraw.
My guesses (not more, it is waaaay too early to tell!) is that:
- The Ukie forces along the LOC will be surrounded and neutralized. Once that goal in achieved, most of the Ukrainian ground threat will simply disappear. True Nazis will be shot, the rest disarmed and sent home. Their weapons will go to the LDNR.
- LDNR and Russia forces will advance deep inside the Ukraine, but only to execute specific missions, after which they will be pulled back to the legal border of the LDNR (with a few exception possible for specific, local reasons).
- The Ukronazi leadership will run away and Kabul like scenes are possible. Some will be caught.
The Nazi regime in Kiev will be regime changed to some other regime which will accept a Russian ceasefire and the opening of direct negotiations with both the LDNR and Russia. Eventually, a general ceasefire will be proclaimed.
I still think that a NATO (Polish?) ground operation into the Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk regions is likely. Officially to “protect our allies and friends” but in reality with two goals:
- Save face
- Establish a mini-Banderastan under Polish control in western Ukraine
- Feed the hyena of Europe
The Kremlin might think otherwise, but I don’t have a problem with that as long as a semi-civilized and semi-sane regime is put in power in Kiev.
There will be elections, of course, which nobody in the West will initially recognize. That’s fine. Nobody in Russia cares about Uncle Shmuel or his Eurorodents.
Now Biden (I forced myself to listen to him, again!) is aping Obama and promises that sanctions from hell will cripple Russia. Bernhard, at Moon of Alabama, made an interesting comment today: “The Russian stock market is down but gold, oil and gas are up and Russia has so far lost zero money“. I am sure that he is correct.
And, yes, in the short to mid term, sanctions will also have some negative effects on some sectors of the Russian economy. However, in the mid to long term I think that energy costs will provide Russia with a real windfall of money. At the Russian SC meeting, Mishustin appeared to be fully relaxed, focused and calm.
Besides, as I mentioned yesterday, the recent surge in energy prices over the past month have already refunded Russia all the money invested into NS2, and that is BEFORE the (inevitably upcoming) lawsuits against Germany :-)
In a recent post I “recognized” both President Biden and Chancellor Scholtz for doing everything in their power to force Russia to intervene.
Today I want to recognize the truly immense contribution of “Ze” himself, and the Nazi nutcases around him. He was the first to mention that Banderastan wanted to acquire nuclear weapons. The Nazi nutcases in the Ukie regime and social media immediately picked up this truly “brilliant” idea.
I want to sincerely thank “Ze” specifically for:
- Forcing the Russian to intervene (Nazi and nukes are a bad combo in any Russian’s mind!)
- Giving them a legal basis to do so under Art. 51 of the UN Charter
Frankly, “Ze” did a lot for Russia, and I think that Putin should let him flee to the West. But the one guy I want to see in handcuffs and tried in Odessa is Aleksei Goncharenko.
Yeah, I did say in Odessa, didn’t I?
Which brings me to one more possibility: Russia cannot leave the Ukie Black Sea coast under any kind of Nazi or pro-NATO control. Hopefully, the next regime in power in Kiev can deal with that, and Russia can help if needed. But if not, I think that the Black Sea Fleet might have to conduct the operations needed to make sure that no part of the Black Sea coast is ever used to threaten Russia again.
I would MUCH prefer if the Ukrainian people themselves cleaned their own house. But if they can’t, then, okay, Russia can help as long as her intervention is temporary.
In fact, I would categorically oppose any longterm Russian intervention in the Ukraine beyond the LDNR. I don’t think that it will happen anyway. But a short term denazification operation might be unavoidable and I accept that.
Putin had no good option left. Russia, as a nation, had no good options left. So they chose the “least bad option” possible. So far, I like what I see very much.
But while the initial standoff strikes are now mostly over, it will take time to liberate, disarm and stabilize the LDNR and the Ukrainian territories adjacent to it.
Also, I can’t imagine the CIA/MI6/Bellincat/CNN and the rest of them not executing at least ONE major false flag of some kind. Not because that will change anything, but because that is what they are (kinda) good at.
Last, and very deliberately least, its over for the EU. The EU was always a US colony, but now it will sink to a new low with Europeans losing any remnants, however tiny, of self-respect they might have retained. From now on, the EU is Uncle Shmuel’s punkass bitch (forgive the profanity, but that is what fits best in my opinion). All I can say about that is this: those who have no self-respect cannot expect to be respected by others.
That’s it on my end.
Your turn now.