A Freeze in the Conflict? Or Just A Pause (Gonzalo Lira) 28272 Views November 12, 2022 Speeches, Statements and Interviews The Saker The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts Order Now The Essential Saker III: Chronicling The Tragedy, Farce And Collapse of the Empire in the Era of Mr MAGA Order Now Tagged Gonzalo Lira
Gonzalo should be careful with the personal name calling, best remain subjective/objective on the tos and fros of the war, otherwise, the gestapo come knocking. Maybe a month’s break in Crimea, even permanent.
To say Gonzalo appears to be fraying at the edges would be kind, and someone close to him should have a heart to heart. Even soldiers are rotated every quarter or so. Ideally, he’d just get on his bike, but I suppose it’s a Great Escape, Steve McQueen job we’re talking there.
I agree that name-calling is not a good idea. “Pig”? Not good. “Nazi” OK. Because the Banderites ARE Nazis and proud of it. I don’t think Gonzalo is “fraying at the edges” though. He’s just talking off the cuff. He’ll be fine. He has too high a profile for the Zelensky regime to make an example of him. Their propaganda handlers won’t let them, keeping in mind that at this moment their entire effort is built on a storyline created for American TV. In this video Gonzalo is right on. I write mostly on strategy, recently mostly military but also economic, social and political. Russian strategy is pragmatic and situationally aware in all aspects. A “freeze” at this point is a.) unnecessary to their goals b.) likely to yield poor results. The only ‘freeze” that matters, as G says is the ground freezing and the UAF frozen in static positions, sitting ducks. When the Russians are ready, they will strike — and strike hard. .https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/kherson-the-defeat-that-wasnt
Chain smoking on a balcony while on air, looking like a bum, screams fraying jm.
I’m saying what I see, a slow train wreck. I love the dude!
“He has too high a profile for the Zelensky regime to make an example of him.”
I dunno about that. Who knows who he is outside of here and a couple of other blogs? He could be disappeared and the vast majority wouldn’t know of it.
We all need to understand this…
Here’s Col. Douglas Macgregor from Nov. 11 explaining the history of Taiwan and China and that area
“A Freeze in the Conflict? Or Just A Pause ”
Gonzalo Lira, I have massive respect for you – re how you do your videos.
I have the technical skils to do what you do, re kit, but not the courage nor skills nor self confidence to do what you do. If I had been a musician or stand up comedian – then maybe, but I ain’t
I love this blog. I guess a Greek man or girl is running it. (Aletho) I dunno, but our kids were lucky enough to come on holiday with mum and dad, and explore not just the Greek Islands – but the Museum in Thesalanika
I just couldn’t believe the quality of the very fine gold
The Museum in Thesalanika, blew my mind away. even more Than The British Museum….
So I wrote this today – nowt special – in fact I don’t why I bother, except my wife is home now – telling me everything like she does…looking like the girl she is – her dress covered in stars.
A bit of ag down the pub, which did not last very long. No one had any guns or knives. No violence. No one hurt. This is England, not the USA.
The blokes chucked them out – then the police came round – but all the lunatics had gone…
Bill, Whilst I completely agree (never got quite as far as Australia), I love the sea, and sailing – my son ended up with a sailing boat – cos his customer wouldn’t pay.
“But who, in their right mind, would pay for a cruise that includes regular testing for covid and mask wearing? Hardly my idea of a good time.”
I have never taken a covid test, and only wore a mask for 4 hours in a UK NHS A&E – where they saved my life.
The idea of going on a Cruise Ship, unable to escape for days, if not weeks, seems even worse than booking yourself into a mental hospital, or even being arrested and going to jail.
I have seen “One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest”, but never fancied it myself.
“Do any of you think we are over-reacting?”
Well, Todd Hayen My mum was very much a cinema buff, she used to take me to see all the films – in the big screens in Oldham and Manchester – very much like my Wife – film buff goes to all the arts cinemas
So today (she only been to a funeral on Thursday), another friend died, close to one of our best friends we regularly meet at music events. She wouldn’t tell us who. We know where she lives and my wife who is really nice, brought her some nice flowers – and gifts and stuff which girls do for each other. Its just a normal thing to do.
I am not saying this is another jab victim, but the frequency of deaths of people we personally know, is far beyond what is normal – even for people of our ages.
So I was kind of in an internet discussion – Australian based…and I mentioned the film, I hadn’t seen since around 1963…
The problem is They are doing it for real now. across the entire planet.
They never admitted me, but several members of my family, when I was a little boy, who I used to visit on my way to the football match (Oldham Athletic). ECG actually worked on my Dad. He couldn’t remember all his “sins”, before he met my Mum. (Catholic Religion – don’t wear a condom)
So I typed in the words “One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Next” and watched the entire film for free, without any adverts or breaks. in Full HD and Stereo
Possibly the best film I have seen since 1963.
Both hilarious, and deeply sad
Tony & Wife (London – England)
The Americans think they control us.
But they do not control me, nor my wife..
She would eat them and spit them out for Breakfast
The USA attacked Europe – Bombed The Pipelines – and Blamed Liz Truss..
So Now, everyone who has still got a brain hates all Americans
Who actually wants to travel to the USA now????
Most of the rest of the world including The Russians are normal – with husbands and wives, and if blessed Children and Grandchildren like me
Why are The Americans attacking us?
What more do these ignorant American bastards want?
It’s a pause while waiting for the freeze. After it freezes a white tsunami will slam into the Ukrainian military. It reminds me of the retreat from Moscow and subsequent Kursk.
I liked this video very much. It was succinct and objective. I am very much in agreement about this is the time of ´ducks´ getting lined up.
I don’t see it as a freeze nor a pause just a tactical move. Russia has complete the objectives in the area of the southern Donbas likings unto the holding of the area in the north around Kiev for a time to achieve the goals in the Southeast Donbas. Just my thoughts.
RT covers the NYT times joke of the day
US expects Ukrainian conflict to stall during winter – NYT
The pause in the fighting could last for at least six months, senior Biden administration officials have told the paper
The US believes Russia’s military operation in Ukraine is going to slow down significantly during the upcoming winter, senior Biden administration officials have told the New York Times.
Washington expects advances by each side to come to a halt, the paper reported on Saturday.
According to the unnamed officials, the “weather-enforced pause” in the conflict could continue for up to six months.
Lower temperatures and frozen ground would make it easier for tanks and trucks to move around, but, according to the NYT, heavy snows and cold weather would still complicate mounting an offensive for the Russian forces.
Its clear loco joe has not studied the Red army,they launched more than one winter offensive.
I found it interesting that the same day it was reported that Putin would not attend the G20, it was also reported that Russia was withdrawing from Kherson city.
Zelensky and the West had been pushing hard for a win before the G20. Now they have something to crow about. Russia is playing rope a dope.
It will not be long before the West eats that crow. I wouldn’t be surprised if something happened while the G20 is going on. However, in the mean time, Russia is sucking the life out of Western economies.
You really have to admire Russia’s patience.
Here is what Big Serge currently understands. He offers a wider understanding that encompasses a range of finances, economics, military tactics and what “history” tells us about past wars.
Worth a read.
Enjoyed listening to Gonzalo today. Intelligent, commonsensical reading of the situation in Kherson, as is.
You see, the Zelensky regime, they’re out of gas — literally and metaphorically.
Best summation of the Ukraine’s situation in about a dozen words.
Well, yes this is just an operational pause in Kherson, not a freezing of the conflict. No sign of a let-up as far as I can see because elsewhere RF forces are slowly clearing out Ukro/Nato out of Avdiivka, Bakhmut, in Donetsk.
Gonzalo, go easy on the durries mate, please look after your health, we like your take on things. We certainly don’t want you dying of lung cancer before your time. As I understand it, Russia called up its Reservists in late September. Some or many of these men, may have been inactive for some years (hence problems with enlistment medicals which is understandable) and depending on their previous competency and experience, they will take longer to be declared competent in weapons handling and their specific corps speciality etc (I don’t know what sort of bench mark the Russian Army uses for this?).
If these men have now been deployed, I would suggest they have probably not been provided with suitable or ideal training, that tests their individual soldier skills and competency, and their ability to competently operate as a section, platoon, company and Battalion size group-force that might have participated in a combined arms exercise or exercises. Just over one month from being drafted, being rusty with zero training, and then deploying to the front line in just over a month, is asking for trouble and failure IMO. Some of these men may be tank, APS/IFV operators who will be required to operate their armoured vehicles etc at Platoon and Company level.
They need time i.e. preferably months to be able to learn how to effectively inter operate with each other as a fighting force at the various, Sect, Platoon, Company and Battalion levels. You cant do this stuff overnight, unless you are an operational deployment force that practices to move at say 7 days or 24 hours notice.
Deploying inadequately trained/rusty Reservists men and equipment at such short notice, you then should not expect to win a fight against a competent enemy force or expect not to take heavy and damaging losses.
I say this from my experience having served over 20 years in the Australian Infantry Corps. On the flip side, If you look at history in the Australian 2/39th Infantry Battalion (Reservists) who were inadequately trained, but were hastily deployed to New Guinea in 1941/42 (WW2) to hold back the Japanese advance, they suffered heavy casualties but were able to hold off a professional Japanese Force until the 39th could be relieved in place by Australian Regular Army Infantry units who finally drove back the advancing Japanese and routed them. The 39th suffered so much damage, that in the end, they were no longer an effective fighting force .
At the end of the battalion’s involvement in the fighting in New Guinea, 1,666 men had served in its ranks. The battalion suffered 403 combat casualties, which consisted of 118 killed in action, 13 died of wounds, five died other causes, and 266 wounded in action. Many also died from jungle type diseases like malaria etc and lack of medical treatment caused by the likes of re supply/logistical issues.
Obviously, the modern European Battlefield is different, more open terrain, longer ranged engagements with heavy armour and long range artillery etc. As a Russian soldier, you may be subject to the full suite of conventional armament and conventional warfare that NATO and Washington can throw at you, pretty horrific when you think about it. But just as bad for the Ukro Nazi Army and its western mercenaries who can be decimated by Russian conventional forces.
As we know, the action of withdrawing is a tactical manoeuvre. The ground can be retaken again in the future once i.e. Russian forces are better reorganised or the tactical situation changes where the ground no longer held, can be retaken. What the Russian Commanders did was a sensible and safe thing to do. They must make sure that these forces they have only recently drafted into service, are fit, competent and capable to fight, an that way, the battle is already half won, and morale will be high along with the will to fight.
The Russians only freeze the conflict when they have made major gains.
The Russians blew the bridges to Kherson. Therefore, the offensive will come down from Belarus against Kiev.
Another excellent daily update from Brian Berletic, on events at the front line in Ukraine, and the rationale for actions as he interprets them. He has a great sporting analogy to explain to the hysterical nay sayers shrieking about Russia’s action too. Worth a listen as always. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRpJHQmIr4A
The only ways to resolve Ukraine IMO.
1. Take all of Ukraine to butt up directly to NATO countries so that a proxy war can never happen again.
2. Make the Ukraine mistake hurt the US so bad they never attempt a proxy war against Russia ever again.
One or both must happen.