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Andrei Martyanov: Change of Narrative
Please visit Andrei’s website: https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
Wish I’d done sums at Uni and not that degree in critical wokeism & lesbian poetry.
No, thank God these simple probability equations are still within my range because it’s sehr interesting, even this basic stuff, also, next time someone pulls a gun on me I’ll have a rough idea how many seconds I have to dive for cover, unless it’s an ambush by an automatic where you only have time to cover your face so you mum can identify you at the morgue.
Time flew by on that one though, 32 minutes, seemed more like 15 min.
lol. My own story started with Math, Math, and more Math but somehow got sidetracked. Social theory was so sexy in them days. Or maybe it was the hottie in PoliSci 300. Too bad I didn’t have an Applied Math prof like Andrei. No good examples to follow.
Talk about time flying by. I can remember my only post-secondary Math A+ (in Differential Equations) in the summer of 1980. That’s 42 years ago now. Yikes.
I’m currently teaching my daughter who recently started secondary school, Maths, Physics and Chemistry, that’s in addition to her attending, supposedly, one of the top 15 schools in England at a cost per year that got me through 5 college years (incl. the bar bills ).
Only God knows what she does Monday -Friday, 08.45-15.45, but whatever she does, it doesn’t involve learning.
I distinctly remember, although attending a state primary school, we were at least 2 years ahead of where she’s currently at in math. My teacher ruled with an iron fist and kept me in check as I was a boisterous sort. Maths 1st prize every year, loved it. Great hardback prizes worth a few bob. Nowadays ‘everyone’ gets a certificate and a ribboned tin medal.
I reckon this is down to the teachers being asked not to overextend the kids that some may feel alienated, have XYZ issues. I tell her mum, forking out the deposit on a house every year to send her to a bog average private school is daft, send her to the local state school, which is in a nice area 5 minutes away and stick the £25k per year (gross £150k) that it’s going to cost to A-level in the Bank/Gold/Silver.
When you listen to Andrei and then you hear that Russia is leaving the Bologna system then it’s no wonder Britain, I think the US is even worse, is tumbling down the league tables in Education, sciences in particular.
Then you look at the Leadership of the country and it all fits, top to bottom, going through the motions of a going concern, bankrupt financially, morally, mentally.
The dumbing down of education, while at the same time making the same dumbed down fools lift it up to be considered the pinnacle of intelligence, has been a part of the NWO plan for a long time.
And the only thing that has increased more than the ridiculous cost is the plethora of useless degrees.
You have to hand it to them, they get the midwit idiots coming and going! You know the ones, they tell you about their Masters degrees before they tell you their name.
I went to a UK grammar school in the sixties with very good reputation but the classes were too big, in my opinion, for maths, chem & physics. I needed to keep asking questions….and there just wasn’t the opportunity. But, of course, I had no problem listening to a lecture on history or literature…..which is probably why my school used to send a handful of arts students to Oxbridge every year….but no maths students.
Years later, I paid for a bright university student to teach my own kids maths & physics for a couple of hours a week. I used to occasionally sit in on the lessons…..and in a small group like this….everything suddenly became so simple and easy to understand. I bitterly regret having thrown away maths, etc by the age of 16. I would think that there days, with the internet and the availability of youtube-type lessons….maths, etc would be much more accessible than it was to me struggling in a crowded classroom. I hope this doesn’t sound like a cop-out for being idle, lol.
A few years ago when my niece was in what was considered a very good high school I was surprised that she never had any homework to do. She was an honor student and had chosen a pretty challenging course load. Turns out that teaching happened only about half way through class and the second half was to help students with questions. This is what ‘no student left behind’ look like in real life. Those who had no questions were allowed to do homework. So she always came home with her homework already done. She was incredibly bored at that school and eventually she decided to transfer to an even more demanding school with a pretty tough reputation (scholastically) for her final year where she absolutely thrived.
My best friend since high school noted that her daughter who is now studying veterinary medicine had a much less demanding curriculum during high school.
I had started school in Europe but finished grade 12 in Canada. We covered nothing new to me. Some of the things we covered I had already done back home in grade 8, absolutely nothing past grade 10. Europe has since then lowered its educational quality because realistically, high school students from the US and Canada would not be able to keep up if they were to study abroad. A European BA only takes 3 years because there is no summer break. 3 times 4 months summer break equals a full year.
Another thing that struck me back then were the multiple choice answers. I had never taken a test where answers were given. We received marks for the process. In maths for example it was not enough to just jot down the answer, you had to show every step of how you got to the answer. In all other subjects tests were essay questions, or at the very least you had to write out single word answers. I hardly spoke any English when I got to Canada because I did not start with English until grade 7 (I had Latin as my first foreign language), but despite that, passing tests was easy. Except for my maths final which was all about speed, which I did not know at the time because I had never done one before, so I passed but did not do well, because I was still doing the process on the side…
Without focusing on the process kids never learn how to apply what they learn. If you cannot apply what you learn you don’t learn how to think. Don’t learn how to apply logic. And it is starting to show.
If you have not learned how to process, or apply a process, how to think, or apply logic, you are easier to influence.
Interessting, never actually thought about how mathematics was part of the war nitty gritty. Guess those war movies are of limited educational usage.
War covers all of the sciences and most of the social sciences. The Psychology of War.
And politics. War is not an extension of politics. War is political.
Times of peace are when politicians are negotiating by bluff and when political opponents know that the hands they face are strong.
War breaks out when bluffs get called or someone shows a weak hand.
Another eye opener on the realities of command and control.
Larry Johnson also backs it up with a couple of short vids on the true horror of war, reinforcing what a dugout removal, can look like. Also why a combat patrol never ever bunches up on a street corner for a chat.
Too late for Ukraine to do a”U” turn. Russia quietly explained this is not about a Jewish ‘testicular piano player’’ or soft bellied, flabby Nazis. Its all about a dying empire and zombie colonialist’s that still don’t get it.
The Taiwan military will be watching Ukraine very carefully. Their chose is death by steel and fire or destruction by queer sex and Monopoly money.
“Suffer not the little children.”
“Its all about a dying empire and zombie colonialist’s that still don’t get it.”
True. But, who cares if they do? Diplomacy failed. It is clear that you can not reason with psychopaths. Now they will get what they deserved. It’s been long overdue.
This math stuff is way oversold. The problem is that it is really good at coming up with false conclusions. I will give you a really easy example of a false conclusion.
I don’t know what is going on now, but they started using statistical analysis of football games maybe (??) forty years ago, and at first it was seriously overused. One of the things they did was a simple correlation study, and what they discovered early on was that teams that ran the ball a lot won more games than teams that passed a lot. At least some coaches, one from my home town, seized on the idea and as best they could, built teams that were good at running the ball. The results were, well, unimpressive, and the problem is easily knowable. There is less chance of losing the ball in a running play than in a passing play. Thus the best teams would get ahead in a game, and to keep from losing the ball, would run more. That produced the outcome that teams that ran the ball won more, not because there was any magic in running the ball, but because the better teams had the luxury of running the ball more because they were the better teams. Loser teams that tried to run the ball more simply didn’t score enough and would go down in defeat with their many running plays. Or go back to throwing the ball a lot, giving them a chance of a victory.
The key takeaway is that there is no assumption of causality in math. If A is correlated with B, that doesn’t support that A is caused by B, nor does it prove that B is caused by A.
Because there is no assumption of causality in math, it can’t be overcome with complexity. Take the most powerful computer available, run the most complex statistical analysis program on an enormous data set, and there is still no assumption of causality. That never changes because math can’t address it because there is no assumption of causality in math.
When the prior opinion of the experimenter is correct then the conclusion is valid. For example, if we allow that driving a car causes it to burn gasoline, then the estimated miles per gallon for cars is a useful equation, not because it proves correlation, but because the prior assumption of correlation is correct. Correlation is assumed not proved.
In complex situations when there are multiple causalities, these mathematical methods became little more more than the researcher manipulating the data until it produces an outcome that seems sensible. And sensible is nothing more than the researchers preconceived idea of causality. To put it in fancy words, the situation invites conformational bias like crazy. An old saw is that if you torture the data long enough it will tell you what ever you want to hear.
Now for a real world example. I saw a computer video of some Ukraine troops that refused to go into the battlefield. Their complaint was that the only thing they got was a rifle while the other side had cannon, thermobaric rockets, tanks, surveillance drones and so on. Is their opinion sound even if they haven’t run a multivariate regression analysis on the situation using all the various weapon systems as independent variables?
Alas, this complex math stuff is used with some frequency to intimidate. See, they say, these people know so much more than you do that you don’t have the right to an opinion. And with regard to the Ukraine troops, not having an opinion just might get them killed.
Ask Napoleon about maths and artillery.
Angle of the dangle and explosive power. Calculating distance and angle of attack by explosive force you need good maths and…it gets complicated. Artillery wins wars. Simple fact Russia seems to win all its wars with big guns. The defeat of France in Moscow (with Pte Winter) and old Adolf in what is now called Ukraine ( again with the help from Pte. Winter.) was achieved with massed artillery and tanks. Then allowing the Russian infantry’s bullet a bayonet to deliver the coup de grace.
The only Russian defeat being from the corrupt, broke and dying USSR empire with last gasp being in Afghanistan.
History rhymes to the steady near constant beat of war drums.
America is on the sweaty dance floor of history, rocking and rolling.
War ain’t football. Its all about advertisers, bookies, bribes and entertainemet. Plus getting the grand final play offs with the teams that generate the most money. Its not confined to any one country.
However I agree with you completely, it’s all talk: from the moment you taste your own blood.
You made a good case for the Ukrainian trooper’s micro decision, but Martyanov’s method is for “bigger” and “better” decision-making.
Even though numbers can tell a lot, in the end, as Marty says, someone has to say yes, or no.
That is a very narrow and literal interpretation.
Andrei describes math in terms of calculation of force as a simple example.
Mathematical calculation is fundmental tool for the modeling and analysis of scenarios that are under constant development and revison and numerous other essential aspects of planning.
Math was used to teach as how the covid pseudopandemic have been killing us in HUGE lots like the ones Gazprom sells gas. It is always about which parameters you chose to calcul with. War is not only about maths, see how Brits trolled Germans before the Normandy invasion. In my humble opinion Mr. Martyanov do too much strategy thinking. Like the British generals in What a Lovely War. It it said that Napoleon lost the battle at Waterloo for his ulcers pain plus being nervous as he was not able to cook his loved morning pankcases properly.
On IntelSlava we could see that US, Italian and French howitzers went about 1000 km through UA unharmed and were, perhaps still are, working on Russians. About such things this strategist blogger is mostly or completely silent, hohols propaganda is everywhere. Today on IntelSlava we can see how still Ukies bombed some small town in Donetsk rep. and that HIMARS cavalry is coming soon. Plus from the same source we knew that there was some unrest and videos in the Donetsk forces too.
Disclaimer. I do believe that Russians are having serious victories. Plus Elensky and Zaluzny with their OTAN instructors are panicking a little bit or more then a little bit.
There are two kinds – Deterministic maths and Probabilistic maths. You are mixing the two. Deterministic is causal and very accurate if done correctly. Statistics is probabilistic and it has its own uses.
Both requires a good knowledge of the system that is being modeled. In the first case, knowledge is used to physically model the system. In the second case, knowledge is used to check if the model makes the sense or not.
Level of significance is very important in Probabilistic maths. Above 95% it is good. A large sample (a large number of data points covering the whole range without bias(uniformly divided)) gives good results. Plus the accumulated knowledge should check if the result makes sense.
This time even the u-tube isn’t showing any CC — shame, I used to download the CC’s and was done reading it before the end of a video. Double shame!
Who borhers to want to know how many troops on each side are killed, wounded, taken prisoner while wounded, taken prisoner while not being wounded ???
Now, who publishes their count ?
Can I get some graphs, from each source that publishes, with time as X axis and number of troops as the other axis, an independent graph of each grouping/type of troop, and by each publisher ?
Because Kiev and the Pentagon, who publish these numbers, would look like idiots when the graphs are viewed by an unbiased observer. (Or them Rooskies lost a lot in the beginning, but now are losing very very few these days)
How about graphs of Ukrop armored vehicles, wirh the NATO replacment armor added in ???
Because the graphs would show Kiev losing 30 tanks for every 3 NATO sends in, which won’t look very sustainable.
Always enjoy Mr. Martyanov. The narrative is beginning to shift in the Western media. Ukraine is heading for a crushing defeat in the East but this should not be a surprise to readers of this website. This was easily predictable.
I know many mathematical estimates are made before the beginning of any conflict. I would love to explore the mathematics that are the basis for real time war games. What most people don’t know is that any campaign is wargamed many years in advance and is updated and rehearsed right before the campaign begins. Often these events are called exercises. NATO took a very keen interest in Zapad 2021 no doubt. This year’s NATO exercises in the Baltic states and in the Nordic areas should also be of interest to Russia. How does NATO deal with Kaliningrad?
Maybe a compromise, Kaliningrad can join NATO along with Finland and Norway. Everybody’s happy!
Heinrich von Treitschke would probably approve of this plan WTFUD. :)
Let’s make compromise. Kaliningrad’s missiles can join NATO’s ships and airplanes in an explosion of joy.
@Carl: “Because the graphs would show Kiev losing 30 tanks for every 3 NATO sends in, which won’t look very sustainable.”
What graphs? There are claims of enemy losses. Enemy losses almost without exceptions have always been exaggerated. This happened during WW1 and WW2 and in American War in Vietnam. It’d be very interesting when perhaps some 10-20 years later reliable real objective military historians will go through this war and check real losses of all armies. These losses most likely have been much lower than claimed by enemy forces. I don’t believe in claims of UAF and RF MoD. Numbers are inflated.
Numbers are irrelevant. Russia is advancing, Western proxy is on retreat. It’s binary choice.
The statistics matters. 2008 crash was likely an error in the financial risk model used by the banks — where systemic risk was not properly addressed.
Martyanov is dividing 67 / 75 / 82 by 1.3. Probably not accurate. The problem of the tank not being able to fire shot 2 or 3 because it was hit in phase 1 is not considered.
Well, well… 😋
“Putin’s armies may or may not destroy Ukraine, but rising voter anger over soaring consumer prices poses a far more immediate danger of getting European politicians voted out of office.” – Politico
Here’s an Ukrainian speaking about the so-called Ukrainian patriots…https://youtu.be/s37yNfYqYnc (In Russian, use subtitles)