Andrei Martyanov talks about a very important issue almost buried in the other issues. That is the Global Conflict which he describes as the west against the global community coalescing around Russia and China now. On the Saker Blog, Andrei Raevski called it Zone A and Zone B, we can simply call it the west against the rest.
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Excellent as always, especially the closing comments clearly reminding us all that the “Ukraine Problem” is just a part of a much larger development.
I particularly noted the petrol / diesel problem in the US, a Country absolutely dependent on cheap diesel for ALL significant material transport. Apart from the clear evidence that it’s the “collective West” that’s really hurting from “sanctions blowback”, can we imagine how bad things will be in the Northern Hemisphere winter, especially with current trends in e.g. LPG tanker “cost inflation” (2700% in the Northern “summer”)
What’ll happen when (not “if”) the Rouble becomes far stronger vis a vis the US Dollar? What’ll happen to the much-vaunted US Arms Industry when non-Vassal Countries see that Russian hardware is cheaper, better-performing and more reliable?
Is the US going to fade away quietly, (very unlikely), or are they going to escalate this conflict?
The US has clear, serious internal problems right now. I feel the Global situation has a real potential to become far more dangerous, in a relatively short time span.
Whatever the regimen in Washington does to save their backsides it must get done by November. I suggest they are going to escalate the conflict in Ukraine to take the peoples eyes off of the theft of our money (trillions they have stolen) they have stolen. They may encourage Iran to bring an attack on Israel to help cover up their crimes.
—–What’ll happen when (not “if”) the Rouble becomes far stronger vis a vis the US Dollar? What’ll happen to the much-vaunted US Arms Industry when non-Vassal Countries see that Russian hardware is cheaper, better-performing and more reliable?—-
The salaries , materials and tools in the russian arms industry are paid in rubles.
A soaring ruble makes russian weapons more expensive to a foreign buyer.
So for a while the russian weapons will stay attractive for a foreign buyer until the relation ruble/$ gains a level that we find a equilibrium.
Whilst there must be an equilibrium position (although Western crony capitalism always prefers a State – enforced monopoly), there are advantages as well as disadvantages to a stronger currency.
Rather than needing to spend (in currency AND time) on development, Russia can leap-frog the early R&D phases by buying already – developed technology, which can in turn be used to leverage a technological advantage. After all this is how China became such a technology powerhouse – inward investment and “adoption” of Western technology (gladly provided by the West in return for cheap, yet highly capable, Chinese labour).
Also, the majority of Russian mil. tech. is produced for “domestic consumption”, and export versions are technologically less capable (for obvious reasons), yet sell on the open market right now. It is very probable that Russia will be able to use the conflict to their (medium-term) advantage, both economic (so continuing to diversify income away from any dependence on energy exports), and strategic (further developing the network of “friendly Countries” who are able and willing to freely trade with Russia, for an assured (i.e. interference-free) mutual benefit).
Given that Russian armaments are designed for war and not money laundering and massive up and down the line kickbacks, I think there is a rather large cushion to use up before US arms make any kind of military sense at all.
I love your intro as well as my youngest son. I believe he once confessed to me he could do it well.
I appreciate your educational efforts on our behalf as well. Lasttruebeliever
The US never borrows $’s from China.
They don’t need to borrow $’s They are the issuer of the $.
It is like saying the Monopoly issuer of teaspoons have to borrow teaspoons.
Here is a video that shows how it really works you can safely ignore anything Rand Paul says.
I want to stress that even if some weapons get into Ukraine, Russia will not allow them to get to the front line.
I think the alleged supplying of weapons to Ukraine is purely informational warfare to keep morale of Ukie soldiers up. Not to mention a money laundering scheme.
The USA stock market is way down since January.
Only 20% S&P. Recession dip yes but not disaster………yet. Monkey-pox is on the way 90% in the Gay-7 Suicide Countries.
What a bunch of fools.
Have you missed the (already old) news that US Howitzers are operating in the east?
Not interested in whether anyone thinks these weapons are or are not significant in terms of either quantity or lethality.
The point is they got through. And not in the trunk of some crappy old car. And there are people capable of operationalizing those weapons.
So how can you say Russia will not allow them to get to the front line. They are allowing it. Why are they allowing it?
Two or three MOD reports ago, a M777 firing battery was discovered. As per Russian SOP, they let the battery fire (such patience) they then watched as the battery took cover in a wooded area. Fire control destroyed the 3 pieces of artillery, the ammo stored in the woods, and made mincemeat of the operators.
Things will get through, look how big the place is, but the LDNR will be under allied control before they make a difference. Russia is already moving air defense into the LDNR which will extend their range further west. Once the LDNR is secured, Russia can pick away at the scabs in Odessa or wherever they chose. The Ukrainian is rolling steppe and prairie topographically so moving from West to East with any sizable force credible enough to threaten Russia……sitting ducks.
If the Russians are “allowing it”, then it’s because they don’t mind being handed easy targets or capturing some free arms they can turn back on US/NATO!
Towed artillery is now extremely limited in usefulness, in this day and age of UAV scouting and the Russians are way ahead of anything the US/NATO folks can put up to counter the UAVs. Gotta be able to “shoot and scoot!”
Here, read (from 2016) watch (from 2018) and learn something:
The M777s were “delivered” *without* electro-guidance systems (fear of Russian capture), so these guns are almost useless. Once they fire a round, they are targeted and destroyed.
Have you seen the videos? They take them. Small explosion in the field between the ‘new’ material, the Ukie soldiers take cover in the woods and a barrage of shells finishes them off. The unscathed howitzers become war booty for LDNR. ;-)
@Hank, Russian MOD report from three days ago, 18 M777’s destroyed, along with support vehicles, ammunition, and “trained” personnel…plus there’s the 4 M777 batteries captured intact by Chechen special forces…so they’re minus 22…
Those M777 howitzer crews aren’t lasting very long before being obliterated with their ammo.
RF are releasing videos of UFA being destroyed taunting with the call sign of the RF artillery battery that killed them.
From what I understand (I could be totally wrong, so please correct me), the US creates money when the US government (or the Federal Reserve) issues Treasury bonds. What if there is nobody to buy these bonds, or they are willing to buy it at a discount?
When countries are trying to divest themselves of their USD and Euro holdings, why would they simultaneously buy US Treasury bonds? That is the real danger of the situation.
Additionally, as inflation rises, the interest to be paid on new bonds increases, so the U|S will have a larger deficit, to finance which it will need to issue more bonds! There could be a huge supply of bonds, and no buyers.
Of course, the US government mints could literally print the required dollars if no buyers are found for Treasury bonds, but that would lead to very high inflation.
Not a good situation to be in, I think.
@Ravi: “(I could be totally wrong, so please correct me), the US creates money when the US government (or the Federal Reserve) issues Treasury bonds”.
Please correct me, but I think the U$ government creates DEBT for the U$ people when the U$ government prints money; because the printing of money is not a right but a **franchise** which the U$ government buys from the **private owners** of the Fed by debt of so many cents per annum per dollar printed. The U$ government has the **right** to spend that money as it pleases but the **obligation** to repay the **private owners** of the Fed for that right to print **their** currency falls on the U$ people: the U$ people are **bondsmen** and **bondwomen** for the **public** debt incurred by the U$ government to the **private** owners of the Fed.
“**obligation** to repay the **private owners** of the Fed for that right to print **their** currency falls on the U$ people”
Not entirely. It falls on all countries in system of central bank. With huge bias created by creative acounting, unsuspecting periphery is taking lions share of US inflation. That way, US can getaway with order of magnitude more debt than anyone else. Consider this as invisible tax on vasals and colonies. Or better mafia “protection” racket.
If you don’t like it, you end up pushing daisies. Next to Sadam and Ghaddafi.
Two things are needed for scheme to work: world reserve currency status, and fearfull military. Russia is destroying both, as we speaking. With a not-so-little help from friends.
I mean FEARSOME military. Yet, it might not be a mistake. We’ll see soon.
“From what I understand (I could be totally wrong, so please correct me), the US creates money when the US government (or the Federal Reserve) issues Treasury bonds.”
You understand incorrectly.
The US government creates money whenever it spends. It has no need to issue Treasury Bonds at all, or pay any interest on them to anybody. The balancing figure people on here like to call ‘debt’ pops into being as a matter of the way banks do their accounting – entirely automatically and unavoidably.
All government spending is ‘printing money’, all taxing is ‘destroying money’ and all ‘debt’ is just somebody saving slowing down the ‘taxing’ process. If they don’t save, then it will be spent, taxed and destroyed.
Saving is systemically an alternative to taxing. If there is less saving, then you just have more taxing or less initial spending. Get that right and there will be no inflation. All very simple.
Money is a promise, not a thing. All money is somebody else’s liability. It’s all about balancing the flows of money, not the stock of money.
Ravi as the accountant says above
There is no need to issue Treasuries at all it is a left over from the gold standard.
If they do issue them the FED can always buy them. Or the BOE like they did during the pandemic. When Central banks started to hold their own bonds.
See Japan for details – Japan considers this normal practice.
Japan still to slip in the sea under its central bank debt burden
Bank of Japan once again shows who calls the shots
More fun in Japanese bond markets
Yes but this becomes a problem when a competing system start to shows up like now with Russias commodity based economy then countries start realize the fiat scam. Therefore the ongoing inflation. Remember Gaddafi was killed because he wanted to impose similar system. Russia is doing this out of necessity.
What is meant by borrow US means that US will issue US govt bond and china will buy it. Even if us is issuer of usd, if nobody want to buy usd, then it will increase usd supply and create inflation.
The magazine cover image of capitalist fascist fat fell and ukie nazi from 1956… can anyone propose a url for this image?
The New Atlas (AKA Land Destroyer) recently gave a talk about the global conflict:
Myanmar:China has become an analogue to Ukraine:Russia, as this article makes clear:
“Myanmar resistance urges West to provide arms for fight against junta”
“May 17 (Reuters) – The defence chief of Myanmar’s shadow government has called for international help to arm its resistance forces fighting the ruling military, requesting support similar to that being given to Ukrainians battling invading Russian troops . . .”
Under the guise of “democracy,” Mr. Soros’ National Endowment for Democracy has pumped huge amounts of money into Myanmar:
Sound familiar? New Atlas goes into the details.
* Correction: National Endowment for Democracy is *not* Soros’ organization. The president and CEO of NED is a former NATO official, Damon Wilson — one who worked “to deter and counter Russian aggression” and “to support a democratic Ukraine”:
Andrei, Would you rather have had a T34 or a Sherman in WWII? I think I know which one I would have wanted.
Those were the days my friends
We thought they’d never end . . . . . .
well they have Uncle Sham , now F-off and die with whatever dignity you have left.
Finally we’re talking their language, the language these psychopaths understand, gunboat diplomacy.
Andrei, we share the same name and approximate age, I was born in Australia, my mother was Russian.
When she would call me on the phone, she would say “Андруша, Это я”
Please don’t change your intro!
Money from US to Ukraine is not a gentle gift, but a large part has to be reimbursed.
So how Ukraine will reimburse ? Or even clearer, who in Ukraine will be responsible for reimburse such a burden? Which kind of government will?
Please don’t stop the “Hello, it’s me again” greeting!!!! I am addicted to it, ie very fond of it…Every time I get to listen to another of your videos it’s as if I’m going to an oasis of reason in this time of massive western media propaganda insanity, and that oddly rather soothing introduction is a perfect beginning….
For years I have thought that without huge violence west will never be able to compete with China-India combination. The problem here is the lack of understanding the evident: western dominance was never based on “superiority of race”, better productivity. In 17th and 18th century over 70% perhaps even 80% of world trade was concentrated on China-India axis with surrounded areas. Transatlantic trade, unlike our western history was written was far smaller. The natural center of textile industry should have been in Egypt, India and China. Not in Manchester or New England. Empire (Britain) opressed those countries making them slave labor to bring better paying industrial jobs to west.
According studies of economic history no currency has dominated globally longer than 110 years. During WW1 dollar replaced British pounds. What has happened since 2000 (steady decline of dollar hegemony as leading reserve currency) is backing that 110 years time frame. 2020’s is the decade of the end of dollar hegemony. It will be replaced by basket of several currencies, with US dollar just one of many others.
Zero hour contracts, pay-cuts and more austerity , decades of it.
This basket of currencies that’s been touted by the IMF, why would China, Russia and anyone else who’s desperate to rid themselves completely from American hegemony go along with this? Just another shyster alphabet organisation milking the weakest, exposing them to forever indebtedness.
This is the first time in history that the USA/NATO are facing a real enemy and not one at a huge disadvantage, economically, strategically, and tactically. And no, defeating a few divisions of youth and invalids in Normandy does not count, even though the “allies” did pretty dismally there too.
This is not so much a war against Russia by NATO and the USA (The Ukraine is just cannon fodder) as The Revenge of the Third Reich by proxy. The Nazi heart of the West is exposed. It will fail even worse than Barbarossa did.
I would like to thank Mr. Martyanov for the belly laugh regarding the US Military’s predilection for Napoleonic and Wehrmacht planning and operations methods.
I suppose General Sokolovsky should be studied since he was victorious but unfortunately his book is expensive and always unavailable.
General Sokolovsky certainly makes very interesting comments about the use of nuclear weapons that probably should be better understood in the so called “West”.
Excellent delivery as always. Could you explore more on two INGOs in Ukraine: HELP and WORLD KITCHEN or something. They look like a cover operation for some other purposes.
“On the Saker Blog, Andrei Raevski called it Zone A and Zone B, we can simply call it the west against the rest.”
Both Mr. Raevski and the author of the sentence above are wrong thereby restricting strategic options and targetting as a function of their lack of practical experience, including accepting responsibility, in lateral strategic formulation including validation, implementation including evaluation and modification/lateral strategic formulation, and “encouragements” of opponents to bridge doubt by belief to attain levels of their complicity in their own transcendence.
Hence the dismay of some of the treatment of some residents of Zone B or Zone A – sometimes known as refugees and/or non-combitants – including in not resorting to “shock and awe” in emulation of opponents.
As will likely be the case with Azov battalion the standard of evaluation will likely be a derivative of the level of immersion and practices of the coercive social relations self-misrepresented as “The United States of America”, and their complicities in the outcomes derived therefrom.
That is presently a matter under consideration in respect of de-Militarisation and de-Nazification and its utility in purposes of transcendence in interaction with other phenomena.