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Andrei (Raevsky, not Martyanov :-) )
Here’s a silly , trite, somewhat inappropriate, not even clever comment about Russians . I used to work with a few, take care of a few…. I’m thinking of a Russian nurse who I worked with for a good long time who had a proverb that I liked that said: ‘To soon old, too late smart!”
Ain’t that the truth!!!!!!!! I’m going to put that on a T-Shirt
Time is not on our side and from my youth a quote I memorized as soon as i read it
Youth is a mistake
Manhood a struggle
Old age a regret
I disagree, he is pretty much dead on, in a number of aspects.
thank you andrei M & andrei R. i appreciate in this time of verbiage & fog, your succinct clarity. blessings to you both.
Hey Saker, Will Putin eventually be giving any of those hypersonic things to Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Ethiopia etc.
Many were suggesting this option on this site that he may. Wink.
In light of what Andrei says about Zircon missiles, hearing that USA is sending 2 carrier groups to the Black Sea for war games gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling.
Andrei refers to the insane Left in USA. I would call them the Fake Left. The real Left in USA has been dead for a very long time
Carriers are not allowed to enter the Black Sea.
The two carrier groups (AUGs) are in the Mediterranean.
Last we heard they were hunting a Russian sub, but couldn’t find it even using sub-hunter planes.
Has the US Navy very worried.
Our friend, Auslander, says the Russians refer to their subs as “black holes”. Tough to find them.
If they want to dial up some pain. Build up and consolidate CSTO and Eurasian economic union. Then impose collective energy, agricultural product and base/rare metal embargoes on the West.
There is nothing the EU or USA produces which can’t be produced in the non-Western world.
I think they call them “water holes”
because they are there, they know it for sure, but can not detect them…
“Last we heard they were hunting a Russian sub, but couldn’t find it even using sub-hunter planes”.
I bet the Russian sub had no difficulty finding the carrier groups.
A demo would focus some us naval minds.
A big rust bucket of an obsolete tanker taken out in the med by a Zircon from a ‘black hole’ sub many miles away, with the carrier groups in the front row seats !
I think the captains are well aware how 2 ton object at Mach 9 feels when it (pardon my French) penetrates.
And then explodes inside.
In 1967 a malfunctioning firing circuit nearly sank USS Forrestal, at the time (I think) the biggest warship in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_USS_Forrestal_fire
So what would be the effect of one or more hypersonic missiles with large warheads? Those carriers are the most inviting targets a warship or submarine has ever seen. They make Yamato, Musashi, and Shinano look like auxiliary vessels.
My impression is that large aircraft carriers would be difficult to sink but easy to knock out of action including their air wing. Too many water-tight compartment but too many large fragile systems – catapults, munitions & aircraft elevators, etc. The missiles can easily penetrate to the center of the hull and make havoc; perhaps taking out main propulsion as well.
Unfortunately no link but, IIRC 2 or 3 Zircons would disable the largest aircraft carriers and may take 10 to sink. Better to use just 3-4 for the carrier and the rest for the escorting ships. God, I hope it does not come to that.
“So what would be the effect of one or more hypersonic missiles with large warheads?”
Aircraft carriers has many weaknesses compared to big battleships. Their size is at the very edge of technological possibilities for materials, joints are extremely stressed and prone to fatigue. Their payload is loaded asymmetrically and it moves. It is impossible to perfectly balance movable cargo in battle situation. The ship itself is of questionable balance as it is built contrary to millennia of shipbuilding experience (much wider at the top). I highly doubt that any computer simulation can take into account all important factors that emerges from fog of war.
Only after modern carriers face modern weapons, we will be able to know. Active balancing is carriers weakness. My bet is that they will capsize – more likely than sink or blow outright.
Well, seems we will know, soon enough.
… a bit like Superman (it’s what I heard).
The US left died in the 1970’s, snuffed out during the economic and political blowback of the 60’s and finished off by the plain old hunger of inflation and want. I went to college, got married, had a kid, barely made my mortgage and car payments, went to night school, switched careers a couple of times, joined a church, and just got on with it like everybody else.
I knew for sure that liberalism was a corpse when Jerry Rubin became a stock broker in the 1980’s, which also saw the emergence of the zombie corpse of Political Correctness. This was nothing more than Pharisaic self-righteousness. It has since uneasily morphed into SJW, BLM, Antifa, Alphabet+, and currently Woke under the circus metric of constant razzle-dazzle, bate-and-switch, and changing the social and cultural objectives while you wait.
If you can’t make a difference, well, you can at least make a scene out of yourself.
I concur. Freakshow that MSM promoted to “Left” was deliberately injected to make it repulsive. Those who were real left was “contained and restrained” by demagogue leadership who betrayed them before elections. Twice.
Evelyn Farkas is not !!! Hungarian .
Wikipedia refutes your comment:
“Farkas’ family hails from Hungary. She earned her B.A. from Franklin and Marshall College, graduating in 1989, and her M.A. and Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. She is fluent in Hungarian and German.”
Wikipedia is correct Evelyn Farkas and her family are the citizens of Hungary.
And George Soros was born in Hungary .But none of them have a slightest regard for Hungary.
They are not Hungarian spirits.
“She is fluent in Hungarian and German”
American fluent I guess. Like Condoleezza Rice’s Russian. 🤣
It seems she is not Jewish, but she has done plenty of knee-bending. Just do a search and you will see what I mean.
Nowadays I would hesitate before saying that Wikipedia “refutes” anything. First I would need to know the politically correct answers, the political connections of the person in question, and a lot more.
Refute does not means “challenge” or “deny”. It means “conclusively disprove”.
A country that lost 27 million people give or take tells you about red line maybe the west need to listen up!!!!!
Ivan afraid to die.
More than that, he is afraid to hurt us.
He subconsciously knows he shouldn’t harm the superior race.
Heck, we can plonk a platoon in the middle of Moskow and these jokers will create a mile deep cordon and negotiate for 10 years.
Maybe i am wrong but a million zirkon won’t make a difference.
Like a brat knowing the mother won’t use the cane. Poor analogy, i guess.
Still, waving the cane and bashing the furniture in kazak won’t do the trick.
Unfortunately we are looking at brats with nukes.
The cane / zirkon MUST be used on the brats backside, but without him crossing the threshold to burn the house down.
No use talking about wonder weapons when the brats believe it won’t ever be directly used on them.
good stuff. i believe this is what it really comes down to. showtime. what’s the show, I don’t know…
I wish people of intellect would just quit categorising/bracketing people into groups. Left-Right, Left-Right, march (much more applicable to Line Dancing, or any other silly dance, when all you want is a quick shag but are forced to strut/flap around like a fool before you get it ). Centre, Centre Left, Centre Right, Moderate Rebels, all NONSENSE.
You’d have great difficulty slipping an A4 sheet of paper between Clinton (the Lolita Express One ), Bush Junior, Obama or Trump.
If Hillary Clinton & Nancy Pelosi are considered hard left then my mother was the Attila The Hun. Even this AOC newbie, if folks consider her hard left, then I should consider suing all the Education Departments that I ever attended.
In my hemisphere there are 3 kinds of people – Reasonable, Unreasonable and those too stupid to make up their own minds, let’s call them Sheep. Unfortunately it’s the Unreasonable minority, the Self-Serving who control hearts and minds through their plethora of propaganda outlets.
You would be accused of trying to ruin his democracy, and today this is not an acceptable democratic thing.
“I wish people of intellect would just quit categorising/bracketing people into groups”.
People of intellect don’t.
The Zircon annoncement was made yesterday, the day after NATO told Russia to stuff it and three days after the US told Russia to stuff it. Things were not going well yesterday so, in my book. Not waiting more than ten extra seconds, Russia just decided screw it, they pulled the pin and chucked it. I have learned that timing is an extremely important aspect of signaling. This announcement, that basically makes the entire Occidental fleet obsolete, is not a random event. It is my opinion that this is what we have been looking for, in terms of what the Saker calls visible ´pain dial´ adjustments. It was the bell for round one and as Russia said all along, it would be fast and severe. Pay attention to the ball guys.
This is also about vector. For whom was it intended to kick in the testicles? It was not meant for Mr. Blinken, President biden, Gloria, Hillary or some other jackass de jour. It went right to the heart of the beast; Military Industrial Complex. That little zinger, high speed zinger in fact, was for them. It will have a heavy effect on the dudes planning, building and deploying Occidental weapon systems and forces. The thing that will keep that plastic smile on their faces, as they do the rug dance in front of the ´humanities crowd´ as Mr. Martyanov terms them, is they know a whole lot more zing is coming.
Vector and timing are critical components to take into account when analysising the game, even when one is at the amatuer level, such as myself.
Regards to all,
Russia flogs Ukraine, from Russian territory.
US does nothing, no red high heels on the ground.
Europe blows into a brown paper bag, the tough talking German chick wets herself.
Ropes appear tied to the top of lamp posts.
Poland says, we was only joking.
The silly Baltic sisters with their pants down, scream hysterically, “the Russians are coming.”
The chairs on the Titanic quickly rearranged to 1997 settings.
Brandon says “that was close,” suddenly the US streets erupt in Blue on Blue.
The Gold Standard arrives: shove your sanctions.
When the world is spinning on the end of a long thin stick all the above could happen in a blinking of a Secretary of States sad eyes. Because the time has arrived to remove the tools from the table and lay your cards down. Only one hand wins everything, ie the one with the biggest claws. It’s that dangerous. Meanwhile Main Street America watches football and buys the dip as waits for more cheques in the mail.
Nothing is going to be the same after 2022.
Bye Bye said the little bear that loves the sea.
Certain possessive lovers often say to the woman they consider their own: “if you will not be mine, it will not be anyone else’s.” Then they kill her and then they shoot her in the head. This is Western behavior, believing that the world belongs to him. Well, for that there are snipers. (sorry, automatic translation)
Thanks Andrej for explaining. Now is the time to stop advertising and start the action. I don’t know why the Russians should explain to the enemy, I repeat enemy, the quality of their weapons. To get scared and withdraw or? So the EUropeans will take to the streets and overthrow their governments in fear? Let’s be serious when that happened in history? The response from America (holding NATO) is unsatisfactory. This is the problem of Europeans, not Americans. They will never get their head out of the sand. If the Russians already have such weapons, then let’s see the action. I guess there was a lot of rhetoric so far.
Martyanov’s video makes a lot of sense.
Selling Zircon to China effectively ends even the thought that the US Navy could intervene in Taiwan. China would not have to do anything. The US military would understand that they have been checkmated.
That makes me wonder if Russia might sell the S400 to Iran. That, again, would completely neuter any thought of military adventurism against Iran.
On both counts, it would not matter what the Western media says. The Western leaders would understand that they are increasingly helpless in these major geopolitical venues.
We know that Russia and China share some of the same security concerns. At least they have the same enemy.
I would like to see a possible scenario where China gets involved with more than diplomacy/rhetoric. China knows for sure if Russia falls, she is next.
Look, there are only two cards left in the US hand to play and those two cards are the Jokers.
While all this distraction is going on, Israel is hurredly doubling the number of settlers occupying the Golan Heights. More of their precious facts on the ground. FIn troubled times, fcts on the ground can easily become facts in the ground.
Whatever Russia does, it has been planned for some time in recognition of the non-negotiation-capable US. The proximate threats are the nuke-capable first stike missile offense systems in Poland and Romania.
Comrades, you have 10 minutes to evacuate the site?
The US should be used to that following Iran’s reaction to their willfull murder of a diplomat on a peace mission.
My fear is the only thing left in the US arsenal is the use of bioweapons. They haven’t been collecting caucasian Russian and Chinese DNA without a reason. They are the only country to have used all three classes on WMD.
I’m thinking that I might have heard of this book from Saker, so it’s rather interesting to re-introduce it here and now with an eye to seeing how well Greer’s story is shaping up (to me, it’s rather uncanny):
No offense to many excellent forecasters here, but the best argument for how this current skirmish is going to go is, IMO, well thought out here (Aaron Mate interview with Col Doug Macgregor):
Just NOT seeing the US back down, Biden’s numbers are pathetically low. The warmongers, as they do, will take advantage of this to shake things up (they don’t care about “mistakes” because they are NEVER held accountable). Provocation is certain, the ONLY question is what it will be/look like: strongly suspect it’ll be chemical weapons (all the script-writers have this down); Kazakhstan might have been the sure-fire path for this, but now their bio-lab is under a lot closer scrutiny this might be fairly thwarted- keep in mind, though, that the US could turn around and use projection (accuse Russia of taking over the lab in order to then, suddenly, produce bioweapons for use in Ukraine).
Very good that the Zircon has past all trials and is approved for general deployment. But would it not take many months if not a few years to fully deploy on all potential launchers? Lots of training, lot of logistical support, updating software, manuals, spare parts depots, etc.?
My guess is that the Khinzal carried by the Mig-31 or the Tu-22 would be the launcher of choice. These units are already in service, crews trained, weapons and sensors calibrated, etc. Plus, it carriers a bigger warhead and has a longer range.
Andrei Martyanov, it is very encouraging to find that Russia has come a long way in the defence field; that it is far ahead of the Haughty Empire in certain areas of military capabilities.
But this reality carries its own dangers; two of which I’d like to mention now, namely: there are traitors in every nation, and Russia has had its fair share of them. Its enemies – US/UK mainly – will not stop at anything in order to snatch such knowledge. From time to time we hear of one or another Russian scientist being detained for such crimes.
A second danger lies in the nature of man’s heart, i.e. pride. “Pride comes before destruction…” My caution is not related to Russia’s dealings with any other country. Pride in international relations at this historical time is found squarely in the West, mainly in the US/UK. What is somewhat worrying is the widespread assumption that Russia’s enemies will not have a chance in case of a military conflict, so that Russia’s victory is assured in any (conventional) circumstance. Presumption is not a good companion in such serious matters, if we consider that God on high is far from the proud in heart.
While I sincerely hope that the situation will end up as described by Mr. Martyanov, I find that his argument is based on two assumptions that may not be correct: 1- “total” lack of preparation of NATO and the Western world, (” really?”) 2- absolute possibility of victory of Russia, as if the missiles that will hit it in the event of war would not touch it at all. With anguish, in the case of a war, I don’t think the result can be as overwhelming in Russia’s favor as Andrei Martyanov describes it. But I am not a military expert!
I’ve noticed that you have a couple of trolls parked on the site as soon as you post an article. The first thing that they do is make fun of anything you publish. Compare the publishing time, with their comment date stamp. They just cannot wait to post something derogatory so that it sticks at the top of the comment section. A true troll behavior.
The rest of the comments are average / normal folk.
You must be important to be assigned propaganda-trolls. I would take that as a badge of honor.
The video and the article are very interesting. Thank you for your time and intellect.
Not all Hungarians hate Russia.
Indeed, I think the majority of the population is now in favor of deeepening ties with Russia.
Historically speaking, the Russian Tzar helped the Habsburg Emperor Franz Josef to fight the Hungaian Revolution in 1848. Had had Hungary its way alone from that time, it surely would not have come to world war one in the way it did.
There is abundant historical evidence there to see that the Hungarian prime minister in 1914 – Count Istvan Tisza – opposed vehemently the war because he knew, Hungary would loose the most. It happened exactly that way. The Emperor (still Franz Josef) insisted, because the Austrian and German generals insisted.
According to the constitution of the Austrian Hungarian Monarchy, the Emperor was the supreme commander in chief, so after a while Tisza had to give in.
The Hungarian revolution in 1919 was just as an organized coup as the socialist revolution in Russia in 1917.
The Munich decision – even if it was Britains game with Hitler and was chiefly a means to push Germany to the East to confront Soviet Russia – gave Hungary back the OVERWHELMINGLY (over 85 %) etnic Hungarian territories from Czechoslovakia.
Why in the first place did get Czechoslovakia such territories in 1920 where the population was Hungarian?
Back in 1920, it was evident to all decision makers, that the border lines went against the lines between the Hungarian and Slovak nationalities.
Please look up how and what the Versailles treaty did to Hungarians.
Even today, at the border with Slovakia, tehere are still ca. 2 millions of Hungarians, living RIGHT AT THE BORDER with Hungary.
Hungary NEVER EVER, in its 1100 years of history had intention or took state wide measures to swipe out the Slovaks or any other nationalities on its territory.
Poland did (Pisuldski Regime) – to Russians, to Jews, to Ukrainians, etc etc. you name it.
So please do not mix up the Poles and Hungarians in this matter.
If Russia protects the rights of Donbass Russians and Russian speakers, it is the same right with which Hungary always tried to protect and still tries to protect the ca 5 million Hungarians who are stuck in the neighboring states and living under constant pressure from the governments of Romania and Slovakia, and Ukraine.
Russia subdued Hungary in 1956 (Hrushchov) which wanted to break off from the Soviets.
It was of course hated by Hungarians because we wanted be free.
I think you agree with me that the Soviets installed the regimes in Eastern Europe at that time just as the USA does it everywhere in the world. It is just so bad.
However, educated Hungarians know that Russia today is not the same as the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire.
The Hungarian Government is very well avare of the situation of what is going on; at least this is my impression.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peer Szijjarto struck a deal with S. Lavrov about the gas deliveries to Hungary not so long ago.He assessed the situation correctly and now Hungary does not have any kind of energy crisis for more than a decade, unlike Western Europe.
Madame Farkas (the name means literally “Wolf” an you guess which religious background Ms Farkas has) does NOT represent Hungary and the Hungarians in any way, and it is, I think, from you quite incorrect to generalize the behavior of Hungarians based on what Ms. Farkas is saying or thinking.
She is a nonentity to us in Hungary.
At the border with Slovakia, there were in 1920 ca. 1 million of Hungarians, living RIGHT AT THE BORDER with Hungary (Carpato-Ruhenia included, as it was then part of Chechoslovakia)
In 1920, around Hungary lived ca 2 million Hungarians on the other side of the Hungarian border: all together in Slovakia, in Romania and in Serbia.
So this is the same situation as in the Donbass, I guess.
Basically, the situation is the same today, but of course the number of the Hungarians diminished.
The difference: Hungary does not have a world power country (as Russia is) to protect the population from violence, persecution and discrimination.
Here is a news on how Ukraine treats the minorities, including the Hungarians