On October 2, the Armenian-Azerbaijani war entered its 5th day. Forces of the Azerbaijani military, supported by Turkey, continued their attempts to capture the contested Nagorno-Karabakh Region and to dismantle the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which is overwhelmingly populated by Armenians.
Intense artillery duels and Azerbaijani airstrikes are being reported across the entire frontline in Karabakh, and even near some parts of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. Nonetheless, the main clashes still take place in the districts of Fizuli and Jabrayil, where Azerbaijan have achieved their main gains capturing several positions from the Armenians. The Azerbaijani artillery together with Turkish-made and Israeli-made combat drones played a key role in the tactical successes of Azerbaijan on the battlefield.
On October 1, the Armenian military even claimed that 4 Azerbeijani combat drones entered Armenian airspace and 3 of them were shot down, allegedly by the S-300 system. Additionally, the Armenian Defense Ministry claimed that its forces had shot down three Azerbaijani fighter jets and two helicopters. The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan dismissed the Armenian claims, calling them “complete nonsense and fake news.”
It insists that the Armenian side uses claims about attacks on its territory in an attempt to trigger the Collective Security Treaty Organization pact and obtain direct military support from Russia in the conflict in Karabakh, which formally is not its territory. What is even more strange, despite the 5 days of open war, the Armenian leadership has still not started the process for the recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic or the official integration of the region into Armenia. Therefore, it has no even theoretical legal grounds to request CSTO help in a conflict on its territory.
Meanwhile, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, known for its anti-Assad and pro-militant stance in the Syrian conflict, reported that dozens of Turkish-backed Syrian militants had been killed, injured or went missing while fighting against Armenian forces in Karabakh. According to the SOHR, 28 of them were killed and 62 others were injured or went missing. The report alleges that at least 850 Turkish-backed Syrian militants were deployed there. It should be noted that, according to Armenian estimates, their number is about 4,000. France and Russia also expressed their concern regarding the moving of militants to the region. In turn, Azerbaijani and Turkish media and officials insist that Armenia deploys members of Kurdish armed groups, considered to be terrorists by Ankara, to the combat zone. Nonetheless, these claims have not so far been supported by any evidence.
The self-styled Neo-Ottoman Empire of President Recent Tayyip Erdogan is on a full-scale propaganda offensive to instigate an Armenian-Azerbaijani war.
On October 1, the United States, Russia and France released a joint statement condemning the violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, calling on the sides to accept a ceasefire and return to the negotiating table. In response, President Erdogan made a fierce statement slamming the OSCE and claiming that Azerbaijan should continue its military push to capture the Nagorno-Karabakh region and thus the war with Armenia.
“I would like to declare that we are together with our brothers in Azerbaijan in their struggle for the liberation of their occupied land. The path to lasting peace in this region lies through the withdrawal of Armenia from all the spans of the Azerbaijani lands occupied by them,” Erdogan said addressing the Turkish Parliament. “Especially the so-called Minsk trio America, Russia, France and their seeking of a ceasefire in the face of this negative situation, which has been reflected these days because they have neglected this problem for nearly 30 years, is above all not acceptable,” he added.
In the best traditions of Turkish public diplomacy, Erdogan simultaneously accused Armenia of triggering the military escalation. Meanwhile, Turkish state media reported that during the recent phone call Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov that Turkey sees no reason for a ceasefire in Karabakh for as long as the region remains in the hands of Armenian forces.
Earlier, the Turkish leadership at the highest level declared that it is ready to provide any help, including military, to Baku. The Armenian side claims that Turkey is in fact participating in the war on the side of Azerbaijan.
Main Turkish geopolitical goal is to reach the Caspian sea. From there on incorporate Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan into its neo ottoman empire. All the way to west China, the Ughuirs too.
That’s the Turkish thrust east. To the South, take Idlib and North Syria. South-west incorporate Libya. North-west push towards Bosnia, take Macedonia, Kosovo, Albania. Spreading in all directions.
History rhymes they say. Stalin was sending grain trains to Germany while Hitler was organizing Barbarossa. Putin is selling s400 to Turkey, while Erdogan is planning to drive deep into Russia’s soft belly (Kazakhstan).
And be sure that Erdogan is working overtime to get a nuke. This you can count on.
turks and erdogan are biting more than they can chew. They have no allies and everyone knows that they can’t be counted on. Their economy is on the brink of collapse, and they’re fighting on several fronts.
Just check what happened to countries that followed that tactic. Turkey’s downfall isn’t very far.
I see that Armenia is already asking for a ceasefire. Doesn’t look much like the Ottomans are going to collapse, does it? Looks more like they’re going to soon partake of Azeri oil revenues. They’d have had Libya by now if Haftar, likely assisted by the martyr Brother Muammar Gaddafi’s Green Movement, hadn’t held on to Sirte.
“Occupied territory”, after four millennia of Armenian presence…
Washing biography and business plans with gas pipes. I used to think that it would be good for the Russians, as part of SBUN or Chinese (not to sit there as ikebanas), to open a base in the north part of Kosovo that would counter the American/NATO one in the south. Now it is clear to me if even they opened it, I see what the result would be. A lot of talking, announcements, expressed concerns and the net weaves on. We say … dogs bark, caravans pass.
All of Kosovo, north, east, south & west, Djole, is occupied by NATO and Albanian KLA so how on earth are Russia or China supposed to open a military base in “north Kosovo”? The municipalities of the north are are under the boot of the enemy.
If you’re going to rant, at least do so without introducing factually incorrect information.
…..If you’re going to rant, at least do so without introducing factually incorrect information…..Honey, read it first and than say hop. Ad hominem, gain nothing without facts. They could build a base in the north whenever they want because enough our people live there, there is enough place……you know….. to “protect them, people in enclaves and democracy” while their partners are not doing their part of job, but they won’t. In fact they can open it wherever they want although the EU / US do not agree, because Kosovo is still under UN 1244 resolution and they are part of the SBUN, but they will not. Why, what do you think? They can even change the government if they want like their partners are doing, there are enough people and logistic on the ground, but they won’t. Spoiling business partnerships? No chance. They prefer to entertain us with Vučić’s firefighters center in city Nis One call from Putin…. and tens of thousands old guards would arrive in full war readiness, the existing army would cross over to people side. IPAP/SOFA deal would be anulled. But nothing happens. Probably Sun Tzu modifed techniqe? Who are they waiting for, those who don’t know how to fold a rifle, Millennials new age generation. A larger number of women in the uniform of the existing serbian army? Or are they still afraid of Serbian regional hegemony that threatens the international?
Southfront is reporting an air strike on a hydroelectric plant inside Armenia proper which is a viol
The recent and future Erdogan is already up to his Ottoman turban in the war, so it’s unclear what this article is accusing him of doing. As to triggering a war between Armenia proper and Azerbaijan, the Azeris will never be stupid enough to do that because it might (not will, just might, because of the famous Greatest Geopolitical Grandmaster Genius The Universe Has Ever Seen’s restraint) provoke a Russian intervention. They don’t have to anyway because as I’ve been repeating over and over in a war of attrition with Armenia, as long as they have Ottoman protection, they are absolutely guaranteed of a win.
Also, at some point, approaching rapidly, Armenian frontline units will suffer too much attrition to continue and said frontline will collapse totally. At that point Armenian defeat will be so obvious that a panicked refugee flood from Nagorno Karabakh into Armenia is certain. What will happen to Azeri occupied Nagorno Karabakh afterwards is less clear, but I would remind you that there are plenty of headchoppers in Idlib Erdogan would love to settle elsewhere. And right on the Russian underbelly would be a convenient spot for them.
You seem to be hell-bent on an Azeri-turkish victory. Don’t be so quick. Russia is supporting Armenia with intelligence and arms as of now. erdogan is biting more than he can chew.
You seem to lack any comprehension of what I’m saying. Armenian Nagorno Karabakh is doomed without Russian intervention. And the longer Putin waits the more impossible it becomes to try any intervention. It is probably already too late. It was likely too late when Putin didn’t prevent the aggression with a few phone calls.
But I’m sure the Putinist worshippers will find a way of spinning this as some kind of victory on some n-dimensional chess game Putin is playing. “Wait 10135 years and we’ll be proved right, you’ll see!”
“because of the famous Greatest Geopolitical Grandmaster Genius The Universe Has Ever Seen’s restraint”
What’s the point of bashing Putin? He’s not a god, neither perfect, and he cannot control at will what happens everywhere in the World. And that applies to neighbouring countries too, due to several complexities (cultural and religious patchwork in Ukraine, “multivector” diplomacy in Belarus, etc).
If Armenian leaders chose a West-ward orientation and purged their military of key Russian-linked officials, weakening their NKR defending position, that’s not Putin’s fault.
It is totally Putin’s fault that his “restraint” keeps worsening Russia’s strategic position, and in extension the safety of the rest of the world. It is totally Putin’s fault that his shameless appeasement of Erdogan is turning the Ottomans into *the* arbiter of happenings in North Africa and West to Central Asia.
As for Putin not being a god, from the comments of his supporters, you’d surprise me if he weren’t.
“It is totally Putin’s fault that his “restraint” keeps worsening Russia’s strategic position”
We can only surmise a fraction of what the Kremlin considers its “strategic position”. It took decades for Beijing to become a serious challenge to the hegemon, which was possible thanks to acting on restrain and low key. Thus, on this matter, I suggest to take more notice and deliver less conclusions.
because of the famous Greatest Geopolitical Grandmaster Genius The Universe Has Ever Seen’s restraint) provoke a Russian intervention.
Very easy for you to scream “Putin, do something!!!” when it is Russians that will potentially do the dying!
In case you are not aware, the one thing Vladimir Putin absolutely hates is betrayal, and Armenia in 2018 betrayed Russia. Putin and his government, however are well aware that Armenia cannot be allowed to turned into a full NATO vassal. So what to do? Perhaps this analogy can help explain:
*Russia = Old family conglomerate, with Putin as patriarch
*Armenia = Nephew that had nasty divorce at the same time family conglomerate went through hard times (i.e. breakup of USSR)
*Azerbaijan = Vindictive ex-wife of nephew that will do anything to hurt ex-husband
*Turkey = New boyfriend that wants to steal a chunk of the conglomerate
*USA = Gangster that acquires wealth through violence and/or dirty tricks
The patriarch realises the nephew is ambitious yet naive, but he must somehow teach the nephew the consequences of betrayal with “tough love.” He also must defend the family against gangsters and anybody that collaborates with. The patriarch, having the nephew under constant surveillance, decides to let the gangster kick the nephew in the balls & rough him up. The patriarch is watching this on a smartphone while his driver brings him & other heavily armed family members to the nephew’s house. When he arrives the patriarch draws out his sword, with his other family members deploying .50cal machine guns behind him, & tells the gangster, boyfriend, & nephew’s ex-wife: “You’ve made your point. Leave now before I kill all of you!”
As of now, I believe Putin wants Armenia to suffer a bit of damage before mobilising the CSTO alliance to intervene. This way, Putin can administer his “tough love” to Armenia, but still protect his core interests of denying territorial gains to NATO in the Caucasus. If rumours are correct, Putin has covertly inserted Chechen Spetznaz soldiers to reinforce both the Russian base in Armenia, and serve as consultants to the Armenian military.
As for Turkey, I believe Putin should no longer try to befriend Erdogan. Who knows, perhaps Putin is waiting for irrefutable evidence of Azerbaijan & Turkey striking Armenia proper before mobilising CSTO. Once mobilised, perhaps Putin can finally liberate Constantinople?
U recently had an interesting exchange with an Amerikastani who lives in Donbass, in Donetsk to be precise. For some reason he hates me and got abusive, but he and I totally agreed that if Putin had not shown his “restraint” in 2014 and sent in troops, the Nazi coup regime would have been smashed, thousands of people would have been alive, and things would have been much better for everyone (except Nuland and her Nazis). Mr B, to give him his initial, went further than I did to say that it was one of Putin’s greatest blunders.
Now Ukranazistan of course is NATO in all but name and Amerikastani B52 bombers and RC135 reconnaissance planes fly through its airspace right up to the Russian border, compelling Russia to turn on its air defence systems and expose their electronic signatures. Now Ukranazistan is a Nazi cancer in the Russian heart. See what Putinoid “restraint” did?
In Syria Russians are slowly haemorrhaging only because Putin did *not* move to crush the Jihadistan in Idlib, settling for agreement after agreement with Sultan Erdogan, not one of which Erdo has ever shown any intention of keeping.
In Armenia, as I have said over and over again, and you would have known if you’d even bothered to read my comments, *unless* the FSB is a hopeless incompetent, it must have had intelligence about the upcoming invasion. All Putin would have had to do was call his friend Erdogan and tell him that either the invasion would not happen or the appeasement would stop. Instead not only is the situation going belly up but who do you suppose the Armenians will blame for the disaster?
Of course, maybe you’re right and Putin has some master plan, and we only have to wait 9876543210 years to see it come true.
> if Putin had not shown his “restraint” in 2014 and sent in troops, the Nazi coup regime would have been smashed, thousands of people would have been alive, and things would have been much better for everyone
Or, another possibility: Russian would have been painted an aggressor and his international position greatly weakened, economic and military ressources syphoned into Ukraine, with Russian soldiers dying daily on attacks by West-funded nazi guerrillas.
Russia may habve been so much quagmired in Ukraine that maybe helping Syria and Venezuela would have not been possible (much less Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh).
Ah, and Crimea would still be part of Ukraine.
“Armchair generals” are quick to talk about “action”, but they somehow always forgot that any action is followed by a reaction.
How naive it is to think that a military invasion would be enough and all will be happy as in fairytales after that.
Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh itself is proves you wrong: despite complete military victory from the Armenian side in the 1990’s it didn’t secured politically the situation, and sons and daughter still die at war near 30 years after.
Your “solution” for Ukraine would have only ensured that people would still be dying in 2044.
A very different thing would have been if Ukrainian themselves had done the right thing; if the then legitimate president would have acted firmly, as the current legitimate president of Belarus does.
The president of Russian Federation, that you like to smear at, is the same in 2020 and 2014, he didn’t changed. Yet the outcome in Ukraine and Belarus is quite different; think a bit more about what is different in those two cases if it is not Russia, and maybe you may understand why there are different situations.
Russia and Putin did right thing in Ukraine
Let them have their Banderites and to see how much the West love them.
In Armenia, as I have said over and over again, and you would have known if you’d even bothered to read my comments, *unless* the FSB is a hopeless incompetent, it must have had intelligence about the upcoming invasion.
From what I have read, it seems the majority of your comments have two themes:
*Putin is either cowardly, incompetent, and/or a Zionist agent; and
*Moscow must act like it is still the Soviet Union
Here are some hard facts you must accept:
*Russia proper has only 1/3 the population of the Soviet Union
*Russia’s economy is only 1/2 the size of the USSR
*Russia does NOT have direct access into Armenian territory
*You do NOT have access to the same information that Putin does.
Perhaps you are capable of immigrating to Russia & joining its armed forces? Or maybe you have 2000+ tonnes of gold you can donate to the Russian treasury to quickly re-establish & rebuild the Soviet Union?
Just curious, were you screaming at Putin to “do something!!!” in 2014 when Kiev was threatening Crimea? The facts show the Crimea situation turned out favourably for Moscow’s interests. But suppose Putin followed your advice and continued to liberate the rest of Eastern Ukraine:
*How would reconstruction of Eastern Ukraine be financed?
*How to finance the build-up required to fortify Eastern Ukraine?
Remember that in late 2014/early 2015, the price of oil collapsed, which sent a shock to Russia’s revenue streams. Combined with NATO economic sanctions, Russia had a recession, thus it had to re-adjust its economy. Get China to invest massively into Eastern Ukraine? From an international law perspective, Beijing cannot recognise Eastern Ukraine separation without degrading its claim to Taiwan province. And Beijing has challenges securing its borders (and thus the Russian Far East) against the “USA Quad.”
Russia’s recreation of the 1st Guards Tank Army is barely enough to fortify its current territory. If Moscow had openly annexed all of Eastern Ukraine, Russia would have to create a 2nd Guards Tank Army; do you have that kind of money? Do you have a special “time dilation” machine where average people can enter & instantly come out as fully trained & experienced soldiers to operate T-14 Armatas & all the other equipment in this new Tank Army?
As for Putin calling Erdogan to “play nice,” you seem to forget that Turkey is still a member of NATO. Do you honestly think that Putin threatening Erdogan to “play nice” in Syria, Libya, and Armenia would be truly effective? As soon as that happened, do you honestly believe Erdogan would not take the raw transcripts of “Putin threatened me” to NATO headquarters in Brussels, & demand NATO’s Article 5 be activated?
I do not envy President Putin’s position, but I do believe he should minimise relations with Erdogan, as Erdogan has proven to be “Non-Agreement capable.” I have also stated that long term President Putin should, if he has not already done so, quietly accelerate the move of Eurasian Economic Union towards the re-establishment of a reformed & modified version of the Soviet Union. If he can successfully re-integrate Belarus, perhaps Eastern Ukraine, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and other former Soviet republics may quickly follow.
Five days ago, the question was whether Moscow could or should play a ”switzerland” at WWII role in this blood shed.
As days went by the question turns out whether which moral plus PR and which geopolitical assets are at stake.
Although not a police of the world, Putin is not so naive as not to help with weapons and intelligence, with or without plausible deniability, the Armenian side.
Selfie videos of Turkish jihadists in Azerbaijan dressed in Azerbaijani uniforms:
This is from RT reporter Murad Gazdiev’s twitter feed.
These creatures were flown in either via Georgia or Iran. Georgia has denied any involvement. Difficult to believe Iran allowed them through.
I trust Murad. If he says something he knows what he’s talking about. And this reinforces my point: Putinist restraint is enabling the creation of a headchopper ministate in Russia’s underbelly. Whatever the statements coming from Baku, Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh will flee en masse as soon as the Armenian lines collapse, which is only a matter of time, for well founded fears of vengeance at the hands of Azeris, not to mention the Ottoman-jihadi alliance. At that point I seriously doubt that Erdogan’s not going to take the opportunity to seed the place with jihadis. It would be idiotic of him not to, and whatever else he might be he is not an idiot.
“Putinist restraint is enabling the creation of a headchopper ministate in Russia’s underbelly.”
I wouldn’t be so sure of that. Even if hijadis achieved a presence in Chechnya or other Russian regions (something that may take a long time), we should remember how a much weaker Russia dealt with the Chechnya Republic in the 90s. Today, Russia is several times stronger than then and have more allies in the region.
That’s the old 10135 years thing again. Chechnya isn’t the only place jihadis can hurt Russian interests.
And this reinforces my point: Putinist restraint is enabling the creation of a headchopper ministate in Russia’s underbelly.
And how would you propose that Russia send in massive reinforcements without declaring war on Georgia? Do you have any inside information on what Putin is offering Iran for use of its airspace, or do you honestly believe Iran is allowing this to happen because of the “goodness in their hearts?” As the saying goes: Amateurs talk tactics, but professionals talk logistics.
If the Crimea operation is any indication, it is possible Russian Spetsnaz have already embedded into Armenian army months ago. If Moscow has irrefutable proof of Georgia’s complicity in allowing ISIS + al-Qaeda to pass through its territory into Azerbaijan, then Moscow will have more legal basis to involve CSTO, and destroy Georgia and Azerbaijan. But again, is all of that effort truly worthwhile? And who is going to pay for Armenia’s reconstruction? Do you honestly think Moscow needs another disconnected exclave to worry about, like Kaliningrad & Crimea aren’t difficult enough already?
Turkey has provided jihadis to Azerbiajan to be the troops to slaughter the Armenians if NK is overrun.
If you doubt this then remember Turkey opened its Syrian border for jihadis to pour across to attack and slaughter the Armenians of Kesab.
Azerbaijan does have a legal right to regain its territory occupied by Armenia. Crocodile tears from the OSCE after thirty years of doing zero to resolve the conflict was inevitably going to lead to this, even without Erdoğan or Turkey’s involvement in support of Azerbaijan.
More than likely, Armenians will be ethically cleansed from the occupied regions as Azeris were 30+ years ago. This is just rough justice, unfortunately. I doubt that Russia will aid Armenia, so long as Azerbiajan stick to liberating the occupied areas and do not push within Armenia proper.
Unfortunately, Armenia’s leadership could be described as the Poles of the Caucasus. They have displayed extreme incompetence since the late 19th century. This is the real curse of the Armenian people.
Yes. Armenian Nagorno Karabakh is done for. Erdo’s made it a presitge issue and Putin has shown no signs of moving a fingertip. As for the Armenian population in Nagorno Karabakh, they’re probably packing up even as we speak.
A thought provocative comment if found on Zerohedge:
“It is the other way around here:
Turks are helping the West to solve territorial integrity issues of Azerbajan, which are currently preventing AZ from NATO membership
This is going to be a quick win for NATO because both – Armenia and Russia are duped by short-term-ism
The result – Georgia and Azerbaijan join NATO giving the NATO direct access to and control of Caspian sea and creating complete NATO buffer between Iran and Russia. Russians will have to fly to Syria via China.
This is not a skirmish – this is the end to whatever allies Russia may have had in former USSR
He’s right. If Azerbaijan doesn’t join NATO Armenia will, after being left abandoned by Russia (“to teach it a lesson” in the Putinist worshipper jargon). In any case an Armenia minus Nagorno Karabakh isn’t much of an asset for Russia, while a NATO Azerbaijan in its underbelly is a very very bad thing indeed. But I’m sure it’s all the result of some 17th dimension chess game Putin is playing and we only need to wait 5432 years to discover the outcome!
“Putinist worshipper jargon”
Or Armenians betrayed Russia by having a US embassy!
Like the US doesn’t allow the EU vassals to trade with Russia (sanctions), yet the US itself trades with Russia.
Here we have: Armenia betrayed Russia because of US embassy yet Russia has also a huge US embassy.
No difference in mentality and behaviour.
This is nonsense. The narrowest part of the Caspian is 112 miles, with Azerbaijan on one side and Turkmenistan on the other. Their national airspace is 12 miles each so that gives 88 miles wide of international/neutral airspace.
@anonymous Don’t nit pick on airspace, it is Russia that will being surrounded by NATO and cutoff.
It also applies to the sea as well, maroon. Russia’s Kalibre’s can hit Syria from there. At half the range and even from Russia territorial waters, NATO forces will be sitting ducks and NATO knows it.
NATO will be trying to use its takfiris, another matter altogether.
All your calculations are based on the idea of an all out NATO attack on Russia. Not a slow strangulation. Are you seriously claiming that Russia will use those missiles against an economic blockade?
NATO won’t get control of the Caspian no matter who joins…that is just dumb, bad analysis.
Of equal significance is the attempted color-coded regime change op underway in Kyrgyzstan, tied in with elections on Monday.
1) No mention of the close historical links of past US and English ambassadors in Baku. Both were fair Turkish speakers and in the know..US sweetie is now CIA director.
2)Little mention particularly in MSM of strong elec grid link between Russia & Iran.
3)Latest Duran with Alex Mercouris hardly mentions a) present Armenian smooching/kissing with NATO, reducing Russian language & cultural activities. (Lavrov is partly Armenian) On this post that Russia is fed up with Armenian 2 faced antics.
b) Saker pointed out huge US embassy complex in Armenia with large Biological.. warfare section ie., collecting DNA samples (Removed – they are not Slavs. Mod). Furthermore, Mercouris underlines Russian obligation and willingness to back!!! Armenia..??
Hmm.. me thinks, yet again City Of London-Evil Albion are up to tricks again with Erdogan’s Lira on the line.
Details and considerations here too
A reminder too re the use of Azer airways for covert arms smuggling………http://armswatch.com/350-diplomatic-flights-carry-weapons-for-terrorists/
Might influence thoughts of who might support who?
…..bought by Chemring in Belgrade, Serbia, was diverted from its destination – Kabul…… from Yugoimport, Serbia to the Afghani Defense Ministry
Thank you, there was talk about this in Serbia. Vucic hid a scandal that private mobsters took over arm sales from once state-owned company. You may be surprised, but they did business also with Croats and Bosniaks to whom they sold weapons that killed Serbs during the war in Balcans. The last gar…bage, under the protection of the DB yugoslav service. Money does not have nationality, they say.
Looks like Pashinyan has asked for Russian peacekeepers in Karabkh.
Russians protecting Armenians from Turks – it’s a case of deja vu all over again.
If true, the price for this will be significant.
Well, that could be a way out of this mess for both of them
The Azeris obviously do not have the strength to win this war to the end, even with Turkish help
For Armenians, it would be a salvation from further suffering
Areas outside Karabakh that are under Armenian control to return to the Azeris .. and then Aliyev could declare it a great achievement even some limited victory
And it would be best to send STCO forces, Russians and possibly Belarusians to come to the Armenian areas
Kazakhs in the Azeri areas
And then let them negotiate forever if need be
But the Azeris need to get stranded and to have a huge losses to accept this … and the Turks are inciting them because it does not suit Erdogan
In the case of peacekeeping forces, the Turks may ask them to participate and this should be prevented … after all, the Armenians will never accept it because the Turks are a party to the conflict and the Russians are not, at least not openly.
I think diplomacy is working behind the scenes now … we’ll see
But this with Russian and possibly SCTO peacekeepers is a very likely possibility for me
I generally support your analysis but it is way off the mark on this issue. Letting the anti-Turkish sentiment colouring your judgement, I’m afraid. Armenian forces are taking a terrible beating by the Azerbaijanis and Baku has international law 100 per cent on its side. What does it matter that Armenians had a historic presence in the highlands of Karabakh? Stalin obviously didn’t think it did, or the British in 1919. Why would Putin want to save the idiot Pashinyan of the Colour Revolution? He has provoked the Azerbaijanis beyond endurance. Yerevan will be in Russia’s pocket once it is defeated in Karabakh. Stable relations can be established in the region. So a good result for all.
There is no more favorable solution to this problem for Russia.
That‘s the reason she hesitates to engage.
No WIN possible if played correctly – and in this case it is very unlikely that the only way to win is NOT TO PLAY.
But here is a – very keen – solution approach – take it as „Gedanken-Experiment“:
– Iran enters the scenario and (re-) takes Azerbeijan (annexation)
– Russia provides military cover for the operation and protests (a little bit, not so loud, more for the TV shows)
– War ends – if Armenia want‘s, let them slip to NATO (and Turkey) and the US side of life …. creating a lot of problems for the west. They will join the fate of the Ukrainians …. used, but not needed.
Advantage for Russia:
– is not the bad guy in the game – can‘t get sanctioned anymore, at least not for something the Iran did.
– gets rid of a traitor ally it does not really need
– blocks Turkeys access to the Caspian Lake, to the soft underbelly of Russia
Advantage for Iran:
– becomes the major regional power with a lot of influence in the Caucasus
– controls even more oil and gas and petrol resources
– prevents Turkey from becoming the main regional power in the Middle East – Iran and Russia could even „choke“ Turkey on the energy field.
– establishes furthermore a good energy leverage against „the west“. Will be back in business within the next two decades at latest.
Sanctions are no threat to Iran anymore – they are currently at 100 percent. The gains are more important.
Nobody could prevent Iran from entering Aserbeijan – especially not, when Russia delivers the required air cover. Should not be that much – some ships of the Caspian Red Fleet, some support from the Armenian base should be enough.
Ok – that is not a „nice game“ – but was it ever?
Let‘s have a look what is at stake:
If nothing is done right now, Nord Stream 2 will be gone! No doubt.
Azerbeijan and Turkey will deliver whatever Europe demands with regards to petrol / gas and the importance of „Turk Stream“ will be diminished until it is nearly gone.
Russia looses hefty revenue on both „STREAM“ projects and at the same time Turkey a global energy supplier.
Russia looses its current reputation as a super power – especially the „Stans“ will watch very carefully what happens in the Caucasus.
The weak belly of Russia will be attacked in the next decades – without any doubt. By Turkey, with hidden support of the EU and the US.
Russia will lose again and most probably: forever.
The West wins – the century old game – the „Grand Game“ – is over in, let‘s say: 5 decades from now on.
It is nothing less – perfect timing (very bad for Russia) – and now the Grandmaster has a problem to solve.
To do nothing is no option. Not this time. To do something halfheartedly is not option either.
Only my 2cent