Here’s a background info sheet:
“After departing Singapore on April 8 and cancelling a scheduled port visit to Perth, the Strike Group was able to complete a curtailed period of previously scheduled training with Australia in international waters off the northwest coast of Australia,” a U.S. Pacific Command spokesperson
Actual story is PACOM said it was underway…but it wasn’t.
The USS Carl Vinson group had been in the region of Japan and Korea, a month ago, for joint exercises and left Busan on 21 March.
MT @PacificCommand: #USSCarlVinson departs Busan, #SouthKorea for defensive exercises on the Peninsula. #ThirdFleetForward pic.twitter.com/JaJrN38TT1
— U.S. Navy (@USNavy) March 21, 2017
The Australian Navy was participating in Poseidon Cutlass 2017, jointly with the Canadian navy.
No word on any exercises with the US navy within the time period (after 8 April), except for the cancellation of the scheduled port visit to Perth. In fact the Australians had exercised with parts of the US navy at the time.
#POTD HMAS Ballarat conducts a RAS with USNS Pecos while transiting through the South China Sea as part of their SE Asia Deployment #AusNavy pic.twitter.com/rnzIF0kFEI
— RoyalAustralianNavy (@Australian_Navy) April 12, 2017
Intelligence ships from Chinese & Russian navies reported to shadow the US Fleet, first stated in February.
U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) announced on 8 April:”US Pacific Command ordered the Carl Vinson Strike Group north as a prudent measure to maintain readiness and presence in the Western Pacific,” Cmdr. David Benham,(PACOM spokesman).
Last week, Japanese forces reported that they would send destroyers to join the US Fleet when it arrives.
The US navy issued a press release stating that the group will head north – 8 April. Note no time reference given and no destination for Korea either. USS Carl Vinson, would “sail north” from Singapore to report to the Western Pacific.
Trump, in an interview on Fox, on 11 April, said that the US was “sending an armada” and specifically “We are sending an armada. Very powerful. We have submarines. Very powerful. Far more powerful than the aircraft carrier.” This fits in with this week, Japanese Defence Forces reported Russian & Chinese aerial reconnaissance flights over Sea of Japan. Maybe also submarine tracking missions.
The weirdest point is that both North and South Korea interpreted the US Navy intention and assumed that the U.S. carrier group was on its way.
To add to this, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, anonymous South Korean official added that the US Navy was sending another 2 aircraft carriers to the region, the USS Nimitz and the USS Ronald Reagan, both of which weren’t immediately available for operations. The MSM brought the story anyhow and ran with it.
The USS Nimitz is now ready for carrier operations as it has finished the COMPUTEX.
Now the USS Carl Vinson group deployment is extended by a month.
““Our deployment has been extended 30 days to provide a persistent presence in the waters off the Korean peninsula,” Rear Admiral Kilby.
Given the top speed as 30-35 knots, it would take roughly four to five days for the group to reach the peninsula from Indonesia’s Sunda Strait. But without being able to carry out flight operations though. It is feasible but not actually necessary to go that fast.
The US and South Korea are currently preparing for Max Thunder 17 exercises, that started on 17 April. It is an aerial exercise and involves many units.
It takes time to prepare an attack
Anyhthing is possible with Trump and the generals in power!
looks like a bluff that deflated and makes Trumpffffffffffff look like the fool he is in the eyes of worldwide public opinion .A self inflicted wound that takes away any credibility and prestige he had not lost before.
seems he was not really bluffing. he just changed his mind when the other bully fat boy paraded his missiles on the streets and realized one of those could seriously start WWIII. haha…finally he met his perfect match!
China will probably have something to say about any US air strikes.
SK is the one that will probably get stomped in all this
when SK’s economy implodes so does the start of america’s implosion. civil war may take place and the neocons of course will bbe hunted by the common americans. the stupid fool from the TRUMP tower realized this and as we all now know that he is just another neocon’s puppet. he will backpedal, lie, about face and lie some more.
I don’t see that. Trump will attempt (probably succeed) to rally the people for war. He’s more than likely hoping NK attacks so he can claim another “Pearl Harbor” incident. And do a speech in Congress on “another, day that will live in infamy”. And people just like at 9/11 will jump on the war train. He couldn’t care less about the SK people.If NK attacks them its even more excuse for war.The “trillion dollar” question is whether China will support Trump (for whatever idiotic reason),and accept their borders being menaced for decades by a “juiced up” war machine US.And used to blackmail China with fear of attack from opposing the US on anything. Or whether they will do the right thing and help NK at the risk of war with the US.I’m not sure they will. And I think Trump is counting on they won’t. A private word from China saying they would allow Chinese “volunteers” to aid NK just as in 1950. And word from Russia that they would send humanitarian aid (and a bit extra) to NK if the US attacks them. And Trump might have second thoughts.Defeating NK isn’t worth a nuclear war with China and Russia.And a 500,000 Chinese “volunteer army” would turn a conventional war into a nightmare for the US.So once again,the US can be stopped from insanity. But only if other great powers are willing to do the stopping.And I can’t say they are.
So what do Russia do when North Korean subs (they have 78 of them afterall), stationed near the US Carrier Group sink (or at least send a barrage of missiles) at the shadowing Russian (& Chinese) fleet.
Surely this sort of False Flag attack which kills hundreds of Russian & Chinese?) sailors apparently committed by US submarines has to draw Russia (and perhaps China) into a conflict at least with the local US naval forces?
Its very likely the Russians and Chinese would know where any subs near their ships are. And its very unlikely the NK’s would fire on Russian and Chinese ships. False flags seem to be more a US tactic than anyone else.
Very likely they would know yes, but that is slightly besides the point. If some kind of attempted “False Flag” like this were to happen (and I’m not sure you can rule out the North Koreans doing so given their situation at such a time – in conflict with the US) – this would provide a unique opportunity to Russia (& China for that matter) to respond.
Would it not be beneficial longer-run if a few US ships were sunk as a sort of warning for any future action the US might be considering?
Would the fact the missiles were fired from a sub near the US fleet provide the Russians/ Chinese with cover to argue they assumed it was a US sub connected with the fleet firing these missiles off because it was in fact the US that launched the attack on North Korea in the first place?
I assume when Lavrov and co. openly talk about the low ebb of Russian-US relations they mean it – and what that also means is that trust is low.
Sure, the warning of sinking a few US ships isn’t needed now, but if the US were to engage in military action against North Korea without being opposed – what is next?
The other thing is – if the US initiated this military action against North Korea rather than the other way around – then every casualty of the conflict is on the head of the US – because it was ultimately their decision to launch the conflict.
The Russians/ Chinese if they did decide to respond to such a provocation – ie, the potential North Korean False Flag – could reasonably argue – hey, we didn’t start this conflict – you (US) did. Everything that happens as a result is therefore your fault.
If you hadn’t launched the assault we wouldn’t have been led to assume you were also trying to clear the naval space by dispatching potentially hostile forces like our naval assets. We assumed that was what you were doing – so we responded.
Wink wink, Nod nod.
The other thing is – I wouldn’t dismiss the potential actions of North Korea in any conflict.
Surely the biggest aim that North Korea would have with any conflict against the US would be to draw Russia/China into the conflict on their side – as that could pre-empt the US destroying them.
North Korea already has a defence pact with China – so presumably they would call on this pact. In regards to Russia, I’d be willing to bet they might try a totally different tact.
If North Korea did sink a Russian ship – and the Russians suspected (or knew) it was the North Koreans – would it be more beneficial for Russia to announce they know it was North Korea did this and announce they were allying with the US to destroy Kim’s regime? (And potentially drive a wedge between themselves and China in the process – isn’t that just what the US and Western allies want to happen?) or would it be more beneficial for Russia to “go along” with the narrative of the North Korean False Flag – ie, that it was the US, and therefore respond militarily against the US.
As you can see – calling it out as a False Flag even if they know that’s what happened – might not be the way to go.
As for what North Korean subs could do – surely they are spread far and wide – at least in the Western Pacific – I’d also like to know – do these North Korean subs have the capability to approach the US West Coast in any manner?
If so – there are a few juicy nuke plants they could target – although undoubtedly anyone on a North Korean sub approaching the US West Coast would be well aware they were on a kamikaze mission – so would they do it?
There are several reasons “why not” to do that. First,they (Russia and China) have a sense of morality lacking in the West today. I’m not saying they are Angels,just that they aren’t evil. Second,they don’t want war. So while there will probably be a war. It won’t come from them pushing for it. And third,they don’t do lying very well.Probably because of being more honest than the West today. Lying doesn’t come naturally to them,and they are really bad at it.It comes very naturally do Western leaders. Probably because they have so much practice at it. They have mastered the ability to be two-faced at any time. Not that they are so good we can’t catch them at it. We do here regularly. But since the Western populations are so used to having their leaders lie. They can’t tell for certain when they are lying. The old saying “If his lips are moving,he is lying” comes to mind regarding Western leaders.And that saying should be our guide when hearing Western leaders say anything.
Trump will be impeached at some stage and President Kushner will take over
Is the USSCarl Vinson or the USSNimitz or the USSRonald Reagan radioactive? I heard we have a
bunch of ships that are radioactive, including the crew, and have to be refitted or sunk. Maybe that
is why the news is so murky.
That would be the USS Ronald Reagan, which Pence just visited.
At “Crossroads” test series they blasted ships at anchor at Bikini – and attempted to re-board and decontaminate them.
It didn’t work out as they expected. Instead they discovered that ships subjected to serious fallout and/or blast, cannot be decontaminated. Everything gets contaminated – the men, the equipment, and the food chain begins to concentrate the unstable particulates in the higher critters…like? Yes. Us. About all you can do safely is leave, fast, and take nothing with you. Sink the ships (they mostly didn’t sink when they were blasted)
Well, the Raygun got swept by the particulate cloud from Fukushima when (Gundersen says) there was a prompt criticality resulting in the disintegration into the environment of the exploding core. A prompt criticality is an atomic explosion, but not nearly as powerful as a fast criticality …
Read “No Place to Hide” – about Crossroads.
I think of your post as sheer war poetry. A beautiful broadside!
It is speculated, but not confirmed by the authorities (don’t hold your breath either, they stonewall on Everything!) that a “prompt moderated criticality” occurred, possibly as the result of a shock wave from the hydrogen explosion that the authorities insist on calling it. “Prompt” refers to the type of neutrons involved. In a fission event, there is a burst of neutrons flying about, causing further fissions (in an exponential increase in the case of a prompt criticality). These are the “prompt” neutrons, and they are followed by a gradual release of other neutrons due to radioactive decay, the “delayed neutrons.” These must all be accounted for in keeping a nuclear reactor running smoothly.
A “prompt moderated criticality” is a runaway fission event that doesn’t get too far away because of some moderating factor. Typically, the heat released causes a powerful explosion that sends the critical mass flying to bits, immediately ending the criticality. It is a nasty radioactive accident, but not an atomic bomb, in which a “prompt unmoderated criticality” is deliberately caused by keeping the critical mass together somehow until the whole thing vaporizes.
There is alot of “testing” going on. What they can get away with. The reactions to false moves. They may be throwing alot of sh!t to see what sticks, or to muck up the waters to obfuscate their real moves.
More of the burn people out with stupid sh!t he does or twits. People get fooled enough times they start to let their guard down.
As I see it ,China is between a “rock and a hard place” in the Korean problem. And the US is probably quite pleased at that. Anything China does there has pain involved. If they support the US they will see US troops and bases on their borders. And a “triumphant” US ready to do more to contain China.The biggest prize will be for the US the Korean Peninsula “united” under a pro-US,military stooge.With bases facing China’s heavy industrial area. And increased control over China’s sea coasts.
But the secondary prize in the long run is possibly more important for the US. China is surrounded by many different states. None of them except Russia and North Korea might fight with them in case of war. At best some would declare neutrality,but the others would join the US. And by “knocking off” NK,that will leave only Russia to fight with them (probably they would. But its not a certainty without a formal alliance between them).With NK defeated all the other states near China will “get the message”,oppose the US and be destroyed.So China will loose influence there. And “if” (and I believe it is certain and not an if),the US plan is to contain China.Ultimately breaking her apart as they hope to do with Russia.Then defeating and conquering NK is a “good first step”. From there its likely we’ll see more bullying over the South China Sea islands. And those disputed with Japan.Then its a good guess the US will reestablish their “old” relationship with Taiwan.And recognize it as a separate country from China.What would China’s response be (what could it be) to those moves.Without allies (except possibly Russia),with US bases on the border. There is not much.without actually going to war,China could do.
One way of looking at the US/China relationship today,is economic.The 2015 statistics for China’s world imports was $1,681,670,816.14 and exports were $2,281,855,922.48. Showing a healthy trade surplus. The US figures for trade with China in 2016 were 115,775.1 billion dollars in exports to China from the US. And 462,813.0 billion dollars in imports to the US from China. Leaving a surplus for China of 347,037.9 billion dollars. That is a huge amount of money. Considered to be around 18% of China’s World trade. And China holds as of this year 5% of the US national debt,1,051 trillion dollars. So who has the advantage there.If China opposes the US globally “too much”, there is the chance the US will default on their debts to China. And cut trade drastically.That might be a hardship for the US short term. But long term buying cheap goods from other countries (India,Southeast Asia,Korea,Japan,Taiwan,etc) Chinese goods could be replaced.But it would mean the loss to China of 18% of trade. And over a trillion dollars in money owed.So that is a massive hit.
Now, my intention by highlighting those trade statistics is not to worry us. I see the loss of that trade as almost a certainty in the first place. With little that can be done about it. Trump’s “MAGA” plans. And the growing anti-Chinese feeling in the US, its only a matter of time.China though, through more massive development of her internal trade.With the “Silk Road” plans. And just by increasing her Worldwide trade (especially with Russia, Latin America,and Africa),can replace the US trade. It will be a short term problem for China.But long term,China would be better off. Depending on trade with a country that wishes for,and works to destroy you,is never a good idea.Something I keep pointing out with Russia’s dependence on the EU trade as well.
This brings us back to the first issue,North Korea. The downside of accepting US destruction of one of her only allies.And allowing the US to use trade as blackmail,is a bad idea for China. If the US succeeds once with that,they will do it over and over again.The best choice for China is to stop it at the start.Accept the risks,and not let her situation get any worse.She can probably find a willing pardner in Russia if she took that stand.
And at the end you highlight why it might be worth responding to a North Korean False Flag – even if they know that’s all it is.
In fact – it’s even possible they could arrange for North Korea to do it on their behalf!
@ Uncle Bob 1. China is always willing to partner Russia especially in trade. It’s Russia that is unwilling. It is still suspicious of and alleged that China still have irredentist attitudes towards the Russian Far East, Siberia and Mongolia, despite Xi announcing in Moscow that she had let go of those lands “forever”.
Maybe more Chinese trade should be channeled to areas West of the Urals then. That would give no concerns in Russia (even if the concerns you mention are groundless). Though from what we see on RT Russian officials constantly are saying they are asking Chinese companies to pardner with them on “this or that” project in the Far Eastern and Arctic regions. So I don’t understand your worries.
This Carl Vinson escapade once again shows that trump’s role in the tuppence regime is little more than that of the showman selling the tuppence regime to the suckers. He is obviously clueless about what they are doing, outside the general outline he needs for his sales job. Essentially, he is raygun’s mouth atta he’d to dan quayale’s brain. The ideal sort of person the zionazis would want as their face for their last hurrah at being world hegemon.
The tuppence regime quislings are planning major escalation against NK, they are quietly moving military assets there. I know of a marine who’s unit was all of a sudden given notice of immediate transfer to the region.
Yes I agree. Trump doesn’ t know what’s going on. Someone is pulling the strings though…
So it is all muscle flexing by anglosaxon evil 5 eyes with main plot being hatched by the most evil of them all_england.
Russia never learns that she is next on chopping block after Korean war.
I think Russia knows that full well.
Afterall, Obama/ Trump etc. play checkers and Putin plays chess don’t forget.
Isn’t that the story?
I think it’s Monopoly (with Monopoly money) instead of checkers, which is too cerebral for this country these days; the Chinese play Go. The UK seems to turn everything they touch into some Agatha Christie Murder Mystery, with assumptions of daring-do, exploding cigars, and british cars that can swim underwater. The chess player watches patiently and still has his queen.
What do you expect the US to do when NK constantly launches missiles with the intent to destroy US allies (by legal treaty) who have no intent to attack it while constantly threatening them with nuclear annihilation? The whole world should unite and confront this NK ghoul now! We can make a deal about how to liberate the North Korean People.
You do have all the US regime’s talking points down good. Of course they aren’t true. But the US never let’s a little think like that concern them.The NK’s do not “test” their missiles at foreign targets. Their tests are inside NK’s territorial waters,or in international waters.I suppose you think the US has all those troops in SK for no reason too. And every year has war games where they practice the invasion of NK with SK troops aiding them.The NK’s have asked for years to talk with the US about signing a non-aggression pact. And during the 1990’s agreed to curtail their self defense nuclear program. But the US didn’t keep to that agreement and then under Bush canceled it all together.The NK’s rightly see their nuclear program as the reason the US hasn’t pulled an “Afghanistan,Iraq,or Libya” on them.They make counter threats when threatened by the US regime’s. Which happens regularly.If the US wanted peace with NK they would set down and talk with them. Its as simple as that. After suffering a holocaust during the Korean War. And then for 64 years being constantly threatened by the US. You can bet they are frightened. And see nuclear weapons as their protection from another holocaust.And they are correct in that thinking.But if the US does insanely attack them. I’d say the odds are 99% they will fight back with everything they have.They have no other choice.
Hi Uncle Bob,
Let me suggest some counter-arguments:
1) the North Korean Communist Party caused the Holocaust of the North Korean people by its naked aggression by the unprovoked invasion into South Korea on June 25, 1950-killing thousands of South Koreans in the process. Even Mao and Stalin had some misgivings about this plan.
2) 1954 Negotiations broke done due to North Korean intransigence on how to conduct free and fair elections.
3) 1974 negotiations were instigated by The North Korean Communist Party without including the South Korean Elected Government and was an attempt to get a deal from a weakened Vietnam War weary U.S..
4) the US troops in South Korea are there to deter future Naked aggression by the North Korean Communist Party.
except the South Korean stooge invaded the North, took 2 towns, and it took the North 2 days to counter-attack. Which they did, sweeping the US away like dust.
The devastation was from LeMay and napalm, which he used to burn down Korea and kill, I believe he himself said, something like a million people.
How, other than by the self-lobotomy of the US people, does History’s biggest war criminal state, the USA, get away with the illusion of being a do-gooder nation?
Those US and SK talking points have been debunked before I’m afraid. But its important to remember that South Korea began the mass slaughter of pro-Communists in SK in 1949,before the war.And SK was itself a dictatorship set up by the US that lasted for decades in SK. The US troops aren’t in SK for defense against NK. They are there as a threat to both NK and SK. And as a form of US control.They of course will claim differently,that’s what they do.Even when the US and Russia were “friends” during the Yeltsin era. US troops still (and even today) occupied Germany. What was their “protection” duty then. Then and now,they are there as a threat against Russia and to control Germany.The same is true for US troops in SK.
Bullshit, US propaganda at his best. NK has the right to defend themselves and the only language the criminals in USA understand is brutal force.
You need to show to them that it will cost them a lot, Libya is a shithole now thanks to the international coalition of saviors. Gaddafi trusted their partners when he dismantled their anti-air weapons and the rest is history.
You are very naive or behind an agenda when you try to promote that North Korean people need to be liberated. Nobody in the OTAN or their puppets gives a single shit about them or their lives, they have geopolitical goals plain and simple.
NK is still in a war with USA and SK is a colony, they do what their master said. There’s a lot of propaganda from the south, they get caught in the middle of their lies all the time but they always have a new lie to replace the last one.
Please review when the US, South Korea have held their military exercises. Note the rice planting season is April, May while the harvest is in August.
Guess what, the exercises almost always fall during these time periods. This forces North Koreans to mobilize some 1.2 million soldiers, when they should be in the field planting or harvesting.
The US is forcing starvation on to the NK population. This was the reason for NK nuclear weapons investments, to reduce mobilization costs.
This has been going on since 1954. A little long to convert an armistice to a peace treaty…
As far as I can gather NK is the equivalent of China’s attack dog. What we see, the coal story, Xi and trump etc etc is kabuki , china will never submit . The game plan is get the attack dog to frighten the 5eyes even maul them quite considerably while verbally breaking up the fight while, undercover supporting NK all the way. Plausible deniability it’s called. Both Russia and china can superficially sit on the side lines while allowing their attack dog to maul the US .
You can bet that there are a large number of nuclear armed NK subs floating around and if it kicks off they will cause so much damage to the US that peace terms will be agreed. NK will take the blow , china will insist that the damage is proportionate so as to avoid the worst of the potential hazards , many of the US assets destroyed and much of their high tech weapons displayed and you can bet the R and C will be watching it all avidly .
So far better a war between NK and US than one between R, C and the US.
In many ways, the trump reversal indicates the problems the US are facing are so huge that maybe a war is the only way out. Syria, failed because it pits R vs US . Donbas is another kabuki, rather than R directly facing the Nazis , the Donbas offers plausible deniability , they are facing a fascist force and need all the help they can get, and they’ve been getting it……
So will NK , the US can not win such a conflict, they will suffer depletion of arms and resources and take serious blows that will set the US back so far that never again will they be able to threaten world peace .
It’s clear war is on the horizon, it’s been brewing for years , the aim is to minimise tha damage as the crazed US in its death throws lashes out.
Wouldn’t it be for the Zionist number one vassal state, the USA, who since WW2 considers to be South Korea and Japan to be its de facto colonies – on the behest of Zion, of course – the whole, now for decades ongoing, farce concerning North Korea would never have existed.
Kim Jong-un and family, one has to know, are CIA assets. This fact hinders North Korea to fully interact and trade with its neighbors natural partners China, Japan, South Korea and Russia and slows down the huge potential for prosperity and abundance not only in North Korea, but the whole fast-growing, highly productive, prosperous region as well
What about Trump’s sabre rattling and trolling tweets? Yawn. And one more time, yawn.
Sorry, WW3 enthusiasts, you have to look elsewhere. Except for even heavier Pentagon presence in South Korea, this current round of fake-bashing of fake Kim Jong-um will be another scripted zero event. A lot of noise, the usual hysteria reflex, and… nothing.
Thanks for putting the backgrounder together LeDahu. I’ve read somewhere that there was a combined US-Japan-SK ASW exercise ‘up north’ at the time Vinson was supposed to be there. Do you have anything further on that?
I’ve always wondered why Trump embarked on his gunboat diplomacy. Now I think I’ve found the answer.
The Axis of Evil — Syria, Iran and NK. George Bush? No. Avigdor Lieberman
Could our presumptions about this current bout of American gunboat diplomacy be wrong? That is, it’s less about the US-China relations, and SK and Japan’s security, but more about Israel’s? Have the treasonous Ziocons got America to do Israel’s dirty work again?
This columnist over at Veterans Today thinks so. “Lindsey Graham, John McCain and the Trump administration are provoking a war with North Korea and Iran because it is good for Israel, not the American people.” Pretty strong stuff and he’s backed it with references.
I’m aware that NK and Israel have never seen eye to eye — in fact they’re positively hostile towards each other. But I didn’t know that during the Korean War Ben-Gurion contemplated sending troops to support SK/UN forces even before establishing diplomatic relations in 1962. That’s according to an SK ambassador to Israel. See:
The Jewish Virtual Library says under the heading of ‘North Korea Military Threat to Israel’:
“Iran is North Korea’s principal customer for weapons and technology, and it has been the site of a number of missile tests carried out on North Korea’s behalf. North Korea may have sold one of its most sophisticated missiles, the Nodong, which has the capability of carrying nuclear weapons more than 1200 kilometers, to Iran. Meanwhile, the Shahab-3 missile under development in Iran — with a range of 1,300 kilometers — is reportedly based on the Nodong. North Korean experts are also believed to have helped Iran with its centrifuges.”
and adds without a trace of irony:
“More worrisome even than the missile transfers is the threat of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. According to the Defense Department, Pyongyang is currently capable of producing large quantities of nerve, blister, and blood chemical warfare agents. These could be easily transferred to nations or terrorists.”
I’ve said in another thread that China was in the loop as far as this Vinson caper is concerned and that Trump and Xi may have come to an understanding re NK and and the US ceding to some of China’s ambitions in the region. It will affect the US’s hegemony and may even affect US interests but hey I don’t think those Israel-firsters in the USG give a fig.
At least we wont have to hear bibi’s litany: ‘NK is just six months from getting the bomb’
There won’t be an attack, Russian and Chinese ships were tracking the carrier and listening to everything onboard, under water the 25th anti ship submarine division from Okhotsk is performing its mission of tracking the enemy surface ships near Russian pacific coast, and sinking them with Udaloy I destroyers, with China south and Russia north, the US cannot mount an effective strike except from a southern direction. Everyday the US loses the ability to project power by AD efforts from China and Russia. The MOAB strike was a desperate last resort to show the world the US still has teeth. Except Russia and China have been aware of this weapon system for years and it did not frighten anyone. The US operates from a tactical local perspective once its forces are forward deployed. It has never counted on the idea that it would not be able to deploy forces due to stiff opposition from a prepared enemy. That is why the US has no strategy. Strategy is planning and preparing for scenarios, however the US never had a strategy and that is why they are frightened that the war won’t be as easy as just moving ships around on a map. They need strategy and with this leadership they are deperately lacking it.
If you are going to throw the first punch, make sure it is a knockout punch, otherwise your enemy will be pretty angry and he will most certainly succeed in knocking you out…
USA will change to peaceful nation only by huge economical or/and military catastrophy. Not by talks and democratic process. It will be not much different agony than that of Germans in 1942-45.
When you ally yourself with another nation. I believe your people should share their interests. Or consider that your peoples interests are protected by that alliance. So that brings up the question as to why Australia is tying themselves to the US. If the US wins in the Korean crisis,Australia will not possibly “share that win”. But if the US loses,Australia will certainly share that defeat. China is vital to Australia’s economic future.Australia’s economy wouldn’t survive on US trade.But it would on trade with China.By joining themselves at the hip with the US.Joining the US against China’s interests,they are committing economic (at the least) suicide.North Korea is far from them.They have no interests in that area.And their interests in China is only for trade.Butting themselves unwanted into East Asian affairs they very well may see China decide anything Australia wants to sell them can be bought elsewhere (as it can be).And then the economy collapses.It is a disastrous mistake for Australia.Which has spent years remaking their image in Asia as a state “native” to the region.And not a colonialist outpost any longer. Now to foolishly throw all that away is a horrible mistake.Especially to curry favor with the country declining as a great empire. While angering the country rising as a great empire.
I am looking with raising surprise to this kabuki theatre.
Yes, there is a UN decision that the Korean peninsula should stay non-nuclear, but can we also imagine that NK feels threatened by the US?
If the US military really would show up at the NK borders, sabre rattling, the question arises what they can do. Shelling some facilities? Well, all important facilities in NK are far underground. They have learned from the Korean war in the fifties.
I can imagine that the US cannot go back, and with that they will make the second historical strategic mistake in just a few weeks.
The first was the striking with cruised missiles of an Syrian airbase, following a very poor acted false flag. The net effect: it costed the US 70 milllion USD to launch them, and did for only some 2 million USD damage. Over 30 Tomahawks are now lying at the bottom of the Mediterrenean. And most important: effectively, there is now a no fly zone over Syria, but now imposed by the Russian forces. It might be the tipping point in this insane war.
When the US starts shelling NK, they won’t hesitate for a second to sink a number of US Navy ships. They can and will do that. They did that in 2010 with a SK ship also. The humiliation for the USA will be huge.
I can imagine that this will be the point that China (probable accompanied by Russia) will step in to forge a deal. The solution can be so practical: NK stops with further development of ICBM’s and nuclear tests, and SK and the US stop their yearly military invasion tests right before the very eyes of NK. Try to imagine the China and NK Navies, doing such tests before the shoreline of California.
There are two things that China will try to avoid at all costs. First, they will never allow that American soldiers (‘advisors’, ‘trainers’, yeah right) will be at their borders.
(My guess is, that Russia will eventually not allow that either. Good luck, the few thousand soldiers of NATO members parading in Poland and Lithuania. You have no idea.)
Therefore the Republic of NK will be saved by China to avoid that.
Secondly, my guess is that China will want to avoid that NK will start attacking US military bases in SK and Japan. NK is quite well able to do that.
The result will be a nightmare to China: the re-militarization of Japan.
Do not underestimate how Chinese people think of Japan. I have been in China a few years ago, and I was really surprised about the utter hatred I have met with normally friendly Chinese people about Japan. It came out of their bones, and I guess they have been raised with that. If you take the effort to search for what Japan has done in China in the ’30 and ’40 you might get an idea what it is based upon. Maybe a re-militarizationof Japan is something that not only China should be afraid of.
But the humiliation of the US Navy can hardly be avoided. And that can have serious consequences. When a poor little state can beat them, what about the rest of the world? And the USA also wants to attack Iran (in order to please their Israeli and Saudi ‘friends’), that can hit about every US military base in the Middle East? Good luck with that.
These are interesting times. Worrysome also, I’m afraid.
What to think about a UN resolution for or against something? My thinking is I would only “obey” something like that if it wasn’t against my need for survival.If it was ,well “they can pound sand” would be my response.We all know how those resolutions come about (or at least we should know by now). The US and the West force the small weak states to sign on to those,and they convince Russia and China,that the resolution is either good for them too. Or like with Libya,they promise not to use the resolution to do things they promise not to do.So since we know how they get them passed. I think very little of them.I think Russia and China ever agreeing to ones they themselves don’t propose,is idiotic,but they didn’t ask me I suppose.
Your idea of what China and Russia should do is excellent. I hope it turns out that way.But frankly I wouldn’t count on it. The US is so used to getting away with bombing any country they don’t like.Poor weak helpless ones,of course.I don’t think they will change.Its like a drug addict needing “that fix”.They always get away with it,so why stop. They bombed Serbia into submission. And while the Serbs shot some of the NATO planes down. They ,nor anyone else struck them back.No one counter bombed NATO states,or even NATO bases.Of course we could say,that would have been crazy,it would start WWIII. But that is the problem.A truly evil group like the US/NATO counts on the fear of that,to get away with their crimes.
And Serbia was only the start for them.The addict got their first “fix”,and it felt “so good”.And they haven’t stopped since.The Israelis saw the “high” the US got off of the bombing drug,and started taking it too.They thought nothing of bombing Syria,bombing Iraq,bombing Lebanon,bombing Gaza. Why not,no one stops them,and they love that “high” too. Not to be outdone by the Israelis the US bombed Iraq at the “drop of a hat” for years before the Iraq Invasion. Then they got an overdose of the drug.They bombed Sudan,Somalia,Afghanistan,Libya,oh how good it must have felt.Why stop,no one stood up to them.No one seemed to even care.
Well now North Korea is a different affair. Unlike those other countries,the North Koreans won’t “just take it,and walk it off”. They don’t have the fear the others did.The US hits them.And I’m 99% sure they will hit back.They aren’t about to let the US get a new “high” off of bombing them. I don’t suspect they’ll win. But before its over the US will be bruised and bloody. They aren’t going to knell and kiss the ring.The US hasn’t ever had to deal with a “scrappy” little fighter like that (at least since Vietnam).All their other small opponents have used “common sense” thinking “we can’t beat them,and striking back could make it worse on us”. The North Koreans would only think “that ass hit me,let me at him”.Not worrying about anything else.
So the day the US does bomb North Korea,if they are that foolish.Is the day (or the next) the North Koreans strike them back.And I’d be moving as far from the border if I could before the first strike on North Korea came,if I lived there.And if I lived near US bases in Japan. I’d find a reason to take an extended trip somewhere away if I could.The rest of the US’s victims,current and future (yes Syria,Iran,Russia,and China,I’m talking to you) couldn’t do much better than look at the North Korean defense attitude to being attacked.It could save them from the “death by a thousand cuts” that is the US’s specialty. No more “going along at the UN”,no more “just take the hit”.Unless they stop the “feel of the high” the US gets they will never stop using the bombing drug.Of course the US’s addiction is so bad. The “come down” may be hard.But “too bad,so sad” it has to be that way.
I keep seeing the US threaten North Korea with their trademark statement of “all options are on the table”. I believe that the North Koreans need to turn that around on them. Instead of their standard statements about the US aggression.They should say,”in dealing with the US aggression,all options are on the table”. The US has gotten away with that trademark threat way too long. Their opponents need to take that away from them.It sounds ominous when the US use it. Which of course is why they say it. So turn that ominous threat around on them.Its much better than just using other threats against them.Say “while we seek peace always.The US needs to understand that all options are on the table dealing with their aggression”. That would be sure to upset them.And take away their ability to use threats like that. People would see the US as fools (even more than people do now).In the use of propaganda the North Koreans need to “up their game”.