Analyses

Could the Ukraine, backed by NATO, attack Russia?

On at least three occasions I tried to dispel the notion that the US/NATO could attack Russia or Russian forces in the Ukraine (see here, here and here).  I tried to show that geography, over-reach and politics made a conventional attack impossible and I tried to show that a nuclear attack, whether tactical or strategic, could not succeed.  There is a new theory which is apparently going around now which

Ukie hunt on Russian journalists and the possibility of war

It is no secret that the junta in Kiev hates the Russian media.  This is hardly surprising considering that with a few extraordinarily rare exceptions, the western press corps walks in lockstep with Psaki’s narrative about this war.  So Russian journalists have been beating up, kidnapped, searched, detained, tortured and, of course, murdered.  And just in case anybody would still hold on to the belief that this policy is the

A scorecard for the US “lukewarm war” on Russia – strategic and tactical levels

First, I have to explain the title: “A scorecard for US war on Russia”: what we are witnessing today is beyond any doubt a US war on Russia, except that it that is is neither quite “cold” nor “hot”: it’s tepid, lukewarm.  Not for the people dying of course, but by it’s choice of methods.  It is not a Cold War because people are dying, because tanks, artillery and airpower

Why the US-Russian nuclear balance is as solid as ever

Ok. Today I am going to address the nuclear threat canard one last time.  After that, I will just ignore this topic which, frankly, is a waste of time.  Here are two comments which were recently posted on the blog: “Security experts in the U.S. do not agree that Russia has a credible nuclear deterrent. The story is that the Russian nuclear force is in disrepair and that the U.S.

Media rage in Russia – how long can the Kremlin resist it?

It is always tricky to try to get a sense of what is happening in a country by parsings its media as there is often a big disconnect between what the talking heads say and what most of the people really feel.  And yet, this can a useful exercise in the following circumstances:A) The media is pretty tightly controlled by the regime in power at which point is can be

Calling out the crazies (who still might get what they want)

I have to say that I am rather shocked and even appalled at the level of anger and vitriol expressed in some of the comments posted in response to my attempts to explain why Russia has not intervened so far in the war in waged by the junta against the people of Novorossiia.  While at least two posters are clearly getting back at me personally because of things I wrote

Making sense of Obama’s billion dollar hammer

You probably heard it by now: Obama has pledged a billion dollars to what my “beloved” BBC called “European security”. The official name for this initiative is the “European Reassurance Initiative”.  You see, Obama and the BBC apparently believe that Europeans are really terrified and that they believe that the Russian tanks might roll into Warsaw, Athens, Rome or Lisbon at any time.  The good news is that Uncle Sam

Does Russia really need the Ukrainian military-industrial complex?

I really like the Asia Times, but the article I saw in it today left me wondering how it could have gotten past the editors. The article in question is Ukraine: A military-industrial complex to die for by Gregory J Moore. While I most definitely encourage you to read the article in its entirety, its thesis is simple: the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is, if not vital, then at least crucial

Russia, Chechnia and the Ukraine – the *choice* to keep hoping for the impossible

As you probably know, the two Russian journalists who worked for the LifeNews, Oleg Sidyakin and Marat Saichenko, were finally freed and brought back home via Grozny in Chechnia.  You might even have heard that the President of Chechnia, Ramzan Kadyrov, played a special role in their liberation.  I think that the importance of this event might be under-estimated by many observers and I want to briefly comment on that.It

Calling things by their proper names in the Ukraine

Life often seems like one long never ending Asch conformity experiment: even when there is overwhelming evidence that something is “A”, the media, and those zombified by it, confidently state “non-A”.    That this kind of doublethink is also applied to the conflict in the Ukraine should surprise nobody, but it is still important to “call a stone and stone” and to give a clear and unambiguous characterization of what has

How the conflict in the Ukraine is seen by the rest of the world

Today I will begin by looking at how the Ukrainian conflict is covered in the international media thanks to this blog’s network of 55 correspondents and translators in the following regions: Europe, North America, South America, Middle-East, Russia/CIS, Indian Subcontinent, Far East Asia, Oceania and Africa. Below I am reproducing some reports I selected form those which our correspondents sent me.  This is our first try at that, so we

A look in the long distance: who will have to pay for “Ukraine v2”?

I just wanted to mention here a topic which is not often discussed in the western press but which does pop-up with some regularity in the Russian press.  Let’s set aside the current events and ask ourselves the following question:Sooner or later there will be some kind of state in what used to be the Ukraine until 2014.  The Crimea is gone forever to Russia, that is certain.  A “People’s

The Donbass referendum – yet another abject failure of US foreign policy

The exact results of the referendum in the Donbass are still unknown, but the following three facts are undeniable:1) Participation was extremely high.2) The yes vote won by a landslide.3) The neo-Nazi junta tried hard, but failed to disrupt the vote.We also know that the validity of this referendum will be rejected by a crushing majority of UN members.  Ditto for the regime in power who has already denounced it

Remembering the important lessons of the Cold War

If anything the past 24 hours have proved, once again, that the US and NATO are opposed to any form of negotiations, confidence-building measures or any other type of negotiations with the Donbass and with Russia.  Even though Putin tried really hard to sound accommodating and available for a negotiated solution, the US/NATO policy is clearly to provoke and confront Russia and its allies in every imaginable way.  The same

Putin offers Obama a gambit the latter cannot refuse

I have to admit that today’s move by Putin caught me completely off-guard.  My first impression was that by asking the folks in the Donbass to postpone the referendum, Putin was basically tossing aside a valuable bargaining chip.  Even more disturbing was his apparent backing for the upcoming May 25th presidential election.Let me also say, however, that the notion of Putin “caving in” never even crossed my mind if only

Yet another totally crazy idea from Banderastan

Every passing day bring it share of utterly nonsensical news out of the rump-Ukraine aka “Banderastan”.  Today is not exception, see for yourself this headlines from the BBC’s website: Ukraine reinstates conscription as crisis deepens Sure enough, for the zombified TV watchers this might sound like something meaningful.  But is it?  Let’s recall where the current Ukrainian military comes form by remembering what the Ukraine’s military was at the moment

The US plan for the Ukraine – a hypothesis

Listening to Lavrov today I came to the conclusion that the regime in Kiev was indeed about to try to attack the eastern Ukraine.  It’s not only Lavrov, the Russian Internet is on “red alert” and chock-full of rumors and speculation about an imminent attack.  This begs a number of questions:1) Why would the junta in Kiev so overtly renege on the Geneva agreement?2) Why would it attack when the

How the Ukrainian crisis will eventually bring down the AngloZionist Empire

There are many theories out there about what exactly caused the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Some say that it is Ronald Reagan with his Star Wars program.  Others say that this is the war in Afghanistan or the Polish union Solidarnosc.  Other popular theories include the failure of the Soviet economy, the drop in oil prices, the inability to produce consumer goods, the yearning of many Soviets for western-style

The thing which everybody seems to be missing

Okay, I decided to squeeze in one more post before taking time off for Holy Paskha, this is well worth it.Some of you have asked about China’s role in all this, in what the real interests of the USA are, how the EU is positioning itself and what Russia does or does not want.  And, somehow, bogged down by the minutiae of the unfolding events I managed to never mention

Full text of the Geneva Statement of April 17, 2014 and a short commentary

The Guardian published the full text of the Geneva Statement. This is what eight hours of negotiations produced: The Geneva meeting on the situation in Ukraine agreed on initial concrete steps to de-escalate tensions and restore security for all citizens. All sides must refrain from any violence, intimidation or provocative actions. The participants strongly condemned and rejected all expressions of extremism, racism and religious intolerance, including anti-semitism. All illegal armed

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