The US did not provide Russia with any answer on Friday. By itself, this is not very surprising, the levels of infighting in the US ruling elites have made it impossible to agree on a reply on such short notice, especially during the various end of year celebrations in the West.
As for the Russians, they are fine with that, since their own deadline was mid-January. So as of right now, nothing significant has changed, what we observe is only a lot of statements by anybody and everybody, most of these statements make little or no sense and they typically all contradict each other. We should not get too caught up in the “he said this, she said that” thingie, as this is, quite literally, just hot air.
In terms of actions, again we see contradictory developments: some sources report that NATO is preparing for a major war while other report that the US Americans and UK personnel are preparing an emergency evacuation.
There appears to be a meeting between Putin and Biden in the making, according to same sources after the Orthodox Nativity, so sometime around or soon after January 8th. If so, I welcome that.
Also, Stoltenberg has said that there will be a meeting between NATO and Russia on the 12th. But then, Stoltenberg is a powerless clown whose verbal emissions mean nothing. He was the one who totally rejected any negotiations with Russia just a week ago, and now he is offering to negotiate…
I spent the last 3 days reading opinions on the Runet, listening to talk shows and watching various officials and personalities expressing their opinion and I want to share my conclusion with you: there is absolutely overwhelming evidence that the Russians are NOT bluffing, that they really mean every word they said. There is even a growing chorus of voices saying that it would be better for Russia if the West would simply reject all the Russian demands out of hand. Many clearly hope that the West will try that as this would completely untie Russia’s hands (or, if you prefer, her bear claws).
Most military officials seem to believe that a full-scale war against NATO will not happen, but that some kind of conflict with the Ukraine is now inevitable. I tend agree with them.
Many observers also seem to be really fed up. Fed up with the constant bloodletting in the LDNR, fed up with the constant presence of western military “advisors” in the Ukraine, fed up with the grandstanding and pompous declarations by EU/NATO officials whom the Russians don’t even take seriously. This entire topic has become a huge abscess in the mind of many Russians and an increasing number of them now want this abscess to be cut open, disinfected and healed. “More of the same” is just not something anybody is willing to accept.
But while I am sure that the Russians are not bluffing, I am not so sure at all whether decision-makers in the West realize that. Judging by the nonsense spewed by western officials and the AngloZionist media, I would say that no, they mostly don’t (there are a few notable exceptions like this one).
So I would say that there are definitely clouds on the horizon.
But the fact that the US and Russia seem to be preparing for some kind of summit is definitely a good sign as it shows that there is still a chance for the two sides to make some kind of deal avoiding the worst (if the US Americans only wanted to meet to issue more threats or to dismiss the Russian demands, neither side would bother with organizing a meeting).
The biggest risk now is that the US Americans will try to talk their way out and just let the clock run down without ever giving a clear answer to the Russians. Deputy Foreign Minister Riabkov said this about that “we don’t need negotiations, we need security guarantees, and very soon”. The Russians won’t take unilateral action unless and until they become convinced that the West is not willing to restrain itself and offer any legally binding and verifiable security guarantees. The other side of this coin is that should the West not be willing to restrain itself and refuse to offer any legally binding a verifiable security guarantees, then the Russians will be free take unilateral action. In other words, the Russians are saying this: look, we will get what we want, one way or another, whether we do that by means of a bilateral/multilateral negotiation or unilaterally now depends on you. For us, either way is fine, and we will achieve our objective in any scenario. The key message here is this: there is nothing you, the collective West or the USA, can do to prevent that outcome.
I conclude that the Russian ultimatum was really the very last effort by Russia to settle the problem diplomatically. If this effort fails, then the West better prepare itself for a lot of unilateral Russian actions.
As they say in Russia “those who will not listen to Lavrov will have to deal with Shoigu“. Even Lavrov himself seems to agree.
We will soon find out I suppose.
I invite you all to share your views in the open thread below.
PS: in the meantime, the LDNR authorities have identified the chemical substances US PMCs have brought to the cities of Mariupol, Krasnyi Liman and Avdeevka: botulinum toxin and dibenzoxazepine. These chemical weapons were brought over from the USA by USAF contracted aircraft and are now deployed by 120 US mercenaries.
Today, nobody West knows what to do. They hear the bells ringing, but they have no idea where those bells are. They try all their normal, trying to change the field, trying to chance narrative but it is not working. The Russians are dead.serious and are plastering the media space with their issues.
I woke in Western morning and things were kinda normal. I spent an hour or so with other stuff and then the Russian media space in English just exploded. There is no Russian with a voice that is not using that voice.
EU? I loved Lavrov .. political Kama Sutra, i.e., a whole lot of screwing in a whole lot of positions going on.
Peaceful coexistence is not going to happen. I don’t like what I am thinking but I don’t feel at this stage we’re going to squeak by without the missiles flying. But, before they fly, we live on hope.
You can see in Shoigu he is trigger happy, he wants some action.
Take your questions and grievances to those money changers who are the real puppeteers (owners) of the US Congress-critters.
“BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street own the US: The 8 largest US financial companies – JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bancorp, Bank of New York Mellon, and Morgan Stanley – are 100% controlled by ten shareholders. … the privately owned Federal Reserve is controlled by the Big Four.”
Here is a word explaining the US: Oligarchy.
And here are the words of a valiant soldier Smedley Butler explaining the US foreign policy: “War is a racket.”
BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street own the US, and they are the ones to ask about the approaching war.
If we stipulate that what you say is true, i e. that Larry Fink is the master of the universe, what even remotely sane reason would they have for promoting an armed conflict?
Please reply. I will reply to your reply. It is a very, very important question.
you still don’t understand the reason? The Satanist Kabbalah masters want social upheaval and great war. Why is the West numb or catatonic? The mushroom of this satanic tea is served by the true leaders. They run wall street and the entire Western government. It’s not conspiracy theory. Ask late financier Jeffrey Epstein, friend of Clinton, Democrats, royalty and powerful paedophiles. Have you ever read the bible? Socrates also died for the lovers of money and evil. Satan likes blood!
“If we stipulate that what you say is true, i e. that Larry Fink is the master of the universe, what even remotely sane reason would they have for promoting an armed conflict?”
I can not speak for Anna but I would attempt to answer your question – the reason is to save the system, that is the financial system which depends on US military power to enforce Dollar hegemony. It is that simple, the entire global financial dollar system depends on world trade, the bulk of exchange, & countries reserves, being conducted & held in US Dollars. Oil trade, predominantly in US Dollars, i.e. Petro Dollar system, is what keeps the US afloat & it is a vicious cycle. The Pentagon annual budget is far more than $700 billion, that is why they will not permit an audit, & use excuses like theft & corruption to excuse the so-called missing Pentagon billions. Yes there is theft & corruption, on a massive scale, but that is not the issue, the issue is that the global US military machine costs trillions per year, not billions, bank rolling Israel costs more than an annual $5 billion or so in military aid. Israeli expansion is at the heart of US imperial plans for the world, & that plan has sunk because of Russia’s intervention in Syria. So there you have it, if the US does not get its war, the system goes down, & soon. If they do get their war, they think, they may be able to salvage something or buy some time.
Dear Anna, there are many Russian shareholders in these “companies”. Russian imperial gold raised those giants. It has never been sought back by the Soviet or today’s Russian authorities. Why? Or am I wrong?
You are posting unsupported claims.
Please post documents supporting you claims.
Or stop your disinformation.
I already made my point few times here on blog on this theme and nobody was able to come up with a counter-comment to deny that fantasy and lie. Why?
If you allow me, I will leave you to think about this one….comment from RT section
“”……Russia is a net donor of the Western financial system. Last year an equivalent of $48.9 billion dollars left the country to find their place on the bank accounts under the Western jurisdictions as well as in offshore zones. This incomplete year from January to the end of November $73.9 billion already fled the country with the possibility to reach a $100 billion mark by the end of year according to Russian CB. Expelling Russia from SWIFT could be one of the greatest favors West could do to Russian economy and to the established unpatriotic order in there – make money in Russia, but keep them outside, as this would, at least temporarily, slowdown the capital flight from that country. Of course, this hole could be plugged from inside of Russia, but the head of Russian CB, Elvira Nabiullina, so praised by Putin, would never allow that. In her view nothing should impede capital outflow from Russia to the West……””
“Many Russian are shareholders in JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bancorp, Bank of New York Mellon, and Morgan Stanley.”
“The Russian imperial gold raised those giants”.
Let’s see some documentation for you claim! That would be interesting to hear how the Romanoff Gold got from Siberia to Wall Street.
“Last year $48.9 billion dollars left Russia to bank accounts in Western Nations and offshore zones.
“This year from January to the end of November $73.9 billion left Russia according to Russian CB”.
First: The sums mentioned are peanuts in regard to what is floating around on Wall Street.
Next, Private Investors are getting rid of Dollars because they expect the Dollar to collapse, and the only place they can invest Dollars are in Western Nations and Offshore jurisdictions. Nobody ells wants them. Chinese investors have almost bought up all Real estate in Vancouver Canada with their Dollar stash.
Ending SWIFT with Russia will not end Capital outflow from Russia, The Dollar outflow will just go by the Chinese CIPs system.
However, in the current siyuation with NATO, it would take Putin less than 2 minutes to convince Elvira Nabiullina to end capital flow out of Russia.
So Relax djole.
These people will be the death of us yet. Almost all of con-gress needs to be flushed down the w.c. They have allowed this to happen.
Damned fools have pushed for it to happen. Most of them don’t even know why it is that they hate Russia so much, and they are living in a delusion if they think the American people will support them when America finally begins taking casualties in its latest war of choice. Very great hardships, totally unanticipated by clueless American plebs, once the missiles start flying. Covid and inflation will suddenly become the “good old days.” Does Joe Biden think his dumbass voters are going to thank him for the opportunity to starve and live in rubble? Have they ever looked at the photos from Syria, Libya, Iraq, even Donbass, published on the internet after an American airstrike? Why should America evade the fate it has cast upon others? The bombed out brick high-rises stretching for blocks, even miles, are going to be what New York, Philadelphia, Washington and Chicago look like soon enough. Living with no utilities or fresh food will be routine. The rigors of living in the rough will alone kill many people totally un-used to deprivation. The stupidity of American leadership will exceed my wildest expectation if they allow this to happen, nay, cause it to happen. The likes of Obomber, Dubya and Trump will be hunted and shot down in their opulent mansions when our own people catch up with those bastards (pardon my French).
The operative word is Oligarchy. Putin did the right thing by throttling the Russian Oligarchs. He needs to continue doing it as well as sidelining the west leaning members to some faraway places like Siberia so that they do no more mischief. As regards the toxins and the chemical weapons, the FSB should exert all their efforts to get proof positive and then go full blast in the world press to expose the nefarious designs of Uncle SAM.
I don’t see that at all. Please give some references.
Trigger happy ? ! That is such an American characteristic somewhat lost in Europe especially Russia which has suffered real losses unknown to Americans. If anything USSR reacted too late to provocations and failed to see Germany for the threat it was despite warnings from Richard Sorge
Then again UK was same failing to come to deal with USSR in Aug 1939 even though Ribbentrop was in the same building and Molotov moving between the British and German negotiators
Trigger happy is so so American which is a Settler Culture based on seizing territory by force as in Hawaii as well as Continental US and Cuba
Around 116,009 Americans died in WW1 and 420,000 Americans died in World War 2. While not to be compared as close to equalling the losses suffered by Russia or European forces, it is still a lot of lives lost.
The US has felt the pain of war too. A visit to Arlington cemetery will show that.
That’s trivial, quickly reduced to stock phrases like “Thank you for your service” and otherwise forgotten.
It’s nothing like losing 15% of your population and having much of your civilian infrastructure and population centers destroyed.
Where did you get those numbers? They are way larger than Wikipedia shows, and while Wikipedia is NED/CIA outlet, I know of no reason why they would fake it.
Those figures are actually almost exactly what Wikipedia uses. The WWI numbers match exactly,the WWII numbers are slightly different,but not by that much:
“The US has feeled the pain of the war too”.
Really? You wouldn’t say!
Has any city in CONUS has been reduced to rubble as result of the warfighting?
Did any american woman has been raped and murdered during WW2 by the nazis?
Did any american child has been killed during WW2 by the nazis?
Have the americans lost millions of civillian lives as result of total war against US?
Unless the answer of all questions above is “yes”, the US knows nothing about the “pain of the war”.
The russians, on the other hand, know it too well. And have long memories.
Sentiram a dor da guerra? Não é isso o que os fatos mostram. O que eles mostram é que os eua fazem os OUTROS sentirem as dores das guerras intermináveis que eles provocam.
Did you feel the pain of war? This is not what the facts show. What they show is that the USA makes OTHERS feel the pain of the endless wars they provoke.
Vamos continuar insistindo nessa cantilena enfadonha sobre a Rússia ter sido pega de surpresa na segunda guerra? Stalin estava mudando o parque industrial da Rússia para os Urais só porque não tinha nada mais interessante a fazer, não é?
Are we going to keep harping on this boring chant about Russia being taken by surprise in World War II? Stalin was moving the industrial park from Russia to the Urals just because he didn’t have anything more interesting to do, did he?
And Shoigu is the guy that many are claiming will be appointed as Putin’s successor after he retires. So it is going to be tough sledding for the US in the coming years.
I think many in the west know what to do.
Limited war in ukraine to put “sanctions from hell” on Russia to weaken Russia as much as possible and ideally to get a regime change in Moskow.
Meanwhile deploying offensive weapons in eastern Europe to decapitate Russia as quickly as possible if “sanctions from hell” fail.
Then once Russia in under control the next step will be China. Iran is somewhere in between should the negociations around the jcpoa collapse completely.
I think that’s the western hardliners plan and currently the hardliners are much more powerful than those who could achieve something through negotiations.
But here is the paradox: the sanctions imposed on Russia have allowed her to rebuilt her economy. The biggest fear in Russia is not “sanctions from hell”, but a LIFTING of sanctions (hence the US move at the WTO to complain about Russia – they know that sanctions helped Russia, a lot).
There are no weapons in the West, or elsewhere, which could decapitate Russia, even if the entire Russian leadership is killed in one second (see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand).
The West tried to get Russia “under control” for 1000 years. What makes you think it can do that today??
The US could not even take on Venezuela (nevermind Iran!) and you see them taking on China?
Laurent, you need to unplug yourself from the western propaganda which is literally worthless and totally misleading.
Yes. They couldn’t get Russia “under control” when she was in her weakest and darkest times, how could they possibly do it when she is as strong as now. It seems apparent that currently Russia is stronger than ever before, thanks to modern developments in military and civilian technology. Moreover, the perspective for Russia is to get even stronger, not the converse. In contrast, the perspective for the West is a clear and stark, ongoing decline. In that sense, time is definitely not on the side of West, power is not on their side, war is not on their side, and there’s no future in their sodomic ideologies.
I like the sodomy ideogues at the end.
I think that’s the hardliners plan you know the neocons like stoltenberg blinken harris clinton bolton. Do you remember the article in the sun happily showing that US missiles in Germany could nuke moskow in 20 minutes?
These people are crazy. They greatly overestimate their strength and greatly underestimate the strength of their enemies.
Estonia is saying that they refuse any kind of negotiations with Russia and it seems that the other barking states are on the same ligne.
I don’t have many hopes that a breakthrough will be achieved through negociations. I asked you the same question a few days ago and you replied that the chances are poor.
My comment is about what I think the western hardcore hardliners are planning. Personally I am convinced that the hardliners are completely wrong and that what they are doing in crazy. But right now hardliners and true ideologues control many things in the west including all MSM and those who understand things clearly are too few to make a meaningful difference.
“But right now hardliners and true ideologues control many things in the west including all MSM…”
Western MSM is owned by a few companies that also own the US Congress and direct the MIC. The only way to protect the world from these psychopaths is to neutralize them by destroying their wealth, which is feasible today thanks to the nature of banking and to the “approachability” of gold deposits and such high-precision weaponry.
“…two investment companies, Vanguard and BlackRock hold a monopoly in all industries in the world and they, in turn, are owned by the richest families in the world, some of whom are royalty and who have been very rich since before the Industrial Revolution. Why doesn’t everybody know this? Why aren’t there movies and documentaries about this? Why isn’t it in the news? Because 90% of the international media is owned by nine media conglomerates.”
The populace has been constantly brainwashed and lobotomized by the “haves.”
Vanguard and Blackrock are not happy with Gazprom and Russia for not sharing gas profits. They want a serious share of this monopoly but Prez Putin says No.
“Why aren’t there movies and documentaries about this?”
Catch 22. Who controls the Narrative?
“Birds of a feather, flock together”: wealth supports wealth; power supports power; oligarchs support oligarchs.
And oligarchs are Internationalists; they can be found anywhere (including USA, Russia – and, of course, Israel).
NB Moneylenders DEFILE the House of God; always have and always will do.
Weren’t the Baltic countries part of the USSR as well? If Putin keeps his word, then he should take that segment into account :)).
With the attempt entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, the West is throwing the ball to the Russians to take the uninhabited north of Scandinavia. Ideal situation. Northern route control. Romania could be punished and left without Dobrugia (Little Scythia), which opens the imperial road to the Volgar brothers and Constantinople.
Let’s hope the Anglo-Americans stay consistent :)). Nothing that would bother Western Europe in future talks at the “multipolar” level after the war. Civil wars are coming to Europe and the NATO war in the Middle East.
No the Baltic Nations were occupied by the USSR for almost 50 years, and the occupation ended with the fall of the USSR.
there is such deep opposition among the population of Sweden and Finland, that these Nations will never join NATO. Stoltenberg is a lair, who is hated like a traitor, by his Norwegian countrymen, for his responsibility in the Oslo and Utoya massacre.
Russia does not need more land for Christ sake. They need more people to settle in the worlds largest landmass.
Please control your brain, its running wild.
@ A. Dane “relax”
1. Before that they existed as states or :)? I mean, if the Cossacks were at war with the Russians, and today the part they held is called Ukraine and is part of the Russian world, how is it that the Baltic Slavs are not?
2. As for the claim ….. that these Nations(Sweden and Finland) will never join NATO?
On what basis do you claim this? Any references except calling Stoltenberg a liar?
3. R does not need more land for Christ sake ….. if I may ask you to explain… how you calculate the distance of Ukrainian missiles to Russian territory, and how Baltic ones?
Thank you for your reply
@djole. I’m Relaxed, and presenting documentation to what I write.
1A. The Baltic States has been under occupations by the Germans, The Danes, The swedes, the Poles and the Russian, but the people of these nations have always maintained a feeling of own Nationality.
1B. Ukraine has never been a sovereign Nation throughout history. Kiev was settles as a trading station by Vikings. It fostered the Kievan Russ who became the lineage of the Russian Kingdom of Novgorod and Later the Russian Emperors in Moscow.
2A. Sweden and Finland will never join NATO, because both Nations have learned their lesson.
The Swedes during their conquest and fall of the Swedish Empire.
The Finns during their winter battle with the Russians during WWII.
2B. Stoltenberg is a Liar because he knows very well the national sentiment of both Sweden and Finland, as does every Dane and North men.
2C. Before the terror attacks in Norway, the youth of the Norwegian Sosialistisk Venstreparti, then in coalition of the Government led by Stoltenberg, planed a vote to recognize Palestinian statehood, and to boycott Israel. The vote on the matter was to be held at a youth conference on Utoya.
Later Stoltenberg acknowledged the failure of his Government:
3A. Nobody in the Northern Nations calculates the distance of missiles into Russian territory, because all Nordic Nations have decided to never have Nuclear weapons on their soil in time of Peace.
3B. I doubt that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine like to be first price to any Russian Missile attacks.
When you post, please don’t mix oranges with apples. That is why I have sectioned you questions.
“2B. Stoltenberg is a Liar because he knows very well the national sentiment of both Sweden and Finland, as does every Dane and North men.
2C. Before the terror attacks in Norway, the youth of the Norwegian Sosialistisk Venstreparti, then in coalition of the Government led by Stoltenberg, planed a vote to recognize Palestinian statehood, and to boycott Israel. The vote on the matter was to be held at a youth conference on Utoya.”
many of us agree, sadly there is quite a few Ola Dunk`s that believe the official Utøya narrative, my neighbor even wants stoltenberg back in to lead Arbeiderpartiet (AP)😢
Thanks for your reply; it means a lot to me.
In these times the Nordic populations have got to stick together, and clean our Nations of Elite Agents.
The truth can’t be kept under lock forever, and on day even you neighbor will realize the betrayal.
Today former Norwegian NATO Ambassador Kai Aide schooled Stoltenberg for his warmongering against Russia.
With a wish for a happier New Year and hope for peace, here is the Nordic band Europe live in Sct. Petersburg Russia, with the song: My girl from Lebanon.
The Video features an insane Guitar solo by the Norwegian Guitarist John Norum
Times are changing, so keep you faith my Nordic Brother.
Exactly that, Andrei! Russia is ethernal thorn in west,s eye! And all that talk about democracy, ,,human rights ,, and et cetera ,are just that: empty talk and nothing more than that! There is no country in the world who trash a human rights as ,,west,, do!
Once the first shot is fired, all military plans go out the window. This is a dangerous, dangerous game of Russian roulette with five chambers loaded. Russia has her back to the wall, so perhaps there is no other choice.
They say truth is the first casualty of war. But war itself is a failure of reason and commonsense. And we in our individual echo chambers comfort ourselves with what we want to hear.
Who except God can say where all this will end?
Saker, I know you are extremely pressed for time. You mis-read Laurent’s comment. He described what the Empire’s elite may be planning, not what he himself wants. it would have been better if Laurent had gone a bit deeper into reading the tea leaves. and consider whether in fact these extremely hard-line action plans are real, or if this is chest-thumping prior to any real negotiation.
My opinion is that to the extent that the neocons are calling the shots, the most insanely arrogant plans are possible. It’s approximately “little hats” versus “white hats”. If there are “white hats” with any power, it would be in the Pentagon, perhaps the NSA. So “white” is only relatively less black.
Believe it or not, this is NOT a joke: the EU kleptos are asking Russia…..290 billions, attention….for ‘compensation’ for the money lost due to counter sanctions from Russia.
How do these idiots dare?They were the one imposing sanctions after the US MH17 false flag, at least the finally recon that they lost 290 billions. There one Russian MP(don’t remember his name) who answered by saying: ok then Russia will ask the EU one trillion euros also for ‘compensation’.
/TASS/. The EU’s complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Moscow’s import substitution policy is a shameful and dishonest step, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with Vladimir Soloviev for the Soloviev Live YouTube channel on Monday.
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry explained on December 26 that the EU’s demands boil down to repealing or modifying certain measures by Russia that the EU regards as a violation of the WTO’s rules. Russia’s procurement market, not the damage caused to the EU, is estimated by the European Union at €290 bln. Moscow has provided detailed explanations on the fact that those measures fully meet Russia’s WTO obligations to the EU.
Sanctions over Abyssinia drive Mussolini to ally with Hitler and created major disaster for Britain in Med and N Africa
Sanctions on Russia are meaningless with a new global economic power like China underpinning Western economies. German companies are bought by China for technology or simply have production in Turkey.
US does not control as it did with IBM and Cargill and GE and DEC. It is a different world and London was built on Soviet Dollar Funds – Eurodollar Market originated with Moscow Narodny Bank
Sanctions simply destroy Western economies by ceding markets to China and reducing long term growth
The “West” has indeed tried to control Russia for a long time. However, this has become an ever more pressing objective since the end of the nineteenth century. The analysis published by Halford MacKinder in 1904 (“The Geographical Pivot of History”) still serves as a guideline for the US regime, after first serving as a guiding principle for the English government until the 1940s. Zbigniew Brzezinski not too long ago reformulated MacKinder’s analysis in tune with a changed technological environment.
MacKinder argues that in order to survive as a seafaring island nation, England should try to prevent the Eurasian landmass becoming controlled by a single powerful state (or alliance), Hence the English provoked World War I, because Germany and Russia were close to forming a close-knit economic partnership set to dominate Eurasia. World War II saw the continuation of this policy.
Now that Russia and China are becoming ever closer allies, now that there is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (including Iran!!), now that there is the Belt Road Initiative, now that the US and its vassals have been chased out of Afghanistan, the spectre haunting MacKinder and his English supremacists has seemingly materialised.
The Anglosphere would now seem to be compelled to try and break up that alliance. Seen against this background, the policies of the US regime seem understandable. I am afraid, however, that the US regime has not yet realised it will lose in the end.
Those, who don’t learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.
If I’m not mistaken, those words are attributed to Santayana.
It seems that americans have forgotten that after the October revolution 1917 the combined west imposed total sanctions on the fledgling Soviet Union. After their victory in the civil war, despite those sanctions and despite their faults, bolsheviks managed to turn a backward agriculture country into industrial powerhouse, which rivaled Germany, France and UK. But, of course, the americans never learned from history. Otherwise they wouldn’t have remained with the wrong impression that they’ve won the previous cold war.
I think that the time is past that Russia takes economic sanctions sitting down. I expect that Russia will from now on treat sanctions as acts of war and respond accordingly. Russia’s entire demeanor has changed. The rattlesnake is rattling its tail. Somebody dumbass who keeps poking a stick at it is about to get bit.
see my longer post as to WHY.
the western elites ….those actually in the know and in charge are forcing russia to GIVE THEM the war they NEED to maintain control over increasingly angry and restive domestic western populations.
russia is mart enough to understand the dynamic below the surface yet still must address whats happening on the ground nearby. imo this is why russia has been so reticent for so long to take military action. mr putin surely knows the real game the western elites are playing and WHY in the face of russian forces VASTLY more powerful than anything the west can throw at them yet still poke the bear so he knows how desperate they are now to remain in power.
the only western goal imo unknown is whether the western elites can keep this drama small enough to achieve THEIR objective without overturning the entire european chessboard thereby ushering in a new crop of elites, something those in current positions want to avoid.
Yes, that’s a nice comment, tedrichard. The evil Western system is not compatible, and cannot compete, with Russia and China.
In order to at least hold on to power in the West, the AngloZionists have to terrorize and tyrannize the citizens of the West, and isolate the West from the rest of the world.
So they want totalitarianism (in the West) and a new “Iron Curtain.”
In order to isolate the West and to blame it on Russia (and China), the AngloZionists need a lousy pretext (e.g. a small provoked war, or a false flag operation). No doubt Russia is anticipating that, but there’s only so much Russia (and China) can do or tolerate (hence the Russians spelling it out beforehand).
Instructions for use
Theory and practice of oligarchic collectivism, of which 1984 is the novelization.
Do you have a link to what he said today? When I click on his website I get a 404 message. I’m in NY, USA
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov ridiculed the EU’s policy toward Russia as “political Kama Sutra” in an interview aired on Monday.
He referred to the strategy of building relations with Russia that was announced by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in June. The EU official said the bloc should “push back, constrain, and engage with” Moscow.
“I imagined the choreography of this,” he said in an interview with the Soloviev Live YouTube channel. “This is, pardon me, political Kama Sutra.”
The EU’s policy towards Russia is not helping to bolster relations and is merely a manifestation of “political Kama sutra”, Moscow’s top diplomat has claimed as tensions flare on the continent
Tip: “Lavrov + political karma sutra” ….does the trick on search engine of your choice
Siempre he tenido la certeza de que los rusos van de frente y no fanfarronean. Leí una vez un artículo que escribió un periodista ruso que me convenció sobre la forma de actuar de un ruso y que escribió lo siguiente: “Hay algo que un ruso siempre aprende en esta vida de forma obligada; lo aprende en su casa o lo aprende en la escuela o lo aprende en el servicio militar y es lo siguiente: NUNCA AMENACES Y SOLO ACTÚA”
Si a esto le sumamos lo que dijo hace unos días el presidente ruso que si un conflicto es inevitable entonces es mejor pegar primero, entonces se me pone la piel de gallina por lo que puede pasar.
Google translate from Mod:-
I have always had the certainty that the Russians go straight and not fanfare. I read once an article that a Russian journalist wrote that convinced me about the way of acting a Russian and who wrote the following: “There is something that a Russian always learns in this life forced; He learns it in his house or learns At school or learn it in military service and is the following: never threaten and only acts ”
If we add what the Russian president said a few days ago that if a conflict is inevitable then it is better to hit first, then I get chicken skin so it can happen.
“we see contradictory developments: some sources report that NATO is preparing for a major war while other report that the US Americans and UK personnel are preparing an emergency evacuation.”
I see no contradiction ! In case of war, they will have to evacuate very quickly !
“other (sources) report that the US Americans and UK personnel are preparing an emergency evacuation.”
Please give sources.
Been meaning to relate this: the media in Slovakia have been for over a year reporting on military movements across the country. If you guessed west to east, you’d be right. Tons of military gear have moved east – to and across the Ukrainian border. Also, amerikanci are forcing Slovakia to sign a military agreement that would basically allow them to do anything inside the borders, including taking over private property. The leaders there are fully in the pocket of the big uncle. Certainly, Russians have noticed.
… áno máte absolútne pravdu, bohužiaľ je to nanešťastie tak – ako Slovák Vaše slová plne potvrdzujem.
… yes, you are absolutely right, unfortunately it is unfortunately so – as Slovak I fully confirm your words.
Russian Defence Ministry: NATO Preparing for Large-scale High-intensity Conflict With Moscow.
I wonder on what evidence they are saying that and what changed in comparison to a few years ago. I don’t think nato started preparing for war with Russia just in the last months of 2021.
A shift occurred in Russia and China in the last two years. Their diplomats shifted from cautious diplomatic speak to using blunt language. Putin several months ago shifted to very direct language. If the US ignores this and blindly keeps trying to press forward against Russia in Europe then Russia must and will act and will hit the US in its blind spots one after another.
Russia and China have been slowly and methodically removing all of the revolvers held to their heads which made armed conflict suicidal. The east and the west have been like two Siamese twins for a long time, one growing stronger and one slowly dying. The sick one can’t be allowed to completely die without killing its healthy sibling, which I think is why Russia has avoided direct conflict. I suspect the twins have been recently separated.
Very very interesting thought. Thank you.
I would concur that there is a lot of infighting right now with the US ‘elites’ trying to figure out a way forward. The US dollar is at its’ ‘end of life’ as a reserve currency, US soft power has been emasculated world wide with BLM and woke ideology that most of the silent majority can’t buy into, US weapons systems are losing ground to Chinese and Russian innovation, and the US is losing it’s scientific edge. There are two ways out of this trap, drop the empire and reinvigorate US ‘culture’, or start a war.
To perform the first one will destroy credibility in the elite US circles as they’ve promoted the current state of affairs and the culture has been shifted too far from human norms to be fully recoverable. Additionally, the destruction of the US reserve dollar status will lead to financial destabilization and hungry, angry people are a substantial destabilizing and unpredictable force.
The second way out carries its’ own risks as the US has to defeat both China and Russia to win – with out of date technology and poorly trained and motivated troops. I’m going to bet that this is the route that will eventually be chosen by the US.
I was actually thinking that when I wrote the comment. I am in no way religious, but many of the signs from Revelations appear to be falling into place.
Cheers!! I’m not religious either.
You don’t have to be ‘religious’ to believe. Believing is a personal deal.
We ‘may be’ at the the breaking of the 2nd seal in Revelations 6 (but this is just my uneducated and personal wonderings??)
And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals, and I heard, as it were the noise of thunder, one of the four beasts saying, Come and see. And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him had a bow; and a crown was given unto him: and he went forth conquering, and to conquer.
And when he had opened the second seal, I heard the second beast say, Come and see. And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.
IF we are at this juncture, the following signs to come after war are famine and death on a wide scale.
Personally, I wouldn’t be jumping to any conclusions at this point but it is always a great time to make your personal peace with God. You can do that anywhere at any time, it’s just gotta be real.
Apart from all of this conjecture of war and whether we’re at the end of the book, I cannot ignore the very strange times we are currently living in.
To me, it has been very evident for the past 2 years or so, that something spiritual has been unleashed upon the earth and the by product of that spiritual pouring is that the basic tenet of truth that humanity has used for our existence, as a foundation of guidance, the compass for personal and social morality and Governmental constraint, has been somewhat removed or, no longer valued or deemed necessary by many people.
Truth has become a terrible proposition for some who, seem to prefer to choose to reject truth and choose instead, to live in their own world of fantasy.
The Neocons are a perfect example of what I’m trying to describe as well as the proclaimers of the woke diktats of creating a so called a future for humanity of a ‘new reality’ where Gods truth has been rejected and trod upon.
But this phenomena I’m attempting to describe isn’t just about woke diktats. It’s root is in the removal of and, the rejection of God and his truth and has strengthened to become more pervasive into all of our lives so as to now, reach down to the street level of society over the last 2 years or so.
Some people don’t even notice and are just going through the motions of their lives and seem something like, a car radio blaring without an antenna attached but, there are many others who are definitely noticing the change in their personal lives and, who attempt to describe what they’re experiencing in their own way.
Some have shared with me a feeling of being surrounded by ‘a madness’ with the advent of the obvious doubts of personal sanity that this awareness suggests. They prevail though, with truth as their guide but then emerge with a feeling of being separated somewhat from those who, are unaware of this phenomenon and blare away antenna-less.
A division has and is taking place.
Writing about the spiritual is a difficult task. Even verbal expression is difficult but, I write this in the hope that others in the world are also experiencing this phenomena?
If indeed, we are now living through the period described in the book of Revelations, you can be confident that it will play out just as it is written.
However the confidence that some put in their understanding of this book does seem perilous to me. I prefer to accept a personal ignorance as the 1st rule and a hope of being enlightened the 2nd.
If the 2nd seal is broken, peace is taken from the world and Russia may feel combinant in using her military to secure her place in the world. You could then be confident of her ultimate success in that endeavour because, according to Revelation (my humble understanding withstanding) Russia exists right up until the return of Jesus’ 2nd coming.
Of course, some of what I’ve written is just conjecture but I’m confident that some here will understand ‘the times’ we’re living through and may even gain some personal hope by reading this and knowing that they are not alone in feeling what they may be feeling during these strange times.
Forgive my lengthy detour of subject but I do think it may be relevant to some.
São Tempos Apocalípticos!
Os EUA estão por trás do Golpe no Brasil e na Ucrânia!
Aqui no Brasil muitos pensam como você!
Os EUA são o Império do Mal!
Glória Eterna à Eterna Rússia!
Paz de Cristo!
These are Apocalyptic Times!
The US is behind the coup in Brazil and Ukraine!
Here in Brazil many think like you!
The US is the Evil Empire!
Eternal Glory to Eternal Russia!
No you are not far off the mark, we are in a very very very dangerous moment which many cannot see because they refuse to realise they are being deceived, they refuse to do any independent research or use their critical thinking skills which God has given to everyone. Dr Reiner Fulermilch, who is leading a panel of legal and medical experts to use the courts to prevent the continuation of the use of experimental gene therapy “ vaccines “, made a statement that there is a spiritual dimension to what is taking place at the moment !
I totally agree that we’re somewhere in the beginning of the Book of Revelation. And when you tie Revelation 6 with Ephesians 6:12 (“For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms.”) you have both the reason for the current debauchery of everything sacred, and the consequences of that action.
In my opinion, virtually all western leaders are owned by the Enemy of mankind, and do his bidding accordingly. I hope people understand the lateness of the hour, and the need and urgency to repent their sin and seek salvation through Jesus Christ (John 14:6 “I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me.”) Our bodies are temporary, ephemeral, but the real “we” is the soul and spirit that tie us to the Everlasting Father, and it is to Him that we should commit ourselves through Christ.
The coming war will be brutal, and the results will usher in a time of great darkness, but the Light of Truth comes afterward.
In my view you analysis down below are spot on.
The Western Elite needs war ( in fact only a skirmish) with Russia and the COVID plandemic as an excuse for the Western Nations (The US and EU) to default on its debt, while at the same time keeping the Elite in control over the western monetary system.
What the Elite fears the most is uprising, revolutions, and them-selves being hanged from lampposts or send to the Guillotines.
what about Russia?
Russia only needs to shoot at NATO forces once, And then watch as the western population starts hunting down the Global Elite throughout the west, while hyperinflation sets in, Banks closes, and unemployment explodes.
Total Economic RESET in the West.
And who is to blame for the economic RESET of the west?
NO: The Globalist Fascist Elite controlling the Western monetary system
My reply was regarding the long post down below from @tedrichard.
However, @JackJC is on to the same reason as to why Russia is being provoked by the western Elite.
If the US and EU defaults on its debt it means that they have lost control over the western monetary system. Such a default would result in a massive rebellion amongst the middle classes, (not to mention their working classes) of both continents to bring down the whole system.
Nope, there will be no defaults. The currencies will collapse through inflation, not default.
Yes, hyper inflation will bring down the west, however:
National Economy 101:
Low National debt + Trade surplus + Low inflation = Growth
High National debt + Trade Deficit + High inflation = Decline.
There would be no need to create inflation unless there is a large Debt to be paid with no Trade surplus.
The US and EU do not control the western monetary system.
The Globalist Fascist Elite are the owners of the Western central Banking system. And they control the western monetary system.
This fact is essential when the blame for “The Great Reset” of the west has to be placed.
It is not Russia and China who has moved western production to China.
It is not Russia and China who has created the western National debts.
It is not Russia and China who has conducted wars globally since WWII.
It is not Russia and China who has expanded its Empires to Tax and plunder an expanding population.
It is the policies dictated by the Globalist Fascist Elite, via its Agents inside Western Governments.
And it is the Globalist Fascist Elite Agents who now provokes war with Russia and China, in order to shield the Globalist Fascist Elite from repercussions of their plunder of the west.
And don’t forget:
Who voted these cunning Globalist fascist Elite Agents into office?
I recentelly watch “”dont look up” on Netflix. It seems that a significative portion of the américain public and in the movie industry realize perfectly well the desperate situation of their country due to the totaly incompetent politacal staff.
I love that movie. it is the only movie worth watching on idiot box. So many parallels to the situation in hand today.
I watched it. It was brilliant!
there is an aspect to what is transpiring in the march to war that has NOTHING to do with russia at all.
russia is being used as the justification for what the europeans elites and politicians believe NEEDS to be done soon.
1. the ecb has run out of road. the banking system in europe is cutoff from outside funding because no one trusts their ability repay or bailed if the bank goes under.
2. this means the ecb countries can no longer fund themselves via the bond market and must use raw money printing which means massive inflation and coming economic collapse
3. the wef has offered the solution called the great reset BBB which is a default on all government debt wiping out all european pensions along with a whole lot of more awful outcomes
4. the european elites are terrified a collapse bring revolution across europe and they are historically speaking correct
5. covid just happening in early 2020 is for them a godsend allowing lockdowns, population passes for movement and other authoritarian behavior with minimal popular outcry
6. covid as THE bogeyman is now visibly failing everywhere while unrest is rising fast
7. euro elites now need more justifications for people control for what is coming they can not control and no longer stop…….the european economic implosion starting this new year
8. this is where russia come into play, by continually inserting hostile forces closer and closer to russia eventually…now….the russian people have had enough. any conflict will be used to continue what the covid bogeyman no longer is able to achieve……..control people to prevent revolutions, blame the collaspe on the war (russia) to deflect from the TRUE agents……euro elites.
9 sell this to the people to allow the agents of misery the euro elites to keep their power and control while their populations get shafted while point their finger east
10 the usa benefits by having a tsunami of capital flow west bolstering the rickety american economy postponing our day of reckoning for a few year more………and scaring the american populace into accepting massive mic money flows to keep the grift going, while inflation rages
suffice it to say……this war is actually “””””needed”””””…….by the euro elites and the american elites to keep their control of things which in danger of slipping away. russia will get what it wants because the west is to weak to do anything about it anyway. the real kabuki here is the war itself. a pageant to hide whats really going on under the surface for purposes nothing to do with moscow or ukraine.
there is more but this is a good primer
The “competition” of the currencies USD and Euro as to which one will go under first will be won by the Dollar. I have no doubt about it but will not go into much detail here, suffice it to say that the US has much worse fundamental figures while more and more states feel compelled to move away from trade in USD thereby reducing the USA’s ability to refinance its deficits. Western international businesses and investors are watching the development closely and are bye and bye establishing preferences. One of the two has to survive and as I said before it will be the Euro. So far I have never read that China and Russia move away from Euro denominated trade.
Indeed. Better to work with color-coded banknotes (the colors make it easier to tell each denomination apart) than to fiddle with monochromatic toilet paper with “In God we Trust” and that creepy-ass Eye of Horus printed on it. Also, coins (€1 and €2) that actually have value instead of being mere “pocket change”.
War may be needed but it’s a terminal, and quickly terminal, strategy. So in the immediate term of any major conflict with Russia and China, global oil supplies are disrupted, as is all China trade. The US economy grinds to an immediate halt in totality–there won’t be energy or raw materials to make warfare components even. The US grid is ridiculously vulnerable and would be taken out in the earliest moments of such a conflict–even if it isn’t nuclear. Then the US is dead within weeks. Period. It will also become totally uncontrollable internally as when the lights go off, there is no way to continue to pump disinfo into the population. The population is heavily armed, completely hates each other, and will be in the dark and starving. The US turns into Mad Max inside of 60 days.
Where do the elites scurry off to? Russia and China know where are the rat holes are in New Zealand, Patagonia, etc. They’ll just get hunted and picked off one by one. If they opt to go nuclear, they still meet the same fate. Try biological weapons? Same fate. The situation is worse in Europe, as the elite will get hit in the opening moments of a conflict, and if they really want to press it, the Russians will make it to London in a week. Game over.
So what does war accomplish here? If this was going to be some drawn out WWII type endeavor where the US mainland wouldn’t get attacked and the US had the industrial base and united society to endure and build back afterwards, sure, war makes total sense. In an all out conflict between major powers, the US infrastructure will be gone in the opening minutes (ditto Europe, and ditto Japan/Australia trying to attack China). And keeping it contained to Ukraine, again, nothing is gained. The battle is over in a couple days, Ukraine is broken up and demolished. The US pulls the SWIFT card. Russia and China cease all dollar trade and pull the plug on exports. The US economy implodes from lack of material and energy. I suppose this is a longer time they can circle the drain in that scenario, and allow a collapse that takes say 6 months, and that gives them enough time to loot everything else worth taking and bolt for the rat holes. But this necessarily means the US and Europe descend into chaos and become ungovernable, and thus not worth parasitizing anymore. So where does that leave the elite with their trillions in stolen money and assets? Banned from the new world ruled from Eurasia. And again, at that point, without the power of the state left to protect them, they’ll get picked off one by one. So sure, a limited war with Ukraine gives them a few years of life left, always looking over their shoulder until their megayacht meets a hypersonic missile.
Now, it wouldn’t surprise me that these utterly unimaginative souls would double down on a clearly insane and losing strategy. But it doesn’t make any tactical/strategic sense. The only thing that saves them now is negotiating a peace, being allowed to keep some of their ill gotten gains, and maybe turning Australia back into a large open air prison where they’re all sent to live out their days and quarantined from causing any more trouble in the world. Anyway you cut it the checkmate is inevitable now. The only question is whether it is going to happen in 2 moves or 5 moves or whether the game is conceded in a civil manner and the loser admits defeat.
You may be right. The West will be finished, as well as their elite. So how did they benefit from their billions. Even Israel is vulnerable if the backers (US, UK, France, etc) evaporate.
I agree with a lot of the above. BUT as long as they control the systems of world capital, they can do whatever they want with money. That is changing and that is why some in the “east” mentioned 2024, when they’ve preplaned to gain absolute sovereignty. I think that those plans also failed and that they are more serious in the east. West has no more time and throws the ball to them to take action, to save what can be saved. The “democratic” part of “UN.” . In five years time, he wouldn’t been able to do that either. Three fronts(eastern Europe, Pacific, Midle East) at once if opened, it’s over. I hope west stays strong and doesn’t agree with the Russians :)). It is time to finish colonial era.
The world reserve currency status of the Dollar is ending.
The US military hegemony has ended.
The US federal Government is Bankrupt.
The UN and the WHO is morally bankrupt. They sold their integrity to the Bill Gates and Soros Foundations.
The Colonial era is not ending, The EU (France) is shifting to re-colonize Africa.
Beyond Libya, Search for French troops – Nigeria – Uranium – Oil deposits.
Re: your point (2) that “this means the ecb countries can no longer fund themselves via the bond market”
Says who? Just looking at Eurozone bond yields as of right now, they are still ridiculously low, with real rates (= nominal minus inflation) in negative territory. Nominal yields on the 10-yr govt bond for Italy and Greece were barely above 1% when I checked a few minutes ago. That’s Greece, mind you.
Of course, most of the debt issued (net new or rollovers) is purchased domestically within the EU itself, but this is no different than in Japan, China, or India (local currency debt issuance/purchasers).
By way of comparison, if you look at large developing countries, bond yields (local currency) are significantly higher: Indonesia 10-year at ~6.5% nominal; India also at ~6.5% nominal.
eu bond yields are low because the ecb buys up all the paper to suppress yields and they do NOT let that which they hold expire they continue to buy more since there are NO other buyers.
clearly you do not understand how negative yields have destroyed the desire of private capital to buy and hold government paper.
Don’t look up! – this movie explains in what reality west lives these days.
The tea leaves are still swirling and have yet to settle, so they’re hard to read. The lack of gas orders to Gazprom that would flow through the Yamal pipe is very odd given the EU’s energy crisis. The reality of Russian military superiority ought to lead NATO commanders to move back to preserve their forces instead of forward to have them destroyed. Otherwise, it appears we get to wait.
In addition, we have Finnian Cunningham’s thoughts that amount to the time-tested formula: Past Behavior is the best predictor of Future Behavior. Thus,
“In reality, this is not a ‘potential problem’ for Washington. It is a deliberate calculation. The Pentagon has weaponized the Russophobic Kiev regime it put in power in order to destabilize Russia. That has been the strategic objective going back decades under imperial planners like the late Zbigniew Brzezinski. And now the ‘great game’ has reached the point where Washington is providing its catspaw regime with the intelligence to target Russian forces within their own borders, that is to target Russia itself.
“This baleful background leads one to deduce that talks with the U.S. and its NATO partners are indeed nothing but a nefarious cover for a long-term trajectory of aggression against Russia.
“Given the relentless, endemic betrayals by the U.S. and NATO, one suspects that the Russian leadership knows full well that the proposed talks mark a dangerous watershed. If there are no prompt responses to Russia’s legitimate security concerns, then the next phase entails a more robust military-technical realm. A realm, it seems, that Moscow has already gamed out knowing that it is almost inevitable.”
Lets assume Cunningham’s correct and discuss what “MiIitary-Technical” action would need to be taken to secure Russia’s security/red lines. Given what geography dictates, maps show close to 70% of the current Ukraine would need to be absorbed into Russia, all but the eight westernmost political districts west of Zhytomyr and Vynnytsya and Transnistra. Moldova should be allowed to remain neutral or rejoin Russia. The remaining rump nazi-dominated districts present a moral dilemma: Should they be cleansed, its populace forced to move westward into NATOland and repopulated by a modern version of Cossacks or allowed to sink or swim on their own. Ukraine would then cease to exist as it would now become 100% Russia. Yes, the West would howl, but as Putin and others have already said–the West’s unwillingness to negotiate in good faith caused the resulting actions: You were warned. As for the Baltics, I’d let them stew and inform NATO that any missile emplacements there will suffer immediate destruction. Then we have Transcaucasia and Georgia, where I would also let nature take its course as its proximity to Russia and BRI projects will allow it to forget about the EU and NATO membership as its prospects improve.
Could the Outlaw US Empire do anything to forestall such actions? No. Could it make things worse for itself if it tries? Yes. Would those controlling the Outlaw US Empire risk nuclear war to preserve their purchase in Ukraine? No. They got as far as they did because until now Russia didn’t feel capable of standing up and pushing back. Yes, they’ll howl and sanction like mad, even to the point of destroying SWIFT which would generate massive, potentially devastating blowback on the Empire and its vassals’s economies.
Part of me hopes those in charge of the Outlaw US Empire show their moral ugliness and pull the anticipated delaying tactics as that IMO would accelerate the fall of the Neoliberal edifice ruining the USA and allow popular forces to finally gain control. But regardless, we still must wait.
I value you commenting here. Not everyone flicks over to Moonofalabama (they should) to catch your insights there.
Agree ten thousand percent -and more- the Russians will have been game planning this for some time… maybe years.
They know their U$A “partners”, while the U$A has absolutely no clue about Russia…. It’s ideas stuck in a Cold War time warp.
So the Russians know the next move their “partner” will make…. And the next and the next and
The U$A has no clue…and done even know what their next move will be..
Ruthenia, the furthest west part of the Ukraine, would not like to be left with the nazis.
I would exclude the westernmost province of “Ukraine” (amazingly to some) that never wanted to be in the Ukraine and has historically been Russophile: the area known as the Transcarpathian Oblast (region), stolen by Stalin from Czechoslovakia in 1945. After a thousand years, first under the Hungarian Kingdom, then the Austro-Hungarian Empire, then a brief period of freedom (1919-1939), then Hungarian Nazi-allied rule 1939-1945, then Communism 1945-1991, then under rabid Ukrainian nationalism 1991-present, the people always remained faithful to the unified Russian race “from the Poprad River (Slovakia) to the Pacific” and have always rejected the separatist movement (not nationality) of ukrainism (‘borderland-ism’). They should never be lumped in with the other areas to the north in Galicia.
Excellent recap of the situation. Indeed, we must wait.
I pray VVP finally decides to liberate the Ukraine from the Nazis, just today on a Ukrop Telegram channel they posted a video of their Special Operations Forces carrying out another assassination of a Russian lieutenant of the 100th Motorized Rifle Brigade in LDNR.
I’m not sure why they even bother to meet with Biden or even Nato, they pulled out of the Iran Deal and have broken every treaty going all the way back to the Indigenous tribes in North America, these folks are incorrigible and it’s clear as day.
After having watched Russian talk shows and news, the following:
1. Russia has a life, besides the issue with the West. It truly believes in the future, her own, decided by herself and her people.
2. Last train for deplomacy is about to leave. After that the train station will be turned into a barracks.
3. Russia can play good cop bad cop too. The volley of Zirkons successfully hitting their target and advertised by Putin himself is an example of the latter.
4. Kadirov’s words were met with approval. The hail of the slav people of Ukraine will be better served by reuniting Ukraine to Mother Russia.
5. Guests at talk shows on Russian TV already talk about Ukrainian leaders ending up strung up from a pole.
6. The issue regarding chemical weapons in the Ukraine, courtesy of the West has proven a liability. The Russians have all the details. UK is scared beyond their wits that British freedom fighters may face trial for crimes against humanity for using chemical weapons.
7. In short: in Russia there’s only one voice. Russia is in full control of the narrative and the means of escalation.
After having witnessed what is going on in the West (I happen to live in Spain), the following :
1. The West is in intensive care. I hope the issue between Spain and Morocco doesn’t escalate so that our gas delivery from Algier is not cut off.
2. The eu is a joke and Germany is farce. If I was malicious, I’d say elections in Germany were arranged. The new government is going to cost the Germans dear. But then again, I’m not a German.
3. Talks in January between us and Russia? Russia speaks with one voice, but the US? Even if an agreement is reached, does anyone expect Biden to prevail? I don’t.
4. Inflation is starting to bite.
5. Sanctions mentioned again. This time by kemala. In the good old days, the US threatened with military action. Now it’s sanctions.
6. For the first time us is quite about military action. Could it be they are up to something?
Emergency war powers allow the US to make whatever rules print whatever money do whatever his master the US oligarchs want. A limited war will still allow the US president to impose emergency war powers over the US population and assets.US oligarchs favor limited war that allows Biden through a presidential decree to control US financial assets and US civil rights. A limited war allows suspension of all rules in the US in favor of the oligarchs.
If Biden grants all Putin requests without some war he can not invoke all his presidential powers. Therefore without some bloodshed, the US public will not consent to loss of their property and individual personal rights.
The attack on Pearl Harbor was triggered to expand the US presidential war powers double the national debt and boost production for oligarchs.
…except this time (unlike after Pearl Harbor/WW II) the U.S. currency would collapse from its global reserve capacity and destroy the U.S.’ economy, rather than allow a build up of an industrial base they only have for the military and supply chain networks for the military and domestic consumption that would be broken. U.S. oligarchs would be holding trillions of useless US$
I more or less agree. Russia or China are not very interested in America. They are interested in the EU as a peninsula of Asia. Like the end of the Silk Road. And when the Americans can no longer control it, they will make war. For now, they have their puppets in Germany, they remain the same in France therefore, there is no need yet. For noty Europe, Masonic circles are preparing a war with the Muslims, that is why so many “immigrants” are being brought in, who will one day cause a storm like the Jews once did. When racism and xenophobia of “German” Europe will be openly revealed. First communists, then terrorists, now fundamentalist Islam, which AIPEC and Protestant societies are pushing for their known interests
It depends on whether the US military has any McGregor types willing to tell the truth to team Biden. For all its huge budgets , the US military has fallen short of the Russians in key military technologies. The PC requirements and LGBT has made the US officers into corrupt liars, The combat efficiency is only 50% to 60% of WW2 levels. Of course Team Biden must convince the NWO Oligarchs that this is so or they will be replaced. Accepting the Russians offer to engage in sane discussions means the NWO attempt to dominate the world is over. Do any of the oligarchs have military experience or non sycophant advisors? Can Team Biden summon up the moral courage to tell the oligarchs that Nato is not up to the part?
“Can Team Biden summon up the moral courage to tell the oligarchs that Nato is not up to the part?”
No. In fact, hell no. Biden can’t even control his own administration. And that’s assuming he’s not on board with a war between Russia and Ukraine – for which I have not seen one shred of evidence. These so-called “talks” don’t count in the slightest. Biden has held repeated talks with China over this past year – and within 24 hours, his administration undermined them. At some point you have to conclude the man isn’t serious whatever he says.
There are two questions: Did Russia give US and NATO an ultimatum now because they feel they are for the first time strong enough militarily and economically or did they do so because they have found out that US and NATO are about to do something crazy.
Secondly: Is Russia bluffing ie. are they only going to engage in half measures. I think it would be suicidal for them to be bluffing.
I have no doubt: the Kremlin is NOT running a bluff, and any competent military intelligence officer can evaluate that Russia does not need to bluff.
If they do you use those chemical weapons.When Russia responds,don’t take prisoners,well maybe a handful if you need them for information,but none of the rest. Remember when the Germans tortured and murdered Zoya Kosmodemyanskaya ,Stalin ordered no prisoners to be taken from the German regiment that committed the crime,all of them captured were to be shot on the spot. There is nothing worse than the use of those types of weapons and an object lesson would need to be taught.
The realist American military man that Saker referenced Ret. Colonel Douglas Macgregor is the only one I’ve seen publicly telling the truth.He goes on Fox every once in a while,but I haven’t seen him on other MSN. His article , https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/washington-prepares-to-fail-in-ukraine/,brought out an excellent comment from another truth telling article that is great.
In 1991 the Red Army, as it then was, essentially disappeared. It didn’t just change into the Russian Army; it dissolved. Divisional headquarters became supply depots just to employ officers who would otherwise have to be paid pensions; from top to bottom, entire armies vanished. The Russian army top brass, however, still fought the First Chechen War as though its forces were still the blitzkrieg trained troops of the 1980s, and this is why they got their heads handed to them on a platter in the flaming ruins of Grozny. Between 1996-9 the Russians learnt their lesson and fundamentally changed the way their Army was constructed. The divisions that still existed were shifted south. The army itself was regrouped into independent brigades, which are small, agile, and perfect for a limited war against insurgencies but are fundamentally incapable of a conventional offensive. This is why they won the Second Chechen War handily; not because of “brutality” but because of the new way they fought.
It is however inescapable fact that this also meant that Russia not just would not but could not, even if it wanted, “threaten” the so called “terrified of Russian invasion” neoNATO pipsqueaks that were gobbled up by the Amerikastani Empire between 1995-2004. There was absolutely no threat to them; it did not exist. The Amerikastani Empire knew it too because the Russians, by treaty, let them inspect Russian military formations (check above link for details).
All this is also proved by the fairly shambolic Russian performance against Georgia in 2008. Yes, Russia made the corrupt colour revolution
imposed CIA stooge Saakashvili eat its tie on television in three days, and forced Georgia to its knees in five, but its army was fighting a war it was not structured for; and this was clear not just to western analysts but to the Russians themselves. It was only after 2008 that the Russian army began a fundamental restructuring that involved:
1. Changing to a professional (“kontraktnik”) force with conscripts now restricted to support duties and not involved in combat.
2. Playing to Russian strengths (missiles, radars, cyber warfare and submarines rather than useless expensive aircraft carriers, for example).
3. Cooperating with erstwhile enemy China, to the mutual benefit of both nations.
4. Concentrating on upgrading tried and tested weapon systems, while totally new equipment – from “stealth” aircraft to the Armata AFV complex – were only created in small numbers for evaluation and further development.
All this was still based on the idea of a limited conventional war with a limited military objective, no threat to NATO, and that’s where it would have remained. However…
However, what changed was the Nuland nazi coup in Ukraine in 2014. That it was an Amerikastani coup was clear from the beginning, from the war criminal Nuland itself handing out cookies on the Maidan to its leaked phone call with the Amerikastani “ambassador” Pyatt where the two of them decided the Amerikastani citizen Yatsenyuk would be imposed as the Ukranazi coup regime prime minister (“Yats is the guy…f*ck the EU”). Russia, of course, understood that the nazification of Ukraine was an intolerable threat to itself, since the Ukranazi coup regime was an open NATO puppet. And it therefore realised that it would have to prepare to fight a big war again.
This is the reason why Russia resurrected the famous First Guards Tank Army in 2016. Despite the name, it isn’t just an armoured outfit; it is a combined arms force that is raised, equipped, and trained for the kind of battle that Russia would have to fight to defend itself against the NATOstanis. Now, in 2021, Russia has not just a superiority in missile power, air defence, and cyber warfare, but the First Guards is fully fighting fit.
Once again, remember that this was all created by Amerikastan enlarging NATO when Russia had no ability to attack it even if it had wanted to. Now, if Amerikastan gets its head handed to it on a platter in Ukranazistan, it will fully deserve it.
To Uncle Bob
Pretty good assessment. Well done.
Not my strength, military analysis. But it seems a very even handed assessment. Another factor that I believed helped guide Russian assessments was the Tomahawks based in Romania which Russia for years stated could be converted in a six month time to be nuclear with no verification possible and successive presidents administrations poo-pooed it saying, “Oh no, these are only to be used against Iran.” Denigration.
And not to mention all the Crispr labs located in eastern Europe and Ukraine that are exclusively managed by usOa DOD. It is not that they pose such a huge immediate danger, (IMHO germ and gas weapons are crude, poor to target and blow back) but their positioning is a huge denigration of, well all societal norms and the Russian federation in particular.
Just going out on a limb, I do not expect much to happen in January. The usOa seems to keep staging incidents around the Olympics whenever it is held in the “wrong” places.
I agree Saker – cooler heads should prevail, and a discussion of Russia’s legitimate security needs should be addressed. I have advocated for some time a buffer zone between Russia and NATO countries that would serve as non-aligned and neutral countries. Only time will tell if this will be achieved given Russia’s demands or ultimatum.
That said, any agreement would be preferable to war. The threat of escalation is too great and anyone sane would not argue for annihilation IMO. Russia has many legitimate grievances, but they realize the danger of escalation even more so than does DC. I say DC because I don’t believe DC represents the citizens of the USA. Instead, it represents the interest of the “war party” – I prefer war industry and other global corporations that play in the fields of telecom, fossil fuels, banking (FIRE sector), and health (pharmaceuticals and others). But make no bones about it, the two industries that serve as major exports are war machines and fossil fuels – and they are backed by a FIRE section bent on depriving common Americans of their wherewithal, and an entertainment industry bent on spreading propaganda and disinformation to the populace.
I’ve been noticing data that suggests Russia is struggling, making conciliatory moves by the USA even more imperative. While I know that there are many on the blog that believe Russia is in great financial shape, we know that in his press conference, Putin indicated that:
• Russians were having less children due to household finances
• The country was spending more on social programs for needy families (it cut its defense budget to the lowest level since 2014 I assume to help with this)
• Russia was suffering from Covid infections and that many Russians had refused to be vaccinated with Russia’s own vaccine (according to Putin, globally one in every six or seven deaths are Russians).
• Admitted Russian life expectancy was down
• Said there were challenges in Russia’s labor markets
• less developed regions of the country, and that
• Russia suffered from inflation and that its banks were raising interest rates (this makes borrowing – whether a household or a business – more expensive) – and that this was limiting growth in the economy.
In addition to these frank disclosures by Putin, there was additional news:
• Asia Times reported that there are doubts that the Pantsir short-range and mobile defense system can deal with Turkey’s Bayraktar drones. The reporter made this claim based on the Pantsir’s use in Nagorno-Karabakh, Libya, and Syria.
• Russia’s navy is considered by many to be a “green water” navy, one capable of protecting Russia’s near water with smaller vessels. In addition, this navy won’t begin to refurbish its ships with the Zirkon hypersonic missile until next year and I imagine this will be a phased rollout. And with Russia cutting its defense budget, how can it refurbish its Navy?
• Russia completed its S-500 testing in September of this year and is just rolling this system out. While these are being installed first around Moscow, how many are presently in service on Russia’s western border?
Furthermore, one must wonder what the effect will be on Russia’s economy if Nordstream 2 is not implemented. It will take time to build more pipelines to China. The “Power of Siberia” pipeline began in 2014 and the first stage was completed in 2019 – five years. I understand that this pipeline will be expanded through 2025. But more pipelines will take a long-term perspective – and won’t help Russia cope with its current security crisis.
Is the Bear wounded? If so, how much more likely is outright conflict? Can China be counted upon for support? Where were they in Syria?
There is much to think about. But one thing that won’t generate thought is war. War will make all the plans, if, and, and buts get thrown out the window. Yes, I believe Russia would be able to manage Ukraine, even with its Turkish drones. But would they do this using stand-off weapons alone? If so, they invite retaliation within the borders of Russia. If invasion becomes necessary, my thinking is the key should be to take the entire Ukrainian coastline – depriving NATO of any potential military base there. This would mean the capture of cities such as Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson – thus securing Sevastopol.
I have advocated for some time a buffer zone between Russia and NATO countries that would serve as non-aligned and neutral countries…
Let’s call this space…..the boarder lands…
Brother Kansan, your “any agreement would be preferable to war” might possibly be a bit, ah, unrealistic.
I was at the bank and a cop came in through one door, and a gunman through the other. The gunman and the cop made, weapons drawn, an agreement. The gunman said he’d put his gun down, if the cop did too. They agreed. Then, the gunman shot the cop. It didn’t work out. There was another cop outside…
The US “sought a modus vivendi” with Imperial Japan in 1941, not to make peace, but to make time for further military preparations for war with Japan.
There are many agreements in place now, such as the UN Charter, and the USC. Does Zone A obey these? Or to they serve another purpose?
Like Comrade Lavrov said, politely, karma sutra, or bluntly, “phuxking around”. Zone A is able to “negotiate” same way the mob negotiates, bribes, blackmail, and…. Quiz Friday. One might read “I Hear You Paint Houses” for some ideas.
When Russian fella shows a “guest” the door, he means it. The only thing to negotiate is “which way is door?”
The esteemed intellectuals in Zone A are delusional if they imagine anything but retreat. But they imagine Victory.
I applaud these great statesmen, such as the biden, and their brilliant policy…think about what will happen in the US.
What you say is for the most part accurate. The USA does not hold to its agreements. Ask any Native American. Even as a professed “Christian” nation, the USA has a long history of lying.
That’s why, as Saker indicated, there must be validation with any agreement. This is not a lone gunman vs. a cop at a bank. This is thermonuclear war with all life on the planet at stake.
We’ve had agreements (treaties) with the Soviet Union that did work for some time. The problem with these treaties had nothing to do with violations but with the odd but ridiculous ability for a single president to withdraw from these agreements without approval from Congress. Article 2, section 2 or the USA Constitution says:
“[The President] shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two-thirds of the Senators present concur…”
This should be amended by statue if not by constitutional amendment to state that also, the president does not have power to undo treaties unless two-thirds of the Senators present concur…. He cannot alone decide that the USA can terminate its treaty obligations.
This would have made it impossible for Bush-Cheney to unilaterally withdraw from the ABM treaty and for Trump to unilaterally withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Open Skies treaty.
Please note that START 1 entered into force in 1994 and START 2 continued to build on the progress of START !. START 2 went into effect in 2011. Now both countries are working on a “new START” while honoring the provisions of START 2. Per the Arms Control Blog:
“…the United States and Russia continue to adhere to the limits on their strategic nuclear arsenals imposed by the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), as revealed by a September data exchange between the two sides. The treaty caps U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals at 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed delivery vehicles and heavy bombers each and will expire in 2026…. On-site inspections conducted under New START remain under the suspension begun in March 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Ryabkov said Dec. 13 that ‘the practice of mutual inspection visits will resume as the sanitary situation improves.'”
So the USA and Russia have one agreement in place today and both sides are honoring it (at least this is what they say). Let’s hope this continues.
Now why is it, if the USA has had agreements with Russia (Soviet Union) that have held for decades, we can’t have a treaty that creates a buffer zone around Russia’s western border? Is this not what Russia has put forth?
It’s like saying Texas is a buffer zone. Ukraine is a Russian country. Central Europe can be a buffer zone, for example. From the Baltics to Greece. The same mentality more or less, the same economic power. Americans are working on the 4 Seas Initiative as a backup plan for what is coming. And that is something that Russia should support, but as a neutral zone. Exactly that, what the Americans did not respect after the fall of the Warsaw Pact. Can this time be accepted by Americans? Should one Hungary or Serbia work with China and Russia? Or for Russia, if one Poland work with the Americans? It’s all a matter of agreement. Agreements work between equals. Americans do not respect the weakness. That is why this situation is extraordinary to put things in their proper place.
By the way, I agree with a good part of your analysis.
Exactly – Central Europe should have been designated a neutral buffer zone. The sad thing is that the Russian leader at the time when this could have been stipulated was Yeltsin. The whole pre-Putin period transition from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the emergence of Putin is a black box for me. If you or anyone on the forum knows where one can find a good history of this period, I’d look forward to the read.
And what part of the so-called Ukraine you are from? Your paymasters need to ask for a refund – they haven’t got themselves a really effective troll.
Katerina, your comment is 100% ad hominem. No facts, no arguments, just a hostile opinion. I don’t even know what part of The Kansan comment you find objectionable. This is far below your usual high standards, and it should not have been posted.
If the objectionable part of The Kansan was to list the negative aspects of Russia that might hold it back in confronting NATO aggression, I would say two things.
1. Most important is that the facts from The Kansan are generally accurate. They show a side of Russia that is not encountered often in the Vineyard, so when this distressing data set is mentioned, it might seem like sabotage of a cheering section. Of course, the data presented by The Kansan needs to be evaluated in context. For example, while Russia is losing population, other European nations are losing population far faster.
2. You must ask what is the purpose of the comment section. I think it’s mainly to educate and encourage ourselves. I don’t need a cheering section, but maybe other people find it valuable. But like everyone, I always need more facts and more arguments to consider. What encourages me is when I read high quality comments and I can see that there are other people who are trying to piece together the truth.
You are obviously unable to read between the lines.
So another ad hominem attack, this time on me ? Better get a calming cup of tea.
Reading between the lines does not always give the same info to most readers.
Are you able to say what you found objectionable about the comment from
The Kansan ? My opinion is that you owe the comment section an explanation.
OK, I will explain it to you. This Kansan person is as Russophobic as they come but to cover up his seething hatred for anything Russian he uses what is called passive aggressive tactic. Please read closely his first comment here and then say that you still do not see this his hatred for Russia and Russians. He has toned down his subsequent comments because he got exposed. Does this explanation makes things a little bit clearer for you?
Incidently, there wasn’t any attack on you – only mentioned that while reading other people comments it sometimes helps to apply a little bit more of what’s called a reading comprehension. No, this is not ‘another ad hominem attack”, just a bit of friendly advice. I had to learn that as well. Be well. :-)
I read the first comment from The Kansan and I don’t find much to object to, and even less anything that smells of hatred for Russia. Since we seem to agree that his list of things which hold Russia back are generally true, perhaps we can narrow the discussion to the following:
“Furthermore, one must wonder what the effect will be on Russia’s economy if Nordstream 2 is not implemented. It will take time to build more pipelines to China. The “Power of Siberia” pipeline began in 2014 and the first stage was completed in 2019 – five years. I understand that this pipeline will be expanded through 2025. But more pipelines will take a long-term perspective – and won’t help Russia cope with its current security crisis.
Is the Bear wounded? If so, how much more likely is outright conflict? Can China be counted upon for support? Where were they in Syria?”
Okay, in those two paragraphs The Kansan got a few facts wrong, IMO, but so do many people. So let’s fix that. NordStream 2 is almost not a matter of economics. Here’s what I understand, and anyone can please correct me if I’m wrong: Gazprom has invested US$ 6.5 billion in NS2. But … If the pipleline never opens, Gazprom can sue for hundreds of billions in damages. Also, the huge price rise for gas in 2021 has gone largely to the Russians, I think. As I see it, the real issue of NS2 is to determine whether the EU will increase its trade with Russia, or will it let sanctions continue to rot it into nothingness ? If the EU loses the Russian market, its economic future is damaged. A training course given in 2012 for high-level US Army officers, given at Leavenworth Kansas (yes, Kansas), which had a scenario for a geopolitical/economic confrontation in 2025, and this war plan assumed that the European economy would be so non-existent by 2025, that it was ignored. Sorry, I didn’t record the source. Does anyone else know where it can be found ? So really, NS2 is about the future of at least part of the EU economy and relations with Russia. It’s very important, but it’s not an economic liability for Russia. So Kansan got that wrong, but that doesn’t make him a Russia hater.
Another thing Kansas misunderstood, is that Power Of Siberia 2 is an economic issue. It’s not a security issue for Russia, but it might be for China.
The only line which indicates a Russophobic attitude is the question of whether a “wounded bear” is more dangerous. This rests on two bad ideas. First, that Russia is wounded. Sanctions have more helped Russia than hurt it. I wish I could say the same about the criminal sanctions against Iran, but obviously people in Iran have died because sanctions prevented the import of medicine and limited oil exports which can drive domestic investments. Second, there is a mis-judgement of Russian character. Russians are loathe to go to war, and see it as a very last response. As Christians or Muslims, avoiding war when possible is a moral obligation. After suffering invasions in 1812, 1856, 1914, and 1941, Russians understand war all too well. For America, war it’s a Way Of Life. The US suffered a minor invasion in 1812, but the White House was quickly rebuilt. We could conjecture, rightly or wrongly, that Kansan was projecting a common American perspective, but to accuse his character is a stretch.
China’s support for Syria ? Hundreds of millions of people around the world have been hoping China would come to the aid of Syria, and of Yemen, too. But China’s aid will come, when it comes, in the form of economic trade and aid, not military. China has never sent its forces outside the Middle Kingdom. I believe China has signed significant economic agreements with the Syrian government, and my own expectation is that the Empire is in the process of forfeiting Syria and that China will help rebuild the war-ravaged nation, which of course will only further increase the enormous prestige of China and make the Empire more despised. For the Empire, this is totally self-defeating, but Zionists run the Empire, and they have a narrow vision of what benefits The Tribe. Anyway, that’s all about China, not Russia.
Katerina, I feel like I did the work you ought to have done, to elucidate whatever was wrong with the comment from The Kansan. And I don’t think I uncovered much.
It is more likely that Kansan lives in Moscow than in Ukraine. Well, Moscow, Kansas anyway.
Kansan writes like a conservative American, believing that the Constitution still limits the capacity of the government to do evil. This is not an argument a Ukrainian would use.
The print on my computer is small enough that I need glasses. Please elucidate what is between the lines as I cannot see anything subversive here.
Re: “any agreement would be preferable to war”
From Russian perspective: would they continue to accept worthless agreements in which they eventually lose, versus a war that offers possibilities of victory? The Madman Theory harnessed to Brinkmanship is being used against them and can no longer be tolerated.
From Western perspective: this may be the sole remaining calculus of the sane faction in the AZ West. That they can engage in meaningless agreements while simultaneously engaging in relentless salami tactics and keep approaching Russia at a creeping pace of decades before deploying their first strike. This is no longer valid or acceptable. All surrounding lands and potential offensive platforms will be burned like the surface of the sun, with full legal justification given history and ongoing criminality.
If it clear to us viewers from afar, for sure it is clear to deciders in Russia that only pathologic hatred and genocidal intent remains in the West. A delaying vague agreement merely helps Empire’s odds of returning to a favorable correlation of forces.
And Russians can see that even the sane faction does not fundamentally disagree with the dismemberment, depopulation, pillage and resettlement of Russia, they are merely shy with using Armageddon and nuclear winter to achieve it. So there are no genuine interlocutors for them in the West, merely dissemblers..
Unfortunately for Russia and China and others of the Resistance, there are dark spiritual forces behind Western elites who may not have any compunction in using them to destroy all sides (their true Reset). How can you safely prevent a demonically-possessed nuclear superpower from triggering a nuclear war? It cannot be reasoned with. I agree with those analysts who affirm Russia’s ultimatum was issued with full expectation of refusal and is merely an opening gambit.
Re: “data that suggests Russia is struggling” – this is true, for all economies due to pandemic and adopting disastrous Western lifestyle, and additionally for Russia due to the ongoing decoupling from West. Might this consideration hasten Russia’s chances for waging war now, since they will likely face further biowarfare and lose even more population from despairing West?? A new Iron Curtain with clear break with West offers the hope of halting the cancerous infiltration of Western culture and lifestyle (a Chinese-style Great Internet Firewall), allowing regeneration and healing of decoupled nations.
And what do wounded Bears facing inferior enemies do? Retreat or attack? All indications are thus that it is left to the kinetic domain to determine the next steps of how to be rid of the persistent malignant Parasite.
Very interesting perspective A.H.H. Thanks for sharing.
When I said agreement, I meant one that could be verified by both sides. Of course, an agreement that would remove Ukraine from NATO consideration permanently would be easy to verify. But in addition, such an agreement would allow visits into the Ukraine very similar to UN weapons experts that verify Iranian nuclear facilities or Iraq WMDs. Exactly who does the verification can be specified in the agreement.
I agree the West is riddled with corrupted lying elites motivated by greed and power. They not only control the USA foreign policy but its economy and media as well. Do you think the common American wants sanctions on Russia? One of the funniest ironies going is that that Walmart became the dominant American retail outlet because of its distribution of Chinese-made products, products bought by Trump supporters that bash China all day and who express a desire to go to war, likely not based on the decline in USA manufacturing and jobs as on a pure-bred racism. This same racism resulted in genocide of Native Americans and 400 years of slavery, to give just two examples.
The only lever of power we Americans has over these elites is via our elections, which are shams as well, since both parties in the USA are corporations (true!) and are committed to private interests no matter how villainous. When someone has taken power or threatens to take power away from these elites he is eliminated (JFK, RFK, MLK). The servants of War, Inc., are ruthless.
This is why a verifiable agreement is necessary and why I support Putin in his challenge to the West to come to an agreement or face consequences. If the West cannot come to terms, then war will be inevitable. It is not an outcome any sane person would argue for though, because as I’ve said above, the risk of escalation is very great. I for one do not want to be vaporized, nor do I want my family or friends to be vaporized, simply because leaders from two nations could not reach a verifiable agreement. I’m selfish in that way….
Russia has two versions of every weapon that they export. In Ngorno-Kerabakh and in Libya, you saw the export version. Moreover, they were not manned by Russian military personnel. Also, there was no EW involved in both conflicts.
A war in Ukraine would be much different because the attackers would be facing Russia’s own defenses and her military personnel.
//…..this navy won’t begin to refurbish its ships with the Zirkon hypersonic missile until next year and I imagine this will be a phased rollout. And with Russia cutting its defense budget, how can it refurbish its Navy?
• Russia completed its S-500 testing in September of this year and is just rolling this system out. While these are being installed first around Moscow, how many are presently in service on Russia’s western border?//
VVP has repeatedly mentioned that Russia holds the upper hand in a military conflict and that there are no counterparts to her new weapons systems. Considering his earlier moves, we can assume that the Russian General Staff has studied every possible escalation pathway and that they have the weapons systems ready
Russia’s recent demands don’t seem like those of a naive, ill-prepared country. It’s the US that has been requesting online and in-person meetings from the Russian side.
Furthermore, Russia’s current military doctrine states that any missile attack on Russia proper would be considered a nuclear strike and that it would be answered accordingly. Also, consider the nukes that Russia already had at her disposal before the newest ones were developed. They can decimate the entire Europe in case they are attacked.
// one must wonder what the effect will be on Russia’s economy if Nordstream 2 is not implemented. It will take time to build more pipelines to China. The “Power of Siberia” pipeline began in 2014 and the first stage was completed in 2019 – five years. I understand that this pipeline will be expanded through 2025. But more pipelines will take a long-term perspective – and won’t help Russia cope with its current security crisis.//
You ignore the fact that it was Germany who asked for the NS2. Russia already supplies gas to Europe through the Yamal pipeline. Most importantly, the Western sanctions since 2014 allowed Russia to be more self-reliant and to build new trade partnerships with Asian countries.
The worst that the US/NATO can do is to completely cut Russian gas from Europe and replace it with LNG from the US, but that move itself would do much harm to the EU itself. Russia would probably be able to hold on for several years as they did since 2014.
To summarize, if the current buildup leads to kinetic action, Europe would be the biggest loser. Their capitals and other major cities will be gone within minutes. Even if it doesn’t come down to a nuclear engagement, they will suffer immensely from the loss of cheap Russian gas and the importation of expensive American LNG.
MWNN – great moniker. Big fan. Do you have a poncho too? Just kidding.
I agree with your views. I was aware of the two versions of each weapon system (one for Russian forces and another less capable one for export). But this still does not explain the inability of the Pantsir to deal with Turkish drones. Even if one were to factor in the use of the Pantsir by foreign forces, it is still troubling. The Asia Times article indicated that Russian engineers were hard at work trying to determine how to upgrade the Pantsir to handle these drones. There can really be no margin of error here if a Russian incursion is to be made into Ukraine.
I’m happy that you are confident that Russia has weapons systems that will allow them to prevail should an incursion be necessary. However I’ve read in RT, Sputnik, Tass, and Russia Beyond that the hypersonics are still being field tested and naval vessels and planes are at this point not equipped (refurbished or upgraded) to carry these weapons. There are also articles that state production will not go into high gear until 2022. So while I hope these weapons are on-line and ready to go should an incursion be necessary, what if they’re not? Can existing weapon systems see Russia through? Saker believes so. My only reason for asking is that should they not provide the margin of security necessary in any Russian incursion in Ukraine, what then? Escalation and Armageddon? I don’t like either of those options. A limited police action is the best possible outcome (Georgia, Chechnya).
The West (USA) has already said it will not become involved in any armed conflict in a military way but will use it’s dominant hegemony in the economic sphere to weaken Russia. And it will use Ukrainians as cannon fodder against Russian forces. Finally, the cost to prosecute a long and tangled incursion into Ukraine must be considered. Can Russia deal effectively even in victory with guerilla warfare waged against them? Will they enter and then pull back? Will they simply use stand-off missiles? I question the latter strategy because of what has happened in Syria – the Russian Air Force has dropped tons of bombs on ISIS and Turkish proxies and yet they still exist and persist. How long can Russia maintain this effort?
And where, once an incursion or invasion happens, will it end? Many have suggested the Dnieper River should be the goal. But this river runs all the way to Kiev. I would think they’d better off securing the entire coast. This would protect Sevastapol and keep NATO naval forces at bay for good. But would they be able to hold this area, not just militarily but economically??? Big questions – and thus my expose on Russia’s economy. All the points I made were pulled from Putin’s press conference, which I read completely.
1. pantsir systems didn’t proove to be ideal defence against bayraktar drones. that is a fact. but:
– like your opponent said, those were export, less capable version systems.
– those were operated by local, not really trained personnel. in fact, about a half of destroyed pantsirs were not active, just sitting while personnel was not even in position. one of syrian pantsirs was destroyed while operators stopped to have a cigarette, literally, and they got caught on the drone camera even.
– the rate of destroyed pantsirs vs destroyed heavy drones is roughly 1:1
– pantsir systems were not deployed in armenia.
one more thing. pantsir was never supposed to be the backbone of AA defence, even in theory. russian AA defence doctrine is about multi-layered, interconnected defence zone created by various systems. it’s like this: long range S-500 and S-400 heavy systems cover 400-500 km radius, from 100 to 200 km – S-300 systems, primary targets for those are (nuclear capable) ballistic missiles and aircrafts. within 100 km range now infamous buk systems (and other medium range systems) engage primarily (survived) aircrafts and cruise missiles. doctrine also suggests aircrafts are taking their part in defence. the last layer of defence are various short-range systems, one of those is pantsir indeed, designed to protect troops on march from whatever penetrated AA zone.
it’s not like heavy drones like bayraktar or predator will be a realistic threat unless the entire russian AA defence complex is overhelmed (and if it is, well, drones still are not the main threat).
2. zircon hypersonic missiles are unified with yakhont and oniks antiship missiles, they all use the same launchers. there is no need to upgrade carriers – just to supply with new missile type. almost every modern russian missile cruiser/frigate/corvette already test-fired zircons, and i suppose the “in testing” status could be changed to “deployed” whenever russian defence minister wants.
that being said, russian navy is “green water” navy by design. it’s supposed to protect russian shores, not to “progect power”, direct confrontation us/nato navy far from home is not and never was conciderable option. the only offensive navy units are nuclear-capable strategic submarines. well, russian navy operating whithin range of coastal defence missile systems bastion and bal… let’s say you can have your blue waters, just don’t even think to get close.
this concept is actually known as AA/AD in western sources. modern russian military tech is state of the art and superior, especially in missile tech, to any western “partners” have. well, russian military is outnumbered by nato hordes, so the outcome of possible conflict is unclear. what is a fact – russia have no real opportunity of aggression, incursion, invasion or whatever you call it.
you know what is the most infuriating thing about all this russian agression bs? russian troops are – allegedly – concentrated at 160 miles of the russian-ukrainian border. get yourself a map, you freaks. the distance between Moscow and the border is about 300 miles. troops (allegedly) are CLOSER to the russian capital than to the border. the chutzpah of western demands is unbearable.
Terrific piece. The US emerged from WWII as the world’s leading military and economic power. Since that time US hegemony has rested on: unrivaled military/economic power, control of world’s energy reserves (primarily in the ME), and maintaining the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. All of the pillars supporting post-WWII US power have been eroded over the last 5 decades. Consider-
1) Decades of Neo-liberal economic policies- multiple tax cuts for the wealthy, financial deregulation and job out-sourcing have increased unequal wealth distribution and poverty.
2) None of the structural problems giving rise to the Global Financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-2008 were resolved (see 1, above). Instead, the FED has used the Treasury as a de facto taxpayer-supported ‘piggy bank’ (the FED cannot print money) to provide > $40 trillion of ultra-cheap money to prop up equities, bonds and over-priced real estate (creating the ‘everything bubble’); the FED is currently spending $120 billion/month buying toxic corporate debt. To put this in perspective, since Mar, 2020, US government debt has hemorrhaged circa $6 trillion; total US debt exceed $28.5 trillion (See- Federal Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN); Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN).
3) Complementing these economic problems, American society is plagued by severe social problems- increasing poverty and violence. Over the last decade, there have been 180 school shootings- 365 victims (Link: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/07/us/ten-years-of-school-shootings-trnd).
4) US taxpayers have spent circa $21 trillion on post-911 militarization. Despite this taxpayer largess, the Pentagon confronts a repeat of Afghanistan- a $2 trillion debacle in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, poorest country in the ME. Indeed, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has served as US/UK proxy on the Arabian Peninsula, attacking Yemen. Despite being much better equipped, MBS’s forces are being routed by the Houthi/Ansar Allah movement, who are poised to take over the oil-rich region of Marib. The situation in Yemen has increased the power of the Islamic Republic or Iran in the region and vividly shown the limits of US/NATO power.
5) The Russia-China-Iran axis has obtained military and economic parity with the US and has become an increasingly assertive obstacle to US global power.
6) The rot/ putrefaction late-stage American capitalism has progressed to the point where its very survival is contingent upon constant debt monetization (aka money printing) to prop up financial markets and the military. This is becoming increasingly tenuous as this orgy of money printing and debt has created gigantic bubbles in every asset class- ‘everything bubble’, increasing inflation and threatening to derail the dollar’s role as world reserve currency and viability of western capitalism.
Bottom line- the American empire has no solution to severe economic and social problems it confronts. The US ruling elite are attempting to compensate by an aggressive and bellicose military response in Ukraine/Black Sea- to confront Russia, Persian Gulf- Iran and Taiwan Strait/S China Sea- China. Unfortunately, the Empire does not have sufficient force projection to prevail in any of these theaters. It is difficult to see this ending well.
I don’t believe the USA wants direct war with Russia. They want Ukraine to be a cause celiebre, one that its War, Inc., can get behind and make some money. The profit motive is key here. Ukraine doesn’t matter one iota to the USA, except as a means to increase the wealth of those calling the shots – War, Inc., and its investors. If Russia elects to respond to a Ukrainian provocation, such as bombings of the breakaway republics, with standoff weapons, the USA will ask its European vassals to spend more money on its overpriced and poorly performing weapons and it will also ask the taxpayer to undertake more debt to pay for weapons that will keep Ukraine in the ballgame – regardless of whether Ukraine falls or not.
We know from what the Saker has written, that Russia does not desire to take over Ukraine – too costly and draining on its already shaky economy. So given that, will the entire episode devolve into a long war – think Afghanistan? If not, Russia must invade and the goal, IMO, should not be east Ukraine, but south Ukraine that abuts the Black Sea. Would it be able to administer this region without it turning into a guerilla warfare zone for a long period of time?
Excellent summary Paul. Rooted in long term political economy. Brenner’s book on global turbulence provides a slightly longer economic tale to yours.
The West/US/NATO will retreat one way or another. It’s inevitable and it will be soon. There’s a multitude of ways this can be achieved with different responses or agreements, escalation levels, and humiliation and hysteria levels for the West/US/NATO. In all those cases, the diplomatic and voluntary one is the least humiliating and destructive for the West, but still somewhat humiliating. The more humiliating, the more likely to cause the West to enter a final tailspin and crash comprehensively. Even the voluntary retreat would cause a lot of hardship for the militarily/economically/politically/culturally weakened and worn-out West. Unavoidably, they need to adapt and grow up.
There’s wisdom in retreat, but they don’t seem to realize it. There’s maturity and strategic prowess in that. Humility is the key to all things.
I imagine a cartoon. “Biden” is shown with two faces, one pointing East and the other West.
The Western face says, “The Russians are bluffing, they are weak, their GDP is less than Italy’s, they will crumble when we threaten them”.
The Eastern face says, “Please don’t hurt me! I didn’t mean any of what I said to my own people. We are ready to grovel to you. Please don’t hurt me!”
Not sure if following writing was brought to this forum before, … hence here it is:
RUSSIA’S NON-AGGRESSION PACT IS AN OFFER FOR GERMANY TO REALIZE THE US WON’T NEGOTIATE BECAUSE THE BLIN-NEEDLE GANG WILL FIGHT TO THE LAST GERMAN, THEN RUN AWAY
@johnhelmer – … here is just a snip:
Will the war start? Silly question – the war won’t start because it has already started, and has been in active use-of-force mode since February 2014 when the US overthrew the Kiev government of President Victor Yanukovich; attempted to take Russian bases in Crimea; and followed in July of that year with the plot to down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 and trigger a NATO invasion of the Donbass.
Right now on the Ukraine front, Russia will do nothing new; that’s to say, nothing more than it has already done, and is doing. But if and when Germans agree to the Americans deploying nuclear-capable weapons on Ukrainian territory, as they have already done in Romania, Poland, and the Black Sea, then the Stavka in Moscow will do something no western intelligence agency, think-tank, propagandist, and least of all the Japanese mouth organ known as the Financial Times will have anticipated.
Professional clowns up and down the breadth of the world will be up in arms at their comparison to Stoltenberg. Expect a plethora of lawsuits!!!
So, the boomer generation on both sides is dying out, and the parting gift they want to give the younger generations is a world war. We will not fall for it like the boys in 1914. Who wants do die for Biden? Or Putin? Screw that. All this warmongering…for what? Glory? Ideology? Stupid landgrabs?
Russia has a conscript army. Why would a generation that grew up in peace and prosperity want to throw that away? No conscript has the motivation to die for something he gains nothing from. What can a conscript gain in war that they haven’t gained in peace the last 15 years? Nothing!
Russia does not have a conscript army. You need to update your data base.
Russia has a mixed army, there still is conscription. My point stands
Adam, you profoundly misunderstand the situation. For the Empire and its conscripts, war is an option, a way to make a living by threatening and killing people outside the Empire. For Russia, it’s a matter of survival, with no more room to retreat. While Russia still drafts men, they are all in support roles, and combat roles are assigned to the kontraktniki, i.e. professionals, and they tend to be single young men. From what I see of Russia on various blogs, including not-so-patriotic ones, I have no doubt that the conscripts are also keen to defend their homeland. I know a few American officers and low-ranking men. It’s a career; they have never risked their lives, and really don’t expect to.
If you think this is about Glory, Ideology or Landgrabs, you understand nothing of importance. There is no Glory at stake here. The difference in Ideology is not respectable. Hard to believe anyone has to say this in 2021, but Russia is Capitalist and mostly Christian. The only ideological contention is whether globalist financiers should continue to run the world, or whether National Sovereignty is worth fighting for. Land Grab ? On whose part ? Certainly Russia does not need or even want more land. I think the Zionists want a land grab for a new homeland when they get kicked out of Palestine, but if Americans understand any war over the Ukraine is just to replace an “Israel”, then none of them will want to fight. I’m hoping the UkroNazis will wake up, smell the coffee, and realize the Zionists are planning to take their land. BTW, the threat to the Ukraine comes from the Zionists, not from “all” Jews. If you think I’m peddling a bogus conspiracy, ask yourself why Victoria Nuland recently had a 50 minute propaganda piece on the Ukraine, on America’s NPR (National Propaganda Radio) hosted by another Jew. You do know about Victoria Nuland and all the other neocons, don’t you ? Mostly of Jewish ethnicity, and all are loyal to The Tribe.
The measure of the West has been taken. The Timing is what Putin controls.
I see he has NATO in Shoigu’s sights. He has the Ukies in Donbass Army’s sights.
He has Biden and the Russophobes in the US measured personally.
The Atlanticists don’t know where, how, what means or with what weapons, and when Putin will strike.
Most don’t think Russia will act.
We do hear Czech and German voices urging cautions about poking the Bear.
We know there are NATO members that want no part of a war against Russia.
This is a war coming with a hope and a wish and a fantasy the Atlanticists have worked hard to generate.
Russia hates war but will deliver a war to the West that will end Ukraine, NATO and the EU. It will truncate the US and slice half its Earthly kingdom.
The US can surrender to the Russian demands or lose.
NATO can retreat or be driven back, virtually destroyed.
And in the reserves of the Russian Federation stands China and the PLA.
The Globe is under tectonic change. Unstoppable movement.
Definitely a tectonic shift is coming.
NATO will not retreat. There has been too much of a build up: mediatic, diplomatic, military… for them to fold quietly without losing face. They think they can control it. I fear the worst.
NATO is deep into the Bear’s forest. Positionally, they are in an uphill locus. The first salvos will decimate what they think is a defendable front.
Not only will they lose all their assets along the Black Sea, the Baltics, near Belarus and Kaliningrad, the Western Military District and Southern District will clobber them with ferocity their military has never seen.
It will be a lightning war of missiles. Russian EW will blind the West and cancel their communications.
There is no military on Earth that can accept what Russia will deliver in the first hours. If it is reliably true that the US has 4000+ men on the contact line in Ukraine, they will be ashes when the Donbass erupts. NATO is said to have 8000 at least in Ukraine. They will be decimated.
This war is destined to be short and horrific for the West. The worst thing is to underestimate your enemy. The West looks down on Russia and badly, tragically underestimates the fury that Russia will launch.
Look at the goals Russia must achieve:
A Ukraine with no nazis and no military capacity to threaten Russia or operate in its sphere of influence.
NATO back in West Europe with no Intermediate Range Nuclear missiles.
Those two goals require a victory over both Ukraine and NATO. They have to submit to Moscow.
As for the US, the war itself will be death to the hegemony beyond the Atlantic. Russia will gain its historic sphere of influence.
The West can peacefully retreat and concede what Russia wants, or lose and surrender it all.
I will point you to the big battles to clear ISIS and AQ from Syrian cities. The Russians were pinpoint and ferocious and each battle ended very quickly. The longest battle was nine days, with one that went fourteen days in two parts. Taking care of civilians in urban battles slowed things.
Fighting NATO will be unrestrained. It will be hours not days for most locations.
Russia has prepared for this for 20 years. The West is unprepared.
My other concern is Turkey; what will Erdogan do should events flare off in eastern Ukraine?
1. Engage more directly in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
2. Provide more drone support or even Turkish troops as a NATO member to Ukraine?
3. Make a bolder move in Syria?
Erdogan and Turkey know better than to make a move. He’s got huge problems with his own domestic economy, his currency is crashing and he is always a CIA target. They want to replace him with their puppet, Gulen.
If he joins NATO as a combatant against Russia, it will be his last act.
Article 5 obligates NATO to come to the aid of any member that is attacked. But we already see Norway will stay out of it. There are many others, at the sound of the first shot, will stay out of it.
NATO is a criminal organization, not a true military. They are treaty conscripts for the US to push at others.
And as we see, the Ukies are pushed first, then NATO.
Turkey understands the S-400, which defends Russia. They know the toll it will take and the decisive effect of Russian attack weapons systems protected by the missiles defenses.
Erdogan has had enough problems with his Air Force. They were the leading edge in the coup attempt against him. Putting them into action against S-400s and S-500s, BUKSs and Pantsir-1s,-2s is suicide.
So, Erdogan will be happy not to get in the crossfire. If he made a move in Syria, Russia would crush his troops in half an hour. They already tasted Russian anger once before.
The Russians would unleash Syria and Kurds against him also. Erdogan would be in six kinds of hell if he acted against Russia.
It’s a non-starter. His tourism and tomato industries depend on Russia, and he makes billions from natural gas through the Turkish Stream from Russia.
It depends what ” stay out of it” means for the Russians. If they think the Greeks letting US use its military base at Souda Bay in Crete, or the Italians let the US use its Aviano airbase or the Napoli military port, means they are willful participants, both Greece and Italy may be at the receiving end of Russian Kh- 102 , Kinzhal or other type of long range missiles. Dito for the Romanian and Polish bases. Both these countries do not need to commit soldiers/air-force or navy to be regarded by the Russian army as legitimate targets for retaliations.
I am not sure at what mechanism is in place(if any) that would allow Nato countries to prevent US from using their basis in case of conflict. I can see perhaps Turkey ( if it has the wisdom like they had it in 1941) to say no to US using its military airports, but smaller countries, will likely become choice target for the Russians.
As much as I do want to see the tectonic shift, don’t you think you are too optimistic on the performance of the Russian army? NATO has it own strength, and are you sure everything can be settled by hypersonic missiles?
I feel like being on the edge of an abyss…..
Andrei Martyanov says Russia has Escalation Dominance. We know they have missile dominance. We know they have missile defense dominance. We know they have radar and EW dominance. They fight from interior lines, so logistics is no problem. They have had 90% of their pilots fly multiple tours of combat in Syria. Tens of thousands of their troops have cycled through Syria. They are fighting for the security of their Motherland.
Every advantage in war is theirs.
NATO has no strengths. Where have they ever fought a land war? They are used to bombing defenseless third world nations.
Their defense ministers are like a Halloween freak show in West Hollywood.
The best Air Force in NATO next to US is Turkey. They won’t be joining NATO for the war.
Norway has good fighters in small numbers, but they won’t be joining the war.
Who is going to be waging this NATO war you worry about.
Ukies, Poles, Liths? They are used to killing women and children with sniper rifles and mortars.
When Russia opens with salvos of missiles and rockets, those front lines of “NATO” will be ashes.
As Auslander says, payback will be hell. Russian speaking citizens of Donbass have suffered enormous losses and pain for almost eight years. Once they start rolling, everything in the East will twisted steel and ashes in front of them.
The West will be screaming for a ceasefire, but if war is what the West starts, Russia is going to finish it.
Nothing is forgotten. Nothing will be forgiven.
Hated and greed is all the West professes. It will pay for those sins.
In 1999 NATO did not dare launch a ground war/invasion against Serbia, their troops sat on the Macedonian border, mainly 10,000 or so British soldiers, whilst launching incursions from Albania over the mountains using mercenaries & US & UK special forces. These special forces were obliterated in the legendary battles for Koshara & Pashtrik border points, there were mercs from all over the world, many mujahid, just like in Syria. Serbian forces, alongside a number of Russian volunteers, slaughtered them in battle. That was then – 1999. Now in 2021/22, NATO against Russia? With China closely allied in the background? It will be a disaster for the entire West from which it would not recover, the US would potentially go into a terminal political crisis bringing about the dissolution of the United States, along the lines JM Greer hypothesized in Twilight’s Last Gleaming (a great book Saker/Andrei has recommended, I second that recommendation).
Astute analysis and set of predictions, but the West would most definitely NOT be “screaming for a ceasefire.” Well, some of the Euros might be, but nobody cares what they want or think. Americans would be screaming for the nuclear annihilation of Russia, and most Americans (trust me, I know these people) are deluded enough to think they could win a nuclear war (“Russia is just a gas station with nukes”–and they believe those nukes are rusty things from the 1950s with similarly antiquated delivery systems). You will see not only the populace demand nuclear annihilation, but most of Congress as well, as it’s inconceivable to them that they should lose face to the country (and its predecessor) that has been the USA’s Number One enemy/bogeyman since 1917–with the trivial interruption of the Second World War, of course. In such a situation it’s questionable whether rational minds would prevail; as it is now, they’re already in the minority.
I’m sure people like Putin and Lavrov understand this all too well and for this reason have been so cautious, even frustratingly so, with the USA.
Probably why the Russian subs have deployed.
I fully agree with Larchmonter445 and Serbian Girl.
The Saker writes “Most military officials seem to believe that a full-scale war against NATO will not happen, but that some kind of conflict with the Ukraine is now inevitable.” Think about that . . . how exactly is NATO not going to be involved, considering the degree that US and NATO military “advisers” are now involved there? Shoigu himself confirmed that the US had sent 120 mercenaries to Ukraine to the same villages where containers of “unknown chemical compounds” had been delivered (see https://tass.com/world/1379319 ).
There will be no NATO retreat or surrender by the US . . . the Western “leaders” believe their own propaganda these days. Martyanov has documented the extensive incompetence of those running the show; most apparently have no idea what is about to be unleashed upon them. I think “most military officials” are in for a very big surprise, along with all the fools in Washington and at NATO headquarters.
I can’t quite tell if we are watching Dr. Strangelove or Fail Safe. And sometimes it feels like the WWE Tag Team Championship with Putin/Xi vs. Biden/Bojo. At least I know who I would bet on. And that gives me hope.
But I’m afraid I’m with Serbian Girl on this one.
After all, the ones who have brought us to this place are the disciples of those who, in 1963, murdered a president because he preferred peace to war. Since then millions have died.
So maybe it’s more like “forget it Jake. It’s Chinatown.”
Our Saker wrote, “Also, Stoltenberg has said that there will be a meeting between NATO and Russia on the 12th.”
Why did the Head-of-The-Snake pick the twelfth?
I referred back to my notes on the NATO organization that I used in a previous post and looked at their calendar of meetings dated January 12, 2022.
Sure enough, NATO’s Military Committee will meet on January 12-13, 2022.
See: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_190402.htm .
Refer to the third the bullet point about NATO’s Military Committee:
“The Military Committee is responsible for translating political decision and guidance into military direction, and for recommending measures considered necessary for the defence of the NATO area and the implementation of decisions regarding military operations.”
See; https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49633.htm? .
The NATO-Russia Council hasn’t met in two years, so if Mr. Lavrov goes to Brussels to meet with Stoltenberg, he will be there at the same time as the Military Committee meeting.
Stoltenberg would be able to give immediate input to the Military Committee, which might disadvantage Russia depending upon what comes out of the Military Committee Meeting.
Perhaps Lavrov should insist that Stoltenberg meet with him in Moscow that is to say make NATO come to Russia. That way the Foreign Ministry can communicate directly to President Putin or even the Russian Defense Ministry and avoid an unfortunate happening such as the cellular network goes down or Lavrov can’t leave Belgium for some unknown reason.
Do wehave any thoughts about the replacement of Stolt when his (extended) term ends by Mach 2022?
Those are, in fact ,a facts! Russia will not surender! Because if Russia surrender it will perish as a state!
Hmmm….who will the USA (negotiation) submission by a military technical knock out team be….3 stooges Blinken Nuland Donfield or that James someone who is Secretary of Defence? ….I think there was talk or suggestions or options etc of various subgroups….would they only operate if there was a consensus by USA reached with Russia… but if no outright agreement to agree in the first meetings then there would be no point in all of those kinda sideline things happening….?? ?
Putin has miraculously kept the hardline extremists in the Russian Duma at bay, but for how much longer, while Sleepy Dopey Joe Biden the Grandmaster of Irish Blarney is usurped by a Shadow Cabal intent on not going down or relinquishing their perceived geopolitical power without a fight. Yes, these sociopaths and their EU parliamentary lapdogs will tenaciously fight to the last braindead Ukrainian/Polak Nazi.
Let’s hope that when Russia ultimately needs to strike, for peace of mind, it is the Cowboys and not the Ukrainian Indians who’ll feel the majority of the blowback. That is, the NATO H/Q/Bases and Kiev Parliament buildings are struck first.
There is an article on the Duran site by Matthew Ehret (Russian Security Proposals vs Unipolar Sabre rattling: What’s Next?) where 8 people of various backgrounds from journalists to geopolitical anaylists were brought together to comment on the NATO/Russia/Ukraine standoff brought together by Dr. Edward Lozansky and the American University in Moscow.
Their views run from pessimism to optimism with the last two being very insightful as to the thinking of the US and Ukraine. Mila Melnichuk advisor to the Ukrainian government talks about how the eastern Ukrainians want to develop better relations with Russia but if Russia invades they will coalesces against any attack, and recommending Russia recognize both of the break away republics.
The last presenter is a resident of Israel working for the US government in DC and is very pessimistic believing for many reasons there will be war. Nobody knows, nobody can predict the irrational behavior of psychopaths but the beast is cornered and anything can happen. When embassies start evacuating to me that will be a sure sign of what the future will bring.
“The protocol (Geneva Protocol) and the convention were ratified by President Ford on January 22, 1975. The U.S. instrument of ratification of the convention was deposited on March 26, 1975, and of the protocol on April 10, 1975.” If your postscript is accurate, and there is no reason to believe it isn’t, how can the U.S. justify or get away with such a flagrant violation that is now known to a segment of the public with superior intellect who understand the nature of the violation and its ramifications? The least worrisome ramification is a formal complaint to the U.N. and/or UNSC, the most worrisome would be a justified attack against the installation and anyone in/around it that would light the fuse of a brief local skirmish or a full blown nuclear exchange. Why does not Putin summon the U.S. ambassador to the Kremlin, show him the evidence and read him the riot act? What is going on if this is accurate = very alarming and totally insane!!
To paraphrase, Russians know how to die; the west doesn’t know how to live.
The western political and mass media organs are cheerleading their way to Gotterdammung
This might be for the elites, good news as their economic system is broken and they’ll be able to blame the evil others, any others….
NATO does not seem worried about the Russian air defences, because they claim they can disable them at will, therefore the Russians are bluffing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xc4KfgWR4_4
With this kind of attitude NATO does not take the Russian government seriously. It seems the upcoming “negotiations” are all about delaying tactics.
Unless the Ukraine-NATO attack LDNR (or god forbid, launch chemical weapons attack) I think Russia will “tighten screws” in multiple phases:
Phase 1: Non-confrontational
*Ban NATO, Australian, & possibly Japanese airlines from using Russian airspace
*When reporting economic & financial news, exclude figures in US dollars and euros
*Refuse to accept US dollars, GB pounds, and euros for all exports
*Forbid state institutions from purchasing US T-bills
*Give appropriate notice and withdraw from International Olympic Committee, and International Space Station
*Give same recognition to mRNA vaccines as the West does for Sputnik V
*Ban exports of excess petroleum to NATO
Phase 2A: Lawfare
*Enact the same restrictions against BBC, CNN, Google, MSNBC, etc as NATO does against RT, Sputnik, Southfront.org, etc
*Prosecute and sue NATO companies for transgressions in Russia (i.e. make life difficult for MasterCard, Visa, ExxonMobil, Lockheed-Martin, etc.)
*Tariffs and fines against Boeing, Airbus, Rolls-Royce, etc.
*Publicise intention to fulfill Interpol arrest warrants against Donald Trump and other current and former USA regime officials
*Seize diplomatic properties of individual NATO countries using the same excuses (word-for-word) they used to justify stealing Russian properties
Phase 2B: Foreign Aid
*Provide fully modernised Su-27s, MiG-29s, S-300s, and other used stock to Cuba, Iran, Serbia, Syria, Venezuela, and other “Zone B” countries bullied by NATO. (Note: this can be a friendly competition with China to provide older but still serviceable weapons to those in need. This can also force Russia and China to upgrade current units with Su-57s, S-500s, etc.)
*Announce sales of S-500s and A-235s to China, and Belarus
Phase 3: Aggressive Military Exercises
*Joint exercise with China using the noisy Type 092 to test S-500s & A-235s, firing simple trajectory ballistic missiles that closely simulate Minuteman 3 ICBMs. Have the submarine fire its missiles 300km west of Canadian province of British Columbia.
*Aggressive patrolling of Russian borders with NATO, with a lower threshold to fire weapons at any NATO ships or aircraft that violate Russian borders.
*Increase frequency and intensity of military exercises with CSTO and China that realistically simulate NATO tactics.
[If NATO is still hostile then…]
Phase 4: Military Strikes Outside NATO
*Large scale air and missile strikes against al-Tanf airbase in Syria
*Missile strikes against US bio-warfare labs in former Soviet Union (e.g. Georgia, central Asian “stans”)
[If NATO is still belligerent then…]
Phase 5: Destruction of Ukraine & NATO Infrastructure
*Full air, artillery, and missile strikes against Ukrainian nazis and their NATO “advisors”
*Missile and drone strikes against Igor Kolomoisky and other Ukrainian oligarchs
*Missile strikes against all individual NATO military HQ, Buckingham Palace, and all spy agency HQs in each NATO country
On a related note: ZeroHedge reports today that 20 LNG tankers are headed for Europe and gas futures are falling:
Words are words but actions are real. IMHO, replacing cheap Russian gas with expensive “Freedom Gas” is the desired outcome of Phase I. I feel that from what has been reported on this site, the Russian people would not be unhappy to see the Iron Curtain fall. Teach the EU a lesson. With the price of gas futures falling, potential false flags in Ukraine and Russian red lines crossed, the people of the EU may also be about willing to accept the Iron Curtain that their puppet rulers want.
And even more LNG capacity is being constructed in the US:
Russia loses. The EU loses. US companies win!
Where’s the mystery?
When greed is a viable motive, why seek for other more convoluted motives?
The prices are “falling” from the top of an insane gravity defying high.
The prices are still 50% or more higher than the once fixed contract prices with Russia.
Various ZH commentators, and others in other tweep threads have calculated the benefit of this “flotilla”.
I can’t follow all the maths but it is between one and three days worth of EU gas usage.
And “freedom molecules” ain’t free.
This is gas that had been designated for the Asian market.
But diverse to EU because of the (previously unimaginable) prices.
Follow @JavierBlas. #OOTT the traders running the oil and gas industry
Here’s a cute gif of a US tanker doing a u-turn off the Indian coast and taking its load to EU.
That’s what extortionate prices will accomplish.
Futures are now back upward at 1.252
“The US did not provide Russia with any answer on Friday. ”
They shall never provide an answer. They feel safe.
Resisting The West is unthinkable idea for western elites.
What is interesting is that the US is not only “on ice” externaly but internaly. From an economic point of view the US is out of options. And that is where I see the US the most voulnerable at this point of time. The money is there, but it is not worth much more…At least not for long.
Israel is awfuly quiet, Britain is stuck in its own pile of poo, France is without the French with signs of a potential coupt d’etat, Germay is having internal strugles between the economic and political elites on top of an identity crisis, Greece (part of the Greek islands) will be sold to Turkey by the US as a compensation, Spain-Portugal-Italy agricuture is on the verge of colapse (no slave labor for the farms thatnks to COVID)…I wonder how many right wing parties will take power within the next 5 years.
fatastically written short blunt truthful announcement Andrei –
The Russians are not bluffing and the Americans — those still lucid, anyway — know that. They also know that this time round they will be facing, if the proverbial sh#t hits the fan, a two-front war, one across the Atlantic and one across the Pacific; one they — the lucids — know they have a snowflake’s chance in hell of winning, if ‘winning’ has any meaning at all post a nuclear exchange.
For the first time in its short existence the Hegemon has received a credible, direct challenge from one of its chief rivals and it has two, and only two, choices — go further up the path of war or stop and parley. There are many voices, both internally and externally, pushing the Hegemon to war but I believe the Hegemon wants still to survive, to exist, and so it will opt to parley.
We will know for sure in mid-January; plenty of time for me to finish rereading Tolstoy’s erm, masterly short story, ‘Master and Man’ which I couldn’t help picking up after reading Josep Borrell’s pathetic plea to the US for EU to be included, or rather, not to be left out — echoes of Brekhunov (master) abandoning Nikita (servant) in a fierce snow storm in the story — of the US’s thoughts in its deliberations with the Russians.
In the meantime, I think it is not too early to wish everyone a Happy New Year.
I’m waiting for:
“Iran has entered the thread”.
Meaning. The US *should* understand that China is covering Russia’s “back”, and may make a move itself.
But what of other players? Many pawns on the chessboard might become emboldened once the US is focused on Russia.
But what of other players?
Good point White Whale. From the Hegemon’s point of view, I think it needs to make sure that everyone stays on board now that another great power has thrown the gauntlet so to speak. Not everyone in Nato’s amen corner is keen on following the US no matter what, I don’t think — look at Turkey, Poland. I’ll bet that many, including its kapo in Nato, the UK, are doing some serious soul-searching now that they are staring down the barrel of an Iskander. It has finally struck them that far from ensuring their security, Nato has in fact threatened it. It is realpolitik from now on, from the day RF presented the ultimatum; every Euro Nato country is now thinking in selfish terms. RF knows that and that’s why it is open to bilateral discussions with individual Nato members in addition to the Nato-RF Council.
Botulin toxin and CR?Jesus ,tohse are chemical and weapons of mass destruction!
Be so kind as to bear with a few thoughts from a modest observer:
I don’t know how much weight Russians give to the fact that Americans are not mentally capable of conceiving defeat. The ruling class is genuinely, multigenerationally self-deluded and unprepared to this: whatever they do, this time there is no-one coming to save the day, there is no sequel. Europe and US are collapsing and nothing can stop this.
And no-one from outside will, since the grapes of wrath are rather ripe and we do not deserve any help from anyone on the planet – it is crystal clear we have no door to knock at, this time. Europeans didn’t deserve this but again, they do since being passive-aggressive does not earn you any slack.
Europeans and Russians have had their lands set on fire for millennia and we are able to take no for an answer – way too often actually. You literally don’t know how to behave when one day, defeat comes: you inevitably turn into a sore loser. I don’t think they even have the words to speak out to their people in public and once admit they have lost.
The hungry jaws of neo.libs are deep into what is left of European economy -private capital coming for seconds- to suck dry right now. It is pointless to talk to them, while – wild bet – I assume Israel is a voice surely listened to in Washington.
Could the coming Russian retaliation might then be to apply maximum military pressure in Syria and come out with some curb balls – perhaps Libya or Eastern-Central Africa?
Or Turkey? Say in exchange for blackmailing Europe like the old times with immigration, Russia and China bail Erdogan out and guarantee him some larger-than-life economic and industrial boost from SCO and China.
That might simply be the last blow to cripple Eastern Europe’s loyalty to Brussels in terms of trade: say within six months from now Russia comes up with an ace up their sleeve, and the SCO/EAEU establish at least on paper the first trade routes ranging from Pakistan to Turkey
And from Turkey up to Ukraine, Poland and Hungary – not the BRI yet but almost. If this comes to a broken European goods and energy market, not even the lapdogs at the head of Balkans’ governments will be able to keep Russia and China out.
Even if just on paper, might that make it possible for Turkey to compensate its citizens with…government bonds backed by a huge sort of SCO Marshall plan? This in exchange for not selling off lira for dollars?
I don’t mean to abuse Occam’s razor, but if Israel wanted any more friendly policies towards Russia, we’d have them. If the US wanted some friendly policies towards Russia and Israel didn’t, no way they would implement them.
So I guess with the US it could be one big theatre, useful to Putin to sedate its exasperated people awaiting to finally kick NATO’s ass – the real talk, perhaps, is with Israel.
How do you threaten israel without a nuclear conflict?
By finally surgically removing Turkey from the West, something that Erdogan wouldn’t think twice about doing if guaranteed a prime status for Turkey in the SCO/EAEU club and a few dozen billions every year in cash, infrastructure and goods.
The SCO/EAEU saving Erdogan’s butt might also be the only explanation for his monetary policy.
If Turkey comes to terms with Iran through the SCO, that is, finally, how to start hurting Israel.
He is old and megalomaniac and might just want to end his career leaving Turkey virtually still a NATO member bur really the strongest military power – aside form Iran – in a newborn, vast regional community with enormous trade potential.
From Russia’s perspective, I don’t see anyone else (unless Christ awakens the French) with relatively broad space of maneuver in the region and both crazy and desperate enough to come up with a game-changing move – and make it quick.
Besides, Turkey gets to be at the helm of an unprecedented muslim economic community, alternate to the GCC, one whose maximum extension goes from Indonesia, through Pakistan and Afghanistan and Iran westwards up to Albania, plus the Turkic Stans.
And this hurts so many, because if you shift the balance of trade power among muslim countries away from the Saudi peninsula, then Israel and the US also lose their referents for Syria – Basically, wherever one looks, the US has lost or is losing it all: it is just a matter of when and with how much blood – but the world has changed and whose blood this time will come as a surprise.
Strength with alienate people can give them back some rationality. They need some good guards they can’t ignore. So even it ‘s perhaps too simple, some torpedoes patrolling the coasts of the US as some analyst said could be these new factors of rationality. It’s the critical point i think. Even if nuclear weapon is a nightmare, really.
Really? The Americans are stockpiling chemical bioweapons? Undoubtedly to use and then blame on Putin, because the novochuk ploy has worked so well and has established a non-existent slice of “reality.”
I would suggest to Russia that to really win their freedom and security long term–over the next few generations–they are going to have to pound the American war machine into the ground–possibly demanding an unconditional surrender, because otherwise this “Uncle Schmuel” of whom you speak will simply retreat west, regroup and continue to counterattack forever. It has to be an ignominious route like the last days of Saigon or Kabul. Is Russia capable of inflicting so much pain and death for such an extended period of time, till long after the outcome should be crystal clear to all but delusional zealots or war criminals intent on evading justice?
Crazed minds are not prone to be logical and willing to stop the killing short of madness. What will a bunch of war criminals who’ve already destroyed entire countries like Libya, Iraq, or Syria have to lose but their already worthless lives. They actually come out ahead in cheating justice.
I would speculate that there are a fair number of Americans who wouldn’t be terribly upset if the current “leaders” in Washington were to meet a sudden and inauspicious end; likewise, I suspect many people in Europe wouldn’t terribly miss the unelected “leaders” in Brussels if they happened to disappear from the face of the Earth. Someday there might even be a holiday named after such an event, maybe called “End of the Oligarchs Day”.
What a nice thought, had a fuzzy feeling for a few seconds. Unfortunately we don’t know the faces running the show, so that when we get our hands (and ropes ) around the necks of our bought & paid Representation then they’ll need to squeal to earn remission. The ones who escape the rope should live out the rest of their days at Guantanamo or some penal island/colony like in the good old days when genocide never got reported.
Rope I find far more personable than le guillotine . . . and eco-friendly, in keeping with western policy ambitions.
Dear Andrei and all patrons of this blog,
First, I hope everyone will have a great new year celebration.
Next, over the past 30 days or so there has been a lot of news regarding the Russian Federation engaging Ukrainian and or NATO militarily. Nothing of sort will happen! There will not be any military action at all!
First, the West, at this juncture finds itself in a quandary. NATO understands that the jig is up. This military organisation is a paper tiger. Most members understand that NATO charter is obsolete. Against what entity is NATO protecting its members? The one most members buy energy and other commercial goods?
The propaganda campaign against the Russian aggression has lost its steam. Most populations are sick and tired of flat out lies being fed by the media machine.
So, the US administration and government is finally beginning to understand that their military is extremely limited against any near peer. And, American public will not support any military engagement with the Russians.
This leaves the US with only limited options in containing Russia – sanctions.
Well, the Russians have took full advantage of the sanctions and it is the Europeans that have been economically hurt. Have the sanctions slowed Russia’s development? Yes, especially initially. However, today, the Russians are thriving in just about every economic sectors.
There is still a lot of work to be done, but the progress is undeniable and is accelerating.
So, the US find itself at a crossroads. Do Americans make a deal or is it status quo?
I believe the Americans will play ball. There is more money to be made by leaving the Cold War dogma. The US needs to find trading partners outside the English speaking world and at this time Russia presents a unique opportunity.
Lastly, if it is status quo, there is nothing to gain from conflict. The Russians have all the military advantage in Europe. The project Ukraine will be over in 10 days. Then what? More sanctions? It’s laughable.
So, boys and girls, relax. Grab some bubbly, enjoy new year parties.
We are on the verge of a new era.
……believe the Americans will play ball. There is more money to be made by leaving the Cold War dogma. The US needs to find trading partners outside the English speaking world and at this time Russia presents a unique opportunity……..
Are you talking about the Americans or the thirteenth tribe :)? They are already leading the game where it should go. Migrants are arriving in Europe, and the Russians are being given a chance to finally become the third factor.
The Tribe is involved in all political arenas. However, the tribe still has to contend with the landscape. They understand that there are limits to their aspirations. So they will adjust their policies accordingly. Things in politics aren’t rigid but fluid. Sometimes there’s path of least resistance. Other time there is pushback.
Nothing is black and white ever!
The Russians, Europeans, and Americans play the same game with the same players. Everyone understands their roles.
The world is moving toward a peace dividend. The rest is noise to help MIC make money. That’s not just NATO, but the Russians and Chinese too.
In two to three years worldwide political landscape will be much more balanced.
My question is, in terms of East/West strategy, will the current financial implosion of Turkey be a big factor?
Now that Erdogan’s effort to play the middle has failed, will he turn East?
That would be serious egg in the face for the West and distract from the other pressure points.
Yes, Erdogan is an egomaniac and the Turks conflicts with everyone else are truly legendary, but we are all at a serious turning point in history and it would be a life line for him and BRI would give the Turkish economy some hope.
I believe the West/NATO is openly provoking Russia to act so as to:
– veryify whether they are dealing with a Potemkin village of high tech. weaponry OR the real mackoy;
– testing to learn Russia’s real tactical and logistical responses to learn how to use them against Russia in future encounters.
It seems to me that the famous NATO article 5 is easy to provoke. Russia would have to respond militarily to every combat provocation from the eastern NATO countries. Of course, the USA would automatically join the counterattack immediately without hesitation. I do not see what the optimism of Russian military experts is that there will be no war with NATO. Well it doesn’t depend on the Russians. The Russians must be ready for anything and stop looking at the West as a reasonable entity.
The US and NATO will not renounce their strategic objectives in relation to Russia and China. Your goal is a global empire run by American finance capital. They may even delay Ukraine’s entry into NATO, but they will not renounce the hybrid war to disintegrate Russia, nor economic sanctions, nor increasingly threatening military exercises in the Black and Baltic Seas. Russia urgently needs to resolve the Ukrainian question because it cannot at all times be concerned about NATO exercises, terrorist threats, sabotage. The sooner the Ukrainian issue is resolved, the Transnistria issue will also be resolved. Waiting only makes things worse. The consequences of waiting will have far more perverse effects. Unfortunately. And we hope the lesson is learned. Russia and China are the hope for all of humanity to avoid an American police state backed by the High Techs of information, and a world economy of misery.
Why doesn’t Russia announce…
“Any actions taken by Ukraine against Russia will be considered as having come from the each NATO member, including the United States and the United Kingdon. Russia’s response will be unrestriced including nuclear.”
Likewise any crossing of Russian “red lines”
War in Ukraine: Germany’s pivotal point for Moscow?
The situation in Eastern Europe is increasingly Kafkaesque in the original sense of the term. The “hot” conflict more or less frozen by the application of some principles of the Russian Gibridnaya Voyna (the little green man’s hand) to face a Western hybrid war of increasing and varying intensity is not a potential. conflict likely to lead to a world war but it is already a world war in progress. You have to be naïve to believe that the Ukrainian conflict has not yet started. It began in February 2014 when a colorful revolution overthrew Victor Yanukovich and attacked Russian bases in the Crimean peninsula, recalling some reminiscences – if only by name – of the Crimean War of 1853 – 1856. In defiance of time, the heir to the late Ottoman Empire, Turkey,
NATO’s attempt to invade Donbass after the dramatic destruction of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 (a black series that began with the still unclear disappearance of flight MH370 providing the Kuala Lumpur-Beijing route). The front stabilized after a memorable clash between two opposing hybrid strategies with opposite and asymmetrical principles. For the first time, the historic push of the hybrid and asymmetric strategy with its successive phases developed by the US strategy since the end of the 1980s with its batches of victories perceived as such (collapse of the former Soviet Union, coup d ‘ State in Romania, stratagem which pushed Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait, bloody implosion of the former Yugoslavia, colored revolutions and proxy wars under the guise of the fight against drugs and then of Islamist terrorism) was frontally blocked in Ukraine by another hybrid war strategy with very imprecise outlines and an unknown modus operandi inspired by the Russian military experience in the Levant . The conflict did not end, however, but it was stabilized around an open Ukrainian front.
In spite of its deep strategic culture, the Russia of Vladimir Putin took a long time to perceive the deception inherent behind the concept of NATO’s eastward expansion. The very cunning former Soviet Union Josef Stalin had fatally believed in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Non-Aggression Pact before Germany launched the formidable Operation Barbarossa. Likewise, until the evening of December 25, 1991, Gorbachev believed until the last second that he had saved the world from the constant threat of nuclear confrontation with the only bottle of Cognac that was at hand, before realizing that he had been fooled by attending the self-proclamation of a US victory. Today, Putin’s Russia is beginning to notice that NATO soldiers are stationed in the Baltic countries and that missile batteries are in effective deployment in Poland and Romania before the Ukrainian red line. This situation places de facto the start of any possible war between Russia and NATO in Valdai (Novgorod Oblast) and NATO missiles less than two minutes from Saint-Petersburg. Hence the Russian response based on the development of tactical hypersonic missiles. But the crude military factor is not the deciding factor. Simultaneously with the deployment of military units and the saturation of ELINT circuits, the adversaries of Russia have tried to catalyze within this country the ferments of a colored revolution or of an avatar of the revolution of 1991 (historical examples in Russian history are not lacking in this regard). Operation Navalny was a failure but there is a clear potential for the emergence of other provocateurs given the deterioration of socio-economic conditions induced in part by the forced mimicry of the great COVID comedy but also a financial and monetary war. that only coordination with China had succeeded in mitigating its disastrous effects.
The geostrategic situation is therefore not favorable to Russia in this extremely difficult configuration. Moscow is playing its survival there and the Russian leaders their skins in the literal sense of the term. The Russian assessment of the context is that the United States will not attack Russia directly because it is deeply divided internally and these divisions are reflected at the level of all of its allies. The internal American division has in fact never been so accentuated since the Civil War and Russia would probably have played to aggravate and exploit the fault lines of the American interior while blocking the strategies of Washington in a region as vital as the Middle East or even in Asia. But it remains indubitable that the level of division reached within the American executive is accentuated enough to be perceived as a phenomenon per se. President Joe Biden and current CIA chief executive Williams Burns and Lloyd Austin alike would be opposed to a direct armed confrontation with Russia because they know the risks and the risks are of such magnitude that they allow no adventure, calculated or not, in this sense. Any misperception in this calculation would result not only in the vitrification of much of Europe but the collapse of the real and virtual world economy. Paradoxically, and in a remake of the warlike journey that led to the disastrous war in Iraq, it is civilians who show themselves the most enthusiastic to “hit” the Russian Bear.
One of the strategies Russia could adopt is to dissociate Germany from Washington. A titanic task, but one which could succeed. After all, the dislocation of the Warsaw Pact did not begin neither in Poland, Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia but in East Germany. Moscow tried to neutralize Turkey by sparing its aspirations for power in the Middle East and Africa but Ankara, despite strategic convergences and cultural and even ethnic affinities with Russia, supports Ukraine militarily and continues its partition within of NATO in coordination with Washington while having the utmost contempt for its European allies. The pivot point on which Moscow can act is therefore and once again Germany. The Nordstream2 affair was supposed to act as a catalyst, but the Russians rely less on conservatism than on German pragmatism. It is a constantly blocked movement chess game. The Russians are trying to force the hand of the Germans following a hybrid economic strategy and counting on the rejection of part of the German population from US tutelage.
The red line will soon be reached by NATO. All the protagonists have known this since 2016. The deployment of tactical nuclear missiles by NATO in Poland, Romania and Greece has led Russia to develop and deploy hypersonic nuclear weapons, to strengthen its unconventional arsenal and to develop nuclear weapons. orbital weapons. On the political level, Moscow will try to dissociate Germany from the Atlanticist strategy while singling out the warmongers US of Ukrainian origin and to negotiate a new comprehensive security arrangement with the empire. It will not be an easy task. The extension of NATO to the former Soviet republics is already a reality with regard to the Baltic countries. Part of the Russian establishment, especially the hardline factions, wants to annex Ukraine (Chechen President Ramzane Kadyrov has even expressed himself in this direction) and teach a lesson to an enemy deemed deadly. But the reality is more complex. The game of Go and poker around the immense Russia means that this country will not be able to cope alone with the Atlanticist attempts and it is precisely there that the strategic partnership with China takes on all its importance. On the other hand, Germany needs to understand that even a limited tactical nuclear war in Europe will wipe out all of its future ambitions inside and, more interestingly, outside the Atlanticist straitjacket or the German Constitution of 1949. By yet another irony of fate, the development of the standoff between Moscow and Washington at the end of 2021 could completely unexpectedly lead to a new Germany, provided that it eventually escapes destruction. This German resurgence is now calculated on the Russian side as a parameter with which we must both monitor and use as a disruptive counterweight within a military alliance which tends to replace an empire and whose extension to the East in Eurasia threatens the survival of Russia.
It seems as the Merkle faction of the German Gov’t is ready and is supports this option. But, the British/Americans Deep State will put up a tenacious fight against this option.
Will the American occupied Army in Germany take control of the German Gov’t to prohibit this option. And, if so what will the Russians do. Will the Germans turn against American military occupation resisting any take over. How, will a powerful Merkel play this out.
Both Russian and American want German industrial prowess while the Brits want to keep German down for ever.
There will be a war, whether intentional or as a result of a chance confrontation. Look at western politicians (& military) – the worst in its history. Arrogant, venal, corrupt, clueless, woke, unbelievably ignorant & utterly contemptible. People like Johnson, Macron, Stoltenberg, Creepy Joe, Blinken, Truss, Rutte, Milley, Austin, Carter, Stirrup, & scores of others like them. All working together these people are not capable of running a whelk stall. They believe reality is whatever they wish it to be. They are not capable of looking at any long term consequences. The late J. McCains expectation was for Russia to collapse straight away as soon as the sanctions proclamation was given. His expressions of horror & outrage that there was still electricity in Russia after that. They are like an infants school class high on crack cocaine. May the Almighty preserve us.
But I suppose if push comes to shove, well just have to unleash Liz Truss in her little tank.
It is always the Americans but never the real Elephant in the room being discussed by analysts – that is the British who have and continue to play a much more active “on the ground” role than the Americans.
Perhaps the lack of awareness of the British Elephant is due to lack of awareness of the great historical importance that Crimea has to the British.
Over the Christmas period I had drinks with several of my military associates whilst surrounded by artifacts from the British Crimean War. Indeed one Officer was drinking whilst sat astride what is known as “The Ruskie Gun” – a substantial cannon mounted on a reproduction frame outside the Officers Mess – just one of many “Crimean War Trophy Guns” which adorn British Army barracks and Royal Navy Facilities.
In fact so important was Crimea to the British that even to this day there are still monuments to the British dead in that war throughout the country and there are many “Russian Trophy Guns” and other relics of the Tsars Army and Black Sea Fleet mounted and framed at many British Town Halls and even on plinths in public squares – all over the country.
Remains of 19th century Russian flags, uniforms, badges and other artifacts are common even in mess halls, with ball and shot “taken from Sevastospol c.1855” being almost ubiquitous.
I know not a single Naval Officer who is not aware of the “Treaty of Paris of 1856” (which banned Russia from sailing any warship into the Black Sea amongst other things).
Intererestingly it was the combined British and Turkish (then Ottoman) effort with the help of France which pushed the Russians out of Crimea and out of the Black Sea (history sure as heck rhymes does it not).
In England the Crimean War was (is) no small thing – something not understood outside the British services it seems.
Even today the Crimean Nurse “Florence Nightingale” was chosen by the Government to supply her name to the British Covid response emergency field hospitals called “Nightingales”.
Even today any hat that can be pulled down over the face or wrapped around the face leaving just the eyes exposed is called a “Balaclava” after the improvised cloth and wool coverings used by British Sailors and Soldiers to protect themselves from the cold during the battle of Balaclava during the crimean war. Bet you didnt know that such was the outcry in England that Soldiers and Sailors were freezing that there was a “national effort” to knit wool “Balaclavas” and send them to British forces in Crimea.
Even today most major British Galleries and even some large libraries will have on display at least a large oil painting or several watercolours depicting battle scenes from the Crimean War. There are even a few at Naval bases.
Even today the ill fated “Charge of the Light Brigade” in Crimea is used a colloquialism for a poorly planned and executed attack – ie “if we sent the tanks against that forrest it would be like the charge of the Light Brigade”. Every British Officer knows about this and many other Crimean battles / incidents too. – the Crimean War is still taught history at Sandhurst and elsewhere.
There is a Scottish Regiment decended from the Highlanders who faught in Crimea that still sing about the Crimean War as part of their history when “Heroic Men of Foot” faught against Russian Cavarly and stood aginst Russian cannon and held “a thin red line” against superior forces.
After the British were victorious and returned to England the Queen herself held a public ceromony in London where many men of arms were awarded medals including some even the “Victoria Cross” – the highest possible military medal. It was a national event.
There are still wrecks of British ships in the Black Sea and there are records of sailors being lost in battles in Sea of Azov.
The Prime Minister Lord Palmerston signed the little known “Palmerston Plan” which called Russia “a threat to Europe” and called for outlaying nations such as Sweden and Norway (history rhymes again does it not) to join Britain, France, and Prussia (sounds like an embryonic Nato does it not) and stand against the russian threat.
After Russia was defeated in Crimea (an almost phyricc victory for the british who were bludgeoned) the Treaty of Paris of 1856 reorganised the Black Sea powers and returned Crimea to Russia – for as long they did not rebuild the Black Sea fleet or threaten the Ottomens.
As far as the British are concerned the Treaty of Paris of 1856 is still a “live” Treaty – having never been formally resinded / cancelled / otherwise torn up by the British.
The British today are more active in Ukraine than the US (who simply bankroll the nato operation and provide the expensive overwatch and diplomancy) as any detailed look at British military operations and civillian commercial infrasture contract signing (including supply of warships, missile systems, and building of ports and airfields) will reveal.
As several British Politicians and Senior Officers have said – they will support Ukraine to face and defeat Russian Agression and return Ukraines terroritorial integrety whist preparing Ukraine for “integration” (as opposed to being a “member” of) into NATO.
The Black Sea and Crimea are unfinished business for many in the British military, and likewise for many in Turkey who look towards correcting the mistakes of the past (and are now yet again facing the Russians in both Ukraine by flying drones for Ukis, and supporting the head-choppers whereever the Russians turn up in the south – Syria, Libya, Armenia, etc).
I have seen a lot of the new systems the British are fielding and the US are testing and they are a significant threat to Russia, China and world peace in general. The Russians obviously know this and so do the Chinese (and Iranians who the Anglo-Persian oil decendents have not forgotten about).
Russia and China (and Iran) see war coming very soon – a war which will not stay in Ukraine/Taiwan/Iran when it starts – it will go global quite quickly, and is likely to begin just before / just at the collapse of the war machine funding Petro-Dollar.
Just my observations as an ex Grade 7 Civil Service “Administrator” – so make of them as you wish.
Happy New Year.
That’s all very well, but reliving past glories and empires lost is all that’s left. In 30 years all the paraphernalia will be burned in landfill.
The head of British Armed Forces has already planned his escape route in the event that matters on the Ukrainian border should turn kinetic, Poland being his preferred run for the hills escape route.
Look, you’ve witnessed the fiasco of the withdrawal in Afghanistan where these NATO soldiers were using Militias to protect their behind while firing up the plane engines. The Polish border might not be the best idea as the wooden top Poles will cause traffic delays in their own flight.
That’s all they know. They quarrel others, they find a scholarship holder who brings them information. He fulfills their demands in peace. He sets up locators in war. But this is it. Earlier wars were fought by Indians, Australians, Africans, etc. The English commanded. Do you think that an Englishman will die for Ukraine :)? Or Poland and Lithuania :))?
Yes, “Little Britian” and romanticising the good olde empire days.
Last time I looked on world map, the Black Sea was a long row from the Thames regatta.
The hysterical couple of weeks after the Afghan “Yank & Run” (well, fly) in the Hallowed Halls of Assange Persecuting London Town spoke volumes to those who measure the “end of system” by way of anticipated grief (Kubler-Ross style). Like rotten teeth crumbling on Xams day, it will be the little things like the Fauklins, and Gibraltar, and Singapore, and once Betty Blue (the German monarch) goes to meet her “Virus 2.0” prince in the next world then Australia and NZ. Sad really, since 5-6 generations ago my line came from those fair parts. But the rot has set in — what moral ground do ye stand on now? Ibin Khaldun and macro-history cycles sets it out well.
Nonetheless, I read your post with interest. However, I also found “No, winter DIDN’T destroy Napoleon’s army in 1812” (History Dec 21 2021, Georgy Manaev) to also be informative — especially in regard to the self-serving worldview history-bubble you describe compared with that which the rest of the world understands.
My guess is, within a very short decade you lot will have lost Norther Ireland, and the Scots will be sawing through the chains that keep them from a European future. Good luck “Air Strip One” … you lot of malcontents are going to need it once the Russian-German-China-(plus Iran) aliance is cemented in place.
does the approaching Winter Olympics hosted by China play a role in the calculations of real war in Europe?
I am not facetious, just want to hear other opinion.
This might be more of a settling of scores between the global elites and the American ones. Something happened on the way from Baghdad to Tehran that created a split between the Deep State and the Freemasonic transnationals. There’s no earthly reason why RT is on satellite TV, except that maybe…
I’d also like to know where Russia got the missing pieces to produce their new super-weapons. They had the basic science for decades, but couldn’t make functional weapons out of it until…
The missing pieces were just perceived menaces and money proper.
Thanks. ‘Lets go Shoigu’! I hope Russia goes all the way and destroys all the ‘power centers’ (parliaments and bank high rises in city centres) in the West, along with all the military bases…the conspiring elite need a 300 year lesson.
WASHINGTON, December 28. /TASS/. Russia and the US will hold talks on the situation around Ukraine, security in Europe and arms control on January 10, AFP reported Monday citing the White House National Security Council spokesman.
According to the spokesman, a Russia-NATO Council meeting may take place on January 12, while Russia and OSCE representatives may meet on January 13.
Neither the White House nor the Department of State provided an immediate commentary for TASS.
Earlier on Monday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Sergey Lavrov stated that the main round of the Russia-US talks on security will take place immediately after the New Year holidays. The Minister noted that the timeline of the talks is important for Moscow, adding that delaying them is unacceptable despite Moscow setting now ultimatums on this issue. The Minister also underscored that Washington is the main negotiator on the issue of security guarantees.
Even if Biden and/or other elements of the deep state want to talk with Putin, domestic politics will stop it. It was Congress that forced Trump into implementing sanctions on Russia. Does not matter how many revelations Durham reveals that Russiagate was a hoax, five years of hysterical anti-Russian propaganda has seeped into the American psyche and made political discourse toxic even on matters outside Russia. 50% of Americans now support sending troops to defend Ukraine. A majority of Biden’s party still believes the Russians changed actual vote tallies to elect Trump. There is nothing to be lost politically for lawmakers and the mass media to chest pound America into an ugly conflict if the fool Zelensky decides to attack the break away republics.
Half of Americans Support Use of US Troops in Defense of Ukraine
It’s an all too common trick in black propaganda to release some crooked polls. What is there about the Chicago Council that would make their poll credible ? Outside of a handful of activists, I don’t even know any Americans who could find the Ukraine on a map.
Who really controls The West? It is a valid question. It’s increasingly apparent that our ‘free liberal democracies’ are to a great extent a sham.
The documentary “Monopoly” https://forbiddenknowledgetv.net/monopoly-who-owns-the-world-documentary-by-tim-gielen/ backs up other research (e.g. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0025995 ) that a supranational corporatocracy are the real rulers of The West.
You’ve asked for references, there’s hundreds in this: http://theoctopusofglobalcontrol.com/
Saker (at least in the past) has baulked at the full conspiracy ideas (as most people do or at least used to – a million Australians protesting on our streets had thousands of signs about this globalist WEF/NWO ‘Great Reset’ as we see our democracy and freedom evaporate). These big conspiracy ideas explain the durability and power of Saker’s concept of the ‘Anglo-Zionist Empire’ which is the more visible militaristic aspect of this Globalist Corporatocracy.
Yanis Varoufakis discovered the tentacles of the octopus ran the EU, via the ‘Eurogroup’ of financial elites that he as Greek finance minister had to meet with along with all other EU FMs – but no minutes were kept, no notes or phones or electronic devices or even questions permitted. They were simply told what was happening and what to do. Varoufakis had the balls to report what was only ‘conspiracy theory’ up until then.
Klaus Schwab (“The pandemic is a great opportunity to implement the ‘Great Reset’ so you will own nothing but be happy” on universal basic income as the corrupt fiat Ponzi scheme is destroyed by controlled implosion ushering in a new digital currency and universal surveillance and social credit score for the masses with as Klaus says “the merger of human physical and digital identity”) is the nearest thing to the Führer these days. And Putin, Lavrov & Shoigu know it.
The question for me is – where does the patriotic Western military stand? How divided are our military between sycophantic greedy generals & ignorant brainwashed personnel on the one hand and true Patriots and sophisticated military intelligence officers who respect their oaths to constitutions and not to puppet leaders of a corporate oligarchy of madmen and women (think Hillary)?
Officers who see in Putin, Lavrov & Shoigu – the kind of patriotic sovereigntist leaders they wish we had. Who might just want to see Russia give Globalist controlled neo-Nazi Ukraine (and the Octopus itself) a bloody nose and let Russia liberate all of Novorossiya?
Imagine New York people getting million leaflets of following kind over their heads:
“During past decades American people are responsible for wars in Iraq, Lybia, Afagistan, … and supported wars or regime changes in Palestine, Ukraine, Syria, Iran (1953 – 1979), Iraq-Iran (1980-1988), Chile (1973), … with result of millions dead with pretexts of installing democracy or, in many cases, destroying democracy.
This leaflet is a symbolic twin of the #1343756 person died in these wars. People in Russia do not want to become such twins in your democide or accident war. Would you? If you don’t, join the talk.”
Means of delivery? They are quite old in practice: when military guard detects an intruder, the guard tries 3 steps: 1) “Stand by, who is coming?”, 2) shoot in the air, 3) shoot the intruder. The first 2 steps are public relations. Blowing up warheads from single ICBM loaded with leaflets instead of nukes would be a step 2. ( Delivered with due public warning, aka by Iran at 8 January 2020. )
PS: yes, sending even single ICBM is a risk. But it is a controlled risk. In contrary, current risks of accidental conflict are uncontrolled. And any way, public unawareness and irresponsibility is what causes all the risks and existence of nuclear weapons.
PS: yes subject of talks can be Ukraine, but subject of concern is a nuclear risk. So message, must go to the point.
PS: this is quite inept to refer to “verbal agreement” “no inch further”. It does not matter was there agreement said or not. It is advancing behavior which cases an alarm. If neighbors over street point guns to one’s house, this does not matter did they have agreement before or not nor did they even talked at all.
The step 1, the “ultimatum” is in essence a public relation and it is meaningless to keep negotiations private. Presidents do not talk to each other, they talk to other country.
PS: It must be noted that “delivery” even single leaflet in a way described above is illegal and unacceptable because it violates sovereign state airspace. It may be reasonable only in response to already happened violation, like it was when US killed foreign top diplomat on foreign soil, Qasem Soleimani. NATO’s HMS Defender violated Russian marine border on 23 June 2021, but this is not-clear will Russian government consider such violation significant.
“…As they say in Russia “those who will not listen to Lavrov will have to deal with Shoigu“. Even Lavrov himself seems to agree…”
Reluctantly agree? :-)
I don’t think this is a “good cop/bad cop” deal, it is more of a one-two punch. Lavrov has prepared the conditions for Shoigu to shoot, if necessary. Once the shooting stops, if it happens, Lavrov will pick up the pieces and put it all nicely for everyone to agree. Sign below, please…an offer you can’t refuse.
Putin already said he will act on options presented to him by the military, and he sounded guardedly optimistic during the annual presser. However, it is looking more and more possible that if Russia doesn’t get the guarantees it needs to break the current imbalance of forces, it will walk on Banderastan. Why? To set the tone of what will be coming if the “Western partners” drag their feet. How deep they will go into Banderastan, and with what objective, only the Russians know.
It is completely understandable the Russian people are tired. This is a giant step into a new international role for Russia, and however it gets resolved, we are not going back to the status quo ante. China and Iran are anxiously watching, awaiting for the results. It has been amply demonstrated the Russians are not looking for war, but they are out to redefine the current balance of forces, by hook or by crook. Putin learned the hard lessons gained from WWII. No more surprises, no more wars on Russian territory.
There is another factor to take into account, and that is General Winter. Eurostan is facing a deep energy crisis, Germany’s gas reserves, last time I checked (about a week ago), were down to 60%. Same with other European neighbors, plus the onslaught from Omicron is devastating. One in every ten British is already infected. Wonder if the energy crisis plus Omicron compounded for the British announcement to withdraw from Ukraine. Russia has no problems staying warm, Eurostan does. This could be a powerful factor in a push for a rational and timely response, Eurostan could offer some concessions Russia may consider a good beginning, they will get Russian gas to get through the winter, avoiding war and creating a platform to seriously discuss a geopolitical realignment.
As always, let’s hope for the best…
Andrei you are a voice of reason. By the way I loved your vid with Roger Waters and Sheik Imran Hosein. Roger Waters seems like a very cool and caring guy. Sheik Imran seems like a wonderful person. I enjoy listening to him.
“those who will not listen to Lavrov will have to deal with Shoigu“.
Very powerful message.
The US and European NATO countries had best let Russia take control of the situation in Ukraine as they see fit. Russia does not need permission and seems intent to prove it if provoked enough. The Ukraine is Russian.
– Gentle when stroked, fierce when provoked –
So sorry for the delay but here is my partial prediction: Bear with me for a moment please.(pun intended) In two weeks the people of LDNR declare themselves and their land to be a sovereign nation: The Republic of Donbass. Why would they do such a thing? Why not?
Some may say this move will bring the wrath of the Ukraine military upon them. I say: “So what else is new?” The Ukraine military has been brutalizing these people for years. So that is a nonissue. The Ukraine military is going to brutalize the people of LDNR whether they proclaim sovereignty or not.
Why not just join Russia, like Crimea did? The people of LDNR asked for that and Russia refused. That dog doesn’t hunt so forget it.
So why bother claiming themselves to be a sovereign nation? The trick is it changes the geopolitical perspective.
I think it is all about money and power. The US wants two things out of this – 1) More control over Europe who they see as threatening some degree of independence and 2) To stop NordStream 1&2, replace Russian gas and oil with American gas and oil. They don’t really care about Russia. They know they can’t beat Russia, so they will use Russia for their own ends – re-establishing and strengthening power and control over Europe and dominating European energy markets.
That is basically the key to the empire’s stance towards the EU-Russia relations. The moment Russia and the EU strengthen their economic ties and then possibly also rejuvenate cultural and other exchange programs, the narrative of the evil Russians will crumble and soon afterwards the US presence in the EU becomes obsolete and the true face of the emperor will be visible for all. That of greed, lust for power and death.
So they throw every wrench available, from supporting russophobic groups and opinions in the former Pact and Soviet states, their toy of “sanctions” (economic warfare) to outright arming the neonazis in UKR.
The can’t live with the prospect of becoming a failed empire (like all which come before). And I believe that the US elites are scared of the possible disclosure of their absolutely horrendous pile of corpses in the basement.
(Be Careful: Automatic translation, sorry)
Greetings from Spain, to all commentators.
I am no expert but I read and think at my own risk. Here are a few brushstrokes…
Although I liked Mr. Martyanov’s books very much, and he describes the delirium of the West very well, I should read Nietzsche more thoroughly to understand the West better: I mean this: “facts” are made by someone, by something, for something, with an interest, “facts” do not speak for themselves, etc etc. What do I mean? Hypersonic missiles are “real” and upset the balances, but hypersonic missiles do not change the underlying problem at all: Veloziferisch (neologism invented by Goethe, Luciferian speed as a diagnosis of modernity). Where does this Luciferian speed lead us to?
This is my take on the current issue: while the West has been partying since 1989 celebrating its “victory”, Russia has been working with an eye on the long term.
I am 100% sure that there is no move on the board that has not been considered by Russia. Without any doubt Russia has tied up all the loose ends. There are going to be tectonic shifts, that’s for sure. But if the West is in the abyss, in a dead end, what does this mean for the world, also for Russia, beyond the here and now? Or do they believe in Russia that one day they will not have their own Lückenwut (rage of emptiness)? For example I think of the movie “Leviathan” by a Russian director whose name I can’t remember. Excuse me, but what is the truth there? We could say, Russia has a BETTER INTERPRETATION, and as power is a better interpretation, a better narrative, the thing goes on…. but until when? Because Russia talks about its spiritual strength while at the same time developing very material hypersonic weapons. Excuse me, but there is a subject to ask fundamental questions that concern the whole biosphere.
It could be that the tectonic shift that is not being talked about is that humanity (or at least the West) is reaching the dead end and unconsciously seeking to commit suicide.
Russia has a metaphysical offer based on “realism” but how long can it last? What political philosophy offer does Russia have? The “healthy conservatism”? But what can stop that “Veloziferisch”? I do not underestimate Russia’s spiritual and material strength, but in the end they may find their dead end too. Mr. Martyanov already points it out without perhaps realizing the scope of his words: people always want more and more…. (more and more, more and more, more and more). This is where Russian spirituality will find its measure.
Moreover, it is not the West that is at the crossroads; it is men, the whole of humanity that is at the crossroads of the possibility of its obsolescence.
In the meantime, will Russia save the West once again from its wandering, from its fall back into inertness, as Sartre said?
But until when will Russia be able to stop the sign of the times, this “Veloziferisch”? Sometimes I think of Tolstoy and sometimes I think of mathematics. What is the meaning of calculation? What is the deep meaning of calculation, of foresight, of anticipation, of control… of “objectivity”? This is where I think that hypersonic weapons are carriers of a metaphysics that even the creators themselves do not understand. They guarantee a balance, that’s true. They curb the excessive ambitions of a certain class of psychopaths of which we have plenty in the West. But the disintegration of which Mr. Martyanov speaks is deeper than he thinks and is not only a question of the United States. Hypocrisy has no borders, that is what, in my humble opinion, the most perceptive of observers smell. My hope is that the best from all sides will prevail. But I have great doubts based on history, and you know that history is the history of war. The pains of childbirth…
I wish you all the best.
Fraternity among the peoples of the world.
“This is my take on the current issue: while the West has been partying since 1989 celebrating its “victory”, Russia has been working with an eye on the long term.”
Perhaps remembering Mr. Schroedinger’s cat may aid perspective.
The coercive relations self-described as “The United States of America”, known by some as a direction “The West”, has been celebrating/partying since 1969 after the Tet offensive, including in 1971 in respect of the chutzpah of turning gold into paper, whilst from 1969 onwards an increasing sum of Russians and their associates have been cooperating in creating and implementing long term lateral strategies.
By 1969 some within “The United States of America” and some Russians in “The Soviet Union” and their associates understood that “The United States of America” and “The Soviet Union” were mutually dependent for their sustainability, Messrs. Mearsheimer and Mr. Cohen calling this convergence, whilst Mr. Paul Craig Roberts challenged this by his 1971 book “Alienation and the Soviet economy” University of New Mexico Press refers, reprinted by Holmes and Meier Publishers , on behalf of “The Independent Institute” in 1990 ISBN 0-8419-1247-5 refers, and used to inform debate and uincorporated into copy book for “colour revolutions” in the former Soviet Union from 1992 onwards. .
In cooperation in creating and implementing long term lateral strategies, an increasing sum of Russians understood that Mr. Mearsheimer’s and Mr. Cohen’s observations were not in contradiction
to Mr. Paul Craig Roberts’ observations but were complimentary, Mr. Paul Craig Roberts observation not being restricted to “…the Soviet economy”..
However until 1990, the coercive relations self-described as “The United States of America” known by some as a direction “The West”, assigned primacy to Mr. Mearsheimer’s and Mr. Cohen’s observations to such a degree that in 1990 the President of “The United States of America” and Mrs. Thatcher, a prime minister/evangeliser of “The United States of America” predicated on the March 1943 discussions of the Imperial General Staff meeting with allies and subsequent, wrote to their associates in Lithuania and elsewhere with copies to “Moscow”, instructing their associates to go easy on Mr. Gorbachev and his associates.
Mr. Gorbachev and his associates in furtherance of their shared illusions of their significance and beliefs in convergence/emulation/understanding, in response to Lithuanian intransigence in confidential status negotiations held at Zonikai airbase near Siauliai in Lithuania arranged for “Soviet forces” to use weapons to disperse a “demonstration/seige” at/of the Television station in Vilnius, catalysing the dance of all fall down.
Consequently the alienation increased and accelerated throughout.
Some attempted a coup to replace Mr. Gorbachev, “The Soviet Union” was dissolved, Lithuania gained “independence” along with elsewhere, “The United States of America” attempted contradictory self-defeating colour revolutions in Russia, initially in the hope of reproducing former relations with “The Soviet Union”, whilst an increasing sum of some Russians and their associates started to refer to “The United States of America” as “partners” in recognition of their complicity/cooperation in creating and implementing long term lateral strategies
of an increasing sum of some Russians and their associates.
“But I have great doubts based on history, and you know that history is the history of war. “
Not all rely on precedents to the same degree or for the same purposes.
Not all perceive/evaluate doubt the same.
Not all perceive/define “war” the same.
Not all attempt to conflate interpreting/writing history with making history.
Not all understand that making history does not require constant “active participation”.
whilst some understand that neither omniscience nor perfection are options in interactive processes.
The Russians know that their military superiority is now at its zenith. Not only technically but also on the ground the Anglo-Zionist forces are over deployed, weak, outnumbered and without capable air defense. The diplomatic ultimatum having been ignored ,not totally sure we’ll see in the next few weeks. The Russians want security on the western flank, so that’s where they must act to force the withdrawal of the “technicals” that threaten them.
The Poles have a choice between abandoning their national values to the EU or making a deal with the Russians. They are very stupid for sure. But the Russians may have a card to play, who knows?
So many possibilities that making predictions is not reasonable. Will kinetic actions have a place? Thats my biggest question??
4:45am Washington time
12:45pm Moscow time
Some aerial“action” close very close to Simferopol.
An unidentified something is playing games with an Ilyushin Il-114LL
Someone is poking the Bear.
Unprecedented: #USAF Boeing E-8C JSTARS REDEYE6/01-2005 replaces RC-135V Rivet Joint HOMER19/63-9792 over eastern Ukraine.
HOMER19 returns home to Souda Bay.
11:55 PM · Dec 27, 2021
> can you explain for dummies
>>Apparently for the first time, US E-8C airborne battle management & surveillance aircraft is conducting a mission over Ukraine, while USAF’s RC-135V reconnaissance aircraft was there for the second time in history (basing on open data).
> so we could interpret that as a clear sign of escalation in the US focus on this matter, right?
The Simferopol buzzard landed at
Catania Fontanarossa Airport Italy at 7:20am Washington time
Interesting Also landing at same time:
(This seemed to have originated from the Med Sea….off the coast of Italy Taken Off from a carrier perhaps??)
United States – US Air Force (USAF)
Lockheed C130J Hercules
Lockheed C130J Hercules
The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group is in the Mediterranean Sea …..so.
Lol the Brits are having a poke now.
Just arriving around Simferopol 8am Washington time and 1pm London time
Royal Air Force
Boeing RC-135 Reconnaissance Aircraft
The aircraft is derived from its predecessor the C-135 Stratolifter and can execute intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations.
The RC-135 has 14 variants ……
On 19 March 2010, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) procured three RC-135W Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft along with the associated ground systems to execute signal intelligence missions for the RAF. Deliveries began in November 2013 and completed in June 2017. The aircraft became fully operational in February 2018
The RC-135V/W Rivet Joint, also called Airseeker, is an advance version fitted with a sensor suite for tracking and identifying geo-locate signals within the electromagnetic spectrum. The maximum airspeed of the aircraft is 870km/h. The range and service ceiling of RC-135W is 6,500km and 39,000ft, respectively.
Onboard electro-optic sensors fitted in the aircraft trace geo-located signals within the electromagnetic spectrum and transfer the captured data to operators through secure satellite communication data link.
So. That’s what’s flying around Sevastopol this afternoon Crimea time
Auslander can give them a wave 👏👏👏
So from lurking in threads at sites that I will not link to, I have this:
>1 The E-8C collected location data on locations of Russian equipment, then the RC-135 mopped up and collected Signals Intelligence to determine radio frequencies and radar wavelength earlier today.
>2 The US sent two of their best battlefield spy planes over Ukraine today to collect data and give it to Ukraine, so it’s a bit more serious.
I don’t underground why the Americans do not even try to free themselves by the rule of the Jew controlled political class they have. Jews cause huge problems wherever they are. Cicero told they caused social and political turmoil in Republican Rome and this before the destruction of Jerusalem.
Get rid of this God’s scourge and peace will flourish.
You will never convince a jew that he is not the chosen one.
Perhaps it doesn’t pay to die could be a strategy to equalize the playing field.
Because Americans don’t realize they are slaves, a majority anyway. The take over by the Bolsheviks really started in earnest in 1913 with the signing of the Federal Reserve Act by Woodrow Wilson, our sovereignty was given to the Rothchild banking mafia headquartered in London. Progressively and incrementally the brain washing, mind control what ever you want to call it started. Like a cancer they infested and gained control of the education system, government, banks, religion and the courts and by 1963 it was for all intents and purposes complete. It was completed in the 90’s when Bill Clinton signed away the Glass-Steagle Act. This act signed by FDR had taken the commercial banks from the Federal Reserve and placed them back into the hands of private individuals, this was the final act of total domination.
The American people basically worship Jews especially pseudo Christians and to a certain extant the Western Europeans. From the movies to the pulpit the indoctrination, lies and brain washing was nonstop creating a slave society where we the American people are ready to die for Israel to save the poor Jews, we can’t let another Holocaust happen and there is no way to penetrate the wall of lies, I have ceased trying. There are two kinds of slavery, physical slavery with a chain around your neck and mental slavery with a chain around your brain. This latter form is more insidious, vile and evil because you never realize you are a slave.
“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.” – Johann von Goethe
If Russia reincorporates the Baltics that would be sufficient to invalidate NATO and their attempts to surround and destroy Russia. This would make it no longer attractive to puppet regimes and so would be its death-knell. It would permanently cripple this anglo tool.
Regarding Ukraine, they ought to do only surgical strikes targeting fascist battalions and homelands within Ukraine. Those fascists have no loyalty to the Russian spirit. “Ukrainans” generally, on the other hand, are really Russians named after the region they are based in, so too for the Byelorussians. They are the same people.
The “ukranians” will, as before, rally together with the rest to the fatherland’s cause again in the face of agression, this time permanently disabling the agressors if they dare to resist. However, Russia needs to spread this appeal widely so that everybody there hears of it.
The only option the anglosphere has to block such a re-incorporation of the baltics itself, which is an attack on Russia, would result in an attack on the anglo homelands (US, UK, Canada, Australia, NZ) and the destruction of their bases abroad. This they would not risk.
The Russikies don’t have to worry about sanctions because they’ve got a full-spectrum superpower (and the world’s future hyperpower) backing them up. China’s economy is already the largest in the world in PPP terms. They produce everything any country could need.
I am confident that Putin will recreate the proud and powerful nation that Russia was till the traitors Gorbachev and Yeltzin had a go at “leading” this great nation. Hopefully he will leave in place a resilient system that has the ability to constantly change with the times in small continuous steps. Such a sytem will guarantee permanence and continuity rather than the regular upheavals we’ve seen every 70 years or so in Russia’s recent history, which cause so much trouble (to put it mildly) for the Russian people. This system will also be a guarantee of the freedom of humanity as it was in the recent past; this remains its greatest love-point for people outside Russia.
I think he will go down in Russian history as the greatest leader to date, who achieved everything virtually bloodlesly.
God bless the Russia!
Any news of the flying Poseidon?
“The biggest risk now is that the US Americans will try to talk their way out and just let the clock run down without ever giving a clear answer to the Russians. ”
To some that is not the biggest risk, but a multi-facetted source of interactive opportunities, hence:
“For us, either way is fine,” rendered correctly as “For us, all ways are fine”.
“This entire topic has become a huge abscess in the mind of many..”
A component part of why “The United States of America” gained an albatross, whilst The Russian Federation gained a new member.
I don’t quite find it reasonable that saker and some other russian commentator excluded a direct military intervention by Russia but the ultimatums always include military threats. In this case, either destruction of Ukrainian military and/or invasion of eastern Ukraine perhaps making the river Dnieper the new border between Ukraine and Russia
“I don’t quite find it reasonable that saker and some other russian commentator excluded a direct military intervention by Russia but the ultimatums always include military threats.”
We the people hold these truths to be self-evident renders some to believe that they should know and invent interpretations in attempts to avoid the angst/insecurity of not knowing, including that what they don’t know is unreasonable sometimes rendered as “naive”, and/or unrealistic, not-in-the-playbook-it-shouldn’t-be -allowedness, its-so-unfair, etc, etc, thereby emulating the edited wide-screen version of Mr. Rove’s observation:
We interact with others who interpret our interactions
Whilst they are interpreting our interactions
We interact with outhers who interpret our interactions
including, but not limited to, interpreting notices of intent as ultimata since we the people hold these truths to be self-evident encourages dancing around mulberry bushes into enmazement and all-fall-downness.
Saker posted chemical agents are botulinum toxin and dibenzoxazepine. Both are in a sense “dual use”. I am wondering if the agents are only two.
In 1952 the “negotiations” coincided with germ-war against NK. In Vietnam “negotiations” coincided with massive bombing.
Old dog, old trick.
Dear, Saker, some type of conflagration is on its way. The Anglo-Zionist puppeteers of all things “democratically elected” in the West need it in order to preserve some exchange value to their “printed” fortunes under the guise of three denominations: The US Dollar, UK Pound, the Euro. The day Russia stops selling its energy in Dollars will be the beginning of the end of all financial & monetary systems that those fiat reserve currencies control. As long as the US Dollar holds its actual status, they will not leave Russia alone.
I@ Anna ‘s comment Dec 27 th 4;57 pm , I concur with Anna comment what everyone is missing is that instead
of having war with countries we need to eliiminated the families that control the world ,Russia should point their
missiels at them.
Very good advice Anna
Amoral West is aggravating the situation in Ukraine through supply of lethal weapons, training, propganda and name it to strike Russia proper. It appears that the Russian patience is running thin. Expect some surgical strikes inside Ukraine followed by defanging of the Nazis’s military. That turns Ukraine into at least four countries.
As to the West’s reaction, expect a hot air, sanctions and pants down. The West has neither the means nor the capacity to confront Russia. Russia will write the terms in Europe and that seems coming soon. Russia is once again going to save the world from this insane cabal called the War Party.
Always the same group of people who comment on this site seem to be very ignorant of history but also of the social and political mechanisms that shape the world. The comment section seems to have only one purpose, the undue glorification of Russia for there is no real discussion or novel thoughts.
Reading a few articles, one would think that some kind of historically unprecedented struggle between good Russia and bad US with most of the world aligned with US and the West (as regularly seen in the UN), is incessantly continuing. And yet there is nothing further from the truth because the current struggle is not unprecedented at all but it is, for all intents and purposes, completely in line with historical standards. Simply, it is a form of power struggle.
It is not US or the West that brought the short-lived Russian imperial superpower, known as the USSR, to its knees, but it was brought down by its own non-sufficiently intelligent and inadequately educated political leaders. Just look what two such individuals (Gorbachev and Yeltsin) were able to do. There is no doubt at all that Putin will be just as unfavourably judged by history for almost all of eastern Europe as well as the Russian historical heartlands were taken over under his watch.
While it is true that the Russian opponents want to weaken it as much as possible in order to eliminate a possible contender, yet the internal historical, socioeconomic and political processes are at work here. Russia is on decline for its own reasons, therefore, blaming the West for all its shortcomings is simply dishonest. As it is now obvious Russia was never meant to be a superpower in the first place, it was “only” meant to be a great power. Every historical superpower was unique. So, just for a while, the communist Soviet Russia for the reasons of historical singularity of its ideology and political system was also unique. Now, Russia is back to square one.
Russia will inevitably continue to slide for the said processes are chiefly internal and are still in full swing. The West is just trying to “help out”. So, the survival of Russia is non-dependent of the survival of the US for nothing can save it from itself. No significant social or political contradictions in the post-Soviet Russia have been resolved so far. All the issues seem to have been swept under the rug. Recently, this year, for the first time the Russian officialdom touched upon, heretofore an anathema, and dared to mildly criticize Yeltsin and his era.
The further fragmentation of Russia seems inevitable as we already hear voices that it must further to “disburden” itself of the Muslim republics in the Caucasus. It will, once more, be just the beginning of a new phase. It looks like it has finally dawned on the Russian leadership that edifices which have been built for centuries can incompetently and negligently be torn down in matter of only a few months or years. Unfortunately for Russia there will be no “building back better”. In this sense the Russian “ultimatum”, which will inevitably be ignored and disparaged, is of no importance to anyone but the Russians who earnestly keep trying to think of themselves as the people who still “call shots” in the world that has utterly overrun them.
I don’t think you understand the predicament that you are in. You wrote: “ with most of the world aligned with US and the West (as regularly seen in the UN),”
but the truth is: “UN General Assembly, Resolution A/RES/76/149
Here is the voting record: https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3951466?ln=en Russia was one of the authors of the resolution, if not the main one, and voted for it.“
I got news for you, your world is going to change irreversibly for the worse. Get used to it, it is coming like a freight train and will shatter your alternate reality.
“I got news for you, your world is going to change irreversibly for the worse.”
Not “your” but “our”, including most of the world including planet earth for the better cooperatively, although initially not perceived by some as a function of half-lives and/or no lives.
Happy New Year.
RE: Sun Tzu on December 28, 2021 · at 1:01 pm EST/EDT
It is not wise to rely on assumption, extrapolation or interpretation in making the way.
” there is no real discussion or novel thoughts.”
That is one of the purposes of blogs; another purpose is for bloggers and their “audiences” to believe that such is not the case, thereby facilitating a festival of dancing between we the people who hold these truths to be self-evident and those who believe they know the “truth through analysis”, sometimes facilitating dancing without “partners”.
Well, well, well…such a tirade I haven’t read in quite a while.
You’re judging a country that has existed for millennia, survived countless attempts to destroy it, based on two men, Gorbachev and Yeltsin, with Putin as an added perk. Are those your “historical standards”? Quite an overwhelming insight.
And what are the “internal historical, socioeconomic, and political processes” at work that have “Russia on decline for its own reasons”? You failed to mention any, didn’t elaborate on why Russia is on decline, in fact, you didn’t elaborate on any of your…”assertions.” Just FYI, Russia is not blaming the West about anything, all Russia is aiming to do with these demands is to redress a historical and geopolitical imbalance. You’re slandering Russia’s intentions, and lying about it too. It seems all your “reasoning” is purely on the surface, no substance whatsoever, purely regurgitated neo-liberal verbiage with intellectual pretensions.
Yes, above commenter was aiming at bird A and succeeded to shoot down bird B.
Of course the ruskies are not blaming the ones that brought the soviet empire down, I ve never seen them do it except for petty hints on Gorbatchov having had a number of good cards in sleeve but his belief in the new partners… misled him not to use them.
Pitoresca sua “análise”. Vamos chamar assim na falta de um termo melhor.
Se considerarmos o que disse biden quando assumiu seu estágio probatório na casa Branca ou seja, que olhou nos olhos de Putin e só viu um assassino, e agora pede conferência depois de receber um ultimato desse “assassino”, não parece que tal ultimato tem importância só para os russos como vc afirma.
No mais, parece haver um enorme penhasco e uma vasta planície separando a sua “análise” – novamente vou chamar assim pois ainda não consegui encontrar um termo melhor – da realidade factual que essa situação nos apresenta.
Se um país como a Rússia, fazendo o que vem fazendo, não está no seu melhor momento, que país estaria de acordo com sua “abalizada” opinião?
Quanto ao seu queixume de que esse blogue é só um clubinho de amigos que se reúnem aqui para ficarem se endossando mutuamente, isso deve acontecer pelo fato de que é uma forma de ficarmos a salvo de “análises” sem pé nem cabeça como a sua. Isso o que vc afirma aqui é o que se encontra corriqueiramente na mídia quadrilheira ocidental, o mais do mesmo lixo desinformativo indigesto que ela despeja todos os dias sobre os desavisados.
Mas fique tranquilo, você nunca será reconhecido como sócio desse clube. Nós faremos esse favor a nós mesmos.
Google translate from Mod:-
Picturesque your “analysis”. Let’s call so on the lack of a better term.
If we consider what Biden said when he took his probative stage in the White House, that he looked into Putin’s eyes and only saw a murderer, and now he asks for a conference after receiving an ultimatum of this “murderer”, it does not seem to Only for the Russians as you say.
No more, there seems to be a huge cliff and a vast plain separating its “analysis” – again I will call so because I have not yet been able to find a better term – of the factual reality that this situation presents us.
If a country like Russia, doing what you have been doing, is not at your best time, what country would I agree with your “abalized” opinion?
As for his complaining that this blog is just a club of friends who come together here to endorse each other mutually, this should happen because it is a way of being saved from “analyzes” without foot or head like yours. This is what you say here is what is muted in the Western Quest Media, the most of the same indigestible disinformative garbage that it turns every day on the unsuspecting.
But rest assured, you will never be recognized as a member of this club. We will do this favor to ourselves.
Waw, by the number of comments you got your 5 minutes of fame.
Now back to reality? Yeltsin or Bidden? Gorbachov or take your pick Trump, Obama or Bush Jr? And then who on the US side would stand up to Putin? Clinton male or female? And we need a Putin type to save what can be saved.
Notice that your comment is still published on this blog so I have the impression that your view is a tiny minority view. Go play on MSM blogs that adhere with your views or come again with facts and data.
I wish you a happy New Year and a splendid 2022, by the way this to all of humanity we will need it.
Putin is no fool. He’s a cold-thinking and true patriot.
He just bided his time.
He’ll roll everything back now, watch him.