Greetings to the Saker community and readers.
So, the UK people, contrary to the “script” that wanted a narrow Remain win have elected to leave the European Union. As it could also have been predicted, there are calls to repeat the vote as the result is not the “correct” one. And as if the extremely narrow gap between the two voting blocs was not bad enough – for the record 16,141,241 voted to Remain and 17,410,742 people voted to Leave – two of the members of the UK actually overwhelmingly voted to Remain and are now looking at other options.
In Scotland, voices for a second independence referendum have started and Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s First Minister has stated that Holyrood (Scottish Parliament) will try to veto the exit decision.
As for Northern Ireland, their position is very nicely depicted here:
Senior government officials in Northern Ireland have even called for a referendum to unite with the rest of Ireland. It appears that the United Kingdom might not be so united after all.
But what about the European Union itself? First, there is the fact that nobody ever implemented Article 50 which governs how a member state can leave the Union. Simply put, the process is the following:
- First, the member state wishing to leave must explicitly and in very clear way formally request the European Council to invoke Article 50.
- Following that the leaving member and the rest of the EU begin negotiations on a “Departure Treaty”, basically a set of rules that will govern the relationship between the two parties after the departure. These rules can be anything from aviation agreements to border controls, visa requirements, taxation etc. The important thing here is that once the agreement is reached, European parliament must ratify this treaty and then pass it to the European Council where a special majority of EU members (excluding the member asking to leave) must ratify the treaty. If memory serves, this majority has to be 75%.
- Failing to reach an agreement within two years from the day of the invocation of Article 50, both the leaving state and the rest of the EU mutually agree to extend the negotiation period or all existing treaties between the leaving state and the EU are automatically cancelled.
It is clear from the process outlined above that there is a good chance that this divorce will be a drawn out process, despite the fact that the six founding members of the EU (Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands) naturally want this process to be concluded as soon as possible.
The worrying thing about this event though is that the idea of an EU army became stronger. Already, the head of the head of the European Parliament Committee of Foreign Affairs, Mr Elmar Brok, is promoting the idea despite acknowledging that the EU constitution as it stands prohibits the creation of an EU army.I guess he took a page out of the US diplomatic group as he states that an EU army will strengthen the EUs foreign policy.
However, one is forced to wonder – does the EU really need an army? And most importantly, what will NATOs role be in all this?
To answer the first question, no. EU needs to realise that in order to have a foreign policy first and foremost you have to think for yourself and act independently or as an equal in an alliance. Being ordered around by other countries is counter-productive to put it mildly. And as the financial crisis in the European South has proved, EU is far more effective in getting what it wants by pushing its economic weight around.
Now for the second question – NATO at the moment has 28 members, out of which 22 (including the UK) are also EU members. One can easily argue that the EU is effectively occupied by NATO. And of course, NATO = USA. I seriously doubt that the USA will accept any challenge to NATO dominance, unless this EU army initiative is a clever way to convince all EU members to increase defence spending for NATO under a different label and also draw funds from those EU members that are not NATO members. Needless to say that the people of Europe do not want to spend money on this, however this is duly ignored by the governments (at least those who can pay for this) and vague external threats have to be invented to persuade the populace.
It appears that while EU is at critical crossroads. Germany is calling for an EU army, Le Pen in France has formally asked Hollande for a vote on France exiting the EU. Hollande of course denied this request. The European south is either financially crumbling or on wobbly legs at best. Immigration and demographic change have started to create tensions in communities across the EU – Sharia police in Germany anyone?
So what does the future hold? Will the EU elites be vindictive against the UK and try to make an example of them in order to show to anyone else harbouring exit ideas to refrain from expressing them? Surely, EU can make life pretty miserable for the next UK government. But the question remains, who will pick up the UK’s tab once it leaves the EU? For example, the next time an EU member needs a bailout, who will cover UK’s share? While the net contribution amount might look small (£8,473 million for 2015), it still has to come from somewhere. According to official UK data from December, the UK contributes 12.57% of the total EU budget.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/483344/EU_finances_2015_final_web_09122015.pdf page 17)
Someone will have to pay for this. And it looks increasingly likely that the UK will get an exit deal based on WTO rules instead of the single market rules they are used to now.
Regardless of the correctness of the outcome in the UK referendum which is subjective to one’s views, the EU needs to take a really hard look on itself and decide which direction to follow in the coming years. Obviously the current model of consolidating industry to the EU core while forcing the periphery to be financially addicted to the EU no longer works.
There will be interesting times ahead.
Reposted with images and credit. Thank you.
I’m a “big” believer at looking at statistics,and from that to understand or try to see motives behind an action. So lets look a bit at the statistics from Brexit. First,the UK is “officially” made up of 4 main parts. But when we look deeper we find that nearly 90% of its population lives in the English and Welsh parts of the UK.And it is those two parts that voted ,by far the highest for Brexit. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted around two-thirds to remain in the EU,lets see who and why. Around a third voted to leave in those areas,so we don’t really need to examine those voters. But if we look closely at the “remain” voters,what do we find.I suspect first in the total UK we would see that the immigrant “New Briton” communities voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU.They don’t have a “British” background or traditional loyalty to the ideal of an independent British state.So that is no surprise there.The remain camp counted on that in the election.I also suspect that a huge number of the Scots that voted to “remain” were the same people that voted in the other referendum for Scotland to breakaway from the UK. They see their route to an independent Scotland as easier through Britain’s being a part of the EU (and also since the English were for leave,they would be against it).As to Northern Ireland it is much the same. If you could breakdown that vote. Its almost certain between the Northern Irish Catholic and the immigrant communities,there is a huge section of the remain vote. Between those groups in the UK,you probably have around a third of the “remain” vote.And the motives of those groups are pretty clear.
As to the EU itself. The “cheated” Mr Hofer in Austria has said his party will push for Austria to leave the EU. Whether that will work I don’t know.Personally I don’t think until a country “on the Continent” leaves,can we talk of the EU collapsing.If they are smart Austria and Greece should be the first two. And Le Pen should make Hollande’s refusal to even think of a referendum a stick to beat him with in the coming elections.Also the Netherlands and Finland are possibilities. I doubt at present any “Eastern” country would do so.If you look at the chart in this article you see they are paying little to the EU and almost certainly get much of the EU payments (as well as an escape hatch” for their unemployed to move “West” in the EU)..Its of course too early to say what will happen in the EU. I still don’t see “Brexit” as finished yet. If the elite globalists can they will still try to destroy it.
The sit is simpler, much, much simpler.
Those, on any sort of welfare, assistence, want to stay under the largest umbrella possible. All the beurocrats naturally…
Except of course my fav UK MP: https://m.youtube.com/results?q=hannan%20oxford&sm=3
Those, with indenpendent income and mind want to be rid of their leaches and chains.
That is how simpe the world is.
The World is never that simple. Your argument is the same as the old Republican one in the US that divided people so badly (and they lost the White House with it),”its the poor to blame. Its all the poor’s fault”. Whether you can believe the official reports or not,I’m not sure. The remain group is “supposed” to have higher incomes and education levels than the leave people (in general). That of course only means something if you believe “educated and wealthy” makes you more of a “real human being”. And those “poor loafers” need to “mind their betters”. Which is how your comment sounds BTW.
Well, uncle, maybe it sounds like it ‘cos that is what I said :)
The britts are learning, that there is no free lunch and freedom is not free. They will pay dearly for the knowledge, but will b better in the long run for it.
As for the States for example, since you mentioned the republicans, they lost it all, when they abandoned their principles. Trump is holding their feet to the fire as we speak.
There is NOTHING republican about them, they are libtard-light.
Now, I do not hold a grudge towards the weak in body or the weak of mind, I just ask, that in exchange for their keep, they stfu, so at the end of the day there is enough left to pass around for them.
And when I say weak of the mind, mind you, I am not talking about the uneducated either.
No, I am not a democrat.
Democracy might have been adequate for the States, at the time of it’s origin, but woefully lacking now.
What do you call a system, that has created a 100 million dependents and gave them the right to vote what’s for dinner?
I call it stupid.
It will change, because it must – and soon. To what form?
Something unpleasant for all involved. It is the nature of consequences.
Hmmm,interesting. Few are so open with their elitism and “exceptionalism”. I’ll have to congratulate you on your honesty for that. Of course if you had lived in the 18th Century in France you’d have been lucky to escape the guillotine with that kind of thinking.Or in Russia during the Revolution a firing squad. So maybe the “kinder” age of today has been a benefit for you.
Oh, I am keeping all those options open for all, that would do that to me, thank you!
You have forgot to mention a lot od journalists killed by sudden speed of their car remotely operated by gangsters who want them to be quiet immediatelly
finland wants to join sco….
@ Uncle B:
“I’m a “big” believer at looking at statistics, and from that to understand or try to see motives behind an action. So lets look a bit at the statistics from Brexit [etc, etc]”
I agree with you analysis, so I don’t have a lot to add except for an expansion on Scotland.
I supported Scotland becoming independent, and I would totally support Northern Ireland reunification with the Republic and finally become one Ireland. Enough of this artificial Anglo division of North and South! Anyhoo, against all logic (and lack of national pride) the Scotts voted against independence. Why? Money. It’s as simple as that. England bank-rolls Scotland, they would have lost that and they would have to stand on their own two feet.
It’s the same reason why they voted to remain in the EU (EU subsidies). Additionally to that, Scotland is like, what, just over half the size of England and they have about half the population of London (let that sink in, for a moment).
They’re certainly not feeling the horrors of overcrowding England is, let alone London. On top of that, they’re not feeling as harshly the effects of uncontrolled mass immigration. Why? Because the immigrants themselves don’t want to go to Scotland. According to the immigrants Scotland is depressing; too gloomy, too dark, too dump, too cold.
So the Scottish voting to stay on the EU is a clear case of ‘I’m alright Jack’ like pretty much it’s also the case with all Remaniacs; they either benefit from the EU (businesses, corporations, banks, for example), or they do not suffer the ill effects of being in the EU (middle and upper middle class), or both.
What really concerns me are the financial rats. When they start jumping, we’re all liable to get wet; and of course the rats will have already taken the life boats.
Don’t worry the rats are going to end on one secluded island as a result of the expulsion from every single country around the this world.
They will get their GMO food and they are going to be able to take only one suitcase and all of the stollen goods they will be force to leave behind.
They are asking for this treatment and they will get this as a reward for all of these atrocities what they have created on this earth
They are going to be watched very closely and they can enslave each other how they have planned to do for the humanity of this earth
This vision was written very long time ago and it looks like we are getting closer and closer for the fulfilment of these prophesies
As I said repeatedly before elsewhere in this blog, Brexit is far from a straightline denouement and my prediction, based on the labyrinth pointed out by Art. 50, it is likely that it will never happen.
The power elites, particularly the City, will never consent to it and they are aided by the convoluted process of exiting. The UK has had a consistent past of throwing spanners in the works by constant demands for privileges, concessions and exemptions since the distant days of Thatcher until the more recent spats with Cameron who was forced into humiliating retreats.
The long process of exiting the EU is cluttered with so many imponderables such as changes of government in the UK, Parliament approvals for a plethora of legislation and the great complexity of going through mountains of directives, laws and regulations to create a new divorce treaty that has to go through the gauntlet of Westminster, EU Parliament and EU Council.
Meanwhile, the Brexit referendum had become a distant memory, a massive propaganda campaign is unleashed and a new government gets the new correct referendum.
Unless many others rats jump from the USS Europa.
”The power elites, particularly the City, will never consent to it…”
don’t know if this snippet changes your above statement, but
i heard frankfurt is bidding to take over london’s financial
article 50 was probably specifically deigned that way.
it goes along withe whole set up…..no law can ever be
repealed and many other totalitarian scheming.
Watching the EU reaction to Brexit “do it now” compared to the US reaction “take your time”, it does seem as if some in the EU, France and Germany want to break away from the US.
An article here from NYT.
With ‘Brexit,’ Washington’s Direct Line to the Continent Suddenly Frays
American officials struggling to reimagine their strategy after Britain’s decision to divorce the European Union say the most urgent challenge will be to find a way to replace their most reliable, sympathetic partner in the hallways of European capitals. It will not be easy….
…American officials struggling to reimagine their strategy after Britain’s decision to divorce the European Union say the most urgent challenge will be to find a way to replace their most reliable, sympathetic partner in the hallways of European capitals. It will not be easy.
No nation shares Washington’s worldview quite the way Britain does, they say; the country has long been the United States’ most willing security ally, most effective intelligence partner and greatest enthusiast of the free-trade mantras that, until recently, were a keystone of America’s internationalist approach. And few nations were as willing to put a thumb as firmly on the scales of European debates in ways that benefit the United States.
Now that quiet diplomatic leverage — including moderating European trade demands and strong-arming nations to contribute more to NATO military missions — is suddenly diminished.
How many american troops are stationed in Germany? How many american military bases and installations are there in Germany?
The western oligarchy, be it zionazi or one of the other old skool non-chosen fascists, have this in common:
“We are no longer national oriented, we’re international greed mongers.”
With the very important exception of israel, these zpc/nwo sods are generations past, now, any sort of nationalism.
There is no us vs eu. That is an obfuscation of the problem.
About 50 thou amerikwan…….and, wait for it:
22 thou brittish troop…
Thanks for the thoughtful post! I also enjoy Peter Koenig’s take on all things EU. He charted a potential path for constructive change on the continent post-Brexit:
My thinking on the matter is, that th EUSSR will go the way of the ole ussr. First ridicule, disbelief, then corruption, sabotage, then resistance, then – we win.
Of course ther is still the ugly bizniss of repatriating the rapeugees, but at that point, with no social services left for them to leach off of, most will move.
My opinion is EU/Langley will never let UK leave the fold. The ‘leave’ process was deliberately made extremely complicated similar to the Gordian Knot and since UK does not have a sword to cut the knot in the end they will stay as will all other EU countries. NATO will be the power in EU for the foreseeable future and that is a given, few if any occupying armies have ever left an occupied country voluntarily and Europe will be no exception.
The majority of the britts are gone.
They have jumped the ship, and will be follwed by the rest of the inhabitants of the present
The breakup is inevitable, just a matter of time, but I’d advise for the sooner.
The emperor has no clothes and the words are spoken out loud.
Russians has left voluntarily after the 1989 coupe made by who else like USA . Russians left former Czechoslovakia because in very hurry Mr. Havel immediately resolved the Warsaw pact conducted by the Anglo-Zio conductors.
I just read an article of Valéry d’Éstaing about the changes in the EU Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty. There were not many changes at all, things were reshuffled. But what did change was this:
“Far more important are the concessions made to the British. The Charter of Fundamental Rights – an improved and updated version of the Charter of Human Rights – has been withdrawn from the draft treaty and made into a separate text, to which Britain will not be bound. In the area of judicial harmonisation and co-operation, Britain will have the right to duck in and out of the system as it pleases. Having already weakened all attempts at further European integration – such as by refusing the title of Minister for Foreign Affairs – Britain has also been allowed to be the odd man out whenever it feels like it.”
So if England can constitutional duck in and out of the EU, is this a planned policical coup?
Elmar Brok with nazi leader Parubiy on the “Maidan”:
When Europe was divided, British Agent Masons inspired the French Revolution. Jeremy Bentham, Satanic Head of MI6, “M”, was writing Robespiere’s speeches from London. Agent Napoleon then destroyed European infrastructure (It is not enough that I succeed, everyone else must fail!! – Genghis Khan) and pointed towards Russia.
When Europe was divided, KARL MARX – Wrote Das Capital from his MI6 provided office in the British National Museum under Ambassador Urquhart creating MI6 inspired Communism, Russian Revolution (65 millions tortured dead) and Mao’s Chinese Revolution (85 millions tortured dead), and Socialism. George Orwell’s Totalitarian text’s “1984” “A Boot, stamping in your face, forever” – the Totalitarian or Legalist Fake Gangs sprang from this bough. Capitalists, Marxists, Communists and Socialists spring from the same Fake Gangs bough. http://thesaker.is/moveable-feast-cafe-2016-06-21/#comment-251593
When Europe was divided, Agent Hitler was wound up and pointed towards Russia.
After the failure of Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine and Sanctions…
Breakup of the EU will make the attack on Russia and it’s Silk Road infrastructure (See Lawrence of Arabia) by similar agents a possibility again.
But Russia is prepared to give another lesson to the intruders and if they want to get this lesson then let them get one
As a British citizen who voted “Leave”, I rather resent being depicted as a rat leaving the sinking ship. Couldn’t we be Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet instead?
I’m not from the UK, but my favourite image for “Leave” is proud John Laughland on RT’s Crosstalk, Brexit episode. He dressed as usual in a proper suit jacket, with a British flag tucked in the pocket. Loved it. Looked like a silk flag too?
I am sorry, if that is the impression you got, I apologize.
Let us say you made your way to the lifeboats, and are on your way of figuring out how to cut the locks off the winches. Aight?
And thank you for your troubles from the bottom of my dark heart…I had a few on ya Tommy! Still hungover…:)
@ Tom Welsch
These rats are NOT about you and congratulation to your brave decision because you have made a new history possible pretty soon we will be celebrating together
Der spiegel is publishing extracts from the EU defence security policy by Mogherini due out formally at the end of the weekpost brexit…….hope we get an analysis……..item on rt today
The British citizens have expressed their wish to quit the EU but it is far from certain that the UK is going to leave the EU. The procedure is complex and nobody knows who in the UK will trigger the button to get out. What is surprising is the stock market reaction because actually nothing has happened except some confusion in the British political system. For me the market is using the Brexit as a scapegoat to squeeze the common people. It is another great robbery.
It is true that if our elites are able to burry that referendum, it will be a clear sign that the democracy in Europe is dead. I would expect that most European countries, if they were given the opportunity, would vote like the British citizen did for a large majority of people in Europe are opposed to the EU and the Bruxelles’ bureaucrats. So the British citizens have expressed what most Europeans feels but nothing will happen as our elites being managed by Washington do not care about the European people
@Jean de Peyrelongue
Thank you for your truth regarding to the European people, you are totally right. We don’t need to get the direction or description how the banana should look like and what type of sugar we are going to consume or how many bathrooms we can have in our public spaces.
Another opinion on Brexit
Let’s have a little honesty here. That Northern Ireland poster is interesting. The article does not cite its source, however, with a little bit of common sense and local knowledge, certain things can be deduced. Firstly, it flies two Union Jacks at the top of the Mural. Therefore its source is not from the republican side as it is clearly aimed to the unionists. Republicans in Northern Ireland do not fly or portray Union Jacks. The second thing we can deduce is that the source of the mural is not the Loyalist side. Why so? For the simple reason that the majority of the loyalist working class would have zero sympathy for multiculturalism, diversity or gay rights. That just doesn’t fit with Northern Ireland loyalism, which is inward, regressive and hostile to alien cultural influences and intrusions. I don’t know who the originator of that mural is or where it is located, but it won’t have any traction in Northern Ireland.
Further, the claim that Northern Ireland government officials are calling for union with Ireland, or Eire in our first official language, is very dubious if not downright dishonest. Martin McGuinness, former chief of staff of the Provisional IRA, calling for Irish Unity????? Is the Pope a Catholic? Every second breath from Martin McGuinness is a call for the reunion of Ireland north and south. That ain’t gonna happen anytime soon. I’m not sure that it would in this day and age even be a popular aspiration in the south of Ireland, never mind the North. We have enough problems down here, without adopting that one. The above suggests to me that the author of this piece has at least a careless attitude towards accuracy in his or her writing.
Great comment. The Northern Irish also don’t like ME immigration, so it’s hard to see them favoring diversity.