Today, I want to comment on a topic I did not address yet: the quality of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Over night, two Ukrainian helicopters flying at very low altitude and high speed flew across the Russian-Ukrainian border, and in only six minutes of flight time found themselves next to a fuel storage facility near the Russian city of Belgorod. They both fired, one missed, but the second one hit perfectly and the entire fuel storage facility ignited. Not a big deal, the fire has been contained, but very embarrassing nonetheless :-(
Another case: the night before yesterday a group of 5 Ukrainian helicopters took off from Nikolaev, flew 7 meters above the waves and landed in Mariupol. Their mission was to evacuate the leadership of the Azov force still hiding inside the Azovstal industrial facility. After they took off, two helicopters were shot down, but another three flew away, with a possible 3 helicopters ditching in the waters off the coast (unclear at this time).
Why do I consider these two events very telling?
Because it shows that the Ukrainian soldiers have A LOT of VERY REAL courage. Not only that, in both of these operations, a great deal of careful planning went into the preparations of these missions. So they are not only courageous, they are SMART.
Yes, the Ukie Volkssturm is a joke, but not the entire Ukrainian military and most definitely not the Nazis of the Azov “battalion” (it is not really a battalion, but rather a regiment or a small brigade, but spread out in key sectors of the Ukrainian defenses). Why is that so important to realize?
Because a HUGE battle is preparing in the Donbass.
While nobody knows the true size of the Ukrainian force surrounded in the Donbass, most observers place that force at about 60-80 thousand men. They are VERY well armed, courtesy of 7 years of mass delivery of weapons by the Empire of Lies. Their defenses are very solid, since they have been preparing them also for seven years. Furthermore, the Ukrainians are reportedly trying to bring in another major force from the central Ukraine to either reinforce their forces in the Donbass, or to help it to escape from their cauldron.
On the other side, nobody really knows how many Russian/LDNR forces are being concentrated around the Donbass either. There are reports of “immense” columns of Russian forces moving towards the Donbass, including some the Russian forces which were deployed near Kiev to pin down Ukrainian forces away from the Donbass.
The same feint was used by the Black Sea Fleet off the coast of Odessa.
There are two ways to control a road: you can stand on the road, place a roadblock, maybe lay mines and generally be physically on top of that road. Or you can do that remotely, without stepping on the road but by being able to fire (small arms, RPG, artillery, CAS) at any vehicle driving on that road. The Russian “encirclement” of the Ukrainian force in the Donbass into 2 small cauldrons which themselves are locked in a bigger cauldron are a mix of these two techniques. In other words, the Ukrainians still have retained *some* ability to move on the ground. But only at VERY high risk. Keep in mind that the Donbass is pretty flat terrain and that the Russians have air supremacy. But, with enough luck, immense courage and determination, some APC or cars could try to move out, or reinforcements move in. Let’s look at these two options:
Moving out: for a FEW vehicles, and with a lot of luck, that could still be doable. But for the overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian force on the Donbass, this is not an option. Not only do they lack fuel, any big force would attract the attention of the Russians (which a 4 passenger car going at full speed in the dark might not) resulting in immediate strikes.
Moving in: here the Ukrainians would still have fuel (or they would not even try, which they apparently are), but the problem is that it is impossible to hide any significant force from the Russians which could then use their long range artillery and close air support to destroy that force. I am personally very dubious as to the chances of any Ukrainian subunit to make it to the Donbass.
The Ukrainian propaganda is beyond ridiculous, but we should NOT assume that if Ukie propagandists are clowns, so are the Ukrainian soldiers. The fact is that the Ukrainians never had the initiative, and they still don’t, and all their counter-attacks, including the airstrike on Belgorod, only had a limited and local effect. But that does not mean that they would not fight very hard for their lives, even when surrounded, even without air cover, with no ability to rotate forces and not enough fuel to engage in maneuver warfare.
Here is what the map of the area of operations looks like today:
- The yellow circle is roughly the area where the outcome of this battle will be decided.
- The small black arrow represents the likely Ukrainian effort to send in reinforcements
- The big black arrow represents the move away from Kiev and towards the Donbass by Russian forces
Speaking about maps: while they do, more or less, show the military reality on the ground, they do not show the political realities the same way. The truth is that there are plenty of towns and cities which are blocked/surrounded by Russian forces, but which are still run by the “old”, Nazi, authorities. Yes, the Russians could go in and denazify these town and cities manu militari, but that would take time, results in casualties on both sides and ruin the civilian infrastructure. And the Russians sure don’t want, say, Kharkov to become a 2nd Mariupol.
[Sidebar: some of you must have heard that canard about the Russians “running out of ammo”, right? Well, local residents near the Ukrainian positions in the Donbass report that for three days the Russian artillery has been shelling the Ukrainian positions nonstop. In reality, anybody who has studied the Soviet and, later, Russian military knows that with the exception of some very modern systems which have just been deployed, Russia has huge stores of ammunition. In fact, when the Russians prepare a military offensive the expenditures in ammo, POL, and any other form of logistics required are carefully calculated. If not, then the order to attack will not be given. And, with a few exceptions, the kind of hardware and supplies the Russians are using in the Ukraine is both modern and plentiful. By the way, there are signs that the Ukrainian forces are running out of ammo, most of their shelling is directed at LDNR cities and result in scores of death and injured civilians on a daily basis]
One possible option would be to warn the Nazi authorities that while the Russian military won’t invade their city, the Russians can use special forces and means to target “just” these Nazi authorities. Yes, the Nazi will set up traps, like, say, placing the cellphone of a Nazi leader right on top of a Kindergarten, so the Russian intelligence services will have to do a lot of careful preparations and planning, or just make the threat and then wait for the Nazis to freak out and wonder where the promised missile will be aimed at.
All this means the following:
- The Russians need to take the Ukrainians much more seriously and if that means having early warning aircraft and interceptors on combat air patrol 24/7 – then that is what the Russians should do. A pair of MiG-31BM on constant high altitude CAP over the central Ukraine would be a good start.
- While the outcome is not in doubt, the Russians need to be very careful and assume that the Ukrainians will fight with skills and courage.
- I don’t like making predictions, even less so, time-related ones, but I think that we need to prepare ourselves for a major battle lasting several weeks, possibly even a month.
- Have to assume that the PSYOPs of the Empire of Lies will go in full attack mode, and since it will be very hard to make sense of what will be going on, we have to ready for a major attack on our minds.
- Once that force in the Donbass is defeated this will basically mean the end of the 2nd phase of this Special Military Operation (SMO) and the very best and combat capable Ukrainians will have disappeared and a 3rd phase will begin, probably by an attack on the Nikolaev and Odessa regions.
Still, we need to remember that all wars are political in nature and that while the military “pain dial” is turned up quite high for the Ukrainians, the US PSYOPs are still telling the Ukrainians that they are winning and soon the first Ukie tanks will enter Moscow. The de facto fall of Mariupol (as evidenced by the desperate attempts to evacuate the Azov leaders by helicopter) is already a major blow for the Ukrainian narrative. But this blow pales in comparison to what will happen when the best forces the Ukraine has will simply disappear from the maps of the Donbass. At that point, no amount of hot air, grand statements or other lies will make a difference – such a defeat is impossible to conceal, it will make the news.
Furthermore, we need to keep another thing always present in our minds: while in actual combat the Russians are facing Ukrainians, in the war itself Russia is not fighting the Nazis in Kiev, but the US/NATO/EU and their vassal states. It is also certain that the “Biden” administration does not want peace but, instead, they want that war to last as long as possible and to destroy as much of the Ukrainian population and civilian infrastructure as possible. And, of course, the Russians are not negotiating with the Nazis, they are negotiating with Uncle Shmuel via the Nazis. Big difference. Right now, some Ukrainians might be willing to look at reality and surrender just to save lives and the Ukrainian infrastructure. But they know that the Nazis will kill them or kidnap their family members (as has happened to one Ukrainian mayor). And these Nazis are taking orders only from many Western “advisors” in Kiev who tell them “fight down to the last soldier, then we will evacuate you“.
You could say that the hardcore Ukronazis act like political commissars did during the Russian civil war.
The Russians fought phase one of the SMO with a force which was deliberately kept smaller than the opposing Ukrainian force. But against an elite Ukrainian force deeply dug in the heavily fortified defenses, Russia will have to to do some combination of two things: more man and more firepower. And, by all accounts, that seems to be exactly what they are gearing up for.
As many others have already pointed out, the chances of a false flag are extremely high, most likely some chemical attack, possibly in Kiev or Kharkov. Such an attack, while fake, will result in the usual hysterics of the Empire of Lies, so we all need to prepare ourselves for this too.
The Empire of lies is so desperate now, that US PSYOPs claim that the Russian generals are afraid of telling Putin the “horrible truth” and that Shoigu is preparing a coup against Putin. Right now, the Ukronazis say that the Russians are on the run, but even the US Pentagon admits that the forces moved away from Kiev are only regrouping.
Remember, in maneuver warfare you do not “hold terrain” anymore than you do in naval warfare, and that is what the first phase of the SMO was all about. But in the Donbass, holding terrain will become much more important and since both sides are very skilled and courageous, do NOT expect big movements on the map. Instead, expect several weeks of very severe “grinding down” of Ukrainian defenses followed by slow and deliberate movements, mostly short distance – from a few hundred meters to a few clicks.
I hope that the above will be helpful once the 2nd phase is fully launched.
One more thing: Western military aid to the Ukraine. Most of it is in Poland. True, there is A LOT of Western kit found in Mariupol or the Donbass, but that stuff was brought in long ago. Just look at the map, look at where the Polish-Ukrainian border is and then look at where the yellow circle is. In order to make a difference, Western weapon systems need to get across the entire Ukraine and enter into a highly contested and dangerous area. How can such a delivery be made? Three options:
In all three cases, if the force is tiny, say a few cars fill with MANPADs, there is a chance to make it, albeit a small one and such a “delivery” would be fantastically dangerous. But the Ukrainians have now PROVEN that they can be very tough and very smart. But such tiny reinforcements won’t make any difference. Now a bigger force might, but it would be instantly detected and attacked by Russians standoff weapons, close air support and long range artillery. So all this stuff about sending weapons to the Ukrainians really is a load of crap. It’s just irrelevant fake news.
So far the Russians did not consider such a possibility as significant, hence the fact that they did not blow up any bridges, remotely mined any roads or destroyed any train tracks (that I am aware of). But if the risk of a significant reinforcements from the western Ukraine become a real threat, you can rest assured that the Russians will do all of the above, especially since there are very few towns and civilians in some parts of this track to the East.
So far the Russian policy was to let the (covert) NATO forces to gather in an assembly area and only then hit them really hard. This is a very effective strategy which the NATO forces have found no way to counter (if only because NATO air defenses are a joke, even against trans-sonic and subsonic missiles and drone).
Finally, the Ukrainians don’t have any air force left, and no navy, but they have proven that they still can use helicopters flying very low and fast, especially at night when local air defense operators might mistake them for a Russian helicopter (friendly fire is always a major risk in warfare). BTW – a helicopter is a hard target, not only do they fly very low, they can fly both fast (say to avoid a MANPAD) or very slow, to hide for fighters and interceptors. A slowly moving and low flying helicopter is a difficult target for fighter aircraft’s radar and infrared search and track system. A hilly or mountainous terrain makes detection even harder.
Russian attack helicopters all have air to air capabilities, both gun and missile, and so they can be very effectively used against Ukrainian helicopters (which are a full generation behind modern Russian helicopters) but you need to have them ready and you need to have them fly under air cover. So that is doable, it just takes time.
Phase one, pure maneuver warfare is over and it was a military success.
Politically, it was pretty close to a failure, not only did the PSYOPS of the Empire of Lies totally crush the rather clumsy and primitive Russian counter-propaganda efforts, the Russians also failed to realize that they could not count on the local civilians authorities to simply do their job under a new flag.
Which means that Russia failed to properly denazify even the towns and cities which were deep in the Russian rear. Now that miscalculation will have to be fixed the hard way: with more men and more firepower.
Phase two of this war will be the liquidation of the Donbass cauldron and it will decide the outcome of this war (not that this outcome was ever in doubt).
On a personal note, I will only add that the past month has convinced me that Russia should NOT permanently occupy more of the Ukraine than the “full” LDNR plus the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast. But neither can Russia leave the Ukraine like a Petri dish for Nazi toxins, so it seems to me that the optimal solution would be a breakup of the country into several successor states: neutral, with only police forces and light arms and with a clear understanding that Russia has the means to militarily intervene at any minute should the successor states attempt to violate their neutral, unarmed and denazified status.
Will that happen?
I don’t know, Putin has already surprised me twice with very risky operations which I would have recommended against (Syria and that “big” SMO in lieu of a “small” liberation of “just” the LDNR). Considering that Russia has used only a small fraction of her armed forces, it is impossible for me to predict what Putin and the Russian General Staff will decide after the second phase of this SMO is over.
Finally, I am going to take the next two days off, barring some major developments, of course.
So until Monday, then, God willing.
So, you totally missed that the RU armed forces retreated from around Kiev and Chernigov today?
Bucha, Gostomel, Borodyanka, Vorzel…all those towns were left by Russians.
Eric Cartman, read the article again and look at the black arrows on the provided map. Hopefully, you are not in Biden’s cognitive state and are able to read and comprehend.
“Hopefully, you are not in Biden’s cognitive state and are able to read and comprehend”
I wouldn’t bank on that.
I regularly get illiterate comments from illiterate people
but this is the first time that a nice little drawing, WITH a legend is above the IQ capabilities of a reader.
That is a first.
Please also save me the effort and just don’t come back: this blog is not for your mental level.
A picture paints a thousand words.
For some, a thousand words is still too much.
An intellectual is : ”Someone who has been educated beyond his/hers intelligence”.
Arthur C. Clarke – 3001 The Final Odyssey – p.263
The trouble with the western Mind that it believes in the individual – a very ephemeral thing which probably doesn’t exist any more than your little finger exists independently from your hand.
Ideas are not ours, they exist in the “mindsphere” and pass thru our minds same as software do no belong in the computer where they are executed.
Most of our ideas are so trivial it is better for our self-esteem to not own them anyway.
Our neural system is a receptor plugged into the dynamic flow of “ideas” and some kind of projector that allows them to shape up the world of phenomena. Outcome is messy due to our unawareness of the whole process.
Any individual believing she exists and has ideas of her own is definite proof she is an imbecile.
Yes, she is, but alas! being an imbecile she is not able to recognise that she is one, so, for all practical reasons, she is not! – and she continues to believe that she exists and has ideas of her own!
But if “she” is a receptor and projector, you cannot label fairly her “imbecile”. Since “believing she exists and has ideas of her own” are merely what “the dynamic flow” has given her. Your initial proposition is that she does not exist, except as some sort of imperfect mirror, or electricguitarst’s stompbox. You can only say that the reflection has been given the precursors of, or the ingredients for, “imbecile”.
Yours is a description which I have not encountered before. I find it interesting.
Well, I wish I had listened carefully to my high school professor,when he was teaching us about Plato and his cave with the shadows. Now it’s too late for such a study. The only thing I know is that, whenever I recognise such a type of a person, I stop arguing, I don’t lock horns, my ego does not feel hurt and I take evasive action to keep calm and sane, (whatever the word ”sane” means). ”Thank you” to all of you,my friends. From now on it will be real fun to talk about the ”Dunning-Kruger effect” I learnt, while posting in The Saker’s blog about Ukraine! Surreal!!
I came to a Sitrep and a philosophical discussion broke out. Thank God for the Saker.
Plato’s ‘Cave and Shadows’ are a good illustration of how light casts an outline of something real but the shadow does not hold meaningful content. The shadows are filled in by our neurotic fears,desires, or in the case of the Planet of the Apes, by USkrainian disinformation.
Having the “she” imbecile functioning as a mirror is a good image, especially if one remembers that the image in a mirror is reversed.
In other words, the imbecile, in spite of “herself” always points in a proximate to opposite direction to the truth, though totally unconsciously.
Thank God then for the imbecile for she too is conscripted to do God’s revelatory work.
Around 3/4 of what Greg Galloway wrote is gibberish and the other 1/4 is false. It’s a trouble with the western mind that people like that are treated like individuals and have a right of free speech.
That’s an intellectual,isn’t it?
Yes, the Dunning-Kruger effect!
”The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence.”
Thank you, Mr.Jack Hamilton!
The hope is not lost,yet!
To be a reader of The Saker’s blog helps eneryone to become a wiser man/woman!
“To be a reader of The Saker’s blog helps eneryone to become a wiser man/woman!”
Thereby facilitating some presenting The Dunning-Kruger effect during reading and writing..
Comparative analyses suggest that the effect is more prominent in interactions within competitive coercive social relations, most markely those in which we the people hold these truths to be self-evident and immersion in “World Series” encouraging fear of “ignorance/losing”, and hence affords opportunities to “the other” since some are enmazed in the cult thereby derived.
Thank you, dear Salt!
”The effect is more prominent in interactions within competitive coercive social relations…”
So,it depends upon the specific everyone’s social relations or, rather, the social relations of the society everyone lives in. That is, are these social relations or the society with such relations -competitive and coercive, so that the Dunning-Kruger effect takes place? If yes, and if we don’t like them, can we change these relations and how? If not, why, which is the secret of this society, living with not competitive and not coercive social relations? And has this Special Military Operation and this blog any interaction with the building of a society of easy serene humanitarian social relations ?
Sorry, let me correct this terrible typo:
An intellectual is : ”Someone who has been educated beyond his/her intelligence”.
Arthur C. Clarke – 3001 The Final Odyssey – p.263
Then not many qualify as intellectuals.
To be fair to young Eric, many people are illiterate in Russian.
I looked at the map and could not decypher the key since it was writ in Russian.
The yellow circle is roughly the area where the outcome of this battle will be decided.
The small black arrow represents the likely Ukrainian effort to send in reinforcements
The big black arrow represents the move away from Kiev and towards the Donbass by Russian forces
My fault !
I should have added,that these are the explanations written under the map in the middle of the post.
The map is in Russian?? I do read Cyrillic alphabet but I know just a few words in Russian. I did not even realize the map was in Russian. I understood everything perfectly. Thanks!
Yes the map is in Russian, but if Mr. Cartman had actually read the post, he would’ve/should’ve seen the explanation (in more than one place) of the long black arrow and Russian troop movements.
Thank you for your efforts to put the truth out there. Some folks are just too propagandized and brain dead to appreciate it.
Signs of the psychosis. Complete refusal of any facts or data that are outside of the narrative. His voices-of-authority say Russia is retreating, so by God Russia is retreating and you will never be able to tell them different. Also, my bet would be that these successful helicopter operations were almost certainly planned by the US military, not the Ukro’s
The real question is how many military units were wasted by Ukraine, waiting a month for an attack that never came?
But if they didn’t have any troops there, wouldn’t Russia have just taken Kiev immediately? It seems to me, the only way for Ukraine to win would be to have not taken NATO’s bait and fight Russia. Now it is a bit late for that.
Ukraine didn’t have that option since Zelensky is a puppet and the shots are called by his Nato/globalist controllers.
One successful attack on Russian soil does not change anything.
The NAZI – NATO officers in Mariupol is being eradicated, even though Macron and Erdogan have pleaded feverishly for a “humanitarian evacuation” but in reality used as a possible RAT-Line out of Mariupol for NATO military Instructors. The RAT-Line failed, and thus the need for the evacuation of NATO staff by Helicopters.
However the air lift mission also failed, as 2 helicopters were shot down and the only 2 survivors were taken prisoners and interrogated by Russia.
At this point NATO was p#### and made the operation into a diversion attack on the Oil depo in Belgorod.
The route from Mariupol to Belgorod goes straight across the Donbass Cauldron of Ukrainian Forces (Safe territory and refuel?) That would be the way to NAZI infested Kharkov and across the border into Belgorod.
The Helicopters was the MI-24 type used by many former East Block Nations and Russia. Who is to decide within seconds whether a low flying MI-24 in the dark, is friend or foe, while transiting a combat area?
The big question is whether there were NATO supply involved in these operations.
If so NATO is directly implicated in war in Ukraine and that opens up for a major escalation of the conflict.
NATO will deny any involvement and Russia may not want to expose the facts, as it widens the conflict.
After the failed airlift out of Mariupol, NATO performed a diversion attack, as retaliation for the killed NATO officers. And what is everybody talking about today?
The attack on Russian territory, not the failed NATO airlift out of Mariupol.
On another front, the European population is being crushed by Inflation. European politicians are being dragged screaming and kicking to buy Russian Rubles in order to save their own ass form an enraged European population. Macron is now facing the worst possible scenario for a reelection with major riots this spring.
And so is Joe Biden, as both the Gas shortage, inflation and the Hunter laptop is on everybody’s tongue, while the midterm elections is approaching, with the worst poll shown for any president in American History.
In the meantime US “diplomats” have been sent to threaten Iran, India, and china not to support Russia by buying Russian commodities. However they got a clear “Yankee Go Home and mind your own business” from every one of them. Even Venezuela will not sell Oil to America, even though they are blocked by US sanctions.
The Globalist Deep state in the US and EU is going down with the Dollar and the euro, as the Russian Ruble has regained its pre-war status, by being backed both by Gold and essential commodities.
Russia has the military, economic and moral momentum, so Keep Going Russia.
Documentation for my post above:
The Russian air defence shot down 1 Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter near Gulyai Pole and 4 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Novomikhailovka, Izyum and Kharkov
According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, Russian air defence also shot down two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters near Sumy and Urozhainoe.
April 2 07:33
Early on April 2 air and sea-based weapons destroyed gasoline and diesel fuel storages at the Kremenchuk oil refinery, from which Ukrainian troops in central and eastern parts of the country had been supplied. The refinery is owned by the Ukrainian Oligarch Kolomoisky and processed about 18 million tons of oil per year.
The Shebelinsky oil refinery located near Kharkiv was stopped on February 26 because of the fighting. However, it was not destroyed, so the work there may resume soon. The capacity of the Shebelensky refinery is only 1 million tons of fuel per year.
Air-based missiles have also disabled military airfields in Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk.
At least 4 missiles hit the airfield and part of the air defense in Poltava.
April 2 12:38
Two French Intelligence officers died in the helicopter shoot down in Mariupol.
Operation Compass may help some understand the Russian strategy. Compass was fought in the Western Desert, in 1941, on the Egypt – Libya Frontier and it was this defeat that prompted the Germans to send Erwin Rommel to Africa.
36,000 mobile British against 150,000 immobile Italians. (approx. 1 attacker to 5 defenders)
Once the larger force becomes immobilized, due to lack of fuel, transportation or air support, the mobile force can move around at will and destroy the defenders piecemeal and at their leisure. The battle was fought before Rommel / The Desert Fox arrived in Africa, so it is less well known, but it is well known to military historians and no doubt the Russians.
This was why Zelensky (and so many others) were inexplicably screaming for a “no-fly zone” as that was the only option left to regain Ukrainian mobility… they were not trying to invoke World War III or a nuclear exchange.
And now the Russians will just go around, from stronghold to stronghold, eliminating the Ukrainian units.
I had friends who fought in that battle. There is one major difference; the Italians never really wanted to fight; the Ukrainians are an entirely different proposition. Again many Italian POWs ended up in Australia and many of them stayed here.
A slow hard grind is what I anticipate, just as the Saker states.
Sorry if I gave the impression that Compass guaranteed the surrender of an enemy, it does not. If that were the case then no one would bother with achieving a 3 to 1 attacker to defender ratio. However, by immobilizing an enemy, and being the only force that can move, you can shape the battle field to your liking, as Scott Ritter would say. And if you want an example of where it didn’t work, you can look at Hannibal in Italy, during the Second Punic War, where he had free mobility on the Italian peninsula (because the Romans did not want to risk an open battle after Cannae) but was not capable of breaking the Romans in the fortified cities. So, your best case scenario is Compass and your worst case is Hannibal in Italy. But as your family has personal experience in fighting these kinds of battles you would know better than I about how much time and effort it will take.
As someone said elsewhere, first comment from an irregular is a troll. Send it to trash
On comedy show Southpark, one of Eric Cartman’s most memorable sequences is when someone makes the mistake of giving him a badge, then he runs around bullying everyone around him yelling “Respect My Auth-Orrrrr-it-teeeeee”.
Captures bully, bully America perfectly, and the ‘rules-based-order’. Whenever anyone hears the phrase ‘rules-based-order’, they should picture Eric Cartman on his tricycle. :)
It’s “Respect My Auth-Orrrrr-it-Tiiiiii”.
Respect mah awe-thah-rah-tahh!!
Eric Cartman has very successfully trolled us given the number of responses evoked. Best to ignore such obvious comments. Their objective is to distract misdirect.
Folks, don’t be mad at Eric Cartman. If he didn’t write his thoughts, we would not have read the numerous comedic posts in response.
Thank you to those who made me laugh in what is otherwise a serious forum for intellectuals and non intellectuals alike!
…true, some RU forces may have gone back north, but that doesn’t mean they’ve gone home. The RU must be watching Kiev and uki troop movements from all directions and if they see them doing something weird, could always move in and meet them in the open fields which is much better cause they cannot hide behind civilians there. As it was mentioned in the article, the Ukrainians may have an advantage in the number of soldiers but they lack mobility. It means they’re fully trapped inside Kiev, Odessa, Kharkiev … until the outcome of this war is decided by freeing the Donbas.
Eric Cartman, one day last year, in his speech, Putin said that he liked Kipling’s work. Rumor has it that the code name of Russia’s operation in Ukraine is “Mongoose Throw”. But these are only rumors, as well as the fact that Russian troops retreated from Bucha and other settlements listed by you. There is no reliable information about this, and most of the current media and Telegram channels cannot be trusted. They behave irresponsibly, drive a shaft of momentary clickbait information for infected doomscrolling. And if they are caught in a lie, they make a stupid face and throw up their hands, after which they continue to do the same. Some media outlets have gone further and already refer in their forecasts for Ukrainian events to astrologers and Carpathian magicians molfars (one of them, by the way, predicted the partition of Ukraine).
So, if you take the mongoose Rikki-Tikki-Tavi from Kipling’s book, then this animal, hunting a cobra, first makes several false attacks, and then finishes off the disoriented snake. In fact, it is not known for sure whether the Russian troops have retreated from the Kiev area and where they are being transferred. Only the command of the Russians and the intelligence services of other countries know about this. And if they really retreated, then we will be able to find out what the consequences of this will be only later. The media and Telegram channels only assume and rewrite each other’s rumors. Now you can only trust the media, which analyze the information and give it no more than four times a day. As does The Saker. That’s why I’m here.
Eric Cartman, if I were you, I would follow the wise advice of the Saker, there are other much less intelligent forums on the internet, you would identify with them I am sure.
Hey Eric Cartman,
We seriously underestimated Russia and our propaganda is killing us.
Thank you, Andrei, have a restful weekend.
As for the PR battle, the truth is beginning to burst out:
Upon the viral circulation of the videos showing the Ukrainian torturing Russian POWs, ‘elensky “reminded soldiers to adhere to the Geneva Convention’s guidelines regarding prisoner treatment.”
He probbaly added: “the same way we adhered to the Minsk accord.”
Translation: Don’t be fool enough to film you prowess and publish them next time…
From Intel Slava: https://t.me/intelslava/24121
“Ukraine has informed Britain that it does not intend to comply with the Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Russian Prisoners of War – Russian Foreign Intelligence Service”
Ukr PR: “No we’re totally not doing it!” (turns around and whispers) “Totally do it!”
FDR said in politics there are no accidents. And so it may be in this PR war. In most wars with Russia, the opposition is given the illusion it has won. The enemy then becomes overconfident and over extends. That is when they suddenly find themselves surrounded without ammo and resupply, WW2 Stalingrad.
Now carry this analogy into the current information war.
And also look at the long war from 1980 to 2015. In c.1978 the west decided to abandon detente. Zbig prevailed over Cy Vance. Russia saw this. In time the west appeared to have totally defeated USSRussia, until one day they woke up and Russia had allied with China and had restructured into separate states, reindustrialized and attained military superiority. When things go this well, it cannot be fortuitous. And the act is far from over.
I came across this Wikipedia entry on “The Basic Principles of War Propaganda” by chance.
‘1.1 1. We don’t want war, we are only defending ourselves!
1.2 2. Our adversary is solely responsible for this war!
1.3 3. Our adversary’s leader is inherently evil and resembles the devil
1.4 4. We are defending a noble cause, not our particular interests!
1.5 5. The enemy is purposefully committing atrocities; if we are making mistakes this happens without intention
1.6 6. The enemy makes use of illegal weapons
1.7 7. We suffer few losses, the enemy’s losses are considerable
1.8 8. Recognized intellectuals and artists support our cause
1.9 9. Our cause is sacred
1.10 10. Whoever casts doubt on our propaganda helps the enemy and is a traitor.’
Easy to underestimate Putin and his generals, for they always do the unexpected. I’m sure this was all gamed long ago and as long as it works they will follow the plan that they had set up, as they say if it ain’t broke don’t try to fix it, just tweak it as you go along.!!
The Russian forces would do the unexpected, even the pro-Russian Ukrainian bloggers are getting mixed up. There’d be some interesting news in the weekend, and by Monday, most of the US/UK/Western specialists would be surprised.
It’s not going to be a massive battle – the peacekeepers will simply starve the cauldron out. Sure small bands might escape the cauldron, but they won’t be fighting capable.
The first key is to sever the road junction at Krytvih Rih (spelling ? ) where a Ukie Amoured Brigade is/was HQ’d. The second key is to sever the road and rail junction at Uman.
Watch Kryyvih Rih and Uman
“Watch Kryyvih Rih and Uman”
Everybody is talking about this redeployment east, and that now the full liberation of the Donbass will commence. That makes me wonder, is that really what’s going to happen? Did the Russian general staff really telegraph their battle plan in advance to everyone, including the enemy?
I’m sure they will be some kind of attack in the east, but what had been happening this week, with the partial pull-backs west of Kiev and in the Kherson oblast reminds me of fishing. When you’ve got a big fish on the hook and he’s putting up a mighty struggle, you don’t keep reeling him in all of the time. You make him go back and forth, tiring him out. Only then do you finish it off.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we were to see an advance west of the Dnjepr in conjunction with a (smaller) advance in the Donbass. Although it would probably start a couple of days later.
…..When you’ve got a big fish on the hook and he’s putting up a mighty struggle, you don’t keep reeling him in all of the time. You make him go back and forth, tiring him out. Only then do you finish it of……
Exactly kinda like Judo; hmmm who is decent at Judo ?
You overestimate judo. Fact is that judo is following a very limiting strict set of rules. Outside that strict set of rules there is a lot of ways to finish an opponent. Just have a look at all the other martial arts with their limiting strict set of rules. Even mixed martial arts prohibits certain moves.
But Judo employs a principle that all other fighting arts should learn: when you can use your opponent’s misstep as leverage, you should refrain from using your own strength. This is how a smaller opponent can beat a larger one.
This is the principle that is at work in Putin’s world.
I totally agree with you. This could be yet another feint.
1. That 60K UKR troop concentration is the Donbass isn’t going anywhere. The longer it stays trapped the more it will deteriorate as it runs out of food and ammo etc. Morale must already be a little shaky after the capture of Mariupol. It benefits the Russian military to keep that force fixed in place there and to tempt the UKR military to resupply or even mount some kind of relief force. Any such move would easily be countered by the Russians via their long range firepower including air attacks, artillery and other standoff weapons.
2. If the above is correct, then what might be the real target of Phase 2? A strike to the Western borders of UKR? The payoff doesn’t seem so clear to me. My WAG is they strike to the south west and invest Odessa, cut Ukraine off completely from the entire Black Sea coast and, as a final bonus, link up to the Transnistria enclave on the Western borders of Moldova and which already has a Russian garrison in place.
At this point Russia could offer UKR the most stringent terms of surrender which, if rejected, would lead to Phase III – the final, complete and brutal destruction of that 60k force trapped in the Donbass cauldron.
Well written indeed. I’m not an expert, just a perplexed ordinary russophile, so please elaborate on this:
it is said Russians are moving east some 20% of their forces from around the Kiev, or let’s say of all the deployed in Ukraine, i.e. max. up to 40000 men. So far they helped to pin Ukros away from Donbass.
Question: is there no reserves or other way to add this kind of number from other parts of Russia to both reinforce/decide the fight in cauldron and still keep the presence near Kiev and hold the ground in the north?!
Concerning the Russian air superiority – what about bombing the Ukies on the move?
If there will be a standard positional war in Donbass Russians shall finally unleash their superior modern armament at full power, no mercy at all. Just vacuum bomb and burn the banderanazi scum! 💀
Summary of my concerns: do not leave Russian positions as Ukie army units are already reinforcing the volkssturm presence in some towns near the borders of Russian federation ⚠️, Kremlin should bring more military manpower in as not to make compromises and retreatment which is already promoted as a “peremoga” by the fascist Zelensky’s regime.
Limiting the Russian military operation to (solely liberation of) Donbass is a defeat as it initially was avoided for the obvious reasons from the beginning.
I am pretty sure lots od Russian citizens have the feelings and limited understanding what is actually going on… being afraid of “business” negotiations in the Kremlin cabinets.
Please comment on this.
Totally agree! Russia should just vacuum bomb the 60,000 in the Donbass cauldron and be done with it!
“Everybody is talking about this redeployment east, and that now the full liberation of the Donbass will commence.’
A few weeks ago there was talk of a massive build up in Belarus near Brest. Does anybody know if that was true, or was it just Belarus’ forces? If they are Russia and still there, then that could be a possible option for Russia nobody much is talking about, but it is probably another pinning Ukrainian forces down deployment.
NATO will be well aware of where Russian forces are though. Even so, there is also the large Russian force south of the Kirovgrad region near Krivoy Rog (Russian transliteration, because I think this changing Kharkov to Kharkiv et cetera is pedantic, nationalist BS). Donbas is not Russia’s only option.
There are several options for Russia and all of them keep Ukrainian forces pinned like in chess. I doubt Russia wants to take them all one pawn at a time, but rather it prefers a successful series of moves that do not require such a grind if at all possible — I do not like comparing war to a game, but it gets the point across. Ukraine and NATO can only guess what they will be, as can we.
I can be a bit slow sometimes now I am over the hill. I only just realized today that Ukraine is using Hitler’s strategy of fortress cities. It is a carbon copy. The USSR was forced to deal with them the hard way, because they had no choice but to remove the Nazis. Russia is not forced to do that due to not being up against millions of troops and Russia currently having total air supremacy, so has only taken Mariupol by force — so far. Why would Russia not need to take cities by storm? I do not know, but I guess it might be because they are confident that they can force their political objectives without having to do it (no matter what the BBC says to the contrary).
We have no definite knowledge what their objectives actually are, apart from they want to solve the many problems that Ukraine causes for Russians. De-militarizing and de-nazifying Ukraine can mean a lot of things. It is deliberately vague — unless you have Azov tattoos etc.
However, I doubt Russia is going to hand back the land it now controls and any further land. Not to the current regime at least. All trust is broken.
I am beginning to think that Russia sees Ukraine as an impossibility to exist as a well functioning state. There are too many severe internal contradictions and that is the perfect recipe for a failed state. That has now proven to be the case and we can see it in the rotten fruit that it bears, e.g., a corrupt and poorly performing economy in a country that should be prosperous, two colour revolutions and a civil war that is now a proxy war, nefarious US actively aimed at Russia, and several of most the poisonous forms of national chauvinism and ethnic hatred etc. To Russia Ukraine is like the brother that will not get off heroin and has to be taken to the rehab clinic by force in an intervention (and may lose a few limbs in order to survive at all).
I think Russia may want to create something or things out of Ukraine that can actually work. By asking ourselves what would work and be acceptable to Russia, we can then try to parse that into what Russian goals might actually be. I agree that partition may be a viable option, but I do not know how that could look.
We must also consider that Russia’s power is not boundless. There are limits as to what it can achieve. It can achieve a lot though. NATO is effectively snookered by Russia’s nuclear deterrent and the EU has to now pay rubles.
Post war Ukrainian sentiment is another issue Russia will face. I have seen videos of people in the east calling the Russian army ‘our guys’ and cursing the Ukrainian Army, but there is going to be a lot of anger in parts of Ukraine towards Russia. The West is banking on it in their preparations for the contingency of an endless guerilla war, i.e. Gladio 3.0.
Destroying Russia’s economy and colour revolution is something western leaders have clearly indicated that they want, plus they no doubt have greedy eyes set upon all the resources. Did they not read Russia’s laws on the use if nuclear weapons and the part about existential threat?
It is such a pity blood must be spilled and lives destroyed, but such is the world we live in due to so many unseasonable people gaining power in various places, e.g., neocons, neoliberals and neonazis etc.
Speaking of the West, the USA just cancelled another nuclear missile test citing not wanting to increase tensions. At least some of them may be aware of how high the nuclear war risk is, e.g., not approving a no fly zone is evidence of that. The ones who make the most noise however do not understand nuclear war, or do not care how many die. They appear to want to go all in, or a least are making that bluff (Nixon’s Mad Man posturing hoping to get Russia to retreat?).
I am however beginning to think the current risk of nuclear war rivals the Cuban Missile Crisis. That was a fight about supporting Cuba’s independence and the location of missiles in Cuba and Turkey; all in the context of the wider Cold War at a time when people still took diplomacy seriously in the West instead of grandstanding for the cameras. This was a hot war between a nuclear superpower in Russia and Ukraine a NATO proxy. In a way that is worse. The future of dollar dominated global ‘rules based’ order is threatened and they know it, i.e., unipolar Washington Consensus, i.e., US Empire. Very high stakes and things are moving very quickly. People at the top of the US financial and political system are desperate. They think ruling the world is their manifest destiny and god given right. They are not the types to concede defeat.
There are people in the West who do not seem to accept that things are changing whether they like it or not. The USA and its homage paying vassals can not afford to contain both Russia and China, plus potentially India and Indonesia et cetera, because the power of those allies has increased beyond their means to contain. It is futile and folly to even try.
Both the USA and the UK are at over 100% debt to GDP and are running deficits year after year. They will have to back down and face up to reality, or we may all face the day of nukes being used. Somebody in the West needs to get that through to them, because all the ingredients for nuclear war are now on the table ready for cooking. Let’s get take outs instead.
«I am beginning to think that Russia sees Ukraine as an impossibility to exist as a well functioning state. There are too many severe internal contradictions and that is the perfect recipe for a failed state.»
That is quite wrong: the Ukrainian SSR worked pretty well as a multiethnic, multireligious entity, and the Russian Federation itself is a successful multiethnic, multireligious state, as Putin has said himself. The Russian Federation even fought to defend from Georgian aggression the south Ossetian, an iranian muslim (not russian orthodox) minority just outside its borders, simply because the north Ossetians inside the Russian Federation borders were terrified for their kin in south Ossetia.
The current state of “Ukraine” is that it has been taken over by fascist xenophobe ruthenian “Bandera” fanatics who want to restore the ruthenian kingdom, and perhaps even the polith-lithuanian-ruthenian empire (“prometheism” as in Pilsudski), and even expand it beyond its ancient boundaries to the Don region. The USA and the UK are funding and supporting the ruthenians and prometheists purely to harm Russia, just as the Japanese Empire did in the 1900s.
I wonder if letting time pass & waiting for a ‘starve them out strategy’ to bear fruit, does not incur a lot of other risks?
I dont see how any useful negotiation of peace can be had until the Ukraine regime is demonstrably defeated. The faster defeat is handed down and plain to see, the faster peace can be established. All delays add risk from a strategic perspective & may give Zelensys handlers time to find something that may advantage them.
This was a sombre read, the blood of many good men on both sides will be paying a heavy butchers bill.
Driving through my small town part of the UK today, I was suprised to see the notable number of blue and yellow flags flying from private properties (sub 1%…still a lot of flags) But my casual interactions with people over the last ten days have shown at least 40% to be broadly aware that the western PR narative is a pack of lies. Perhaps 25% are very clued up and in no doubt about what the real origins of the conflict are.
yes I agree, many people simply don’t want to talk about it, they have many other concerns like paying the bills etc. There is a small but very vocal % mostly on social media and in comments sections of newspapers, probably part of the integrity initiative and/or 77th Brigade etc. I would say this propaganda war is being fought in the press and online venues. A lot of virtue signalling but how much REAL support in the UK? I would say well less than 10% nearer to 5 and plenty of quiet people who actually sympathise with Russia but don’t want the hassle of explaning why to a bunch of brain dead children who couldnt point to the Ukraine on a map 3 weeks ago. Sadly your average Brit is easy to brainwash by fake and staged videos and nonsense printed in the press. the junkie zelensky despite stealing $2 billion of his own countrys money and being revealed as such in the Panama Papers has had the hollywood treatment and can do no wrong!
I roughly agree with your 40% and 25% figures.
Not seen one Ukron flag though. Have seen four graffitied Z’s in my town…..and no, i didn’t do them….😏
“Kryvyy Rih, Russian Krivoy Rog, also spelled Krivoi Rog, city, southern Ukraine, situated at the confluence of the Inhulets and Saksahan rivers.” Tripadvisor
I prefer the Russian spelling “Krivoy Rog”. Ukrainian Romanizations can be ridiculous and make things even harder to read for us dyslexic Westerners.
“well, local residents near the Ukrainian positions in the Donbass report that for three days the Russian artillery has been shelling the Ukrainian positions nonstop. ”
There a short video on Southfront’s overview of day 36 which shows a Ukrainian soldier in the Donbass talking about the constant shelling they are under. Unfortunately it’s embedded on their site and I can’t directly link just to the video.
Anyway, even if you don’t understand Russian/Ukrainian, it’s clear from his voice, his tone, his eyes and everything else that this man isn’t merely close to breaking, he probably already has been broken. Now it takes all he has left to try to hold it together.
If his situation is more or less similar to that of most of his comrades (who are under this bombardment), then at least some Ukrainian formations look to be at the end of their (mental) rope.
The Phase 2 War. “THE RUSSIAN ARMY PREPARES FOR ITS BIGGEST OPERATION SINCE WORLD WAR II”
Here is a fascinating document; of course you excuse the form, I work for the substance, the form I do not care, I am not a media but a service.
Large units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbass will be cut into pieces and then destroyed.
Russian troops, as well as units of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), are moving towards each other from the north, east and south, and will be able to soon to close/form a huge cauldron in which the 50,000 men of the Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will be fixed.
These are the most trained units of the Ukrainian army – they have been in the combat zone since 2014, well trained and reinforced. But only the defeat of the AFU in the Donbass will allow us to solve other military and political tasks in Ukraine. How will the offense evolve?
Hudson: ”the sting of sanctions”
Given that Russia is not only fighting Ukraine but the US and NATO as well, then this war must be fought and won outside the Ukraine.
What happens in Donbas is important but less so than the empowerment and finding “will and voice” of India, Pakistan, Syria, UAE, SA, and the rest of Zone B. Also, how well or poorly Zone A hangs together or begins to fragment is critical to the outcome of this war.
Empire is ultimately an illusion, just as is belief in the value of the dollar, or the myth of high-minded and truthfulness of western institutions, or the facade of impartiality of post WW-2 international structures.
The illusion of Western greatness and invincibility is being shattered. This is a momentous historical event. With it the colonial hold that the Anglo Zionist Empire and Europe have had over the world for centuries is dissolving. This struggle for freedom neither began nor ends with Ukraine.
I often think about the bigger picture beyond Ukraine, myself.
I recall a comment from Putin that the Americans and their lackeys are engaging in DDOS and hacking activities against Russian institutions which will not go unpunished… which is tantamount to terrorism against that country.
Then there is the bioterrorism activities which the USA have sponsored but continue to deny any involvement despite solid documented proof being provided by Russia.
None of the above actions can be simply ignored…
Moses, your global geopolitical analyses of the situation is very much to my liking. For me it is the beginning
of the muli-polar global world order where every nation is equal with their own sovereinity.
The geopolitical implications of this conflict are very well analysed.The beginning of a multi-polar world order.
“The equality and sovereignity of nations” quote Lavrov.
Pretty clear, let us prepare for the big battle. I am still not sure if, at the beginning, the Kremlin/MoD sincerely hoped that a consistent part of the army/population in the mostly Russian regions outside the Donbass would stand with Russia; but now it is clear that such hopes were unfounded. Probably they started with a flexible approach, but this situation is the most difficult to find a solution for the aftermath of the war.
Thanks for the update!
I would not call the Ukraine helicopter bombing of the fuel facility inside Russia courageous. It was a desperate and stupid act. Ukraine received no real benefit from it. It showed that helicopters are “all that they have got”. Furthermore, I would say that Ukrainian soldiers, in general, are not courageous. A really courageous Ukrainian soldier would quit or join Russia’s operation. That would take courage! One should not equate fanaticism and a subconscious urge to self destruct with courage. Courage without Intelligence is not courage; it’s Ego.
“The news website Segodnya.ua, however, quoted a Ukrainian military source as saying that the explosion at the terminal occurred “due to negligence, or to conceal someone’s corruption.”
If true, then there seems to be some reluctance in the Ukraine itself to claim responsibility. And it came not long after Russia, via Medinsky, announced progress in the negotiations.
Now ask yourself, who doesn’t want the fighting to stop? Who would want the negotiations to fail, no matter what the cost in slavic lives? Who would have the ability to steer those helicopters around known air defense locations?
Segodnya.ua is not a source you should take seriously
From an RT piece today:
“Kiev has denied any involvement in the overnight attack on an oil depot located on the outskirts of the southern Russian city of Belgorod. Any allegations that it was staged by the country’s military are untrue, Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexey Danilov said late on Friday.
“For some reason they say that we did it. In fact, this is not true at all. We do not comment on this,” the official stated.”
Besides the question of ‘who did it’, if not the Ukrainians, the mere fact that they refuse to claim responsibility is fascinating. You’d expect them to embrace it, given all the previous propaganda the unleashed about massive Russian losses and failed attacks. But they don’t. They seem puzzled by it.
Now I’m puzzled too. Something strange is going on here.
It was not stupid at all, it made the Russians look incompetent, and that is the point.
Konashenkov said “this was a civilian facility not used for military operations” and it is even probably true.
But the footage only shows a lot of flames, and that looks bad.
And to fly at night at low altitude and full speed requires nerves of steel, even in peacetime.
over enemy territory its even harder
look, I hate the Nazis as much as the next guy, but I remind you that the German Nazis or the Spanish ones, for that matter, were very courageous.
And about intelligence, catching your enemy offguard is smart in warfare.
They achieved that too.
Yes, I know, that makes no real difference, but the point is just that, there is NOTHING the Ukies can do to regain the initiative (short of a massive mistake on the Russian part), so ALL they have left is the psychological battle (a kind of псих-атака if you want).
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
Hell, that translated to Virtue Signaling, a Woke Brigade?
Kamikazi was not just Japan. They might go Harikiri!
Yemen has maintained their war effort by periodically making such strikes. They don’t materially change the conflict, but they certainly raise morale at home.
Or to go back to the time when the world was united against fascism and militarism, see Gen. Jimmy Doolittle and the Raid on Tokyo for another such example of an outclassed (at the time) military making a propaganda show of a strike for its value at home. Seems like Churchill bombed Berlin early in the war for a similar reason as well.
Those are all examples of such strikes by sides that appear to eventually reach their goals. I guess that’s the way memory works. I would guess that there are also such strikes that take place during losing campaigns that still don’t change the campaign at all, and are only a blip on the way to defeat.
Doolittle’s raid changed Japan’s strategy and really gave a huge boost to American morale at a time it was losing island after island.
The bombing of Berlin really changed things. Hitler was furious and ordered the Luftwaffe to switch from bombing airfields and airplane support facilities to civilian targets. They had nearly won the Battle of Britain, a few more weeks and they would have finally achieved air superiority that was necessary for Operation Sea Lion to take place.
Instead, the RAF got a break and were able to survive and take a tremendous toll on the Western front supply of Nazi bombers and fighters.
Perhaps the fart sniffers of the West really believe their own lies that Putin is Hitler and will react emotionally and throw out a carefully constructed war plan.
Talking about the war in Yemen…
It is indeed interesting to put both in parallel :
In both case the the attacker has superior weapons, and complete air and sea control;
However, there are also differences :
Saudi Arabia bombs and destroy civilian infrastructure, Russia does not.
Ukraine has political, monetary, and modern weaponry support, in huge amounts, and from powerful superpowers/global organizations; Yemen has not.
Yet, despite all the odds against Yemen, they regularly achieve great successes, not only several attacks on key economic assets in Saudi Arabia, but also military victories on the field, with a LOT of video evidence published.
Yet despite all the support and weaponry Ukraine has, their main success is burning a civilian fuel depot; despite the west media all in full support of Ukraine regime, there is a complete lack of videos showing any military gain, even small. It is to the point that they are using videos of other wars or even from Russian gains, as being theirs.
So, no, I am not that impressed by the Ukrainian attack on a fuel depot in Belgorod.
(remember that, contrary to the delluded West, I know that war is painful; I don’t believe in zero casualties and zero loses;
But, as the song “the tenth battalion” says : “all this only mean one thing: we need another victory; and its cost won’t stop us”.
Russians know that there are costs to attain objectives; but they did the calculation and took the decision).
As for the “PR front”;
I don’t think it is that bad eitther.
It is clearly assymetric; one side lie, cheat, insult, distort, etc;
the other side only tell truths, or shut off.
For people accostumed to the media dominance in the West, it may seem that the side the most noisiy is “wining”; but actually it is most complex than that.
At long term the truth wins.
Also, the West has foolishly destroyed any pretend;
which was its strongest weapon.
A lot of people, not only in the West, but even worldwide, sicerely believed in things like the West being “democracies”, having “freedom” (of speech, of opinion, etc), journalists reporting real facts, the West being tolerant and anti-racist, etc.
Well, all that has been blown up beyond any recovery. And not by Russia, by the West itself.
I see and hear a lot of people, not pro-Russian (they don’t know Russia nor don’t care), but utterly disgusted at the high levels of extreme propagandan lies and racism in the governements and media;
those disgusted hearts and minds are lost for the Empire, probably forever.
I agree with you. It is very important to respect the enemy’s true capabilities. That is not the equivalent of respecting their tactics.
This shows that people saying the Ukrainian air force was mostly destroyed within the first week of the Special Operation were overly optimistic.
Over a month since that Ukrainians have still been sending a fighter planes, bombers and helicopters to attack, and though Russia has shot down most of them that were sent – around 2 or 3 a day – the fact that they had at least 2-3 per day for 30 days shows that probably only 50% of Ukraine’s air force was destroyed in the first week.
I think Russians have underestimated Ukraine. Russians with military background are now saying that Russia has to mobilize in order to defend itself from attacks like Belgorod.
Not being a military expert and not having the information that Russia has, I can not tell if Russia has miscalculated militarily in any way. Although, my bet is that it has Not.
Modern militaries plan and control their operations with “operations orders.” In the U.S. military an operations order (i.e., an “OPORD”) documents and defines all operations top-down through the echelons, by “delegating” military tasks downward through the echelons of subordinate units. In this manner, all tasks are coordinated down from higher commands. The Russian Federation forces have their own version of operations orders.
Part and parcel to any OPORD is the specification of (a list of) tasks to be accomplished. (E.g., “Occupy xxx, NLT nn:nnZ.” Or, “Gain air dominance of area xxx, NLT nn:nnZ.”)
For example, Brigade issues OPORDs to subordinate Battalions, which in turn issue [derived-customized by Battalion] OPORDs to Company, which in turn issue [derived-customized by Company] OPORDs to Platoons, et cetera; from top-to-bottom of the command structure. All of this is derived from the requirements of the top of the chain of command (i.e., President Putin), and those requirements progress from broad to specific, and general to detailed, as the [subsequent] OPORDs are crafted down through the chain of command, echelon by echelon.
So here’s the point: success or failure of any mission is defined by whether or not a particular set of tasks within an OPORD were completed, regardless of what we spectators believe should have happened.
This applies to the information war OPORDs as well: were the tasks listed in the OPORD completed? Yes or no?
If one does not have access the OPORDs, then one can only speculate in a vacuum; as with the “speculation” that Russia is losing the information war.
I was the assistant S-3 (operations) with the 2d Brigade 101st Airborne Vietnam in 1968-69. Operating orders are only a guideline. The overarching operative command to all units was simple:
Find the enemy. Pull back. And put the shit on them.
That does not work well when the enemy clings close to you. That is why the first and most important job is to find the enemy.
When you have air, artillery and naval superiority, you let the bombs and big shells do the job. Otherwise, it is a war of attrition (infantryman vs infantryman).
I have no idea what is happening on the ground in the Ukraine, other than what I read here and on a couple of other websites. But, I know what happened to us in Vietnam;
There were no POW camps for GIs. We got every wounded and dead GI off the battlefield ASAP. Otherwise, the enemy would give the wounded a bullet in the brain and booby-trap the bodies. This is the reason why we fought so hard.
We Americans took prisoners alive. We did what we could to relocate civilians from the battlefield. But the battlefield was ever shifting. Vietnam was not a hold ground and accumulate territory war.
The overarching objective was to kill the enemy with bombs and big guns and find and destroy his weapons caches.
All for what? An ex Phantom F4 US Navy pilot I met in Hong Kong years later explained they dropped more bombs in grid patterns in the S China Sea than on t,he Viet Kong. Specialized vessels recorded the shock waves on the sea floor in search for hydro carbons, which the found in mass. Maybe that’s why the not so dumb Murika is today so friendly to them.
helicopters are not “air forces”
and Russia is NOT mobilizing, listen to Martyanov’s video
‘helicopters are not air forces’
Be careful not to fall into the trap of ‘situating the estimate’.
Its my personal opinion that the alleged incursion & attack on hydrocarbon infrastructure site near Belgorod was a piece of Russian маскировка (Maskirovka). Following the rapidly developing events after the downing of Ukr Aviation assets leaving Maripol (which would indicate operations there are drawing to a conclusion) Ru Military focus now shifts to eliminating Ukr Forces in the so called ‘Donbass Caldron’.
The Belgorod incursion & aviation attack gives Russia the casus belli to pursue this next phase with extreme prejudice.
The Mi-24 attack was even captured on local CCTV installations – just to make sure we could all identify what happened. Very convenient. Ukrainian media denies everything as does the Govt (regime?).
Not for one minute am I criticizing Russia here – far from it – I am just suggesting that they might be playing the West at their own game. And why not? It would not be before time & in doing so would have affected no other Nation State but their own & therefore not acted illegally?
I cannot for one minute believe that Russia does not have a good air picture of the entire situation over the Ukraine 24/7.
Once again my opinion, just that.
Interesting comment. Twice I have read this assertion but your assertion provides the reason.
Russian conscripts not taking part in Ukraine military operation, Kremlin assures
Russia’s spring army draft kicked off on April 1
Under a decree by the Russian president, 134,500 conscripts will join the Russian Armed Forces this spring. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has affirmed that the conscripts will not be sent to hotspots, while all the conscripts from last year’s spring draft will be discharged from active duty once their military service term expires and sent home.
The winter army draft is on October 1. (Mr. A.Martyanov)
“I think Russians have underestimated Ukraine”
Take another look at the above map and consider this is just Day 36 of the SMO.
NastyNato bombed Belgrade for 78 consecutive days and nights before Serbia eventually gave in.
78 consecutive days and nights!….and that was just one city.
Russia doesn’t do ‘shock and awe’. If it did Ukraine would have been turned into smouldering ash within 24 hrs.
I look forward to seeing what the above map will look like after Day 78.
As for Belgograd, one missile hits Russian territory and the doom & gloom merchants are out in force again. Do the optics look good?…..No.
Will it be relevant in the greater context of the SMO?…..No. Ukron tanks rumbling towards Moscow?!!…..jeez.
yes, but NATO is a joke
so being “better than NATO” is hardly an achievement.
But point taken on the bombing of Kosovo – it was a total failure.
Serbia didn’t give in. Washington begged for a face saving exit. Close reading of 1244 is the evidence
Washington and other (ex) colonial powers then proceeded to violate 1244.
Milosevic was told that if he didn’t surrender that Bel Grade would be carpet bombed and 500,000 people would be killed. The empire meant it, Milosevic did the right thing.
Serbian military was largely untouched by NATO bombing.
They “surrendered” for other reasons.
Right. At this point the Ukrainian forces are not all destroyed. The personel is still alive. They are just neutralized.
The only reason why the Ukrainian government didn’t agree yet to a negotiated outcome is NATO/US who wants the thing to morph into undercover warfare. All the US wants is chaos.
Putin needs to convince the Ukrainians that the US won’t help and that the US is not the friend the Ukrainians hoped for. He wants everyone alive.
Maybe don’t demonize nationalists. Recognize the military valor of Ukrainian soldiers but limit the nationalism to the native Ukrainian areas and make them admit they were fooled and abused by a foreign country.
«Maybe don’t demonize nationalists. Recognize the military valor of Ukrainian soldiers but limit the nationalism to the native Ukrainian areas and make them admit they were fooled and abused by a foreign country.»
There is a gigantic misunderstanding about “Ukraine” that was created by soviet politics: the Ujkraine historically was the Kharkov-Dnipro-Kherson-Odessa area. The soviets added to it southern Ruthenia (western Ruthenia went to Belarus) taking it from Poland, and called the whole “Ukrainian SSR” (and they did not ethnically cleanse Ruthenia).
The Bandera nationalists are not “ukranian” nationalists, they are (fascist, xenophobic) ruthenian nationalists, seeking to impose ruthenian rule and language and religion over the whole ex-ukrainian SSR area, ethnically cleansing away the russian, hungarian, greek, rusyn, romanian minorities. From their point of view it was not Ruthenia that was annexed to the Ukraine after WW2, but it was Ukraine, Transcaparthia, Bessarabia that were annexed to Ruthenia.
A handful of helicopters is not the same thing as an ‘air force’.
In the US system, the battlefield helicopters are under US Army control, and not under the US Air Force. This is not a quirk, but indicative that they are different things and have different roles on the battlefield.
In modern warfare, there are extreme offensive capabilities when compared to earlier wars. A side can sneak in a missile or a few helicopters and do a lot of damage because of the firepower of modern weapons. This means that in modern war, you’ll never get through it with ‘the enemy never landing a glove on you’. This mass destructive power of modern weaponry says that you are going to get hit and you are going to be hurt.
In this case, a small number of helicopters flying nap-of-the-earth is hard to stop. And when they get to their target, they carry enough missiles and firepower to make a mess. Its hard, if not impossible, to go through a fight without getting hit like this. But it won’t decide the war.
…are now saying that Russia has to mobilize in order to defend itself .. poorly informed comment.. 2X a year Russia. (EVERY year), recruits 130,000 conscripts. It’s ‘April’, you know the one that comes after March and before May?
i’m Romanian and i’ll tell you..If they do no cut off Ukrayne in half and If the russkie do no take Harkov, Dniepro and Odessa they have lost the war. sorry for bad english..
If Russians take any big city and village in area where more people hate them then love them it would be ocupation and it’s disaster for long period,maybe forever.Remember Afganistan,it’s war lost before start.
Any place east of Dniper river and Odessa oblast will welcome Russia and vote this very spring to join Russia.
In the rest of Ukraine there might be some contrasted picture especially the more you go west.
Nazionalists might predominate in Lvov/ Lemberg, Ivano-Frankovsk, Lutsk, Rovno.
Kiev, Zhitomir, Vinitsa: expect mixed opinions.
If Russia plays well (abolish all debts for individuals and sell NG at Russian price = 1/3 of Ukraine’s price, it might win the heart of people).
А кто вам сказал что война СССР в Афганистане была проиграна ?
Все задачи ВС СССР были выполнены и войска по плану были выведены.
Mod: I need you to follow the rules and provide a translation if you want to post.Moderation is too busy these days to always do that for you.And your posts may not be posted.
And who told you that the USSR’s war in Afghanistan was lost?
All the tasks of the USSR Armed Forces were completed and the troops were withdrawn according to the plan.
I consider that a reasonable assessment. East of the river and Odessa will leave a land locked rump state for West-Ukraine. The majority of the agriculture, coal, industry and the second largest gas field in Europe (Norway is biggest) will all be part of Russia or allied with it.
Ukraine should give the stolen land at west back to Poland…also the stolen one from Hungary to Hungary … same for Romania, back to Romania.
Have a good rest. Your work is much appreciated, but don’t risk your health.
Russia switching to most powerful weapons short of nuclear according to Ninjamonkey.
Am reading messages ( Google translate) on #Russian language boards on
asking civilians to leave any #Ukraine controlled cities in & around the #Donbass . #Russians talking about strategic attacks using most powerful explosives short of #nuclear .
Phase 2 coming
Ninjamonkey 🇮🇳 Retweeted
Russians With Attitude
He also says that the Ukrainian helicopter attack on Belgorod “changes the tone of the negotiations”
How many people inside each cauldron?
It seems unavoidable a second Mariupol.
Russia still has friends in the US — probably more than you know. BTW, look for the petrodollar to go first. Then the dollar reserve. Then the unipolar, incredibly dangerous geopolitical order. Multipolar means more justice and peace. (See Mckinder theory of Eurasianism.) “Let’s go Putin!
I am not an expert in Air Defense, but it seems to me that a Civil Air Patrol along the Border can spot the Ukronazi Choppers entering Russian Air Space and can be made aware of Russian Choppers in the area beforehand and then spot enemy Choppers crossing the Border. Do the modern Russian Choppers sound different than the old Ukrot Choppers? I have no idea because I’m not an expert..
I’ve seen these kinds of comments enough that i will now provide a simple answer:
1. The world is not flat. You’re all assuming that defenders can see everything 360 degrees up to the horizon. They cannot, especially in urban areas or in mountainous areas.
2. A military battlefield does not look like in your realtime-strategy wargames. Occupied areas do not have soldiers and airdefenses around every streetcorner within 100km radius. This would require hundredthousands of air-defense units. Instead defenses are spread out in order to cover a large area.
3. Unlike in videogames, radar and IR cannot look through obstacles like infrastructure, hills or mountains.
4. Go to censortube and search for “nap of the earth”.
5. The helis in the mentioned scenario spent only 6 minutes across the border. It was a quick “hit and run”.
Russia should have expected an attack on their territory. I am amazed that Russia did not dig a long and deep trench along the border and a hill and a wall and minefields maybe a canal too. These are one time investments that hold their value and are low maintenance. Spice it up with camera’s, military and air defense. I i were king i would order my borders to be like that plus a lot more. In 8 years you can dig a lot.
To divide the Ukraine would be the worst decition for russia because the Nazis would rise again in the rest of the land.
Well, I suppose, Russia will be able to defeat Ukrainian army in the East and occupy 1/2 of Ukraine.
But what if Zelensky and co wouldn’t negotiate even then and just organize guerilla war.
Ukrainians are brave, they are ready to die for American dream, ready to die to be “loved by The west”.
It must be a big deal, die for a civilization they consider so superior.
What to do with such fanatical enemy?
Are there any historical examples of such situations?
The russians will have to go all the way to Lvov(phase 4). Phase 2-Donbass, phase 3-Nikolaeev and Odessa phase 4 Kiev and the Western part which has a little ukranian standing army. The russians can bring more trops. Then put another leader în Kiev. If that doesn t work just bomb the all country, destroy all it s infrastructure, close all the nuclear plants, poison the fields so the EU will have millions of refuges, destroy all the water suply, sent Ukraine into the neolitic era. In other words to make sure that Ukraine wont be able to make even a cardbox not to mention weapons to threaten Russia. Between LNDR and the rest of Ukraine a massive demilitarize zone with millions of mines and big ass rockets. If the ukranians want to be suicidal and don t give a shit for their children s future then they will stop having a country. F**k em.
Then [Russia can] put another leader în Kiev.
It’s never that simple. Whoever takes command of the Ukraine, of the remnants, will need as much legitimacy as they can get. Russia is probably not going to stupidly plop someone into running Kiev. The worst part is that there are no suitable candidates in sight. None of the political circles in Kiev have legitimacy. Many authentic Ukrainian patriots were murdered by Nazis – probably under direct orders from the West. I think Russia will need to create a slow process which enables fresh leaders to appear and to be confirmed by Ukrainians in their legitimacy. So this is going to be a big headache for Russia, and a long tough road for Ukrainians.
The worst part is that there are no suitable candidates in sight. None of the political circles in Kiev have legitimacy.
In case you missed it, see this account of how Zelensky repressed the pro-Russian political opposition (straight from the horse’s mouth i.e. Time Magazine). It is about the repression and arrest of pro-Russian opposition politician Medvedchuk.
See also Oliver Stones’ follow up documentary to Ukraine on Fire (2016) titled Revealing Ukraine (2019). It has extensive interviews with Medvedchuk.
I read somewhere that Medvedchuk recently escaped from house arrest in Kiev.
You’re confusing Russian morality and ethics with that of the criminally insane US!
Yes, history has examples of “mopping up” the hold-outs. (1) Ukraine in the 1920’a after Makhno’s Black Army of anarchists was defeated. (2) Ukraine after the Nazi defeat in WW2, fighting the “stay-behind” forces commanded by former Wehrmacht General Gehlen. (3) Chechnya after the triumph of the forces under Khadyrov, although that was a piece of cake because the terrorists were widely seen as dishonorable, while the Chechens take their religion very seriously. (4) The rural areas of Syria where the terrorists left stay-behind cells, such as Dahiyah near Jordan where some cells sprang back to life two or three times, and each time whole villages were surrounded until the terrorists were arrested. Mopping up usually takes many years and serious determination.
“On a personal note, I” I was a soldier in the US Army in Germany in the late 70’s. I returned to my former base, an air defense unit, in Y2K. There was a padlock on the TAC site, but inside all of the buildings were intact, being Germany, not one broken window. It was summer, and it had rained that morning. The weeds, growing waist high were in flower, and the flowers sparkled with dew reflecting the warm light. I felt so happy that the future of the world looked bright.
If I had to fight Russians then, I would have. If I have to fight Russians now, I will. I’m no “peace fag.” On the other hand, I was thrilled at the Russia/America cooperation on the International Space Station. I dream of how Russia, China, All the Americas, All of Europe, All of Asia, All of Africa can/could one day build a planet of grace and capable of expanding our civilization into space.
However, we have this ongoing hangover of hatred, much deserved, of course. The hatreds will continue, we’re intensifying them, now. How can we correct this, if we’re all hate, hate, hate, fear, fear, fear……. ??? Why, when the future could be so bright, are we doubling down on the sins of the past? Only soldiers who have been enemies can do something about this.
So, my thesis is war is stupid, but don’t ‘f’ with me – so who is f’ing with everybody – and let’s get that straightened out.
“who is f’ing with everybody” ?
u.s. Imperialism is f’ing with everybody.
– Old Man in California
I also was a soldier in the late 70’s in Germany. Tactical Pershing missile unit, 56th Brigade F.A. Had the big show gone down back then I wouldn’t have had much say in the matter. However today in my later years of life I have had a chance to review and analyze the situation. I would not fight the Russians no matter what one says. I will even go one further and say it’s the American government who is responsible for this carnage about to be unleashed in the Donbass. American has become something I can’t even recognize anymore, trans this, gender indenty, military spending, totally bankrupt morally, pedophile president and I could go on. Russian is in my opinion fighting for the free world, not the new world order of the Davos WEF crowd. Slava Russia 🇷🇺
Bravo! I agree completely. The enemy is whoever is controlling the globalists. I fear our government (USA) is beyond redemption. Nobody I know wants WW3 with Russia over Ukraine, even if they are duped by the MSM into thinking Zelensky is some kind of democratic hero and are totally ignorant of Ukraine’s provocations in the Donbass since 2014.
Amen brother. Am. govt has (IMO) become totally corrupted – bribed, brainwashed and/or blackmailed. What’s worse; it can’t be fixed. Going to have to collapse under it’s own weight.
Isn’t it cheaper to use TU 22 bomber then artillery?
I don;t understand why Russia is not using bombers and used them in Syria.
Dumb bombs from aircraft are not precise and civilians could be killed. Smart bombs are almost as costly as guided missiles. Artillery is very accurate and relatively cheap. Plus, it would be a propaganda victory if a Tu-22 were to be shot down. In Syria, there was less need for accuracy because entire areas were, to use the US term, “free fire zones”. Also, in Syria the distances were often great and outside of artillery range.
Mind you the Russians are angry, very much.
The biggest and best chunk of Russian forces is awaiting N.A.Z.O.
If they entered Ukraine it’d be swift, brutal and burning hot in the extreme.
Terribly humiliating too…
I bet the end game is NovoRussya.
I also think it will be Novorossiya along the Shitomir line, a big chunk of oblasts, from day one of smo the map was screaming what it wants to look like!
The conflict in Ukraine is slowly approaching its peak, at least the peak of the first stage of the confrontation — the battle for Donbass. We foreshadowed on March 28 that the situation was developing in such a way that we should expect a partial or complete withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces from the North of Ukraine and their transfer to the Eastern Front. All this has been happening for the last couple of days. We do not know whether this was the original strategy of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation or it is a transformation of the original plan in an attempt to correct the tactical mistakes of the company, but this is not the point, because in this situation it is the only right decision.
On February 24, the Russian Armed Forces entered Ukraine from two sides: the Northern and Southern directions, and the DPR and LPR Armed Forces began to break through the eastern front and try to reach their borders. If in the South the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was easily broken through, and the population did not show any resistance, then in the North the situation was less rosy. Nevertheless, the Russian Armed Forces managed the main thing — to bind the forces in the North and not give them the opportunity to be transferred to the east. Meanwhile, in the South, the front moved to Mykolaiv, and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were able to take control of practically the entire South, not counting the Odessa and Mykolaiv regions, while the same task was completed — to shackle forces. At the same time, we watched for a month how the military infrastructure, airfields, logistics, equipment, and so on were systematically destroyed. The bombing never stopped. Kiev already recognizes at the official level that from this point of view they have suffered irreparable damage. In addition, Kiev, thinking that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will continue to attack the cities of Central Ukraine and Kiev, destroyed almost all easily accessible logistics routes, undermined bridges and mined roads. Given the change of priorities of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Kiev itself has complicated logistics at times. There is practically nothing left of the maneuverability of the APU.
Nevertheless, the main battle is ahead. It is the battle for Donbass that will determine the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine. And not only the outcome of this battle, but also the duration of the battle.
From Telegram Intel slav
I am curious to know if Russia will start “testing” its most advanced weapons during Phase 2, i.e. will the T-14, Su-57, MiG-35, TOS-1, and/or S-500 make their combat debuts. Also, if 60-80’000 Ukrainian troops are so well fortified will the Russian forces be willing to carpet bomb and have tire-to-tire artillery bombard the entire cauldron?
You’d better hope S-500 doesn’t make its combat debut, because the only way that would be needed is if NATO became directly involved.
SU-57 and MIG-35 seem pointless to me in phase two, since russia already has air dominance. This war is already past the phase where those high-tech toys are useful. Plus AFAIK only a few SU-57 and MIG-35s have been built yet.
Could they “test them” just for giggles? Sure. Would it make a functional difference in the war? No.
Deploying MiG-35s & Su-57s would be useful for testing ground attack subsystems, & marketing. Same for S-500, especially if NATO deploys any AWACS or B-2s over Ukrainian airspace.
All IMHO of course…😜
This is heartbreaking. ” They” managed to put brother against brother to fight to death.
Of course Ukrainian s are brave, resourceful, capable and strong – after all they are Slavs …How did we get to the point that they will fight Russians with determination?
Well, you could say that this SMO is, in reality, a gigantic Russian civil war pitting southern Russians against northern Russians. And the more Russians die, the happier will the Empire of Lies be.
as for why? more than a CENTURY of brainwashing, INCLUDING under the CPSU regime…
Thank you commies, you left A LOT of Nazis after your “brilliant” rule!
«a gigantic Russian civil war pitting southern Russians against northern Russians. And the more Russians die, the happier will the Empire of Lies be.»
It is more slav against slav: ruthenians against russians, with “malorussians” (Donbas etc.) in the middle. Anyhow nothing new: the serbo-croat wars were between orthodox serbians (serbs) against catholic serbians (croats), both speaking the same language.
Tako je.A cilj tih ratova je da se istrebe pravoslavni slovenski narodi.
Yandex translation. Mod:
Hear, hear. And the goal of these wars is to exterminate the Orthodox Peoples of Slovenia.
Thank you M, for expressing the human catastrophe! It is brother against brother and nothing is sadder than that!
if there is a conflict between brothers and if brothers hate each other they hate each other totally. This is known a small example. a friend of mine had twin girls from the same egg cell. when the girls were playing somewhere even at a small distance even both parents could not make out who is who. later when they grew up they started hating each other and had to be kept separately. now they are middle aged and still cannot meet.
In ukraine indoctrination has gone too far. Generally Russian cannot consider the others as brothers anymore. with exceptions of course
Macron got real worked up about evacuating someone from Mariupol it seems. I wonder if the French commanders he didn’t want to see found or captured during the final liberation so very much were on one of the destroyed helis or managed to run away after all. Wonder who exactly might’ve been on those in general. I’m sure high command on both sides knows exactly who though.
Ranks and shoulder stars going to rain over the dumb situation with Belgorod. Could and should have been prevented, but it seems the local command did not take things seriously. The border and all key sites should have been guarded by MANPADs against low fliers, not just theatre air defense. They had better do it now. And there’d better be a return strike on some West Ukraine installations overnight.
At least it’s going to help justify not making concessions in negotiatons. Because the Russian public is already fuming at the very idea of negotiating with the same authorities that gleefully authorize war crimes against civilians and POWs as SOP without even hiding it, then act like they’re saints. There’s going to be hell to pay if the war ends with some sort of deal that keeps the Banderists in power, no matter how restrained and bound by treaties. We all know treaties are worth nothing anymore, not with the West and its lackeys at least, past 10 years should have taught everyone that – they certainly did to the Russian common man watching the events. Only way that will be acceptable to the Russian people is if the current authorities are ousted and kicked out to Lemberg and given to the Poles to play with, or further still, and someone else, anyone who hasn’t been in the junta power structure, is given the reins. Only then will denazification be complete. Russians are fine with some form of Ukraine existing past this war, but not under Banderists, and any negotiated peace with those will feel like a colossal defeat, a “drain” as it is called. And any territory the Russian and LDNR forces don’t take away from their state, it would be hell on earth in, the Ukies would exterminate anyone who so much as speaks Russian at home, has relatives in Russia they haven’t forsaken in notarized writing, or thought positively about Russians once.
I personally don’t want Russia to take in all those freeloaders from outside LDNR that were happy to “jump” Maidan style for 8 years, and even from their occupied parts. I’d rather they were their own country under Russia’s protectorate – they have not earned the right to be Russian citizens with all the benefits. But neither can they be left to the mercy of any government like the current Ukie one. The only place I’m fine with leaving them in is the Austro-Hungarian parts of West Ukraine, all those Banderastan areas. Everything else needs to be placed under different governments altogether, but not added to Russia proper, not until years down the line at the very least.
Technically, Yanukovych never stopped being the real President of Ukraine. He’s still the actual President of Ukraine, albeit in exile. Putin should simply eliminate the faker Zelensky and reinstall the actual President of Ukraine. All roads lead to 2014.
God forbid Yanukovitch is back in power. Yanukovitch was what is called “thief in law” – вор в законе. His ambiguous stand on the place of Ukraine in the world was one of the reasons, although not the most decisive one, that so many people in Ukraine initially did not fight against the coup in 2014. One of the major miscalculations in the Russian plan before Feb. 24 was that the old pro Russian elite ( or rather “pro Russian”) will support the Russian military operation. They did not, including Yanuk. One exception – Oleg Tsariov. That is why the plan now needs to be changed.
The U.S. went to Putin the day before the coup and asked him if he would prevent the Ukrainian army from attacking the “protesters”. Putin agreed. This meant at the time Putin had enough power over the Ukrainian president to have him have the army stand down.
Later in an interview, Putin said he was “tricked”.
I don’t know how you can blame Yanukovitch when it seems that Putin advised/warned him not to allow the army intervene.
“Putin was tricked…” I truly hope Putin is not tricked again.
No. You would want to give the population new hope. Hope for a brighter future. Therefore, do not employ has been politicians of the newly named lands.
Ensure corruption is a characteristic of politicians of the former Ukraine.
From – Intel Slava Z
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡APPEAL TO THE RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTH-EAST, especially Donbass (living in the territories controlled by Bandera)
We always say what we think is the truth, no matter how hard it may sound. Today we urge you to leave your homes and go in any safe direction.
We think that the battle for the liberation of Donbass will be hard, the Nazis will hide in the cities and will hide behind the civilian population. It is necessary to wrest this trump card from their hands. We admit that the most modern types of non-nuclear weapons can be used against the Bandera people who have settled in urban areas. There may be casualties among civilians. The best solution is evacuation
In this post, we are not joking, and we consider it important to warn as many people as possible about the impending danger. Please take care of yourself and your loved ones and move to a safe place!
I am surprised those Dnipro bridges are still standing. Once cut, the east falls and quickly. I assume they expect to conquer all of Ukraine and thus prefer the bridges standing.
Logically, the Russians would keep all of Ukraine east of Dnipro and the entire coastline. The Dnipro is a significant defensive obstacle and taking the coastline ensures Ukraine has no navy or base, no foreign naval forces have access to a port and must deal with Russia for sea trade.
The performance of the Ukrainian army is surprisingly good especially when you consider their poor performance in the Donbass. Better on defense than offense or defensive technology has surpassed offensive technology significantly. Probably a bit of both.
Hi guys and gals,for me is hard to believe,that 2 helikopters enter across Russia border and hits whatever to be.
I realy doubt small bird can fly over boreder,without detected.Smoke and mirors my friends.
Alright Mr. Armchair General.
Meanwhile in reality: https://youtu.be/nPnNaaEilwk?t=14
Yes they can! The russians do the same all the time. If you don’t know anything about radar technology, and think anything flying just magically pops up on a videogame minimap, ask questions instead of making statements about stuff you know nothing about.
The last 4 weeks, Russia is deliberately showing weakness. Soon, we will know why.
I think it wants to attract more weapons from the EU to Ukraine where they can be tracked and destroyed.
This way, the future military operations in Europe (Poland, Baltic states and Germany) will be easier.
This is a geopolitical game between some very clever NWO Spooks and a Russian Chess Master. Unfortunately for the Russians and Putin would likely understand this, Russians lost the moment they were forced to enter the Ukraine (Ukrainians lost even more so). IMO this is about shifting pieces on the geopolitical chess board, Ukraine is a sacrificial piece for what comes next. Best case, by the time this phase ends Russia will return to its cave with or without Ukraine or parts of it, (it maters not), Europe will likely be diminished and looking to secure its energy future, the US war hawks will be suggesting they found the solution to Europe’s energy future in the middle east and the next great war will be primed. Syria, Iran and Lebanon will be in the sights to complete the pentagon aspirations of 7 countries, Zionists greater Israel and the NWO shifting power away from the US empire to a new technocratic capital. Its a plan I believe will fail but unfortunately for the world it doesn’t mean they won’t try.
I hate the way the events are evolving, and by that I mean that it turned out that the population of Ukraine is so profoundly nazified, it will resist Russian attempts to clean things up and introduce high-level order basically to the last man, woman and child. This means that America is getting their wish, that the Russians and the Ukrainians will keep killing each other, and only they will benefit. So, instead of that 60000 Ukrainian soldiers surrendering, they will have to be wiped out. Also, if the western Ukraine is left intact, it will become a constant thorn in Russia’s side, and it would be actually strategically better to pulverize Kiev and Lvov than to leave them intact as places where all kinds of pro-western whores can contemplate new and inventive ways of harming Russia, such as that new idea of spraying viruses from drones, or that failed attempt that ended up in Zagreb instead of Moscow. Sooner or later they will manage to make a nuclear device and detonate it in Russia, and the only way of preventing that is what America did to Iraq – reduce it to rubble, decivilise it and thus make it incapable of waging technologically sophisticated warfare. But doing that in Ukraine is such a colossal waste, because that needs to happen to America, not Ukraine. Ukraine is just a country that didn’t have Putin to pull it out of the misery of the 90s, but America is a serpents’ nest and that’s where one needs to make a great number of glass parking lots.
Salient point. The post on Ukrainian fascism couldn’t fit in the UON-UPA connection, but the fact of the matter is that the UK/US/CAN saved the worst impulses of Ukrainian nationalism. It nurtured it for decades. And then it seeded back into the country with the perfect environment for the infection to fester. Fascism is most successful when simple people are downtrodden; it offers simple solutions and the release of hatred. I ask other Americans, “if Ukraine was so important to us, why haven’t we helped Ukrainian live a decent life? Why is the country still mired in poverty and corruption?” Because that lack of development made Ukraine perfect for the evil we kept alive all these years. We put it in power purposefully. We nurtured it some more and armed it to the teeth.
And as you said, the whole point for the US/UK/CAN was for Slavs to kill Slavs. That’s the “grand strategy”, just as many dead Slavs as is possible.
Is anyone besides me skeptical of the idea that Ukraine had not one but two helicopters in sufficient condition to conduct a cross border raid into Russia? I would find it easier to believe it was an American missile attack being credited to Ukraine to encourage them not to surrender.
I’m not really surprised, because it makes sense – the Russians didn’t really plough Ukraine and salt the earth; helicopters are easy to hide, and they can be flown very low, hiding under the terrain to avoid radar detection, and that’s actually the only viable way to do it. In Croatia we did it with MIG 21s in 1995; the guys flew under 50m and avoided all detection; the Serbs thought they were American stealth fighter-bombers. :) So no, that’s not the problem, or something that would make me suspicious. My problem is that the Russians tried to play nice with the Ukrainians, they tried not to destroy their country and treated them like brothers, basically, and the Ukrainians are absolutely bursting with murderous hatred that motivates not only this attack, but also those disgusting abuse of POWs. So, what I’m really afraid of is that the Ukrainians will actually force Russia’s hand and cause their own total annihilation. What I do hope is that the Brits and the Americans pay for it all, with interest.
According to Russian official sources, the Ukies have about half of their helicopters left, 70 or so.
Helos are easier to hide
How many of those 70 are airworthy? Nobody knows.
Long ago I was in an aviation battalion, UH1 and UH60. Those machines are maintenance intensive. Russian machines undoubtedly are more practical.
But, you get about 3 to 5 sorties without maintenance. After that things start degrading, and the risk of catastrophic failure starts to rise.
Ukraine will not he able to keep doing such missions.
You forgot underground, the tunnel systems. Odessa, for exmpl, has the largest u-complex in europe.
is there a tunnel going from Lvov to Kramatorsk?
I did not know that.
For whatever reason this article certainly brought out the ID-10-T’s
I think I’d take a month off and despair that we certainly have evidence that the ‘Age of Reason’ is over.
Thanks for this blog, and your efforts.
Do not despair !!
Reading this blog is -in itself- the proof, that everything can get better.
Even our ID !
Hello Saker, i dont know and i cant proove it, but i hear about gigantic deep state tunnel systems around the world all the time and it sounds logic to me. But maybe it’s one level above humans fighting humans, or i’m just naive..
I offer my apology in advance.
What is Russia doing?
It is always the big question. I observed a bit with round 1 in Ukraine and watched Syria with intensity. If there is one requirement for understanding their moves, an absolute requirement, it is to KNOW their methods and resulting manifestation of actions are holistic. They don´t disconnect anything. If you don´t understand this, that is fine. It has taken a long time for me to realize it. If you are going to complain, then just stay lost and don´t get mixed up in traffic. Much safer.
The battlefield is only one aspect of the whole, PR is another, as is Economics/Diplomacy. They all move in unison. It is not necessary for all to come up green, wins. Sometimes, it is better if one or more of them appear to be failures. It is only important that all are in play. Militarily Russia wins hands down. A gutsy, thorough plan indeed. I tip my hat. It will be fun to watch it all the way through. Economics/Diplomacy ………. pffft, Russia got them to walk right into the quicksand, while warning them for years as to the location of the trap. They played it straight up and right in their face and the Occidentals did not see it coming. Again, the hat tips.
The biggest move, in terms of absolutely playing the West, was to encourage them to going hog wild and right over the cliff with the PR. This was the true masterpiece. The biggest weakness in the West is not the gear, debt, or other stuff. It is the arraogance. The Russian government, with all branches working in uniscon, even relying on all of the Western assets planted deep into them, has led Occidentals to go full Monty while voluntarily drenched with gasoline and lit on fire. It would have been more difficult if the PR campaign had not gone into full mode at full power. Paper burns fast.
So, now what the West going to do?
Simply put, they need to back off. Permenantly back off. Those guys are going to have to swallow some pride here. Get the goofballs messing with Russia out of the picture. I know it can´t be today or tomorrow but, it can start. Just get them out to pasture, no need to get rough. I can see the prep for this lining up. This is not too visible but, it is starting to show. And you know, I am always the last guy to see it. Not being connected to anything or anybody, does have its´advantages.
It is not fear. God always has has my back and at times I have no clue why. But, hasn´t there been enough? Enough of all of it? And if doing something for the little guys does not turn you on, I think if more compassion, more respect was the norm, you guys could actually make more money being nicer. Think about it. Is this not a hassle?
I said my piece, I haven´t done it in a while. I wish the best to all, except those having way to much fun, hurting people who have nothing to do with it. It needs to stop.
Do not misunderestimate this :
Sanctions contre la Russie, le hara kiri européen
this kind of ‘thing’ is beyond most people’s coprehension today.
Re the troops in the Donbass cauldron:
First, a little Tsun Tzu:
7. MANEUVERING 36
When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is “to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair.” Tu Mu adds pleasantly: “After that, you may crush him.”
Do not press a desperate foe too hard.Ch`en Hao quotes the saying: “Birds and beasts when brought to bay will use their claws and teeth.” Chang Yu says: “If your adversary has burned his boats and destroyed his cooking-pots, and is ready to stake all on the issue of a battle, he must not be pushed to extremities.”
The Ukies are surrounded, trapped with no way out. They are also well dug in.
That said, it appears that one part therein is Nazi enforcers who kill any waverers or deserters and without them it is quite likely that non-fanatic troops might at this point want to surrender. This is the group that needs to be given an exit. For example:
‘If you rise and overcome your Nazi thug handlers we will give you preferential treatment until hostilities are concluded (which they will be very soon if most of you surrender). Our quarrel is not with the Ukrainian people or most troops rather it is the anti-Russian extremist factions and your corrupt kleptocratic government controlled by US AngloZionist neocons who have deep-seated ethnic hatred of Russians. It is time for you to detach from their influence and control and if you do this nightmare will soon be over.’
Ideally leaflets along these lines can be dropped and broadcasts made on radio and via internet. If an exit is offered the ‘normies’ but the Nazis keep insisting they fight on or they will execute waverers, this will drive an ever-widening wedge.
If nothing else, it will seriously degrade their collective morale and make it unlikely they can withstand the intense barrages coming.
“If you rise and overcome your Nazi thug handlers we will give you preferential treatment until hostilities are concluded . . .Our quarrel is not with the Ukrainian people or most troops rather it is the anti-Russian extremist factions and your corrupt kleptocratic government . . . . .”
I like it
Luckily there are many different ways to explain failure to have actually been success. And vice versa. Russians are good at it.
at the end of the day the EUKUS can only postpone it’s defeat by sacrificing Ukraine to it’s last soldier, so Russia might win the Battle/Special Operation but the War is only beginning…
U.S. is even better at it. The way they high-tailed out of Afghanistan recently was a masterclass is face-saving damage control ‘explanations’ and cognitive dissonance.
I realize how monstrous this sounds, but I would like to see some of the areas with higher concentration of Ukie troops and materiel hit with thermobaric missiles.
Lets be a bit “advocatus diaboli” ….
All our preferred analysts , lets say The Saker , Scott Ritter , and others have extensivly described the actual situation on the battlefield and the possible plans in short future in consecuence of the redeployment of the russian forces.
This point of view was reinforced by the words of the russian diplomats after the talks in Istanbul some days ago and from the words of Mr.Konachenko in his dayly briefings.
Its the first time I hear about that a military leadership or general staff lays down to public lecture their next battle-plan in a running war.
Scott Ritter made a point describing the russian ability to use a feint with success in this war.
I would not be surprised when the russian side will surprise us again…..
i think the brain behind the uki helicopter operations are Nato advisers.
They ve the satelite images and the tactical profession. Ukis operated only as executors.
Nato has sent Putin a message with this chopper action………
CIA types flying…small chop, hand played, counter measures will be taken. One learns from ones mistakes, wars are miserable teaching grounds.
“Ukies operated only..”
Are you sure they were Ukies and not NATOs? Ukies denied it already.
Great analysis. Much appreciated.
On the diplomatic front, EU “warned” China not to support Russia, and dangled EU market as a bait. Anybody who has been following the EU/China relationship development would have known that in order to please EU’s master, EU has been a barking, but ineffective, attack dog. China knows that.
China calls on EU to act independently of US foreign policy
Beijing and Brussels clash over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as Xi Jinping warns against ‘cold war mentality’
What’s a friend? Definitely not this kind: “You only come here when you need something”, a recent UAE cold shoulder to Germany Habeck NG begging.
When the Yank initiated a trade war against China four years ago the Chinese warned them ‘no one wins a trade war, both sides will suffer, but make no mistake, you will suffer more than us’. Did the Yank listen?
Three days ago the Chinese urged the EU Cartel not to ‘politicise’ the upcoming Xi-EU virtual summit. China’s relationship with Russia should not be used as a bargaining chip regarding trade and commerce between China and the EU. Did the EU Cartel listen?
From mid-December 2021 to mid-February 2022 the Russians gave every opportunity for the Yank-Eurobot NATO gangbangers to back off- the security guarantee ultimatums. Did they listen?
What was it Lavrov said after meeting Liz Truss in Moscow 7/8 weeks ago?….something about talking to the ‘deaf and the dumb’?
The hubris of the colonialist-imperialist mindset in Western capitals will be their downfall. It has already begun.
People lament that Slav brothers are killing Slav brothers.
But Wes MNM are not dwelling on the residents of the US melting pot are cutting each other’s throat figuratively.
The un-civilized civil war in the US is running against time for the duration of its Empire of Lies to collapse.
Two thousand years ago, China had a saying, which is still being referred to today: “a caterpillar with thousand feet, it won’t be zombified even dead.” It suits the West perfectly.
I think that we all thought that this was going to be easy in a way, but it was naviety at best, with little knowledge of the land mass of Ukraine. It is twice the size of Iraq, and armed to the teeth by Zion west for many years.
Were it not for the civilians; Russia can reign down hell in Ukraine, much better than USA/NATO did all over this world, and those people remember. Americans have a memory of 2 days, but the rest of the world will never forget.
I believe that Russia alone can destroy the entire Europe and the American warships somewhere close by. They do not need China’s help in this regard, and neither does China for they can destroy everything that Zion West assembles off their Coast. You Americans know better, schooled in the belief that you are ” exceptional” and all possess guns, which you use to kill your own. That will only grow exponentially, for your taught ignorance is overwhelming.
Some comments on posts today: How is Europe to buy gas in rubles? And so many comments trying to see how Europe will convert USD/Euros into Rubles. They still think that they have their superiority complex in place. The answer is quite simple: pay for your gas in Rubles or receive none!
After all of this, the Chinese will be eternally grateful to Russia, for doing what they would have had to do, and do it they would have. I see them trying to overthrow Imran Khan in Pakistan; I see them bullying India to join their evil coalition and I see the Zionists controlled racists EU in China today carrying on their bullying believing that their 1+ trillion trade with China will scare them.
China does not need trade with the entire west, for other trade accounts to well over 5 trillion, and yes; belts will be tightened, but the new silk road is all that matters, and it will free the world of Zionists parasitic oppression.
P.S. if you ever want to see Asia and how clean and successful they have become; look on utube and see elaborate breakfasts for 1usd. It is simply amazing, but I going to where I will never see Zion America, for your heart and soul is what matters. Peace.
I hope it will not end with flame thrower and grenade. I hope that ground radar and penetrating bombs will dislocate the fortification network of the ukr.
Is it not becoming clearer and clearer that Russia is, in actuality, leading the Western elite who are running the show by the nose?
To me, Russia’s primary objective was always to elicit the sanctions that have permitted her to demand rubles for oil and gas. Pure and simple. In many, if not all, ways, the SMO was a planned provocation to obtain the sanctions that will truly cripple the west. Putin in his remarks, while he did not say this, made very clear that the sanctions were suicidal, a suicide to be wished.
So, it is entirely mistaken to say that Russia has lost the PSYOPS war. No, indeed, they have WON it. The populations of the United States and Europe have been convinced that they must accept as a necessity an economic reality that perhaps will fatally harm them. And one sees a whiff understanding of this dynamic in the Western press, but only in the tertiary columns. And as for the population of Russia herself, well, those in the West who yearn for and expect the violent overthrow of Russia’s current government have a long wait, an eternity, to wait.
Am I wrong?
Something bothers me – in this Ukraine chaos, there are all sorts of ways for the British and American operatives to hide something very nasty for the Russians, that might evade detection in ways it normally wouldn’t, in peacetime. Bioweapons, nuclear stuff, drones that carry it across the border… and it’s all obscured by the fog of war. The normal warfare doesn’t look like a problem, except for the Ukrainians, if they push Russia too far, and Putin decides that no more Mr. Nice Guy. But we should never forget that the war is between America and Russia, and Ukraine is something that will be sacrificed to hurt Russia, and it’s been built up for that purpose since at least the Maidan coup, and probably longer.
Ther Russians should expect a Hezbollah style defense in depth in the Donbass., with similar methods used by this militia in the South of Lebanon in 2006 against the Israeli armor and air supremacy, thay had 8 years to fully prepare for this kind of fight.
It won’t be nice at all, and expect huge number of casualties in both sides, it could last many months.
The problem with that assumption and incorrect comparison is this war will not be along one continuous front but rather Russian forces will be flanking and encircling the besieged Ukie forces. They had 8 years to prepare for a war on the Donbass front / line, they didn’t prepare to be encircled from the rear, north, and south which is why they immediately lost mass amounts of territory in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkov / Izyum area. Once Russia reinforces these flanks, the Donbass Cauldron will fall much faster than you think. Even entrenched, there’s only so much you can do against an enemy that comes from all sides and has destroyed or cut off your rear supply lines.
Simplistic view in my opinion.
The Israelis in 2006 with the overhelming air supremacy cut off all the supply lines to the South Lebanon in few days and maintained it through all the conflict in a much smaller territory and without fear of mass civilian casualties (as usual when the Israeli army attacks), byt they did not prevail at the end.
I think NATO (US) has prepared the Ukrainian army especifically for this kind of war in the past 8 years, they did not prepare the ukies “only” to invade Donbass, because they fully understand that this attack in the Donbass means a very strong Russian military response/invasion with all the military means of the RF.
In fact the invasion of Donbass, for US is not what they want, what they want is to destroy the RF as we know and to convert it in a puzzle of small statelets due to the social and political crisis after a disastrous attrition war in Ukraine. This was, and it is, the real US “project” for Ukraine and Russia.
So the (US) strategy is clear: Hezbollah style total guerrilla warfare but at a much bigger scale to bleed the ruskies x10 times Afghan war, using up-to-date ATGM, mines, small rocket attacks, hit and run strikes, ambushes, helped by electronic and human intel provided CIA, BND, and SOF assistance, and informational, emotional and economic sanctions.
The end will depend of the losses (life and economic losses) RF population is prepared to accept.
OTOH, video after video from areas already liberated shows Ukrainian positions that consist of conventional trenches and dug-outs. No Hezbollah-style tunnel systems have been found. Hezbollah was and acted like a classical, low-density guerilla force – have they actually ever used any trenches or dugouts? Ukrainian forces in the Donbas have been acting in a much more conventional, high-density manner. Hezbollah was also faced with a much less dense and intensive onslaught by Israeli groud forces than what Ukrainian forces in the Donbass are going to face, or are already facing. The point can be made that Ukrainian forces can be broken if their still rather conventional way of fighting can be made impossible for them. Then again, the Soviets won against Nazi Germany by deploying much more brutal and resource-consuming means than what the RF is currently deploying against Ukraine, even though the German military fought in conventional ways. It could be said that it was precisely this brutality that was required to achieve whatever de-nazification that occured in the hearts and minds of Germans post-war. They had to get the nazism smashed out of their heads, just like present-day Ukrainians seemingly do if they are not Russian.
Regarding the second case above of the Ukie helicopters shot down, there is a graphic video of one of the downed heli’s aftermath / destruction of what was likely an inflight projectile hit and explosion from a low altitude, as the debris was contained in a relatively small area. In the video, the narrator/soldier named Patel iirc described the scene (po-russki, no translation as of yet) and we were shown uniform patches of Tanzania, SA, and Maroc (Morocco) that were presumably taken from some of the corpses there. Now, although unsubstantiated there are some reports of imbedded “US and British advisors” that were located in the Azovstal complex (Mariupol) (apologies for not providing links, I am not intending to spread rumors or gaslight). If true, these ‘advisors’ are likely (/wink) to be forward intel ops imbedded with the Ukronazi defenders, thus they presumably would need to be extracted by the Ukie forces in an ostensibly AFU helicopter – hence the dangerous and desperate attempts at extraction. Yes it is a courageous mission of extraction, and maybe driven by the suzerain’s command to bring their teams home.
If the above is true then maybe we will find out what and who exactly were extracted from azovstal at the last minute, also (again my apologies for not providing links) there are alleged to be two survivors that are talking from one of the downed helicopters. I will try to find links….
Rest well Saker, for many your site is a first step to clarity on the SMO.
I dont think those were true extractions. Most likely, a deal was made and Russia agreed to take out inconvenient Western assets who might talk at a later time. This would explain how so many helicopters managed to get to Mariupol on multiple occasions. This might also explain why Russian forces are being pulled back.
Followup link to one of the captured survivors:
Look for the title “Today the DPR air defense stinger destroyed a helicopter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Mariupol. The first of them is a member of the national battalion “Azov” with the call sign “Odessit”, 31 March.
Not translated yet in entirety however it appears to be an extraction…
Also from a few posts above on the same site: “According to updated data, ONE of the downed Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters was destroyed by a trained crew from the captured Stinger MANPADS captured during the liberation of Mariupol.”
Shot down with a Stinger sent by globoschlomo the neocons and their green policy. Sustainable application of reuse and recycle!
Am I the only one to ask whether under the Avostal plant there are serious tunnels from which the Azovs troops can esacpe.and/or be reinforced? The same.goes for the Donbas. Europe is famous for subterrainian tunnels connecting major cities.
Bingo. Every house in the ukro zone is a fortification . The houses are equiped with heavy artillery and connected by tunnels with each other. Suisse blueprint. Suisse advisors had lots of time to uilt their defense style.
WER HATS ERFUNDEN?
A Russian source and a Ukrainian source assure us that French soldiers from the Special Operations Command are currently in Mariupol (Ukraine) alongside the Azov regiment.
France-Télévision, which until now denied the ideological character of the Azov regiment, broadcast, on March 31, 2022 to the newspaper de France 2, a report on this formation. State television admitted that it had been infiltrated by neo-Nazi elements in 2014, citing one of its founders, Andriy Biletsky, but assured that it had since changed to become a respectable defense force. France-2 did not mention one of its other founders, Dmytro Yarosh, who became a special adviser to the head of the Ukrainian armed forces. She referred to an old United Nations report on torture, but neither the discovery of its special prisons by the Russian military, nor the recent statements of the UN on this subject. She also did not explain what banderists are in Ukrainian history and reduced the importance of neo-Nazis to wearing the swastika. Having thus hidden the problem, she estimated the danger between 3,000 and 5,000 men, while the Reuters agency assures that the Banderist paramilitaries now represent 102,000 men divided into numerous militias incorporated within the Territorial Defense.
According to the daily L’Opinion, General Eric Vidaud, director of military Intelligence, was laid off on March 29, 2022. However, Eric Vidaud, is the former commander of special operations.
On March 30, five Ukrainian helicopters tried to flee Mariupol, the stronghold of the Azov regiment. Two were shot. The survivors were taken prisoner by the Russian army. They immediately spoke.
The soldiers of the Special Operations Command are placed for all logistical issues under the orders of the chief of the general staff of the armed forces, General Thierry Burkhard, but they keep their orders directly from the head of the armed forces, President Emmanuel Macron.
The clumsy French having embedded officers within da Nazis StormTroopers of uKraine and lost them ungloriously should be enough to scuttle Macron bid for re-election.
Da NAZIO stooge would be advantageously replaced by any of his challengers that all preconize to leave NAZO and dialog with Russia.
Dien Bien Phu II.
“…Russia will have to to do some combination of two things: more man and more firepower…..”
what means more firepower?
a) Thermobaric and low altitude napalm by SU-25 frying the ukro positions
b) heavy bombs (FOAB 7000kg) from a high flying Tupolev 160
Disclaimer: I don’t know the exact battlefield. “Heavily fortified” could mean many different things. So there’s a chance i’m just talking outta my ass here.
But my guess would be: Neither. Incendiary bombs have too much AOE and too little penetration. And heavy bombs are retarded, unless the goal is to destroy infrastructure (exactly what the russians do NOT want!), or seismic bombs (which might be exactly what’s needed).
Instead if i could just magically make things pop into existance, i would order the following menu:
1) Spies behind enemy lines! Name your price, i’ll pay anything for intel.
2) An army of cheap drones. 24/7 battlefield surveilance for all ground units.
3) Infantry equipped with proper optics, night/thermal vision and thermobaric grenades.
4) Flanker CAS and MLRS on demand 24/7
So basically western battlefield luxury, except used smartly.
Very big bombs – bunker busters.
Don’t think they have used them yet ?
Time to take the wrapping paper off.
Quick question: What is the Ukrainian counter to the above?
I only see them reacting to Russian thrusts or lashing out blindly (that attack on Belgorad was beyond reckless) , i.e. no plan at all. For all the drama, they keep getting weaker by the day.
If you were Zelensky, how would you play this situation besides hoping for Daddy NATO to save you?
Having 8 years to prepare and recognising how Russia normally wages war.
Wouldn’t surprise me that have miles of tunnels underneath ground. How far and where they go who knows.
Why would they bore defensive tunnels when the big plan was to go.. forward, through Donbas, Crimea then Bela Russ, then Russ. This situ war was unexpected for them.. IMO.
Good point Thomas.
I believe that Russia scored an important (political/diplomatic) victory today that has been mostly overlooked.
A few days ago we had that briefing by Medinsky that ruffled quite some feathers, including on this blog. The reference to possible ‘guarantor states’ in particular caused quite a bit of upheaval.
(side bar; quote from his statement: “an obligation to conduct troop exercises only with the consent of the guarantor states, which must include Russia.” Most people seemed to have missed that the role of these ‘guarantor states’ was merely in reference to troop exercises, and not any peace agreement as a whole, so it’s no Minsk 3).
Now, because of this vague reference, which did not name any countries besides Russia, third parties like the US and the EU have been forced to declare whether they would be willing to be a guarantor state (even though they haven’t been asked to be one!!!!), should it ever come to that.
The US has, to Ukraine’s public dismay, declined the notion of becoming a guarantor state, even before it’s been actually offered to them. Major EU nations have also either declined or shown great reluctance.
It shows those nations as the warmongers they are, and more importantly, they have publicly declined! In advance! In other words, they have, to a large degree at least, publicly renounced a post-war role they could (in theory at least) have (ab)used to influence events in a Ukraine when the war’s over.
Maybe I’m wrong, but to me this looks like a successful case of giving your opponent enough rope to hang themselves with.
maybe the west warmongers a hidden agenda?
Think u cant believe them anything anymore.
today they say not tomorrow its a yes
Part and parcel to the loss of diplomatic capability by the U.S.A., is the loss of the associated wisdom of keeping one’s own counsel. (That is, keeping one’s mouth shut.) As such, the U.S. Government seems to not know the value of “stop talking”, until prudent to do so.
Contrast the U.S.’s performance in this context with that of the Russian Federation, India’s, or China’s.
Russia has to freeze the fight in Donbass, now that Mariupol is secure and go for the west side. Odessa, Lviv etc and come back east. East of the Dnipr will always be had, but the west if left untouched will be used to resupply
Freeze Donbass, and completely finish Lviv. It will never be part of the New Republic, so let NATO pay for it. Kiev should be frozen for the moment like Donbass and let everyone be on the edge. Kiev can look at a total demo of Lviv and surrender. Odessa is Russia. It must be had
One thing is becoming clear to me, which is the Ukrainians actually have the second best ground forces in Europe. Which is surprising, given the difference in defence spending between Ukraine and western European countries.
They had around 260,000 active forces at the start of the war, likely closer to 220,000 now giving the captured and casualty rate. So The Russians are in the process of dismantling the second best ground force in Europe. This is the biggest military conflict since Korea.
The fact the Russians are doing this is a big sign that they spent the last 14 years totally recreating their armed forces. And the NATO trained forces are behind where the Russians are in terms of leadership, doctrine and training. The Ukrainians have fought well and bravely, doing some very exciting operations against the Russians. But its like the British doing attacks against NAZI Europe, they are pointless morale lifting operations. Nothing more. On the strategic and operational level the Ukrainians have been disappointing to me overall.
John, it rained rockets on the Ukraine, and we know now they were caught flat footed. They were dug in, they were mobilizing, they had a start date ….Russia kicked them in the teeth. Street fight laws. NATO is holding the Ukraine’s hand, washing it’s dirty undies, theirs too….did you see them rockets red glare? NATO did too….as long as Russia has that, and they float around btw, NATO/US will watch in shock and awe.
I wonder what tools is using Russia for the detection of the most dangerous weapons that the ukros keep, like tha Tochka launchers, MLRS, the artillery that retains the capacity of shelling the Donbass, and now helicopters. I know that the first three, at least, are highly mobile. Don’t know about the helicopters. I wonder, in general, how the ukros hide their remaining assests, and how best the satellite and aerial reconaissance of the Russians could find them.
IMHO Russia is preparing for Götterdämmerung in Donbass. They have already unveiled a new paradigm in modern warfare with their maneuver tactics, which has completely wrong-footed the West. Now, I think they intend to apply the sledgehammer. There will be no further debate about the power of Russian forces, and this will put NATO firmly in their place. Pity the poor Ukies, but they got themselves into this; or more correctly, a few bribed politicians put them in this position.
This is no longer about winning a regional dispute. This is about finishing off Western ambitions.
I think so too. For the West this has never been about Ukraine. Time for Russia with the help of China to take the gloves off, militarily, politically and economically.
“that “big” SMO in lieu of a “small” liberation of “just” the LDNR”
I am new here and i’m very impressed. Thank you for your great work.
As far as I can see, the US was stirring the pot in the East and expected a “small” liberation of “just” the LDNR. The Ukrainians were moving troops to that frontier for weeks before the kick off. if Putin had obliged, the US would have applied all of the same sanctions that it’s is doing now. It would also have free reign to re-supply the eastern front. Finally, even if Russia did free the break-away republics. It would still have to contend with a fully intact Ukraine, but now with the full and open support of NATO and the US.
This bigger operation brings the whole game into the open.
That the VSU see the Russian Forces as brothers and liberators is perhaps wishful thinking like the Americans thought the Iraqis would greet them with flower in Baghdad.
This is WW-3, albeit in hybrid form. The Ukraine is but one theatre. To win the Russians need to show decisive military superiority and Zone B lead by the BRICS must break free from the US dollar and Euro.
I am a licensed clinical psychologist with 53 years of clinical experience with dangerous patients of all ages. It is a well established fact that when the CIA was formed, they took many Nazi officers and scientists into their ranks and have learned from them how to create neo-Nazi movements from Israel to Chile. But no ground has been as fertile as Ukraine. Last night I watched one film about a Ukrainian neo-Nazi training camp, in which boys as young as 8 are brainwashed into seeing themselves as a “band of brothers”–as fanatical as any band of Hitlerjugend. They would murder their own parents if they thought the glory of the Ukrainian nation and the sacred memory of Stefan Bandera required it. Judge for yourself:
The CIA has clearly spent billions of dollars training trainers to train trainers to set up these training camps all over Ukraine to make kids with no future want to fight and die as Uko-Nazi heroes killing Russians for generations to come. If Russians want to live in peace, they must develop “de-programming” camps, staffed by Ukrainians who work well with kids.
Jihadi madrasas again. The same playbook. It is not Ukraine that must be denazified, but the world un-CIAed, or if the cancer run deep, un-Americanized – that rapacious greed-driven self-inflation which considers itself exceptional and entitled.
Again- this is not about the Ukraine. The US and UK care a sh1t about Ukrainians. Russia needs to win inside and outside Ukraine.
“Russia needs to win inside and outside Ukraine.”
Like the opponents you appear to be enmazed in the win/lose self-replication binary precluding your avowed purpose of “denazification”.
“Jihadi madrasas again. ”
Change is a constant and hence no one is an expert, whilst the perception of some is in the past rendering them useful fools to others with facility.
Bingo! Never a truer word spoken.
The world must be de-CIAed. That way the bankers can’t fight any battles with a militiary that is out of its depth.
” If Russians want to live in peace, they must develop “de-programming” camps, staffed by Ukrainians who work well with kids.”
The opponents are prone to expeditions to find one size fits all magic bullets informed by efforts to attain “maximum productivity” thereby obfuscating lateral interactions and often rendering their “strategies” hopes, and their hopes illusions.
Examples can be found throughout colonial history particularly in regard to “counter-insurgency”.
Such processes can also be found in Soviet history of which the “West” is often oblivious.
Your hypothesis has been tested at different times, in different locations, by different cultures upon other different cultures and never found to be sufficient in themselves to facilitate the desired outcomes; a contributory factor in why colonialists and others train and place representatives in various locations to maintain a level of threat which they hold to be sufficient to attain the desired outcomes, which through such resort is never attained, even if the Jakarta methods are implemented and/or castles or walls are constructed.
Some others adopted a “holding position” of redefining the desired outcomes in context – why some lubricated the processes of “independence” of the near abroad as part of the ongoing process of the transcendence of “The Soviet Union” by the present Russian Federation – in the understanding that opponents would attempt to impose their desired outcomes on the subsequent “independents” using methods including your hypothesis with approximately similar outcomes with varying velocities.
The ignorances of opponents are lands of opportunity, whilst encouraging, not criticising, these ignorances are ways of keeping portals into these lands of opportunities open.
So I’ll stop here.
Why USSR was unable to denazify Ukraine?
How is that possible?
Did they try?
20 years ago I talked with Ukrainian nationalist. He told me that Ukraine would really be an European country, but the Russians are guilty for everything.
He was doctor in physics, but he beloved in that shit.
How is that possible?
Here’s a very telling photo of a political cartoon from 1945…..
The top part basically says the author of the pic seems to be looking into the future. The picture from 1945 shows the coffin of Nazism with a snake dressed in Ukraine trident and khokhol haircut. Even back then, they knew what Ukraine was.
” thay had 8 years to fully prepare for this kind of fight. ”
One more time. Nationalist does not automatically equate with Nazi.
“Did they try?”
From 1944 until 1954 through a civil war against stay behind assets created by the SD transfered, as a consequence of the surrender of German Forces in Northern Italy brokered between Karl Wolff acting for on behalf of the SS and Mr. Allen Dulles allegedly acting for and on behalf of apparently no one in particular, to CIC then CIA and subsequently BND, with the addition of subsequent insertion of “Ukrainian forces ” captured in the “West” trained, financed and inserted by the CIA and MI6, as is presently the case in Ukraine today.
By 1954 the Banderite forces in Ukraine were largely defeated by Soviet Forces.
Some stayed in Ukraine under protection in the former Galicia and Wolyn (Western Ukraine) outside of the main conurbations, particularly Lviv, with the aid of local population – a popular trick was placing the name of the person under protection of the local population on monuments honouring the dead in the Great Patriotic War in rural areas particularly in the regions of Rivne, Sambor and Ternopil, and applying for new internal passports, since 28 million deaths were and remain difficult to specify in respect of individuals in contexts of destruction and replacement, and a significant number of the local bureaucrats who issued the new passports had previous relations with those recommending those to receive the new passports and stayed in the same place through the Second Polish Republic, The constructs of the Third Reich and the subsequent “Soviet Union” -, whilst some Banderite forces were withdrawn back to Germany by the BND, CIA and MI6 where some stayed and re-organised whilst the emigration of others were finessed into Australia, Canada,South Africa, “The United Kingdom” and “The United States of America” primarly but not exclusively.
As part of attempts at reconciliation, in 1954 The Poltburo of “The Soviet Union”, although after the fact the blame was mis-represented as solely that of Mr. Krushchev due to faction fighting within the Politburo in the early 1960’s, changed the address/designation of Crimea into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic
It is a very complex subject and the above is a small thumbnail.
I suspect 30 years (10 in this case) of mis-education, under the guise of de-communistification.
«Why USSR was unable to denazify Ukraine? Even Stalin. How is that possible? Did they try?»
It is not Ukraine and it is not nazism, it is Ruthenia and fanatical ruthenian-polish-lithuanian fascist xenophobia.After WW2 Poland was reshaped: the ruthenian east and south were taken by the belarusian and ukrainian SSRs, and it took the eastern part of eastern Germany (Silesia and Prussia). Poland massacred and ethnically cleansed the germans, but the USSR did not massacre and ethnically cleanse the ruthenians out of the belarusian and ukranian SSRs because the USSR was a multiethnic state, and its ideology was that the party was more important than ethnicity.
«20 years ago I talked with Ukrainian nationalist. He told me that Ukraine would really be an European country, but the Russians are guilty for everything.»
That is standard polish-lithuanian-ruthenian “prometheism” aiming for the restoration of their Empire that was taken over centuries ago by Catherine The Great of Russia.
«a political project initiated by Józef Piłsudski, statesman of the Second Polish Republic from 1918 to 1935. Its aim was to weaken the Russian Empire and its successor states, including the Soviet Union, by supporting nationalist independence movements among the major non-Russian peoples that lived within the borders of Russia and the Soviet Union.»
RT reports that the US is supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with chemical and biological weapons gear.
“Washington is providing equipment to be used in case of chemical or biological attacks, White House says”
“The US is bracing for the possibility that Russia might use chemical or biological weapons against Ukraine, providing equipment and supplies that could be used to save lives after such an attack, White House press secretary Jen Psaki has confirmed.” https://www.rt.com/news/553149-us-gives-ukraine-chemical-weapons-protection/
Is the US planning on releasing chemical weapons? Guess it’s a win-win if you want to commit genocide and kill Russian troops at the same time.
I think you have a pretty clear analysis of the military and the political states for this war. You only forgot to mention the economic state, where Putin’s strategy has shown to be clearly superior to the US. The Ruble is back to pre-war values, the EU has to now exchange euros for gold or ruble (putting a floor below the ruble and creating a viable gold back for the ruble i.e. Petroruble) and he ‘allowed’ the US/EU to confiscate global reserves which shows the rest of the world that the US/EU can’t be trusted. Dollar/Euro reserves are not ‘money good’ anymore. This was a brilliant psyops for Russia and has made it even easier to garner global support for Russia’s actions.
It has been interesting to watch the “peace talks” the past few weeks where it is obvious that Zelensky is not broken yet, because he is safe in the basement media room of a US embassy in Warsaw.
Recalling the previous two wars or campaigns of Ukraine against the Donbass defenders, in both cases Putin was quick to make a peace deal immediately after the Ukrainians had suffered a terrible defeat and were desperate. Thus Minsk I and II were born which froze the conflict on the ground both times, at least until the Umies decided to try again.
I expect that while going through the motions of the talks, Mr. Putin will be ready for a serious.deal only after the Donbass cauldrons have been shut and the Ukrainians are begging for the lives of their remaining men at arms. Then Mr. Putin will make a peace agreement, and he will get everything he intends to get.
The past month has been the setup and preparation for the main event, at least in Ukraine, which will be the liquidation of the Ukrainian military units on the oblast of Donetsk. Then peace deals after.
Putin hasn’t begun this military operation only for Donbass and he has no interest in those peace talks, he’s only using them to fool the enemy, ie the EU and Germany, like the missile strikes on the port of Kherson and in Belgorod.
The payback must be important to strike such high-value targets. We will soon know why, within a few months I guess. At this point, war will get very serious.
The one thing that really steams me about all this is that the cities suffering the most are all in he East Ukraine. But Lvov whose fanatics are the architects of this nightmare and who sell Putin toilet paper in their street stalls, yes they do, are sitting back untouched watching all this on TV.
It is the people in Kiev and Lvov who should be forced to live in basements and bomb shelters, and while I’m at it, don’t forget London and DC.
The big picture: SMO is the embodiment of “best defense is offense”. This SMO will give birth to Novorussia and death to the $. Without $, like a fetus without umbilical cord, the Wall st, Pentagon, NATO and Neo Nazies will simple implode and rot away in short order. The western Ukraine will beg Russia for reunification as multipolar world dawns on it very soon.
Curiously I just wonder whether “regrouping from Kiev to Donbass” in itself is also “leading the sanke out of it’s pit (art of war). I won’t be surprised the garrison of Kiev is bombed to stone age at some stage during Donbass liberation since it is highly likely Kiev will reinforce Donass in next couple of weeks.
Some videos for today.
Eyewitnesses testify to Kiev-regime crimes in Mariupol:
From neo-Nazis to “freedom fighters” | MSM’s views on Azov Battalion:
Strike takes out Kiev-regime S-300 system:
Launch of an Oniks missile at Kiev-regime forces:
Russian military captures fully operational Ukrainian tanks:
Thanks for those Nate! However, beware of the compromised RT Vids like this one: https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/msm-azov-battalion:4 Seems the story almost immediately spins over to Bin Laden and the twin towers, he wasn’t involved, Israeli did 9/11…Take their tall Zio-tales with a bucket of Salt…
Z+ for Victory!
Massive classic Soviet artillery barrage will have the necessary psychological and physical effect of breaking the will of just about any modern day soldier. How many are alive today who have ever experienced such a thing?
The number of civilian deaths registred official. Impresive comparing to other wars/operations.
I hope God will take care of those poor people.
Yup, that’s the neutral and objective metric I taught of when I was going to meet some friends and feared the “Russian barbarity” would came up in the discussion…
Kosovo: 0 Nato soldiers killed for 1500 civilian deaths
Iraq invasion: 1 US/Coalition soldier killed for 170 civilian deaths
Ukraine SMO: 1 RF soldier killed for ONE civilian death
Hi all ,
A question for the millilitre experts :
about the ukie helicopter attack and extraction , the Russian The Beriev A-50U ‘Mainstay’ airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft , (sitting on there hands) ? you can not fly under there radar ! , and no Russian
fighter jets. in holding sectors ??
“You can not fly under there radar !”
Physically impossible. Prove me wrong.
“No Russian fighter jets. in holding sectors ?”
6 Minutes! Even if the choppers were detected, no interceptor could take them out fast enough. This was not a deep strike, but just “hop across the border, fire a missle, and hop right back”.
Seriously, it boggles my mind how everyone born 30-50 years ago understood such simple concepts, thanks to the cold war. Even people with no clue of military hardware or sensors understood this. But now apparently we have a whole generation unable to understand why the Star Wars trench run was a thing.
LOL well said.
The scamdemic has proven beyond doubt that hundreds of millions (at least) do not possess critical thinking skills.
Most are happy to sit back and be spoon fed their thoughts & opinions.
and look at this monster, already in operation in 2016 !!
A modern war is won by accomplishing 4 factors:
– air superiority
– maneuvering the enemy forces into pockets and containing the enemy there
– wearing the enemy down physically and mentally to kill the will to fight
– eliminate the leadership
– eliminate foreign support
Russia has accomplished the first only; but partially, for Ukie helicopters still fly. Large forces in western Ukraine are still mobile and supplied. Ukraine forces are courageous and tenacious, strong willed. Ukie leadership is unscathed and not threatened. Foreign funds and weapons flow. This conflict continues, because the USA wants it to continue.
This SMO has a very long way to go yet, for the underlying causes are yet to be addressed and the war success factors are yet not met.
Good summary of details there.
One could also argue that Russia has partially achieved all of the above points as well.
Sorry, but this looks deliberately dishonest.
Point 1-2 have both been accomplished in the contested areas. Not even the ukeys argue those points.
And to argue that point 3 has not been accomplished, without mentioning that the ukeys are down to infantry and helis, with nearly all their other equipment destroyed, seem clueless at best.
It’s your last statement however, that tips me over to assuming malice, rather than ignorance: You are explicitely stating that the set goals have not been met. That is a very specific statement, which proves you know exactly what you are saying, and therefore proves you are deliberately misrepresenting the goals of this operation (the goal was never to conquer the whole ukraine).
I agree with you Zofh.
Saker, what I found most interesting in your analysis is the fact that you mention that Ukraine should be divided up into neutral statelets in the west.
I was wondering the same thing but I believe that the Russians must send in pro-Russian politicians to ensure that Nazi-ism is banished forever in the region. It must start with the political and legal system, education, media and history books to overturn years of brainwashing that has resulted in many needless deaths.
That would be extremely difficult. God only knows how many kryptonazis there are out there who could just kill any pro-Russian politician. It would be safer to liquidate the official Nazi Ukrainian media and stop the brainwashing that has been going on for years.
I’ve always believed maps can tell us a lot. This one shows my point. Notice the dark green is where Russian troops are being more accepted by Ukrainians. And if the right methods are used many people would end up supporting Russia. The lighter green areas are also available for Russia to gain support from the locals after they are liberated. The other areas are a mixed bag. Notice Nikolayev and Dnipro have been less welcoming of Russian troops,just as the map shows.But I think those areas can still be won after liberation. The other areas in various shades of red are much more difficult. And will take much more work to denazifiy and neutralize.They are the areas that a new Ukraine should include. While the other areas should not be included in any “Ukrainian” state. Historically even under ancient Rus those areas were never a part of a “Ukrainian” state. The only time they became a part of a “Ukraine” was under the Soviets and then after independence from the Soviets where the Soviet borders were just allowed to remain:
As The Saker hinted, nothing like reducing areas to statelets to provide a new sense of unity but still align with Russian objectives and values.
A do not think the Russian forces near Kiev will go to Donbass. Their 30 day tour is up and they will now go into the reserve. Fresh forces from the reserve will move to Donbass for stage 2 of the Special Military Operation.
A military coup seems the most likely outcome for the “special military operation.” Its chances only increase with time. It could be an objective of the SMO. Putin already told the Ukrainian army that he would prefer to negotiate with them. A day or two ago, Zelensky demoted two Generals saying they had violated “the military oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people.” He said there was no time to “deal with all the traitors” and that “gradually they will all be punished.” He does not jail these Generals even for that. We see he already has an insurrection problem that he did not have three weeks ago. Just recently, the Ukrainian negotiators had to retract clear assurances given to Lovrov regarding the Donbass and Crimea, apparently because they were deauthorized. All this will increase.
The Saker says Russia has bad PR. I agree. Good PR would make an issue of the high heels dance. The now president was 36, no youngster. Newsweek says the video was released in 2014. Until when do Generals follow the man in this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQxsWHvbuHI&t=5s)? Russia should be saying this instead of me. The high heels remind me of the song High Heel Sneakers as sang by the great Elvis, with a line perfect for this dance: “Slap that wig right on…” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jkwpFdXvSY
German Press on Saturday – headlines are Zelensky threatens Collaborators.
Ties in with thesis that Kiev regime is insecure
What it certainly appears like is that western intelligence services have found Ukrainian military officers have been communicating with Russian ones and has alerted zelenskys regime about it.