So now we are 50 days into this Special Military Operation (SMO) and right in between the end of the first phase and the beginning of the second one. So I want to begin by list a few things which were unclear/ambiguous/misunderstood and which now are becoming clear(er):
- There is this saying “no plan survives the first contact with the enemy” which I would even expand to “no plan survives the first contact with reality”. Why? The first one is obvious, the enemy will try to foil your plans, but the second one is less known: in war there is always a large element of chaos simply because your entire country and your military are in one mode up until the initiation of combat operations and because they have to very quickly switch over a completely new reality. The point is therefore not to stick to plan A at any cost, but neither is it to ditch it all and reinvent the wheel. What is needed is a quick response time to identify the problems and fix them. I would say that with this in mind, the Russian military did a very good job by quickly transforming an integrated Ukrainian military capable of strategic operations into a broken-up entity with its various parts isolated and unable to support each other. What is my evidence for that? There has not been a single Ukrainian counter-attack higher than on a subunit (battalion, company) level. Considering that the Ukrainians have the double advantage of being on the defense and having a larger force, this is truly a remarkable achievement. Add to this the money, weapons and intelligence support from the US/NATO and it is nothing short of a triumph.
At the same time, Russia as a whole, and especially the military, did an absolutely awful job talking to the public, both in Russia and in the West. See a typical example of the image on the right. The only mistake the US PYSOPs made was that they really “overdid it”, which profoundly angered and alienated the Russian public which went from “what is going on?” to “we are in a fight for our very survival” very quickly and most Russians are now in what I would refer to a “WWII” mode: total warfare until total victory. In the West, however, the US PSYOPs truly triumphed and totally defeated the Russian counter-propaganda efforts which, the truth be told, were primitive, clumsy, slow and even self-defeating at times. Does that matter? Yes, very. Why?
- Because most people in Zone A sincerely and truly believe that “Russia is losing the war”. Now these are the same folks who until February of 2022 were all virologists/epidemiologists/microbiologists/etc. and who in a remarkable feat, became overnight military experts and now are sincerely advising the Russians on how to wage a war. The fact that no “real” war has even begun does not elicit any second thoughts or doubts in these “experts in everything” folks who simply don’t believe that some matters require years of training to achieve the expertise needed to understand even the basics. And no, as Andrei Martyanov always points out, a BA in communications or a law degree do not make you into a military expert overnight (by the way, I notice a very large “overlap” between the COVID death cult members and the armchair generals).
- Objectively, there is also a double language and culture barrier at work here. Very few folks in Zone A are fluent, or even conversant, in Russian and even fewer understand the Russian mindset. So if all the English speaking media (including putatively pro-Russian ones – more about those later) says something it makes no sense to expect most English speakers to find the correct Russian language Telegram channels to get the other side of the information. As for RT and Sputnik, in their naive and clumsy efforts to appear “objective” they just reinforce the Western propaganda narratives.
- Then there is an interesting phenomenon that became very apparent over the past 50 days: there are quite a few websites and blogs that PRETEND to be pro-Russian but, in reality, that support is conditional on Russia supporting their agenda and if Russians do things differently those putatively pro-Russian outlets quickly take up the exact same talking points as the US PSYOPs. There are also a number of PRETEND “liberal” or “Leftist” or “Anti-Imperialist” websites which were ALWAYS CIA-operated but which, over the years, acquired some (totally undeserved) credibility and which have now suddenly “flipped”. Pro-Nazi “liberals”, got to love that…
The result of all this? FUD: fear, uncertainty and doubts of course.
Even worse are the implications of this FUD on many levels:
- It gives the folks in the West a sense of impunity and it almost totally conceals the magnitude of the dangers the Empire of Hate and Lies is facing today: from real food shortages to an economic collapse, and even to a continental war in Europe. After all, if the Russians are losing, then “we” must be winning, so all is well. Not very bright, but oh so human…
- It angers and frustrates the Russian soldiers actually doing the fighting who are living in fear not about a heroic Ukrainian counter-offensive, but what the Russian government (at all levels and in all branches) will screw up next. Want an example? Sure! How about this: until senior LDNR officials began to openly complain about the Russian customs, the latter did not allow non-governmental humanitarian convoys to cross into the Ukraine. This was solved, now the next one is this: how to organize pensions for the families of Russian volunteers who fight in the Ukraine?
- It greatly encourages the Ukrainians to fight this war down to the last Ukrainian and to total destruction of the Ukrainian civil infrastructure. Yes, the united West wants to genocide Russians by means of genociding Ukrainians. It cannot get any more openly satanic than that!
Having said all of the above, we now need to step back and only make some very basic predictions:
- What began as the “special military operation” is now turning into a total war of the united West against Russia and that means that the goal for the West is not peace, its victory, and a Russian defeat. My personal conclusion is that the West will only stop doubling down if the US homeland itself is threatened by Russian conventional and nuclear strategic deterrence capabilities.
- The Russians are slowly but surely coming to the realization that in spite of all the concessions and retreats made by Russia since 2013 the Empire of Hate and Lies will not stop by itself, it will have to be stopped, by Russia. Again. As the VDV motto says “nobody but us”.
- The Ukrainians have no agency, and neither do the Eurolemmings. In fact, the USA is using both the Ukronazis and their EU serfs as cannon fodder because their calculation is that if Russia wins, then the Eurolemmings will become not only terrified and even more subservient, but also that the EU will burn itself down removing a competitor. I remind you that the USA’s wealth is based on how much the USA profited from both WWI and WWII. So why not with WWIII as long as it remains within the confines of the European theater of operations? And that will be doubly true if Russia loses.
My first conclusion here is that a direct military conflict involving NATO and Russia is now likely.
That, by itself, is simply horrible, but here is a simple truth: if the Anglos, yet again, want to burn down the European continent there might not be anything Russia could do to prevent that. And forget about the suicidal Eurolemmings. Russia can win that war, and she will, but yet again at a huge cost.
And that is exactly what the Anglos want.
So is there a silver lining here or is it all doom and gloom?
In fact, there is: the reactions of the Russian public to the rather ambiguous and sometimes outright weird stuff members of the Russian government, at different levels, have been doing and saying. Like that terrible Medinski presser which totally freaked out most Russians. Or the rumor that Abramovich (!) is negotiating between Moscow and Kiev. Oh I know, that is just another rumor, but considering the DISMAL job of Russian information operations that rumor, and hundreds more, are making the public weary and angry.
And the general public itself, rather than any government officials, started to react to this kind of dangerous FUD by something we could think of as a grassroots counter-propaganda campaign. For example, while the letters Z and V have been banned in the Ukraine (and in Latvia, Moldova, Greece and even in some German states) they are literally all over the Runet and you could say that Z and V have now become part of the Russian alphabet and that they are now often used to replace the traditional Cyrillic Z (З) and V (В).
And now Slovakia is declaring that the Nazis in Kiev are “fighting for the future of Europe“.
Basically, the EU politicians have now de facto rehabilitated the Third Reich. At least now it is official.
Heck, since that war began, even Uber-Atlantic-Integrationist Medvedev has turned into a patriotic hardliner!
So maybe it will be the “Russian street” that will teach the so-called “specialists” how informational warfare is done? I sure hope so!
The other major power from Zone B, China, immediately understood what this was all about: “West’s ban of ‘Z’ symbol a manifestation of its Russophobia“.
Yup, the letter Z is now serving a somewhat similar function to the Star of David in Nazi Germany.
Then there are the many iterations of the following slogans “our cause is just“, “the enemy will be defeated” and “we will go to the end!” which are also all over the Runet. Note that all of these slogans are strongly associated with WWII in the Russian mind.
And then there is this: the, shall we call them “poor communication skills”, of the Kremlin have resulted in a real shitstorm of angry protests and freakouts so the Kremlin had to tone it down by a lot. Yes, Putin PERSONALLY is very popular and trusted (over 80%), but not the government or, even less so, mid-level or local government officials. It would not take much (another major SNAFU for example) to trigger angry protests.
But if anybody is to be truly credited with reassuring the Russian public that no “negotiators” will backstab the Russian military, that honor should go to the “Biden” Administration which “convinced” Zelenski to stop any and all negotiations and to restate the Ukronazis most extreme demands (including the LDNR and Crimea). Now that truly made negotiations not only pointless but pretty much impossible.
Thank you “Biden”!
I also want to use this opportunity publicly express my deepest gratitude to Josip Borrell, the Eurolemming’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, for declaring “this war must be won on the battlefield“! When EU *diplomats* use that kind of language, it has a quasi-miraculous effect on the wannabe “peace camp” in Russia. Even RT (!) seems to have smelled the coffee and now we can find an article entitled “It appears that the West doesn’t want peace in Ukraine“. No kidding, geniuses!
As I have mentioned it in the past, I am personally very much in favor of negotiations and even talking to the enemy during a war, but that should be done very discreetly, very carefully and with the clear “message” to the general public if these negotiations, or leaks about them, are made public. If you cannot negotiate without freaking out your own people, then don’t try, you will do more for peace by shutting up and staying at home. If instead of using the insect-like Medinski (he reminds me of Blinken, same “I am a loser” look) Putin had sent Ramzan Kadyrov the perception about “negotiations” in Russia would probably be very different today.
So what is up next?
- A major battle around the Donbass cauldron
- NATO convoys moving into the Ukraine
- The collapse of the “the Russians are losing” narrative replaced by
- A Russian “atrocity” of some type
- The Western media will begin to “discover sins” amongst those they lionized until now (see image)
- The full dimension of the economic crisis resulting from the collapse of the international economic system will become much more apparent, especially in the EU.
What about the Black Sea Fleet – can it operate without its flagship?
As I mentioned yesterday, I am not a navy person and neither do I know what plans the Russian General Staff had for the BSF. But I can say this: Slava-class guided missile cruisers were designed in the 70s as aircraft carrier destroyers. For this purpose, they were equipped with very powerful missiles, superb (by 1970s standards!) S-300F, OSA-MA SAMs, 6 AK-630 point air defenses, and a lot of (old) electronics. Since there are no aircraft carriers in the Black Sea, I suppose that the Moskva main role was as a command ship (its main cannons don’t provide the range needed to support amphibious assault operations) and also as a relatively powerful mobile, floating, radar. The Moskva was hit by something about 50km south of Snake Island which means that she was also probably watching the movement of ships near/from Romania. Frankly, that is not a task for a guided-missile cruiser.
[Sidebar: as to what actually caused the explosion, my personal best guess is a Ukrainian mine detached by the recent storm and drifting southwards which the Russians failed to detect. That would explain the hull breach which later resulted in the Moskva taking in water and sinking while in tow. I still don’t buy the “Ukrainian 2 “Neptunes” version at all, if only because the Moskva had very solid air defenses while bad weather makes minesweeping very hard. But we will probably never find out for sure, unless the members of the crew reveal what really happened]
Considering that the Ukraine has NO navy at all, I don’t see how the loss of the Moskva would hamper or significantly complicate any BSF operations (navy folks, please correct me here if I missed something!).
The Moskva also had an important role in the eastern Mediterranean (Syria) and yes, there is probably where she will be missed the most. I hope that this loss will provide the impetus to massively accelerate the modernization of old Russian (well, Soviet, really) ships and the construction of new ones.
I would even be inclined to think that the deployment of hypersonic ASM has not only made aircraft carriers obsolete (at least against Russia) but, by the same logic, has made old Russian/Soviet “carrier hunter killers” obsolete by implication. Nowadays, even SMALL missile boats can fire Russian hypersonic missiles thousands of kilometers away, so why bother with really big ships in anti-carrier operations? Range? Okay. Firepower? Okay. Bigger and better sensors? Okay. But not in the Black Sea. And not with a minimally modernized 1970 era ship.
There is no doubt that Russia fought superbly during the SMO and there is no doubt either that the Russians probably calculated that “just” a SMO would be sufficient to achieve the Russian goals (immediate: protect the LDNR, intermediate: denazify and disarm the Ukraine and long term: change the European and world collective security arrangements) was wrong. It is now becoming almost certain that a real, much larger, war to crush the Ukrainian military will be needed, and it will have to be fought with much larger forces and means.
The Empire of Hate and Lies has decided to “go max” and is acting exactly as it would be in preparations for a much larger war in Europe. For example, with the steady stream of mass expulsions of Russian diplomats, there is a very real possibility that Russia and the US/NATO/EU will sever their diplomatic relationships, something traditionally considered as the last step before a declaration of war.
One of the best things the Kremlin could do now is to carefully study how the Iranians since 1979 (!) managed to successfully:
- Never be drawn into a war they did not want (except the one launched by the West and the USSR following the Islamic Revolution which Iran won, by the way)
- Deter the Anglo-Zionists from direct attacks on Iran
- Survive both sanctions and even a blockade
- Defeat US PSYOPs (remember Neda Agha-Soltan?)
- Actively assist in the liberation of other countries around the world and, especially, the Middle-East
- Superbly combine political pragmatism with deep religious piety and idealism
- Preserve their economy (albeit with major difficulties, but not collapse!)
- Preserve their Islamic societal and civilizational model
- Remain truly sovereign
- Maintain a rock-solid morale throughout it all
If Iran could do that, why can’t we? I have an answer to this question, but I won’t offer it until the end of combat operations.
As I have also mentioned many times, Russia is a project, a ‘moving target’, a society that is recovering from at least 300 years of foreign domination (especially spiritual and political) and a society that is STILL changing, very fast in many aspects.
Yes, Russia has a superb military and immense resources. But that is not enough.
Some say that the next “New Russia” was “born in the LDNR”, and I hope that they are right, not in the sense that Russia needs to copy all the decisions (often bad ones too!) of the LDNR, but Russia does need to purge herself from those in positions of power who are just stuck in the past or unable to adapt to new realities.
Can Russia denazify the planet? By herself, no. At most she can militarily destroy all of Zone A, but only in a mutual suicide act of desperation (the US nuclear triad is still mostly functional, in spite of its problems). But can Russia and the rest of Zone B denazify the planet? Absolutely. Even “just” Russia and China together are more powerful than the rest of the planet combined, add India to this and you have a truly unstoppable force.
The Empire is already dead, but like a stinking unburied corpse, it still has enough “toxicity momentum” to continue to threaten the planet until the USA is both denazified and disarmed. That will take a lot of time, even with the recent massive acceleration of the pace of events.
So no quick fix, no quick solution, no quick victory (or defeat for that matter). This is not want Russia wanted, but that is what she got.
May she make the most of it to transform herself into the civilizational realm she was for centuries. That could be the biggest homage to those fighting for the future of Russia today.
PS: I want to remind you all one more time that if the USA and Russia openly and directly clash militarily, I will immediately “freeze” the blog until the situation is resolved in one way or another. I am a guest, a legal alien (“Green Card”), in the USA and it is not my role to speak if my country of current residence and my country of ethnic origin are at war with each other.
UPDATE 1: I should have mentioned that there have been large demonstrations in Serbia in support of Russia. So far, Serbia is the only country with a strong pro-Russian part of the population. No, not all, of course but MUCH more than in any other country, at least that I am aware of. I want to thank all our Serbian brothers and sisters for standing by us!
UPDATE 2: Russian sources are reporting that the nonsense at the border has resumed again, and folks are waiting for hours and even days to get across the border. If true, this sounds like outright sabotage to me.
Fron Galiza, (a small separatist country in NW of Spain), about the Ukrainian War and how it can be the “Final War”…
In my opinion, (from the technical ignorance of the matter), I think that given the massive involvement of the USA and NATO, the only way out for Russia is to use the nuclear weapon, even if only as warning…
A limited use of a nuclear weapon trying not to cause casualties, (or as little as possible), against a symbolic target in the USA!…, a serious warning that either we stop this, or we are all going to true end of the history!
Tell the Wall Street or Silicon Valley elites, if Russia really has a chance to use a nuclear weapon bypassing the US early warning and defense, “Either we stop this and really negotiate the future of Ukraine”… or we will all die!.
It is absurd and too costly to continue destroying Ukraine and killing Slavic soldiers and civilians (Ukrainians and Russians), while the real culprits, the US elites, live peacefully in their country!
That is why the threat has to be direct against them and their families.
It is about forcing a negotiation between the real protagonists of this war, the USA and Russia, (the role of Ukraine and the Eurolemmings is that of puppets managed by the USA!)
In short, try to end a local war and wear and tear threatening the heart of the Empire!… Play, really, all or nothing!…
I’ve been following this blog for years, and this is the first time I am commenting on anything. I cannot avoid it because I’ve noticed a very contradiction keeps coming up .. you keep chaning your mind as to whether or not this war will lead to a wider conflict with NATO. …. Can you please take a moment to clarify your thoughts on this? …
Here are 2 different passages from 2 recent “Sitreps”:
April 9th, Conclusion: NATO-Russia war NOT likely!
“… ? And do you realize that the entire F117 line was literally retired due to that ONE highly humiliating and symbolic event? What would happen when several of U.S.’s key systems are shown in high-definition youtube videos to be completely overrated when Russian systems expose them? It is too great a risk to bear. They cannot allow the last dying profitable sector of their economic engine to be taken offline. …”
Above, April 15th: war IS likely!
“… My first conclusion here is that a direct military conflict involving NATO and Russia is now likely… ”
I apologize if I’m missing something, but I’m having trouble following the logic on this specific point. Thanks!
perhaps it is because conflict is not static – it is ever evolving, mod
The Saker runs a great blog, which I have been following for around 10 years. So far as I recall, he was born in Switzerland, and has worked for the UN (or similar) as a military analyst, and then resigned or got fired, and moved to the USA, where he lives with his wife and kids – now in college?
He is extremely critical of the US Government.
who with more than 3 braincells together isn’t?
I am extremely critical of the UK Government, and my ethnic origins are Scottish and French.
I don’t think the Saker has anything much to worry about, providing he is not living very close to a US nuclear missile base.
His friend Dmitry Orlov (who I also have respect for) saw the writing on the wall and moved from The USA back to Russia.
It’s entirely understandable, whilst under such stress that Andrei, might reassess his opinions and plans.
We have no current plans to move.
If London does get nuked, we might get lucky and our grandkids might survive.
“Can Russia denazify the planet?”
Stop with the WWII fairy tale propaganda. The Galicians were a problem for the Austrian Empire, because they think everyone is inferior, not just Russians, but Germans, Czechs, Poles and Hungarians. Had the real “Nazis” won WWII, the bankers behind the attacks on Russia and China would have been unable to do what they are doing. There is nothing “Nazi” about the US installed junta in Kiev. Yanukovych had to go because he refused the poison apple offered up the the banking cartel masquerading as the EU.
America has had two President’s descended from open supporters of Adolf Hitler.
“On Oct. 20, 1942, the U.S. government ordered the seizure of Nazi German banking operations in New York City which were being conducted by Prescott Bush. ” https://12-7-9-11.blogspot.com/2006/12/trading-with-enemy-bush-family-deep.html
“The Union Banking Corporation, … was in fact established on Thyssen’s behalf in 1924 by W. Averell Harriman and his partner George Herbert Walker.”
Note carefully the name, George Herbert Walker, of the Nazi sympathizer who was helping to finance Adolf Hitler. Prescott Bush apparently admired him so much, that he named his son after him. The name of the 41st President of the United States of America … George Herbert Walker Bush.
Thank you very much
Overall I agree, Saker; yet I consider a peaceful world requires that the whole Empire (US, EU, NATO, Britain… and other bits) be “both denazified and disarmed”:
“What began as the “special military operation” is now turning into a total war of the united West against Russia and that means that the goal for the West is not peace, its victory, and a Russian defeat. My personal conclusion is that the West will only stop doubling down if the US homeland itself is threatened by Russian conventional and nuclear strategic deterrence capabilities…
My first conclusion here is that a direct military conflict involving NATO and Russia is now likely…
The Empire is already dead, but like a stinking unburied corpse, it still has enough “toxicity momentum” to continue to threaten the planet until the USA is both denazified and disarmed. That will take a lot of time, even with the recent massive acceleration of the pace of events.
So no quick fix, no quick solution, no quick victory (or defeat for that matter). This is not want Russia wanted, but that is what she got.”
The information war is in change mode. Watch Twitter. Main propaganda arm of the Deep State. The war is on multiple fronts. We WILL win against the Nazis, The Fourth Reich and the Deep State. God bless.
“We WILL win against the Nazis”
Yeh, My Dad did, and survived, or I wouldn’t have been born
Considering Serbia, at least 70% of our population are strongly for Russia…probably even more.
People in Serbia re mostly Pro Russian but Serbia is unfortunatlely also an occupied country. Surrounded by Nato countries Serbia has managed to survive. Actuallly if you compare the russian special operation in Ukraine and the Serbian fight against Nato in the 90`s the Serbs performed quite well against the Nato beast. They ve destroyed completly the serbian infrastructure. They ve used uranium ammunition against Serbs. Serbia is still alive. But today the serbian government is a Nato German prostitute. The green Baerbock is attacking every day Serbia. Same like Taxidriver Joschka Fischer
She is threatening with punishment if Serbia doesnt implement sanctios agains Russia
“Because most people in Zone A sincerely and truly believe that “Russia is losing the war”. Now these are the same folks who until February of 2021 were all virologists/epidemiologists/microbiologists/etc. and who in a remarkable feat, became overnight military experts and now are sincerely advising the Russians on how to wage a war. “
It is noticeable how the Americans, Anglos, and Europeans are just as arrogant as their political regimes and elites.
Just as “Zone A” elites believe that they are the moral judge and jury of the rest of humanity, so too do citizens of these nations share in this supreme arrogance whenever they dispense their divinely-inspired wisdom on whatever is the Hot Button issue of the moment–whether that be Covid-19, the Ukraine War, or the Eurasian alternative to the American Dollar financial system.
As the Palestinian intellectual Edward Said once said, America in particular is the perfect combination of ignorance and arrogance.
We live among the truly ignorant here, they are a tired and proud bunch, w/a denial or depression mentality, the latter appears to be gaining momentum as we approach the end game.
Russian MOD reports Saturday evening :
A (Ukie) military transport plane was shot down in the Odessa region. The plane was transporting a large amount of weapons
Thanks Saker, good work as usual.
I read a serious analysis saying that China is thinking to drop the support of Russia. Many reason for that. Maybe they prefer their major economic link with Europe and other country.
Any comments? What do you think of that?
That this analysis is not serious.. China is certain to have misgivings but knows that if it lets Russia be destroyed by economic warfare it is next.
As for Russia losing the information war one must remember that it is up against a PR/propaganda machine that has been developed since WW1 with tremendous human/economic resources. This was how the ‘elite’ kept their power int the era of mass voting.
But as Scott Ritter, Hudson and others say it will not work so well when the economy tanks.
«I read a serious analysis saying that China is thinking to drop the support of Russia. Many reason for that. Maybe they prefer their major economic link with Europe and other country.»
That is what the editorial of “The Economist” said:
I reckon “The Economist” is a clever propaganda organ, but it is hard to imagine that they thought the current chinese government would take seriously their arguments: as soon as the Russian Federation government gets replaced in a “color revolution” the new neoliberal/neocon government will invite the USA to build a chain of bases on the western and northern chinese borders from which to train, fund and arm many “freedom fighters” inside China.
I suspect therefore that the editorial is addressed to the oligarchs of the coastal regions of China, on the basis that they should be happy to push for a breakup of China, to align themselves more with the “Washington Consensus”.
“Opening and dividing China”, The World Today, May 1992:
«Needless to say, not all these regions are like to have the same views on foreign policy questions. Coastal regions would be less willing to see relations with the United States deteriorate, or take a hard line with Hong Kong or Taiwan.»
Or support the Russian Federation to avoid being surrounded by USA bases.
When is Nightvision’s 04/16 SitRep coming out? I can’t stand the wait!
I guess what is unclear now is when phase 2 of the war starts.. Even if Russia would like to wrap up now the eastern pocket must be dealt with.
The eastern cauldron is phase 2
>Phase 2 will bring it under control.
Well in Europe, at least in France i’m pretty sure 30% of the pop is pro Russian and a good 50% in fact dont give a shit because we re getting poorer.
Dont mix the govs and the people, in czeh and slovakia majority of the pop is still pro Russian and in hungary hmm id say the same.
Anyway any dude here with basic macroeconomic sense knows that we re fu**ed.
Thank you for your wonderful work. I believe you are right, a major confrontation with the West is inevitable. They won’t back down.
I have long been convinced that we are living in the Biblical Endtimes. The Covid-hysteria with the implementation of the Mark of the Beast and now the events in the Ukraine have only strengthened my firm conviction. These are times of great deception, hence all the mind-boggling lies and propaganda. However, I believe that this major and decisive war is between two to six years down the road. We are still at the stage of “wars and rumors of war”. For one thing, the West is not ready militarily for the showdown. They are getting prepared, though, increasing all their military budgets, integrating even formerly neutral countries such as Finland or Switzerland into NATO, submitting their own populations to the Great Reset, etc. This will take time. More importantly, the West lacks leadership. Biden is just a puppet and a weak and broken one at that. He does not have the charisma to rally the West and get the public behind a major war.
When the chaos and poverty in the West are at their peak, the leader will emerge and the war is going to start. He will come in with a promise of “peace and safety” as well as prosperity, but he will betray those who trust in him. He is the one known as “the son of perdition” or the Antichrist. He is already guiding the West from behind the scenes. While he has not yet been fully revealed, many people have understood who he is.
The good news is that he will be defeated by the Kings of the East militarily and by Christ spiritually. So, let us be vigilant, sincere, calm and steadfast, speak the truth and pray.
Be blessed, my courageous brother in Christ.
“…A complete break from reality.”
What is the Zec (the prisoner) smoking/snorting/shooting up his dilapidated brain? Is he beginning to have hallucinations, like Hitler did? Russia needs to admit defeat? CIA is pushing some heavy drugs on the poor bastard.
Zelensky wants Russia to admit defeat
And then I asked Kiev about the Crimea
President of UkraineVladimir Zelensky once again spoke about the negotiation process. He wants Russia to admit defeat first before asking Kiev about Crimea.
Zelensky is ready to discuss non-entry into NATO and the status of Crimea, but only after Russia completely withdraws its troops. Including from the LDNR, whose independence the Russian Federation recognized.
Earlier, Readovka wrote that a military expert called Zelensky’s statements about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “a complete break from reality.”
Just a few words about border control. I’m from Slovenija and we are in Schengen now. But Croatia isn’t. They would do anything for tourists (even covid restrictions in summer), but there are waiting times to enter many times. And what they do. You come to the border policeman. He slowly takes your id card in the hand, than puts it in to the right hand, waits a little and gives you back. He may also watch tv or almost allways talk to a colleague. If you go east, worst it gets. Montenegro a few years ago. 20 cars in front 30 minutes to enter. Back to Bosnia 20 cars 45 minutes. Austrians in the summer (10 km long waiting line of their and German citizens returning home from vacations) Bulgaria Turkey chaos. Entry to Hungary from Slovenia before Schengen for trucks: up to 24h, it was great if there was just 3 or 4 hours. Now they drive through without stopping and everything is allright. I think there is the first subject in the border police school how to show your power through waiting lines.
“May she make the most of it to transform herself into the civilizational realm she was for centuries. ” -wrong, mistake-
She never stop to be civilizational realm. Dear Andrei you remind me on Anton Chekhov characters you too have this inborn nostalgia to pessimism. It is common also in Serbs mentality specially by descendant of pre-Communist elite class, Sorry but that is my feeling reading this article- Dunya Radonic
I could be wrong, but it seems to me few Patriots actually believe the US CORPORATION owned media these days, so that the so-called propaganda game Russia supposedly lost in your view has us Patriots worldwide hoping the Sean.Penns of Hollywood go to Ukraine & get their just desserts for idiotically thinking that they moronically represent us rather than their true handlers: US CORPORATION⚡
‘Nothing is insurmountable for Soul; It learns how to make everything into stepping-stones instead of stumbling blocks.’
The Spiritual Life
Z. ZEE Spiritual name for Sri Harold Klemp. See also Wah Z.
Bring back the Peace Sign.
Otherwise known as Churchill’s V for Victory.
But, I like it as the Peace Sign. There is a good feeling in flashing that two finger sign to another person knowing in your heart and soul that it means that you are wishing them Peace. And, even better, is when they see it and respond by wishing Peace back upon you.
And, if some people see it as a V for Russian victory sign, well so be it. Besides, Nazis are always going to find a reason to hate a Peace sign. The two never go together, Nazis and Peace. In fact you can very reliably spot Nazis by exposing them to the concept of Peace,and then watching them freakout like a Vampire near sunlight.
Bring back the Peace Sign. It feels good. Try it. Smile, and flash someone that two finger salute wishing them Peace. And yes, the Smile is important too. It feels good. Bring back the Peace Sign.
In the American college basketball tournament, there was once a successful coach named Valvano who had a very simple formula he preached to his team …. “Survive and Advance”. It worked. It kept the team focused on the task at hand, which was to survive this game and advance to the next.
The same applies to revolutionary struggles against entrenched powers who think they are almighty. An opponent to such an empire insults and confronts that empire simply by the act of surviving. A revolutionary challenge to a ruling empire continues to present an existential challenge to that empire simply by the act of surviving.
This is the lesson that Iran has been teaching. Just continuing to survive challenges the empire.
I know the Russian’s like to sneer at American military history, but George Washington’s struggle against that era’s ruling imperial world empire is another example of this. George Washington won his campaign and freed America from English Tryanny by not really winning a single battle. His one claim to fame was a midnight crossing of a river on Christmas Eve to launch a surprise attack.
But, George Washington did one thing very well. He survived. He held his army together, begged and borrowed enough supplies to keep fighting, and the Continental Army survived. And as long as it survived, it was a challenge to the English King who swore that everyone had to kiss his hiney. George Washington survived, and he survived some more, and then the empire found it had massively overstretched itself and then George Washington won.
If you look at the current situation, the USA has set upon itself a very mighty task. It must beat down not only Russia but also China in order to achieve its stated goal of preventing the rise of a nation with enough power to be even a regional challenger.
While that may sound like the plot of a James Bond SuperVillan, it is the USA stated strategic goal. And, to do that, it must win. A draw is not good enough. It must vanquish its foes. As long as what is now a trio of Russia, China, and Iran survive, they will in the end defeat the empire. It is the empire that seeks a decisive victory, and that is a very tall task for an empire that has chosen to rest its foundations on corruption, coercion and lies.
One gambler’s ‘tell’ about the Americans is that they always accuse others of what they themselves are doing or feeling. When they talk about Putin being ‘desperate’, this tell is showing. It is the Americans that are desperate. They act like they wanted this war in 2019, couldn’t get it then, and now that they are behind schedule and late, late for a very important date. Its the Americans that are acting desperate because like most bullies they are being shown that they are weaker than their big talk, and this is happening at the time when the Big American Plan for World Conquest says they must win and win now. Everything from AUKUS to Ukraine seems rushed. Then, with every setback, they seem more desperate for some ‘wonder weapon’ that is going to win the war for them.
Hi everyone hi Saker, I try to be anonymous online most of the time, therefore I have no way of contacting anyone. (This is true for many many years). But I noticed something no-one seems to mention, and it is urgent…
Remember Gozalo lira’s pined tweet? It seems he got disappeared…
Please make #where_is_gonzalo_lira or something similar to it, hopefully we find out about his fate.
Not confirmed, but there’s talk of his arrest at the border.
Delusional to think that the US will stop if its territory is threatened by nukes.
This is the end game for the pedo-satanists ruling the World. A global nuclear war to exterminate as much humans as possible and every Orthodox Christian from Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Romania, Serbia, Georgia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Greece, Ethiopia.
“Now these are the same folks who until February of 2022 were all virologists/epidemiologists/microbiologists/etc”
Such statements show big amount of ignorance. Just because someone is put on particular high position, doesn’t mean he deserves it. Actually, I think this is the main issue in the West… The west has so many people on high positions, that are stupid beyond belief. Their stupidity, is obviously used by someone …
And about Russia, you have pro-Russian views, although even this is hard to define.
1) Putin made HUGE mistake by allowing Ukraine to fall into the globalist hands in the first place. This is continuation of the late Soviet politics – let the periphery go and work it out on themselves… Well, the western world eat that periphery, that’s the result…
2) Putin acted like Zelensky is actual leader of a country… The dude is an actor and puppet, who doesn’t care about Ukraine. There will be no diplomatic solution. There is no “SMO”. It’s a war. And better the Russians get it sooner then later.
3) Putin underestimates the need for media control and propaganda. There is no such thing as “free media”. It’s all paid, to create stupid that fights on your side. If you don’t create stupid, the enemy will create stupid. This is just how it works. The Soviets were better at using propaganda and fake ideals.
4) It’s my opinion, but the west will not mind killing a lot of its population. Again, if you understand the topic of “viruses” and “vaccines”, you will know that. The west is imagining new world, of one dominant power, no wars, AI, automation. Well, the population growth must be controlled somehow. A war will be great for them to reduce the population and rebuild the world in a new way. Something the elites openly want. WW3 may be something they actually want, if they are the winners, and the cost is acceptable. The west was playing it good, while the USSR existed with the cold war. When USSR felt, they show their true face…
A very well thought out post. I’d hope that the readers of The Saker thoroughly understand what’s being hinted at.
For those (non-US readers are forgiven) who still don’t get it: In the movie ‘Terminator 2’, SKYNET’s motive for launching the entire US nuclear arsenal at Russial. Well, substitute ‘SKYNET’ with ‘ZoneA-NET’
Point #4 has very grim implications. The entire concept of M.A.D and Financial M.A.D (ie globalization) is based on concept: if you destroy ‘us’ to steal our stuff, then we’ll can destroy you in a counter strike, therefore let’s trade instead. But M.A.D depends on a set of assumptions now made invalid- and the ones that are still valid won’t be for much longer.
1.. That ‘us’ and ‘you’ each refer to the whole of the respective societies on the receiving end of destruction. But what if it’s not the whole of society? Worse, what if the portion of society that’s in control of government(s) stand to gain immensely at the expense of everyone else. And the same people correctly or incorrectly believe that even if there’s a miscalculation that leads to an exchange, their survival – and gains – are assured in a M.A.D scenario?
2. That governments are rational AND that complete information is available to decision makers of both sides, AND most important: if one side ISN’T rational, the people in that nation have the capacity to reign the government back into reason – if only for their own survival.
3.. That governments view foreign populations as a much bigger threat than the domestic populations
4. That it isn’t technically feasible or more cost effective to eliminate citizens to achieve the same level of security desired by ‘the state’.
5. State players won’t collude with other state players against their respective populations.
6. There is a desire to save domestic population as a whole or failing that, as many as possible.
7. That ONE side wants the current structure of civilization preserved from annihilation. What if that’s not the case? What if the current structure is blocking the way of one side’s vision. Or what if both sides vision of the future existentially disagree with each other AND the current order. Now what? Does MAD still hold?
8. That there isn’t an existential financial motive to eliminate a large portion of a state’s citizens. For example, did the MAD construct ever account for the possibility that one day most of the west might not be in a position to deliver basic responsibilities (pensions, food, energy, etc ) for whatever reason. And that there would be a financial motive of debtor governments to keep creditors from collecting. Obligations in the sums of hundreds of trillions. One way is to steal it from others (sanctions, inflation, regime change or all three). The the only other way is to cull the creditors owed to – and their heirs. A squid game.
I don’t believe that M.A.D deterrence will this time. The assumptions on which MAD is based aren’t holding and haven’t been valid within Zone A for some time. It shows with financial MAD ie ‘the great decoupling’ and the self-destructive sanctions. After all, how do the real decision makers – who most certainly are not stupid – imagine relations should they fail at an attempted subjugation of an entire civilization / peoples? That everything goes back to normal as if nothing has happened? How do they imagine favorable trade would ever be possible in living memory. If the info about the bio-warfare labs holds up to scrutiny, then it was almost certainly about extermination – not enslavement as Zone A has enough slaves of their own. Appears for now that Zone A got caught red-handed and know it, and Russia dare not pretend that Zone A didn’t try, isn’t trying or won’t again. In this light, what motive does Zone A not have to escalate no matter what the cost? I believe this is why every deescalation offered by Russia has been rebuffed. First because it’s seen as profitable in the short run where the hope is that the long term cost are exported to someone else (all gain, no pain). Second because it’s interpreted as weakness where a concession was gained from Zone B at almost zero real cost until recently. Third because the West see’s no reason to negotiate and then only to the extent of that it can purchase another opportunity for treachery. All because fourth, Zone A NEEDS the destruction of Russia / China for their own survival. It’s about a group of hunters looking for bear meat to stave off starvation for a time, nice bear fur coats to protect against cold and a nice den to move into for shelter. And rendered bear fat to fuel a warm fire. Coexistence has nothing to do with it.
Based on observation, can deduce the following aspect of WEF/Davos/etc vision for the future:
Because a nuclear exchange is too messy, too problematic for too long (half-live of radioisotopes being one issue), I’m afraid that Zone A is seriously considering opening a front in the biological realm . And the dynamics are such that Zone A almost has to for any type of ‘win’ considered acceptable. And the same dynamic applies even more so with a loss. From the perspective of the west’s ‘elites’ there are numerous benefits.
1. No easy way to attribute and quite stealthy
2. More complete and many times more efficient than conventional and nuclear.
3. More selective and to any criteria (genetics for one). The tech is now at a sufficient level for development in this direction.
4. Immunity can be permanent for elite and expiring for non-elite. Life – on a ‘may-renew’ subscription model. For example: A pill/jab that confers temporary immunity to disease X as prevalent as he common cold is today – with 100% mortality. One missed or late dose equals death. And available ONLY to select populations ie skilled workers (like those that’d keep nuclear power plants and fuel storage from going critical for lack of maintenance for example)
All this is to say – Pray that Zone B prevails.
Also as a further aside: for the record, strongly agree with #1. Not the 1st time I’ve been ‘irked’ about that way of thinking – if nothing else it sets up persistent blind-spots where it’s only a matter of time before getting blind-sided from that exact direction. Peter’s Principle meets Murphy’s Law.
“The US PSYOPs truly triumphed” – I’m not so sure. Yes, the mass of Americans believe the drivel doled out by our media, but there are those who formerly generally trusted the corporate media who are appalled at the insipid, histrionic, biased reportage, causing them to question that faith. Moreover, those who fall for the crap are too busy worrying about their own concerns (inflation, unemployment, COVID, etc.) to care much about the Ukraine or do anything to support the hegemonists’ project.
P.S. I like your idea of a mine having done the damage to the Moskva; I hadn’t thought about that. Here’s another possibility that did occur to me: a Directed Energy Weapon.
One thing that argues in favor of my theory or a missile attack is the timing, the sinking coming just a day or two after 1000 Ukrainian soldiers had surrendered, a major embarrassment for Ukraine. A fire or a mine could not have been timed so perfectly.
This was included in Wikipedia’s description of the Slava class cruiser. Be careful of the propaganda corruption in Wiki now:
Overhauled from 1991 to 1998. Was involved in the 2008 South Ossetia war. 3 December 2009 was laid up at floating dock PD-30 for scheduled interim overhaul. Back in service in 2010 with exercises scheduled in the Indian Ocean. Involved in Russia’s Vostok 2010 military drills in the Sea of Okhotsk in July 2010. Sent to Syria in 2013. Participated in the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but was counter-attacked and sunk. It was the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet.
Great article, and very well thought out. From my point of view, the current conflict in Ukraine is a battle between the authority of Nation States vs. New Global Monarchy.
During the dark/middle ages, Europe was ruled by wealthy families, and the idea of “nation-states” did not seem to exist. These wealthy families had a club of sorts centered around Rome and, more specifically, the Bishop of Rome.
The new “Monarchy” centers around the “Club of Rome.” It consists of the new Uber Wealthy, ordained from on high to dictate how resources are allocated.
Russia, or the “Russian World,” appears to be centered around the Nation-State and Culture. The New Global Monarchy is centered around establishing a new feudal society ruled by the members of the World Economic Forum. For the New Global Monarchy, multicultural == no culture.
As an American, I’m on the side of the Nation States and cultures in this fight. Thus I understand precisely why Russia needs to win this conflict.
This conflict with end up with one of two outcomes:
* Russia wins; thus, Nation-States win
* Globalist Win; the new Global Monarchy is established
I fear that time is on the side of the Globalists, and Russia may have no way to wrap up the conflict. Unless all of Ukraine falls, the “Club of Rome” will keep pumping in weapons until Russia is so weakened it falls.
For all of our sakes, let us hope this does not happen.
Image Of Moskva Being Towed post incident:
Andrei. In mho, russia is making something rare, because let the ukraine sink their flagship, is a very bad thing. But, i think russian give up the moskva and because of that, can upgrade the war… London will recieve the hit. London will be destroyed un her infraestructura from the northpole…caliber salvo… Tzin zu maybe?
“Shelling and clashes with small arms reported near Staroverivka, Kharkiv region”
Are Russian forces in Izum at risk of getting cauldroned right now??
>the Ukie military as a strategic instrument basically died in the first 24 hours. they are not able to conduct any operations, and that is why all their so-called “counter-attacks” always fail and mostly never even materialize.
Hi, which russian media would you advise?
Andrei, don’t forget that a big chunk of the population of Latinoamerica is pro Russia (not included governments). Cheers !
Seems the awaited offensive has started, sharply increased bombing runs, artillery.
Well here’s my attempt at a pro-Russian viewpoint, with Jim Fetzer – https://www.bitchute.com/video/5lTHFzCOJ1ee/
Nice work! Thanks for the link.
If the US and Russia engage in open warfare, don’t worry about freezing the blog there will nothing left.
to read 19 04 2022
fz-mod: please, in the future add your own translation
Зверюшки в зоопарке ….под бомбами: Мариуполь 2022 и Берлин 1945.
Animals in the Zoo …. under bombs: Mariupol 2022 and Berlin 1945.
Death to Fascism!
I think originally Putin was hoping that the Minsk Agreement would create a weaker Ukrainian Republic like Moldova, allowing Russian politicians or sympathetic to Russia be elected and be able to unite the two nations over time.
But similar to what happened after the CUBA war, all the wealthy white plantation owners and Mafia Casino Hotel owners were exiled to Florida USA, to this day these expats still lobby American Congressmen to sanction Cuba. This is similar to Putin evicting Russian Oligarchs to London England after they plundered the Russian economy after USSR collapsed. These Russian multi Billionaires managed to lobby UK and USA government to go for Regime change in Russia and steal all the resources.
As to the propaganda war fought, and as stated by the Saker, being lost by Russia: First, I don’t believe for a moment that the Kremlin cares one whit about this NATO psy-op. Second, as the Saker stated, the entirely over-the-top fiction that western ‘experts’ shovel has indeed had a salutary effect on the Russian population, with President Putin having a personal approval rating – of the Russian people – that western ‘leaders’ can only fantasize about. That doesn’t sound like a loss to me.
Assuredly they will counter any attempt to smear the Russian Federation – Bucha being the last Ukrainian atrocity carried out by the Azov crowd. However, it really matters not. Western ‘leaders’ and ‘media’ will spout BS regardless of any proof Russia can provide. All Russia needs to do is to maintain this evidence, and use it at the appropriate time.
The only audience President Putin needs to address is his own people. He does not care, nor does he need to care about the utter BS spewed by western media, the WH, and a host of others in la-la land.
A recent statement by a Ukrainian member of the Rada (Kulikov?) stated that the situation will be determined on the battlefield. In this regard, Russia’s ‘truth’ is crushing Ukrainian ‘truth’. Russia will prevail regardless of ignorant western talking heads.
Yes. Interesting times we live – and die – in.
I’m not sure that the Russian propaganda effort in the west has been a disaster.
It depends on what the objectives are.
If the goal was to win widespread public approval in the west, then yes, it was a failure.
But then again that was never going to happen anyway was it?
Truth is, the US media is just a branch of the overall control grid.
The media conglomerates are corporate members of the Council of Foreign Relations. As such, the media, although privately owned, is a tool of the ruling establishment. It is never going to be objective.
It is an avowed enemy of Russia and of all nations not submitted to western domination.
Russia cannot possibly appease the western press, nor the population that counts on that press for its understanding of world events.
So conflict is inevitable. And with that understanding, success or failure in propaganda should not be measured by popularity in the enemy camp, but rather by the effects that propaganda can generate concerning the overall conflict. I won’t elaborate more on this point, but it is very important.