The western media is writing with a uniformity and discipline which goosestepping SS on a parade could envy them: Joe Biden delivered a “stern warning” to Putin: don’t invade the Ukraine, or else… (see here, here or here).
Since Russia has no intention, need, or even capability (as currently poised) to “invade” the Ukraine we can be certain that Biden will make his best impersonation “sheriff squinting eyes at OK Corral” (US Presidents like to do that to look “tough” and, therefore, “presidential”) and declare that he single-handedly stopped a Russian invasion on the Ukraine! He is SO MUCH “tougher” than Trump, right?
That is a small price to pay to avoid a full-scale (or even limited) war.
This will be an obvious PR stunt, which won’t even help Biden very much, but in his tough (disastrous, really) situation, anything he can present as even a semi-success is worth saying and doing. “So – I stopped Putin!” was the best Biden could hope for.
This, however, still solves nothing on substance (yet?).
However, there are clear signs that substantive talks did take place (length of the conversation, experts present, tone following the meeting, etc.)
First, both sides agreed to “further consultations” on the “expert level”.
Furthermore, the US side has declared “we still do not believe that President Putin has made a decision” to “further invade” the Ukraine. So in spite of all the (hilariously ridiculous) “secret maps” posted by the western media (see here or here), the folks in charge in the Biden White House seem to be singing to a different tune (so far?).
Then there is this: considering that Putin has officially drawn “red lines” and that Biden has officially declared that he will recognize no red lines – what is it exactly which the mentioned “experts” agreed to “further consult” each other about?
The answer is quite obvious, I submit: precisely these red lines!
It is now clear that the Biden Administration’s official position about hellfire, brimstone, sanctions from hell, and all the rest of the threats and insults which the US has made will actually be acted upon only IF Russia invades the Ukraine.
In other words, what if Russia does not invade (which she won’t), then no more sanctions???
We can be sure that the War Party (which I define as follows: the entire US media, the Neocons, the MAGA-GOP gang in Congress, the “non-Biden gang” inside the Democratic Party, the US energy sector, the US MIC, the entire US “deep state”, the Israel lobby, the Ukie lobby, the UK lobby, the Polish lobby, etc.) will present that as a huge, galactic, “concession” and even “betrayal” by Biden who “caved” to Putin The Evil Communist KGB Thug.
[Sidebar: the hysterics of the War Party about Gen Milley or Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan have proven beyond reasonable doubt that the these folks have now fully adopted the line which the Dems held during the 4 years of the Trump Administration and that they will now at least try to fabricate some “Russia-gate v2” to win the next elections. There is no honor among thieves and they *all* sure are thieves!]
Here is what the War Party will focus on: what exactly could US and Russia experts even be negotiating about?
Until today, the US officially treated Russia was a “regional power” with her “economy in tatters“, “a gas station masquerading as a country“, a non-entity to whom the Empire had absolutely no need whatsoever to pay attention to, nevermind negotiate with!
And now, negotiations???
Negotiations, by definition, imply first, that both parties approach the negotiations as equals and, second, that both parties are willing to engage in a mutually beneficial give and take.
If not, they are not called negotiations, they are called ultimatums.
And by all signs, Biden presented Putin with no ultimatums whatsoever.
“Worse” (at least from the War Party’s point of view), is the fact that Biden has so far called Putin 3 times, met him once, and requested today’s video conference. That is for at least five times that the sole hyperpower and world hegemon and leader of all democracies have reached out to “killers” in the Kremlin and asked for talks. Five times.
Asked (nicely and politely)
For talks (as equals)
Five times (and promised more)
That is huge and absolutely unprecedented since at least twenty years, if not since the fall of the USSR!
Obama, assuming he is currently sober, must be in tears :-)
It gets even more amazing next.
According to the British, Biden has promised to call the following western leaders to brief them about his negotiations with Putin:
- The UK
Did you notice who was not even mentioned?
Well, Poland and the Ukraine for starters!
This goes to show that whatever the official propaganda line is, at least *somebody* in the White House understands that there is a “real Europe”, the Europe that matters, and then there is the “European kindergarten” which matters nothing (I won’t even mention the 3B+PU clowns).
Later, Sullivan tried to do some damage control and declared that Biden would speak with “Ze” on Thursday. But what could Biden tell “Ze” other than give him tons of verbal reassurances and zero guarantees?
Finally, it is noteworthy that the US side did not promise to accept the Ukraine in NATO (they made the usual oblique statements about “open doors” instead) and the US has even reaffirmed the Minsk Agreements (which, de facto, and possibly even de jure, might create the basis for a disavowal of any Ukie attack on the LDNR).
Again, this is good. The less power the EU Kindergarten has, the less they are likely to force the agenda and draw the adults in the room into a (possibly nuclear) war.
There is also bad news, of course: the 3B+PU clowns all understand that perfectly. For them the choice is stark and, indeed, possibly even existential (via self-destruction only, of course): either war or we become irrelevant in the eyes of the collective West.
So the next two questions are:
- What will the 3B+PU do about this next?
- What will the US do when the 3B+PU does something about it (with the full support of the War Party in the USA!)?
Frankly, I cannot call this one, there are way too many unknowns to make any predictions.
The fact that substantive negotiations have finally replaced the USA’s “unilateralism” (I am being polite here) is a major development and a good one. But that, at best, is just a first step. US politicians are notorious for saying A when negotiating with the Russians and non-A as soon as their media excoriates them for being “weak”.
Alas, what needs undoing or, at least, transforming, is three decades of self-defeating western stupidity!
Will that happen? I don’t know.
Over the next couple of days, we will hear a lot of statements, from all sides, many of them categorical. I suggest that we wait for a little and then revisit the issue again later in the week.
PS: big, very big stuff happening between Russia and India and Russia and China; this is crucial to get the full picture of what is going on right now. I propose to also revisit that later in the week.
Thank you for your observations Saker. I trust and enjoy your evaluations.It was noteworthy (perhaps only to myself) that on the news crawler on the bottom of the screen, one of the big 3 networks had a statement comparing this “eminent invasion” to when Russia “militarily” took Crimea. The problem is that most Americans do not even try to believe anything other than what is shown on these ridiculous networks.
It will be interesting how the meeting gets spun around the world in the upcoming days and what, if any, fallout occurs because of it.
First, the actual information on what happened and was discussed will need to be both a) contained and b) carefully leaked.
Both sides will claim success, Biden a major success, Putin a “constructive” one (today, before the meeting, he described as as a “protocolar obligation” I kid you not!)
Then time will show.
Even with real good will on both sides, it will take years to unfuck what Obama and Trump fucked up… that is the sad reality we live with :-(
but the alternative (wake up to reality in the form of a war) is so much worse that we should be grateful for any step, no matter how preliminary and small, which would take us away from that abyss.
So far the only thing we know about the negotiation, is that the conference ended in a stalemate.
So in reality the Evil Empire got what it wanted: A Delay of war until spring 2022.
It is my suspicion that:
In the meantime NATO nations will be ready for war:
The repeating COVID lock downs are Psy Ops to condition the western population for War.
Denmark is gas hub for Norwegian North Sea Gas to Holland, Germany, Sweden, and Poland.
Last month loud Booms were heard in Denmark (Maybe creation of underground gas depositories).
Energy prices are going up because Europe and Britain is filling op with Gas and Oil.
The delay of war will secure Europe with Russian gas supply during this winter, thereby avoiding a popular uprising against war.
NATO Troops is secretly deploying in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine.
The delay will give NATO time to mobilize Polish, Baltic, Ukrainian, and Israeli forces. maybe even Japan.
By the spring, the Baltic and Norther sea route will become passable.
The spring will secure stabile ground and weather conditions for NATO Tanks and Artillery
Come spring, and Biden´s political power will be threatened, and He will start war to keep it.
That means instant postponement of any Election in all NATO Nations.
Putin had the perfect opportunity to fracture the Fascist network controlling the west, this winter.
So Let’s go Brandon.
Secret deployment…..shit, you just let the cat out of the bag….explains why Mr Putin pulled his troops back from the Ukraine border and stationed them beside the Russian border. Sneaky NATO…..it doesn’t matter what NATO rats do in the dark, or in secret, Russia will send them home in a one-size fits all body bags…that’s a bankable prediction.
NATO has no ability to attack Russia.
They have no inter-operability (national armies cant work together …).
All their gears are over priced so impossible to engage (bribery 4 supply went up and up and up to reach galactical level by generals and politicians since the 1990s).
They can’t stand any loss.
Europe and America populations wont stand any kind of bombing without total panic … and they won’t receive ‘a few’ missiles …
Much more to say … but pointless.
US NATO are in a stalemate, only way to win is to break Russia, China, Iran, North Korea from the inside.
Good luck fifth column!
The EU has changed the Laws in central Europe for transit of foreign troops in peace time.
NATO tested inter-operability during their last 2 major exercises by sending military hardware through Holland – Germany into Poland and Ukraine. And they never came back.
That is why I suggest waking the western population up before the missiles fly.
It seems to me that fifth column has been a greater problem in NATO nations, since 9/11.
A. Dane.. yours is not a happy assessment. I can’t say it’s implausible.
You forget one important thing. Nord Stream app in Germany. That will take long enough. NS shareholders interests are bigger than state / people interests in MaloRussia / NovoRussia.
The only explanation I see , Russia is committed to go to ( global ) war if the red lines are crossed. Maybe Putin presented a military scenario and the consequences for US/EU related to it , that sounded very convincing .
That kind of talk, if it happened, would have been first between Gen Gerasimov and Gen Milley.
And yes, Russia will try to avoid a war at almost any cost.
But she is ready.
Not so much
If (big if) Russia does invade then it would be interesting if, at the same time, China used the opportunity to take Taiwan.
Then we’d really see how ill-prepared the US is.
If I’m not mistaken, Gerasimov and Milley indeed did talk before Putin-Biden conversation.
Si vis pacem para bellum. The good old Romans knew it already.
It looks like Putin is more diplomatic than the minister of defense Shoygu and his generals. But he can not put in jeopardy the security of his country and moving the goalposts toward a nuclear response and war because that is the only one left. If some lunatic US senators say it is better for US to fight Russia far away in Ukraine than closer to their borders, why wouldn’t Russia speak the same language these guys understand ? At least put some pressure, make them feel the warming. 5-10 minutes for Russian hidden ( or not ) missiles to reach some American valuable sites.
I remember when Iran launched 12 ballistic missiles at an American base in Irak and there were no retaliations .Or Iran arresting oil tankers. It could be “Ukrainian ” launch pads or hardware, LNG tankers ,etc.
PS.” Russian invasion of Ukraine “could be a West PsyOp to inhibit the Russian response to an Ukrainian attack in Donbass
Since you mentioned Shoygu diplomacy’s…of course, how else could appear the diplomatic joke “of you won’t take the kind and wise advices offered by Mr. Lavrov, you will understand better the same kind and wise advices offered by Mr. Shoygu” 😁
Quite right on Putin’s red lines. The diplomats, and if necessary military, will negotiate this until March.
Also, watched closely will be supply of more weapons to the Ukies, and the continual bombardment of Donbass.
Those are markers to watch.
However, the nugget in the entire event of the video call is the stated fact that the US will not move troops to the East and more likely will not allow NATO troops into Ukraine.
The West learned in those two hours that Putin means business and will wipe out all threats to Russia if the platform of Ukraine is used to try to mount those threats.
Putin has established his sphere of influence begins with Ukraine. And NATO and/or the US will get a war unlike any war they ever have been in if they try any more movement inside Ukraine.
Working out how the US leaves is what they will be negotiating.
Working out how NATO leaves is what they will be negotiating.
Arranging progress toward a confederated Ukraine (so indicated by special status of Donbass in Minsk 2) is what they will be negotiating.
Only the US can force Ukie action. Putin is forcing the US to force Kiev.
Biden knows he can leave but he can’t stay. (the reverse of Hotel California).
Russia will give guarantees that they won’t “take” Ukraine.
But the de-nazification is up to the US. They can put down the rabid dogs or the North Wind will.
How much Biden lost today is yet to be determined.
But Ukraine is now a waif, no parents, no adopters, poor and shit out of luck. They went West and bought the pig in the poke, and got an empty sack.
Biden may save some of them from the gallows or bullet to the head. But 404 is gone. Cut loose. Abandoned.
If the US doesn’t create a good exit, it will be war because that is all Kiev can do for themselves is start a war.
You cite this:
“However, the nugget in the entire event of the video call is the stated fact that the US will not move troops to the East and more likely will not allow NATO troops into Ukraine.”
But nowhere in the Russian readout is there any such language!!!!!
You have to have the words spoken on Monday that troops would be deployed and words Biden spoke that tough sanctions would be imposed.
Jake Sullivan is spinning the troop deployment crap as if Biden said it.
We realize Biden is a sock puppet but his words are what matter. And Sleepy Joe knows that US troops will not go close to where Russia might be attacking or defending.
He mentioned Romania and Poland would want US troops.
So what. That’s not Ukraine. The issue in front of the two presidents is Ukraine.
So, I think what Biden agreed to do today was to pursue a resolution of Ukraine.
He’s not going to do that with troop movement and armaments.
The move Eastward is over. The Russians will enforce their red line.
That’s what went down today.
Putin got that through the US fogged minds.
That’s how I got it – the american shite was told to pack up and get the hell out of the so-called Ukraine or else! And take their NATO garbage with them. Indeed, the red lines were explained to them ONCE AGAIN in very stark and uncompromising language. All they can bleat about now (for domestic consumpsion and for their vassals), is that “biden” has stopped “Russian invasion” of this “Ukraine” – something that none of them can give a sh*t about.
Political puppetry, especially knowing full well that Russia needs this “Ukraine” as someone who “needs” a hemorroid.
“However, the nugget in the entire event of the video call is the stated fact that the US will not move troops to the East and more likely will not allow NATO troops into Ukraine.”
Unfortunately, this was obvious from the start. Putin didn’t need to state it at this summit. He’d already stated this repeatedly.
And it has zero to do with Ukraine. The neocon goal in Ukraine is not to get Ukraine into NATO. That was the goal back in 2014. That failed when Russia took Crimea and supported the Donbass insurgents.
Today the neocon goal is to gain certain other geopolitical agendas – however hallucinatory – by getting Ukraine to sacrifice itself in a war with Russia. Just like the US usually does with its “allies”: use them for its own geopolitical agenda, get them to sacrifice themselves against a US enemy – then abandon them to their fate.
One can’t be sure what the neocon agendas are, but plenty of people have speculated it has to do with cutting Russia off from the EU in trade and NordStream 2, solidifying EU support against Russia, getting the EU back into the US camp, etc., etc. One can argue these points, but it doesn’t matter. If the neocons believe them, that’s all that matters.
So an attack by Ukraine on Donbass is in my view a done deal. Nothing that may or may not have been said in this summit has any relevance. And I’m pretty sure that Putin knows it, and is simply waiting for the inevitable to play out.
@Richard Steven Hack
“So an attack by Ukraine on Donbass is in my view a done deal.”
I agree with everything in comment except this. Going into war is not simple as that. For example, it is highly unlikely that Ukraine can mobilize sufficient manpower for succesfull attack. If they try to do forced mobilisation, mass deffection is guaranteed. Which means their most zealot units will find them in cauldrons. Putin knows it. Biden knows it. Western “advisors” knows it too.
Neocons do not care.
You miss the point. As you say, everyone knows Ukraine can’t do an effective attack on Donbass, at least not if Russia counter-strikes. You are also correct that the neocons don’t care. That was precisely my point. That is *why* the war is a done deal.
Zelensky, under orders from the US, will initiate the war regardless of Ukraine’s ability to actually implement it in anything approaching success. He doesn’t expect to win with Ukraine forces only. He expects the US and NATO to help him, regardless of what the US and NATO say publicly about *not* helping him. He’s being told by the CIA in Kiev that he *will* be helped and that the US will insure that he stays in power. This is standard CIA playbook.
And in any event, even if he’s not being told that, he also knows he has to do something or he’s out on his butt in the near future – certainly once the Russian transit fees stop flowing. And avoiding the effects of Nordstream 2 requires Russia to be sanctioned, and that can only happen if there is a conflict. He probably also hallucinates that if Russia defeats Ukraine and if he can somehow manage to survive that storm that he will get a “war President” poll bump and be able to retain power (even if only over whatever rump state Russia leaves behind.)
No one can be sure what is going through his head or how much pressure he is under by the right wingers, nor what precisely he’s being told by the CIA and State in contradiction to the US public position. But given the sort of propaganda campaign the US has been running for months now, and the numerous statements of “rock solid support” for Ukraine issued repeatedly, it’s hard to imagine the US suddenly deciding to turn off the spigot and do a 180 just because Biden (allegedly) agreed to continue talks.
Putin apparently said today that Biden was the one to suggest continuing the discussions. I don’t see that this means anything at all except that Biden kicked the can down the street until the conditions are set for the war to start. There was no actual agreement on anything (except supposedly some cybersecurity agreements which were not specified in detail.)
Of course there will be another war, for after all this country was born in a war and never left it, some we rushed to embrace it like the Civil War and World War one where the Sec. Of War told Wilson “we are the great arbitrator of the world” so we must get involved or the second world war where we played behind the scene until we could get involved.
Then around rolled Korea and Vietnam both created wars and the so-called Desert Storm where the preacher got into the scam saying I prayed with old man Bush and this is the thing to do, I guess old Billy never read the Ten Commandments where it says thou shall not kill. Thou shall not lie, thou shall not bear false witness.
Then the so-called war on terror where French Fries became freedom fries where if you ain’t with us, you’re agin us as the shrub would say, so yes if you never made a bet in your life before and a bet comes up that we are going to war with Russia China or some small dirt poor country bet all your money and the back forty on us going to war it’s the only sure bet you will ever have,
As I already said i agree on all your point(s) of view, only in lesser degree on few. You basically said that Ze has big wish and little influence without US. I say he has zero influence and is not in position to have wishes. Anglos military hierarchy does not allow insubordination or ANY deviation from master-plan. Whatever he say is not his own thinking. The fact that popular actor is fast-tracked into presidency gives away Western main problem with Ukies. All their puppets was (and still are) utterly unpopular. (You don’t say!?!) West couldn’t care less if their puppets are popular or not, they had problem with mobilization in 2014-2015. After three waves of it and forced conscription they manage to assemble 100000 men. Obviously, not enough as they were decimated (western sources), Fast-forward into present. Military aged men emigrated in the troves, Illovaisk, Delbatsevo and other debacles imprinted lifelong PTSD into Ukrainian collective mind. Enough said.
Why anyone thinks that, this time, mobilization will go as planned, is beyond me. If they manage to fill units more than 25% that will be miracle. They expects much, much larger numbers so preparation goes on unabated. Since Western goal is not victory, but only means to launch yet another anti-Russian media campaign, the more casualties – the better.
I can not possibly predict how low percentage is enough to cancel attack, but here must be some limit.
As botched attack could backfire horribly for Zelensky AND his handlers. With unpredictable consequences.
Until there is a removal of the excessive Ukrainian forces at the contact line, it will be clear that Zelensky is not backing down from a new offensive on Donbass.
That will also make it clear that the US is in fact backing him on that project – at least the CIA and the neocons, whether or not Biden is doing so.
That’s the bottom line. And the fact that he instantly sent a ship to provoke the Russians in the Kerch Straits – and that immediately after the Biden phone call – pretty much makes it clear what is happening.
A war between Ukraine and Russia is definitely still a high probability.
I don’t agree with your analysis. It simply does not know how to separate posturing from the reality of the situation. You are probably right in that the US neocons don’t care if Russia overruns Ukraine but where you don’t seem to have a handle is in gauging the gap between the hawkish idiots on the Hill and their think-tank “informing” sources on the one hand and the top Pentagon echelons who are dead set against another fiasco a la Kabul, on the other. All US senators know this, including Roger Wicker who advocates US take a “nuclear option” on Ukraine. But this is surely risible bafflegab, a way to ratchet up the rhetoric in the unforgettably inane style of Yulia Timoshenko. Everyone in Washington knows that there is nowhere further US can take Ukraine against Russia. (Hell, the State even had Victoria Nuland fly to Moscow.) And the same fatuous posturing exists around the reality of the US’ ability to replace NS2 supply of gas to Germany and Western Europe. You have a nightly parade of senators and nutters (or nutter senators like John Kennedy) appearing on Fox’es Hannity and Ingraham badmouthing Biden on a sellout to Putin for the NS2 destroying the market for US LNG. But again everyone knows the score. Why would Europe buy US LNG that is four times as expensive than Russian pipeline gas, apart from the huge supply capacity issue? So, I don’t believe the threat of a major clash of arms in Ukraine is a realistic scenario. The US needs at least a neutral Russia in the fight with China for dominance in East Asia. Ukraine has been and will remain a side-show and my feeling is that the US is ready to divest itself of the kind of influence in Eastern Europe the twits of 3B+PU would want it have. It would not be a public retreat but it would be a retreat nevertheless. I believe.
Thanks, my friend, for a very good summary!!
” Biden knows he can leave but he can’t stay ” . I disagree with part of that statement , I think that Russia would allow the U.S.A. to stay with their thumb up their ” A** ES ” , as long as the U.S.A. did not try bringing any weapons into the Ukraine that could be a threat to the Russians.Putin has clearly stated that those weapons would be crossing a ” Red Line ” and Russia would not tolerate it.
This sounds like the opposite of “Roach Motel”: They come in, but they don’t go out.”
LDNR spotters report last few days a very calm situation on the contact line. Some, of course, went into the good ol’ “lull before the storm” explanation, others… well, we don’t know what Gerasimov told Milley. Doesn’t matter, everyone knows what it will end up with if 404 decides to attack. I believe it is Putin’s quote: “serious consequences for Ukrainian statehood”. I’m sure there is a couple-three Kinzhals or Iskanders aimed at the middle of a possible runways for Ze and his “cabinet” escape to make sure they face a war crime court in Moscow. For all I care, there may be already some units of SSO positioned there… just in case.
Assuming that the interpretation most seem to be making here (that the US will cease pushing Ukraine into a military confrontation with Russia) is correct, how does Putin now handle Zelinsky and Ukraine’s fascist regime? What if they want war, with or without Washington’s backing? Does Putin put that nonsense down with force? Or will the Ukies become amenable to negotiation? Can he ram the Minsk accords down their throats in the absence of American guarantees? Or must he entice them with more free gas, more transit fees and selling out the poor souls in Donbas? Seems there are still a lot of uncertainties when Ukraine and its madcap population is factored into the equation. Will the American neocons leap back onto to their war horses if Russian soldiers must cross borders to rescue the ethnic Russians trapped in Ukraine? Putin would never allow their slaughter to honor a deal with Demento Joe, would he? The whole key to finding peace between the US and Russia seems to be Ukraine accepting civilised (and maybe democratic) behavior. Is that likely based on their history? The ones I knew growing up in Chicago after WWII always seemed prone to shady, and downright illegal, behavior.
The Donbass is absolutely vital to Russia’s security. Should the large city of Donetsk with a population of 1 million fall then the Ukie Azov Regiment would be right up on Russia’s border less than 100 km from the large city of Rostov-on-Don. Bear in mind also that Don Bass population is not only ethnically Russian but are also Russian citizens with Russian passports. A fall of the Donbass would be the prelude to an invasion of Russia. This is precisely what the west and NATO have in mind.
Losing Donbass would be a crime against Russia and the Russian people.
Given the extremely limited amount of info published by both sides, IMO it’s close to impossible to make a proper analysis. I wrote the following after reading the Kremlin’s readout and RT’s reporting:
What I see is Biden and Putin talking past each other on Ukraine and NATO expansion, which I see as strengthened by Sullivan’s reaction and Blinken’s previous, knowing, fallacious accusations. Do note that Biden said nothing about Kiev; from the Kremlin’s Russian language readout:
“Joseph Biden, for his part, emphasized the allegedly ‘threatening’ nature of the movements of Russian troops near the Ukrainian borders and outlined the sanctions measures that the United States and its allies would be ready to apply in the event of a further escalation of the situation.”
Coupled with what Germany did regarding NS2, Kiev will likely attack Donbass as it just got the reassurances it wanted. The upshot is it makes no difference how Russia responds since it’s already been judged guilty by the Outlaw US Empire and its German surrogate. IMO, Putin’s best move would be to destroy Ukraine as a potential NATO springboard by moving Russia’s defensive lines Westward to the Dnieper River and Southward to control the entire Black Sea shoreline. Yes, I’m fully aware of the pros and cons debated about this entire situation. But NATO and the West must be taught the lesson it refused to learn in 2008 and pay for the lies of 1989. For if nothing’s done this time, then there will certainly be a next time.
Yes, that’s at odds with your analysis. Yes, perhaps we’ll know more in a few days. This sentence, ” The leaders agreed to instruct their representatives to engage in substantive consultations on these sensitive issues,” is nonsensical given those “representatives” just engaged “in substantive consultations on these sensitive issues” just a few days ago in Stockholm and got nowhere because Blinken and Sullivan have a different agenda from Biden, which is why we read Biden’s words then the Outlaw Empire’s actions are often the opposite–very similar to how Trump was flim-flammed. IMO, we’re seeing a different version of being not agreement capable. The Outlaw US Empire still believes itself to be the Big Dog when it is no longer. Unfortunately, it appears that status will need to be impressed upon it physically.
Kiev will likely attack Donbass as it just got the reassurances it wanted.
I don’t think so.
What if the Ukies do attack, and Russia does STRIKE but NOT move forces in?
Russian standoff weapons are more than enough to neuter “Ze” but they don’t qualify as “invasion”.
I think much will depend on the magnitude of the Russian counter-strike, which itself will depend on precisely what the Ukies will try to pull off.
If I was in “Ze” shoes I would tread very, very carefully here.
The worst problem are the Nazis nutter which he does not control anymore (the latter, by the way, are openly accusing him of incompetence and even treason).
I think that “Ze” ought to do what puppet “president” of Afghanistan did: pack as much money as you can grab, and run for your life.
He might do it too :-)
Hmmm, The Saker, do you think the Nazis will stage the coup against Ze if Biden follows through with the Minsk 2 negotiations?
That is definitely a possibility.
The big unknown is this: who do the the US “advisors” who run the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine really work for, as in, for which faction of the US state.
A coup AGAINST the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine is unlikely.
A could BY the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine is very possible.
So here is the matrix we face:
2 factions in the US government (pro war and pro peace)
2 factions in the Ukie government (loyal to ‘Ze’ or not)
Only time will show how this plays out.
The parties or “factions” to take note of are
1) Demokratychna Sokyra(Democratic Axe)
2) Braty Po Zbroyi(Brothers in Arms)
3) Rukh Proty Kapituliatsii( Movement Against Capitulation)
These are the next generation of political operatives, with many being ATO veterans. At this stage, the motivator does not seem to be greed and money, but the leanings are very right wing somehow combined with liberal and very pro Europe integration.
While I cannot establish any direct links to Western financing, most of the names involved have links or associations with some form of Nuland’s “cookies”.
All of the above parties or factions were out on display in Kyiv on Dec 1, in protest against Ze or the fact that Yermak was not dismissed. That said, Yermak is still a member of the National Security and Defence Council in good standing.
Saker has correctly stated that this has to play out and no way I can read the tea leaves. I sense that behind this wall, the State Department has Yatsenyuk waiting in the wings to take the mantle.
Maybe Ze wants the Russians to invade and neutralize the Nazi factions for him. With them out of the way maybe he could implement the Minsk agreements.
Even if Biden needed the summit for PR reasons, the Russians, who owe him zilch, would not have agreed to it UNLESS there was something of substance to discuss.
The leaders of superpowers (and their advisors!) don’t just “talk past each other”.
For one thing, that would be futile and very costly.
No, “Biden” and the Kremlin are definitely talking to each other now.
Yes, late. Yes, too late.
But still better than war
We will just agree to disagree. I agree very much with Finnian Cunningham’s assessment that what we’re seeing is “the ghost of Brzezinski is trying to make a second coming for Ukraine” regardless if Russia actually invades or not since it will suffer the sort of political defeat you’ve discussed quite often. The EU, of course besides Kiev, is the big loser since the Russophobes will secure their wish to terminate all Russian hydrocarbon imports into Europe from the North.
I’ve followed Russian policy for decades and know they prefer dialog almost regardless the situation, so they accented to the talks suggested by the Outlaw US Empire.
And again, there’s simply too little disclosure as to what was actually discussed and said to make any concrete analysis. Hopefully that will change over the next few days.
Today, Putin provided some clarification during his presser with the Greek PM, <a href="http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67320Russian transcript. There were two questions addressing the video-summit, with the second by Andrei Kolesnikov, of Kommserant having the greatest bearing. For those lacking machine translation, here’s what was said:
“Mr President, please dispel perhaps the main doubt: is Russia going to attack Ukraine or not? If not, why not? And if so, why?
“Vladimir Putin: This is a provocative question. Russia pursues a peace-loving foreign policy, but it has the right to ensure its security, as I have already said, in the medium or longer term. And we are discussing this with our partners – with all our partners, including yesterday’s interlocutor, President of the United States of America, Mr Biden.
“We cannot but be concerned about the prospect of Ukraine’s possible admission to NATO, because this will certainly be followed by the deployment of appropriate military contingents, bases and weapons that threaten us. I have already mentioned this in general terms in response to the previous question. In my opinion, in the answer to your [question], I will specify my theses. To this extent, I think it will be enough to answer today.
“We proceed from the assumption that our concerns will be heard at least this time. Although until now, over the previous decades, we have consistently talked about our concerns and asked not to do so, NATO’s infrastructure has inevitably approached our borders, and now we see Mk 41 missile defense systems in Poland and Romania. We have every reason to believe that the same thing will happen if Ukraine joins NATO, but on Ukrainian territory.
“Well, how can we not think about it? It would just be a criminal inaction on our part to watch what happens there. That is the subject of our negotiations.
“I repeat once again: we have agreed that we will create an appropriate structure that will be able to deal with this in detail and submit relevant proposals.
“I must say that this idea was formulated by the President of the United States – I agreed with it and said that we would soon present our thoughts and proposals on this matter. Until we have formulated this, it is probably too early to talk about their content, but I understand that this is causing not just increased interest, but legitimate interest in the Russian public, European and international in general. Of course, we will do this as publicly as possible.” [My Emphasis]
So, either Biden’s lying again or he’s sincere. Putin said he thinks Biden’s being sincere. We’ll know soon enough. That Putin said Russia’s “thoughts and proposals” will be done “as publicly as possible” shows the great degree of difference when it comes to actual operative democracy within Russia versus the Outlaw US Empire.
Verdade, Saker sempre falou sobre o prejuízo que a Rússia sofrerá de qualquer maneira atacando ou não, pois o discurso russofobico, como já foi observado por um outro comentarista aqui, vem sendo cevado a muito tempo pela mídia quadrilheira dos eua e já está irremediavelmente grudado na cabeça dos ocidentais descerebrados.
Então o que fica no centro do debate não é tanto se haverá guerra mas sim de que forma a Rússia responderá se ela acontecer.
Os russos continuarão tentando apaziguar os ânimos a qualquer custo ou darão aquela reposta que tire definitivamente a vontade que os eua tem de provocar persistentemente arruaças pelo mundo mas que também pode desencadear a conflagração definitiva?
Seja como for, quer me parecer que a situação está ficando intoleravel na medida em que os russos não podem ficar indefinidamente reféns da tirania ianque. Alguma coisa terá de ser feita para demarcar espaço. O que será ninguém tem ideia pois nunca li aqui tantos comentários contraditórios sobre os desdobramentos dessa situação. Podem também incluir meu comentário nesse festival de especulação. Está certo, vamos nos dar um desconto pois com as as parcas informações que temos só podemos mesmo especular. Quando o próprio Martianov sugere que os russos já tem mísseis prontos para abrir buracos na pista que o palhaço presidente nazisionista usará para fugir da Ucrânia para não ser julgado por crimes de guerra, podemos ver como o cenário está realmente nebuloso para todo o mundo. Se a coisa está nesse pé por que os mísseis russos já não estão apontados diretamente para covil do fascista?
True, Saker has always talked about the damage that Russia will suffer anyway whether attacking or not, because the Russian-phobic speech, as noted by another commentator here, has long been fed up by the gangster media in the US and is already hopelessly stuck in the minds of mindless Westerners.
So what is at the heart of the debate is not so much whether there will be war but how Russia will respond if it does happen.
Will the Russians continue to try to calm tempers at any cost or will they give that answer that definitely takes away the desire that the USA has to persistently provoke disturbances around the world, but which could also trigger the definitive conflagration?
In any case, it seems to me that the situation is becoming intolerable as the Russians cannot be held hostage to Yankee tyranny indefinitely. Something will have to be done to demarcate space. No one has any idea what it will be, as I have never read here so many contradictory comments about the consequences of this situation. You can also include my comment on this festival of speculation. That’s right, let’s give ourselves a discount because with the meager information we have we can only speculate. When Martianov himself suggests that the Russians already have missiles ready to blow holes in the lane that the clown Nazi president will use to flee Ukraine so as not to be tried for war crimes, we can see how cloudy the picture really is for the whole world.
With respect dear Saker, precisely _nothing_ came out of it for Russia, with the Blob promising afterwards that military “assistance to Ukraine will continue” and that ‘Nordstream 2 is still in our sights’…they’re just buying time to socialize this whole thing so that one day they can slam NS2 and say “see, Russian troops everywhere, we had to do something you western sheeple’.
Paul Craig Roberts has always been right on this issue. Russia has made some strategic errors, trusting “our partners” and it could continue that trend…
Have you even bothered reading what I wrote??
Comments like this one make me wonder…
that kind of nonsense is just spewed on autopilot: just a few slogans put together to look like a paragraph.
slogans, slogans and more slogans.
Maybe the Saker Blog’s comment section is not quite for you?
Thanks for the update Saker.
I like your matter of fact way to accept the harsh situation. In the same time, I can feel between the lines, your generous Mitgefühl compassion with all of us on the whole planet.
Nice to have someone, who is as least sometimes sober (imagine what stuff you need to take to support being POTUS (X.. .), you Andrei, to keep us up to date on Eurasia.
I was quiet reader for some time now, but started to express myself a few weeks ago.
Thank you, all mods, the community and people that support you all for this honest and peaceful, open minded project.
Love to all of you
P. S. :
Can you please refer me to some English and French content on (especially West-) Africa?
You know this site? Really helpful to understand basic national Geography, it lets you drag countries around the globe, to challange common north centric way of illustration.
I tend to think that the US remains non-agreement capable and this event will not preclude a UAF attack on the Donbass, egged on by the neocons in Washington.
I agree completely. Biden just blew smoke up Putin’s ass – and I suspect Putin knows it and will merely wait for the inevitable betrayal to play out. There was nothing in this summit to change the situation on the ground.
An attack on the Donbass by the UAF is already precluded assuming there are any rational actors left to influence decisions in the Ukraine. The low probability of such an attack already simplifies the predictive equation.
An all out ground assault against the Donbass would be suicidal for the UAF army. Sustained air support is required for such operation to succeed. The UAF air force would be neutralized by Russia probably within minutes of the onset of hostilities should this red line be crossed. It is Russia who would completely dominate the air. The UAF army would then be exposed to relentless precision artillery, rocket fire and attack from the air. And that’s not to even mention the destruction of Ukrainian logistical capability. It would be a meat grinder extraordinaire. US/NATO won’t come to their aid. Remember, they have too many myths to uphold.
An attack on the Donbass by the UAF would also amount to betting the entire farm on the outcome of an operation that will most certainly fail. The annihilation of the attacking UAF alone would most likely quickly precipitate the collapse of the Ukrainian government.
It ain’t gonna happen, unless the lunatics do take charge.
the demented empire has been doing that—or rather @ least imagining it is doing so for years…however putin is paying great attention to the details put in place whilst the empire preens & shits on the board: minsk, an agreement ratified by the unsc, the cap stone.
As I’ve suggested, none of that matters if the goal is in fact to have Ukraine start a war it cannot win, so that other agendas can be accomplished (or hallucinated to be accomplished) by the neocons.
This is something people forget. Whatever is allegedly happening is usually superceded by what is happening in the background. As someone once said, “Coincidence means you weren’t paying attention to the other half of what was going on.”
Why would Zelensky go along with that? Simple. 1) He’s being lied to about US and NATO support (and they are dismissing what the US and NATO publicly say as “disinformation”) if he goes along and is desperate to believe the lies, and/or 2) he’s going to lose power regardless so he’s actually is betting the farm on getting some benefit from shaking up what he sees as a hopeless status quo – and the neocons are perfectly happy with that.
In fact, it’s possible that the CIA isn’t telling him he will get US/NATO support while the neocons are telling him that *therefore* he might as well start the war. Add to that pressure from the Ukrainian right-wingers and he may believe he has no choice.
“It ain’t gonna happen, unless the lunatics do take charge.” Well, you have a comedian and a bunch of neo-Nazis in charge, along with the CIA and the neo-cons. What part of that doesn’t look to you like lunatics?
Do you have an explanation for these escalation of tensions which then are stopped or are transformed in PR operations?
April 2018 Syria. It looked like the US and his lapdogs France and the UK were going to try hit Syria hard despite Russian warnings opening the path to a clash with Russia and then they do nothing more than a PR cruise missiles attack doing nothing. Back to threats and sanctions.
January 2020 Iran. The US kills Soleimani. Iran strikes back. The US has the casus beli it needs to attack Iran and then does nothing. Back to threats and sanctions.
April 2021 ukraine. Massive propaganda and preparation extensive nato deployments in the black sea. FONOPs. Ukraine deploys troops ready to attack. Then the US asks for talks. Back to threats and sanctions.
December 2021 ukraine. Basically a remake of what happened in April but with even more hysteria. Again the US asks for talks. Back to threats and sanctions.
Same could be said for Taiwan in october/movember 2021. FONOPs and provocations in the China sea. Big statements from blinken. China says she is ready. Then the US asks for talks. Back to threats and possibly sanctions.
Why are they doing that? Are they trying to shake and squeeze a target and then stop and ask for talks to see if the target is ready to give something? Then they switch to another target and do the same thing and because each time the target gives nothing they repeat the same process again and again?
The answer is blackmail. The empire is hoping that the threat of annihaliation will be sufficient enough to make Russia and China surrender. Madman theory. Act mad enough so that the opponent out of fear of war makes concessions. Also derail Belt and Road initiative by making as many fires as possible and make life difficult for China as well as Russia. Out of spite and to weaken them eventually.
You are correct but the US does not do this out of spite. BRI (along with the Russian military and natural resource component) does represent a real threat to the IMF and World Bank. These “development” banks are the central component of how the US extracts resources for its world empire.
The US is now losing turf. For every country that gets on board with BRI that is one less country for the IMF. Especially, if BRI proves to work to the “mutual benefit” of both the donor and recipient nations. When we look at it through this lens BRI is a great threat to the IMF and World Bank.
The Horn of Africa (and African continent) is where this Cold War war is getting hotter. I expect to see a lot of destabilization efforts and proxy wars in the near future. Ethiopia, Somaliland (a US-supported breakaway region) Djibouti, and Sudan, Eritrea are currently being targeted by the US. BRI has been working well in Ethiopia, China has a military base in Djibouti, Russia is building a naval base in Sudan.
I expect to see the US to achieve some victories and losses in Africa.
This is not about 3B+PU. This is about the west wanting Russia’s resources and being angry about Putin kicking out the traitors. And also world power. Any country that does not open it’s borders for plunder and goes it’s own sovereign way is enemy. As I stated in previous comments: Until American as well as European people mobilize in the streets by the millions and by acts of civil disobedience do not grind the AZ elites business to halt, and not overthrow the ruling class, things like these will continue to happen. The war party in the USA needs to be deprived of it’s power. Citizen arrest, mass protests, you name it. Until the war party is gone, the world will be in danger. This has happened before. In Iran, when Shah was overthrown (Shah remember was seen as impregnable while he was in power). The Iranian troops, trained by US, and having privileges did decide to abandon the regime. When the foot soldiers of the elite defect, the ruling classes are finished, along with the empire. It is a long shot, but sometimes the long shots are the ones worth playing at. The empire along with the ruling class is a lot more fragile than they appear. We may fail, but if there is no attempt, then the failure is virtually guaranteed. As long as there is a fight, there a chance, however remote it is.
The problem are not Baltic states or Poland and Ukraine. How is it that the world superpower is being influenced by the minor nations on the other side of the planet, about which Americans know virtually nothing about? Only 16% of Americans can pinpoint Ukraine on the map, and some of the Americans even think Ukraine is an island in Pacific ocean. And Ukraine really is not something Americans discuss over the kitchen table. Which is understandable. The point is USA for all it’s power can ignore the 3B+PU. Banderist community in USA is not as powerful and never was as powerful as in Canada. And in USA banderist community’s power is minor to AIPAC. Also Canada and USA brought the Nazi communities over after WWII and nurtured them. Also even if crisis over Ukraine is resolved there are several other hotspots that can boil over. South China Sea over Taiwan, attack on Iran with unpredictable consequences, Syria, India and Pakistan dispute over Kashmir, which does have potential of boiling over sometime in the future. India Pakistan is conflict which is ignored often and overlooked. It is known that even small scale Nuclear war can end Civilization. Also North Korea.
I just want to say at the end, as a Ukrainian that I do not like what is happening, and deeply saddened by the currents state of affairs. It is truly sad to see Russia and Ukraine with back turned to one another. If there is anything that the Empire is good at, is divide conquer, and propaganda. I do not hate Russia, and have no intention of doing so. I want to commend Russian leadership for having special talent in dealing with a mental delusional patient who can kill us all, and standing in a way of WW III. I understand the frustration when Russia shows self restraint, however I think it is correct strategy. Russia along with China are in situation, in regards to the empire “damn if you do, damn if you don’t”. We live in the world where there are no easy answers or solutions. If Russia does put it’s foot down, and I am not sure as to what exactly Mr. Roberts means by putting the foot down, there is a risk that the elites might lash out in self destructive manner. I read one article few years back, at the end there was a qute: “the only question is: wheteher neocons in washington realizing they have lost will take the whole world with them” More aggressive rhetoric will only make things worse. Beacuse the Empire will respond even with more aggressive rhetoric, unless it wants to make itself out as a weak. The politeness and talking tot he enemy is the right way to go. Once a major war happens, there will be no future for us, and war must be avoided at all costs. Not all Ukrainians agree with what is happening, and oppose Nazi’s. They are maybe small minority, but they are there. People such as Michael Pogrebinskii, late Oles Buzina, Edward Lozansky, to name a few. The sad truth is, due to massive propaganda Ukrainians se West through the rose colored eyes. There is no knowledge of Wests crimes. I was myself subjected to propaganda in 1990’s, when I was younger. In Ukraine, there is no understanding or appreciation of how evil ruling elites in West are. Ukrainians sadly underestimate or not understand the Wests role in Ukraine’s destruction. The root of the problem, as Ukrainians understand are corrupt oligarchs, but the Wests role is unknown.
In addition Bandera as awful as it is, is amateur compared to Churchill for example, who played a major role in starting the cold war. Churchill once said when learning about the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki that he hoped the bomb will be dropped on Moscow. And in the West he is considered the great man. Also Noam Chomsky once remarked that if Nuremberg Trial were to be held today, then every single US President going back to WW II at least would have been hanged for crimes against humanity. The problem is not Kiev Nazis, as nasty as they are. The root of the problem are the warmongers in Washington D.C and London, and their lust for domination. They are far worse Nazis, even if they do not carry around Nazi symbols or worship Hitler.
I enjoyed reading your very well written and thoughtful comments. And I agree that Russia should try speaking to the Western Powers as one speaks to a deranged madman with a gun threatening to kill innocents. Russia should attempt to peacefully de-escalate the situation. And in fact by use of their outstanding statemanship Putin and Lavrov have been doing that for years and years. But all these talks are merely delaying the inevitable. As talks have progressed, NATO has marched east. The UK has despised Russia since the 1700s and has done everything possible to attack, undermine, infiltrate, corrupt, delegitimize, and ultimately destroy Russia. The Catholic West and Poland have hated Russia even longer. At every turn of the screw, the West seeks to destroy Russia. The banner on this blog even reads, “Stop the Empire’s war on Russia”.
Most readers of this blog already know this is a spiritual war, a fight about darkness vs light. The AngloZionist empire has been slowly hijacked by the forces of Satan at its highest levels. This includes governments, banks, corporations, media, entertainment, and information technology. The peoples of the West have no clue about what is really going on. Each year, the darkness attacks their communities, their churches, their schools, their customs, their morals, their society and ultimately Western Civilization itself. The goal is complete one world domination. This project has been ongoing for a few hundred years and may take a few more hundred years to complete.
Most especially, the satanic forces desire to destroy Russia. The Holy Russian Orthodox Church and all its monasteries and libraries are the last final bastion of Christian freedom left on earth. With Russia out of the way, all the other smaller Christian states can be attacked and destroyed and finally the Truth can be extinguished. (Of course we know this plan will ultimately fail because the gates of hell shall not prevail against the Church, Matt 16:18).
So my point is: Western aggression against Russia is never going to stop. The West is never going accept a proposal to peacefully ‘back down’ and let bygones be bygones and live peacefully in a multi-polar world. Even if Russia is able to successfully defuse today’s Ukraininan situation, 5 years from now the West will be back at it again. The AZ empire will not stop until Russia and Christianity is destroyed.
So again to return to the madman scenario. Putin knows all this. He knows that the West is the madman that cannot be trusted and whose promises are worthless. Any guarantee offered by POTUS today will be ‘walked back’ by a statement tomorrow. But Putin knows this is all about optics in today’s international press. He cannot be seen banging a shoe on a desk. He cannot appear angry or confrontational. He can merely state his red lines calmly to the madman.
I am much less optimistic than Saker. Even though America politicians may feel that the US is calling the shots here, it is in fact The City of London that is the head of this current beast. They have come too far in 50 years to back down now. Already they are winning by forcing Russia to stay mobilized during winter. The West can keep up this long simmering pressure for months. Or at least until the financial collapse occurs. Look for Atlanticist agents in Russia to continue their attempts at destabilization. Either way, the War is coming. It can be delayed, it can be postponed . . . . but Satan will not stop until every inch of Russia is controlled by London and every Orthodox church is burned to the ground.
So get ready Putin. Russia has suffered Western attack again and again since the 1600s. As before, there can be no surrender.
As an American, and a convert to the Holy Orthodox faith, I pray for a peaceful resolution to this where millions of people are not needlessly slaughtered. May the light of Christ, and truth of his resurrection, bring inspiration to us all to keep striving against the powers of darkness. Through the prayers of the All Holy Most Blessed and Ever Virgin St. Mary the Theotokos. Holy Mother St. Mary, pray for us!
Well it is best for you as an American to try to enlighten you fellow countrymen. The Empire is a lot more fragile than it appears. I am optimistic in a sense that I sense Empire’s fear of being destroying by Russia. The Empire is trying to compensate for this weakness by appearing tough and lashing out. Empire knows Russia can destroy the Empire, and knows of new weapons. Take care.
What kind of shape will Americastan be in in five years if it lasts that long? It is now, never, or nuclear war unless now has already sailed into international waters which is probably the case. With any luck, we will see a U.S. “diplomat” pull a Khrushchev on a desk/table at the U.N while being as wild-eyed as Rick Santelli.
An interesting point noted by RT was that Biden had his top 3 foreign policy/nat sec aides around him while it appears Putin was alone (save a translator in the next room). https://www.rt.com/usa/542496-biden-putin-call-company/
The optics from the Russian side show that there is one man who is clearly in charge at the Kremlin. In contrast, on the US side there is clearly no way Biden can be left alone for than 10 seconds and he has to be propped up by a team.
This points to a larger problem: in the US, even when the POTUS is not suffering from early dementia, no matter what he wants to commit to, there is Congress/media/establishment operatives who undermine, dilute or even completely reverse commitments. For this reason, as has been noted by the Russians, the US is not agreement-capable.
So for the sake of argument, even IF Biden wanted to go forward with a legally binding document not to encroach on Russian security interests as Putin would like, there is no way it will get approval domestically especially in the weakened state he and the Dem party are in now.
So the worrying thing for Russia is that not only is a near waste of time talking to Biden, there is no single person Putin can talk to in the US who can give the kind of guarantees Russia is looking for.
This dearth of leadership in fact extends currently to the West as a whole: with Merkel going/gone, so too has the last of sober leaders in the West, leaving just a bunch of short-sighted, opportunistic idiots.
An interesting point noted by RT was that Biden had his top 3 foreign policy/nat sec aides around him while it appears Putin was alone (save a translator in the next room)
Correct, you are spot on here.
But even if it is the collective “Biden” who wanted to talk 5 times, I am grateful for that.
And if Biden’s intentions were more along the lines of (pick 1 or more):
1) Try to mollify Putin by lying so he can turn his attention to China.
2) Try to show he’s “Presidential” by “forcing” Putin to talk to him as often as possible.
3) Try to snow Putin while intending to do the exact opposite as he is stating.
4) Is so befuddled that he thinks he wants to do one thing while ending up doing the exact opposite.
In short, I think you’re allowing yourself to be seduced into thinking Biden is more honest than he is, much like everyone – including a lot of anti-war people – assumed Obama was serious in wanting to be a “war President” – despite starting and supporting four more wars than Bush.
I think it’s far more prudent to be pessimistic about Biden’s intentions than grasp at every supposedly “positive” result of these sorts of meetings. Every single thing Biden has said in previous meetings has been undermined within 24 hours by his administration. At some point one has to believe Biden is simply lying about everything – which would certainly be no surprise given past Presidents.
I still recall in 2009 or 2010 when Brazil and Turkey wanted to negotiate a deal with Iran. Obama sent both Presidents a letter outlining the deal the US would accept. They got that deal. 24 hours later Obama and Clinton rejected the deal, which prompted the Brazilian President to release the letter, showing Obama as a complete and utter liar.
Regardless of what is claimed was said in this meeting, it is premature to suggest a positive outcome until that outcome is actually manifest on the ground. If there isn’t an actual withdrawal of excessive Ukrainian troops from the contact line within, say, the next month, then nothing has changed. This is especially true if, as I suggest elsewhere in this thread, the neocons have a different agenda at this time then the issue of moving US troops to eastern Europe or getting Ukraine into NATO.
Or maybe Gina Cheri Walker and Jill Tracy Jacobs had a pleasant conversation with two men in black suits with a steering column and ball-peen hammer about how important it was for Jill’s husband to run for sock puppet in-chief for their own health and well-being, or something like that.
If someone were trying to panhandle Mr Putin for 500 roubles, he wouldn’t need advisers or backup. This was hardly different. He may even have handed over a couple of small notes.
1 – American leaders underestimate Russians as much as the latter do not act as a respectable super-predator (Empire). A technological sense of superiority towards Russia is omnipresent, even in warfare.
2 – American leaders fear and do not underestimate China because of the same reason, since that China is far more expansionist than Russia, and as much expansionist as the US, in the imperial dimensions of trade and economical and financial dominance.
Therefore anything that Russia does with China, especially in the economical and financial domain, will be taken much more seriously in terms of forcing a change of behaviour.
That is the unblocked wing of the chessboard.
This reminds me of when Philip II of Macedon was conquering Greek city-states and Sparta was the only one left. Philip sent a message to the Spartans saying “If I invade Lakonia you will be destroyed, never to rise again.” The Spartans replied with one word, “If.” :D
Excellent analysis Saker
You do not actually say it but imply it strongly, I rather think that the REAL negotiation was between Milley and Gerasimov, with the meetup more PR and polishing the detail.
Yes of course the USA is not agreement capable, but it seems that their military can still do basic maths/strategy and have realised that if it gets to a shooting war, chances are the USA and NATO allies might lose.
Biden or some of his advisors have finally got the point and are backing off. Of course Trump (unlike Clinton) also got the point, way back in 2016 (or at least he had no wish to go to war with Russia). Just about everything he did was showmanship- talk tough but make sure it did not escalate. The FUKUS attack on Syria was just such a one. Trump was following the Kissinger playbook. Be nice to Russia so US can go after China and Iran. Trouble was that that Kissinger doctrine was already past its use by date when Trump arrived.
The thing is that after coasting along in the 90s, sure of their world domination, the USA like all empires, got complacent. China, quietly grew its economy and skill set, such that until 2008 or so the world still treated it as a poor backward nation of no real consequence. Russia, miraculously revived. Meanwhile the US got worked up about the ME and the Israeli dream.
Somewhere about 2010, the USA started to notice the trends but was still overly complacent. In the case f Russia, the USA was convinced that all the tried and true mechanisms would work to throttle its rebirth. They started to run the program:
1. Direct looting of resources by oligarchs- check – this worked
2. internal separatists (Chechnya (as in China now) – Umph why didn’t it work, think they?
3. Destabilise neighbours and make them hostile – Uraine, Georgia, Belorus colour revolution
4. Encourage neighbours to attack Georgia – whoops, whoops Crimea.
5. Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions – whoops why aren’t they working
6. Manipulate the oil price to crash the Russian economy- working in the 1980s, so lets try again.
7. PR campaign and make the feel bad- Olympics, world cup novichok – gee it doesn’t seem as effective as in 1960.
8. Outspend on the military times 20. Again this just is not working the way they expected.
Basically the USA is comping to the end of the program and their “treatments” are not working. Complacency over
“Two brutally corrupt world leaders”.
That kind of gives it away. Whatever your particular definition of corrupt might be I suppose that the perception of course does appear that way if one only observes from a fixed point of view, or as I would argue a less sophisticated, less well informed perspective.
The rot of america is truly epic.
Russia? Not even close.
FYI – I sent the “Two brutally corrupt world leaders” comment where it belongs: to trash.
So the comment you (aptly) replied to is gone, sorry about that!
Let’s just say that a (well-known) troll sneaked this one by, but got the reward he deserved a tad later :-)
America is a decomposing corpse that stinks up the Planet…
Russia is a Slavic Christian Powerhouse that inspires the Planet Earth…and quite possibly the whole of the Universe….
Born and raised Irish Catholic…I have no use for Western Christianity of any kind any more…
“Born and raised Irish Catholic…I have no use for Western Christianity of any kind any more…”
I would invite/recommend you to be Christened in the Serbian Orthodox Church – become a fraternal brother.
There will be no war in the Ukraine. If the missiles start flying, the gas supply to the EU is terminated.
I was surprised to see Chinese CGTN parroting the western stance on “Imminent Ukranian invasion … build up of Russian force …”
Could it be bacause of recent Russian-Indian summit. Anyone with clues why
It’s best to not get too carried away with The War Party. Most of those listed don’t actually want war. But they do relentlessly pursue particular interests. Those interests want tension, hysteria and confusion to keep the population divided and distracted. But most of all they want a big fat defense budget to keep the money, profits and political donations flowing. A war that destroys the West’s economy is not a war they will pursue. The Deep State, the MIC, the Pentagon, Wall Street and the media for which they write the scrip are not going to allow a serious war. Biden and the White House are not opposing these elements when Biden negotiates with Russia. Biden and the White House reflect the latest strategies of these elements relative to actual reality–which they likely fully understand. Generals are not interested in losing wars. And CEOs, bankers, and investors are businessmen, not fanatics. Doubt that anything has or will fundamentally changed. The thief tried all the doors and they were locked. Time, perhaps, for a slightly new tact until a weakness appears.
Is the Minsk agreement history? It doesn’t seem like Zelensky is interested in implementing it unless pushed by Biden. Did Biden assure Putin anything towards its implementation? If there is no progress soon then it is history. Its failure will reflect badly on Putin as he was the main driver. Merkel didn’t do much and is gone. Time will tell.
Based on Sullivan’s press conference, it seems like they laid out the consequences for Russia’s move into Ukraine and threatened Russia with high cost and its gas flow through NS 2. Haven’t heard from the Russian side on what they achieved?
Vladimir Putin has significant leverage with the U$A as it plans to focus on China. It doesn’t seem like the Empire is assuring Russia of its security or shifting much. Is Russia updating China on the conference call? Will Russia and China coordinate their responses?
The Empire has started its attacks on China through the Olympics and is being joined by its lackey, Australia. The Chinese New Year is on February 1st, 2022. What is Empire’s plan?
Propaganda, and more of it. Last night Victoria Nuland was on PBS. It was a staged event to get her neocon ideaology installed into the minds of US viewers making it seem like Russia is about to invade with no provocations required.
The US government and media are following some plan because it looks like they are all on board with Blinken also , warning Lavrov that we will not allow them to invade but then we don’t get to hear Lavrovs reply., of course. We are being bombarded with half truths, more so lately , on both Russia and China.
I think this backing off by the neocons, which is clearly what happened here, is due to one reason. Hypersonic missiles. That’s it. They are in service, they are now getting mass produced, and they are unstoppable. They can sink the entire US fleet very quickly. The US Generals who matter know this. This message is finally getting to all the neocon chickenhawks in the State Department.
This is a huge source of embarrassment for the military industrial complex and all the idiotic ‘exceptionalists’ in the US government – which is why you never hear about this on the mainstream media.
There is an old Serbian saying, ‘jaca kera jebe’. Meaning ‘the stronger dog f%$ks’. Very crude, but very true. Guess what, Russia’s technological advances in missile technology means they are now the stronger dog. The new world order is over, and new new world order has begun.
I disagree for two reasons:
1) Neocons don’t care about hypersonic missiles. They don’t operate in the real world, and neither do the rest of the Washington elites, as Andrei Martyanov has repeatedly emphasized.
2) The neocons don’t expect this to escalate to that level anyway, because the US and NATO will not respond to the Russia destruction of the Ukrainian military with a military response. The neocons intend to achieve a negative geopolitical response to Russia on the part of the US and EU. This they hallucinate will be a great victory and push them closer to “isolating” Russia. Whether this will happen in reality is irrelevant if it’s what the neocons believe.
So I don’t any evidence in this summit whatsoever that the neocons have “backed off”. Biden just kicked the can down the road until the conditions are set for the war to begin. The US and NATO will do nothing but make noise and threatening gestures while throwing Ukraine to the wolves to achieve their secondary objectives. the original objectives in 2014 was Ukraine in NATO and the Russians cut off from the Black Sea. Putin nixed that. Now the neocons have moved on to secondary objectives. That’s all that’s happening here.
Biden is certainly working on the behalf of the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council and its member corportations.
( https://www.usubc.org/site/usubc-members-and-associate-members-list ). I wonder what they will be saying about all of this. Will their “emerging market” still be all that emerging now that the eastern Ukraine will not so easily be up for grabs?
I really mean are there not more important things in this world for a super power like the U.S. to worry about rather than put the world at risk of war?
In summary, only loser of the day is the Ukraine Junta.
Why because they now know 100 % that nobody(US/UK/Nato/Can etc…) will ever come to ‘save’ them military.
Their crazy dream is over.
They are left alone in ‘the cold’…a ‘coup’ against the Ze is now possible, even likely sooner than later.
Ze is in the corner, the score is 4/0 for the other ‘team’, and one minute remaining to play.No way to win.
Two possibilities: if he wants to stay alive, take his private jet and leave forever(he probably holds a few passports of different nationalities?).Direction Regina or Saskatoon(even more borring places than Ukraine).
Or he goes ‘suicidal’ and launch and attack he will also lose even bigger and probably his life too?
If there is a coup, it will not come from the populace(the live in fear for 7 years), it will be or an oligarchs sponsored one or a military one with or without nazis gangs.
More likely he will go to Israel, or the US.
If we go back to the beginning of the Cold War, it is clear to everyone that everything was a lie, basically due to the danger from Russia-USSR, and now, why would Russia attack Ukraine, which is a failed state and will soon fall apart. The West and the United States have no principles or any parts or duties, let alone responsibilities. NATO’s success is only in the wrong thing, because they turned the language upside down, rearranged the language, changed it, war is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength, disease is health, and so on. and it is a very insidious way. This is the ideology at the root of all the problems of humanity – the hegemony of the United States and the West, invasions are humanitarian interventions, coups are democratic revolutions, the destruction of states and peoples is the advancement of democracy. This hypocrisy, Lie and Pride is the main ruin of the collapse of the West and the United States, and the world is rapidly separating from them.
A good article from the Russian press on US-Russian relations:
Are the hawks in the White House that stupid not to understand Putin’s messages?
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/world/149821-usa_russia/?path=world.americas&fbclid=IwAR3O2Z7pbzY8D8OhOymqKSDdYTPjH2h69JxuaakZid3-nftzr6lkhwWK7GM
Unfortunately, I believe none of this is true. The “summit” achieved nothing.
In my view, Biden has already signed off on a Ukrainian offensive against the Donbass next year – probably within a couple of months. Whatever he told Putin was simply a lie. And he has no need to call Zelensky – whatever he or his flunkies in the CIA station in Kiev tells Zelensky is just more lies about how the US has “rock solid support” for Ukraine. In reality, Biden and the neocons have every intention of selling Ukraine down the river.
The neocons are doing what they always do: use some country to achieve their own hallucinatory geopolitical agendas, seduce that country to attack a more powerful enemy by promising “rock solid support” – then abandon them to their fate. Recall the Shia in Iraq and the Kurds in Syria.
Putin undoubtedly knows this. Russia undoubtedly has already drawn up an operational order to deal with it. Ukraine will attack Donbass in the next few months, Russia will destroy Ukraine. It’s a done deal. The US will use the result to force the EU to cancel NordStream 2, to reduce economic trade with Russia, and assorted other mostly pointless actions which will only hurt the EU, do little damage to Russia, and allow the neocons to believe they have achieved some great geopolitical victory.
The only people hurt will be Ukrainians and the EU. And of course, the US electorate will be even more ignorant than they were before.
I believe the same. 👍
Let me reflect on Lavrov’s “nightmare scenario” after recent OSCE meeting.
What changed now, after Biden- Putin talk and why? I still think they are bluffing big time and are about to fold.
Most of the US press is foaming at the mouth anti-Russian. Except for the highest rated pundit on TV Tucker Carlson. He is the only one that seeks to keep the US and Russia at peace.Here is his take on the situation tonight:
US part of UKUS duopoly invested huge amount of resources in Ukraine. Now, when it is obvious that there won’t be return of investment, they want to cut the losses. UK part is not happy with this. This is more than usual familly quarrel. To maintain good appearance, Anglos family syndicate is using intricate politicaly correct lingo.
It can be confusing.
An update on what Russia has to deal with in Ukraine:
Ukrainian President praises Nazi collaborators
I think that Russia is defeated here.
There will be no formal assurance that Ukraine would not join NATO.
Very soon, US missiles shall be placed in Ukraine.
So, Russia gained nothing.
A country with territorial disputes cannot join Nato, they will have to resolve that first.
Ukraine cannot join Nato unless they officially recognize Donbass and Crimea as being separated from Ukraine, but that is suicide for Ukie leadership. Implementing Minsk agreement means creating a confederacy with pro-Russians thus distancing itself from Nato membership. So what can Ukie leadership then do to get Ukr into Nato? They might blackmail Russia to change the Minsk agreement by bluffing/threatening to genocide/expel Donnbass residents. Russia sees through Ukie blackmail, Russia does not want to change the Minsk agreement.
So what could Ze do? Attack? No, that would be suicide for Ze, but that would be a wet dream for some in the west and a push towards totalitarianism in the west. Implement the Minsk agreement? Nato and Ukie Nazis would not like that. Do nothing, freeze the conflict, keep on provoking tensions and attention for more loans and investments? That is Ze’s best option.
Ze will choose to freeze the conflict.
But the West is hoping Ze + Russia will invade (without direct Nato involvement), so the West will have an excuse to accelerate the transformation of western society towards a technocratic totalitarian society.
I’m sure that most of the NATO members would be happy to violate the NATO charter to admit the Ukraine as a member. However, there’s still that niggling little fact that admission has to be approved unanimously by the existing members — and Hungary would be a certain nay vote. (Hungary has issued several angry statements about the Ukraine’s persecution of its Hungarian minority.) Hungary might be the only nay vote, but that would be sufficient.
Ze can’t freeze the conflict. The conflict is the only thing keeping him in power. Once the transit fees go next year, he’s toast. As numerous commentators have said, Ukraine is on a downward spiral and Ze is going to be ousted sooner or later. So he has no choice but to escalate the situation and try to play the “aggressor victim” card and hope the US and NATO bail him out.
Perhaps he thinks that Russia will not go all the way to Kiev and overthrow the government. In that case, he might be able to hold onto power claiming that he was the only one who at least tried to reunify Ukraine. He might think the US and NATO will help him hold onto power even if they do nothing to military confront Russia as long as he does what the CIA and the neocons tell him to do, even if it seems suicidal.
The point is Ze is in trouble with no way out but to do something stupid. And the CIA and the neocons will be happy to encourage him to do so. The one thing we can be sure of is that the CIA and the neocons know they won’t be held responsible for any negative outcome, so they have nothing to lose by encouraging this idiot to do something suicidal.
Andrei My Orthodox Brother,
If Washington is finally taking a Realpolitik approach to foreign policy (especially where Russia is involved) I’d say that is a good sign for the world. If that is true though they are only doing so because they understand a military confrontation with Russia could lead to WWIII and a global nuclear holocaust. Not everyone in Washington got the message though.
Probably mere bloviating on the Senator’s part unless he is a complete imbecile that doesn’t understand that thermal nuclear war with the Russians would be a bad thing for the state of Mississippi.
God forgive me but I truly hate the Neocon Chicken hawks even more than I hate the Neolib Globalists who favor international police actions and humanitarian interventions. At least the Globalists don’t wrap themselves in the flag and pretend they’re as American as apple pie.
I agree that we can only wait and see, though it is exhausting. I think it is safe to say that most things will be decided by the clash inside US. But I do think that the aim is to isolate definitely the EU from the Zone B countries and shape a “Western world” anchored to the hegemonic US, with a standard and imposed liberal/woke values, a more or less totalitarian control on the society keeping an empty shell of democracy. There are clearly clashes on how to achieve this by several factions, further complicated by the fact that US society itself (and also national states?) is losing cohesion.
As a wise man liked to say, we are in hands of God, let us hope He will not clap.
Mostly agree. Or fully, if you like it better, on short term. On the other hand, on middle and even more on long term, the future is already shaped. Despite a short postpone due to the “victory” of woke German libtards, the inherent magnetism between Russia and Germany cannot be stopped by anyone, especially by a dying Empire. Murica can’t avoid it’s fate (well known since many years ago – see George Friedman’s scripts): becoming an irelevant island, watching helpless the shift of power to Eurasia. They are now only trying to postpone the inevitable end. But of course, that’s not necessarily good news. Dying entities are easily in danger to become suicidal. That’s what scarry me most.
If I may post this video for a visual interpretation of the meeting:
“agreed to talks on the expert level”
Right. I wish I could be as optimistic as the Saker on this (though I realise he is trying to make the best of it). I am extremely pessimistic because of the very list the Saker has mentioned as the War Party – “the entire US media, the Neocons, the MAGA-GOP gang in Congress, the “non-Biden gang” inside the Democratic Party, the US energy sector, the US MIC, the entire US “deep state”, the Israel lobby, the Ukie lobby, the UK lobby, the Polish lobby, etc.”. Don’t look casually at that list – consider it carefully and deeply. These are very powerful people in the US and Europe, and will never accept such a concession from Biden and his team. There is far too much money and power at stake. If Biden is not careful, these people will swat him like a pesky fly and install someone who will do their bidding – like Kamala.
And as for Putin, he might agree to some concessions, but his red lines remain – he is not bluffing. In the end Zelenskii will, out of his own need to survive, push his troops into the Donbas, at which point Russia will destroy Ze’s army from a distance. This will cause the collapse of Ukraine and wild sanctions against Russia. No one will win – war is not that way.
“No one will win – war is not that way.” Ah, but the neocons win. And since they’re in charge, they are the only ones who count. As one of them said back during the Iraq war, they are the ones who “make reality” and the rest of us just do catch-up. He wasn’t incorrect about that.
War party in US hasn’t stopped. They do as the meeting Biden-Putin has never happened.
I read on news, Victoria Nuland is active again.
I wish I could agree with Saker, but I think Russia made concessions again without gaining anything.
Yes, they are so scared of Russia’s red lines, that they let Nuland the Princess of Cookies talk about placing more sanctions. A direct provocation, to make a woman responsible for all the mess in Ukropstan threaten Russia further.
I truly hope that there are no illussions inside Russia’s military about what comes next.
Now we are grasping at straws.
It does not matter what “Biden” and the rest of US government say. You even hinted at this in one of your previous texts. US and NATO always give an inch, then take a mile.
US talks, until one day it doesn’t and you find yourself surrounded on all sides. Your financial sector plundered: your allies turning their backs and your media irrelevant.
Maybe you don’t see the imminent danger, Saker, but I do. Yankies are up to no good.
No offense, but (judging by handles), number of commentators from Western Balkans shows symptom of Stockholm syndrome. It seams that money printed for suppression of Russian Malign Influence is well spent.
Tactics that worked on small and lonely Yugoslavia and Serbia does not scale up well on Russia and China. Stages of well rehearsed sequence fizzled one after another. Why do you expect that kinetic phase will do any better?
Add to that huge financial and social turmoil that torment the US.
Subtract industry they transferred to China and elsewhere.
Yes, Russia is surrounded with spineless hostile regimes. So what? What new threat those little bit closer missiles pose that ICBMs do not? They won’t be launched for the same reason ICBM’s are not. M.A.D.
Will those countries send their youth to die for Neocons? Imagine that your goverment mobilizes you and next day you are NATO soldier on Eastern front.
Would you fight?
“It seams that money printed for suppression of Russian Malign Influence is well spent.”
Nah, I have only hatred and disgust for the West and the majority of people there. We have a saying here: “Kakav narod, takva vlast.” Translated, it means roughly “The government of a country is the reflection of it’s people.”
I am just surprised by the need to paint rainbows above a very serious situation happening just outside Russia’s border. Say it as it is, a suicidal gamble of the crazed Empire destined to fall.
Sorry if quoted sentence felt like it was addressed to you. It wasn’t.
I want to highlight almost absolute dominance of western PR. Mentioned “Russian Malign Influence” is near zero among young urban population.
In such informational bias one must compensate perceived reality to come to the truth. Not easy, but doable.
Let me use your own saying as example, as it is verbatim description of percieved reality. But what if people does not have real goverment? If country was bombed into submission, infrastructure ruined, means of production devastated, currency controlled, resources sold for penny on the dollar, smartest emigrated… … and last but not least, political choice reduced to couple of foreign approved flavours. Different just enough to ensure emotionaly fuelled feuds about economically irrelevant topics, identical in maintaining “stability” of colonial exploitation. Such countries Does Not Have Goverment. Foreign power got them. Free countries can criticize goverment. Colonies don’t, as all they have is illusion. Fighting an illusion can be tiresome.
That is true reality. Difference between perceived and true is size of bias that must be compensated.
I doubt this “The government of a country is the reflection of it’s people.” is real “sayng”. It has all traits of colonial PRbs masterfully sold to target population as “old saying”.
The Russian situation is extremly dangerous mostly for small countries around it who fell for mind trick of Western instigators. Only after pawns are depleted, West will reevaluate future tactics against Russia.
As this one that worked flawlessly against small countries obviously failed.
Serbia (and Montenegro) were the first and only countries to fight NATO single-handed for 10 years while others (including Russia) were happily walking to their doom for a pair of jeans or a McDonalds. Show some respect please.
If the Serbs (and others) are pessimistic, it is not because they are stupid. They’ve experienced what Russia is experiencing now – total isolation and dehumanisation. They have been warning and warning but to no avail. Russia is in a wringer and if you think that that is no big deal, I suggest you pause your contributions here.
Also, it is the Russians who have suffered from the Stockholm syndrome for centuries – immense love of German sadists and cutthroats (from the ruling house downwards).
There will not be a war between Nato and Russia. The West is in the process of creating a totalitarian technocratic society using the pandemic and climate change as an excuse, they are not going to sacrifice that. As far as a war between Russia and Ukraine, that might happen, the West will use that as an excuse to accelerate their society towards totalitarianism.
Here you find a video of a Belgian Psychology Professor explaining how our society is moving towards totalitarianism. He is warning us! Very interesting video:
Comment on the discussion itself. There is another IF. I can see The Saker’s point that there is a great big IF in all the language, but they can easily create a casus belli. (We can start with the Skripals, Navalny and we all know the list of events that were created out of thin air going back much further than these).
The other IF. IF a major shift happened, the Washington consensus will not let it happen. These people are insane (Andrei Martyanoff has better words for this).
The actual readouts say nothing besides listing a few of the topics discussed. I don’t believe for one moment that it is a complete list. Between professional people, that takes half an hour or an hour at max as both Presidents would have been prepared. So, we have to speculate as to what else was discussed and then we dive into rabbit holes. I don’t think Russia will get the guarantees that they want regarding NATO’s movements.
Cookies Nuland jumped in just after this meeting with all kinds of threats, economic and others that she does not want to mention. She calls the IF a SHOULD … this or that happen.
US considers isolating Russia from global financial system – Nuland
Think of her what you wish, (worse than Albright in drag), but she is skilled in creating mayhem and bloodshed.
Martyanov says that there is a calm situation on the contact line. Good, but is this a de-escalation, or a feint. My money is on a ‘feint retreat’ but I am glad for even that if it gives the people some breathing room. It may even be that the hegemon now sees in some demented way that they can get at Russia even without using the Ukraine as a casus belli. Both parties want to lose the Ukraine.
We have to wait for a few things.
– We have to see how this weekend’s Summit for Democracy (or bread and circuses summit) develops.
– We have to wait for more incoming information from China and from India.
There are many moving parts here and it is going to be hard to put one’s arms around it overall.
Overall though, I don’t trust this meeting at all. I think it was another probe into where ‘Russian weakness’ can possibly be divined. There is no goodwill here. There is no negotiation in good faith visible. Yes, substance was discussed. Yes, red lines were put down almost for sure perhaps in strong language, perhaps in de-escalatory tones. I don’t believe Putin gave an inch. On the issue with the diplomats, Russia suggested setting the issue to zero and starting again instead of being strangled in minutae.
And more overall, the hegemon is fighting hard for its existence. Economically money and trade are flowing from the Dollar to the Yuan. I put nothing, no action even how unthinkable, beyond the hegemon now. Its hatred is bipartisan. It knows it is losing its world supremacy. It knows a new world is being built by other poles and it can do almost nothing about it. It cannot come to terms with that. It wants its own importance back dammit! and may even go for a ‘damn the torpedoes’ strategy which they themselves will believe they have a hope of winning.
I agree with you. The driving force here is bipartisan hatred for Russia due to a repugnant but visceral entitlement informed by the ingrained beliefs in ‘exceptionalism’ and ‘manifest destiny’. Your last paragraph is very insightful regarding the state of mind driving these truly arrogant and haughty people. Strangely enough, though many of these people profess some type of Christian belief they have no knowledge of love for neighbour nor humility. In the end I have that peaceful knowledge that eventually with that pride will come a fall.
I agree with you. The political climate in the USA is not appropriate for and kind of agreement between the Biden Administration and Putin. When you have Nuland saying that she presented a plan to isolate Russia, she wants to make sure that there won’t be any agreement. She is not even elected in the US system… She doesn’t care about the consequences on Europe if there is a conflict.
And this from Putin this morning:
However, Putin added, negotiations held the day before with American President Joe Biden could still help to de-escalate tensions that have flared between Moscow and Washington in recent weeks. “The talks were very open, substantive, and constructive. I hope that the American side sees the results the same way. We have the possibility of continuing the dialogue, that’s the most important thing,” the Russian leader added.
I read here that Putin is willing to use force, if needs be, to make sure that Ukraine doesn’t join NATO. NS2 is also in the picture. We will have a clearer picture in a few weeks.
Very difficult to go better and further than the Saker analysis without official details. The US has abandoned Afghanistan. They are stuck in an untenable position in Syria and Iraq. Their proxy war against Yemen is another failure. They have no option for war to delay their loss of global influence. Any movement is likely to push back the fear that reduces US clients to impotence. Russia even seems to succeed in integrating India positively into the Eurasian integration. It is an incredible development with Indian investments planned in the Russian Far East. And inside the USA the decay continues. A defeat in the desired war in Eastern Europe could even worsen the tempo of the loss of influence instead of freezing it.
BREAKING: Indian Chief of Defence Staff is killed in New Zealand after a helicopter carrying him crashes. The Five Eyes are obviously displeased with India over the agreement to do arms deals in their own currencies, rather than US$.
My prediction: the new Indian CDS will be an anti-Russia hawk and India will renege on the agreement.
You have India and New Zealand confused. Please check your facts because your prediction is as wrongheaded as your geography.
Apologies about the confusion over geography. The initial Indian army tweet announcing the helicopter crash mentioned that the Indian CDS had been on a visit to a college in “Wellington”. I initially mis-understood that as Wellington, New Zealand but on closer inspection it was in fact a place in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, India.
Re my prediction, it stands. I hope I am wrong.
You can choose to be stubborn about your prediction. But your view is a farrago of fallacies. An Indian CDS is a govt servant , and is not supposed to allow any personal views to influence his official conduct. The elected govt is on top, even though the present elected autocracy of Modi would wish to change this and elicit ideological obeisance from govt servants. It will not be possible, even for Modi, to overturn the existing culture completely.Obviously , CDS , along with National Security Advisor (NSA) and National Security Council are envisaged to give their views to the govt on threat perceptions for final formulation of a national policy.. True, Modi has very limited education and very limited patience which will result in his being swayed by NSA alone. But , structurally, we have decades of alliance with Russia and that cannot be dismantled easily. There is a matrix of circumstances and history which will predispose and constrain policy options in the case of a large country. That is none reason the US has been unhappy with such large countries especially if they have complex political democratic systems as India does. Much better to deal with “one phone call” countries , espedcially small ones or military dictatorships. With one phone call, Eisenhower could order Israel to withdraw from the Sinai in 19587. With one phone call, Clinton got Suharto to agree to a referendum in Esat Timor which led to East Timor separating from Indonesia
I don’t have anything more than a hunch, but what I think is going on is that the USA seeks to drive a wedge between Russia and China and their spheres of influence (which overlap in the stans) so the empire can play its trusty ‘divide and rule’ strategy. After all, that is their only chance to keep the empire.
The first Biden-Putin summit was America quasi-capitulating to Russia on their strategic struggle with each other, while trying to pull Russia into their anti-China efforts. Putin probably refused so they went back to the drawing board to do it anyway:
They will poke Russia hard enough to warrant the Russians agreeing to ‘ongoing expert talks’ which discuss classified* matters…. so this way America can make China suspect that USA and Russia are engineering their rapprochement – aligned against China. Quit pro quo is : Russia will back USA against China in the Pacific, and USA will back Russia against China in Siberia.
Note that the day after the summit (this morning) Mike Bolton says USA and Russia should work together against China.
Even if Russia doesn’t want to side with USA against China, USA can make the USA/Russia meetings about ‘nato expansion’ look (to China) like Russia can’t be trusted…
Biden talked to UK, France, Italy, Germany after the summit – Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic 3, all took notice, no doubt. They have their answer: we won’t fight Russia for you.
Putin on the other hand met in person with Modi in India (before) and the Greek PM (next day) in Sochi.
Given the west’s weak position in the ME these days, it looks like they are asking from Russia a dignified way out of their quagmire, and it looks like Russia is willing to do this in exchange for major strategic concessions:
– high gas prices
– back off on Ukraine
– stop nato in its tracks in Eastern Europe
– final victory for Assad in Syria
– end all monkey business in the stans
– get the b-61’s out of turkey
…who knows what else.
American motivation to push nato east is aggressive, a luxury, a way for them to exercise surplus* military power… they were doing that because Russia was week and USA was strong.
China on the other hand, they fear. They don’t want to fight China in the pacific – like the ww2 pacific theater on steroids plus space. They are scared of China, that’s why they do what they do with China. They know China would probably win that war given her vastly superior shipbuilding capabilities.
If the Americans can successfully plant seeds of doubt in China’s mind about Russia, and more importantly in the minds of the Rest of World about the sino-russo alliance, America will be able to capitalize on some* divide and rule opportunities, their favorite game to play.
President V. Putin has given Biden an opportunity to put both in the history books. A new legally binding “ NATO Post USSR Demarcation Line”. Will Biden take the fat pitch? Most politicians would.
The Democratic Party pretty much owns the MSM & will not tolerate criticism of Biden. At the same time the MSM consistently maintains an hysterically russophobic position. Should the Biden – Putin meeting genuinely entail a shift in US / Russian relations, an awful lot of people ( mainly in the US & UK ) heavily invested in the ‘Russia bad’ propoganda will find themselves in somewhat of an uncomfortable dilemma. How to continue uinconditional support for a President that no longer vilifies Russia.
Can you imagine Rachel Maddow presenting a programme supporting Biden softening his position on ‘killer Putin?”
“Negotiations, by definition, imply first, that both parties approach the negotiations as equals and, second, that both parties are willing to engage in a mutually beneficial give and take”.
According to the Melian Dialogue, a party seeks negotiations when it is convinced that it cannot hope to make headway by violence. That implies that Washington accepts that Russia today is at least its military equal.
Which reminds me of a story about Bobby Fischer at the Havana chess Olympiad in 1966. In their free time, the players used – what else – to enjoy games of “blitz”. It is told how Bobby Fischer agreed to play a series of fast games against Leonid Stein of the USSR. Stein won the first game. Fischer said, “I got my lines mixed up”. Stein won the second game. Fischer said, “I overlooked that combo”. Stein won the third game. Fischer said, “I never liked that variation”. Stein won the fourth game. Fischer said, “This guy isn’t as weak as most Russians”. Stein won the fifth game. Fischer said, “He’s pretty good”. Stein won the sixth game.
And Fischer said, “You know, he’s nearly as strong as me”.
“Negotiations” are taking place within NATO re Putin’s proposals because NATO’s eastward “salami slicing” plans met a very effective and pragmatic Russian pushback. Defiant statements by: POTUS (“I don’t accept anybody’s red lines”), the Pentagon and NATO chiefs were the prelude to the Dec 7 secure link video conference. However, the balance of forces and logistical challenges preclude any further NATO deployment that could counter the quantity and composition of Russian forces close to the Ukraine, the Black Sea, and Belarus staging theatres. The realists within the Empire won and this resulted in the announcement that USA will not send troops to fight Russians in Ukraine. Likewise, Norway decided that NATO’s forces and equipment are not needed in the Norwegian borders with the RF. Canada has now decided not to send more trainers to Ukraine (they were already there). With this in mind we reach the impasse and conundrum that NATO is finding itself in. For example, despite all the threats against RF including banning from SWIFT and steamrolling NS2, RF’s deployments are there to stay put like a loaded gun reminder to the temples of Brussels, D.C. & London. When asked on Wednesday whether Russia was planning to move soldiers away from the Ukrainian border, Ushakov replied, “where should we move our troops? They’re in Russian territory.” Similarly, the threat by Lukashenka to deploy RF’s IRBM within Belarus mirrors and essentially defeats any advantage for NATO to place the same in Poland, Romania and the Baltic’s. RF MIC sources plan to diversify the Zircon missile with suitable nuclear warheads and to design smaller Status 6 torpedoes for tactical use against Aircraft carrier groups. RF’s EW, Air Defence / Area Denial and anti-Satelitte options are so far advanced that makes a First Strike against it is suicidal. Overall, it is plain to see that the RF moves have neutered and put and end to NATO’s eastward push at least for the time being. The guarantees the RF now seeks in writing is just the formality of the capitulation terms. As for Ukraine, it’s remaining option is to be absorbed peacefully into the RF’s sphere of economic influence. If this readout is correct, then the Banderists and Azov navies are no longer useful to the Empire.
You are the best.
The Saker can explain in the best way how those things work.
Delusional Ukraine yesterday
“Our analysts have actually identified three lines along which Russian propaganda or Russian officials promote their narratives about Ukraine. The first is the military provocation that Ukraine is allegedly preparing against Russia, the second is that Ukraine is unconstructive and does not comply with the Minsk agreements, and the third is that Ukraine uses Bayraktar drones against the civilian population,” First Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Emine Dzheppar said at the Kyiv Stratcom Forum, the first international strategic communications forum in Ukraine, an Ukrinform correspondent reports. .”
I wonder who was there. Perhaps Rezinov with his overinflated optimism of his troops numbers and abilities as expressed the other day. Ukr continues its deliberate behaviours to stall Minsk at the meetings. Did back in ,2017 Putin moot UN peacekeepers for Donbass.. is that off the cards unless something could provoke that as Minsk is a UN Resolution? UN seems unconcerned? Meanwhile we await results of the Russian documentation presented to the Hague regarding ukrops actions against Donbass and OSCE still seems to not fulfilling its part there….mass burials are still being discovered.
Will Putin meet his security council.. make a presentation to Duma ….just wondrin what the internal procedures could be and whether the Russian documentation “told you so” will be published. I suppose some kind of progress monitoring will be set up….eg re the diplomatic ejections in next January and visa renewals for Russian reps. to UN. then someone can say non agreement capable again. Was not Russia going to take legal action regarding the properties?
Problems remain re MH17 blame game to be used against Russia…OPCW could lead to a split and blame again with ructions …maybe the USA democracy twit thing could be manipulated to influence the UN veto mechanisms …seems like the Russian offer to convene the Security Council and have a serious thrash out chat is ignored? Presumably Erdogan offer to mediate is a running joke despite suggestions of a new joint fighter project and more B drone sales to Ukraine might be of concern.
UK will continue its support contracts finances and be military contracts to rebuild the navy and potential to cause Sea of Azov trouble. Idiot minister of defence and friends. Same as ever was.
Oh….not forgetting..has the German new government realised they must realise their new responsibilities for Minsk…is Pres Putin happy to let them fester with their load…. do we await a new French President also stuck in their mire? Or could they have a divergence from Germanic policicies to muddle things up even more ?
further re OPCW
8 DEC, 13:43
CSTO states call to reinstate consensus, equality at OPCW — statement
According to the document, “this approach is a necessary condition in order to achieve the universal coverage of the Convention which remains one of the fundamental treaties in the architecture of international security and disarmament”
Russian Foreign Ministry Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS
Russian Foreign Ministry
© Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS
MOSCOW, December 8. /TASS/. The member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) urge their dialogue partners at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to return consensus and equality to this venue against the background of a threat to politicize its agenda, a joint CSTO statement said at the 26th session of the Conference of the States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
The document published on Wednesday on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s website points out that the CSTO urges the CWC member states “to constructively cooperate with each other, aspire to restore the spirit of consensus and equality at the OPCW in the interests of the integrity and universality of the Convention.” “[The CSTO member states] call on the CWC member states to move to real cooperation through the exchange of information and consultations with each other within the framework of the Convention and other existing international mechanisms in this regard to which they are parties, in particular, on the provision of legal help,” the statement said. According to the document, “this approach is a necessary condition in order to achieve the universal coverage of the Convention which remains one of the fundamental treaties in the architecture of international security and disarmament.”
The statement noted that the CSTO member states realize “a serious problem in using the OPCW venue for the dissemination of unconfirmed allegations on the use of chemical weapons” and emphasize “the necessity to preserve the objectivity and impartiality” of the organization’s Technical Secretariat when promptly reacting to the claims of the CWC member states of the alleged use of chemical weapons in armed conflicts……. ” etc
I hope that I´m wrong about this, but I just can´t shake the uneasy feeling that all the talk (from inter-presidential down to the Moveable Feast on this blog site) is simply diverting attention (intentionally or otherwise) from an imminent Pearl Harbour type event which will reshape the “world order” forever. From the relative safety “down on the farm” here in Brasil, all we can do is hope and pray that it´s all quick and decisive, not drawn out and messy like the last time.
That is reasonable, Morc. The Americans do not believe in negotiating with “the lesser breeds without the Law”; they prefer to use trickery or violence. When both of those fail, they are pretty desperate.
So, as you say, the talking is just to save face with the public at home. Sooner or later they will return to their vomit, following the tried and tested rule that “if violence doesn’t work, use more violence”.
If the War State does not provoke its war, then the US and EU are left with the tar baby, suitcase without a handle that will need ongoing infusions of billions and billions. Maybe they could declare victory and fly of in their helicopters from the roof of the Ukie embassy, but all this is a real losing proposition for Brandon and Co.
Very minor point: But while the War Party may include “the MAGA-GOP gang in Congress” — IMHO is definitely does not include the Deplorables (of whom I’m am proud member), who brought the MAGA group to power in 2016, temporarily at least. And likely will again, in Congress at least, after the 2022 mid-term elections, if votes are counted correctly. (A big “if” of course.) While a lot of GOP congressmen still think they get political points waving the Cold War bloody flag, if and when they control Congress again they will likely resist the War Party, as they did in 2013, if I’ve got the year right, when they prevented an escalation in Syria after a false-flag chemical attack. — Time will tell.
Me too. No war.
If we get real for a moment, the only country in Europe with any serious military capability (excluding Russia, of course) is France. (All the main offensive weapons systems in the UK are controlled by the US.) France is bogged down fighting pointless colonial wars in Africa and is in no position to threaten anyone, let alone Russia. Neither has France ever threatened Russia.
Polish army? LMAO.
Ukrainian army? LMFAO.
Biden is on his own and he knows it. He will deal.
”Neither has France ever threatened Russia”.
Yes it did today.
Russia-Ukraine tensions: Paris warns Moscow of “strategic and massive consequences” in case of attack
Promising to retaliate if attacked is not a threat, it’s a simple warning statement of policy. Putin’s red lines are the same.
It is a threat if you know you’re not going to be attacked. And everyone knows Russia is not intending to “invade” Ukraine. It becomes a threat because the actual threat is from Ukraine against the Donbass. The US and EU are threatening Russia not to be involved in defending Donbass.
But in reality, the purpose of making statements like those of the US, France and Germany is to encourage Zelensky to go for broke and start a new offensive against the Donbass. It has nothing to do with “threatening” Russia per se since all parties know that neither the US or NATO can confront Russia militarily in Ukraine.
You can be sure Putin understands this.
The status quo is the worst possible case for the US and the best possible case for Russia. Emphasis, emphasis, emphasis, best possible case. What Russia has succeeded in doing is the transformation of the US into Ukraine, a crippled, dysfunctional state with no future. As has China. What is the future for the US? Horror. Both Russia and China will be very glad to let the US fester and die safely across a giant ocean. Without firing a shot. The more nothing changes, the weaker the US becomes. A trillion dollars for defense. Support our troops. Support our police. Trump for President. Bleed, bleed, bleed.
Mr M K Bhadrakumar ,Indian Ex-Diplomat has said – Putin didn’t have upper hand for the first time in meeting with US presidents and a one-on-one was not the format of the meeting as was announced earlier but biden’s team was present in the room while putin had only his interpreter in the room”
negotiations would be about transperancy in weapon positions etc., not abt redlines .
the situation is still serious!
Mr. M K B, is very insightful in his appraisals in general but in this case, I am afraid he did a sloppy job. Mercouris did a better job of reviewing the readouts from WH & Kremlin.
Now, more than ever, concrete actions speak louder than increasingly-meaningless words. Here’s a perfect example (if true) of the former:
I’ll know Russia and China are truly serious about defending themselves against Western Aggression when Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin announce for all the world to hear that China and Russia will no longer accept printed-out-of-thin-air USD as payment for their very real export goods; nor will China and Russia continute to allow any individuals or corporations within their nations to use USD to pay for absolutely anything from absolutely anybody………….. and, most importantly, they actually act on their words.
Here is a very good overview of the Biden-Putin call. Agree with the key points in the article. Vladimir Putin didn’t get much from the meeting. In both the Biden-Putin meetings, Russia has come out weaker and they have impacted negatively its global standing. It hasn’t shown leadership or progress in resolving the conflicts.
“the US strategy toward Ukraine is not really about Ukraine at all — it has never been — but has always been about containing Russia.” It is unfortunate that Russia is taking this long to understand the reality and seems lost in addressing the threats. The Minsk agreement is history until one sees positive developments. Russia hasn’t been defeated militarily in the last century but fooled many times and continues to pay a heavy price. A real geopolitical tragedy.
The Biden team clearly defined in a “direct and straightforward” manner, the consequences for Putin and Russia. “Washington will use Nord Steam 2 gas pipeline to leverage Moscow’s behaviour,.. The Biden team set up this meeting on the last day of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in office. The face-off with Russia is being cynically exploited to reassert the US’ transatlantic leadership at a juncture when the German-French axis is transitioning… By creating a narrative counting in binary — escalation versus de-escalation — US has positioned itself in a “win-win” situation.”
MK Bhadrakumar’s analyses are good but I think he’s off the mark here.
I’m not sure if it was agreed that the format was to be 1-on-1 but if it was and Biden reneged, then it only goes to show that the US is unable to keep an agreement, even a simple one — the implication being that you take the US’s word at your own peril and you should not expect it to negotiate in good faith. How Bhadrakumar could not see the implication and instead read it as Russia being unable to read the ‘tea leaves’ is a mystery. At any rate Putin in his holiday villa would not have been disadvantaged even if Biden had his whole NSC with him in the room.
Reading the readout of Sullivan’s brief after the meeting (as provided by Bhadrakumar) in particular:
“the US would also be prepared to support efforts to advance the Minsk Agreement, including ceasefire and confidence-building measures.”
it would appear VVP won a major concession from Biden. Whether the US will actually follow through is of course a different question — the Russians are hoping it will but they are prepared if it won’t.
Bhadrakumar rightly says that Sullivan’s brief contains some preposterous propositions for Russia to pursue regarding Ukraine — de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, but he believes because the clever Americans had turned the discussion into a binary ‘escalate/de-escalate’ framework, the onus is now on Russia to de-escalate. What? It is the US who should be doing the ‘de-escalating’, not Russia; RF has nothing to de-escalate. Indeed, ‘Russian escalation’ is a fiction manufactured and perpetuated by US media. Surprisingly for a man of his experience, Bhadrakumar seems to have bought into US/Nato propaganda.
International Biden Announces Plans for NATO-Russia Meeting to Discuss Moscow’s Concerns 2 hours ago © AFP 2021 / RAIGO PAJULA
US President Joe Biden has announced plans to set up a meeting between Russian and NATO member state officials to discuss Moscow’s concerns, including the bloc’s eastward expansion. The planned meeting, which Biden said would be formally announced by Friday and include “at least four of our major NATO allies and Russia,” is expected to “discuss the future of Russia’s concerns relative to NATO writ large” and aimed at “bringing down the temperature along the Eastern Front.” The plans for talks come a day after Biden’s video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which the two leaders brought up a range of security-related issues, including escalating tensions over Ukraine, cybersecurity, and strategic stability.
hmm, sounds like negotiating a treaty of surrender.
Yes Russia is not the aggressor – as I said in another recent post the Biden – Democrats are desperate and on the run as are EU leaders and this Russia – Ukn interlude is a smokescreen diversion from their own disastrous domestics plight over lockdowns etc…
The US and EU elites know the time is coming for their demise and its a last ditch attempt to to deflect attention off their wickedness & incompetence.
I agree 100% with the Saker analysis. Talking is always a better option. One must hope for peace or at least calm and understanding. But I must say I don’t trust the west… They have been doing this dominance and plundering for thousands of years, and they don’t know any other method. The West philosophy of life, it seems to me, is kill or be killed. And the East philosophy of life is live and let live. I’m confident that Mr. Putin and his team are aware of this and are hoping for the best and ready for the worst. And they are not lowering their guard. I hope and pray to Allah they are under his guidance and protection. Russia must succeed. It is better for Russia, the West and the rest of the world. Good luck.
Good summary ! A great for reference ! The fortunate or unfortunate thing is I end up in and argument because I deal with quite a lot of people who love western news ; it is a font of information for them!
Of course the Nuland gang of neocons will do everything they can to undermine any progress toward diplomacy. Already on CNN a report that pretty much called Biden weak to forego the use of American troops. And this was supposed to be as news explainer segment. Also checking Foxnews and they are attacking Biden as pretty much weak except for Tucker Carlson who lit into the neocons. I would bet somebody like Nuland will get into Zelensky’s ear and convince him to attack full force the break away republics right before the new term elections.
Europe is still receiving gas from Russia via:
1. The Russian gas going through Nord Stream-1 and South stream.
2. Pipelines going through Belarus – Poland -into central Europe.
3. Several pipelines going through Ukraine and on to central Europe.
The gas via Nord stream 2 will be distributed in Europe via the Gazprom owned NS2 AG registered in Switzerland (a non EU country) but the German court demands the company must registered in Germany (a EU country), before the court will accept the gas coming online.
Gazprom has ended making long-term Gas contraction with Ukraine and Poland, because Ukraine do not pay for the gas it receives, and Poland restricts the gas from flowing in to central Europe.
Will this have consequences for MaloRussia and NovoRussia?
Putin is already saving Eastern Ukraine from freezing by letting the gas flow through Ukraine, even though the Regime in Kiev do not pay the gas bills from Russia. The Ukraine gas company stealing the gas is led by Hunter Biden, so the Big Guy gets his 10% from the sale of stolen Russian gas transported through Ukraine.
What is not clear is who or what group is pushing “Biden” to negotiate. The war party pretty much runs the show in the US and are against any negotiations. Is there someone who has veto power over them? Let’s hope so.
I think that it is incorrect to refer to the Republican congressmen as team MAGA as they never really supported Trump who was for improving relations with Russia. I think that most MAGA Trump supporters agreed with that stance.
Yes, a major shift did occur.
For more about this….
Oil/Gas production within the EU and USA peaked in 2007-2008. By now, the decline is so precipitous,
particularly in distillate (Diesel/Jet-A ) that it cannot be ignored.
The Big Pharma dominated response to COVID-19 so weakened the economies / social structure of the AngloZionist countries, that changes slated for conclusion in 2025, have occurred.
The BioWeapons attack on China redounded back onto the perpetrators, facilitiating their early demise.
We see the shift in dominance with the recent Russia/India Summit. Putin-Xi summit. Putin- Lukashenko accords, and shifts in the control of Libya and oil/gas exports from Algeria/Angola etal.
Of course, the NeoCons are doing everything possible to obscure these truths, but now we see Russia establishing “Red Lines” and NATO begrudingly acceeding to them.
We live in interesting times, indeed.
Major false flag coming soon:
Achtung false flag
A technique that makes one think furiously of a certain MH17 in the same region seven years ago, when Barack à frites “persuaded” the euronouilles of Russian responsibility with “extraordinary evidence” that no one has ever seen. But, as yours truly narrated in his opus …
The important thing is elsewhere. We are in the geopolitical balance of power, of which information warfare is an increasingly important component. In the absence of proof of Russian involvement in the Boeing crash, the emotion aroused by the media demonization campaign allows Americans to overcome the last European reluctance and to set up what they have long dreamed of: a regime of perpetually renewed sanctions against Moscow (…) In a speech at Harvard University, Vice-President Joe Biden admits it without remorse: America forced the hand of European countries who balked at this suicidal escalation.
You don’t have to be a great scholar to detect, behind the current tragicomedy, the pressures put on the new German government in relation to a certain gas pipeline that we have already talked about a lot: if the Russians invade Ukraine, you definitely give up. Nord Stream.
If he does not want to question it, it is a fact that the neo-chancellor Olaf Scholtz is less enthusiastic vis-à-vis the Baltic tube than Frau Milka while his Minister of Foreign Affairs is, like a good environmentalist, totally aligned with Washingtonistan.
Watch out for false flags in eastern Ukraine in the coming weeks …
“Did a major shift finally happen between the USA and Russia?”
Not quite, but it could be a beginning.
The meeting took place within a framework of anticipated, fallacious expectations, a byproduct of the US establishment mindset based on cliches, in this case “being tough on Russia/Putin” delivered mostly in questions, “would Biden be tough enough with Putin?” or “would Biden face up to Putin?” Within the perception of the US elites, or the manipulating MSM, the meeting was for Biden to deliver a message to Putin, not for a conversation among equals, let alone a dialogue. In the delusional world of the “powerful” US elites, Biden would issue Putin a message of “either…or else…”, all done in a dress-down tone to a head-down, contrite Putin, taking the chastising without uttering a word.
The insufferable arrogance of an elite unable to understand the eroded reality of an empire that is fading away by the day, will continue to hunt US foreign policy for decades to come. Saker reading and decoding of the meeting’s meaningful nuances is by the most part accurate, however, I would not have any high hopes that this meeting would in any way, shape, or form, signify a fundamental change in US foreign policy toward Russia. It might last as long as the Biden’s administration, barely, which I seriously doubt will have a chance for a second shot.
Any foreign policy is an extension of domestic policy, and the “War Party” is waiting in the wings like vultures flying over a dying man, ready to take back any change in approach to Russia, China, Iran, et al, that can be perceived as “weakness” in the wider world. War is business, business is war. They will be ready to ride over Trump or anyone else that follows Biden to continue fattening their pockets, even with war mimicking enterprises, like the one developing as I write in Donbass. Biden is an old politician, with a better grasp of reality than anyone that may succeed him. His space to wiggle, however, is extremely limited.
Biden’s stupid answer to the idiotic question posed by George Stephanopoulos, “You think Putin is a killer?” was a clear example of how ready he is to perpetuate cliches and play “tough boy” to the US foreign policy establishment. Biden knows his time is limited, in politics and on this realm, and like any other US president, he dreams of leaving a legacy of domestic and foreign policy achievements, his efforts with Russia part of that dream. The way this country is going, Biden’s efforts might be short and insignificant, a blip in our forward motion toward a quasi-fascist society.
Putin’s prudence and cautious approach to conflict, plus an accurate reading of Biden’s agenda, has earned Russia precious time to continue preparing for what is certain to continue, NATO’s encircling of Russia, the permanent threats of sanctions, economic and political pressure, the slandering misinformation of Russia as an aggressor, the using of the “imminent threat of Russia” to arm to the teeth their lapdogs (3B+PU+NATO’s “old Europe ”+Rumsfeld’s “new Europe”), the greatest source of income for the MIC.
Nord Stream 2 can now start flowing gas to Europe, a true achievement for the Russians that would have been impossible under a Republican administration. Putin delivered his message to Biden, loud and clear, read him Russia’s red lines, foreign policy teams will continue to iron out issues between them, and for the time being, there is a line of communication. That is a good beginning.
As always, let us hope for the best…
Being a pessimist (or, at the best, a cautious optimist) I couldn’t find any ‘sign’ that could be termed as positive. Personally, I’m unable to get elated with the outcome of the Putin-Biden meet. On the other hand, the event was surely a milestone – both the nuclear superpowers showed that they are open to dialogue.
Read an article in Zerohedge: link:
I won’t get tired to repeat the ultimate gameplay of Zionist-Capitalist world order – create chaos inside Russia (and China), split the landmass into 4 – 6 countries, put those under “demoncracy” political circus parties owned by global oligarchy, suck the Russian (and Chinese) lands dry ….
History shows Russia as an uncontested military winner (at high cost though) all along. Putin and his team members have only one interest – to see Russia as powerful sovereign country, and with minimum conflicts. So meetings and discussions are always preferred.
But, finally Russia didn’t get any legally valid assurance that NATO will cease It’s enlargement programme at the western border of Ukraine and Belarus. Russia WON’T get that ever.
It’s time to shape its own sphere of Rus Slavic civilization – Russia-Belarus-Novorossia (east and south region of Ukraine). It’s perfectly logical, rational, and valid action for Russian President to make the long-pending historic decision. And, in such historic moment, Russia would surely get moral support from non-European world.
Thanks for the analysis. I’m looking for days to read about this “appointment” ….
What is certain is that, we will have World War III in case the western corpses continue to be “scratched on the shepherd’s wood”.
Also in Putin’s meeting with the stupid prime minister of Greece, the president said that he would inform his Iranian friends about the discussion he had with the Oldman Biden.
I look forward to reading your next analysis.
ΥΓ. Do you have a site similar to yours?
By trying to compromise with the collective West, by effort of Russian economic elites to profit somehow from the good relationships with the West, Russia is now in the corner. It is so sad.
By each day passed, Ukraine shall be better armed and stronger. It doesn’t matter that the population is poor, what does matter is that they hate Russia. Soon, NATO nuclear weapons shall be there.
As the author notes, the Bidon hyperpower has already read this script out loud for at least 5 times. The same bs all over again. What’s the big difference this time? All the talk about sanctions from hell are hot air. If the hyper-balloon cuts the Russian Empire off from its and EUs’ gas, electronics, machine & tools markets I will only applaud loudly. Russian liberasts are on life support and its liberal elitiki try their very best to rescue their relationship to their master, but to no avail. There might be also a small chance for the Russian Empire to drop the nonsense about the international community / markets and get on to a bottom up renovation and redevelopment of everything in the Russian society. Most importantly reestablishing the Orthodox religion’s primacy and getting Russian women to have many children again. If they cut internet access to degenerate content of the West it will be another boost for Russian mental health. In short, it’s a win-win situation. I can only cheer Russia on to disconnect from a radioactive cesspool.
I, for one, am very pleased with this process and hope the liberal disease will be finally cured in the Russian Empire.
In other words great news. Have a nice day!
Hookers & Blow Joe couldn’t invade his wife.
A very good analysis, as good as we are likely to get in the absence of accurate but hitherto secret intelligence: thanks, Saker.
Personal observation, though, makes me suggest that popular attempts to escape the Ukraine may well come from its South-West border areas as well as from the Donbas. The whole area has been heavily hacked around for centuries – before 1453 it was the Slave Coast for the Genoese, after for the Turks. After Suvorov’s victories in the late 18th century the Russians had to repopulate the whole area (which is very fertile) with Russians. There are small towns where an 85-year-old who had stayed in his home town until his death in 1995 would have been a citizen of six states, without moving. Odessa was relatively undamaged by WWII, because Hitler’s Romanian allies wanted it as the capital of Romania.
Four years ago I went on a cruise down the Dnieper, across to Odessa and down the coast as far as a main channel of the Danube delta. It was relatively inexpensive, and you got what you paid for, risible propaganda reminiscent of Stalinism. We were hurried past the bookshop attached to St Sophia cathedral in Kiev, because it was in Russian.. Kiew had been a good looking city, but the new offices were all empty, except for “men’s clubs”; indeed, prostitution seemed to be so much the only economic activity that I compared it to Saigon 50 years ago. Another revelation was Odessa: the authorities had directed their energies to clumsily blanking out or chipping out the second “s” (c in Cyrillic) in Odessa, yet guides could not point me to a bookshop stocking titles for the locals. Again, educated people hawking postcards, like Russia in the 1990’s.
Stalin’s border changes included hiving off Moldova from Romania, inventing “Moldovan” by returning to the use of the Cyrillic alphabet. The Mr Big in Moldova is one Avigdor Lieberman, who holds Israeli citizenship and has some responsibility for Moldovan young women and girls being “people trafficked” across the EU. In addition to creating Moldova, Stalin extended the Ukraine’s Western border far to the South-West of the Carpathians, incorporating what had been the Easternmost province of Czechoslovakia, and creating a common border with Hungary The area has Slavs and a considerable number of Hungarians. I noted that Hungary was not invited to the big jamboree of “democratic” countries mooted by the US. Could Hungarian “little green men” operate in Hungarian-speaking parts of Western Ukraine? They have the advantage over Russians in the Ukraine, that no non-Hungarian will have a clue what they are talking about.
Apologies to any reader of the above who came to the end thinking “what about Transnistria?” – I pressed “post” accidentally. Transnistria is the sliver of what is formally Moldova that lies between the river Dniester and a significant portion of the Ukrainian South West Frontier. Its people are ethnically Russian and politically Soviet (still). State forces are heavily armed (there are rumours of reinforcement by regular Russian forces, but then there always are.). They would be ideally placed to head a liberation movement of the Odessa oblast, whose Slav population is very largely Russian (despite which, schools operate exclusively in Ukrainian – in blatant breach of the European Convention of Human Rights).
You also need to consider that all of a sudden a lot of momentum has sprung up in Russian and Pakistani relations as well.
Smartest blog on the web. All grownup’s as well.
Zerohedge has gone for the suite case full cash…biggle.
America is in terminal decline. Palliative care will soon be recommended….have they got it already… as in care + the last rights.
Anyroad reading the Saker is like being back at uni in 1978ish. Makes retirement a pleasure. The comments section is a bonus to boot.
Smartest blog on the web. All grownup’s as well.
Zerohedge has gone for the suite case full cash…biggle.
America is in terminal decline. Palliative care will soon be recommended….have they got it already… as in Covid19 -care + the last rights.
Anyroad reading the Saker is like being back at uni in 1978ish. Makes retirement a pleasure. The comments section is a bonus to boot.
I would be astonished if this debacle in Ukraine and Eastern Europe doesn’t seriously result in more coordination and co-operation between Russia and China.
Also, as China I would focus on kicking the yankee influence out of the Indochina countries, apparently Thailand and Laos have been recently restricted with some rail projects. It is a war of economic liberation.
Real brief the Ukraine is none of our business AKA we Americans should mind our own business! The Chicken Hawks should watch The Russians Are Coming! The Russians Are Coming! Alan Arkin movie and then they will learn that Russians are human beings!! We should immediately pull our soldiers out of Europe!! Then spend the money here in America for hard working Americans! Protectionism Isolationism Neutrality & Minding Our Own Business wood b smart!! We Should Get Smart!! America should be Patriots For Common Sense ASAP
On the spot.
A whole sea of good will and cooperation will appear from thin air, if and when you Americans mind your own business. And , [for granted] stop foreign policy deals based simply on ”me Tarzan, you Jane”