[This analysis was written for the Unz Review]
Events in Syria have recently clearly taken a turn for the worse and there is an increasing amount of evidence that the Russian task force in Syria is being targeted by a systematic campaign of “harassing attacks”.
First, there was the (relatively successful) drone and mortar attack on the Russian Aerospace base in Khmeimin. Then there was the shooting down of a Russian SU-25 over the city of Maasran in the Idlib province. Now we hear of Russian casualties in the US raid on a Syrian column (along with widely exaggerated claims of “hundreds” of killed Russians). In the first case, Russian officials did openly voice their strong suspicion that the attack was if not planned and executed by the USA, then at least coordinated with the US forces in the vicinity. In the case of the downing of the SU-25, no overt accusations have been made, but many experts have stated that the altitude at which the SU-25 was hit strongly suggests a rather modern MANPAD of a type not typically seen in Syria (the not so subtle hint being here that these were US Stingers sent to the Kurds by the USA). As for the latest attack on the Syrian column, what is under discussion is not who did it but rather what kind of Russian personnel was involved, Russian military or private contractors (the latter is a much more likely explanation since the Syrian column had no air-cover whatsoever). Taken separately, none of these incidents mean very much but taken together they might be indicative of a new US strategy in Syria: to punish the Russians as much as possible short of an overt US attack on Russian forces. To me this hypothesis seems plausible for the following reasons:
First, the USA and Israel are still reeling in humiliation and impotent rage over their defeat in Syria: Assad is still in power, Daesh is more or less defeated, the Russians were successful not only their military operations against Daesh but also in their campaign to bring as many “good terrorists” to the negotiating table as possible. With the completion of a successful conference on Syria in Russia and the general agreement of all parties to begin working on a new constitution, there was a real danger of peace breaking out, something the AngloZionist are absolutely determined to oppose (check out this apparently hacked document which, if genuine, clearly states the US policy not to allow the Russian to get anything done).
Second, both Trump and Netanyahu have promised to bring in lots of “victories” to prove how manly and strong they are (as compared to the sissies which preceded them). Starting an overt war against Russian would definitely be a “proof of manhood”, but a much too dangerous one. Killing Russians “on the margins”, so to speak, either with plausible deniability or, alternatively, killing Russians private contractors is much safer and thus far more tempting option.
Third, there are presidential elections coming up in Russia and the US Americans are still desperately holding on to their sophomoric notion that if they create trouble for Putin (sanctions or body bags from Syria) they can somehow negatively impact his popularity in Russia (in reality they achieve the opposite effect, but they are too dull and ignorant to realize that).
Last but not least, since the AngloZionist have long lost the ability to actually getting anything done, their logical fall-back position is not let anybody else succeed either. This is the main purpose of the entire US deployment in northern Syria: to create trouble for Turkey, Iran, Syria and, of course, Russia.
The bottom line is this: since the US Americans have declared that they will (illegally) stay in Syria until the situation “stabilizes” they now must do everything their power to destabilize Syria. Yes, there is a kind of a perverse logic to all that…
For Russia, all this bad news could be summed up in the following manner: while Russia did defeat Daesh in Syria she is still far from having defeated the AngloZionists in the Middle-East. The good news is, however, that Russia does have options to deal with this situation.
Step one: encouraging the Turks
There is a counter-intuitive but in many ways an ideal solution for Russia to counter the US invasion of Syria: involve the Turks. How? Not by attacking the US forces directly, but by attacking the Kurdish militias the US Americans are currently “hiding” behind (at least politically). Think of it, while the US (or Israel) will have no second thoughts whatsoever before striking Syrian or Iranian forces, actually striking Turkish forces would carry an immense political risk: following the US-backed coup attempt against Erdogan and, just to add insult to injury, the US backing for the creation of a “mini-Kurdistsan” both in Iraq and in Syria, US-Turkish relations are at an all-time low and it would not take much to push the Turks over the edge with potentially cataclysmic consequences for the US, EU, NATO, CENTCOM, Israel and all the AngloZionist interests in the region. Truly, there is no overstating the strategic importance of Turkey for Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle-East, and the US Americans know that. From this flows a very real if little understood consequence: the Turkish armed forces in Syria basically enjoy what I would call a “political immunity” from any US attacks, that is to say that (almost) no matter what the Turks do, the US would (almost) never consider actually openly using force against them simply because the consequence of, say, a USAF strike on a Turkish army column would be too serious to contemplate.
In fact, I believe that the US-Turkish relationship is so bad and so one-sided that I see a Turkish attack on a Kurdish (or “good terrorist”) column/position with embedded US Special Forces far more likely than a US attack on a Turkish army column. This might sound counter-intuitive, but let’s say the Turks did attack a Kurdish (or “good terrorist”) column/position with US personnel and that US servicemen would die as the result. What would/could the US do? Retaliate in kind? No way! Not only is the notion of the US attacking a fellow NATO country member is quite unthinkable, it would most likely be followed by a Turkish demand that the US/NATO completely withdraw from Turkey’s territory and airspace. In theory, the US could ask the Israelis to do their dirty job for them, but the Israelis are not stupid (even if they are crazy) and they won’t have much interest in starting a shooting war with Turkey over what is a US-created problem in a “mini-Kurdistan”, lest any hallowed “Jewish blood” be shed for some basically worthless goyim.
No, if the Turks actually killed US servicemen there would be protests and a flurry of “consultations” and other symbolic actions, but beyond that, the US would take the losses and do nothing about it. As for Erdogan, his popularity at home would only soar even higher. What all this means in practical terms is that if there is one actor which can seriously disrupt the US operations in northern Syria, or even force the US to withdraw, it is Turkey. That kind of capability also gives Turkey a lot of bargaining power with Russia and Iran which I am sure Erdogan will carefully use to his own benefit. So far Erdogan has only threatened to deliver an “Ottoman slap” to the USA and Secretary of State Tillerson is traveling to Ankara to try to avert a disaster, but the Turkish instance that the USA chose either the Turkish or the Kurdish side in the conflict very severely limits the chances of any real breakthrough (the Israel lobby being 100% behind the Kurds). One should never say never, but I submit that it would take something of a miracle at this point to really salvage the US-Turkish relationship. Russia can try to capitalize on this dynamic.
The main weakness of this entire concept is, of course, that the USA is still powerful enough, including inside Turkey, and it would be very dangerous for Erdogan to try to openly confront and defy Uncle Sam. So far, Erdogan has been acting boldly and in overt defiance of the USA, but he also understands the risks of going too far and for him to even consider taking such risks there have to be prospects of major benefits from him. Here the Russians have two basic options: either to promise the Turks something very inciting or to somehow further deteriorate the current relationship between the US and Turkey. The good news here is that Russian efforts to drive a wedge between the US and Turkey are be greatly assisted by the US support for Israel, Kurds, and Gulenists.
The other obvious risk is that any anti-Kurdish operation can turn into yet another partition of Syria, this time by the Turks. However, the reality is that the Turks can’t really stay for too long in Syria, especially not if Russia and Iran oppose this. There is also the issue of international law which is much easier for the USA to ignore than for the Turks.
For all these reasons using the Turks to put pressure on the USA has its limitations. Still, if the Turks continue to insist that the USA stop supporting the Kurds, or if they continue putting military pressure on the Kurdish militias, then the entire US concept of a US-backed “mini-Kurdistan” collapses and, with it, the entire US partition plan for Syria.
So far, the Iraqis have quickly dealt with the US-sponsored “mini-Kurdistan” in Iraq and the Turks are now taking the necessary steps to deal with the US-sponsored “mini-Kurdistan” in Syria at which point *their* problem will be solved. The Turks are not interested in helping Assad or, for that matter, Putin and they don’t care what happens to Syria as long as *their* Kurdish problem is under control. This means that the Syrians, Russians, and Iranians should not place too much hope on the Turks turning against the USA unless, of course, the correct circumstances are created. Only the future will tell whether the Russians and the Iranians will be able to help to create such circumstances.
Step two: saturating Syria with mobile modern short/middle range air defenses
Right now nobody knows what kind of air-defense systems the Russians have been delivering to the Syrians over the past couple of years, but that is clearly the way to go for the Russians: delivering as many modern and mobile air defense systems to the Syrians. While this would be expensive, the best solution here would be to deliver as many Pantsir-S1 mobile Gun/SAM systems and 9K333 Verba MANPADs as possible to the Syrians and the Iranians. The combination of these two systems would immensely complicate any kind of air operations for the US Americans and Israelis, especially since there would be no practical way of reliably predicting the location from which they could operate. And since both the USA and Israel are operating in the Syrian skies in total violation of international law while the Syrian armed forces would be protecting their own sovereign airspace, such a delivery of air-defense systems by Russia to Syria would be impeccably legal. Best of all, it would be absolutely impossible for the AngloZionist to know who actually shot at them since these weapon systems are mobile and easy to conceal. Just like in Korea, Vietnam or Lebanon, Russian crews could even be sent to operate the Syrian air defense systems and there would be no way for anybody to prove that “the Russians did it” when US and Israeli aircraft would start falling out of the skies. The Russians would enjoy what the CIA calls “plausible deniability”. The US Americans and Israelis would, of course, turn against the weaker party, the Syrians, but that other than feeling good that would not really make a difference on the ground as the Syrians skies would not become safer for US or Israelis air forces.
The other option for the Russians would be to offer upgrades (software and missile) to the existing Syrian air defense systems, especially their road-mobile 2K12 Kub and 9K37 Buk systems. Such upgrades, especially if combined with enough deployed Pantsirs and Verbas would be a nightmare for both the US Americans and the Israelis. The Turks would not care much since they are already basically flying with the full approval of the Russians anyway, and neither would the Iranians who, as far as I know, have no air operations in Syria.
One objection to this plan would be that two can play this game and that there is nothing preventing the USA from sending even more advanced MANPADs to their “good terrorist” allies, but that argument entirely misses the point: if both sides do the same thing, the side which is most dependent on air operations (the USA) stands to lose much more than the side which has the advantage on the ground (the Russians). Furthermore, by sending MANPADs to Syria, the USA is alienating a putative ally, Turkey, whereas if Russia sends MANPADs and other SAMs to Syria the only one who will be complaining will be the Israelis. When that happens, the Russians will have a simple and truthful reply: we did not start this game, your US allies did, you can go and thank them for this mess.
The main problem in Syria is the fact that the US and the Israelis are currently operating in the Syrian skies with total impunity. If this changes, this will be a slow and gradual process. First, there would be a few isolated losses (like the Israeli F-16 recently), then we would see that the location of US and/or Israeli airstrikes would gradually shift from urban centers and central command posts to smaller, more isolated targets (such as vehicle columns). This would indicate an awareness that the most lucrative targets are already too well defended. Eventually, the number of air sorties would be gradually replaced by cruise and ballistic missiles strikes. Underlying it all would be a shift from offensive air operations to force protection which, in turn, would give the Syrians, Iranians, and Hezbollah a much easier environment to operate in. But the necessary first step for any of that to happen would be to dramatically increase the capability of Syrian air defenses.
Hezbollah has, for decades, very successfully operated under a total Israelis air supremacy and their experience of this kind of operations would be invaluable to the Syrians until they sufficiently built up their air defense capabilities.
Conclusion: is counter-escalation really the only option?
Frankly, I am starting to believe that the Empire has decided to attempt upon a partial “reconquista” of Syria, even Macron is making some noises about striking the Syrians to “punish” them for their use of (non-existing) chemical weapons. At the very least, the USA wants to make the Russians pay as high a price as possible for their role in Syria. Further US goals in Syria include:
- The imposition of a de-facto partition of Syria by taking under control the Syrian territory east of the Euphrates river (we could call that “plan C version 3.0”)
- The theft of the gas fields located in northeastern Syria
- The creation of a US-controlled staging area from which Kurdish, good terrorist and bad terrorist operations can be planned and executed
- The sabotaging of any Russian-backed peace negotiations
- The support for Israeli operations against Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Syria
- Engaging in regular attacks against Syrian forces attempting to liberate their country from foreign invaders
- Presenting the invasion and occupation of Syria as one of the “victories” promised by Trump to the MIC and the Israel lobby
So far the Russian response to this developing strategy has been a rather a passive one and the current escalation strongly suggests that a new approach might be needed. The shooting down of the Israeli F-16 is a good first step, but much more needs to be done to dramatically increase the costs the Empire will have to pay for is policies towards Syria. The increase in the number of Russian commentators and analysts demanding a stronger reaction to the current provocations might be a sign that something is in the making.
“First, there would be a few isolated losses (like the Israeli F-16 recently), then we would see that the location of US and/or Israeli airstrikes would gradually shit from urban centers and central command posts to smaller, more isolated targets (such as vehicle columns).”
You might want to fix that typo. ;-)
typo? what typo?
fixed, thanks a lot, it did give a strange meaning to that sentence, did it not?
Cheers and thanks
;) Slowly but surely the shift hits the fan…
‘Killing Russians “on the margins”, so to speak, either with plausible deniability or, alternatively, killing Russians private contractors is much safer and thus far more tempting option’.
Remind anyone of this?
‘Former CIA deputy director Michael Morell, who supports Hillary Clinton and insists that Donald Trump is being manipulated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that Russians and Iranians in Syria should be killed covertly to “pay the price.”’
‘The bottom line is this: since the US Americans have declared that they will (illegally) stay in Syria until the situation “stabilizes” they now must do everything their power to destabilize Syria’.
Reminds me of the notorious Imperial Japanese Navy order of the day. Perhaps we might say that Washington’s policy is:
“The bombings will continue until stability improves”.
Well, just as The Saker says, the first step is done – Israeli F16, and the downed missiles. Next, will be the “alied” airplanes. But, propaganda just got cranked up with “millions” of Russians dead. mod-to note: line deleted as a false assertion. I believe that Russia will use Syrians as a “deniability factor”, for as long as they can.
“pro-government militias” which are working with Russian PMC’s appear to be a few km down the ‘deniability road’ already.
The 4 principle objectives of the Israeli’s and their American dog in Syria:
1. Removing a government that was resistant to globalist debt-death finance.
2. In concert with the ‘pipe cutting’ operation in Ukraine, to push through a Axis of Evil controlled gas pipe line from Qatar to the EU to strangle Russia.
3. Partition of Syria, creating US military controlled Kurdistan to the North (with oil fields) to control Syria between two fronts, plus annexation of Golan heights as part of ‘greater Israel’.
4. Sinking Russia into another Afghanistan.
1 & 2 have failed.
3 & 4 are still in play.
It is as simple as that.
To the point where a hard core element of the proud, observing and wise element of the Russian Military gets tired of Putin’s seeming kiss-ass “diplomacy” where he and Lavrov keep speaking of their “Western partners”. With all of their modern military hardware, I predict they see a fair fight, while their troops keeps getting battered and betrayed in Syria and Ukraine. In my opinion (which most won’t share), Russia has its own “deep state” and it’s not the 5ht column idiots spoken of by PCR, et al. It’s a hardcore element of nationalists that are teetering on the brink of a takeover and when their backs are to the wall, all hell will break loose. Putin, should he stand up, risks a regional confrontation that will favor the “East”, but the alternative is that all Hell will break loose globally.
@ NATO blues
I don’t believe that. The game is a waiting one. Of keeping tensions to a tolerable minimum while watching the beast die. The US can not either launch a pre-emptive strike from its isolated island without everyone seeing them coming. They can not guarantee a win on first salvo at anyone other than ME weaklings. And they can not sustain a war at any scale for more than a few months.
The tide of history has irretrievably turned. The US had hegemony within reach in the 80’s-90’s. But a tiny % of world population (4%) can not motivate the remainder to join them, can not dominate by force, can not resupply an army at vast distances, rely on its partners or control the banks in 2018. And it is running out of friends that want to buy its funny money debt. And so on.
The Russians seem to know that they are both on the brink of war, if the US gets its way, and simultaneously on the brink of a world renaissance, where we enjoy a chapter of win-win sovereign relationships. Not provoking war is a good plan. Not allowing the US to start the one they want is another. Keeping all doors open to dialogue is the third. Close those off and war is certain. Especially a rich man knows that.
The US, UK, Israel are pretty much on their own now, and they would like us plebs to think they can pull off a big war. The Russians, Chinese and the US, even the Norks, know they can’t.
NATO, by the way, will vaporise if real shooting starts. I have mates who have been on exercise with the Spanish and French. An utter joke.
The West does not want war with Russia. They want Russia to be the Orwellian enemy that they can use to stay in power. This is particularly true in Washington. It is now 100% united against Russia and the propaganda campaign has worked. No longer does anyone fear Trump, who is now trapped by a coup d’etat by the National Security State which has agreed to keep him in power as head of state and as court jester–though Trump may fool them and drag his feet at times as Obama did from time to time. But unlike during the Obama era the media both news and entertainment are on the side of the National Security State 100% and the left has been utterly destroyed by its rapid lighting like movement to the right thus outflanking all elements of the once upon a time right-wing which is now sort of the left-wing. The actuall left consists has been literally decimated and is 1 tenth the size of what it was during the Bernie days.
A related analysis in RT on the situation in Syria that exposes the israeli role there behind the terrorists.
Syria strikes back as Israel discovers its warplanes aren’t invincible (Op-ed)
“Israel has long been the unchallenged bully in the Middle East, but now Tel Aviv will face consequences for its temper tantrums. That was the message from Damascus last weekend when the Syrian army shot down an Israeli F-16.
As usual, Israel painted itself as a victim of irrational Arab aggression. However, in fact, Syria was clearly acting in self-defence against repeated Israeli violations of its sovereignty.
Even the head of the Israeli Air Force Air Division confessed that his country has carried out “thousands of operations in Syria” in the last year alone. This fact was missing from most mainstream news accounts, which portrayed Israel as a non-interventionist bystander in the Syrian conflict. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Not only has Israel repeatedly bombed Syrian government installations, it has also armed Jihadist rebel groups in the Golan Heights, coordinated with Al-Qaeda’s Syria affiliate against government forces and provided medical treatment to Al-Qaeda and Islamic State-linked rebels before sending them back into battle.”
This rationale is starting to remind me of the MSM. Syria is a host and grantor or Russia/Russian military bases. Why then does not the Russians supply their “ally” with S-400 systems and/or help track and shoot down any intruding aircraft with their current upgraded S-200 systems? Until this question is truthfully answered all cards remain on the table.
Two key issues with this as an operational concept:
1) Regardless of the original manufacturing point of the MANPAD, it downed a Russian plane from the hands of a Turkish/SDF combatant. Also, Erdogan is still the #1 advocate of regime change in Syria.*
A unitary state structure would have a legal framework that ensures an eventual regime change in Syria produces an opposition government that exercises political power over the entire country. This outcome would be highly beneficial for Turkey’s geopolitical interests, as it would allow Syria to potentially become a Turkish ally if Assad were to fall from power.
Encouraging Erdogan to expand operations in Syria is incredibly risky as his forces could attack South towards Damascus instead of West. It seems unlikely that Assad or Putin would be willing to gamble on their ability to predict/control Erdogan’s behaviour.
2) Assuming that Turkey-NATO relations are destroyed in the manner suggested, where will freed up NATO forces reposition?
While the idea of reducing NATO activity in Syria sounds good on paper it could readily lead to increased NATO activity in areas of much deeper concern to Russia, such as the Baltics or Ukraine. Keeping NATO focused on Syria serves Putin’s interest by tying up resources. It seems unlike that he would risk these other more critical locations for potential gains in Syria.
I agree that Erdogan is a major spanner in the works for all parties. He is most certainly exploiting both Russia’s objective to not escalate, as well as the US’s ‘interests’. He is a historically accurate re-incarnation of a duplicitous Turkoman politician.
He has offended and compromised almost everybody. I think he and his family will end up dead. The timing of this depends on who has their loyal stand-in lined up first. With Galen’s network gone, it is Russia’s turn in my view.
Why does Erdogan want Assad taken out?
What has Syria done to Turkey?
Israeli foreign policy=USSA lapdog orders.
The US will do exactly what its masters in Tel Aviv tell them to do. The Russians should indeed find a way to make them pay a price for their incursions into Syrian air space. I am not convinced that Russia can offer the Turks enough of an incentive to intervene, and in any case there is the very real danger that the Turks might decide to stay once they did.
Neither the Russians nor the Americans can trust Turkey to any great degree, because politics in Turkey has traditionally been based on treachery and deceit. The Turks would like nothing better than to play Russians against Americans and visa versa, but even they know this would be going too far, as there are limits.
When it comes to Turkey, the Russians have the advantage, in the short term certainly, and probably in the long term. Erdogan cannot forget that the US instigated that coup d’etat against him, and that Russia saved his life, literally, warning him of the approaching coup and sending combat planes to prevent his own plane being shot down. Even Russian AA missile systems in Syria protected Erdogans life, the plotters receiving warnings from Russian ground crews. Erdogan knows the EU will never accept him, and Turkeys membership of NATO is more than a liability, becoming dangerous. The last thing Erdogan wants is for Turkey to be involved in a possible US war against Iran, let alone in a war against Russia, for which Turkey would pay a price.
Some analysts have speculated that Turkey and the US could make a deal at the expense of Russia. Not impossible, but unlikely, as neither side could trust the other. As far as I can see, Erdogan is playing the waiting game, waiting for the right moment to leave NATO and prevent Turkey being dragged into a potential US led war, from which Turkey has nothing to gain but plenty to lose. I think even the US knows this, which is the reason it will try another coup against Erdogan, and Erdogan knows it. Turkey is now playing a balancing act, waiting for the right moment to turn to Russia and China and their economic alliances.
One well known analyst has stated that it’s only a matter of time before both the EU and NATO implode. NATO’s implosion could well start with Turkey exiting.
As for Russia, it will stay in Syria for a long time. I don’t see the US staying too long, as it’s tactical position in northern Syria is dangerous, the supply lines being easily cut. Yes, the US could, in conjunction with Saudi Arabia and Israel, attack Iran. However, the repercussions would be tremendous. The US would not get any European backing, while such a move could well speed up Turkey’s exit from NATO.
I don’t see the US staying too long, as it’s tactical position in northern Syria is dangerous, the supply lines being easily cut.
If Syria’s enhanced air defenses can routinely knock out the U.S.’s cargo planes, the U.S. position in Syria will be seriously damaged.
For our part, we must tell commentators on this issue to stop claiming the US has changed its position on Assad and Syria because tillerson/kerry/whoever said something that seemed like a ray of light (anyone Orthodox, by the way, should be immune to the idea of humans producing rays of light). The goal has remained the same and will never change – to take out Assad and create a Northern vassal state. Anyone suggesting otherwise is doing disinfo for the Empire.
mod-to note: last line removed as unnecessary to the comment and inflammatory.
Thanks, everyone, for your insights on these issues. In light of Mr. Trump’s recent statement about a big military parade he would like to see staged later this year (at a cost of at least thirty million dollars) , I can’t help but wonder what kind of “victory” or Make America Great Again big win he wants to pull out of the hat that would make the parade even more appropriate……”victory” over North Korea? ? ? “victory” in Syria? ? I am very concerned about the whole timetable. Hopefully these wars aren’t being waged with glowing visions of rapid effortless victories. The flip side to that is that these wars are being waged with the intent of dragging on for half of forever, consuming as many human lives as possible, and above all, destroying as much human hope and love as possible.
RT carrying news usa is to increase its stockpile of miltary shells be 800%………
Maybe and maybe it is just a clerical notation.
The reason I say that is because something very, very odd is happening in and at both the US Budget Office and the Pentagon:
If you go to youtube the professor has an excellent interview with one of his colleagues whose research indicates that the actual amount that has “gone missing” is 41 Trillion since 1998.
Further the Equifax hack may be the most recent open door to scoop an extraordinary amount of the missing funds as all military agencies and contractors were instructed to switch to Equifax in about a year before the hack.
Even humans produce biophotons,Steve.
true, apparently as much as a candle from 10 km away
Relatively successful drone attack?
They were all shot down or downed by ECM, i can’t see how that was successful (for the US that is).
because the mortars did land and kill personnel.
A positive note from analyst 6 1/2hr ago. [Basically the enemy continues in retreat]:
“… the deal between the Syrian Government and Afrin Canton is begin to take shape and has the best shot to be signed today or tomorrow. This is as close to a deal as it has ever, so this time all sides are determined to get it done.
“It is early to celebrated, as I mentioned yesterday, there are other players that may influence in the last minute, but it is encouraging.
When I say celebrate, it means this deal (assuming the Syrian Government takes full control of State business and the SAA is fully present in all Canton with minimum possibility of setbacks with armed militias), will influence the years to come in Syria, Sheikh Maksud (which is slowly being absorbed into normal life in Aleppo) will be the first to join the deal completely.
We will see impact in Hasaka city and Province, where many inhabitants (Arabs and Kurds doe support the Syrian Government). This deal could be a message to the US that it is time to get out with some dignity or it will get uglier as time goes by…..”
watch the old footage of helicopters flying from the rooftops in Saigon. “Ugly” doesn’t worry the US elites that control policy. They’ll gladly trade ‘ugly’ for any small benefit, and the same elites have no problems putting the lives of the people who are foolishly loyal to them into great danger.
The great philosopher George Carlin famously once said, “its a small club. And you ain’t in it.” They only care about the members of their club, and will sacrifice a few of them when forced to. But they don’t care about ‘ugly’ and they make sure that no members of the club are among the last to flee Saigon and beyond that they don’t care about anyone or anything else if it gets into the way of their grabs for power and wealth.
You could always count on George with his spot on critique of the establishment and other subjects. May he rest in peace.
Given its precarious situation, maybe Turkey will eventually try to patch its relations with Syria, although I see no sign of this so far.
Very difficult , one week ( may ten days) ago all Turkish newspapers published a photo of Erdogan : at his right side the prime minister, and at the left side the previous prime minister Davutoglu.
Davutoglu has been the most important planner of the Syrian war , big ally of the USA. He was obliged to resign and practically disappear from the political scene when Erdogan when to Putin excusing himself for the shooting down of a Russian plane. Now he ( and his policies ) seem to have made a full scale coming back .
The US is still trying to use the Kurds to manipulate Turkey into a direct conflict with Syria. Erdoğan still wants to overthrow Assad as does the US.
Erdoğan’s blocking Syria in Idlib and the possible movement of SA into Afrin sets up this potential confrontation.
The question is will Turkey take the bit if its observation forces are challenged or attecked in Idlib, and send in theTurkish army, or will they back off and leave the fighting to their Takfiri? The US hopes that the former will occur.
Finally, welcome to the armchair HQ where I have been proposing more missile defenses and a virtual closing of the Syrian airspace.
RF will stay passive till end of World Cup (where US did not “qualify”).
Afterwards all bets are off (all fronts).
TK can at best act as party spoiler and taking attention away from other areas. Can’t be trusted.
One can just win time.
RF could also retaliate with caliber hits at still ISIS areas, where for sure critical resources are embedded, just like was done last year at Aleppo.
“The support for Israeli operations against Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Syria”
I believe this is where US and Israeli intentions are. With the defeat of the US/Israel/Saudi plan to degrade Syria’s military preparatory to an Israel attack on Lebanon, Israel now wants to up the ante by getting the US to join it in an attack on Hizballah in Lebanon and then the US will find a way to justify extending that war into Syria.
Tillerson just attacked Hizballah again today as part of the ramp-up”
Tillerson says Hezbollah a danger to Lebanon
Tillerson w/Hariri. Says it all.
President Aoun decides about Hezbollah, and he already has decided he wants them, he wants Russia and he wants no relationship with Hegemon.
Tillerson is a traveling carnival show. Sad to see a man used as a puppet.
Lebanon is being presented with two diametrically opposite choices: a) attempt to disarm Hezbollah so that it stops threatening Israeli off-shore claims or water access wishes in southern Lebanon. b) provide access to Russian navy assets on all your ports. The first choice is just political suicide. The second choice will infuriate the Hegemon.
The last shooting skirmish between Syria and Israel caused much more than a downed F16I. It caused consternation because the Air Space at Ben Gurion was officially closed during the hostilities. Elijah Magnier ejmagnier.com asserts that his Syrian sources confirm a decision to rain down a couple of dozen Surface to Surface missiles over Israeli towns in the Golan Heights or anywhere in Israel if IAF violates Syrian air space sovereignty. The fact that Israel immediately after mobilized to strengthened its Air Defense batteries to the Northern border speaks to that threat.
Hezbollah also confirmed that an Israeli vs Syria + Hezbollah war will include the resistance striking targets in Israel’s off shore Gas and Oil interests. The war front will be wider including Israel occupied Golan Heights, Shebaa farms, Off Shore gas rigs operated by Israel.
In Syria’s East the Hegemon is in an untenable situation. Weaponizing the Kurds against Turkey will result in an accelerated Turkey-exit from NATO on the least and an inter NATO clash on the worst case.
It is with this in mind that I am convinced that this is the beginning of the war called Armageddon in the Bible. The Tel Megiddo is a man made mound in Northern Israel that dominates this famous battlefield.
The next Front is now in Northern Israel as proven by the location of the downed F16 and by Israeli fortification of its Northern Air Defense.
The premillenial dispensationalist eschatology is a farce. There will be no “rapture”, no final pitched battle of Armageddon, none of Hal Lindsey or Tim LaHaye’s lucrative sensationalism.
Revelation happened to the early church. The Jewish persecutors and the old Israel were completely destroyed in AD 70.
The return of Jesus is the only prediction yet to be seen.
On a related note…. it is now apparently illegal to have opposed the Deep State’s candidacy of Hillary for President. 13 people indicted by the US prosecutors for “supporting the presidential campaign of then-candidate Donald J. Trump…and disparaging Hillary Clinton.”
The faction in the USA that seems to desperately want a nuclear war is now prosecuting people who opposed their candidate who virtually promised that nuclear war as a part of her campaign platform. Trying to save humanity is no defence apparently against charges that one interfered with the Deep State’s plans for nuclear war.
Note, that this is not an isolated ruling. The people like priests and nuns who’ve protested against America’s nuclear arsenal have had judges rule in court that arguments about the illegality of such programs (in violation of nuclear non-proliferation treaty) nor the immorality of planning to kill every living human and wipe out the human race are not permissible defenses to make against the charges filed against them.
Apparently one is now free to either die in a nuclear holocaust or to spend probably years in a US prison. The land of the free!
“The faction in the USA that seems to desperately want a nuclear war is now prosecuting people who opposed their candidate who virtually promised that nuclear war as a part of her campaign platform.”
That “faction” is the trump regime (cough) justice department. They are who indicted the 13. Do the math. The trump regime is the “deep state”.
The 13 indictments were brought by Special Prosecutor Mueller. Due to Jeff Sessions recusal, he is answerable only to Deep State Globalist, Asst. AG Rod Rosenstein. 0% Trump involvement.
The indictments are so sketchy they are almost certain to collapse.
When I hear the frequency of truth…
In my opinion any reactions by Russia to the escalating provocations in Syria and elsewhere will be muted, and this includes if serving Russian Military are killed again. There are a number of reasons for this but again in my opinion this muted response has nothing to do with the upcoming election and/or the football champion ships which, by the way, will probably be withdrawn at the last minute as yet another calculated insult to Russia.
Muted response has been the norm from Russia for quite some years but on the other hand this in no way means there was no and/or will not be a response. Take for instance the pinpoint accuracy mortar attack on the field hospital last year that killed our doctors and nurses who were in place to treat Syrian civilians. I will not go in to the mechanics of this attack but I know exactly how it was done and I am willing to guaranty you that the highly trained and expert foreign team that did the attack is not alive today nor were they alive 3 days after the attack. It is the same with the team that shot down our Dry 25. They are dead. Period. However, killing these teams after they do their deed does not negate the damage they do in the first place and therein is the problem.
There are two ways to stop these ongoing and guaranteed to escalate attacks. One, Russia surrenders and pulls everyone and everything back to within her borders. Not going to happen. Period. Two, Russia continues on her implacable course of steady pressure on the Empire to not so much as defeat her but to preserve Russian interests and world interests, world interests meaning peace on this war wracked planet we call home.
In the near future, read a good part of this year, you can expect escalating attacks and provocations against any Russian interests and this will include both Syria and Ukraine plus southern and western Russia, proposed or in process gas supply lines and various business and industrial projects and agreements between Russia and other countries. I have few doubts that the orcs will be ordered to attack Novorossiya within a week of the Russian elections and at the same time the well known coming false flag chemical attack in Syria will take place. Both attacks will result in increasingly serious sanctions against Russia in attempts to turn the Russian populace against President Putin and foment a revolution against the government. This will not happen, that is a given, but the sanctions will hurt an ever widening part of the populace. Russians are a pretty tough bunch and additional sanctions will do nothing but make the Russians more resolved to support their government and culture.
In the end, Russia will persevere and while we will have more and more of our servicemen and women coming home dead, we will win in the end. The Empire is dying, that is obvious, but a dying animal is if anything more dangerous than when young and healthy. Therein is the real problem, will the empire in it’s death throes pull down the entire world with it.
One more little detail. The number of Russian citizens under contract to Syria killed in the now world famous attack is three, two dead and one wounded who died. End of story, except for the grieving widows and families in Russia and Syria.
Sevastopol, The Third Defense. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B079KRPLS4 Book 1, A Premonition, The Move South
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
“…the football championships which, by the way, will probably be withdrawn at the last minute as yet another calculated insult to Russia.”
The thought crossed my mind when Putin met FIFA President Gianni Infantino (12/2/2018, 19:20) but the customary summary was omitted. Only 2 photos. And just the two of them and an interpreter – not even the Sports minister. http://thesaker.is/escalation-in-syria-how-far-can-the-russians-be-pushed/
Previous Putin-Infantino meetings were recorded verbatim, with Infantino always very jolly, for examples:
“… So really, my big thanks to you and all the Russian people for what you are doing for us, for football, for everyone who loves this fantastic game. It is amazing. I am impressed and I will continue to be impressed. … Together we will show to the world what we can do.”
“This will not happen, that is a given, but the sanctions will hurt an ever widening part of the populace.”
I hope sanctions will not hurt many Russian citizens. Since neither the Russian government, nor the Russian citizens live in a make-believe world, they could suspect that the West will not give up with its efforts at destabilizing the Russian Federation. Russia, in corporation with China can produce pretty neat hich-tech gadgets. The Chines are able to produce excellent quality (if they want to). Who needs many Western products (often produced to fail – planned obsolescence) if the Russians have learned to develop / produce quality stuff themselves?
True and I believe this is the correct policy. Dramatic confrontations with the US are not in Russia’s interest. There is also the issue that Trump is looking increasingly like a winner, in the Russian collusion fight. If the republicans do well in the up coming elections, he will be able to put that vicious battle behind him. This will open up possibilities for the US to cooperate with Russia, if only tacitly, in Syria and Ukraine. I think Saker is way too hard on Trump, his zig-zagging on Russia is due to his domestic issues. The possibilities for friendship between Russia and the US remain. Edgar Cayce the US’s “Sleeping Prophet” predicted in 1932 and 1944 that:
1944: ” What then of nations? In Russia there comes the hope of the world, not as that sometimes termed of the Communistic, of the Bolshevistic; no. But freedom, freedom! that each man will live for his fellow man! The principle has been born. It will take years for it to be crystallized, but out of Russia comes again the hope of the world. Guided by what? That friendship with the nation that hath even set on its present monetary unit “In God We Trust.” “
1932:”On Russia’s religious development will come the greater hope of the world. Then that one, or group, that is the closer in its relationships, may fare the better in the gradual changes and final settlement of conditions as to the rule of the world. “
And someone else predicted this (which by the way explains russophobia – the dark forces working through some nations and individuals to try & prevent Russia from fulfilling her destiny):
“Russia is the home of a germinating revelation of great spiritual value and group significance—a revelation for all mankind.
“The true secret of brotherhood (one hitherto unknown and unrealized) is hers to give the world, but as yet she knows not what it is. This fact, that Russia is the spiritual custodian of a revelation, is sensed by the other nations in the world; …
[That’s why] all peoples view Russia with expectation; they dimly realize that from her will come some new thing, for Russia is rapidly maturing and integrating and will demonstrate that she has much to give.
the apparition at Medjugorje, 1981: “In the end, Russia will glorify My Son more than any other nation.”
If the wave/particle duality of quantum mechanics also applies to consciousness, then the ego is a big dumbass that thinks it’s separate, in control and the centre of the personality; when in reality it’s only the centre of the field of consciousness.
The author of quotes except of the last sentence is Alice Bailey.
All this speculating is interesting enough, yet, it begs the question; what is the actual reason for America’s presence in Syria? One word answer; water. Control its water sources, i.e. the Euphrates and Tigris, and the M.E. is yours.
Not really, it’s about subservience to Israel geopolitical interests.
Unlikely- Turkey controls the flows upstream of Syria and Iraq. If controlling these rivers was a fundamental objective of US policy, USA would be making nice with the Turks, not canoodling with with the Kurds. In any case, controlling these rivers only affects Syria and Iraq, not the rest of the ME.
Can someone please explain why China has not provided real assistance in Syria in terms of sending their defense forces namely their air force and navy? If anything it would provide them with real combat experience which they may more than possibly need to rely on in any potential conflicts with Taiwan and the South China Sea. I really dont understand their “neutrality” with this situation. Russia really needs their help right now or the consequences of this whole Syrian situation will just be unimaginable.
China has been supplying material and trainers to the Syrians – this is documented.
What is not known is how far that level of support has gone. As I mentioned in another post a few weeks ago, supplying Chinese military personnel to Syria – overtly – is not in China’s strategic interest. If they actually supply ‘unattached’ Chinese troops it will be covert and very quiet.
Why would Stingers be sent to the Kurds by the USA if there is Israel in the vicinity ?
We all know American /NATO forces were deployed to Israel just recently.
Be strong and alert , Russia !
@ main purpose of the entire US deployment in northern Syria:
I think main purpose for the US in northern Syria is:
– to establish Kurdish state, from which Americans would control the whole Middle East,
– to build pipelines from the Gulf to Turkey and Europe, and to dictate the prices of oil and petrol,
– to exploit local gas and oil fields.
Surely Russia must have anticipated that the powers-that-be in the US would never admit defeat and cease interfereing. This will always be the case. It’s a consequence of the US ubermensch mentality.
As ever, to anticipate US behavior one must ask oneself ‘what would the Mafia do?’
No it’s much more simple. If one wants to anticipate what they will do as a next step just ask yourself what would the lowest scum do, and your bet will hit better than 50% absolutly certain..
Read carefully because everything is coming into view.
At the begining of WW1 the British, in an incident involving the battlecruiser Goeben, placed under a Turkish flag but still operated by a German crew, shelled Odessa pushing the Ottomans into the war on the side of the Central Powers.
The Young Turks had wanted very badly to be on the side of the Entente, but this did not matter because the British plan was to carve up the Ottoman Empire, ultimately aiming to control all of it’s oil (imagine how much oil it would control if it were around today), and so after the war it was dismantled and the British-made stooge Attaturk was installed.
The same strategy is being enacted today vis a vis Turkey and Russia. Erdogan is the direct inheritor of the Young Turk political tradition and he is also a stooge of the British.
What is the proof that the Turks are controlled by the British?
There are many but one obvious link concerns the Anglo-Zionist propaganda and the chemical weapons ‘management’ organization known as White Helmets, which are imbedded with Turkish controlled HTS in Northern Syria, thus dilineating a crystal clear link to support what I am describing. There was also the recent drone attack on the Russian Khmeimim made from Turkish controlled Syrian territory, an attack which the Russians expalined was not ‘Turkish’ without further elaborating.
The Russians understood the attack on Khmeimim was perpetrated by British Intelligence, and so they gave Turkey a pass.
Now, imagine you are the Russians and your best bets for a military ally in Syria are Turkey and perhaps Iran.
What would you think?
Under no circumstances would you even consider exposing your armies to dependence on Turkish support or supply lines to Syria which could easily be blocked. To do so would be suicide.
Therefore the Russian strategy is delay delay delay, because they understand there are no good options for them in a war against the Perfidious Ones in Syria, who are effectively allied to China despite mountains of (scarcely believable) propaganda suggesting China supports Russia, which is in itself an absolute load of Dung Xiaoping.
But the Anglo-Zionists, like the Russians, all together understand these surface calculations and so the Perfidious Ones are going one better, to entice the Russians into overestimating their strength and becoming more deeply involved in Syria especially.
This involves convincing the Russians that the Pentagon junta which controls the Whitehouse of Donald Trump is also on their side and would effectively (as it sometimes appears) support Russia in a wider war, thus changing the Kremlin calculation, however, despite close cooperation in Syria between the Russians and Pentagon, and in alternative media which is generally pro Russian and pro-Pentagon, it seems the Russians are not fooled and will do their best to keep options for withdrawal from Syria open.
This is why Putin has twice declared a Russian withdrawal from Syria. The Russians understand they have no good options in a direct confrontation with the West and further their greatest potential ally in the region, the Iranians, are themselves playing a double game, also secretly alligned to the Peridious Ones, as has been highlighted repeatedly by Thierry Meyssan.
Should the Iranians wish it they could sweep the US and SDF Kurds out of eastern Syria and northern Iraq in no time flat. It is the secret cooperation of the Iranians and Pentagon in Iraq and eastern Syria which gives the game away concerning the role of the Pentagon. By threatening to tear up the nuclear agreement, which in any case gives the Iranians nothing and relinquishes over 100 billion dollars of Iranian assets held since the Iranian revolution, the Trump administration is creating a pretext which appears to be holding the Iranians back from full cooperation with Russia and ultimately, from victory in this war.
I am sorry, I made an error in the second paragraph of my comment above…
At the begining of WW1 the British, in an incident involving the battlecruiser Goeben, placed under a Turkish flag but still operated by a German crew, shelled Odessa pushing the Ottomans into the war on the side of the Central Powers.
It was the Germans, in cooperation with the British, who shelled Odessa and brought the Ottomans into the side of the Central Powers in WW1.
The Germans were secretly cooperating with the British, as is described at the link below:
The story told in the link I have posted above also engages in misdirection but the basica are correct, about how the British with allies and assets across Europe, including in Germany, setup the allignments of WW1, is generally correct.
What is today best described as the Transnational ZIonist Elite is an extension of British intelligence of that period and with it’s assets it controls all important nations in the world today except Russia.
In Russia the Tranational Zionist Elite/British Intelligence controls the Atlanticist faction, but (hopefully) not the Eurasianist faction including people such as Igor Sechin. Putin must mediate between these two factions in Russia (Atlaticists and Eurasianists) so by no means is Russia unconstrained.
There seems to much more to the story than the Young Turks..
The destruction of the Ottoman empire could have begun in New Orleans, La. in 1865, when several slave traders and whale and shark oil fisherman realized Petroleum oil was about to replace Shark and Whale oil. This led to Britain and to Germany and Russia [each with Royal relatives interrelated by marriage), The Germans offered the Ottomans about 1873 a highway to Berlin in exchange for the right to produce the oil in Baghdad Iraq. Then there was BISMARK and the treaty of Berlin, The real focus of the quest for Arab oil came in 1897 in Switzerland , (the banker backed organizational meeting of the Zionist (first Zionist Congress, Hertzl). Behind the scenes the plan evolved to use the “PLIGHT OF THE JEWS, especially those in Eastern Europe” as a carrier frequency (a channel already wired to the psychology of the Jewish person, Jewish Emotions would drive the Jews to the land of the Ottoman, and land law would establish ownership by deed, the Arabs like the American Indian did not really understand property law. USA used rule of law to take the land inhabited by the American Indian. Moving as many Jews as possible in to the oil rich area would allow possession of the land by assimilation? Exactly how that would be done was evolving, it was a work in process.
the occupation targeted several oil rich areas and other places.
The Belfour Agreement (1914 or close?) gave focus to a place to start. population explosion (Jews would occupy the entire area) and eventually property laws would be imposed on the Arabs and that would allow for incoming immigrants to acquire or take ownership. The British acquisition of the Arab land in the Post WWI treaties, made it possible to establish the rule of property law.
can you confirm any of this? with a reference???
@fudmer. The standard history of the A-Z-C oil wars is Engdahl’s “Century of War”. But it seems to me your interpretation goes further back than the British Navy’s need to convert from coal to oil, and the British Empire’s need to destroy Germany as an industrial competitor. Whale oil? Is Hermann Melville’s great poetic novel, Moby Dick, was not only an ecological protest against Man’s senseless destruction of wild life but also a prophetic denunciation of the capitalist oil industry?
“the Transnational ZIonist Elite… controls all important nations in the world today except Russia.”
Does it also control China and other Asian nations? I can accept it may control US dominated countries such as Vietnam, Japan and South Korea but China?
Please, could you provide the link of the article by Theirry Meyssan where he states the Iranians are playing a double game?
From where did you get the idea that China is allied to the ‘Perfidous Ones’ in Syria? From the MSM or a ‘fake news’ blog?
China does support Russia. Both Russia and China are fighting back to back with the evil Empire. For Russia, the fight is existential. The Empire wants to reduce Russia to the rude little Muscovy from which she grew. For China, they wish to enslave a vast market and super wealthy producing economy to enrich themselves. From Russia, they want no less than 6.5 million square miles of land. That’s why I have always urged a policy of developing Russia’s economy and increasing her population. Russia has two choices: 1) join NATO, but this would not prevent the evil Empire from reducing Russia to old Muscovy; or 2) join in a de jure alliance with China through the SCO – which she had done. But more is needed. E.g. create an Afro-SCO alliance and joint security forces.
And leave Israel alone. Let God Almighty deal with Israel. Ensure Israel her security and pray. God Almighty is just. Trust Him. And return or hold fast to the true faith centered on Jesus Christ as Lord and Saviour.
And I would add for what it is worth: the long game now being played, especially by China against the evil Empire, is an economic war of attrition. Russia cannot afford to lose the long game as an economic collapse would lead to a population collapse of an already fragile demographic. But China will hold up Russia economically within Eurasia and the SCA.
An economic collapse of the evil Empire will not lead its population collapse. But it will lead to its balkanisation i.e. its breaking up into smaller states roughly along the US civil war lines of 1861 – 1865. But it will likely pacify the US for 200 years if not for good.
The infrastructure to cushion the impact of the Empire’s economic collapse is already readied by China. In another 3 years time, if trade with the empire collapse to say USD300B, trade with the rest of the world turbocharged by the B&R initiative will more than make up for the shortfall of USD400B.
But China will try to prevent a catastrophic collapse of the US economy.
Russia should now try to replenish her population…fast. Russia needs a population of at least 300 million to survive for the longer term. Use incentives. Use even legal-social coercion. Use immigration. And loosen social controls to make Russia a more attractive destination for immigration.
China, Russia, EU, Africa and South America will need to cooperate to legitimise the founding of a new, prosperous and more peaceful world order which should in the longer term integrate or reintegrate the new nations that will result from the break-up of the evil Empire.
I think, the Russians are quiet due to the upcoming elections, and as always, they will hit the Gringos some time later and somewhere else at their will…
I don’t think the question, “What will be the Russian response to further provocation?” is the right question. Although Russia is doing the right thing, assisting Syria at its request to fight terrorism and launching a legitimate peace process, from the twisted viewpoint of Rogue State and Hegemon, these actions are provocation. Any action that prevents Rogue State and Hegemon from destroying other nations is viewed as a provocation.
I think the right question is, “Based on the success of the past two years, how will Russia tweak its policies going forth?”
My guess is that the obvious rules. Syrian lands belong to Syria. Russia has affirmed its support for Syrian territorial integrity. Neither party has earned a reputation for hyperbole. There are locations where ISIS/Acronym have been identified, namely the pocket west of Deir Ezzor, The pocket along the border with Iraq east of the Euphrates, Al-Tanf, spots south of Damascus, Daara, and just across the Euphrates from Deir Ezzor where ISIS et all attacked SAA and government aligned troops as they attempted to cross the Euphrates and approach the Conoco oil fields.
Now that Syria has established their prerogative to shoot down opposition warplanes, and I hope Russia is providing massive ordnance in this regard, I suspect we will see a war of attrition that plays into Syrian strengths and Hegemon’s weaknesses; Rather than asymmetric warfare waged on Syrian and Russian forces, wouldn’t it be a hoot if the good guys waged a guerrilla
operation on Hegemon. And what can Hegemon do, launch airplanes? They can be shot down, and over Syrian territory.
It is not dying. It is regrouping. AI and robots giv them faith in a new version of Eden. Immortality beckons. Gene banks are sufficiently stocked. Now just buying time and moving things and factors around to ensure triggering of Armageddon.
Well, yes, the ‘Armageddon plan’ worked out decades ago (if not centuries) entails a devastating defeat of Russians (and any allies, like Iranians) in Syria. Couching it in ‘biblical’ jargon is for the millions of ‘evangelicals’ morons who must militate for it at all times (till the ‘end times’) and sustain the ‘resolve’ of Americans to fulfill their ‘mission’ of destroying the enemies of (Greater) Israel. Syria must be the new ‘Afghanistan’ for Russia. Kurdistan-Israel 2 must be. America won’t let it go. Possibly they will send the French (and the British) in a new R2P ‘croisade’ (it would be rather a ‘semilunade’) to bring the ‘chemical’ Assad to ‘international justice’.
‘then shall they offer calves upon thine altar’.
We should go back to Libya, it’s the big why we need an answer to.
Hillary Clinton said’ we came, we saw, he died’. Thats a lot of spite from someone raised in the South and living in comfort a long way away.
Something tipped someone over the edge, the Brits went for Gaddafi, even with NATO help they needed the USA to finish the job, they must have known it would erupt in internecine warfare, unless their intelligence is very basic, it’s not like it hasn’t happened everywhere else they have been. It left the EU very short of light crude for diesel, so there was some sacrifice from the EU.
Israel got a hammering in Lebanon, any idea of their invincibility was well and truly vanquished, they still have great intelligence capacity and nukes but not seen as invincible in a traditional scrap.
Something is missing from the story, I keep thinking it’s still about oil, lots of powerful people in the States made it in the oil industry. Why is the USA going so hard out with it’s fracking? Energy isn’t that expensive, why not use other countries reserves first?
China is most dependent on energy imports, he who controls energy controls it all, and that was the house of Saud with its dependence on the USA and Aramco, a company that could be worth 10 trillion in the right market. A China/Russia alliance is going to be very powerful, China is being driven into trade deals with Russia to protect its energy supplies. China wasn’t happy with the old TPP deal.
Today the energy market is more fragmented, taking control is harder and Russia looks likely to be the big player and they won’t be pushed around or influenced like those in the middle east.
Syria is a mix match of cultures but it sort of works. Why was Syria so important, Ok they side with Iran and Iran is a red flag to the States. Still it shouldn’t be enough to warrant this treatment, unless someone thought they could get to Iran via Syria. Either that or the Jewish lobby in the States is more powerful than I thought and it’s all about Israel
The Assads have very close ties to the UK, she was born and went to school there, it’s makes more sense they would be pro British than anything else.
Just me thinking aloud.
“Either that or the Jewish lobby in the States is more powerful than I thought and it’s all about Israel”
That it is.
He got his eye doctor training here and her parents still live here, but it doesn’t necessarily follow that they are particularly pro-British. Pro-Syrian and cosmopolitan is far more likely.
“Something is missing from the story”
Yep, though it is NOT about the oil. It is about the money, and always is, WWI, WWII, on and on. “There has never been a war my sons did not want.” Rothschild Matriarch
Libya HAD to be destroyed because Gaddafi’s African Dinar project would have freed all of Africa from debt slavery… just like the National Socialists freed Germany from the same Bankster Cartel and HAD to be destroyed lest they be an example the rest of the world could follow.
“Why is the USA going so hard out with it’s fracking?” It’s a huge stock play/scam, land and water rights grab as well as a The US is ENERGY Self Sufficient messaging campaign from what I can tell.
As to why Libya, that is easy he was well on his way to freeing Africa from the white man’s yoke with his interest free loans, hospital, schools, infrastructure building projects and the nail in his coffin was his well on its way to fruition Gold currency for all of Africa which would replace the French control of its former colonies currencies. (Take some time and read up on how the French when they gave control back to their African colonies stipulated that they could not develop their own currencies but must use French banks and deposit ALL their revenues into said French banks which then lend them about 20 percent of said revenue at interest without letting them ever access the balance thereby keeping a French foot on their necks and wallets forever).
His gold currency was the reason they killed him and the reason they stole all of his vast gold reserves. Great man, great plan, why he gave up his nuclear weapons we will never know; may he rest in peace.
My only hope, that step two it will be implemented
Cheers for excellent job
With the best regards
Russia made an offer for the Saudi Aramco IPO.
Quote: Escalation in Syria – how far can the Russians be pushed?
Answer : Until Vladimir can get rid of the Kamenev, Zinoviev, Bukharin & last but not least Trotsky & his Satanic cohort ??
Until then ???
Russia’s ‘responses’ to all of this are best delivered by Syrians. Pour in the support!
Whatever happened to the turkey israel water/gas pipeline?
The Russians should encourage the US to go for its mini Kurdistan project and hope they achieve it. The benefits of such a policy far outweigh the costs of trying to prevent it:
1. A mini Kurdistan in the interior of Syria is completely unsustainable in the face of Syrian, Turkish and Iraqi opposition.
2. It will make the perfect quagmire for the US/Israel combo. It will tie up vast AngloZionist resources in establishing and defending it. All for nothing in the medium to long term.
3. It will drive a major wedge between Turkey and the US. This would likely lead to the US being driven from Turkey and Iraq.
5. It will allow Syria to mop up the rest of the country and begin reconstruction. This rebuilding is Syria’s best defense against the AngloZionist imperialists. Syria must build itself into a fortress like Iran if it is to survive.
Sometimes people want something to happen, just out of spite for someone else, without thinking of the consequences for themselves. This is the case with the US Kurdistan project. The US wants to spite Russia and Syria by establishing Kurdistan. But such a state would be landlocked between very hostile neighbors. It has absolutely no viability. At the same time it will destroy the US geopolitical position in the middle east. Kurdistan is poisoned fruit and if the US wants it, why should Russia stand in its way?
By the way, I do not see Trump falling for this trap, I believe he is sincere in his wish to disengage the US from such foreign adventures. But there is not much he can do presently against the neocon establishment. But he has already made real progress, ISIS would not have been defeated and the Syrians won the war, if Trump had not been president. Try and imagine a Hillary presidency, with McCain making Syria policy.
Ngoyo, I did not read your post before I posted mine below and I agree with you. The whole quadrant of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan is a quagmire. The jihadist bloodlust will need to be satisfied. The Israelis need the quagmire to bog down the Jihadist and perhaps Russia. The Turks lured by past Ottoman glory is already bogged down. The Sunnis and Shi’ites must have their final showdown. All these tectonic plates are grinding against one another in the quadrant.
But the US so far only have special forces o the ground. And the Shi’ites, especially the Iranians are eager to settle scores with the ‘Great Satan’.
So I would also say: letting them have their (Kurdish) fiefdom and the resulting need to defend it is likely to make them stay in. In addition, letting that fiefdom have access to the Mediterranean Sea would up the ante for them (and their Kurds) to put more chips in. Not to mention that would upset the Turks to escalate against the US Kurds/fiefdom.
And of course, the Shi’ites would then have their ‘Great Satan’ within range of their rockets, manpads and suicide forces!
This is the nightmare scenario that I do not wish for anybody. But given the present trajectory, this is eventuating strictly as a mathematical projection from the present mix of ambitions in the said Quadrant.
But Russia should not get more involved as she is at present in Syria. Forget about protecting the territory ‘integrity’ of Syria. This is not doable without unacceptable costs to Russia.
Russia should engineer for herself a strategic stalemate with few if any further cost in cargo 200. And with the strategic breather thus achieved, concentrate on developing her economy and replenishing her population. Literally making love not war should be Russia’s best policy forward.
“Step two: saturating Syria with mobile modern short/middle range air defenses” It is the only possible way to go forward (in my humble opinion) this to try avoid risking Russian lives. The best and most advanced weapons should be provided to the Syrian, Hezbollah and Iran militias. Israel will be mad about that but is the only way to put pressure on them to stop their aggression against Syria.
“One objection to this plan would be that two can play this game and that there is nothing preventing the USA from sending even more advanced MANPADs to their “good terrorist” allies”. Whatever Russia does will not prevent the US from providing these weapons, on the contrary they are probably doing that already through their “secret” channels like the CIA, Mossad, etc.
Counter escalation is too logical. Syria is a quagmire. The ‘mud’ weighing down Russia is Daesh and the pro-US ‘moderates’, mainly those Kurds backed by the US. But there more potential ‘mud’ that can suck in the US. Turkey is already bogged down by the Kurds in what can be identified as the beginning of protracted warfare with Turkish cargo 200 being steadily produced for Erdogan. Israel feels threatened and so does the US. But the Israelis are too astute to put boots on the ground in Syria in substantial numbers. Besides Hezbollah has 100,000 rockets pointed like a gun to Israel’s head. But the US? There is now a window of opportunity to suck in the US in a protracted guerrilla war in Syria. Hezbollah, Iranians and the Iraqi Shi’ites would be only too glad to scalp the Yankees in Syria and elsewhere. Now what can be done or rather what can Russia do or don’t do, to suck in the ZioYanks into a Vietnam-like protracted scrap in Syria? If the ZioYanks are sucked into Syria in a big way, the fighting will likely spread to Iraq and Afghanistan. If this happen, it will also doom the already badly managed US economy! I think the solution is staring us in the eyes! Just speculatin’.
As usual, a well thought out and presented essay for an escalation in Syria.
Additional thought: If the Russians are concerned about a “deniability context” in supplying more competent anti-air capacity against US/Israeli air attacks I wonder if announcing a sale of S-300 or better units to Syria would be preferable to letting this escalate gradually with Russian upgrades of what already exists in Syria. If such a purchase was undertaken, these would be Syrian owned missile systems and therefore deniable as aggressive on the part of Russia. After all the Turks are buying them, and the Iranians and the Saudis are also in line for them. But for the Syrians it would be tantamount to them declaring a no fly zone; the air losses to Israel and US planes would be very serious – serious enough to discourage this kind of escalation completely.
P.S. Typos are the pepper in a Saker meal, maybe it doesn’t add much, but given the positives I tolerate them very well.
How far can the Russians be pushed? The important thing is their responses are always the response of an intelligent, self-assured player who understands that power is not to be thrown around like some schoolyard bully. To quote Shakespeare in “Cymbelline”, the game is up. And Uncle Scam knows it.
American contractors can now come under similar pressure, after march election the command and control of the US proxies may be missiled. Even if there are US advisors on site.
I wonder if the Israelis are contemplating a false flag number against the Americans. Remember the USS Liberty attack in 1967. They are capable of serious evil.
What about logistics?
The supply lines for US forces in Syria, Northern Iraq, and Afghanistan from USA/Europe are extended and extremely vulnerable, especially the caravans of trucks moving supplies from the ports to the bases where the troops are stationed.
Supply lines from the Mediterranean to Al Tanf pass through friendly Jordan are going through friendly territory for the most part. But the supply lines to the YPG must pass through ever rebellious Anwar province and Shia-dominant areas in Iraq.
(US/Nato supply lines to Afghanistan are even more tenuous; but that’s not germaine to this commentary.)
Iran has influence among the Shias in Iraq, and there is bound to be Arab populations in Eastern Syria among whom there should be resentment of both the US presence and the prominence of Kurds in their historic tribal areas.
There should be a potent fifth-column movement in these areas attacking/disrupting supply lines and providing intelligence to be used against US forces. Manpads and RPGs are relatively cheap and very portable and would be very effective against helicopters and trucks.
I am sure that, if the shoe were on the other foot, US Special Forces would be hard at work to develop and then to supervise indigenous forces to do this.
Why should Russia trust Turkey? Did it ever occur to anyone that maybe Turkey is part of the partition plan? As long as the Kurds are away from Turkish borders, Erdogan will not have a problem with them being in Syria. What if Turkey’s role is to occupy the area currently occupied by the Kurds? Turkey could still do the US’s bidding from that region while the Kurds conveniently move to another area of interest for the AngloZionists which is far away from Turkish borders.
Perhaps the Kurds will be used to further expand the Golan occupation by Israel. Once Turkey moves the Kurds out of their current region, Turkey will likely stay there under the premise of protecting their borders from the Kurds. In the meantime, the Kurds move to another region on the other side of Syria. If the plan is to split Syria into three parts, the Kurds could just move into another area of the partition plan.
A pretty good summation in my point of view.
I do not think the Russians will escalate the present levels of conflict. It is not worthwhile, hte US presence in the Kurdish held areas will slowly erode, The Kurds and their Arab allies will belatedly come to the conclusion that the US cant deliver. The population has endured 7 years of war, with the only credible sight of ending it has been the Socchi and Astana talks. The US presence in Syria is not militarily sustainable.
What I find more worrisome is the implied French emergence, worrisome from an European point of view. I think the French leadership has lost its wits, not learning the lesson from Libya, the Germans clearly have, and sieze the opportunity to put the French on the international political scene. In a complete reversal to the “official” EU stance on the matter. I am unfortunately not that good a French reader to exactly get a take on what the French peoples opinion on the matter is. But my personal view of the French position is that it is outright stupid and imperialistic and risks fracturing the the future of an emerging non NATO defense force. Maybe the moment is chosen because of the momentary confusion in the German government, or maybe the French still harbors resentment of the German economic might, which the french is hugely dependent on.
No matter, the French, and by extension has got no purpose as participant/s in the Syrian conflict.
Negotiations are the only solution.
You may call it “escalation”. But it’s only escalation in post-war violence, not in war itself, since strategic goals in Syria-Iraq are already firmly behind Russia & Iran. Now it’s important not to stay in Syrian post-war swamp too long and move on to next strategic goals in region. High time to finish Saudis.
A quick thought on this very complex and challenging geopolitical flux in Syria: could the attempt to divide Turkey (rather than Syria) by the US be an unstated objective of Uncle Sam, however absolutely crazy this may sound, with the idea of having a permanent supply of boots on the ground in the form of our Kurdish brothers there?
Could it be that the Russians realised such an objective by the US and started working against it alongside the Turks?
A penny for your thoughts on this one.
“the US-Turkish relationship is so bad and so one-sided…” In fact, U.S. quietly supports Turkey, including their upcoming invasion of Greece.
Punch me, punch you! This is how the world works. All other explanations aside, if you get punched and fail to hit back, expect many additional punches until you do!!
Does this give Russia the legal authority to use any means to get usa out of Syria especially usa occupied land east of Euphrates?????
@JJ. Yes. Which world court is competent to try this case?
Lavrov saying yesterday usa must leave al tanf cos of refugees being denied humanitarian aid and terrorists being harboured and west must decide to totally disown al nusrah…..sounds like the court of the russian conscience and morality is in session…….
They can be pushed a long way. The problem for the Russians and the world is that Trump has managed to arrange a more or less unified foreign policy aligned under the hawks in the Pentagon and the Imperial Masters in the CIA. Trump had no choice–either agree to continue and expand the Empire or be booted out of office one way or the other. The weakness of the USA documented on your site may no longer be the case. I’ve been one to broadcast that disunity for a long time. As I read between the lines that division is no longer in place. Major factions have agreed that the U.S. was in danger of fragmenting and they agreed to come together under the only ideology that had any deep attachement and that is classic neoconservativism. Their idea is that, without a cohesive common project, US society cannot hold together and will degenerate into tribalism, localism, and hedonism. I have never seen a more united power-elite in my lifetime that extends from the National Security State to the entertainment media. Russia is that uniting force in the USA which will give purpose to the country. Now, it is a question of how long will this newfound unity effect the population? Will they enthusiastically fall in line as they have in the past (after 9/11 and during the early part of the Cold War)? Right now, it appears it will as the “liberals” are have run sharply to the right and are now further right than the conservatives at least in military and foreign policy. Sadly, there is little dissent at present from our national policy of war forever and everywhere with Russia as the chief threat.
The Syrian situation is going to be very rough on Russia. The U.S. can now throw unlimited money at the Turks, the Jihadis, to harass the Syrian government. Russia will have to hunker down and keep as quiet as possible to see how long this alliance within Washington will last.
Anti-aircraft systems may help but will not seriously alter the situation on the ground which will be a continual war until forever as in Afghanistan.
For now, Russia has to hunker down and accept reality. Putin knows this and he will keep a low profile from now on until he sees some cracks in the current alliances against him.
Update from analyst Canthama on Syrper: “4 days of air attacks (last count was 73 air strikes) in many areas through out East Ghouta. Artillery shelling, GRADS and Tochka missiles being used also, in a pin point attacks.
As said yesterday, scouts and storm troopers already taking positions deep in enemy territory and coordinating air strikes and artillery, several direct hits yesterday and today, mostly on weapons depots and terrorists large gatherings.
It is important to mention that there are several, maybe on the a hundred SAA soldiers as sleeper cells in East Ghouta. The same happened in Eastern Aleppo, these fellows will be vital to coordinate civilians to flee the area attacked and/or to give intel on terrorist leaders locations (recall when Alloush+10s of terrorists received a direct hit on Christmas day?).
Shelling and air strikes continue, RuAF will be very active in East Ghouta, its airplanes and resupplies are getting all ready, SAAF will be very present with Su22 and many choppers as well. The massive build up of troops continues, more large forces arriving in the area, recently few thousands of tribal forces arrived, the Lions from Raqqa and Deir Ez Zor Provinces led by Sheikh Turki Al Bouhamad, these are no rookies, battle experienced in eastern Aleppo, Khanaser, Southern Raqqa and Deir ez Zour campaigns. They work well with the Tiger Forces.
…. This offensive will resemble Eastern/southern Aleppo campaign with pressure coming from multiple directions, the key difference is the amount of terrorists, it is estimate in East Ghouta to host 10-15,000 terrorists while Eastern Aleppo had some 3-5,000 terrorists.
Weather is good in East Ghouta today Feb20 and will remain like that tomorrow, making it a good day to start the ground offensive with clear skies for CAS. Good hunt heroes”
How hard would it be to blitz and retake the Golan Heights? Israel could not possible claim an invasion of sovereign territory. Some thing big has to be done to get the American’s attention that their escalating trouble making will not be tolerated. Otherwise Russia will continue to look weaker with each action. The Americans are calling the Russian bluff. It really is time to ante up or fold and cut the loses that will surely follow. Strategically Syria is either where the buck stops or the dominoes begin to topple.
The Zionist Oded Yinon Plan confirms the Sakers conclusion regarding ‘a partial “reconquista” of Syria’ is on its way. Turkey will get its neo Ottoman share, Israel it share, the renamed ISIS south east of Eufrat, The Allawites and friends will probably keep some, Jordan and S.Arabia for sure might feel expansionist.
Hence Turkey “cares what happens to Syria”. One should also keep in mind that the US coup against Erdogan could have been staged to create new – fake – power relations among various regional players + NATO countries. They aim for Armageddon.
Why? The survival of the ancient elites depend on it. Sadly many analysis lack the spiritual dimension playing out as geopolitics, and as long one neglects the spiritual one is caught up in causation and will miss a cornerstone in the End Game of the global elites – WWIII.
mod-to note: correction applied
Could you say a bit more please?
In short, a logical and water tight argument is, for X and Y to do A and B, XYAB are existentially necessary.
If there are actors on the scene that (to make it easy) play according to the Abrahamic scriptures (Torah, Talmud, New Testament, Koran, Book of Mormon) as a part of “Team 200 Fallen Lizards” (i.e. X and Y), and they are out to fulfill the Book of Revelation and its equivalent in the Koran (i.e. A and B), then what ever you or I think does not matter. You and I are not existentially necessary for X Y to do A B.
It is amazing that believers in the (Abrahamic) Creator (JHVH) often do not reflect upon that the “Fallen” have followers of their own. As if objectivity, the fact that A B does X Y, was hanging upon the subjective believe of Harry, Dick and Tom.
As for proof, you need to spend 100h on exopolitics. Oogle Oded Yinon Plan and Ketuboth 11b in the Babylonian Talmud. Good info here from a Kabbalist temple president:
Most informative as always. But to offer an answer to the question “how far can the Russians be pushed?”. I believe that on some level, the Kremlin really and truly feels that the ONLY thing (and I stress the word “ONLY”) stopping WW3, is them. If that is correct, than that is one hell of a weight on their shoulders. I have no idea just how I would react if in that position and feeling that way.
Thank you for everything
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