by Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck is now getting very cold feet because the strategy of madly firehosing the excellent oil & gas sourcing that Europe had with Russia until recently to his personal dismay is now fully defeating both the EU´s purpose and Germany´s needs. Ref #1 https://www.rt.com/business/557729-gas-shortage-industry-halt-germany/
So the plan seems to be to steal yet more per Ref #2 https://www.rt.com/business/557731-germany-seeking-nationalize-nord-stream2/
Still, Robert Habeck is realizing that — no matter how thirsty — nobody can ever drink water from a firehose, not even Germans, let alone Europeans. And don´t you dare to try it. If you did, chances are you´d end up with dark-purple lips and ice-cold water pressing deeply inside your sinus cavities, probably knocked-down, blood-shot eyes popping and hurting beyond belief, and possible random injuries elsewhere. Police forces worldwide know all about this so they invented the water-cannon to rapidly disperse confronting defiant crowds. Of course, you could not ever drink from a firehose water jet, but the impact could have you hospitalized. A bit late, Habeck now foresees all of this, and beyond. And it clearly does not end well, not for Germany, nor for Europe either, and winter is coming. Unless Herr Habeck were a member not of the German Green Party but rather of the European War Party, a truly losing proposition.
Firehoses many times are also difficult to hold steady even by brutish strong hands and arms of young, well-trained, heavy-booted firemen. Obviously enough, thirst can only be satisfied by drinking one sip at a time no matter how thirsty you might be, most preferably from a cup or glass. And, of course, tremendous thirst cannot be quenched with tremendous amounts of water dispensed from a high pressure firehose jet. Unfortunately, the “firehose” analogies #1 + #2 presented herein are exactly what Robert Habeck is doing per the EU-approved ban on Russian oil by December 2022. Meanwhile, as explained below, China and India instead take full advantage of the nicely discounted price by “sipping” down Russian crude oil gradually and – per the analogy — from an imaginary glass, not a firehose water jet.
Apparently, both of these “firehose strategies” #1 and #2 do not show up on the radar screen of neither European engineers, nor supposed chemical ´experts´, or trade associations, scientific societies, think tanks and/or labor unions. Quite on the contrary, they and many others have remained solemnly silent just watching how a few unelected and improvised groupie politicians that know jack about technical requirements gain political traction and MSM coverage for their foolish ´firehose approach´ as if it were doable and convenient for the best interests of Europeans. But by banning Russia they´ll never quench the EU´s enormous thirst for crude oil, processed and refined products thereof, and natural gas. Rather they will bring the European energy sourcing matrix down on its knees, something which has finally dawned in the mind of Herr Habeck and that by now is most probably already shared by the average European.
firehose #1 per oil
This most self-destructive nonsensical idea consists in simultaneously running throughout the key upstream refinery and petrochemical sector many dozens (if not hundreds) of still undefined and truly challenging parallel reconversion projects of different sorts – all tightly-packed within the same timeframe — requiring currently non-existing resources of different types ( HR + IT hard/soft/firmware + not-yet-designed equipment plus installation and commissioning thereof, etc. etc. etc., etc., etc. ) throughout the European continent and all of them with an identical 6-month deadline for execution and delivery. This most expensive idea starts by banning imported, perfect-from-every-sense-except-politics Russian oil at half the price and without any pay-back cost as nothing other than already existing resources are required. Only a bunch of fools would thus negatively affect the livelihoods of 800 million of their own people that will necessarily suffer the irreversible consequences of this mis-management of their self-made crisis. By December 2022 in 6 short months all that Europeans will have is freezing cold and a horrible, un-rewindable blowback in their hands.
The current course of action officially approved by the EU necessarily calls for the 2022 execution of hundreds of projects related to the Russian oil ban which would supposedly allow for non-Russian oil imports refinement and processing in Europe. Imagine this “firehose” approach trying to adapt all refineries, processing plants, ports, docks, pipelines, logistics infrastructure, etc., etc. to a new mix of yet unknown oils to replace the Russian Urals blend which would therefore require yet unknown modifications and corresponding fine tuning. This impossible re-vamping and retrofitting of absolutely everything will consume humongous amounts of euros, human resources, expertise, trials & errors, risk and lots of hard work and lots and lots of time. The Schwedt refinery alone will require 11 major projects at the very least per Ref.#21 below. All in all, we are talking hundreds of billions of euros that Europe does not have — and should not print — with 40-50 years payback long after (supposedly) fossil fuels have been phased out of the EU and no bank willing to finance the madness. So far nothing has been announced, no feasibility studies, no bid forms issued or trans-European call for bids, no joint-ventures, no engineering firms, plans or specs, no guidelines, no oil vendors, bidding documents, no schedules, no consultants or commissions, no bid opening and contract award dates: plain nothing.
China & India
Readers frequently ask how is it that China and India are readily importing and successfully processing Russian oils while European refineries would supposedly have tremendous trouble processing other “good” oils (ha!). Some readers go far beyond and assure other fellow posters without batting an eyelash that necessarily, of course, if China and India can successfully process and refine Russian oils well obviously enough Europe can readily and easily do the same with yet unknown oil blends from yet unknown vendors blah blah yadda yadda. Well, the short answer is a flat “NO”, the slightly longer answer is “you better know what you are saying and doing” and the longest answer I dare to publish is that “history will not be kind to anyone directly or indirectly involved in what you are saying or proposing”. The more elaborate answer includes that China and India since years ago have already carefully designed, tested, vetted, certified, and commissioned the required modifications for processing Russian Urals blend. But neither China nor India has been stupid and ignorant enough to adopt the European nonsensical and ruinous ´nuclear option´ of the firehose flood-everything-out strategy. First they went slow on solid footing, and then only later speeded-up with their experience on firm ground and with the advantage of the constant Russian Urals that Europe doesn´t have any more
3 differences 3
There are 3 main differences between China & India and the European firehose approach (more on that later). The No. 1 difference is that China & India had plenty of time to slowly study and carefully modify only a limited handful of refineries. So both had many years for the specific modification of only very few refineries later to be easily carbon-copied per the always constant Russian Urals blend feedstock. So China & India fine tuned their processes always responding to a single homogenous constant excellent Russian Urals blend, while Europe does not yet even have the faintest idea of what in glorious cold-freezing hell it has to fine-tune to… or even if it will ever find any blend to fine-tune for … so that its refineries render humongous amounts only of diesel fuel, not anything else, which matters a lot. Difference No. 3 is that Europe will not find a single oil mix to substitute for Russia´s Urals blend feedstock and will end up having to import several variable yet unknown mixes sourced from yet unknown vendors, if any. Very messy.
What both China and India did years ago is to import small amounts of Russia´s Urals blend and comfortably tuned up a small handfull of refineries to process it at a “small scale” like drinking from a glass of water one sip at a time. Now that Russia is offering its Urals blend at a great discount very close to 30%, both China and India are ramping up their purchases while also further enlarging their refining capacity so as to process ever growing amounts of excellent, now super-cheap, abundant, homogenous Russian Urals blend. Anyone, such as Europe, attempting instead a “firehose” strategy with unknown blends will fail miserably as explained to death and in depth in the 21 references linked below. In view of the above, China & India and others too will most probably build brand new refineries ad hoc from scratch only to process Russian Urals blend feedstocks just like Europe was doing a short while ago before going bananas. And once that pipelines from Russia to Asia are concluded in 3 years time the Western world will play second fiddle.
Ref #3 http://www.rt.com/business/557463-russia-china-top-oil-supplier/
Ref #4 http://www.rt.com/business/557403-india-increase-russian-oil/
Ref #5 http://www.rt.com/business/557091-india-russia-import-oil/
Ref #6 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Overtakes-Saudi-Arabia-As-Chinas-Top-Oil-Supplier.html
One way to begin to understand the problem is agreeing and accepting that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden made a historical bad joke, by saying “ The EU will make sure to phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion to allow us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes minimizing the impact on global markets”. Nope, you can´t do that in 6 months Ursula, if ever. So if you accept that´d be absolutely impossible then you are on the right track to understand the rest. Otherwise you´d be just playing games running around in circles. Hint: it´d be like trying to change the engine oil while cruising at 150 km/hr on a German autobahn. Of course, you can stop the car and change the oil, but in this case it would mean shutting down Europe for months. You cannot do that, can you ?
By any standards, there are definitely not enough adequate oil blends around to come close to satisfying European refinery requirements comparable to homogenous continuous over-abundant constant Russian high-quality Urals which the EU now has decided to ban. And also please accept once and for all that a specific oil blend is not just “any oil blend” to be plugged & played anywhere anytime. Oil blends are not fungible. A very specific refinery or processing plant tune-up needs to be specifically matched with an always constant high-quality homogenous oil blend in large enough quantities and for a given desired output such as diesel fuel, or whatever. No “open architecture” is possible here, that´s just for IT nerds, not for refineries. And definetly there are no vendors all lined up happily willing and able to sell you their oil blend in unlimited quantities already fully adapted to whatever plant you may have ´as-is´ for whichever desired production output you may need delivered just-in-time on-demand and only when you need it. No. that´s not the case or anywhere close. Europe now may have Angola oil (maybe) for what it might be worth, but it needs 30 additional Angolas nowhere to be found under current circumstances. Suez is a tremendous choke-point.
Ref #7 https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-new-eu-sanctions-on-russia-will-shake-up-global-energy-trade
Ref #8 https://www.saferack.com/glossary/tanker/
In a nutshell, EU politicians have officially approved a forcefull mandate whereby all of Europe will have to execute in 6 short months what India and China would not dare doing in less than 10 (ten) years. That is 20 times more time. When the rubber meets the road, Europeans will realize that their political class are just a bunch of ignorant fools.
Furthermore, China & India had the enormous advantage of having to fine-tune and modify their plants for a single well-known, constant, homogenous, reliable, fully vetted Russian Urals blend… while Europe does (a) not have anywhere near that possibility and (b) does not even know what blends it will be able to find in large enough quantities and (c) it is now realizing that it will not ever be a single oil mix. So, eventually and if lucky enough (for how long ?) Europe will have to fine-tune its refineries and processing plants quite differently (not carbon copied as China & India) depending on what Europe happens to source and procure with the minimum corresponding performance and delivery guarantees. And in view of possible discontinuous supply of the right quality feedstocks, European refineries may very well find themselves back in square one and having to re-do everything all over. Refining and chemical processing are a key upstream sector, highly capital-intensive, thick skin required yet delicate & tricky, and also a very ugly business.
Refineries are very closely matched and mated with subtle calibration to a very specific and foreseeable feedstock. Changing such feedstock requires lots of time, effort, money, dedicated facilities, experimentation, mistakes, trial & error, specific expertise, and risk. Substituting the constant quality and humongous quantity of Russian oils in only 6 months has never been conceived yet alone attempted. Now Europe needs a substitute feedstock it can´t yet know which could it possibly be, if any. This will require cross-border negotiations and coordination,funding, major cross-industry interferences, new costs and surprises from yet unknown trade and other business partners, new procedures, etc. And 95% completion is not enough, only 100% is satisfactory. Everybody and his sister would now in Europe be modifying the same things at the same time with the same resources and the same deadline. Exactly who will refine & process crude oil in the meantime ? No fuels in Europe until European refineries refine something no ?
Ref #9 https://www.ifo.de/en/node/69417
Adapting any EU refinery to new types of oils requires detailed laboratory knowledge of the new blend with constant composition and formal guarantees for its continuous delivery for decades, convoluted & lengthy contracts and procurement processes, extremely detailed engineering plans, manufacturing of parts, shipping, installation, testing, commissioning, optimization, permitting etc. etc. etc. The EU today has highly sensitive plants finely tuned and used to Russian high quality oil during decades. One single ‘bad fuel’ refinery batch would produce never ending down/time cascading impact, damages, repairs, claims, accidents with possible injuries, non-compliance and altered delivery schedules, liabilities everywhere. It´s the joint “oil feedstock – refinery – desired output” sequence to be resolved.
All EU refineries will need modification and tune-up of new feedstock lines and infrastructure, atmospheric distillation facilities, vacuum distillation systems, cat-crack units, visbreaking facilities, alkylation units, catalytic reformers, isomerisation units, ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) facilities, etc. Plus probably new storage facilities + handling equipment to substitute the Druzhba pipeline now shut-down by December 2022. Plus all sorts of sensors, software & firmware modifications or possible purchases of new stuff which will require personnel and third party vendors all over.
firehose #2 per gas
As if all of the above were not enough, Herr Habeck is now getting Europe ready for a firehose #2 project. Namely the DE-conversion from natural gas and the RE-conversion into dirty coal proposed by a member of the Green Party !!!!
You can´t make this stuff up, trust me that imagination cannot compete with European reality. So, the back-to-coal ´solution´ proposed is (a) very dirty against Europe´s Green Plan plus other climate pledges and regulations (b) ultra expensive (c) a major upheaval throughout Europe which would not make it for this coming winter soon knocking on the European doors, and probably not even for next winter 2024 at least throughout all of Europe… or even in 2025.
This completely separate – yet overlapping – set of major madhouse back-to-coal projects also imply enormous risk and major modifications and tight schedules all around, bids, bidders, contract oversight, etc. etc.etc for which nobody is prepared for nor regulators, nor vendors, nor consultants or engineering firms, nor end users, nor households or the industry at large. So this DE-conversion from natural gas and subsequent RE-conversion into coal simultaneous with the “firehose strategy #1” for Russian oil substitution means enormous additional time and ultra-high costs, technical limitations, interrupted services and production, upheaval everywhere, labor union conflicts, discomfort, civil works, electromechanical contracts, specialized labor, expertise, etc. etc. – nobody would be able to walk down the street for groceries or catching the subway — while all of this is done simultaneously throughout Europe ? This is not fiction…
Ref #10 https://www.rt.com/business/557599-europe-russian-gas-cut/
Ref #11 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/21/ukraine-war-europe-turns-to-coal-as-russia-squeezes-gas-supplies.html
Ref #12 https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220620-dutch-join-germany-austria-in-reverting-to-coal
Ref #13 https://www.rt.com/business/557503-austria-coal-green-energy/
Ref #14 https://www.rt.com/business/557571-czech-republic-gas-energy/
In sum, Herr Habeck and EU politicians have unnecessarily set Europe up for hundreds of overlapping, cross-borders, gargantuan projects impossible to fulfill simultaneously, with absurd sequencing and scheduling coordination, plus peremptory timing limitations and deadlines, with countless synchronized engineering specialties and very risky, highly demanding logistics, plus overwhelming legal, political, and environmental aspects. For decades European refineries have streamlined supplies and specifically matched their processing capabilities for the Russian Urals blend in order to produce a very specific set of final products amongst which diesel fuel is paramount. So now European refineries and processing plants cannot just suddenly switch to whatever oil blends are found elsewhere without the complete set of features that the Urals blend has..Accordingly, this glorious mis-management has the whole EU economy at risk
Europe could also suffer the pain of potentially non-performing rushed and poorly designed modifications made to ports and logistics infrastructures, or while retrofitting and revamping its refineries and chemical processing plants. Furthermore, Europe will spend a fortune it cannot afford while running the certain, serious risk of a failed troublefull reconversion ending up with many half-finished facilities that will not be anywhere ready on time, or ever. And as 95% compliance is not enough to produce a single drop of a processed product (diesel or whatever) this means that under current circumstances and 2022 established deadlines until Europe has 100% adequately modified and successfully retrofitted everything up and running for feedstocks it does not yet have or know about… Europe really has nothing. Additionally, the human resource challenge related to all of the above is insurmountable and probably un-compliable.
Hungary has publically exposed the problem: “the EU has ‘no solution’ to fix damage from Russian oil ban”. Mass migrations very soon are in the cards, including large cities of Western Europe. Herr Habeck already knows this. Skeptics are rapidly hiding because these energy supply problems have become obvious throughout Europe already.
And you just can´t have 35% of the plants processing and/or running with “good” Russian oil still fed by the Druzbha pipeline till December while the remaining 65% run on “bad” unknown non-Russian seaborne oil. You can´t do that.
Ref # 15 https://www.rt.com/news/555297-hungary-eu-no-solution/
Ref # 16 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Record-High-Diesel-Prices-Will-Ripple-Across-The-Economy.html
By the way, Russia today sells LESS oil & gas but earns MORE revenue than last year. Please see Ref # 25 below.
Hereafter a ´mano-a-mano´ comparison between the European “firehose strategy” vs. China & India´s “glass of water”
Analysis is limited to firehose #1 to be applied for the (supposed) EU project regarding substitution of Russian oils.
pre-feasibility studies + feasibility studies + start date + authority + deadline + affected domain + relative project size +
reservoirs + oil quality + oil quantity + human resources
bidding process + contracts + investments + financing + sourcing + vendor certification + tankers certification + oil certification + lab tests + homologation + compliance + price + guarantees
docks + handling equipment + loading + ports + pipelines + seaborne delivery
refinability + refineries
European “firehose” = hundreds of studies urgently needed yesterday, NONE possibly yet done, not yet announced.
China + India = those required were done years ago, many more are currently in progress
European “firehose” = hundreds of studies urgently needed yesterday, NONE done, nor announced, nor scheduled
China + India = many approved, up and running, yet more are currently in progress
European “firehose” = June 2022
China + India = many years ago, exact date unknown, preparations since ever, plenty of time for everything.
European “firehose” = the EU system has overlapping bureaucratic jurisdictions whereby decisions are made by 27 unanimous votes while limiting or even opposing decisions are later taken by individual member countries.
China + India = everything under the command of a single country authority in charge.
European “firehose” = 6 months (!!!!!) imminently foolish
China + India = open, gradual, through years, plenty of time left, meanwhile lots of work in progress
European “firehose” = 100s of projects, ports, docks, refineries, processing plants, pipelines, logistics, infrastructure
China + India = already done years ago for today´s needs, meaning 0 (zero) affected domain
relative project size
European “firehose” = enormously large, diverse, incommensurate, complex, cross-border, zero management skills.
China + India = carbon-copy expansion of vetted modifications with work in progress for far larger shipments
European “firehose” = unknown, experimental mix from occasional “beach-front bazaar” variable vendors.
China + India = Russian Urals blend, enormous, reliable geologically & physico-chemically stable reservoirs
European “firehose” = fully unknown, wishy-washy-iffy, does not even exist, experimental, does not allow any planning of anything yet. A lower-rate or not constant & homogenous oil quality means poor performance and operational risks with possible serious breakdown troubles beyond repair plus possible injuries plus down-time will necessarily require plant process modifications and other engineering & logistics nightmares already described in many references below.
China + India = Russian Urals blend, decades-proven, fully vetted, constant, well-known 100% reliable, high quality homogenous blend, low sulfur, light- intermediate API gravity. Easy to process and/or refine. All-around compliance, special mixture of heavy sour oil from the Ural and Volga region mixed with light API oil of Western Siberia per 9.8 Nelson Complexity index with medium 31.7 API gravity sour with about 1.35% sulfur content.
Matching the Russian Urals oil grade is theoretically ´possible´ by blending high-quality oils from different sources if available from reliable vendors in large enough quantities. BUT maintaining the blend specs and volumetric flow requirements to meet refinery capacity/specs is very difficult. Beware: the Urals blend allows for a very constant Nelson Complexity Index of 9.8 to guarantee refined excellence for a range of products including petrol (gasoline) diesel, aviation turbine fuel, LPG, extra light heating oil, heavy fuel oil, bitumen, benzene, toluene, xylene, and sulfur.
European “firehose” = fully unknown, weakest point no matter what its variable “quality” may get to be. It´d also have to be an “incremental” volume beyond current production because of (a) potential growth in European demand and (b) because no vendor will ever leave traditional customers abandoned high & dry just because the EU has now gone bonkers. Furthermore, these contracts could might all turn out being short-term ephemeral un-sustainable ´purchases of convenience´ without continuity to be dropped the instant the EU´s “ban Russia´s oil” stops dead in its tracks for plenty of good reasons. Not enough quantity means degraded European livelihoods and failing economy, with shut down plants and refineries affecting transportation, heating, hospitals & schools, military, government, business, etc.
In order to substitute Russian oils, other oil-exporting vendor countries will have to either (a) suddenly increase their production (?) and how would they do that exactly (??) … or (b) disregard their traditional clients … and suddenly cut them off high and dry to go out to sell to Europe. In that case, where would their traditional clients find an exporter to buy the right quality oil from? The world oil market is one and the same and Russia inputs at least 15% of such.
China + India = Russian Urals blend, on-demand continuous non-stop unlimited delivery, allows planning everything.
HR Human Resources
European “firehose” = probably the weakest link of all with tons of people missing with yet-to-be-defined job descriptions, yet to be interviewed, hired, trained, teams put together, deployed, etc. etc. Current operational and maintenance + staff & field personnel would probably demand being switched to other jobs… or will drag their feet… or would simply resign thus necessarily compounding the problem to unchartered depths. New, young, inexperienced hands do not help under these circumstances. New managers and all sorts of office & field personnel from logistics to IT contractors, welders, etc. will not even be hired by December 2022
China + India = 100% contracted and working normally with operational personnel, field hands, staff & management
European “firehose” = not started yet, no bid forms issued nor trans-European call for bids, no joint-ventures, no engineering firms, plans or specs, or guidelines, no bidding documents, no tentative schedules, no consultants, no commissions or committees, no bid opening and contract award dates. No nothing.
China + India = normal operational checks, buyer-seller relationship well established, future procurement wide open.
European “firehose” = supposedly by June 2022 impossible to comply with. Real date unknown, possibly by 2023
China + India = already awarded and entered into, currently under execution, with buyer / seller satisfaction
European “firehose” = needs to invest hundreds of billions of euros that Europe does not have and should not print
China + India = already done years ago, now up and running, could expand by carbon copying.
European “firehose” = unfathomable mystery, 40-50 years payback long after fossil fuels are phased out of the EU.
Many dozens of billions of euros need to be financed for these projects. Banks agree ? Refineries and pipelines have a 40-50 year service life. Nobody in their right mind is going to finance with multi-decade payback when per EU regulations the investment will be dead in 10 years.
China + India = not required yet, comes out of national budget already approved. Only needed for new projects.
European “firehose” = fully unknown, does not even exist, experimental, does not allow any planning of anything yet.
China + India = excellent Russian Urals blend, decades-proven, fully vetted, constant, well-known 100% reliable.
European “firehose” = vendor(s) do not exist, probably a variable group of partial variable mix vendors with a “beach-front bazaar” structure, uncoordinated and even enemies of each other.
China + India = already done, decades-proven, fully vetted, constant, well-known 100% reliable, no risk,
European “firehose” = do not yet exist, if ever found available as needed both in type and size.
China + India = done, up and running.
European “firehose” = does not yet exist
China + India = done, up and running
European “firehose” = no vendors, no oil feedstocks, no lab tests of anything
China + India = done years ago per current requirements,regular checks into the future
European “firehose” = cannot yet exist
China + India = done
European “firehose” = unknown, all compliance pending, approval takes years with plenty of EU bureaucratic requirements starting with ISO 9001 (manufacturing) + ISO 14000 (environmental) + ISO 15000 (laboratory analysis quality) approval of which starts only after full design and complete specifications are satisfactorily concluded and internally approved for submission to EU regulators. EU´s Green Plan spirit and wording must be complied with, same as other EU Common Policies, climate pledges, and regulations in force. Environmental impact assessments have to be completed with specific procedures, submitted, and approved. Labor union issues also pending
China + India = already 100% compliant, up and running.
European “firehose” = unknown, definitely FAR more expensive, with pay-back amortization of the many huge investments / modifications / reforms made plus terrific freight, logistics, and final delivery costs disrupting the European and the world economy with inflation beyond imagination.
China + India = At least 30-35% cheaper than market price and without any pay-back amortization of the many huge investments / modifications / reforms required by the European “firehose”.
European “firehose” = no project just wishful thinking, no sourcing, no vendor, does not yet apply
China + India = traditional Urals with 50-year guarantee of homogenous blend ( +/- ) 15% volume
European “firehose” = NO vendor(s) yet, many needed with large deliveries, no docks yet, some will be problematic
China + India = small deliveries. No dock improvements required yet. Pre-feasibility studies underway for enlargement
European “firehose” = NO vendor(s) yet, many needed with large deliveries, no handling equipment anywhere yet.
China + India = small deliveries. No handling equipment modifications yet. Pre-feasibility studies underway.
loading & unloading
European “firehose” = NO vendor(s) yet, many needed with large deliveries, no loading experience anywhere yet.
China + India = small deliveries. No modifications required yet. Pre-feasibility studies underway for larger volumes.
European “firehose” = NO vendor(s) yet, many needed with large deliveries, no ports yet, some will be problematic
China + India = small deliveries. No port modifications required yet. Pre-feasibility studies underway.
European “firehose” = No new ones foreseen only seaborne delivery . Still, the all-important Schwedt refinery in Germany does need revamping of the Rostock to Schwedt 60-year-old Soviet-era 200 km. pipeline. Full upgrade and retro-fitting required. Not started yet nor plans announced. Partially buried heavy structure built with obsolete materials and technology commissioned in 1963 many times patched-up and most probably unable to be “pig”- inspected properly or meaningfully, let alone be upgraded as needed. Lots of skeletons hanging inside many closets after several decades, now to be opened. Other inter-European transfer pipelines may also need repair and upgrade.
China + India = pre-feasibility & feasibility studies concluded, major pipelines being designed or under construction.
European “firehose” = no tankers yet contracted, possible shipping lanes issues, piracy, weather, lack of tankers, vessel size limitations, warfare, labor conflicts both on board and/or on the docks /berths, draft issues, not enough water depth for Suezmax oil tanker channels and ports. Suez is also a tremendous choke-point limitation not allowing for much needed VLCCs or Very Large Crude Carriers – tankers with 2-million-barrel capacity, only allows Aframax.
China + India = already under way, sea lanes well-known, no operational problems.
European “firehose” = fully unknown, risky, requires carefull constant testing of all-around refinery modifications adapting internal processes to new blends required to remain constant for at least 40 preferably 50 years. No data possible yet and lots of work to be done. Refinement process unknown re final distillates quantities and qualities.
China & India = efficient, reliable with excellent guaranteed performance for decades per Nelson Complexity Index of 9.8 allowing to refine with excellence a range of products including petrol (gasoline) diesel, aviation turbine fuel, LPG, extra light heating oil, heavy fuel oil, bitumen, benzene, toluene, xylene and sulfur, mostly sold to Europe and the US.
European “firehose” = modifications have not yet been bidded, nor announcements made.
China & India = modification finished years ago, up and running
Ref #17 http://thesaker.is/no-fuels-for-europe/
Ref #18 http://thesaker.is/pitchforks-soon-in-europe/
Ref #19 http://thesaker.is/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/
Ref #20 http://thesaker.is/why-russias-oil-ban-is-impossible/
Ref #21 http://thesaker.is/germans-schwedt-hard-for-russian-oil/
Ref #22 http://thesaker.is/dear-ursula-you-are-dead-wrong/
Ref #23 http://thesaker.is/europe-now-cheats-or-suffers/
Ref #24 http://thesaker.is/for-europe-from-russia-with-love/
Ref #25 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Revenues-From-Gas-Still-High-Despite-Supply-Cuts-To-Europe.html
One has to remember that Nuland said
“F**K the EU”
Indeed she did. The USA already knows it’s lost Europe and that inevitably Europe will turn to Russia. The USA are using their EU vassals to self destruct by implementing a scorched earth strategy which will take years, if not decades, to recover from. 100’s of 1000’s could die this coming winter as a result and a vacuum of empty properties can be filled by new comers. What will constitute a “European” in future is anyone’s guess.
My question is, can China and India resell Russian oil to Europe and make a hefty profit? Can Algeria be an alternative to gas for Europe?
Oscar de Caracas, muchas gracias por tus aportes. La respuesta a tu primera pregunta es un rotundo “desde ya que sííííí” — al menos por el momento — tanto que de hecho India hoy le re-vende a EE.UU. el mismo petróleo crudo ruso pero con altísimo valor agregado al destilarlo a diesel y les vende el diesel fuel. China por su parte no le re-vende a nadie porque tiene un altísimo consumo interno. Algeria podría venderle “algo” de gas a Europa (poco) pero solo si tuviese espacio en gasoducto y solo para el sur de España. Europa no tiene terminales de des-licuación de gas licuado. Cordialmente Jorge
Oscar from Caracas thank you so much for your input. The answer to your first question is a very loud “YES” — at least for the time being — so much so that as a matter of fact India today re-sells the very same Russian oil to the US but rather with a very high value added in the form of distilled diesel fuel. China does not re-sell anything because its internal market is huge. Algeria may sell “some” little nat-gas to Europe if it had open volume space available in pipeline and only to Southern Spain. Europe does not have any LNG terminals. Cordially Jorge
Have you read the article? I mean gotten a clue?
I still cannot get my head around the idea that European leaders are willing to walk down this road to nowhere. What is it I am not seeing? Surely they cannot be so shortsighted, so obviously stupid.
Or can they? To date European energy needs are being addressed by 1) shutting down working nuclear power plants, 2) banning the import of Russian hydrocarbons to which their energy infrastructure is uniquely tuned, and 3) reintroducing not just coal but dirty brown coal.
A quote from the beginning of WWI was that the lamps are going out across Europe – or something like that. It’s taken a century, but if this keeps up it may finally happen.
In truth, I do not think it will come to this. I think rather that somehow the Europeans will find a way to lie, to cheat, to steal. They will find a way to keep the lamps burning.
And with apologies for getting personal here, but that ghastly von der Leyen really does want throwing under some passing bus.
‘I still cannot get my head around the idea that European leaders are willing to walk down this road to nowhere. What is it I am not seeing? Surely they cannot be so shortsighted, so obviously stupid.’ Nah, they are that stupid. Surely they will lie, they do it already, buying via middlemen the oil, gas and coal from Russia, the US and the EU states are doing that since a couple of weeks, even at the start of the SMO. But they are to stupid to understand, that even discussing sanctions at the beginning of the conflict did send the commodity prices sky high.
Well I am sure a lot of their counselors in the Ministries and in the Industry told them that it was not smart to discuss sanctions the whole time, so they stopped a while, but hey, they have to Twitter, to spout nonsense into ‘Journalist’ Microphones, so repeat the mantra ‘Lets stop the evil Satan Putin!’, yeah right. I am living in Germany, and those buffoons did stop nuclear power plants without a plan how to replace the energy with water pump plants, more solar energy, the only thing they came up with, was to build even more of those ridiculous windmills which are now almost everywhere in Germany. They should have had a plan how to build thousands of pumped-storage power station, but they didn’t because they don’t need to.
The german media is a disgrace for every human being with a brain, they get about 10-20 billion of Euros every year. So yeah, thats that, Germany is toast, but I stopped being angry about it, now I can just laugh about the stupidity of those green morons…
“They get about 10-20 billion of Euros every year.” – A gift from who? why? Are you sure?
Well, the diesel scandal happened because impossible deadlines were set by a government that had no real understanding of R&D timelines. Rinse and repeat – now the German gov insists that it will have 80% of its energy come from renewables in 2030, 100% in 2025. How – that one really important question is never answered. The current situation is also not treated with the required urgency. It is almost as if Germany and Europe thinks that there is a door Nr. 2 that will open miraculously in the near future. A door that is supposed to give them easy access to all Russia has to offer. Free for the taking.
So I have been wondering too. What are they waiting/hoping for? Unless they weren’t hoping but rather had expected things to be different by now. I would like to see some of the analysts play out possible scenarios of where we would be if Russia had indeed taken Ukraine, all of it, in that very short time frame the West had planned for. Where would be now if this had actually played out like that? Clearly the West had expectations that the energy crisis would never go this far. Shout out to Pepe Escobar. Alexander Mercouris. Etc.
But now we have a different mess. You’d think soccer happy Europeans had a better grasp on the concept of scoring an own-goal…. Yet here we are, they keep scoring them. Almost oblivious that they are actually own-goals.
You are still imagining that those various European governments are acting in the interests of their people.
This battle is top versus bottom not left versus right or any other confected division in our world.
Governments are captured by inexperience, blackmail and corruption to do the bidding of the financial oligarchs.
The more this is not understood the more they win.
Imagine how much intellectual energy has gone into this blog collectively. Yet there is not a lot of consensus. Why? I think if one starts with even one false assumption, what follows is wasted energy.
To have any hope of avoiding the fate they have planned for us, we must first identify and second name the enemy.
IMO in the physical world the enemies are the oligarchs and their strategists first and foremost, the apologists and propagandists and mercenaries second and the wilfully ignorant class whose lives are subsidised by the rest of humanity are also enemies in a sense.
None of them need be mortal enemies if there were only a critical mass of understanding and consensus by those who are capable of such things…….like us lot here.
Paul Craig Roberts, the right-wing economist, who served under Reagan, asserts that he was told by a senior US official that in Europe ‘we but the politicians’! Can’t think of any other logical explanation
Just for the record and to understand what your input really meant, I gather you made an unvoluntary typo error while typing fast right ? So I am guessing you meant to say that Paul Craig Roberts asserted that in Europe ” we BUY the politicians ” didn´t you ? You meant to type ´B-U-Y´ instead of ´b-u-t´ correct ? Otherwise I´m sorry to say I can´t follow the logic. Please clarify.
But if you did mean that PCR asserted that the US just “BUYS” European politicians I still can´t follow the logic because what about Europeans ? Do not Europeans yet realize that their political class is not anywhere close to defend Europe´s best interests ? Are they not yet aware that many / most will freeze / starve to death come winter ? I mean, politicians can be bought by the US for sure but many / most people are not stupid, are they ? So even if European politicians were “bought out” by the US, the lemmings attitude of everyday Europeans does not make any sense to me.
An excerpt from the article J.Lowrie was trying to reference:
In the 1970s my Ph.D. dissertation chairman, then a very high-ranking official in Washington with control over international security affairs, asked me to undertake a sensitive mission
abroad. I refused. Nevertheless, he answered my question: “How does Washington get foreign countries to do what Washington wants?”
“Money,” he said. “We give their leaders bagfuls of money. They belong to us.”
This explains the Politicians. As for the citizens, most people tend to be sheep following a “leader” In the UK you will be arrested if you use a knife to defend yourself from someone who broke into your house. When Catalonia (I think it was) tried to secede from Spain, the police beat the crap out grandmothers. Governments all over the world have been carefully, slowly grabbing more more power and setting up vast surveillance systems to be able to identify “troublemakers”.
It is possible that they have pushed to far too fast with some of the recent behavior, especially related to lockdowns and mandates for that thing which shall not be discussed here. Consider that here in the USA, with the 2nd amendment, hundreds of millions of guns in the hands of citizens, and Thomas Jefferson warning us that if the tree of liberty was not refreshed periodically (he estimated about every 20 years) “with the blood of patriots and tyrants” We would end up in a bad way.
It has now gone over 200 years without being refreshed, and for all practical purposes the US federal government operates much more like a fascist dictatorship than a republic, as intended, or even a representative democracy. Instead of 2 wolves and one sheep voting on what’s for dinner, it is more like 100,000 deep state operators slowing but steadily increasingly bleeding the other 350 million people dry.
Harvard publish a study showing the in almost all cases it is the richest 1% that determine what legislation is passed. Sorry for this gloomy explanation. I just don’t see any other explanation that makes sense.
Thanks for your well-taken input. Hal, I fully agreed with you until you said …” I think rather that somehow the Europeans will find a way to lie, to cheat, to steal. They will find a way to keep the lamps burning….”
How so, Hal Duell ? Exactly how, please tell us — educate me — I´m a humble person and will admit it if reality or someone proves me wrong, trust me. But Hal, is it just faith you have, as in religious faith ? OKay, you are certainly entitled to that but if it were another technical / practical solution I am missing please tell us, the sooner the better so my articles stop creating the panic they might be provoking per some observers probably reading this right now..
I mean, this is not about me Hal, this is about 800 million people starving / freezing to death in a very short while we shall all witness and suffer along also watching the sad scene, if and when we can avoid starvation and freezing ourselves of course.
Hal, I am no genius on anything and lots and lots of people are smarter than me and know far more than myself. Maybe you are one such person, so please comment further. But at least I know that I know enough — and have explained plenty about it repeating in depth and to death — and can assert without a smidgeon of a doubt that Europe is heading at full speed towards the darkest place imaginable.
The only solution I have found after thinking this conundrum out over and over and over nightime daytime sideways from right to left and from left to right crossways from top down from bottom up etc etc etc is what I have already published in my recent article “Pitchforks soon in Europe” at https://thesaker.is/pitchforks-soon-in-europe/
The only solution as you say to “keep the European lights burning” — at least MY only solution — in my humble opinion is for Europeans to do as hereby proposed
” …please stop the Russophobia right now, reverse the current unwarranted course 180 degrees, return the money robbed, by your own doing change your leadership ASAP, accept Russia´s territorial claims, accept the decline of Europe and the Western world at large, drop the Anglo-Saxon Brexitology superiority philosophy, guarantee Russia´s existential security and stop the shameful European nonsense now exposed for the world to see.”
And also make yourselves responsible and accountable — not like Germans in WW2 just following orders — and fire OUT the whole entire European political class “in masse” ALL of them out and change them all for better ones. Otherwise, pitchforks will soon roam about European streets with absolutely nothing to lose as everything would have been taken away from them.
I too suspect Hal is likely on the right track in thinking that the European ‘leaders’ will lie, cheat and steal their way out of this. It’s more of a gut feeling rather than an article of religious faith.
Your arguments and conclusions are rational, sensible and, dare I say it, sane.
But if the last few years (in particular) are any guide, it would appear that the mass of individuals in Zone A are not. Most of them are mostly mind controlled. This is the genius of the Western ‘elite’ (there is little overlap between this elite group and the official leaders); they have a masterful understanding of how to manipulate the human mind en mass to elicit the behaviors they desire.
We few may see the lies for what they are. the masses we accept them a ‘truth’. We may see how they cheat, the masses will accept it as ‘business as usual’. We may see the stealing. The masses will accept it as a legitimate transaction. And they will accept these things because they themselves will be told what to think, what to say and how to act. That’s all it takes.
In this sort of environment nothing is off the table. Neither I, nor, I suspect, Hal, can tell how they will do this. But they will at least try.
My gut tells me they will get away with it, but this time at a terrible cost (for them). The real-world downstream effects of the thing we do not talk about here plus the sanctions have woken up too many in Zone A, if not to reality, to at least the awareness that something is terribly ‘wrong’.
The fracturing of their mind control is what they fear most. And it’s happening more more each day.
Cadders, I true that, meaning I follow your very well-taken points which might yet be exactly as explained and presented. Still, and even if this “hypnosis” of sorts were exactly as you describe it, please do trust me Cadders that freezing and starving to death will snap them out of it like a bat out of h*ll.
And this is what got ME out of my hole !
This is the very reason I have sticked out my neck at this late stage of my life.
I mean we are talking about unheard-of mass migrations, deep generalized hunger beyond the 1930s– which may include partially disguised cannibalism… — freezing cold which will make the Middle Ages look like a champagne garden party… etc. etc. etc. with urban populations ready to expode.
No Cadders, no way THIS time they´ll talk and politicize their way out of it selling their lies for “truths”.
The reason is basic survival, not an intellectul debate of what is best etc etc etc.
“but if it were another technical / practical solution”
May i suggest:
If you are right and i personally think you are, the link above may be useful for some of my fellow humans stranded on the European continent.
Sorry for my bad attempt at humor, this is a serious topic and im glad i get to keep warm and fed this winter.
Next year who knows🤷♂️
Why isn’t there any pressure on Canada to release the repaired turbine for the compressor train ? My understanding is there are 6 compressor trains on this pipeline and only two are running.
Canada simply releasing that one 1 turbine would increase flow by ( pulls out slide rule ) 30%. The other compressor trains are to be serviced also for a full flow of NG to Germany so they can fill their storage tanks to 100% ( now at 58% filled ) before winter heating season starts on 1.Oct.
Why is Canada sanctioning Germany ?
Bloomberg (regimist) article with a fair description of the technical issues with the pipeline servicing and Canada sanctioning Germany
(1) Canada is a dominion of the British and AZE. They lack agency. Consider Canada a catspaw.
(2) There is a resumption of the infamous 1944-47 Morgenthau Plan, conceived with the key input of British planning. For over a century, the Anglo-Saxons equivocated between arming and sending Germans eastwards and mercilessly levelling Germany’s modern way of life. It is an old game and the pendulum has swung back towards degradation.
Before the 1947 Marshall Plan began in Europe, with an eye to using Europe to wage Cold War on USSR, there was the Morgenthau Plan. This plan aimed at “partitioning the country into several smaller states, destroying its heavy industry and turning the country into an agrarian society… In particular, the industries in the Ruhr and Saar regions (Germany’s key industrial and coal-producing regions) were to be destroyed. He wanted Germany to keep its rich farmlands in the east and become a pastoral society. However, Stalin insisted on the Oder-Neisse border, which ceded those farmlands to Poland.”
– U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Hull argued that the Morgenthau Plan would leave nothing but land to the German population, and since only about 60% of the Germans could live off that land, 40% of the population would perish.
I.e. genocide onm Germans
Exile, actually Canada cannot skip the European sanctions. No way. It is the EU that sanctioned Russia and Canada is just complying. Does Europe / Germany want Russian gas through NS1 ? Well then, lift the sanctions and allow Canada to repair / maintain the turbines and ship them back to Russia. But Europe cannot pretend for Canada to skip the European sanctions putting Canada at fault. Nope, Canadians are not that stupid. Cordially Jorge
There are dozens of exceptions and loopholes to the sanctions ( just ask Washington ) – hence my question
Exile, okay, I read you… but they have to be official exemptions / exceptions whatever from the EU or daddy US. I hate Trudeau, but Canada in its right mind cannot cut itself alone on absolutely anything. Canada has to follow “their” rules. In understand and your point is well taken, but Canada is a pawn a peon without any authority on decision-making capability on any of all this and yet more to come. Cordially Jorge
Another great analysis by Jorge but he misses the point.
Per previous comment…”One has to remember that Nuland said “F**K the EU”.
The Germans deserve a special mention. The German lap dogs have demonstrated they can survive on potato peels and sawdust like they did in the bombed-out city craters at the end of WW2. The NAZI is in the DNA and so they are resolved to impose the unipolar “rules based order” on the rest of the world and are sending weapons to continue the conflict in the Ukraine to everyone else’s peril given the risk of an escalation of the war.
I’m certain that ideologies are not genetic – no one is born ‘Nazi’ any more than anyone is born ‘communist’.
On their own volition, or at the behest of an external hegemon (the USA)?
What we’re seeing is self flagellation by bureaucrats inflicting suffering upon the people, which can only bring chaos and rebellion. Maybe that’s what is needed to shake things up, so Europeans start fighting for sovereignty.
That´s why I published my article ” Pitchforks soon in Europe ? ” at https://thesaker.is/pitchforks-soon-in-europe/ Cordially Jorge
Ouch. Sucks to be European, I guess
Meanwhile here in southern Australia buying an old diesel ute and tractor with a mechanical injection pump and planting a few acres of oil crop seems like a smart move.
Right now John Greer’s bloggin from a decade or more ago is starting to look awfully prescient.
Sorry, but you are talking about things way above their comprehension. They are living in Brussels, that is the country in which chips aka French fries were invented. As good housewives know you can switch from rapeseed oil aka connola oil to sunflower oil to palm or coconut oil in your fryer and still produce good quality chips.
So what is your problem? You can make good chips from all these different oils.
See? You have hit the nail on the head! This so you cannot make french fries with wonderful Urals oil! It is called “crude” oil for a very genuine reason. Bah!
Per German media…”Putin’s plan is to put pressure on the market to make prices in Europe more expensive. According to Habeck, it is mainly a matter of stirring up social unrest and breaking down unity. He wants to make sure that Putin “does not win,” the economy minister told ZDF heute Journal. Measures are also being taken to ensure the unity of society.”
Meanwhile the Germans have stolen Russian assets and are arming Uke Nazis to kill Russians in a conflict that was engineered by NATO yet they have the gall to bitch about reduced gas supplies from Russia. These people are total psychopaths.
well, the important point is, does German ppl eat these?
Answer is, Yes. They do. Specially the Young. The young who never experience struggle in life, live and dreaming of an utopia, they fully trust on German media. And those old fancy liberal, born and grow up in economic wonder, experience that by time passing by things are getting easy.
These ppl vote to Green, and recently put them in government to Schleswig-Holstein and NRW.
This Green, push German young for years to vandalize as protest, to stop Nuclear and Coal power plant.
And now the same Green, as politically and intellectually they are nothing but empty – don’t know what to do but renew the Nuclear and Coal.
Just this could be a reason to end of any political party. But, the rainbow young, living in utopia, for whom life is nothing but an infinite fun – have no choice but the Green.
Alas, German would again pay the price, … without doing anything.
Still, and even if this “green hypnosis” of sorts specially on the rainbow young (I agree) or the “fancy liberal” (I also agree) were exactly as you describe it, please do trust me that freezing and starving to death will snap them out of it instantaneously.
When extreme hardships affect everybody with no exception and everybody is surrounded ( or part of ) massive migrations, deep generalized hunger beyond the 1930s plus freezing cold… etc. etc. etc. they´ll all instantly wake-up from their lethargic comfort.
We are talking about basic survival, not an intellectual debate on failed green wisdom
The answer is staring us in the face. The EU is trying to shut down the oil refinery industry within the EU – just like Margaret Thatcher shut down the coal mining industry in the UK. The EU does not intend to replace Russian oil which is why there is no indication of changes to the refineries.
This policy will delight anyone Green.
Fuel and distillates can be bought in from multiple sources and if the EU acts together as a purchaser then it might secure better prices from smaller suppliers (this is a sentiment that has been expressed by EU leaders before).
The higher costs of the imported fuels will be borne by the consumers with corresponding higher tax revenues to the state to help pay for the relatively few jobs lost in the refineries. Higher fuel prices will make electric vehicles more competitive.
A political win-win even if an economic disaster.
Haymer Doots, going back to dirty brown coal will not delight anyone green, mind you. Cordially Jorge
Absolutely correct. However, using coal instead of gas (rather than oil) is a bit of a different issue to the refinery question. If the EU want to eradicate Russian oil and it is not possible to find a substitute then either said EU officials are being a) suicidally stupid (difficult to believe), or b) bluffing in the hope that normal relations with Russia will happen before Jan 2023 (possible but politically dangerous) or c) devious, knowing it is the end of refining in the EU. The lack of attempting to make necessay changes to the refineries seems to point to b or c – c is IMHO the likeliest solution.
I´d say that all of your 3 options are open, including option (a) as difficult as it is to believe it. Maybe accepting that they all are ignorant fools would help diagnose their attitudes.
Now then, even if your options (b) and/or (c) result valid, exactly what excuse would EU leaders find to justify their actions ? People are not stupid you know. They´d all be back to your option (a) and they´ll all have to resign ´in masse´ so as to be replaced by others to rewind sanctions, embrace Russia as a business partner, return the stolen funds, etc. etc. etc as stated in my previous article ” Pitchforks soon in Europe ” no ?
No. The EU bureaucrats are trying to shut down the oil refining industry. Doing so will hurt Russia (unless Russia finds other customers) and will decouple the EU/Russian energy sector further. The majority of the refined products – fuels – can be sourced outside the EU (and as pointed out in the article India is becoming a larger source of supply). So there won’t be mass freezing and starving masses and probably no pitch-forks.
Of course the bureaucrats will be publicly dumbfounded that the technologists have failed to find other sources of supply and thus factories have closed but that is the march of progress and not their fault. As politicians they will do what they can – remove some of the higher tax off the much higher priced fuel for a few months – that sort of thing.
No pitchforks, no resignations en masse – just the slow steady capitalist boiling of the lower-class frog by inflation and higher energy prices.
From everything I have read, shutting down EU refineries and oil supply from Russia has proved a boon to Russia. They are selling more product to India and China and making more money than ever before. The EU may import refined oil from India- ( assuming India agrees) but at much elevated prices- and it may not replace all the Russian oil. Assuming this is the case- they are now beholden to India instead of Russia, at much greater cost with unknown future regarding political developments.
Regarding the reduction/ elimination of Russian gas- no obvious solution . Brown coal is a terrible option, and dependence on windmills and solar is very iffy and much less efficient.
Unfortunately- The EU (Germany in particular) has destroyed its future. One would think they could have chosen a more capable person than Ursula Van der Leyen, given her extremely poor track record. Ultimately they get what they deserve for their arrogance and ignorance.
I couldn´t have said it any better myself.
Applause, applause, and more applause.
Short & sweet, complete and on focus
I rest my case, and as from now on barbara maxwell is in charge.
She´ll answer any further questions posited herein, not me.
I mean — seriously — barbara does a much better job than myself !!
Please agree, I am serious !!!
barbara stick around please, stay close gal.
The only comment I dare to add is addressed to Haymer Doots.
Haymer, thanks for your feedback and thoughts the discussion broadened and — for example — provoked barbara´s excellent reply. But beyond that Haymer, the cascading economic impact of closing down all of the European refineries and other petrochemical crude oil processing industries from one day to the other is MONSTRUOUS and probably close to 15% of European GDP with instant pitchforks roaming the streets throughout Europe. And the press, labor unions, and workers families and neighbors and people at large will know why, no way to cheat them on that sorry to disagree on this.
Jorge is right about Doots’s Option A (German stupidity) being a real possibility. Look at it from the US vantage point: “Sacrificing the economy to the last German” is simply an extension of “Fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.” It’s WORTH IT to the US, without regard for German or other European suffering.
The key is that European politics is run by NATO, not national parliaments. And NATO is the paymaster of the politicians who announce policy — paymaster for their entire careers and “descent from heaven” to the private sector to reap their rewards from US NGOs.
Prof. Michael HUdson, three things.
One, fancy meeting you here.
Two, I am humbled by your participation and wish to always hear from you also in future “The Saker” articles.
Three, I agree. NATO is the pupeteer / paymaster here which means that European voters could not be any dumber, Germans included. I think it was you Michael who said this is the third time in a century that the US completely fools Europe once again. Yet again, I agree.
Jorge is right about option A — German stupidity — being a likely alternative.
Look at it from the U.S. vantage point. Germany’s energy suffering — Sanction Russia to the last German household and shred of prosperity — is simply the analog to “fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.”
It’s “worth it” to NATO. And European politics is run via the Brussels Parliament, which is a branch of NATO. The politicians have a different set of calculations from the average European household. They’re looking at their careers after they leave government, seeking their “descent from heaven” at US-financed NGOs (not to mention white envelopes filled with cash).
German policy is NATO policy. And NATO is run by the US.
And the US is run by who, exactly?
This is a math problem and the only way to make the equation balance is by reducing population. People die in European winters when they freeze to death because there is not heat. People die when there is not enough fertilizer to grow food and the price of diesel is too expensive to make it profitable for farmers to put the crops in the ground. And because if Russia refuses to supply oil to those supporting aggressiona against Russian people then it must all be Russia’s doing, right?
Who has a religious ideology that maintains that it is acceptable to bring all manner of suffering, including death to anyone not of that religion?
All to often we let the details prevent us from seeing the underlying structure, and if that structure is flawed it matters not what the details are.
……..and how is this electricity produced for electric vehicles ?
I envy how rapidly and succintly you have revealed the ´inconvenient truth´ (hahahh) behind electrical vehicles.
Nordstream2 pipeline and pumps, presumably brand shining new, sitting idle, just waiting to be used?
If a Green can re-start brown-coal works, they surely can certify NS2 – plenty practice at that (Waghals), and keep NPP’s up and running?
Second question – Russia said retribution for Lithuania would be to cut off a Polish pipeline to their largest refinery, doing enormous economic damage. How would that work – looking at the maps I cannot see how?
Rosyjski rurociąg do Możejek przestał działać w momencie zakupienia rafinerii przez Polskę.
Ropa transportowana jest koleją.
Litwa rozebrała część torów, by wydłużyć trasę o kilkadziesiąt kilometrów i dzięki temu zapewnić większe zyski swojej firmie kolejowej.
Rurociągu do portu w Kłajpedzie nie wybudowano do dziś.
The Russian pipeline to Mazeikiu stopped working when Poland purchased the refinery.
Crude oil is transported by rail.
Lithuania has dismantled some of the tracks in order to extend the route by several dozen kilometers and thus ensure greater profits for its railway company.
The pipeline to the port of Klaipeda has not been built to this day.
A German paper the other day suggested Germany nationalise part of NS2 to then connect it to a LNG pipeline from the coast!
But plenty of funds to keep Ukraine gov and war machine going whivh will omly ever more bleed EU to death eg today
Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko of Ukraine and his German counterpart Christian Lindner have signed an Agreement between the two governments on providing Ukraine with EUR 1 billion in grant funding.
This was reported by the press service of Ukraine’s finance ministry, Ukrinform reports.
“The funds will be directed to the state budget of Ukraine to finance priority social and humanitarian expenditures amid martial law,” the statement reads.
It is noted that the funds will be sent to Ukraine through the mechanism of the International Monetary Fund’s Administered Account.
Ukraine has reportedly received more than $6 billion in foreign aid in the form of grants and loans since the start of the full-scale war. In particular, Ukraine received long-term soft loans from the German government amounting to a total of EUR 300 million to finance the state budget.
more info here re funding for Ukraine.
Devex’s Funding Platform has recorded more than $100 billion in commitments for Ukraine. However, a relatively small percentage of that funding is humanitarian-focused.
More info on site.
I true that. That´s why at the very beginning of this article I stated: ” … So the plan seems to be to steal yet more per Ref #2 https://www.rt.com/business/557731-germany-seeking-nationalize-nord-stream2/ ”
They should put these politicians in front of a computer simulation. They input the actions they want to take and then get to see the consequences over time. I guess this is wishful thinking.
Habeck drastically reduced shower time, again, to less than 5 min.
He laughed at Dutch shower times from 10 min down to 5 min.
It is going to get pretty smelly in the Bundestag.
No idea of the pong in Ursula von der Leyen’s EU Parliament. Probably Chanel .
Furthermore, senior folks — of which there are many — can´t shower that fast either or it´d be truly dangerous them falling on hard bathroom floors. As a matter of fact many old folks cannot shower, period. Either fractioned hygene with a wash-cloth or tub immersion which would be prohibitive no ?
It’s not the length of the shower that counts, it is the amount of hot water used.
And, the truth of the matter, in my personal experience, is that Germans were perfectly capable of maintaining a high standard of personal hygiene before everyone had their own shower and took a shower every day (a l’americaine: don’t bother to turn off the water while soaping up and just let the hot water run full blast for 10 minutes). In the seventies I lived in a room near the uni in Munich where a large apartment had been converted to rooms for students (a typical arrangement). Each room had a wash basin. There was one bathroom (and separate toilet) and I think we paid for the hot water for a bath. There was one kitchen for all. Virtually all of my friends lived like this. Similarly, when I traveled with my friend to go skiing, we stayed stayed in Pensionen (cheap for students), there was a wash basin in the room and bathroom and (separate) toilet down the hall. Guests understood how to conduct themselves in this situ: you would see an elderly couple in their bathrobes, carrying their wash kits, heading for the bath. Everyone nodded politely. If you also wanted to take a bath, they came and knocked on your door when they were finished with the bathroom.
Most seniors I am aware of (my very aged father, before he died at the age of 102; my 94-year-olf friend in Tucson; and others) shower once a week, when an assistant can help. No tub immersion. Difficulty getting the person out of the tub. They sit on a special seat designed for sitting safely in a bathtub so the helper can run the shower or wash with hand-held Brause. There is no need to waste water because they are elderly.
I am not suggesting dialing back the clock on personal showers. But I am saying that we take our wasteful lifestyle so much for granted that it has become an affront to even consider priorities—to develop a frugal attitude and not waste the fuels and energy sources that we have, and that certainly includes “renewables.” (One of the problems with the renewables ideology is the conviction many people have that since the electric power is “free” they can use as much as they want–let the good times roll on! I guess if there is a tempest and the turbines are spinning at top speed, that might be the time for everyone to take a ten minute shower!). People really think they can’t stay clean if they don’t run hot water over themselves for 10 minutes a day.
Obviously the energy squeeze will be far greater when it comes to comparably irreducible needs such as running factories and chemical plants and keeping heating systems going. I know that per capita energy use in the USA is twice that of Europeans, so Europeans are already more frugal, or the infrastructure, or life styles are so set up that they are automatically more frugal.
But it the EU is in effect going to put itself through a turbulent, draconian green transition, if I were in charge I would put the continent on a war footing. I would institute a strict system of energy accounting whereby the aim is to measure the energy use of every domicile, to establish a bottom line, and then mandate, say, a 20% reduction in all energy use, or perhaps just of electric power (for starters)—how to accomplish this to be chosen by citizens themselves. IOW, a plan with specific goals to reduce energy use. After all, each residential unit has an electric meter, right? What are meters for if not to provide handy real-time data?
War footing or not, we need to get serious about energy accounting, so we know exactly where savings can be gained. Back in the fifties we children were trained to turn out the lights when we left a room. I think this was standard (but can’t be sure because my mother was German!). What the hell happened to this mentality?
Spruch , Nie Wieder, und machen genau das wieder!
Und Gott blamieren wenn es schief geht!
Ich kenne dieses Spruch nicht.
Aber es wird nichts nutzen, Gott zu blamieren!!!
In lots of parts of southern Europe the problem is not energy, it is water.
You just need to let a garden hoose exposed to the sun to get water warm enough to do the dishes but just now lots of areas are on garden-watering bans.
Barcelona desalinates seawater, (which means using energy) but lots of places are far away from the Mediteranean …
Drinking water is getting more and more expensive only partly because it is scarce.
It is the pre-treatment and the sweage system and treatment of used water that get more expensive (especially were there was none before) as humanity has finaly understood that it poisons itself if it poisons the rivers and the sea. All that building and digging and laying pipes and running the facilities use energy… and water before any of that can be done.
It is around three hundred years of poisoning soils and water that have to be cleaned, with regarding some polluants no presently known method.
In northen Europe, take Stockholm as an exemple, you can run a house on sunshine 9 month per year but you need external electricity and/or source of heat under the dark cold winter.
It means that the grid has to accomodate huge seasonnal shifts in demand on top of big shifts of demand between day and night.
Heavy industry flattens the curves, though, and Scandinavian hydropower plus a bunch of NNP secured everything untill a number of interconnection cables started to strain the system because continental Europe and the UK got short of capacity (cutting corners, outages and stupid short-sighted ukazes).
Drought – specially in southern Norway, of all places – did not help, and neither did lazy winds, so spot prices – already driven up by “renewable” contractual demand on the continent – went crazy (too many salers produce absolutely nothing but are still allowed to recrute “green” custommers in the idiotic UE-system).
That was before the 8-years old kinetic war in the Donbass extended to the Ukraine, but the paper-war against the NS2 pipeline had started long before.
Gazprom eventually finished the jobb in spite of the sabotage but the US and their goons managed to block certification… while pouring garbage on V V Putin.
Last year’s mad electricy prices were basically caused by the sabotage of the NS2’s certification. Hypocrites should be dumped in a cesspool.
Present crazy prices of everything are solelly the result of NATO’s insane economic (for Europe selfdestroying) war on Russia, following the criminal plandemic COVID-1984.
There is absolutely no need to stop having a warm shower or two in Germany, but there is an urgent need to get rid of the politicians who ruin us for the sake of the neocons’ urge to dominate the entire world (their ukrainian nazi puppets are just a very uggly tool).
Turn on the gaspipe! Promto, genast, immediately, TUJ, tout de suite !!!
Thanks for the many observations.
Regarding the garden hose, yes, at least enough water for a HOT shower if a black hose is lying in the sun.
“but the paper-war against the NS2 pipeline had started long before.”
I don’t quite follow this statement. Plans for NS2 were a response to the many aggravations the Ukraine as a transit state cooked up for Russia, aided and abetted by the EU’s ridiculous competition rules, and also as a response to changes in the gas market in Europe. I think Germany (and other EU countries) wanted NS2 and the direct supply of Russian gas, bypassing the Ukraine and Belarus. There had been a major standoff between Russia and Ukraine over gas deliveries in 2008–9, resulting in Eurpoeans freezing and all kinds of fancy footwork to get gas flowing backwards to the Czech Republic, etc.. Certainly there were a lot of big players involved in the financing.
In 2013 a book on Gazprom was published in which occurs this assessment:
“Nord Stream comes ashore in Germany and is linked with the Wingas grid through two interconnectors, the NEL (Norddeutsche Erdgasleitung) and the OPAL (Ostsee-Pipeline-Anbindungsleitung) (see Figure 6.1). The NEL, leading west—440 kilometers long and with an annual capacity of 20 bcm—links Greifswald, Germany, with gas storage facilities in Rehden and the MIDAL (Mitte-Deutschland-Anbindungsleitung) pipeline. OPAL—470 kilometers long and with a capacity 35 bcm—will run south and terminate near the border of the Czech Republic. It connects Nord Stream with the JAGAL and STEGAL (Sachsen-Thüringen-Erdgas-Anbindungsleitung) pipelines. Both interconnectors are controlled by Wingas (51%) and are co-owned by the Nord Stream members E.ON (10%) and Gasunie (20%) and also by the Belgian gas distributor and system operator Fluxys (19%).
****Germany is thus becoming the focal point of old and new gas flows from Russia to western and central Europe,**** with possible extensions of supply to the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and France—and even to the United Kingdom through the offshore BBL (Balgzand– Bacton Line) pipeline, in which Gazprom holds a stake. . . .
***The development of the Nord Stream project benefitted from the political support of national authorities of gas-importing countries—the older EU members.**** The European Commission also provided early support, in 2006, by including it in the list of 42 priority energy projects of pan-European interest within the Trans-European Networks (TEN). TEN is a privileged status granted to infrastructure projects that are seen as contributing to the stable development and reliable delivery of energy sources and encouraging competition in the European energy sector. . . .
***The favorable political configuration around construction of Nord Stream neutralized the political resistance of some newer EU members*** and the opposition of environmental organizations such as Greenpeace and the Worldwide Fund for Nature. The potential economic benefits of Nord Stream were seen to outweigh real and alleged political and environmental losses and made this pipeline preferable to alternative gas transportation projects for the Baltic region. In spite of which the Nord Stream development consortium was forced to make some concessions to the littoral states to get permission for construction of the offshore section. For example, the original Baltic Sea route was changed to bypass the economic zones of Poland and Estonia.”
Gazprom: An Energy Giant and Its Challenges in Europe. Andrey Vavilov, ed. Palgrave Macmillan, 2014, from chap. 6.
It seems like “newer EU members” never gave up on their opposition to NS2—they were bitching about it quite recently and applying pressure for Germany not to certify NS2 well before the SMO started, I seem to recall—, and now maybe they have gotten their way. They were probably really happy for the SMO to come along and dprovide a pretext to nix the project.
I agree with many things that you say, but producing water requires ENERGY. and cleaning up dirty waterways and water sources requires ENERGY. And in the specific case of Europe today such energy can only be Russian. Cordially Jorge
“This impossible re-vamping and retrofitting of absolutely everything will consume humongous amounts of euros, human resources, expertise, trials & errors, risk and lots of hard work and lots and lots of time.”
Forget the Euros (always can be printed) but the most important point of all was missing. Where is the energy for all this coming from?
Arthur, yes, the energy and the time-frame opportunity. It´d be like trying to change the engine oil while cruising at 150 km/hr without ever stopping the car. You can´t shut down Europe for months. It´s all nonsensical to try re-vamping and retrofitting of absolutely everything simultaneously.
You are the town crier coursing through the digital planetary pathways ringing the bell of Truth. As such, your message provides the best chance that the citizens of Europe will wake up from their confounding slumber and take action.
Very warm regards,
Gianni, as always, thank you for your much-needed encouragment. As you have wisely observed — and as I have said repeatedly, I know — mine is a very lonely task. So thanks again …tante grazie per te caro Gianni
Ao que tudo indica, Biden e Boris sabem que “perderam” o sul global para China e Rússia. Então precisam liquidar com concorrentes “aliados” para continuarem, ao menos, a impor seu tacão em uma Europa economicamente arrasada e dependente de tudo.
By all accounts, Biden and Boris know they have “lost” the global south to China and Russia. So they need to liquidate with “allied ” competitors in order to continue, at least, to impose their heel on an economically devastated and dependent on everything Europe.
Roberto, leaders might do whatever they decide, but does public opinion know about any of this ?
Are Europeans really aware that they are being “liquidated” and that Europe is being “economically devasted and dependent on everything ?” I don´t think so… Cordially Jorge
Roberto, ous “chefes” podem fazer cualqueim coisas mais penso che la gente nao tem idea da tudo que vocé corretamente nos-dizer. Olha, a gente Europea fica no “limbo” ta ? Obrigado Roberto
Europeans nowadays are not serious people. Alex Christoforou (of the Duran) has a daily video, beginning with news, closing with a “Clown World” section. But listening to his western news, nearly all it belong to Clown World.
They seem so incompetent, irrational, without any common sense and self-defeating, it beggars belief, “Are these the best Europe has to offer as leaders”? But then, they have some weird ideology that they believe in and enough Europeans believe in the same thing (so far, without pain, which will change). So, they follow through with what they believe in. Mindset training (propaganda) leading to mass formation psychosis, indeed.
”they seem so incompetent, irrational, without any common sense and self-defeating, it beggars belief, Are these the best Europe has to offer as leaders”? But then, they have some weird ideology that they believe in….”
no one seems to ask the vital question – why? has nobody realized that the WEF infiltrated in lots of places might just be manipulating/bribing/threatening these ‘leaders’, in fact they may be part of the infiltrators themselves. therefore, everything is going to plan….’you will own nothing but will be happy’.
shutting down industry would seem to be a necessary step towards that end, no?
I probably is normal for Humans to act like this. You see that all over in history books.
And the gender and woke cancel culture completed with a Covid lockdown test completely eradicated any logic in the public discussions. People either don’t want to think or accept whatever happens. Only when there is actually pain, that might change. But then the damage is long done.
Steffen Bendel, I read you and I agree. But all I´m saying is that PAIN is coming, PAIN is on its way. And the damage would not necessarily be “LONG DONE” as you say. Please remember that all Russia has to do is open a valve with 1 (one) lever and Russian gas and oil would flow normally to Europe.
” Only a bunch of fools ”
EU$A Leadership, in a nutshell.
Will read the document details later.
How many Green Girls and Hairstyled Habecks does it take to open a gas tap?
Herr Habeck is getting cold feet allright for reasons stated in the very first phrase of this article. But please excuse my French… but he´s also getting a cold a** with his blitzkrieg shower time no ? This is Germany today in mid-summer, can´t make this stuff up…
Thank zou for exhaustive study, however it should be understood that thugs in Brisel don’t give a damn for European population. They have time limited mandates and thay want as much to steel as possible. Just look for this sample: Who do you think will get all these grants?
There is a new funding opportunity under the LIFE CET Call for Proposals 2022. This call has nearly EUR 100 million available for funding project ideas, notably to enhance the skills of professionals involved in the green transition.. Projects are supported with a 95% co-funding rate.
Thank you for your valuable input Nigrutin. Cordially Jorge
You can send Bliiy Preston to entertain the hapless, Robert Habeck.
…”Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’
You gotta have somethin’ if you wanna be with me
Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’
You gotta have somethin’ if you wanna be with me
I’m not tryna be your hero
‘Cause that zero is too cold for me, brrr
I’m not tryin’ to be your highness
‘Cause that minus is too low to see, yeah
Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’
And I’m not stuffin’, believe you me
Don’t you remember I told ya
I’m a soldier in the war on poverty, yeah, yes, I am
Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’
You gotta have somethin’ if you wanna be with me, oh baby
Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’
You gotta have somethin’ if you wanna be with me
That’s right, ha yeah
Gotta have somethin’ if you wanna be with me
You gotta bring me somethin’, girl, if you wanna be with me”…
Have a pleasant evening, sir, you hit another home run with this post.
Thank YOU Marcellus you are always very kind with your favorable comments. I do try hard, that´s true Marcellus. Take care Cordially Jorge
German Economic Affairs Minister Habeck, PhD in Philosophy with :
„Die Natur der Literatur: Zur gattungstheoretischen Begründung literarischer Ästhetizität“.
“The Nature of Literature: On the Genus-Theoretical Justification of Literary Aesthetics”.
Analysis here (use Edge) :
Apparently Habeck looks at the new concept of Metanoia, mental upheaval, from Anke Hennig and Armen Avanessian.
Interesting that Ray McGovern, ex-CIA analysist, mentioned Metanoia, a paradigm shift that is right now in upheaval.
Are we seeing an insane Counter upheaval, an irrational outburst against the world changing by the day?
A kind of terrorism against the future? Russia’s Glazyev and Putin say often this is irreversible.
Excellent article as always. Since you’ve been here, I look forward to your next one. The fact that you repeat a few things is like grade schools where repetition is needed for it to sink in with the slower kids. Europe is definitely the slowest child. Another fact I haven’t seen address is the existing supply chain issue. The lack of certain computer chips would put all of this on permanent hold. Like some car manufacturers in the US that discontinued certain models for lack of said chips
Germany, Auto AG, noticed that the auto cable-trunk component, only installed at assembly time, are all sourced in … Ukraine!
Mundane, not chips, and a conveyor belt stopper.
Never mind that a new Merc has 19 computers, ok chips not Intel multicore, but essential with few sources.
Immaculate deception, just plain thank you so much for your favorable comments certainly most welcome. And yes, true enough, you are correct. I do repeat here and there also trying to reword a few key things because they are simply not aprehended and do not sink in, so my teacher´s recourse is to repeat somethings in somewhat different wording and context. And let´s accept that for a broad audience this is a very arid technical subject so I empathize with all of you out there, grandmas and grandpas included. And tech people do know all and far more than myself — trust me — but I guess they don´t care for it´s always up to somebody else to warn and act, they are just techies, you follow ? So this is not about me it´s about 800 million people that will starve and freeze badly in a very short time span unless policiticians reverse course 180 and declare the battle / war lost with Russia winning and taking all. If there is any other “solution” out there I am all ears. There are many many many people smarter and more knowledgeable than myself. MANY.
So thank you again Immaculate deception you are a keen observer and a very persistent reader / follower. Thank you. Regarding micro-chips well and their scarcity vis-á-vis their upstream supply chain position I wrote about them some and the lack of Russian neon gas for their etching and manufacture. No neon, no semi-conductors, no screens, no nerds, no cars, no modern machinery, no airplanes, no 21st. century to speak of, except in Russia and her “friendlies”. Go figure.
@Jorges – being a teacher day in day out is tough (Jeez my whole family are such, not me…) – keep up the lessons!
Thanks there, I appreciate being considered a teacher, at least a part-time “teacher” of sorts no ?
Sure wished I was more successfull with politicians though…
Bonbon, as a matter of fact I am most gratefull to all of the great Teachers I had, they taught me a lot, including the very strict Irish and British teachers I was lucky to have. Ruler-whacking strict okay ?
I payed attention all the time though and sharply focused on what they said to us students. I studied hard as my parents demanded. Even grandpas told me “You have no obligations other than to study hard”
I behaved well (mostly) and never ever got a ruler-whack.
So I felt very well protected from bullies which also did exist way back then.
I even judged my Teachers despite me being very young age.
But I always respected them and today I am very gratefull to them all.
Applause for my teachers !!
Habeck said Berlin was working on a new law to temporarily bring back up to 10 gigawatts of idle coal-fired power plants for up to two years; that would increase Germany’s dependence on coal for electricity generation by up to a third. “The situation is serious,” said Habeck. “It is obviously [Vladimir] Putin’s strategy to upset us, to drive prices upwards, and to divide us . . . We won’t allow this to happen.” 19 June FT
Coal plants require enormous amounts of coal. (Wiki)
A 1000 MWe coal plant uses 9000 tonnes of coal per day, equivalent to an entire train load (90 cars with 100 tonnes in each!).
Thus the cunning Habeck anti-Putin plan requires additional supplies of new coal to the tune of 9000 x 10 = 90,000 tons a day.
So,he needs 10×9000 tonnes freight train to deliver, and another 10 trains being loaded each day, so about 20 trains that do not exist yet.
So where is the source of this coal? Where are the freight trains? How many thousands of litres of diesel will they burn each day ?
The question of how to turn fairy tale ideas into reality always needs the application of This Means That.
Lapin, thanks for the precise input and analysis.
In a nutshell Lapin, Germans with Habeck are dead in the water will not even get to first base let alone score.
Reading all of this I am inclined to believe that besides ignorant fools these people are strongly suicidal. These is not the Green Party it is the War Party acting per their own agenda.
” Germany now wants G7 nations to backtrack on plan to stop financing overseas fossil fuel projects ”
Well, at least its a “backtrack”…
How about “backtracking” the whole shebang and embrace Russia as a business partner, buy their oil & gas etc etc etc ?
““It is obviously [Vladimir] Putin’s strategy to upset us, to drive prices upwards, and to divide us . . . ”
Complete reversal of cause and effect.
It wasn’t Putin’s idea to cancel NS2 and sanction Russia.
Putin didn’t drive up prices. The EU created a shortage and that has driven up prices.
Also, if Habeck is willing to bring back brown coal, why not just fire up the nuke plants again? Maybe because this might be an eye opener for Germans? It would be too logical?
Habeck is risible.
None of the “thinking” makes sense.
They are all grasping at straws, trying to keep some kind of narrative going long enough so that they can finally leave for their summer holidays.
I hope the Germans throw these knaves out on their asses in new federal elections.
Soaring gas bills triple Russia´s, and its mid-summer.
Can you imagine in mid-winter ?
What a Christmas lol…
All the money Russia makes won’t mean a damn thing if the west European economy disappears. So what if you have Euro’s then? If I was Russia I’d buying everything in sight that they need and don’t make.
Anybody with two brain cells to rub together can see there is no timely replacement for Russian fossil fuels in the EU. No, the Blue Fairy is not going to wave her magic wand and fix this problem.
Which then begs the question “What will Europe do?”
The answer is it will go on a war footing with all the attendant suppression of dissent. Sacrifice will be portrayed as patriotic, those who do not go along smiling will be portrayed as something quite different.
That is why the politicians must continue flogging this fairy tale. If they do not people will figure out their intent and act accordingly.
To my dear friends in Europe: I feel sorry for you but I do not share your pain. The United States and the Soviet Union gifted you freedom and you threw it in the toilet.
Yours was a very bright and special way of putting it short & sweet: …” there is no TIMELY replacement for Russian fossil fuels…” well said David, and I may ´borrow´ it from you in the future ! Cordially Jorge
Timely. Yes. And how about from the standpoint of ONTOLOGY?* i.e. Does a replacement to Russian oil exist somewhere on the planet?
*Ontology is the branch of philosophy that studies concepts such as existence, being, becoming, and reality.
Thank you very much for this! Answers the questions I had since your first piece on this blog. You are doing a great job. I hope you continue!
Thanks for you encouragement, comments like yours make the whole difference to me and keep me going in this very very very lonely task I have undertaken. Recently here I have been considered to be doing some sort of “teaching” of sorts. Well, hearing that also does me a lot of good you know ! Sure hope sooner rather than later politicians out there are learning something… Respectfull koala bear hug for you Midge !
Loyalty to Uncle $hmuel is not without it’s costs.
Probably already pointed out, and which probably you already know, wouldn’t the coal need to come from Russia?
A blends problem I was thinking about….I worked 10 years for Daimler Trucks North America….the Germs are very precision engineers. California and others are requiring many different “blends” of diesel. How does the input oil affect the refining process into diesel?
Along the same line, Joe Malarky is going to require gasoline to have an additional 5% of corn product in our gasoline, which will take a few years off the life of an engine. Does Europe do ethanol?
Re: nationalization….. back to Daimler, they are/were excited to do manufacturing in Russia. Those truck manufacturing plants, and all the part supply chains are very expensive (multiple billions) time consuming, and complicated to set up, perhaps more than even a pipeline, I dunno. But, the big autos kinda run Germany, I wonder how they would like it if Russia nationalized their stuff?
Does Europe do ethanol?, US, Brazil, Argentina do, but is a catch 22 situation as fertilizers come from Rusia/404 region, and those countries will use up any amount they can. Manufacturing in Rusia?, lost for good, another set of resources to be dedicated for such…
My understanding is that the US does CORN-ethanol while Argentina does SUGAR CANE-ethanol which is the same final ethyl alcohol true enough but with a very different environmental, social, and food security impact. Brazil does ALCO-nafta or GASO-nafta which is a mixture of the two. Europe does not do any ethanol mixing with any fuels that I know of.
Argentina (and Brazil) corn production has increased substantially, but there is an important competition with its needs for animal feed, or direct export to China, and soon to the rest of Latin America. The point is, EU won´t get neither green hidrogen or alcohol or biodiesel from US or the south, there is not much to spare…
How America is able to gag ,sodomize then rip out Germany’s soul show’s the level of infiltration/infestation.
The traitors in Germany like green goddess Annalena Bareback attended finishing schools in America.
The CIA invested a good amount into this treasonous bar-steward , much like they owned Obama’s arse.
Between her and the unelected brass Ursula Von der Leach, the Cee Aye Eh have two good Pro’s who take orders from them.
Germans need to quickly grasp the nettle and arrest the folk pushing Russia bad, elect Mr Schroeder as a makeshift short term Svengali and hope that he can persuade Russia to forgive their stupidity. As a show of good faith the US/CIA funded fake Greens and current Government lackeys be removed from public office and remain under house arrest while a special investigator is appointed to investigate corruption and foreign influence in the political, spy, business and msm sectors.
Good work Jorge.
Thanks again for your encouragement WTFUD
Good, creative, thoughtfull and achieving post of yours.
I had not thought of but fully agree with the idea of having Germans electing Mr. Schroeder as a way to mend the relations with Russia. Also, above please scroll up and find Prof. Michael Hudson´s post with thoughts and agreement regarding Europe, Germany and US-led NATO.
Firm hand shake yet again WTFUD !
The high and growing level of US Dollar investments into western Europe is a topic that continues to baffle me: The Europeans who sell out, receive Dollars that lose their value each year and will now lose value even faster…the actions of the US in destroying the very European industry in which they have poured so much investment…and disabling the real incomes and purchasing power of European consumers is counter-intuitive. Cui Bono? To grow an economy you need to apply ‘The Multiplier’ – seed capital that generates further growth…Instead, QE just gave the banksters more to play with.
Jorge, your articles stimulated me to look through my own archives at past projects in which i was involved. Here is a good summary of the problems of creating a blend which is required at the downstream end.
Unleaded petrol – a Makers reply.
The ST reported 16.10.1983 that the Humber Refinery “can already produce lead-free petrol suitable for all cars”
Readers need to be aware that there is a difference between producing low-lead and lead-free petrols. The position is this:
We are able to produce some low-lead petrol (0.15g per litre, compared to the typical 0.4g per litre used in Britain.
We could also produce limited quantities of unleaded petrol, but this would be 2 star, an octane rating suitable for only a small proportion of British cars. We could produce only insignificant amounts of unleaded 4 star petrol, certainly not in commercial quantities.
With a moderate amount of modifications to our existing facilities (currently under way) we shall be able in future, to switch all of our Humber petrol production to low lead, as required by the government. We shall also eventually be able to produce all of our petrol as unleaded low-octane 2 star, should that be required.
But im afraid there is no question of our being able to produce anything like commercial quantities of petrol with no lead and a high-octane rating – certainly not now, and not in the future,without substantial and expensive changes.
HK Bowden MD Conoco Ltd
This comment gives a good insight into the added cost and time and effort needed to find the correct blends in the face of a government green diktat at the time.
The solution to the problem of meeting government regulations on lead in fuels plus maintaining octane as reported to me by a refinery in Fawley, came in the form of chemical products (which had hitherto been dumped in British rivers or into the North Sea being blended in the refineries, so the lead content could be further removed but octane levels boosted with even more toxic toluene amongst other horrible chemicals. So this was a win-win situation for the refineries who received dumped chemicals at low cost and the chemicals producers who could now relax as it was the motorist who was now using the car as the waste incinerator for the added toxic chemicals….
…and a win-win situation for governments around Europe who could then wag their fingers at the motorist and penalise him for running a dirty engine…
I am glad to hear my articles may have partly provoked you recalling your own down-to-earth research of yesteryear. You thusly have proven that the essence of the matter has not changed and will not change. That´s why in the article above I mention that …” Refining and chemical processing are a key upstream sector, highly capital-intensive, thick skin required yet delicate & tricky, and also a very ugly business…” You could expand a thing or two about that, couldn´t you Original Analyst ?
Best for you from Jorge
I recall one other project where i was involved in Customer Satisfaction Surveys for Esso, BP and Shell. The aim was to placate angry customers and show that the supplier cared. The ‘upset’ customers that the consultants had to approach, numbered about 10% of the client base, which is quite high We investigated in depth, the actual complaint(s) as well as the nature of the dislocation that the supply-failure had caused.
I recall some of the most extreme cases: a customer received a delivery of processed chemical but then gate security staff noted that the tanker had a cap which had been closed using a brick. The driver was refused entry to the facility but the oil company refused to redeliver. Customers had to fund purchases in advance and then expected the oil majors to deliver on time but often the supply was rationed and this created chaos in fulfilling the needs of process plants own customers. Blends delivered were of inconsistent quality, or sudden changes occurred, resulting in inconsistent quality in the processing of plastics, whereby either the converter had to remake the batch (if he was ethical) , or he delivered hoping for the best…and received complaints from his own customers that there was far too high a wastage when selecting the material that was suitable for further processing. At each stage within the supply chain, the principle of Just-In-Time delivery created chaos as soon as there was a disruption caused by quality failures or supply delays. I mean by all this, such issues were ongoing over many years.
Another research involved Mobil who had an exemplary record for high quality of plastic films, backed up by outstanding customer service. Supporting customers however, meant that faulty batches were redelivered and this reduced margins. My understand was that this was the reason why a financially stronger partner then took over Mobils film division. But then the quality deteriorated. Customers complained that the film had wrinkles, folds, holes, the surface had yellow patches or streaks…so for example a book printer needed clear film for a print run of paperbacks but the rolls of film were so faulty that thousands of copies of books had to be pulped. Whilst in the past, such issues were rectified, the new owners simply could not care less and in fact informed the customers that they had to make do with whatever was supplied. The converters were so incensed by the arrogance of the oil major that i received an earfull from Swedish, German and Belgian Converters for example who stated categorically they would never again work with US based companies. Some irate customers had then looked around for alternative suppliers and found perfect partners in Turkey and Iran, where the principle of good customer support still exists (the way it used to be in the USA). A vast amount of business was then lost to the US as Iran and Turkey received more orders. That was in the mid 1980s.
So indeed, there is a lot of costly and time consuming R&D needed each time a new blend is created or to test for consistency and if the oil majors dont do their bit, the rest of the supply chain is in total chaos.
Not good…if the politicians fail to do what is expected of them, one should be able to expect that industrial management would raise their voices…but as you say yourself…there is just …silence…
The top two oil refining companies worldwide are Chinese. No European company is in the top 10. Europe lacks the IP and technology to pull off a fast conversion or perhaps any conversion.
Percy, your input is most interesting !
It could be of great advantage for everyone if you could expand more or share with us any possible details.
No names though, just for example as right above your post a most helpfull Original Analyst has presented concrete first-hand cases which clearly illustrate to the skeptics and/or non-technical folks what we all agree upon and try to explain to others in relation to the lots of
” … costly and time consuming R&D needed each time a new blend is created or to test for consistency ”
Thank you Jorge for such a great series on the oil situation in Europe. Each time I read your postings I learn something new, plus your sense of humor adds to the experience. I really have to shake my head in disbelief at how stupid and short sighted the Europeans are, especially Germany. Thank you much Jorge, you’re a very patient and wonderful teacher.
Your very nicely-worded acknowledgement means a lot to me, and also many thanks for pointing out my (supposed) teachings skills, ehem cof cof. The truth is I am no teacher and have no teaching experience whatsoever… but in view of circumstances and of what´s at stake I try very hard as best I can to educate others a bit, mostly hoping that the word gets to the politicians in charge, something which finally seems to be happening at the European Parliament as some few MEPs have contacted me requesting copies of my articles, etc. Because quite frankly Catherine there is almost no time left even if the West reverses 180 degrees its attitude towards Russia. The problem now has become that Russia is fed up, DONE with the West, sick and tired of their constant cheating and their “non agreement-capable” nature per Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Still, thanks for your encouragement Catherine and persistence in reading my articles. Cordially Jorge
Greens. The irony that they declare themselves the morally superior. Yet what are their policies? Do they oppose GMO food, excess pesticides, plastic pollution? No as corporations already profit form these. Instead they offer climate change despite the science being shaky and their solutions cannot possibly work. Why then? As their corporate backers are the ones wanting the billions in taxpayer subsidies for their idiot green schemes.
What about war? Lets look to woke Europe, woke America and woke Australia, all their Greens are itching for war, this alone suggests they have nothing in common with the older Left. They are shills for the establishment, the same pigs in lipstick. The West is doomed.
Organic, the Green moral high-ground…. hmmmm.
Organic, you have just inspired me for the topic to be discussed in my next article. Thank YOU.
All readers / posters / commentariati please feel free to propose additional topics anytime.
Respectfull koala bear hug for ya all
Many readers will no doubt be interested as to why the EU is so anti-Russian over the issue of Russian gas. The explanation is quite simple. All the euro states are fanatically hostile to Russia and have no agency. Europe as a whole is not a sovereign bloc but is ruled by the US. In every respect the EU is politically, militarily, economically, and culturally in thrall to the trans-Atlantic hegemon. Since 1945, and even before, the US has been slowly eroding the independence of its western ‘allies’. The social, legal, political, and economical institutions of the countries and societies inside the Euro-Atlantic zone have not only been in the process of standardizing, but the have become more and more similar to those of the US. The security structures of these states have become more and more integrated with that of the US. Their criminal and airport data bases are being networked to those in the US. Their security platforms and policies are being reformed to mimic those of the US; and US domination over their security structures is manifest.
The elites of various fields, from politics and academia, to finance and security, in the EU-Atlantic Zone are all more and more prone to visit and train in the US or in US programmes in some manner or other.
The Europeans have been raised and socialized with this as a part of their worldview. In many instances this is not a normal part of the status quo for them, but also it is INVISBLE to them. Suffice it to say that the American Empire and occupation of Europe is manifest and seems likely to be maintained. Herewith some of the traitors.
Lord Haw-Haw – UK
Lord Haw-Haw was a nickname applied to William Joyce, who broadcast Nazi propaganda to the UK from Germany during the Second World War. The broadcasts opened with “Germany calling, Germany calling”, spoken in an affected upper-class English accent.
Marshal Petain – France
Ex-war hero of the Battle of Verdun. Sold out France to German occupation was tried and was about to be executed when De Gaulle intervened and his was imprisoned for life – died in Prison.
Vidkun Quisling – Norway
Inveterate Nazi who collaborated with Nazi Germany, arrested, imprisoned and executed by firing squad 1945.
Donald Duck, if you were correct, the problem is much worse and truly unsolvable and Europe will soon vanish from the face of planet Earth. Donald, f you were correct, Europeans would be fully schizofrenic. Europe cannot 50% marry, live with, partner up, depend upon, and have many children with Russia and with the other 50% hate, divorce, let the children starve and freeze while stabbing in the back the very same commodities-rich, intellectually-powerfull, militarily-unbeatable at least in its own back yard… and just in case über nuclear power Russia with hypersonic vectors up and running. It´d be madness, it certainly is madness.
NATO should not be in charge of anything.
Europeans must be in charge of Europe soon enough respecting their own best interests, not the US Anglo-Saxon axis. Brexit made things clear in that sense at least.
I still trust that European problems are still a solvable — yet violent — political matter that requires a 180 pivot to embrace Russia as Europe should have done all along. Europeans must wake up though, otherwise…
A mentality or approach characterized by inconsistent or contradictory elements.
A long-term mental disorder of a type involving a breakdown in the relation between thought, emotion, and behaviour, leading to faulty perception, inappropriate actions and feelings, withdrawal from reality and personal relationships into fantasy and delusion, and a sense of mental fragmentation.
A serious mental disorder in which people interpret reality abnormally. Schizophrenia may result in some combination of hallucinations, delusions, and extremely disordered thinking and behavior that impairs daily functioning, and can be disabling.
Thank you again, dear Jorge, for another brilliant analysis. Your writing style is very good an, because you make these topics really interesting and easy to understand.
You have explained the intricate details and important aspects of the disastrous EU sanctions. Just learning what it takes to phase out the Russian oil and gas is alarming. All the processes and outcomes which you have outlined are massively complex and practically impossible to achieve.
The resulting catastrophic consequences of these sanctions should be obvious to anybody possessing just a bit of common sense.
But the EU leaders are stupid. They cannot grasp these realities. Plus, they hate Russia so much that they don’t even want to think of the hardships that will follow. They don’t care at all what will happen.
Germany admitted that their gas supplies would last only 2.5 months and then they will have empty storage terminals. So, that already sums this situation pretty well – it will be a disaster.
As you say, I might have explained the very complex and arid European energy problems at hand reasonably well to a very broad and non-technical audience. I also tried to make it lively and colorfull with a ´rare´ and very spontaneous style which includes sarcasm and sense of humor to thusly capture the readers attention and focus — sometimes by repetition — regarding the outstanding shortfalls of this conundrum. Let´s admit that this topic is difficult to follow, aprehend and sink in enough. And I certainly hope to have at least partially succeeded in this very lonely endeavor I have undertaken with no self-interest nor any obligation from or to anyone. I wish this to be true from the very deep bottom of my soul, with one hand on my heart and the other on my brain.
But Kate, my writing capabilities are not anywhere near close to be able to find the words with which to thank you personally for such an elaborate description of how I might have reached regular people and most specially — or so it seems — politicians and decision-makers at large. I´m not even sure I could convey to you how much of a difference you have made even if I were physically in front of you right now. Kate, your words justify my effort manyfold. Thank you Kate, thank you gal.
Kate please — and every other poster reading this right now for that matter — do find the time to also read my comment below made to Donald Duck.
This “The Saker” article has been RE-published by ´The Automatic Earth´ at https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2022/06/debt-rattle-june-27-2022/
I’ve been amazed how low wind energy production Germany has had during the spring and early stage of summer. Though they have 64,3 GW capacity the production has been mostly between 1 GW at lowest level and 10 GW at highest. Actually solar production (capacity of 59,4 GW) has been on average better and far more easier to predict.
From COVID year 2020 it has been confirmed that “Energie Wende” just don’t work. With exception of relatively small numbers of days Germans needed 30-50% of their electricity using coal, gas or nuclear energy. Thanks to their boneheaded energy choices the last one has been lost and whole palet of Green Germany is ridiculed by growing use of coal.
Mats, your precise input is most welcome.
My take though is that renewables do not help without non-renewables backstop and — at least in Europe — thus require humongous loads of Russian nat-gas, oil, coal, minerals and commodities. For example, the wind turbines that you mention require thousands of tons of nickel and rare earths to manufacture. Any such large structures are also moved and erected with Russian fuel-powered equipment. Fossil fuels transportation costs all around. Solar energy requires silver beyond belief which in turn requires LOTS of non.renewables.
When renewables in large quantities are added to the electrical grid, costs go up – not down — as they have to be backstopped by thermal plants that today run on Russian fuels. “The more renewables you add, the more natural gas you need”.
The EU is back to coal.
Great strategy, excellent.
“I think that most people have a good sense for what is currently at stake.”
Not really, it´d be 100 times worse than what most people think it could get to be. Russia is DONE fed up sick and tired of the “agreement non-capable” West
” But we also can’t act as though everything is just fine.”
Nope, everything is not “just fine” Herr Habeck and it will to be unbearable by Christmas 2022
Food for thought no ?
Now the French start to feel the pinch…
Sorry to bother you, but the importance of this news is earth shattering! Robert Habeck has found a solution to the problems you elucidate on.
…””I have drastically reduced the amount of time I spend in the shower, but I am a poor example. As a minister, I earn a salary that others can only dream of. Plus, I come home late, get up at 6 a.m., and am out of the house again by 7. With such a schedule, it’s not necessary to heat in winter. For people working from home, retirees with small pensions, and families, it is a different story.
“My counterpart from the Netherlands recently told me proudly that they had launched a campaign intended to cut the average showering time from 10 minutes to five. I had to laugh. I have never showered for five minutes in my life. I shower quickly,” he said. “…
These Weiner snitzels have lost it.
Have a pleasant week.
Marcellus, no bother, ever. Just keep your input coming in, it always helps.
” The end of European colonial powers & the tyranny of physics ”
“Europe does not have any LNG terminals.”
Maybe in an alternate universe?
Import terminals in Europe as of April 2022:
– Spain: 6
– France: 4
– Italy: 3
– United Kingdom: 3
– Belgium: 1
– Netherlands: 1
– Portugal: 1
– Greece: 1
– Lithuania: 1
– Croatia: 1
– Poland: 1
– Malta: 1
Number of operational and planned liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals in Europe as of April 2022, by country
Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) facilities in the EU
“Algeria may sell “some” little nat-gas to Europe if it had open volume space available in pipeline and only to Southern Spain.”
Only to Spain? What about Italy? Do you know Italy has natural gas pipelines?
ROME, April 11 (Reuters) – Italy clinched an agreement on Monday to ramp up gas imports from Algeria by around 40% in its first major deal to find alternative supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Italy to get more gas from Algeria, foreign minister says
Italy clinches gas deal with Algeria to temper Russian reliance
The costly future:
EU Studies Spain-Italy Gas Pipeline To Cut Russian Dependence
Don Quijote, your points are well taken. That´d be a couple of “gotcha´s” on your part. Touché.
But after 10 articles and more than 50,000 words on this topic I am perfectly happy with such average in this calibre of “mistakes”
True enough, Europe does have some very few LNG terminals and I did not mention. But Germany has none which was my point, and nearby Poland has only 1 (one) and tiny at that. Central Europe has NONE either, of course. So I made the mistake of confusing the two allright. Sorry, my bad. Still, Germany and Poland are most seriously exposed, so much so that Habeck doesn´t even mention the topic except very occasionally. Basically, he fast-tracked the approval of the the LNG Acceleration Act to favor in every possible way the construction of fully unnecessary and super-costly Liquefied Natural Gas terminals in detriment of many other much needed infrastructures so as to eventually buy — in 2 years time at the earliest — über-expensive LNG from the USA which is really the Master Pupeteer behind this anti-Europe Master Plan
So… does having some peppered LNG terminals around Club Med countries make ANY difference Don Quijote regarding the terminal topic at hand ? Aren´t these LNG terminals already maxxed out ? Because in that case it matters not much to have any, correct ? The European energy crisis is alive and kicking even with these few LNG terminals which in the best of cases have always been a VERY expensive nuisance, not a solution of any sort. So, what percentage of Europe nat-gas needs could these LNG terminals you mention cover for ?
Regarding Italy, I reckon you also got me there but still, volumes are already maxxed out and still cover for very little of actual requirements. And a 40% Algerian nat-gas supplies future increase to Italy (when, exactly ?) does not change what Italy will be facing come winter, most specially up North, you know that, don´t you ?
“ France wants to replace Russian oil with oil from Venezuela and Iran ”.
Good luck with that !!!!!
Besides all of the geo-political / sanctions / etc etc etc problems at hand — and MUCH higher prices included — the ignorant fools in charge should be told in a low whispering voice to their ears that they will NEVER EVER distill the diesel that Europe requires from either Venezuelan or Iranian oils as both heavy sour.
Does anybody reading this have any French connections ?
Please have them read this series of “The Saker” articles ASAP.
Chemical giant BASF (Germany) may close plant due to gas “shortage of cheap and abundant Russian natural gas”
Tom Luongo, who is a chemist, made the point that refineries are built for the feedstock they will use and can only be tweaked so far to use a slightly different feedstock. A refinery that is built for heavy sour crude is never going to be a refinery for light sweet crude.
I true that 100%, so go figure what the French are now trying to do.
Is it now clearer to everybody why I have called EU politicians “ignorant fools” ?
What you mention JJHW is the exact reason behind my approx. 10 (ten) articles published right here in “The Saker” specifically addressing the HUGE and terminal problem coming to Europe much sooner rather than later in 2022. Christmas in Europe will be hellish.
Keep your input coming JJHW
European ‘general energy collapse’.
Not me saying this, just check the source.