G7 Joint Communique – yet another exercise in make-believe

I won’t divulge into the full text (which you can read @ https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/06/08/g-7-leaders-declaration), but here is the “foreign policy” segment, dealing with the Ukraine: (stress added)

Finding a Solution to the Conflict in Ukraine

We reiterate our condemnation of the illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula by the Russian Federation and reaffirm our policy of its non-recognition.

We reiterate our full support for the efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the framework of the Normandy format and the Trilateral Contact Group. We welcome the OSCE’s key role in finding a peaceful solution. We call on all sides to fully implement the Minsk agreements including the Package of Measures for their implementation signed on 12 February 2015 in Minsk, through the established Trilateral Contact Group and the four working groups. We are concerned by the recent increase in fighting along the line of contact; we renew our call to all sides to fully respect and implement the ceasefire and withdraw heavy weapons. We recall that the duration of sanctions should be clearly linked to Russia’s complete implementation of the Minsk agreements and respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty. They can be rolled back when Russia meets these commitments. However, we also stand ready to take further restrictive measures in order to increase cost on Russia should its actions so require. We expect Russia to stop trans-border support of separatist forces and to use its considerable influence over the separatists to meet their Minsk commitments in full.

We commend and support the steps the Ukrainian government is taking to implement comprehensive structural reforms and urge the Ukrainian leadership to decisively continue the necessary fundamental transformation in line with IMF and EU commitments. We reaffirm our commitment to working together with the international financial institutions and other partners to provide financial and technical support as Ukraine moves forward with its transformation. We ask the G7 Ambassadors in Kiev to establish a Ukraine support group. Its task will be to advance Ukraine´s economic reform process through coordinated advice and assistance.

It is pretty evident to me that this statement is self-contradictory.  Consider this:

1) The Novorussians have done everything which M2A demanded of them.  Not only have they fully withdrawn all their heavy weapons, they have even drafted a proposal for local elections and sent it to the junta in Kiev.

2) The Ukronazis have violated all the provisions of M2A including the very first one: withdrawing their heavy weapons.

3) Russia is not even a party to the conflict but in spite of that she has been arguing for the full implantation of M2A (if only because they are so favorable to Novorussia and Russia)

4) In contrast, the Ukronazi junta in Kiev has not stooped its bellicose rhetoric even for a single day.

5) The sanctions on Russia have totally failed: they failed to meaningfully affect the Russian economy and they have only solidified the support of the Russian population for Vladimir Putin.

And yet, in spite of these undeniable acts, all the leaders of the G7 agreed to that ridiculous communique.  What does this show?

I think that they are truly out of touch with reality and this joint communique sounds more like an incantation, a mantra, than like a workable plan with some chance of achieving a real-world result.

I have said it many times here, Russians don’t believe in threats.  In the Russian culture, if you are strong, you never make threats (because you don’t have to), and if you are making threats – that is because you are weak.  Now imagine how the Russians will react to half-baked and vapid threats like “we stand ready to…”.  They will laugh and shake their heads in disgust and total contempt.

This is, by the way, something I hear a lot of Russian political figures saying: that the intellectually quality of American officials has fallen dramatically,  In the past, the Russians did not often like US officials, but they never had contempt for them either.  Now this is the single most frequent comment I hear – the disgust with the total lack of professionalism of the US officials.  As for the EU, the Russians now see it as a voiceless colony of the USA not even capable of formulating an independent opinion or stand up for its national interests.

The sad – and scary – reality is that Russia has nobody to speak to any more.  Literally.  Not a single western leader is worth even speaking to.  They are either deluded, or clueless, or spineless.  Usually all of the above.  Think about it yourself: if you were Lavrov or Putin – whom would you chose to talk to in the West?

Exactly.  There is *nobody* left at all worth talking to.  Nobody.

If it wasn’t for the availability of nuclear weapons in the USA, UK and France – this would all be very funny.  Alas, these non-entities can still probably muster the brainpower to press the button, and this is why Russia has to be so careful.  The normal theory of deterrence always assumes a “rational actor”.  But what do you do when the other side has basically “gone fishing” and is it not capable of discerning reality anymore?

The Saker

The Essential Saker: from the trenches of the emerging multipolar world