The dramatic developments in Syria have somewhat overshadowed the events in Nazi-occupied Ukraine. True, nothing truly ‘major’ has happened there, but that in itself is a major development and a case of “no news is good news”.
Remember how close we were to a Ukronazi attack just a few months or weeks ago?
That attack never materialized.
This is, I submit, major news and something which most of us did not dare hope for. After all, the Ukronazis had assembled a very large (some would say “bloated”) force all along the line of contact, the rhetoric out of Kiev was even worse than usual and all the signs were that the junta was poised to attack any day. Then two things happened.
First, it is pretty clear that Merkel and Hollande told Poroshenko that if he launched yet another attack he would most likely be defeated and that they could not rescue him with a “Minsk 3”.
Second, US and Ukrainian military analyst probably told Poroshenko that the Ukronazi military simply did not have what it takes to defeat the Novorussians. Translated in political terms, that meant that a junta attack on the Donbass would not be strong enough to force Russia to intervene directly and openly, and that just made the entire exercise futile.
[Sidebar and caveat: since we are dealing with maniacal and hate-driven individuals, we have to assume that they are capable of, quite literally, anything at any time. From blowing up a Ukrainian power station to launching a “reconquest” of Crimea. All I am saying is that so far no attack has materialized. I am making no claims about the future. In fact, I fully expect the Nazi regime in Kiev to go down in a last big orgy of violence].
If anything, the amazing effectiveness of a really small Russian Air Force contingent in Syria (not to mention cruise missile attacks) probably convinced even the most delusional Ukronazi that they were not fighting the Russian military in the Donbass, because if they were the war would be over in 24 hours.
Predictably, the military (and economic!) impotence of the junta triggered a political “compensatory reaction” which manifested itself in a series of amazingly dumb and self-defeating moves: first the Right Sector thugs closed down the border with Crimea (thereby successfully concealing a petty mobster war for the profits generated by the imposition of transit/import/export taxes as a “patriotic” move). And then, not to be undone by his Nazi allies, Poroshenko banned all Russian carriers from flying in Ukrainian airspace. Some have said that such moves were hurting the Ukrainian economy. Well, while this is obviously true, I would also argue that it makes no difference to an economy which is already in free-fall anyway. The junta basically doesn’t care anymore about the Ukronazi economy simply because it is beyond rescue.
It sure looks to me like the Ukronazis are ‘coasting’, like a car which has run out of gas. Yes, there is still a momentum making it move further, but no more energy.
The AngloZionist Empire
My feeling is that the Empire is rapidly losing interest in the entire Ukrainian plan. Remember what started it all? A desire to “punish Russia” for the fact that she stopped the imminent US attack on Syria. And now, instead of punishing Russia, the US is desperately trying to retain some kind of grip on the entire Middle-East. Of course, there is always hell to pay for stupid political decisions, but Obama & Co. clearly hoped that it would not happen or, if it did, it would happen somewhere far down the line. Turns out that payday is today.
Furthermore, consider this: while the US definitely triggered the Ukrainian crisis, they never saw the Syrian crisis coming and, as a result, they are not scrambling to come up with some kind of response. I very much doubt that the US will impose a no-fly zone over any part of Syria, if only because Russia will never allow a UNSC Resolution to authorize that (the Russians still remember how a no-fly zone Resolution ended up in NATO bombing Libya). Could the USA do so *without* a UNSC Resolution? Maybe, but that would be extremely dangerous both politically and militarily.
There are rumors that the US is trying to shape some kind of force with the Kurds to take Raqqa. Maybe, but I don’t see the US sending boots on the ground so any such operation could easily end up with the Kurds working with the Syrians and Iranians.
My personal feeling is that IF the Syrian army is really successful and, for example, manages to free Aleppo (which is currently encircled) then the “friends of Syria” will immediately ask for a “peace conference” à la Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 to save al-Qaeda/ISIS from a total defeat. Remember how the Empire negotiated with the Bosnian Serbs without speaking them? Or how the Ukronazis are now supposed to speak with the Novorussians, but never do so? This time around, the AngloZionists will probably try to organized a conference in which they will try to get the Russians to negotiate on behalf of the Syrians or, failing that, have Syrian government delegation which would not include Assad personally. I sure hope that this time around Russia will not allow such utter nonsense to take place. In fact, I hope that the Russians launch their OWN peace conference which would invite the Syrian government, of course, but also Iran (and Iraq). That would be far more productive.
Bottom line: if the terrorists lose too badly – expect a AngloZionist diplomatic push to rescue them from total defeat.
What that means for the junta in Kiev is that Uncle Sam is scrambling with a much more important crisis than the civil war in the Ukraine. Not only that, but Uncle Sam might have to sit down the the Russians and “play nice”. Even more important is the fact that the US military will now have to put a lot of effort into monitoring the situation in the entire Middle-East and be prepared for any contingencies. So while all sorts of “cooperative” activities between the US and Banderastan will continue, if only for political reasons, the real focus of US military efforts will be elsewhere.
The US colony of Europe
Well, the Europeans are still as clueless as always. Add to this the refugee crisis and it becomes obvious that they have no stomach for a major confrontation with Russia. Yes, I know, the EU Parliament is still busy issuing various threats (the latest one being over the Russian intervention in Syria!), but the reality is that blowing hot air is all that the Europeans are capable of. That, and really dumb economic decisions, such as the Polish moves to stop purchasing Russian gas (I will post an article about that fiasco soon).
There is a lot of disappointment in Kiev with the EU and this is understandable: the EU did promise a lot, but it delivered nothing, nothing at all (except a few “gay pride” parades). The UK delivered a few old APCs, the Poles and Lithuanians delivered a lot of hot air and Germany and France basically told Poroshenko to “cool it”. Nothing much for a Europe which made it sound like the Ukraine would join the EU in the near future. Poroshenko is now so desperate over it all that he had to declare that the EU “could not survive” without the Ukraine.
By all accounts, the pressure is building on Hollande and Merkel to get something done in regards to Russia as both the German and French economy are directly suffering form the (illegal) sanctions the EU introduced against Russia. And yet, since the US will never allow any sanctions to be lifted, I don’t expect the EU leaders do take any action soon. And since no western politician can be expected to admit that he/she was wrong, I don’t expect any public u-turn by anybody in Europe. But what we might see is a slow erosion of the anti-Russian camp combined with a equally slow decrease of “love” for the Nazi occupied Ukraine and the junta which runs it.
Conclusion: a shifting center of gravity
The war in the Ukraine is really only a battle in a much larger war between Russia and the USA and, I would argue, to civilizational and developmental models. As in any battle/war the center of gravity has now shifted from the Ukraine to Syria and the entire Ukrainian theater is now becoming what the Russians refer to as a “battle of local significance”. Of course, this can also rapidly change again. For example, if the current Syrian army offensive (which, by Russian accounts, is less than spectacular) gets bogged down into positional/trench warfare again, or if, say there is an uprising in Odessa or a coup in Kiev, then the center of gravity will shift right back to the Ukraine. But right now the Ukraine is a sideshow to the “main action” in Syria. That is very bad news for the junta as time is most definitely not on the Nazi side and every passing day makes the situation of the Nazi-occupied Ukraine even worse. In contrast, Russia can wait, even for a long time.
As I have said that many times here, Russia needs peace (in the sense of absence of a major war) more than anything else as every passing day now make the USA (and their allies) weaker and Russia (and her allies) stronger: when time is on your side, you want to use that time to your biggest advantage. The way Russia waited until everything lined up before intervening in Syria is a good example of the importance of “playing the clock” as the expression goes in the world of chess.
Finally, I also notice with a mix of amazement and delight that in many comments sections of the Internet Putin is becoming more and more respected, if not always liked. Even those who dislike him seem to admit that he is a brilliant player and a great statesman, especially in contrast to Obama who seems to be weak, clueless, impotent and generally pathetic. While, in a way, this is dangerous as it can push Obama to prove that he is a “real man” and “tougher than Putin” and make him do something really stupid, it is also the proof that slowly but surely the demonization of Putin by the western propaganda machine is having a hard time and that the Internet is having its effect on the public opinion.
Just an anecdote in conclusion: a fried of my wife (male, White, Southern Baptism, NRA member, US patriot) watched Putin’s speech at the UN and told her that “Putin sounds more like a defender of US values than any of our politicians“. Not only do I fully agree with him, but I am amazed that such a typical TV-watching “loyal American” would openly say that. This shows the level of disgust so many people in the USA have for those who rule over them.
As for the UK, according to a recent poll, 71% of Britons support the Russian operation in Syria.
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