The Armenian-Azerbaijani war, which started on September 27, continues in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region despite international diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict. Offensive operations of Azerbaijani forces continue at the same time as the Azerbaijani government claims that it is committed to the ceasefire regime. The first humanitarian ceasefire entered force in Karabakh on October 10 and collapsed on the next day, while the second one started on October 18 with the same result. The Armenian side also insists that it is committed to the ceasefire while simultaneously conducting counter-attacks against the advancing Azerbaijani forces.
For the Armenian side, the situation is further complicated by the fact that the current Armenian leadership is not ready to (or does not want to) employ all of its means and forces to fight back the Azerbaijani advance. Instead of this, Armenian forces involved in the conflict are limited to those of the Nagorno-Karakbah Republic.
The government of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has so far limited its support to Karabakh to supplying weapons, sending volunteers (instead of regular forces), complaining in the media and calling on other countries to recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic as an independent state, while Armenia itself has made no steps in this direction.
As of October 19, the situation on the frontline demonstrates that the Azerbaijani-Turkish side has been slowly but steadily taking an upper hand in the war. Azerbaijani forces have achieved a series of tactical successes in the northern and southern part of the region, capturing two dozen small towns and villages. The most important of them are Fuzuli, Jabrayl, Hadrut, Madaghis and Talish. Azerbaijani forces also advanced in the direction of the Khudaferin Reservoir.
Over the past few days, especially heavy clashes were taking place near the town of Hadrut, from which Armenian forces withdrew after Azerbaijan took control of the surrounding heights. Fuzuli experienced a similar fate as the Hadrut heights in fact overlook its countryside as well. The Azerbaijani military extensively uses its advantage in air, artillery and manpower. The advance is also supported by militant groups deployed by Turkey from the northwest of Syria, Turkish special forces and specialists (especially in the field of EW operations, intelligence and air domain warfare).
These factors, especially the air dominance, allowed Azerbaijan to deliver notable damage to Armenian forces destroying multiple pieces of their military equipment, destroying fortified positions and manpower. The outdated air defense forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic appeared to be unable to deal with the threat from Azerbaijani military aircraft, while Armenia also seems to be unable to or has no political to will to employ its air defense. Just recently, on October 17, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry released a video of strikes on a S-300 system in Armenia.
At the same time, the Azerbaijani military conducts intense strikes on civilian infrastructure in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Despite the public claims of the Azerbaijani leadership that the conflict has no ethnic grounds and that there is no threat to the Armenian population, in fact, Baku seeks to not only dismantle the self-proclaimed Armenian state, but also to remove Armenians from this territory. The Armenian side responds in a similar manner regularly shelling settlements and towns in Azerbaijan. While some of these strikes may be considered as accidental, as Armenian sources claim, the recent strikes on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja with ballistic missiles are for sure not an accident. According to Azerbaijani authorities, 13 civilians were killed and more than 40 others were injured in the attack on the city. The strike was likely conducted with the Soviet R-17 Elbrus tactical ballistic missile complex, which is in service with Karabakh forces.
It is likely that the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc will develop its advance further along the Iranian border aiming for the towns of Qobadli and Zengilan. For Azerbaijan, it will be profitable to extend the frontline because it will allow it to use its advantage in air power and manpower. Meanwhile, the terrain in this part of the region is less complex than that in the center or the north. In the event of success, such an advance will allow Azerbaijan to undermine the entire southern flank of Armenian forces deployed in Stepankert and Shusha. This will also create a threat of cutting off the so-called Lachin corridor, a mountain pass within the de jure borders of Azerbaijan, forming the shortest route between Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh. Another direction of the possible advance is Martakert and Agdam. Nonetheless, in this case, even if Azerbaijani forces achieve a success there, a further advance will be more complicated due to the more complex terrain.
The humanitarian ceasefire announced on October 17 seems like another attempt of the Minsk group, led by France, Russia and the United States, to de-escalate the conflict. Nonetheless, the position of the current Armenian government, which was for years undermining its relations with Russia, and the hardcore posture of Azerbaijan and Turkey that have already felt the flavour of potential military victory will likely not allow the parties involved to find a ‘constructive’ solution of the situation. Thus, Ankara and Baku will continue demanding a full surrender of Armenia over the Karabakh question, which the Armenian government (even if it wants to do so) cannot accept because this will lead to the immediate collapse of the Pashinyan regime and instability inside Armenia itself.
It has been obvious for a while that Pashinyan wants Nagorno Karabakh to fall. The only explanation of that is that he wants to blame it on Russia and, freed of the territorial dispute, join NATO. And this also means that
1. Russia should have intervened to stop the war from happening at all in its own interests.
2. The contention that Russia needed to teach Pashinyan a lesson was infantile and played right into his hands.
Of course it does. That is the only way their entire campaign makes sense. Compelling a refugee exodus into Armenia serves these purposes:
1. Hastens the collapse of the Nagorno Karabakh defences by clogging supply routes with refugees and demoralising the defenders, leaving them with nothing to defend.
2. Prevents any chance of a guerrilla war afterwards. No guerrilla war if there aren’t any Armenians to conduct it.
3. Allows Sultan Erdogan to settle Idlibistani jihadi headchoppers as colonists in the recaptured areas, just as he did Uighurs in Jisr al Shughour.
The attacks on civilian population centres and the mutilation and murder of prisoners is to achieve the same end.
No it will not.
1. Did defeat lead to the collapse of the Ukranazi coup regime?
2. Did defeat lead to the collapse of the Georgia anti Russia regime?
3. Pashinyan will merely blame Russia, say that NATO would guarantee Armenia’s security, exit CSTO and join NATO.
All perfectly scripted and predictable by anyone except the Greatest Geopolitical Grandmaster Genius The Galaxy Has Ever Seen.
That depends on why the empire wants the headchoppers settled at Gharabagh. Is it to threaten Russia? Or Iran?
Russia took no action to stop any of this, which to me means orders came down from Zion that Putin should stand down.
Iran for certain, Russia as well. That area is pretty much at the heart of Central Asia. Except for Afghanistan and China beyond our you can pretty much go in any direction, but Iran is the obvious target.
They were afraid of the Stalin USSR, not today’s Russia, and that is why they are approaching the borders as much as they want because they know that there will be no reaction. As long as they have “reasonable” people in the presidency and government, but also “lobbyists” in the DUMA, who constantly beg for understanding, the Anglo-Americans have no need to change. They will change beheviour only when someone more National arrives, who is ready to use advertised superwunderwaffen. When determined people come out who do not care what western partners think. Will it help the rest of the world, hard to imagine, but Russia for sure.
Genius or oligarchs are not the problem, even central banksters but incompetent elite with tiny combinations and politically illiterate masses who love the cult of personality and lies spoken to children. In addition to such, the West does not need an occupation like they have tried for centuries. This is english perfidious school developed in their institutes of social engineering. You find people inside country who do dirty work for you weakening positions of that country on many levels. Paid by plundering their own land. Once in communism they had to buy whole nations through workers’ rights, in fascism today (so-called liberalism) only individuals. Much cheaper, and more profitable. The biggest item in the budget that they give next to NGOs is the camouflage marketing of the so-called patriots.
Nonsense, you are way off the mark on all accounts. And who gives a toss if Pashinyan blames Rusia and joins the Nato. That will bring happiness to all Armenians, won’t it? And your grandmaster genius will be vindicated…
No one talks about the human cost that Azeris have incurred. Most experts believe that Azeris shed tons of blood. Also, Azeris have advanced 30 km in 22 days of fighting in the south. And that advance has been mostly in flat terrain in Jebrayil where Armenians didn’t have much defensive fortifications and things changed hands several times until Armenians just left it to them and withdrew to the mountains. And it looks like the “Red Army” has already arrived. On Monday over the skies of Karabakh Armenians for the first time shot down multiple drones, five of which are Turkish Baryaktar(5 mill each) and Israeli Harop ($10 mill each). So Armenians used about $750k missiles and shot down about 25-30 mill $ Azeri drones. If this keeps happening and there is no reason it won’t then Azeris can’t sustain this war even if Oil is trading at $150 a barrel. If Armenians can secure the skies of Jebrayil like this then then can surround Azeri forces here in small pockets and destroy them slowly. Just like the Novorossians did to Ukrainian army when the Uki army occupied all the border lands between East Ukraine and Russia. This looks like the furthest advance that the Azeris will have made in this war. Unless they can afford to produce a $5 million drone each minute. And on a side note, Russian forces with all sorts of nifty radars and anti air missiles have appeared in Goris, right next to Nagorno Karabakh. This time around Azeris can completely forget about getting any land back. They fired their last bullet.
For the ultimate outcome, these costs are necessary. I think the plan is a return of the NKR security zone to Azerbaijan, plus maybe 40% of the NKAO including Shushi. The small portion that remains populated by Armenians then is recognized as an independent state that Pashinian is pushing for. That way the Azerbaijan doesn’t have territorial disputes and both Armenia and Azerbaijan can then become part of NATO.
I think this is what Pashinian has agreed with Aliyev, and the war is to make sure the plan can be carried out and neither Pashinian nor Aliyev will be shot against a wall.
Seems someone is forgetting to make a anti drone drone or a similar technology.
I don’t understand how Armenia brought l s-300 ADS without at buying at least the sosna Shorad.
As far as I know, the Kalashnikov concern have the Rex anti drone weapon maybe it could have been useful to avoid the disaster.
Azerbaijan is doing some funny things in Karabakh. A group of their soldiers infiltrate a village that has been uninhabited for 25 years, they raise their flag and videotape it and put it online as proof that they conquered that village. Then the Armenian accurate artillery fire drives them out of the village and Armenian forces re-enter the village. What the Azeris are trying to accomplish by doing this is hard to comprehend. With psychological warfare you can only go so far. You can only stretch reality so much. There are also a bunch of Armenian speaking Azeris who call citizens of Armenia and ask them what they think about the war. LOL. These people are bored. How is my answer going to change anything in the real battlefield ? Azeris are acting real strange in this war.
It is even questionable if those super weapons exist. I’ve seen a videos showing frame by frame and they clearly were montages.
Besides, Russians claim they had better weapons than the West from the 1960s onwards, yet still they lost the cold war. Not all comes down to firepower.
Then you have the Putin-apologists cult. No honest critic can get thru them. Sad.
The Armenian prime minister should know that if he loses territory, he loses the position of prime minister.
No one wants a loser as a leader. All
elected leaders who lose war also lose their office
If Armenia loses some territory at the cost of tens of thousands of Azeri lives, then Aliev’s rule is not so sure to last. It’s going to be a Pyrrhic victory. With the most modern weapons and such overwhelming force(3 to 1 advantage, Azeris have so far failed to advance in any of the mountain territories. And with the approaching winter their drone advantage is also diminishing, and Armenian forces are slowly starting to gain control of the battlefields.