The Greater Middle East has been gearing up for a new war.
The Iranian parliament announced that it is preparing a draft resolution on a “defense and security treaty for the Axis of Resistance”. By signing the treaty with its allies, states and non-state actors alike, Iran will officially create its own NATO-styled military bloc in the face of the everyday growing chances of a direct military confrontation with the US-Israeli alliance.
The unofficial Axis of Resistance is, essentially, on its way to becoming a security-guaranteeing organization that will have a lot of success stories to claim.
In recent weeks, Iran’s allies and proxies have had significant success. A vivid example of this are Yemen’s Houthis. Additionally to advances on the ground, they vowed to develop, apparently with help from Iran, even more deterrence weapons to counter Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
They also pushed a base in Southern Yemen forcing the UAE forces to evacuate from it, as it said that the Saudi-UAE coalition cannot expect to stay safe as long as it is in Yemen. Such successes in the conditions of the strict naval, land and even air blockade stand a testament to the fact that some sort of higher-level organization is taking place behind the scenes.
Iran also improved its positions in Syria and Iraq, despite Israel and US attempts to stop its movements. Tehran expanded its intelligence capabilities near Jordan and Israel, while US supply convoys are being regularly blown up in Iraq.
On the wider, international front, there is hope for the Iran Nuclear Deal with Joe Biden in the White House. A full renewal is quite suspect, since Iran said that it was only possible after the lifting of every sanction, and it is still unclear if the new globalist rulership of the US is willing to go that far in attempting to de-escalate the situation.
Israel expects that it will not happen, as the IDF prepares to hold massive drills, simulating a multi-front war. Every branch of the military is planned to take part, and the forces will push both in the north and the south. The drill will simulate the “worst-case scenario” conflict.
The Israeli leadership does not hide that this is a message to Iran and its allies that an open war is not out of the question and Tel Aviv wishes to show its potential strength to deter any preemptive aggression.
Iran, however, is likely not discouraged, as the Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure campaign” apparently failed to achieve any of its strategic goals. During the past years Tehran’s position improved, and it is using the chance of re-inventing itself as an alternative center of power in the Middle East.
The core of the Axis of Resistance has been consolidated and gained new strength. The Iranian-led alliance, if it’s really created and successes in attracting at least a neutral stance towards it global players like China or Russia will likely shift the balance of power in the region, and potentially bring forth a cautious normalization of events. That remains to be seen in the future, as all sides also show their readiness for heavy hostilities.