Events in the Ukraine are taking a very serious turn: Poroshenko has declared that private “pocket” armies of governors will no longer be tolerated and he has now given Kolomoiskii 24 hours to lay down arms.  Poroshenko’s chief henchmen – Arsen Avakov and the CIA’s Valentin Nalivaichenko – have indicated that Poroshenko has their full support and loyalty.  In other words, the full power of the junta is now threatening to come down on Kolomoiskii’s head.  Kolomoiskii, in turn, is preparing some kind of pro-Kolomoiskii “maidan” in Dnepropetrovsk for Wednesday.  In order to prevent that, several death squads (“national guard battalions”) have been sent to the city.

Kolomoiskii

Kolomoiskii

It sure looks like the freaks are really going to go after each other.

It will be very interesting to observe how this will play out.  The US seems to be fully supporting Poroshenko as will most other countries.  For the Empire, it might be a good moment to get rid of such a fantastically odious figure like Kololmoiskii.

Interestingly, Kolomoikii has recently declared in an interview that if new elections were organized in Novorussia he believed that Zakharchenko and other Novorussian officials would probably be reelected.  Such overtures to the Novorussian leadership are a sign that Kolomoiskii is in a tough spot and that he is considering his options.

As for Poroshenko, he appears as bellicose as ever, making grand statements about everything and running around in battle fatigues. Whether that will be enough to impress a thug whose net worth is estimated at 1.3 billion dollars is unclear to me.  And yet, I don’t see Kolomoiskii prevailing in this fight.  Not only is the Empire clearly supporting Poroshenko, as key “power figures” in the junta, but even Russia has (reluctantly) accepted that, at least for the time being, Poroshenko was if not fully legitimate, then the real de-facto leader of the Nazi occupied Ukraine.  So while left one on one Kolomoiskii would probably easily defeat Poroshenko, the fact that the latter has the full backing of the Empire will probably be crucial.

I would add that for the Empire to support the weaker party is normal, but not out of some sense of justice for the little guy, but simply because the stronger party does not need external support to win whereas the weaker party always does.  This is the real reason why the Empire will always side with the minority, with the smaller group – it is easier to control.   Siding with Poroshenko just makes the him even more dependent on US support.

So it all adds up: Kolomoiskii is a universally loathed figure, there is a very good chance that MH17 can be fully dumped on him (thereby providing the Empire with a face saving “out”), he is probably very hard to control and he is threatening the junta.  If I was sitting in Langley my recommendation would be clear: send him to Muzychko.

The Saker

The Essential Saker: from the trenches of the emerging multipolar world