By Rostislav Ishchenko
Translated by Ollie Richardson and Angelina Siard
cross posted with http://www.stalkerzone.org/rostislav-ishchenko-kerch-provocation-causes-and-consequences/
Important note: this article was written before Russia had to use force to stop the Ukronazi intruders who, by the way, claim that they opened fire against the Russian ships.
When in the summer two ships of the Naval Forces of Ukraine passed through the Kerch Strait, Kiev tried to convince everyone that a “heroic breakthrough” took place. However, it quickly became clear that the “heroes”, in full accordance with the Russian demands and rules, gave notice about their passage in advance, requested permission and a maritime pilot, and in general behaved exclusively precautionary.
Back then the “victory” didn’t happen. But this doesn’t mean that the idea had been refused. And so in November the Naval Forces of Ukraine indeed went for a real breakthrough.
What is the idea behind the Ukrainian provocations?
Firstly, Kiev desires to create a precedent of the free, without obtaining Russian permission, passage of its warships through the Kerch Strait, which would confirm the allegedly existing rights of Ukraine for these waters, and at the same time it would confirm its claims to Crimea. After all, Ukraine can have the right to freely navigate through the strait only if Crimea belongs to it.
Secondly, Kiev means that Russia can counter the passage of its ships. In this option an armed conflict is desirable for Kiev. In such a case Ukraine can appeal to the world community and point to “Russian aggression”, which its ships and sailors became the “innocent victims” of.
Why does Kiev need to do this?
Ukraine needs the internationalisation of the conflict in the Sea of Azov. It is losing the standoff that began with the attack of the Ukrainian naval pirates on the “Nord” seiner. At the same time, contrary to the hopes of the government in Kiev, Russia works strictly within the framework of international law. I.e., in actual reality neither the US nor the EU have a formal reason to intervene in the conflict. That’s why all their statements sound like a warning against a further escalation. It is precisely for this reason that a further escalation isn’t needed by Russia, but it is needed by Ukraine. Kiev, which lost the Azov crisis, needs international mediation in order to squeeze out concessions from Russia. Gunfire, sunk ships, and dead sailors are indeed what’s necessary for the purpose of motivating such mediation. The current norms of international law legalise the intervention of any country for the purpose of preventing or stopping a military conflict. Ukraine wants to receive an advantageous political position with a little bit of bloodshed among its sailors. Kiev stopped having compassion for its people long ago.
Thirdly, since Russia won’t be the first to use weapons against what Ukraine pathetically calls its Naval Forces, Kiev tries to accuse Moscow of violating international maritime law.
In reality, the convention on marine law stipulates the right of passage for warships through the territorial waters of another state. This is called “the right of free passage”, and for its implementation a simple notification is enough. It’s as if Ukraine is right, but in reality this same convention stipulates the right of any state to close its territorial waters, any of their zones, temporarily or constantly, for “free passage” or to introduce other restrictions of this regime. This is exactly what Russia did in the Kerch Strait, proceeding from the safety of both navigation and the Kerch Bridge, which a Ukrainian official and semi-officials threatened to destroy more than once. By the way, the US once tried to enter the territorial waters of the USSR near Sevastopol, also motivating their actions by the “right of free passage”. Back then this ended with a Soviet patrol boat ramming an American combat ship. So there already were precedents.
In this situation it is precisely the summer passage of Ukrainian ships through the Kerch Strait with the observance of all rules that weakens the position of the government in Kiev. In fact, Ukraine itself recognised the right of Russia to introduce restrictions on the passage of ships and vessels through the Kerch Strait, having obeyed these rules in the summer. That’s why today’s hysterics about the fact that it was again demanded to observe these same rules looks unconvincing.
But the government in Kiev, and more precisely Poroshenko, without the direct order of who this provocation wouldn’t have the chance of taking place, has no need to substantiate his position. He needs Russia to be the first to use its weapons against his Naval Forces. Only this gives the chance to appeal to the international community with a request to protect it from aggression.
By the way, Mogherini’s statement, which directly threatened Moscow with sanctions if the situation in the Azov water area sharpens, was supposed to give Poroshenko more confidence. The situation is very much reminiscent of August, 2008 in South Ossetia. Back then Condoleezza Rice also hinted at supporting the regime of Saakashvili in the event of war with Russia. By the way, I don’t think that the Americans lied. Simply the “wonderful Georgian” couldn’t prove he had been attacked by Russia, whose army entered the territory of South Ossetia and started “coercion to peace” the day after the Georgians started military operations against the Ossetian militia and Russian peacekeepers. The hot-blooded Caucasian guys who became euphoric from permissiveness admitted so many times live on TV that they had shelled the residential quarters of Tskhinvali from MLRS and barrelled artillery, and they admitted that it is precisely they who initiated military operations. After this the West, with all its desire, couldn’t pretend that Russia was guilty.
Today many rules and norms that were secretly governing the relations between superstates during the era of the Cold war aren’t in effect today. But at least one of them is still in effect. If your army was struck and it suffered losses, then you can even grind their attack into a powder, and nobody will interfere, because if today you are forbidden to respond, then tomorrow the soldiers, ships, and jets of the US, France, and Great Britain will fall under the strike of some “partisans” . And they also won’t be able to do anything.
That’s why the “civilised world” didn’t interfere on the side of Georgia, which killed Russian peacekeepers during the war of 08.08.08. That’s why Turkey, which downed a Russian plane, suddenly found itself in proud solitude. While it shelled Syrian troops over the border, the collective West was ready to support it against any respond from Russia. But it opened fire on Russia first, and Moscow acquired the right to give any response. Another thing is that instead of involving itself in an expensive senseless war, Russia could, with the help of economic sanctions and competent diplomatic actions, make Turkey an ally, albeit a situational one. But the West made it clear to Ankara that if Russia will respond in a military way, NATO won’t be on the side of Turkey, since it was the first to attack – i.e., it can’t be considered as a victim of aggression.
And this is where the fine line is, which Ukraine needs to observe during its provocations and shouldn’t cross in any circumstances. It very much wants a small armed conflict in the Azov or Black Sea and is ready to sacrifice for the sake of this any amount of its navigating means, or even its entire fleet. But it can’t be the first to shoot, because then Russia acquires the right to respond. And the West is already accustomed to the fact that Russia’s answers are so lightning and unexpected (asymmetric) that while live broadcasts are being prepared and columns are being written with accusations against Moscow of the disproportionate use of force, in turns out that there is already nobody to save and that there is a need to deal with the new reality.
That’s why Poroshenko, of course, very much wants to provoke a limited military conflict with Russia. He needs the conflict both to receive international support and to strengthen his position inside the country (attempts to mobilise voters around the commander-in-chief “repelling aggression”, or if they anyway don’t support him, then to receive a reason to cancel elections). But Poroshenko is limited by the condition of the impossibility of a formal attack carried out by Ukrainian military personnel against the troops or objects of the Russian Federation. A provocation or even an act of terrorism is one thing, the responsibility for which the government in Kiev won’t assume, but an open armed aggression against Russia is completely something else.
The danger of these games is that sooner or later the nerves of someone from among the Ukrainian military can not only fray, but they will for sure fray, and then shots will sound. After this Volker, Mogherini, and other “friends of Ukraine” will pretend that they were just passing by, and Poroshenko even won’t have time to eat his tie.
Porky has his blood. Several wounded on Ukie boats.
SIMFEROPOL (Sputnik) – Three Ukrainian ships seized in the Black Sea for illegally crossing the Russian border will be escorted to the port of Kerch, a spokesman for the Border Directorate of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) for Crimea, Anton Lozovoy, said on Monday.
“All three vessels have been seized. They are being convoyed to the port of Kerch,” Lozovoy told reporters. According to the FSB spokesman, a criminal case has been initiated under Russian Criminal Code Article 322.3 (illegal crossing of the state border). Three slightly wounded Ukrainian soldiers have received medical assistance, Lozovoy added.
But he also has a criminal case to deal with, and the loss of three ships (small as they are).
Meanwhile, Russia has requested an urgent meeting of UN Security Council members at 11 a.m. on Monday (16.00 GMT) to discuss the situation in the Kerch Strait.
To double down on his criminal regime in Kiev, Porky has ordered the bombardment of residential areas of Donetsk. It is described as “massive shelling” occurring in the Donbass.
(Thanks to Ollie and Angelina for the Ishchenko translation.)
Here’s video of the Russians ramming the Ukie tugboat that did not obey orders.
“Three slightly wounded Ukrainian soldiers have received medical assistance, Lozovoy added.”
Once their owies were patched up with imported Flintstones ™ bandages and got a nappy change, ukronazia’s brave seafarers were good to go.
The shelling news was fake, it was calm in the DPR last night.
From Patrick Lancaster posted below…
.can you check
?????,? I have previously believed that Donetsk is not making fake news…….
” MASSIVE ATTACK ON DONBASS?
There are many rumours that an intense attack occurred on Donbass after yesterdays Ukraine and Russian Navy Kerch Strait incident. The Donetsk People’s Republic Joint Center for
Control and Coordination reported that in the 24 hour period Ukraine attacked DPR 20 times. Actually down from 23 from the day before although a pumping station did come under shelling. So all in it seems the Kerch strait incident has not yet affected the DPR. Ukraine attacks Donbass every day and that should be known by the world
Today’s Daily Report (Translated to English) from the Donetsk People’s Republic Joint Center for Control and Coordination. You will never find this in the Western MSM, they just block this information.
“FROM 3:00 AM ON NOVEMBER 25 TO 3:00 AM ON NOVEMBER 26
The representative office of the Donetsk People’s Republic in JCCC: over the past 24 hours reports the total number of violations by the armed forces of Ukraine was 20.
On the territory of the DPR, in violation of the Minsk agreements, as well as agreements on a truce, the following weapons were used.
Gorlovka area: RPG / LNG – 1 shot; AGS – 1 time (29 grenades); large-caliber small arms – 5 times; small arms – 6 times.
Donetsk Area: RPG / LNG – 11 shots; AGS – 2 times (44 grenades); large-caliber small arms – 6 times; small arms – 6 times.
Mariupol Area: mortars 120 mm – 2 times (7 min); 82 mm mortars – 1 time (6 min); RPG / LNG – 1 shot; large-caliber small arms – 2 times; small arms – 2 times.
The following areas/localities turned out to be in the shelling zone from the Volga Federal University: Gorlovka (Zaitsevo, Gagarin village, Red Partizan), Yasinovataya, Krutaya Balka, Yakovlevka, Vasilyevka, Donetsk (Terminal, village Trudovskaya highway) , Lenin, Sahanka.
‼ ️ As previously reported, the Vasilyevsk pumping station area came under attack from the VFU, due to which the staff was forced to hide for a long time.
With the assistance of the DPR Representative Office, a steady silence regime was established.
There are no casualties among civilians or damage to civilian infrastructure at the moment.
The total number of ammunition used by the Ukraine Forces – 99 units.
Recall the number of issued ammunition caliber to 12.7 mm is not included in the overall statistics of the amount of ammunition in the daily report.
In the previous day the amount of ammunition used throughout the territory of the DPR was 23 units.
Starting from 00:01 on August 29, 2018, in accordance with the agreement reached by the Minsk Contact Group, a renewed obligation to observe a comprehensive, sustainable and indefinite cease-fire regime in connection with the start of the school year, the “school” truce, entered into force.”
Thanks! Real facts are always useful in this internet age of light-speed rumors.
Thanks also as always to the translators!!!!
The world found out what Der Porky Fuhrer really wanted from this a few hours later. When Porky said he wanted to declare martial law, and the Rada rubber stamped the request unanimously.
Obviously, a provocation staged by the Ukraine rowboat navy doesn’t warrant a nationwide imposition of martial law, but instead this serves as a pretense. Although, it is such a slim and unbelievable pretense that they might as well declared martial law because the leaves fell off the trees.
Just saw thus comment at the Hal Turner site, from inteldrop333 at 17:59 11/25/2018:
If the bomb exists, it is in Russian hands. They captured the boats.
Or does this bomb exist as a hollogram?
Oh, the story comes from a commenter, inteldrop333, for sure, a great source to grace our Vineyard.
Trolling before bedtime in mommy’s basement, Mr.anti-republocrat?
Exactly, igniting and blowing up the psychosis of war, as a prelude to provoking Russia’s over reaction. Unfortunately for the provocateurs this won’t work against Russia, which will not overact. Even if some of the events happened, Russia will downplay them, which I perfectly understand as avoidance of confrontation instigated by provocation.
Hal Turner and Washington Examiner are both desinfo fakes news sites.
Hal Turner is lying now, was lying in the past, and will continue to lie well into the future. Take a look at his previous claims about things that turned out to be fake and make your own conclusions.
Had Putin allowed Novorussian fighters in 2014-2015 to sweep the entire area clean, starting from Mariupol in May of 2014 and then way beyond, there would not be the absurd situation which we have at present.
Russia would not share Sea of Azov with Zio-Nazis from Kiev today, but with friendly Novorussia, be it independent or part of Russian Federation.
All the squaring of the circle claims by unquestioning Putin apologists since notwithstanding, the above was clearly predictable then and, unfortunately, evident now.
I agree, leaving Mariupol in hands of Bandera retards was a big mistake.
Another step toward the abyss by Foggy Bottom. Interesting that the gas attack on Aleppo has hardly made to ‘main stream’ west news, but this little incident is all over the place and will get worse during the day.
However it happened, there is not insignificant damage to one Russian Coast Guard ship, a long scrape down the starboard side, albeit well about the water line. No footage yet showing the actual shooting nor any of the orc ships being towed in to Kerch Harbor.
Everything is tightened up hereabouts and I’ll know more shortly, then I’ll report what I can. The good thing is Father Winter may put paid to this event today, seems a slight squall is on the way:
Means Mother will get the block ship out of the way today and herd all the ships possible through the straits in both directions.
Sevastopol, The Third Defense. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B079KRPLS4 Book 1, A Premonition, The Move South. Set against a backdrop of real events and real places, the reader is left to filter fact from fiction.
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU March 2014. NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
In the American press, it really hasn’t been played up very much. Its been on and off the sorts of lists of Top Stories that at least the site I check (American BS Company) for breaking news.
The main story has been Trump forces opening fire with rubber bullets and tear gas on asylum seekers who wanted to exercise their rights under international treaties to apply for asylum in the USA, and the subsequent closing of the busiest crossing point on the American border.
The American coverage has been much less aggressive than the English site I also check. That site had it as a major headline all day right up with May’s Brexit Deal Strangely, the ABC site has a Russian leaning headline “Russia accuses Ukraine of provocation”, and the story begins with the Russian version of events an does a pretty good job of stating the Russian position. Its a strange piece because it seems noticeable that after a decent review of the facts of the case, a different writer appears to take over then telling the propaganda narrative of Ukraine’s strange charges about the Kerch Strait. But before that obviously tacked on bit, it actually does give the Russian position. It just seems unusual in the American press.
Of course, it would be strange to be up in arms about Russia firing on armed military vessels that violate its border on the very same day they have to try to drum up the evil of unarmed migrants seeking asylum and thus deserving fire from the most fanatical of the Trump forces in the Border Patrol.
No mention of the zionazi-gay cw attack in Syria. The chance that and these new ukro-nazi-gay provocations are not part of the same interconnected op are practically nil.
So what will be Mondays zionazi-gay provocation?
Posted at Stalker Zone. Points #8 and #9 stood out to me:
Martial law in Ukraine means the following:
1 In the event that martial law is introduced, able-bodied citizens have a labor duty for the purpose of performing work of a defensive nature.
2 A curfew on the territory where martial law is imposed.
3 A specific regime of entrance and exit.
4 Verification of documents, examination of things, vehicles, and so forth.
5 Martial law allows the state to control the activity of the media, cultural institutions, and printing houses.
6 Natural persons and legal persons are obliged to provide space for quartering of military personnel should the need arise.
7 The military command can ban the activity of parties and public organisations if they threaten security, territory, the independence of the country, or the life of citizens.
8 It is impossible to dismiss the parliament or to announce the impeachment of the president in a state of martial law. This also applies to most ministers, judges, the prosecutor’s office, and local governments.
9 Martial law will also allow to cancel diplomatic agreements with the enemy and to seize the property of the aggressor that is on the territory of Ukraine.
Martial law in Ukraine means the following:
Well it might burst the festering boil of Ukraine governnment and statecraft…..if peoples are put under even more stress….
Ukraine’s army put on full combat alert – Defense Ministry
“The current norms of international law legalise the intervention of any country for the purpose of preventing or stopping a military conflict”.
So, legally, nations like Russia and China – and even Iran – have the right to intervene against US forces in any of the dozens of countries that they have invaded and ravaged?
Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, for instance, are outstanding examples of countries that the USA has invaded without the slightest shadow of legal justification.
Explains why the empire gave Ukraine a few junk military ships.
One thing I rarely hear mentioned. Not just in the CIA controlled press, but also not in opposition press.
At least a few loud-mouths and hot-heads in Ukraine and I believe in the United States have openly advocated for blowing up that new bridge that provides not only a transportation connection but also power connections to Crimea.
Therefore, it is perfectly reasonable for Russian authorities to be very, very concerned about ships approaching that bridge in an unusual and unauthorized manner. They can never tell if that is a ship that is loaded with high explosives and tasked with trying to blow up the bridge. Security measures such as inspecting ships are reasonable in that strait. Also, measures such as shutting down traffic completely and blocking access to the bridge with a cargo ship are reasonable responses to the unusual situations given the threats that have been clearly made.
Any world leader needs to be very careful about attacking other nations based on “hints” from Americans. That’s the trap Saddam fell into during the Kuwait War. Bush the First was President, and his officials were giving Saddam all sorts of big hints that America wouldn’t mind if Saddam attacked Kuwait. IIRC, one of these big hints was the US Ambassador telling Saddam directly that America wouldn’t get involved in a border dispute between Iraq and Kuwait.
Of course, everyone knows the rest of that story. Saddam took the bait and attacked Kuwait, and Bush the First then declared (unconstitutional) war against Saddam because Saddam, the next Hitler, had dared to attack sweet little Kuwait and steal their baby incubators. By the next decade, Saddam was being dug out of a rathole and then hung at the end of a rope. That’s what happens to leaders who take hints from Americans.
Heck, America can’t honor is treaties and alliances. That’s been true since the American native chiefs said the Great White Chief in Washington speaks with forked tongue. If they won’t honor their treaties, why would anyone expect them to back up their “hints”?
Parasha knows that he will fare badly in any remotely fair election. At the same time, Parasha’s western owners also know that, given the current conditions in Ukraine, Parasha’s replacement is likely to be…embarrassing for the West, to say the least. Even if an open Nazi isn’t elected, Nazis and crypto-Nazis are likely represent a growing power bloc in Ukraine, one that gets harder and harder to explain away with the usual glib phrases one hears.
Similarly, as the economic situation in Orkaina deteriorates, Parasha will have no choice but to go for broke.
From that perspective, Parasha’s decision makes perfect sense. Engage in a provocation, declare martial law that can be extended as frequently as needed, no election, no problem. Parasha was doubtless assured that the IMF credits would continue to flow, martial law or not.
This is also why the more warlike factions of the Ukrainian Parliament were much less keen on the declaration of martial law than the “moderates”. They know that martial law will delay elections in which they stand to gain at the expense of the less openly savage.
Just because our opponents are evil, does not make them stupid.