This is the full text of the interview I was referring to in my rant about what I consider to be stupid flag-waving. Considering all the controversy this interview generated here, I feel that I need to clarify something here: I am not “endorsing” either Sivkov or his views (especially not his “other” views not mentioned in this interview). I do, however, believe that Sivkov is an very qualified and competent military expert who is well-connected and well-informed and who is most definitely somebody whose opinions should not be dismissed. A big THANK YOU to Seva for this important translation!
ALEXANDER FATEEV: Good evening, news program Vzglyad (“Look”) is on the air. Today we will talk about events in Syria. Our guest today is Doctor of Military sciences, our military expert Konstantin Syvkov.
FATEEV: Our last program with Dr. Syvkov had an enormous success among the viewers, so we decided to invite him again. So, Dr. Sivkov, this is the second week of the action of the Russian forces in support of the Syrian army and the government of Bashar Assad in their fight against international terrorism. How do you think the action is progressing after our airstrikes at the terrorist positions, and what does the picture of the war in general look like?
SIVKOV: In my view, due to actions of our forces, as well as the fact that significant amounts of ammunition were supplied to Syria for their artillery, on October 7th on a narrow part of the front, on the Idlib direction, a successful advance was organized. The rate of advance of the Syrian forces at the beginning reached 70 kilometers per day. It slowed after that, but still during several days the fight was successful, which led to the surrounding of the enemy forces, including most of the troops of Jabhat al-Nusra. After that, and we can state this now as a fact, the rate of the advance of Syrian army greatly decreased: it became a few kilometers per day. Syrians retook some towns, but the overall advance stalled. At the same time, ISIS managed to organize an advance in other parts of the front, to distract Syrian forces. One of the worst things was that on October 13-14 ISIS successfully advanced towards Aleppo, where they annihilated some units of the Free Syrian Army and even pushed back the Syrian Army.
At the same time, active war started near Damascus. This forced the Syrian army to regroup, without finishing off the enemy surrounded in Idlib and failing to finish the operation in the North, stop short of Turkish border. Syrian Army was forced instead to start operation near Damascus, to push terrorists out of Damascus suburb, and to push them far enough from Damascus to make it impossible for ISIS to shell the city from mortars. What was the most unpleasant was that in the city of Latakia our planes had to hit Latakia suburbs to eliminate mortar batteries of ISIS. It is in a way natural, because ISIS engages in guerrilla warfare, using small almost commando groups that penetrate deep into enemy territory, fire 10-15, maybe 20 mortar rounds, and leaving their positions so fast that it’s almost impossible to detect and eliminate them. This is pretty much what it looks like now.
FATEEV: It appears that as expected by various experts, including Russian, the Idlib surrounding of enemy troops did not happen, not so much because of the lack of fighting spirit or modern weapons in Syrian Army, but because ISIS terrorists actively counter-attack in different directions, particularly near Damascus and in the South. This forces the Syrian Army to move forces meant to seal the surrounded al-Nusra troops and destroy them. Syrians also cannot de-block Aleppo, which was surrounded by ISIS for 4 years, which is longer than the Leningrad blockade during WWII. So it looks like there will be no Idlib surrounding?
SYVKOV: You are right that ISIS ruined the scenario envisioned by the Syrian government when the troops are relocated to other fronts to pursue other goals without having finished their operation in the Northwest. This shows that the plan of the operation is broken, and the goals were not achieved. I would like to draw your attention to another important fact: Russian airforce significantly increased the number of sorties. In the first day there were 20-25 sorties per day, now it’s about 90 daily sorties. I would like to remind you that maximum that military planes can do is two sorties per day. Greater numbers are fraught with dangers of inadequate maintenance and pilot fatigue. This might lead to casualties. Besides, due to required time to reach targets and engage them it is impossible to make more than two sorties per day per plane. Thus, the intensity of the use of our air force in Syria reached the limit. Without increasing the number of aircrafts involved it would be impossible to intensify its action.
FATEEV: To increase the number of the aircrafts involved, we need to expand the technical service capabilities. Latakia airbase has only one runway. Thus, it’s impossible to increase the number of sorties because of this limitation. Therefore, we would need yet another airbase…
SYVKOV: You are right, we need to increase operational capacity. Maximum capacity of the Latakia airbase, as far as we can judge from available information, is about 60 aircraft. Now this limit is essentially reached, considering that there are 22 helicopters and 45-50 planes. This is the limit. Thus, we need either an additional airbase, or to expand this one, which means construction. What’s more, the expansion of this base would mean high concentration of our aircrafts within a limited space. This makes them vulnerable to strikes by ISIS or, possibly, countries that might intervene into the Syrian conflict against Russia, which is also possible.
So, it’s preferable to have a different additional airfield. However, I think that it would be more efficient to achieve an agreement with Iran to use its airfields. In this case, with aircrafts based in Iran that can act against ISIS in Iraq (which requested help) and Syria, we would be able to deploy a much greater force. Resupply of this force could be more regular, without problems of going through Bosporus or flying long roundabout way via Gibraltar, around the whole Europe. The route via the Caspian Sea and Iran would allow for easy resupply of our troops. In that case, we would be able to deploy a very significant force comprising 100-120 aircraft based on two-three airfields that Iran could offer. So far, I have not heard any talk about this option. Up to now, the force is being increased in Latakia, which is worrisome, because gradual increase of this group prevents the achievement of meaningful goals. Of course, Russia can use aircrafts with long operating range. Flying from airfields in Dagestan, near the Caspian Sea, with the range of 2,500 kilometers with payload of 7-10 tons, such aircrafts, flying via Iran and Iraq could successfully hit targets in Syria.
FATEEV: How about air corridor via Turkey?
SYVKOV: I think that right now Turkey won’t give us this opportunity, although it would be welcome, as we would be able to fly directly from Crimea. The route over the Caspian Sea is the most realistic. However, we must keep in mind that the bombing by Tu-22M is a lot less precise than the frontline bombers used now. There are, however, new unique Russian systems that allow a significant increase in the precision of bombing by Tu-22. So far, the use of these aircrafts is not discussed, even though they can be used. I can say one more thing: Iran has already sent to Syria several thousand troops, which unofficially participate in the war against ISIS. Clearly, this is not enough.
I would like to stress one more issue. The success of the Syrian Army in the first day offensive in Hama province towards Idlib was partially due to the method that is called “fire wave”. This means very dense artillery shelling, using 300 or more artillery pieces per 1 km of the frontline. The fire is aimed at the defense lines and is moved forward as the troops advance. This method consumes a lot of ammunition, but it is very effective in getting through fortifications. This allowed the breakthrough via the enemy defenses. I would like to point out that after that there was no information about the use of such a concentrated artillery fire. This suggests that the Syrian forces used up much, if not most, of the ammunition they had, including those supplied by Russia. Apparently, now they don’t have enough ammunition for adequate artillery support of the troops. That would explain why the rate of advance was greatly reduced.
Naturally, the question arises: what about Russian air force? This requires clarification. Russian air force works mostly, if not exclusively, at stationary targets.
FATEEV: What about surgical strikes at military columns?
SYVKOV. There were few of those. In 95% of cases, it engages stationary targets. Shooting at stationary objects, it can achieve very high precision targeting. What is the reason for that? First, the main type of munitions used is free-falling bombs. This is known. Under usual circumstances, free-falling bombs are scattered widely: 200-300 meters. Engaging small targets would leads to a lot of collateral damage among residents, while the probability of hitting the target remains low. Russia created unique equipment installed on practically all Russian military aircraft in Syria. It uses GLONASS and leads the aircraft to the point of dropping bombs with precision of a few meters. Based on aircraft trajectory, the dynamics of its change, air temperature, it ensures automatic release of the bomb at exactly the right spot.
FATEEV: So, essentially the pilot has to deliver the bomb to that spot, and automatic system will do everything else?
SYVKOV: Yes, the pilot does not need to think about keeping the course, he does not need to think about refraining from evasive anti-rocket or anti-PRO maneuvers – he flies any way he needs to. Automatic system will drop the bomb in the right place at the right time. Thus, dropping 2-3 bombs, the pilot is essentially guaranteed to hit the target. However, let me draw your attention that the plain should get to the right spot according to the coordinates of the target, which are entered into the system beforehand, according to GLONASS data. Thus, these weapons cannot be used against mobile targets.
FATEEV: Can we support our troops in Syria with high-precision munitions launched from the Russian Federation? Here is what I mean. Recent launch of cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea was the first use of the Caspian Navy since the Civil War in Russia. Cruise missiles travelled long distance via Iran and Iraq successfully hit their targets, at least according to the statement of the Russian Defense Ministry.
SYVKOV: That is true. I would like to point out one more thing: American cruise missile Tomahawk, analogous to our missiles “Caliber”, with usual payload have the range of 1,500 kilometers. The real range, considering that they have to go around areas with anti-aircraft defenses and other areas where they don’t want to fly, is about 1,100-1,200 kilometers. Our cruise missiles were launched at the distance of 1,500 or a bit more kilometers, which suggests that their maximum range is significantly greater, about 1,800 kilometers. According to media, it is ~2,600 kilometers. Thus, our cruise missiles have greater range than their American analogues. Another point draws attention: each target was hit with only two missiles, with very few targets hit by three missiles. This is a very small number, suggesting very high precision and reliability of these missiles. Americans usually target command centers or depots with 3-4 missiles. This is a nuance worth noting. However, we should note that virtually all Caspian Navy was used to launch these 26 missiles, four ships, three of which were small rocket ships, and one simply a rocket ship of the class “Gepard” (“Cheetah” – translator’s note). Each of these ships has eight launchers, so they could have launch 32 missiles and actually launched 26. Here is what is worth noting: the next salvo could have been made in 2-3 days. It’s been almost a week.
FATEEV: So, it was a one-time action to demonstrate that we can strike at a distance?
SYVKOV: That’s exactly right. Apparently. Considering tough situation in Syria and the fact that the Russian air force there works at the limit of its capabilities, the absence of the second salvo suggests that Russia ran out of supplies of this kind of weapons, or has a limited number left. These missiles now need to be manufactured.
FATEEV: This suggests a very interesting situation: the number of sorties of the Russian air force increased three-fold. Despite successful hits of bases, plants, command centers with terrorist leaders, there is no prospect of quick victory over ISIS. What is going on?
SYVKOV: We should keep in mind that the size of the Russian air force group in Syria allows for efficient action on only one operational direction, with limited effect on a second direction after the number of aircraft was increased to about 50. This is the limit of the capabilities of Russian aircrafts currently based in Syria. They cannot do more. This is point number one. The other is that our aircrafts, considering the weapons they use, can engage virtually only stationary targets near the frontlines. Bombing of the command centers (about 20 were mentioned) does not significantly affect the effectiveness of their units at the front. The time ISIS needs to restore command structure after bombing ranges from a few hours to a day. That is, the command structure is restored within a day. If we are talking about the next level of command, as well as strategic command, the time to restore it is about 2-3 days. However, ISIS uses the tactics of independent guerilla groups that act according to one plan. The destruction of operational command centers only paralyzes for some time their ability to maneuver, but nothing else. The ability of troops to fight does not change. Each group has its own local supply lines. Thus, hitting lower level command and supply elements limit the maneuvers and ruin the supply lines of combat troops, which reduces their combat readiness in about a week or week and half. This is because they have their local depots and small trucks that cannot be targeted.
Today we are told that the key problem the ISIS troops are facing, and that is why they are forced to withdraw in certain areas, is the absence of ammunition. But this became so only now, whereas the first strikes were made on October 7-8, or even earlier. Right now, by parachuting their ammunition, the US are neutralizing the action of our air force to destroy ISIS supply lines. This ammunition will be distributed through various routes by individual trucks and cars to frontline positions of ISIS troops. The overall picture is this: the Russian air force increases the strikes to destroy the infrastructure and supply lines at different levels, but this does not result in sharp reduction of combat ability of the ISIS troops, only limits their ability to maneuver and limiting the amounts of available ammunition. This explains why, after the Syrian army used up most of its ammunition creating the “fire wave”, which helped to get through the ISIS defense lines, and the capacity of Syrian artillery was reduced, that stopped their advance. Increased strikes of Russian aviation at depots and supplies lines do not dramatically reduce combat potential of frontline troops. As far as the panic among ISIS fighters, the fact that Russia joined the war caused a shock at first. But now this shock has worn off. ISIS actively initiated counter-offensives; they restored their command structure and can coordinate their actions on different fronts. So, we cannot say that there is panic there today.
FATEEV: What is you prediction about the war in Syria in the next two weeks? What should we expect?
SYVKOV: I believe that in the next two weeks the number of Russian aircraft involved will be increased due to expansion of the capabilities of airbase Hmeimim near Latakia and will reach about 60-70 aircrafts. The intensity of strikes will increase to 120-140 sorties per day. This will allow for effective actions in two directions against the terrorist groups. I hope and expect that the operative transportation unit will be formed to supply sufficient ammunition to the Syrian army to organize wide offensive with massive use of artillery some time within a week. This will allow for the strengthening of the Idlib direction, as well as of other directions, which now do not have sufficient strength, including the Southern direction. I also think that long-range aircrafts might be used against ISIS, particularly against its bases far from the frontlines. I would not exclude that the system of defense of the airbase near Latakia will be strengthened by deployment of one or two additional battalions to increase the numbers of Navy troops to about a regiment. I believe that, to ensure coordination with the Syrian troops, additional helicopter units will be deployed, primarily strike helicopters capable of acting at night. These could be helicopters Mi-28M, which have the necessary equipment. I certainly think that the numbers of Iranian troops will be increased.
In its turn, the US will likely increase the delivery of weapons to ISIS. I would not exclude that, to enable ISIS to strike Russian aircrafts, the US will supply more powerful anti-aircraft guns, not only mobile ones, but also those with higher power. Just like the US supplied heavy long-range anti-tank complexes, even though usually they supplied only short-range ones. The US might also supply more powerful rocket-launching systems, which, from Turkish territory, can “accidentally” fall into terrorist hands, where “accidentally” will be well-trained personnel, and can act against our aircrafts at heights up to 20 kilometers. This would mean serious casualties. After these losses, our air force will have to suppress these anti-aircraft systems, which will lead to gradual escalation of the conflict. Thus, I believe that in the next two weeks the tensions will increase, the intensity of actions of the Russian and ISIS forces will increase.
I also think that greater ISIS military force will be deployed at the frontlines. I think they will be redeployed from other areas, such as Afghanistan, and they will be transported in the only way possible: by the US military transport aircrafts. As Afghanistan does not border Syria, there is no other way of their transportation. I would not exclude that from Europe or countries bordering Syria, such as Jordan or Turkey, the migration of terrorists to Syria will be initiated and supported. This is because the US cannot allow the Russian victory in the region, as the victory of Bashar Assad over ISIS, Russian victory in the area will mean that the US, at least in the near term, the next 10-15 years, will lose a chance to restore its control over the region. They cannot let that happen. Thus, at any price, by supporting any force, the US will do everything possible to defeat Assad and the Russian military there. Thus, in the next two weeks we can only expect escalation of the military confrontation in Syria and the emergence of new areas of conflict.
FATEEV: We remind our viewers that our guest was Dr. of Military Sciences Konstantin Syvkov with deep and detailed analysis of events in Syria. Thank you for being with us, watch and read free media, goodbye.
Somehow Mr. Sivkov comes up to a conclusion that the absence of the second Caliber salvo suggests that Russia ran out of supplies of this kind of weapons, and that those missiles now need to be manufactured. Although the Russians don’t really need to use such expensive munitions when they have abundance of dumb bombs at their disposal coupled with onboard Glonass guided delivery systen. They use guided missiles when needed during their airstrikes and the video of the pinpoint destruction of the bridge shows it, but unlike the Americans who must feed their military complex and thus must dispose a 100,000$ Hellfire missile every time they chase a lone scooter on a dirt road, the Russians are not hijaked by their own military complex yet. Tomahawk is over 1000,000 apiece and considering that the Caliber has a longer range it could be worth well in the area of a few hundred thousand dollars apiece. I’m pretty sure that the Russians won’t shut it only to impress Mr. Sivkov and a bunch of other military analysts. After all the Russians can’t print dollars at the rate the Americans do.
Even cheaper than cruise missiles and just as terrifying to the terrorists are thermobaric weapons delivered onto their dug-in positions: fuel air explosives that if they don’t burn you alive they suck your lungs out thru your mouth (or cause other massive & painful internal injuries). I’m guessing each salvo is only a few thousand dollars (definitely cost-effect in terms of dollars per convection-roasted terrorist).
Below a video I’m told is of a buratino (TOS-1) being used on McCain’s salaafisting boyfriends in Syria, aka ‘moderate’ terrorists (the kind that ‘mercifully’ only take 3 minutes to behead their unarmed victims instead of the usual 4 minutes that it takes the “extremists”).
If this video isn’t from Syria let us know (either way the weapon system is devastating):
The idea that Russia has only a few of these missiles is the most rediculous thing I have ever heard in my life. And to add, US sends 50 spec ops. Russia should send 50,000 paratroopers of the only we can variety.
To add why do I say this…remember Saker’s last comment when Shogui made the sign of the cross at the 70th anniversay? We’ll that is why I say that. I’m not flag waving or war mongering. US Imperial design’s have been COMMON KNOWLEDGE for decades….this isn’t some regional dispute it is an ongoing war of aggression with one ultimate aim GLOBAL DOMINANCE. Russia can no longer avoid the confrontation. Much as they have tried. They have to really deliver a knock out punch hit the glass jaw like David hitting Goliath and Russia and China are no small David’s either. They have to sober up the POWER DRUNK HEGEMON. Excuse my hollering but jezz people getting caught in the weeds….is silly.
Very interesting, and troubling, Russia should have deployed hundreds of planes directly instead of starting off with 30. And coordinated closer with Syria to make sure they were on the same level and had all the ammo they needed and Iran should have sent more then enough troops to make sure this situation did not arise.. So it seems both Russia, Syria, and Iran did the same misstake.. Russia too few aircrafts, now they need more. Syria too little ammo, now they need more, Iran to few troops, now they need more.. But now the “shock” is over and it wont be as effective as if they had, had enough planes, ammo and troops inititally. Now the enemy has time to compensate.
On the other hand the fire wave tactic certainly worked, so another shipment of ammo and the Syrian army should be applied to expand quickly again and it only need to expand alittle more to liberate the airport in aleppo.
More bad news is that from what I hear, the Syrian supply route to Aleppo has been cut off by ISIS and so far the Syrian army has failed to take it back.
“On 24 October, Army sources reported that it had recaptured the western outskirts of Ithriyah, however the main supply route to Aleppo remained cut off time”
I don’t think that’s the case currently:
This interview was great, very enlightening, although I wish things were going better of course, but I’d rather hear the truth then some propaganda fancy that everything is marvelous.
What Don’t We Know?
The Russian Leaders, including their elected President, Vladimir Putin, know (and have always known) all the information discussed by Konstantin Sivkov, and more. They were cognizant of all these (military and political) operational difficulties when they made the decision to expand their aid to the legal Constitutional Government of Syria, less than a month ago.
Their decision to expand their aid and save the Syrian Nation, (which follows their previous pledge before God to save Russia), when one understands the difficulties, and the underlying terror of the Zionist American attempts to rearm their imperialist invading soldiers in Syria, in Iraq, in the Ukraine, and a dozen other places, in every manner possible, was the bravest most heroic action taken by a nation since the Spartans marched to Thermopylae.
Confrontations with militarist fascist imperialist empires and their lackeys are no joke. It took 3 years, and rivers of blood to crush the Spanish Republic. And after victory, Franco’s forces executed half a million Republican Army prisoners. The imperialists spare no effort and show no pity. They spared none in Vietnam, with their Agent Orange, Cluster Bombs, Napalm, and the Phoenix Plan. Twelve years and 2 million dead in Vietnam, and another million butchered in Indonesia, was part of their effort’s price tag. In 2015, Europe has surrendered its sovereignty, Southeast Europe has 500 miles of trenches, half a million refugees, and crushing national debts combined with de-industrialization.
As per the war in Syria, Sivkov predicts: and I quote at length:
“I also think that greater ISIS military force will be deployed at the frontlines. I think they will be redeployed from other areas, such as Afghanistan, and they will be transported in the only way possible: by the US military transport aircrafts. As Afghanistan does not border Syria, there is no other way of their transportation. I would not exclude that from Europe or countries bordering Syria, such as Jordan or Turkey, the migration of terrorists to Syria will be initiated and supported. This is because the US cannot allow the Russian victory in the region, as the victory of Bashar Assad over ISIS, Russian victory in the area will mean that the US, at least in the near term, the next 10-15 years, will lose a chance to restore its control over the region. They cannot let that happen. Thus, at any price, by supporting any force, the US will do everything possible to defeat Assad and the Russian military there.”
Sivkov is correct. Intentionally, or unintentionally. Much of this is being done as we speak. For the Good Peoples of this planet, – There is Only Victory or Defeat!
The Russians know that!
The Syrian People know that!
The Palestinians know that!
And We know that!
For the Democratic Republics!
anon – whichever of the various anonymous posters we get here you are – I am getting tired of your posts which contain nothing but abusive comments about Americans, “British” (by whom I am assuming you are meaning English) and your exhortations to “kill kill”. Please make your future posts less inflammatory – certainly leaving out your injunctions to commit murder. I’ll let this one through with a warning. I”ll trash any more. Thanks Mod PS
If the anglosaxon evil combo England and usa can not see that russia wins then why Does russia not understand that for her survival Russia must ein by any means. which means Rusdia must threaten the main plotter of syrian war ehich is England asshown by interview of ex French minister Dumas?
Rusdia must bring s400 to Syria and kill American and British troops and their mercenaries in shortest possible time,
Unless Russia makes it costly for the life and limbs of British scumbags and American cowards these 5 evil eyeswill go on plotting. They respect terror only and they should be given that back to them.
Yes, I fully agree. Stop your English-hatred or be banned.
NO form of racism is acceptable here, NONE
Moderators: Please send any other such posts straight to the trash bin.
I dont see any mentioning of race there (was it censored first?)
But it was very poor english. Almost hurt my eyes.
And many may agree with him. But on a forum it is much better to define diffrence between a gov/countries soldiers (i assume there are few american and british civilians in Syria, Iraw etc).
And does not add much value to let emotions get the upperhand (so then no point in flaming up with “kill kill” and add nationality).
So best to not flood forum with such comments.
anon..its against the blog’s policy…and the owner of the blog just said it himself…no racism…read it again with your glasses on and you’ll see where its racist.
Foreign Policy, 21 October 2015:
Russia’s Winning the Electronic War
In Ukraine and Syria, Russian forces are using high-tech equipment to jam drones and block battlefield communications — and forcing the U.S. to scramble to catch up.
Seems to me it would have been better to keep their advantaged a secret until a real war between NATO and Russia flared up, not giving NATO any chance to catch up.
Two sides to this, each having merits. In the USSR, for instance, military and technological secrecy was far, far greater – for precisely the good reason you mention. On the other hand, they also held big military parades, annually, where they were displaying their latest heavy weapons – the purpose being to discourage the enemy from attacking. It is all about the balance of the two. One can only hope the Russian leadership got it right…
Why would one be sure this was the best they have and they don’t have much better stuff that is being kept secret?
It is preciously because the USSR never displayed their capabilities than US meddling tanks came up with the first strike scenario being acceptable win with almost no losses. I think Russia or anyone else just saying such a thing might gain some advantage but life on the planet would be extinguished nevertheless mean absolutely nothing when you can block all communications and launches and have the capability to shoot down anything you throw up. How many times have Putin now said in speeches that the US can ever win a war? Yet we find more and more meddling tanks come up with creating no fly zones, hit the ruskies so they never get up again and such nonsense. Even Russia demonstrating their dead mans switch which would render most of the planet uninhabitable has not changed the minds of the exceptional people who think even if life is destroyed around the planet, they themselves would survive and life would be better than ever and they can buy out the planet for pennies on the dollar like they do now with covert interventions. We should not even be talking about an actual face off.. Better to show them they can not win under ANY scenario.
The arrogance about destroying 7 countries who are not a threat and never were a threat just goes to show the level of exceptional gods chosen to lead the heathen to the path of righteousness is just exceptional. And to come on the world stage and preach to the heathen about that manifest destiny. We just look at the arrogance of it and shake our heads. But there is nothing we can demonstrate that would make the exceptional gods chosen rethink that we don’t want their exceptionalism. I am shocked that everywhere I look people have woken up. It is overwhelming that people around the world don’t want any saving. uTube shows a ratio of like over 95% for the Russian demonstration. You would think with the amount of money thrown at exceptonalism, that ratio would be far lower. After all, the entire MSM complex is out there telling people that exceptionalism is the way to go and that is it is only because of gods chosen exceptional that the world is as advanced as it is and we have to go forth and conquer all and give them gods religion aka our exceptional wisdom on how they should live and serve. The fake revisionist history and bluster have really brainwashed a lot of people into believing such bullshit. A great example is the MH17 and the MSF hospital attacks.. Not even a regular hospital but one staffed by volunteers from the world over to help the most needy, people who give up well paying and safe jobs to work for a few months to help the most needy. A crime of such proportion that it defies hitlers worst crimes as minor.
Irony is, that much of this shock nato got in ujraine. Is actually not even modern Russian technology.
Much of it is actually Sovjet technology.
For the people who read the daily briefing and reports of the civil war in the first months after the coup in 2014. Would maybe have read that the naf forces actually encountered ukr army using such equipment when they initiated sieges/run on new cities. (To avoid naf beeing able to call for backup from other areas. Naf was very thin at that stage, and became easier targets when they had no radio contact with outside areas for any updates etc).
Sovjet is masters at this kind of technology, and there is a reason for it.
During the early cold wars (after WW2), the allied tried to broadcast anti-sovjet information, and at same time Stalin etc did not want sovjet people to get to familiar or tempted by the west lifestyles etc).
So usa and nato are up for alot of shocks.
Like russian airplanes jamming/disabling usa navy ships. Or russian satelites. Or russian rocket technology, or russian anti-aircraft (missile) technology. Etc.
A military expert quoting figures from the media?
26 missiles from the Caspian? Why not 32? Why not launch them from the ships of the Syrian coast? It seems the missiles from the Caspian was simply a warning to other players. dumb bombs dropped from aircraft are much cheaper for a country that does not own the world reserve currency
al Nusra are the FSA? al Nusra pulled fighters off its front lines with ISIS to fight the Syrian government forces. Does it matter whether its al Nusra or ISIS holding a piece of ground. If the “FSA” was fighting ISIS they alongside al Nusra they may have pulled fighters off that front too ….?
A lot of planning went into this – surveillance ect for months before hand – though at the end of the first week they say – oh shit we forgot the ammo?
If this piece was in the MSM, those are the questions that would leap out straight away.
“… the missiles from the Caspian was simply a warning to other players …”
Konstantin Sivkov’s expertise seems to be in the bigger picture end of warfare rather than the hands on nuts and bolts end. In doing a few searches to find a bit more about him I run onto an article (at wikileaks) where he was intervened by Stratfor. It was about the bigger picture of terrorism and he came across as an expert. This also fits with the section that Peter J.Antonsen (above) pointed out.
I agree with you Peter,
That’s why I think Sivkov is doing his patriotic duty of confusing the enemy by dishing out disinfo (hurting his own credibility, by mis-predicting several events to distort the possible directions of attack from the Russian & Syrian military and threat perception of the terrorists; i. e. taking a hit for his team – The Russian military).
This wouldn’t be the first time I’ve seen this: Just before the 1st Gulf War, Western military figures would give interviews in which they kept pumping up the combat effectiveness of Sadaam’s Republican Guard even going as far saying they were better than regular US army infantry – 2 days later the republican guard was shattered like glass.
You are right, of course, that the missile attack from the Caspian was carried out for political rather than military purposes.It demonstrated not only that Russia has long range cruise missiles but that they are probably superior to the Tomahawk in both range and reliability, On the other hand all 60 US Arleigh Burke destroyers are equipped to fire Tomahawks and can carry 90 or more each while only a handful of comparatively small vessel are believed to be fitted for the new Russian missiles. “Experts” claim that Russian destroyers aren’t so it’s quite possible that the Russian fleet off Latakia doesn’t contain vessels that can launch them. In any case, even if the Americans are (once again) falling behind technically they hold an enormous quantitative advantage.
As for FSA: From what we read their people didn’t vacate positions north of Aleppo voluntarily but were driven out of about 50 Square miles, in considerable disarray, by ISIL. The SAA took advantage of the disorder to occupy some of their positions.
Ammo?? What the hell? But it’s possible that this is an excuse conjured up to explain stalled attacks. I’m watching the airport fight west of Aleppo as an indicator of coming events.
I think it was a warning mainly to Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia. That is why the chimped out so much after that.
there is a funny story, my brother in law told me many years ago… he was traveling with my sister (his wife), a work travel (they are journalists), and they first were to Jamaica and later to Russia… I dont remember if was Yeltsin’s time or early Putin’s… I think it was Yeltsin’s time…
so… once in Jamaica, whenever they needed or asked for something, the Jamaicans always said, “No Problem”… (is a kind of slogan of the country) but at the end of the day, nothing worked as planned, most things became a problem … my sister and my brother are very relaxed people, so, they dont really care… anyway …
then they went to Russia … in Russia was the opposite, when they asked for something, the person in charge always answered “problem”, but in the end everything worked fine, like a Swiss watch, no problem at all!!! Despite being funny, this story somehow revealed to me a little bit of Russian spirit… if I’m not wrong, the Russians does not try to make a problem appear smaller than it actually is, on the contrary…
I tell this story to say that I have no doubt that the Russians knew from the very beginning about the real difficulties that could arise in the Syria’s war … moreover, was a very important step for Russia, do not believe they have engaged in this conflict without measuring realistically all the difficulties … and following the Russian spirit, it is much better to deal with the problems in a realistic way than underestimate it…
sorry for my english, definitely is not my best skill
greetings from Brazil!
the Russians does not try to make a problem appear smaller than it actually is, on the contrary…
You are absolutely correct and your example about saying “problem” and then getting it done is spot on.
“the Russians does not try to make a problem appear smaller than it actually is, on the contrary…”?
I think the dreaming alligator was having bad dreams and woke up grumpy.
For a pessimist the glass is half empty. For an optimist the glass is half full.
Optimism = flag waving…..?
That annoying Putin should have let you have your holiday.
Realism doesn’t have to be any less determined than optimism.
I say this not to elevate Isis crazies, but the Anglo flag wavers and other flag waving fascists never could after a war grieve for their enemies and for the war itself. Thus they could not grieve for their own lost well enough to live fully either. I think a different kind of determination, guided by grief, is helpful.
flag waving = hating others becuase they tell the truth.
Great, Cold War spending is back with Cold War type proxy wars all over again. Same sh*t, different proxies. But the U.S. can’t spend like a drunken sailor anymore like in the good old days, so who is going to pay for these regional wars; illegals who only work in the U.S. in the first place so they can send their money back to Mexico to feed their families back home? Thing is, maybe Russia and China can actually outspend the U.S. taxpayer this time around. Americans can’t afford either guns or butter anymore.
Russia cant exactly throw around money either, so far the war costs Russia 4 million each day – according to western sources.
Thank you Saker & Seva.
Quite informative. It calls one’s attention to how important it is that Iran should become fully committed– and remain so.
It’s my belief that Obama has become point-man for a more prudent faction which desires to step back and to at least temporarily share power w Russia and Iran. In my opinion this faction still desires a global oligarchy but would like to rely more heavily on usurping national sovereignties thru supranational institutions of monetary and trade control.
The more warlike faction has been in power since Bush Senior’s time. This Bush/neocon/Hillary/Petraeus/CIA/arms manufacturer faction also holds sway in much of the upper-level military, especially the navy– and the faction is much more powerful thanthe Obama/ anglophile/Rockefeller group faction. While Obama surrounds himself w neocons and speaks in their rhetoric as cammo, he has been able to use the power of his office to affect the course of action. He removed the Patriots which were enforcing a no-fly in Northern Syria; He eradicated a buffer zone created by Gen Allen & Erdogan even though it had been publicly announced. He severely undermined the Pentagon program of training “moderate” rebels through a variety of strategies. He is now, in the face of unrelenting opposition from all sides, singlehandedly holding off calls for TWO no-fly zones (north & South) and steadfastly maintains that the US will NOT confront Russia. Only General Austin of Centcom has publicly stated that he does not recommend a no-fly & buffer zones.
Do not be fooled by Obama’s revolting rhetoric. He must not confront the other faction on ideological grounds, but only undermine where possible. I don’t know whether Obama is playing this role due to a carrot, a stick or by commitment. I know that he has been playing such a role at least since the Geneva peace talks on Syria in 2012, when he tried to end the war but was foiiled by Hillary, Petraeus, and Jeffrey Feldman plus others.
I know that it is difficult to consider, but look at this: At the time of the Iranian nuke conference– which went on & on– Obama’s less reckless faction still wanted to solve the Syrian crisis. Seems the terrorists have actually slipped their control & certainly negotiations alone could not solve it. Obama does not have sufficient control over the US military to have been able to send them in to eradicate the terrorists but leave Syria & Assad standing: the Obama faction made a deal for the Russians and Iranians to do it.
In understanding what is truly going on, separate Obama’s statements of intention and actions, from mere descriptive rhetoric. He does not have full control of the military & I believe he cannot control whether ammo drops occur. This is very dangerous.
Yup, CIA decides whether ammo drops occur or not. Obama doesn’t control a lot of things, but a lot of things control him. These CIA folk have more connections than a switchboard. Abraham Zapruder was CIA, his wife was Jackie’s dressmaker, Allen Dulles was Jackie’s “Uncle,” George de Morenschildt mentored both Lee Harvey Oswald and Jackie, and JFK himself was friends or acquainted with ALL these people. All a damn Dealey Plaza was filled with CIA snapping pictures and rolling film. Obama has probably been shown it all from every angle, undoctored, uncensored, he gets the picture. Seriously, is Trump sure he wants to be president? Can he afford the pay cut? He doesn’t seem like somebody who takes orders very well.
Trump is working for the Bushes
That’s very intriguing. Please explain. So Trump knows where his bread is buttered?
Thank you for posting this and I think speaking for the vast majority of the readers here we value a ‘time out’ from the ‘flag waving’ and the taking of a long, hard look at the battles ahead without triumphalism. With that being said, while Sykov is undoubtedly correct regarding some of the logistical hurdles the Russian expeditionary force, the SAA and Iranians have to face, there have been signs this weekend that the jihadists continue to lose men and momentum while the Russian campaign grinds on.
1) The ISIS attack on the Syrian Arab Army’s main highway in concert with Jubhat al-Nusra, while revealing a vulnerability and the need to widen the advance, also exposed them to Russian bombing.
2) ISIS is trying to launch an offensive in the east Aleppo area, in part perhaps to draw SAA assault away from the Kuweires military airport, since the Islamic State and FSA/AlNusra’s handlers all fear what could happen if Iran brought in attack helicopters or were able to airlift in troops and equipment to that point as a FOB. Very likely the ‘FSA’/AlNusra and ISIS supply lines to Turkey north and west of Aleppo towards the Euphrates would come under night time fire and face the risk of being cut off by a sudden SAA/Iranian/Hezbollah push. So the notion that ISIS can always melt away, and live to fight or infiltrate another day is flawed. The Islamic State has to occupy a certain amount of ground otherwise it’s just a bunch of jihadis sitting in Turkey who even there could fall under Kurdish attack or at least face the threat of individual assassinations.
3) The Daily neocon Beast is bragging about the CIA-trained jihadists taking two tiny villages in Latakia province, presenting this to their stupid and gullible hipster readers as proof the RuAF campaign has failed and the Langley trained jihadis are some sort of TOW shooting Rambo supermen. In reality that contigent will probably either withdraw or be annihilated this weekend by SAA GRADs/Smerch or Russian airpower.
4) The SAA announced after all the ‘FSA’ and neocon boasting about killing lots of Iranians — actually 13 in total verified deaths two of whom were generals — that they or Russian air strikes have started decapitating multiple Al-Nusra and ‘FSA’ Coastal Brigade units. The Latakia terrain will allow the jihadis to hold out maybe another two weeks, but each time the pattern is the same they occupy some high ground or a village and get blasted by bombs or Smerch/TOS1 before retreating with heavy losses.
5) The manpower the SAA has and the Iranians have put in seems inadequate for now, but the neocons/globalists behind Al-Nusra and ISIS seem to assume their Salafist forces are basically limitless. The evidence that ISIS is now recruiting teens and Al-Nusra is trying to use pre-teens as soldiers and runners suggests otherwise.
6) We have not yet seen the full extent of Gen. Soleimani’s surprises for the Saudis, which I expect will include increasingly brazen assaults not only on Saudi/UAE troops inside Yemen but also bold attacks on Saudi troops and bases in the SW part of the country. I also think messages will be sent and warehouse or ships full of TOWs and any MANPADs could start blowing up in Saudi, Qatari/Bahraini or Turkish ports before too long.
7) The U.S., Saudi and Turkish ability to resupply ISIS while denying any ties to the terror org is far from established. I think we will see more damning evidence leaked along the lines of the Turkish oppo fingering Erdogan’s people as behind the East Ghouta chemical false flags.
Now that’s what I call an excellent SITREP on Syria. Thanks for your summary: it’s a reality-check on the reality-check interview
I loved Dario’s comment too, it gives a clear picture of a Russian trait to caveat and understate and then deliver like ‘clockwork’.
Dear The Kulak,
Thanks for your post. Some further updates.
The FSA is now calling for a meeting with Russia in Egypt:
Someone’s getting worried…….though they still spout drivel about Russian attacks.
and the US/SA have decided to continue to provide arms to “moderate” terrorists:
The SAA has also eliminated another senior Jabhat al-Nusra commander, who has been killed in the Syria’s province of Hama. That’s 2 in the last 24 hours:
and to add possibly in this excellent summary, the involvement of NATO special forces on the frontline. I wonder how much of an combat role that they have?
I made similar observations as you (privately) regarding Obama and I tend agree with a lot of what you’ve written however I differ on a couple of points which I’ll state later.
Note that in Hitlery Clinton’s recent 11 hour grilling the Republican head of the bengazi inquiry, Congressman Trey Gowdy, revealed that both Obama and Biden as well as a US admiral and other military personnel were against regime change both in Libya and Syria, the chair stated that they believed that long term result would be very bad – it would lead to massive growth in terrorism and regional instability. Gowdy also revealed the it was Hillary that kept on lobbying Obama and other naysayers for military intervention in Libya (gowdy was actually defending Obama and laying a case that it was Hillary’s incompetence that has lead to the mess in Libya and the proliferation of terrorism). Hillary was unable to refute a single of his charges regarding this issue. Secondly, it was implied that both the State Dept and amb Stevens along with the CIA were involved in weapons running (taking khaddafi’s weapons caches and shipping them to the Syrian “opposition”). It was the US Navy that refused to rescue Amb Stevens despite requests from the state dept and CIA (perhaps due to his weapons running activity). Note: the only Americans killed in that incident was 2 state dept employees (including Amb Stevens) and 2 CIA contractors. The US Navy let these people die, despite having special forces available in the area.
Here’s where I differ with you:
-Obama does not belong to anglophile faction, on the contrary, he has disdain for the British. During his 1st election, the BBC was firmly on the side of Hillary (during the DNC leadership struggle) and later McCain. It came to a head when Obama was being badgered by a BBC reporter where he for the 1st time lost his temper on camera. The BBC was granted no further interviews with during the campaign. In addition the lackeys of Britain, the Harper govt., in Canada also tried to undermine Obama during his DNC leadership bid by leaking to the media a private confidentual assurance from the Obama campaign to Canada that he would not change any terms of NAFTA despite his public pledge to do so during his campaign. The leak damaged Obama and helped Hillary. Obama shipped back to the UK the bust of Winston Churchil from the whitehouse. Since he’s been in power relations between Britain and the US have cooled.
-the destabilization of Syria was planned by the British and the French 2 years before the 1st protests in Damascus – as revealed by French Foreign Minister Dumas live on TV5. It was an Anglophile project in concert with the neocons. As per Rep. Gowdy’s statement Obama was not involved.
-Both Bill and Hillary have publicly stated that the most politically influential figure in their lives was Carroll Quigley, author of “The Tragedy and the Hope”. Quigley was a well known member and advocate of the transatlantic Anglo-Saxon power establishment (that’s what his book was all about), the US side of this establishment originated from the Anglophile Wilsonian Democrat wing of their Party.
-It is the Clinton’s that are Anglophile democrats (which includes many of the neoliberals such as Zbig Brzezinski). Hitlery is also allied with the neocon lobby because she wants the campaign money and media support they provide.
-the US Navy has removed all Carrier battlegroups from both the mediterranean and the Persian Gulf. This undermines and precludes any attempt to impose a US no-fly zone in either northern or southern Syria or any kind of military confrontation with Russia or Syria. This is contrary to your contention that the US Navy is opposing Obama’s non intervention stance, on the contrary, the Navy seem to be supporting non-intervention.
I do agree with you that it does appear that parts of the US security apparatus appears to be doing their own thing and in contradiction to their titular political masters in Washington (a sort of government and policy schizophrenia) and is it very dangerous.
Espelho, I cannot confirm all of what you say. But the bit about Harper having pissed off the Obama Admin which was dragging its feet on the Keystone XL pipeline, in part because Buffet has been a major O donor but also due to the ‘climate change’ issue, is spot on. Harper’s people tried hard to buy support for Keystone XL and only ended up alienating almost as many people in Washington on it outside the GOP caucus as they did Nebraska farmers on the proposed route. While the new Canadian PM Trudeau is the son of pro-detente Pierre, make no mistake just because Justin Trudeau has pulled Canada out of the anti-ISIS air campaign and is about to drop the F-35 makes no difference to Obama. On the contrary, these are steps that anger the neocons especially the neocon National Post. I am no expert on Canadian politics but I heard this from someone who is.
And I have to agree with what the other commenters say that the Russian Air Force, spetsnaz FACs and SAA/Iranians/Hezbollah still have the combat initiative. They are forcing ISIS, Jubhat al Nusra et al to react. The widely announced ISIS and JaN counteroffensives are exactly what the Russians want — it makes it much easier to kill them when they’re attacking out in the open trying to seize towns than when they’re holed up in their Viet Cong/mujaheddin inspired tunnel networks. The ‘logic’ of the SAA advance on a broad axis seems to be to draw the best TOW gunners out by fire and have the jihadis keep frantically calling their sponsors in Riyadh, Doha, Ankara and Langley for more. Only to find out the hard way that Russia’s ELINT can detect and triangulate the locations of their CIA-provided ‘encrypted/safe’ satellite phones for bombing he latest TOW shipments, or jam them as necessary. The terrorists will soon learn the hardware not only cellular phones but also satphones are big blinking beacons guiding Russian bombing missions to their spots.
Proof that pigeons still have a place in war.
Meant to type ‘hard way’ but it came out ‘hardware’. Sentence still kind of makes sense that way. Not to spill the beans but I suspect already the Russians ability to hit ‘FSA’ who though their sat phones were difficult if not impossible to triangulate for brief periods of use has come as a nasty shock to their CIA handlers.
Anon – pls stop post after post about England/ish. We get the point you are making. Mod TR.
Quote “-the destabilization of Syria was planned by the British and the French 2 years before the 1st protests in Damascus – as revealed by French Foreign Minister Dumas live on TV5. It was an Anglophile project in concert with the neocons. As per Rep.”
Exactly. Blaming others for the crimes of anglos is a neasy past time for those who do not want that England be identified as the mainlotter of syrian destabikisatiob and thus sorted out accirdingly.
Penelope, this–to me at least- is particularly astute and penetrating analysis. None of us can possibly know if Obama has given Putin a wink and a nod to proceed Russia’s the current limited operation or what John Kerry’s game really is. There is nothing in the US response thus far that suggests that this couldn’t have happened.
My own sense is that Germany and EU countries generally are fed up with the results of US policies and exerting maximum pressure against a military response. Certainly too the factions in Washington, including those within the military, are each others throats. But there ,may be more to it than that.
In any case, thanks for the outstanding post.
Another impressive analysis reinforcing your previous conclusions. You have a whole lot kinder view of Obama than I do. But you are certainly right is averring that he has weak control over what the military actually does in the field. The state department is a teeming nest of vipers and the CIA–though Obama has his own man, odious as he is, at the helm–is a constant danger. The best way to keep events from surging out of control, is probably to do as little as possible. The next week. or so, will probably tell us where US policy is trending.
My take on this interview: very useful and interesting info., in particular, about information on recent Russian innovations in air-to-ground targeting (brilliant way to turn cheap dumb gravity bombs into precision weapons: faster turn-around, more sorties, lower cost per target) and variance in the range of Russian “incinerator”/kalibr cruise missiles.
However, I don’t buy most of the Dr.’s conclusions. I get the feeling of well placed disinfo in this interview to confuse the enemy (when you are strong pretend to be weak), a lot of what this gentleman predicted has not come true, and that’s not because he’s not competent, he’s got to have a minimum level of competence: he has a doctorate from a Russian Institute (i.e. real degree where you really have to sweat to pass the exams, unlike the baby standards in our paid private universities here in the States). No, I think this guy is doing his patriotic duty thoroughly confusing his enemy by mixing facts with disinfo. Now given that I wouldn’t want help those b-sturds in ISIL and their evil sponsors, I’m not going to point out what I think is disinfo, except to point out one harmless example of disinfo: alleged low ammo in the Syrian Govt. forces -if the terrorists think that the Syrian Army is running low on ammo, they’re not only dumber than they look (and if you’ve seen their pics, these inbred freaks do look pretty intensely stupid), but they’ll be in for a very nasty surprise.
Now let’s look at the facts that have transpired since this interview:
-the US (Kerry) has been forced back to the negotiating table by Russian success on the ground in Syria.
-Jordan has joined the Russian campaign, announcing a joint military coordination center with Russia that is to be based in Amman (if Russia & Syria were not succeeding, Jordan would not be risking the ire of the US to do this). The Jordanian supported Anti-Syrian southern front in Syria just became less of a problem for the Syrian govt.
-Iraq is making loud noises wanting Russian air-cover in Northern Iraq, to the point of making the US Central command howl and threaten to stop air-strikes on ISIL in support of the Iraqi govt. Again, if Russia and Syria’s efforts were as ineffective as this interview would lead us to believe, the Iraqis wouldn’t risk their air-cover support from the US.
-today Russia increased the strikes to 100 in 24 hrs, that counters the points in the interview.
ISIL is a deadman walking, their extermination is only a matter of time, every major power in Eurasia (Russia, China, India, Europe) and regional powers (Iran & Iraq) wants to kill them and needs them terminated (except for a few demonic psychos and traitors in the security apparatii in Britain, the US, Salaafi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey). When the girl raping property looting mercenaries that make up the bulk of their ranks eventually figure this out (after a few weeks of devastation) they’ll run and try to escape to their sponsors for protection.
“I get the feeling of well placed disinfo in this interview to confuse the enemy (when you are strong pretend to be weak)”
“No, I think this guy is doing his patriotic duty thoroughly confusing his enemy by mixing facts with disinfo”
What disinfo? The “enemy” has satellites that can read your car license plate. Not fooling anybody.
Satellites don’t give you insight into a Russian military planner’s actual strategy, neither can they tell you how much ammo the Syrian govt actually has nor can they tell you how many Kalibr (NATO designation “Incinerator”) cruise-missiles the Russians have stockpiled in Caspian Sea military ports, nor can they tell you whether Russian fleet in the Mediterranean are about to fire another volley cruise-missile hell at the terrorists nor can they tell what has or has not been agreed to with Iran or Iraq regarding airbase access.
Right now the terrorists have no idea from which direction and how hard they are going to be hit. They never expected to be hit from the East by cruise missiles launched from the Caspian Sea, satellites didn’t even provide a warning in that case despite the fact that the cruise missiles were in flight for almost 2hours.
So disinfo to your adversary to keep them scared, confused and stuck in position is still a viable possibility.
In any case, the Pentagon is not getting its intel from public interviews given by Russian military scholars, so his “disinfo” is pretty irrelevant. If his “disinfo” is to “scare” ISIS on the ground, well, neither the Pentagon nor the CIA gives a rat’s ass what they know or don’t know about anything.
Yes misdirection, isn’t that what every magician does? Those missiles were not sent just for show. Nothing is ever pure military every decision includes psych impact, future attacks, etc. It was also suggested that they were sent because the Roosevelt had a number 26 or something and also because it was Putin Birthday. We won’t know why they did what they did until the people who made the decision publish their memoirs if ever and even then get conflicting reports.
It was a good move no matter. Our little boats can take out your aircraft carrier squads type of move. More undressing of the Hegemon.
US satellites using radar in LEO satellites can see inside walls like how many people are there and what they are doing. We already know that they can see under any kind of clothing even at airports and they had to grey scale it so it wont be so accurate but the heat signature is pretty accurate to see where the baby fat has ended up on people. I would think using lasers they can also hear what people are saying if they have an opening where it can be reflected like a window. If you want to see advancement, look in the medical field. Now they are using sonar and magnetic fields to look inside the human body instead of xrays. They can peel away cell by cell and create a 3D picture of you. Add in 5-10 years of advancement to that to see the capabilities of NSA. But Russia can also disrupt these satellites where these waves, lasers, infrared and radar are bounced around so they can not get an accurate picture like being inside a smoking room. This is done so nato don’t get an accurate picture of what the Russian airforce is doing and their strategy. A lto of people think those cruise missiles were a message, but the message was not to nato but to the special forces on the ground to leave the country. I think even though Russia gave warning for them to leave, they must have moved to deeper bunkers inside IS head quarters and it was a message to them.
The aim here is not to defeat IS, but to disrupt their supply lines, put nato on notice that their advisors and intelligence sharing assets and logistics to the terrorists will be targeted. In essence placing IS as a much of mercenaries fighting small scale guerrilla warfare instead of organized army units able to take on the Syrian army with their own intelligence on the battlefield and troop movements… Turning IS into defacto terrorists. You want to see what happens when insurgents turn into army units and then lose that advantage look into the sri Lankan civil war. Libya was destroyed only because of nato airforce and special forces of which there were a lot who took out defensive positions so terrorists on trucks could break through. Does not happen in real life. A great example is the kurds in Iraq who have defeated any IS offensive against them because you need a real army and a real army unit to take defensive position. Without it they turn into flying car bombs that does no damage except to themselves.
I forgot to sign my above post (Anonymous 12:55 UTC, Oct 25, 2015) to my ID: “Espelho”, would it be possible for you to fix the ID from Anonymous to Espelho? I hit ‘post’ button before I realized I hadn’t filled in the Name field. Sorry Espelho but I have no Anonymous in current batch, and judging by the time you gave I suspect it may already be published. Perhaps you can look for it and send a “reply” with you name. PS
It’s nice to get a more pessimistic (or realistic, depending on interpretation) view of what’s happening on the ground. I have no military background, and am not an analyst’s armpit, so I can only guess and surmise. The reason why I like this interview (whether 100% accurate, or not) is that it balances out all the “good news” we get from Al-Mana, SANA, Fars. And although I fully respect and admire to the maximum these news outlets, along with Hezbollah, the SAA and the IRGC, the afore-mentioned news organizations don’t always “tell it how it is” (at least from my humble perspective). I give an example: Zabadani. How many times did Al-Mana announced it had been fully liberated and cleansed of terrorists, only to be told a day or two later that hostilities were continuing? This became tedious, especially when a truce got declared (although I’m sure the reasons for it were sound.), and terrorists are still present. So as much as I disliked reading what Sivkov had to say, it is important for someone to say it, and for us to hear it.
Another point. Putin is not the sole decision-maker here, he has quite capable people around him, so they also deserve some of the accolades. Often all we get is Putin this, and Putin that, and he certainly deserves all this praise, but lets spread it around a bit more. He’s got an awesome team with him.
Last point. Without risking WW111, how can Russia hope to put an end to the constant re-supply of the jihadists, especially by air? Land based re-supply can be sorted by taking the border areas, but do they risk shooting down US planes? I doubt the Russian leadership will risk this. Electronic interference, maybe? Or just wait until the terrorists come to pick up their supplies … and then, bam!.
One of my concerns is the Anglo-Americans may decide to hot up a number of theaters at the same time. Spread Russia thin, get her in 2 minds, etc
This really puts a finger on the key issue. Sooner or later a plane that is in Syrian airspace without authorization is going to have to go down. Sooner or later, Syria – with Russian help – is going to have to definitively claim its borders in this way. Then we will get a much clearer picture of how strong the fatal attraction of the Hegemonic misleadership to WW3 really is.
The Hegemonic strategy is ultimately no more complex than a game of chicken. The hope for the world is that they will be cowed the first time they get a sharp, hard punch in the snout. If they choose to ‘go for it’ at that point, God help us all.
I agree the U.S./NATO air transports that cross the Syrian border to supply munitions to ISIS/FSA is the critical key that keeps the terrorists fighting the war. This was clearly made by Dr. Sivkov when he succinctly stated, “Right now, by parachuting their ammunition, the US are neutralizing the action of our air force to destroy ISIS supply lines.”
These air drops are probably centrally located in order to provide a concentrated dispersion to the fighting groups in the various battle spaces. The missions fly at night and take advantage of cloud cover, new or waning moon, etc. to minimize discovery and come in low to the ground to keep the shipments from drifting out of the drop zone. The Russians have the technology to track these incoming flights using infrared satellite detection since the U.S./NATO are the only other aircraft regularly flying in Syrian airspace. Once a regular flight schedule is extrapolated the Russians can hunt the transports and attack when they are most vulnerable which is right after the drop is made and they are climbing for altitude to turn back to their point of origin. I suggest the transports be damaged rather than destroyed which will force a rescue operation to save the crew from the sociopathic “head choppers” that run with ISIS/FSA.
This is war and the U.S. is conspiring with the enemy of the Syrian government and indirectly threatening the safety of the Russian air force which is attacking the enemies of Syria. There can be no other option, no other reason not to bring down these transports. The U.S. will bluster and threaten but they stand in the quicksand of Hobson’s choice and will ultimately do nothing in response to their dead ravens.
Syvkov surely understands no battle plan survives contact with the enemy.
Perhaps this is not so much an effort to analyse the situation as it is is to downplay expectations. This is an important distinction and must be drawn. What I and several others perceived was a highly subjective interpretation of facts supported by an appeal to authority.
Ironically the Russians are victims of their own success in the information war. They have devasted their AngloZionist opponents in the battle for hearts and minds. Diplomats John Kerry, Samantha Powers, Victoria Nuland and their cadres have been eviscerated in the court of world public opinion and I’m lovin’ it! Take that Mickey:D
It is natural for people to blur the lines between these two, mostly seperate zones of conflict.
So by flag-waving you mean to say there is excessive triumphalism in cyberspace — given the difficult facts on the ground in Syria, which is perfectly logical and correct but this not how I interpreted your flag waving post.
The tactic described by Syvkov, a rain of shell fire slowly moving across the enemy front line, dates back to at least WWI where it was used to extreme positive effect on the Western Front. The Israelis use it in Occupied Palestine whenever they are faced with determined opposition. The Russians used in Chechenya. I’ve read somewhere that Canadians under the command of their own generals for the first time (Arthur Currie) were said to have pioneered it (more likely they were less bloody minded and more willing to expend the resources).
It is an extremely expensive tactic in terms of treasure, though obviously less expensive in terms of lives. If the Syrian Army did not have sufficient ammunition to carry it forward, this is a miscalculation and the buck stops with Russia’s military advisors, I am sorry to say. It is born of the Russian reluctance to become entangled in an expensive war, which is understandable but much less of a limitation for the enemy.
This is Russia and Putin’s Achilles heel and it would be good for us to acknowlege it.
There is a question of the level of commitment of all supporting parties at some level, but not the AngloZionist Extremists, who would be willing to impoverish or even destroy the whole world so long as they come out victorious. Perhaps this is a wake up call to the Russians and especially to Putin.
you put you left foot in,
you take your left foot out,
you do the hokey pokey
and you shake it all about
Putin’s been playing the hokey-pokey. The time for this is over.
Syria needs enough ammo to ground the terrorists into the ground for not days, weeks or months but if necessary FOR YEARS! They need bazillions of shells and they should also understand that where the terrorists have held they have done so partly because NATO command and control remains perfectly intact. Western Special Forces have not slipped away from their Islamist fellow nut-jobs and so continue to do the bidding of military forces working independently of the Empire’s more moderate -cough- political leadership.
To use a hockey analogy, Putin can’t dipsy doodle his way through this crisis the way he has in Ukraine.
On the information war front Putin is driving like a madman — at the UN, on American TV and at Valdai. A true leader.
On the ground he possibly prefers to play diplomatic footsie.
The AngloZionist neocons, NATOists, War Party, etc. need a good shit kicking before they will ever accept a multipolar reality based on common sense and the rule of law. Otherwise very soon Hillary or Jeb will permanently isolate the pro sanity faction in Washington and this could ultimately lead to a full blown war between East and West.
Doesn’t everybody by now understand how these psychopaths think?
They do not respect Putin and they firmly believe they can force Putin to stand down in a direct confrontation. Patreus, Breedlove and their NATO Gladio gang are angling for just such an outcome.
All of which is good to know but what is most important for victory is not in the mind of your opponent.
This is why you received such a stern rebuke from so many readers Saker. I am sure you would not put up with it if your heart were not as stout as your skin is thin. Those of us who are awakened want to see more of that stout Russian heart. It is the hope of the world as prophesized by Russians themselves and although it might not be fair or reasonable this is how it is.
I have seen criticism of the Syrian Army suggesting they are too eager to avoid killing innocent civilians caught in the crossfire. I suggest this is entirely misplaced. It is Russia who is holding back the full force of a possble Iranian intervention. Putin still believes his opponents can be brought to their senses. We all know Russia wants to avoid blame for a truly epic refugee crisis but on balance that is not his problem. Let the German Dragoness dig herself out of her own hole.
All this may indeed be kabuki theatre. There is a manipulated quality to everything I see but if so everyone can safely take their SOMA and go back to bed. Somehow I doubt that’s the correct response.
If Putin is to be taken at his word — at his many recent strong words, then it is time for him to take his argument to the logical conclusion. Phase Two, the Persian Avalanche needs to begin and soon.
Maybe Iran can just turn their Fountain of Blood back on again. That was really intimidating.
That seemed a bit sarcastic.Monuments to a peoples heroism might be different in the East than in the West.But I don’t see how that is a reason to try and demean them.Hundreds of thousands of brave men shed their blood to protect their country in that war.The fountain symbolized their sacrifice.
Uncle Bob, don’t you find anything in life ironic?
So, Bob, aren’t you aware that Khomeini was a CIA plant?
Excellent post. Thank you.
Putin’s been playing the hokey-pokey. ????
Putin doesn’t bluff. Doesn’t do the hokey pokey.
He understands the capabilities of whoever he’s working with and bases his plans on that. The total opposite of US who try to train locals to US style.
Logistics would have been factored in to Russian plans. You are basing your assumptions on the section of this article that reads like MSM.
Okay, lets set some things down nice and simple.
It appears obvious that Sivkov has no inside information of that which is currently taking place on the battlefield. His is just conjecture, regardless of how amazingly insightful he may be.
The assumption that the missiles fired from the Caspian have all but run out is laughable. There is no chance that Russia would launch 81.25% of its long range special weapons at ISIS with none in reserve. To even suggest such a thing is ludicrous.
The argument that the reason for the slowing advance of the Syrian army is due to lack of ammunition, and accepted in whole by C I eh?, is again just conjecture. There could be any number of reasons for a slower pace, if the pace has indeed slowed at all, which is disputed by some.
I think the Saker is rebellious by nature, and he perhaps enjoys ruffling feathers, hence his continued foray into the ‘stupid flag waving’ meme which he has started – to my chagrin. To me its all a side show which may have emotional relevance but changes nothing.
If Russia fails in its endeavors within Syria the consequences will be devastating for decades to come, therefore let us pray that those who have shown such genius geopolitically speaking, are just as savvy within the realm of military strategy.
A ‘Neutral US’ (?) military analysis that may be of interest.
I’m a military-illiterate, but can comprehend the presented logic, and find the comments interesting too.
However – judge for yourself :
“SITREP : the latest from Syria, “Ashura” and the 58th Russian army …”
Why does he say there is only 1 runway at Latakia? Google earth clearly shows two: 17 left, 17 right
35 left and 35 right. The lettering 17L and 17R is clearly visible. Is only one serviceable or do I have the wrong airport?
Does anybody know?
17R may be used as a taxiway. One plane lands and it would move across to the taxiway to allow the next plane to take off or land
Well, yes, understood but that doesn’t limit it all the time and as I wrote earlier there’s room for a taxiway that could be quickly built with improvised materials -it only needs to support the weight of an aircraft, not landing impact. Even a short bay to hold a landed aircraft temporarily would help.
Cyprus would make a good base; obviously the Turkish area is out but there’s a nice airport at Larnaca and just a hop away from Syria….
You are right. Prefab interlocking steel mesh panels as were used in WWII. I am sure I have seen these in a current Russian military video.
SanctuaryOne on October 25, 2015 · at 3-49 UTC suggested Larnaca airport.
Since independance from Imperial Britain, Cyprus has British Sovereign bases,naval and airforce bases i.e. NATO.
Britain and the US launch sorties at will from there,Cyprus is Sovereign in name only…..they do as they are told.
Yes, I had been to Cyprus in the past several times and saw the RAF aircraft there. The suggestion was more in humour than a serious one, just a laughable extension of the agreement signed by Cyprus earier this year to enable Russian ships access to ports there.
I had this mental image of a bristling stereotypical RAF squadron leader complete with moustache spluttering “What the deuce is going on? What are you Rooskie chaps doing here?”
Reply:”We are off to bomb ISIS in Syria, comrade, what are you doing? “It’s a dreadful bore, we are off to not bomb ISIS in Syria”.
“After you then, tally-ho, old chap, er.. sorry to be a bother but it would be frightfully nice of you if you could you take me up for a spin in your spiffing SU-34 sometime?”
“You would? Capital, old chap, simply capital!”
jirim I read in Tass a couple days ago that the Admiral Kunetsov was about to leave Murmansk (its home port) for Syrian waters and would be accompanied by a Vishna class surveillance vessel. Factual? I don’t know.
The Americans have claimed that their recent airdrops were to the Kurds, But maybe not. Ironically, both the US and the Syrians claim the Kurds–for the moment at least-as allies.
Good excuse for Russia to be in Syria for years and years, on the doorsteps of Israel with the best of Military Hardware.
Nice to hear from you again.
Go read Penelope’s post on Obama and my response to her (Obama running interference to stop intervention in Syria and Libya, Hillary, Anglophiles etc). It fits with some of what you’ve been saying for quite some time.
Let us know what you think and what do you mean by Russia on Israel’s doorstep with the best of military hardware – rejoice ? I don’t understand the comment.
In all these discussions we are leaving out Isreal. It is Israel who wants chaos in all the Muslims countries and all the Muslims countries should be very weak and fighting with each other, thus allowing Israel to expand. USA kept on supplying Israel with the Best of Military Hardware, at the same time working to destroy The Resistance.
It was Iran first, then Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Sudan, Libya and then Syria. The only ones still left in The Resistance are Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, but with very weak economically and with Antiquated Military Hardware. Putin was not allowed by both Israel and USA to sell the Best of Military Hardware to both Iran and Syria.
Iran arms industry is all home grown but without any Air Force. Due to lack of Air Force, Iran is very weak militarily. Economically, Iran is very weak too, due to sanctions on Iran with the support of both Russia and China. That leaves only Syria, which hardly had any Best of Military Hardware, such as S300. Putin was not allowed to supply them to Iran and Syria, and for this reason Israel kept on violating both Lebanon and Syrian Airspace, and bombing Syria like a sitting duck, and all this time threatening to bomb Iran too.
You are absolutely correct about Gowdy and Hillary and to quote you, “Hillary was unable to refute a single of his charges regarding this issue.”
So, I believe the plans were laid in the first term of Obama by the Deep State, to make AIPAC and Israel to believe that they are still carrying out expansion wishes of Israel. In the beginning of the second term of Obama, Crimea was given on a Silver Platter to Putin along with Ukraine to be Federalized according to his wishes too. Even the Patriot Missile are removed from Turkey under the fog of being comprised.
Now, Russia is in Syria with the Best of Military Hardware and they are there for a very, very long time to stay. In the past they just had a sea base, now they will have land and air bases too. Israel dare not to violate both the Lebanon and Syria Airspace. Iran is no longer under economical sanctions and with the money they will buy the Best of Military Hardware. Both EU and Russia will be supplying the Iranians. Russia is already allowed to supply both Egypt and Iraq.
The pundits were saying that the USA 2017 President Election will be between the Bush and Clinton. Jeb Bush is already out and this leaves Hillary Clinton. There is still lots of fog over her, and I don’t think that Deep State will allow her.
Thus, rejoice as both AIPAC and Netanyahu are history. Finally, peace can came to The Levant.
Just saw on CNN, a $750 a pill is now being sold by another pharma for 99 cents, less than a dollar. Obama is full of surprises, especially the Oil being between $50 to $80 a barrel, which is great for the Poor People of The World, in both producing and consuming countries.
We have a liberal in Canada now. There might be one (Jeremy Corbyn) soon in UK and Bernie Sanders in USA. Just connect the dots.
Mohamed…watch this Justin Trudeau…new Canadian Prime Minister
Look at the body language of both Kerry and Palestinians, it tells the whole story.
There is no Daesh, and they are defeated long time ago. Hezbollah has already packed their bags and left, but Russia is there to stay for a very, very long time under the fog of Daesh. USSR has already learned in Afghanistan that you don’t get into someone’s else civil war.
So tell us what is Russia bombing in Syria all these three weeks?
There is some remnant of resistance left against Assad, whatever you want to call it.
How you know that Russia is bombing anything?
Mohamed are you saying Saker might be a liar ?
Syria this week – Up-to-date analysis from Yurasumy: (Yandexed)
. . .
The Syrian government army and allied to her part of the “Lebanese and Iranian” volunteers under pressure to “moderate” gang of Syria all the rising mode. Terrorists waited for a massive “classical” attack which were ready and prepared accordingly surprises. For this they were ready to make sacrifices. Ho. The tactics of the government troops since last week has not changed. Yes, and this is not necessary. She works. Good work.
Groups of militants in the foreground with impunity destroyed aircraft and artillery, followed by the infantry conducting stripping areas. This tactic works well in front of the band (2-4 km), which has long gone local people. In this regard, last week was seen a new tactic: part of the army following a counterattack after terrorists allegedly rolled back and the attacking side fell into the fire bag, where destroyed.
However, the overall strategic plan of operation already seen. After stripping the rear (the area north of the city of Homs), or both (if you have enough forces) attack on a converging path near Idlib. . .
May need scrolling down to find continuation.
I see ISIS/CIA are still making snuff movies with lots of imagination and variety, but they are no longer making it to the pages of MSM? The tide seems to have turned for the headchoppers.
They just posted video of a 19 year old Syrian soldier tied up and being run over by a tank.
These guys deserve no mercy and I don’t understand why Assad is showing mercy to the people working with such people.
Where is Russia’s aircraft carrier at the moment? No reason not to use it in Syria.
There is something not quite right with the story of the US air dropping 50 tons of munitions for its allies.
Why did Russia not make any effort to destroy it? Presumably they could easily have done it since they seem to have total air superiority over Syria.
Why only 50 tons? Given that dozens of munitions storehouses have been reported as being hit by the Russian Air Force, 50 tons would not make much of a difference.
Did the US and Russia have a tacit agreement to allow this drop? If so, why?
jirim I read in Tass a couple days ago that the Admiral Kunetsov was about to leave Murmansk (its home port) for Syrian waters and would be accompanied by a Vishna class surveillance vessel. Factual? I don’t know.
The Americans have claimed that their recent airdrops were to the Kurds, But maybe not. Ironically, both the US and the Syrians claim the Kurds–for the moment at least-as allies.
i doubt that russians can predict what own military would do. or political decision would be made. they are mistery to themselves. i have no doubt that they have some nasty plan, but, they are waiting to some “pieces” to come in place. political pieces of surrounding countries. air raids just moved situation ahead. i doubt that they have to manufacture another 26 cruising m. to be able second salvo. it is funny. they had 11 target and decided number of missile per taget. that is. it is “law” for missiles, if percentage of hit is ~98%, you have to use minimum two missiles per target. but,
when i see Qatar is willing to ground invasion, they are decoding russian actions as weakness. best what russians can do. russians wasted more ammo in annual trainings than in Syria. we did not saw real war yet. i am just afraid of russian tenderness. it is wrongly seen as weakness.
I have no clue what Sivkov is talking about. The war he is watching doesn’t seem to be the one I am watching.
What I see happening in Syria currently is Chechen War like, brutal ground force battles between the SAA and its allies against well equipped, good fortified, mercenary-terrorists-armies, who suffer badly from the fact that the Russian Air Force is relentlessly bombing their supply lines, C&C centers, meetings, munition depots, extensive tunnel networks, etc. The SAA makes steady, but slow advances, village by village, hill by hill, street by street.
SAA sources report on a daily basis 200-500 causalities on the side of the terrorists. These numbers are expected to rise sharply in the coming days and weeks. It is a massacre now and it will get only worse.
Remember, this interview is almost 2 weeks old. Events he details are not what’s happening now.
Dr Syzkov’s interview is intensely interesting. It never occured to me that that global positioning (GLONASS) could be used to position iron bombs.Most of what he has to say seems very much on target. He does, though, say some puzzling things. He states that 95% of the Russian attacks are on stationary. pre chosen targets because their aircraft are ill adapted for attacks on moving/shifting targets. But isn’t close support exactly what the SU 25 (in common with the A-10) is designed for? I am also left trying to figure out where the SAA could have advanced over 40 miles in a day, what moves were designed to “surround ” Idlib and where the units so purposed are presently positioned.
But let me now, with apologies for the inelegant expedient of labelling paragraphs, list the things that-in my mind-are most apt to determine the course of events.
IRAN: I fully agree with Syzkov that it is critical to position Russian forces in Iran. I said before I ever heard of him in my post re: your Unz article. But as useful as having having air assets there might be for operations against ISIS the greatest value would surely be its impact on the European nations dependent of Gulf oil and gas and the regional “players”, especially Saudi Arabia. To have state of the art anti-aircraft missiles, MiG 31 interceptors, SS22 Sunburn anti- ship missiles, etc would tell all and sundry that there will be no chance of continuing to move oil out of the gulf if Iran is attacked. Even as things stand the pressure from Western Europe on NATO and the US not to start a fight is sure to be intense. With Russia in Iran it would take the form of a hardened veto to be breached at the cost of destroying NATO. The (soon to be) new government in Riyahd would, I think, adopt a much modified foreign policy.
There is no evidence that Moscow is planning this powerful (and very logical) move. This may be because the Iranians, who have good reason (as J Rambo astutely notes) to be chary of too intimate an embrace with Russia.
UNITED STATES: I am not at all confident that Dr Syzkov’s confident predictions of US responses to Russian moves will come to pass. It’s obvious that the Administration is embroiled is an intense and doubtless acrimonious debate as to what to do. The fact that they have just despatched 12 A-10’s to the theater suggests that they may wish to demonstrate that “Yes. We can too kill ISIS terrorists.” Was the destruction of Kurdish village unoccupied by ISIS, murdering 52 civilians, wounding and ruining the lives of hundreds more the maiden effort of the new arrivals? (No wedding parties available?) And why in the devil’s own name did the US bomb the two major electric plants serving Aleppo and make the lives of the civilian population all that much more miserable?
But, in any case, it looks to me at this point, that the Americans might content themselves with flying supplies to the Kurds, start bombing ISIS in earnest and hope to take credit for defeating them. Maybe they’ll try to cut a deal whereby the US confines its bombing to Iraq and the Russians restrict themselves to Syria. Or maybe they won’t, I was much impressed by Penelope’s post on this subject. Wherever Obama has relented to pressure to allow military action he has seen the situation go strictly to hell. He may just cover his ears and do as little as possible.
RUSSIA: Syzkov is right in saying more ground troops are needed. I’ve belabored the same point. While Putin &co doubtless have their own good reasons for rejecting commitment of ground forces, a single air mobile mountain brigade could very probably have reached the Turkish border with Latakia province and possibly even pushed up the river to seal the major supply line to Idlib and points east. This, combined with the shock of the initial air attacks, might well have stampeded opposing forces, especially the Free Syrian Army.
Well, we’ll see what we’ll see. Maybe it’s a good thing that the Russians have not “pushed their luck” too far. A move into Iran on the scale that I have suggested would be very close to “checkmate!” It is hard to say how berserk the inhabitants of our great national lunatic asylum, once they had grasped what had happened, might become or what they might do.
“Let them hate” said Caligula “so long as they fear.” If the Russians and their allies lever the Americans out of Syria the hatred we have so abundantly implanted will be less overwhelmed by fear, not only in the near east but across the planet, and our government will have more and more difficulty in enforcing its dictats. The establishment here, corporate and governmental, is aware of this, That’s what makes them so dangerous.
Thanks Saker for the translation and thanks to astute posters. Tom
Did you see the Russian soldiers moving about in Syria? How about the US soldiers moving about in Iraq? Both carry guns but the Russians mostly don’t seem to be wearing any body armor and they have the gun slung on their back. From the look of things it is almost like how the allies were treated in France after Normandy.. Surprising to see how differently the women look at the Russian soldiers in Syria.. And how the women in Iraq look at the US soldiers..
BREAKING: ISIS CAPTURES ISRAELI PILOT AFTER EJECTING OVER SYRIA
An Islamist group affiliated with the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) has claimed the capture of an Israeli pilot inside the Dara’a Governorate’s western countryside on Saturday night – the group, “Liwaa Al-Shahada” (Martyrs Brigade), is currently engaged in a fierce battle with their former allies from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syrian Al-Qaeda faction “Jabhat Al-Nusra” in this region of western Syria. According to social media activists from the Syrian Opposition, the Israeli pilot allegedly ejected from his aircraft after losing control of it.
The IDF is set to release a statement at 9am Israeli time.
DEVELOPING: Unconfirmed reports of ISIS terrorists took an Israeli pilot captive after his aircraft was downed near Syrian Golan Heights.
Why is this an issue?
Israel and ISIS are allies.
Yes the IDF made an incursion into Syria with artillery fire to rescue the free Syrian terrorists under the guise of rescuing an Israeli arab who flew into Syria. Seems the SAA now controls that border post on the Golan heights as the terrorists and IDF retreated into the occupied Golan heights after the rescue..
Guess now we know all the commotion was all about and the news blackout and why Israel was shelling the Quneitra area in Syria.
Syrian Arab Army Forces captured “Free Syrian Army” mercenary-terrorists’ base in Golan Heights
Syrian Arab Army Seizes FSA Military Base in Golan Heights in Quneitra
(FNA, 24/10/2015) ~ The Syrian Armed Forces on Saturday morning stormed the 4th Battalion Base of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the Golan Heights and took full control over the base after fierce clashes with the FSA mercenaries.
At sunrise on Saturday morning, the Syrian Arab Army’s 90th Brigade of the 9th Armored Division, in coordination with Fouj Al-Joulani (Golan Regiment) and Liwaa Suqour Al-Quneitra (Al-Quneitra Hawks Brigade) of the National Defense Forces (NDF), launched a counter-assault at the 4th Battalion Base outside of the town of Taranjah, resulting in a series of intense firefights with the Free Syrian Army’s Southern Front Brigades.
The strategical competence of the Syrian/Russian forces seem very poor, when reading this interview.
It looks so bad that I hope the interview is meant to mislead the enemy.
Damn it all to hell ! Why use up all your resources, money, and soldiers lives in fighting the tentacles of a smirking monster who because it is thousands of miles removed from the battle thinks it cannot be touched ? This strategy of fighting al-Qaeda, ISIS, etc. is simply fighting the tentacles of the American monster. These cut throat murdering scum are highly disposable just like a used Kleenex, while the REAL enemy resides in Washington.
I can guarantee that should America be removed from the picture all these chest beating Saudis and Qataris and British and French and all other Euroscum will fall into line pronto. America needs to suffer a serious missile fusillade that will completely wreck its infrastructure and cause casualties on an unimaginable scale to shock the evil morons back to a semblance of reality. Without this happening there is absolutely no way to defeat their satanic proxies on the ground as you will simply exhaust your forces fighting the tentacles instead of cutting off the head of the monster.
The world needs to wake up pronto and revise its strategy on fighting the Nazis of the fourth reich now residing in Washington and the UK.
one thing for sure , the disinfo about sukhois cannot operate in rough runways because their engines cant take FOD , is now dispelled..
look at the amount of sortie and the quality of the runway there.. dirty.. yet no sukhoi downed because of FOD.
this rumor started when Indian Airforce in training with american air force request separation of take off between planes , that caused this stupid rumor spread by a USAF colonel..
Dear The Saker and Seva – thank you for the intrerview and translation,
One thing that has changed since this interview is Jordan has actually come on board with the Russian initiative (though I don’t trust them one iota – but will give them the benefit of the doubt) which will help for the South with an information centre and Iraq has allowed Russia to stop ISIS from entering from Syria and supply routes too. If the Iraqi parliament allows Russia to get involved in Iraq fully this will also change the dynamic. This last section is the complete and utter reality
This is because the US cannot allow the Russian victory in the region, as the victory of Bashar Assad over ISIS, Russian victory in the area will mean that the US, at least in the near term, the next 10-15 years, will lose a chance to restore its control over the region. They cannot let that happen. Thus, at any price, by supporting any force, the US will do everything possible to defeat Assad and the Russian military there.
Above in response to the Kulak I have added some links which also tie in.
Lots of fluidity in this war, which already renders this excellent interview passé. Russia’s been on the job for almost 4 weeks of the 4 months of planned operations, and much has already been accomplished–particularly in the political sphere. We are witnessing the Beginning of the End of the Outlaw Empire, but we have a ways to go to reach the End of the Beginning. Smashing a scheme like Vision 2020’s quest for Full Spectrum Dominance needed to be done, and Syria has provided the opening required. We must take pains to be mindful that the conflict is global and multidimensional; that what’s happening in Syria’s important but not everything’s happening there.
I agree totally with the analysis. The US can go to bed with the devil if necessary to avoid a success from what it considers it main concurrents (Russia and China). I wrote before the survival of Syria/Assad means the survival or Iran. The Syrian army has been battered for about 4 years not only by IS but by Israel, Turkey, name it. Somehow it has managed to survive but in bad shape therefore is necessary a very decisive, energetic participation of Iran with ground troops. Russia can manage pretty well clearing from the skies.
This is what I am reading too. What’s more, the list of takfiri dead – often their names too – are published on the net on pro-ISIL sites, so it can’t be dismissed as tub-thumping by regional official sites.
I assume the reason ISIL publish the deaths is to seek more mercenaries to replace them.
Meanwhile, Kerry and Saudi (Salman) are calling for a major international push for a ‘political’ solution, though still demanding Assad must go. This is being counteracted by Russian ‘sources’ who maintain the Syrian people’s right to decide who their president should be.
The IMF has claimed in a recent report the KSA is so fiscally unsound it is only ‘good’ until 2020. There are also internal divisions, with a faction demanding Salman must step down (they claim he has Alzheimer’s). Add to that the unrest in the Eastern Province and the war on Yemen not going to plan: the Houthis are partially advanced inside the KSA border.
.Oh, and now Russia has overtaken the KSA in oil sales.
So it is going to get increasingly difficult to funnel arms from that source.
Russia is now working on closing the borders – Jordan is a recent success. Add to that the Iraqi trend towards Russia, and the sidelining of the US.
Dunford’s plan for the region is unworkable and ironically, a good mirror to the factionalism that is clearly emerging in the US itself.
Putin noted at the Valdai Club meeting that despite political differences (being diplomatic ;) with the US, there was dialogue and cooperation with the professional US military (as opposed to the corrupt hucksters working for Lockheed kickbacks and neo-con Israel-Firsters.)
I bet plenty US military personnel would rather he was their president than Obama (really Netanyahoo).
Russia has been visited by the Star Trekkers, going back in time, and now has the technology of the Star Ship Enterprise — so what should it do?
Phasor away all of IS fighters? Transport the fascists to Jupiter? Impose it’s order on the world?
Well, no — that wouldn’t work to achieve the goals of a stable, democratic, and peaceful world. No better the US invading some little nation and destorying it to impose ‘democracy’ on it. What is necessary is for people to wake up, everywhere, and take responsibility for running their world, understanding how important national sovereignty and liberty are: they have to learn the lessons, and conduct themselves sensibly according to sound principles, not simply react from fear, destruction, emotionally and ideologically.
Even if Russia does not have Star Trek technology, those same consideration need to made: what will lead to the desired goal? This is not just a physical battle, but one of mind and consciousness.
@ The Saker, This morning UK time I booted up to find a story on the live bookmark ‘Headlines’, and there was a story about Florida.
It appears that Black Bears are a problem for Florida,licences have been granted for a ‘culling’ of 360…..+?.
That story has been subsequently removed….do you wish to comment?
So some people think Russia has a logistics problem?
But exceptional people have ways around that.. They get to keep their perfect exceptionalism… by slight of hand..
“They are correct,” the DLA said. “The [quality-assurance specialist] can only give a [complaint] to a contractor if they have notified that contractor of their non-compliance. Since we were not allowed to do so, Navistar will always have a perfect rating.”
The long-term contract, which is ongoing, has cost taxpayers $21 million. But according to one DLA worker, many of the parts never arrived, showed up in the wrong packaging or were surplus to requirements.
And rather than fix the contract or process the paperwork necessary for a refund, the DLA ate the cost—and even tipped some spare parts into the garbage in order to make the problem disappear.
“DLA is paying them for parts never received,” the source added. “Due to time restraints, lack of training and just plain laziness the [agency’s quality-assurance specialists] have been disposing of millions and millions of dollars worth of new material every year.”
And now the DLA is buying some supplies then promptly destroying them—because that’s easier than telling companies to fix problems with their products.
What a DLA employee should do when a non-conforming shipment shows up is fill out the right forms to send the shipment back to the manufacturer for repacking. That is to say, compel the vendor to fix the problem.
But paperwork is a real headache. And why bother when the DLA can do the work itself or even throw away the non-conforming parts and order replacements—and, in either case, pass the expense on to the frontline military in the form of a slightly higher cost-recovery fee?
OT, for the US unfortunates in an election buildup:
Governer then Senator ……Huey Long,a dangerous man!
very apt even today…….1.08 minutes of truth.
“Governor then Senator ……Huey Long,a dangerous man!”
Yep!That’s why he was assassinated…..
Regardless of our (own) points of view regarding Syria, the concepts for a future extended Middle East – Libya, Egypt, Newer Assyria (1200 b.C.), Iraq, Iran and even Afganistan and Pakistan – already appears on the horizon.
Hence i would kindly ask you, The Saker, is there any chance of a more detailed report about the current state of Libya? (If Russia wants to defeat IS/Al-Qaeda/DAESH, Libya must be saved, too.) And, maybe there are some insights into russian politics regarding the tantalized people of Libya?
Can we call a dictatorship of the 1%, democracy?
Things are getting serious for IS.. They are getting rid of the evidence..
“Normally the Americans want hours of drones, then will want people to actually go and watch the target in person, and only then they get approval, we think from lawyers in America,” one said. “This time it took only a few minutes.”
“We did not get the former Baathist commanders that we hoped to find,” he said. “They know so much, which is why Daash had them arrested and probably executed. There were bodies all around the site, but we didn’t have time to identify each of them.”
The drone operators feared the worst, that the Islamic State was planning a mass execution in an area where scores if not hundreds of prisoners were being held. The trenches were to become mass graves.
Among the prisoners, officials believed, were former officials from Saddam Hussein’s Baath party and military who’d cooperated with the Islamic State but were no longer trusted by the jihadists.
Voting cancelled in Mariupol. See Kiev Post.
The Yemen army, backed by Popular Committees loyal to the Houthi Ansarullah movement, has destroyed a Saudi warship in the waters close to the southwestern province of Ta’izz.
According to local media reports on Sunday, the Yemeni forces targeted the vessel, which had regularly been shelling Yemeni coastal villages, with rockets.
Reports said that the warship was set ablaze due to the Yemeni rocket attacks and sank.
After the incident, Saudi warplanes and naval vessels several times bombarded the coastal area in the district of Mukha in the province.
Iran says Saudi Arabia’s execution of prominent Shia cleric Nimr Baqr al-Nimr, if carried out, would come at “a heavy expense” for the kingdom.
On Sunday, Nimr’s brother, Mohammad, confirmed that the Saudi Supreme Court and the Specialized Appeals Court had endorsed a death sentence issued last year against him for inciting sectarian strife and disobeying King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. The cleric has denied the charges.
US Secretary of State John Kerry and Saudi Arabia’s ruler Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud have pledged to further boost anti-Syrian-government militants and reiterated the need for resolving Syria’s crisis without its incumbent president involved.
In a visit to the Arabian Kingdom on Saturday, Kerry met Salman at al-Oja palace in Dareya district on the outskirts of Riyadh, where they both called for the “importance of mobilizing the international community” to what they called restoring stability to the Middle Eastern country and “the need for a transition away from Assad,” the US State Department said in a statement.
MOD: How about starting a column datelined current 25th at least?
We’re already into the 26th in M.E. time zones!
So even better would to open a new daily column at 0001Z Moscow time, at least?
Israeli general captured info:
VASILI ZAITSEV SENDS THIS FOLLOW –UP TO THE INFORMATION ABOUT THE ZIONIST OFFICER CAPTURED HELPING ISIS IN IRAQ:
The israeli brigadier general captured in Iraq, admitted the coalition and collaboration between ISIS and Israel
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“There is a strong cooperation between Mossad and senior military commanders ISIS … Israeli advisors help the organization for the development of strategic plans and military and make them direct to the battlefield.”
General Shahak was captured by the Shiite militia in Iraq and is still being held in Iraq. His captors have informed DESI (European Department for Security and Information), a european organization of security, with strong ties with Veterans Today (VT).
The following article is based on the questions that have been made to his captors. In addition, information was requested on the conditions in which he is held.
Dr. Haissam Bou confirmed exclusively to VT, the Israeli general Yussi Elon Shahak, captured by the Iraqi people, he confessed that, during the investigation:
“There is a strong cooperation between Mossad and senior military commanders ISIS … the Israeli advisors help the organization for the development of strategic plans and military and help direct them to the battlefield”
I have deleted your post because it is long and written in a foreign language I think few if any readers would have any familiarity with. This is a discussion site. How can readers discuss your views if no one has any idea what you are saying?. Could you please make sure you either write in English, which I”m assuming you know since you presumable read the article, or use a translator. Many thanks. mod PS
I say send in the Armada’s and the paratrooper’s at least 20,000 fully loaded. There is no sense in waiting for Russian planes to be shot out of the air. This to start. This is not flag waving. This is needed. And the helicopter’s have anti-missile technology 2 dozen more will do for a start. Iran needs to increase it’s troop strength in Syria and Iraq. Iraq has to expel US forces as they are actively supporting ISIS. And formerly request Russia to come in. The faster these things happen and the faster the Russian coalition establishes itself on the ground the faster a political solution will come to bear on the situation. Fully enforce a no fly zone over Iraq Iran and Syria. No incursion’s from Israel they must be told to stand down period.
This before Russia even entered the theatre directly:
55 Reps Support Negotiations to End Syrian Civil War
Sep 29, 2015
See Rep. Jim Himes’ press release and signed letter in PDF form
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
55 Representatives Support Negotiations to End Syrian Civil War
55 members of Congress sent a letter to President Obama supporting international negotiations to end the civil war in Syria. The letter, led by Rep. Jim Himes (CT), calls on the President to use the full authority of his office to “convene international negotiations designed to stop the civil war in Syria.” Signers include members of Congress serving on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the House Armed Service Committee, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, and the Appropriations Committee.
FCNL’s lead lobbyist on Middle East Policy Kate Gould made the following statement:
“This is the strongest signal the House of Representatives has ever sent in support of a fully inclusive political settlement to end the Syrian civil war. As the eyes of the world are on the catastrophic Syrian war and refugee crisis, there is finally an uptick in long over-due momentum for a political solution to end the killing in Syria. Just since this letter began circulating, this momentum has continued to build at the United Nations General Assembly, with President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting on the sidelines to discuss next steps in negotiations.
As countless Syrian experts around the world have pointed out, the Syrian civil war will only end through a political settlement. As the letter indicates, Russia and Iran will be necessary parties to this process. It is a welcome step forward for lawmakers to work with the Administration in renewing and sustaining intensive diplomatic efforts to finally put an end to the bloodshed
To bad corporate headquarter’s wasn’t located on the front lines. But they should be targeted for protests and boycotts.
Germany seeks to extract itself from the Syrian conflict
by Thierry Meyssan
Germany is attempting to escape from the rôle it was assigned during the Syrian conflict. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, is trying to organise a summit meeting between the major powers in order to negotiate a peace settlement. But this project promises to be very difficult to realise, in part because Germany bears a weighty reponsbility in the war, and in part because France persists in seeking to destroy the Syrian Arab Republic.
VOLTAIRE NETWORK | BERLIN (GERMANY) | 30 OCTOBER 2015
FRANÇAIS PORTUGUÊS ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΆ РУССКИЙ ITALIANO فارسى عربي ESPAÑOL DEUTSCH
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Angela Merkel is attempting to change her policies in the Syrian conflict.
When the United States first attacked Syria in 2003, they asked for the help of Germany and Israel before handing the mission on to the United Kingdom and France. At that time, the German Secret Services were working with the Mossad on the assassination of Rafic Hariri, by providing a weapon which only they possessed . The idea was to provoke a popular anti-Syrian uprising, then to send in the Marines to push back the « occupier », an idea which conformed to the plan by the US Committee for a Free Lebanon and Daniel Pipes’ Middle East Forum, as exposed in « Ending Syria’s Occupation of Lebanon : The U.S. Role » . However, the operation failed because Syria, pointing out that it maintained its military presence in Lebanon at the request of the international community (The Taef Agreements ), evacuated the country as soon as the popular demand was made clear.
Germany was still playing a decisive rôle with Israël when US ambassador Jeffrey Feltman organised the International Independent Investigation Commission, tasked by Ban Ki-moon with discovering the truth about the Hariri assassination. Berlin sent ex-prosecutor Detlev Mehlis, who had already rendered preposterous service to the CIA by attributing a Mossad terrorist attack in Berlin to Mouamar el-Khadafi, and ex-Police Commissioner and BND agent Lehmann, who was later implicated in crimes committed by the CIA in their secret prisons . But here again, the operation failed, because after accusing Presidents Émile Lahoud and Bachar el-Assad of having planned the assassination of Rafic Hariri, the Mehlis Commission collapsed in the scandal of false witnesses .
Germany once again became involved in the current war, this time on the side of the United Kingdom and France, by entrusting the Presidency of the meeting of the « Working Group on Economic Recovery and Development » of the « Friends of Syria », to a high-level diplomat, Clemens von Goetze. In June 2012, during a meeting in Abu Dhabi, he proposed sharing the wealth of Syria between those states who would confirm their readiness to sabotage the Genva Conference. Even before they had managed to overthrow the Syrian Arab Republic, the allies were dividing up the concessions for the exploitation of Syria’s gas. The German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, created a permanent secretariat, endowed with a budget of 600,000 Euros, to manage the pillage of Syria’s hydrocarbons, a job it entrusted to Gunnar Wälzholz, who had also fulfilled the same task against Afghanistan .
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In Berlin, January 2015, a ’march for tolerance’ united German political personalities and Muslim leaders in reaction to the attack on Charlie Hebdo in Paris. Madame Merkel marched arm in arm with Aiman Mazyek, the General Secretary of the Central Council of Muslims in Germany. Although he pretends to have broken with the Muslim Brotherhood and to maintain an open debate, Mr. Mazyek uses his organisation to protect Milli Gorus (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s supremacist organisation) and the Muslim Brotherhood (the active matrix of jihadist organisations, presided by Mahmoud Ezzat, ex-right hand man of Sayyed Qutob).
When France sabotaged the Geneva Conference, Germany helped to realise the plan – conceived in 2007 by John Negroponte, then Director of US National Intelligence – for a Nicaraguan-type war. The plan called for the multiplication of terrorist groups in order to « bleed the country dry ». To this purpose, it provided the international coordination of the Muslim Brotherhood, present in Aix-la-Chapelle since the Cold War. This is currently where the retreat from Ahrar el-Sham by al-Qaïda, Daesh, and the other terrorist groups is being organised.
And yet today, the Merkel government, noting the efficiency of the Russian bombing, the hesitation of the United States, and the upheaval of international strategic balance, is attempting to withdraw from this lost combat and make peace with Syria. This reversal of course corresponds to the long-expected rapprochement – greatly feared by Washington – between Berlin and Moscow.
This evolution can be explained to the public by means of the immigrant crisis. Prepared a year in advance at the demand of the boss of Germany’s heavy industry, Ulrich Grillo, and activated by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres, and the speculator George Soros, hundreds of thousands of people have crossed the Balkans to go and work at reduced cost in Germany . However, the operation was interrupted by the Russian military intervention, since Germany feared that jihadists fleeing the bombing might mingle with the immigrants and refugees. Currently, the German population now opposes the influx of foreigners because big business has profited from the occasion to abolish the minimum wage in several Federal states. As a result, the « refugee crisis » supplies a possible alibi for the change of policy concerning Syria.
In any event, the rapprochement between Germany and Syria will be difficult to negociate. The Minister for Foreign Affairs and ex-Director of Intelligence, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, hopes to be able to organise a 5+1 type meeting (the Viennese format for Iran) in order to solve the Syrian conflict. But Russia is forcing it to become more ambitious, and to bring to the table President Putin, Chancellor Merkel, President Hollande and President el-Assad (the Normandy format as used for Ukraine).
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 “Revelations on Rafik Hariri’s assassination”, by Thierry Meyssan, Оdnako (Russia), Voltaire Network, 29 November 2010.
 « Les plans de l’US Committee for a Free Lebanon », par Thierry Meyssan, Réseau Voltaire, 8 mars 2005.
 “Taif Agreement”, Voltaire Network, 23 October 1989.
 “The Assassination of Rafik Hariri: A Biased Investigation”, by Silvia Cattori, Translation Alexander Davidis, Ard Vangern, Voltaire Network, 15 September 2006.
 “The disgrace of the Mehlis Commission”, by Talaat Ramih, Voltaire Network, 12 January 2006.
 “The “Friends of Syria” divvy up Syrian economy before conquest”, by German Foreign Policy, Voltaire Network, 30 June 2012.
 “The phoney « refugee crisis »”, by Thierry Meyssan, Translation Pete Kimberley, Voltaire Network, 7 September 2015.
Thierry Meyssan French intellectual, founder and chairman of Voltaire Network and the Axis for Peace Conference. His columns specializing in international relations feature in daily newspapers and weekly magazines in Arabic, Spanish and Russian. His last two books published in English : 9/11 the Big Lie and Pentagate.
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Moscow and Washington work together to restructure international relationsMoscow and Washington work together to restructure international relations
The link to this article is is: http://www.voltairenet.org/article189129.html
There should be solution to this problem.
1st: all those stationary targets should be destroyed by TU-22M bombers ,using dumb bombs and satellite guided ones eventually.So, there will be no extra logistical problems for Latakia airfield, The only problem should be political one as Iran should not allow these bombers to fly over Iran because of relations with Turkey (which supports Al Nusra and right now is angry enough because of Iran sending its “volunteers” to fight there). In that case those bombers flying from Russia should bomb “only” the ISIS targets, and not Al Nusra ones.
2nd There should be 50 Su-33 and Su-25 planes starting from Russian aircraft carrier stationed near syrian coast delivering about extra 50-100 sorties per day supporting syrian ground troops.
I expect we will see the TU22m bombers by the Nov7th, 2015. They need to take the Kweries ariport.