First, the biggest news of the day: the city of Izium fell to the Russian forces. Here is a map with Izium (Изюм) on the top and then two sets of arrows: the red ones show how the operational cauldron in the east of the Ukraine can be locked along the Lozovaia-Pavlograd while the black one shows the same option, but much closer to the surrounded Ukronazi forces along an Izium-Pokrovsk axis.
Which of the two happens first does not matter because the outcome is the same: Izium was the linchpin of the entire Ukie disposition and the last city to create not just a free fire zone in the slowly shrinking bottleneck for the Ukies to escape, but also the city which was defended by the best Ukrainian forces (the 81st UAF brigade).
Boris Rozhin (from whom I took the 2nd map) had this to say about what this means:
In the evening, reports came that our forces kicked the AFU out of Izyum (although there are reports that there is still some resistance in the southern districts of the city), where a part of the 81st brigade of the AFU defended in the city, which retreated from the city and is now covering it with artillery and mortars. The positions of the AFU were actively covered by aviation. Izyum is of decisive importance for the entire northern part of the AFU grouping in the Donbas. The highway has been cut (now with ends) Kharkiv-Izyum. Control over Izyum creates prerequisites for an offensive towards Slavyansk from the northwest. In addition, controlling Izyum, there are opportunities to attack Pavlograd and Barvenkovo, with further cutting of the Donetsk-Pavlograd highway, control over which will lead to a full operational encirclement of all AFU forces in the Donbas.
I full concur with this analysis. For all practical purposes that cauldron was about 80% closed “by fire” for a few days already, this time it will be closed by Russian/LDNR forces meeting each other somewhere in that big no mans land between Pavlograd and Donetsk.
There is also major combat actions happening along the south front, again, I will begin with a map:
The black line is the shape of the cauldron which the Russians apparently intend to lock around the Odessa region. I did not color the entire Ukie coastline in black, because I assume that it is currently under fire from the Russian Aerospace forces and the Black Sea Fleet. According to at least one video I saw yesterday, it looks like the Black Sea Fleet’s Large Amphibious Assault ships are now within visual range of Odessa. At the end of that envelopment Russia will have full control of the entire coastline from Dniester еstuary (or even from the Romanian border) to the Russian region of Rostov-on-the-Don!
Banderastan will now become a landlocked “country”!
This western region is where all the Western weapons and the international Nazi brigades are being concentrated right now. Some estimates say that the force levels defending this territory might be as high as 100’000 soldiers. Keep in mind that the highway between Kiev and Zhitomir has been cut off by Russian forces and that except for small roads, Kiev is slowly being encircled.
Whether Russia will bother with this region or not will largely depend on the West.
Right now the West has declared total informational and economic war on Russia. Furthermore, the USA has a long experience in creating “special pockets” from which to attack a country.
Finally, I would not exclude a NATO movement into the western Ukraine to “protect” the “innocent civilians” and “refugees fleeing the Russian massacres” being “murdered en masse” by the “indiscriminate bombing” by “Putin’s hordes”.
The rather pathetic zig-zags about “yes we will deliver fighters to the Ukraine” and “no we won’t deliver fighters to the Ukraine” seems to suggest that there are still a few folks left at Mons and the Pentagon who understand the risks of such a trick. They also must realize the futility of the entire concept (militarily speaking, this entire plan is absolutely ridiculous, do you need me to explain why?).
God willing, Lavrov will be able to get Kuleba to see the situation as it is and that Kuleba will be smart enough to understand that if these negotiations fail, there will be more negotiations in the future, only in even worse circumstances for the Ukies than today’s.
Next, political news. The Russians have now officially declared all the following countries as “hostile”:
What does this mean?
At the time of writing (14:00 EST) all the Russians are saying is that there will be “financial and diplomatic consequences”. If you find out more details, please post them in the comments section!
I expect both diplomatic and economic sanctions to be announced in the coming days. And they will hurt like hell.
According to Maria Zakharova, Sergei Lavrov will meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmitrii Kuleba, in Turkey under the auspices of the Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu. According to the Turks, the topics will include “a ceasefire and a political solution”. This will happen “in the near future”. This was agreed between President Putin and President Erdogan, at the request of the latter. This will happen during the Antalya Diplomatic Forum.
While I was writing this I got the info that a Polish helicopter brought an Ukronazi delegation for talks in Belarus. According to the latest from Russian negotiators, it was yet another wasted day. But these negotiations will resume as soon as the Ukies get their latest orders from Uncle Shmuel.
The obvious problem is that the Ukie delegation has no authority, so all they do is show up, make some general statements of good will, then take all the (written) Russian proposals and say they need to retire for “consultations”. Obviously, these consultations are not with anybody in Kiev, but with the US and its EU colonies and the latter must at all costs get as many people dead (on both sides) as possible.
And yet, in spite of that, and while I don’t have much hope about any such talks, I will always welcome them: many thousands of lives could be saved if the Ukies capitulate. So even if the possibility to achieve anything is tiny, it is worth trying, even if just a few lives are saved.
However, in the mean time, there are numerous reports from many towns and cities under Nazi occupation of the local municipal authorities warning that anybody using a humanitarian corridor leading to the “occupier force” will be shot on sight and with no warning. There are many confirmed instances of such fleeing refugees being executed by the Ukronazis. The Western presstitutes are blaming it all on Russia, what else is new?
From the point of view of Russian combat operations, today has been most successful and tomorrow promises an even quicker domino effect on the Ukrainian defenses pretty much everywhere except the far west (what I now call the mini-Banderastan).
Politically, the only important news is that Lavrov and Kuleba are supposed to meet soon.
And yet, I will end with an area of great concern to me.
Here is how I see it and PLEASE tell me I am wrong!
- The Ukraine has lost the war, she will be disarmed and denazified
- The West is waging total informational and economic war against Russia and believing much of its own propaganda (which is fantastically dangerous!)
- The Western public has been sold nonsense about the Ukies being at the gates of Moscow and Russia being ready to surrender. Which means that when the reality will become undeniable there will be A LOT of VERY butthurt folks out there pointing fingers.
- Economically speaking, Zerohedge put it best: “Carnage everywhere“!
- Even much worse will be the folks who will try to still overturn this outcome. I am talking about the true nutcases in NATO (and in some sections of the USA ruling elites) which simply cannot even *imagine* that Russia holds all the cards, including the military one.
- I can easily imagine, say, a Polish column with weapons and mercenaries crossing into the Ukraine and being wiped out by Russian missiles. I ask you this: what will NATO do next?
In fact, let me rephrase my question this way: is it at all possible that this war can end without a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia, keeping in mind that NATO cannot win and NATO cannot accept defeat?
Sadly, I don’t think so anymore, that kind of folly is a direct consequence of the Western PSYOPs which have convinced the folks in the West of two crucial things: 1) Russia cannot win and 2) Putin is bluffing.
I think that the folks in the Pentagon are smart enough to know that this is all bull, but the Eurorodents inside NATO and the EU?
Wouldn’t a military/political defeat of NATO in Banderastan not risk bringing down NATO as an organization?
Again, please tell me that I am wrong, but I don’t see how this war can stop before Russia shows NATO that nobody in Russia is bluffing and that any NATO country dumb enough to test that will be the target of missile strikes.
So, militarily, this war is pretty much over.
The future of a mini-Banderastan is impossible for me to guess.
But I am seriously concerned that this war might expand and directly involve NATO/EU countries.
And it might involve nuclear strikes by either/both sides.
So, please tell me I am wrong and that the West does still have enough brains to step back from this abyss?
UPDATE: for the first time Russian TV has shown the Donbass operational cauldron. I added the contours of this cauldron in the making with the think black line:
I’m sorry if I’m venting my frustration but I would like to have a broader overview of the events of the last weeks and the perspectives for the russian armed forces.
I know that it’s impossible to know what were the plans of the Russian staff were, but when I see the pessimistic mood of Strelkov I can’t help but being shaken. On the other hand the resolve of Lavrov, Putin, and all the other Russian officials seems rock solid. I feel completely lost right now, who to believe ?
You have to have followed Strelkov for a long time to understand. As someone that followed his exploits from the very beginning of 2014, I can assuredly tell you he’s always pessimistic and cynical, that is his nature. Also he admits he doesn’t have any actual facts or details and only follows online maps of public osint accounts. He has no real clue what Russian MOD’s military objectives are and he has no clue of what the actual strength numbers are on each side, down to the tactical level of where each unit is positioned, how strong are the units etc. You can rest assured, in short, he doesn’t have much clue of what is happening. Russia is continuing to secure the cauldron and is making progress of capturing literally dozens of villages every single day. When the cauldron collapses, Russian forces will be consolidated into a massive front of troops that will be unstoppable. You’ll see.
I’m actually seeing a LOT of Americans who either support what Putin is doing or are dead set against the idea of US intervention of any sort in Ukraine. Notably, America’s most popular TV news personality, Tucker Carlson, isn’t buying any of the “Putin = bad, Ukraine = good” propaganda bullshit. My sense is that a steadily growing number of Americans are finding out about what guys like John Mearsheimer have been saying for years (see here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&t=120s) and agreeing that they make a whole lot of sense. This is rather surprising, given the absolute fire hose of propaganda bullshit being aimed at the American people.
I took the liberty to go back to the Saker post for day 2 of the operation and see what has evolved since then.
– Kherson: liberated -> OK
– Nikolaev: fighting taking pace in outskirts -> It’s day 13 now, and Nikolaïev is not yet taken
– Konotop: taken by Russians : OK
– Chernigov: blocked by all sides by Russian forces -> not yet taken to my knowledge
– Melitopol: surrounded -> OK
– Mariupol: is under attack, street fighting -> still surrounded.
– Severodonetsk: under attack -> status unknown
– Kharkov: very heavy mopping up operation -> far from being solved. What should we make of all the rumors and what have the Russians lost there ?
– Suma: mopping up operations : OK
– Kiev: blocked from the West and under attack, the authorities are distributing weapons -> not yet fully blocked, one bridge remaining
– Gostomel airport has been captured by Russian forces -> OK but what to make of the rumors
– Zaporozhie: Russian forces expected there tomorrow -> only fully controlled one week later
– A land corridor from Crimea to Russia should be opened by tomorrow -> Done
– Odessa: big question mark – so far, not Russian attacks reported (that I know of!) -> status unchanged
Now about Donetsk and Lugansk:
“That being said, the LDNR forces did break through in at least two directions today, which means that the life left for the Ukie artillery shelling the LDNR will soon come to an end.”
Ukie artillery still goes on. I can’t for the life of me understand how that’s still possible.
Overall it’s a mixed bag. It’s clear that most of the advances were done in the first 3 days and since then the offensive has gradually slowed down. There are for sure explanations for this, starting with the expansion of the supply lines. However I can’t shake off a bad feeling. Is this performance good ? Could it have been better ? I know it sounds insecure but I’m really bipolar now, switching between optimism and pessimism every 5 minutes.
Strelkov’s commentaries are getting more cautious/negative by the day. Yesterday he explicitly stated that in his opinion the military objectives cannot be achieved without additional troops deployed. In know, he isn’t the know-everything and lots of people have reservations about him, including the Saker but it’s noteworthy n onetheless and shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.
Supply chain issues seem to abound with tons of equipment abandoned/dysfunctional due to tires kaput or no fuel available. And yes, there is a ton of Ukrainian psyop there but not all of it is.
The military victory looks a lot harder to achieve than initially assessed (probably – we can’t know for sure ss we don’t know the original planning). the political seems even harder, given the ever increasing destruction and loss of human lives 8civilian and non.civilian).
I hope for the best but as I said from the beginning I just don’t see the post-war exit strategy here.
Ukraine is about twice the size of the western part of Poland the Germans took in September 1939, and it took the Germans a full month. I wouldn’t be so despairing of the Russians’ chances yet.
Maybe Strelkov was a little bit overly optimistic before, and forgot how big the country is.
Most important: cauldron(s) in the east closed.
Now expect crumbling and contagion of defeat for regular Ukraine army.
About Nazis, believe in Russian/Tchetchen tactical skills: they have Syrian experience, they will extract them as bad teeth.
The Peacekeepers are advancing 30-50km a day. That is a super fast speedy Gonzales rate of advance. Militaries simply don’t move all that fast. They are remarkably cumbersome organizations. 30-50km a day is record breaking.
The military part of the war is effectively over. The regular UA is basically no longer a real fighting force, just a few scattered units fighting uncoordinated rearguard actions. The Azov and other fanatical nationalists plus US/English Mercs are grimly fighting on. These units are unable to get re-supplied since they are (as of last night) cut off in the Eastern Caldron. They’ll take a week to crumble.
The Big Cities are not going to be stormed, they’ll be isolated and starved out until they capitulate. They are barely relevant to the military situation. Any UA units inside the big cities are useless and every day lose more of their fighting capabilities.
Watch the Odessa situation – if the Peacekeepers are able to cut of Odessa by the weekend; then you’ll know the score.
Also watch carefully for signs the Peacekeepers are going to liberate the Lemberg area.
My guesstimated timetable :
12.March – Eastern Caldron collapsed
20.March – Odessa firmly surrounded
27.April – Lemberg isolated
This roughly matches the 2003 destruction of Iraq pace of operations.
Andrei, regarding the human shield issue, there could be one solution. Russia could use an EMP weapon say above Mariupol. What that does is to destroy ALL electronics that is not hardened to MIL spec. That includes all communication devices, including satellite phones and mobile and landline phones. Also radio and TV. It also destroys all night vision devices. The Russian forces will of course be warned to keep their electronics away. Then, Spetsnatz commandoes can move in the night, stealthily seek and take out individual nests. I believe that Russia has the technology of non-nuclear High Power Microwave (HPM) weapons.
Some EW systems are probably used. Russia has the technology but it looks like Russian generals are not very creative – my opinion is that they stick too much to traditional, proven solutions. It is a failure of a system, Russia has many talented individuals, that’s for sure.
Then what happens to all the medical equipment and other life saving communications technology?
Similarly there are automobiles and myriad of other things with embedded electronics
EMP is a last resort weapon. It comes before one drops the big one
The Daily Express in the UK has just reported in one of its articles that over the past few months America has deployed near 100,000 soldiers into Europe, a few thousand at a time. This, along with the massive psyops campaign to condition us for war tells me that NATO is seriously preparing for an attack on Russia at the right time. I hope I am wrong, but I see little to convince me otherwise. I would be interested in the Saker’s view on that possibility, as well as others of you.
Well the view on repeating bullshit from propaganda outlets is clear; just do not do it.
Who cares what a tabloid rag inn the UK prints? I know it’s lies and so should you.
They needed a coalition of 600.000 men to kick Saddam out of Koweit.
There wouldnt attack Russia without 1.5 M …
The Daily Express & all other western fronts of propaganda are the last place you should be looking to for credible information. For NATO to attack Russia in a ground assault, they would need a minimum of 2 million soldiers. A minimum – realistically, they would need far more than that, about 5 to 6 million. That 5 to 6 million ground invasion force would have to be well prepared, well coordinated, highly motivated, well equipped. No, NATO is not going to attack Russia, not in that way – & more than likely, not in any way, it is too great a risk for them. Already the economic fall out of this current escapade is well beyond anything they expected, when politicians begin to see that they are risking not only their current term in office, but their entire political careers, they will start to speak a different language. The most realistic outcome of all of this for the combined west & NATO is an explosion in recrimination & infighting between them – leading to the dissolution of NATO & a radical change in relations between Europe & the US.
thanks a lot for your work from Germany.
While I think your analysis is spot on, I do not think that the outlook is just as gloomy. While Foggy Bottom might sstill be drunk on US exceptionalism, the Pentagon will have realized by now that the US forces in Europe are no match for the Russian forces. And while NATO cannot admit defeat, they can, and will, accept it none the less. The US have been forced to leave Afghanistan, and they did so without resorting to thermonuclear genocide. They will leave Ukraine as well, have their propaganda outlets make it kinda look like an almost-win, and that is that. No EU country has the balls to start a fighting war with Russia, much less so to defend the Ukies.
Just my two cents.
Why do you think the same Pentagon brass that has caved in so abjectly in carrying out the Wokification of the entire US military, purely at the command of a few political operatives, will have any clout or guts to force the berserk neocon administration to see reason and step back from the brink?
That’s assuming you’re right that these uniformed mediocrities recognize the inferiority of the NATO military and don’t think the opposite, which I don’t assume at all. After all, they just got done rewriting strategic and tactical doctrine to trumpet the new “fact” that woke versions of “diversity” are combat-advantageous. How can the Russians beat that?
Imo, the only way to avoid a larger war would be that Ukrainian themselves, some generals and politicians, declare the end of the hostilities with Russia and take the lead in the mopping up operation of the whole country. At this point it doesn’t matter if Ze and few others form a government in exile, it will be a situation similar to Venezuela, the West can shout and put sanctions but nothing will happen.
But where are these guys, the sane part of Ukraine? I hoped that the majority of the Ukrainian army would surrender in the first days, but they are still fighting in a desperate situation. Maybe they are waiting the right moment to switch side to avoid being called traitors? I cannot believe the Kremlin started this operation without direct contacts but only relying on a hope for this. Otherwise, if Russia has to do everything by brute force, you are right, it will not be over.
” some generals and politicians, declare the end of the hostilities with Russia and take the lead in the mopping up operation of the whole country.”
That is more or less what some German (not Nazi) generals tried to do in 1944.
Save their country from abject destruction by eliminating Hitler and taking over command of the war.
Even if they had succeeded in killing Hitler, I wonder whether they could have wrested control of the country/ war away from the Nazis in the ranks and at the top.
Which is not to say that a group of Uke Army generals could not manage to flip this switch.
Yes, the example fits. Here they would be backed by Russian army and intelligence, and almost half of the population, so it should be feasible. But they must show up at some point. In the Orlov’s blog, it is reported a political manifesto for this, but I don’t have news about how many are adhering.
I don’t know how to tell you this in a way you will not take deep offence. However, let me try.
Americans have been taught by their religious teachers that Russia will not attack America – “prophecy says so!” is their source of confidence.
In part this comes from accepting the Book of Revelation as valid. I clearly do not accept such Johannine sources. For many years, and certainly the working lifetime of senior US officers radio and television had programming putting this view. Many Pentagon people have said about this material when a revival of this teaching came about “Its good to hear this being preached again.”
Americans casual response to the present crisis is precisely because of this.
Scripturally, there is no basis in such assertions but for many years SDAs and others have looked to John.
Unfortunately, my bleatings over the period 2017 to today have fallen on deaf ears. So be it.
The late Dr Rodderick C. Meredith died preaching this – and he did have influence.
When people from birth hear a message from ‘authoritative’ sources they dont depart in old age.
The answer is nobody is going to hear Russia are the Medes and they ARE God’s battle-axe not US-Britain.
So, “Mr Putin is bluffing” rules the day. But he is God’s instrument and even if he wants to bluff he isnt going to be allowed.
Draw your own conclusions.
The Biblical key, I believe, is found in Daniel 7 with the four beasts. Mistakenly interpreted by many to refer to Babylon, Persia, etc., Daniel specifically says these were kingdoms to come while receiving the vision right at the end of Babylon’s reign.
The first beast is described as “a lion with eagles’ wings. As I watched, it’s wings were pulled off and it was lifted up from the ground. It was made to stand on two feet like a human being, and a human mind was given to it.” (Daniel 7:4 NIV). This is referring to England (and by extension America). The Romans were called “the eagles” by the Britons and the symbol of England is a lion on its hind legs.
The second beast is described as a bear. “It was raised up on one side, and there were three ribs in its mouth between its teeth. It was told, ‘Get up and devour much flesh.’” (Daniel 7:5 NIV). This is Russia, and I believe we are seeing the fulfillment of this today with Russia dominating the world scene for a time, perhaps even hundreds of years. A Russian might have a better perspective, but I speculate that perhaps the ribs are Napoleon, World War I, and World War II, three great and terrible victories that continue to be “chewed on” by the Russian people.
Ever since I came to this understanding almost 15 years ago, I have been watching Russia rise in power and prominence as the West, led by England and America, declined. I believe that the West is under God’s judgement (as evidenced by being turned over to their sin per Romans 1:24), and that Russia is being used as God’s instrument to exact retribution for the sins of the West. It has been my prayer that Russia would be led by righteousness. To this day, it would seem this prayer has been answered.
I am an American by physical birth but a citizen of God’s kingdom by Spirit and identity. Whether America disappears as a result of this judgement or not, God’s kingdom will remain unshaken as it transcends all nations’ borders.
Well – if Russia is the second beast then it will also be subdued (Dan 7:24) by the fourth one.
Eventually, yes, but I do not believe it will be in our lifetime.
“Wouldn’t a military/political defeat of NATO in Banderastan not risk bringing down NATO as an organization?”
I’d suggest the opposite is true. NATO was dead until the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine. Now, everyone who suggests Russian Federation is peaceful towards her neighbours is seen as The Enemy by the general population…unthinkable only two weeks ago.
Now, everybody understands the Russian Federation is by any means different from the United States and NATO, crushing one country after the other. They are willing to send people that beat, torture, kidnap, mutilate, lay waste to buildings, villages and cities and kill people, thinking this is OK, just because they wear ugly clothes that flag them as people commiting crimes.
This raises a sentiment in the general population to staff people with this kind of ugly cloth, but different colours on the shoulders, too, for “revenge crimes” that are accepted because “ there is no other way“ and Russian Federation broke peace and her opponents find themselves in a justifying state of calamity: Everything that might promise to stop this machinery of murderes is worth to be undertaken, even a counter-machinery of murderers.
I’d suggest further, it was intended to trigger this kind of sentiment in NATO which pretty much disengaged from its purpose of existence. For this purpose, Ukraine was built up and dropped into the abyss of war – just to scare the s##t out of these disengaged countries.
They know now the “Russian Threat” is real. And they will be willing to send people comitting all kinds of crime, thinking, this is OK because they wear ugly cloathes in masses and well-equipped for a huge amount of money.
Sankt Florian, Sankt Florian, verschon’ mein Haus, zünd’ and’re an (Saint Florian, Saint Florian, spare my house, ignite others)
Finally, I would not exclude a NATO movement into the western Ukraine to “protect” the “innocent civilians” and “refugees fleeing the Russian massacres” being “murdered en masse” by the “indiscriminate bombing” by “Putin’s hordes”.
The author should possibly be a little more careful of making sure that heavy sarcasm is labelled as such. There are just so many zombies who would read this and assume it is proof of what the MSM is feeding them constantly. Alternatively it could also be intentionally taken out of context and used as evidence by those who are engaging in information warfare. Perhaps I’m being paranoid, but writing (sarcasm) takes only a moment and clears things up for the zombies.
I agree, re sarcasm.
I don’t think I am stupid, but sometimes I am confused by comments that I later figure out must be meant sarcastically. There are levels of sarcasm/irony. Light sarcasm is harder to “get” than heavy sarcasm. But even sarcasm that sounds heavy to the speaker might end up misleading some readers.
I don’t understand.
There are supposedly 60-85k troops cauldoned in the Donbas…..and now learn…. “This western region is where all the western weapons and the international Nazi brigades are being concentrated right now. Some estimates say that the force levels defending this territory might be as high as 100’000 soldiers.”
ie at least 100k, perhaps 150k Uke troops not yet brought to battle. Whereas I understood their military was 75% degraded?
75% of combat capacity. It’s perhaps difficult to put a percentage on it, but if most of the heavy equipment has been disabled, and most of the facilities have been destroyed, then 100k, perhaps 150k relatively inexperienced Ukie troops won’t help much.
“Who Wants War with Russia?
The neocons and their allies might be making it happen”
“After considering the parallels with Israel, it then occurred to me that maybe there was the usual angle, meaning that it was all about “protecting” Jews, the argument that succeeds in Washington where all else fails and makes the Bidens, Blinkens, Pelosis and Schumers stand up and salute. Even a befuddled Donald Trump has seen the light and is now calling the Russian intervention a “holocaust” and is joking about false-flagging US F-22 fighter bombers as Chinese and “bombing the shit out of Russia.” The Jewish media is also showering Zelenskyy with praise, referring to him as a genuine “Jewish hero,” a modern Maccabee resisting oppression, a David versus Goliath. T-shirts bearing his image are being sold that read “Resisting tyrants since Pharaoh” while the Jewish community in New York City is raising millions of dollars for Ukrainian aid.”
The price of gas in Europe just sailed past $3,300 per thousand litres.
https://ria.ru/20220308/gaz-1777126313.html (in Russian)
I guess it’s schadenfreude, but I really want the Groundhog to see his shadow in the EU…six more weeks of winter :-)
I listened to Alexander Mercouris of The Duran yesterday, and the question of nuclear exchange, given NATO intransigence, was discussed. Alexander said while no one can rule anything out, his sources indicate that there is a hotline between the Pentagon and the Russian military high command. They are outside of all the posturing and narratives from whichever side. They are not going to cave to the pressure for nuclear intervention. I’m pinning my hopes on the accuracy of this, I have the greatest faith in Alexander’s investigative skills.
How have you came to conclusion that Russia’s sanctions will be severe to anybody?
As I told a friend last week:
I am not afraid of Russia, I’m afraid of how our politicians will react.
Our politics in EU is corrupt and completely dumb. They have no clue.
Our PM of the Netherlands, Rutte’s reaction to Putin’s invasion:
“Is he delusional?”, he asked. And he sounded sincere when he said that, so that means he has nog clue to what’s going on and really believes his own lies. It’s sad. Very sad.
Europe needs to stand by itself again and we will, but how and when and at what cost?
Will we fight a massive war with Russia?
Will we plunge into a civil war?
Will we end up as a sort of New European Soviet Union, behind a new iron curtain?
Or will we do what’s necessary? Liberate ourselves from the US and make peace with Russia?
Maybe reorganise the EU a little bit into better functioning bits. Something like a German EU, a Latin EU which could both form a military alliance. And last but not least an Eastern EU which could be neutral and a bridge between the east and the west.
No European Soviet Union for you guys, more like the 4th Reich with your 21st century Christal Nacht.
I just made it to what was the bottom of this thread early on a Tuesday morning in the U.S. Thanks to saker and all the commenters for all the information they’ve provided, information we don’t get through our mad dog MSM.
A few comments:
1) I don’t see many talking about the current fragility of the American government. We still have a former President claiming he was cheated at the last election, and a variable 30-40% of voters agree with him. The U. S. Capitol was occupied by some of these people attempting to thwart the inauguration of the next President. The context for that is that Trump was under intense attack from America’s Deep State before he ever took office in 2017, and that internal war led to two failed attempts at impeachment.
The new President, a 78 year-old who has trouble reading a teleprompter, was at 37% approval just before this war began. Inflation threatens to rise into the double digits, something not seen since Carter was President. Funded by a Federal Reserve committed to the principal that no one rich will ever lose their money, no matter how foolish their speculations, billionaires and their agents are buying up American housing, pricing out our young and turning everyone into renters subject to the whims of the rich and the relentless demand of the billionaires for maximum returns on their capital.
Our government has failed miserably at dealing with Covid. The Democrats have now adopted Trump’s and BoJo’s “let ‘er rip” policies, papered over by complete reliance on ineffective and possibly dangerous “vaccines” that do not prevent infection and can never stamp out the disease. During the omicron wave, few if any businesses were able to keep regular hours because so many employees were too sick to come to work. Shelves emptied out as supply chain problems became critical. Our health “industry” has been ruined by being under constant emergency operations. Nurses and teachers are striking and quitting in droves. Despite the American government’s trying to eradicate the disease by pronouncement, Covid remains sand in the gears of capitalism here as it lowers American life expectancy below that of China. And China’s is heading up while ours is heading down.
The breakdown in social cohesion has spread to school board meetings where it is not rare for things to break down into violence, one neighbor against another. Traffic lights have become optional to obey. School children continue to shoot one another. Only 32% of Americans thought the country was on the “right track” in a Rasmussen poll taken a few days ago. (Polling on the war has shown that support for the war is concentrated among those over 65 and with income over $200,000, in other words, the hopelessly deluded Professional Management Class Boomers, the lawyers, accountants and PR flaks for the billionaires.)
America is teetering already. Putin picked a good time to give it a push if we can all survive the reaction of these lunatics.
2) The world alignment has now changed for all to see. The U. S. is running around the world desperately looking for oil, especially heavy crude. They’re forced to go hat in hand to two countries they have treated ruthlessly for decades because they dared to look after their people rather than follow Washington’s orders. It’s hilarious. Combine America’s fragile state with rising gasoline prices, the one thing Americans, with their SUVs and 100 mile/day commutes, will not tolerate. You can see why the U. S. would gratefully buy oil from the devil himself now.
But the biggest change is the role being played by China. After Blinken idiotically took the opportunity of his first meeting with the Chinese to arrogantly lecture the Chinese about the usual “human rights” BS, and after he tried to show Xi photos of Putin’s military buildup only to have Xi share that with Putin, now the Americans must beg the Chinese to cut off the Russians. Otherwise, his sanctions will only hurt his own country and its allies’ citizenry.
The Chinese are now in the position, as someone put it in these threads, of the capstone, holding together the arch of the world’s nations. Whereas since the fall of the USSR, one had to go through Washington to get their approval before doing anything, even in one’s own country, now one must go to Beijing to see what the Chinese think. In my opinion, the world is far better off with the Chinese in that position. They actually appear to care about their people–or at least most of them. Here in the U. S., we care only for the rich and famous. Everybody else is collateral damage.
3) I am a new reader of the saker, though I am familiar with another Russia-sympathetic site, Moon Over Alabama. One new thing I’ve enjoyed from our host and his commenters are their observations about the worldviews of the participants in this drama. For Russians, the role of the Orthodox Church is obviously very important. In the U. S., we are a country with a huge split in current worldviews between Evangelicals who would like to turn the clock back, in their most extreme, to a “Gilead” viewpoint as laid out in the Margaret Atwood book and TV series “A Handmaid’s Tale.” On the other hand are the “woke” liberals who would like to take us “Gattaca,” a Frederich Miller book also made into a movie. In Gattaca, one’s status is determined by one’s genome, and the very tippy top layer of humans are genetically engineered to the engineers’ idea of perfection (apparently, Jude Law). It is my belief and hope that both will fail and a third worldview, focused on humans achieving harmony and peace with each other and with the Earth, will emerge and replace these two dystopias.
But make no question about it, this war is about more than territory or resources. It is about who humans are and how they should relate to each other and the planet they evolved in.
Again, thanks to all for your wisdom and information.
I enjoyed your comment, and am an American as well.
Sadly, your take on Evangelicals is incorrect. No Evangelical wants to become a Handmaid. As a matter of fact, the Evangelicals are running fast after all things Woke.
Perhaps you are confusing Evangelicals with some odd, tiny, strict religious sects (think Gothardism, ala the TV Duggars)?
There are few true Christians in America, whether Evangelical, or Roman Catholic or Orthodox or Reformed. Our ‘gate’ is esp narrow, given the obesity of our greedy souls.
yup, the other significant convoy is the one heading to Wash.D.C.
There are a lot of vets(and active), that though patriotic, would not piss on the the white house after what has been done to the Jan6 prisoners, the covid reaction cult, the summer of love with the mainly peaceful protests, the crt brigade, the gun-grab-istas and basically everything coming from the ususal suspects, that of course now need Tommy…or Hans or Francois or Gino to fight Vladimir, on account of Volodimir(rosenstein)…ridiculous, yet tragic.
Add to this what is coming as a result of the sanctions – there is chance for runaway implosion of the controls over traditional america. If that happens, you will see american cities starting to resemble any of the uks(some might say you dont even have to wait, just look around right now). Blockading them is not entirely out of question.
I mean imagine pushing a conscription drive through North America?
What would you do? paint george floyds face blue and yella…or paint Kyle Rittenhouse with the same colors?
Cos thats where you are.
To illustrate the stance of the rank and file of US military, watch
“president jocko willink: the ukraine situation”. not entirely unreasonable, if a bit bellicose. or listen to Jocko Podcast 316.
I am weary of the Chinese alliance. I hope that side of the equation is covered by the strategists.
PS, just been at a ukie border crossing: -5 celsius, women and children freezing in line nonstop, and the end is nowhere in sight. so far as well organized reception, as one can hope for considering the numbers.
The men will have to break through one of these days. The pressure is enormous. That day the present media narrative is dead in the water.
Also, the attention span is brief. The effect on gas prices could last longer than it. So, after a while, people will not want to think about Ukraine anymore, and less as the explanation for high gas prices. How can politicians not know it? They forgot. What’s “worse”, in frustration people could swing to even sympathize with Russia’s security arguments.
@HMP – very nicely said. And I liked the tinge of optimism at the end. If you read some of my posts, we likely agree on a lot of things. Peace brother….
“Again, please tell me that I am wrong, but I don’t see how this war can stop before Russia shows NATO that nobody in Russia is bluffing and that any NATO country dumb enough to test that will be the target of missile strikes.”
The war criminals running NATO and AmeriKKKa are imperialists but they are not insane. In the United corporations of AmeriKKKa an annual trillion dollars in corporate welfare masquerading as “ defense “ is a pretty good racket. The average buffoon in AmeriKKKa has no problem with this and I can’t see Wall Street and Beverly Hills doing anything to jeopardize it. Any confrontation with Russia militarily will end in catastrophe for the West and the Pentagon knows this. There will be no confrontation with NATO. The Donbas will accede to the Russian Federation and the West will continue it’s self inflicted demise, especially economically speaking.
Thanks for another insightful analysis Saker.
I live in the EU and have basically stopped watching / reading / listening anything news-related from this corner of the kindergarten, as it is simply sickening and also totally pointless. What for, except getting a heart-attack or start fighting with people either at office or doing the groceries, because of course they KNOW, right. This has become zombie land, denial-land.
But to answer your question, I think the answer is quite simple… I mean to avoid this potential and very real confrontation with just one NATO country and then we have article 5 being triggered… as either they apply it or Nato dies at that very second.
That risk is very very very real, as there is nothing more dangerous than facing lunatics who are absolutely convinced the bullets will ricochet on their bodies… because so have they been told and that mu be true.
But the answer is screaming all over the place: cut the gas deliveries to the EU, 100%, pull the rug under herr scholz’s feet and let him explain to his nation that from now on they will have to warm their homes with dried cow manure and leave their nice limos in the garage.
I know that Russians have been pushing away this option for a long time now, also because it is a nice compensation for the murderous sanctions, it’s pretty sweet when gas prices are close to EUR 4,000 / m3, I get that but… unless the europeans understand that it is not they who have the Russians squeezed by the b…, but that it’s actually the other way around, the risk of military confrontation will only keep increasing, especially as the Russian military operation continues.
So in my mind, even though this would imply another big hit at Russia’s economy, I think this is the last thing they can do to stop this upcoming war… pull the plug out from the EU, let their engine choke and come to a complete stop.
Believe me that at that moment, the eurorodents will finally start thinking “hey, this isn’t what we signed for… nobody told us this!” and the scholz, macrons, etc will have no choice but to pause and think, as they will simply not be able to fight any war with Russia, even if they wanted to, and they will have enough going on the home-front to keep them busy, believe me…
So my conclusion is that Russia now needs to pull the plug for good and only re-plug when those morons in the kindergarten have calmed-down and realise, like the ukronazis, that they are in no position to dictate anything, they just have to sit still and nod.
I tend to agree.
Placying Mr. Nice and hoping to get points for this only works with other nice people.
It doesn’t work with those who are actually working against one.
It does not “convert” them into nice guys who will play nicely in the playground.
It just gives them more time to work against you and your interests.
That said, Before Russia pulls the gas plug—or, rather, sticks it in—there needs to be a major, major media campaign explaining to the populace exactly what is going on. In the old days this kind of info attack behind enemy lines was accomplished by sending planes over with flyers for people to actually read.
I don’t know how this information blizzard could be accomplished in the modern context of a complicit media and social media that will not broadcast the information to the people.
I believe you are correct – the Russians hold all the cards. But instead of an immediate and complete shutdown of the energy flow to Europe, my belief is the energy should be throttled down. It would not take much to cause enough unrest in the populace to generate a possible major revision in Germany’s attitudes towards Russia. You can already sense that this is happening with current statements from the chancellor, as well as French president Macron.
No dissent has yet surfaced here as a “Red Scare” is in full motion. But that doesn’t mean that there is a huge segment of Americans that are worried about energy impacts on their ability to pay mortgages, car payments, insurance, medical care, and food. I expect them to express their outrage by decimating Democraps in the coming election.
En français, puisque je ne suis pas sûr d’y arriver en anglais.
Ne pensez-vous pas qu’on puisse arriver à une sorte de “gentlemen agreement”, sur le partage de l’Ukraine, au cours d’une nouvelle conférence de Yalta ?
La partie libérée resterait Russe ou indépendante avec une forte association (style RU/Biélorussie) et le Banderastan irait à… qui le veut. Une sorte d’Ukraine Galiço-Vollinyenne ?
Merci pour tout, depuis toutes ces années. Vous n’êtes pas seul !
regarding the Ukrainian “peace talks” negotiation team and their requirement to take orders from outside; I think that they are having to also take into consideration what the Ukronazis are directing them to say and do.
If they don’t follow direction they have an example of what will happen to them with poor old Denise getting the chop…
The Ukronazis used false negotiations in the lead up to the Maidan coup as a delaying tactic to prepare themselves for the battles ahead. Are they delaying now to get themselves into a better position when Ze and co finally surrender. Like escape deals with the US & NATO to get their leadership out of the country and out of the reach of a Russian war crimes court…
They also must realize the futility of the entire concept (militarily speaking, this entire plan is absolutely ridiculous, do you need me to explain why?).
No. I would assume the “Ezgandar” Missile would pork such groupings each time they assemble.
I am from Germany and I just want to assure you, we here in Germany and all countries between us an Russia know how to do this dance. We have lived under these conditions since the End of WWII. We all want to stay alive and know how to handle this, have trust.
Dein Kommentar ist etwas kryptisch.
Kannst Du erklaeren, was du mit “this dance” eigentlich meinst?
A massive development on the economic front seems to slipped under the radar. Thanks to Andrey N for pointing it out to me.
On 18-10-2021 the Russian government came with this decree:
It regulates compensation for using patents without permission of the patent holder. The latter will receive 0,5 percent of revenue resulting from the use of the patent. That is actually quite a fair amount (it’s half a percent of revenue, not profit).
Then on 07-03-2022 this comes along:
The compensation scheme no longer applies to countries on the hostile list. This means their patents are no longer recognized as such in Russia, as long as the country in question is on the naughty list.
This is not limited to production/use for domestic use in Russia only! The potential repercussions of this measure are immense.
I’m from Italy,
our coup and deep state driven government doesn’t represent Italians. Hope Russia sincerely fights to end unìpolar globalism and supports national sovereignty in all countries.
Here in USA I am appalled that teenage girls are running things in the EU and USA. Like what’s-her-face in charge of EU and Kamala and Samantha Power and Victoria Nuland and Susan Rice here in USA. How many people in the Ukraine has Nuland caused to die violently? It’s like the old movie ‘Mean Girls’ LOL. And Biden is led around by the nose by his lefty wife and hasn’t got a clue of what’s going on. We need serious men to take the reins in USA and EU and NATO. God help us.
Yesterday the New York Times reported on its first page that the Ukranian air-force remains “intact”, without further explanation. Nobody says the aerodromes are intact. They also reported that a “high Pentagon official” said Russia was recruiting fighters in Syria. On FOX television, Hannity and his excellency (no pun) Newt Gingrich told each other that they believe Ukraine can beat Russia. Hannity is “beginning to believe it.” The Donbass beat Ukraine, so I don’t think Ukraine can beat Chile. Would it beat Brazil in an existential war? Well, since Brazil is a more powerful country and has 212 million people, I don’t think so. It’s laughable for Gingrich and Hannity to say that on TV. They’ll become more certain of it if they keep repeating it. It’s the power of bias, because they would say it’s their honest belief (it looked like it).
The high Pentagon official is another story: How could they look for fighters in Syria without affecting the reputation of their “glorious” armed forces (their proud history)? Would not the Russian army reject this? Why get Syrian fighters when Chechnya is begging to send its own soldiers to finish the war in “one or two” days – would not Chechnya be slighted? There are more than ten such questions. I don’t know who is helped if Russia concludes: “these people” are untreatable, do not listen, do not understand, are liars, are waging economic war, etc. Something often said on TV is that war must be avoided but I notice they only talk to themselves about what will cause war and what won’t, without considering that it also depends on how Russia evaluates “these people.”
A good friend from England [living close to Coventry] and an Englishman has written to me that up to this month he has been paying Lstg 50 for heating [in his 3-rooms apartment]. As of next month, he will be paying Lstg 200 for the same service
This is how quite many of Finnish Generals and high commanders are seeing things even many years ago. This is from 2017.
“General Hägglund considers NATO enlargement a mistake – “It’s like a dog being driven into a corner”
“Former Commander of the Defense Forces, General Gustav Hägglund, sees NATO’s enlargement to Eastern Europe as a mistake without which many of the current crises would have been avoided. According to Hägglund, Russia has become more and more cornered with the enlargement of NATO.
The border was met, he said, at a time when NATO was pleased to admit Ukraine and Georgia as members.
-It’s been like a dog being driven into a corner. It barks its time, then it bites. If, instead of starting to expand, we were content with a partnership, the world would be very different now. There would be no such crises. Not in the Baltic Sea or in many other places, Hägglund said at a ceremony (2017) at the launch of the book Stability at Stake on the direction of security policy.
Hägglund said that he had changed his own position on NATO’s membership from NATO to negative, partly because he noticed that the new member states of Eastern Europe had reduced their own defense capabilities after accession.
– I did not want Finland to be part of this military RIFFRAFF. :-)
In the book, Hägglund states that he fears that will to fight in NATO will collapse.
– This would be the biggest negative impact of (Finnish) NATO membership. Another big negative consequence would be our relationship with Russia.
According to Hägglund, Finland has so far had nothing in common with the new NATO members.
– Our reference group has been Sweden, Switzerland, Austria and Ireland. None of them have joined NATO. Those who have applied for membership are former communist countries.”
If thousands of American and European mercenaries are really flooding into Lviv then Russia’s plans will need to change. Though I’m sure they will be no match for Russian artillery and air power, do you really think NATO states will just stand by and let them be destroyed? The citizenry will demand intervention. The Ukraine will be split East and West in the new cold war much like Germany was in the last one.
This will suit America nicely as it will prevent Russia from using Galicia to leverage Poland and Hungary.
my friend is in poland at warsaw airport. he told me that he has never seen so many americans and canadians at this airport since he started with travelling to poland 25 years ago. he had a small talk with one canadian guy. the canadian guy came to fight against the russians. here we re.
I disagree entirely.
Russia needs to deliberately target them once they are in theatre and kill as many as possible. They have chosen to travel overseas and try and kill Russians. Whatever country they are from will disown them and I doubt very much the media will even cover their deaths.
Fully agree. No prisoners taken.
Bioweapons Labs see China totally expose the global bioweaponry in Ukraine
> The highway has been cut (now with ends)
jsut a translation fix, uit was actually said “….(now, irreversibly)” or “…(now, forever)”
Regarding the information war, here’s a Chinese reporter embedded with DPR forces:
Unfortunately i have no idea what they are saying as I speak no Chinese and very little Russian.
Okay, here it is a summary:
The local civilian: People live in the underground cellars. Both sides hit civilians, his old grad mom just died of Ukrainian bomb.
The soldiers: Beginning interview: wanted to say hello. The second interview: Саша. : They are not afraid, freshly arrived for 8 days.
One good news today from Austria is that the country has closed its airspace not only to Russia but also to NATO!!!
This news came a bit indirectly after people observed a French military convoy in Vienna; they had to say something, and then the fact about NATO.
Austria is finally behaving like a neutral country? Leiwand!!! — wenn die Nachricht wahr sei.
Your link actually states that the bit about NATO is a fake.
“NATO does not need to make a separate request to Austria because the Western alliance is not at war, he said.”
It is a bit confusing.
Das deutsche Online-Portal businessinsider.de hatte ohne Angaben von Quellen am Montag berichtet, dass Österreich nicht nur für Russland den Luftraum gesperrt haben, sondern auch für die NATO. In der Folge müssten Flüge über Italien umgeleitet werden, was ein deutlicher Umweg wäre.
Austria has imposed a no-fly zone not only for Russia but also for Nato. Consequently planes must detour over Italy, which is a major detour.
Österreich habe seinen Luftraum nur für russische Maschinen gesperrt. “Alle anderen können österreichischen Luftraum überfliegen”, sagte Bauer. Eine gesonderte Anfrage müsse die NATO nicht an Österreich richten, weil die westliche Allianz nicht im Krieg sei.
Austria has closed its air spce only for Russian planes. “All others can fly over Austria,” said Bauer. “NATO does not need to make a separate request to Austria because the Western alliance is not at war, he said.
So, which is it?
How is that confusing at all?
A German website makes something up without any evidence about something happening in Austria.
Austrian media report that the spokesman for the Austrian Ministry of Defense, Col. Michael Bauer says that it is a fake.
I believe the Austrians.
OK, I reread it. I looked up Bauer, I didn’t realize he was with the Austrian Verteidigungsministerium.
The “online portal” of BusinessInsider is German.
So if Austria is neutral, why are they closing their air space to Russian planes?
Unlimited psychos, handed unlimited high tech weapons, suitable for taking down planes, trains, and whatever. How long before this blows back on Europe?
How long before the whole continent is aflame, and the middle east, and north Africa.
Tickets to insanity!
It’s probably much least than that, Ukraine has spewed countless disinformation hoaxes since the start of the conflict. You can’t trust anything they say.
“In essence, both Washington and Moscow are playing the waiting game, although only one has the initiative. Putin is waiting to see how long the Ukrainian people and military can withstand his siege. Biden is waiting to see how long the Russian economy can survive the sanctions.
For Putin, enough military pressure must be applied to force Zelensky to capitulate. For Biden, enough economic pressure needs to be applied for Putin to backtrack and withdraw.”
Biden has imposed a historic load of sanctions against Russia but his policy options going forward are dangerously narrow
By DAVID HUTT
MARCH 8, 2022
AT is a total western schill. The current front page links, I don’t want to give them any clicks by posting them here, is pure desperate fud
MKB still contributes there (as Saker says, one has to make a living), but Pepe has stopped
I only read Goldman for his financial wit and sometimes his Spengler. The rest is no different than a western MSM
This site used to be good till it was bought a couple of years ago
“Western PSYOPs which have convinced the folks in the West of two crucial things: 1) Russia cannot win and 2) Putin is bluffing.”
and the last news: 3)Putin is dying from a cancer terminal.LOL
The adventure of Zelensky is soon ending, according to this diplomat.
Keeping up with this war is like drinking from a fire hydrant. I’m grateful to Andrei for helping us make sense of it. I’ve had little time to reflect and analyze. But here is how it looks from my armchair, in the form of some responses to Andrei’s thoughts about it.
• The Ukraine has lost the war, she will be disarmed and denazified.
The Ukraine has not lost the war until the loss is acknowledged by the regime and the collective West. True, she is 75+% disarmed. But she is nowhere near denazified. Zelensky and his supporters remain in control. They remain dominant on the informational warfare front.
Russia needs to remember 3 decades of painful lessons. The other side lies and will continue to lie to Russia, to each other, and to their own people. Russia is attempting to negotiate with liars, and that is my great concern. Nothing short of regime change will result in a reliably neutral buffer state.
My greatest concern about Russia is her willingness to settle for too little. After all the abuse she has suffered and all the progress her military has made, it is too little to settle for constitutional changes and the official recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and the DRP and LPR as independent states. Russia’s demands must intensify, and her concessions must diminish as the fighting continues. This is important not only for a lasting peace but also to compensate for the sacrifices made by the Russian people and military. Russia must turn up the pain dial continuously. The longer the other side resists, the less willing Russia must be to settle for the Ukraine to become merely a buffer state.
• I can easily imagine, say, a Polish column with weapons and mercenaries crossing into the Ukraine and being wiped out by Russian missiles. I ask you this: what will NATO do next?
What NATO will do next depends very much on what Russia does. It is vital to Russia’s interests for there to be no place in the Ukraine where the regime has rest and relief from the pressure. Even if in the long run Russia is willing to have a hostile Banderastan in the west, in the present there must be no safe haven, no pocket where the means of war can accumulate unthreatened, no place where a neonazi can prosper or even sleep peacefully.
Wherever in the Ukraine Russia tolerates militancy, Russia will get more militancy. Wherever Russia “taxes” militancy, Russia will get less militancy. How can NATO deliver any resource anywhere at Ukraine if there is no safe zone to receive such aid? The past 3 decades prove that NATO will exploit to the max anything that Russia tolerates.
Beyond a doubt Russia has military dominance. Beyond a doubt Russia has greater capacity to withstand economic assaults and greater capacity to inflict economic damage. The question in my mind is whether Russia is determined to win, and not just at the Ukraine.
The West keeps on jabbering about a no fly zone, which is a complete joke. Russia must impose a no aid zone, and that zone must be the entirety of the Ukraine. If that zone is clearly and firmly established by Russia, then we can stop wondering what NATO will do next.
• is it at all possible that this war can end without a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia, keeping in mind that NATO cannot win and NATO cannot accept defeat?
Russia already is at war with NATO. This certainly is true on the economic and informational fronts. On the kinetic front, Russia is fighting people trained by NATO, supplied by NATO and supported economically by the collective West. On the kinetic front, Russia has escalation dominance. If NATO wants a direct military confrontation, then Russia must be willing to pull the trigger literally. The more willing Russia is to do so, the less likely that Russia will need to do so. Everything that Russia does and leaves undone at the Ukraine signals to NATO and her master what Russia will tolerate.
It remains more important than ever to see the fighting at the Ukraine in the global context. In simplest terms, Russia is at war with the USA. The question is, who will dominate? Will it be the USA combined with her coercive relationships with numerous puppets? Or will Russia prevail on the basis of cooperative relationships with her sovereign friends?
For as long as the global war remains mostly economic and informational, Russia must build economic cartels with her friends to limit the West’s access to resources such as heavy crude oil. If Russia is not working closely with friendly countries like Venezuela, then Russia is in for a longer and more costly war.
On the informational front, Russia must remember that the truth is inherently stable and able to defend itself. Just as blue light is more piercing than yellow light, the truth prevails ultimately over any lie du jour. No megaphone in the West is powerful enough to turn a fact on the ground into a nonfact. A bear does not need to win a war of words.
I agree with this assessment.
It seems to me that Russia should make it aboslutely clear that no “volunteers,” be they of the neoNazi or the neoliberal or the liberal type, will have the protection of the Geneva Conventions re PoWs.
It would not surprise me at all if a lot of the Canadians etc. gathering in Poland to become “freedom fighters” in the Ukraine are (1) not well informed as to what they are defending; (2) slightly bored and looking for an adventure to regale their friends with when they get back to Toronto or wherever; (3) not hardened military with specialist training of any kind, IOW, cannon fodder. It would be better for them if they never set foot in the Ukraine, or if they understand that once in the Ukraine, basically they are kind of stateless pawns.
OTOH maybe some of these guys (any gals?) are planning to take advantage of some free military training in Poland as an entry card to the business of international mercenaries. That might be considered a good career choice in an AI or robotic world . . .
The Western Euroidiots and the Exceptionalists have made the same mistake they have made over and over for the past 3 Centuries, they underestimated Russia and the Russian Spirit, which at its core is Christian and Orthodox and they don’t understand why they can’t do it. The Religion of the West is Wokeism and the Church of Covidianity. It is the Religion of the Dark Forces of the Universe so they can’t win. The only hope of the was is that the Core of the “Spirit of ‘76” that remains is strong enough to put the United States of America back together again.
A very good article by Thierry Messan on the recent discussions/meeting between Putin and Bennett of Israel.
Bennett discovered that Zalensky lied to him about his support of the neo-nazi movement, with the consequences he is about to discover…
Zelensky knows that he will become a target.
Not buying it, sorry, with all due respect to Meyssan. Zios are evil but they’re not stupid, and their “Shocked, shocked!” act is as phony as Capt. Renault’s.
Something else is going on. We just don’t know what yet.
That much said, I’m going to venture a wild guess that the Israeli parasite is abandoning the remnants of its current host for one with a bit more meat on its bones and blood in its veins.
“All EU member States”
I believe Hungary is exempted.
The West also has Tucker Carlson and Col McGregor and they will help immensely.
Lots of comments, not too many answering your question, Andrei.
Yeah, I too appreciate your work, need I state that? One of the few openly truth speaking heroes as far as I am concerned.
As for your question, I am also afraid you are right. But my reasoning about it is slightly different.
As we see now almost everyday, the world is controlled by the banking military pharmaceutical industrial complex.
Those who read Red Symphony will l have a better understanding of this and recognize the main head of this hydra and that the role they play is not exactly a new phenomena
We are dealing with a highly effective “machine”, which most likely uses predictive AI in order to respond efficiently to changes occurring globally. On one hand people are waking up, on the other hand as soon as they are starting to clue in on one topic, another opens up. Point in case, the sacred pandemic we just experienced, and now the “war” in the Ukraine.
Being rather a pain in the behind to many of my friends by trying to wake them up, one has to be relentless in those efforts and one has to be immediate in one’s response to new “events”.
Where as many of my friends now start to recognize that the pandemic was not just a planned event, they start to agree now that there was more behind this than just a health issue.
Strangely enough, where most do NOT trust their governments, they suddenly grant them total authority because “obviously” they wouldn’t lie where health issues are concerned. Rude awakening is the obvious result to this. (Still some are lining up for their third shot.)
This same phenomena is now happening with the situation in the Ukraine. Forgotten are the video clips of azov scum physically attacking people in government. Let alone the imagery of people being burned alive in the union building.
No, Russia was always a bad apple and Putin a KGB officer. Baaaad to the core.
So again they have their common enemy.
Public opinion will now once again support the next phase of this project.
The end objective remains exactly the same! Population reduction by any means, total control over the remaining numbers and total control over all natural resources, no matter what they are or how minute in quantity.
So no matter what kind of action is needed to accomplish this, the train will continue on the same track.
And thus, I am afraid you are right and we are on the verge of a global turmoil we have never witnessed before.
We NEED to acknowledge something first of all:
We are dealing with a group of psychopaths! Their own interest is the only important thing to them. Lives of other creatures or organisms is of little interest to them. The US military follows the Tsun Zu doctrine, which, if one pays attention to it, is so far removed from ethical value, it is mind boggling. They have been and are still being used as the club which controls compromised politicians and nations. Read Confessions of an Economic Hitman for a better understanding of this (John Perkins). (While you are at it, watch or read The Creature of Jekyll Island!)
In order to stem this tide, we need to accept the fact that waving signs and shouting slogans are NOT going to be effective. We need to become like a hunted animal changing from prey to predator! Nothing else will stop this!
Love is the message, but love without decisive action will not be enough!
May God grant us peace and may I eat my words and be wrong!
Without acknowledging and examining the role of the covid scam in the big picture—acknowledging that, regardless of the seriousness of the disease for some, it still is a gigantic psy-pop—I think it is impossible to arrive at an analysis that has a solid foundation in reality.
Echoes of the crisis: How anti-Russian sanctions will hit the countries of the former USSR
March 8, 2022
Benefits – no: labor migrants began to leave Russia
In just a few days since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, the earnings of labor migrants from Central Asia have fallen by 20 percent or more. Money transfers outside Russia are a big question. Moscow taxi drivers testify that many migrant drivers no longer go to work.
March 2, 2022
Central Asia after Ukraine
The confrontation between Russia and the West over Nezalezhnaya will backfire on the states of the region…
One thing where I would absolutely love to have the Saker point of view as an experienced analyst would be : how do we objectively assess, based of what is known and relatively certain, the performance of the Russian forces ? There are various videos of stranded trucks or destroyed tanks, but I find it extremely hard to make sense of it. In any war there are inevitable losses and ugly discoveries, the question would be : what is normal attrition, what can be considered as a failure, what can be considered as a success, and what’s the big picture ?
I think the Russians are quite analytical guys who will have no problem assessing what went wrong, so I would quite appreciate a discussion by Saker on this. Maybe it will only happen once the war is over and the time of analysis has come.
You can start here, getting a general idea.
“…The Russian side feels encouraged albeit yesterday’s talks produced no tangible results. They are in no hurry to rush into major military offensives.
Indeed, the pattern throughout has been that the Russian generals would apply coercive military power to create synergy to kickstart a parallel political / diplomatic track to attain Moscow’s objective (which is not about territorial conquest.)
The western analysts who expected the Russian generals to behave like Patton or MacArthur with a massive attack on Kiev instead witnessed a confusing Russian strategy — slow, halting operations, without excessive force and with a distinct preference to avoid fighting by encircling and bypassing pockets of resistance, and avoiding set battles…”
Russia’s strategy applied to Ukraine is akin to a spring whose kinetic energy they compress and release at will, according to their needs on the field.
…and halt after cease-fire after halt after cease-fire, any time the Kiev scum pretend to want to negotiate, every time with zero preconditions. A confusing strategy indeed, though I doubt it’s endemically “Russian”.
Of course a political/diplomatic track is in fact impossible if there’s no good-faith partner willing and able to undertake good-faith negotiations. The Kiev scum of course are neither willing nor able. But I guess this piece is saying the strategy involves inventing a fictitious partner.
@ Flying Dutchman
It is called “talk-talk, fight-fight,” Russia has used it, same with China and Viet-Nam. It means having one window open to talk, no results, shoot from all other windows, until they decide to talk again. Maps show us Russia’s deliberate field progress, no reason to rush. No talking with the Nazis, though. Colonel Cassad just reported on some Russian flyers addressed to the Ukrainian army only, Nazis excluded.
Leaflet for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Mariupol
All indications are Eurostan is working on an exit ramp, the result of Russia talking to Macron, Bennett, Erdogan, and many others we don’t know about.
Check it out.
Glad to hear that low-tech communications–leaflets—are being used to communicate behind the frontlines.
Debunking Norwegian Russophobic hatemonger Stoltenberg.
NATO must ensure the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine dose not spill beyond the country’s borders, the alliance’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said during a joint press conference with Latvia’s President, Egils Levits, in Riga on Tuesday.
“The suffering we now see in Ukraine is horrific. It affects us all,” Stoltenberg stated. “And we have a responsibility to ensure the conflict does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine.”
The bloc has gathered “thousands of additional troops” on its eastern flank amid “Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine” Stoltenberg said.
So, the 100,000 troops NATO deployed at the border with Russia are there for “containment,” to avoid a “spill” of the conflict across the NATO members. Now, what form would this “spill” take? A false flag with “Russian troops” crossing the border to attack a NATO country? Artillery shot from Ukraine hitting civilian/military installations across the border, and blamed on Russia? Would the “spill” NATO is working to contain be unidirectional? How about the ratline of mercenaries (20,000 and counting?) coming into Ukraine from NATO countries? Would that count as a “spill”?
The alliance is ready to defend “every inch” of Latvia, as well as “every inch of all allied territory” he stressed, providing details on the bloc’s military buildup.
Suuuuure…as much as they defended Ukraine…
“We have 130 jets at high alert. Over 200 ships from the High North to the Mediterranean,” Stoltenberg added.
How long would they last, whether flying or grounded? The first Ukrainian fighter jet Russia shot with an S-400 missile, was hit from 150 kms away.
The fighting has already sparked “Europe’s fastest-growing refugee crisis since the Second World War”, with some 2 million people having already fled Ukraine, Stoltenberg claimed.
True, Ukrainians are leaving by the hundreds of thousands, however, many of them are taking full advantage of the war to get out of the shithole that is Ukraine. NATO/Eurostan are not doing a triage to determine if the refugees are coming from war affected areas, or they are simply piggybacking as economic refugees.
“There are very credible reports of civilians coming under fire as they try to evacuate. Targeting civilians is a war crime. And it is totally unacceptable,” he warned.
And here comes the greater lie, Russia is shooting civilians trying to evacuate. He didn’t say Russia is shooting at them, but from the context he’s speaking, building up his case against Russia, it is Russia he’s accusing of “war crimes.”
There you have rabid puppet, foaming-at-the-mouth Stoltenberg, and his litany of lies. His work in the next days would aim at saving face for US/NATO’s defeat in Ukraine. Russia called their bluffing, and made history by confronting their Straussian, Russophobic doctrines.
Bye, bye, Stoltenberg…another Eurorat the bites the dust.
Russians are insisting on humanitarian corridors. I believe they want to evacuate as many people as possible, because what comes next might be pure horror…for Ukies and their backers.
Carpet bombing, here we come. Prepare for massive loss of life on the ukrainian side.
the west has the ability to step back but its leaders do not, ultimately it is down to the crazed, humiliated Americans, can they stumble their sad, deluded, arrogant and ignorant way to peace? I am not betting on it. Maybe Russia should dial up the pain in Syria, force the US out of the oil fields, take their minds off the Ukraine theatre. It could be done cheaply and quickly in tandem with the forces who are its allies on the ground. This constant flow of negative events may shock its political classes into waking up to how impotent these bought and paid for shills in congress are?
Russia must go all out and eliminate the Ukie Khazarian Mafia and their Nazi minions, its very sovereign survival is at stake here.
Any third party foreign mercenary force entering Ukieland must be obliterated when crossing the border including its point of origination, staging areas and command center(s) regardless of its geographical location.
Russia, should cut off oil and gas supplies to any Nato country that is actively aiding and abetting Ukrainian force.
Russia is how ever losing the west msm daily war lies and propaganda.
This is great news only 59 countries are against Russia!
There is about 219 nations on earth in total giving and taking therefore 160 nations that aren’t enemies of The most powerful nation in this world our Russia!
Who gives three manures about this 59 nations full of unintelligent poppets cowards pedophiles homos perverted psychos?
Let them all solve their oil, gas and grains issue by licking the Russian boot!
Anyone knows what was the Iranian response to the begging and crying west when they went asking for petrol?
Wonder how the truck choufer maduro will respond to the west also ?
Official Chinese government now demands that U.S. answer to its biological lab activities in Ukraine and worldwide:
Maria دوبوفيكوفا Dubovikova
Representatives of the Zaporizhzhya NPP admit that Ukraine has been working on creating nuclear weapons. The staff of the Zaporizhzhya NPP was not directly involved in this work, however, the Zaporizhzhya NPP transferred some nuclear materials for scientific research related…
…to the plans to develop Ukrainian nuclear weapons. According to the Zaporizhzhya NPP staff, the @iaeaorg
inspections were aware of the transfer of nuclear materials for military purposes.
Spread this video far and wide. Ukrainian nationalist on TV calls for the extermination of millions of Donbas civilians to get rid of the “useless eaters” so that Donbas can be “exploited” economically. And people wonder why Russia invaded this hell hole?
A small sitrep from Northern Europe.
The tone in which the conflict is spoken about is changing, just like the Sake writes. Over here, a political scientist was interviewed on TV. He sounded very depressed, not at all dismissive of Russian successes. The interviewer was equally not in the best of moods, asking whether the Russians might be satisfied with Eastern Ukraine up to the Dnepr. The scientist’s answer was a “maybe”. It’s sinking in on these people what huge consequences this conclict is going to have, in particular that Russia might be going to win it.
Pro-Ukraine demonstrations are taking place and you might be forgiven to think that white nationalists were demonstrating. Non-European immigrants taking part in these demonstrations are few and far in between, and this is happening in places where there are huge Non-European immigrant communities. It shows how unpopular the Anti-Russia stance is in the global South. Once the economic s… hits the fan, they will find it difficult to keep the immigrant communities under control.
What does this really mean?
OMG – What DOES this really mean? Have we all been scammed? How is this possible other than this footage was taken before war?
That the Russians are telling the truth when they say they are doing their best to avoid (civilian) casualties and that the Ukrainians and the MSM are lying when they say the opposite.
it means that the West is ratcheting up the fake propaganda from the war when in reality there is no where near the numbers of refuges and “emergency situation” as they claim and in fact Russia is proceeding with a very limited operation that is not having as much of a ‘devastating effect’ on Ukrainian infrastructure as they claim.
They didn’t miss a beat from Covid propaganda to war:
Connecting the dots…expose the fraud from ‘Ministry of truth’s so innocent people like ordinary Ukranians, Russians, Muslims and other victims of contrived aggression by the super elite don’t continue to pay the price.
Fellas Chill !!!!
Just Chill !!!!
And Saker – what’s the deal with you ? Have you really lost sense ?
There is going to be NO – Just NONE , direct confrontation between Russian and NATO Forces.
Putin has already pre-empted that option by placing “Nuclear Gun” on the table.
That said – If you Fellas are really Serious, please follow the economic / financial fallout.
What we might actually be seeing is emergence of a parallel Financial System.
This is going to be violent Financially.
I would like to see and understand the contours of “Financial Violence” !!!!
The New York Times today gives a military analysis in an article titled, “How Russia aims to isolate Russian forces in the East.”
“…to isolate Ukranian forces in the East.” The say the Russians are trying to control the city of Dnipro to achieve that.
Poland is sending its fighter planes to Germany, and Ukies will fly them against Russia… Germand Ukie nazis vs Russia, .Great Patriotic war deja vu.
An interesting analysis on the possible trajectories that was published in the Guardian today. “ I’ve studied the possible trajectories of the Russia-Ukraine war. None are good….. There are two likely paths: continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold, or a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine”
The UK Security State establishment are wetting themselves with excitement- their unrelenting PHYSOPS have driven hungry beggars onto the streets of UK cities selling fanzine mags. for Zelensky published by homeless and antipoverty charities. The ruling class is agog with this spectacle of conditioned serfdom whereby they have turned a humanitarian reflex into a race war generating enough outrage to fuel an army of beggars and crusaders to march on Kiev and liberate it from the heinous Slavic Rus. An old cruel adage is awakened in their shrivelled souls war solves all the social and economic problems of capitalism. Therein lies the danger from a ruling class unbelieving in the power of its propaganda (social conditioning) seeing the world as its oyster (Global Britain) or rather Russia. This is a dream the UK ruling class has nurtured since the 19th century and is as fresh today as in 1853 start of the Crimean War. The UK state has spent billions on Russophobia campaigns and hybrid wars in Europe, the Middle East and Eurasia against Russia. M16 will be awash now with money to engage the enemy in Ukraine and the tin pot generals of the MOD won’t be far behind.
To answer your question about NATO’s possible move.
I think NATO would move in to the western part of Ukraine, creating an area similar to Idlib, in Syria, from which it try to undermine the future government of Ukraine.
It seems that Russia has no interest in the western part of Ukraine. Putin said that historically it belongs to Poland.
I could be wrong though!
The western politicians don’t need brains to realize war with Russia is a bad idea, they just need an ounce of self-preservation, which I think we all know they have in spades.
They won’t go to war with Russia (That’s what they’ve got Ukraine for), because that would get in the way of them living a beyond-comfortable life. And seriously, who thinks that even a single european politician would risk their wealth and social position, for the sake of some idealogical forray?
“NATO cannot win and NATO cannot accept defeat?”
The roles of NATO as food sources and human shields of “The United States of America” has been established and notions of NATO as an organisation of mutual protection has receded.
“Sadly, I don’t think so anymore, that kind of folly is a direct consequence of the Western PSYOPs which have convinced the folks in the West of two crucial things: 1) Russia cannot win and 2) Putin is bluffing.”
From inception NATO has always been based on PSYOPS particularly that first The Soviet Union and The Russian Federation cannot win, given NATO fully understood that “The Soviet Union” had no intention of going to war with NATO since it concentrated on rebuilding and developing “The Soviet Union” after the Great Patriotic War.
That the opponents were also subjected to PSYOPS that the Russian Federation cannot win and that Mr. Putin not the Security Council, or much of the population, of the Russian Federation is bluffing in some measure, aided activities which some seek to misrepresent as “unintended consequences” predicated on notions of sole/primary agency.
This also enhanced the perception that “The roles of NATO as food sources and human shields of “The United States of America” has been established and notions of NATO as an organisation of mutual protection has receded.” to those whom believe themselves to be the “cognoscenti” – not the general public, one of the main purposes of additional PSYOPS directed towards the general public is the hope of convincing them that they matter when they don’t, that being a reason why they practice “representative democracy”, whilst the cognoscenti are discussing why Ukraine must be made to become “neutral” an example being https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/551495-nationalistic-motivations-putin-donbass/ attempting to limit the reasons that the Russian Federation engaged in the activities.
Coming from France, our president Macron is sort of a globalist liberal asshole but he has more than a few brain cells (unlike the part of our population being completely brainwashed by the medias). He understood USA are playing us (wish he did faster) and wants that conflict done as soon as possible, hence his recent praise of russian people and his call to end russophobia and to reach for a durable peace in all Europe including Russia.
The Davos endorsed EU elites are licking the boots of the US though, and a lot of EU nations leaders are pretty much brain dead, so maneuvering is difficult.