On March 6, the Syrian region of Greater Idlib entered another ceasefire phase with al-Qaeda-linked groups breathing a sigh of relief thanks to Turkish sacrifices in the battle against the Syrian Army. However, the pause in the Turkish-Syrian military confrontation just reduced the tensions rather than put an end to them.
A few minutes after the start of the ceasefire agreed by Turkish and Russian presidents in Moscow, an intense fighting erupted between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and pro-government forces. ‘Democratic al-Qaeda rebels’ attacked positions of regime troops near Fleifel, Sufuhon and Fatterah. Meanwhile, Turkish-backed groups carried out an attack on Russia’s Hmeimim airbase with unmanned aerial vehicles.
In the following days, Idlib militant groups regularly shelled army positions near Saraqib and Kafr Nabul simultaneously complaining about ceasefire violations by the Syrian military. The most active yammerer was the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), an al-Qaeda-affiliated group mostly consisting of Chinese Uyghurs. Its stronghold, Jisr al-Shughur, is located within the agreed buffer zone along the M4 highway. The situation is especially ironic because the terrorist organization is excluded from the ceasefire. The group’s leadership fully understands that the creation of the buffer zone is not possible as long as it presents there. So, it reasonably expects a Syrian Army operation there.
The TIP’s more courageous counterparts from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham announced that they reject the Moscow agreement. The main reason is that it excludes the al-Qaeda-linked terrorist groups like the TIP and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Additionally, the former offshoot of al-Qaeda in Syria officially thanked Turkey for the assistance in the battle against the Damascus government. The Syrian Army responded to a series of failed militant attacks with a limited offensive in southern Idlib. On March 7, it liberated the villages of Marat Makhus and Burayj.
On March 8, Turkish President Recep Erdogan, to whom Hayat Tahrir al-Sham officially sent its thanks, once again threatened to take a military action in Idlib if the ceasefire deal is not adhered to.
“If the promises made regarding Operation Spring Shield are not kept, we reserve the right to clean up [the area] using our own methods,” the Turkish president said. “We signed this agreement to provide a solution to the crisis in Idlib without further bloodshed. Otherwise, we will continue to walk our own path.”
The statement came as the Turkish Armed Forces continued their military buildup in Greater Idlib sending more and more troops and equipment to Syria. Recently Erdogan forces established several new posts north of the M4 highway, as always just near positions occupied by al-Qaeda terrorists.
The Turkish leader too quickly forgot that his forces recently failed to turn into reality the previous batch of threats against Syria and promises regarding a swift and easy victory in Idlib. Instead, they suffered notable casualties, failed to achieve any of declared goals and got a painful reminder that the real war is not a piece of cake.
The newly-appointed commander of Iran’s Qods Force, Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, recently visited the province of Aleppo. He was photographed alongside with several other persons, apparently Qods Force officers working on the ground in Syria. The visit of Brig. Gen. Ghaani to Aleppo is a signal that Iran is not going to abandon its Syrian allies and will support Damascus in the event of a new round of escalation in the region.
Well that’s it then. Erdo’s really gone and done it now. The man knows no bounds and will pay the price very soon IMO. I think Pres Putin probably already knew what was going to happen and I suspect things will now escalate very quickly. Good luck to the patriots of Syria and their allies in getting the Turks and all other invaders out of their lands.
The key to Turkish intent is when the M4 corridor is to be cleared for joint patrol. When that fails to happen, the Russians will lock the air above Idlib and annihilate the headchoppers and the Turks with them.
If you see what Putin is doing to the Hegemon’s oil dominance and petrodollar, as well as the effect on the stock market, the military reaction will be unmerciful.
Erdogan is pulling on that rope around his neck. What a moron.
Putin has declared war on the terrorists in Syria and their Saudi sponsors simultaneously.
Re oil price, Saudi Arabia has a fiscal breakeven point of 80 – 90 USD /barrel. They have low extraction cost but they need oil between 80 -90 usd pb to keep their bloated bureaucracy afloat and pay off everybody in the kingdom to keep the peace. The Saudi monarchy cannot survive ultra low oil prices like the ones we have now for very long…
Btw, Russia has a much lower fiscal breakeven price, they have a free floating currency acting as a cushion for their commodity sector, don’t need to defend a peg, have tonnes of gold (going up in price) and virtually no debt. It’s almost as if Russia has been preparing for this price war…(maybe those who previously criticised Putin’s stewardship of the economy might want to think about that)
“Re oil price, Saudi Arabia has a fiscal breakeven point of 80 – 90 USD /barrel.”
Curious where this comes from since oil has been way, way below that level for many years now.
In production terms, the break-even point is very much lower. But in terms of paying everyone in SA to keep the peace, they need a much higher price per barrel.
Sort have found the answer here:
Oil price war will expedite the end of petrodollar & rise of Chinese-Russian currency– RT’s Max Keiser
“Whatever the reasons behind the oil market meltdown, Russia is in a better position to handle it. As opposed to the US shale oil, Russia’s is much cheaper to extract, and it doesn’t have a massive debt to deal with, unlike Saudi Arabia.”
Just do an internet search on “fiscal break even saudi arabia” and a bunch of links will come up
Yes exactly, Russian’s & Chinese don’t have the debt that’s found in USA & Saudi.
To answer the question here about $90/barrel oil, and why it doesn’t matter, because the USD is a infinite ponzi fiat of trust, so long as the trust game ( Really its Fear of the armed USA) is in effect, then USA can print to infinity, and pass on as needed to prop up the Saudi Gov.
Remember like Catherine Fitt’s has proved the $20T USD budget that’s public is only 1/2 the real burn of USD, the US-MIL also print another +$20T, and that is used to prop up their criminal gangs, like Saudi. Of course all this is only good as long as the USD is the king, once complete confidence is lost in USA, then the USD is worthless, which means that both Saudi& USA starve over-night, as nobody will send food for worthless toilet-paper/fiat USD.
IMHO there isn’t going to be a SHTF the ‘black swan’ its going to be just a gradual “OIL 4 GOLD” transition, and if Gold goes to $10k like we’re heading with COV-19, then you know the USD is dead, because that’s how you will see it, you will not see the end of the USD, it will just take a wheel barrow of them to buy anything of worth.
Which of course in Summary, is why the USS-Eisenhower and all Carrier’s US & such are in the MED, to protect their oil in Libya, Iraq, and Syria; The free stolen oil is what will keep the US-MIL alive long after the USA is dead. If the USA fails to secure the Oil, then the US-MIL will be left stranded all over the world, as nobody is going to pay to bring them home, as the FIAT will be worthless. So they MUST steal the oil, there is no other closure
Production cost of much of Saudi oil is below $10 per barrel. It was $2.54 when I worked for Aramco in the finance department 40 years ago. The newer fields are much more expensive.
But Saudi Arabia is a strange beast where almost everyone seems to be employed by the government – except for the Indians and Pakistanis of course.
Since I was kicked out of that country for inviting a TWA stewardess to my room at the Marriott hotel, their population has increased enormously. And their standard of living has dropped.
It will be fun to watch Saudi Arabia collapse like Libya. All the mosques in Europe will go bust. Their mercenaries will be begging on the street.
From the Moderator:
Please, both of you, get back on topic and take off-topic matters to the MFC. ThanQ.
The problem is not the cost of extraction of oil, that would be true if the cost of extraction was less that the wholesale price a business would be fine. The problem we’re trying to discuss here is that for every barrel the Saudi’s sell they spend $90, its not that oil doesn’t pay for itself to be extracted, its that the Saudi’s have created not unlike the USA a vast corporate welfare state, where trillions of US dollars are required to pay millions of people to not work, and to import foreigners to all the ‘dirty work’
The USA basically gave the ‘House of Saud” the franchise of running the oil concession, back post WW2 the Bush family was involved in this gift, which is why Bush hosted Saudi’s during the WTC-911 rescue operation.
Today Saudi is even more useful to USA, not only for managing was once the worlds largest known reserve, but also propping up the bankrupt US Dollar, post Nixon going off the Gold-Standard. Besides all the terrorist op’s that keep the MENA states in a state of war, is also financed by Saudi’s by way of free-fiat from CIA (US-MIL) +$20T
From a USA point of view so long as everybody buy’s Oil in USD, then all is good, this is why Saddam was killed and Gaddaffi, because they said they were going sell their oil in Gold and/or Euro’s.
The Saud’s are happy to sell their Oil to USA, because the USA has no choice but to keep this GOV alive, else the USA loses its currency-reserve status, so even if OIL went below $5 USD, USA would still have to support the Saudi welfare state. This is possible because the USA can print Fiat (USD) to infinity for free.
I too once upon a time worked for Big-Oil.
short answer: Saudi Arabia is a bloated bureaucracy and economy w/too many citizens and royals who got too comfortably relying on the Indian subcontinent for labor.
the $80 – $90 is not unreasonable—but probably is modestly lower now as MbS started cutting subsidies for Saudis and raised taxes.
Lots of think tanks have explored the issue. I’m too tired to search for it. shouldn’t be hard to find….
Either MbS acted impulsively—-or (by a very small chance) is playing 4-d chess and sending conflicting signals to manipulate the oil market.
one a side note—read up on Saudi Vision 2030. MbS’s plan to reform the economy—-pretty much dead in its tracks though, lol
Thanks for your insightful comment. Could you please provide any info concerning the ongoing crackdown in Sordid Barbaria? I mean, it’s a big deal that MbS has locked up his nephew and uncle, with reports of even more underlings being rounded up…. So far it’s crickets on MSM, and that’s a tell-tale sign that something big is in the offing.
No idea, I wonder if MBS is even sane? Maybe the oil markets are making him crazy?
It’s not like before. The Saudis always liked volatility in the oil price. When the price went up, they cashed-in. Then they would bring the price down, (with OPEC help), and bankrupt all the other oil producers. And then up again. Like this they always kept their market share (and their cash).
With appearance of shale they lost market share, esp. in the US (although at these prices, shale will be going bankrupt too). With this no-deal from Russia, they have basically lost control over the price.
Now, I’m reading that they are furiously pumping out more oil to bring down the price further. They ‘re trying to claw back market share, at whatever cost. They think they can outlast their competitors. We shall see…
Saudi Arabia needs $55 crude to fund its government expenditure, because it has nothing else to sell. Russia on the other hand can live with $35 crude, since their internal currency the ruble has been devalued by US sanctions. This means that when Russia sells its oil in US dollars, it is receiving more rubles to spend within Russia.
The deal that the US has with Saudi Arabia is that they will sell their crude oil in US dollars, and that they will invest their excess dollars in the US stock market and military hardware. If the Saudis have fewer excess dollars, then they will have less to invest in US stocks, or even have to start selling them to meet their other obligations.
Reminds me of a popular watering hole laugh about scam artists trying to pry loose investment dollars from some rich rubes with no understanding of what they were about to get into:
“Don’t worry, we are selling at a loss but we will make it up on volume.”
Well, it is early in the day waiting…waiting….
In order to maintain current US dollar levels of income by Saudi Arabia, they will indeed need to sell more crude oil, but this will drive the price even lower than it is today.
Yes, MBS is selling at a loss. The idea is to inflict pain on himself and everyone else, hoping the others will feel it more, and go bust before him. It’s a very risky strategy. US Shale industry, which is over-leveraged, will be struggling to survive these prices…
Reply to : Larchmonter445 on March 09, 2020 · at 3:34 pm EST/EDT
Off topic – but only slightly : A subject of strategic interest which could and, I believe, should, be fully displayed as a proper article alongside the other articles and interviews reproduced by this website.
As the US, UK and Israeli-backed neo-colonialist war against Yemen enters its fifth year, in this interview the Yemeni Ambassador in Damascus, Naif Ahmed Al Qanes evokes his nation state’s international allies Syria, Iran, Hashd Al Shaabi in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, says Russia has a pivotal role inside Syria but has played no role in supporting Yemen, claims Israel has been present since the first day of the aggression against Yemen and actually lost a number of its pilots when targeting the Yemeni airbase in Asir, and, highlighting the words of Chinese State Councillor, Wang Yi, in a statement made on the 23rd November 2019 during the G20 meeting in Japan, suggests they are indicative of the new Chinese political orientation. Thus he declares that we, in Yemen, are facing such an American distortion project since the beginning of the war of aggression against my country. That is why China will now deal with us from the perspective that ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’.
Exclusive : Vanessa Beeley Interviews Yemeni Ambassador in Damascus by Vanessa Beeley Friday,
6th March 2020 https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/exclusive-vanessa-beeley-interviews-yemeni-ambassador-damascus.
Should you choose not to publish Vanessa Beeley’s scoop adequately I enclose full text below minus photos :
The US, UK-backed neo-colonialist war against Yemen enters its fifth year. The Saudi alliance of aggression has pulverised entire swathes of Yemeni territory, decimated infrastructure, bombed hospitals into oblivion – all with armaments and weapons systems supplied by the UK/US military industrial complex.
Despite the illegitimacy of this aggression, NATO member states and UN agencies have done little more than to offer lip-service to the inevitable dire “humanitarian” consequences of such a punitive war that collectively targets the Yemeni people and popular resistance movement, standing firm against decades of corrupt and resource-plundering Saudi/US/UK coalition occupation.
The West’s hypocrisy when shedding crocodile tears over the externally imposed humanitarian disaster in Yemen
In January of this year, as an example, UN Relief Chief, Mark Lowcock, thanked “top donors” to the “Yemen humanitarian response plan”. Without a trace of irony, Lowcock named the top four aggressors who have ensured Yemen is bombed back to the dark ages – UAE (United Arab Emirates), Saudi Arabia, US and UK.
The spokesperson for the Yemeni Health Ministry, Dr Yusef Al-Hadhree, explained in greater detail the hypocrisy of this statement from the UN Relief Chief:
The funds that the UN allocates to Yemen are provided by these four countries but we must understand some very basic elements.
First, Yemen’s resources – oil, gas and sea ports (except Hodeida) are controlled by these four countries. Therefore they are, effectively, able to fund their interventions in Yemen with our resources. At the same time, salaries for employees in Yemen have been cut since 2016 until today. The “humanitarian” funding from these countries has actually been stolen from the Yemeni people.
Second, the funds provided to the UN agencies are conditional. The UN is under obligation to conceal the crimes of the funding countries, committed in Yemen, which include the impact of the humanitarian blockade on the Yemeni people. The UN must provide political and media support for these countries through their international resolutions. The UN ensures these funds go to projects which do not directly benefit the Yemeni people, so the reality is – we see the deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Yemen year after year, despite these funds.
Third, the UN sought to transfer the Yemeni Central Bank from the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, to Aden, which is under the control of these four nations. The decision to do so was made in 2016. From that day until today, 80% of Yemeni people live without an annual government budget of $ 15 billion. While draining essential capital from our country, the UN boasts it is “helping” Yemen with $ 2 billion.
Fourth, 25-60% of these funds disappear as an “operating budget” for the UN-sponsored organisations and agencies and their leaders in Yemen and abroad. Yemen receives only the crumbs from their table. For example, the health sector plan in Yemen for 2019 was duly submitted to the UN. To date, only 19% has been implemented. There is a deficit of 81%. So why should we, the Yemeni people, listen to the UN bragging about the blood money of hostile states?
Fifth, the UN effectively has a duty to whitewash the image of these countries globally, portraying them as “humanitarians” despite their brutality and aggression towards the Yemeni people which is ongoing. These countries have committed heinous crimes in Yemen.
These countries besiege and starve the Yemeni people leaving us with thousands dead, many others suffering with curable diseases exacerbated by the blockade. We have countless civilians with chronic illnesses that we cannot treat, including cancer. Millions are suffering with psychological trauma. More than 20 million Yemenis are impoverished by the policies of these countries, 80% of the population.
Frankly, how does the UN dare talk about the “humanity” of these criminal countries?
Sixth, let us presume these countries provide $ 2bn dollars in “humanitarian aid” to Yemen. Saudi Arabia and UAE have spent more than $ 200bn to purchase American and British bombs and weapon systems to murder the Yemeni people. The same countries have squandered an estimated $ 2000 bn on the war against Yemen and the siege of the Yemeni people. Where is their “humanity” Lowcock?
Finally, the Yemeni people do not want this money or so-called “aid” from these criminal states. They want these countries to leave them in peace. Yemen possesses wealth and resources that will enable them to survive without such fraudulent “aid” which serves only to mislead public opinion in the West and to persuade the international community of the legitimacy of this genocidal aggression against Yemen.
Indeed, the UN ostensibly decries the starvation of children and widespread disease that thrives in the quagmire of Yemen’s war. However, the UN is complicit in the collective punishment of the Yemeni people in its continued adherence to Resolution 2216 which is based entirely upon the legitimacy of fugitive President Mansour Hadi who not only resigned in early 2015 but eventually fled to Riyadh where he called upon the Saudi regime to bomb the Yemeni people into submission. The UN effectively maintains the sadistic “humanitarian” blockade and sanctions on the Yemeni people.
This hybrid war against Yemen is one of the worst crimes against humanity of our lifetime.
The hidden role of Israel in the Saudi-led war of aggression against Yemen
Recently, I had the privilege to meet with and interview the Yemeni Ambassador in Damascus, Naif Ahmed Al Qanes. I had the opportunity to ask a few questions that are rarely discussed in a compromised Western media cartel that, like the UN, effectively conceals the ugly underbelly of the UK/US proxy neo-colonialist project in Yemen.
Vanessa Beeley meets with Yemeni Ambassador to Damascus, Naif Ahmed Al Qanes. (Image: Vanessa Beeley)
My first question addressed the involvement of Israel in the war against Yemen. The Ambassador replied in depth:
Israel has been present since the first day of the aggression against Yemen. Israeli pilots participated directly in targeting Yemeni air-defences to disable them and prevent their use in resisting this aggression.
Israel’s involvement has been ongoing. Their military experts and pilots are an integral part of the UK/US-backed Saudi coalition. Israel actually lost a number of their pilots in the targeting of our airbase in Asir.
The focus of the Israeli decision makers, research centers and Zionist intelligence agencies is related to the southern section of the Red Sea, the Bab-el-Mandeb straits. After some degree of normalisation with the Gulf States, Israel maintains a historic enmity with Iran. Israel perceives the Ansarullah popular resistance movement to be a proxy of Iran and their control of the Bab El Mandeb straits is tantamount to a stranglehold over the Zionist regime.
Israel already feels threatened by the envisaged Iranian expansionism in Iraq and Syria, the northern crescent, and is determined to prevent the perceived completion of the sphere of influence in the south, through Ansarullah.
Iran has control of the Hormuz Strait. If Iran gains control of the Bab el Mandeb straits then Iran would be the dominant regional force. An unacceptable situation according to the results of Zionist strategic studies and analysis. Such ‘think tanks’ are the guiding bodies for Israeli policy and decision makers and form the basis of Zionist regional ideology and strategy.
Israel will protect the Gulf States, in particular Saudi Arabia, to avoid Iranian supremacy. For this reason, Israel is participating in the genocidal war against Yemen.
The role of China in Yemen – has there been a change in policy?
My second question to the Ambassador was concerning recent discussions between the Yemeni Health Ministry and China which perhaps demonstrates a change in regional policy from China. China had previously been supplying drones to the Saudi alliance. The Ambassador replied:
Before we discuss China’s discussions with the Minister of Health, there are some very important variables to point out.
The change in Chinese policy is caused by the conditions forced upon them by American foreign policy.
Researchers and analysts of international relations are trying to come up with a specific theory to describe Trump’s foreign policy. Trump has gone beyond realism, liberalism and internationalism. He has bypassed all international theorism so these analysts are scrambling to define Trump’s ideology and policy decisions.
Trump’s aggressive economic strategy towards China has forced her to revise her global policy to protect herself.
The Chinese State Councillor, Wang Yi, made a statement on the 23rd November 2019 during the G20 meeting in Japan. He informed the Dutch Foreign Minister that ‘The United States is broadly engaged in unilateralism and protectionism, and is damaging multilateralism and the multilateral trading system. It has already become the world’s biggest destabilizing factor.’
Wang Yi also claimed that the US has deliberately suppressed legitimate Chinese businesses and has laid groundless charges against them which is an act of intimidation and state-bullying. America is in the process of distorting China’s image worldwide.
I consider that these words from Wang Yi are indicative of the new Chinese political orientation.
We, in Yemen, are facing such an American distortion project since the beginning of the war of aggression against my country. That is why China will now deal with us from the perspective that ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’.
There is another factor also. The US is currently weaponizing the Uighur extremists, present here in Syria and in China, against the Chinese government. The so-called ‘human rights’ of the Uighurs in China is being deployed to criminalise the Chinese government while the reality is that China is battling extremism fomented by the US, just as Syria has been fighting it for nine years.
America traditionally uses the Muslim Brotherhood as a destabilisation tool and in this case, the MB is being used to fuel such anti-China discourse internationally.
As an aside, I have noticed many reports that the US may be behind the spread of the Coronavirus. This is not as far-fetched as it may first appear. Saudi Arabia has been responsible for the various epidemics that have affected millions of Yemenis – the result of manufactured viruses.
Yemen’s allies in the axis of Resistance.
Yemeni Ambassador to Damascus, Naif Ahmed Al Qanes. (Image: Vanessa Beeley)
I asked the Ambassador which countries he considered to be allies of Yemen in their battle against the neo-colonialist projects led by the US, UK, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel. The Ambassador responded:
Yemen is fighting a war against a Gulf State coalition led by the US, UK, Israel and the EU. The same coalition that has been waging a war of aggression against Syria since 2011. These two criminal war projects are supported internationally despite the reality that they are nothing more than neo-colonialist campaigns aligned with international terrorist groups to achieve their destabilisation aims.
There has been a fundamental change in American policy. Previously the US would fight on behalf of her tools, now she deploys her tools to fight on behalf of the US and takes money in exchange for their engagement in wars orchestrated by the US.
Within this equation, we consider that the Axis of Resistance is our strategic ally. Even if not present with us on the battle frontlines, it is fighting the same enemy on other fronts as in Syria, for example.
Syria has confronted an international ‘world war’ on its territory. Hashd Al Shaabi in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the genuine Palestinian resistance facing international Zionist terrorism and Iran is, for us, the leader of this axis. These are our strategic allies in the region and they provide logistic, moral and media support for the Yemeni resistance movement.
Our international allies are those who also challenge the imperialist projects in their countries – Venezuela, DPRK and all truly ‘free’ countries around the world. I believe the more countries that align to defeat imperialism, the weaker this project becomes.
Russia has a pivotal role inside Syria but has played no role in supporting Yemen. Of course, we hope that Russia will eventually balance their role throughout the region and will restore the much-needed equilibrium to all Arab nations and act as a necessary counter to the US-led supremacy and hegemony in our region.
The role of the UN in maintaining the “humanitarian” blockade.
Mona Relief 1/4/2016: Bani Quis, Hajjah, Northern Yemen on border with Saudi Arabia.
My final question to the Ambassador brings us full circle to the start of this article – the UN involvement in the collective punishment of the Yemeni people, a role they also played previously in Iraq. The Ambassador expanded on the response from the Health Ministry spokesperson:
If we wish to understand the role of the UN in this war, we have to refer to the resolutions on Yemen. Resolutions based on the conditions of the aggression, not on the reality of the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Yemen.
Resolution 2216 has effectively legitimized every punitive measure against the Yemeni people since the beginning of the war in March 2015 – the land, sea and air blockade.
All UN resolutions have had a negative impact on Yemen. We saw nothing but hollow rhetoric from the UN, meaningless appeals to ‘lift the blockade’ or to open the airport in Sanaa. Thousands of people would have been able to go abroad for medical treatment, thousands of lives would have been saved, thousands died because of this criminal closure of a lifeline airport.
Yemeni ports are subject to aggressive measures by the Saudi coalition, food and medicines cannot enter Yemen without permission from the aggressor countries, not from the UN. (My note: the UN actually ensures further delays through its ‘Verification and Inspection’ mechanism).
Humanitarian aid destined for the Yemeni people does not reach its intended destination without being pillaged and decimated by UN employees and donor organisations who benefit from an estimated 80% of this ‘aid’. Of the remaining 20%, much of the food arrives rotting and inedible, not even suitable for animal consumption. This is the role of the UN in Yemen.
From our perspective, the best of former UN envoys was Jamal Benomar and the worst was Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmad.
Jamal Benomar was adamant, in 2015, that Yemenis were reaching political resolution and that the Saudi aggression was designed to disrupt Yemeni self-determination.
I was, personally, a member of the political negotiating team. The dialogue took place in the Movenpick Hotel under the supervision of Benomar. One day before the unexpected Saudi aggression, we had agreed on forming a political representative committee, the Presidential committee, which consisted of five members representing the four major political factions – Al Mushtarak (Joint Meeting Party JMP), Al-Mo’tamar (The General People’s Congress Party GPC), Ansarullah and the Southern Movement. The President would be nominated by the four parties. We had agreed on the mechanism and it was presumed that names would be immediately submitted.
This was the day before the Saudi campaign of aggression was launched on the 25th March 2015.
The agreement stipulated that these names should be provided on the 25th March. Ansarullah, GPC, the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party and the Federation of the Yemeni Popular Forces nominated and agreed upon the former Yemeni President – Ali Nasir Mohammad. The Muslim Brotherhood factions and Nasserists objected, so we postponed the selection process pending the nomination of their preferred candidate. After each party candidate nomination, we decreed that if a decision could not be agreed upon, we would leave the choice to the UN to decide between the two candidates. It must be noted that the majority, in addition to a percentage of the Socialist Party and the Southern Movement, had agreed with our selection, Ali Nasir Mohammad.
The appointment was scheduled for the next day at 12pm. The dawn of the same day, the Saudi coalition began bombing Yemen. Jamal Benomar included these events in his UN briefing but was ignored and the five year campaign to obliterate Yemeni infrastructure, history, culture and heritage began, the five year bloodshed of the Yemeni people began and has continued, unimpeded by the UN, to this day.
What will be the outcome of the US-led war against Yemen and the region?
To conclude our meeting I asked the Ambassador what he believed would be the outcome of these wars being waged in the region, against progressive, socialist leaning, resource-rich nations, by the neo-colonialist alliance dominated by the US and Israel.
It is clear that Saudi Arabia and the UAE want to exit from this war that is a drain on resources but they are not the decision maker – Washington and Tel-Aviv determine the prolongation of this war and will maintain the aggression until their desired agenda is met.
The US assassination of Qasem Soleimani also catalysed change in the region, this criminal act destabilised US supremacy in this region.
Today, we are witnessing the Iraqi people making their own decisions and challenging the US occupation, demanding that the US get out of Iraq. After the US is forced to depart, the balance of power will shift and the US presence in the region will be severely reduced.
All these factors might bring the war in Yemen to an end. I am optimistic that it will end in 2020. The US and Saudi Arabia have attempted to escalate the aggression to get the upper hand in negotiations but the reality is that Yemen has turned the tables on them militarily and their position is weaker than before.
I hope, for the sake of the Yemeni people, that your analysis is proven correct. Yemen deserves peace and stability and to lift from its neck the yoke of US-sponsored Saudi oppression and corruption.
Reply to : the master on March 10, 2020 · at 4:26 am EST/EDT
The Master ? As in ‘Master Race’ ? But then, I suppose, if the cap fits, wear it. Try this for size :
US Special Forces Deployed with Al Qaeda in Idlib in False Flag Attack on Turkish Forces (updated) By Gordon Duff with Nahed al Husaini
March 8, 2020 https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/03/08/us-special-forces-deployed-with-al-qaeda-in-idlib-in-false-flag-attack-on-turkish-forces/.
Russian MOD : White Helmets attempt Chemical Attack while US delegation brought in as patsies-to be murdered ? Several White Helmet members died while handling a Sarin gas container given them by Turkish intelligence to use in planned false flag in Idlib … Russian MOD By Sputnik News – Russia – March 4, 2020
VT is a known psy-op. I agree, a link and summary would have sufficed.
Reply to : Lonesome Cowboy Burt on March 10, 2020 · t 9:58 am EST/EDT and to Moderator concerning this link :
«VT is a known psy-op. I agree, a link and summary would have sufficed».
My personal diagnosis is this: VT is not a psyop, but they sure are click-baiters and can be trusted about as “much” as DEBKA. YMMV but I ask you NOT to post any links towards the VT website. The only exception to this rule would be article from Kevin Barret for whom I have a lot of respect and personal sympathy.
Readers of this one-liner will be losing the thread, as Lonesome Cowboy Burt is now made to appear to be responding to a post which no longer exists and which, written by a mysterious contributor calling itself «the master» and contemptuous of my initial article, has been suppressed by the Moderator. Thereby putting both of my efforts in an even worse light. Possibly VT is a psy-ops. Presumably Sputnik isn’t. Moreover the suggestion by VT of Washington prepared to sacrifice its delegates as patsies, for the White Helmets to play with, subsists unchallenged. As for the interview of Yemeni Ambassador to Damascus Naif Ahmed Al Qanes by Vanessa Beeley, this remains as an obscure entry lost in the backwaters of this website. Relatively isolated, Yemen has been sufficiently humilated and deserves better. As does Turkey. But for totally different reasons.
Getting even with Erdogan by, as it were, insulting him in public with a statue of Catherine the Great is one thing. Gratuitously, depriving a large Turkish delegation of chairs and slighting the Turkish president with an ostentious two minute delay is another. It is childish and out of character with the otherwise skilled diplomacy of the Russian head of state. Either way this is how this event has been spun in France and elsewhere.
[Vidéo] Comment Poutine a humilié Erdogan en le faisant poireauter Par valeursactuelles.com/ Mardi 10 mars 2020 à 12:18
Putin already has the rep as judo master and chess master. I think we can add master puppeteer to the list.
Erdogan is useful. He does what he is told to do for a few days, then he reverts or worse, he does what the other side tells him to do. Putin tells him to enforce patrols, Russia and Turkey patrol the M4, and voila! The road is opened and another cauldron is formed.
Hegemon tells him to attack the evil Assad regime and voila! More head-choppers (the moderate and compassionate ones) get bombed into their afterlife.
The problem of how to embarrass Hegemon and to get rid of the moderate murderers gets solved bit by bit. Confusion, indecision and infighting at Langley prevent anyone from deciding it is time to draw a line in the sand. “No, wait a little bit, we’ll get Erdogan to do something we need.” All the while the proverbial frog fails to notice that the water is getting warmer.
I wonder if Hegemon and Rogue State have yet figured out that the game is one of creeping encroachment* much like their game to usurp Palestine. “Naw, Putin can’t be that smart, and of course, President Assad (M.D.) can’t be either.”
*It is creeping encroachment of Syrian forces upon their own lands held by the enemy.
Erdogan seems like a credible Nobel ”peace” prize laureate in the making. Will he live to receive the award? Putin and Assad are out, in case you didn’t know.
No chance, N., the zionazi-gays hate him. So do their nonzionazi capitalist gofers.
Obama received the crackerjack peace prize just for being elected.
Think Putin cares about such a virtue signaling award?
If Putin is awarded the Peace Prize, then you should start being suspicious of Putin.
‘Democratic al-Qaeda rebels’ attacked positions of regime troops near Fleifel, Sufuhon and Fatterah.’
Government troops would be the correct term I think.
Article from Cassad (in Russian) about the active partcipation of Hezbollla “storm troopers” against Turkey and its terrorists in Idleb.
This has to make heads to explode among the likes of pompass, hook, and jeffrey (and erdo).
“Good on you hezbollla! ”
They have the appearance of being some pretty tough dudes.
I don’t think the Turks will break the ceasefire, honestly. They just lost over 100 soldiers killed and several hundred more wounded, for nothing other than to protect Al-Qaeda, and they didn’t even manage that, since the terms of the agreement are, more or less, a huge political humiliation for Erdogan and give even more land to the Syrian Army (the M4). Now the jihadists, on the other hand, will certainly break the ceasefire. But I doubt they will be getting widespread Turkish drone air & artillery support again should they go on some unsanctioned attack against the SAA. Which means they will be crushed without any support.
Even Erdogan has to understand he (Removed language,MOD) up at this point. If not, then the Russians can always drop another bunker buster on one of their battalions. But truthfully, I don’t think even Erdogan is that(Removed language,MOD) stupid to pull this(Removed language,MOD)again. He has been thoroughly humiliated, militarily and politically, and next time Putin won’t save him… it will mean the end of his career if he (Removed language,MOD)this up again. He already got a *LOT* of internal flack for his blatant aggression against Syria. If another 100+ Turkish soldiers die for nothing, it’s over for him. (Good post,but find words to use that don’t violate the blog rules next time,MOD)
Either way, this pause in fighting is good for the Syrian army. They suffered a lot of casualties and their men have been fighting for a long time without a break. It’s well deserved for them, and the agreement is in their favor. The M5 and M4 are de-facto liberated, and all the jihadists have left at this point are Idlib city itself and the surrounding countryside… but that’s it.
I think the Turks are toast.
Erdo got a few red lines recently, and is no position anymore to wheel and deal his way out of it. West and East are done, Europe is done with his immigrant blackmail, illegal drilling around Cyprus and Lybian meddling.
The only party not at the table in Moscow was Al Quada. They will do whatever Langley tells them to do. Whatever the Turks will do, they’ll lose.
(It is a mystery to me, as a sidebar, what is meant by ‘moderate rebels’. Do they slit your throat moderately, halfway asking ‘are you comfortable, sir?’. I don’t know).
Let’s not be too enthouastic about Erdo gone. Who’s going to replace him? After the scenes of that massive brawl in the Turkish parliament I don’t have too much high hopes. That was kindergarten style.
”It is a mystery to me, as a sidebar, what is meant by ‘moderate rebels’. Do they slit your throat moderately, halfway asking ’are you comfortable, sir?’. I don’t know.”
Haha, that’s what Putin also asked, adding with his usual sarcasm: ’They behead gently?’. As I understand the concept, it supposedly means something like Rabid animals that won’t hurt the US and Israel.
”Let’s not be too enthusiastic about Erdo gone. Who’s going to replace him? After the scenes of that massive brawl in the Turkish parliament I don’t have too much high hopes.”
Very similar to a Ukronazi parliamentary ”performance”. Give the Turks a taste of their own medicine. Partition Turkey with the aid of the Kurds.
Good summary of the bloodbath yesterday, the consequences, the carnage in the crude markets: (prognosis in short: It ain’t over):
President Donald Trump is bringing a pea shooter to a gunfight. If you look carefully at the charts on this page from yesterday’s trading bloodbath, it’s clear that there is a deep financial crisis playing out. The idea that this can be remedied with a payroll tax cut is the stuff of tooth fairies.
And this crisis didn’t begin with the coronavirus. Headlines about the virus did not start appearing in the U.S. until January of this year. But the Federal Reserve began making hundreds of billions of dollars each week in cheap loans to Wall Street’s banks on September 17, 2019 — the first time it had done this since the 2008 financial crisis. You can earmark September 17, 2019 as the actual date that this Financial Crisis II got underway.
All of the toothless financial reforms of the Dodd-Frank legislation of 2010, together with the rollback of reforms since then, are now coming home to roost — as it was inevitable that they would.
interesting is, when your earmark is September 17. 2019, then it was the day in the year
when Venus (estate and balance) visited the toppler Uranus of the carrier-element earth.
Venus-Uranus a code for toppling the balance of wealth?
A short glimpse on Sept. 17. 2019 and on Oct. 24. 1929 in my Archive:
A must read that leaves crucial questions open, sure way to anger trolls for the Al Qaeda/NATO Sultan, as well as blind propagandists for Moscow’s euroatlantist/zionist appeasement policy (A policy that will be disastrous, mid to long term, on the eastern and southern front) :
The battle for Idlib: did Erdogan capitulate to Putin in Moscow? Mint Press – https://www.mintpressnews.com/265621-2/265621/
« Is this the quid that Erdogan got in exchange for the quo with Putin? The terms of the agreement call for a Turkish withdrawal to the north of the M4 highway but assure a separation with Syrian forces to the south to be enforced by joint Russian-Turkish patrols in a 12-kilometer wide demilitarized zone (DMZ) along the M4. Is this not in effect a gift of a portion of Idlib province to Turkey – a quasi-permanent Turkish occupation zone inside of Syria? Is Turkey saying that if Israel is allowed to occupy the Golan Heights and the U.S. the eastern Syrian oil fields, why shouldn’t Turkey be allowed its piece of the colonialist pie? Of course, we cannot know for certain that such a gift was part of the Moscow understanding. At most, it’s implied by the separation protocol along the M4. But Erdogan is not known for quietly making deals that are to his disadvantage.
Some will point out that the agreement reinforces the wording of the Astana accord, respecting Syrian sovereignty in all Syrian territory. Unfortunately, this provision lacks implementation other than by the Syrian army, and the Russian-Turkish patrols specified in the Moscow agreement would seem to assure that the Syrian army will be kept at bay. Erdogan can afford to be generous with wording that has no backing.
A further consideration is that the Moscow negotiation was conducted between Russia and Turkey only, not Syria, with the exception of updates via telephone. Of course, Syria is a valued ally of Russia, which prefers to respect Syrian interests. But Russia also has interests, which are not necessarily the same as Syria’s. Russia supports Syria but tries to keep good relations with Turkey. Unfortunately, the Idlib conflict has come close to forcing Russia to make a choice between the two, with several close confrontations between Turkish and Russian forces. »
Moscow’s soft atlantists (led by Putin) playing with Syria’s soveignty, like a skilled bazaari, trying to appease the Zionist entity and Ankara’s Ikhwan in chief, risks losing on all fronts. And every eyes are on Moscow’s art of the deal with its Syria’s vulnerable ally. Including eyes bordering its volatile Caucasus, and NATO occupied eastern front…
Every time Syria makes an advance the trolls scream “humanitarian crisis.” Every time Syria halts to solidify its gains the trolls scream “Putin sellout!”
This has been going on for five years. Every time Shoigu shows a map of Syria, it shows all of Syria, and that includes the Golan.
We are in a resting phase. Soon, the cauldrons south of the M4 will be cleared and then advances will be made, I’m guessing so as to encircle Idlib City, and then the trolls will scream “humanitarian crisis!” It is all so tiresome.
Eu não entendo esta trégua em Idlíb, o Exército Árabe Sírio ia muito bem, mas enfim eu não sou estratega, agora o sr. Erdogan anda titubeando entre a Rússia, EUA e a UE, e ao mesmo tempo provocando as três potências com palavras e actos, não lhe auguro muito tempo de vida. Não se pode agradar a todos, ele vai ser obrigado a definir-se e mais depressa do ele pensa. Quem tudo quer, tudo perde!!!
I do not understand this truce in Idlíb, the Syrian Arab Army was doing very well, but anyway I am not a strategist, now Mr. Erdogan is wobbly between Russia, the USA and the EU, and at the same time provoking the three powers with words and deeds, I do not bode well for his life. You can’t please everyone, he’ll be forced to define himself and faster than he thinks. Who wants everything, everything loses !!!
A few strategic assassinations in Idlibistan, both among top headchoppers and Ottoman occupation war criminals, should send the appropriate message.
One big problem is that Putin is insistent on keeping the Ottomans at least moderately happy. There was no justification at all for not compelling a total Ottoman surrender at Moscow including complete withdrawal of all occupation war criminals. What would Erdogan have done, risked another economic blockade and shut down of the tourist flow?
From all I’ve seen via a diversity of resources
The Ceasefire is holding. And has been for what nearly a week now?
And everyone wants to make it permanent.
Russia and Turkey are still working positively towards this goal.
“Now we work on to make this cease-fire permanent,” Çavuşoğlu said.
“Erdogan, in an interview while returning from the Belgian capital Brussels, said that the ceasefire was, “going well, even if it is temporary. I hope that this will continue and it will turn into a permanent ceasefire.”
Meetings (via phone) yesterday by all reports are positive
SAA and allies are clearing the M-4 to make way for the joint patrols.
” According to many pundits, the beginning of the patrols may ensure the security of the region better than the current situations
Turkey’s military will patrol to the north of a security corridor being set up around a highway in Idlib, and Russian forces will patrol the southern side, Çavuşoğlu said on the issue. “
There are plans for a refugee pass through- which will undoubtedly see many of the thugs head back to Europe.
Yet, Southfront is presenting the usual dogmatic ideology
a fixed, belief or set of beliefs that people are expected to accept without any doubts
Which has me perplexed because there is an abundance of information to the contrary. Personally, I’m pleased the ceasefire is working thus far, can’t speak of what may occur in the future, but so far so good. A more controlled means of resolving Idlib really is the better way to go
SF “Recently Erdogan forces established several new posts north of the M4 highway”
Yes, that’s because their prepping for agreed to patrols with Russia as has been widely reported- everywhere!
Also, what is being ignored completely, is the reports today that the US has a “new” mission in Syria. Helping the SDF continue to steal Syrian oil. As they’ve done for years and years now. With the US standing right by their side.
New Mission? US troops aim to keep oil. New mission?
That most certainly is not the new mission. It’s been the mission all along.
Hopefully SouthFront will report on that?
A related article:
A few of us have been writing on that topic for a very, very long time.
Greater Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0
As for Davatoglu and his alleged no trouble with neighbours policy- Mr D, being the real power in Turkey at the time of that policy- under the old form of governance- created a ruse. IMO. He was also the real power when the Russian plane was shot down (under the old form of governance)
I see him as the glue between Turkey’s and NATO’s deep state (He’s started a new party in Turkey to challenge his old party aka divide the vote)
Most people are unaware of the common market aka free trade deal that had been negotiated between Turkey and Syria. It came into play years prior to the Usrael destabilization.. and was very beneficial to the two nations.
“In 2019, the Turkish General Staff became convinced that the Pentagon, having temporarily renounced destroying Syria because of the Russian presence, was now preparing to destroy the Turkish state”
Way off in date for realization. There is evidence Turkey was aware well, well, well before 2019 of US plans. Leadership their made statements to this affect going back further then that.
In fact in Meyssan’s article he contradicts his own statments
“In 2017, regional president Massoud Barzani organised a referendum for independence in Iraqi Kurdistan. Immediately, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran understood that the Pentagon, returning to its original plan, was preparing to create a “free Kurdistan”
Well Mr Meyssan, is it 2017 or 2019? It seems you can’t make up your own mind?
My contention still it was way before 2017 as well. Perhaps Thierry can settle on a date, eventually?