by Auslander for The Saker Blog
International press has pretty much ignored the ongoing civil war between 404 and Novorossiya for the last year. However, for those in Novorossiya, be they far from the lines or near the lines, the war has not stopped and will not stop for another year at least. The casualties on both sides are daily, what was so euphemistically called ‘daily wastage’ in the ‘great war’ that ended 100 years ago yesterday, said anniversary celebrated by both the ‘winners’ and the ‘vanquished’ of that war which saw the end of the world as it was known at the time.
Yesterday was also Election Day in Novorossiya, both republiks, Donetsk Peoples Republik and Lughansk Peoples Republik, elected new administrators. It matters not who was elected nor does it matter what the citizens of both republiks thought of the candidates, what does matter is the election occurred and, while overshadowed by the gathering of heads of state in Paris, some ‘west’ media did notice as did OSCE.
OSCE was particularly vocal in their screams that the election violated Minsk Agreement. This is the same OSCE that can not see a single orc piece of equipment, you know, those tiny tanks, heavy artillery, BMP’s and BTR’s, within the exclusion zone of the Minsk Agreement, nor can this sainted ‘organization’ ascertain where a particular tank shot came from that killed the elderly lady in a DNR village not far from Donetsk City on Saturday morning, 10 November 2018. They also could not ascertain where the rounds came from that killed one DNR soldier and wounded two others on 11 November 2018, during the election.
This is the same OSCE that can not see the fact that 404 has yet to fulfill a single article of Minsk 2 agreement which 404 could not wait to sign after Mutti Merkel and whoever were ‘presidents’ of France and UK at the time ran screaming to Moskau after the Debaltsyevo Cauldron battles ended in complete victory for DNR and a crushing defeat for 404 from which it has yet to and will never recover from. Of course, a good part of the reason for this scramble to Moskau was really to arrange for, behind the scenes and with no publicity, the release of various captured foreign soldiers, said soldiers, while not many of them, being from UK, France, Poland, Germany and US.
The clown show rushing to Moskau learned nothing and to this day, soldiers from those countries and other ‘eu’ countries are still assisting 404 in not only training but active participation in hostilities on the 404 side of the lines of combat. Some have been killed, some wounded, and some captured by the Armed Forces of Novorossiya. Most of those captured are released back to the 404 lines after a friendly chat with AFN intelligence officers and treatment for whatever injuries they may have gotten during the rough pounce of capture.
The elections in both republiks were rousing successes. It is estimated that in excess of 80% of the electorate participated, and there were numerous foreign observers at the polling locations including our sweet little friends from OSCE, not that what they say matters at all. Some useless fop from DoS, Volker, is complaining as usual but he doesn’t matter in the least. The citizens of Novorossiya have voted and by voting showed their preference as to how and where to live.
The actual voting was done as by law in both republiks, picture ID must be presented, this ID being your internal passport, and your name located and checked off on the voter rosters of each precinct. As with the elections in Sevastopol Region and Krimea in 2014, many of the voters did not bother to go in the voting booths, they simply checked off their choices on the paper ballots, walked to the clear plastic and sealed ballot boxes and dropped their ballot in the box, many not even bothering to fold them to ‘hide’ what they chose.
There is one report that as an incentive to get out the vote, all voters received a card with 100 rubles of time on their cell phones in each republik, the republiks having separate companies running the cell and ‘net systems for each. As an added ‘incentive’, two days before the election the bridge overpass in Yenakiyevo was opened, this bridge being destroyed during the fighting in 2014 and falling on two ork tanks. Not BMP’s or BTR’S, but tanks, at least one of which was a T72. This is an important event in that this road opens up heavy vehicular traffic on a significant highway between the two republiks which crossed over the railroad main line.
In regards to the daily SitRep, the ‘low key’ war grinds on. The orcs shoot daily and have systematically destroyed almost all the villages on the Novorossiya side of the lines, literally shooting up the houses one house at a time on one street over a two or three week time, then starting on the next street. Even tiny hamlets with no strategic value of any kind have suffered this treatment.
Casualties on both sides of the line are daily, although almost no civilians on the orc side are injured because AFN refuses to shoot at the orcs when they are sitting in or near residences or infrastructure. Needless to say, the orcs now plant themselves among the civilians and shoot all day and all night. OSCE of course sees nothing. There is even a photo and video of two OSCE vehicles sitting next to orc tanks in Zalizne just west of the lines at Gorlovka, the OSCE operatives studiously ignoring the tanks as they speak to media.
The ork army is exhausted. The steady attrition of their units and equipment has not ceased, and combine that with the rotation out of conscript soldiers, the drinking and drug use rampant in some units, and the soldiers themselves being pushed in to small local attacks which they always lose and lose men in, and desertion has become for the last three years a serious problem. Recruitment and conscription has also taken a serious hit, no one wants to be sent to the meat grinder of the front and it is estimated that in excess of 80% of young men who get the ‘greetings, please report’ notification either bribe their way out or run for the borders.
The population decrease in orcland continues unabated. It is estimated that the true population of orcland in 2013 was 42 millions. The loss of Krimea and Sevastopol cost them well over 2 millions, some say more than 2.5 millions, and the war with Novorossiya cost them an additional 2.8 millions in Donetsk Oblast and 1.5 millions Lughansk Oblast. It is estimated that over 5 millions of orc citizens are living and working in Russia, half a million in Byelorus, and another 4 millions in eu. Judging that half the 5 millions and 4 millions left before the 2013 census, that still leaves slightly over 11 millions of citizens who are no longer in orcland, reducing the populace to an estimated 31 millions. Since most who left for Russia, Byelorus and eu were younger men and women who were at the prime of their work lives, that’s a significant, read catastrophic, lost of productive citizens.
Industry has taken a serious blow from which it will never recover. Donbas, half of which is now Novorossiya, was the heavy and medium industrial powerhouse of 404 and the vast majority of that heavy and medium industry was concentrated in and around Donetsk City and Lughansk City. It’s gone forever. Mariupol has some industry but that has atrophied significantly since 2015. Antonov, the huge aircraft company that for decades was a leader in aircraft design and production, is gone, as in forever. Many of the talented designers and engineers are in Russia, working for Russian aircraft companies. Heavy engine production has ceased, as has aircraft power system production.
The killing hit will be in late summer of 2019 when Nord Stream 2 starts moving product. This will destroy what is left of the orc economy and cut off a not small income for various oligarchs who steal POL from Russian transport to eu. Russia has more than once estimated that 10 to 15% of product moved through the aging pipelines in 404 is ‘lost’, the orcs swearing the loss is ‘technical’ gas and oil used to run the pumps for transit. This straight faced untruth is the butt of many jokes in Russia, let alone eu.
In summation, while many have predicted that 404 will be gone starting in 2015, this has not happened. IMF, and eu and SehSha, have poured billions in to 404 in four years, most of which the populace is saddled with repaying and this is impossible for the populace to do. It remains to be seen what summer 2019 brings, but the only way 404 can survive as a semi recognizable ghost of what it was 5 years ago will be for IMF and eu to continue to pour money in to 404. This will not happen. Russia will in no way, shape or form ‘take over’ 404 for the good of Russia and the world, to do so would saddle Russia with the unimaginable debt 404 has managed to accrue and not even the foolhardy ‘atlanticists’ will advocate such a move if they plan on not having a neck stretching party at the nearest street lamp.
Bottom line, 404, aka in the past as Ukraine, is dead, it’s just a matter of time before the tottering corpse falls face first in to the mud. This fall may be next year, or the next next year, or a few years down the road, but sooner or later, and I bet sooner, the corpse will fall with a whimper heard only in IMF HQ and Foggy Bottom money printing rooms.
Sevastopol, The Third Defense.https://www.amazon. Book 1, A Premonition, The Move South. Set against a backdrop of real events and real places, the reader is left to filter fact from fiction.
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon. March 2014. NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.