Yes, the Russians have received a written reply from the US and NATO.

However, the actual documents have not been leaked yet (but, of course, they will).

Lavrov has said that there are some substantive aspects, but key Russian demands have not been met.  He reminded that all OSCE member states, including the USA, that they all have signed the Istanbul Declaration of 1999 and and the Astana Declaration of 2010.  Both these documents refer to the indivisible nature of security and make the promise to abide by this principle.  Thus, while these documents do uphold the right of every country to choose whatever alliances it wants to join, it prohibits the member states to do so at the cost of the security of any other signatory.

Now Russia will send a letter to each OSCE member state asking them why they are reneging on their written pledge.

So what do we know?

It certainly clear that after one and a half month of “consultations” the War Party prevailed.  Hardly a big surprise.

Russia is obviously not satisfied with the replies she got.  Russian officials have already admitted this.

Russian armed forces are also engaged in truly large military exercises involving the entire Russian Navy (4 fleets), forces and command structures from Russia’s eastern regions.  Russia is also deploying Airborne Forces, EW units, S-400 air defense missiles to Belarus.  Finally, Putin has ordered a test drill of Russian strategic deterrence forces.  All in all, the forces Russia is placing on high alert are now becoming quite significant and will impact much more than just the Donbass.

Other than that, this is way too early to reach any conclusions.  As the French say, “you have to give time to time”, meaning that while there is a natural desire to finally get the final results and to make big statements about what just happened or will happen next, the truth is that now is NOT the time to come to such conclusions (at least if you care about the real world more than about your impatience).

The western media has literally conditioned its audience in Zone A to quasi instant “analyses” or “breaking news” and other buzzwords which they quickly spew irresponsibly but, considering the attention span and intellectual passivity of its audience, they get away with without any consequences.

I suggest that we not “play CNN” here and take the time needed to get the “real factual facts” and not rush into any premature conclusions.

I suggest that we wait a day or two before we reach any conclusions.


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