Foreign Minister Lavrov’s press conference shows that Russian government at all levels rejects US attempts to re-write terms of Minsk II Agreement for Ukrainian conflict settlement
by Alexander Mercouris for Russia Insider
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow has recently provided a masterly discussion of Lavrov’s recent January press conference.
Lavrov’s press conference touched on one of the strangest and most mysterious diplomatic meetings to have happened so far this year.
This was the meeting that took place in Kaliningrad on 15th January 2016 between US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and Russian Presidential aide Vladislav Surkov.
Victoria Nuland needs no introduction to regular Russia Insider readers or to followers of the Ukrainian conflict.
A holdover from the Bush-Cheney administration, she is the wife of the neocon ideologue and commentator Robert Kagan, and is known to be a hardline neocon herself. Her position as Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs makes her in effect Washington’s proconsul in Europe.
Nuland played a key role during the Maidan crisis. Famously she let herself be pictured handing out cookies to the anti-government protesters, and was overheard discussing on the telephone with US ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt the make-up of a future Ukrainian government (the so-called “Nuland call”). Her choice as Prime Minister of Ukraine was Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who not coincidentally is Ukraine’s Prime Minister now.
Vladislav Surkov is a much stranger and more interesting person. He is the Dr. Frankenstein of Russian politics.
As Putin’s spin doctor he set himself the extraordinary task of trying to achieve total control of the entire Russian political system, reshaping it to fit his own ideas. He tried to do this by creating puppet parties and social movements to the left and right of the ruling party United Russia. That way he sought to create a political system whose every part was loyal to the Kremlin and was controlled by him.
As more realistic people warned him, what actually happened was that like Dr. Frankenstein he found he could not control his own creations. Instead of taking over the political space to the left and right of United Russia, in order to gain traction with the Russian public they criticised United Russia, and ended up competing with it for votes.
The result was that they ended up taking votes from United Russia, leading to the political setback United Russia suffered in the parliamentary elections of 2011, which triggered the protests that took place that year.
Surkov’s machinations have also had the damaging consequence of sowing cynicism amongst Russians about the state of their politics, with many Russians doubting that their political parties are what they seem.
If Russian politics still have about them a quality of fragility which makes many Russians nervous despite the high degree of national consensus that now exists in Russia, it is in large part Surkov’s doing.
One other consequence of Surkov’s manipulations is that despite being by all accounts a charming man, he is personally reviled and distrusted across the whole Russian political scene.
He has become the one person people in Russia of all political persuasions – pro-Western liberals, Communists, conservatives and right wing nationalists – unite in detesting. The only person in Russian politics who appears to trust Surkov is Putin himself.
Like Nuland Surkov has had an important role in the Ukrainian conflict. He has been the liaison person between Putin and the militia leaders in eastern Ukraine.
Not surprisingly when such a controversial figure is given such a role, this has led to all kinds of stories about what Surkov has been up to .
There is for example a widely believed story that back in July 2014 he hatched a plot with the Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov to surrender Donetsk to the Ukrainians. He has constantly been rumoured to be behind various plots to betray Novorossia and the militia ever since.
In my opinion these rumours greatly exaggerate Surkov’s role, but given his background they are inevitable, and make Putin’s choice of Surkov as the person to carry out such a sensitive liaison role a very strange one to say the least.
When two such widely disliked and mistrusted individuals as Nuland and Surkov meet, it is bound to cause alarm. When they meet in private the alarm is bound to be even greater. Ever since news of the meeting became public the alarm bells have been ringing loudly across Russia, the Donbass and Ukraine.
So what did the two discuss when they met?
The official line from the Russians is that the meeting was a “brainstorming” session aimed at finding ways round the obstacles holding up implementation of the Minsk II Agreement.
That scarcely makes sense. How can a solution to a conflict like the one in Ukraine be found through “brainstorming”?
There have also been some very strange stories about Nuland’s behaviour at the meeting.
Supposedly she turned up to the meeting in a state of great agitation, warning a presumably baffled Surkov – with the FSB listening in – that “war is coming”, calling Putin “a f…..g tsar”, and talking luridly of plots in the US to do away with her and with the President.
The reality is that Nuland has been in regular contact with the Russian government about the Ukrainian conflict for some time.
She has been meeting regularly Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karazin – a tough and very experienced career diplomat – for several months to discuss Ukraine and how Minsk II might be implemented.
This latest meeting was however not with Karasin but with Surkov – a Presidential aide not a Russian Foreign Ministry official – and it took place on Russian territory, in a Russian government residence Russian intelligence will have fully wired up, enabling the Russians not just to listen in but also to record everything Nuland would have said during the meeting.
Surkov is banned from entering the EU and the US. If Nuland wanted to meet him she would have had no option but to meet him in Russia. It is likely Kaliningrad was chosen as a sort of token half-way point between Russia and the West: politically it is unequivocally a part of Russia, but its pre-1945 history was as part of Germany and therefore of the West.
The fact however remains that Nuland travelled to Russia to meet Surkov – a person who is persona non grata in the US – and met him on Russian territory in a Russian government residence.
That strongly suggests it was the US – and probably Nuland herself – who initially asked for the meeting, and that the Russians agreed.
It is difficult to avoid the impression that Nuland and her chiefs in the State Department pressed for the meeting because they felt Nuland’s meetings with Karazin, and Kerry’s meetings with Lavrov, were going nowhere, and that she and they were not succeeding in getting their message – whatever it is – through to the Russian leadership (first and foremost to Putin himself) through the normal diplomatic channels.
In other words the meeting was an attempt by the US to by-pass the diplomats in the Russian Foreign Ministry so as to get through to Putin himself.
There are in fact rumours Nuland actually wanted to meet Putin and that the Russians said no, offering a meeting with Surkov instead.
What the message was that the US wanted to get through to Putin – and which Nuland passed on to Surkov during the meeting – we now know from what Lavrov said at his press conference.
I give here Dr. Doctorow’s translation of Lavrov’s words:
“Now everyone, including our American colleagues is telling us: ‘Just fulfill the Minsk accords on Ukraine and immediately everything will return to normal. We will immediately cancel the sanctions and tempting prospects of cooperation will open up between Russia and the United States over much more pleasant issues, not just in the management of crises; right away a constructive partnership program will take shape.
We are open for cooperation with everyone on an equal, mutually advantageous basis.
We of course do not want anyone to build their policy based on the assumption that Russia and not Ukraine must fulfill the Minsk accords. It is written there who must fulfill them.
I hope that this is well known to the USA. At least, my latest contacts with US Secretary of State John Kerry, the contacts of Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland with Assistant to the Russian President Surkov indicate that the USA can sort out the essence of the Minsk accords. Grosso modo, everyone understands everything…”
(all underlining added)
In other words the US is offering to lift the sanctions if the Russians agree to rewrite Minsk II, and then do certain things that accord with the way in which Minsk II is rewritten.
We know from things Poroshenko has said, and from Putin’s recent answers to Bild-Zeitung, how the US and the Ukrainians want Minsk II rewritten, and what it is they want the Russians to do.
Minsk II says Russia will return control of the border once Ukraine has amended its constitution and granted the two People’s Republics broad autonomy and Special Status.
The US and the Ukrainians want to reverse this order. They want the Russians to return to Kiev control of the border, with Ukraine only having to amend its constitution afterwards.
It goes without saying that if the order of events set out in Minsk II really were reversed in this way the changes to the Ukrainian constitution envisaged by Minsk II would never happen. Having regained control of the border the Ukrainians would simply renege on their agreement to change their constitution, in the meantime dealing with the people of the two People’s Republics in their own way.
Lavrov’s press conference shows the Russians have said no.
Lavrov says he rejected the proposal when it was put to him by Kerry.
What then happened was that Nuland – for whom Ukraine is very much a personal project – tried to get past Lavrov and Karasin so as to put the US proposal directly to Putin. However instead of meeting Putin she met Surkov, who on Putin’s behalf said no.
Two events in January might have made Nuland and the US think Putin might be brought round.
The first was the EU’s renewal of sanctions “until the Minsk Agreement is fully implemented” (for my discussion of the absurdity of this formula see here).
The second was the fall in oil prices and the attendant stories of a supposed crisis in the Russian economy and budget.
In the event what Nuland heard from Surkov was the same that she had previously heard from Karasin, and which is also what Lavrov says he told Kerry.
It is also what Putin told Bild-Zeitung he said to Merkel and Hollande during last autumn’s Normandy Four meeting in Paris.
This is that the Russians will not agree to any rewriting of Minsk II, and insist that it be carried out – by the Ukrainians not by them – to the letter.
The fact the Russians describe the meeting between Nuland and Surkov as “brainstorming”, and the stories of Nuland’s strange behaviour at the meeting, suggest that what followed after Surkov said this to Nuland was a row, and one which moreover went on for four hours.
That would explain the reports of swearing, whilst the alleged warnings of coming war and of plots to do away with the President look like garbled versions of warnings – or perhaps of threats – that the Russians had better be more accommodating because the time-window to do a deal is running out, with the US likely to have a more confrontational President (Hillary Clinton?) after the Presidential election.
If this interpretation is correct – and it is the only one fully consistent with all the known facts – then it confirms a number of things.
The first – the obvious one – is that the US – or at least a hardline faction in the US – is unhappy with Minsk II and wants to change it.
The second is that the Russians are not going to agree, and are not going to be bribed by offers to lift the sanctions – or be intimated by threats – into changing their position.
That the Russians will not be pressured over Ukraine is something the Europeans have repeatedly found out to their cost.
They discovered it during their meetings with Putin during the the summit meetings in Milan and Brisbane in 2014, and they discovered it again during Merkel’s and Hollande’s meetings with Putin in February last year in Moscow and Minsk. They also discovered it during the latest Normandy Four summit in Paris.
Now – after the Europeans have failed – it is the US’s turn. First Kerry tried with Lavrov, and Nuland tried with Karasin. Nuland then tried again with Putin and Surkov, and got the same answer.
This has in fact been the consistent pattern throughout the Ukrainian crisis. The Western powers have consistently over-estimated their ability to influence Moscow through sanctions and pressure. When they discover this doesn’t work, they come away angry and baffled.
The Russians have been driving this point home in what are now starting to look increasingly like coordinated statements.
There has been a succession of public statements from top Russian officials over the last few weeks saying that it is Kiev not Moscow that must implement Minsk II, and that Russia refuses to talk about the sanctions with anyone, and will not be pressured by sanctions into doing what it believes is wrong.
Putin, Lavrov, Ivanov and Patrushev have all recently said this, and Lavrov has now told us that Surkov said this to Nuland in private as well.
Here is what I said about this in my discussion of a recent interview which Sergei Ivanov, Putin’s Chief of Staff and Russia’s No. 2 recently gave, in which he specifically talked about Russia’s refusal to talk to the West about sanctions:
“Ivanov says Russia refuses to discuss the sanctions with the US or with the Europeans and opposes any attempt to bring up the subject of the sanctions in any meeting called to discuss Ukraine.
According to Ivanov, it is for those who imposed the sanctions to admit their error by lifting them.
If true – and there is no reason to doubt what Ivanov says on this subject – then this Russian approach to the question of the sanctions must be a cause of great frustration and bewilderment to Western governments.”
Reports from Kiev say Boris Gryzlov, Russia’s new representative on the Contact Group (whose appointment I discussed here) brought the same message with him during his first visit to Kiev following his appointment.
The fact the US is looking for ways to re-write Minsk II to suit its Ukrainian proteges will surprise no-one.
The important thing is that the Russians are having none of it, and that the US push to rewrite Minsk II is coming up against a solid wall of Russian opposition.
Russia, please keeping building your counter forces and add Israel and Saudi to the target list.
If suddenly “Israel” was no more, which percentage of the problems in the world would instantly vanish? IMHO, >99.9%. Let’s vote. What would you say?
If england is taken out of its ability to do mischief the world problems will be solved by 99.999%
surely that should be priority for the world community especially the victims of english parasites like russia, gfermany, europe ,asia, middle east, south america and originals of australia.
Not all of England, just the City and Westminster would do.
Thanks for a great analysis. What I don’t understand is why is Nuland needed to get a message to Putin? It seems to me inappropriate to ask a head of state to meet with an official who is not even a foreign minister. If the US wanted to get a message directly to Putin, why can’t Obama make a phone call? At the very least, why can’t Kerry himself ask for a meeting? That should be the very lowest official who could meet him and Putin might agree to that.
Because the US government isn’t actually “centralized” in all its dealings. Nuland is herself a centre of “executive” action. And she wants to cut a deal, and prove to her base at home that there is a deal to cut.
These bitches are drunk on power. Everyone in the US or EU is scared of them. One call and you lose your job. And you know these people like to make your life hell if you even look at them the wrong way. In fact, if they are bored they might kick you just for fun. If you seen jabba the hut and what happens to his pets or prey or food is the perfect way to describe these cretins.. In fact Hillary looks a lot like jabba as well.
And the emperor lets jabba’s do their thing.. He sure would be scared of having a meeting with them as well…. And I doubt the emperor has any say or knowledge in most of the things that’s going on. The guys far too busy working on his handicap.
Best description of the “deep state” of US. Jabba playing its game in the name of desinteressed riches no matter who rules the official goverment.
Looks like they are now sending the old boys/politicos to Moscow to see Putin::
Nuland had zero effect.
@Lysander on February 04, 2016 · at 3:03 pm UTC
Because Obama is NOT making the decisions what US is going to do and this meeting was just a preparation for another meeting just to know what kind of techniques are going to use
My bet is that Nulands shitck was, administrations come and go; our people remain.
Well, my guess is that Obama has no human brain and no attention span. Could not hold up his end of a decent conversation…
These madmen and psychopaths will stop at nothing. I have grown truly concerned that if Hillary’s insane self is elected the chance of war with Russia will go up like 50%. We must find a way to collectively prevent this very dark scenario from playing out – at all costs.
If there was a US war with Russia, like Putin said: we could destroy the US in less than 30 minutes.
But at least they would nuke Wash DC and end the people’s misery under the corporatocracy. I live in the US. We can’t change our leadership; the ESF and the rest of the alphabet agencies, the corrupted Congress and Senate will have to be starved out by losing all the cash that supported them. Myself, I’d happily have a depression here if the cash loss ended the reign of terrorists. Bring it on, thanks.
Just like there is no Ukrainian nation state anymore (therefore I refer since a few months to the territory as ´The Ukraine´, just as it used to be called), there is no US anymore: not a fracture between states like in the civil war, but deeper, inside. A bit like the EU, where everyone and everything is slowly turning into each others enemy. It seems to me that several fractions have gone rogue.
Which would make rational analysis much more difficult…
Poroshenko won’t pass the required amendment, because if he does, the Nazis on the Eastern Front will come back to Kiev and hang him. But Europe wants to trade with Russia again, which it can’t do without Minsk 2, or backing down on that requirement.
Backing down is tough because there’s a war party that wants a war. It’s encouraging Turkey’s bellicose statements, and NATO’s quadrupling of weapons in the Baltics.
They’ve painted themselves into a corner, and want Russia to help them get out of it. But if you put enough pressure on things, something will eventually break… often peace itself, because defending peace does not result in profits. Perhaps that is the basis of Nuland’s fear.
What porosh**ko could do, is pass a secret message to the Donbass, that he will withdraw his forces (at least temporarily), look the other way, and then the Donbass military could SMASH the volunteer battalions, solving one of its problems, and also one of the president’s.
40 000 new soldiers will have to be found next month to replace those who have seved their year in the Ukrainian military, and they are not likely to get them, or at least not of the same quality, so before then would be a good time to do something.
I certainly agree with you there. We are coming down to the “no way out ” phase. WWI was the last war that was preventable by the actual rulers of a nation. In those days the Kings or Emperors could have just said “no”. And the political consequences,while bad for them,would not have been fatal. But in the “modern” World. That isn’t possible. The states unloose propaganda on their enemies,without mercy. They portray the leaders of the other-side as an “anti-Christ”,a “monster”. So once they are through with that, their people won’t understand how you can could to an agreement that doesn’t have the “anti-Chist,monster” backing down,or being totally defeated. To do otherwise risks you losing power. And in the system today,that is worse than anything for a politician. That in my opinion,is why the US is “freaking” out.And is outraged that Russia refuses to do what they say. They see the only “out” for them is to back down themselves (a political kiss of death) or to actually go to war over it (a very possible real “kiss of death” for them).
These Are the World’s Most Miserable Economies
Of 20 countries on top as most miserable countries eight of them are members of NATO…
What is Russia doing in Afghanistan? Not quite sure, they are very low key.. Russia is making India pay for military weapons and India transfers them to the Afghan government.. ???? This is like the US arming IS in Syria.. Not a lot of weapons but anything like this is only done for close allies and important of Russia. The articles don’t shed much light on the policy… on why or what..
The Most Important Arms Deal You’ve Never Heard Of
A third likely reason India pulled off the helicopter transfer is Russia’s evolving policy in Afghanistan. Russia is not merely the source country for the helicopters; it is a nation that has enjoyed a long and relatively warm friendship with India that harkens back to the Cold War era.
In recent weeks, Moscow has signaled a desire to step up its role in Afghanistan (however, as far back as April 2014, it inked a deal with New Delhi to provide Indian-funded small arms to Afghanistan).
This all gives India ample incentive to draw on Russian-manufactured products, such as attack helicopters, that can be conveyed to Afghanistan.
Well that was a really long read.. The short version is the US is a bully.. The EU is just the pissboy and no one takes their bullying seriously and usually they drop the bucket in a huff and then have piss all over their shoes. The US will then bring in the serious fire power.. Threats and a lot of yelling and screaming etc etc etc the test tubes and baking powder and balloons etc .. And if you are small enough you have to take a few punches and maybe some amputations without anesthesia.. But if you are anywhere even half their size and can kick them in the balls, they immediately back down in a huff and puff and scream about jesus not loving them anymore and what an ass you really are for not backing down.. And in fact throughout history the only thing that has worked for the US is asylum with of course the mansion in Washington or Florida.. Because everyone knows, once you accept a US bribe, the lamp post will have your have your name and someone sooner or later will come out with the rope. And just by looking at the number of foreigners living in mansions you can make a list of US cronies..
I think I just defined the US foreign policy of the last 70 or so years…
It’s ramping up. The British Bloviator Corp., guided by MI6 et al, pants desperately: ‘Let’s Play WWIII with Russia the Aggressive’. How exciting to be able to play jingoism war games and destroy the planet! Join in all those who hate Russia -and especially Putin:
Could you stop World War Three?
Comes complete with warmed up additional propaganda from almost a year ago -“a tense and difficult business”:
Life in Crimea: One year on from Russia’s takeover
“At any moment, as the gangs of activists who had flooded across the border swaggered through the city streets, violence seemed on the point of breaking out”
This pathetic tabloid senationalism is enough to make you sick but Nuland loves it.
Don’t you just love the propaganda graphic at top, snarling bearded chrome-dome Rooskie dead centre (is that badge actually Ukrainian?), poor unarmed police being battled by masked ‘gangs of activists’ complete with their Russian flag, tank with gun pointing menacingly and cold heartless tank commander, soldiers with guns, dystopian smoke and destruction backdrop and the ever present SU-24 with massive bombs/missiles (I think those are actually external fuel tanks). At least they got the flag the right way up.
The war room looks like it has a coffin in the middle of the table -how appropriate.
Did I miss anything?
I believe that in the past I read that the Russian response to a military attack on its territory would include the use of tactical nuclear weapons on NATO and American military installations in the countries surrounding Russia.
Unfortunately, my searching for an article outlining this doctrine has been unsuccessful — can anyone help me with a link?
I believe you are referring to Russia’s military doctrine after Putin first came to power…Russia had the right to use nuclear weapons against external and internal enemies.
Hahaha … “brainstorming” … fine sense of humour there!
Of course the American-Central bankers representatives do not know what to say or do as the only understanding they have of dialogue is bribery, coercion and threats, usually against much weaker entities, friend or foe. When coming up against an equal they do not know how to act talk or respond. But make no mistake the American-Central bankers know how to turn the economic screws to cause economic pain and are not remotely mature enough to pass on actions such as shooting or otherwise bringing down military or civilian aircraft, murdering those aboard in a petulant fit of one-up-manship as to who can do what to whom.
How unreal this article is, because it doesn’t mention biden at all, why not??? kerry is a nobody, irrelevant. the satanic witch nuland is there as Biden’s representative, she has more power than kerry does on Ukraine. When last did biden – at least – visit Putin about Ukraine? To send anybody else is an insult. Haven’t you seen photos of biden and porosh**ko together??? I think obummer has also washed his hands of Ukraine, given it over to biden.
So, there is no change from the USG about Ukraine, it will lie, make false promises, simply can’t be trusted at all.
The best bet for the Donbass would be to have a vote on joining Russia in March – I would have suggested going for independence if they had not been attacked – they really have no other choice. As part of Russia, they will have the full force and backing of Russia’s military, so obviously any attack on it – you don’t think the mad zombie Ukrainians wouldn’t attack the Russian Donbass, do you? – would have a very appropriate response.
Isn’t it interesting that a coven of harpies run the US government for Obama?
So, so sad that Hunter Biden will not get a cut of the fracking oil/gas resources of Donbass and Crimea as his dad’s “sell by date” is soon to expire…
As an aside, Nuland (aka cookie monster) has failed to acquire the resources rich parts of Ukraine necessary to help prevent the empire Ponzi scheme from imploding.
The Empire will never stop pushing and Putin should be aware of this by now!
I found it a bit of a struggle to figure out how Noodleman fits in to all this.
Then came across this interview with Scott Uehlinger.
Turns out that “sub-secretaries” are political/corporate/lobyist appointees from … dunno… alpha centauri, i guess. Nothing to do with what you knows as “politics”.
Here’s Scott Uehlinger, formerly of the company, so he should know.
It would make more sense if the purpose of the visit was not to negotiate, but to issue an ultimatum. To say that the US has had enough of Russia neutralizing its plans – to take over Syria, to take Crimea – and is finally going to go all out to win. That if Russia doesn’t back down, to expect a war. That would explain why they sent Nuland to Kaliningrad.
America can’t keep taking this kind of humiliation while claiming to be indispensable.
Two obvious possibilities come to mind – an invasion of Syria (apparently already underway) and an American-supported invasion of DPR / LPR.
According to Prof Stephen F Cohen(a real Kremlin specialist who speaks Russian,knows RF by heart,lived in RF and is almost neutral)things could get very very hot at any time now(on purpose or more likely by accident).Even worse that the Cuban missile crisis.
He is evoking a new type of nuclear weapon the Russians would have,which allows them to ‘calibrate’ the level of radioactivity released on a target via a missile.
Let’s say,ok:first warning,we bomb London but with a ‘light’ radiation one.
Second warning with a medium one.
And then the big fireworks.
Mrs Nuland did you get the message now?
Does anyone knows anything about this nuclear weaponery?
NATO Rearms Against Russia: 2/2/16: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU, Princeton, EastWestAccord.com.
The USA intends/has moved an upgrade to the B61 nuclear bomb to Europe (Germany). This upgrade, B61-12, possesses a dial-a-yield feature (0.3 – 340 kilotons):
The likelihood of a low-yield nuke actually being used is higher than the conventional fixed high-yield type. This makes it far more dangerous as subsequent escalation to high-yield is probable.
I am unaware of a Russian equivalent but I am no weapons expert. Anyone?
Comrade Vladislav Yurievich is a Virgo autumn equinox, so I am afraid he is a totally reliable comrade who carries out his work with responsibility and dedication trying to give the best of himself without expecting any public recognition, preferring always remain in the background.
Like other Virgo autumn equinox, enjoys the confidence or affection of someone influential or admirable for some reason, which brings him the envy and hatred of many and, sometimes, unfairly, carries other people’s faults.
Misunderstood by most in the first approach, those who manage to understand him will love him until the end of his days, but these will always be a minority and to these he will respond with loyalty and unwavering friendship.
Sometimes a bit fussy and stubborn, his tenacity and implacability make it an ideal candidate to negotiate with an entity Nuland style.
Perceptive and sensitive, if anyone can face a psychopath, put the record straight and make it desperate, without going out scalded, that’s a Virgo autumn equinox……
Thank you, Elsi. That is a perfect piece of information that explains a lot. He sounds like a perfect trusted colleague for Putin.
Yes, it makes sense.
I find it difficult to believe all the talk about Surkhov’s influence, making it look so unaccountably exorbitant. As if there was no one else in government but this one little man. Way far-fetched.
A tough, no-nonsense and faithful hard-worker, who labours strenuously to give concrete shape to gvt decisions, seems more believable.
Not that I know what really goes on. But saying that all the above-described feats can be solely assigned to this one gvt employee, as if no one supervised him at all, seems bizarre.
Well it may sound unscientific, considering that I do not know him personally, but, indulging my esoteric side (which I have) and based on the knowledge for nearly half a century of an authentic Virgo autumn equinox, I venture to launch these hypothesis.
It seems they(Nato and KSA)want to resolve ‘Ukraine’..in Syria very soon.
Turkey mad dictator and crazy KSA ready to invade Syria,which will be a new casus belli.
Saudi Arabia Declares Its Ground Forces Ready to Invade Syria
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160204/1034244705/saudi-ground-troops-syria.html#ixzz3zF9gR8X1
Turkey Planning Military Invasion in Syria – Russian Defense Ministry
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160204/1034221247/turkey-syria-military-invasion.html#ixzz3zFAzsPC7
Never in the Cold War Had US Put Its Military Force So Close to Russia
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/world/20160204/1034227642/us-russia-military-force.html#ixzz3zFAdy01J
The US is its own worst enemy.
It digs the holes that it is stuck in.
Russia brilliantly avoids a head on collision and applies minimal force to stymie the US as it turns and twists and digs itself deeper.
It’s like how a transistor uses a small amount of current to control a much larger flow of current.
For the entire year of its existence I have said Minsk 2 is the agent of change in Kiev. It will kill the junta and set loose the nazis against the American stooges.
I also have written here that it functions not as a means of settling the Donbass situation. It is meant to pry Ukraine from NATO. Ukraine is never going to get its border back unless it fulfills the Minsk 2 agreement.
It looks like a ceasefire, a truce, a peace-making deal. It is not that. Never was meant to be that.
It is a road map for Ukraine to come back to Russia, to the Eurasian Union, to put its military back in their barracks, to accept a reality that the fascists and criminals and American neo-cons don’t want.
Minsk 2 is Leningrad.
Sanctions are Stalingrad.
The Russians will never give up their position on these matters. And both realities are linked.
Just as Sanctions are linked to Crimea, and the Russians will never carve out Crimea ever.
So, don’t look for peace from Minsk 2. What it did was turn down the damage and deaths by 90%.
Meanwhile, understand this: Russian volunteers by the thousands are in the force structure defending Donbass. The new Army, no longer a militia, is structured to be a quasi-RF military organization. If the Ukies launch and offensive, they will be destroyed and more of Ukraine will belong to Donbass, Novorossiya project will be on, and Kiev will be in flames from their own lunatic people chasing the junta.
Will Minsk 2 ever be enacted? Maybe. That’s all anyone can say.
The US now has tried every tactic to upset Minsk 2. It is never going to have one word changed. The junta may never follow it. But their only option then is war. And they will lose so much in the next round of war and they know it. They will not only lose the war, the fighting, but they will lose at least one-third of their territory, all their ports, and all their functioning military.
Minsk 2 was a brilliant piece of diplomatic work by Putin.
All the king’s horses and all the king’s men can’t do a f*cking thing about it except force Ukraine to enact it exactly as it is stated.
Personally, I don’t believe Ukraine will ever do that. They are much closer to being non-existent as a viable nation-state than a compliant state obeying international agreements.
When they crumble, fall apart, Minsk 2 will have been the poison pill that took them down.
very nice metaphors Lenin-Stalingrad ……
Stratfor’s recent article say that for 2016 main issue in Kiyev is war of oligarchs= Russia not on table anymore. It actualy started being nasty as economy minister stepped down and Lyashko said that Putin has nothing to do with misery of ukrainian population.
This is amazing! I wondered about the statements that were made before the Nuland Surkov meeting that the USG expected Russia to fulfill the Minsk II. How can that be when Russia isn’t one of the parties, while Kiev and DPR/LPR are the parties? WHY – was the United States getting so heavily involved when no one from Washington was even there in the first place? It proves…Ukraine is now the US baby, and it’s proving to be more of problem than they anticipated to potty train it. And Minsk II it turns out only had unilateral support from Novo Rossiya, clearly Petya’s heart wasn’t really in it, because he knew that back at the ranch, they were heating up the branding irons for him if he tried to force them into a redo of the constitution, which was not going to happen – ever, if Novo Rossiya got any benefit from it. Sooo State tries to get Russia on the hook for it, and when that doesn’t work…well I guess it’s just time to scrap the whole thing, putting civil war back on the menu, which is the only thing they wanted anyway. The Odd comments made by Nuland are enlightening. I think it belies inside baseball, that the establishment is putting Clinton in the white house no matter what, election or no election, and those can be rigged anyway; matter of routine by now. Sort of makes the Republican candidates look like limited hang-out distractions doesn’t it? Let them stir up as much dust as they want, like in Iowa, while the election gets stolen right from under us for the upset Cinderella girl Clinton. And then the detractors in the alternative will spend the next four years grousing about how such a criminal suspect was able to be elected. Russia is probably taking note, and working out how best to manipulate her even as I write this.
The meeting between Nuland and Surkov was actually set up at the previous conference between Putin/Lavrov, and Nuland, Kerry, and Tefft.
Yes, Nuland tried to push the U.S. agenda a little too far.
I wouldn’t have minded being a fly on the wall, but Nuland would have been completely outclassed by Surkov.
Lavrov as the representative of the Russian Federation has it exactly right.
Quote “There has been a succession of public statements from top Russian officials over the last few weeks saying that it is Kiev not Moscow that must implement Minsk II, and that Russia refuses to talk about the sanctions with anyone, and will not be pressured by sanctions into doing what it believes is wrong.” Unquote.
It is the Kiev regime that refuses to implement Minsk II. But it’s not them that get sanctioned, they just kept getting fed more money by the IMF and other ‘well-meaning’ western governments and NGO’s to stuff in their pockets and bolster their armies (regular and not as much), so they can have the next go at D/LPR and instigate the next conflict.
They have to. The current Kiev regime clearly can’t survive politically without a existential crisis.
Which suits the US just fine, thankyou very much. Chaos is good as long as it’s not at home.
If the meeting was an attempt to bypass the diplomats and get to Putin directly, then, perhaps more importantly, it was also intended to bypass someone in the US. The US govt can always bypass everybody and talk to Putin, simply by having Obama call him. However, any such conversation and what was said would be available to all the different factions in the Whitehouse, Pentagon, CIA etc.
And Israel with thanks to the NSA
Russia is getting the same treatment as an accused in Canada’s kangaroo justice system who refuses a “flea deal”. Only a paranoid schizophrenic suffering from delusions would disagree with a fallacious arbitrary decree from an anonymous source as it’s laid out by western toadies, or alleged
counsels for “Her Majesty”.
Famous Oleg Lyashko currently said: Putin has nothing to do with thieves in this ( UA ) government.
Look what ukrainian MP Oleg Lyashko said about Putin: That he has nothing to do with theft being comited on UA population.
Due to popular demand, Canal+ is going to rerun the documentary “Les Masques de la Revolution” (The Masks of Revolution) about the 2014 Maidan events in Ukraine. The repeat will be broadcast on February 8, media reports said, referring to the channel’s broadcast content guide.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160203/1034140831/france-maidan-film.html#ixzz3zJfiNorn
The old dog Kissinger showed up to try one more time Here is what he said Russia Is Not a Threat to the US, But an Essential Partner in the World Order http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/russia-not-threat-us-essential-partner-world-order/ri12661
Good for Russia. Those who run the US are the worst of the worst. They have brought this problem unto themselves and now still want it their way. They need a good swift kick in the rear end.
Opposition activists describing the situation in #Aleppo as unbelievable, they did not expect the huge #Russia A-Force campaign
I don’t understand why Russia did not implement the Crimea model for the Donbass.
Why Minsk in the first place?
Why are my posts always deleted?
This is a great site for a wide viewpoint on Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East.
I usually post with a name but am leaving all blank, so maybe it will work this time.
It will be a good thing when the US dollar doesn’t work for trade anymore. It will hurt Americans but wake them up. There’s no other way to starve out the Neocon regime that controls the US. They must run out of $.
Nuland-Surkov meeting goes hand-in-hand with junta’s protege Leo Kuchma’s statement as he spoke to some UA media and then it was taken by AP as Kiyev’s story, but I knew as we know that junta has knife under neck so whatever they say is idea of junta’s masters and if they will not be succesful they can end up in multiple any kind of charges up to Hague. Here is news headline: “Ukraine hardens its position in negotiations to end the conflict in the country’s east, saying it must regain control of its entire border with Russia before elections can be held in the regions controlled by Russia-backed rebels”
or: Kiev to Donbass: First control over border, then amendments to constitution
It is clear how much Minsk2 is needle in the eye of empire.
Then another strange story show up: Poroshenko Forgets to Shake Hands With Merkel
and another one as Canal+ let go documentary about Maidan and Odessa and will be repeated in february 8th.
Suma sumarum. ( there is an article on some free web how america=banksters sent Hitler to russia ) Suma sumarum is that Russia plays excelent game. In motorsport we call it: who is first in curve. It means who steps on breaks before curve.
Here is my story, I am blogger in some former soviet bloc country. After Crimea reunification with Russia my readers asked me what is next and who is gonna win. I said: Putin will get what he wants. Why? In 1989 I welcomed change in Soviet bloc. But in mid 90’s my enthusiasm was over. It all turned into mafia’s style business not democracy. Then I studied what tehy call conspiracy theories. Then Russian leader kicked out all western backed oligarchs so it catch my eye. This guy became my white horse. For me it is like soap opera series beside it is reality show= Will conspiracy theories = central banks etc, be prooved or it is just paranoia? So I started watch all the stuff and compared it with my knowledge. Putin actually did everything possible 100+ % to prepare for this showtime. I always said: There is no need to discover america all over again just follow what west do and did. Stalin did the same just he alternated stuff
So for succes just do what they do. But. One will face monster oposition from them. Example: West is promoting freedom and demokracy but is killing secular governments in arabic countries while supporting nasty regimes as Saudi Arabia and they say they are our allies.
OK. So. West developed this stuff of propaganda for some 100 years. Foundation was set by Fabian Society ( after Fabius Maximus ) and methods: Non violent, assiduously,
So what Russia does is just copy-paste western methods.
Let’s come back to Ukraine. Readers asked me after coup: What will be Ukraine? I said: It will take 1 the best 2 most likely generations just to get economy back as it was in december 2014.
And question was about Russia: For Russia this is blessing. Russia is selfstanding country and they do not need anybody interfere in their domestic affairs. + Russians are not so spoiled as westernerns do and in case of emergency governmnet can give them free energy. I said: For Russia Putin is a founder of the New Era. About this guy countless books will be written and countless movies will be made.
We live in Putin’s era. Baba Vanga and Edgra Cayce predicted it and we have to respect it.
This is so reassuring!
Since Netherlands is not aware today, Saturday, 6 February, 2016, of the UN legal findings for Julian Assange yesterday, that will be true of most other EU nations as well.
Alexander Mercouris is one of the handful of powerful, honest,global news analysts so I hope that this piece is put out in such a way it is freely globally available. As the US marches closer to more hot war in Europe, now targeting the Baltic countries, naturally the threat to any alternative news grows in tandem to the poisonous bluster dissected here.
The UN Independent actions yesterday as well as the extent this is known globally, will effect what the US will attempt to use to force on Europe that American wishes are made concrete. One would hope that China will be the main nation to step up and support United Nations independence as the US expressed several years ago the desire and plan to eliminate the UN and to replace it with NATO. Being a quite rigid superpower, such plans do not change as reality changes.
At least one person besides Putin does not distrust Surkov. Alexandr Zakharchenko has said Surkov has always been there for him and for Donbass. A man to ride the river with.
Perhaps you should diversify your sources. You are talking pure Strelkov.
Surkov (the Marmot) is virulently hated by Strelkov, trusted and admired by Putin and Zakharchenko. What three better references could you have?
I must say, your articles here on thesaker.is are consistently interesting and apparently well researched. Thanks for the work you all do…. I appreciate being able to read them.
That’s really odd.
The Americans may be so into their computer sims and modelling, they forget there is no reloading saved games in real life for a do-over.
Or Nuland is a space alien who infected Surkov with blood nanobots.