Something absolutely huge has just happened in Russia: the Russian Council of the Federation, the equivalent of the US Senate, has just UNANIMOUSLY passed a resolution allowing Putin to use Russian armed forces in the Ukraine, something the Duma had requested earlier.  Before the vote took place, Russian senators said that Obama had threatened Russia, insulted the Russian people and that they demanded that Putin recall the Russian ambassador to the USA.  I have never seen such a level of outrage and even rage in Russia as right now.

I hope and pray that Obama, and his advisers, stop and think carefully about their next step because make no mistake about that RUSSIA IS READY FOR WAR.

Now, the resolution of the Council of the Federation does not, repeat, NOT, mean that Russian forces will move into the Ukraine.  Key Russian politicians have already spoken out and clarified that all this did was give the authority to Putin to use the armed forces, but that he was free to decide on whether this was needed or not.

Yet, this is a warning which should not be taken lightly.  The way I see it, it not only means that Russia will act to protect Crimea, but that there is a real possibility that Russia could even use its armed forces elsewhere in the Ukraine and this is a huge development.

In the past days I have listened to many Russian experts, lots of talkshows, political statements, etc. and I was amazed by the fact that nobody even suggested that Russia should intervene militarily.  Everybody agreed that Russia should support the Russian speakers in the Ukraine politically, financially, and morally.  But nobody mentioned the use of force.  So what happened since?

1) some kind of attack on Crimea overnight
and
2) Obama’s absolutely imbecile and reckless threats against Russia

And this combination really set things off.  Now, every single political party in the Council of the Federation and every single representative have voted to allow the use of Russian armed force.  That would be the equivalent of the US President getting each member of the House and the Senate to vote to allow him to wage war.

I need to make something else clear here: no amounts of threats will stop the Kremlin now, all that will achieve is to get even more of the public reaction of support for Putin.  And if some wannabe Napoleon or Hitler decided to try to use military forces against Russia the latter will go to war, no matter who is standing against it.

The USA and the EU have to realize that they dangerously overplayed their hand in the Ukraine: they have used neo-Nazis to overthrow a totally corrupt and incompetent President, but a legitimate one, in the process they have wrecked the Ukrainian state apparatus, by allowing so much wanton violence and racist slogans they have totally freaked out the eastern and southern Ukraine, and by either conducting or allowing an attack on Crimea they have threatened the Russian population and the Black Sea Fleet.  That is yet another absolute and TOTAL DISASTER of the Obama Presidency.  This man is as dishonest, as he is mediocre, arrogant and reckless and I hope and pray that the US Joint Chiefs are going to have a “frank exchange of views” with him as soon as possible.  In an ideal world, the Congress should have impeached that despicable loser, but since they are even worse then him, it is for the JCS to act.

The Russians are united, they are really angry and they know that they have the military strength to defend their country and their people in the near abroad.  I don’t recommend anybody doubt their resolve because if Russia is attacked its response will be devastating: think 08.08.08 but on a vast scale.

I think that a disaster can, and will, be avoided.  I even hope that the Russian military will not move into the Ukraine, but the US has to rein in both the insurgency government and the Fascists in the streets and tell them all to “cool it”.  The next necessary step is to spot the nationalists from trying to seize further buildings in the east and southern Ukraine.  Last, but not least, the USA and Russia should get together to strike some deal which would allow the Ukraine to formally survive as a unitary state, but make it a de-facto confederation with a purely symbolic presidency.

The leaders of the USA and the EU have to now understand that they are playing with fire and that this is not a “Ukrainian” problem: now they themselves are at risk of ending up in a war against Russia, possibly a nuclear one.  And even if they never admit to that publicly, they need to at least have to courage to admit to themselves that they themselves created that situation and that the responsibility for it is fully theirs.

The Saker

The Essential Saker: from the trenches of the emerging multipolar world