When you go to vet school, they teach you a simple principle: if you are under a bridge and you hear hooves, think of horses first, but don’t forget there are also zebras out there.
This is exactly what comes to my mind when I hear all the speculation about the shooting down of the Ukrainian airliner by a IRGC SAM.
Let’s begin with a few horses:
Seems to me that the most logical assumption and assume human error, especially since the Iranian have already admitted full responsibility. Furthermore, there is no imaginable reason for the Iranian to have shot down this aircraft deliberately (did you know that most of the passengers were either Iranian nationals or of Iranian descent?).
Next, for the life of me I don’t see how Iran can be accused of trying to hide the truth when then admitted full responsibility even long before the investigation was concluded. Not only that, but HAD they wanted to hide the truth, it would have been extremely simple, really: they were in FULL control of a war zone. They could have ejected all civilians and claimed that the US had bombed the location to conceal its role, or something equally insipid. Instead, they first said “show us your evidence” and then they declared “we will show you OUR evidence which shows OUR guilt”. Compare that with what the US does when it shoots down and airliner (either when they admit it, like the Iran Air 665, or when they cover it up, like TWA 800 or Itavia Flight 870 or, even more crucially, all the CIVILIAN Soviet airliners shot down over Afghanistan by CIA run insurgents!).
As for the protests, they are simply yet another sign that, just as in Russia and the USA, Iran has a 5th column which is willing to make use of absolutely ANY pretext to try to overthrow the legal government. A gas explosion in downtown Tehran, or a train wreck, or even a local tornado – for these folks anything is just one more pretext to overthrown the Islamic Republic and hand their country over to Uncle Shmuel.
So what else is new? We see the exact same 5th columnist all over the globe.
As for Trump chiming in his admiration for the Iranian people, that is just a sign that the White House lacks serious Iran specialists, that’s all. As for the Idiot-in-Chief or the Malevolent Manatee – we already know that they are as ignorant as they are narcissistic. Again, nothing newsworthy here.
Lots of unanswered questions however.
Frankly, the story as presented by the Iranians makes no sense to me (not because I think that they are lying, but because there are a lot of information holes which need to be plugged). Why did the Iranian civil and military authorities not close down the Iranian airspace (which the US side, by the way, seemed to have done). Next, did the Iranian air defenses not get all the flight plans of all the aircraft in Iranian space? I had the privilege to participate in a few air defense exercises as a young man, and not only did we have full access to all the flight plans of any civilian aircraft over all of Europe, we even had their transponder signals live on our main displays. Was the Ukrainian transponder on? I strongly suspect that yes as a PIC cannot take off without this instrument in perfect working order (at least this was the case with European airlines in the 80s and 90s).
The commander of the SAM unit explained that he had 10 seconds to take a decision and that he got NO order from the higher instances (regimental, divisional, national air defense authorities). I don’t have any reason to doubt him, but if he indeed speaks the truth, then this shows a glaring weakness of the Iranian air defenses. Not only was his audio/video call for instructions not answered, the air defense networks were either down or frozen. HOW could that happen in a theoretically very redundant and highly survivable military network?!
Then there is the Ukrainian PIC. The logical thing for him to do would have been to contact his corporate bosses in Kiev and they might even have contacted the Ukrainian authorities. The question is WHO and WHY took the decision to take off when the situation was self-evidently fantastically dangerous.
Questions, questions and more questions indeed…
Now a look at zebras
Could a US drone have shot the airliner? Could the US have conducted a cyber-attack?
Maybe. But, as I often like to remind everybody, “possible” is very, very far form “likely”.
For example, what would be the US motive? I don’t see one.
Why choose a Ukrainian airliner? Again, this makes no sense to me.
Then, a cyberattack is all fine and dandy until we look into details.
Was the putative cyberattack directed at, hmmmmm what exactly?! The computers are radars of the civilian ATC? The IRGC air defense network? The specific SA-12 battery? Maybe the Ukrainian airliner? Maybe at all of these at the same time?
Yeah, maybe. But, as I think Carl Sagan, liked to say “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” and in this case, there is ZERO evidence. Yes, tons of speculation, but speculation does not amount to evidence, not even indirect evidence.
So what are we hearing, horses or zebras?
Frankly, I would love to blame it all on the US or Israel but, alas, I don’t see even a shred of any real evidence supporting this hypothesis. Maybe we will see it in the next few days, weeks or months, and I will GLADLY admit that I was wrong. But, alas, the way I see it is that the most logical and likely explanation is a major, huge and most embarrassing SYSTEMIC problem in the Iranian air defenses.
This says ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about “the regime” or about “the Mollahs” or anything else. There have been quite a few civilians airliners shot down by mistake and even deliberately, and there will be more. To blame “the regime” for that monumental screw-up is simply illogical to the extreme. This kind of misguided logic makes someone always blame “the regime” when accidents happen in a country one does not approve off, but only blame “fate” or the “will of God” or even “Murphy’s Law” when (even HUGE) accidents happen in politically correct-countries. This is not only hopelessly partisan, this is also infantile.
However, it is also likely that there were MANY folks in the Iranian air defense which showed criminal recklessness and that these shall be punished, and not just easy fall-guys like the poor battery commander (who took the correct decision knowing and NOT knowing what he knew and did not know at the time, but higher up, on the level of both political and managerial responsibility: colonels and generals. Not “the regime” but SPECIFIC colonels and generals, yes.
As for the actions of “the regime” I find them almost ideally honest, open, speedy and honorable. In fact, almost too honorable. I understand that the IRGC is an elite organization which will demand that some of its leaders now “fall on their swords”, but I am actually concerned that the Iranian authorities are almost TOO willing to accept blame. I still think that there are waaaay too many unanswered questions and until we get clear answers, including to nitty-gritty “details” answers, we ought to wait before jumping to any conclusions.
Before I quit, let’s make one last comparison: let’s compare how neutral, democratic, noble, and otherwise putatively “civilized” SWITZERLAND acted when by the TOTAL fault of Swiss Air Traffic Control a Russian passenger jet and a US cargo jet crashed into each other over southern Germany. Look it up yourself, and watch the excellent movie made about the father of one of the victims.
If on that instance Switzerland truly scoped a shameful F- then Iran deserves a solid A+, at least in any objective comparison.
I’ve seen UNCONFIRMED reports claiming that the US was jamming Iran’s radar system from Qatar. Hence why the Qatari emir visited Iran today, where he allegedly offered to pay the families of the victims in Iran’s name. Again these are all allegations and claims, time will tell what was said in this meeting today.
This might well be true, but really does not answer the key question: why was ANY civilian air traffic allowed at all? Furthermore, SA-12 are hardly second rate systems, I don’t think that the US could so easily jam it, especially from so far away while the SA-12 was pretty darn close. Again, if that jamming happened, there should be plenty of evidence of it (jamming is NOT a covert activity, to say the least). In truth, and you know me, I would LOVE to absolve Iran and put it all on the US/NATO/CENTOM or the ‘only democracy in the Middle-East” which, by the way, is delusional, narcissistic and racist enough to spread the rumor that Israel did it. Why? Because the Israelis are SOOOOOOO smart, SOOOOOOO superior, SOOOOOOO high-tech and generally SOOOOOOO invincible that resistance if futile. Right? So some media outlet like Debka or VT will announce that this crash was the result of a sooper dooper secret high tech Israeli weapon while Israeli politicians will only serenely smile and sort of “not deny it too much”.
Yup, while they sure ain’t that bright and even more for sure ain’t invincible, they *are* the masters of selling bullshit in huge amounts. The problem is that still most people listen to this kind of garden variety propaganda.
And, lastly, I wonder: which of the following countries will be the first to blame Russia: the US, the Ukraine, the UK or Canada?
Even in these tragic times we need to try to find a way to smile through our tears, don’t we?
Yes, only mistake in this whole situation is why the airspace was not closed down for civilian planes as soon as rockets were launched at Iraq. AA battery commander may or may not erred in judgment, but he can not be held solely responsible for situation he was placed into – these things happen in fog of war.
Almost all of people on MoA are nitpicking on technical aspects of why and how, yet small number of them discuss the root mistake of all – not closing the airspace.
“(jamming is NOT a covert activity, to say the least).”
and I assure you that none of that is covert – the Iranians would immediately see all this
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force (IRGC AF) won’t release any data to international investigators that could potentially compromise the capabilities and/or limitations of their air defense systems. The operator(s) responsible for firing the missile that hit flight PS752 won’t be held accountable since they acted within the scope of their responsibilities and followed the rules of engagement under such unique circumstances – a painful reality during times of war.
Everything you see in the media (including social networks) is only political noise that won’t have any repercussions on the Iranian regime despite the potential sanctions that may come out as a result of this incident; and most likely, authorities in Iran are right now in the process of negotiating everything related to the financial compensation for the victims’ survivors. End of story.
So it would be impossible for some CIA asset to find its way somewhere around the outskirts of the runways with a shoulder fired missile ?
I really thought that this is what happened. It was too perfectly timed for the US.
Thanks for chiming in, Saker.
I saw a story earlier today, claiming that the Israelis hacked into the Boeing’s electronics and disabled its transponder somehow, causing the air defense crew to mistake it for a missile. The story seemed a little too glib when I read it. Can’t recall now, in what forum I saw it.
This, and the MoA article linked below, both seem a little more realistic. No it wasn’t zebras, mistakes were made, and the incident probably finally happened inside a ten-second decision window. The absolute truth is hard to discern, but some (many) stories are likely fictitious.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing; civilian air traffic should have been grounded for a while.
IRGC had asked the government to close down the airspace, they declined. Why?
Perhaps because the government didn’t find it to be necessary cause they had reassurance from the Americans they would not retaliate if Iranian retaliation was proportionate and there were no US casualties (save face understanding between US and Iran thanks to Swiss embassy as middleman).
Strange thing was IRGC air defenses were at the highest alert level, 3. Yet the government did not communicate the “save face” understanding back to the IRGC, so there was actually no need to be at the highest alert level.
Could it be the Americans have hacked into IRGC, interfered with their communication lines, perhaps spoofed their information into making the IRGC think a cruise missile was launched? There is the possibility that Americans knew an accident was prone to happen, hence they issued a no fly ban over Iraq and Iran, spoofed and hacked their way into pushing the IRGC into making a mistake.
There is also the possibility that one faction among the rulers in Iran wants to get rid of the other faction (IRGC) because of the sanctions. The IRGC is the bottleneck to that faction that wants to get rid of sanctions.
“why was ANY civilian air traffic allowed at all?”
Because the Iranians were under the impression that the US were not going to counter strike.
Which presupposes an agreement with the US on the terms of the response …
Could US fighter jets pretend (spoof) to be cruise missiles? Perhaps that is why the IRGC detected a cruise missile launch. I do know 4 F-35s were heading to the Iranian border before the fatal accident happened.
Cruise missiles hug the ground as not to be detected, only the target can see a cruise missile incoming at it at the very last moment. Also cruise missiles broadcast a beacon pretending to come from a Boeing airliner.
why was their civilian air traffic? I believe the answer to this question is that the retaliatory attack on the US interests was pre-negotiated and the Iranians knew they wouldn’t violate the deal and thus there would be no escalation.
Those who knew felt there was no need to ground the civilian aircraft, and those that didn’t, well we know the rest of the story.
I do agree with closure of the airspace. But between the last rockets launched and the Ukrainian flight, something like 10 other flights departed from the airport WITHOUT problems.
Someone has some more ‘splaining to do
The radar system may have been jammed also from Ramstein, Germany…
According to an article I have read it is from there where the drone which killed Soleimani and Al-Muhandes was being managed…
Are you by any chance familiar with the concept of “line of sight”, Anonymous?
A study of some physics might help too – especially electromagnetism.
Unless you are implying that a drone (they are not all that stealthy, but there’s that peculiar global hawk) carrying jamming equipment was over Iran and was activated to set up false flag?
Stretching things a bit because jamming is an active, not a passive, technology – it would have been detected by other systems.
Escobar makes a very good case (on Facebook) for it being a US EW attack that duped the Iranian AD to fire. Answers most of the questions above.
Actually, I saw Pepe’s post and for the life of me I don’t see where he answers any of my points above! Do you care to be more specifics? The way I see it is the exact way around, I think that I addressed HIS points :-P
PEPE – if you are reading this, please chime in: who replied to whom? Me to you or you to me?
Pepe E. reminds me of one of those tenacious ‘bad ass’ African honey badgers when working on a story.
He has been ‘high risk’ speculating on FB recently but I also share some of his views and insights about cultural dynamics (honor-shame etc). Whether he can did this one out is yet to be seen. And a disproved hypothesis has value is he fails. As he wrote in frustration “what investigative journalism is all about.”
I also agree with him about “simplistic, official – Iranian – story on the ”human error”” and applaud his efforts to get deeper into “what induced that human error” etc. That is an angle worth digging for rather than oxygen consuming (and ultimately distracting) discussions about Flightradar24 data etc.
Nobody can answer your questions/points at present beyond speculation.
You reiterate above “why was ANY civilian air traffic allowed at all?”
Exactly. But is the “why?” question really the one to ask?
There are bound to be many possible complex reasons — including political (I cannot see it, but it may be possible as a cultural vector); strategic (civilian cover); incompetence (human and bureaucratic); naivety (trusting US and diplomatic channels etc); over confidence (in technology not matched by complementary psyop standards); and as Larchmonter445 puts it here “Rigid ideological systems tend to produce rigid vertical power institutions.”
Although it is only a very subtle distinction, perhaps asking “how?” would be more useful — especially for an post ante audit etc. As 445 also says: “missile defenses and communication within integrated systems may not be first rate.” And the evolutionary aspect of this US vs Iran (post-modernity’s no-facts duplicity vs pre-modern romanticism) contest has a certain Darwinian-ism about it.
As one line of systems thinking goes, the “cultural feasibility” trumps (no pun intended) the systemic desirability. Historically (well macro history more correctly) sees cycles and archetypes at play. The Persians have been on the receiving end of ‘action learning’ lessons since Alexander and Darius III (both claiming the ‘the great’ title etc). Echo’s Trump and …? The the skulls to height of walls invasions from central Asia (Mongol) etc.
This was/is simply a major stuff up. Now the ‘punishments’ will begin and the cultural dynamics play out on the world stage — meanwhile Trump & Co are chomping on popcorn, reading the plot and creating new ‘facts’ as for this simple “reality-based community” east of Baghdad (is a derisive term for people who base judgments on facts.) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality-based_community) .
From that same site, the now classic statement:
“The aide said that guys like me were ‘in what we call the reality-based community,’ which he defined as people who ‘believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.’ […] ‘That’s not the way the world really works anymore,’ he continued. ‘We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do’.”
To put all that long-winded-ness into the local idiom: The Persians have “Trusted in God, but failed to tie up their camel.” (or words to that effect). [ and remember ‘camel’ is not the name of the biological animal in Arabic, … rather it is a label that refers to Beauty (Jamal). I’ve long since forgotten the actual biological animal name — starts with Bir… or something?]
Last point, as I understand your appreciation of more subtle and esoteric perspectives — The Book of Job comes to mind, and it is not hard to see who the football is in this current worldly game.
“According to experts, the US military had deliberately changed the information on the Ukrainian Boeing 737 flight, making it a real target for the Iranian air defense systems.”
Dear Saker – and Saker community,
This is Pepe Escobar. Yes, I’m deep into the story, awaiting official responses from Tehran that never arrive, also with other Iran connections working on the possibility of a cyber attack, and unlike The Saker, I am NOT convinced by the official IRGC explanation. Most of my questions are on my FB page. But then, this morning Paris time, I received a stunning analysis by the great William Engdahl and a very informed group. I’m sending it to you, Saker, in English with a link to the original in German. Get ready to start asking even MORE questions. Thank you all.
I feel honored that Pepe Escobar paid us a visit. Thanks Pepe!
Okay, great, send it to me. I would love to see it.
Here’s another analysis for what it’s worth, by Joe Quinn of SOT:
A bit of topic of this article, but on topic on the general US vs Iran conflict: Johan Galtung predicted the collapse of the US Empire in 2020:
Galtung has also accurately predicted the 1978 Iranian revolution; the Tiananmen Square uprising of 1989 in China; the economic crises of 1987, 2008 and 2011; and even the 9/11 attacks—among other events, according to the late Dietrich Fischer, academic director of the European University Center for Peace Studies.
Some parts of the article:
“Back in 2000, Galtung first set out his prediction that the “US empire” would collapse within 25 years. After the election of President Bush, though, he revised that forecast five years forward because, he argued, Bush’s policies of extreme militarism would be an accelerant”
These predictions seem dubious to me, is there anywhere in the cloud that is recorded before the actual events occurred or was this a broad prediction that was interpreted after the fact like a nostradomous? I would not take these predictions seriously unless such documentation was available.
But the main book setting out Galtung’s fascinating forecast for the US is his 2009 book, The Fall of the American Empire—and then What?
Then someone describes just how this so called fall is going to take place, I can see many situations that prevent a fall, one or two situations where a reform takes place. But its a long shot, and I mean a long one, that this fall is going to take place any time soon. Even if I held the keys to the fall, I would hold out to make certain it was not a total global event.
The human race has been a doomed race since near the beginning of time, (and yet it always has a mechanism to at least survive), and there is no indication that that will change any time in the next century, so why try to encourage its demise any sooner than is absolutely necessary.
It is fully capable of collapsing on its own, today’s youth are a scarecrow of a species compared to the animals who tamed the continent some 200 years ago, but one empires fall only leads to another empires beginning, none of which are able to prevent the continuation of being a doomed species to begin with. To bad the guy is not around to defend himself and his beliefs.
The great strength of Norwegian founder of “peace studies” Johan Galtung is the utter simplicity of his methods of research and analysis. An excellent mathematician and statistician, he also holds a degree in sociology, and went to Harvard without becoming utterly corrupted while he taught there at the time Kissinger and Hermann Kahn also were very active at Harvard.
Very simple analyses — and thus eminently discussable ideas.
Well there is the early story of a mechanical failure and the plane was returning and got shot-down, as an incoming wasnt’ in the flight plan.
The problem here is that the lies and mis-information began from the start.
1.) The drop-zone, did it look like a inflight fire, or was it a clean drop
2.) Did they drop their fuel?
3.) Did the plane augur in from loss of lift?, drop like a rock, or glide descent?
4.) Was there an early report of mechanical problem?? Yes or No, this is critical
Then there is the issue of passengers?
1.) This was a war-zone, why were they allowed to fly this route??
2.) Who exactly were the Iranian nationals? Were they Ukraine agents of Mossad?
3.) We were told they were mainly Canadians, now Iranians, were they Iranian-Canadians? But why based in Ukraine?
IMHO they were in a big hurry to get these people out, and the I think the GOV took them out, because they were escaping
I think the early reports of a mechanical failure and return were bullshit, just early disinformation by Iran Gov, obfuscation, not unlike Mossad they didnt’ invent “By way of deception, We rule”
The early video, which NYT was johnny on the spot, did we ever figure out who took it? Did they know like the 911 dancing israelis? Who just happened to be there filming?
What is known is the Iran Gov took credit, but is this like Trump taking credit for killing Soleimani? We know Trump was out of the loop, so taking credit doesn’t really mean anything. Perhaps the Iranians just wanted closure?? Perhaps they didn’t want to participate in a NTSB full investigation in their country, perhaps it was best just close the problem tit4tat, as the US had prior shot-down Iran civilian flights. Also this is good precedent for Iran, it tells the west that Iran has a hair trigger and that flights not transponding and communicating and known-known will be shot down.
I really think most of this falls back on Ukraine. What the hell were they thinking? The USA had closed the air-space right after killing the general. This isn’t the first time Ukraine let planes fly through active war-zones, they seem to have a habit of this, like they want this kind of ‘false flag’ to occur.
What was the hurry, who were these people really? How were they really tied to Iran/Ukraine & Canada, the three country’s we hear about the most in this flight. Who were these nationals? Were they, had they been active in the Ukraine coup? Had they been operating in Iran?
I think all this fall’s on Ukraine. They ran the plane in a war-zone, at the worst possible time.
What are the pilots family’s saying? Were the pilots forced to fly? Did somebody threaten them, certainly any rational pilot would have requested a detour.
I think the GOV took them out, because they were escaping
And that thought is based on what exactly?!
Sorry, I don’t see it. Instead of arresting them on the ground, they were in a hurry to shoot them over their own capital?!
Can you clarify?
Plus to date there were no admitted big wigs on the plane at the time, this is relevant.
According to the Canadian MSM a vast majority of the ”canadians” on board,were former Ukrainian who got the CA nationality,being first or second generation.Lots of of ex Ukrainians live in the Prairies provinces(Saskatoon,Winnipeg,Regina).
I think also that Ukies have most of responsibility.
I’m ex civilian airline flight personal and I few things are sticked to me from all the stories and possibilities beside the fact that Iran could really close the airspace.
Who the hell in Ukraine allowed them to go to Teheran the tickets and passengers could be solved with companies more integrated with system in the area.
There we’re a lot of reports I cannot follow fast enough who lies who not but I heard plane had technical issues and company mechanic on board said they should fly. If they stayed down they wouldn’t be strucked.
Lastly I don’t know how Iranian PVO (Anti Air) unit that shot the plane works if in automatic mode but I heard that those Boeing transponder could be blured from USA so it could trigger the BUK reaction.
Anyway thanks Saker not only in this case but always you demonstrate that slavonic sharpness.
Not that it has any relevance, one of the Ukrainian passengers, a lady, may have been the CEO of a Ukrainian airline. I looked her up on linkedin. A number of the passengers were Afghan too.
Oddly enough, Ukrainian International Airlines is partly owned by the infamous Ukrainian-Israeli oligarch, politician and energy tycoon Igor Kolomoisky, who was notably one of the biggest financiers of the anti-Russian, pro-EU coup d’etat which overthrew the democratically elected government of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014.
Kolomoisky is also a principal backer of current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky whose dubious phone call with Trump resulted in the 45th U.S. president’s impeachment last month.
In another astounding coincidence, Kolomoisky’s Privat Group is believed to control Burisma Holdings, the Cypress-based company whose executive board 2020 presidential candidate Joe Biden’s son Hunter was appointed to following the Maidan junta.
The former Vice President admitted that he bribed Ukraine into firing its top prosecutor who was looking into his son’s corruption by threatening to withhold $1 billion in loan guarantees.
Kolomoisky, AKA “the Chameleon”, is one of the wealthiest people in the ex-Soviet country and was formerly appointed as governor of an administrative region bordering Donbass in eastern Ukraine following the 2014 putsch. He has also funded a battalion of volunteer neo-Nazi mercenaries fighting alongside the Ukrainian army in the War in Donbass against Russian-speaking separatists which the military aid temporarily withheld by the Trump administration that was disputably contingent upon an investigation of Biden and his son goes to.
In 2014, another infamous plane shootdown made international headlines when Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 (MH17) scheduled from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was shot down over the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 passengers and crew.
In answer to your query, we still don’t know about the passengers, we know 65 Canadians, we know majority are said to be Iran Nationals. But the likelihood of a Ukraine plane, with the same guy who has a hard-on for Russia, the same guy who is trying to curry favor with Trump.
IMHO we need to know more about these passengers, and then it will be clear why this airplane was taken out, lastly as we know some six hours elapsed from the Iran bombing on US bases in Iraq, just maybe the folks at CIA-Mossad this would be the most unexpected retribution, because it would make Iran look like morons, but they did the right thing by coming clean. Like the take-out of Soleimani, which was telegraphed by Mossad, and probably lased also for the drone targeting, most likely somebody had the flight list, knew the transponder codes and sacrificed this plane, besides our boy in Ukraine ( Kolomoisky ), he probably needed the tax-loss and insurance claim, like the 911 guys.
Yes, its hard to believe 6 hours after Iran retaliated a US base in Iraq, that the big-wigs weren’t trying to get out of dodge on the last flight available for the night. ( note it was still dark as shown in the video when the plane was hit ). Certainly there were big-wigs, or most likely their were people on board critical to the Ukraine-ANZ-Mossad agenda in Iran. Perhaps there was even a team investigating Kolomoisky
This possibility was speculated in personal talks among friends, but it is just speculation, right now.
Other friend told me that looks like a trap, in which the Iranians fell in but also the USA could not completly hide their tail…
3.) We were told they were mainly Canadians, now Iranians, were they Iranian-Canadians? But why based in Ukraine?
There is a fairly large Iranian-Canadian community it is the end of the Xmas holidays for schools & universities in Canada and the Ukrainian flight was cheap.
We lost a lot of Canadians for similar reasons on Air India Flight 182.
This all came as a result of US killing of Suleimany.
– wanted to kill Suleimany
– they did. A slap to Iran. 1:0 USA
– Vowed revenge.
– Didn’t kill any Americans in the retaliatory strike. A dud, still 1:0 USA. Material damage is irrelevant.
– Held a huge funeral, 31 innocent people got trampled to death. Beyond embarrassing, just shows incompetence. Own goal by Iran, 2:0 USA
– Shot down an airliner, killed 176 civilians. Again own goal 3:0 USA.
On the onset of this whole thing I thought that Iran will show might and power and if not at least some sort of finesse. It simply shot itself in the foot twice and shot at the bad guy and missed. Iran went down in my eyes as a result. Their “victories” are moot points since they haven’t materialized.
Yes I know that the US is in hot water as a result but they have been there before, and judging by the recent events they have no reason to hurry.
Are you serious?!
First, Iran did take retaliatory action, very effectively (see Iraqi Par resolution)
No US Americans killed – no pretext for the US to attack Iran
31 people died in a FIVE MILLION crowd? That shows a FANTASTIC level of competence in crowd control. Have you ever been in a real big crowd? With MILLIONS all in one location, even HUNDREDS of dead would have been seen as inevitable.
Shot down the airliner? Yes, indeed. How that makes the US look bad (ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON WITH THE USA!!) is really beyond me.
You guys all seems to see the same thing, are you watching the same TV channels?
And you are missing the points I make.
Shall I put then in red?
Would that help?
In an information war, all those tragedies are going to be used against Iran, especially when the enemy is completely devoid of decency and the only war they can wage confidently is the information war. So yes, those tragedies did hurt Iran, both for loss of life of Iranians, and in the media.
What they did *not* do is change the new reality that Iran can hit any target it wants and that the best available defense systems can’t stop them. The old reality: the US could launch a military attack without any fear of direct reprisals. New reality: direct reprisals are guaranteed and they will hurt. Iran will not graciously warn them in advance every time.
No country since 1950 has openly attacked the US military and bragged about it. And the US reaction was “that didn’t hurt much, so no big deal.” Wouldn’t this have been the perfect opportunity to bomb all those super dangerous nuclear facilities the neocons drone about nonstop? When will they have a better excuse than that? Why did they pass it up?
BTW, here was the Iranian Missile attack looked like from the business end:
This is an altogether new experience for the US military.
Here’s something else that was posted the other day:
There’s no indication or any confirmation of where it was, or for that matter when it occurred. So make your own judgement regarding authenticity.
But the general point that Lysander is making here is correct. Numerous events have occurred and will occur. Some will be more significant and relevant than others, depending on what one is trying to understand. And all will depend on perspective. To illustrate this last point, we can imagine that to the families of the people in that airliner, Trump or Soleimani or any of this other craziness simply doesn’t matter at the moment.
That is from Tianjin 2015, not from Iraq or Iran…
Norwegian, yes, the second half of the video is clearly different from the first half. But Tianjin had nothing to do with sirens and an attempted interception. So that recording was obviously appended for effect (exaggeration). This calls into question the authenticity of the first half, which may or may not have been made the other night.
Where and when was the first half of the video made? Nothing like this has occurred in Iraq. Perhaps it’s from Israel?
The US army forgot how to fight a real war against a determined enemy. Like Frank Reed said about unused armies and the fact that they just tend to use Special Ops in the last 10 years. The rank and file has grown comfortable.
What I’m saying is this – the US did real damage and Iran stumbled in return while retaliating without drawing blood. The US action was more daring and deadly than the Iranian retaliation, after which the US didn’t escalate. The US didn’t escalate in the drone situation either. This seems to be the Trump doctrine, talk a lot of shit, throw low blows and don’t escalate beyond what you think is manageable.
The new reality is multifaceted, and different interpretations can be true at the same time.
Here’s what I got out of the whole thing, I’ll start with your point with which I agree:
1) New reality: direct reprisals are guaranteed and they will hurt.
2) New Reality: The US got away with a dirty act of terror with (to them) acceptable costs. They will simply ignore the will of the Iraqi parliament and the material damage to the base is for them insignificant.
3) Iran showed very serious flaws in their military as well (downing of the plane).
At best this shuffling of cards is a draw for Iran but i really think that they lost more than they gained.
No, I see the points that you make, I just don’t think that that viewpoint as valid as in plain numbers the US lost only their mask and Iran lost a top general that they failed to revenge so far. Shia unity is great and all but at the end of the day actions speak louder than words and he’re I’m only talking about actions. Not sentiments.
Regarding your points.
“First, Iran did take retaliatory action, very effectively (see Iraqi Par resolution)”
OK, well that was done by Iraq (I guess we can say Iran as all is part of the resistance) and the effectiveness is questionable as the US vowed not to leave. This is huge but it simply re-classifies the US as a occupational force and the US simply does not care about that and there is little Iraq can do about it. I wish it wasn’t the case but y wishes are irrelevant to reality just as the vote is to the US.
“31 people died in a FIVE MILLION crowd? That shows a FANTASTIC level of competence in crowd control.”
I’ve been in crowds demonstrating on the streets in the 90’s as a teenager which numbered a couple hundred thousand.No one died. Sure five million is an enormous number, but still 31 died and I’ll just disagree that this is in any manner fantastic crowd control. This is a second hand killing by the US, one way or the other (fantastic crowd control or not) Iran lost 31 more people and US lost none.
“Shot down the airliner? Yes, indeed. How that makes the US look bad (ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON WITH THE USA!!) is really beyond me.”
You probably meant “how does this make Iran look bad”. Well it does make Iran look bad, not the US. They shot an airliner in a knee jerk reaction that displayed all of the flaws of the Iranian AA system that they so much pride themselves with.
And no, I’m not tuned into any TV channels, only independent websites sometimes, RT although rarely lately as it’s milk-toast news for those needing the red pill and I got mine 20 years ago, and the rest is this site, Unz, club Orlov, Moon of Alabama and such.
So no, I’m not a TV zombie by any stretch.
I completely agree with you. The events that took place are ( until now, at least ) showing a humiliating defeat for Iran.
USA 3 – Iran 0.
I am completely disappointed with the outcome of all of this. I would even dare say that the reason why Iran didn’t retaliate fully for the murder of the second most important personality of the state of Iran is probably because Russia told Iran it will not support it in a case of an all-out war against United States.
Total victory for the Zionists, total defeat for Iran.
I wonder why people fool themselves that reality shows something else…. I expected something completely different.
But let us hope,that Iran (with unconditional support of Russia and China and Hezbollah) will attack the US for real.
We can only hope.
IRAN 1 – 0 US
US own goal. Thuggish, barbarian-like mafia hit by US on major ISIS foe General Soleimani. United adversaries against US.
IRAN 2 – 0 US
Mega-bitch slap by Iran. Iran with the balls to attack – successfully – hyper-nuclear power US in a way that hasn’t been done since WWII (barring Israel ’67 attack on the USS Liberty), proving they have precision missiles able to evade US defenses. Early reports of casualties may still prove true.
IRAN 3 – 0 US
US own goal. Major failure of US defenses against missile attack, DOA AGAIN (9/2019 Saudi Arabia). Completely changes balance of power in ME. US bases, oil installations, Apartheid State now sitting ducks. Iran holds the big cards in ME, ie shut down Strait of Hormuz & collapse markets.
IRAN 3 – 1 US
Iran own goal. Iran missile defense failure/weakness, Ukraine plane shot down.
Points 2&3 are really the same point.
And I don’t think it’s so much as showing balls as a face saving move on the order of magnitude as the us strikes in Syria (but less). There are reports that Iran warned the US through some channels and those are more/less confirmed (the Saker trusts them to be true).
The US using thuggish and barbarian ways is hardly any news, though this is on a new level. That’s (at best) 1 for Iran and Shia in general as they are now consolidated and still 1 for the US as it simply did bluntly what it wanted.
So the only valid score for Iran is that again US air defense systems were shown as shit.
I will generously change the score to
Iran 2 (Shia consolidation & US A.A. systems fail)
US 3 (They the hit and two Iranian own goals (plane and funeral stampede killing 31))
If Iran didn’t screw up so badly on it’s own turf t would have been a clear win. If.
I also wondered why Iran had not shut down it’s airspace. Is it perhaps because it would have signalled to the US that an attack was imminent and they wanted to keep it as a surprise?
They told the US that they would attack, well in advance.
No, the attack was the ultimate NO surprise attack, a little like the US missile attack on Syria when the US practically warned the Syrian (through the Russians) were the missiles would fly or not.
Weird times, eh?
Not so weird for all the international defense industries.. without all this turmoil. the sheeple would question all the senseless defense spending
Yes, that would make sense, but Iran could have closed off its airspace immediately after launching the missiles, or even immediately after first impact. Nothing to hide at that point and the UIA flight didn’t take off until several hours after all the missiles had struck.
So I really don’t know why that precaution wasn’t taken. Until I get more info, my guess will be over site, confusion, or just a human foul up. Humans are not perfect. And when you have a lot of imperfect humans in a large bureaucracy those imperfections can add up. That’s true anywhere. Anyway, more will be learned and we can adjust our assessment then.
Iranian authorities are almost TOO willing to accept blame.
It could be the best thing to do, look Orange Jew, just deny’s causaulty’s he’s a blatant liar, on everything. A true fact never emerges from his orifice.
Right now Iran takes blame, case closed. NYT must move on, also no reason for an investigation now, let Iran do it on its own, on its own timeline.
If later the “REAL FACTS” come out, and we all discover that Iran does a mea-culpa and says “Guess what we didn’t do it, new facts have came out”
Now with this tacit admission of guilt they’re done, they don’t have to listen to months of USA BS on the subject, I think it was brilliant move on their part. It’s almost like Putin is advising them or Sun-Tzu himself.
Imagine it wouldn’t have been defensive fire by accident, but a technical defect of the machine. By what percentage would the value of the Boeing shares have fallen?
Apologies for copying and pasting this post from IRGC article, but this piece from you had not yet been posted.
There’s something about this incident that leaves me wanting. I just can’t shoehorn the following items together logically, taking them at face value.
1: The Washington Post had this:
— nor did Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization close the airspace over the country. At least three other aircraft were in flight near Tehran at the time of the downing, according to civil aviation monitors.
Then there’s this:
There were 10 departures from Tehran-IKA from midnight local time 8 Jan through the departure of PS752 at 06:12 LT. Prior to PS752, the last flight movement at IKA was the departure of QR8408 at 05:39 local time.
Now, to Moon of Alabama in a piece from yesterday. (b’s commentary)
“What I find inexplicable is that the crew of Tor M-1 air defense system did not really consider that the Tehran airport was operating and that civil traffic was likely. More than ten planes had already taken off before the Ukrainian flight took to the air. The accident happened shortly after 6:00 am local time. Pure speculation: I suspect that a crew change had happened at 6:00 am and that the overnight crew did not really brief the one taking over.”
Okay, now try to fit the pieces together. Apparently 3 other planes are flying in the area at the time. A plane had taken off from Teheran airport 30 minutes prior to the Ukrainian plane.
First off, those 3 other planes were not fired on by this or any other missile battery. Obviously Iranian airspace was not closed down.
Secondly, why did not this particular missile battery not fire at the plane that had taken off 30 minutes prior? Different crew, as ‘b’ speculates?
It being a different crew doesn’t really explain this away. Not being fully briefed as ‘b’ suggests? How long does it take to say that the airport is open and not to shoot the planes down?
For me, tragic accident doesn’t explain this. Gross incompetence doesn’t do it, either. I’m left with this crew (not the Iranian government or military) intended to shoot the plane down to give Iran a black eye.
Whether I’m right or wrong, the effect is the same. It’s a PR nightmare that will have far-reaching effects. Not only in world opinion, but how about the Axis’ planned unified effort to oust the hegemon from the region? Will some get cold feet now? If this was a case of a planted rat within the ranks, how far of a reach do these people have?
Iran’s statements notwithstanding (what else could it do?), and though I hope I’m wrong, I smell a rat.
It’s not about being “briefed”.
Since the Iranians operate the SA-12 (along with S-300 and their own S-300 variants) they have not only missiles, but an integrated multi-level air defense network. Such networks do use voice, of course, but they also have date fusion from MANY sources, including the civilian ones. It makes NO sense to me that 10 airliners were in the air (got a list, by the way, I would like to know the countries and airline companies) and it makes NO sense to me that a SA-12 unit clearly tasked with defending the national capital would not have not even good, but PERFECT situational awareness over the capital and for a few hundred kilometers around it.
I am afraid that we will find out that this was a monumental SNAFU by the IRGC and heads will have to roll, possibly literally. After all, this WAS a war situation thus to rules of wartime should apply, especially in an elite organization like the IRGC.
We will see I suppose.
Saker, FlightRadar states that 10 had taken off from midnight until the Ukrainian plane’s departure. Now, most of those could have been prior to the Iranian missile strike began.
The only remarkable thing is that a plane had taken off 30 minutes prior to the Ukrainian plane.
There were 10 departures from Tehran-IKA from midnight local time 8 Jan through the departure of PS752 at 06:12 LT. Prior to PS752, the last flight movement at IKA was the departure of QR8408 at 05:39 local time.
Why was it not fired at and the Ukrainian one was? It would seem that the same missile battery that did not shoot at that plane shot at the Ukrainian one. So, one gets a pass and one doesn’t? To me, that’s where SNAFU doesn’t quite fit.
Yeah that is just so F’ing strange. What was special about the 11th take off ? Maybe not the same runway ?
My guess is USAF jets flying towards Iranian airspace spoofed a fake launch of a cruise missile that was broadcasting a beacon with the spoofed ICAO ID of the PS752 flight. Cruise missiles do have the capability to appear as a Boeing using spoofed beacons. And because cruise missiles hug the ground after launch it is difficult to track them on radar, cruise missiles can also maneuver as to hide their intended destination (they do not fly in a straight line from A to B).
Cruise missiles can also spoof flight numbers, position, direction and speed through ADS-B beacons. Conspiracy theory: Did USAF jets spoof a cruise missile launch with spoofed ADS-B beacons appearing to be flight PS-752? If that is true then Iranians should have received duplicate ADS-B data, 1 from the real PS752 and the other from the fake cruise missile. That could explain why IRGC targeted specifically flight PS752 thinking it was the cruise missile and not other flights.
I agree with you Woogs
The US had Iraq war 1 and shock and awe in 2003. 70 days of bombing in Serbia. Libya , Syria ect ect ect. No airliners were shot down by accident.
The Serbs were shutting their air defense units off to hide themselves and doing this at night. For 70 days.
Its just impossible for this to happen. I agree with you.
What is illogical is that the Ukrainian plane was flying out of Iranian airspace not into whereby a missile would.
Maybe. As far as we know.
Remember the story of a Soviet radar commander who didn’t report an incoming thinking, turned out correctly, that it might be a false signal? Now, that was gutsy, it could have been nuclear.
Here, with no such risk, and civilian airport close by, the commander should have never pushed the button, even risking his own life.
The Moon of Alabama blogger has some nice comments about the airliner shootdown. I’d guess he has picked the brains of a military professional to put this piece together.
On a side note, the Iranian missiles were considerably better than anybody expected them to be. So guess what? All of a sudden the Iron Dome of the Apartheid state has had a miraculous upgrade. I’m certain the citizens of that little cesspool nation will sleep better knowing they’re still safe.
Oh my goodness! ANOTHER ‘comfort blanket’ article for the citizens of the Apartheid state.
“Israel hails ‘breakthrough’ towards laser air defence system”
You have to read past the headline to learn this is what the sofware industry calls “vapor-ware”. But the details are certainly fascinating. These heroes are going to use electricity instead of gunpowder to power the magical new super-lasers. Will wonders never cease!
About the only thing I can think of to top this is for them to announce they’re going to install an invisible force field which will make the murderous and thieving little state Totally Invulnerable. If they do, I expect the rubes there to buy it hook, line, and sinker.
If the “Iron Dome” proved to be rather inept, now we have the “Electric Iron Dome”
Wow! Those Israelis are really geniuses, no doubt :-)
Very few can best you when you wear your analyst’s hat Saker. Clear, impartial and informed writing. Thank you.
Here’s the answer to the mystery: “this shows a glaring weakness of the Iranian air defenses.”
I’ll explain: “a theoretically very redundant and highly survivable military network.” The key word being “theoretically”. Reality trumps theoretical.
The Iranians have excelled at homemade missiles. They demonstrated that with the precision hits of what are no more than guided SCUD missiles. Impressive.
They don’t get the same acclaim for much else. We know they can hit or take down electronically the top US drones. They can hit refineries with precision. They can hit ships with their missiles.
However, missile defenses and communication within integrated systems may not be first rate.
MOA has details worked out that explains a lot of what was and what went wrong.
He even explains why he thinks airliners were allowed to fly out of the airport only hours after the missile strikes into Iraq. (6 planes reportedly left before the ill-fated Ukie plane).
Fog of War. It should be considered a Law of Physics. It is ever present and accurately explains SNAFUs and FUBARs, as well as many “accidental” shoot-downs of airliners.
Rigid ideological systems tend to produce rigid vertical power institutions. However, many militaries have learned that a little flexibility goes a long way. When there is only one way to think, failures are more likely to plague that system.
Thank you Saker.
The whole issue of a civilian aircraft taking off in the middle of an offensive when US targets were warned has been niggling at me like a stone in my shoe since the news broke.
There’s been a lot of high octane speculation and precious little fact.
This post clears away a lot of the skuttlebug and lays the issue out in an orderly fashion
I appreciate it.
The MH17 crash has two parts, the incident itself and the precondition, in its case having its flight path changed by Kiev while in flight that sent it 200 KMs off the flight plan and into the war zone — target area.
The UIA Flight 752’s precondition is its take-off when all aircraft were grounded.
Answering the precondition points to the actual culprit. Opportunity has to be an accident to make it an accident. Perhaps the UIA pilot was an idiot, but if not how come it was the only flight at the time, didn’t receive the message, or was another one sent?
Iran’s targeting of the plane is an accident admitted, but there is more than who pulled the trigger involved. Is what I said right, or were other planes landing and taking off as Iran waited for a US strike? What was the communications problem between the missile battery and HQ — in high alert without confirmation of the target and expecting an attack their actions are possibly predictable (I have no idea what information they may have had on site).
I am sure by now you have seen the article link (from 2012) reposted by me on several sites. https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4196367,00.html
Lorraine Barlett, thanks for this critical information, the penny has dropped now that the Government in Russia resigned.
I really think that many country’s have out of control citizens, this fellow had stated he wished he were dead from his actions. I have no doubt that if he said he was going to neutralize himself in public as the solution to his own problem, that plenty of deranged folks would gladly show up for the event.
He probably hadn’t slept in a week, was in duress, had no order to not shoot, it was an admitted mistake. People make mistakes on the battle field, its not the end of the world nor even the end of a country, but it is an example of an out of control segment of the population.
So take heed when confronting these country’s and some of their out of control citizens before they storm your embassy and actually start a world war, by mistake naturally.
Maybe the explanation is simple incompetence and a bit of bad luck. Basic things may be overlooked, especially at a time when emotions are running high. Recall that lots of people were crushed to death and injured at the funeral of their hero, even though such a thing was clearly a risk and there had been several days in which to make preparations.
There has been attention to the skill in making and using the Iranian rockets, but local pride may prefer to ignore the probability that not every aspect of their organisations are of top quality.
Finding the people responsible and making them take responsibility may be laudable, and an honest start seems to have been made, but it is not feasible to quickly change social attitudes and individual behaviour across a whole society. Despite the acquisition of some high tech expertise to add to traditional courage, maybe
that is a fairly thin crust with much less depth than supporters of the Iranians like to believe.
Iran took the high road and STILL got absolutely trashed for it. They are still being accused of lying about it because it took 2 days for it to get through the bureaucracy. That was a mistake. Never admit anything.
This just shows once again, how good Russia plays these games. Putin didn’t go to the UN for Crimea and didn’t give an INCH on MH-17. And that’s what Iran should have done. They should have dragged it out and let the theories take over. They gained nothing for being honest
Honesty never pays when dealing with Anglo imperial scum.
Honesty is an ideal. You either believe in it or not. It has nothing to do with being “paid” or “gaining” anything.
Yes. Which puts the people who do believe in ideals at a crushing disadvantage.
Only if the number of dishonest people outweighs the number of honest one. If a sufficient number of people are honest and demand honesty from others, the dishonest would not have the critical mass to permit getting away with their dishonesty.
There is a bunch of nagging issues here.
1. What’s the deal with IFF? Did the SAM not interrogate the plane and get a civilian plane reply? This data fusion setup Saker has mentioned, was it working on that particular SAM system?
2. The plane was reported serviced in Kiyev before flying to Teheran. Could its transponders be tampered with? You know, hacked to reply with garbage or turned off even though reportedly on? Why did the SAM operator consider it a cruise missile?
3. Has it occurred to anyone that to confuse a plane with a cruise missile the SAM operator must’ve seen it heading towards where he was or the object he was protecting was? He may have pulled the trigger in fear of getting hit himself.
4. This is where reports about technical problems aboard the plane come in. Does anyone have a plot of the flight paths of other liners and the Ukrainian plane? Civilian ATC would not send it over a sensitive military installation, right?
5. Thor is a short-range defence system. Most likely in place to protect a critical object if all other systems let a missile or bomber through. Which is why it must had had orders to shoot anything threatening its critical object, no double-checks. Chances are the operator didn’t have a choice there.
6. Was the plane on fire or did it have a failing engine before getting hit by the missile? Why did it veer off course first?
I want to add to this, why was there video footage of this particular incident?
There seems to be a common confusion between what is called the “transponder” and what is called “IFF”.
An ordinary transponder is an apparatus that allows Air Traffic Control (ATC) to more clearly identify a cooperating aircraft. It is primarily a civil aviation function, although military traffic controllers use it too.
IFF is a military transponder system that is confidentially coded in such a way that the aircraft does not cooperate unless it is interrogated with a valid code. Civilian aircraft do not have IFF capability.
In hostile situations military aircraft would likely turn off their ordinary transponder, but might operate their IFF transponder, depending on the situation.
It’s not clear what capability the Tor system has with regard to interrogating aircraft. If someone out there knows, then please inform.
thank you for your balanced article. I agree with your key question: Why was any civilian air traffic allowed at all?
From what I understand, there were political reasons for this, not military ones.
‘PIC’, I take it, means ‘person in charge’? English is my second language and I had to google this one, 182 possible meanings: https://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/PIC
In this context PIC = Pilot In Command.
Pilot in command.
Why was the airspace not closed?
Dunno – but the same question pertains to MH17.
Perhaps the insurers might like to answer…
Personally, the only individual (or individuals) that I would blame on the Iranian side was whoever decided not to ground all civilian air traffic during a major and symbolically important military operation. That was a very poor decision that resulted in a tragedy. But the most important point that we should make is that none of this would have happened in the first place had it not been for Washington’s endless aggression in the Middle East and its (failed) drive for global domination. So, taking that into account, it really was Uncle Sam’s fault.
One for the journalist’s cliche, … perhaps
There is one important ‘fact’ in this murderous case under investigation, Dr. Watson… ‘Silence’ (absence of noise) from certain quarters.
“Holmes concluded if the dog did not bark, then the dog must have known the perpetrator and this led him to track down the guilty party.”
[” ‘The dog that didn’t bark’ is an expression from a Sherlock Holmes mystery. It was an important clue that led to identifying the criminal. It seems that the killer entered and left the estate grounds one night but without the guard dog barking an alarm at the intruder’s presence as expected.” ]
Same anon here, I meant to add this ‘silence’ from the Israelis was the missing part of the puzzle (why the muzzle?) not yet deeply explored — and I’m not talking about the usual noise etc.
Also in response to the ‘laser beam’ narrative mention above here. Why now?
And, in any case, it simply reminds me of the 1955 science-fiction story “Earthlight” and great phallic projections into the Dark Void etc. Surely these z-class citizens (and script writers) infesting Occupied Palestine can come up with something better than that … but maybe that is where the target ‘deplorable’ audience’s mentation is at?
Can anyone explain to me what the riots in Iran are about? Western press claims the crowd are accusing the Leader of “lying” – without saying about what, and calling for his resignation. They claim thousands of people are rioting. I can’t find a thing about it in any reliable non-msm news outlet.
The head of Iranian civil air organisation said it was scientifically impossible for a rocket ro hit the plane….plus ambassadors were briefed to deny Iran could have fired the mussile claim8ng ot was a technical fault with the plane causing a fault. Not good strategy ….the first person now looks to be a total idiot….and a big disconnect between civil and military air responsiblities is now proven.
Interestingly enough as USA said very quickly could e unintentional says to me they had their own intelligence on the ground either near the airport or in flight control and or in the IRGC….if it had been Israeli intelligence( who probably are extant in all the above)…then would have been a lot more verbosity from them of Iran the untetnational terrorist better counter attack now and finish them off this is too good an opportunity to miss……eg IDF has some practice at Damascus airport last few years on various reasons-excuses?
USA claimed satellite evidence I think I saw so clearly were prepared given the notice they had……but if course none came forward re MH17..
Hi Saker, good and measured analysis over all.
» The question is WHO and WHY took the decision to take off when the situation was self-evidently fantastically dangerous. «
It was business as usual. Everyone took off, going Northwest, East and South. No danger there. Take a look at the List of departing flights from Tehran 8 January:
» Could a US drone have shot the airliner? « – No. A US drone would have been detected.
» Could the US have conducted a cyber-attack? « – Certainly. Crypted radio links to the Azi-made Boeing via the Azi/Anglo controlled satellite links are opaque unless you have all the technical details – which you don’t.
» what would be the US motive? I don’t see one. « – Seriously? Inflict a defeat upon an opponent? Remember practically all of the vitims are ethnic Iranians. Remember Russian Metrojet Halloween 2015 where the victims were Russians?
» Was the putative cyberattack directed at, hmmmmm what exactly?! The computers are radars of the civilian ATC? The IRGC air defense network? The specific SA-12 battery? Maybe the Ukrainian airliner? Maybe at all of these at the same time? «
The simplest thing does the job. The US has full control over the Boeing airliner it manufactures. Iran has zero control over the airliner.
» in this case, there is ZERO evidence. Yes, tons of speculation, but speculation does not amount to evidence, not even indirect evidence. «
This is also very true.
On the other hand, what is the evidence behind the Iranian “we screwed up” story? So we have an integrated air defense, and then here is this oddball older standalone system with flaky radio comm link and ten seconds trigger time and so where can we install that one? Right, there is this missile site which exploded a couple years ago, let’s put it there, never mind that it’s right in the main take-off alley of our international airport, we trust our operators and flaky radio comm and ten seconds trigger time should be ample, the operator can use eyesight and common sense after all.
» I don’t see even a shred of any real evidence supporting this hypothesis. «
I don’t either, but I find the Iranian narrative hard to believe, given all the other airplanes that took off safely, the profusion of mea culpa, the oddity of details, this is unheard of.
The Soviet Union also admitted to having downed KAL 007 and yet they didn’t do it, it *must* have been shot down by Japanese or Azi American military, based on where the debris was found, there is good evidence because of sea currents, and of course it was unintentional, see Michel Brun: Incident at Sakhalin, but he can’t say why the Soviet Union took the blame, there must have been some kind of deal that has remained a state secret.
“The US has full control over the Boeing airliner it manufactures. Iran has zero control over the airliner.”
This is the elephant in the room, which no-one else seems to have noticed.
The means for remote control by government / spook agencies has SPECIFICALLY been designed into Boeing aircraft. This is not a secret – it’s acknowledged by Boeing itself!
Why hasn’t anyone else cottoned onto this???
Great analysis as always Mr Saker.
I’m almost certain that the IRCG shot the plane down unintentionally in anticipation of a US/Coalition attack.
What confuses me is why all civilian air traffic was allowed to continue and why the AAA batteries would use a TOR AA system missiles as it would surely be a waste of resources???
Also read somewhere that Wikileaks had reported that Russia had provided Israel with IRCG’s TOR AA systems?
It still wouldn’t explain the quick actions of the TOR operators who mostly likely acted independently in not wishing to take risks and pulling the trigger so to speak – only realising later what had truly happened.
Also saw similar articles stating poor communications resulted in similar response when the US Drone was intercepted close to Iranian airspace so clearly issues with IRCG’s approaches but then again proof how cappable they’re AAA systems are at intercepting any attackers.
A lot of misinformation from twitter and the usual suspects (Bellingcat, etc) making for a tense situation and mistrust from those people seeking the truth.
I strongly believe President Trump and his advisors hold key responsibility for escalating matters as seen by his administrations weak attempts at justifying the assassination and needlessly escalating hostilities. Sadly the Iranians have quickly lost any sympathies gained demonstrating the blatant criminality of the West and I see the current developments escalating as protests develop and sanctions begin to rampen up.
Our prays and thoughts with the victims, families and the poor souls ultimately responsible for accidently shooting down the Ukrainian airliner.
Here’s one article quoting Wikileaks from 2012 regarding AA systems:
Very confusing that the Iranians denied any involvement but then claimed responsibility?!
Here’s hoping the ‘truth’is uncovered and the region moves on from this tragic event as its obvious the West will take advantage of citizen unrest and look to stir up trouble with ‘protest’ and civil disobidiance in both Iran and Iraq.
Looking forward to Sakers analysis as things begin to heat up!
It’s all very confusing. You have the Trumpster and/or Pompeo (at Israel’s request?) wacking Soleimaini, the latter on a diplomatic mission and who had just got off a domestic flight, then Iran missiles targeting very precisely the US base and Iran fully expecting reprisals to that so that their ground to air missile batteries, a short distance from the airport, were on hair trigger alert and probably with permission to fire without ‘head office’ confirmation. Then you have all manner of civilian flights from major airlines, e.g. Lufthansa, taking off during all this as if everything was normal. Bizarre.
PPrune has some airline pilot insights into flying into and out of Tehran and maps. It’s a blog so there is a lot of junk to sift through (and I suspect some amount of agency prooganda trolling) but I see on Pprune a track that shows a right turn not seen on previous maps. It could be as simple as a communication lapse since PS752 was an hour late taking off. I also understand ADSB/GPS loss is not unusual around Tehran so perhaps transponder info was lost?
TOR system is quite old technology (1975 design) and access freely available to the USA. So, ignoring Occam’s Razor for a moment, is it possible that the system could be hacked/spoofed by today’s tech? TOR has been continually upgraded but the mobile unit in question was apparently parked recently and not connected to the Iranian networked radar system. So, a standalone unit on hair-trigger alert expecting retaliation, its radar lighting itself up for inbound HARM/cruise missiles and with very poor communication, if what I read is to be believed. What could go wrong?
From a conspiracy theory end I understand also there were F-35s floating about and EW is good at spoofing. Cruise missiles routinely spoof themselves as airline traffic. Could the F-35s have made the 737 look like an attacking missile?
wasn’t this that happened to the Russian recognisance plane in Syria? isahell was involved, wasn’t it? it may be their filthy trade mark…
Ukrainian Nazi Turchynov Demanded That Russia Be Held Accountable for the Ukrainian Boeing Downed in Iran.
No surprise coming from this idiot.
1. Why was the airport open at this very critical time? What would be a reasonable period for closure? 24 hours, 48 hours, a year?
2. Was the planes identification transponder on, if not why not?
3. If it was on, why didn’t the air defense system not un-target the plane?
4. Why did the SAM officer say he had “only 10 seconds to respond”? Can’t they pass the info on to other well-placed defenses automatically?
We need to wait for answers. But it seems like the Iranian air defense system is a bit weak when the alert level is high.
4: Possibly because he saw it as the timelapse in which the “missile” would hit him. That is, he had 10 seconds+whichever time needed to fire amd destroy it. Or it’s just reglamented reaction time. Remember Thor is short-range and cannot scan as far away.
Also, if he was afraid of HARM (anti-radar missile homing on radar beam), he might’d thought he was saving himself or his defended object.
Iran’s Accidental Downing of a Ukrainian Plane Is Already Being Used to Smear MH-17 Skeptics
“In the hours following the ballistic missile strikes, reports came in that a Boeing 737 international passenger flight scheduled from Tehran to Kiev, Ukraine had crashed shortly after takeoff from Imam Khomeini International Airport, killing all 176 passengers and flight crew on board. Initial video of the crash of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 (PS752) showed that the aircraft was already in flames while descending to the ground, leading to speculation it was shot down amid the heightened political crisis between Iran and Washington. In the days following, a second obscure video surfaced which only increased this suspicion. Meanwhile, Western governments quickly concluded that an anti-aircraft surface-to-air missile brought PS752 down and were eager to point the finger at Iran before any formal investigation. Many people, including this author, were admittedly skeptical as to how a plane taking off from Tehran could have been mistaken five hours after the strikes in Iraq.”
Max Parry writes an excellent analysis here without surreptitiously framing Iran in a negative light.
US struck Iranian military computers this week.
Hmmm…. well, thank you for the information and analysis on this topic.
The MSM is particularly irritating and smug on this one, I have to be even more careful in avoiding it in every manner possible.
So, it is nice to get a whiff of fresh air here at the sanctuary.
This entire sub-plot, of the Ukrainian?!-thing is bizarre.
Obviously, this is prime-facia a horrific tragedy.
But there are so many elements that don’t pass the smell-test, let alone the gut-check.
Right out of the gate, a Ukrainian jet liner… but… not with many Ukrainians, but enabling a larger-than-would-be-warranted stage for Ukrainian political leaders.
And in other places, where one would expect louder than the usual very loud demonization of …virtually anything Iranian?!… strangely subdued, non, mes amis?!
“Si” may be the correct response, non?
The prime faciaacceptance of the responsibility, in the context of the complexity of the integrated defense system… is, well… extremely difficult to fully accept, at face value.
But the failure to close the airspace… … there is no doubt about this, WTF!?
It is literally an impossible failure of execution of what must be policy.
How complex would it be to have somehow prevented this from happening?!
Certainly, no one person could have caused this to happen.
Could it even have possibly happened by mistake?
Or did there have to be some kind of negative energy input into the equation/system?!
What will the ruthlessness of the investigation be like?
On the west coast of North America, as I write, the temperature is plunging to historic record lows.
I noticed the uptick in the …devotion to the POTUS, mostly by his adorable, deplorables… but not just them.
Bottom line, poopoo happens. Murphy’s Law states whatever can go wrong will go wrong doing the maximum amount of irreparable damage in the most inaccessible place and at the worst time imaginable. As a corollary, Mrs. Murphy considers Mr. Murphy an optimist.
This event is proof of that law, and the loss of so many lives gives a quantum leap to the tragedy. However. In my opinion, sitting in my warm office in a very safe place, I think the primary act that started this tragedy was the failure to close the airspace and aerodrome during a high stress and extremely dangerous moment in time. Everything else that happened is irrefutably related to this failure.
Never The Last One, paper back edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056 A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
An Incident On Simonka paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1696160715 NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
You nailed it. The Regime was incompetent. Planes were flying out of the airport during a “war likely” time period. That is brain-dead operational management. And in all the comments from the IRGC there is no word of a protocol that was violated by airport authorities, airlines or anyone responsible for managing the airspace over and around Tehran.
In other words, they had no hard and fast rules of safety and precaution.
They simply are stupid. And Stupidity Rules. Once Stupidity is in the driver’s seat, expect disaster.
In one fell swoop they went from being ‘cocks o’ the walk’ to morons. It’s as simple as that.
sigh, Ausländer, aptly put. or they were flying high but ended up as stumble-bum. And Netanyahu got his stoat-gloat after all.
The Saker’s Iranian SNAFU argument seems pretty cogent to me, though there are still dark areas which invite much speculation. This is evidenced by the many comments, but so is the notion of Iranian negligence in not enforcing a “no-fly zone”.
I wonder if people have given much thought to what a “no fly-zone” is? As a phrase, it is extremely euphemistic .
Of recent ( post war on Sebia, perhaps) American military origin, it is not so much about NOT overflying a designated country as about blasting to smithereens anything that flies over the country that you are occupying. It really only works that way because if a “no fly-zone” is operating defensively, it is merely war. So what the Iranians really should have demanded, if indeed they were not officially at war is the cessation of all domestic flights.That’s a complicated call, I would guess, and easily said in retrospect.
The Iranians demonstrated their capabilities very creditably. But possibly lines of communication did not work so well in the understandably hyperbolic and fraught situation on the ground.
All round, a tragedy.
No-fly-zone isn’t just that. Try to think along the lines of what happens at airports when there is a storm.
In my opinion, the hypothesis of a plane full of spies that was shot down deliberately does not hold water. As it was a regular flight, it is hardly possible that most passengers were spies – let alone all including the crew. Instead of murdering indiscriminately all people on board, Iran’s police could simply have arrested only the suspects at the airport.
Major screw-ups are usually caused by an entire chain of events.
For instance, if a bird strike would have taken out the right engine, the aircraft could have veered off to the right and started descending instead of continuing its ascent. With such a flight pattern, without communication and maybe under radar jamming, I could understand the decision of the battery commander to suspect an incoming cruise missile and fire upon the aircraft. This of course would have killed any chance of the pilots to return to the airport for an emergency landing.
However, this scenario is pure speculation and rather unlikely. It just shows why a complete investigation into the causes and events of the tragedy is required despite Iran’s statement to take full responsibility for the downing.
Thank you for the explanations. The confusion and unanswered questions you pose about this incident is perhaps partly due to an important element missing from the analyses most are presenting in the articles and in the comments. No institution, be it military or civilian, is separate from cultural norms of the society in which that institution exists and operates. If you try to analyze and evaluate the situation through a Western lens and based on usual protocols in the West, then things would get rather confusing. But if you apply a bit of what is an Iranian cultural norm, then things begin to look differently.
You ask “why did they not stop all civilian flights?” Well, why should they and for how long? 12 hours? 24 hours? One week? On month? Does the US warn ahead so that they know exactly for how long they should bring life to a standstill so that they could have been fairly certain that things are safe?
Are people suggesting that this threat was imminent and it was a particularly critical time, so things should have been different? Well, what has changed for us? Have we been in less danger any other time to consider this more dangerous?! Didn’t they just assassinate some of our top people just a couple of weeks ago? Did they not set fire on our businesses and kill our regular people whose fault was just driving from work to their homes a couple of months ago? Did they not kill our university professors and researchers just a couple of years ago?
Iranians know they live in a warzone, and come and go to and from a warzone. To live in a state of constant fear and halt one’s activities because of that fear is the most wretched and miserable life one could live. Why should we live a wretched and fearful life?! We refuse.
The airlines flew out as usual. People (airport personnel, pilots, passengers, and more) knew about what was going on and went ahead and got on board. Why? For the Iranian passengers, they are strongly likely to have said, “Na baba, chizi nemisheh. Agar ham shod, Khoda bozorgeh.” [Trans.: “Don’t worry, nothing happens. Even if it did, God is Great.”] If one family member (usually a mother or grandmother) among those who had gone to see them off had said something like, “Be delam bad oomadah. Bia o chand rooz be ta’akhir bendaz ta oza’ aroom besheh.” [Trans.: I have a bad feeling about this. Postpone your flight for a few days till things cool down.] The response would have more likely been, “We all die somehow and some day. Whatever is God’s plan for us.” The final decision would not have been any different. They would have gotten on board.
For the non-Iranians, it is more likely that they would have gotten on board because they would think that if majority got on board, it must be okay (the influence of “crowd”). Well, they should have been more informed about their “crowd”. It appears, they were not.
Iran’s civilian and military institutions are run by people raised within a cultural norm that says life must go on and fear cannot become a factor. Now, if the West wants to use this incident as a diversion tactic to cover up the real casualties of the attack on Ayn Al-Asad base, that’s their business. Soon enough, solid information will come out.
Thank you! I’m getting tired of people around me expressing anger at the Iranians for taking down a plane by what was clearly and accident. It’s legitimate to be angry about the innocent people being killed by mistake, but quite another to condemn the Iranians as if they did it on purpose while they have expressed deep regret and admitted their mistake.
I might not feel confortable with the regime of the Islamic Republic, but I still don’t see how destroying a plane by accident is reason enough for the whole government to resign. If some people in Iran want to make use of the opportunity to protest against their government, then they can do what they want in my opinion as long as they don’t provoke unnecessary violence. But when I see people outside Iran (particularly in the U.S. government) literally supporting regime change over this accidental tradegy… that really makes me mad.
I know I should’t be surprised because the anti-Iraninians in Washington and Tel Aviv will do everything to justify regime change in Iran no matter what Iran does, but Trump now declaring that “the world is watching” Iran makes me fear Iran is on the brink of becoming the new Venezuela or, worse, the new Syria.
Meanwhile, while Trump claims “the world is watching” Iran, I just want to remind people that the world was also watching the police systematically blinding protesters in Chile and before that the Israelis were maiming or killing unarmed Palestinian protesters… and no one in the Trump regime wanted regime change in those two places.
Reading an excellent book where Saker is cited as scholarly source. It supplies a non-Euro triumphalist account of warfare https://books.google.com.au/books/about/War.html?id=6NcgAQAAIAAJ&source=kp_book_description&redir_esc=y
Thank you one more nice analysis Dear Saker. Indeed, I found the Iranian admission quite honorable, but cant buy their narrative. I also find the reaction of the 5th-columnists too quick …
It is all fishy…
Let me put a ‘Conspiracy theory’ which goes against all ideas about the recent happening.
Iran is struggling internally between Hardliners-Moderates fight. So far, Hardliners are in power. Qassem Soleimani was the only one who had very standing among Iran’s population and probably got a 76% voting in a nation-wide survey. Additionally he was strongly against any treaty with US.
Now, suppose the top leadership of Iran is wary about Soleimani and may also want to negotiate with US, then it had to remove Soleimani. The best scenario was US would remove him. The rest of the things like missile strike etc. are only for internal consumption. The destruction of the plane is also another misdirection which will force some call for peace from Iran’s population. That will allow Iran’s to leadership from not taking any further punitive action. It will also allow regular contact with US etc. over a period without raising any doubts on anyone’s mind.
Iran has already said there are 13 levels or stages or options for them should more happen from USA…I do not think they are bluffing. I think most Iranians are too smart to believe this is all a pretence…..if they did then whole government might be vulnerable plus IRGC and that would be the last thing Iran would want surely.
I’m not sure this is at all appropriate to even discuss – not for reasons of political correctness, but for lack of credible viable verifiable information. Iran seems to have just come clean because they can not win, they will be condemned whatever they do. Had they just kept quiet & took the “we are investigating, awaiting an outcome” line, as some suggest, the west would have been all over them with demands. It would have been Serbia 1914, let our investigators in or we will accuse you & you best watch for the consequences. So Iran, in my view, took the painful but honest approach of admitting it. So what can we really say?
I initially, in all honesty, thought it was deliberate – you know, spies on board, kill a load of them in one go to send a message. I am not sure about that now & to be honest, until we know more, if we ever do, I am just refraining from judgement one way or another. But if it was deliberate, then it was a pretty ruthless way of sending a message that they are prepared to play very very dirty. As to who were on board, their nationality tells us nothing, loads of ex-pats work as spies, there a plenty of Iranian emigres & 2nd generationers who advocate the overthrow of the government. There are also people who are manipulated. That is not a justification for killing anyone, I am purely speculating on the question if it was deliberate, why? But I think at this point that is not a decent question to ask, I am telling myself I shouldn’t be discussing it & find myself discussing it anyway. If it was deliberate, it was a message. Why not arrest them? Well, that is not the message being sent. IF. Like I say, I am not saying I think that is what happened. As to incompetence or a systems failure, that is more than possible. Example – I have worked in the UK criminal justice system for years, years & years, & the sheer number of f— ups I could not even begin to tell you. Prisoners being released who should not have been, others being lost in the system who should have been released years ago. I went to one high security prison once on an official visit, with my ID, the lot, but I guess I was dressed a bit casual, the officers took me to the wing & left me there. I swear to God. I was left on the wing because they forgot I was an official visitor & thought I was a bloody inmate. I was told I look a bit thuggish. Can you believe it? And that is fairly trivial, I could go on for days, the UK CJS is supposed to be among the most professional in the world. I can say from fist hand experience that this is total bull. Don’t get me started on the police, that is just an epic. So, Iran may have made a mistake & probably did, it seems unlikely, I know, I just could not believe they would over look something like shutting down the airspace – I mean, you would think that was a top priority thing to do – but, until I see some hard evidence, I am suspending judgement & just accept on face value what the Iranian government is advancing as its explanation. Because I am in no position to know.
The cruise missile theory
And yet – not regarding anything else – there is a motive. A perfectly plausible motive. It is to taint a government and a nation united in mourning of an extraordinarily capable, good and honest man. To separate nation from its government, to hinder strong and righteous bond forming between them.
As such, it is almost brilliant. Evil to the core, without doubt, but brilliant.
Sadly, I agree… I mentioned above the case of the Syrian missile that hit the Russian recognisance plane in the sea, as it intended to target a fighetr jet that hid behind it… Filthy, yes…
Jim Stone has reported on a possible motive for the shootdown:
“Mexican media announced that the downed Iranian airliner had Iran’s most important nuclear physicists aboard.”
JS did not cite a Mexican media source, but – as he lives in Mexico – he is likely citing a mainstream source. If this news is true, that would be a definite zebra…
(JS’ site is laid-out as one long column. You have to scroll-down to eventually get to an item.)
I seem to have mis-coded the URL. Once more: Jim Stone
Why in earth would Iran let its most important nuclear scientists leave the country when Iran knows mode sanctions are coming …JCPOA problems plus centrifuges in overdrive…illogical .
Jim Stone is worse than CNN
I sometimes read Jim Stone’s theories but that doesn’t mean I buy them. I much prefer the measured, logic of the Saker. I did my best to investigate one of those six so-called “important nuclear physicists aboard” PS752.
NAME: Mahdi Tajik
There is a man called Mahdi Tajik (born 1981) who is an expert nuclear physicist with a MA in North American Studies from Tehran University Law School but he’s also an activist and former Iranian political prisoner.
The Mahdi Tajik who was a passenger on Flight PS752 (according to the manifest) was born in 1999 (only 20 years old) so I’d say this eliminates one of the six. I don’t know about the other five.
Jim Stone has a further update on the shootdown:
“Final summary of the Iran shoot down of Ukranian jet. This report has changed a lot as new info has come in. The info is complete enough so it likely won’t change again. Here is what happened:
Two minutes after take off, the transponder, communications, and lights on the aircraft were shut off, obviously via remote. It flew in this hacked configuration for approximately 4 minutes and 30 seconds before, in error, Iranian ground forces mistook it for a cruise missile and shot it down, with Iran’s top nuclear physicists aboard. The plane was sent out during a no fly order to get the most important people (and their families) out of Iran before a war broke out, which Iran was expecting.
The only question in this story now is who interfered with communications between the airport, the military, and the pilots, who went dark for a considerable length of time before the missiles were launched. Approximately 1 minute after the first missile was launched, a second one was launched though the first one probably would have downed the plane despite it not being on fire. Eight minutes after take off, it crashed.
My guess is Israel is the one that hacked the plane and shut the transponder, lights and radios off to force it to fly completely dark, the way a cruise missile would. They are the only ones celebrating.”
Yeah….Iran really really sending its top nuclear scientists for safety via CIA controlled Kiev at a time of increased sanctions …..by plane as well ! at a time of missiles awaiting God knows what response possible from USA and do not forget Israel which is rather keen on neutralising Iran nuclear program and anyone who works for it.
Let us, for a moment, forget all the conventional wisdom and float an alternate theory or ‘Conspiracy Theory’, if you may call it that way.
Let’s assume that Iran is close to the tripping point due to the relentless effort of US & its’ allies. The economy is bankrupt, living conditions going down the spiral and the fights between Moderates and Hardliners are very becoming too close for comfort, especially to Rouhani. And he wants a way out by ‘normalizing’ the relation between US & Iran, without getting toppled by his opposition.
Now there are few obstacles to that. Most Iranians may not like that & at least there will be some division among the populace. The second problem or thorn would have been Qassem Soleimani. He never trusted US and was always against any pact with them. Also after fighting against US-proxies and losing his men for so many years, he would have been against it. Additionally, he was the darling of masses and elite Republican guards. He did get a rating of 76% in some virtual voting.
So, Rouhani asks US to take Soleimani out. By this act of killing by US, Rouhani gets the unified support of Iranians. Then he tells US that there will be missile attack so that nobody gets hurt. In the process, Rouhani gets the full and active support of Iran population. But the next step was much more critical. Rouhani needed to get out of that spiral of action without diluting his position. So a plane is down with all passengers and US somehow knew that it may have been taken down by Iran ‘by mistake’, just like they did in 1988.
Now the population of Iran is apologetic and do not want to talk of further strikes. Rouhani also gets a window to talk to US, Canada, UK etc. for a prolonged period without raising any suspicion form Iran population or any of its friend , especially Russia. This charade goes on and in the process, the ties with US gets ‘normalized’ without costing him his throne.
Now, everyone is happy except those who supported Iran from outside. And BTW, the new boss of Quds force is a non-Iranian who would not bother about what is going inside Iran.
Tag: General Esmaeil Qa’ani
Brigadier General Esmaeil Qa’ani is the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). A veteran commander of the Iran-Iraq war, Qa’ani was appointed as the chief of the Quds Force on December 3, 2020 following the assassination of former commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani.
Links for your assertion he’s not Iranian please?
What i Know is that flying airspaces are well divided between public and military, am I wrong ?
Si why would the PIC made a uturn using a prohibited airspace ?
Maybe what i’m saying is irrelevant du during the fog of war. Or maybe there is no such prohibited airspace
For the people saying that civilian traffic should have been closed, how would this work in practice?
1) When do you close it? (Enemy plane 100 miles away? Missile inbound in the general direction? Strange blip on radar? Trump tweets?)
2) For how long? A few hours, days?
3) Do you close all the airports in the country/region?
4) What do you do if the enemy just provokes you into shutting down the airport (constant fake attacks)?
5) Where do you send the planes that are in the air (if it happens a few times a day)?
6) What about a cruise missiles, the one that the SAM operator most likely thought it saw? If they are flying really low no advance warning would be issued, so the airport would be impossible to be closed on time. The short range AA will only have a few minutes at best to detect it, track it and shoot it down, and that’s it.
The reality of the modern war is that civilian traffic must remain open as long as possible, unless you want to sabotage your own economy, then the enemy just has to wait.
Look at this link to NY Times.
The point of transponder cut off and the crash site are shown. And there is a land distance reference line.
If the transponder loss point is the point of the plane being hit is it possible for a plane in flames to fly 8 or so miles and 90 degrees off-course to the crash site? Or after the transponder stopped for whatever reason it turned ~90 degrees right and left the civilian flight corridor? Thus appearing as a target on the AD radar.
I think the important question is not: Why Iranian airspace was not closed, but who gave the order to leave it open?
We don’t need to look any further for motive for the zebra option (cyber attack) than what we are witnessing with the protests in Tehran railing against the government for the aìrcraft tragedy, no matter if they are instigated by anti-Iran forces or U.S.-supported MEK. Just the fact that they were given a huge cause for outrage with which to rally Iranians of all stripes against the government only days after millions took to the streets in solidarity to mourn Soleimani is the most desired ambition of Zionist U.S. at this time.
Only a tragedy of such magnitude could UNDO the damage done with the murder of a beloved hero Soleimani to the AngloZionists’ advancing plan for takeover of Iran. Therein lies, motive.
A Russian military site Avia.pro has addressed the issue of “human error” relating to the crash of Ukraine’s Boeing 737 [departing from Tehran] on January 8, minutes after takeoff, which resulted in the death of 179 passengers and members of the crew.
Relying on military experts, the report intimates that the incident bears a canny (point by point) resemblance to the destruction of a Russian IL-20 in Latakia, Syria in September 2018.
Israeli fighters, followed by Syrian missiles, used the Russian plane as a shield, even if it meant its destruction and the death of 15 passengers.
The Russian military website refers to an independent investigation that concluded the US is “at least partial US responsibility” in the January 8 tragedy:
“According to experts, the US military had deliberately changed the information on the Ukrainian Boeing 737 flight, making it a real target for the Iranian air defense systems.”
According to data from Pentagon-related sources, several U.S. military planes were observed in the sky in the vicinity of Iran’s airspace, just at the time of the Boeing’s flight departure.
Anomalies were observed on Iran’s radar system, probably due to a cyber attack.
The civilian plane was therefore confused with a fighter plane heading directly for a military target.
“Since the pilot made a U-turn, it is very likely that the US cyber attack had also focused on the navigation system of the Ukrainian Boeing. This is not the first time that Americans have done this type of action, ” said Avia.pro.
In addition, a member of the Security and Defense Committee of the Russian Duma accused the provocative US measures against Iran of having been the cause of the Ukrainian plane crash.
Original article Corriere PL (Italian) Translation by Global Research
This is a plausible explanation. Thanks.
Accidents happen, SNAFUs, FUBARs, whatever you want to call them…
However, the fact that the airspace was open to normal civilian airline flights in such a heightened state of alert within hours after launching missiles at US bases (if this was actually the case) shows a great degree of incompetence and / or negligence from somewhere high in the chain of command responsible for this decision.
And this is always possible. It doesn’t have to be something mysterious.
Some points I find puzzling
1. Was this the ONLY civilian plane to take off from Tehran that night?
2 If so, why was it an exception?
3 If not, why was it targeted when others were not?
4 It had only been 3 minutes in the air and was still ascending to altitude, presumably along the approved departure route that all jets leaving that airport would be required to take (there’s a fairly strict system of pathways for planes approaching and leaving an airport). Its proximity to the airport, pathway and angle of ascent surely made its identity as a commercial plane pretty obvious, or at least probable, even if it was, inexplicably, the only one taking off. If it was one of several such targets moving along the same approved air path then the failure to identify seems even stranger
8 other civilian departures that same night:
Over on YouTube user Jiao Xianjun has uploaded a video showing how he was able to transmit an ADS-B signal from his HackRF One and receive it using an RTL-SDR with dump1090. He transmits a low power signal which shows a fake plane flying over the Senkaku islands.
That would only deceive Teheran ATC radio. Not an active radar system such as those that are employed. ADS-B is civillian complementary system.
Why would cruise missiles spoof ADS-B if it wasn’t meant to confuse air defenses? It is a fact cruise missiles do that. Even military aircraft use ADS-B: https://www.rtl-sdr.com/monitoring-military-aircraft-rtl-sdr/
Hello , since the analogy is horses and zebras I would like to add dogs . I have read and thought of arguments about fog of war , jamming and electronic warfare . Maybe there is other evidence in the evidence . NY Times published a video showing the events that happened . In my opinion the main star of that is a dog in background. Why because his reactions are genuine . As soon as the explosion happens the dog starts barking . Here is my question . If this is the first launch that obviously startled the dog why is there a person calmly pointing a camera in the sky at the right direction . If your outside smoking checking your FB you wouldn’t be ready for the first one , maybe a second one . Still you wouldn’t be a bit surprised , wouldn’t you ? Not having a complete video maybe my assumption is wrong so seeing the entire video can explain that .
I suggest you Google translate this article: http://alles-schallundrauch.blogspot.com/2020/01/warum-ubernimmt-der-iran-die-schuld-am.html
By far the most plausible explanation so far. The writer holds a twin engine pilot license and is a former Swiss citizen now ‘political refugee’ living in the Russian federation.
I have read the story and it appears rather plausible. If the underlying facts brought forward in the article are correctly researched then it would in fact seem that the Iranian government has very strangely assumed culpability for a deed not perpetrated.
Based on the facts presented, it seems nearly impossible that the aircraft was downed by the Iranian military.
Apparently something so outrageous was either threatened or promised that Iran agreed to falsely confess.
The author thinks it is a “plot” to save Boeing, as it seems that once again a technical failure (as initially claimed) was at the bottom of the crash..
I highly recommend the article – would be good if it could be translated into English.
I hope the Google translation works out alright for non-teutonic readers.
That article is wrong with regards to the unexploded warhead, it is not the warhead in the picture, it is the guidance system. Just like in http://www.tpub.com/aviord321/12309_files/image202.jpg
This is by far the best analysis I have read. I tried to drag it through translation machines, but both Google and Yandex failed. Maybe I did something wrong? Can the mod team help us out here, it’s really worth it.
Now, I want to emphasize that I have done military service, but I’m not a military man and not a military expert for certain. However, I ask questions. If I have assessed it correctly, the plane was burning (a motor, most probably), it flew more than a minute through thereafter with contact to the traffic tower, and crashed as one piece on the crash site. It gave a large explosion because it was fully fueled.
Where in this events does a surface to air missile attack fit in? A StA missile doesn’t hit its target, it destroys its target by exploding close to it and tear it apart by the shock wave. Things don’t add up.
The chain of events leading to the sudden humble taking responsibility of the IRGC still smells of a ‘story’ to protect responsibility of Boeing (‘if it’s a Boeing, I’m not going’), a multibillion defense contractor in big trouble, and Iran negotiated something out of it.
Highly speculative I agree, but I invite anybody to explain to me where the missile story fits in.
Not that it will bring back any of the deceased, that’s already sad enough.
Maybe the dust has to settle down. I’m awaiting the story of Pepe, so great that he chimed in.
To translate the article….
Copy the address to the clipboard.
Open Google and paste the address into the Google search bar.
First entry shown is the article – select “Translate this page.”
From The Mod.
To add to the conspiracy theory…
Anyone saw that the alleged ring on the corpse is not the same as the one on official pic of Soleimani… ?
A simple zooming make it unmistakable…
It is not the same. See it by yourself…
Just like the Bin Laden death Soleimani death is more than suspicious.
All this story is staged.
Just like the Trump missile strike on empty depot in Syria after false flag chemical gas.
Or the US drone taken down over the PG by Iranian Missile. Trump excused it saying that was an Iranian error in the chain of command !
There is much bragging… But no war will come.
There have been plenty of excuses for war.
Trump or Iran just do not want it.
That much is pretty clear.
That being said.
How the Soleimani death with false ring fits…
The question is if Iran or the Trump administration do not want war. Then who was responsiboe for the chemical famse flag in Syria.
Or the Japanese tanker hit in the PG last summer.
Maybe other players ?
As for Soleimani death.
That is truly a bad hollywood story.
Why not arrest him and take him away for interrogation if he arrived in the Bagdad by commercial flight from Lebannon as has been alleged ?
Maybe that is the case and that is only cover up ?
The point is the official story is full of hole and the dot do not connect.
That much is clear.
The Boeing story is same stuff.
Why not close the airspace after the Iran strike on Iraq ?
If it is a sign all was agreed between Iran and US upfront. Then what happened with the boeing ?
Just like the abqaiq strike where Houthis took the blame upon themselves.
Whereas the UN said investigation said it is impossible…
The question : who did it ? And why ?
And why the drones and missiles have not been detected without a single saudi AA working ?
Much is unknown. All shrouded in mistery…
to Anonymous, January 13th, 2020:
You are right, the ring on Suleimans finger isn’t the same. Both pictures of the ring on the given website of the news paper aren’t identical.
Hasn’t a gen-test done in order to verify, if his body was too much in pieces ??
So, what should be taken to be true ? Has some sort of a “game” set “on the political stage” ?
I do not know.
But I remember the excuse about the patriot not working at abqaiq : the saudi are lazy and they were not doing the job. Maybe sleeping…. who knows ?
Totally unbilivable story. You know like the Boeing… that was “unfortunate”.
Just like the Epstein case. The guards were sleeping and the cameras were out of order. Therefore he commited suicide with paper sheet linen…
Obviously that is not the real story.
agree there is no evidence iran dd not erroneously shoot the plane down. however, motives for the deep state to do so include inciting domestic unrest v. the mullahs [as occurred apparently under UK handling] and giving the west a full war pretext. these symbiotic results in line with 9-11 type thinking; surely within israel’s range of thinking. also surely within kgb anticipation, preparation and response, incl advice to iran to take responsibility as defense to usa war attack and internal uprisings. we will see.
Well said. It seems that there is a similarity with the downing of the Russian IL-20 in Syria, in 2018. If indeed the Russians are behind the Iranian decision to assume responsibility, it may take time before we know what really happened. So far, it seems that the Iranian decision has been met by a disconcerting gasp among its enemies…
For me, the chain of Cause & Effect makes the Outlaw US Empire ultimately the guilty party. If Soleimani hadn’t been murdered, the plane would never have been shot down. It’s just that simple. Yes, the error is grievous and there’s clearly a problem within Iran’s system. But is it better to have uncovered the problem now with the loss of just one aircraft or to not have found out and lose even more in a later event?
I give Iran’s leaders very high marks for being Truthful, which is the exact opposite of what we get from all Western pukes.
The most criminal decision was to let civil aircraft fly in such circumstances, the IRGC was using them as human shield against a possible reprisal. As show by flightradar24 10 aircraft comprised the PS752 departed from IKA after midnight, two in similar vertical and horizontal path like the downed one. https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ukrainian-flight-ps752-crashes-shortly-after-take-off-from-tehran/
The TOR-M1 radar has IFF capability but I’ve no clue how it works with civil transponder but i doubt it’s integrated with the airport radars. In any case they should have seen the aircraft coming from Teheran and turning right like the other two before. I found three possible answers:
1- Gross human error, so gross it’s hard to digest also if admitted
2- If the Tor can recognise civil transponder (if anyone has solid info share please), the PS752 one was switched off after departure
3- Radar Jamming, hard to believe so deep in Iran’s territory and on a mobile short-range system
@Luis Yes IFF means it can also interrogate civilian transponder (ADS-B)
IRGC requested the shutdown of airspace while air defenses having the highest alert level, it was declined by the government. Why? Maybe government wanted to use human shield against US attacks or they did not think it was necessary after their “save face without victims and without US retaliation” understanding with the Americans, maybe they did not communicate this understanding back to IRGC where was still expecting an attack because of info cruise missiles were launched against Iran (spoofed cruise missiles?).
Maybe the Americans wanted to confuse the Iranians with double talk: Americans promising Iranian government there would be no US retaliation if no US victims with Iranian attack, Iranian government thinking “all is well, no need to close air space”, while at the same time Americans are pretending to launch cruise missiles at Iran (spoofing) and thus confusing the IRGC into making a fatal mistake.
Why would the Americans spoof a cruise missile launch and not launch a real one (if that is what happened)?
Only 1 reason, that is Americans agreed not to retaliate (directly) thus they on purpose provoked the Iranians into making a fatal mistake while Americans knew very well airliners were still flying above Tehran and Iran.
Via Suter, the US has the capability to monitor what another country’s radar operators can see, take control of their networks and direct their sensors and invade links to time-critical targets such as ballistic missile launchers and mobile SAMs
Current Suter ELINT systems can secretly invade and control an enemy’s air defense radar systems, move their sensors and create a blind spot, show false air traffic screens, including showing false screens with unidentified aircraft coming at them.
US struck Iranian military (IRGC) computers this week (2019)
The Americans have planned this, their reasoning probably was that it was cheaper to sacrifice 1 airliner at the hands of the IRGC (designated by USA as terrorist organization) than a direct confrontation with Iran which would cost 100000s of deaths on all sides and make USA and Trump look real bad in public opinion.
The result of this (assassination and “hack”) is the Iranians are so demoralized now they have no choice but to surrender to US demands.
You are making a mistake, you are focusing only on the single Tor. It is the complete Integrated Air Defenses of the IRGC that detected multiple cruise missile launches and because cruise missiles hug the terrain you cannot track them on radar until the very last moment, the target and weakest link (Tor) had to react real quick. The Integrated Air Defenses had been hacked and injected with fake data, that is why they were on the highest alert level while Iranian government had American reassurances of no retaliation (through back channels), but sneaky Americans faked cruise missile launches in order to provoke IRGC into making a fatal mistake (Americans knew damn well their airspace was open). This was a setup!
Thx for the additional info Dave. Maybe in 20 years or so we’ll see the clear picture, but till now we’re only speculating with the info we get
There is no speculating. IRGC “integrated” air defenses had information of incoming cruise missiles, that means only one thing, Americans faked cruise missile launches.
University of Tehran Cyperspace Research Lab: On the matter of the Ukrainian plane accident in Iran, the role of human error has been ruled out [as it has been discovered that] deception operations were carried out on the air control & command system. – https://twitter.com/khoosh_/status/1216782662968455168
USA has a history of planing false flags including shooting down planes:
Operation Northwoods was a proposed false flag operation against the Cuban government that originated within the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) of the United States government in 1962. The proposals called for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) or other U.S. government operatives to commit acts of terrorism against military targets and give the appearance of terrorism against American citizens, blaming them on the Cuban government, and using it to justify a war against Cuba. The possibilities detailed in the document included the possible assassination of Cuban immigrants, sinking boats of Cuban refugees on the high seas, hijacking planes to be shot down or given the appearance of being shot down, blowing up a U.S. ship, and orchestrating violent terrorism in U.S. cities. The proposals were rejected by President John F. Kennedy.
A thorough and interesting technical explanation about how the Tor-M1 might have been hijacked:
According to Israeli military sources, an Iranian F-4 was shot down by a TOR-M1 anti-aircraft system, which is deployed to guard the Bushehr nuclear reactor (2010):
Flightradar24 cannot be trusted, and especially not in Iran since it is on receivers locally.
For instance IFR flights are not allowed to takeoff without an active transponder that should identify the aircraft as civilian air traffic.
Anyhow, the military personell has made a gigantic blunder of incompetance, firing a SAM at a civilian airliner departing (climbing out) of the international airport during take off. It is incomprehensable. The military should know everything and be familiar with the airspace patterns from monitoring the airspace.
We need trustworthy information before making any judgement.
And why I am inclined to be suspicious of foul play involved, something like dave has pointed out.
The blunder is so obvious that it deserves suspicion.
US/Israel/NATO clearly has a lot of capabilities made available by modern technologies that are surprisingly made available for remote connections, example they can drive modern cars off the road since the onboard computer controls the entire car and are connected via a network.
Hacking radar and communication networks are probably possible within state capabilities even in Iran.
NATO had been very active from its bases in Romania monitoring the iranian missile launches gathering information.
You’re right John, we can only speculate with logic and the fragmented info we get but always stay suspicious. For me it’s still hard to believe in the failure of the integrated air defence system cause hacking, the Airport radar was working fine on departure and so the aircraft transponder. In order to foul the TOR radar you need a lot of kwh. it would be much simpler to shot off the transponder or hack it using a GPS if you know the TOR-M1 IFF codes.
The Israeli E-tack on Syria (2008)
“Suter beams electronic pulses into the antennas that effectively corrupt, if not hijack, the enemy processing systems.”
“Suter technology entirely bypasses the enemy’s radar wave machinery.”
“Even if the operators know they’re being hijacked, regaining control of the system is not easy.”
“Syria’s ADS network is centralised, which is an invitation to disaster without a network firewall.”
Are Putin and Erdogan building a giant “Mesopotamia Pocket” for western forces?
Ukrainian PS752 Mystery Solved: Shot Down by Israel’s Unit 8200?
By Kevin Barrett – January 10, 2020
Today’s False Flag Weekly News two-hour special on the Soleimani assassination (links to stories
HERE) featured Ian Greenhalgh of Veterans Today, who first broke the story that Ukrainian airliner
PS752 was downed by a missile.
We both agreed that our FFWN colleague Jeremy Rothe-Kushel has offered the most plausible
hypothesis explaining how and why the plane was taken down.
I fully agree with The Saker’s commentary here.
But . . .
Why were there video clips from cell phones turned on and pointing into the darkened pre-dawn sky, and at the very crash site?
The very first indication that the attacks on the World Trade Centers was known to somebody beforehand, was the 3 or 4 videos taken of the planes as they were crashing into the towers, including one from street level.
Just saying . . .
I have been critical of the lack of response by the UN, the charter, international law and warcrimes involved in
US false flag attacks and assasinations against Iran.
UN appears to have become corrupt, taken over by NGO’s and their funders. It is no secret that
the Rothschild syndicate via their organisations are behind this as they also run the decision processes
withing governments, they end up consequentially within a dictatorial setting like the UN, and EU.
So we are at risk of a war in which UN is not acting to counteract it having corrupt officials at the highest levels, and apart from that establishing a bureaucracy of carrer actors depending on war and crisis so that it has become welcomed.
Trump green-lighted assasination of lt. gen. Soleimani in June last year according to NBC news (almasdarnews,com).
It is a warcrime and a severe act of agression that the international community should act upon according to the UN charter and ICC Roma Statute. Iraq may refer the case directly to the ICC since it happened in Iraq. Iran plans to take Trump to international court.
J.P. Farrell is starting to put a different spin on all the ongoing insanity for the past few years.
Worth a look… he talks about the fires everywhere but what is interesting is his end-of-the-twig speculation because, when you look at all of it, it sure doesn’t look “human” by any means, however rotten humans can really be and too much is happening too fast and in too many places on Earth. https://gizadeathstar.com/2020/01/australia-burning-disaster-capitalism-or-something-else/
The idea of a 5th column makes sense (it has always existed) but… of what true origin?
A Dr of “Patristics” — really? … That is relevant (not!)
What to with this type of idiocy?
Wipe it, or leave and respond?
On the assumption that the blog owner leaves, then I’ll waste a few minutes if it helps clear the mind for ‘stay on message’ discussions.
My first assumption is, alphabet agency @ work again.
“Conspiracy theory” must be losing its traction with the mass mentality.
1. Drop the ‘alien’ BS … zero relevance, except in science fiction land. Compared to chimps et al we are all effing aliens. Crashed spaceships or eating magic fungi, … take your pick. We use language to communicate. End of story. That requires a mental model/map (theory of mind) at least and then some vocal assets. That theory of mind has risks as well as benefits. We can speak (use metaphors etc) and also get lost in our own created mental models and BS. It is called Maya (illusion) in some domains.
2. Australian fires are natural. It is the ecology here. Agreed, some years are worse than others — usually on a 10-15 year cycle … and zippo to do with stars and more to do with un-burnt residue of leaf and bark matter. Here we are in 2009 — yep, 11 years ago (that is the norm but I didn’t want o say so because some will start off on solar cycles etc). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Saturday_bushfires
The current mass-media and global psychosis du jour is ‘climate change’ etc. It may or may not be relevant in the larger scale, but it is being used to manipulate for political ends in the short term. “The End of the World”… (yawn!). Read up on Millennial cults of the (European) Middle Ages. (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pursuit_of_the_Millennium) — we are here again.
The fires in Portugal, California, etc mostly all have one thing in common — the introduced Australian Eucalyptus—often called gum trees. For example, see this from 2013 — https://www.livescience.com/40583-australia-wildfires-eucalyptus-trees-bushfires.html
And there is science that suggests eucalyptus evolved to use fire as a strategic weapon and advantage. The species changes the local ecology to suit its adaptive capacities. For example, see https://scienceillustrated.com.au/blog/nature/bushfires-have-been-in-australia-for-over-60-million-years/
[Several papers exist, but a search for Dr Crisp’s thesis can be located online in section 2 of “Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World” (CSIRO Publishing 2012, p. 27). ]
‘Marvelous’ eucalyptus trees were introduced from Australia into many dryer climates around the world a hundred years ago or more. Why is there any surprise that they now influence the climate in those locations as they have done in Australia for 50+ millions years? You can subscribe to ecological ‘intent’ if you like, or just see it as a positive (ie normally ‘bad’ run away reinforcing feedback loop) as is your preference.
But please stop indulging in ‘magical’ thinking for purely earthy phenomena. We are reaping the longer-term ‘benefits’ of the shorter-term actions of those a century or more ago. Just as those in 100-200 years will reap ours. (I hope they have solved the plastics issue by then — thanks chemistry + big business + mass consumerism etc).
The other major issue/problem (here at least) is the yuppie hobby farm / romantic edge of forest urban dweller. Yes, great while it is good — and destroyed when it burns. Older folk who grew up in country regions know the dangers better. So, when it burns, from being lit, or by lightening in storms, the (on the cheap) voluntary fire brigades — yes, those non-economic social services that do not get owned and funded by Wall Street gangs — can only react at the margins. And fire/forest management policy is a joke — tugged between pragmatic control burning and residential planning and ‘deep green’ theology that privileges tree hugging.
Finally, many Australian plant species are adapted to this cycle and their seeds will not germinate (no matter how much rain) until fire heat and sometimes a certain chemical is detected (even in minute amounts) that comes from forest fire smoke and ash. “The molecule, which they named karrikinolide (after the Nyungar word, karrik, which means smoke) is in a class of molecules called butenolides.” https://www.science.org.au/curious/earth-environment/plant-germination
Postnote: here in western side of the Australian island continent (close to the size of the USA in land mass). Huge fires raged in the 1930’s in very lowly inhabited forests. https://trailswa.com.au/trails/bibbulmun-track-daywalk-giant-tingle-tree-to-coalmine-beach/points-of-interest/view/742363
I cannot find the references at present, but these fires burnt for years in some remote forest areas (without road access). Most large eucalyptus trees survive normal fires but there is even today still evidence of a long treeless line a few km wide across the south western forest where two huge separate burning fire fronts burning in the 1930s merged — the heat was so intense at the front line that even the eucalyptus-trees died out.
Some angry tirade indeed… And I suppose over a billion dead kangaroos. koalas, wild and domestic animals, along with millions and millions of acres of land burnt is… “natural?
Speaking like a true UN Agenda 30 proponent! And wait! “Climate change” is causing all of it, CO2 and what not and… it just started a few years ago, just out of the blue! Right?
J.P. Farrell writes under his own name and puts his reputation on it. So do I (although I do not write books).
Such a long, anonymous tirade reeks of… brainwashing? And the anger seeping from it is… mind-boggling! I love it when someone has all the answers and refuses to ask the questions, let alone consider anything but the official version of anything. Cuz’ where I sit, millions (if not billions) ask the questions worldwide. I wonder why… And sources spewing the “official” version of anything are going down the toilet!
Seen how MSM and Academia’s relevance has gone down lately? Hmmm… must be a virus.
Government and academia will come up with a cure, I’m sure.
There are a lot of different things all mixed up in the J.P. Farrell pages linked by Christine Marais but there is certainly at least one main point that is absolutely true and cannot be explained by any “normal” kind of fire. Both in the California fires of the Sonoma area, and the Australian fires now, houses appear totally destroyed amid intact shrubery right next to them. Large tree trunks combust spontaneously from the inside out with no fire around them. Lots of cars with engine blocks and wheel rims melted out. It all looks as if the destructive force focuses selectiely on certain things or materials and the criteria is not combustibility. Totally incongruent with the nature of a normal fire. All of it very reminiscent of the wierdly “toasted cars” in the vicinity of the WTC on 911. As if office fires blocks away could magically do that.
The Saker writes: “let’s compare how neutral, democratic, noble, and otherwise putatively “civilized” SWITZERLAND acted when by the TOTAL fault of Swiss Air Traffic Control a Russian passenger jet
and a US cargo jet crashed into each other over southern Germany.”
2002 Überlingen mid-air collision
On the night of 1 July 2002, Bashkirian Airlines Flight 2937, a Tupolev Tu-154 passenger jet, and DHL
Flight 611, a Boeing 757 cargo jet, collided in mid-air over Überlingen, a southern German town on Lake Constance, near the Swiss border. All 69 passengers and crew aboard the Tupolev and the two crew
members of the Boeing were killed.
Father of air-crash victims guilty of revenge killing
Kaloyev, a Russian engineer, lost his wife and two children when two aircraft collided over
southern Germany in July 2002, killing 71 people.
Kaloyev, who was working on a building contract in Spain at the time, took the next avail-
able flight to Germany and was the first relative at the scene.
He found the body of his four-year-old daughter, Diana, virtually unscathed as her fall from
36,000 feet had been broken by trees. “She was carried to earth by an angel,” Kaloyev said
at the time. The mangled corpse of his son, Konstantin, was on Tarmac in front of a bus
shelter and the barely recognisable body of his wife Svetlana, 42, was found days later in a
field of maize. “I cannot live any more,” Kaloyev said then. “I simply exist.”
If this was any other country’s aircraft e.g. Iceland, Norway or various other smaller neutral countries, I’d be inclined to believe an honest accident than a snafu. However, this being a Ukraine’s aircraft, it poses even more questions and gives birth to several speculative theories.
When you smell a rat, there’s likely a rat around.
Safe to say, whatever the circumstances are, one of its objective is strong a statement from “someone” to “someone”. Whether Iran, US/Israel or Russia.
P.S. Can probably scratch Russia off, except from the Boeing 787 Max issue, we don’t hear planes from countries on the good side of US/Israel diving into the ground. If someone wants to tally off the plane crashes for the last decade (year 2001 and above) and run some statistical analysis vs geopolitical alignment, my hunch there might be a discernible pattern there.
P.P.S Remember Israel’s snafu that led to Syria shooting down Russia’s intel plane? Honest accident/incompetence right?
“Why did the Iranian civil and military authorities not close down the Iranian airspace”
(I haven’t looked through the comments under this topic, so I am likely repeating a something already brought up.)
There is a obvious, simple and reasonable answer to that question. The Iranians were not expecting there to be a military response from the americans after Iran’s symbolic strikes in Iraq. Why they weren’t expecting a counter attack is a wee bit more complicated, though.
The assassination of Qasem Soleimani and the missile response always seemed a little too scripted to me.
Remembering Miles Mathis’ research finding that Hitler and his inner circle were Jewish, and that Ali Khamenei and his inner circle were also Jewish, most likely the removal of a most revered and patriotic military/intel leader like Soleimanie was foreordained.
And Iranians finally protesting the replacement of so many brainy patriots by “Muslin clerics” makes my case.
Miles Mathis finds jews in his flowerpots – according to him, they are everywhere – even his cat is a jew :-). Not a reliable source in my view.
Here is an interesting analysis of the New York Times video that captured the Ukrainian airliner being shot down from “amateur” video footage that was miraculously taken in exactly the right place at the right time.
This article raises some questions about the circumstances of this video footage that are suggestive of foreknowledge of the shoot-down by the anonymous videographer:
The anonymous videographer is the person who caught the 19-second clip which shows a missile striking Flight PS752 shortly after take-off from Tehran’s Imam Khomenei airport at around 6.15 am. This person, who remains silent during the filming while smoking a cigarette (the smoke briefly wafts over the screen), is standing in the suburb of Parand looking northwest. His location was verified by the NY Times using satellite data. The rapid way the newspaper’s technical resources were marshaled raises a curious question about how a seemingly random video submission was afforded such punctilious attention.
But the big question which many people on social media are asking is: why was this “videographer” standing in a derelict industrial area outside Tehran at around six o’clock in the morning with a mobile phone camera training on a fixed angle to the darkened sky? The airliner is barely visible, yet the sky-watching person has the camera pointed and ready to film a most dramatic event, seconds before it happened. That strongly suggests, foreknowledge.
Given that something awful has just been witnessed it is all the more strange that the person holding the camera remains calm and unshaken. There is no audible expression of shock or even the slightest disquiet.
Turns out that Nariman Gharib, the guy who received the video and credited by the NY Times for submitting it, is a vociferous anti-Iranian government dissident who does not live in Iran. He ardently promotes regime change in his social media posts.
Iran Jet Disaster Setup
“Why did the Iranian civil and military authorities not close down the Iranian airspace (which the US side, by the way, seemed to have done).”
I read some comment quoting an article with a Ukrainian analyst stating that closing civilian airspace in general involves significant financial losses and possible legal problems from airlines, etc. So that is a possible reason why the civilian airspace was not closed. This was from one of the comments on Moon of Alabama on this event. I cannot find the specific linked article, however.
Recall the Syrian shooting down of Russian military aircraft in Sept 2018 which Russia immediately blamed on Israel. This kind of deceptive operational strategy – inducing A to attack B for the benefit of C while C is apparently engaging A – is something that the Atlantic alliance (US/UK/Israel etc.) has been developing for some time. Deception is nothing new, but tactics & methods are being developed all the time by those who take military science extremely seriously. Electronic warfare is also a specialism of the Israelis – here is the key question: who benefits? Iran most certainly does not, unless they were targeting certain persons on the flight, which is what I originally thought. The UK ambassador in Tehran is arrested for organizing & coordinating protests relating to this incident – this, in my view, is actually highly suspicious, could it be just opportunism on the UK’s part? How? Rent a crowd ready to hit Tehran’s streets for any reason when UK/US intel order it? Colour tactic style? Or did they know in advance? I am speculating but it is worth considering the possibility that in some way the Iranian air defenses were hoaxed into this – or infiltrated, or both. I don’t claim to know, but am asking questions.
This seems relevant, if it hasn’t been posted here already:
Maybe we shold seriously be examining a setup.
what is very interesting to me is the level of contact between them all, all the big nations behind the scenes. and they are supposed to be enemies at each others throats. what goes on in front the cameras from them all is so different from what goes on behind…
how easy would it be for all the world elites, their leaders, to collude amongst themselves: along with Bankers and business corporate owners… against the interest of the ordianry people of the world ?
It does seem that those birds of the same feathers, do eventually want to flock together. The creation of the Fed set the scam in motion, and naturally invites all willing partners aboard.
But just how far and wide can the influence go? We probably will never know.
More info on the incident. If true, this appears significant:
Vital New Info on the Ukrainian Jet Downed by Iran
By Jim Stone on January 14, 2020
According to Jim Stone the transponder and communications that would have enabled Iranian air defences to identify the Ukrainian jet, were REMOTELY switched off
“The Boeing shootdown in Iran is looking increasingly murky.
i) The earliest video was taken by someone calmly looking in the right direction and elevation to capture the missile strike. There was no exclamation of surprise at the the hit. The person was in a car park in the middle of nowhere at about 6:30 am. The person releasing the video was an anti-Iran expat in London (?)
ii) Canada came out very early saying the strike was the result of an Iranian missile, based on ‘intelligence’.
iii) A Tor missle nose cone was quickly on the scene. This is a little odd as the missile and target would be on diffferent trajectories, with the missile travelling substantialy faster than the target.
iv) Now a video has appeared showing not one missile launch but two. The missiles appear to travel much slower than expected for a high performance SAM – manpads? First missile at ~0:03 and second at ~ 0:33
The two missiles appear to be launched along line of sight to target. Tor missiles are fired vertically and then use vector rockets to rotate quickly to the direction of flight. They also shift.
A video with Tor launches
It looks like the Boeing in Iran was hit by two manpads rather than a Tor missile.
A swiss blogger has a map of the flight.
Airport, last position (green) and crash site (yellow) rocket battery (red)
Full artcle in german, a lot of questions and reasoned guesses but no facts
Here the yandex translation of the article, i saw it mentioned above but not translated.
Why is Iran to blame for the crash?
After repeated Denial and the need to provide Evidence of foreign entities, they would spread lies about Iran, President Hassan Rouhani admitted on Saturday that Iran has shot down Accidentally the Ukrainian aircraft that took off from the international airport in Tehran in the midst of the tensions with the United States last Wednesday. In a startling turn of Iran to the Ukrainian passenger jet accidentally shot down. That the Iranian government is quite open to this admission, his deep Regret, an apology and his condolences to the bereaved and expresses the willing damage pay rate is remarkable and does not fit into the Western-built image, it is a very, very evil, cold-hearted brutal terrorist Regime.
When I saw the message on Saturday early in the Morning, I was surprised by the total. I thought to myself, why this sudden complete turn and open confession? What has prompted the Iranian government to take the blame for the crash? I mean, I know Iran, and I’ve seen how the Iranians think. You are not proud of and normally when errors happen to give you this, but are looking for excuses to save face. Therefore, I ask the question, why do you not have a suitable culprit for the Downing?
If I were the dictator of Iran, and the military chief would inform me that they had shot down the machine, then I would proceed as follows, because I am the very evil sneaky Despot:
“So, who can we attach to this fact? How would it be with terrorists, which penetrated Iran, and with a Manpad the Airliner from the sky have brought in to harm us? We say now, Yes, the machine was shot down, but the perpetrators were ISIS or Al-Qaeda or the Mujahedin Khalq. We say to the West, you see, we are suffering from terrorism as you. We make it so as the West, it is practiced, and plant the right evidence. Don’t forget the passports of the perpetrators at the firing point, lie down, and then shot on the run. We simply copy the method of the West in terrorist attacks!”
With this justification of the crash and Determining a Scapegoat a lot of advantages:
. It has a plausible justification, the terrorists were there, the credible
– Has the West by the neck and says, Yes, it was a launch and not a technical Defect
– You are yourself a victim of the evil from the foreign invading terrorists
– Action can be taken against the Opposition in the country and the reins tighten
– You have to pay no compensation, can offer him to, but out of “generosity”
– Using the Propaganda of the West against yourself and you have to swallow it
Yes, why has not pushed the Iranian government to these launchers to terrorists? Would have been easy, instead of the revolutionary guard. Who could dispute and prove that it was so? The Western audience is already conditioned for 20 years and the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Whether the missile was shot down by the Iranian military or by terrorists, no one abroad can see. You submit the appropriate evidence, and appropriate track and uses the media to spread. So it is fine!
Why has taken over the Iranian government and the entire debt? This is not at all typical of governments and politicians, no matter where in the world. Normal is that you are looking for a culprit and determine.
By this admission, the Iranian government has subjected to criticism in his own country, for students from the University of Amirkabir, have demonstrated, and the resignation of the top military chiefs called for, because 13 students from the University on Board and perished. They cried: “There must be a process! Resignation is not enough!” and “Constitution, Referendum!”
I have discussed the whole Saturday with fellow Aviators and connoisseurs of Iran over this change. I’m already landed at the International airport of Tehran and started, know this, and also the area well. We compared the flight data and the statements of the Iranians over the shooting with each other and checked, found significantly discrepancies.
In our opinion, there are many facts that speak against a launch. This is going to sound paradoxical, but the Iranians have to admit, but nevertheless, must the crash be otherwise expired. The question we ask ourselves therefore, why not, is added to the shooting down by the military, if it was so? Why a debt to take, if there is a different cause to the crash led to?
What speaks against a launch by a rocket?
1. The graphics look with the departure routes (yellow) signed, which all the machines on 8. January have taken. Red is the Route of PS752, which is exactly like all the others.
In the four hours PRIOR to the Start of the Ukrainian Boeing 9 machines are flown the same course, but this never took place AFTER the rocket tap on US bases in Iraq.
The air defense position of the Iranian military has so 9 machines above it fly, in spite of high alert, and then the 10. shoot. We are supposed to believe!
2. We have checked the outgoing flights before and after the crash of flight PS752 and all the same start of the route to be flown, which passes close to the military restricted area on the left and right and even beyond. Therefore, the statement of the Iranian military is not true, you would have been too close to defence installations and would have been shot down because of that. All the machines are approaching from the airport “Imam Khomeini” in the direction of the West to start the restricted area without being shot down.
3. The Boeing 737-800, the “Ukraine International” was under the control of the air traffic controllers and follow their instructions, according to the data do not depart from them, and the pilots have done nothing wrong to provoke a shooting. There was a flight plan and the aircraft was cleared for take-off and for climb. A return to the airport, when aborting the start and a Problem is a normal procedure and everyone’s in the know.
4. The chief of the air force of the revolutionary guard, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, claimed that the air defense had identified a cruise missile and, therefore, the rocket is launched. Such a false identification is not possible, because a cruise missile is very small compared to a Boeing 737-800 and the speeds are very different. The 737 had just started and with between 120 at the Start and 270 knots at the last Position on the road. But a cruise missile is therefore comes with almost the speed of sound.
Then, civilian aircraft, a transponder from sending the signal to the identification for the Radar and the pilots, but enemy flying objects. Therefore, the statement of the military cannot vote, they have kept the Boeing for a cruise missile. On all screens the machine was clearly recognisable as a civilian machine. A confusion is excluded. Even if the Transponder fails, the Computer of the Radar tracks the machine correctly.
5. I have signed up to Hand the coordinates of the airport (blue), the last Position, according to Flightradar24 (green), the restricted area and the rocket position (red) and the crash site (yellow). We see the Ukrainian machine was over the course on the left of the restricted area, then made a turn to the right after you had a Problem and wanted to return to the airport. She was removed from the restricted area and the missile launch position, which, in turn, provides no launch reason.
Click on it to Enlarge
6. A turn to the Right may indicate the failure of the right engine, because with one-sided thrust of the left engine, the machine instantly turns to the right, but not as strong as here, more than 90 degrees. So the pilot initiated the turn.
7. A Rocket hit a plane is so severely damaged that it breaks up in the air and the debris scattered far to fall to the ground. But here’s the area of the crash site (yellow) is very small, like a football field, the Boeing bounces as a Whole, which speaks against a launch.
AS A REMINDER, THE SHOOTING DOWN OF MH-17, IT HAS FOUND THE WRECKAGE ON AN AREA OF 50 SQUARE KILOMETERS!!!
8. If the machine was made at the location of the last Position (green) of a rocket, then the debris would have fallen down, lying around and to find. Nothing has been reported. In addition, there is no curve to the right, and the crash would have happened in the direction of flight.
9. The Iranians have shot down a Russian GOAL short-range missile the missile position (red), the the targeted flying object supposedly destroyed. Then all the witnesses to the missile launch would have seen a bright trail of Light of the flame from the rocket motor from the launch site (red) on the ground to impact in the sky. Such an observation has not been made.
10. Flight PS752 was leaving on the way to Kiev, in Iran. It is therefore highly unlikely to confuse this exit with a hostile invading cruise missiles. Tehran is also Thousands of kilometers from the Iraqi and Turkish border, or from the Persian Gulf, far to the Inland.
11. The military is in order, you have the allegedly foreign invading cruise missiles all the way to Tehran, unhindered by go and on the verge of being “discovered” and shot down, which is another “failure”. Very implausible, where they expected but with a US counter-strike and red alert were.
12. There are photos with a Missile warhead of a GATE is shown lying on the ground, as evidence, the machine was shot down. But if the warhead is still intact, then he’s not exploded and has not taken the machine. HELLO!!! This explosive was planted in head as “proof” or the photo here is from somewhere else.
We doubt, therefore, that the Boeing 737-800 Ukraine International flight PS752, was shot down by a missile. We think it was more of a technical failure shortly after the Start.
If the military really did it and for a cruise missile would have held, then the military leadership would have ordered an immediate hermetic seal of the crash area to secure the wreckage of the enemy object, so that you can evaluate, from where it originates and who the attacker is.
But So were the ambulance and the fire brigade sent, because you knew it was the crash of a passenger plane. Everyone was on the debris field. The civilian authorities were in charge of the investigation, the languages of a technical Problem as the cause of a crash.
We, therefore, ask why Iran pleads guilty to have the machine shot down? What a motive there is for it, or what the Iran for a promise, if it is committed to a launch?
As I said above, it would gave been easier to blame terrorists in the shoes, if it really an “error” launch. Then you would save face and a plausible explanation is to be found.
Really can anyone believe that the government of Iran consists of very honest and sincere people, Yes, almost from the saints, which admit their guilt at a disaster point and apologize? That would be the first Time in the history of the world, the politicians from any country will do!!!
And if you are so honest and good, admitting they made a mistake, what have told us, then the Western media and governments for the past 40 years, to slander, false accusations and lies, the “Mullah Regime” is not just from killers, and Iran is a terrorist state would be?
We are of the opinion that the Iranian government was promised something SO ENTICING, or something as LARGE AS threatened, that they are willing to take the blame for a catastrophe on themselves.
Why, because it is under no circumstances a technical Defect was allowed to be another crash with many dead, what would break Boeing finally the Neck. Because of the aerospace, aircraft and defense group represents ALL of AMERICA and one of the most important export products.
It comes to trump’s re-election, jobs and the trade deficit!!!
After the crash of the Boeing 737-800 on Wednesday the 8. January crashed the Boeing stock on the same day, to 2.3 percent, a destruction of Asset of 3.4 billion dollars.
On Thursday, the stock rose 3 percent after unnamed Pentagon officials claimed that the Ukrainian passenger plane was probably brought by anti-aircraft missiles to crash … and Trump supported the statement implicitly.
The Americans “knew” only a few hours after the crash, it was a missile launch, which took place but “accidentally”. Alone this qualification, it was a “Mistake”, is for me very suspicious and was the beginning of the fairy tale and the “bridge” for Iran.
This was read by analysts as an attempt to manipulate the stock market; a measure, the failure of both Trumps in the Iraq whitewash, as well as Boeing prior to the bankruptcy should save.
Trump is a big Boeing Fan, and as a private plane, a Boeing 757. He also knows how enormously important the group is for jobs, the American economy and for the military!!!
Therefore, he constantly exercises pressure on US allies to buy products of Boeing, the second-largest defense companies in the country, received between 2014 and 2018, defense contracts in the amount of 104 billion dollars.
Boeing is also one of the largest U.S. export ensures that your China, for a considerable reduction of the trade deficit.
What can not afford to Boeing, the United States and Trump at all, that after the debacle with the 787 (Dreamliner) and in accordance with the Groundig of the 737 Max, a crash due to a Defect with 176 dead on your cap goes.
As I have here reported to have 400 of the 737 Max at the bottom 46 of billions of dollars broke and Boeing burns $ 2 billion per month. The damages of the Airlines is also in the billions.
The Iranian civil aviation chief has been on Friday the reports that the Ukrainian plane, in the South of the capital Tehran experienced a crash of the rocket was made, as “illogical rumors” rejected.
“We can say that the aircraft, in view of the nature of the crash and the efforts of the pilots, it is to the Imam Khomeini airport and return, not in the air exploded. The claim that it is of the rocket was made, is so totally excluded, “said the official firmly.
Also, the Ukrainian Embassy in Iran from the castle, until then a kill of the aircraft. That was on Friday and on Saturday everything was different.
Three days after trump’s statement, the Iranian government is making a complete u-turn and takes what he said on Wednesday already, it was a firing, but an accidental.
The topic of Boeing, technical Defect, a lot of dead passengers, and a further loss of image, is from the table.
What is going on between Washington and Tehran? For Trump, it must be a LOT of value to many billion, Boeing out of the firing line. Has he made the Iranian government an offer they couldn’t refuse?
I mean that in a double sense, economic incentives but also threats. He has promised you a significant easing of sanctions, a free Hand in Iraq, or a destruction???
Is it just a coincidence that on the day of the crash, several Earthquakes up to 5.6 in the vicinity of the nuclear power plant of Busher were registered? It has to be something so huge that the Iranian government has taken the blame.
We’ll see what happens in the next few months with Iran, as Washington deals with the country, in order to identify the extent of the Deal. We must not forget, Trump has only a top priority of his re-election in November, no matter what the cost.
It is also remarkable to turned the media from one Moment to another, from “evil Iran” screaming to complete silence. The subject none is more.
What do you think? But, please, only constructive comments.
The following Video shows behaves like a 737, if an engine fails. It instantly turns in the direction of the failed engine is, as I have described above. In addition, this emergency shows that the pilots speak only after 2 minutes on the radio with the air traffic controllers and report the Problem. The wireless one uses always the last, because, first of all, if the Problem is recognised and treated, in order to bring the machine under control. Then to navigate. On the ground, eh, no one can help, except after the landing.
As parts from the left engine fell, and was shattered a window and the tailplane damaged. A woman has sucked half of it out. Passengers have you drawn back in but she died of her injuries.
A side effect..
After Iran accepted the ‘Blame’, the Anti-USA protests in Iran came down. Now the leaders of Iran can heave a sigh of relief. They won’t need to take strong Anti-US actions.
Tulsi Gabbard, Stephen Kinzer and Dennis Kucinich: Iran discussion
The full version (over 1 hour) of the discussion on Iran by Tulsi Gabbard, Stephen Kinzer and Dennis Kucinich can be found at: