On the topic of the Russia-Israel-Syria affair, which has culminated in the downing of a Russian Il-20 on September 17th just off the coast of Latakia…
by Ollie Richardson for The Saker Blog
I will first start this article by saying that I have read, both intentionally and unintentionally (stumbled upon), lots and lots of opinions about this specific topic. The main bulk of these opinions recycle the usual blaming of Russia and offer suggestions for how things “should” have been done and “should” now be done. The consensus seems to be that it is Israel that is solely to blame, and it should thus be severely punished. However, even though Russia was lambasted by social media “experts” for the fact that the state of Israel still existed on September 18th (the day after the downing of the Il-20), the criticism of Moscow’s policy vis-a-vis Israel’s general airstrikes in Syria has been unwavering.
Examples of the criticism are:
- “Russia doesn’t defend Syrian troops against Israeli airstrikes”;
- “Putin doesn’t verbally threaten Bibi with retaliation should he strike again”;
- “Russia doesn’t give Syria the S1/2/3/4/500”;
- and so on and so forth (you get the idea).
So, let’s outline, once again, what Russia’s policy vis-a-vis Israel is in Syria:
- Q) Does Israel violate Syrian airspace?
- Q) Has Israel directly killed Russian troops?
- Q) Does Israel put Hmeymim in any direct danger?
These answers are important. Why?
- Israel violates LEBANESE airspace, and we all know that the government in Beirut – or more precisely, Mr Hariri – is very friendly with Riyadh. Where is Lebanon’s deterrent to make Israel think twice about flying over Lebanon? There isn’t one. Also, the core of fourth generation warfare is using simulacra to position a digital hologram over actual ground warfare in order to carve out space to manoeuvre diplomatically. So even though Israel violates its airspace on paper, in reality it can do so with impunity. I.e., Lebanon is not going to down an Israeli jet. Hence Tel Aviv’s impudence in Lebanese skies.
With what? Lebanon is not allowed to have anti-air missiles or any weapon that represents a danger to Israeli violation of its water and Air.https://t.co/fBoRAOn8bn
— Elijah J. Magnier (@ejmalrai) September 4, 2018
I seem to recall that in February, 2018 the IDF decided to test the SAA’s air defences and came as close as they would like to violating Syrian airspace. The result? Two F-16’s were downed after dozens of S-200 missiles were fired at them. This incident was the result of Moscow giving the green light to the SAA to hit Tel Aviv on the teeth using the S-200 system. But social media “experts” were adamant that Israel had to be punished long before this. Any Israeli missile being launched towards Syria is a failure, they said.
And it is here that we recall that Russia and Israel had an agreement in place whereby Russia would not impede Israel’s bombing of “Hezbollah compounds” in Western Syria. Why did Russia agree to this? Because these strikes achieved and still achieve NOTHING. With this non-announced agreement in place, Israel was given some limited space to play out its war against Iran, but the most important thing is that this space was a CONTROLLED environment. I.e., Russia always reserved the right to exercise its options to change the parameters of the playground.
Now some will say that Israel should be completely shut out of Syria, and Russia is weak since it can’t implement this. Such a statement comes from the deep depths of idealism. The fact is that Russia cannot stop Israel meddling in Syria in one way or another, and doesn’t have an unlimited amount of resources to try to anyway. Not to mention the fundamental fact that Jews live all over the post-Soviet space and in Russia itself, which complicates the situation. How would those who are pro-Israel and pro-Russia react if Russia openly shot down and killed Israeli pilots? This is just one factor out of many.
Another factor is that the zionist rats that are currently in power in Israel are only a transient phenomenon. Governments and their policies come and go. It’s perfectly possible that a leader will come to power in Israel one day who is in favour of peace with Palestinians/Arabs, in the same way that a Putin can arrive after a Yeltsin. So with this in mind, why on Earth would Russia, for example, bomb Israeli territory and kill/wound Israeli civilians/troops? Why mass punish the Israeli people just because of the actions of a bunch of Zionist crooks in the Knesset? It is idiotic at best and further perpetuates this cycle of aggression that Uncle Sam feeds off.
Also, why jeopardise the possible emergence of a situation whereby a state of Israel can exist side by side with a Palestinian state in peace? Let’s be honest: in our lifetimes, the two-state solution is the only REALISTIC solution. I will be told that such a statement is unfair or disconnected from reality, but my response to that is: please explain to me how both the Israeli and Palestinian people can be integrated into Eurasia without bloodshed. Again, as I said, Russia isn’t interested in violence, it won’t solve anything and Trump said he’s in favor of two state solution. That’s why I use the word “realistic”. Furthermore, a two state solution can be the result of negotiations between all the major powers of the world, but mainly between US and Russia. Palestinians can be given much more territory than they currently have, but giving everything back, as romantic as it is, is simply not feasible. After all, what will happen to the Israeli people in the process of claiming all the stolen land back? Will they be massacred? If not, where will they go, and who will facilitate it? And who will enforce any return process and how long will it take to implement? Will a resolution in the UNSC be passed? And what happens when Israelis refuse to leave? They will be massacred?
- Israel has not, to date, directly killed any Russian troops. What happened on 17.09.18 was indirect, and there is a very big difference. And I am sure that Tel Aviv knows that this line must not be crossed whatsoever, since it will seriously threaten their own statehood, not to mention Gaza or the West Bank.
- Israel hasn’t yet, to date, caused any damage to Hmeymim or put the lives of the soldiers stationed there (on the ground) at risk. The incident on 17.09.2018 came very close to this, but it, all the same, did not cross this line. The consequence of this would be the same as the one mentioned in point No. 2.
- Israel violates LEBANESE airspace, and we all know that the government in Beirut – or more precisely, Mr Hariri – is very friendly with Riyadh. Where is Lebanon’s deterrent to make Israel think twice about flying over Lebanon? There isn’t one. Also, the core of fourth generation warfare is using simulacra to position a digital hologram over actual ground warfare in order to carve out space to manoeuvre diplomatically. So even though Israel violates its airspace on paper, in reality it can do so with impunity. I.e., Lebanon is not going to down an Israeli jet. Hence Tel Aviv’s impudence in Lebanese skies.
So now the synthesis:
I won’t discuss the details of what happened on 17.09.18. Why? Because I consider it to be irrelevant (like how people discuss the exact temperature that the steel columns melted on 9/11). What is important is how the parties reacted to the incident. And it is here that things become interesting. In December 2017, I wrote the tweet below (part of a thread):
15. won’t shoot down any IDF jets that launch token strikes on Hezbollah compounds. At the end of the day, Russia needed as fewer names as possible on the “targets that the S-400 should – in the eyes of the media – shoot down” list.
— Ollie Richardson (@O_Rich_) December 23, 2017
Take note of the expression “Russia needed as fewer names as possible on the ‘targets that the S-400 should – in the eyes of the media – shoot down’ list”. It is important. Let me explain what this means when inserted into the modern context. The S-400 in Hmeymim represents the Russian state. It represents Russia’s foreign policy. When the SAA fires SAM missiles into the sky, it represents not only the Syrian state (in the borders recognised by the UN), but also Syrian foreign policy. So, when have we really ever seen Russia fire any of its SAM systems in Syria? Yes, at militant drones. Jabhat al Nusra (or whatever it is called nowadays) is recognised by the UN as a terrorist organisation. And Russia affirms that these drones are sent from Nusrats in Idlib. I.e., the use of the SAM system in this context is completely in line with international law. And note how Russia thrusted this very fact into the face of the media in order to prevent any attempts to delegitimise the Idlib operation. This was a key factor that helped to prevent the West from treating us all to another Tomahawk show of weakness.
When the SAA fired its S-200 missiles at the Israeli jets in February of this year, was this in line with international law? Absolutely, since only Russia, Iran (IRGC), and Hezbollah were invited by Assad into Syria to combat terrorism. Hence why Russia okayed the launches. Now as I mentioned at the very beginning of this article, many social media “experts” reprimand the Kremlin because Israeli jets are not blown into pieces when they fire missiles at Syrian territory. It doesn’t enter their mind that there is a substantiated reason for this. But in order to delve into this topic, there is a need to explain what it is exactly that Russia (plus Eurasian friends) is trying to build here on this planet. For too long the West has used its airforce to firstly demolish and then vassalize sovereign states.
Using Yugoslavia as an example, the West stoked a sectarian civil war and then used the NATO airforce to steer the situation in the needed direction. Milosevic was given 2 bad options to choose from (intervene militarily or don’t). As a result, he was trapped. In Afghanistan and Iraq the US enjoyed the fruits of R2P and a crippled Russia (thanks to the CIA + Yeltsin combination!) to bulldoze statehood and install the needed political circle and economic direction. The aircraft carrier plus aircraft was a winning recipe, for now. But during all this time Russia wasn’t just sat twiddling its thumbs and waiting for some miracle to happen so that “superpower” status would arrive again. Serious work was being done to target the projected curve of development of the West’s war machine.
It was understood that the US can only exert its influence on MENA via aircraft carriers, and, where possible, by building military bases on the territory of vassalized failed states. Africa is actually one very large failed “state” that serves as a MIC “testing” terrain. It should be understood that the conception and implementation of the “Kinzhal” missile, for example, was not done on the basis of some whim or to sell weapons to make money. It was done in accordance with a very strict plan, targeting the vital “organs” of the Anglo beast.
The West (puppets of USA) was able to literally bulldoze Middle Eastern nations without facing any real resistance (the Libyan army didn’t even bring the SAM systems out of the warehouses). It is here that we see that “international law” is actually an equilibrium of the energy between “superpowers”. Yes, there is the UN charter and different treaties, but we all saw what happened in 2001/2002. We saw that definitions and concepts were very flexible, and that the US’ scheme of creating proxies, turning on them, and then removing them was almost flawless.
So how to stop this bulldozer from claiming more victims? We know that when it comes to MENA Israel calls the shots, and Uncle Sam and its EU puppets come to heel, and if they don’t, well… look at JFK. Furthermore, we’ve all heard Wesley Clark’s confession – 7 states in 5 years.
Iraq was no problem for the US to bulldoze in 2002 onwards – no other powerful nation had influence there. Somalia and Sudan is in Africa, which was brought to its knees after the USSR’s influence disappeared forever. Libya was easy to squash. But Iran, Yemen, and Syria seemingly didn’t go according to plan. Yemen has strategic ports and access to waters. It’s no secret that Iran enjoyed and still enjoys influence in Yemen, in the same way the Anglos did via their puppet Hadi. Iran developed a nuclear program, albeit a peaceful one. But it is a deterrent all the same. The Houthis are being supported by the members of “Eurasia”, and this is a) not a secret, and b) completely legitimate, since the West staged a coup first (and is feeding Al Qaeda’s presence in the East of the country) and we are now in the era of proxy warfare, since the emergence of nuclear weapons put an end to the traditional colonisation blitzkrieg. And Syria was always going to be problematic for Washington & Co because Russia already has a naval base there – in Tartus. But make no mistake, the West knew this very well, but now was the time to confront Russia in a “neutral” venue, in a “controlled” environment.
Why do I say “controlled” and “neutral”? The actual warfare is taking place thousands of miles away from US territory, and US citizens on that territory are thus not at risk (US troops are a different case). Thus, any blowback that may be incurred will have a delayed action. However, there was a need to activate a process that would gradually attack Russia’s rear. And et voila – the coup in Kiev in 2014 served as exactly this. Even knowing that Russia can potentially enter Syria, they took comfort knowing that they had the Ukraine card in play. If they didn’t do the coup in Ukraine, then Russia could enter Syria and risk very little in the process of reclaiming that “superpower” status by cementing itself in the middle of the globe, with access to important waters. Nusra and ISIS would’ve been crushed in the same way (maybe even quicker since it would be deprived of time to grow and expand).
So, in order to buy time and slow down Russia’s approach to Syria, the war in Donbass was launched. It was designed by the West in such a way that Putin would surely suffer the same fate as Milosevic, entering his troops into Donbass and starting an irreversible bloodbath. A man named Girkin, on the CIA’s payroll, tried his best to drag Russia into Donbass and to start the extermination of the Russian nation. But Putin, of course, isn’t dumb and didn’t bite on it. Instead, he engineered the Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo cauldrons, which were failsafe ways of ensuring that the West’s Ukrainian front was halted in its tracks. This resulted in the signing of the Minsk Agreements. What are they? They are the same as what the US did to Milosevic – they presented the West with 2 bad options: implement the agreements, Russia wins (collapse of statehood); don’t implement them, Russia wins (collapse of statehood).
The West had to sign the Agreements since their proxies had been encircled in Donbass and project Bandera risked being aborted early. And that, in short form, is how Putin negated the parallel process that aimed to prevent Russia from entering Syria with a lower risk level. So coming back to the key problem of the US’ bulldozing machine, the West took a gamble in Syria simply because they knew that a financial crisis is catching up with them with each passing day. Furthermore, Netanyahu doesn’t care about the consequences for the West; he wants to expand Israel in accordance with the Oded Yinon plan.
But for Russia, isn’t not just about saving Syrian statehood (note that I use this word and not Assad) and safeguarding strategic assets, it is also about shaping the next 100 years. De-dollarisation is already ongoing. But this is only one element of the greater picture. In order to counter this Anglo war machine there is a need to think laterally. By this I mean not attacking it head on, but instead flanking it. After all, the West provokes Russia so much because it WANTS a reaction. It wants to control Russia’s actions and reactions, for them to become predictable and for the room for manoeuvre to be like a sardine tin.
And it is here that we can return back to the topic of Israel’s airstrikes in Syria. Since Tel Aviv’s token airstrikes in Syria achieve absolutely nothing and de-rail nothing in the grand Eurasian scheme, this is why Russia didn’t want to completely shut Israel out. Earlier in this article I explained (see the embedded S-400 tweet) that there was a complex game ongoing whereby the West wanted to push Putin into publicly committing to firing the S-400. In the past I explained that the S-400 constitutes a philosophy and not a weapon. The philosophy is based on the notion of DEFENCE, and not pseudo R2P defence, but actual defence, against violators of international law and generally unstable/erratic actors. This actually follows in the footsteps of the very essence of what the Red Army did nearly 80 years ago, when it had the opportunity to exterminate the German nation – having the full moral right to do so, but it refrained from doing so.
The philosophy is also based on RISK. And by this I mean the now well-known expression “skin in the game”. I.e., the very foundation of international law should be based the fact that there will be consequences for one’s actions. And the UN here must be actually impartial. The problem is that the UN has been monopolised by the US (and its bullying) and its vassalized puppets for so long. The process of changing this is long, but people in general are impatient and want to eat their cake now, before they die. In other words, the S-400 embodies the notion that cooperation and diplomacy is a more effective guarantor of mass prosperity than colonisation and violent coercion. Militarily, the S-400 can act as a no-fly zone, but it is its position in the wider picture that really matters here.
This “Eurasian” project unfolding before our eyes embodies this notion of cooperation that in reality Americans have never known, since their country was founded on the back of bloodshed and spitting on the human soul. I hope I don’t offend Americans by stating this, but it’s the truth. Russia and friends want to incorporate as many nations into this project as possible, and not to make big bucks in profit, but to pull us away from this abyss that the Anglo-Saxons so badly want to throw us into.
So back to the main topic here: Israel. It’s true that Israel’s airstrikes were acting like a pest in Syria. They didn’t change anything in even the short-term, but they are a nuisance all the same, least of all because it generates this whining on the internet about “Putin/ Russia being weak”. The situation was such that if Russia downed an Israeli jet (using the tools at Hmeymim to do it), Russia would flush down the toilet all progress it has made since Putin came to power. It would be the most idiotic move imaginable and would warrant harsh criticism. Russia would become just as ugly as the Anglo Saxons are, also elbow-deep in human blood.
So, Russia instead manufactured a neat little trap for Tel Aviv. Remember what happened in December 2015? Yes, Turkey was used as a lab rat by the CIA in order to test Russia’s reactions at that moment in time, not only in Syria but in Ukraine too. We all know what Russia did – it severed the link between Turkey and its proxies in Syria and started the process of implosion. Takfiri groups were merging, disbanding, or just straight up massacring each other. The “FSA” multi-layered pyramid started to crumble. Turkey had been removed from the game. It was invited (forced via leverage of economic sanctions and the threat of ending Turkish Stream project, thus leaving Erdogan to the fate of the Gulenists) by Russia to mop up its mess in the North of Syria and end Tel Aviv’s little “Rojava“ project. Turkey was forced to start the process of rebranding Nusra into “moderate” FSA troops and to transfer them to the “Euphrates Shield” forces. This is still ongoing today, although it’s not simple and Erdogan has problems inside Turkey to deal with at the same time.
In other words, Turkey’s room to manoeuvre was reduced in size, and not voluntarily, but because Turkey (whether it was forced to by NATO or not) tried to raise the stakes but failed to secure the needed chips beforehand. It backfired on the West, big time. Hello S-400. So now Israel has tried the same thing, essentially because it had no choice. I wrote the following on 10.05.18:
Russia has a wide range of options to bring Israel to heel, but none of them involve aggression. Netanyahu was at the Immortal Regiment march today in Moscow, and this is also a sign of weakness. AIPAC might control the US, but that lobbying sh*t won’t fly in Russia.
— Ollie Richardson (@O_Rich_) May 10, 2018
Thus, if follows from this that Russia knew that sooner or later Israel would make a mistake. And in order for the mistake to arrive, Russia needed to show patience. Does this mean that Russia waited for 15 troops to die? Certainly not. But to put things into context – 27 million Soviet people died during WW2, and it was the cost for liberation. War is war. People die in war. And troops know the danger they put themselves in when they sign up and are deployed.
Again, I stress, being outside observers who want to stop children being bombed and Anglo Saxon aggression, it is frustrating to see Israel walk all over international law and to sh*t on Syrian soil with impudence, but aggression was never the right response. The two occasions when the SAA did give Israel a little slap (February and May, 2018 – authorised by Moscow) was part of a deliberate plan to keep Israel honest; to show Tel Aviv that it risks losing much more than it gains by remaining in the Syrian “game”. And so Israel gave Russia the perfect pretext to give Syria the S-300. Israeli can’t complain to Russia about this, because of behind the curtain affairs that I will not discuss here. Tel Aviv accepts its punishment, and now pressure has indeed been taken off the S-400. By the way, many social media “experts” were flapping around like headless chickens, demanding Putin to nuke Tel Aviv, then 5 hours later demanding to send every SAM system under the sun. Here is what I said immediately after the IL-20 incident:
Remember what I said about Syria being the “high stakes” arena? Well #Israel just tried to raise the stakes without having the necessary chips. This is why working within the framework of international law trumps chaotisation. Turkey was brought to heel, and now Israel is next.
— Ollie Richardson (@O_Rich_) September 18, 2018
So I guess the question that is on people’s minds is: “Why didn’t Russia give the S-300 to Syria earlier, say, in 2011?”. The answer: without the Minsk Agreements, Russia’s actions in Syria simply couldn’t be possible. I.e., the S-300 constitutes a threat to Israel. And in geopolitics the ability to use the threat that something poses as a deterrent, rather than actually using the deterrent itself, is a very powerful mechanism. Knowing that the Syrian war would last approximately 10 years, Russia milked every piece of leverage it had to influence the behaviour of the belligerent parties. One should never ever use an Ace just like that, failing to fully utilise its potential. The S-300’s time came on September, 2018.
By the way, I will say that the story with the IL-20 is extremely bizarre. The only plausible explanation, in my opinion, is that what we are told is just a narrative for public consumption. Russian troops died, and Israel stabbed Russia in the back by using the plane as a human shield, but the exact circumstances we will never know. Now Israel is faced with a choice: if it tries to bomb Syria in the same way that it has been doing, then the SAA will respond in a much stronger way than it did before (and Israel will suffer more embarrassment as a result). This takes pressure off Russia to deliver some big hit to please social media entertainment seekers.
The IDF cannot risk using the F35 and flying it into an ambush, and Lockheed most certainly won’t want the PR disaster. But now Israel will be kept honest, and the token airstrikes on “Hezbollah warehouses” will cost Tel Aviv much more than they did before. Remember – the “multipolar order” that is so highly spoken about is, in reality, a transition away from “buying” the ability to wage war and prop up one’s economy, to cooperation and the mutual investment in economies, based on a joint vision of the future.
I guess this article can be summarised as: everything the Kremlin does is done for a reason. In the meantime, enjoy Putin’s masterclass. In order to have peace, someone has to stop shooting. Russia is strong enough to take that burden upon itself and to set the example for everyone else.
This all feels so right. It paints a picture of Russia acting as a therapist within a group of ego driven maniacs. The maniacs have to really stretch to comprehend the depth of sanity that is offered them.
hahahaha I like this interpretation. Russia indeed tries to save them from themselves, but you can’t make the horse drink the water ;)
So true – you can’t make the horse drink the water. The insanity/ego just seems to grow as the horse staggers around driven mad by dehydration.
Thank you Ollie for a factual, lucid and clear article explaining what is going on in Syria (and Ukraine) and why Russia acts the way it does with a West/Israel that doesn’t know what is good for it.
I agree 99% with this article. The 1% that I don’t agree with is the “Anglo Saxon” tar brush. I’m an Anglo Saxon and certainly do not agree with the Anglo Zionist agenda. Make of that what you will Saker. I’m ex British forces who served during the cold war. That was a very interesting time and the Soviet Union and what it stood for then was a real threat to my way of life. Not so now. Russia has become the voice of reason whilst the West has become totally irrational seeking expansionism more so by military means.
I know not many in western society will understand the view I have and most are just pawns of the MSM propaganda machine, but please don’t paint the ordinary and ignorant Anglo Saxon with the same brush you would the Anglo Zionists. People are slowly beginning to awaken. And as an armchair observer to what is happening in todays world I (and many other Anglo Saxons I suspect) are trying our best to educate people to the reality of todays world.
I bless Putin and his seemingly infinite patience with the constant challenges he and the people of the free world face when opposed by the western zionists. I pray (and I am an atheist so take that as you may) that he wins out without the bloodshed that would be brought upon us all if not for somebody with the moral compass that he has.
I like your comment, but if you do not mind, and I quote you: “… interesting time and the Soviet Union and what it stood for then was a real threat to my way of life…”. My sort of “nasty” question is: Really?
Your way of life is just the perception that your brain was fed by the propaganda.
My comment: I worked with mostly Englanders: some from Glasgow (not Scotts), Londoners and from Manchester and one from Wales. The thing that really puzzled me was the silly: “timed light in the hallway”. They had to be really quick on the stairways so they could still have the light before they got to their apartment. I often wondered, if this is the life of the people who ruled half of the World, then my god.
I also worked with people from the Eastern block, and what a difference: “everything paid for by the state, cheap apartments, life and everything else was free”. They did not have the fancy life as portrayed by the Hollywood, but they had simple life which was worry free with all taken care of.
My 5 cents.
Reply to Anonius on September 30, 2018 · at 11:41 am EST/EDT
Dear Anonius … Sock it to ’em, laddie. The ‘time switches’ on the landings if you were lucky. Then there are the bleedin’ gas meters and bread and marg for lunch. I’ve lived through such times and deeply resent cultural snobbery. And similarly in reply to FB. But there’s no such thing as an “Anglo Saxon” alive today. There are Brits, English, Irish, Scots and Welsh, Londoners, Glaswegians, Brummies, Scousers, Dubliners, Southrons, Northerners, Sassenachs and Teuchters. More or less invented by Gildas le Sage (circa 494-570 AD), originaire de la Bretagne insulaire et son co-religionnaire anglo-saxon Bède le Vénérable (circa 672-735 AD), the Anglo-Saxons died with Harold I on the field of Battle at Hastings 1066. Thereafter the sovereign and his nobles – from Normandy, Brittany, Anjou, Mayenne. Poitou- spoke Norman French. Following the cultural shock of conquest, the island kingdom changes language and culture. From 1200, Anglo-Saxon was no longer uttered, but what scholars call early Middle English. spoken after the Norman Conquest until the late 15th century. In addition this language – which had deep roots in Anglo-Saxon and was much talked about – was part of a plurilinguistic set that characterizes medieval England where one could hear Welsh, Cornish, Gaelic languages – Scottish and Irish – along with derivatives of the Scandinavian dialects. Thus the beginning of the Anglo-Norman period puts an end to the Anglo-Saxon civilization stricto sensu.
But as archaeologist Catherine Hills of Cambridge says in her book Origins of the English (Duckworth 2013), summarizing the views of many modern historians, according to which attitudes towards the Anglo-Saxons – and therefore the interpretation of their culture and history – are “more dependent on contemporary political and religious theology than on the basis of scientific historical evidence”. Apparently, the first manual to teach French to the children of English high society dates from 1250. So that the Anglo-Norman aristocracy – including royal children – became bilingual, with Middle English increasingly their main language.
At the beginning of the 14th century, several writers of the time, such as John Trevisa from Cornwall, observed how English aristocrats must learn French as a second language. Although the French they learned was still a local dialect rather different from the langue d’oïl practised in Paris. Edward I, (1239-1307) nicknamed Longshanks and Malleus Scottorum (“The Hammer of the Scots”), grew up in the period when this Middle English language became dominant among the nobility and he had a downright nationalistic politics throughout his reign. He even wanted to call himself Edward IV, in recognition of the first three Anglo-Saxon kings of that name. The Edict of Expulsion, in 1290, which ordered the expulsion of all the Jews of England, was promulgated during the reign of this monarch. The first large Jewish communities came to England in 1066. They will not return until the accession of Oliver Cromwell (1599-1658).
Edward II (1284-1387), Edward III (1312-1377) and Richard II (1367-1399) were all bilingual, English being probably a second language for all. But as it is highly unlikely that Geoffrey Chaucer – whose boss and brother-in-law is none other than John of Gaunt, (1340-1399), the Duke of Lancaster and the father of Henry IV – produces a complex English poetry for the royal court in a language that these kings could not read, it is very clear that they were all equally literate in English at this stage. Richard II was probably taught to read and write in English by his preceptor, Simon Burley. Indeed in 1381 in Smithfields, London during the Revolt of the Peasants and only fourteen years old, the young king had to address directly to the crowd of the rebels who, they, would not have understood much French.
The first example of something written in English by an English king comes from the pen of Henry V (1386-1422), His father Henry IV (1367-1413) could be, indeed, the first English king to speak broken or pidgin French or even to speak English without a strong French accent, Since it was his mother tongue – the child not being raised in the court as a royal prince : he was only the Duke of Lancaster until he overthrew King Richard II. I constantly upbraid the French for their intellectual sloth in the way they misuse this expression Anglo-Saxon (for obvious chauvinistic reasons !). Here’s a translation from the French wikipedia piece on the subject :
“At present, the term Anglo-Saxons tends to be used offhandedly to designate English-speaking peoples from Great Britain, including those of the United States, English-speaking Canada, Australia, and the United States. New Zealand, although most of the English-speaking inhabitants of these countries are not or more of Anglo-Saxon ethnic origin, that is to say from England or more widely from the United Kingdom. A clumsy use of this term, popularized by the English newspaper The Economist, could be misperceived by these populations. In addition, historians, supported by the work of geneticists have shown that the Germanic groups settled in England were mixed with the Celtic natives (especially in Yorkshire where a Celtic language has been perpetuated rather late). Later, this region, as well as other parts of England were subjected to a significant Danish-Norwegian colonization in the Viking era. Subsequently, the conquest of England and part of Great Britain by William the Conqueror generated a strong migratory current from the continent (including Normandy) to this country that deeply marked the island society (institution of feudalism, constitution of chivalry in the dominant classes of society and chivalric values, typical of the continent, introduction of monumental Norman architecture). The language itself has been profoundly modified, so if the old English is sometimes called Anglo-Saxon with some relevance, it is not the same thing for the Middle English idioms which succeed it after the conquest and which knows no other qualifier, so strong is the influence of Norman and French. The Anglo-Saxon term played a similar role in the countries that claim this origin to “our ancestors the Gauls” in France, the founding myth of modern nationalism. It was a question of basing national unity on an ethnic notion”. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Saxons#Identité.
Brushing off and jumping around the most sensible issue, the S-300.
This “influence politics”, “balancing powers” bs, is not an answer. The devil is in the detail.
If Turkey, Saudi, India, Greece could get S-300/400, why could Syria, Iran not get them pre-paid until Iran invented their own?
Why do Lavrov, Shoigu say the new S-300 supply is for 100% protection of Russian servicemen, but with attention of the publics focus on Israel´s 200 attacks Kremlin hurry to say, for Syria´s defences also.
Kremlin´s latest meetings with “equal partners” to divide the cake and make agreements with all other parties than Syria and Iran, is another sign.
The case is, there is and was no reason for not supplying S-300 to Assad other than Kremlin´s maintaining own “influence” in Syria with their “equal partners” Israel, US, Germany, Turkey and France,
Hmmm…if I’m an F16 pilot, i am already targeted, missile enroute to me and i purposefully change course to use a plane with a larger profile to absorb that inbound missile – then admittedly, i am going to have to go look up the definition of “indirectly”.
if i choose to kill 15 people rather than say, simply eject – well – i dont have to look up the meaning of the word “vicious”.
we used to give medals to the guy that dove onto the hand grenade to save his squad. the guy that threw his “friend and ally” onto the hand grenade to shield himself didnt get as many medals. (at least thats how it used to be…)
i am to believe the evasive trajectory was some sort of random, top gun, zig-zag and either the zag or the zig randomly happened to “indirectly” place the F16 behind its patsy?
There is extra complexity to the situation. A UK Tornado took off from Cyprus shortly before and flew to Syrian airspace, and a French ship fired missiles at unknown targets. It looks as though these may have been cover to allow the Russian il-20 to be destroyed without direct blame being pinned on any one of them. However, Russia knows it is better to deal with the organ grinder and ignore the trained monkeys.
that may be – but surely that complexity is for outside consumption (as you suggest) and was not part of the simple, deliberate logic of the F16 pilot at the time of the engagement?
What you say is true, but fact is, an Israeli pilot, flying an Israeli jet didn’t fire an Israeli missile at a Russian plane, thus, it remains an indirect act.
But still, Russias response was more than I had anticipated or hoped for, even. I thought they would put down the hammer and issue a stern warning to Israel that THEIR Anti-Air installations, which are much more advanced and superior in every single way to the ones used by the SAA, will now target the Israeli planes as soon as they take off and shoot them out of the sky if they come within a certain distance of Russian planes.
But, this response is much, much better than that. First of all it does not require Russia to issue threats like the loons in Washington always do at the risk of them backfiring, should Israel not respect the newly formed boundaries and Russia not enforcing a punishment. Second it gives the control of the S300s to Syria and thus, the responsibility and more importantly, no shackles attached. Not to mention that Russia is limited in location, the SAA controls the vast majority of Syria, so these S300s could be anywhere. The US, UK, France and all the rest of the terrorist rogue states know Russia would never, ever shoot down one of their jets, but the Syrians aren’t so reserved. By giving the S300s to Syria, it’s not just the Israelis who have been grounded, but all the rest of the terrorist air forces as well. As dumb and incompetent as they are, they all know the F35 is a pile of junk, so these flying trash cans can’t fly either, not just because of the mountain of technical problems, but they can’t risk an F35 being so much as shot at by a Syrian S300, which should not be able to see the damn thing in the first place, if one is then shot down, it would just be the cherry on top of the gigantic turd of a PR disaster, which would sink the entire program and the sales along with it. Who’d want to buy an overly expensive garbage can which can be shot down by outdated, cheap as hell (at least, much, much cheaper than the plane itself or modern SAM’s) tech? The F22s are much too valuable to risk them being shot down, not only are they the most advanced jets they have, but they are few and much too expensive to replace, which is now impossible, since they shut down the program without having a decent plane to replace it with. The older models are akin to lambs ripe for slaughter to an S300.
Long story short, the Russians have just established what is effectively a no fly zone without doing it themselves, ever publicly declaring it a no fly zone or ever even speaking of such a thing as a no fly zone, but still, everyone involved got the message and nobody can complain that Russias ally finally got something they have requested years ago, they are completely justified in supplying the S300 to Syria.
Can you provide a justification for why the Russians plan to provide the Saudi Wahhabis with anti-tank guided missiles, heavy flame systems, grenade launchers and Kalashnikov AK-103 assault rifles https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/06/01/563526/Saudi-Arabia-Russia-missile-system-S400-Yemen-United-States-patriot
No justification, but strategy. It’s an ugly move, but it does bite into the MIC Petrodollar cycle the US so desperately needs for profit. And it gives Russia the cash to keep fighting the bigger Orcs. Do you think the US will sanction Saudi Arabia as they do all other nations that dare buy the S-400?
The same justification as US selling military goods to Third Reich in WWII.
On the other hand, what’s the diff, will they actually learn how to use the stuff? The assumption is that in all likelihood KSA will not be at war with Russia. In the end you deal with it when the time comes. When it all fails, I am sure that there is a “kill switch somewhere”
The weapons they sold to Saudi Arabia are either defensive in nature, or small weapons not suitable for their style of warfare, which is cowardly bombing school children with American made cluster bombs, the use of which is considered a war crime.
If Russian made weapons end up in the hands of terrorists on Syrian soil, the Russians will know where they came from, so they have no option to give them to ISIS or Al Qaeda.
Saudi Arabia is one of the most important allies of the US. If the Russians can get the Saudis to reduce their arms purchases from the US, the sting will be felt immediately. When the Saudis then find out that the S400 is not only superior to anything the US has ever produced, but also able to detect any US made planes, the US arms industry will experience a setback of enormous proportions. Not to mention the psychological impact it will have on the Saudis, they might soften their stance on threatening friends of Moscow like Iran. Iran is getting ever more cosy with Russia, when the arms deals start rolling to Teheran, Saudi Arabia would think twice about attacking or provoking a technologically superior ally.
Long story short, the weapons and weapons systems the Russians provide the Saudis are inconsequential for Moscow or their allies in the region, but have a chance to weaken the US, their stance in the region and world wide and put a dent in their arms sales. Not saying it’s likely, but it’s a possibility, and it costs the Russians nothing, in fact, they get paid billions for it.
Win, win, win, win for them, without much risk, if any at all, to damage either their reputation, or their relationships with friendly countries who are opponents of Saudi Arabia.
So yes, keep on extracting wealth from the Saudi terrorists via arms deals, as long as they can’t use these arms against allies or innocents, like the Yemeni civilian population.
ok – guess im gonna have to go look up meaning of “indirect”.
but maybe we can agree on “deliberate”.
ok – guess looks like i need a refresher on the meaning of “indirect”. i have a dictionary around here somewhere…
i will settle for “deliberate”.
Any F 22 that has crashed or is shut down can not be replaced. The production line is closed.
The various opposition groups/ terrorist outfits/ caliphate fighters have enjoyed on and of the benefits of the coalition air forces, 16 according to one count. They are now all concentrated in Idlib, awaiting either redeployment outside Syria or extermination. Why this has to take another 3 years is beyond my limited understanding.
Not defending or placing blame on anyone, it is quite possible that the pilot just did missile evading maneuver without regard of a larger plane in vicinity. Most often people act in a stressful situation instinctively and for a fighter-pilots instinct===training.
What evading maneuver or stressful situation are you talking about?…Major Konashenkov, in his latest briefing with electronic visual data from S-300 added, clearly shows one of the four Israeli aircrafts approaching the IL-20 totally on purpose, so as to cover itself plus the other three from the scuadron….Then, if they instinctively were maneuvering to evade themselves from the objective of Syrian AD, why they remained in the same place for about 50 minutes, instead of going to Israeli territory asap, obstructing the rescue operation of the Russian aircraft?
The fact is, as the Russians have clearly assesed at all levels required, MoD, MFA and Presidency of the RF, the Israeli aircrafts DELIBERATELY placed themselves amongst the IL-20 and Syrian AD to cover themselves and then, not satisified with that fechory, remained in the zone of rescue operation for longer time than it would acceptable for an error or “instinctive” action…..Period.
An obvious possibility for the aircraft remaining after the shoot-down would be to test the Russian defenses. Presumably these defenses should be significant in Latakia. Israel also may have wanted to provoke the Russians into launching S400 missiles at the attacking group so as to test Israeli counter-measures. In fact, there was a report of S400 launch during the attack. See the comments following this tweet from Syrian Strategic Researches
Yes I agree with you imaginative and as for the other questions placed at the beginning of the article I would say this:
1. any armed aircraft in the near vicinity puts Hmeymim in direct danger as the Russians cannot know if it will attack until it does/does not, and
2. Just how does the use of glide bombs and missiles directed at Syrian territory fail to violate Syrian airspace?
Excellent piece. A perfect expression of content for the 101st cushioned sofa & keyboard warrior brigade who demand something must be done, preferably killing other people, and now.
Absorbing blows and reacting at a time and in a way the favors yourself is a stronger response than reacting immediately in a way your opponent wants.
BTW what is the training time for S-300 systems to fully active operational state? My guess is 6 months. The S-300s (with IFF so not expeort versions) are coming in now and will have to be operational immediatelt to prevent Israel taking one or more out. Therefore, the Syrian crews were started on their training ~6 months ago.
Anonymous, the Syrian crews have already been trained, that was part of the preparation from the original agreement that the Isreali’s scuppered when they ran like frighten rabbits to Moscow.
I think the original announcement by the Russian military mentioned this, or perhaps it was added into the first news reports
The system was designed to be operated by conscripts from CCCP. Nothing fancy to operate it.
2 weeks training !
It’s what is stated in the link provided by Saker with the full capabilities of the system.
The original system was ordered in 2013 and the crews were trained then. The S300 was originally developed in USSR, but comparisons are pointless as the missiles have changed radically and so has the detection, guidance and support systems.
The “Two-State Solution” is so NOT going to happen. It has been talked about for over 30 years, and while everyone else is talking, the Zionist Entity has been expanding with more settlements on the West Bank, more villages and olive groves etc. bulldozed.
And the Zionist Entity will never elect a government willing to come to a real peace with the Palestinians. Any “peace” they would offer would be limited to the Palestinian “state” being some isolated Bantustans on the West Bank, not a viable state. The underlying Zionist ideology precludes this. There have been several Zionist governments over the past few decades, and none have been serious about halting the settlements, let alone come to a genuine peace with the Palestinians.
They said the reunification of the Korean peninsula would never happen either. But of course, these processes take time, maybe more time than you and I will be on this planet for.
The Korean peninsula is a very different situation given that both peoples are Korean and want to unite. The zionists are not Arabs and want all of palestine (and more) for a Jewish state.
Israel will have to be compelled through war or collective international pressure to work towards genuine peace.
Blue, the majority of Zionists are not Arabs but there are many Arab Jews, and I have met a few who would be quite happy to live in peace among other Arabs — as they did in the old days before the synthetic modern Western Anglo Zio Capitalist implant called Israel was imposed on the ME and defended by the AZC.
The feelings of the few Arab Jews that I have talked to range across the spectrum — from anger that Israel has destroyed their “good old days in the old country, Iraq”; through nostalgia at having to cultivate such an arid land which can only produce small watermelons when in Iraq one dug and found water; to Arab Jews who had no regrets in the new country but retained a natural, neighbourly manner when conversing with an Arab same as with one of the Chosen.
Such people would be happy with a One State Solution called Palestine — as in the old days, when European Jews used to travel to the U$A to collect money “for our Palestinians”.
I think you’re right, Ollie, about the zionists having to make peace with the Palestinians and the rest of the Arabs, since the zionist colonial project in Palestine has no more prospect of stable, long-term survival than that other racist lunacy, apartheid SAfrica had.
Apart from anything else, who is going to subsidise and arm and shield the zioentity-in-Palestine once the US definitively enters its own collapse-of-USSR moment; sometime pretty soon, inevitably?
Rather than two states, with the ziP actually consenting to give up seized territory, my hunch is that the likelier outcome, after the current generation of zionist lunatics has died off in the Levant, is that a generation will arise eventually who will be more open to the idea of dumping the zionist lunacy, and just getting along with their Palestinian neighbours peaceably, in a single democratic, multi-confessional state, with no racist discriminations. Somewhere like – oh, I dunno – Syria, say…?
To those who insist that such dreams are impossible, can I just point out, for a single example of several which might be adduced, that in the six counties in the north of Eire which are still currently occupied by the crumbling fag-end of the English imperial state, the ukstate, the rising generation of native-born people there are coming round steadily to an abandonment of the warring taigs-versus-prods pattern of the past; and even towards the idea of Eire getting re-united by mutual agreement of all the people on the island. The May regime’s utterly chaotic handling of the brexit negotiations seems quite likely to hasten that process. Thus the whirligig of time really does bring in not only his revenges, but also his reconciliations…
Of course, these dreams rests on the hope that the Synergising Global Crises now getting into their stride – population overshoot; the extinction event; the peak-everything crisis (particularly peak energy); climate shift, etc. – will allow time for these necessary emotional evolutions to happen in any human societies. Judging by the way the SGCs have stuck so closely to the timetable sketched out by the Meadows team’s original ‘Limits To Growth’, and are confirmed to be dead on schedule by ‘TLTG – The Thirty-Year Update’, there simply may not be enough time for organised human societies to come to some peaceable, egalitarian arrangement in the Levant before the SGCs just sweep away all stable human organisations.
This seems to be completely and utterly irrelative of 2500 years of trends specifically on this very relationship, though it has shown to be a very reliable proxy for… everybody else!
Just because your cultural values do, or do not recognize a behavioural trend towards group lunacy, does not necessarily mean that a different group, with different values priorities than you (potentially), sees this as the most relevant factor in their behaviours.
Therefore, I have to say, the viability of
, is painfully ludicrous, in a way like being doubled-over, laughing with cynicism, is so painful.
The reason is that, in this currently existing enforced value set, which exists in the occupied Palestinian lands, and agencies throughout the world, specifically that of systematically undermining values aimed at augmenting the overall good for everybody, to garner extra-normal profits for a cohesive secretly gaming collective, thereby causing the breakdown of adherence of participation in behaviours augmenting the overall good (thus the negative sum), is greatly enabled by the greater subjugation of the human empathic response. Thus, those with the more virulently embedded socialization of de-empathification will prosper more, and in a cultural evolution, tend to move the entire group towards that value set.
But, it could be, just lack of the knowledge of objective trend-supporting facts.
Recommend: “The Controversy of Zion“, by Douglas Reed as the golden seal of starting points to acquire such knowledge. In good faith, I recommend taking the maximum precautions in acquiring such information, as it is extremely likely that such access is monitored, vigorously.
For a contemporary contributor, I am amazed at the publications of Israeli scholar, and author, Yuval Harari! His material, still available online, is as good as anything thing for enabling a global geo-political perspective. Therefore I recommend to you, and all reading this comment.
*** The Controversy Of Zion ***
” a generation will arise eventually who will be more open to the idea of dumping the zionist lunacy …””
This is delusional.
The Zionist “lunacy” is what has driven the creation of the Jewish state from the very beginning.
The so-called “lunacy” is the raison d’etre of the Jewish state and the Jewish state has become the raison d’etre of the Jewish religion.
U R dreaming!!!!
They will never give up their religion.
The state *is* the religion.
The samecan be said of the two-state solution. It’s time has come and gone and I believe will not come again. Because it is as atavistic as the Zionist state. The latter will have to be smashed in some way from outside before the Pals get any kind of political liberation.
Rhisart, Ollie, The article and comment are measured and most useful BUT we are talking about the Jewish religion and culture, and its manipulation over the course of it’s entire existence by a small pharisitic cult which wants to rule over everyone else. Much of its religious and cultural practice revolves around inculcating in the next generation a deep sense of entitlement and rejection, of superiority and of destiny. Nothing going on in the world today can be properly understood without understanding the nature of Israel at that level.
Your “Rather than two states, with the ziP actually consenting to give up seized territory, my hunch is that the likelier outcome, after the current generation of zionist lunatics has died off in the Levant, is that a generation will arise eventually who will be more open to the idea of dumping the zionist lunacy, and just getting along with their Palestinian neighbors peaceably, in a single democratic, multi-confessional state, with no racist discriminations. Somewhere like – oh, I dunno – Syria, say…?” misses that critical point. To fully understand it, and Israel’s probable reactions to adversity I suggest extensive reading on the nature of the mental disorder that is narcissism. That reading leaves me with the distinct impression that The Samson option is not a threat but a probable outcome if Israel is facing defeat and left with no way out. Leaving it a way out means having to again confront the zionist problem when the culture has rebuilt it’s strength. 2500 years or more of history demonstrates that pattern of behavior and there is no reason to expect change during the current iteration. The cult has learned, and history teaches us that if merely defeated it will learn further. Right now it has control of most,, if not all, western nations through corruption of the democratic process. Only Putin’s leadership of Russia stands in the way of it’s quest for global control, most likely through the mechanism of the UN following a global economic collapse which it is engineering via control of global finance and banking systems. In short, create a crisis and propose the solution which suits the desired outcome.
Rational responses to external stimuli should not be counted on, and any long term planning based on the expectation that they can be is optimistic at best, and more likely deluded.
What is SGC?
What is TLTG?
You are comparing the unification of a single ethnic people from the same family who were artificially divided by corrupt world ideologies at the time with the Western Jewish Zionist colonization of Arab Muslim Palestine ?
Actually half-agree, the problem is a dual one, one is very simply the property question, of who owns what land, the second one is that the two state solution leaves the IDF intact.
Both are solved by a Federal state of Palestine with a united defense force consisting of two states, Israel under its original borders (made by the British). There can be no expulsion of people, or ethnic cleansing of any kind, but the property question has to be settled by Federal courts, reparations included.
As a section of the Israeli population will find this unacceptable and go back to America, there is vacated land simplifies some aspects of the legal process. The federation protects Arabs in Israel and Jews in Palestine. This is the only long term solution, the IDF needs to be integrated into Federal army where only one half is stationed in the Israeli part and the rest stationed in Palestine and vice versa. However, under guidelines, the police, local criminal law,education etc should be left in state hands.
Of course War Criminals need to be dealt with along with their organizations, but that is a widespread tasks within the remains of the US alliance system. None of us can be free without dealing with our own War Criminals. It is possible on this and other questions to settle publicly a popular agenda for a future muiltpolar world capable of being imposed by the people themselves.
Once Israel becomes vulnerable I believe their will be an exodus of war hawks which should make things easier for good people in Israel to change their state, but I do believe Federation would be imposed externally through international Law once the American empire falls. People should be aware that the mass killing of civilians by careless application of military power is not illegal within a country, but is a serious crime against humanity when the territories in question are occupied — that is sufficient for the UN to act under the Nuremberg Principles.
“The “Two-State Solution” is so NOT going to happen”
I also believe that the leaders of the Jews – and I am not referring to Netanyahu – know that Palestine is going to become Palestinian once more.
I suspect their plan was to move the Jews to Crimea and to push the local people out. I mean, everyone knows that Russia is not short of land. I think that is why the media won’t ever let us forget that Russia “grabbed” Crimea. :)
The question now arises as to where the Jews will end up. I am all for them being sent to the USA – that is where most of the leaders of the Jews hang out. Whether they will be welcome or not is immaterial.
The question now arises as to where the Jews will end up.
There is an area of Patagonia several times the size of Israel, mostly in Argentina but also Chile, bought by some very rich Jews and policed entirely by Israeli forces and off-limits to the natives.
The idea of promised land is a bit of a fraud when only a small minority believes in that sort of nonsense. When America collapses or suffers a survivable hard landing, the Jewish enterprise in Palestine will no longer be viable, but maybe this one will work.
The two state solution is a Western myth in order for people to legitimize the Zionist occupation of Palestine.
The Palestinians will never accept living as refugees without returning home to their lands they were kicked out of only a few decades ago and the Jews will never want to stop expanding.
The Western European Zionist Jews must be expelled by force back to their European and Russian regions and the Palestinians need to return to their lands……anything less than this is unacceptable from a political and religious stand point.
Muslims will never accept the Western Zionist Jewish occupation and colonization forces and they will be in a state of war even if it takes a thousand years to expel them.
Your Western “reality” will never be acceptable to Muslims around the world. No Western power, Russia or China will change this reality no matter how much they are drowned in the Zionist Western economic system.
This is the reality that your Western brain for some reason cannot comprehend.
I’ve been saying this since the death of the Oslo process in the mid-nineties. Clinton refused to discourage Israeli settlements on the WB–therefore no possible two-state solution. No American government since Carter had had even the slightest interest in a peace agreement in Israel/Palestine. Today, it is over–there is no chance whatsoever of anything other than complete subjugation of Palestinians as long as Washington is the seat of Empire.
“Q) Does Israel violate Syrian airspace?
What utter garbage.
Israel fires missiles (and gliding bombs) into Syrian airspace. Whether the aircraft that launch those munitions do so from Syria, Lebanon, Israel or Paraguay is completely irrelevant.
I don’t think I can face reading any further in this article, since it begins with such a blatant misrepresentation.
You “forgot” to mention that Tel Aviv coordinated it’s bank of targets with Moscow beforehand, and when Moscow sees that it’s some abandoned warehouses where Hezbollah stores hay for cows, Moscow says “okay, go ahead, feel free to waste your missiles on laughable targets”.
It is not in the legal power of either Israel or Russia to allow Israeli attacks on targets in Syria. The Rusians may have coordinated them with the Israelis beforeheand, but if so they are accessories to the crime. Russia cannot give Israel permission for an unprovoked attack on a third sovereign state. All it did – and all it could do – was to tell the Israelis they would not get any trouble from the Russians.
The agreement between Assad and Putin is clearly thus: Russia can act with power of attorney in deconfliction, reconciliation, policing, de-mining, air defenses, medical, food and water supply, drawing of De-escalation Zones and whatever goals foster Syrian sovereignty, all its borders, safety passage for its citizens and elaboration of negotiations with combatants, training and leadership of its troops as Russian generals or Putin sees fit. All subject to Assad’s overruling if and when he sees fit.
How do we know all this? We have followed all the events and reactions to actions of Russia by Syria.
There was a hiccup or two over certain military operations. Never over these policies. Astana and Sochi are fully endorsed by Assad.
Russia does everything honoring Syrian integrity and sovereignty. It is a most extraordinary relationship. Syrian government top to bottom and its people adore the Russians. They know Putin is able to take Syria’s strongest ally, Iran and Syria’s strongest enemy Turkey (Muslim Brotherhood ideology, with al Nusra and AQ groups as proxies, plus a formidable military) and form a triangular alliance for the purpose of holding off the US-Israel-Saudi-UAE efforts to destroy Syria. Russia also deals with Kurdish claims on Syria. This has led to talks between Assad and some of the Kurds for resolution that will be incorporated in a new Constitution and sharing of oil revenues.
Assad has given enormous powers to Russia. It has paid off hugely for the Syrian government, its military and its people.
“The agreement between Assad and Putin is clearly thus”
Perhaps Putin will ink a similar deal with the Saudis to limit their Houthi barbecue to 1000 per day with the new heavy flame system provided by Russia.
When you state:
“How do we know all this? We have followed all the events and reactions to actions of Russia by Syria.”
Are you implying that you are not talking for yourself but fro an organization?
In that case, what organization are you talking on behalf of, if we can know?
We is the collective voices who are concerned and keep a daily self-education going.
Thus, we have collected information from many sources and understand what is going on.
Just look at the meetings when the two leaders meet. Read their words. Observe the video statements.
“Russia does everything honoring Syrian integrity and sovereignty.”
Putin seems clearly the enemy of Syria’s elected President Bashar al-Assad—and the worst kind of enemy, having postured as an ally, then twisting 180 degrees and sabotaging Assad’s strategy for the penultimate phase of the Syrian civil war—the liberation by Syrian loyalists of Turkish-controlled and terrorist-ruled Idlib Province. This sabotage, a Putin tactic familiar from his betrayal of Novorossiya in Donbass, was plotted on September 17, 2018 during a bilateral summit in Sochi, where the Russian President and Turkish leader Recep Erdogan slashed out a pact for their own exclusive control of Syria’s northern border region.
Bashar al-Assad, elected president of Syria, has been conspicuously absent from these summits, although Syrian sources claim he was involved in preliminary discussions. Yet regardless of Russia’s “intent”—which is today a target of scrutiny, tepid adulation and fierce condemnation—and regardless of possible if unlikely peaceful outcomes, the overt shunning of Syria’s president, and thus of Syrian national interests and the wishes of the Syrian people, does not just ring an alarm bell, it signals duplicity if not treachery on the part of Russia. That Turkey, the US, UK, France and Israel are enemies of Assad does not need repeating. But Russia’s seeming emergence into this pack of rabid hyenas surprised and disheartened many observers.
Larch: Beside the fact that when Russia entered Syria scenario, Syria as we know it had only days to live. This is why Russia, I do not doubt, “Owns Syria”, although nobody officially talks about it. This is why Russia can do whatever it wants or feels needs doing. Sort of like the case with Erdogan, if Russia really saved his butt.
Yes indeed Ollie! Russia is actually subverting the Zionist spin on the press, Zionist attacks and perfidious behaviour rhymes less and less with ordinary people, the see the true nature of the Zionist hellhole. Hence the slowly growing anti semitism (which is wrong, it should be anti-Zionism). So all Israel is doing is digging itself into a deeper and deeper hole, becoming a pariah state.
The Russians have handled this well, very well, even our MSM has acknowledged that the Russians are well regarded in Syria and generally welcomed.
I wonder how laughable Syria finds those targets when they strike Syrian troops and assets…..
Have you disagree with your assessment on that one – if I stood in the street outside your house and lobbed a rock (or God forbid, a Molotov cocktail) in through your window, you would regard it as an assault on you (a violation of your sovereignty) – and so would the law.
I felt the same way Tom as the 1st third of the article felt like an excuse for being a pussy in Russia’s Syria intervention but it kinda reverses course and is worth the read.
Thoughts: It’s my opinion that the slow and steady wins the race is the Russian way but If it used all it’s might it could end all the drama early and promote an actual reconciliation process much earlier and have saved lives and improved the situation on the ground much more to it’s advantage. Giving time and space producing stalemate waiting for your adversaries (potential partners) to implode is a waste of resources and extremely frustrating to those of us wanting true peace in our time but hey I’m an idealist.
The part of the article focusing on not wanting to make an enemy of Israel because it would jeopardize the 2 state solution was a little off. Sure government’s change but it’s not like Jeremy Corbin is ever going to become Prime Minister of Israel!. There’s a deep state in Israel as well and they are firmly committed to expanding Israel at the expense of it’s neighbours. The political situation that would need to arise to knock Israel off this course is NOT going to happen in my lifetime or those of any of our future monkey offspring! That’s an opinion of course but for that situation to happen it would try even the patience of a Russian.
Interesting that the author says that the Ukraine coup happened to forestall Russia’s help in Syria. No evidence is supplied but it makes sense and while I’m sure that the Americans were being opportunistic it certainly could have been viewed as stalling Russia. At least the timing is right.
You can’t say that Russia’s tactics haven’t been successful to date. They have managed to destroy any hope of the caliphate and keep Syria as a state intact if not whole and thwarted the entire western MIC with a few planes and minimal effort.
I’m buoyed that they stayed tough after the IL 20 downing and made some smart calculated moves in response .
The future will hold many tests to Russian patience however. First a finger then a fist then an army with knives then guns…….
“After all, what will happen to the Israeli people in the process of claiming all the stolen land back? Will they be massacred? If not, where will they go, and who will facilitate it?”
Where did they come from? It would be reasonable to suggest they go back there. Especially as, after WW2, almost all countries became perfectly safe for Jewish people.
“It’s perfectly possible that a leader will come to power in Israel one day who is in favour of peace with Palestinians/Arabs,”
One did, his name was Yitzhak Rabin.
“Let’s be honest: in our lifetimes, the two-state solution is the only REALISTIC solution.”
Never going to happen. The window for this closed long ago with the death of Rabin. Israeli laws are being changed to accommodate an Apartheid system. Democracy will be sacrificed to ensure Israel remains a Jewish State. It is irrelevant what Trump or Putin support. In any case, Trump will do whatever the Likud want.
Great article and it echoes most of my thoughts and analysis as well.
However, there is one key thing I very much disagree with, and that is the two state solution.
There is not going to be a two state solution, there never was a two state solution and there never will be a two state solution, at least, not in the way most people believe a two state solution should or would look like.
The US and Israel have always maintained that there should be a Jewish state and a Palestinian state, one being Israel and one being not Palestine. That’s right, they don’t consider Palestine to be a legitimate state, since they think that it occupied Israeli territory illegally and that Israel is the legitimate state in that location. They say the Palestinians have a state, it’s called Jordan. Ergo, there is, for them, no logical reason to maintain a “second” Palestinian state, because Jordan already exists.
Whenever you hear somebody from the Western sphere of crooks say “two state solution,” this is what they mean. There were a couple of proposals to “give” the Palestinians land, which were a complete joke and designed to be rejected by the Palestinians, to make them seem uncooperative. One recent such proposal suggested Palestinians forsake their claim on Jerusalem and get a new capital, a tiny village at the a** end of nowhere with barely 3000 people living in it. Nobody in their right mind would accept such an insult.
The two state solution is and always will be, an unrealistic, duplicitous fantasy.
As for how to solve this problem? I have no idea, but I see a lot of violence in the future, 7 decades of genocide can and will not be forgotten by the Palestinians. When the US empire crumbles – and it will, soon – Israel will not have anyone to protect it from the revenge of the Arabs they have wronged, destroyed and massacred over those last decades.
The Zionists have nobody but themselves to blame for this, they gambled on the US empire having a much longer expiration date and will lose everything. The possible outcomes are many, most end in a lot of bloodshed. There is too much bad blood. The Israelis have been indoctrinated for decades to view the Palestinians as less than human terrorists whose sole reason for being is to kill Jews. The Palestinians have been massacred for decades and have no reason to forgive and forget any of it once Israel loses it’s source of power and they can rise up and overcome this senseless slaughter, which is still going on today. There has been no gestures of good will from the Israeli side towards the Palestinians worth mentioning in 7 decades. The Palestinians only know the worst side of the Israelis, the side that watches and cheers on the sidelines while the IDF uses their children as target practice. They have no reason to show them any less in return, when able to.
This is not a good mix, not a favourable set of variables to find a peaceful and mutually beneficial solution.
The creation of Israel was an enormous mistake, not to mention illegal and justified by lies. It has brought nothing but pain and suffering to everyone involved not only in the region, but world wide. Not one good thing can be drawn from this racist project, not even for the Jews.
As such (i.e., a mistake), it will be remedied. What cannot go on, will not go on… but right – likely not in our lifetimes. Israel is an abomination, a colonial, western outpost – designed to sow discord among Arabs. It has succeeded in that (not that Arabs need much help (with a few exemptions)). But its longer-term trajectory is not sustainable. No human civilization can live in a perpetual state of war for close to 100 years. Israelis have done that for 101 yrs by now. The damage they’ve done to themselves will only lead to a huge conflict; and they will not come out on top.
I see the 2 state solution as a trap for Israel. Much like the downing of IL20 was a trap, regrettable as the loss of life was. Trap here means the perpetrator ended up in a much worse situation as before.
Ever since IL20, I have looked at Russian policies in a different light. Thinking 2 or 3 steps ahead in geopolitics is beyond my capacity. But thinking about Russia’s policies and its endgame for Israel.
What exactly is the endgame? There are so many permutations, short term and long term. But I hazard a guess that the ultimate endgame is the destruction of the Zionist entity in Israel, in which case, the 2 state solution would destroy Israel.
How can such a supremacist race tolerate a 2 state Israel/Palestine. There is no justice in the 2 state solution for Palestinians. But the goal is the destruction of the Zionists, and the Palestinians need to be patient and clever.
Two-state solution was always a lie, so in addition to being an impossibility, thewhole idea now carries a stench.
It will never happen. I think you can take that to the bank.
This is a very weak link in Ollie’s argument. To the extent that this link anchors the arguments, the arguments don’t stand.
If/when the USA starts to totter, everyrthing in the MENA will also start to totter. Forces will rush into vacuums created. Loyalties will shift, or come out into the open. Israel will be seen as a rich opportunity for any coalition that can gain control of it. The Israelis—tant pis pour eux. They can go back where they came from.
“The situation was such that if Russia downed an Israeli jet (using the tools at Hmeymim to do it), Russia would flush down the toilet all progress it has made since Putin came to power. It would be the most idiotic move imaginable and would warrant harsh criticism. Russia would become just as ugly as the Anglo Saxons are, also elbow-deep in human blood”.
(mod-to note: remark removed) If Russia shot down an Israeli jet that was trying to bomb Syria, it would merely be helping its ally Syria to exercise its legal right of self-defence.
How on earth would that “flush down the toilet all progress it has made since Putin came to power”? Would it reduce Russian production or GDP or state income or average personal wealth or pensions? No. Would it harm Russia’s ability to defend itself? No. Would it make all the jet aircraft and missiles magically vanish? No.
How on earth would shooting down an attacking Israeli aircraft render Russia “elbow-deep in human blood”? The onyl deaths would be those of one or more Israeli aircrew, who themselves would be deliberately trying to commit the ultimate international crime of unprovoked aggressive war. In other words, one or two criminals would have got what they richly deserve.
Tom Welsh, instead of pulling out sentences and critiquing them in isolation, I would prefer it if you criticised my article as a whole, retaining the overall context.
I think that you project how America behaves onto Russia and can only point to aggression as a “solution”.
There are some things that simply do not fit with the common sense. Russians have been already killed before by s.c. “partners” Turkey, the US (or some of its multiple minions) with all probability. Putin reacted in an “expected” way against ie. Turkey (he talked about being backstabbed). In the last incident he (Putin) was first considering caused by unfortunate accident. The thing is this: Putin/Russia can not afford to keep downplaying crimes against Russian perssonal in Syria, why? because this puts more danger on them. BTW I think that Russia by providing the S300 and other systems to the Syrians is acting in the right way.
While I agree with most of the piece, the notion that a “two state solution” is the only “realistic” one is risible.
The only point of establishing a Bantustaned Palestinian “state” is to allow Israel to bomb it into rubble the first time someone throws a rock over the border of the alleged “state.” Israel would love for Palestine to be considered a “state” instead of occupied and imprisoned territory.
That is, if you could find the border, since Palestine is divided up into little sections surrounded by Israeli settlers.
Regardless of how relations between Jews and Palestinians would progress if Israel and Palestine were united into a one-state solution, it is the only feasible method to defuse the problem. Over a few decades, especially with Palestinians outnumbering Jews throughout the state, most people would be forced to get on with their lives rather than perpetuate the hate. Especially if the hardline politicians on both sides were prohibited from ever being on the ballot.
The alternative is some feeble Palestinian “state” being bombed out of existence on a regular basis, until the Palestinians are finally forced into Lebanon or Jordan or Syria – which is the real goal of the Israeli elites.
Calling a “two state” solution the only “realistic” solution is nonsense. It simply bows to Israeli and US domination of the current situation. If the US and Israel agree to a two state solution, we can assume that they intend it to be the final means by which Israel gets all that it wants and the Palestinians get nothing.
As for the situation between Russia and Israel, I have said for some time that Russia is inevitably going to have to confront Israel militarily at some point to prevent Russia losing all that it has achieved in Syria. The only question is how to do so without also losing all that it has achieved in Syria. The delivery of the S-300 is a decent first step. Syria shooting down some of Israel’s planes is merely the logical outcome of that first step.
The question is: What will Israel do next? Because Israel believes the US has its back and will counter whatever Russia does. The goal is war with Iran. To achieve that goal, Hizballah in Lebanon needs to be degraded to the point where it cannot be an effective actor in an Iran war. So does Syria. That was the goal of the Syrian civil war. Russia ended that part of the plan. But Israel has not and can not give up its overall goal, and neither can the US.
So the question, again, is what comes next? Will Israel convince Trump to join it in an attack on Lebanon? Will that attack be allowed to spread to Syria? What will Russia do is the US starts an air campaign against Hizballah in Lebanon?
Russia has offered Lebanon a military cooperation agreement – not an alliance – which indicates that Russia would prefer Israel back off from Lebanon. But Russia has no explicit brief to protect Lebanon from the US and Israel. But if it does nothing, war with Iran is a virtual certainty and that would be counter to Russia’s interests, however broadly interpreted.
The point is that the US and Israel still have moves they can make to further their warmongering. Russia needs to be ready to respond carefully.
War with Iran is definitely on the table. As soon as the JCPOA was pissed on it was inevitable. Since the other upholders of the agreement have said they will abide by it the US may have to attack Iran alone without it’s Nato lapdogs or they may be waiting to put enough pressure them that they cave or some sort of attack will be blamed on Iran that makes them withdraw. Then Israel will go all in against Hezbollah.
Russia’s position in Syria and Syria itself would become extremely isolated.
I always thought that the one state solution was the smartest choice. The benefits to both the Israeli’s and Palestinian’s would be enormous but alas there is just too much bad blood there now to make that viable. Israel’s policy of making life so unbearable that the Palestinian’s want to leave or accept any deal will not work and any reconciliation where Israel gives up any of it’s settlement will not be accepted. they do not want to live next to each other or with one another. Any agreement will only be peaceful after many a generation.
I agree with a lot of the essay.
First, Russia must act in it’s own interests and has no obligation to fight anyone on behalf of anyone else.
Second, that the choosing to use force only as an absolute last resort after every possible option has been exhausted is both an effective policy and a very ethical one.
Third, that the potential to use force is in fact much more effective than the actual use of it.
Fourth, the decisions made in anger in the heat of the moment are almost always poor ones. It is always wise to stop and think logically before you act.
However, the idea that a leadership will rise in Israel that seeks peace is a very false notion. Leadership will change only when current policies bring disaster to Israel. The balance of power has to change dramatically before israel will think seriously about peace.
It is not Russia’s job to change the balance of power by itself, but the balance will indeed change and as it changes, Russian policy will adjust accordingly.
So, let’s outline, once again, what Russia’s policy vis-a-vis Israel is in Syria:
Q) Does Israel violate Syrian airspace?
Israel has violated Syrian airspace on a number of times.
Here’s one example
In the example you give the IDF used the flight route of the US along the Iraq border and disguised its radar trace, thus it blended in with US-coalition traffic. It didn’t enter Syrian airspace.
My dear Mr. Richardson . . .
What part of “deliberately firing a missile into a country from outside its borders is a violation of that country’s airspace”
. . . don’t you understand?
Well I have to disagree with you on that one. It is important to note that the IDF has breached Syrian airspace in the past to strike targets, of late this has not happened as often, because the focus has shifted back westwards, hence using Lebanon.
Although this may seem trivial, it is of interest to how the Israelis have reacted to the the gains made last year m by government forces, the Palmyra attack highlights the jittery reaction by Israel.
Israel doesn’t violate Syrian airspace, it violates Lebanese airspace. So the author states, unless I quite thoroughly misunderstood. OK, Israeli aircraft don’t enter Syrian airspace, but their missiles do. Doesn’t that qualify as a violation of Syrian airspace? What am I missing?
A copy and paste of my response to another commenter:
Tel Aviv coordinated it’s bank of targets with Moscow beforehand, and when Moscow sees that it’s some abandoned warehouses where Hezbollah stores hay for cows, Moscow says “okay, go ahead, feel free to waste your missiles on laughable targets”.
That explanation does not in any way contradict the assertion that Israel violated the Syrian air space.
Intriguing. There’s a strong assertion being made there. How was this analysed and interpreted?
Secondly, how does it fit with the comments made by the Russian MoD spokesman on only being being given prior warning in less than 10% of the IDF strikes?
Wow…Just wow. I’ll limit my remarks to pointing out the most ridiculous portions of this article.
“Q) Does Israel violate Syrian airspace?
What? The IAF routinely violates Syrian air space. By their own admission they have conducted 200+ strikes in Syria in the last few years and many of these were deep inside Syria. IAF aircraft have not limited their launch points to Lebanese airspace or international waters, they have flown directly over Syria repeatedly. But for the sake of argument, lets say that no IAF aircraft ever violated Syrian airspace, only the weapons they launched did so…So what? Whether it is the F-16 itself, or just the glide bomb or missile it launches that actually enters Syrian airspace, these are still Israeli military violations of Syria airspace, the warheads are still striking Syria.
“Q) Has Israel directly killed Russian troops?
Hmmm… I’m not sure how the author established this “fact”. Whether directly or indirectly, the Israelis are responsible for the deaths of Russian servicemen. It is the Israelis who are the driving force behind the war in Syria. The Israelis have essentially admitted that they directly support “ISIS” in Syria with air strikes, weapons, food and medical aid. If it were not for the Israelis, there would be no war in Syria today.
“Q) Does Israel put Hmeymim in any direct danger?
Where do people think all of these armed drones attacking this Russian base come from? I don’t think anyone seriously doubts that it is the US/Israel (or someone at their behest) who is directing and facilitating the drone attacks against the Russian bases in Syria. The IAF attacks in the vicinity of Russian bases puts these bases at risk by definition. This is war and when you start throwing around warheads in close proximity to someone, it puts them at risk by definition as the IL-20 tragedy shows. Secondly, the fact that there are 15 dead Russian airman pretty much establishes that the IAF is putting Russians in direct danger. Russian personnel are no embedded throughout much of the SAA and any time the IAF bombs the SAA, this puts Russians at direct risk.
But nothing in the article is so laughable as the following:
1. ” It’s perfectly possible that a leader will come to power in Israel one day who is in favour of peace with Palestinians/Arabs”.
This statement reveals that either the author has no real understanding of the Israeli state and/or its politics, or is simply another shill not to be trusted. It is IMPOSSIBLE within the present political structures of the Israeli state for any government to emerge that could honestly be viewed as being “in favour of peace”, unless of course by “peace” one means victory. Why you ask? Well it is really quite simple. The Israeli state and political system are set up by and for Jews. The political system is set up to essentially remove any political influence by Arabs, even if some Arabs have the right to vote.
There will only be political support for “peace” within Israel to the extent that the Israelis feel compelled by real military threats. When the Egyptians proved that they could mount a credible military threat in 1973, the result was a peace treaty to remove them from the conflict. The Israelis signed a peace treaty with Jordan, but Jordan is essentially an Israeli protectorate now, so that was a treaty to memorialize what Israelis see as their victory over Jordan.
2. “why jeopardise the possible emergence of a situation whereby a state of Israel can exist side by side with a Palestinian state in peace? Let’s be honest: in our lifetimes, the two-state solution is the only REALISTIC solution.”
This may be the most ridiculous statement in the entire article… The Israelis have worked consistently and diligently to prevent the possibility of a “two state solution” from the moment the Oslo Accords were signed. Those accords, the claimed intent of which was to implement this mythical two state solution, were signed in 1993, 25 years ago! Today such a two state solution is physically impossible without removing entire Israeli towns in the West Bank and transferring 10% or more of the Jewish population. No Israeli government could willingly implement such a peace deal and there is no credible military/economic pressure to force them to do so. In fact, there will never be any military/economic pressure for them to do so while the global financial system remains in Jewish hands. There is no need to worry about putting the “two state solution in jeopardy”, it has been dead from its inception. Nobody today seriously believes in this fairy tale.
I am kinda agreeing with you here…everything Israel is doing is also to promote actual war by whatever means it can against Iran. Some more Palestinians machine gunned today….just got a feeling Lavrov made a big speech at UN and is going to announce his retirement…cos it does not seem things are getting better….
Thank you for an excellent comment. Your words speak for my own reaction to this article.
Israel not only puts Russian military at Hmeimim at risk, but as clearly Major Gen. Konashenkov stated in his briefings, they put also at risk civilian aircrafts landing in that Russian base.
On the other hand, and also by Russians statements after the “incident”, we already know that not only Israel violates Lebanese and Syrian airspace, but also Syrian soil, as it proves the recently known requests from Israel to the Russians on recovering the remains of Israeli military personel fallen on ISIS territory, where they were, obviously, in no way fighting ISIS but by the side of ISIS, as they have widely recognized time ago….
The recovery of the remains of Israeli military personnel interested me. Did the Russian spokesman provide any information as to when these soldiers had died? It could be that they are recent casualties or they could date back to the Yom Kippur war,
Interesting writing style and analysis. On the plus side, the author just writes as if known facts, are known by everyone (irrespective of Western Propaganda drowning out some of these known facts). The author intellectually rises above all this awful mess, and treats reality as if it is a wargame, or a game of chess.
On the negative side the author, displays in his writing, virtually no human empathy. It as if he is an alien in outer space observing planet earth. He thinks it O.K. – for one country to lob bombs at another country, because they do not intrude on their airspace.
Lobbing bombs does indeed change the “parameters of the playground” It blows mostly innocent children’s arms and legs off – and kills their mothers – cos they just happen to be there when the bombs hit. The author doesn’t seem to care in the least about that.
The responses from Tom Welsh were Brilliant.
I disagree the greatest empathy for humanity, living and dead, is expressed by the unvarnished truth. emotional expression gets in the way, it comes in second and should be naturally expressed mainly by eyewitnesses.
I think the chess board analogy is the better approach rather than the worst one. I think you have misunderstood what the author has been saying about Israel using Lebanon as a door-way for airborne missiles. Russia cannot do what Syria can do in its self-defense.
Russia has been continually provoked by the US and its allies into taking a action that it could use to against it. Of note the only action I know that was taken by Russia directly against western allies was the elimination of the intelligence HQ they had set up in Aleppo to to aide terrorist defenses against the Syrian Army.
Russia could do this because making a fuss about it would expose the close ties of the western militarily to these terrorist mercenaries. This incident of dealing with the west shows Russia has teeth, but wisely does not bare them, and when it bites it is precise and and does not allow its actions to blow-back against the greater enterprise.
Russia is effectively fighting the empire, it is the empire that is killing all around the world not just in Syria.
I pray to God that your analysis is correct, I really do, for the sake of us all.
Very interesting article, thank you Ollie.
I think you give Israel too much benefit of the doubt. Israel is trapped by it’s own supremacist and fascist ideology, by it’s own depravity and by geographical and demographical problems. Israel is an artificial construct that cannot survive without external support and more war and growth far beyond it’s current borders (the Odd-Yinon plan). There will never be a two state solution that includes a viable Palestine. There will only be apartheid Israel/Jewistan until it is cleansed of Palestinians, Muslims and Christians, maybe save a token few “souvenirs”.
That is why the Russian decision to arm Syria with a strong air defense is such a strategic disaster for Israel. A strong, unassailable Syria, and Lebanon, defeats all Israeli plans. Netanyahu finally overstepped the limits imposed by reality. If the Syrian/Russian air defense is as strong as it seems to be, then Israel is indeed limited to it’s own air space and the Odd-Yinon plan is dead. The Russian decision to impose limits on Israel strikes at the very root of the Zionist project. This gives Russia a tremendous power, but it also makes Russia a direct target so Israel can get out of the bind. Israel is puny, but it’s reach is gigantic.
Therefore it is inevitable that Israel will push for more war globally and more attacks on Russia, directly and indirectly (of course using proxies and underhand methods). The less Israel can do so directly from within Israel, the more attacks will come outside it. Israel is tiny geographically and cannot afford a mistake that leads to modern warfare on it’s home turf. Therefore Israel will move the battlefield to Europe and Iran/Iraq and use it’s dumb US Golem for the heavy work outside and Mossad and CIA operations inside Russia.
This is a fight to the death, and Russia must be well aware of this fact. The Russian leadership and populace will now be targeted for a far higher and direct amount of assassinations and terrorist attacks etc. And the war against Iran will heat up, but again Israel and the US will only be hastening their own demise.
Netanyahu is a one trick pony. He can only attack, deceive and backstab. Aggression is all he understands, which is logical since this is the essence of Zionism.
Russia must show that it indeed means business with the Syrian air defense and that it is fully functional rather than some kind of paper tiger. We are still in a period of lull before Israel finds out the real scope of the new parameters. If they are indeed as strict as Russia has been implying, then expect the Israeli answer to be as unhinged as it is desperate. Israel cannot stop. That is the dynamic. If Israel is stopped it is over for Israel, not tomorrow, but down the road – and the Israeli leadership knows it, just as the Russian leadership knows it.
As for the timing question. I strongly suspect the fact that the Kinzhal missiles became operational recently made this move possible. I understand Kinzhal means ‘dagger’ and that is exactly what they are.
We are now contemplating possible consequences of the very skilful maneuver of Israely plane off the coast of Latakia . Very stimulating article.
In Russia itself it is possible that “Hawks” gained some ground and “Doves” lost few points .
Small but possibly significant change .
Official Russian stance on the incident — the Israelis are solely responsible. Russia responded firmly but sanely to that key fact.
This is the first reasoned and well explained piece I’ve read on the whole Russian strategy in Syria and beyond. While definitely been one advocating a stronger response to Anglo-Zionist provocations, I can certainly understand the over-arching rationale explained here. I was never so extreme as to suggest Russia/Syria simply attack Israel, I strongly felt the S-300 and other such systems should have been deployed much earlier. The author does, however, make a good, but not totally convincing, argument why this was not done. What concerns me is is the implications of what the author so beautifully captured when he writes: “This “Eurasian” project unfolding before our eyes embodies this notion of cooperation that in reality Americans have never known, since their country was founded on the back of bloodshed and spitting on the human soul.” And it is precisely this violent, unspeakably evil history that Paul Craig Roberts and myself understand, as perhaps only the native born can, that allows us to warn that sooner or later Russia will be forced to decide on Fight or Flight. Yes, Putin has been masterful at the Geo-political Chess match that began in earnest once he arrived on the scene. But what happens when your opponent, who so embodies the most vile, irrational and evil impulses of humanity (no exaggeration here trust me) overturns the table and starts tearing up the room? That is the million dollar question.
As far his view that ” War is war. People die in war. And troops know the danger they put themselves in when they sign up and are deployed,” I find this somewhat problematic. For one, if you are the families of the lost soldiers, this comes off as a bit cold. Families will not so breezily look at how many people were lost before in the prior war. All they know is their loved ones are gone in the present. Second, if it is anything like the circumstances under which people join the military here in the States, it is not so cut and dried as “you know what you are getting into.” Many people here join because of the lack of any opportunities in the civilian economy. Especially for “minorities” but also for much of the White “under-class” it represents, no matter how potentially deadly, a way out of poverty and the soul crushing social/cultural landscape that exists in many areas of the country The raging opioid epidemic is only one indicator of this. Thus, while we do not have a de jeur draft we do have a de facto economic draft. Granted, this may not hold for the Russian socio-economic scene but there are reasons why rich people start wars but the lower classes end up fighting them. As Smedly Butler once said “war is a racket.” And this is true for virtually every country. Just food for thought.
I suppose a bottom-line question that occurs to one is: given the incident, does Russia plan to change or re-evaluate the nature of their relationship and cooperation with their “ally” Israel in any way? I suspect that the answer to this question, is no. If not, it would seem that Israel has gotten away with the takedown of the IL-20 which is unfortunate. As far as the S-300s are concerned, they are not yet deployed. Moreover, when they are deployed it remains to be seen the degree of threat they actually pose. Interesting to see the result.
In the days of Il-20 crisis somewhere I have read the IAF has still practiced against S-300 system using the Greece batteries. Moreover this AA system is well known to the West as many former Soviet or Warsaw Pact countries that had/have S-300 are now allied with the West and was aquired by US that could also very likely examine at will directly in Russia at Eltsin times. In Israel there are many former russian and some of them was certainly an S-300 operator. And we don’t know what degree of security have in Russia now about their systems. Certainly the S-300 has been upgraded and updated but, for these reasons, I suppose it is not a real danger for West.
Maybe Putin can grant or “facilitate” Israel the west part of Ukraine to satisfy the Greater Israel project…….
Wow, there is so much compelling fact mixed with unsupportable relationships being drawn between them.
I agree with the conclusion, and the (very) high level deduction that the situation is complicated,and in all likelihood, the Russian leadership is behaving according to a competent and appropriate response, subordinated to longer term strategic direction.
But some of the stuff… well, also including those-one-not-comment-about, thick and rich, whoa!
In the longer term, when a body has cancer, which will only grow and build itself up, without really a contributing …purpose in contributing to the longer term viability of the environment in which it is ultimately dependent, or to break it down to the minimum, where the contribution to maintaining the viability of the entire system upon which the entire body, including the cancer, depends for ongoing survival, is subordinated to energies to “win” by growing, and expanding its influence and control, at overall net negative impact to the system
A response that allows the cancer to continue, every single day, perhaps every single second, decreases the advantage the system has to overcome the cancer that will eventually take the entire system down, and therefore, ultimately commit suicide, itself, is, in pure logic, irrational.
Therefore, using at any point in an argument, a significant decision-moderating factor to preserve the long term prospects for the cancer, is flawed; ultimately the cancer will fulfill it purpose, destruction, including, self-destruction.
One way or another, any fostering of a cohesive global collective, which operates secretly to promote the ascendance of its group, systematically gaming the values-structures accepted to preserve the extra-normal benefit accrued to all, for extra-normal benefit to the collectives membership, at overall negative sum, for the entire system, is the, ultimately, defeatist’s cynicism.
Like I said, I do agree with a significant portion of the facts, and analysis, but spotting a blaring piece of ill-logic, undermines the integrity of the entire piece.
Nonetheless, I find myself agreeing with the author, as I often do, on many presented points, including supporting conclusions, for which verifiable evidence will be long-coming, and/or difficult, if not impossible to ever acquire.
a. Russian leadership (this is my broad paraphrase) not blowing their load ineffectively, all at once, i.e., as I have often mentioned lately, though not so precisely as this, proximal to a maximizing return on investment/risk, in the short to medium term, subordinated to the long term strategy of the first principle, preserving the continuance of the “Russian people, including the dominant values-set, and the territorial integrity of their geopolitical space.
we agree on that, the Russian response is not biased towards short term “look-at-me peaks into the spot light (would be cast in very unfavourable context by those… people,… who control the empire’s media, and disproportionately, the global conversation/perception), also,
b. agree, [paraphrasing as honestly as I can, again] Russia will not announce something that is a logistic improbability/impossibility for them, i.e. a no-fly zone spread out too large. Their focus, and this must be demonstratable by … everything they do and say, protect Russian interests first, i.e. their own servicepeople (this gender-revolution-thing is taxing); there will be no augmentation of anybody else, which decreases the safety of these assets; I buy it, even if it is a branding and ultimately subordinated to the long term first principle of ‘Russian survival and sustainment of their sovereignty, to support it, maintaining that brand is critical to achieving their longer term first principle!
Anyhow, some other stuff is highly pejorative, including, but not limited to, the ongoing ‘trend of ultimately blaming the Anglo-Saxons, it’s really getting to be a little too ripe.
I note with the cynicism one gets from having seen a trend, so resiliant, the phase we are at, dropping the “Zio component of the oft-used label.
No, now it’s deflecting from that component, to squarely on the Anglo-Saxons, whatever the hell that is?!
Now is that a “race?!
Is it a “culture!?”
Is it a [fill in the blank] _______________ ?!
I think I’ve seen this before?!
The likely theoretical extreme maximum of genetics on actual behaviours over the course of a life time of a human is at max 6%-7%.
I don’t think that could be the smoking gun for attributing … any behaviours, let alone group behaviours.
Culture is a different thing altogether, because it implies values-norms across a distinct ‘society‘, but where do you point to a normative value-structure across even an existing geographic and/or politically distinct group… of Anglo-Saxons… in the year most readers here describe as 2018?!?!
Please try and stay on topic and also not attack the author. Mod
Absolutely fantastic analysis! Saker once again you manage to get some of the best writing on current events, onto your blog.
It’s a breath of fresh air to read a knowledgeable, adult analysis. Such a pleasure to read an entire article about world events that doesn’t mention American boomer obsessions like how standing up to bullies in high school in 1964 always made them back down, or how appeasing tyrants just makes them stronger, because Munich, or about how a few casualties will cause a powerful and honourable army to revolt against its leader, because Vietnam man!
This article is a great look at how the real world actually functions.
“Does Israel violate Syrian airspace?”
Well, i thought that the israel aircrafts launched missiles to destroy some Syrian targets. And if so, isnt it a violation ?
On paper yes, in context – no. Here is a copy and paste of my response to another commenter:
“Tel Aviv coordinated it’s bank of targets with Moscow beforehand, and when Moscow sees that it’s some abandoned warehouses where Hezbollah stores hay for cows, Moscow says ‘okay, go ahead, feel free to waste your missiles on laughable targets’.”
Israel gave Russia 1 minute warning they would bomb northern Syria, instead they bombed western Syria near Russian base and hid behind a Russian plane. I call that a premeditated murder. It is no coincidence Mossad’s motto is “through deceit though shall wage war”. They are known for backstabbing, deception and a high iq. They thought they would outsmart the Russians. The Russians have a great allied in Israel, they are arming the Azov batallion in the Ukraine LOL
““Tel Aviv coordinated it’s bank of targets with Moscow beforehand, and when Moscow sees that it’s some abandoned warehouses where Hezbollah stores hay for cows, Moscow says ‘okay, go ahead, feel free to waste your missiles on laughable targets’.””
To that sounds like violating Syrian air space.
Presumably Syrian air space is the air space over Syria, i.e., congruent with the nation known as Syria, which has specific borders.
“Laughable targets” within Syria would seem to be excepted from lying under “Syrian air space”?
Um, how does one get to the laughable targets?
Seems like there is a conceptual wall, a la the Gaza fence, separating laughable targets from “real” Syrian air space.
Great piece. Funnel of fullcircle overview. Ru and Chi and Ir and Sy are cutting out
a growing piece out of the Jewish governed Planet.
If we like it or not the net of jewish -national- family – cult is a reality. A nice jewish bagpacker
told my friend in Australia while picking aples on a farm: “We can came to wherever in the world, everywhere are our people, and give us comfort.”
This global net is something they have and will remain to have as a given.
And with their ‘no interest on the brother but on the goyims’, where the Koran tells ‘no interest at’ all the Jewish way is the capitalist way, like Jewish Karl Marx stated in “Zur Judenfrage.”
Putin is a master of dealing with the given and with his Security Councel presiding a master class.
It’s up to mankind to study the master instead of demonstrating one’s emphatic blindness.
Not quite true – there are still many countries (Muslim) in Asia that do not recognize Israel. They cannot even travel there…
“Another factor is that the zionist rats that are currently in power in Israel are only a transient phenomenon. ”
Well, the article seems so strange, because its well known that zionism is the national idea of israel and it simply cannot be regarded as something transient, its the fundamental on which the system rests and is built
Lieber Saker, es ist immer eine Freude, Deine Analysen zu lesen. Hinsichtlich der IL würde ich indes die Möglichkeit einer Falle für die Sabres in Erwägung ziehen – erscheint mir mehr als opportun…
Herzliche Grüsse aus der Schweiz – Deine Beweggründe hinsichtlich Deiner Ausreise teile ich Miro Patak
The analysis is by Ollie Richardson – no the Saker. Mod
I disagree with much of the article.But I’ll concentrate on two points.I’ll leave aside the legal point of Israel breaking the UN Charter by attacking a sovereign nation.That fact is too obvious to need discussion.And instead talk about the part where by “Israel” might change and accept a “real” two state solution.Its not possible.Israel’s entire “reason for being” is to be an only Jewish state.Controlling “all” of historic Palestine,at a “minimum”.And to recreate the ancient Jewish control of large areas of the modern neighboring states,as its ultimate goal.
Zionism as an ideology can’t exist any other way. Just as nazism was based on annexing all historic German conquered territories (and even more to the East).Zionism is based on Jewish settlement and conquest of much of the Middle East.The “leopard”can’t change its spots,and still be a leopard.As the Israelis talk about “peace and two states” from one side of their mouths.The other side seizes more and more Palestinian land.Implanting as of today over 500,000 Jewish settlers on West Bank land.Compared to the Israeli version of apartheid,the original was pretty mild.
The Israelis want to hold the “dream” of a Palestinian state open only to fool peoples in the West. Their actions clearly show their true intentions.To colonize with Israeli Jews so much of the West Bank that a viable Palestinian “state” is impossible.And create “reservations” out of the rest of the area to confine the millions of Palestinians in.If they “could” get away with it (and who knows if they can in the future),they would expel or kill all the Palestinians and be done with it.But as of now they can only steal land,kill Palestinians a few at a time (7 in Gaza yesterday including children),and hope more will give up the hopeless life they have in their homeland and leave.
The demographic situation is stark for Israel.Right now the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank together are around 5 million people.People without rights,unable to control what happens to them.Imagine occupied France in WW2,with a Vichy government “said to be in control”.But with the Germans really controlling France.And you get a small picture of occupied Palestine.Even in pre-1967 Israeli territory around 20% of the population is Palestinian.Legally they have rights,but in reality Blacks in the Jim Crow US South had more rights than Israeli citizen Palestinians do.And the new “Jewish state” law makes it even worse for Palestinian-Israelis.The zionists know that without more Jewish immigration,and/or getting rid of the Palestinian people they can’t continue as a zionist state for the long term future.Hence the constant propaganda among Jews to move to Israel.And their savage treatment of Palestinians.
Any Israeli version of a Palestinian state is one of mini-Bantustans without human rights for its Palestinian citizens.And only until they can find a moment in time suitable to “solve the Palestinian problem” in a zionist manner.From the beginnings of the settlement of zionists in Palestine,until today they have followed the same plan,make the land Jewish,and get rid of the native population.
Secondly the part on Donbass. Do you have any proof that Girkin was a CIA agent to share with us. I’ve heard that accusation before,but have seen no proof at all of it.Just as in the current “Russiagate” insanity in the US . Accusations are worthless without having proof.Only the British seem to get away with “highly likely” as proof of guilt. I’ve followed the situation in Donbass from the start,and I see Girkin as a monarchist and nationalist.Which made for a rocky road in Donbass,where most of the pro-Russian majority were working class “Soviet” people. He was never,except for a short time,able to “click” with the local population.His troubles came from schisms within the vast “Russian World”,not outside it.
I tend to agree with you. I have read lines in some articles that Girkin aka Strielkov was an agent of the west. That, what he organized had blah, blah plans. I believe, that if Putin really thought that this was a case, Girkin would have been prosecuted and convicted of treason and would not see the daylight. I really think that he is a Russian Patriot. It is also my understanding that he was in special forces in Afghanistan. How did he get to be Lieutenant Colonel by being double agent? I simply believe that he had a fall out with Putin on the subject of Mariupol and the rest of NovoRosiya. So he got “retired”.
On more thing, if I may.
I believe that, he (Girkin) is being badmouthed because whatever he did, really, really F-up someone’s plan’s to take over all of Ukraine.
Just a thought.
“Controlling “all” of historic Palestine,at a “minimum”.And to recreate the ancient Jewish control of large areas of the modern neighboring states,as its ultimate goal.”
I don’t think anything called Israel or any part of what now constitutes either Jews or Judaism or Israelis ever actually controlled large areas of neighboring states (Syria, Iraq, Jordan). It is a mystery to me where Jews got this idea. Oh, they said that over 2000 years ago their God promised them these lands over 2000 years ago—in the future. That promise was of course a ludicrous fantasy. But was also supposed to happen only after the coming of the Messiah, remember that part?
What the Jews didn’t accept about the group who become called Christians was that the latter thought that Jesus was the promised Messiah. Although, since they all, Jews and Christians-to-be, were already living in Palestine at that time, the contingency aspect of the promise doesn’t really make sense. In other words, the idea that Palestine and other nearby lands had been promised to the Jews must logically have been made, when they weren’t already living there . . . You don’t ring the doorbell when you are already at the door. This ancient “promise” by Yahweh must have been made, or made up, later, after the Jews had already been expelled from Palestine.
In the end, it seems like where Christianity promised Christians heaven, Judaism promised them the land of Palestine, and not much else. Now that t hey have got “Heaven” (aka Israel) there is no other nice promise except “more of Heaven” (aka more nearby lands).
For those who don’t know, general wesley clark is a jew.
The attack on the Donbass by the fascist supported coup regime in kiev was US inspired and initiated, as part of PNAC: The Project for the New American Century, which led to 911 – ‘a new Pearl Harbor’ and then the totally illegal invasion of Iraq based on WMD BS.
As stated in the neocon original wolfowitz – a jew – doctrine (revealed by the jewish nyt ironically, in 1992), Russia was to be contained, kept in its place, of which the thorn in the flesh of using ukraine against it is part of it.
The US wants to be supreme for the whole of this century, and China is obviously also attacked in various ways to do likewise to it, but american pride, arrogance and stupidity is going to end ‘its’ century that much sooner. Eurasia can’t be contained, and outnumbers the Americas 5:1.
I forgot to say: the act of hiding behind a front-goy is an old, very old
Jewish scheme protecting the minority-status and the jewish genius,
in a non-Jewish majority, bred by a tradition of carefully training the
genius of their kids.
In the strict ethnocentrist style of doing the money-game for centuries
in the style of lending to both sides in a given war, the Rothschilds rose
to a Symbol for the whole powerful net.
Israel’s ‘everything goes’ by hiding behind the American Colossus is,
what every powerfull midged would do, and will do, so moral outcry is senseless.
IT’s certainly a bloody joke, this hiding behind IL-20 – goys- game,
with statesmannish Judo and win-win capitalism the planet will overcome the interest-driven
theocracy of bully-money.
I like the way you think, Ollie. Most people don’t understand that winning on the moral level of warfare is more important than winning on the tactical level.
I’m going to laugh my ass off when the Qatar, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey pipeline to Europe gets built.
Thank you, Rob! It’s interesting that you mention pipelines, because last week Putin, during his press conference with Orban, announced that Turkish Stream can pass through Hungary. It’s amazing what can happen in just 3 years (since the Su-24 shootdown). The real consequences of the West’s failed gamble in Syria are yet to come ;)
Dear Ollie, I fear the West (the US, UK, France and Israel) are not going to accept that their gambit failed. They will cheat and put new pieces on the board (or try to) and come up with more evil and destructive nonsense. The Novichuk farce is not for fun but propaganda to prepare the masses for war. Too many unhinged people in the West with too many sinister agendas for this to be over yet. The real consequences may take many forms, such as outright war when the West (see above) feels it has nothing to lose. If the West is squeezed out of the Middle East it’s game over for them, and they know it very well. For 100 years they have tried to rule over the ME unopposed.
Ollie, France and Germany were hard, but America will be as easy as taking superpower candy away from a baby. I figured out over 10 years ago there was going to be 2 cold war losers via economic collapse due to dumbass leadership: USSR and USA.
The US has too much personal, corporate and government debt relative to GDP. I expect financial crisis to resume after 10 years of kicking the can down the road.
Good reasoning by Ollie!
No bombs, sue the Jewishness out of Tel Aviv!
I am going to repose this question if I may
A conundrum…..if Russians man the s300..would they use them against IDF planes that were about to attack Syrian or ” Iranian” assets (not just primarily to protect Russian operatives)….presumably if manned by Syrians they would use them against IDF as clearly proved by their recent actions…… will Israel be party to knowing which are to be operated by Russians…..or deliberately not informed to prevent any actions by IDF against anything and anyone in Syria?
if the plane had not been downed…..presumably IDF would still make their attacks in Syria whatever they claim as the target…..so..as they only informed of 25 out of 200 they made(really cheesing of MoD)……and these seem to be “permitted” and the lack of being informed to Russia…..being “permitted ” too….when would this really cheese of Russia…let alone Iran and Syria….and what would they say to Russia….Iran seems to be saying now that enough is enough…..
……still unsure as most people must be….the mystery of the French missiles…..any more thoughts anyone – Ollie?
If the IDF perceive the S-300 installations as a threat (which is likely) they will be attacked and destroyed. Lieberman has already stated this. The nationalities of the crews will make no difference. Russians will have no immunity.
Israel will be ripped a new hole if they do that. Israel doesn’t have the space for a new hole for one thing. The Zionist project in Palestine would be over forever because even if Israel wasn’t totally destroyed, nobody sane would ever move there or want to stay there. The dual citizens would dump Israel and Netanyahu as fast as they could and move back to New York, Poland and Ukraine etc.
Lieberman is “just mouthing off.”
Israel might not be the brightest lightbulb in the pack it’s not going to target and kill Russians deliberately. There is also no way they can “take out” all the EW, S3+400, Buk, Tor, Pantsir and whatever else systems now in Syria in one strike.
Russia has used this event to upscale their armaments in Syria dramatically – certainly well enough to make FUKUS rethink their intent to strike Syria if Russia/Syria go clean out Idlib. We’ve already seen a hint to this…. breaking it to the Americans gently?
To a considerable degree you are correct about Lieberman. It’s called playing the meshugenah. There’s a little more to it than just “mouthing off”, however. It would be unwise to simply ignore him. On your other point, of course Israel will target anyone they believe represents a security threat, including Russians. True, it’s unlikely that they would do so openly. But there are many less obvious ways. They took down the IL-20. They attacked the USS Liberty. In each case, Israel claimed the event was an “accident”. But in each case Israel refused to apologize or, more importantly, change their behavior to prevent similar accidents from occurring in the future. In the case of the IL-20, they clearly underestimated Shoygu, only Shoygu not Putin. The RF government did accept that the event was an “accident” which already cleared Israel of most blame. As long as they are receive the benefit of the doubt they can achieve much.
We shall see what happens going forward regarding Russian air defense and ECM. By the way, I never claimed Israel could take out all Russian/Syrian air defenses in “one strike”. They don’t need to do that in any case. The usual strategy would be to begin to probe and test, if there is no response or consequences, gradually escalate. I do think you are seriously underestimating Israeli capabilities, though.
And I think the lack of response to Israeli aggression makes them seriously over-estimate their capabilities. It has them thinking “everyone’s afraid of them.”
And I think – not to minimize the lives lost – the Israeli event was a happy accident for the Kremlin. Look what it has allowed them to bring in with barely a peep of protest out “The West.” And as it would be nigh impossible to arrest and “try” 30-100,000 terrorists perhaps we should expect to see them “eliminated” soon? (Lavrov.)
I hope you’re right.
I didn’t imply you did – I’m merely saying that if they target one, another one will get them.
“in the same way that a Putin can arrive after a Yeltsin” What really scares me is the possibility that a Yeltsin can arrive after the Putin.
We may also consider that is already here since 1999 in a much more shrewd and sober version.
I’ve had the same thought for awhile. Whereas if Trump, Pence or Hillary etc. were in charge it wouldn’t matter globally.
It’s a testament to Putin that one man could be seen as responsible for a symbol of strength and resurrecting his country and standing up to an adversary that has had it’s way for far too long.
He only needs to choke on his morning bagel however and so much could change.
I don’t really think that is possible. Yeltsin arrived because the US poured billions of dollars as bribes to military and other corrupt. Check the US dollar imports of London for the time, they actually level off as money that would normally have been dealt with by London went to the USSR instead.
Yelstin was installed, and Russia economically raped. History cannot be repeated the same way, as the support from the pro-western parties in Russia show. Whatever happens after Putin leaves Russia and the world will be a different place.
Very interesting and informative article which destroys the common belief that a street fighter who doesn’t follow rules will defeat a boxer who follows the Queesberry rules.
Muy buen análisis. Desnuda lo que la nación Rusa ha sido y es; paciente para responder con conciencia de los resultados a lograr. Rusia a la fecha, su gobierno, muestra ante situaciones de esta estirpe, prudencia, tolerancia, y paciencia. Haciendo uso de un lenguaje mesurado, pero… Firme.
Ollie, thanks for the article and your comments.
I want to focus on Girkin. You mention he is a CIA asset. Could you give us some documentation on this.
I always smelled this clown as an agent provacateur, not a hero.
He defied Putin and started the war (in my opinion). The ATO was reaction to what Girkin started. He got a lot of people killed, he got a lot of Donbass lost to the ATO, and Zakh and others had to save his ass and then kicked him out of Donetsk.
I would really appreciate reading more about that if you have the resources on line.
I won’t get into the Israel thing. Enough of that always erupts like Pavlov’s dog.
I’ve spent many comments trying to indicate standing off and firing missiles is not violation of airspace and it is not “bombing” when its missiles and guided bombs sent from over Lebanon. But some folks have all the answers even when they don’t know what the question is.
Your article offers to many a viewpoint that encapsulates wisdom with analysis of Russia policy and tactics that have shaped both Donbass and Syrian operations. It is one view of Russian Federation goal, mission and strategy. And most of it rings true.
I appreciate your POV and talent as translator. Keep at it. You’re an important resource and enable us to reach into Russian-language material as we probe for the truth and a grasp of the real, sans ideology.
Tel Aviv coordinated it’s bank of targets with Moscow beforehand, and when Moscow sees that it’s some abandoned warehouses where Hezbollah stores hay for cows, Moscow says ‘okay, go ahead, feel free to waste your missiles on laughable targets
I don’t think it works that way Ollie. The whole idea of the Russo-Israeli agreement is that no jets or missiles in Israeli or RF livery shoot each other down but it’s pretty much a cat and mouse game.
In the 10% of the time when the Israelis bother to inform the Russians of their attacks, it’s more likely that somebody from the Israeli side radios his/her RF counterpart that they’re coming and targeting a general area. They can’t be too specific because then the Russians/SAA/Iran/Hesbollah will know for sure that somebody in Syria is providing the specific targeting info and despite the chaos and confusion, sooner or later they’ll probably be able to zero in on the informant.
The second thing is, the 10%-of-the-time notification occurs when the Israelis think that Russians are near the target and are at risk of getting hurt.
The third point is, sometimes an attack is mounted to confirm something. If the Israelis (or FUKUS) want to confirm that RF are operating say, near Daraa (I’m just plucking a name here), the Israelis will inform RF of an impending attack on Daraa and see what the RF response is. If RF say “no, don’t” then that most likely confirms their presence. OTOH of course RF may say ‘OK’ even if they’re there in order to protect a surprise move or an important piece of info.
The fourth point perhaps relates to the main topic of the article. I think Syria/Iran/Hezbollah understand the geopolitics of the conflict. There’s hardly a peep of complaint, at least in official media, about the ‘lack of Russian protection’ from any of them. They understand the Russo-Israeli deal and are willing to absorb some punishment. But of course there’s a limit to how much punishment they can take. At some point Hezbollah or whoever non-RF who is at the receiving end of Israeli attacks are going to complain if the going gets too tough. The operative phrase is ‘too tough’. RF will then have to adjust accordingly since they need to keep the ‘Resistance’ coalition together in Syria.
“I don’t think it works that way Ollie”
It does work that way otherwise I wouldn’t say it. Every Israeli airstrike pre 17.09.2018 was coordinated with Moscow (to avoid serious accidents) with a couple of exceptions, which is why Russia gave the SAA the green light on two occasions to respond. The first response was the ambush that led to 2 IDF jets being downed, and the second response was when the SAA bombarded the Golan Heights, which Israel didn’t respond to (message received).
And how exactly would you know that?It’s not something one can accept just because you said so.
“It does work that way otherwise I wouldn’t say it.”
Hmmmm, interesting logic . . .
“Every Israeli airstrike pre 17.09.2018 was coordinated with Moscow (to avoid serious accidents) with a couple of exceptions, ”
In that case how come Konashenkov said that the Israelis only informed the Russians of 25% of their strikes (or maybe it was a lower percentage)?
I kinda agree with your points …seems to make sense. As a side thought I just wonder how many Israeli agents there are in Syria….and are any being “repatriated” in any ways……
Interesting piece from OH. Generally disagreed with comments by him here in the past, so was pleasantly surprised by how much I agreed with what he wrote here.
A couple things, though.
“Q) Does Israel violate Syrian airspace?
The israelis do violate Syrian air space in their attacks, sending in air ordinance from outside a country’s borders to hit that country violates their air space.
But this sort of practical cowardice from the zionazi-gays is not relevant to why Russia is not attacking israeli aircraft. The Russian “mission” in Syria is not protecting Syria from 3rd nation aggressive moves, Russia is there to kill al qaida in Syria, not fight ww1 style alliance block warfare.
So simply, the fight between Syria and israel is their business, as long as israel does not attack Russian forces, Russia wont interfere between the two directly.
With the israeli provocation (Il-20) against Russia, planned, deliberate and part of a larger strategy, the israelis did attack Russians.
And deliberately and openly declared war on Russia. In other words, as far as Russia is concerned, there is no need to give the israelis any more rope regarding their thinly disquised war against Russia.
They already hanged themselves.
Second: “This takes pressure off Russia to deliver some big hit to please social media entertainment seekers.”
The zionazi-gay webspamming freakshow in the west has zero influence and impact on Russian foreign policy. This propaganda psywar is to dissuade westerners from siding with Russia. In other words, it is directed at people outside Russia and is a western zionazi-gay colonial policing op to dissuade the colonials from siding with the “bad guys”.
The Russian government knows who they are up against, and why, and makes policy accordingly. What powerless people in the west think of that is not really of any consequence.
So, it is not a violation of international law to lob bombs on another country if you do without entering the country’s airspace?
Please refer to my response(s) to other commenters saying the same thing.
If we accept that line of reasoning then it follows that the whole thing about Russia giving Syria S-300 and the Israelis vehemently complaining is merely a charade. Because it makes no difference what air defense the Syrians have if all the Israeli attacks are merely shows with little consequence..
So, what is going on?
Russia didn’t lose a plane and 15 soldiers? A charade?
Syria didn’t shoot a missile? IL-20 not brought down by S-200?
Which of whose statements are true and which is false?
We have the official Russian stance that Israel was indeed culpable in the deaths of these airmen, i.e. it was no “accident”. And now we have the official Russian response, e.g. s300 :D The Zionists are worried which is a good thing.
The response is always the same.
Metzitzah B’Peh practice is an insane one. Brains are not whole and not going to heal unless sincere serious enlightenment occurs.
The criminally insane that decided planet earth is a slave world cannot and therefore never shall accept a peaceful multipolar world.
A vital bonding hormone missing (circumcision) requires an inconceivable healing energy to balance the eight systems of the human being. The Metzitzah B’ Peh is an inconceivable vile practice that requires the whole of our humanity to awaken about life as a right to be whole.
Very interesting writing. We must all see the composition’s vanishing points and the lights, waves, energies as not separate.
In my opinion, the article is replete with falsehoods and straw-man arguments.
In the interest of time and space I wont try attempt to respond to all them – they are just too many- but this one really stuck in my craw:
“…the zionist rats that are currently in power in Israel are only a transient phenomenon. Governments and their policies come and go. It’s perfectly possible that a leader will come to power in Israel one day who is in favour of peace with Palestinians/Arabs, in the same way that a Putin can arrive after a Yeltsin…”
There is nothing transient about the current Israeli government.
Successive administrations have been brutally consistent in their policies towards the Palestinians, and other countries in the region as a whole, since 1948.
Mass arrests and incarcerations
Indiscriminate targeting and killing of civilians
Indiscriminate destruction of civilian infrastructure
In humane treatment
have all been seamlessly meted out to the Palestinians and practiced across successive Zionist administrations, regardless of the banner under which they ostensibly came to power and govern.
So I rather doubt that the long suffering Palestinians can distinguish between the nuances of Labor and Likud or Kadima administrations, vis-a-vis the Zionist entity.
Nor should they expect any change.
Successive administrations have come and killed and killed and killed and killed, seemingly with the aim of ‘out-killing’ the one that preceded it.
All Israeli leaders past and present are unabashed murders and war-criminals.
I dare anyone to name one who wasn’t. Just name me a single one.
In fact, being able to kill Palestinians without compunction, is an agreed prerequisite in Israeli politics.
There is no comparison between Israel and Russia.
There is no comparison with this murderous entity and any other country, bar none.
“There is nothing transient about the current Israeli government.”
Amen. You’re right. To suggest otherwise is a gross misreading of history. Settlement building continued apace before, during and after the “peace” process. Leading Israelis stated that the peace process was just a fig leaf for continued expansion into Palestinian areas. Has the writer seen a map of what remains of Palestine? Multiple, besieged enclaves do not a country make.
The two-state solution is a chimera; the one state solution (secular and equal rights for all) is the only logical way.
The whole IL-20 affair raises more question than answers.
The only thing that we know for sure is that the Russians are mightily pissed off with the Russians and a new relationship is being negotiated between the Russians and Israelis regarding the Syria war.
We should know soon enough what they are.
“Also, the core of fourth generation warfare is using simulacra to position a digital hologram over actual ground warfare in order to carve out space to manoeuvre diplomatically…” What does this mean in non think tank palaver, please?
Also, I beg you, do not expect the likes of Paul Craig Roberts to believe that any significant percentage of those 200 plus Israeli strikes were considered “token” by the Israelis or mere “nuisance” by the Syrians. Maybe someone in Russian Central Command is smoking too much of that Siberian ganga if they believe that they are actually going to supervise what would amount to a limited Israeli war on Iranian assets in Syria and that would go down well.
And how does one maneuver diplomatically with a major player who practices a self contradictory policy of de facto “chaotisation” in which the first principle declared null and void is any universal application of international law?
Two state solution? That train left the station on a Mobious loop about the time Minsk II died a premature death of neglect and abuse.
Beware the doctrine of the “token” air strike.
Unbelievable that the author of the article believes that Israel is under control, did you read the Israeli Jewish politicians making fun of the deceased Russian military? Even on Twitter they mock the Russian bases, they even scoff that they have 1000 fighters ready to destroy Tartus and Hmeymim, never trust the Zionists, They want to see Syria and Iran destroyed, and if possible Russia too.
Very interesting article, thank you.
Some comments mention international law, which does not appear to apply to the mighty or the victorious – see Mr Bolton’s recent comments on attending international courts of justice.
If IDF aircraft can hide in the shadow of Lebanon’s high ground, is S300 deployment relevant?
Could this not lead to Syrian launches against aforementioned aircraft landing at or taking off from their bases? Surely an adventurous policy…
If the Syrians used the S-300s to target
Israeli planes as they were taking off in Israel, at least it would not be violation of Israeli airspace. That can only be done if an airborne body carries a passenger. Good to know. If I use a dagger to cut up your innards I am not violating your body. That would only be the case if I stuck a finger in the hole. Neat thinking. Wonder how it came about. And this is what – international law?
Ollie, keep up the good work at stalkerzone.org especially regarding what Oleg Tsarev (Tsarov? – which is correct?) has to say.
I don’t know how much traffic the site gets, but I think it should be a lot more.
Hi, it is “Царёв”, which transliterates as “Tsaryov”. In Russian you will see it also spelt as “Царев”. The difference is the first variant has “ё” and the second one has “е”. Here, “ё” is a “yo” sound, and “е” is more like “ye” in English. But in Russian “ё” isn’t often seen on paper, because Russians know how to pronounce “е” in context. I hope this isn’t confusing :p Anyway, you will see it spelt as “Tsarov” on social media because Facebook persistently blocks his latin pages that use the “Tsarev” spelling.
We will continue our work as best we can, I know that the junta in Kiev knows about us ;)
Thanks for the detailed explanation, Ollie. All the very best, especially health.
making the unacceptable acceptable.?
What is said here seems rational logic straight or whatever. But it is normal logic within a certain paradigm. But the other side has abandoned this paradigm. they create their own logic.Two mentalities which move more and more away from each other and are in fact opposing each other.
Russia does what it can. Ultimately it is to dismember Russia. Break it up in pieces or destroy it. In going about this the evil side will ultimately isolate itself ( it is happening ) and collapse in one way or the other soft or hard on its own. In the meantime people suffer…….. .
by stating that israel doesn’t violate syrian air space…..(all those bombs exploding are really fire works?)….you demonstrate your intention to mislead…obfuscate…..and use disingenuous arguments….
there was no point in reading any further.
Direct vs. Indirect Update:
found a dictionary (Merriam online) they have for “direct”
to cause to turn, move, …
to point, extend, or project in a specified line or course
to regulate the activities or course of
so even after educating myself – it still seems the F16 directed the course of the missile to kill 15 of its “friends”
(regulated the missiles activities, pointed it, cause it to turn move and so forth)
for “indirect” the dictionary says:
deviating from a direct line or course (deviating from its course to the F16)
not going straight to the point (the F16 being the point)
sounds like a good fit for the syrian situation –
so sorry guys – unless someone can direct me : ) to a one of these new math type dictionaries will have to remain stuck with thinking it was a direct action of the F16 pilot…
i am trying …
This articel is a gem i would say. It explains so well the entire play that is being played on multiple stage against not only Russia but all those country who are striving for prosperity and peace. Thanks a lot.
At least the S-300 saga has had a happy ending. Do you really think Putin gets credit for this? Unless I missed something, the last we heard from Putin was his calling the incident an accident and bending over backwards not to blame Israel. It seems that would have been the end of the story had the Ministry of Defence and Russian military not gone public blaming Israel and promising Syria the S-300s. I get the impression this has taken place against Putin’s wishes.
If the above is accurate, then those online questioning Putin are perfectly entitled to do so. I find myself wondering how great Putin’s desire is to get along with the West. How many concessions will he make and how many allies will be of secondary concern while he tries to appease the warmongering west?
In light of this episode, I am reviewing Putin’s past master strokes. Suddenly Georgia and Ukraine begin to look more like half measures. Putin taking action because he had no choice, yet doing as little as he could in order to minimize western anger. Why tolerate a hostile regime in Georgia after they killed Russian peacekeepers? The civil war in Donbass could have been easily avoided if Putin had been as bold as he was in Crimea. Even in the case of Syria, the initial successes have become bogged down with attempts at a negotiated settlement, even though Russia is trying to negotiate with the people who support ISIS. Current result: the US military in the north east and Turkish military in north west. It appears the complete liberation of Syria is as far away as ever. A couple of months ago we looked to be poised to see Idlib liberated and Assad coming to an agreement with the Kurds to get the US out.
I’m not necessarily saying Putin has done anything wrong, however I am questioning what his true priorities really are. I appreciate the people writing here and at other sites in support of Putin. I’m just not sure the man moves from one stroke of genius to the next one and we just have to be patient. Paul Craig Roberts reading of the situation, especially after this latest incident, looks to be more realistic.
You are 100% correct.
Continuous low level war suits the global elite (and their MIC inflating share price) just fine.
EoinW: Forget the personalities for a moment and judge only the outcomes and end-result. Russia has achieved miracles in Syria. Its a team effort.
” I get the impression this has taken place against Putin’s wishes.”
I would say it was the perfect good cop/bad cop scenario. Played very well by both Putin and Shoigu.
Why mass punish the Israeli people just because of the actions of a bunch of Zionist crooks in the Knesset?
Because the people of Israel elected Binyamin NetanLieToYou? More than once! Aren’t voters responsible for anything?
Actually, I agree with the author on not destroying Israel over losing fifteen Russians. I just want the Israelis to be more careful whom they chose to lead them.
Excellent article. It helps me understand why Russia conducts itself with such patience. I do have concerns though. The U.S. from it’s beginning has not been what it is presented as being: the land of the free. It is controlled by dark entities who have no national loyalties. They run the international banking system and control most of the world. I believe we are on the cusp of a global economic collapse that is both unavoidable and planned. It appears to have already begun. And what will accompany this is massive war. It is the intention of these global controllers to so unseat and destroy the old order so that they will then present their solution of a new order. But it won’t really be new. It will be control over all by a few, the rest being slaves who worship the new government over all. The crazed west has no intention of stopping and no amount of brilliant political maneuvering can stop what is coming, I fear.
@ Craig Mouldey
You are so right.
But the chaos and the war has started some time ago: in campuses,on the streets,media shows,movies,congress,homes,schools,UN, almost everything,all the pillars,structures,defense systems of societies,families,nations,etc… collapse up to :
” A time is coming when men will go mad, and when they see someone who is not mad, they will attack him, saying, “You are mad; you are not like us. ”
This will be the New Old Order!
In my comment below i did a mistake,was in a hurry,Mrs Holmes doesn’t want me stay too much on Internet.
Instead of ” whites vs the rest “, much better is, ” all the colors vs white “
Ollie,how could you write an article like this ? Very well done. i like this comment too:
” You “forgot” to mention that Tel Aviv coordinated it’s bank of targets with Moscow beforehand, and when Moscow sees that it’s some abandoned warehouses where Hezbollah stores hay for cows, Moscow says “okay, go ahead, feel free to waste your missiles on laughable targets”.
A rhetorical question for you: What mistakes should Israel regime do in order for Syria to get some Iskander or Kalibr launchers ( they are already in Syria but in russian possesion) to fight terrorists in Idlib or elsewhere ?
Unfortunately,the big problem for all of us is the sand.
For reunifications,Eurasion projects,de-dollarization,etc…
the Empire destroys the humanity and the world so fast and deeply,( battle of sexes,democrats vs republicans,minorities vs majority, whites vs the rest, gender vs science, USA vs all, Israel vs Palestinians and shiites,kids vs parents,young vs old,liberals vs believers and human race,corporations and pollution vs nature,secret services and terrorists vs pedestrians and cafe-bars,immigrants vs citizens,the Empire vs Russia …the list of conflicts they create is endless.
” It’s perfectly possible that a leader will come to power in Israel one day who is in favour of peace with Palestinians/Arabs,”
But a leader who might have made peace with the Palestinians did come to power. Israel is known for its skilled security procedures. So I assume Shin Bet either ‘Let It Happen On Purpose’ or Made It Happen on Purpose. That is, the assassination of Rabin by one of Israel’s own.
Anything is possible, however the trend isn’t good. Israel is becoming more extremist every day. Moderate Israelis, the ones who might support a peace deal, are getting out and will continue to do so at a growing rate. Extremism begets extremism. Israel has been in a position to make peace for decades but has chosen to steal more land instead. The idea a peace movement could prevail this late in the day is very unrealistic. About as much chance of that as America electing a leader who really wants peace.
Thus Putin’s grand plan of a peaceful Middle East will fail. Israel has never shown any signs of wanting to live in peace with its neighbours. If that wasn’t problem enough, then there is the House of Saud. if the Russians are serious about bring peace to the region then those two problems must be eliminated. You’re never going to negotiate them away. The Putin strategy, in spite of its good intentions, will fail in the end.
@EowinW I’m not sure what point g was trying to convey. But for me the point is that the best chance for a possible peaceful settlement between Israel and the Palestinians has come and gone, long ago. Very unlikely to ever come again. The loss of Rabin was perhaps the greatest catastrophe in the history of the State of Israel.
Israel has stated more than once that it will destroy the S-300 in Syria. Assuming this is not bluff and bluster how will they achieve this?
I am going to assume that they will be protected by local Pantsir short range defence systems for anything that sneaks under radar or is launched (e.g. boots on ground) close to the S-300 unit and inside its minimum range.
So the ways Israel can achieve this are by local sabotage, EW to confuse or block defensive radar, anti-radar missiles, overwhelming with decoys and saturation attacks that would use up the Pantsirs etc. The saturation attacks could be short range mortars en masse and lobbing multiple sequential rounds or other artillery but I will assume that such an operation would be detected long before it became a menace.
So my question for those with the knowledge: is it possible to defeat the Pantsir system with EW close range? If the F-35 truly is undetectible (iffy) then it could use longer range missiles that evade the S-300/S-400 control systems or short range and cannon for ground attack. No point in elaborating but the F-35 is possibly the worst platform ever for ground attack so my question here is a theoretical one.
This articles seem to offer a lot of thought on the plight of poor innocent Israelis, and what will become of them when the people they’ve stolen from come back with a vengeance.
For me that’s all I need to know, and reading the rest is unnecessary.
There is more than meets the eye. Here is something that doesn’t feet in the big picture.
A polar bear doesn’t feet in a savannah picture, as a giraffe doesn’t feet in an arctic picture.
The Russian S-400 missile system in Syria were active during the night of 9/17/18. Their 92N6E (or 92N2E) is a multi-functional radar has a range of 400-kilometre (250 mi) which can track 100 targets.
So with S 400 active, the Russian in Syria had “real-time” radar airspace picture and data in support of the battle commander and the Ground Theater Air Control System (GTACS).
They know the entire trajectory of the launched missiles from start to end, including the missile or missiles that shoot down IL 20.
They know everything that moved in the air, airplane, missiles, guided bomb, and they are capable to intercept them.
The Russian know everything, what happens on 9/17/18 night, but they are not telling everything. What they are telling us it is very little.
Showing just some frames while they have all the footage since IL-20 approached the danger zone and was shoot down (disappeared from radar).
What, a vulnerable IL-20 was doing in a war zone not escorted, we don’t know.
4 F-16 couldn’t deliver all the bombs missiles that hit Syria on the night of 9/17/18.
Did a S-200 missile hit the IL-20; yes there is a possibility. Did Israelis F-16 missiles hit the IL-20.Yes it is a possibility. Did a missile launched from French frigate hit the IL-20? Yes there is a possibility.
We never will know the truth. The only thing we understand is that the lost of 15 Russian with the IL-20, put the offensive in Idlib in a holt indefinitely.
Finally: All the destruction inflicted in Syria, during one-hour attack, by Israelis/NATO, it isn’t a violation of the integrity of a sovereign nation named Syria?
According to Saker “No”.
Because airplanes, ships, subs were in international waters.
This doesn’t surprise me. We live in times of Illusion, Deception and Diversion.
Very good questions!
We see only one version of the IL-20 downing story now .
Deception seems to be also the Russian conduct here.
Holding back something damaging could be a way to blackmail/control Israel in some way.
That is, holding back something damaging to ro about Israel that Israel knows Russia knows.
That is the classic blackmail scenario.
I wonder whether Putin knows of any Israeli involvement with 9/11. Just a passing thought.
What with so many Israeli Russians and Russian Israelis it might be relatively easy to penetrate Mossad and other Israeli government and other entities.
“…. why on Earth would Russia, for example, bomb Israeli territory and kill/wound Israeli civilians/troops? ”
Mr.Richardson, It is NOT Israel but a NATO country, same aggressive towards Russia and all not yet colonized countries.