[This column has been written for the Unz Review]
Yesterday (Sept 19th), I tried to post a short commentary suggesting that before we jump to conclusions about anything, we ought to wait for the fact to come out. But to no avail. The chorus of “Putin is a doormat!!”, “bomb Israel!!” and similar inanities is carrying on, louder than ever. Reading that crazy nonsense, I wanted to toss in a slogan, something like “Jew-haters and Putin-haters – unite!”. But then I realized that it would be futile because they have already united…
My friend Andrei Martyanov has tried to bring some logic and sanity into this pandemonium which I posted here (in spite of not normally doing reposts). Well, at the risk of being called a “gatekeeper” or a “cryto-Zionist”, I have decided to also try once more to bring this discussion into the realm of sanity, facts and logic.
First, let me start by a very simple and primitive question:
Why in the world has nobody considered that the Israelis might have truly screwed-up?
Seriously, I mean it. Unless you belong to the type of folks who believe that the Israelis are exceptionally crafty, smart and quasi infallible (there are such folks amongst both Jew-lovers and, more surprisingly, Jew-haters), this is a legitimate question, no?
What do we know for sure as of right now (Sept 20th)? We know that the Israelis did not give enough warning time to the Russians, which is in direct violation of an agreement between Israel and Russia. Do we know that they did it deliberately? No, we don’t. We really don’t.
Anybody with any military experience will tell you that what is known in the USA as FUBAR, SNAFU and “cluster****” is something all militaries do on a daily basis. Furthermore, the Israelis have had terrible screw-ups many, many times. Just a summary of all the screw-ups of the famous (and much over-rated) Mossad would take pages and include many outright embarrassing incidents (for a good laugh, just look at the inept Israeli attempt at assassinating Khaled Meshal!). So why is everybody assuming that the Israelis carefully planned the whole thing?
Next, let’s assume that this is simply the typical case of Israeli arrogance (not a myth!) and that they decided to inform the Russians as late as possible. Does that at all entail that the maneuver of the Israeli F-16s pilots to seek cover from the S-200 missile was something they had planned in advance? Does anybody bother to look at the actual (as opposed to Hollywood) record of the Israeli Air Force during past wars when they were actually challenged by a reasonably capable air defense? There is a detailed discussion (in Russian) about this here which can be summarized like this: as soon as the Israelis start losing aircraft their martial prowess rapidly vanishes. Now please recall this: the Israelis have had recent losses, some admitted, some denied, but there is no doubt that they are tense and very concerned. Bottom line: I would fully expect the Israeli pilots to freak out and seek cover as soon as they are told by their warning system that they are being painted by a radar in tracking mode (the S-200 has a semi-active radar homing guidance system). If that is the case, and I am not saying that this is the only possibility, then the fault is of the Israeli pilots, not of their commanders or the Israeli state as a whole. Yes, the command responsibility is the one of the state, but not the guilt for having engaged in such an evasive maneuver (besides, knowing the price placed by Israeli on goyim lives, this would be just so typical, would it not…)
At this point, I need to ask another question: what would the Israelis gain from shooting down the Il-20? They sure ain’t gonna frighten the Russians (Russian military don’t scare easy) and the Il-20 will be replaced. Scaring the Iranians or Hezbollah? Forget it – not happening. Maybe there was a real lucrative target that they destroyed? Yes, maybe, be so far we don’t know anything about this. So what would be the point?
Then the “sister question”: what would the Israelis risk by deliberately shooting down a Russian EW aircraft? Well, in theory, they would risk having their aircraft shot down and their airbases engaged with Russian missiles. That is highly unlikely, I will admit, and the Israelis probably understand the Russians very well (many of them being from Russia). But could they be sure that the local commanders would not order an immediate retaliation (as their current rules of engagement do authorize them to!)? Let me remind everybody that this Spring, the USA was not so sure at all, and following the words of the Russian ambassador that “not only missiles but their launchers would be destroyed” the USN and Air Force decided to shoot as little as possible and from as far as possible. As for the British sub, its captain decided to cancel the planned missile strike entirely (they were being shadowed by two Russian subs). Seems to me that the potential risks of that kind of operation would be pretty high, while the potential rewards rather unclear.
Those who insist that this was a deliberate Israeli act need to come up with a halfway credible explanation not only for how this was done, but also why this was done.
Now, like many others, I despise the Israeli racist, genocidal rogue state with all my heart. But that does not prevent me from being capable of imagining a scenario in which the Israelis simply screwed-up. Believe it or not, but my disgust for Zionist ideology does not at all entail a boundless belief in some Israeli infallibility.
Finally, let look at this: today (Sept 20th) an IDF delegation led by Air Force Commander Maj.-Gen. Amikam Norkin is in Moscow. Also participating in the trip are the Head of the Foreign Relations Division, Brig.-Gen. Erez Meisel and other officers from the Intelligence, Air Force and Operations Divisions. Does anybody believe that all these officers went to Moscow just to thumb their noses at the Russians? Or maybe they all traveled to Moscow to present some totally non-credible excuses which will only infuriate the Russians further?
My guess is that they have something exculpatory (at least in part) to show.
Putin-haters and Jew-haters (united, of course!) will immediately declare that the Israelis went to Moscow to pressure Putin into not giving in into the (very real) public outrage and calls for retaliatory measures. To this I will very simply reply: rest assured that there is a very powerful pro-Zionist 5th column in Russia which is already putting the maximal amount of pressure on the Kremlin and there is no need at all to send top IDF officials to do that (especially on Yom Kippur!).
This is probably due to my messy writing style, but very often when I say “A” some folks clearly hear “B” (or even “non-A”!), so with them in mind, I will be very very clear and spell it out: I am not saying that the Israelis did not deliberately shoot down the Il-20 and I am not saying that the Israelis are not responsible for the resulting loss of life and equipment.
What I am saying is that Putin, in contrast to the hordes of self-appointed armchair strategists, does have to look at all the possible options before deciding what to do next. Because even if we assume that the Israelis are irresponsible, arrogant, evil and reckless (which they are), this is not a reason for the Russians to emulate them or start a war.
If the Russians conclude that the Israelis did it deliberately, I will support a strike on Israeli air bases. If the Russians conclude that the Israelis cannot be trusted to abide by any agreements (which I think is indisputable), then I think that the Russians should declare an air exclusion zone over the Russian forces (a 100km radius or so). I also think that it is high time to keep a pair MiG-31BMs on 24/7 combat air patrol high over Syria (they can come quite close to replacing a much more expensive and vulnerable A-50U AWACS).
At this time (Sept 20th 20:37 GMT) all they have announced is that ““both sides emphasized the importance of the states’ interests and the continued implementation of the deconfliction system”. If that is all that the Russians decide, then I will find it wholly inadequate and I will predict a further surge in frustration against not only the government, but against Putin himself. But, for the time being, we need to wait and see what the Russian investigation will reveal. Only then can we begin cheering Putin or calling him names.
There is also this possibility: the Russians would decide on an air exclusion zone and tell the Israelis, but both sides would decide to keep this secret in order for Israel to save face (because if the Russians declare an air exclusion zone, this will create a safe heaven for Hezbollah and all the other militias which would be a political disaster for Bibi Netanyahu). So we might never find out.
Finally, I want to add one more thing which is rarely, if ever, mentioned.
The S-200 is a pretty old air defense system. We also know that it does not have a Russian IFF. However, the Russians have declared several times that the Russian air defense network and the Syrian one were integrated. This is what best explains, at least in part, the very high number of US cruise missiles intercepted in April. The problem is that the way the S-200 (and most modern air defense systems) works is that the S-200 is fully integrated into a larger air defense network administered by automated air defense management systems which is operated by a higher echelon air defense command. This means that the Syrian air defense crew did not simply detect the incoming missiles and fire off one of their own. At the very least, this decision was taken by a higher echelon Syrian air defense command. Now we know that the time was extremely short and, hence, the Russian air defense personnel might not have had the time to take protective action, especially not when dealing with a large, slow and vulnerable moving EW aircraft (the fact that this aircraft flew un-escorted is definitely a Russian mistake!). Still, we know that the Russians have many early warning capabilities which the Syrians do not have (AWACS, space based, shipborne radars, over-the-horizon radars, etc.) and there is a pretty decent chance that somebody could have done something to prevent what happened. True, since the Israelis and Russians had an agreement, the Russians therefore classified the Israelis as “non-threat”, but it does not take a genius to understand that four Israeli F-16 flying towards the Latakia Governorate are up to no good and that this warrants immediately going on full alert.
So this might be the reason why Putin spoke of “tragic circumstances”: there might be more blame to pass around than just piling it all up on the just the Israelis. By the way, even if true, none of this would in any way exculpate the Israelis for the very simple reason that had the Israelis warned the Russians on time this entire tragedy might have been avoided even if the prime culprits are cowardly Israeli pilots, less than competent Syrian air defense crews or too trusting Russians. By “warning” the Russians just 1 minute before the attack the Israelis created an environment in which such a tragedy simply had to happen. This is why I think that no matter what the Russian investigation find, anything short of an air exclusion zone over the Russian forces would constitute an inadequate response: the fundamental Israeli responsibility is already established. But what is still missing are the (important) details.
One more thing in conclusion: the last time the Russians made a deal with the Israelis, it worked remarkably well, let’s not forget that. The Syrian forces re-took control of their southern border without the Israelis doing anything meaningful to stop them. Let also remember that at the beginning of this war the usual chorus of Putin-haters was already screaming that “Putin disarmed and betrayed Syria!!” when the Russians removed the (useless) chemical weapons from Syria (thereby stopping an imminent US attack). When the Russians then proceeded to single-handedly save Syria from the “good” and “bad” terrorists, those who were screaming about betrayal remained silent and never admitted that they were wrong.
The truth is that no matter what Putin does, we can expect the chorus of Putin-haters to bellow at the top of their lungs “Putin betrayed X” (replace “X” with whatever you want). Yes, they are stupid and tedious, and nothing will stop them (I also suspect that a lot of that nonsense is machine generated, at least judging by the kind of repetitive crap the moderators constantly intercept on my blog). But for the rest of us, we need to remain critical of both Putin and Russian policies, but we need to do so by logically processing well-established facts, not by just waiting for whatever pretext to resume the usual mantra.
UPDATE: I have listened with great interest to the MoD briefing this morning and it rather obvious that the Israelis offered no convincing explanations to the Russians who spoke of “criminal negligence“, “misleading Israel information” and that “the blame for the Russian Il-20 aircraft tragedy lies entirely with the Israeli Air Force“. The Russian military has concluded that the Israeli actions were “a clear violation of the 2015 Russian-Israeli agreements” and that “the military leadership of Israel either has no appreciation for the level of relations with Russia, or has no control over individual commands or commanding officers who understood that their actions would lead to tragedy“. There is nothing at all in the MoD briefing which would in any way excuse the Israelis and, even more importantly, nothing which could leave any excuse for Putin not to take meaningful action in response. And, just to make things worse, the Israelis have not only denied any wrongdoing or mistakes, but have even added that they won’t change their policies in Syria (these guys always double-down).
In summary, we have a typical case of gross incompetence by the Israelis, followed by their usual chutzpah when caught. It will be very interesting and very telling to see what kind of measures Putin will order next. Personally, I can only repeated that in my opinion: that, as a bare minimum, Russia ought to declare an air exclusion zone of about 100km around her forces in Syria and declare that any Israeli aircraft entering that zone, or firing a missile into it, will be immediately shot down. Russia also should increase the number of Su-30SM/Su-35S in Khmeimim and place a pair of MiG-31BM (possibly based in Iran) on 24/7 combat air patrol high over Syria. If Putin fails to act this time, this will be the most damning evidence of the power of the pro-Zionist 5th column in Russia. We shall soon find out.
I think you give a pretty realistic scenario Saker. But God save the world if the pro-zionist lobby is as strong and influential in Russia as it is in the USA. This incident is not as bad but very similar to the USS Liberty where the Israelis attacked and killed US sailors on purpose and our US government covered for them and hushed it up. I have been trying to figure out US Mideast policy since the 1970’s and I can only come to the conclusion that Israel dictates to our leaders and they almost always comply. I sincerely hope that Russia is not in the same situation. Russia and the US should be allies and not in a cold war with each other which is almost exclusively the fault of the US.
Or I would response to Saker’s article more subtly using words of PCRoberts:
Does the Russian government not understand that Washington is conducting war against Russia, not against terrorists?
Probably try to read the sentence replacing “W.” by the “zionazis”.
The Russian Defence Ministry is going to be releasing its findings tomorrow (Sunday) on the war plane crash:
“The minute-by-minute time-line of the tragedy will be given with a presentation of objective data from the radars’ data handling system about the air situation, the ministry told…..”
I am afraid I have to disagree. If the Zionist lobby was strong in Russia, then Russia would not be in Syria, Putin would not have succeeded Yeltsin, and Russia would not have made a military, financial and economic recovery.
The official version of the incident states that four Israeli F-16’s used a Russian reconnaissance aircraft as cover for an attack as Syria, and that the Syrians mistakenly shot the Russian aircraft down. Well, it’s not impossible, as the S-200 has a range of 300 km. Yes, it’s an old Soviet design, but one which has been upgraded with new electronics. I find it difficult to believe that neither Syrian nor Russian radar operators did not know of the flight path of that Russian plane.
The article makes no mention of that French frigate. It fired at least one missile. Why ? What kind of missile did it fire ? Was it an AA missile, or a cruise missile ? I am still waiting for answers. Why the general silence on that French frigate ?
Today I have been surfing the Internet. More than one source has stipulated that it was in fact the French frigate which shot down that Russian reconnaissance plane, and this of course means that the Israeli attack was coordinated with NATO. This again would explain why Putin decided to play it cool, not falling for provocations.
What is with this French frigate nonsense? Why?
a)Why would the French incur the wrath of Russia. At what point do you believe they lost their minds?
b)If the French shot the plane down and Russia blamed Israel, WHY OH WHY OH WHY would Israel not say anything and accept blame? If the objective was to create a rift between France/NATO and Russia Then Why if the French shot the plane down would everyone cover it up? It’s mission accomplished is it not? Even if Putin denied it, if this was the objective of NATO and Israel why would they not simply out him?
c)Why was Israel the only nation to go to the Russians IMMEDIATELY? Guilty conscience no?
Why is it so hard to believe that the Israelis calculated that a Great way to overcome Syrian air defence (which is coordinated with the Russian systems) would be to hide behind the Russian plane on the way in and in fact, either the Russians or the Syrians screwed up or for some technical reason it just didn’t quite work out that way? Why is it difficult to believe that no matter how much you theorize, sometimes reality just wrong-foots you?
No, the Israelis had a “brilliant” Basic plan and they fucked it up. Immediately they panicked and were All over Russia and now there is a whole bunch of disinformation being churned out trying to make us believe that this actually went according to plan and wasn’t a GIANT mess up by the Israelis?
Please no caps – its like screaming. Mod
Wish I could upvote this comment x10.
This story about the French warship downing the plane (and how would the Fort Russ writer or whoever actually know this? Do they have secret channels to French naval command?) is nonsense. Much more likely in my opinion (but I can’t know for sure, any more than anyone else) is the Israelis tried to put the French ship in harm’s way by flying nearby. If the Russians attacked it, you get NATO responding and suddenly the Russians face withdrawing from Syria, or WW3.
Exactly, much more likely the Auvergne was used as cover by the Israelis. It’s the sort of “clever” action were used to from them.
Perhaps you can explain the following two points. First of all, what was that French frigate doing off the coast of Syria ? Secondly, even the Russians stated that their radars detected that the French frigate fired a missile. After that no more information.
The questions which I raised are perfectly logical. What kind of missile did the French frigate fire ? Was it an AA missile, and if so, what was the target ? The Russian reconnaissance plane ? If it was a cruise missile, what was the target ? Why was it fired ? Why didn’t other NATO ships fire any missiles, only the French ship ?
It is a fact that the French frigate fired that missile during the actual Israeli attack, which certainly means coordination. The unfortunate impression is that the French ship was set up for retaliation by the Russians.
Finally, you are asking why the French would incur the wrath of Russia. Maybe you should ask them. I find it strange that few people are asking the obvious question why they fired that missile.
A)How do you know a missile was actually fired by the French?
B)Why would it automatically mean that this is the missile that downed the Russian aricraft, not the Syrian missiles or even the Israeli missiles that we know were actually fired
C)You didn’t answer how you think it benefits anyone to cover it up if it was a French missile that downed the Russian aircraft?
C.1)It was the Russians who initially reported that they detected a missile launch from the frigate. The French denied this. I thought we were saying the Russians wanted to keep it quiet, so why would they report it? If the Israelis were using the Russian aircraft as cover for defending incoming missiles, why is it inconceivable that they used the French frigate as cover for their outgoing missiles?
C.2)Why would the Israelis accept all this heat by covering up the “fact” that the French actually downed the Russian plane? Like I said, is it not mission accomplished? According to your theory, it would only make sense for Russia and France to cover up the situation because they don’t want conflict. Everyone else, especially Israel would want the “fact” to be known.
C.3)If the French intentionally fired a missile to down this (low military target value) Russian aircraft why would they cover it up if they actually succeeded? It’s not like you plan to do something and then don’t know what to do if your plan succeeds. Fact is, the French would have known that if they intentionally brought down a Russian plane, there would be potential consequences, what are we saying was their plan for success? Hide under a rock? No, the French have not lost their minds I don’t believe.
D)Why are the French in the region you ask? Why is anyone in the region? Seems a bit silly to ask. The French, like the British and Americans were getting ready to pound the Syrian military if there was an attack on idlib.
Fact: Israel concocted a devious and criminal plan. This plan tried to make use of every unsuspecting, non-israeli-but-friendly-to-Israel piece on the board to Israeli advantage. A miscalculation was made. Now the music will have to be faced and no amount of squirming and wriggling around the facts and misdirections will save them from the Russian response. Or the NATO one for that matter. If it is the case they tried to involve France, the French will certainly not have enjoyed being pushed in front of the bear like that.
This is highly damaging to Israel but hugely beneficial to the rest of humanity.
Also, no one is mentioning the absolutely certain fact that the Russian plane prevented an Israeli plane being downed. That is a pretty massive fact to overlook and should direct an analysis of the possible scenarios.
Within the accepted ‘hiding in the shadow of the Russian plane’ scenario the Syrians actually did shoot with intent at (how many missiles) Israeli aircraft over international waters and that an international incident sufficient to start a war was actually in train. But for the Russian plane.
Following this line, it is consistent with the facts that the French ship fired the missiles that hit Syria (Russia’s first statement), that the Israelis working in conjunction with the French intended to draw fire and lose a plane or two, and that they intended to demonstrate that they been shot down over international waters while on exercise, having fired nothing at Syria. It is perfectly in keeping with Israel etc’s desire to initiate US intervention. Any other scenario has minor benefits for a war hawk.
The ‘series of regrettable circumstances’ is that the Il-20 ‘happened’ to be in the way (did it deliberately draw the fire?). If it wasn’t, the Israelis would almost certainly have lost a plane. That is a big deal to overlook.
Putin was chosen as Yeltsin’s successor precisely because he was “a cipher” and not a true Russian patriot according to documents released by the Bill Clinton Presidential Library: http://johnhelmer.net/the-love-that-dare-not-speak-its-name-the-secret-in-the-clinton-yeltsin-papers-which-the-kremlin-spokesman-regrets-to-see-exposed-is-the-love-of-submission/
There is not much to disagree on. I did not say the Zionist are as strongly entrenched in Russia as they are in the US, I was just hoping they are not. As for the French frigate, I would look to past history of the Israelis using whatever cover they are able to find to enable and divert blame for their actions. What is truth? and what really happened, I am clueless.
I don’t hate anyone and am definitely pro-Putin and pro – Russia.
But I found a very informative book written by a Jewish scholar (who survived a German concentration camp etc) ..who lived in Israel from 1941 until his death in 2001 (endorsed by Gore Vidal, Chomsky etc).
It really helps understand Jews – it’s shocking how much evil, racism, fraud, deliberate deceit and hatred is built into Talmund and other ‘holy’ texts they use for ‘moral’ guidance:
“…In one of the first sections of the daily morning prayer, every devout Jew blesses God for not making him a Gentile (non-jew). They also pray daily that Christians ‘may perish instantly’. A pious Jew must utter a course when passing near a Gentile (non-jew) cemetery whereas he must bless God when passing near a jewish cemetery. A Jew passing near an inhibited non-Jewish dwelling must ask God to DESTROY it. …There is also a series of rules forbidding any expression of praise for Gentiles or for their deeds, except where such praise implies an even greater praise of Jews….it’s forbidden to join any manifestation of popular Gentile rejoicing. …It must be emphasized that these instructions and customs DO represent CORRECTLY the teaching of the Halakhah (legal system of classical judaism) The rabbis and, even worse, the apologetic ‘scholars of Judaism’ know this very well and for this reason they don’t try to argue inside the Jewish community; and of course they never mention them outside it. Instead they vilify any Jew who raises these matters within earshot of Gentiles, and they issue deceitful denials in which the art of equivocation reaches its summit…according to Halakhah ‘mercy’ means only mercy towards Jews…
the Saker is very worried that any ‘miscalculated’ Russian response will lead to war. but that pouts the issue squarely in the hands of the Israelis and renders the Russians tided down, hands tied in the situation regardless of what the Israelis do.
what in heavens name is all this fear about war? I don’t understand at all…?
chances are regardless of what any one or nation does the conditions will precipitate and Israeli attack somewhere that will lead to armageddon.
what are the odds against that? I would not take a bet against armageddon! based upon what I know of the world of humans, history, the Khazars..armageddon is almost an absolute certainty. and the one option we have of saving the planet Putin and the Saker his major defender is pissing it away in the wind..by so far effective argument that ties Russia’s hands.
the Khazar freedom to do as it pleases in the world must be stopped..certainly stopped where it can be stopped. and Syria where the Russians have joined up in opposition. thats it! if we want to prevent war we must be truthful and accurate dealing with reality. the problems is Khazar movement and interest in the world.
the Anglo/Zionists are imperial and have global interests. they have ben knitting the world into an extremely exploited whole with they as the imperial exploiters extraordinaire. that is how they..parasitic, bleeding the planet systematically. they cannot live otherwise. they have nothing, can do nothing but what they do..parasitism. they must have the world as they want it, no alternative example can exist. they will do all they can to eradicate any such alternative
the Khazars have also committed vast crimes against humanity for which they must be called to account. if they lose their global power they will be so called to account with the obvious consequences. the Khazars cannot afford to lose their power. they simply cannot. so the way I understand them to this arrives at this obvious conclusion: the world must be a Zionist dictatorship or there will be no world at all. they are going to blow up the planet if they lose the the wars they are fighting to dominate the planet. there will be no multi-polar world each nation independent and living in a world that respects all nationalism
there it is right in front of our faces. the Zionist have developed their Sampson option for the purpose of blowing up the whole planet if they are going to lose. and this we are all aware of. to deny this is to be a Zionist stooge or a blind fool.
this is the civilization conflict going on..the end of parasitic capitalism with which the Zionist are socially contiguous.. or multi-polar respected nationalism with freedom for nations to follow whatever path of political economy they chose..capitalist, socialism etc.
this is it ..not a confrontation between peace loving Russia and war like Anglo/Zionist. it is the same confrontation between exploitative capitalist dictatorship and real social democracy we have been aware of since Marx, in its current up to dat shape and form. that is what the issue is..with all the marbles on the table. if anything about Putin’s policy freaks out the Anglo/Zionists, is its respected multi-polarity. that really turns back ‘globalization’ and frees up space for democratic revolutions to come.. and those current efforts like Venezuela struggling now under imperial attack
if Putin is sincere about multi polarity, the destruction of the American financial hegemony and the us dollar as reserve he should know what this means…all out war at some point. so I don’t know what all this fear about war is about, and not precipitating Khazar irresponsible response.
there is nothing irresponsible or crazy about the Khazars and any possible response of theirs. they don’t want to die but they can only live if they dominate the planet. and that is by survival interest. and that is the two pronged optional horn humanity appears to be on now..democracy or Anglo/Zionist Brave New World with amargeddon in the middle. the Zionist must behave as they do. they know what they are about and are not fooling around. they are prepared to go all the way. and so fear of war is ridiculous. you stand up or join up with the Zionist. you..we all.. are going to have to fight them anyway
Saker, the nugget of your piece is Russia, like the Israeli expert Yakov Kedmi said, is in a position to deny IDF any access to Syria, even Lebanon and the Golan, by their AF.
Perfect time for Russia to do just that.
Anything less is foolish.
Concurrent with that is to demand from Iran that it cease for a long period trying to use Syria as a base. It has won no right to do do. Under Iranian efforts, Syria was going to be lost in a few months if Russia hadn’t come to save Assad and the Syrian nation.
Syria deserves a time, maybe a year or so, free of this Israeli attacking and Iranian baiting.
Russia should insist. Get to the finish line. Start reconstruction. Bring the infrastructure back up. Welcome home all the refugees. Elect a government with wide participation.
There will be plenty of time for taking the Golan back, for purging the leftover insurgent AQ and ISIS proxies.
Get the US to leave. Get the Turks out.
All this falls on Russia one way or the other.
Freezing the IDF and Iranian combat is necessary to achieve any of it.
A NO FLY Zone is the start. Secret or not, the IDF has to stay out of the zone and cease its attacks.
Iran should also cease its insistence to base in Syria. Bringing hell down on Syria is not the act of a friend or ally.
Russia has been accommodating. It’s too costly. Time to write all the rules. Russia is the SuperPower. Act that way. Ground the IDF.
The Israelis are terrified of losing their ability to strike Syria. See to it that they do. That’s the price they have to pay, as their own expert feared would happen now.
I could not agree more.
If IAF is denied access to Syria across Lebanon, it is also denied access to Lebanon. This needs to be enforced.
With Israel bragging about how they’ve bombed in Syrian 200 times in the last 2 years, I think the Syrians would be justified at saying that any Israeli plane in range is declared hostile and will be fired upon. Don’t care if they are over Lebanon (which they do without Lebanese permission I believe), over international waters over the med. Anywhere. Perhaps maybe in the interest of not escalating too far too quickly, let them fly over Israel. Provided they don’t bomb Syria again from there.
I saw one completely unconfirmed rumor that Israel’s attack on the Damascus airport was targetting a cargo plane bringing in the Iranian version of the S-300. Could be nonsense of course. But then I saw an article where the Iranians were saying their version of the S-300 was an improvement on the Russian version. Don’t know if that’s true either, but I did take it meaning the Iranians are building their own versions of the S-300.
Which means its at least possible that Syria could get one or more S-300’s and not get them direct from Russia. If the Iranians have them, and enough to take care of their own defense against Saudi, American or Israeli attacks, then it does seem rather likely Syria will have them too. I don’t think Bibi is going to have much luck trying to talk the Iranians out of giving them to the Syrians because of Israel’s close relationship to Iran like he’s tried with Russia!
And, those things would scare the Israelis enough that they’d try to bomb them to keep them out. Then the notion occurs that perhaps one or both of these recent attacks might be related to that. There was something in Latakia that made the Israelis going right into the heart of the Russian air defenses while before they had tended to stay away and hit other parts of Syria.
The idea of Syria firing S-300’s at any Israeli warplane they can see and target would scare the Israelis and make a whole plane full of them fly off for meetings in Moscow. Maybe the ‘bringing an explanation’ part is just a cover story? Maybe they are scared because they know they missed on the Damascus attack, and that even if there was an Iranian S-300 in that building they claim to have destroyed in Latakia, then it is unlikely that the Russians will let them bomb there again to hit its replacement that would be sure to follow.
Interesting that you raise that.
The Israeli AF are especially keen on their yearly exercises in Greece for that very reason. Since the Greeks have S-300 apparently.
As far as I know, the purpose for the exercises in Crete was so that IAF could test all the signals emitted from the S-300. Keep in mind though that Greek S-300 is an antique as Greece has not updated anything on this system. Basically, Greece was forced by the Hegemon to mothball it. I also do not believe that Russians re-use codes for ever like. I would suspect the coded and operation to be different for each client. So, it would be my guess that the S-300’s that Russia uses in Syria and possibly Syrian S-300 is not the same as the Greek one.
Having said that, looking at the picture in the other Saker’s article I would say that, if this is what Syria is going to get it would be Antey-2500 or whatever-the-number. Why I say that? Russia offered similar unit to Iran as a better and utilizing newer technology unit, but Iran insisted on the S-300. S-300 as I understand is a wheeled unit, while Antey-2500 is a track unit. So, to finish my tirade, Antey-2500 is supposed to be a far better unit than S-300, which Greece has.
Agreed, it being made unequivocally clear that given Israel, not Iran, is the longstanding aggressor responsible for Russian deaths in Syria, Israel must be incapacitated and stopped now and permanently by Russia from committing further acts of war in Syria.
Nothing is to be gained by downplaying the horrendous Israeli crimes in Syria. The time is for abandoning euphemisms and speaking the truth to power.
Russia won’t tell Iran to get out of Syria. This is Syria’s right as a nation to ask for help from anyone they want. Russia will just not do that, interfere with another country’s affairs. Anyhow Iran supplies Hezbollah with support through Syria and Hezbollah has been critical in defending Syria against the terrorists. This is the main reason why the west has done what they could to overthrow Assad: isolate Hezbollah in Lebanon. This Iran-in-Syria threat told by the US and Israel is all a red herring anyhow. In addition to of course Russia Syria needs Iran and Hezbollah and so will not ask them to stop helping. It ain’t gonna happen.
“demand from Iran that it cease for a long period trying to use Syria as a base. It has won no right to do do.”
Iran and Syria have a mutual defence treaty and Iranian forces are there at the request of President Assad.
They have been there since before the Russian airforce came. Russia absolutely needs Iran not only for it’s unbeatable level of knowledge about the geopolitical situation right there on the ground but also to take part in the intelligence sharing and war planning between Syria, Russia and Iran
Importantly too Iran acts as a vigilant guard against terrorist infiltration into that vast and resource rich area that Iran occupies and it protects the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Considering that when NATO destroyed Libya in 2011 and then moved the terrorists to Syria Russia’s Medvedev supported the NATO attacks on Libya. Were it not for Iran and Syria the entire middle east would have been destroyed long ago and replaced by a massively expanded Israel
Thank God for Presidents Putin, Rouhani and Assad.
Iran has been subject to Zionist aggression since the year Stalin died (1953) and not a week goes by but they don’t intercept terrorists trying to cross their border to create mayhem.
The recent Caspian deal which forbids foreign military from entering the Caspian Sea would not have been possible without Iran.
Iran is protecting Russia’s southern flank.
Right now Russia is requesting Iran’s permission for an airbase in their country. Russia has also needed Iran’s cooperation and agreement to allow overflying of bomber planes and also missiles from Russian ships in the Caspian Sea
Not only is Iran continuing to support Syria but it is doing this whilst under severe US sanctions itself, sanctions which seek to destroy it’s economy and strangle it’s oil industry. Iran is also supplying humanitarian aid to the poor Yemenis and it has cleverly offered help to Qatar which is besieged by the Saudis
Without Iran, Russia’s mission to Kheimim would have been many times harder and if Iran fell and became victim to the Wahhabis the next step would be mass infiltration of Russia across the Caspian Sea and without the Iranian assisted Caspian Sea deal NATO would be helping the terrorists there too.
Iran is greatly respected by Russia and China and is on the point of being invited to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
We can see that despite the appearance of disarray among NATO countries when the “whistle blows” the US, UK, France Germany and others line up in lockstep to threaten Syria,.
This kind of unity militarily is what is needed amongst the multipolar countries and I am sure President Putin is well aware of this.
The situation in Syria now is that whilst success has been achieved against the proxies , NATO have replaced them as the obstacle now.
Russia cannot fight NATO.
Therefore what is need is more support for Syria from other countries to deter NATO and finish the job.
The AngloZionists are always trying to drive a wedge between the allies in Syria. Criticising Iran to me suggests a failure to understand the overall picture including the Zionist desire to bait Iran into retaliating against Israel which I am sure it would love to do but doesn’t.
I am not a Muslim but I have learned from Iran that Islam is a religion of peace and not the distorted violent insane belief system adopted by the terrorists.
Of all the bad stuff happening in Syria, Iran is part of the solution.
Thank God that Iran was able to help Syria stay alive long enough for the Russians to come – something Moscow just wasn’t able to do in 2011. We should be extremely glad Iran is doing what it does. Russia and Syria need all the friends they can get so I strongly disagree with your point about Iran and instead think that the countries which should get their forces out of Syria are Israel the USA, Turkey, France and Britain.
Totally agree. Thanks !
To hear now that it’s Iran’s fault… really sounds…
I agree with your analysis 100%.
Iran is not the problem.
From day one, Iran has sought to be a part of the soultion.
And it has contributed greatly in blood and treasure to to Syria’s defense.
The countries that have suppourted the “liver eaters” with both words and deeds and conspired to destroy Syria are the source of the problem, not Iran.
Mostly agree with this comment, but the occupiers and usurpers must be made to pay for the destruction wrought on the ME which the “west” assists with at their behest. Weirdly, the most reasoned minds of our day continue to refer to Palestine as “israel” apparently because a near 60-year-old vote at the “U.N.” handed over the land of an established nation to those with an irrelevant historical claim. Basically, slightly less than a few dozen corrupt, coerced or bribed persons representing their nations voted another fellow nation out of existence. How could that be? By what right did they have to order lands of the Palestinian nation surrendered? I’m near certain that if the vote were put then or today to the actual people of the world that this outcome would never have materialized or it would be summarily reversed. As for Jews having a historical claim to that land by biblical dictate, prior occupation or sympathy, who cares! If the nearly 60,000,000 Native Americans who historically occupied North America and were subjected to a genocide far worse than the Jews asked the U.N. for their land back, does anyone believe they would get it? The reason the occupiers and usurpers have groups like AIPAC constantly running around extolling the great virtues of their occupation is because its a psychological edge and some (most of the U.S. Congress) wholly subscribe to it. But the fact remains that both legally and ethically, there is no “israel” and the parties that think there is are at the root of all the problems in the ME and in some cases elsewhere. Maybe someone should organize a world vote using the voter roles of each nation and summarize the vote to one simple two-part consideration – “Should all Jewish occupied lands in the territory recognized as Palestine prior to November 29, 1947 be restored to the Palestinian people and should those lands be forthwith referred to and recognized as Palestine by the United Nations and the global community?” “Yes” or “No” I don’t mean to be off-topic but righting this historical wrong is the only way to reverse the evil winds that blow through the ME sowing discord, distrust and destruction. Meanwhile, it would help if the great commentators of our day were intellectually honest and ceased referring to Palestine as “israel”. For the record, on Saturday morning, 29 November 1947, against the will of the Palestinian people, the General Assembly in New York voted for the partition of Palestine and accepted Resolution 181. The vote was 33 in support of the Resolution, 13 members opposed it and 10 members abstained including Britain. One small country, Siam, was absent. And finally, by virtue of this comment, many would label me an anti-Semite, I am not.
If we are going to go with old historical claims …
Canaan for the Canaanites!
Don’t let the perpetrators of the war crimes of Jericho benefit from their misdeeds.
“Get the US to leave. Get the Turks out.
All this falls on Russia one way or the other.”
in hindsight I don’t think so. the Russian presence complicates the issue for the Syrians. Russia walks with its own bag of interests to protect and as a result has made all kinds of deals that put Syria at a disadvantage. Russians presence also ramps up the chance of world war 3
the war suggest that the Syrian people are totally capable of defending themselves and have no interests to protect but their own. so it would have been better to to equalize the situation for Syria vs its enemies..the USA/Israel/Turkey. Syria has no defence industry of its own capable of dealing with any and all of those 3 nations
so the best tactical move for Russia would have been to rm Syria with all its military needs and supplies. to give Syria the S-300 system and refrain from selling the S-400 to Erdogan just yet. Syria would have shot the Israelis out of the Syrian sky and kept them out. and Syria would not have made any deal with Erdogan but attacked him and drove him him out of Syria.
Russia could have stood by and watched enjoying its role of supplier. and the Russians would have made a lot of money supplying Syria of the financing they would have extended for the Arming Syria. and there would have been no possibility of a Anglo/Zionist clash. Russian would get involved only if there was combined massive attack by Nato/Israel
this can still happen. Russia can do the arming and leave Syria, and the Syrians can go about the business of taking back their country, focused entirely on the one job they have to do… win back and reconstruct their nation. and they would fight to the death for than…not hamstrung and kept back by Putin’s constant appeasements and concerns for his ‘Partners’
arms and training where necessary with new advanced weapons systems. that is all the Syrians need
that ain’t gonna happen – that Russia denies Israel access to Syria. I’d rather see Russia bomb any Israeli planes that deliver missiles to Syria – you may say that’s the same thing – but it ain’t –
Russia needs – and has needed for a long time – to STOP Israel – with the same means Israel uses to stop everyone else – this is so much like the USS Liberty – even if people like Saker and his commendable friends – say its different – who cares if Israel says ‘but it was an accident’ – for one I don’t believe it – and if you were married to one of the people that was killed – it wouldn’t matter if somehow Israel could prove it was an accident to hide underneath a passenger jet – while bombing – when are people going to STOP the criminality – of Saudi Arabia – btw – Germany just sold Saudi Arabia and sh*tload of weapons – to bomb defenseless Yemenis – ???????
Israel and Saudi Arabia could be stopped tomorrow from all their crimes if the world would get MORALS
we understand when people make mistakes. the world public is watching and they were angered in chorus to israel’s treachery. this is the main issue. the world view is the jews can never be trusted and like their american counterparts, are not agreement capable. they were enjoying the free pass the russian navy patrolling on syrian coast gave them because of the high level coordination between putin and bibi. the russian chain of command certainly knows this agreement therefore ignoring the 4 f16s fly by carrying out their merry ways. so because of this agreement, still the buck stops at putin. lets understand the whole situation by just using our simple common sense. the thing is putin is rowing his boat simultaneoulsy on two rivers. he is allowing bibi to attack iran syria and upgraded the s200 to defend these attacks. in the end putin got a dose of his own medicine by sacrificing 15 specialist lives by just absolving israels heinous criminal act. we’ll see how good are his next moves in this exciting game of chess. all i can say is his judo didn’t looked well this time because of treachery. i don’t believe in mistakes in that operation. it was a deliberate move. and the generals going to russia to explain to putin? the talmudic judahists in tel aviv have been speciliazing on this act hundreds of years ago. we will see in the following days, how good the improved security will be noticed by everyone. but no tangible disciplinary action against bibi is just waste of time and it is all plain to see as “scarecrow” tactics by putin. i am not a russian but losing a russian life in this fight between good and evil is terribly bad.
A homonym is where two words sound alike. There, their, they’re etc. I have to check all my writing b/c I write what I *here* when I talk to myself, and this type of error always creeps *inn. * Spell check doesn’t help.
I agree with your reasoning, Mr. Saker, sir, how this incident is most likely a series of screwups commencing with Israeli arrogance. However, did you mean to call Israel a whore?
or the Israeli state as a hole.
“The chorus of “Putin is a doormat!!”, “bomb” … is orchestrated by the AZC. Like the previous chorus of “Bombombombom Iraq” was sung by McCain and the Yahoo but orchestrated by the AZC.
Les chiens hurlent mais la caravan s’enmarche.
Let the dogs bark the lion is still the king.
But still no mention of the French, and the missiles they fired according to the Russians. I don’t believe we have an understanding of what happened yet – we may never have that.
That might give us an idea of what actually happened, and that info won’t be out for decades, if we are lucky.
Exactly: what did the French frigate do?
Well said. What about the French missiles? And what about the UK fighters loitering over the IDF planes. I know less than nothing about these sorts of military issues, but I can’t deny a tone of “damage control” in this piece.
Also, isn’t this “accident” very, very similar to the one in April, when the Rus and West are squared off in the Eastern Med during the latest false flag, and then ( am i recalling this correctly) the IDF lobs a missile into the Syrian base (T-4?) where Rus had personnel, nearly triggering a war.
I think we will know whether Russia declares, and with good reason, an air exclusion zone of 100 km or more, or less, by the reduced number of Israeli strike against targets inside Syria.
Time will tell us all we need to know.
With the utmost respect for anyone who is adept at languages such as yourself, and in full recognition that English is not your native language, I point out the following error: You referred to, “the Israeli state as a hole.” At least, I assume that it was an error. Very comical, indeed.
As a former aviator, I would like to point out that to have planned combat maneuvers in the exact manner as they have been described would have been unlikely simply because the location and timing would have been unpredictable. This is not to say that the maneuvers were not intentional, but rather that they might have been opportunistic rather than planned. And this assumes that it was a SAA missile that hit the aircraft. Is that actually a proven fact?
I think this is what the Saker is saying. The Israeli pilot chose to risk downing the IL-20 instead of risking losing his plane (and perhaps his life).
Unlikely that he would have lost his life- if there was time to take evasive action there was enough time to operate the ejector seat. Maybe you can enlighten us on that?
I know this thread is about Israel (which always steals the limelight) but surely France and Britain are a far more serious issue. For the RAF and a French gunboat to simultaneously attack Syria without provocation or warning is an act of naked aggression. France and UK are the two principal Zio-Capitalist countries, where sit French Baron Rothschild and English Lord Rothschild, respectively. Unless these two countries are summoned promptly by the UN to stand before the bar of world opinion and be disciplined for disturbing world peace, F & UK will be enboldened to summon their big dumb dog U$A, and yesterday’s little sneak attack will grow into tomorrow’s big Resource War _ad majorem gloriam Rothschildiensis_.
Yup….I see no launch sources destroyed …as previously stated would happen.
Correct. While the Israel is the usual culprit, there are other things to consider. Some people suggest the French fired their missiles in coordination with Israel. I suspect, that both (Israel and France) used the Israeli F-16’s as diversion to allow the French to destroy some ammo depot (or whatever it was) in Lattakia.
On the other hand, Israeli planes hiding behind Russian is another thing all together. My question is, which sort of doubles what Saker said regarding Putin’s comment, what was Russian crew doing? Sleeping on the job?
So, repeating after Saker, I’ll say there is likely more blame to go around. And likely more “f-up” story to be applied to both parties “Russian and Israeli”. I do not doubt that someone’s head will roll in Russia as well. This is why it is wise for Russia not to use the “knee jerk reaction” as some of the guilt for this unfortunate accident may lie with Russia. You notice I call it “accident” and not incident, as I am beginning to think that this is what it was.
Have to agree with other posters – ground the IDF at a minimum. No matter if this was a cock-up on the part of Israel, its pilots, the SAA decision-makers, or Russian failure to provide adequate protection for its EW plane, or a combination of all of the above, the underlining fact is that the arrogance of the Israeli planners in giving only one-minute notice of the attack is inexcusable and ultimately placed all parties at risk of demonstrating their incompetencies/failures/errors through this tragic incident.
And whatever one might say about Israel’s intent, the fact remains that the decision to give one minute notice was not an error, it was a premeditated decision that the planners had to know carried with it great risk to everyone concerned.
I have a problem….why Israelis pilots did not try to shoot down Syrian’s missile…could they?
Thanks Marian, not possible as small fighter planes do not carry weapons and systems with that capability. Missile interception currently relies on large ground based radar tracking and associated bulky rocket launchers.
Some systems exist to launch a decoy of clouds of metallic flakes to confound target systems but not enough space in a fighter jet to hold one of those as far as I know.
Israeli pilots either took refuge behind the Russian plane or were doing a high speed dash for home.
Marian , why Israel should attack Syrian Missile (and stop it from hitting Russia reconnaissance jet )? Don’t you know that the war in Syria is Israeli zionists’ (Rothschild clan =NATO ) war against Russia ,NOT against ISIS terrorists ? — https://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/10/21/breaking-story-israeli-general-captured-in-iraq-confesses-to-israel-isis-coalition/
read . . .
. . . past Intel IS
WHICH ‘ s n o t jusMor’n’M0R’0N
With what??? Aircraft have jamming and chaff systems. Thats it.
Nice work.Now with Russian troops at the Israeli-Syrian border in the Golan, that 100 km no fly zone would include some of Israel. I think we now know what VVP meant by “Everyone will see what we have done”. Putin will also allow BiBi to save face,one more pawn in his pocket. I got to tell you, it is a great time to be alive. We are getting treated to a masters course in statesmanship,diplomacy,and military competence
Yeap! I agree. I see the isrealis totally humiliated in this case. However, as literary Dr NG Maroudas (above) states, France and the UK must not be ignored…
I would certainly agree that to turn in such a manner when seeing the air defense radars on them and missiles imbound makes sense. A turn to the right at that time both took them behind the IL-20 and back home to Israel. Thus, what The Saker says makes sense.
I would still put my money on this being pre-planned. But, I do not think the intention was to deliberately bring down the IL-20. I just think the Israelis thought they were being clever. They were bombing into a guarded region. They were bombing into a region where they haven’t bombed before. Thus my guess is that they thought they were being clever by putting the IL-20 in the way. My guess is that they thought that this clever trick would keep the Syrians from firing at them. The Israelis thought that the Syrians would read the situation and realize that firing would put the Russian plane in danger and thus the Syrians would be prevented from firing. In a word, the Israelis were too clever.
Notice all the statements from Israel about the poorly trained Syrian air defense. They are basically saying “But they weren’t supposed to fire!”
There are several ways the Isrealis could know in advance that the IL-20 would be there. Perhaps it always flies a patrol based on the length of time it can fly on a tank of fuel. Watch it take off, know its going to be landing 6 hours later. Or, perhaps it flew a routine schedule? Or maybe it always does a certain manuever when its just beginning to return to base, and this gave the Israelis enough notice to time their attack as they did?
Then again, they may very well have just screwed up.
I still don’t believe escorts are really an issue here.
If the IL-20 had been closely escorted by a Russian fighter, that just makes a bigger radar cross-section for the Israelis to fly behind. Instead of flying behind a IL-20, now they are flying behind both an IL-20 and a fighter.
If a couple of Russian fighters had been circling above the plane and airfield keeping an eye on things, they couldn’t have done more than just watch. They would basically just be observers.
The only way Russian fighters can make a difference in this situation is if they turn to engage the Israeli fighters as they make their attack run. Which they were not going to do in any case.
Fighter planes only really “protect” things by shooting other things out of the air. Or by at least having the threat of shooting them out of the air.
I was flying a delayed business trip when the planes started flying again after 9-11. First there was the part where walking in front of a bunch of nervous looking 18 year old National Guardsmen with loaded machine guns made me more nervous than any fear of a terrorist.
But then we were also told to reassure us that we were safe and business could go on as normal because now there were American fighter planes flying over American cities. I remember looking out the window and seeing one. Then, since I have an active imagination, I started to imagine a situation where a bunch of guys armed with box cutters suddenly stood up in first class and started to take over the plane. The question I asked myself was “OK, now what is that fighter plane over there going to do to protect me from those guys with box cutters.” Obviously not much.
The obvious answer was that those fighter planes were not there to protect me, but to protect the White House or similar such targets. If there were guys with box cutters taking over the plane I was on, that fighter plane out the window was going to blow them out of the sky, and me right along with them. I didn’t feel particularly protected by that fighter plane.
But the basic lesson learned is that fighter planes only “protect” by blowing things out of the sky. Or at least threatening to do so. Just having it fly along outside the window doesn’t really actually do much to protect.
Chucky, I actually wonder if there were any fighter planes protecting the IL-20. What I believe is this:
IL-20 should have called for fighter escort as soon as F-16’s were discovered in the air. Now, there are two questions. F-16’s may have been considered “no threat” – Why?
I also believe that as soon MIGs or SUs would have been in the air, F-16’s would have retreated immediately.
So, this may have been the problem Putin referred to. Wrong operational procedure?
Also, it’s very likely that Russian IL-20 was flying like a clock, so NATO (including Israel) new exactly how to plan this provocative action, as I believe this to be a planned action with the French. Shooting down the IL-20 may or may not have been planned, possibly Syrian AA was not taken under the consideration, or perhaps it was assumed that Syrians would stand down in the presence of that unfortunate IL.
I also don’t believe the “one minute warning” is particularly relevant.
A Russian commander would never have been relying on information from a non-ally. I’d be very surprised if a Russian commander relied on getting information from an ally. But I’d be shocked if he said he was relying on a non-ally, which is the status of Israel despite all the screams about Putin-Bibi collusion.
A Russian commander would be relying on his own sensors. What he sees from his own radars and assets that shows up on his screens. He is not going to be relying on the Israelis to tell him something. Or if he was, I suspect a review board is going to look unfavorably upon that.
It is a mistake to try to be cute in such a way. The Japanese tried it at Pearl Harbor. The cute Japanese plan was to have diplomats declare war half an hour before the Pearl Harbor attack. Then someone in Tokyo micro-managed security at the DC embassy and decreed that no trained typist could see the secret declaration of war in advance. The delays caused by that meant the declaration of war was delivered half an hour after the attack on Pearl Harbor instead of before.
Trying to be cute then justified in American minds everything done to Japan in response. If you had tried in 1945 to tell most Americans (but not all) that dropping the atomic bombs on Japan was wrong, likely the first response heard back would have been about the “surprise attack at Pearl Harbor”.
And I suspect that even if the Japanese had typed their message faster and delivered it before the attack, that wouldn’t have made a lot of difference in the anger felt towards Japan after Pearl Harbor.
And please, nobody take that bit of story-telling to think that I now am in favor of nuking Israel in response to this. Just trying to say that trying to be cute and give a very minimum amount of required notice can have very bad results over the long run. While I’m not in favor of attacking Israel over this, I also would imagine that this “1 minute notice” will be remembered in Russia for quite some time.
Thinking more about this one-minute warning, one place where it might come into play is that there will likely be some Russians military who wish they’d blown those planes out of the sky 61 seconds before their attack. Especially the people who shared a base with the people on that plane.
The whole idea of the deconfliction lines is to keep each side from accidently firing on the other. So, they tell them in advance where they are going to be. Right about now, I’d imagine the Russians are feeling like if the Israelis don’t notify us about a mission until one minute before missiles launch, then we are justified in shooting them down up to 1 second before they give us the expected notification. Or that they look back and feel as if they had done that they would have been justified.
Of course, in trying not to escalate things, the Russians likely had rules of engagement that said not to fire until after the Israelis did. And they seem to have rules that say only fire if Russian targets are attacked. The Israelis appear to have counted on this in their planning to give notice only one minute ahead. They were obviously not afraid that the Russians would just open fire on un-announced planes. Telling one phone number about the attack one minute in advance does not leave time to get the word to the field. To me that says that for other reasons the Israelis were sure the Russians would not fire at them while they had a clear shot within easy range of an S-300 or better before the F-16s got behind the IL-20.
While I don’t want to see WW3 begin, at the very least Putin should remind the Israelis that the deconfliction lines are there to prevent accidents, and that if the Israelis want to play games around them, well then accidents can happen. Especially when in hind sight a lot of Russians at that base wish they’d fired at the last unannounced Israeli planes to keep their mess hall buddy alive.
See, the enemy has been given time to make mistakes and, thus, to be put down gently. Mr Putin has a good excuse now to upgrade the Syrian S-200s to S-300s and S-400s. Patience (wise patience!) indeed wins.
“It is a mistake to try to be cute in such a way. The Japanese tried it at Pearl Harbor”.
Actually, the Japanese believed that a surprise attack at Pearl Harbor was essential. They knew perfectly well that, in a prolonged war, American industrial might would crush them easily. And they knew the Americans had good ships and pplanes and would fight well. The Japanese thought their only chance was to launch a devastating surprise attack to destroy the whole US Pacific Fleet, which would buy them a year or so in which to negotiate some kind of peace deal.
As one Japanese naval officer wrote, they understood that they must win every single battle or encounter if they were to have any chance of achieving even their limited goals. So they had no choice but to launch a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.
One thing more. FDR deliberately forced the Japanese to attack, and (given his very strong background in naval warfare) he must have been sure where they would strike. In 1905, when the Japanese attacked and severely damaged the Russian Fleet at Port Arthur without any declaration of war at all, FDR was among those who chuckled at their cleverness and the humiliation of the Russians. Are we to believe that he had forgotten all that by 1941? I think not.
Especially as FDR had arranged preliminary orders for 150 aircraft carriers (alone) by the summer of 1940!
See “Day of Deceit: The Truth about FDR and Pearl Harbor Paperback” by Robert B. Stinnett, which will tell you all this (and more than you could ever want to know about Pearl Harbor) with exhaustive sources.
I realize that this is sort of off topic, but I read somewhere that US actually captured some Japanese communications regarding this attack, but they chose not to react in order to have an excuse to enter the war.
On the 19th of November 1941, the very same day that HMAS Sydney was sunk, Lt. Com. Nave RAN, decrypted a message in the Japanese consular code TSU, explaining that should hostilities be initiated, involving a “Japanese-American crisis,” a subsequent “execute” message would read “Higashi no kazeame” — “East wind rain”. The ‘execute’ message was intercepted at Park Orchards near Melbourne on Thursday, the 4th December 1941.
British Intelligence had already found out about the plan to attack Pearl harbour through a triple agent and had told the US. The US then removed almost all ships of consequence from the harbour, leaving enough to fuel sufficient outrage to be able to enter the war officially.
The one-minute warning is critically important. There is a deconfliction agreement in place between Russia and Israel. You state state tat Russia can not afford to trust such agreements. Not true aat all. If the two parties to thaat agreement can’t trust each other to uphold it, the agreement could not exist. When the Israelis notify the Russians tht they are carrying out a mission in area X at a certain time, the Russians rely upon that notice to clear the area. Conversely, if they are not notified, the Russians trust that nothing will endanger their operations in a certain area and will carry on.
These are international waters over which the Israelis and Russians fly (in this case), so each has the right to fly in this area without challenge – unless they are on a mission in which cae each party relies heavily on the other to warn it so they can remove their aircraft from danger.
Contrary to your opinion, this system relies heavily on trust. Israel broke that trust when they gave only a one minute warning.
Excelent and good. Thanks!
James Speaks :
” I agree with your reasoning, Mr. Saker, sir, how this incident is most likely a series of screw-ups commencing with Israeli arrogance. ”
What about the Syrian war ? No Plan A accomplished, no Assad must go and replaced by ISIS or Al-Qaeda !
No Plan A accomplished,no taking over the whole Golan heights and beyond due to continuously terrorists attacks on Israel .
After Plan A and Golan Heights in possession ,no Plan B,replacing ISIS or Al Qaeda with a Muppaphone government like so many others in the region:
Instead of all this ,Israel got Russian military bases,Russian Police even in Golan,Iranians and Hezbollah,Assad stronger than ever ( Obama did go,even Trump might do it )…so many screw-ups.
I don’t think Israel will let this continue. No matter if Russia will respond or not to all kind of provocations,they will try to get US and Rothschild minions UK and France in a global conflict with Russia sooner rather than later.
Saker, I have enjoyed your writing and am a regular reader of your site. That being said, what are you doing? Your efforts to paint people who have been warning for some time that the Russian strategy in Syria is leading to either war or defeat as being “Jew haters” or “Putin haters” has been somewhat confusing. This article has done nothing but aggravate the confusion.
First off, the problem with the downing of the IL-20 is not that it was “engineered” by the IDF on purpose. I don’t believe for a minute that there was any plan to intentionally down this aircraft and I find arguments along that angle to be quite unpersuasive. So your question about why the Israelis would want to do such a thing completely miss the point that people have been trying to make. The IDF pilots did what any pilot in a combat situation would do…they attempted to use the “terrain” to mask their attack as best they could (terrain including other aircraft or vessels in the area). The problem is that this attack took place at all!
There was no accident that caused this strike on Latakia over the very heads of the Russians in their two main bases in Syria. This was a deliberate provocation. Why would the Israelis seek to provoke the Russians? This should be obvious enough…because their entire strategy is based upon keeping the war in Syria going and eventually dividing Syria up into small weak mini-states. The Idlib deal has not just delayed a US attack on Syria…no what is planned is not an attack, but a massive intervention by the US military to reverse the fortunes of their jihadi allies and get them back in the game. Note that I say it has “delayed” that intervention. It has not stopped it.
Putin’s failure in Syria is due to his failure to draw clear and rational red lines and to enforce those red lines. It is really that simple. Putin knew when he intervened in Syria that his expeditionary force there would never be able to match the firepower that the Anglo-zionists could bring to bear in the region. This intervention was always wholly dependent on the ability to maintain the belief in the minds of the military planners in Washington that the Russians were prepared to go to war for Syria and thus deter direct Anglo-zionist intervention against the SAA.
By entering into arrangements with the Israelis, who are clearly the driving force behind the war in Syria, that allow them to not only bomb Syria with impunity, but with actual Russian cooperation, Putin has created a situation in Syria where there are no clear Russian red lines and hence no way to enforce them. This has led us to a situation where the testing of the Russians by the Anglo-zionists has steadily increased looking for the real Russian red lines. What they have no discovered is that they haven’t been able to find any “real red lines”.
I recall Saker stating the the real Russian red line was that they would not accept anything that put their forces in danger…but that is clearly not the case as recent events have established. So my question for Saker is, where exactly are these Russian red lines? Where is the line beyond which the Russians are prepared to go to war? I can’t honestly tell you that there is such a line…and I don’t believe that the military planners in Washington have been able to find that line either. I cannot imagine a more dangerous strategic situation than the world’s two principle nuclear powers being unable to discern each other’s red lines in a theater of war where their respective forces are operating in close proximity to each other.
I have seen a lot of praise for Putin every time he “avoids being drawn in” by this or that provocation. It is true that Putin’s course in Syria has necessarily required him to avoid certain “traps” by not reacting as expected to various provocations. Each time he has “not responded” to a provocation, many of us have pointed out the danger of not maintaining Russia’s ability to deter the Anglo-zionists, we have been dismissed as just not understanding Putin’s brilliance. But no more Saker. We are now beyond the point where anyone can reasonably argue that the Russia can continue to deter the Anglo-zionists in Syria. The only thing worse than not enforcing your red lines in this kind of situation is not having red lines that your adversaries can readily discern. That is precisely where we are in Syria today.
My prediction, as previously stated, is that there will be a massive US intervention in Syria within the next 30 days. The US will not directly attack the primary Russian bases, but they will mercilessly go after the SAA, the Syrian government and Assad himself. They will seek to reverse the fortunes of the jihadi army in Idlib and I expect to see a major jihadi offensive against Aleppo in the wake of those US strikes. The Russians will not respond and will be reduced to hunkering down in their bases and hoping not to be struck by an errant projectile. At this point Russian attempts to enforce these red lines that nobody can see will probably be futile and will only lead to the destruction of the Russian expeditionary forces and perhaps to a nuclear holocaust. I hope I am wrong, but if the Russians cannot find a way to establish these red lines and re-establish their ability to deter the other powers, this is going to end very badly.
So please stop with the assertions that the people criticizing Putin about his Syria policy are some how “Putin haters” or that we are somehow clamoring for reckless military action to fulfill some irrational bloodlust. These criticisms are justified by the facts and even you yourself have admitted much of what I have set out above regarding the nature of the Russian intervention in Syria. Things are now beyond scary…
You could be right. There is a big exercise planned to be held in Ukraine next month.
Why not take the opportunity to attack on two fronts?
“The problem is that this attack took place at all!”
Yes Bob, this is THE point which induces everything else.
Your analysis makes a lot of sense. I also find the main problem that the Israelis dared to attack over the sky of Russian facilities in Syria, and not only, but that the pilot, once at risk of being obliterated, do not aborted the attack but instead decided to put the IL20 as target by hiding behind it with the result known by all.
One would say that the Israelis were expecting a high reward ( like a full out NATO attack to cover them ) to decide trying this “hail Mary”…..
Going to Moscow with all the main staff of the IDF and all that after causing the tragedy ( although we must recall that there have been more Russian tragedies in this war and, nontheless, Putin did not started WWIII after all…) is not but an intent to gain time for the general offensive directed by the US…
Anyway, could well be the case that Putin accedes to all this theather in order to, at his own, gain time for the coming offensive…..( for which the Russian Army is obviously preparing as the major military drills after WWII have shown it…) maybe till the mid-term elections in USA to see what happens there?
If you leave the window open in the night so that your “friends” can come and rape your wife, what could go possibly wrong?
Can Russia/Putin’s duplicity in Syria always be explained with “Putin judo/chess master” kind of arguments? For how long?
Cui bono? The only winner from all this mess are the Israelis. Some food for thought.
Great post Bob, especially comment about missing Russian red lines.
On another note, has anyone noticed that Pentagon was the first one who announced downing of Russian plane by Syrian missile? Even before Russian MOD. Very strange.
A helpful comment from Bob, I could never really swallow the idea of aggressive might as a deterrent.
The ”snap drills” in the Mediterranean have bought Putin some time. Hopefully he makes good use of it as who knows what might happen after the 26th when the drills end.
Excellent post, Bob.
You ask some very interesting and important questions and before I used to have the same thought process as you, but now I am reanalyzing my thoughts based on what I believe the Russians are trying to do.
And here is my rant, I hope it makes sense…….There is something that everyone in this blog needs to know:
We, the people reading and commenting on these blogs do not know what is happening behind closed doors within the ministries (including policymakers, strategists, military) of all these countries involved in Syria and what is being communicated and agreed upon between these countries.
“and I don’t believe that the military planners in Washington have been able to find that line either”
How do you know this ? …. Do you think that these lines are not communicated by the Russian ministry of defense to the Americans ?
Don’t you think that within the Pentagon and the US President’s National Security Council (including Bolton) there is a struggle between people who want to preserve deconfliction agreements with the Russians, and others who want to entirely sabotage and escalate the situation ?
What about The Security Council of the Russian Federation, including Shoigu and his deputies/advisers?
They are the ones who decided to go to Syria in the first place.
They didn’t have to go to Syria…but they decided that it was in the best interest of the RF for whatever reason.
Don’t you think they are aware of the struggles taking place within their US (and other countries) counterpart’s agency’s ?
Don’t you think they haven’t calculated or made estimations for losses that would have to be sacrificed in Syria ?
Don’t you think they have made estimations of how many Russians can still die without the Russian public uproar/protests ? Basically how much Russian dead the public is still willing to accept ?
Citing Wikipedia (I know, I am lazy):
“As of 17 September 2018, there have been 108 officially confirmed Russian Armed Forces fatalities in the war”. …….by the way this is not including the 92 military personal that died in the Black Sea flying to Syria.
With all due respect to the Russian casualties, this number historically speaking is “peanuts” compared to what the Russians/Soviets have sacrificed in past campaigns……And the ministries know this and the Russian public know this too.
The results of the cost-benefit analysis that I am sure the Russian ministries continuously update is extremely good in terms of power projection (foothold on the Mediterranean and RF’s underbelly), rotating troops, Syria being one big giant Weapons bill-board, halting gas pipeline to Israel/EU, influence on Turkey, halting Gulf plans. etc. etc……..Historically speaking, this has probably been one of the most successful campaigns in the history of the Russian/Soviet state..
God knows how big their matrix table of factors is and how many multiple criteria they have in their analysis.
There are further what-if scenarios ! ….What if the Americans go nuts, what if there is an Israeli faction who are allied with Americans and want to undermine Netenyahu, try to sabotage him, etc.
What if US-Nato does go all out on the Syrians ? …….Do we stick to our bases to at least keep Mediterranean bases and wait it out ? (Duuuh, of course)….or do we go all out suicidal mode ? (LMAO)
Russia knew going into this that they do not have the upper hand……Syria was a calculated risk that the Russians took. The Russians will not “enforce” anything they are not capable of enforcing. Obviously, this was part of the deal within the RF’s Security Council and Ministry of Defence.
Also it seems obvious that the RF’s Security Council and ministries deems it in their interest to work with the Zionists on whatever level. Even if we do not like that or agree with that. It is not in our hands. Furthermore, as the Saker has mentioned there are Zionist Russian actors that have influence within the Russian agencies and ministries (finance, energy, etc.).
First off Bob made my thoughts much more eloquently than I ever could but u ask questions Harry that are obviously unknown:
“Don’t you think they have made estimations of how many Russians can still die without the Russian public uproar/protests ? Basically how much Russian dead the public is still willing to accept ?”
Er. no or why the constant unprovoked attacks?
“With all due respect to the Russian casualties, this number historically speaking is “peanuts” compared to what the Russians/Soviets have sacrificed in past campaigns……And the ministries know this and the Russian public know this too.”
This may be “peanuts” but believe u me that as a Canadian ex military member that has lost 160 or so members in the Afghanistan war fighting for the US any “small”# is remembered very very seriously even by an uninformed populace.
“There are further what-if scenarios ! ….What if the Americans go nuts, what if there is an Israeli faction who are allied with Americans and want to undermine Netenyahu, try to sabotage him, etc.”
Realy???Based upon what alternative Harry Turtledove fiction?
“Russia knew going into this that they do not have the upper hand……Syria was a calculated risk that the Russians took. The Russians will not “enforce” anything they are not capable of enforcing. Obviously, this was part of the deal within the RF’s Security Council and Ministry of Defence.”
Yet why bother if the intent isn’t to win? If keeping US proxies on a treadmill in a preferred geographical location was the endgame why bother?
“Yet why bother if the intent isn’t to win? If keeping US proxies on a treadmill in a preferred geographical location was the endgame why bother?”
To win what ?? ….This is not a computer game, a zero sum, winner takes all contest.
Below I am stating what I believe are the facts (again, not what I believe is right or wrong),
The Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War began in September 2015, after an official request by the Syrian government for military aid against rebel and jihadist groups.
“Shortly after the operation began, Russian officials were cited as saying that, apart from fighting terrorist organisations such as ISIL, Russia′s goals included helping the Syrian government retake territory from various anti-government groups that are labelled by the U.S. and its coalition as ″moderate opposition″, a broader geopolitical objective being to roll back U.S. influence.
In his televised interview broadcast on 11 October 2015, Russian president Vladimir Putin said the military operation had been thoroughly prepared in advance; he defined Russia′s goal in Syria as “stabilizing the legitimate power in Syria and creating the conditions for political compromise”.
– The Russians did not agree that they would guarantee to liberate the entire country from rebels for the Syrian government.
– The Russians did not agree that they would protect Syria from US or Israeli forces.
– The Russians did not agree that they would fight NATO to save Syria.
– Russia wants a political settlement after having changed the reality on the ground with their military intervention.
Russians will only strike NATO if there forces are directly attacked by NATO, and they will attack proportionality. If this causes NATO to escalate, then the Russians will not hesitate to escalate too.
I think we can cut to the chase here fairly quickly.
1. The forces Russia have deployed into Syria are in effect a classic trip wire force. Such a trip wire is only effective so long as your enemy believes that you are prepared to go to war to protect that force and their mission.
2. Deploying a trip wire force requires that there be clear and discernible red lines, that if crossed, result in immediate escalation on your part. Otherwise, it is not really a trip wire force, but is instead just a deployment into a dangerously exposed position.
I think everyone can agree that the Russian force structure in Syria was not designed for a direct conflict with the US/Israel/NATO and that they are in fact a trip wire force. The presence of Russian forces was intended to do two things, first it was to help the SAA reverse their fortunes in this war and avoid their collapse. Secondly, they were intended to deter the Anglo-zionists from directly intervening against the SAA, or in other words to act as a trip wire force.
Now the concern that I and others have been expressing has to do with the ambiguity of these Russian red lines. At this point, nobody can tell you where the Russians true red line is in Syria. It may be true that the Russians communicated with the Americans and conveyed their red lines to them at the outset of this operation. What has followed has been a string of ever increasing testing of the Russians to see how far they could be pushed in reality. It is not clear at all that the Anglo-zionist forces have been able to establish where these Russian red lines are or if they even exist.
According to news reports from multiple sources from both sides, hundreds of Russians have been killed in Anglo-zionist strikes. Now most of those losses were among “contractors”, but they were still Russians fighting to achieve Russian goals in Syria and they are still dead. Two Russian military aircraft have been downed with the loss of their air crews. Hundreds more Iranian, Syrian or other allied forces have also been killed in these strikes with the actual acquiescence of the Russians. To date, with the sole exception of the economic retaliation against Turkey for shooting down an SU-24, there has been no discernible Russian retaliation, assymetrical or otherwise, to any of these provocations. The Anglo-zionist response has been to continue escalating the provocations, and yet they have been unable to elicit a Russian military response. So where are these red lines? How could the Americans or anyone else really know where these lines are or if they even exist? The answer is that they can’t.
The time to decide when, where and how to enforce these red lines and what they were was BEFORE the decision to intervene was made. I think we have seen enough evidence to reasonably conclude that this is not what actually happened. It appears that the Russians intervened in Syria with no clearly laid out escalation plan to respond to the Anglo-zionists when they tested the Russian red lines (something that they were clearly going to do). Instead, the Russians appear to have been literally flying by the seat of their pants.
Can you, or anyone else, put forward any evidence that the Russians will respond militarily when the US launches a massive assault on the SAA and the Syrian government? Is there any indication whatsoever that when the US begins flying close air support for the Jihadis that the Russians will react militarily? What if this upcoming US assault on the SAA is accompanied by a declared no fly zone demanding that the Russian air force may not fly over Syria without US permission? Will the Russians challenge this directly? What will they do when the US shoots down the first Russian flight to violate the no fly zone? What if instead of a no fly zone, the US simply announces that US troops are now embedded with the “rebels” in Idlib and any attacks by the Syrian or Russians against the rebels will not be tolerated as they put US forces in danger. Will the Russians curtail close air support for the SAA or will they bomb US forces on the ground and risk US retaliation?
Unless someone can point to some evidence indicating Russia is committed to go to war for Syria, the only rational conclusion at this point is that they are not willing to do so and hence there is no deterrent to US intervention against the SAA. Just avoiding pretexts for such a US intervention will not stop it. At the end of the day the Anglo-zionists control the main stream media (nearly worldwide) and they have no problem intervening without a real pretext. A completely fabricated one is sufficient as the entire MSM will broadcast the fabrication to the entire world as FACT. So it is not the lack of a pretext that prevents this massive intervention against the SAA, it is only deterred by fear that such an attack would lead to all out war with the Russians. It is becoming increasingly more difficult to argue that the Anglo-zionists have anything to fear from the Russians in Syria.
”– The Russians did not agree that they would guarantee to liberate the entire country from rebels for the Syrian government.
– The Russians did not agree that they would protect Syria from US or Israeli forces.
– The Russians did not agree that they would fight NATO to save Syria.
– Russia wants a political settlement after having changed the reality on the ground with their military intervention.
Russians will only strike NATO if there forces are directly attacked by NATO, and they will attack proportionality. If this causes NATO to escalate, then the Russians will not hesitate to escalate too.”
By then it might be too late!
Okay so why don’t the Russians retreat behind their own borders and wait for NATO to launch its long-awaited offensive. What happens if NATO takes a notion to invade Belarus? Why then all the fuss over the bombing and breaking up of Yugoslavia which is now a base for NATO. All the time NATO inches its way to the Russian frontier in an unmistakable military build-up. It’s not difficult to read the runes. Correctly, Russia decided to combat the Takfiris in Syria quite simply because it does not want these NATO proxies to show up in Chechnya and Dagestan. Russia cannot afford to be cavalier about aggressive foreign military intentions close to or on its frontiers.
It is rather disappointing for those raising the crucial issues to be labelled, jew-haters, and putin-haters, the issues raised are legitimate enough, widespread, and deserve serious consideration rather than smears and insults.
That was an excellent analysis, which totally ignores the elephant in the room. Putin has already explained very clearly his strategy, in a public statement:
“If you know that war is inevitable, you strike first, right?”
We all know that the AZ Empire will not stop attacking it’s neighbors until the Empire is massively defeated and destroyed. Waiting for the empire to collapse, go bankrupt, suffer an eruption of Yellowstone or Long Valley, etc is not likely to prevent the inevitable nuclear conflict. Putin’s “red line” will be crossed when the AZ’s desperate aggression escalates to the level of a major, unmistakable atrocity, which even the Mighty Wurlitzer cannot cover up.
When the anger in Russia and support for retaliation reach a critical level, Putin will strike. Putin’s attack will be massive. It will come unexpectedly, without warning. The USA and …? will cease to exist in the space of a single hour. Russia is prepared (shelters for citizens, massive periodic CD drills) for this war and will survive, the citizens of the Empire are not prepared (Duck & Cover!) and will not survive.
I cannot imagine anything more foolish than thinking that Putin does not have a plan.
Couldn’t agree more.
You might be making the same kind of error that Hillary Clinton did in 2016, when she so famously disparaged and dismissed so many Americans by naming them “Deplorables”.
I suspect that only a handful of the those, who post comments on your website, are truly “Putin-haters”. Furthermore I believe that most of them possess a level of sophistication, regarding world affairs, that surpasses most of the professors of History and Political Science currently teaching in American colleges and universities.
The restraint and patience being demonstrated by Putin is very alarming to those who have a certain understanding of the 20th century. A while ago, you recognized the growing numbers who feel -like Paul Craig Roberts- that this recurring pattern of “turning the other cheek” by Russia will ultimately lead to surrender or trigger a very costly conflict. The IL-20 incident is another terrible turn for the worse.
It seems that, as long as the antagonist -American, Turk, Israeli, French or British- hurts Russians in a way that they have not been hurt before, Putin will accept the apology; and will might even accept part of the blame for the incident. What makes this incident more damaging is the declaration by Shoigu that the Israelis were clearly responsible.
The scenario, which you have presented here, is plausible to some extent; but even so, you express skepticism. More than 40 years ago, I read a memoir of one of the leaders of the Israeli Air Force, which described training methods, tactics, and intelligence used to win the air war fought between 1967 and 1973. The “cleverness” exhibited by the 4 Israeli F-16s is consistent with the exploits recalled in that book.
All of Russia’s “partners” have taken liberties at Russia’s expense. Over the past decade, many have been assassinated. Others have been imprisoned. Consulates have been seized and searched.There have been tragic “accidents” in the air. Russian servicemen have been killed by terrorists who just happened to have uncannily accurate and timely intelligence. Assets have been seized. It goes on. It goes on without any adverse consequences to the injuring party. This must stop.
“Nemo me impune laecessit.” (No one harms me with impunity.)
“What makes this incident more damaging is the declaration by Shoigu that the Israelis were clearly responsible.”
IMO, it doesn’t matter if the Israeli maneuver was a “mistake.”
“Mistakes” have become the currency of dodging responsibility in so many ways, in so many arenas, in recent decades and years that the concept of a genuine “mistake” has been degraded to the level of virtual irrelevance. If you break a teapot by mistake, you still pay for it.
In a disciplined armed force, even someone who makes a genuine “mistake” is culpable and liable to military discipline. There is also such a thing as negligence and also homicidal negligence.
Hence, IMO the emphasis has be on what actually happened, not on the “intentions” of the responsible party, and on retribution for what actually happened. “Intentions” are subject to endless spin and false “apologies.” We know that lying is part of the Israeli tactical and strategic arsenal.
As Bob commented, the Israelis shouldn’t have been there dropping bombs on Syria in the first place. Who gave them permission to do this? This incident should at the very least provoke a revocation of any Russian “permission” for Israelis to be there in the first place. And, I think the Israeli airman who executed this maneuver also has to be severely punished, by loss of rank and possibly by significant time in an Israeli military prison. Someone must be visibly and severely *punished* for this action. Just words will not do.
A “major” payment to the widows and families of Russian airmen by Israel would also be worth considering.
@ Arthur and Katherine,
two very good posts.
In a nutshell, we are all on the same side, but differ in our assessments of the situation. We all have our own opinions challenged, which is a healthy process and one which we all need to go through, so long as the challenges are reasoned.
The key word is advocacy; Saker is a brilliant advocate for a certain strategic thinking on these affairs, meaning that his views are brilliantly explained and reasoned, so much so that we are all here. I have many very strongly held views, even visceral views on the whole situation, and have on many occasions modified or even changed those views by Saker’s writings, as I am sure most of us have.
Your two posts above were also very good advocacy, for contrary views, and so entirely legitimate and indeed appropriate. The only reason to have a comments section at all, is to capture all the different views, and hopefully, to have the main differences outlined with the best technical advocacy, so that we can all benefit from well reasoned challenge to our beliefs. Well reasoned challenge is healthy.
Katherine, I absolutely agree with you that Israeli negligence is not a defence. But it cannot be blamed on the pilot; he should not have been sent there in the first place. The execution of the raid is not at issue. The decision to perform that specific and reckless raid, whoever approved it, is the heart of the crime. If it is Netanyahoo himself, then it is him. The very least he can do, is make a substantial goodwill compensation payment to all the Russian families involved, to show contrition even if he denies culpability. What is the monetary value of an Israeli pilot’s life Bibi?
That said, what is going on behind the scenes, who knows.
Kat, I would like to point out on thing. There will not be any “reparation” payments from Israel, as Israel will never admit to any wrong doing. Besides, “Israel can never be accused of any wrongdoing”. Russia will pay the military pensions to the families as they died while on war duty.
You are probably right about Israel never admitting any wrongdoing.
That in itself is wrong.
Russia would pay penions anyhow.
A “punishment” for these wrongful deaths has to be more, IMO, and significant.
And, yes, if Israel is in the wrong, then Israel must take a hit.
Israelis are so adept at playing “reparations” cards. So, they know just what reparations mean.
It is not just the money.
When it comes to the “wrongful death” argument, Jewish Ameircan lawyers know exactly wht this means, and are very good at coming up with figures as to what a life is “worth” in $$$ terms.
There is also the punishment aspect of such payments in the USA justice system.
Let’s not play dumb here, or let Israel play dumb.
This reminds me of one recent article from PCR, his worst I can remember, where he basically said that because the democrats are so much after Trump, it’s a good thing that Trump seeks “protection” from the Israeli 5th column in US, as only they can protect him.
Sometimes silence is best.
I think that is not “turning the other cheek”: it is the coldly calculated Russia foreign policy with its partners.
Most of people here think that new Russia is an alternative to the Global Power but I suspect that Russia is not an alternative because it simply is a full partner of this Global Power of which it shares the rules. A partner, at these days, arguing with the other for its slice of cake not for freedom or human kind wealth.
I’m with Saker and Putin (corrected spelling,MOD) on this one. There is a bunch of nutcases on both sides of the Atlantic berking madly for war, and that’s not something that will profit regular people. Some sanity and calm is absolutely needed. Besides, it is never too late to start a war, right? And it’s very very easy to start, but damn hard to finish it.
By the way, “Fustercluck” is the polite way Saker was looking for to explain what’s going on ;)
Some unanswered questions:
why did the Israelis CHOOSE to give only a minute’s warning? This is very pro-forma and indicates that they have something to hide. I presume the normal warning times given before would be in the tens of minutes ranges. Why would the Israelis choose to take this risk in this instance?
why did the Russians permit the firing of s-200, or any other munition, in the general direction of the il-20? The Il-20 was doing a known circuit and had already slowed down for its approach to landing. It would not have been too difficult to give the IL-20 a wide berth.
If the Russians are keen on not bringing down any Israeli jets why do they allow the Syrians to shoot at them from their integrated system? It makes no sense that it is OK to bring down an Israeli jet by a S-200 but not by a S-300 or S-400 or whatever if the system is integrated.
“I presume the normal warning times given before would be in the tens of minutes ranges.”
If I do not recall badly, it was the Russian pilot interviewed the other day in a Russian media who said that the reglamentary needed time would be in the order of 30 to 45 minutes…..a great difference no doubt so as to exculpate the Israelis from their bad faith…..No wonder Shoigu, independently of the minimal details still to know, blamed the IDF at first minute after the tragedy….Putin had not but to support his ministr oborony and also friend….
The trust amongst these both armies, if anytime there was any, has just been obliterated along with the IL20…what benefits Russia in a possible coming offensive….( no way to save face now, at least in front of the Russian Army for the high echelons the IDF would have sent to Moscow….)
Better having things clear from now on….
from my point of view, Saker, you put the whole debate outside the real issue. Does Israel have the right to bomb Syria with impunity? Is Israel responsible for this policy of preventive strikes (with all it entails)? It is at this level that you have to go back up on the line of responsibility… and it is TOTAL.
and I would even like to add that it is already a BIG psychological victory in itself on the part of Israel, the fact that everyone finds this normal, the fact that this central issue is no longer even mentioned. It’s admirable, the whole debate is diverted to consequences, and there is like a psychological “no fly zone”, where it becomes impossible to make this simple and obvious question fly in people’s minds…… wow……
In particular also Russia finds the bombing normal at the point to have an aggreement with the bombers. But probably this is a very forbidden topic.
Tozak! Your concept that we, at least in the U.S., have a “psychological no – fly zone” protecting Israel made my day. It’s a very powerful meme. Thanks!
Does Israel have the right to bomb Syria with impunity?
No, but the problem has been that within the limits of Russian air support, Israel has been able to overfly Lebanon and bomb Syria with minimal risk. Now that is all changed. If Israel gets close to Russian bases, Russia has good reason to target their planes, and as Saker suggested, 100 km is a good estimate for what “too close” means. The rules of engagement have changed.
No….cannot see that
….the hotlines system will just be upgraded or something ….Syria -not Rusdia-needs the Iranians to come in with missile defences and use them to protect their legal presence in Syria….it is the only way.
Still no public comment from Iran as far as I can tell……interesting one hopes….are they going to precisely now follow the Putin line…….? I am not too sure on that.
Well, there would be an unsuspected gain for the Russians here, in case a NATO general offensive would be in the making.
Just yesterday I was reading about the bad shape the US Air Force is right now. On the contrary, the Israeli Air Force has always been rated amongst the best in the world ( not so their land forces…). Thus one wold think that in a general US ( NATO ) offensive against Syria, the IDF Air Force would have a main role, like it had at least in the beggining of the Yemen genocidal war….Thus, one would say that thye now really have screwed it out, since a retaliatory no fly zone highly limits their operational capacity in Syria….
That Hezbollah and Iran could benefit secondarily by it is not but a well deserved unsuspected reward ( never most wellcomed than in Ashura time ( “blessed are the justs” )…) for the loyal camaraderie shown in the Syrian war….
Thus Israel gets doubly, and really deservedly, punished….“To each pig it arrives its San Martin”….
“That Hezbollah and Iran could benefit secondarily by it is not but a well deserved unsuspected reward ( never most wellcomed than in Ashura time ( “blessed are the justs” )…) for the loyal camaraderie shown in the Syrian war….”
And by the way, i don’t know if it was indeed a Bavar 373 that was targeted by the Israelis at the airport but, immediatly after (the next day) -during the time of sideration following the destruction of the IL 20- the Iranians sent a Boing 747… maybe filled with Persian carpet.
Tozak, yours and the series of comments the followed gave me a calm sense that our side in winning, that we are in the right track. The isrealis may think that, if not all of us are mentioning the ‘central issue’, they had their psychological victory; but I would suggest that a psychological victory now, like winning a battle, is not going to save them from their final fall when the war ends.
“…the fundamental Israeli responsibility is already established. But what is still missing are the (important) details…”
Israeli snipers kill Palestinian quadraplegics, kids, medics, journalists and unarmed protesters and deliberately shoot Palestinian footballers in the legs, and the same refrain is offered on their behalf.
They cold bloodely murder Palestinian civillians in plain sight, day after day, and you have folks still demanding details.
How much more details do people need?
Thats like having a crazed maniac running around chopping people with a meat cleaver, only to have persons demand that there not be a rush to judgement.
They bomb a UN school full of civillians and US senators huddle together in a hastily arranged news comference to tell the world that “Israel has the right to defend itself”.
To my knowledge, the bodies of the Russian servicemen were not yet recovered, before you had Putin going to great lengths to say how much it was an accident and Israel is not to blame.
It did not look good, and it did not sound right.
No one was saying that Russia should nuke Israel, but it would have been best for Putin when asked the question to simply say:
“look, the Def. Minister, has already addressed this issue, and as of now, I have nothing further to add”
At least allow the harsh words of the Defense Ministry to sink in.
By modifying what Shoigu said, it gave the impression that he was not only contradicting his Defense Ministry, but also jumping through hoops to absolve Israel.
They already use the US and its politicians to wipe their ass, we dont want to see Russia submit to the same treatment.
As for reference to perceived Israeli “infallibility”, I dont think any objective observer really credit them with that.
Mossad and its operatives are deliberately puffed up by Hollywood.
Many US TV shows now routinely have Mossad characters bristling with classified data and secret intelligence and boasting state of the art gadgets.
But we know the truth, so they cant distract or influence us.
My recollection of the botched assisination attempt on Khaled Meshal, who was living in Jordan at the time, was that when the plot was exposed, the would be assassins were found to be carrying forged Canadian passports.
And guess what Canada did?
You guessed it, nothing!
And no, we were not expecting Canada to bomb Israel for putting its Canadian citizens in harm’s way by forging Canadian Passports, but we would have like to at least seen diplomatic relations downgraded.
Israeli operatives were caught in Afghanistan with bags full of US $dollars while pretending to be CIA agents in recruiting persons to perpetrate terrorist acts in Iran.
The Americans caught them red-handed and guess what they did?
As a matter of fact the whole incident was quietly hushed up.
Israeli undercover agents were caught in Australia trying to steal the identity of a disabled Australian.
The Australian government found out and guess what they did?
You guessed it again, nothing!
And this is what riles up a lot of folks.
Israel is never held to account, no matter how heinous the nature of crimes committed.
We already have loads of countries and people lining up to offer excuses for Israel and justify its crimes.
What we need now are a few countries and folks who are willing speak the truth and describe Israel as the ugly hideous monster that it is, instead of trying to convince us that it is cute and cuddly.
We need some balance.
Yes, I totally agree.
“You can recognise a tree by its fruits.”
We have a chain of facts, all of which testify of a systematic criminal state pathology.
But faced with the “confuses” conditions of the latest crime, the first reaction is to say, “yes, after all, it may just be an accident !” F…. ! F…. !!
What is clear is that there is an evil intelligence at work….. if it were not so dark and evil, one would almost want to bow to its subtle way of confusing things, using lies and concealment at a level of art… art of manipulation.
is it above the intelligence of the average goy to understand that the conditions that create confusion are an integral part of the attack mode?
This is a repeat of the bombing of the USS Liberty in 1967 by Israel. It too was a surveillance ship as was the IL-20 a surveillance plane.
thanks for your informative post and try to smoothen some hysteria.
I am in the opinion that Putin never does anything that could harm his outlaid plans to free Syria from terrorists (aka Western proxies).
As could have been seen in the last years – even in his general policy – his pros and cons are usually extremely balanced and never made in a haste.
So as he got Russia back on its feet so will he proceed with anything he has put on his political agenda. Syria is not different.
Whenever he sees a possibility to “screw” other “parties” in any political field he will do it. His diplomatically stills are outstanding and as I figured it out usually asymmetric.
His ways of thinking are that of a judoka (as already written by others). It is also the same way China built his political agenda. Its pure Asian thinking. Same as playing chess. Strategies – I think he must be an excellent chess player.
The Roman way or Western way of thinking is just so much different that most of the opinions cannot get to the point that long lasting plans need a careful and balanced way to be carried out.
Also there is another extremely important point: to be able to sell armaments etc. Russia will be in need to show to the world that it masters it too. The stakes are extremely high. And – as usually – bound to the monetary field of a state.
“The Roman way or Western way of thinking is just so much different that most of the opinions cannot get to the point that long lasting plans need a careful and balanced way to be carried out. ”
This is no doubt true.
Yet, as has often been observed and discussed at this blog, the current conflict, or confrontation, or competitoin, or war, or whatever you want to call it, is also an information and media war. So, commanding the information and media terrain has to be part of the strategy.
I do not understand that Russian policy. Israelis fired @ Syrian installations. they did not shoot Hezbollah and did not shoot the Iranian targets in Syria. the Russians do not protect either Hezbollah or Iran, but they should protect Syrians. yet they are in some military alliance when the Russians have their pair of military, let’s call, the base in Syria. The Israelis shoot at anyone who could sell something worthy of Hezbollah. I understand that there is no need to spread the conflict, but 200 times the Israelis shot the Syrian while the Syrians returned only once on Golan Plateau. Russians only once protected in April from the rocket attack from NATO ships and aircraft. how does it look now? the Israelis knew well that the targets they chose were illegitimate and beyond any agreement with the Russians. because they did not even report to Russians in time, because they might have been bothered by the action. yet they started to do the action. the French have bothered, Britons on observing. as I see it: there is a question of defining the threshold of activating broad-scale conflicts. how we will know which events are actually the beginning of the ultimate widespread conflict and which events are of limited character. any visual accumulations of forces that would only mean by war books that start of war the inevitable, is meaningless. because the Russians would hit the first. the beginning of a widespread conflict should be invisible through military preparations. did NATO in Israeli action ultimately test the threshold for widespread conflicts? because the Americans are unmerciful with their armada, the Israelis are a special story. The NATO ships in the Mediterranean will not give up their “Mediterranean courtyard” in favor of Russia. in the whole story I see the Syrian targets, the Israelis, the French and the British. and the Russians who did not protect the allies. let someone deny me so learning something. thank you.
Maybe Russia should apologize to Izrael for putting 4 F-16 in dangerous situation weil shouting IL-20 down.
The USA seems to be pressing its foot ever heavier on Russia’s neck in syria—which surely means, on Russia’s neck everywhere.
Despite not wanting to join a “chorus” of any kind, esp. not of Putin defeatists, I can’t help thinking that Paul Craig Roberts sounds kinda right when it comes to the dynamic of ever-escalating provocations and its negative trajectory for Putin. I hope Roberts is wrong.
Paul Craig Roberts way of thinking is pure Western.
Provocations are meant to be carried out in order to make the other party nervous and thus leaving its original agenda and/or its energy will dissipate in different directions. What will happen ?
Putin will deal with Israel when his agenda allows. This means that Israel should think much more careful what it does.
If Israels agenda is following another script – its easy to follow. Putin will not forget the dead soldiers and will punish Israel for it. I am sure.
All at the proper time. Not before. After the Syrians have been freed by all those proxies. And Russia has shown the world how to do it.
If Western allies and/or proxies think that provocations will distract the Russians they are dead wrong.
The Chinese built their new empire since the early seventies of the last century. And their open voices are only heart since a handful of years. This means: only AFTER they were sure to have accumulated enough power (in every sense).
Western countries have the agenda of the Romans: colonialism and imperialism. At any cost. Never abandoned it. They put it into a “nice wrapping” and “lot of lies” only.
I take your points.
certainly it does not make sense to “retaliate” in a predictable and symmetrical way, i.e., to let oneself be goaded into something. I understand this completely.
But, what about the issue of (currently nonexistent) red lines? The sense that there is a certain vacuum there inviting Israelis, French, the UK, Turks, and the USA to fill it with aggressive grabbing actions.
What PCR says on red lines sounds logical to me.
It looks as though the Western forces are probing, as a dentist probes, to see how far to go before it “hurts”—but in this case, the prober, not the probee.
Perhaps Putin in communicating the real red lines to Israel in the meetings taking place.
I hope so.
Kat, just on the sort of joking side “It depends on who crosses the red lines”. They are movable you know?
Also, how far does one have to cross them before there is a reaction?
On the serious side though, one has to be prepared to go all the way when one announces red lines, somehow I do not believe Russia is. Nor is the US, but the US has the weapon of sanctions, which Russia does not. I was just reading that US has just applied/proposed sanctions against China for buying Russian planes and missiles. China of course protested. As long as US has the control of the $$$ aka financial world.
My name isn’t Kat.
I’m sorry but I have to disagree about the Romans.
What they do is very different.
The first thing Romans did with conquered people was make then equal citizens.
After that, the region prosper like NEVER before investing in trade routes and etc.
That’s why it lasted so long.
mod-to note: this is heading off topic – to continue please take to the Moveable Feast Cafe
You have stated: “First, let me start by a very simple and primitive question:
Why in the world has nobody considered that the Israelis might have truly screwed-up?”
Simply because the Prima Fascie evidence is that the Israelis did not ‘screw-up. Furthermore, when one considers Robert John Aumann’s ‘Game Strategy Theorems’ again the Israelis did not ‘screw-up’.
Again: “We know that the Israelis did not give enough warning time to the Russians, which is in direct violation of an agreement between Israel and Russia. Do we know that they did it deliberately? No, we don’t. We really don’t.”
Prima Fascie evidence disagrees with this logic. It was in direct violation, and thus the only outcome is that this and the rest of the events had to be deliberate.
Again: “So why is everybody assuming that the Israelis carefully planned the whole thing?”
In considering the logical series of events, there is no evidence of a ‘stuff-up’, and as Sir Arthur Conan Doyle has stated, that leaves us with only a ‘carefully planned’ situation.
Again: “let’s assume that this is simply the typical case of Israeli arrogance (not a myth!) and that they decided to inform the Russians as late as possible. Does that at all entail that the manoeuvre of the Israeli F-16s pilots to seek cover from the S-200 missile was something they had planned in advance?”
The answer is ‘YES, YES, YES! Why? For a start, what other cover or drill could the Israeli pilots taken to avoid the incoming missiles? There is none stated; ergo there was no other cover, and the Israeli pilots, all 4 of them thus acted out ‘a drill’, something planned, and the outcome anticipated.
Again: “Those who insist that this was a deliberate Israeli act need to come up with a halfway credible explanation not only for how this was done, but also why this was done.”
Oops! Sorry but some of the better contributors already have. What was that meeting the week prior?
Again: “Does anybody believe that all these officers went to Moscow just to thumb their noses at the Russians?”
You never were a criminal were you Saker? Nor were you a ‘Bent Policeman’! What would a ‘Bent Policeman’ do after bumping off a victim? And yes, their explanations would have been well prepared. I’m sorry, but I’ve seen this type of behaviour all too many times in the police farce, and it normally works well.
Again: ” I am not saying that the Israelis did not deliberately shoot down the Il-20 and I am not saying that the Israelis are not responsible for the resulting loss of life and equipment.”
Which simply means that you are saying? In actual fact it is irrelevant what the Israeli’s actions were; what is relevant is the outcome of those actions.
Again: “What I am saying is that Putin, does have to look at all the possible options before deciding what to do next.”
I totally concur with you on this point. General Shoigu will also concur.
Again: “If the Russians conclude that the Israelis did it deliberately, I will support a strike on Israeli air bases.”
Firstly, I think you may find that the Russians have already reached that conclusion Secondly, your support and ours is totally irrelevant, and thirdly in reality it is far to late for the Russians to retaliate in that manner. For the Russians to strike at Israeli airbases, those reactions should be spontaneous, not deliberated upon.
Again: “I also think that it is high time to keep a pair MiG-31BMs on 24/7 combat air patrol high over Syria.”
A far more intelligent conclusion.
Again: “So this might be the reason why Putin spoke of “tragic circumstances”
Not really, Putin is being his normal self and speaking in a very circumspect manner. However, if you are overly concerned perhaps you may enquire of him yourself. Me? I just sit back and let Putin and Shoigu do what they think best. That normally works!
Again: “the last time the Russians made a deal with the Israelis, it worked remarkably well, let’s not forget that.”
That’s correct; until the 17th of September. The main question thus becomes; ‘Can Russia trust Israel again?’ The answer is as everybody tells us; ‘No’.
In conclusion: “The truth is that no matter what Putin does, we can expect the chorus of Putin-haters to bellow at the top of their lungs “
Of course! That is what they have been paid to do.
Through the past years we have all watched and learnt. Some worry and tell us that Putin has erred, but overall, I don’t think he has. What we must all remember is that Putin warned against the attacks on Libya but the west didn’t listen, and then he interceded on the side of Syria, and both Putin and Russia must be aware that the costs would be not just in silver but in blood. The one major lesson I have seen is that Putin or Russia, and Assad in Syria and Iran, have always been concerned about humanity and the innocents caught up in this terrible war.
I can remember years ago Iran stating that they would never use nuclear weapons against Israel as there were too many innocent people residing in Israel including Arabs and Palestinians. The West though calls these people ‘collateral damage’. I find the West’s mindset offensive.
Thanks, Andrew for your brilliant reasoning.
Thank you for your thoughtful comment.
This is something that I was taught whilst in the Police Farce (it’s the correct word) and it works well in most situations.
However, there is something amiss within this scenario; the ‘White Helmets’!
Remember that they kidnapped about 40 children to use as victims in a CW hoax. However I believe that the Russian actions had completely disrupted that planned incident. So what were the US/UK/NATO/IS able to come up with to replace the ‘White Helmets’ CW hoax?
Well the II-20 would have been as good as any, but that would then mean it just wasn’t the Israelis and a single French frigate involved but the whole shebang.
In other words the possibility is that this incident was far greater than what we have actually seen, and it is very possible that the Russians were also fully aware that ‘something’ was going to happen.
The Isaelis may be seeking a provocation and the “Putin is a softy” thing could be hasbarra.
.” Lt. General Alexander Ionov, former Deputy Chief of Main Staff of Russian Air Force from 1991 through 2001, stated to popular Russian media Zvezda that it is guaranteed that Syrian Air Defense forces were not provided with compatible IFF equipment and codes.”…..betchya the IDF knew this….so they could use the plane as cover to attract any missiles from Syria Betchya.
The official story of the downing of the Russian IL-20 is full of internal inconsistencies and doesn’t have the ring of truth. Much more went on that particular evening of September 17th. Too many NATO jets, ships, submarines from several nations were in the vicinity of the ‘crime scene’. More details will slowly come out over the next days, adding only more question marks and and answering none of them.
That said, I am sure Putin did exactly the right thing, maybe even sacrificing the IL-20 and its crew in order to stop an already war-gamed multi-step escalation by the usual trouble makers. Just saying.
Well done Putin! Well done Russian MoD!
A fair and balanced column Saker, thanks for taking the time to post this. Like others here, over at MOA and across other sites, I am interested in the role played by the French warship in the incident…and indeed of other NATO assets in the area such as Cyprus.
There seems to be a temporary no-fly zone of sorts in play right now and I will be curious to see the amount of energy and will Russia invests in enforcing this. Rumours suggest that additional defensive assets are already in transit and I’d like to believe this to be true.
My sense is that the Israelis are usually pretty coy and evasive as to the amount of military casualties they sustain in operations. Saker, one well-respected poster at SyPer implied that one of the four F-16’s failed to return to base. I’ve not seen much else in support of this but your time permitting, have you heard anything to suggest that one of Israeli jets was shot down or at the very least deterred from carrying out the strike(s)?
Final thought: I truly feel for the servicemen that were killed in this incident and for their families. The thought of children not being able to welcome their fathers home is distressing.
it was probably the French ship Auvergne that brought down the il20 the Russians talked early about missles from that ship
“Jew-haters and Putin-haters – unite” Saker I consider myself (and probably many on this forum) as neither Jewish nor Putin hater. I wrote somme comments out of honest concern for the security of the Russian personal stationed in Syria. It feels like already too many Russian lives lost at the hands of Russian “partners”, but lets hope for the best out of this last tragedy.
Dear President Putin….a reminder..
“Syrian government forces regularly carry out mop-up operations in provinces liberated from terrorist and militant groups and have on multiple occasions discovered caches and depots of ammunition and weapons made in Western countries and Israel.”
The seeker is also a bad chess player has never been world champion of course. Why then keep thinking of “Chess game”? America and Israel already know Putin, they already know the Russians’ world championship. So what does Israel and America do because they are bad chess players are no world champions in modern times, and Russian chess players were often Jews who now moved to Israel. Chess tactics are dangerous if you can not handle it at one hundred and fifty percent. So then it’s better to “shut up” then the smarter chess player has won. Excuse my fairy tales but that’s all I understand and can explain what Israel and America are doing. They defend their supremacy over the Middle East and Russia with the muscles they have.
this is a war crime by any definition,there is no need to shoot anyone here,15 russian servicemen were murdered while competing terrorist as so recognised by the state of russia.,Proceed to a criminal investigation and charge the quilty party ,let them prove they are innocent of the crime.Simple why all these politics.
An interesting article. While it’s entirely plausible Israel erred miscalculated and followed a tragic aligning of events, I personally find this narrative highly unlikely. In order to reach a conclusion one must examine each of facts leading to the downing of Russian asset. Israel sends four f16 to bomb Latakia. Russian Il50 happens to be in zone readying for landing. French frigate in area almost exactly where missiles IDF launch missiles. French frigate fires missiles almost simultaneously. Russiain warships in vacinity. Now several points stand out. The French frigate and IDF coordinated their attacks. Both were aware the Russian surveillance plane was in the area. The french frigates line of fire would have in no way placed IL50 in danger. The French were surrounded by Russian navy and to excuse the proverbial would have been sitting ducks. However the IDF would have known fully that their actions would have placed IL50 in the line of fire. The objective of IDF? In the confusion and with very little time to react that the Russiain navy , military would have targeted French frigate . Drawing nato into conflict. Why wasn’t US Navy with French frigate? I believe IDF US set the chain of events to fool Russia into sinking a French naval asset. All this right after Putin Erdogan put paid to Idlib false flag fiasco. I am sure the French and Russians realise this and I’m great full that cooler heads prevailed.
Another possibility. What if Russian Il50 was shot down by Iranian version of S300? A Russian plane wouldn’t be immune as would have no transponder. Something the Russians , Syrians would never admit.
“In order to reach a conclusion one must examine each of facts leading to the downing of Russian asset. Israel sends four f16 to bomb Latakia. Russian Il50 happens to be in zone readying for landing. French frigate in area almost exactly where missiles IDF launch missiles. French frigate fires missiles almost simultaneously. Russiain warships in vacinity. Now several points stand out. ”
this is reminding me of something . . .. So many coincidences, so many assets in place, so much complex planning . . . attention misdirected to “wrong” target . . .
Having read all the comments, and slept on this, I’m convinced we are very near the moment when Putin has to decide whether he responds or not. Therein lies all our futures.
Is it at all plausible that Israel just wanted to drive a wedge between Russia and Syria, with the result that Russia gets the hell out of dodge, leaving Syria to defend itself against the Empire?
Anything….anything…..anything….to continue their Iran agenda with ISA…..
Just the IDF officials who have just returned from Moscow are spreading this line of information in their press conference, what should direct us to think that this could well be the main goal of this “operation” and not the warehouse in Latakia…
Kremlin refutes claims Putin was angry with Assad over plane crash
Kremlin spokesman recalled that the claims originated in the Israeli media
A source says that Israel warned Russia of its attack in Syria more than a minute in advance…( well, even in the case that it was with two minutes in advance…that is still very few, man!…)
Regarding which is the ‘right’ course for Russia to follow, I moot the following, that with possible rare exceptions such as Sun Tzu, wisdom is an elusive thing.
He is an illustrative example; and aptly, a chaotic and dramatic one.
Two brothers are forced by circumstances to row across a strait in a storm, with a treasure chest each, representing considerable wealth, but also the entirety of their wealth. The boat capsizes, they have to swim to shore, their card seems to be up. One brother decides to forego his treasure, he just wants to live. The other will swim with one arm, carrying his treasure chest in the other. He will survive with his wealth intact, or not at all.
Who is right? What does wisdom say?
Does not the outcome determine who was wise? But that is the conundrum, wisdom has to guide us before knowing the result, and the wisest move can still turn out wrong.
Let’s conclude by looking at two possible outcomes.
1) The second brother died trying to preserve his wealth. The other survived. The obvious moral, is that greed is punished by fate. Value the simple things, nothing is more precious that life itself. Is this not compelling wisdom, especially given how things turned out, which seems to be the proof?
2) both brothers survive. The now penniless one is despised by the other, for his cowardly refusal to fight for everything he has ever worked for. The rich brother becomes ever richer. The poor one lives forever in poverty and squalor, extending the misery to the family he then has. In the end, his own children despise him, for not having had the courage to seize the moment the way that his brother did.
So when we choose a path, and it goes wrong, it is easy to conclude that another course was the better decision, but we don’t know that. The other outcome may have been worse. We just throw the dice, and wait.
Back to Sun Tzu, therein his brilliance. His writings might not ensure an outcome, but it tilts the odds, and that is as close to real wisdom as we can get. Outcomes are rarely certain.
I finish with the notion that many or all of us have views and convictions based on our personal experiences, which rest on the outcomes we observed, comprising the proof of our correctness. We need always to remember, that very different outcomes were also possible.
If it is true that BBC didn’t broadcast this ‘huge news’, then they probably waited for an expected other news, that Russia sunk French vessel or downed Israeli jet, to start beating war drums. NATO in the Mediterranean was ready and waiting.
“The truth is that no matter what Putin does, we can expect the chorus of Putin-haters to bellow at the top of their lungs “Putin betrayed X” (replace “X” with whatever you want). …. stupid and tedious”
Hardly, Mr Saker.
The “truth” is … Russia’s response to this event has been remarkably, even miraculously, muted. Some terrs kill some folk in Paris – it’s all we hear about for a week. A bomb goes off in Berlin, Moscow, St Petersberg – some folk are chased with a car in Nice, stabbed in London, remember Manchester? And for 7-10 days it’s ALL the news everywhere. Even FMs are out mouthing support and outrage. Barely anything else gets a mention for the duration. This affair? It’s a week tomorrow night and already it’s as though it never happened. Listen to RT – does it even get a mention any more? Crosstalk? Oh Lavelle loves Israeli/Western atrocity – this one? Nope. Not a peep – Kavanaugh FCS.
You know why the Americans think they’re special? ‘Cos people like Lavelle keep telling them they are. All he talks about these days – no idea why he finds sheer stupidity and deliberate distraction so fascinating. …Why doesn’t he get Chris Hedges?
And what are you talking about? Stupid people. Angry people. Outraged people. People who want revenge. People who want the atrocity to stop. Yes! We want to see Israel bombed and America bombed and Britain and France too. Toss in Saudi Arabia while we’re at it. If these countries KNEW what it’s like to have your cities bombed relentlessly they might – just might – do less of it themselves.
Back to the IL-20 and 15 Dead Russian Servicemen:
Russia has put their version of “D notice” on this matter. That is serious. That means there’s a lot of something going on NO-ONE’s talking about. The silence, the forgiveness, the lack of outrage – is unnatural.
So why don’t you put that wonderful, sharp, analytical mind that you are blessed with into that? What? Why? How? Repercussions? Instead of telling us how stupid we are because we’re human.
Something is going on. And it is serious.
It is always more important what politicians and leaders don’t say, than what they do.
I don’t expect you to publish this.
I just hope you’ll read it.
Nothing is being mentioned on RT headlines today…hows about checking out Russians peoples opinions guys….Syrians….Iranians……rather than wasting that reporter on american high streets who usually does some daft stupid quick vox populi poll on usa politics….what is Russian press and media saying….Russian politicians…come on RT get on the case….do they even read alt free media such as saker etc??? Lot of info and well informed opinion here by well informed readers….I do not include myself in that…..I am just trying to connect stuff together….
ground VVS and IAF to prevent any further cluster****’s
Syria has lost 111….
it is simple! we all know who the Anglo/Zionist are, and it is clear that Putin does not accept them as we know they are and treats them as friends and ‘partners….especially Israel and the Khazars, the worst of them all, the drive of the dark global reality.
that is an utterly silly and dangerous way to be. I am not asking for nuclear war. I am trying to prevent it because what the bully recognizes is only the oppositions totally plan sight of him in all he is and responses based on that understanding of the bully.
we all saw what Putin was trying to accomplish and we all knew that the Israels would not respect it. we all knew the west would support whatever the Zionist didm would plan with then to cause war, and carry out the plans in conjunction with the Israel as supine France did. we all knew how devious and untrustworthy they all are, that they want the world and mean to have it at any cost
on that basis we all know war is coming regardless, no matter what Putins does..unless Russia surrenders.
so in the meantime I expected that Putin would accept this fact and allow it to underpin his plans and movement once he took up active involved opposition to the empire: that he would into Syria with full force required to get the job don quickly regardless, that he would not be countenancing Israel as no partner..that was foolish and publicly humiliating. that he would establish in reality, if not publicly a no flay zone over Syria where necessary, cutting out Israeli bombing of Syria period
we all knew that Turkey would have behaved as it did shooting down the Russians. why after the fact? there needs to be no action after the fact if Putin was operating on the truth of those he is opposing. he would have been all prepared relative to his enemies and how they would and could respond totally..and in that way end all their probing, attacking his constant prevarications and limitations on himself in what he had chosen to do. the took that for weakness and would exploit it, leading to the very conclusion that Putin is supposed fighting against wider war
Putin was not sophisticated working with the west against Iran, Putin had to work with the Iranian to develop the military defence that would eliminate all possibility of an attack on that nation, unless the west was prepared to go to the max. and then they would be responsible for that escalation.
all these things Putin did that made no sense at all to anyone paying attention. and there is so much more from Putin that suggested weakness and foolishness that was bound to be challenged. here now he must set up to deny Israel the Syrian sky years later, when that should have been among the first thing to have done..which would have save 15 precious Russian lives. Putin would have done that had he accepted the Israelis for who they really are. and Russian partners they are not and never will be.
and the Russian fifth column..why hasn’t Putin strangled that yet? that fifth more than anything is a viral danger to Russian independence. it must be defeated forthwith. it cannot be left there period. if Putin is the Russian nationalist he is claimed to be then the elimination of the Russian fifth must be his top priority. but they are there fat and strong making economic policy against the best interest of the Russian people and ‘forcing’ Putin to carry out such policies.
( and I assume it is forcing Putin but it may not be…after all Putin is a capitalist and we know what that means )
if you are not prepared to look your enemy in the eye and understand them and behave towards them accordingly then get out of the way. you are not looking for nuclear war which they will make you fight soon enough.
the west is the Russian enemy even if they are all capitalists…whether Putin accepts that or not. if Putin really wants a deal with them it wont be on his terms but theirs… and that may be the fly in Putins ointment. so he will have to fight them but he wont win failing to recognize them as they are. that is the problem and the real danger. Putins policy towards the Anglo/Zionists is calculated to achieve war..not prevent it.
that has been my point all along. and others have been saying longer than I have and better..like PCR. you have to be serious, prepared to stand up, to be real. Putin has not been so far. he must stop that, know what to to and do it.. that will prevent war..at least leave right in the decision of the Anglo/Zionist to escalate, start the war, not Putin/Russia
who wants nuclear war..only the Anglo/Zionists. you don’t start it but you are prepared. and whatever you have to do in defence, and the protections you must extend to your allies you do so completely, uncompromisingly and to the extend that is necessary to stop all aggression towards them. you do it readily, immediately, no prevarication and fearlessly. if your opposition is unstable and deal incapable that cannot be your problem and undue concern…to placate madmen and prevent them from blowing up the world.
ultimately you have no control over what they will do anyway. and they are nuts! the only choice you have is not to let then run over you, intimidate you and force you to react. you stop this by doing up front all what you must..period…leaving the insane and unstable with no illusions what will follow if they cross the essential lines. that invariably stops the insane in their tracts
that is the best I can say it and the last comment I make on the Saker. the situation is clear to me now. I think I understand.
its been a slice
to Ben Sampson
your post shows some Western way of thinking.
Have you ever heard of collateral damage ? Or of diplomatic ways ? Or of restraint in order to achieve a much greater goal ?
The Western way of thinking I am sure Russia as well as China have incorporated into their viewpoints.
Viewpoints how to achieve what they want.
Btw: collateral damage is a short term for humans – in case you didn’t realize or simply forget.
Moreover: our air is greatly polluted, our seas too and in some countries its soil has been extremely polluted (for the next millions of years!!)
By whom ? For what ?
Do you think to achieve some serious goals are only by bombing ? Do you want that our earth gets more and more polluted by those tiny micro particles falling down when it rains (wherever that is after it travelled by the air)?
Don’t you think we should more and more think in broader terms instead of short sighted ones ?
You raise important questions, monnalisa, that have more weight than all the military questions we don’t know the answers to because we don’t have all the facts. The one fact we do have is what we were told by Shoigu, that the Russians were given only one minute of warning. We don’t know why that was the case, and I would suppose there could be legitimate speculation by those with military expertise as to the consequences of only getting one minute to respond – but I say again, we don’t know yet why the Israelis only gave one minute of warning. The inference is that was not enough time for safety measures to be taken, not standard procedure. The inference is had more time been allowed, the incident could have been avoided.
I think Saker is correct in focusing on that question, and so long as it isn’t adequately answered, we shall have to wait, and sympathize with those who grieve over the loss of their loved ones.
One other factor – it certainly was noticeable that the Israelis were in a great rush to confer, to explain, to apologize, whatever. I don’t think they would have made such attempts had they felt complacent after the incident – no, I think they were very much afraid that yes, a red line had been crossed and by golly there might be all hell to pay. So I think Saker’s other point that it could well have been a terrible catastrophe in the making in Israeli eyes, not just in the eyes of the rest of us, is well taken.
We are on the outside. We should make less noise; after all most of us wouldn’t have known the persons who lost their lives, or even the Syrians who were the unintended destroyers of people they respected for helping to save their country. How awful for them to have done that.
Putin is trying to shape a multipolar world. That’s going to have to include some unsavory people. It’s going to have to re-establish legalities most in their life on this planet haven’t had a chance to experience, the legalities of a peaceful world. It’s easy to break things; not so easy to do what he is trying to do.
I don’t know how to prevent war man. I am not asking anyone to be reckless. . but what is reckless relative to the Zionists?
the Zionist by every measurement I have seen, and my lifelong experience of global relations are aggressive and initiatory in carrying out their program in the world. they set the parameters of all that humans do but we know their program. it is exploitative and global. it is capitalist.
it is effects of that system by which the world has become poisoned. look man the list of ills and evils and depredation on all that exists by the Khazars is beyond description. somehow you all believe that we all must sit quiet and behave ourselves lest we precipitate the Israelis to go crazy and destroy the world
I don’t understand that at all. according even to your own description the world is already destroyed. and given that the Israelis are planners and executive have always been out front..what gives you all any kind of impression that if we behave ourselves they will leave us alone, will not start a war for example?
thats awfully incredible! look at what they just did!! they studied out every possible aspect of what the Russians/Syrians were doing routinely, repetitively, knew it precisely down to the nano-second to be have been able to pull off the move that led to 15 dead Russians. you see! thats is what I am saying. were they afraid of Russia, were they concerned about breaking a deal they had made with the Russians, sullying their name and word?
they cared about nothing like that..about principle, trust, good relations between nations. they care about none of that. they have no regard for anyone, any nation, no one period. why do you think they will respect the rest of the world at any time, for any reason now in the future…. when?
my point is that the Interest of any nation relative to the Khazars must be looked after, never compromised to the benefit of the khazars. and in as much as we know them, we must live and plan relative to them accordingly.
so this means that going into Syria Putin, if he really understood his ‘partners’, would have set up the situation totally without compromise to the Khazars, but to suit the Russians. after the fact 15 Russians are dead. I would not have been caught like that by the Khazars.
that’s my point. the rest of the world should be about taking back their currencies from Rothschild control, utterly, uncompromisingly breaking Khaza financial control of the planet. what the hell is there to fear….again as you have pointed out the world is almost ruined. we are all dying! what the hell is to fear. are we going to leave our generations to the tender mercies of those devils?
that is what will stop the Khazas..nations like Russia acting like they should..and others doing the same in all the ways they are connected to the Khazars…look after their own best interests period, don’t be intimidated anymore by the khazars. that will break the global Khazar power and give the world a chance.
now if that happens what do you think it would mean in the world for the Khazars, and what do you think their reaction will be?
I am not calling for bomb..I am calling for an end to this silly and constant appeasement relative to the Khazars. it is stupid and insane. all that is required is for example the Russians to have set up properly from the start in Syria. what would they have done had that been the case?
and if you do not do that you are inviting Khazar attack. you are opening yourself up to attack not preventing a fight when you appease like that. if you put in the armaments and stand ready to fight to protect y0ur interest no fight.
but when the chips are down and the Israelis have no more room but to segue into an ordinary little runt of a country that cannot pay, even to maintain its nuclear weapons, become subject to peoples whom they walked all over in contempt, subject to prosecution for their previous crimes against humanity? imagine if all the Israelis claimed happened to them turns out to be untrue. they collected a lot of reparations from nations they may have to repay..what will they do?
that is what they are fighting to prevent right now. they will then attack the world that is what they will do?
they are losing the fight already. so we must expect what is called reckless Israeli behavior. it is not reckless. it is survival. we can expect a whole lot more of that …up to world war 3.
my argument is that there is little chance that that war can be avoided for all those reasons. so all this appeasement, wrong at the best of times is many times more wrong at this time..as the human time in existence winds down due to the Khazars and their insane religion and parasitic purpose in the world
The West is totally subservient to their Khazar masters. PCR articulates our despair that the west was long lost, and we are all just vassal states to foreign powers. there seems to be a total inability for the West to confront this enemy, or even to see it, so the responsibility is delegated by us, the very concerned but impotent western few, to Putin, without asking him.
Those awake in the west are marginal at best, and view with despair the ignorance of their fellow citizens, and their totally corrupt governments. Russia, and Putin, have defacto become the last hope for humanity, and hence bear the perceived moral pressure to rescue the West from its own failure.
It isn’t Russia’s responsibility to rescue the west. Maybe they have plenty of self interest to do so, maybe not. The truth is that while we merry few see and respect Russia’s historic relevance, the majority couldn’t give a damn for Russia, and are even spiteful towards Russia, and not least to Assad and Iran.
Having established that we believe we know what is best for Russia and Putin to do, we ought remember that time is actually on their side, and ‘playing for time’ must never be underestimated.
Among the things that time might bring them:
– Iraq joining the Shia crescent (game changer!!!!)
– Turkey joining the Eastern alliance / SCO, and maybe even leaving NATO
– Dollar collapse
– further neutering of the Russian fifth column at home
– production stage and deployment of critical new Russian weapons systems
– The US expending itself in political, economic, and maybe even kinetic conflict with China
– the wild card: a great global awakening, contingent on the Q-Anon promises actually materialising.
Maybe Putin will make us all happy one day, but he will choose the day.
Good post Ben.
Putin got involved in Syria and has gotten pretty good bang for his buck but his strategy up until this point will not be successful in future imo. He’s losing manoeuvrability and is accepting red lines made by his adversaries and seemingly making none of his own.
The US are entrenched and are going nowhere. If Syria or Iran attack their bases then it will be an excuse to punish them and Russia will do nothing. Americans will constantly train and equip jihadis to be a thorn in Syria’s ass.
If Idlib is attacked even without CW then the west will attack SAA and Russia will do nothing.
The kurds possess a chunk of Syrian territory and this situation has yet to play out. Whether the kurds make a deal with SAA and kick out their US protectors then what will turkey do? Which way turkey swings could be a huge game changer for the Russian position but Erdoğan is even more distrustful than Netanyahu!
What can Russia do next? It’s constantly buying time by turning the other cheek. If Israel is forced now to tune down it’s attacks then that’s a small bonus. We should see over the next few days if this occurs but I doubt it. Besides it’s not like Russia has set a precedent to protect any of their assets or their allies besides helping shoot down some cruise missiles during Trumps face saving exercises.
Russia seems to be constantly playing a weak hand holding it’s best cards in reserve but like u pointed out playing some of those cards earlier could of greatly increased their position.
They’re gonna get boxed in and poked in all directions. The US will not lose as its too stupid to know if it has been beaten. It will just change the rules and use its limitless resources for war to continue the game.
I get that Russia doesn’t want to be a super power again and does not want the responsibility but it accepted that by opposing the US in Syria. The Zionists want Syria gone and Iran removed as an adversary. If that’s OK with Russia then go home. If not then Israel can in no way be considered a “partner” and the procacations will only increase in intensity and number.
yes..we have all come to look to Putin/Russia as the savior. but Russia/Putin cannot be savior of the world. Putin stood up for Russia rightly so. standing up for Russia in Syria against Khazar predation benefits the world as it weakens the Khazars.
but the rest of the people of the world must see after their own best interest, their own freedom. the rest of the people in the world..all who have compromised themselves for Khazar corruption are responsible for themselves and must correct their own situation..as they are responsible for their own corruption
that is also what I have said. the structures by which we live are corruptible. we have allowed the structure of capitalism to become entrenched. that structure is a pyramid with the power in society located at the apex. all the devil has to do is to corrupt the apex and the situation is his.
the apex is the president/prime minister/the military and civilian bureaucracies. so what must a society do to prevent corrupt capture of the society? simple..democratize and diffuse the social power. but as the apex is already corrupted democratization requires social reform or revolution. and when nations move like that the empire attacks in an array of ways up to invasion
but the empire could not invade Iran. honest democratization and structural integrity has prevailed in Iran. and in Venezuela, Bolivia we have really worthy efforts the world must support for their success also weakens the Khazars.
the global effort to weaken the USD and eliminate it as reserve is of this same piece. what would be of even greater effect would be for countries to start taking back their currencies and kicking out the Rothschilds. such activity would be a headache to the the Khazar global effort and take pressure off Venezuela and Bolivia, on Eretrea and other efforts at nationalist democratization.
America cant invade or carry out intelligence ops on every nation or most nations in the world at the same time. and as I said it is the responsibility of every nation to save themselves but they can best do this in some form of cooperation that defeats the hegemon. simple cooperation can be acting in their own best interest by taking back their currencies and repudiating the pointless national debt they are all loaded down with.
of course that would mean that the left oppositions in countries get the people to rise, clean out the corrupt and set up cooperative states in which the diffusion of power is real. all of this in concert with Russian nationalism as it expresses itself in the Russian effort in Syria will defeat the empire of the Khazars. but the rest of the world must do its part. they are not absolved from their responsibility to save themselves and in doing o help clean up the planet
Putin and Russia have done enough already in a major way. I have my ‘druther’s about Putin. he is human and he is capitalist, which is the major problem with him, the source of his growing economic and political problems in Russia. and Putin is also a white man who seems to be bothered..hampered indeed..by that fact in relations with Syria and Iran in particular. that is one reason why he finds himself behind with the Khazars in the ME region tactically. he is considering the white concerns when he concedes to the Khazars on Iran and Syria where weapons supplies are concerned
but these issues..the stage humans have arrived at with all the marbles on the table… transcends race. it is now for the human species to live or die by how we resolve the major global issue..late stage capitalism. in total failure, global late stage capitalist economy is in total ruins where Marxists long knew it would eventually arrive… and there is no way out of this final capitalist crisis, save to end capitalism by popular movement, into the only option available that can save society… and that is cooperative democracy, in which the people literally own and run their nations, evolving structures to facilitate such popular nationalist management as they go
such development ends the empire and humanity emerges with a real chance of going on indefinitely in nature.
such democracy ends the opportunity for fascism and Brave New World to prevail..opens up the chance for real truthful education of the people in democracy that generates social behavior opposite to the degradation of capitalism. that is peace and prosperity, human security as opposed to insecurity and the comprehensive degraded human behavior it generates
that is the opportunity of this day in the utter failure of capitalism. capitalism is at an end..it has run whatever course it has had as anything viable in the career of human in nature. it is past time for humanity to evolve socially, change our collective social base of operations. if we miss this opportunity humanity could well be toast soon enough.
if blood must be shed and it most surely will, in oceans of, I am hoping that it is mostly that of the oligarchs and their upholders in just about every society in the world..the elites and upper classes. but there is nothing stopping them from joining the peoples interest to allow for easier realization of popular democracy taking hold, going all the way this time, globally
that is the way I look at currently. if humanity is to live then we must all do what is required to survive. if we do we live. if we do not we die. seems simple enough
So they are claiming this is their excuse…..sounds terribly contrived to me…blame Russia for not getting out the Iranians…yuk.
TEL AVIV, September 20. /TASS/. Israeli Air Force Commander Amikan Norkin will head to Moscow to hand over the information on the Ilyushin Il-20 warplane crash in Syria, Israel’s Defense Forces said on Wednesday.
“On Thursday morning, a delegation of Israel’s Defense Forces headed by Major General Amikan Norkin, the Air Force Commander, will head to Moscow after the downing of a Russian plane by a Syrian missile on Monday night,” says the communique circulated by the military.
“The Air Force commander and the delegation will present data on the incident in all aspects, including preliminary information and main conclusions of the investigation,” it says.
The Israeli delegation will inform Russia “of Iran’s ongoing attempts to supply Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement with strategic weapons and to gain a military foothold in Syria,” the press service said.
You do not understand. Israel will not stop bombing Syria and harming Russia. Israel is the United States. The United States and Israel are one. Or Russia shows Israel who is in charge or better to go home. Before more Russians die in vain. Period.
Thanks for confirming that it was a screw up, Saker, and not a pre-meditated shoot down (I did wonder how the Israelis managed to predict the exact flight plan of the IL, but in fact they couldn’t..) .
But I do wonder what in the world they were doing over Latakia in the first place, if they knew that Syrian defense systems would latch on to them and try to shoot them down? (And probably would have if the Ilyushin hadn’t been there).
With what we know I don’t think that Israel deliberately set what happened. That was a dangerous situation in itself – a night air operation with the presence of anti air systems – with a lot of things that can go wrong. Moreover this operation was allowed by the bombing agreement between Israel and Russia. For what reason Israel would have done such a thing when has an over all good full alliance with Russia?. For the rest it is impossible to speak further about this accident without knowing the terms and clauses of israel – Russia “bombing agreement”. In this matter the more innocent are Israeli and Syrian and Russia can’t complain and blame no one if it has done a mess.
On the political side maybe someone can discuss how Russia can support at the same time both Israel and Syria … imagine in WW II the Americans helping UK fighting germany on the ground and helping Germany bombing England by air… this is a strange world really…
Oh, not so strange, monsieur,….in fact that really happened, after all….
“That was a dangerous situation in itself – a night air operation with the presence of anti air systems – with a lot of things that can go wrong. ”
does anybody force Israhell to do dangerous bombing night sessions on a souverain country that does nothing against them?
It’s the zionist cabal that creates these situations on purpose and hopefully one day Karma will hit these devils back very bloody
Unfortunately it is a tragic collateral damage of the Agreement with their Russian partners that allows such operations.
Ovdje se optužuje žrtva agresije za izraelske napade i francuske napade. Ovo je užasno licemjerno, uz užasno Izraelovo objašnjenje: Izrael optužuje Siriju za obaranje ruskog aviona, dodajući žalost za poginule Ruske vojnike, uz to ddaje još dva krivca Iran i Hezbollah. Ovdje se mora zastati na trenutak: Kakvo užasno licemjerje, Izrael i Francuska napadaju Siriju u jasnom kršenju međunarodnog prva . U vrijeme kada je Ruski avion nestao sa radara, zračne napade provodio je Izrael i Francuska na sjeverni dio Latakije, kao i luku Tartus, u dogovorenom kordiniranom napadu, dogovora Izraela i Francuske, naravno koje je morala odobtiri SAD. Činjenica da je veoma mudro Izraelski avion ušao pod Ruski koji mu je služio kao poklopac- navučen raketni napad koji će naravno pogoditi Ruski avion. Treba imati na umu da Ruski instruktori vode radare, dakle Rusi oborili sami svoj avion. Uz to treba imti na umu da Rusja neće da proda Siriji sisteme s-300 ili s-400. I sve se to zna. Agresija protiv Sirije je još očitija i potpuno neprihvatljiva, i još neprihvatljivije da se Sirija okrivljuje – Žrtva je Kriva. I ovim, kao i ne reagovanjem Rusija je širom otvorila vrata još većim napadima.
translation from translate.google.com … mod
Here is accused of a victim of aggression for Israeli attacks and French attacks. This is horribly hypocritical, with a terrible Israeli explanation: Israel accuses Syria of stealing a Russian plane, adding sadness to the slain Russian soldiers, with two more culprits left by Iran and Hezbollah. Here it must stop for a moment: What a horrible hypocrisy, Israel and France attack Syria in clear violations of the international first. At a time when the Russian plane had disappeared from the radar, air strikes were being conducted by Israel and France on the northern part of Latakia, as well as by the Tartus port, in a coordinated attack agreed upon by Israel and France, which, of course, had to be granted by the United States. The fact that a very wise Israeli plane entered Russia under him was a cover-up missile attack that would certainly hit the Russian plane. It should be borne in mind that the Russian instructors are running radar, so the Russians have dropped their own plane. In addition, it should be remembered that Russia will not sell Syrian s-300 or s-400 systems. And everything knows that. Aggression against Syria is even more apparent and completely unacceptable, and even more unacceptable that Syria blames – Kriva’s victim. And with this, as opposed to Russia’s response, it has opened the doors to even greater attacks.
You miss the fact that the air strikes are agreed and allowed by Russia.
Maybe now Russia will decide that the deals did not include their personnel dying and will load up one or more S300 systems onto a 747 and fly them to Damascus. Of course a no-fly zone around Syria would have to be imposed because it would take about a week to unload and set up and integrate the systms. If I had to guess the callsign of the aircraft I’d go with QFZ9950 as reported on another website.
We should be talking more about the agreement between Russia and Israel than whether Israel may have inadvertently violated it. Exactly what is the agreement? Why does it exist? Under what circumstances is it all right for Israel to conduct bombing missions inside Syrian territory? Why is no one talking about an agreement that allows Israeli aggression against Syria and assumedly against the Russian mission itself? Or maybe a better question is “what is the Russian mission?”
For the same token we should ask about Russia/US agreements….like the Helsinki one…
At war, everybody tries to reach non-agression agreements ( as the recent exposition on the Munich Agreement inaugurated by the Kremlin with fresh released documents showing the shenanigans of the different powers with each other shows ) at every stage of the war….or to limit damage,…. or to gain time…..like happened with the Molotov-Ribenthrop Pact ( the only one which has been talked about and because of which the demonization of USSR started even before the war itself…)….Time, experience on your oponent behavior, and mainly intelligence on the ground, will tell you whether you can trust your pact partner or not….
This is very a good point. Of course we’ll never know terms and clauses but we may wonder if for example is stated some type of active help by the russian such as targets intellingence/tracking or air defence dimming.
“What do we know for sure as of right now (Sept 20th)? We know that the Israelis did not give enough warning time to the Russians, which is in direct violation of an agreement between Israel and Russia. Do we know that they did it deliberately? No, we don’t. We really don’t.”
Couldn’t get past this try hard attempt at bending over backwards.
seems almost obvious “what happened”:
israel decides to attack syrian arms depot, uses the french ship as a decoy, syrian s-200 hits russian plane, fog of war leaves everyone EXCEPT israel wondering “what happened?”
“none of this would in any way exculpate the Israelis for the very simple reason that had the Israelis warned the Russians on time this entire tragedy might have been avoided even if the prime culprits are cowardly Israeli pilots, less than competent Syrian air defense crews or too trusting Russians. ”
No, none of this would have happened if Putin had refused to allow his bosom buddy Nazinyahu to bomb his ally, Syria, with impunity. Russia is being treated with contempt by the zionazi pseudostate for the simple reason that the Zios were bombing a “target” right next to the Russian Hmeimim airbase.
Nor is the loss of the Il 20 something minor. It was a very expensive, highly capable system manned by extremely well trained, hard to replace, valuable crew, each of whom had many years of irreplaceable experience. Do *not* attempt to whitewash that.
Stop defending the zionazi stooge and capitalist roader Putin. His “restraint” is making Russia look like a pushover and emboldening its enemies. What is the Amerikastani aircraft carrier Harry Truman doing in the Mediterranean right now, a health cruise?
To “Occasional Poster”
You summed up the situation very well here – bravo and thank you!
“The West is totally subservient to their Khazar masters. PCR articulates our despair that the west was long lost, and we are all just vassal states to foreign powers. there seems to be a total inability for the West to confront this enemy, or even to see it, so the responsibility is delegated by us, the very concerned but impotent western few, to Putin, without asking him.
Those awake in the west are marginal at best, and view with despair the ignorance of their fellow citizens, and their totally corrupt governments. Russia, and Putin, have defacto become the last hope for humanity, and hence bear the perceived moral pressure to rescue the West from its own failure.
It isn’t Russia’s responsibility to rescue the west. Maybe they have plenty of self interest to do so, maybe not. The truth is that while we merry few see and respect Russia’s historic relevance, the majority couldn’t give a damn for Russia, and are even spiteful towards Russia, and not least to Assad and Iran.”
The Israeli media, along with the hashbara net, are conducting a disinfo campaign so as to take a plus advantage from their , in their best style of not stitching without thread….
Now they also are saying, for the same reason, that they warned the Russians with more than one minute in advance…Well, even in the case that it would be with two minutes, it is still very few to react….The meeting in Moscow may have gone badly for the Israelis as the disinfo increases for seconds…they will try to take gain one way or the other….by creating turmoil and distrust amongst Russia and Syria allies…which could well be the main goal of this “operation”….
Debka reports today on the grilling received by Maj. Gen. Amikam Nurkin, Israel’s Air Force chief, in Moscow yesterday that extended well into the night.
“In Moscow, the Israeli officers produced electronic and other evidence showing Syrian air defense missile fire to be haphazard and unfocused. “It’s a wonder that the Syrians have not accidentally shot down other airplanes before,” they said. One of the key points which emerged was that Syria teams habitually let loose with their anti-air missiles against any incoming missiles, whether or not they are airborne – even if they are ground-to-ground or ship-to-shore weapons. However, how Syria conducts its air defenses has nothing to do with Israel.”
So, the Israelis are making the argument that Syria should have better air defense than the S-200?
Maybe the Russians should heed their advice.
It wasn’t a SNAFU. It was a carefully laid #NATO trap, sprung by co-ordinated French-UK-Israeli assets. The problem for NATO is that Russia has so far done the very thing they neither wanted, planned for nor expected – ie blamed Israel for forcing a Syrian AD cock-up.
See this Fort Russ article for full details. It is a long read but makes a lot more sense than anything I have read here about it so far.
Syria can never be a viable state as long as Israel, and NATO, bombs it at will and without punishment. Israel may squeal like pigs, but it’s time for Russia to stop this nonsense of allowing hostile missiles and bombers to fly here and there across Syria’s air space and through the air space of Russia’s own forces. This must include Lebanon’s air space because it is linked to Israeli attacks on Syrian and Russian forces.
Lieberman has already, post Il-20, stated that Israel will keep bombing Syria whenever and wherever it feels like. Let Russia put an end to that by giving Syria the most modern systems to defend itself. Syria has the right to self defense.
Of course, the apartheid “state” will call in Uncle Sam to threaten and build up forces against Russia if such a move is made. To keep upping the ante is the strategic thinking behind the attack that led to the downing of the Il-20. Russia on the other hand wants to keep things as low key as possible in order to defeat the Jihadist, and Kurdish turncoat, proxies on the ground in good order. But Russia must also realize that their goal of keeping Syria intact and rebuild it to become habitable for returning refugees is not compatible with non-stop Israeli warfare, subterfuge and treachery.
Israel. on the other hand, will have to give up any ideas of a Greater Israel on behalf of Lebanon and Syria. This Israel just cannot do. Greater Israel is the essence of Zionism. This leads us to Putin’s dilemma. He is dealing with insane fanatics with a lot of firepower. The trick is to defeat them without triggering any cornered crazy rat responses.
“Why in the world has nobody considered that the Israelis might have truly screwed-up?”
Saker, your opening question is kind of irrelevant!
The real question is: is Israel an enemy or a friend of Russia?
If Russia thinks Israel is both a friend and foe, they are screwed!
The Kremlin should answer that question first and then act accordingly.
In my opinion, Zionism is an enemy of mankind.
Which simplifies your question to “does the Israeli leadership exhale Zionism?”
This article is very unclear as to the nature of the guilt by the guilty party. It reads almost like an exercise in an ambiguous mimicry, where at various times you begin to point a stern finger at the guilty party and almost simultaneously your gesture morphs in to something else.
Why in the world has nobody considered that the Israelis might have truly screwed-up?
I suppose that’s a fair question.
But later in the article we read:
By “warning” the Russians just 1 minute before the attack the Israelis created an environment in which such a tragedy simply had to happen
Well then, if this is so, then the answer to that question is no longer a mystery. The question becomes kind of rhetorical, doesn’t it? Let’s say I am feeling very vicious and daring one day and I decide to play a beefed-up version of Russian roulette on the temple of one of my business partners. So I load, say, 4 bullets in the cylinder, instead of one, for maximum adrenaline. He gets killed right away. And I go “oops” with a little grin. Would anyone be willing to what I did a “screw up”?
Do you remember that music producer, Phil Spector. He was a little ugly man who liked to carry a gun with him into recording studios. He would often get drunk out of his mind and wave the loaded gun at singers and musicians, or put it to their heads, as reported by the late Leonard Cohen. In wild parties at home he would also put a gun to women’s heads for maximum thrill, or whatever. One day he became agitagted with this girl, so he stuck the barrel of his gun inside her mouth and blew her brains out. Let’s call it a screw up. Come on!
That’s how I see it, sorry. What kind of a reply Russia should give (if any) is definitely NOT one of those things I consider myself qualified to give an opinion on. But viewing this as a “screw up” strikes me as rather preposterous (and mildly insulting to the memory of the dead).
It is clear now that the Israeli attack on Russia is three pronged, at minimum:
1. Irresponsible Israeli attack that led to the downing on the Il-20 (best case scenario).
2. Orchestrated Israeli military campaign to deceive President Putin and the Russian MoD (Gen. Norkin executing)
3. Hasbara operations against Putin and Russia’s presence in Syria.
Even if the downing of the Il-20 was an accident (yeah, right) the follow up has to be profoundly insulting to the Russians.
A couple of good questions by the Saker. Here are some possibilities:
what would the Israelis gain from shooting down the Il-20?
The most obvious response is that the IL-20 was gathering information which the Israelis did not want to be revealed. Perhaps Israeli operational forces trapped in Idlib that Erdogan is uncooperative about rescuing? One can only speculate at this point. The Israelis attacked the Liberty for similar reasons.
Beyond that the attack “tested the waters”. Israel wants to remove Assad. The Russian presence complicates this. We had believed that while Russia would allow Israel to attack Iranian presence in Syria, or even Government assets, they surely would not dare risking an attack in which Russians were at risk. The stakes have been raised and going forward Israel can proceed with much less restraints on their freedom of action.
But could they be sure that the local commanders would not order an immediate retaliation (as their current rules of engagement do authorize them to!)?
They could not be sure. No doubt this is why the remarks of Shoygu stirred such a frenzied response. He clearly terrified them. But, obviously, Israel could minimize the risk of retaliation by making the takedown look like an accident as was done for the Liberty attack. If that doesn’t work, blame the French. And of course continue with a relentless stream of propaganda against Syria, Iran and Hezbollah.
For as long as the Israelis keep on bombing alleged Iranian targets in Syria, their diplomacy in the Middle East will be like a car with a stuck clutch.
If one looks closely, by allowing Israel to bomb “Iranian” targets in Syria, Russia is indirectly preventing Iran from becoming too influential in the mideast – which might complicate things further…
With all due respect–and the Saker is due huge respect, being one of may small honest sites determined to keep the lights on–the issue nobody wants to raise is: by what right or rationale does Israel launch attacks against a sovereign state with whom it is, theoretically at least, not at war? As for the FUK part of FUKUS, they will be the obedient sycophants they are and do exactly what the zionists tell them.
As Putin said:
“The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.”
I’ll add that the barkers only accomplishment is annoying the locals. Not the folk in the caravan.
While I agree with almost all of this post, I still believe that the Israelis intended to bring down the surveillance plane. While it will be replaced, it may not be replaced quickly and the Israelis may have seen that as a possible advantage for their further operations against Syria.
However, I do agree that it is possible that the Israeli pilots were merely ordered to fire missiles in the vicinity of the Russian base as their primary mission – just to irritate the Russians or in some way to display their displeasure at the Russian-Turkey Idlib deal which derailed a possible US attack on Syria – and only hid behind the surveillance plane when they were painted by Syrian radar. Certainly this is a possibility. In other words, while the Israeli operation was meant as a provocation it is possible that it accidentally went further than expected. But the other possibility remains possible – that Israel intended to down that aircraft.
I doubt that Netanyahu really is “in a panic” over the shoot down, whether deliberate or accidental. More likely he is merely attempting to derail any “excessive” Russian response and cloud what happened so as to make a Russian response less likely or effective.
Those who say Putin is too soft are wrong. Putin made it quite clear that Russia would respond when he said Russia would take measures “which people will see.” By “people” he clearly meant Israel. Clearly he is angry and clearly Russia will gets its revenge in a manner which Israel will not expect.
The obvious responses will be to replace the surveillance plane and this time make sure it is escorted by fighters who will engage any aircraft that comes near it. In addition, I suspect that the next time Israel attacks Syria, the Russians will use an S-300 to down them, while letting Syria take the credit and claim it was an S-200. This will allow Russia to get its revenge while still keeping diplomatic relations with Israel on a publicly even keel, which is a necessity not to undo everything Russia has achieved in Syria by starting a war with Israel, in which the US would undoubtedly take Israel’s side.
IAF uses IL-20 as cover to attack Iranian base in Latakia.
SAA responds by firing SAMs at IAF F-16s.
French Auvergne radar picks of SAMs, thinks it is under fire, and launches missiles to intercept.
IL-20 is downed by Auvergne accidently.
The only adult in the room, Putin, figures that IAF is ultimately responsible, and lets his generals level the charges against them.
Pure speculation there. Kind of assuming that the ‘Auvergne’ didn’t see the Il-20 flight doing its figure of eight track on its radar for several hours beforehand.
Kind of assuming that the Israelis weren’t also ‘lighted up’ by Auvergne if that was the case.
Then there’s the Russian frigate ‘Pytlivy’ nearby shadowing the FREMM. And other Russian ships that would have picked any French activated systems in an instant.
No the French weren’t ‘under fire’. They would have no need to engage with Syrian AD SAMS. Otherwise that would be an messy situation even to the Russian Navy.
Bit counterproductive imho.
NSouth, correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t the weapons inventories of military vessels strictly controlled and monitored? If the French ship had fired missles, would that not have been logged and confirmed when the inventory of the ship was next audited, perhaps upon return to port? Anyway, my point is, if the French had fired missles they would have had to admit it. They could misrepresent the reason for the fire and claim they shot down the IL-20 “accidentally” as part of an operation against ISIL but they could not get away with denying the launches.
Who’s going to supervise the “audit” – the French?
Plus the log can simply be faked on the ship by simply not listing the firing and instead claiming the missile was “misplaced” or “returned due to damage caused by an irrelevant matter.” Who other than the sailors on the ship can prove otherwise?
However, I doubt the French ship was actually involved. But we’ll never know unless Russia releases radar or other evidence. Radar is not precise – the Syrians or Russians could have misinterpreted radar traces of the Israeli missile attack as a French missile attack. A lot of radar involves “interpretation” by the radar operators because the traces can be fouled up by weather conditions, ground clutter, etc. The only accurate radar would be from the surveillance plane – if it was turned on as they prepared to land – but they got blown up.
Richard, personally I believe the French involvement to be either nothing or a misdirection by Israel undertaken as part of the operation for which I hold Israel solely responsible. The arguments against French involvement are almost too numerous to list. I find it annoying that these distractions have arisen to confuse the situation. Very similar to the Liberty.
As I pointed to in my above comment (http://thesaker.is/putin-israel-and-the-downed-il-20/#comment-561651), Iran has brought these attacks upon Syria by their intemperate use of Syrian turf to build logistical bases.
Iran bears the responsibility for taunting Israeli attacks.
That puts Russia in the middle. It attempts to force Russia to defend not only its own assets, and Assad’s assets, but Iran’s assets inside Syria. This, Putin will not do.
Iran is feckless as an ally. It has created a dilemma Russia is unprepared at this time (not rich or strong enough yet) to deal with. Russia has fought the war with brilliant strategy and tactics, taking losses in stride (at home the people are accepting shootdowns, assassinations, accidents and FUBARs extremely well). However, they won’t accept a war waged against the Israelis and US which would put thousands of Russians into coffins and body bags. They are ready for that at the border of Russia, not 1000kms away. Not yet. Not for quite some time. Not for Syria, Assad, the Golan, or for the Shia Crescent, especially.
Every single commenter who demands Russia engage in war with the Hegemon seems to me from their words that they are not Russian citizens. In fact, I have not seen anyone here claim to be part of the Russian world.
Saker is of the Russian world. Andrey Martyanov is Russian (and a military expert). They are stakeholders in what Russia does and what happens to Russians.
The rest of us? Armchair fat-asses with a POV. Many of us care about punishing evil, righting wrongs, stopping the carnage, bringing war criminals to justice. But that’s all.
We don’t bear responsibility for the nation of Russian. We don’t have 147,000,000 lives of men, women and children, in our care.
We don’t have to go to sleep every night knowing a monster Hegemon is trying to destroy the Russian economy, defeat the Russian military, inflict every kind of warfare upon the Russian people (including cyberwarfare, information warfare, biological warfare, germ warfare on the agriculture of Russia, and assassinate leaders in the Russian world who support Russian Federation goals and missions.)
So think outside the boundaries of your armchair HQ. You know nothing of what actually happened. You depend on a few news reports and then an onslaught of fat-ass opinions and POV slants. The reliable reports you ignore.
I look to two sources in this matter so far. Kedmi the Israeli and Martyanov and his linked Russian experts.
Every other opinion is useless. Even Saker’s carries too much distance from Russia and the military.
Don’t ever forget that point I make, Iran baits the attacks, is what is causing the dilemma for the Russians in Syria.
Tehran needs to cease using Syria this way at this time.
Allow Russia to finish the war against the takfiris.
Meanwhile, the IDF should be blocked by a NO FLY ZONE and S-300 and S-400s commanded and operated by Russians in defense of Syria. This can only happen if the Iranians cease their baiting. (Ever ask how the IDF knows of every shipment, every truck and plane with cargo sent by Iran and where it is as soon as it arrives in Syria?)
Hiding behind Russian and Syrian allies is what has been going on by Iran. They did what the Israelis did. They have been hiding behind Russians and Syrians hoping a few IDF planes would be taken down in the process.
It is a cynical strategy. These two enemies fight their war over the bodies of innocents. It would be lovely to see them find a battlefield where others do not suffer while they pound one another into pulp.
The big stakes are to break the hegemony of the US-Israel. Russia alone has put its flesh and blood into the fight. I would never criticize anything they do or don’t do. They alone have come a long way and risked much and have lost hundreds and hundreds of good people to save Syria. God bless Russia and their mission in Syria.
And damn the warmongering US and Israelis and all those who work against the stabilization of Syria and the return of all the Syrian people to a safe homeland.
“Iran bears the responsibility for taunting Israeli attacks.”
“Iran is feckless as an ally”
I am sorry but these remarks are completely and totally untrue and the statement about Iran being responsible for Israeli attacks is, sorry to say, outrageous and very surprising to see on this site though common enough in the AZ media.
The Russians would most certainly disagree with you.
Perhaps you might read my comment above
Well, blaming Iran in the same grade as Israel, as you do, sounds all the way like the israeli line of defense on this issue….
Iran for what is worth has all the right to have bases in Syria, whenever the Syrian government agrees to it, as it has them Russia, and for the flesh and blood put into this fight, both, Iran and Hezbollah, have put if not the same order of magnitude, maybe even more than the Russians.
“The big stakes are to break the hegemony of the US-Israel”.
I which Iran and Hezbollah have contributed a lot, I would say….. Why you choose to spread shit, and blame, over Iran who has behaved exemplary in this war, in spite of all the dirt, sanctions, and loses verted and inflicted on it from the US current administration ( whom you, btw, supported everyhwere in the net as if there was no tomorrow ) is beyond me,…or not so….
“Russia alone has put its flesh and blood into the fight”
Again, you, willingly, forget the Iranian, Lebanese, Iraqi and even Palestinian flesh put into this fight.
Finally, with respect to stakeholding in Russian issues, I very doubt any Russian former military people currently living in the US ( for whatever reasons ) had them many or few contacts still in the RF, have them higher than any of us who have passed the last years supporting Russia all over the net, risking our well shaped armchair general´s asses in that.
And do not forget that Kedmi is an Israeli….He could look like santa, but we should not forget where his loyalties most probably are.
Are you then of the opinion that if Iran was not in Syria the Israelis would not be dropping bombs on SAA and civilian facilities?
Because if, like me, you think “Notta darn – they’d just make up a munitions dump” then I’m wondering why you’re decrying Syria’s sovereign right to invite whom they damn well please to their war? … You are aware it’s their war aren’t you? It might be everybody else’s game of Risk – but it’s their war.
Russia takes losses based on its goals.
Some of those losses now are linked to and the result of Iranian goals.
I suggest that the Iranian policy of taunting the IDF is costing Russian lives and Syrian lives and Syrian infrastructure.
None of you who object to this line of thinking (that Iran should stand down and only direct action against the Islamic terrorists) have addressed the issue that Iran instigates the problem. We all know Israel operates like the US outside international law and norms. That is pro forma for the big Hegemon and the wannabe hegemon.
However, Iran’s invitation in Syria is to help Syria fight the proxy armies and to get back all the borders pre-war.
I don’t think Assad wants to be attacked by Israel. Just guessing that. Nor to be the target for US, UK, French missile strikes. Just guessing that.
Now, let’s go to what I said. And please dear critics, deal with this: Iran ships weapons into Syria that Israel knows what, when and where they are almost as they land. How is this possible? Think about it.
I suspect that like Israel goading US to fight its big war against Iran, Iran wants Russia to fight its war with US and Israel.
I call for Iran to stop the shipments and basing in Syria and give it a break to let the Russians and Syria finish the war, calm the nation and get reconstruction under way. Perfect time is now.
Bad enough we have White Helmets and al Nusra with chemical false flags. We don’t need Iran baiting IDF missiles attacks for a while.
It serves no tactical or strategic purpose for Iran to keep arming Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Israel starts another war against Lebanon, Hezbollah will burn down half of Israel with their 100,000 rockets. So such a war is a non-starter.
The Likud government is an outlaw regime. It needs no more inducements to think of ways to destroy the accomplishments of Syria, Assad, Putin and Russia.
The Russian military infrastructure in Syria is thin and almost indefensible against a large NATO-US-Israeli attack. Even if they had 3 or 4 S-400 units, the drone, missile avalanche that could be used against them would be devastating and the Russians would lose all their planes and in-port ships.
The reality is Russia is fighting a brilliant war with minimal force structure. But it could be totally destroyed in half-hour if the US so chose.
And remember this, Iran uses mostly Shia militias from Iraq and Afghanistan as their proxy force structure in Syria. This isn’t Iran’s regular military there. And they were losing badly, got 5000 Hezbollah killed, and who knows how many wounded before the Russian’s came. They were going to lose everything in weeks if Putin hadn’t intervened.
So, understand the facts. Don’t construe more than what I wrote. Iran plays a role. It should do what is logical to minimize the impact against Syrian and Russian by the criminal IDF and US CENTCOM, as well as the devious UK and French forces.
Assad has made himself and his forces, in practice, generally, subservient to Putin’s strategy and the Russian Commanders. Iran, at the least, should follow suit.
And what say you that Iran is not following suit? As far as I know there are Iranians in the central command room of the allies in Syria who are really fighting the terrorists, and besides, what do you think are all those meetings amongst the Russians, Iranians and Turks for?
Not to mention your exaggeration of both, Israeli (Removed. No attacking Saker or other commenters. Mod) and US military might….Where, in your storm of missiles and drones, gets the US and Israeli public opinion in the verge of midterm elections and Netanyahu about to go into jail fro thousands cases of corruption if something of that happens and they start receiving a retaliatory storm of more or less the same over their heads?
Then you assure that what Iran is shipping into Syria ( in case it is shipping anything at all and this attack is not a provokation to reignite the war in Syria after the “gas attack hoax” was dismantled and spoiled by the Russians by leaking it to the media from weeks in advance…which is the most plausible outcome…) are destined to Hezbollah and not to Syria itself?
Iran is in Syria at Syria’s request. They have a mutual defense treaty. It is up to you to prove your assertion that Iran is setting up bases without permission. Or that somehow it isn’t “subordinating” itself to Russia. I haven’t seen anything that comes close to suggesting that.
Ditto for Iran “goading” Israel to attack. You imply that Israel is only hitting Iranian weapons intended for Israel. Where are your “facts” that back this up? The Times of Israel?
Iran “fighting badly, got 5000 Hezbollah killed”. Iran and Hezbollah are allies, one isn’t subordinate to the other, such “thinking” is either a gross oversimplification or as a result of believing propaganda. Hezbollah got involved out of its own prerogative, namely it new damn well if Syria fell, southern Lebanon and the Bekaa — in fact all of the Lebanon — would be next. So it sent its crack troops as well as trainees, and many died in the effort.
Iran, for its part, sent boots on the ground, because that’s what they had. Russia had the planes, Iran and Hezbollah had the manpower. Now Iran sent second-rate boots for sure, and that criticism is valid. However, also valid is the response that Iran, being next in line for FUKUS humanitarianism, perhaps decided that it needs its crack troops at home. Or that having brigades of Revolutionary Guards up next to the Golan would invite a true western intervention. I haven’t seen a source I deem credible as saying there are out-and-out Iranian troops there beyond advisors. As far as I can tell they’ve only sent in Afghans and volunteer militia to do the actual fighting.
Moreover your entire line of argument is that if Iran wasn’t in the fight, the IDF wouldn’t be bombing Syria. Again some facts or evidence would be nice to back up such an exceptional claim. I for one find that laughable if not for the simple fact that Israel has been randomly bombing or assassinating in Syria for decades. This didn’t pop up after Iran heeded its ally’s request for help.
Exceptional claims require exceptional evidence, I have not seen any provided to back up your assertions.
Agree, anonymous, but I would add another reason, apart from geopolitical ones, on why Iran and Hezbollah are fighting in Syria, and it is that in Damascus it is placed the Holy Shrine of Sayyida Zeynab, a venerated Shia saint, just the sister of Imam Hussein, whose martyrdom is celebrated these days of Ashura.
Thus, there have been all over this long 7 years of war a Hezbollah and shia volunteers unit permenently placed in guard around this shrine, the same as it is permantly surrounded by anti-tank bollards the Baalbeck Mosque dedicated to another little relative of Imam Hussein. A whole unit of these martyrs fell in the last months, they were all very young…. Not to mention that the Ummayad Mosque of Damascus is one of the main places of pilgrimage too for all the Islamic ( and I would say that even Christian ) world.
Why these people have their soldiers in guard permanently at these sites? Because, as the continuous intents by Israel in demolishing and transforming the Al Aqsa Mosque into a Jewish temple show since its very inception as state, and the unnecesary outmost destruction suffered by Iraq ( especially its excellent and irrecoverable Bagdad Museum which was savagely pillaged and many of whose important pieces ended in the hands of, curiously, or not so, Jewish millionares…) this war in Syria is not only about pipelines ( and even this is something our friend from Larchmont willingly, because he is not such obtuse, forgets…so, nothing will change, or even will go worst, if Iran would dissapear from the surface of Earth, as he wishes…), but it is also about erasing ancient cultures and spiritual and human values, but especially the Holy sites of Islam, more concretely of Shia Islam. Call it a Crusade ( well, are not those in the current Trump administration fundamentalist Christians and Jews? Although may well be their real religion is money….. ) and you will not be so misdirected…
The Shia world, with all its faults ( well, they are humans, do not forget it…), once the genuine European left neutralized and disarticulated through decades of demonization or coopted for the glory of neoliberalism, is the last Mohican out there defending justice against opression and fighting for the rights and freedom from slavery of the poor and opressed, thus, a stone in the shoe of corporate savage capitalism. These people´s deep faith and beliefs becomes this way a military target for the looters and slave traders of the world, as they were the communists after WWII, especially for the US.
It serves no tactical or strategic purpose for Iran to keep arming Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Israel starts another war against Lebanon, Hezbollah will burn down half of Israel with their 100,000 rockets. So such a war is a non-starter.
Is this some kind of joke? If Hezbollah being armed is what’s preventing Israel from starting another war against Lebanon, then how is it that “It serves no tactical or strategic purpose for Iran to keep arming Hezbollah in Lebanon” ??
Anonymous on September 22, 2018, Larch…445 is contradictory, and this is not the first time… This makes me think that perhaps he is not who we think he is…
So…. you think Iran shouldn’t be there and shouldn’t be supplying Hezbollah and then —- Israel will stop breaking international law, violating the sovereignty and airspace of Syria and Lebanon, bombing people and civilian and military infrastructure and just generally behave like a good neighbour should?
Else, why pick on Just-Iran? There are an awful lot of countries there that shouldn’t be there, with permission, without permission, actually and by proxy. Directly or indirectly, something like … 80? And you pick just one. Is your pick the significant one – or just the obvious one?
Then I’ll point out this to you:
Iran is not the reason Israel bombs Syria, Iran is the excuse. If Iran (and Hezbollah) were to magically-disappear PFFT we’d be hearing “Our intelligence informs us Iraq, supplied by Timbuktu, is transporting weapons by way of the Yazidi in Syria to a Christian fundamentalist militant group in Lebanon who want to attack Israel and start the war to bring about the End of Days and the Rapture. We are defending ourselves.” Excuses are limited only by the human imagination.
And second, Russia has the means to pressure Syria. Significant means. Significant pressure. As far as we know, they have not done so to urge Damascus to request Iran leaves.
I have read this sub-discussion with its comments, and there is one thing that struck me.
You all have valid points, but some of them are based on *moral* grounds, whereas Larchmonter 445 bases this on *realistic* grounds, whether we like it or not.
Let’s face it: the USA and Israel don’t give a flying f**k about agreements and international laws when it suits them, the JCPOA being the last scandalous fact.
And we can give all our opinions about this, but that is not immediately going to change it (it is even becoming more and more unclear who is pulling the strings in Washington, if any, and that is the real danger).
Iran knows darn well that they are a target, even when there is no official reason. The USA and Israel just want that Iran dances for them, that is the reality.
I have thought about Iranian shipments to Hezbollah. Of course the Mossad intercepts some of them, they are no amateurs. But are that all of them? Besides that, Hezbollah may want upgrades of their weaponry, also weapons may grow technically out of date.
Israel sees emerging strongholds of Iran in Syria as a threat, whether we like it or not. The point was made, to have a kind of pause in that, to just taking away a reason from Israel to meddle in the already complicated situation there. This will give the focus more on getting rid of that many thousands of flown-in mercenaries (because that is what they are, in some MSM they still speak of a ‘civil war’, well, how many Syrians are among those takfiris?).
Imho, from a realistic point of view, this point is well worth consideration.
A last point, just speaking for myself: of course I react from a chair, typing while standing is not convenient. I’d like to add that I am not a professional military. I have done military service, but changed that to industrial engineering, the reverse, from blowing up and sabotaging stuff to building stuff and making things work.
That does not exclude that I may have an opinion on things. When I’m dead wrong, or may lack actual intel on military matters, I am fully open to other info or may change my opinion.
All that is needed is an adult and open discussion. Can we agree on that?
I am not a muslim, but I like to end with a typical greeting of them: Peace be upon you all.
Larchmonter’s points depend on accepting at face value Israel’s rationale for hostility towards Syria. Those who are familiar with the history of the two countries may find this naiive. Israel and Syria remain in a formal state of war which Israel sees no need to end. Particularly if the question of the status of the Golan Heights is raised. Israel is an important part of the anti-Assad alliance. They have provided weapons, intelligence, combat air support and medical assistance to terrorist groups. Assad will always be considered an enemy of Israel and the Jewish people since he is the son of Hafez Assad if for no other reason. Removing the Iranian presence in Syria will not be enough to make Israel play nice.
On the long term you are absolutely right.
The point however, was to do this for a certain period, buying time, and focus completely on those ‘rebels’ with regularly changing funky names.
Then there is the unasked presence of the US military, desperately trying to install a Kurdish statelet (that Turkey will never allow) and stealing their oil. The Golan Heights will be difficult, I think Israel will never give that back.
It’s about priorities. It’s about taking away ‘reasons’, selling to the public (though the Israelis are quite good in that). What else can they than do? Bombing empty buildings, like the USAF, to ‘send a message’ (when I want to do that I grab my cell phone, but that does not work in politics)?
The best Syria can do is a status quo that Israel will think twice before attacking. Shot down IAF airplanes do not sell well. Do not underestimate that after years of combat, the SAA is quite a force to deal with. Israel will also think twice before invading Lebanon, raining rockets of Hezbollah for a few weeks will destroy their economy.
Don’t underestimate the cleverness of Syrians either. An intriguing story, how the Israelis were completely fooled, and that the bombed nuclear reactor in Syria was just an empty building: https://www.globalresearch.ca/israels-ploy-selling-a-syrian-nuke-strike/5618977
Imho it’s just buying time and prioritizing. But you are right that Israeli face value trusting is not a solid idea.
Rob, the risk here though, is that removing Iran from Syria may undercut and weaken Assad’s position. If he is weakened sufficiently an operation may be undertaken to remove him. Assad’s successor would no doubt be selected in a “free and open” election which would be internationally supervised to “assure fairness”. Such a process would likely lead to a President that would be hostile to the Russian presence. At that point the Russian presence in Syria may become untenable.
“Israel sees emerging strongholds of Iran in Syria as a threat, whether we like it or not. The point was made, to have a kind of pause in that, to just taking away a reason from Israel to meddle in the already complicated situation there. ”
But Israel sees everything as a threat.
What about that Syria sees Israel as a threat?
The latter is much more realistic than the former, methinks.
Israel seeing threats and using their supposed fear as a pretext for aggression is just the Israeli playbook.
Basically the same as: I am upset by what you say, so you have to stop saying it!
If Syria has invited Iran into Syria, Iran has a right to be there.
Israel has no right to be anywhere in Syria.
Enough Israeli “hand holding”—we have to make Syria feel “safe” for Israel.
What am I missing here???
Sometimes you have to draw a clear boundary. After watching the MoD briefing (excerpts), it is clear that Russia has been extremely accommodating to Israel’s quasi-legitimate interests. In return, an adult nation would honor Russia’s decision to allow Iranians to build a factory near to its airport.
Think of the consequences. The key to winning this conflict means the foreign nationals must feel safe inside the borders of Syria. It is no excuse that Iran and Hezbollah have challenged Israel militarily. Israel has challenged these countries militarily, too. For Russia to allow any nation to dictate to Syria and Russia who may or may not have a presence inside Syria is to admit that Russia will not achieve the goal of full sovereignty for Syria over Syrian territory.
Russia has already announced plans to build an automobile factory in Syria. Recall my earlier assertion that Syria will be the western terminus of the New Silk Road; the key to Syria’s full recovery will be China’s investment. Can Russia allow Israel to decide that China is not allowed to build factories wherever Syria allows it to build? The answer is obviously NO.
Russia has drawn a line in the sand and Israel must grow up (impossible, I know for the chosen people). Unless Russia stands firm and enforces that line in the sand (i.e. Obey. The. Deconfliction. Agreement.), it will not succeed in restoring Syria’s sovereignty. Considering that Russia has stated its goal of restoring Syria’s full sovereignty over all its territory, it is clear that Russia will do whatever is necessary to achieve this goal.
The complicating factor is that IFUKUS is willing to risk a hot war to defeat Russia in its goal. I strongly suspect that Putin will play for as much time as needed to defeat IFUKUS economically to the point where IFUKUS is militarily incapable. Keep in mind, Russia has already determined that IFUKUS is ‘agreement incapable.’
If we go by that standard Iraq was responsible for American aggression against them, for having American oil under their soil, Russia is responsible for USA/NATO aggression against them, for existing as a sovereign entity,etc.
Iran is in Syria with permission from the Damascus government, same as Russia, unlike some uninvited occupying forces inside the country and Israel has no right attack Syrian territory, regardless of who the Syrians invite into their country.
The logic goes like this:
Israel wants the Litani River.
Hizbollah prevents Israeli from stealing water from the Litani River.
Iran helps Hizbollah.
So, if you impose no-fly zones that cover Lebanon, under the guise of protecting Russian assets in Syria, then Iran has no reason to be in Syria.
James, I sort of agree with what you are saying, but I disagree with you saying “So, …., then Iran has no reason to be in Syria.”
Iran has all the reason to be in Syria, as long as they have an agreement on military cooperation and assistance, which Iran does. Also, Syria, contrary to popular belief, is awash of the mercs running around and murdering Syrian citizens. So, Iran and Hezbollah donate blood, while Russia is sort of trying to keep order and making backdoor deals with US.
Just a thought, sorry bud.
I agree that everyone has to stand back and let Russia solve this riddle and finish the war with victory for The Sovereign State of Syria. Iran has played a critical role in the actual fighting, but the very fact that Iran is there, by invitation, annoys Five Points and Foggy Bottom, hence Israel screaming about Iran bases in Syria as a threat.
That is bovine scatology at it’s finest, Israel is nothing but another proxy of Uncle Sam, a proxy that, so far, is untouchable no matter what it does. Iran does not have the strength or ability to put a real army in Syria and with that army attack Israel. Think logistics. If Iran had enough soldiers to attack Israel from Syria, the logistics tail would be so long, so thin, that it would be cut in minutes by several means and look like diced cucumber. Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics.
Bottom line. Russia, President Putin and MoD Shoigu will do what is needed to solve this problem. We may, probably should use the term ‘will’, never know what was done, but actions speak louder than words. The next few weeks will tell all.
As for the blood curdling screams of some to ‘have at the Israelis’, the takfiri, all the numerous terrorists organizations whose names are word soup and change almost daily, be my guest. Israel pays well, Syria pays well, Iran pays well, and possibly Russia pays well. Get your butts out of your comfortable armchairs, flutter on over to the combat zone, pick up an automat and have at it. Put your sorry butts where your mouth is.
Never The Last One https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
Sevastopol, The Third Defense. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B079KRPLS4 Book 1, A Premonition, The Move South. Set against a backdrop of real events and real places, the reader is left to filter fact from fiction.
Aus, I just loved your comment, particularly: “… That is bovine scatology at it’s finest …”
I’ll add that the ones who spread this scatology think of themselves as above anyone else, hence their demands.
Well, Marcell’s comment below is also there with yours.
I understand your thinking in terms of the Iranian influence.
But if you take it from a purely pragmatic Iranian perspective based on their interests, then I believe that Iran wants to have as much influence in Syria and Lebanon as much as possible. And if that means using the Russians, then so be it.
The Russians know the Iranians want this and have therefore agreed that they will let Israelis bomb Iranians without lifting a finger. They are by no means “allies” in this regard, just pragmatic partners that form military coalitions when it suits them.
Russia cannot enforce Iran, just as Iran cannot enforce Russia and have therefore agreed to these terms.
There is even a possibility that there are Iranian factions that wants Israel to start bombing Russians, so that Russia will react and get Israel off their backs.
I atypically find myself at odds with the theme of your comments, Larch. Coming at a seemingly ‘cherry-picked’ level of analysis of the overall situation is out-of-trend for your year-over-year commentary.
I will give my full respect with critical this rejoinder.
At it’s base strategy, the primary aim (first principle) of the Syrian government, any legitimate government, is to preserve the national sovereignty of the country. Regardless of any necessarily subordinated policies.
Perhaps consideration of the cya (cover-your own-ass) principle must be considered, yet there is no conclusive evidence that the Syrian government is even below the median for all world government, let alone the MENA.
The Syrian government has invited Iran into the country.
This invitation was made in alignment with the first principle, as cited above; and one could very convincingly argue that the outcomes, so far, greatly favour the achievement of this first principle.
Let’s look at the other key players:
Turkey – a great analysis has been done at Southfront, see here, at the mods discretion, of course: https://southfront.org/turkish-strategy-in-syria-military-operations-proxies-and-idlib-issue/
Russia: In short, it looks like, at the end of the day, Russia seeks to present the MENA and the entire world with a viable alternative to the unipolar takeover of the planet, and realize that the MENA, and particular, Iranian and Syrian stability, as critical to at least stalling the unipolar steamroller.
The Russian high level strategic priority, also based in longer term Russian first principle of governance, is very much in alignment with the first principle of Syrian governance, and similarly in Iran.
the illegal occupation entity, a defacto terrorist training facility for enabling the globally distributed fifth columns collective operatives to realize the first principle for the ideological elite of the collective, global subordination.
this player is exceptional, surprise, surprise, but only in their overt extremism in systemically game-playing any moral boundaries, and executing any amount of hypocrisy and manipulations to achieve world domination; the ongoing continuance of their primary training facility is subordinated to this priority; and it seems they are building a backup facility, somewhere in the extreme south of South America, on formerly Argentinean sovereign territory, now effectively, (and secretly) annexed.
To clarify, they are exceptional in not sharing the same first principle in their system of governance in place in their neo-state-like-entity in the eastern Mediterranean.
The primary co-opted geo-political bully state vassal of the 0.1% socio-political-financial elite, aka the USA:
having been reduced to a slave-bully-state, by factions in the 0.1% socio-political-financial elite, one may substitute the the average of their agenda, effectively ongoing kleptocracy, aimed at furthering their consolidation of power via their large ponzi scheme, the costs of which continually grow, as more get into the financial elite, and the ones on top continue to get logarithmic increases in their on-paper extreme power; the weight of the cost, is of course, being thrust into the 99%, which is crumbling/bleeding to death.
Acknowledgement: this elite ponzi-scheming-faction is as distributed as the global fifth-column ideological collective, and in many cases, are one and the same individuals/groups; the only geo-national differentiation is the extent of the agencies effective control, which varies across ‘nation-state‘ boundaries.
Russia’s immediate tactical approach to the murder of individuals of their (comparatively) ‘good-faith’ family in the services:
Russia leadership is effective enough to avoid a lose-lose-lose shootout with the radical zealots employed by the geo-political ponzi-scheming elite; likely, never meaningfully addressing this directing cancer controlling the destructive activities.
Russian leadership is well aware of these factions, and to at least some extent, self-aware of the penetration of these factions into it’s own governing systems and processes.
To verify and validate the root directors of the murder, and establish the best means of mitigating future murders of it’s like, Russia defers responses to their first principle strategic objective, requires more time than 24-48 hours.
Thus, it is logically consistent to assume that all official Russian (and many unofficial) communications about the incident be designed to leave the maximum leeway for activities and processes to address the murder, when the investigations into causes and root malefactors be completed with a high level of confidence in the findings.
Thus, we see the door left open for many actors to eventually be attributed as contributors/primary antagonists in the mass murder.
Note on the use of the term “mass murder:
Since many of the agitators in this crime are, by measure of international law, not acknowledged participants in an at war condition, they are not covered under any wartime amnesty provisions, and therefore, the murder of the legally invited and lawfully participating Russian armed services members is murder, and by extended definition, this is clearly, and unambiguously mass murder.
The obvious facts:
1. the IDF air division, clearly clever-cleverly (as usual, as if cliche), executed an operational plan, to illegally bomb targets on Syrian territory, coordinated with factions in control positions of other illegal empire participants, aligned to their larger geopolitical prime objective, by a. sneaking up behind the Russian patrol aircraft to mitigate defensive fire against them, from the land-based defenses located on Syrian territory
2. defensive fire – outstanding verification of defensive fire from land-based Syrian systems has been presented by Russia to world media outlets
3. The French – called out – other illegal aggression reported, yet, as far as I know not independently verified, of French missile launches, at a similar timeline to the silencing of the communications from the Russian patrol plane reported lose from radar observability.
In this highly simplified description of the likely highly complex machinations of the mass murder event, it seems randomly tangential to assign blame to the movements of Iran within their lawful invitation of assistance from the lawfully representative government of the (supposed) lawfully sovereign country of Syria?!
or is that,
“Iran has brought these attacks upon Syria”
You do realise that Israel has been attacking Syria and the Syrians since the creation of Israel? You’ve just repeated Israel’s propaganda for attacking Syria.
Why does a dog lick its balls? Because it can. So much for the why.
What would be the downside if Russia seals off the Syrian airspace?
Right – Israel’s “god-given license to kill” would be impacted.
It astonishes me that a harsh reaction against future bombing raids needs much discussion. It does matter little how the IL-20 was shot down exactly. And little does it matter what was the intention and purpose of the bombing raid. These considerations are irrelevant in view of the war crimes committed against Syria. Would these crimes ever be persecuted (I bet they will), the heads along the chains of command would end on the chopping bloc.
Once the investigation revealed the dirty details, access to the Syrian airspace may be considered again based on these results.
One should not draw red lines if unable to enforce it. It is easy to play the armchair warrior game. In realty Russia is vulnerable military but mostly its economy, thus not in a position now to play tough.
Military, the Russian forces in Syria are unable to resist a massive Nato attack, after all we are talking about several bases and 30 something planes. In the Nord are the shifty Turks and in the south is Israel with NATO armada floating nearby. Can the s400 deal with hundreds of simultaneous launched cruise missiles ?
However, the AngloZionists do not need to risk a full blown war. The moment one of their plane is down or a ship attacked, they will invoke article 5 NATO and ask for total economic blockade against Russia. Lets remember that Nato GDP is 20 times more than Russia’s, all Russian financial operations are through Swift system controlled ny Nato, that Russian economy is dependent of oil and gas sales in exchange for imports of almost annything, to and from the West… ruble collapse, Russian bonds gone, stock market wiped out and so on…
An embargo Iran like would lead to collapse of Russian Economy. Than the 5th column will be activated and voila! a color revolution is done, bringing Russia to heel and achieving the ultimate goal.
It looks like this scenario has been tried several times but very skillfully avoided by Putin. Russia managed to achieve fantastic goals in Syria taking advantage of the Obama’s weakness, indecision and antipathy with Nuttyyahoo, however now with Bolton and Pompeo in the White House, one can expect much higher chance of conflict.
”However, the AngloZionists do not need to risk a full blown war. The moment one of their plane is down or a ship attacked, they will invoke article 5 NATO and ask for total economic blockade against Russia. Lets remember that Nato GDP is 20 times more than Russia’s, all Russian financial operations are through Swift system controlled ny Nato, that Russian economy is dependent of oil and gas sales in exchange for imports of almost anything, to and from the West… ruble collapse, Russian bonds gone, stock market wiped out and so on”
Let’s also remember that GDP is US is $20 trillion but that its sovereign debt is $21 trillion. Then add in private debt, corporate debt municipal debt, student debt, financial debt, unfunded future liabilities, medicare and social security, and the US is pretty much insolvent. When assessing the economic health of an economy it is good practice to look at both sides of the ledger.
Russia and the rest of the Eurasian bloc has all the resources it needs to withstand such a blockade, and this blockade will destroy many of the vassal economies in europe. Then of course there is China to take into consideration …. Don’t underestimate Russia’s position and overestimate the AZ
Good analysis but limited in scope which is OK since this whole situation bears micro as well as macro analysis. I might agree with you about the Fubar except that one nagging issue:
Why only the 1 minute warning to the Russians which was an unusual way for the Israelis to communicate with the Russians in terms of the deconfliction agreement? This has been mentioned several times in Russian military statements. They usually gave more warning.
Simple: the Israelis did not want to give the Russians time to communicate with the Syrians. It was: Quick do two things at once– reroute your plane which was a bit vulnerable already on a landing trajectory plus communicate with the Syrian missile battery crew which quite possibly was in the midst of a shift change and do all this in the diversionary fog of war provided by the French vessel in an area not before attacked. This is not a drill.
Doing the set up at 10PM on 9/18/18 does not take rocket science, rather, just good intelligence, cooperation of allies ( French) and some fearless fliers…and a little imagination. Yes, much could go wrong.
The big picture: There was already plan or at least the FUCKUS folk assured us of retaliation for the coming gas attack by Assad . So they had thought this out a bit ( after all it is the 3rd time around on this “Assad is gassing his own people” canard.) And who knows if this 9/18/18 diversion was already part of a bigger plan that could not be put into effect because the of presence in Idlib of a NATO ally Turkey?
If I were in the Russian military command, I would be training for simultaneous multi level attacks: all around electronic attack, drone swarms, ground infiltration as well as multi locational air diversion. Paranoid? yep, that’s me.
All this talk of denying airspace is all very well but doesn’t do much for cruise missiles launched outside said airspace. Why were the Israeli F-16s even near Latakia when they could launch 200 km Delilah cruise missiles from afar?
What if the French figate was the one launching the cruise missiles (it did launch something) and the Israeli jets were just the diversion and ones claiming the raid?
It was all a test of the Syrian defences in preparation of the big one.
Thanks Saker, for an interesting article.
Indeed we know too little facts to reach conclusions about the downing, but giving it some thoughts might help in the direction.
The thought was raised that the IAF had been screwed. I highly doubt this. The IAF is a professional and well-trained airforce, and such a high risk operation would have been planned carefully in advance. They were striking under the Russian radar of their base, in fact a no go area for the IAF.
Therefore I think that the presence of the IL20 was also not a coincidence. The IAF might quite well have planned the landing of the IL20 as a cover. Shift change, radar cover for some moments lower.
The greatest mystery to me are those missiles, fired from a French Navy vessel. What the hell were they shooting at?
Tempting analyses on the sites of FortRuss and Tom Luongo suggest, that it were actually the French that shot down the IL20.
Do we really think that the French have the nerve to shoot down a Russian military airplane, without any threat? Shooting it while closely surrounded by allied F16’s, taking cover? Somehow that does not make sense. (Sometimes I tease French friends by asking when the last time was that they won a war).
Could it be that the French Navy vessel was ‘Plan B’ for bombing that ammunition store, with the IAF planes as distraction?
I don’t think many details will pop up. It’s now damage control time, and waiting what the RF is going to do as response.
Beefing up the air defenses is not that easy. Putin must have good reasons for not selling S-300’s to Syria, thereby who is going to operate them?
But I agree that the only way to get the Israeli’s frightened, is by making clear that there is a good chance that they will be shot down. Maybe a 24/7 presence of Russian advanced jets can help (The IAF has 24/7 two nuclear armed jets in the air). Maybe another way of shift change of recon airplanes, landing after the next one is already in the air?
The Israeli’s are operating there mainly to prevent a stronghold of Hezbollah and Iran, which Israel considers as a threat. The thought may never cross their minds, that the real threat is Israel itself. When Israel stays in Israel and leaves Lebanon and Syria alone, two full members of the UN, then Hezbollah is not a threat. Hezbollah exists while Israel is a threat, that claims to have some divine ‘right’ to invade, plunder, bomb and shoot.
May the mighty USA have invading plans, I would advise them to recollect their military adventure in Lebanon in the eighties of the last century. Eventually they simply fled.
Btw, one last remark: The amount of articles and comments is large on this subject, my compliments to the mods who have guided this in good directions. You people must have done overtime, my thanks. Mod: Thanks Rob!
“The greatest mystery to me are those missiles, fired from a French Navy vessel. What the hell were they shooting at?”
I read somewhere (but no confirmation), that indeed the Israeli F16s had fired from close to the French vessel, to increase the confusion, and that the French actually wouldn’t have fired anything. This makes sense to me, as it fits quite well with the “psychology” of the Israeli attack. Using the French as the foolish servants of their plan… as they usually do.
(In military terms, I don’t know if this scenario is easy to dismiss or not).
“Do we know that they did it deliberately? No, we don’t. We really don’t.” Hmm, my view is that Israel has long since “p*ssed” away the right to expect to be awarded the benefit of the doubt. However, Western cabals are desperate for war in order to hide the egregrious theft of their citizens’ wealth, freedoms and futures by what I can only consider as rabid organised crime groups. I am quite sure that there is no need to detail who I am talking about.
I would surmise that the Russian High Command up to and including President of the Russian Federation VV Putin is very well aware of the stakes: Realising that these criminal Cabals will collapse under the weight of their own corruption if not aided by fortuitous conflict. To this end provocations will of course continue. I am outraged personally by those actions resulting in the loss of the IL20, and my sincere prayers go to the families. But to rush to war when that is precisely what the Western Cabals desire would be fundamentally stupid. It is also possible that Israel was part of a plan to create a confusing disaster permitting deniability…Well that failed. What goes around, comes around, yes?
A lot of comments on this incident, on how it happened and what Russia should do about it, which I don’t believe was an accident, just far too unlikely given the state of affairs and the timing(granted I’m not calling for bombing Israel or otherwise think the Russian President has betrayed his country or Syria).But there has been little to no comments on the purpose of the attack, it served no military objective as far as I know(the aircraft will probably be replaced) so the objective must have been a non-military one.
The propaganda/PR angle is one obvious objective, to make the Russian Federation and it’s President personally, look bad and put pressure on them.Another objective alongside the PR one, I assume, would have been to cause division among the Russian political class and also even among the military, with the difference of opinions/positions as to what should be done about this incident serving as the fault-lines, the fact Israelis are being diplomatic about this adds credence to this theory.If this is the case then I expect the Israelis will increasingly be diplomatic/nice towards the RF in public(to further enrage those who want a harsh response to what happened, on the Russian side), while FUKUS and Israeli intel agents will try to quietly and deceitfully recruit Russians dissatisfied with the current Russian administration(using claims like VVP is weak/a traitor working with the West/etc.) and use them against the RF.
It was reported from Syria that a strike took place on an amunition warehouse. That should be easy enough to confirm, the confusion may be who hit the warehouse, France or The Apartheid State?
Does anyone here knows if after a missile strike it is eventually possible to search and find let’s say ‘serial nrs’ or any detail which can confirm the ‘nationality’ of the missile owner?Or is it totally destroyed?Maybe easier for the missiles that missed their targets?
It is very strange that Macron who loves so much the big PR press conferences after a strike(like after the last one in april)did not even open his mouth.Not a single word from Paris,except a communique that the French Defense Min called Shoigu to ”propose” help to search the missing russian mil personnel.
And now the US wants to ”negociate” with their proxies ISIS and Al quaeda/Nusra etc…
US think tank foreign policy openly calls for peace with AlQaeda and ISIS. Since the US now wants to give AlQaeda a piece of syria (#idlib).