By Paul Schmutz Schaller for The Saker Blog
The world situation is changing very fast and one needs to make an effort in order to keep pace with the events. The end of a year is a welcome opportunity for an assessment of the current situation. I shall concentrate on two main subjects.
2019: The West has lost the supremacy in the Middle East
I think that this was the most important change in the year drawing to a close. Iran has successfully and creatively defended herself against the „maximal pressure“ from the USA and has kept her distance with the West European countries. Economically, the country has suffered from the US-sanctions, but she has now passed the biggest crisis. The country took the imposed problems as a motivation to improve the economical governance and to diminish the dependance from petrol. While in June, say, there was a more or less real danger of an aggressive war against Iran, now, this treat haas faded into the background. The report of UN-Secretary-General Guterres of Desember 10 saying that the UN, after an investigation in Saudi Arabia, cannot verify the US and Saudi claims that Iran was behind the strikes on Aramco in September, is a diplomatic victory for Iran. As for the Iranian trade, an official recently said that, during the last 9 months, China, Iraq, UAE, Afghanistan and Turkey were major destinations for the Iranian exports while Turkey, UAE and Germany are biggest Iranian trade in terms of imports.
Syria has made further important progress in the fight against terrorism, in particular in the province Idleb. Moreover, the government and the army were able to utilize the partial withdrawal of the US occupying army in the north-east of the country. The reconstruction in Syria moves forward, Russian and Chinese enterprises will thereby play an important role. Hundreds of thousands refugees have come back. In short, as President Assad said in the interview with Italian Rai News 24: „[… ] the situation is much, much better […] and I think that the future of Syria is promising; we are going to come out of this war stronger.“
In the absurd war of Saudi Arabia against Yemen, the strategic situation has completely changed. Saudi Arabia has lost the initiative and different Arabian and African countries have stopped the support for the Saudi army. The Ansarallah movement of the Houthis has made important attacks, in particular against Aramco, and the movement has now strong official relations with Iran.
The West and Israel are still trying hard to exploit the economical and political crisis in Lebanon and Iraq. However, the patriotic forces in both countries were able to keep a positive outlook of the situation and could avoid to fall into the traps.
There is no reason to think that the positive development in the Middle East will change in the next months. Quite the contrary. One can expect that the fight in Afghanistan against terrorism and US occupation will make important progress. Moreover, the influence of China and Russia will further increase. However, the general situation will remain tense. This is of course due to the fact that there is a country like Israel in this region which is utterly hostile against the neighboring countries and tyrannizes the indigenous population.
Asia a a whole has already widely casted off the yoke of Western hegemonism. As of South America, the developments in 2019 show – despite of the coup in Bolivia – a movement to more independence which very probably will continue. I would assume that this vague will also grow in Africa, in particular in Western and central Africa, due to the fight against terrorism and the beneficial influence of China and Russia.
2020: The fight between the American national imperialism and Western hegemony will come to a decision
Trump has won in 2016, based on his program of „America first“. Since then, it has become more and more clear that this program is in fact a program of an American national imperialism. Trump is not interested in a „Western“ perspective. A typical example are the US sanctions against numerous countries, even against traditional allies. This is a crucial change. Since the end of World War 2, the USA were constructed as a worldwide leading power. During the cold war, this has developed into the collective Western hegemony – including countries like Japan, Australia and others – with the USA as the undisputed leader. The emergence of an American national imperialism is a somewhat unexpected challenge for all other Western countries. Nevertheless, it is a logical evolution, provoked among other things by the declining power of Western hegemony and the appearance of China, the new Russia, as well as their strategic collaboration.
The traditional Western hegemonic forces have never accepted the election of Trump in 2016. They are very strong inside the US Democratic Party and in the US parliament in general, but also in Western Europe. With the impeachment and the US election in 2020, the fight between the both tendencies will reach a decision. One should expect that this fight will be very hard. The only logical outcome will be a victory of Trump; however, it is still to be seen whether this will be a clear victory or not. In other words, will the Western hegemonic forces be obliged to accept it this time? I think that these questions will be very crucial in 2020.
Also for Western Europe, the influence of this fight will be immense. Concerning this matter, the UK is the most advanced country in Western Europe. After a struggle of 3 and half years, the population has given a clear mandate to the Johnson government to deliver Brexit. It is probable that now, where this central question is resolved, the development in the UK will be quite dynamical. The formation of a national imperialism will advance quickly. France also is rather well prepared for a victory of the American national imperialism; with the period of de Gaulle in the 1960s, she has a historical model.
On the other hand, I believe that Germany is the less prepared country. Germany is very anti-Trump. In 2016, polls in Germany indicated that up to 90% would vote for Hillary Clinton and only 4% for Donald Trump. The polls during the last years have clearly confirmed this rejection of Trump in the German population. Also, German Chancellor Merkel has been widely seen as a stronghold of the traditional Western hegemony and against American national imperialism. However, the situation is changing. Merkel has lost her authority and is now rather isolated. The awareness is growing that Trump does not stand for a parenthesis in history, but for a fundamental change. The impeachment is not judged as positive as one could await. Moreover, the German industry would like to have better relations with Russia. The US sanctions against Nord Stream 2 will only reinforce the will in Germany to become more autonomous.
There is still another problem. While national imperialism has a long tradition in the UK and in France and will probably be accepted without too much of resistance, in Germany, national imperialism is not popular, for historical reasons. Therefore, one may predict that Germany will have a big debate on her political identity; even a profound crisis is possible. This is certainly complicated by the fact that Merkel has to be replaced and that there is – actually – no convincing successor. I am however quite confident that Germany will be able to find a way for playing a quite positive role in the future world.
We therefore may anticipate that Western hegemony is replaced by national imperialisms. Of course, they will remain a big problem for the world, even if the classical Western hegemony will suffer an important defeat. But the contradictions of other Western countries with the USA will strongly expand. This gives the remaining world much better perspectives.
From my point of view, 2019 was a very positive year and I am convinced that the same will be the case for 2020.
Lets not get overly lost about the years, we are about to end another decade, and as far as my life is concerned not much has changed. I do expect the next decade to reveal some interesting facts though, not that being the bearer of bad news is a welcome outcome, but if things have to get worse before they get better, this next decade should at least get the ball rolling. I can see the wicked getting older (and actually dying), the young getting sicker, and the rich getting poorer, all in the next decade.
“While national imperialism has a long tradition in the UK and in France and will probably be accepted without too much of resistance, in Germany, national imperialism is not popular, for historical reasons. Therefore, one may predict that Germany will have a big debate on her political identity; even a profound crisis is possible. This is certainly complicated by the fact that Merkel has to be replaced and that there is – actually – no convincing successor. I am however quite confident that Germany will be able to find a way for playing a quite positive role in the future world.”
Germany will play a positive role in the world alright … towards global war, that is.
Germany has been pushing its own imperialist ambitions quite openly, whether that be unilaterally, in the context of NATO, or in the European Union (and a possible “European”, i.e. German-French, military force).
To advance these imperial ambitions, Germany has embarked on a project of rearmament.
Germany’s budget for 2020: Billions for rearmament and war
Indeed, Germany currently has its colonial occupation troops in Syria, as part the Big Lie that it is “fighting” terrorism there–even though, like America, Britain, France, and other “democracies,” it has backed and supported the moderate jihadists and terrorist groups that have been ravaging Syria for the past several years.
A few months ago, Germany was even calling for a European colonial force (of around 30-40,000 troops) to occupy northern Syria.
Germany, US threaten war amid Russia-Turkey summit on Syria
Hell, after nearly 20 years, Germany still has its colonial occupation troops in Afghanistan–right along with the Americans–as part of the Orwellian pretext that they are protecting “human rights and the rule of law.”
Germany’s Afghanistan military mission: What comes next?
In addition, Germany has been at the forefront of the militarization of the North Sea and Baltic Sea, as part of NATO’s confrontation against Russia.
The Militarization of the North Sea
Germany has also been pushing the European Union’s very own version of RussiaGate by claiming that Russia would interfere in the EU election campaign or European politics–as way to both vilify Russia and also smear domestic dissent as being Russian assets of some sort.
Foreign and Domestic Enemies
And Germany is now preparing to ratchet up confrontation against China by using pretexts like Uighur human rights, as well as NATO’s Pivot to Asia.
No Peaceful Coexistence
Rearmament despite Dissentions
In short, a new German Wehrmacht is being spawned, but this time with a “democratic” mask….
“one may predict that Germany will have a big debate on her political identity”
In due course, Germany will break up. The north of Germany and the south of Germany are almost two different cultures. The north is Socialist and the south is not. Almost all progress is in the the south, but the north controls the politics. As for East Germany, I have no idea what will become of it.
The break up of Germany is a fundamentally flawed prognosis. Seriously, we are so far away from that. Our societal and political landscape might be fragmented, diverse and radicalized but it is nowhere near a sharp divisive line anymore, not even with the former GDR.
The Bundesländer and the Federal Republic are deeply integrated institutions nobody disputes. With metropolitan area around Frankfurt am Main, unified Berlin and the hanseatic cities the innovative areas are spread all over the country and not just around Munich or Stuttgart as asserted.
The infight intensifies, even more after Merkel will be out of office and maybe the nationalists around the AFD become a force, nobody can afford to ignore or shout at anymore. It’s basically the same movement that gathers behind Trump. Right now around 20% in ratings, already forcing nearby parties to adjust policies to not lose too much support to the Alt right.
I hope I could convince you, that there is no threat of disintegration in Germany. Greetings to Cairns. I hope I can visit it sometime.
”2020: The fight between the American national imperialism and Western hegemony will come to a decision”
This is where the resilience of Russia and China will be absolutely crucial. The only chance the parasitic West has — no matter what formations, alliances, and politicos at its disposal — of another lease of life is destruction and plundering of Russia (stopped by Putin exactly 20 years ago) plus a successful military assault on China, whose sovereignty was hanging in the balance in 1989.
If Russia and China prevail, the West has no chance of maintaining its standards of living. Judging by the Open Border regime, it seems as if the West’s social prop, the middle classes and the labour aristocracy, are going to get ditched. This will rile them up for war against their own kith and kin in other parts of the West as well as bashing of immigrants.
Very astute observations about Germany. Very wise for the author to refrain from drawing simplistic Russia v.s. Ukraine analog over China’s Inevitable and increasingly more ominous clash with the rest of East Asia, including ethnically Chinese HK and Taiwan, And/or romantically placing China’s global ambitions in the same undistinguished basket as Russia’s. 1990s were a black curse for Russian civilization. The long term harm to the spirit and soul and body almost matched the devastation of the 1919-1920 civil war and early Red Terror. 1990s were also a back curse emotionally and psychologically for Americans or Frenchmen or Brits whose hearts and identities were tied to the old USA, old France, old UK of the 1950s and early 1960s. But 1990s was the golden decade for China, during which its global ascendancy was cemented and assured. Another country won out in the 1990s. This was Germany. There was a retelling of the German story. The heroic East German people smashed the Backward Soviet Russia yoke and embraced freedom and returned to the civilized and now politically correct master race. Soviet Russia just as bad as Nazis maybe much worse. So on and so on. All these nonsense suited the neoliberal bureaucrats and “globalist intellectuals” of the new Germany. Berlin becomes the new playground for the sons and daughters of the hip US Democratic Party elites and they buy apartments right and left all over the hip areas together with all the gays and piercing artists of Europe. Berlin has a strong stake in the continuing triumph of Hegemonic globalist West. As does large swarths of political and business elite of China, in spite of them temporarily cowering under their present leader, who by some curious Shakespearean accident happens to have a strongly, personally pro- Russian bent.
This article confuses me because it is trying to contrast hegemony and imperialism.
Imperialism=the policy of extending the rule or authority of an empire or nation over foreign countries, or of acquiring and holding colonies and dependencies.
Hegemony=leadership or predominant influence exercised by one nation over others, as in a confederation.
(especially among smaller nations) aggression or expansionism by large nations in an effort to achieve world domination
The two terms invariably mean the same thing with the same result.
After seeing Hillary Clinton at work for years, what she did in Libya and what she planned if elected to bring the world to war, I’m shocked Germans almost unanimously would have voted for her. At least Trump’s rhetoric was for a new era of peace and cooperation.
The empire has numerous tools to try before resorting to direct military conflict. It worked so far in Bolivia but not in Venezuela. And South American countries which they have upset over and over keep bouncing back to a more social type of government. The empire will remain on it’s mission to conquer the world and will do so until the powers who control their money decide to pull the plug. When that happens run for cover. Over the years America has been turning toward a police state. This will become a nation of internal turmoil. Hopefully, they won’t use this as an excuse to try and blow up the world.
I think Chalmers Johnson stated it best in his last book of the series he wrote Nemesis “The Last Days of the Empire”. Everyone should read that series if no other.
He warned the nation can be one or the other,a democracy or an imperialist but they can’t be both.if it sticks to imperialism,it will like the old Rome Republic on which so much our system was modeled,lose its democracy to a domestic dictatorship.
So when they talk of national imperialism it brings you to democracy vs imperialism ,or an imperialist dictatorship which we have been drifting to for a lot of years, as congress is more than happy to let the president issue the orders,which of course is where the term of “a do nothing congress” comes from, so one should be very careful of what the wish for because more often then not they come true.!!!
The only beef I have is just what is the mechanism that is going to so called “pull the plug”? The plug could have been pulled in 08, but even now we are monetizing more debt than during the height of the 08 crisis, and no one so much as gets on their knees to complain of the monetary inflation.
The congress critters were in a panic about voting to save the economy, the price of gold shot up, Obama crowed about a nasty recession we just pulled out of. Now there is nothing except crickets and benjamins stacked to the moon.
The aren’t going to pull the plug Greenspan said back in the 80’s under Reagan that they would do anything to prevent the market from failing,now I see they are going to dump $500 billion into the REPO market and more if they need it, To them good times are here lets party, and the Feds will keep the benjamins flowing,the rich will get richer and the poor better move over for a whole new crop is coming,most states are no better off then the feds,my state N.Y. has a $6.6 billion dollar deficit and other states aren’t any better off but there’s always a few billion to hand out to the business sector.
Now I see Trumps on his knees crying “about all those poor souls in Libya” that’s after he found that Russia and some other countries had sent troops there to clean up the mess we created”,so you can bet that like in Syria we will just go barging in where we are not wanted,probably after the oil producing area’s the same as we are stealing from Syria.This has a long long way to go yet, there’s still some meat on the bones to make a profit off from so I would’nt expect any change until those bones are picked clean and then maybe another war or two will push it off down the road aways..!!!
Well stated it’s what I believe as well.
Nicely argued. I think the need to get the Americans, of all ideologies, out of Afghanistan is really important. And Syria.
..God bless the world’s people..
This is how I see it. 2019 in
Iran got badly shaken but is still holding it together. It’s a valiant effort but not sure how much more of maximum pressure can it withstand. I hope it will but if things continue Iran will find time as its enemy.
Syria clearly positive and the biggest bonus is that hegemon clearly lost interest in it and will in due time leave the whole of the country. Time is on Syria side.
Yemen. The Huthies are the biggest winner of this year. They will not be defeated and no one can be delusional in that manner any more.
South America :
Venezuela survived, similar to Iran time is not its aly and is almost beyond repair as people continue to flee the country. The hegemon devastated it and it needs releaf soon.
Bolivia didn’t survive this year against the imperial will. This is important for everyone so not to be too relaxed about the hegemon. It is still very very capable and nothing short of the will and action of Syria Iran and Venezuela can stop him. Bolivia wasn’t fight ready and got took surprisingly fast.
Colombia is a clearly quasi state propped up by the empire to be its enforcer in the region which it fails to to in any effect. Colombia is the discount version of Chile which is running on short time. Hegemon needs to save Chilean regime if it wants to stay relevant in SA. It will fail.
China is truly untouchable and the best the empire can do is sanction and slander it but no one really buys this anymore.
Japan to me is the sick man in Asia. The hegemon crippled it in the eighties and it’s a shadow of its potential self. Only sovereignty can save the Japanese from irrelevance.
India is treading slowly but surely to sovereignty while dealing with all sides. This is wise and necessary still in the current global situation.
Pakistan is still the wests lapdog and this is a shame. Hopefully they recognise its lies and starts working in its own self interest. This will hardly happen and we’re witnessing its slide to irrelevance and Vietnam and Indonesia are shaping up to be more important players on the global playground.
Philippines. Duterte lost his steem and his successer will most likely jump back into the US fold.
The amputated dead horse that only looks great to the handful of fly by night statlets in the east of the continent (Montenegro North Macedonia, baltics) while the big dogs of the Union are already looking for way out.
The hegemon is the strongest here, mostly through anti Serb propaganda that fly by night neighbouring statlets hold as their most treasured “national identity “. As long as Serbia isn’t completely back brocken and in Nato the hate in the neighbouring countries will be welcoming ground for continuous hegemonic machinations. The hegemon can here still readily find more than willing puppets to to its bidding. Same like in Poland and Ukraine and the Baltics. They act not out of conviction but pure hate of the other side.
Its praying for real conflict oblivious of the impact it would have on it. This shows that it has nothing to lose and that is the saddest thing possible. It’s the equivalent of a drunk broke toothless guy that’s pissed at someone for reasons he cannot elaborate.
Sorry for the long post.
here is what the world dominating devils are really up to.