Who is the strongest?
Who is the best?
Who holds the aces
The East Or the West?
This is the crap our children are learning!
Roger Waters (1987)
I noticed that my remarks about the silly PR stunt with a US CVN in the Med elicited some reactions in the comments section. And it is true, that both sides, Russia and the “collective West”, are declaring themselves as militarily stronger, so all I offer to do today is a quick recap of a few basic facts. Let’s take the full spectrum of possible wars and check out the correlation of forces on each level. We also need to revisit each time what “victory” or “defeat” could mean in each case.
LDNR vs Banderastan
Here we are assuming a “clean” Ukie vs LDNR conflict (no external actors) which, by itself, is completely artificial. The West backs the Ukies and Russia backs the LDNR. Still, we can say a few things about such a possible conflict. The Ukies have higher numbers and they would have the initiative, at least initially, since they would be the attacking side. Not only that, but the Ukies can play a very exhausting game against the LDNR: *almost* launch a full-scale attack and then pull back. Over and over again. This would place a huge strain on the LDNR defenders (for those interested in the topic of the advantages yielded by such a tactic should read Richard Bett’s excellent book Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning written in distant 1982 but still full of useful lessons). From the LDNR’s side, the best option here is to combine strong intelligence capabilities with an echeloned defense in-depth, possibly including three echelons all designed to “snap around” any penetrating force. Well-prepared defenses can also entice/channel an attacking force into a “fire cauldron”. But let’s be realistic here, the LDNR knows that Russia will never allow the Ukie force to break through the LDNR defenses, so “all” the LDNR forces need to do, is to hold their defenses long enough for the Russians to decide to strike. That means minutes, possibly hours, but not days, let alone weeks.
Considering the truly immense difference in morale and training, my personal guess is that the Ukies won’t be able to break through the LDNR defenses before being hammered by Russian standoff weapons. There is even a real possibility that the LDNR forces might repeal the Ukronazis without any real Russian intervention.
However, while to force the Russians to intervene would be a military defeat for the Ukies, but it would be a political triumph for the collective West which has created the entire Banderastan with the sole purpose of making it “Russia’s Afghanistan” or “Russia’s Vietnam” or whatever other silly metaphor the western “specialists” love to come up with. Which begs the question: what is the point of “winning” militarily when you lose politically? Is war not still the continuation of politics by other means?
In any case, the “pure” LDNR vs Banderastan scenario is really meaningless. We need to go one step up in the horror scale.
Banderastan vs LDNR+Russia
Here, again, the Ukies would have the advantage of surprise, at least in theory. My personal bet is that the Russian intelligence services would know about any such move even before the Ukie commanders. Other than that, the case of Banderastan vs LDNR+Russia is not all that different from the “pure” LDNR vs Banderastan scenario, with the crucial difference that if the Ukies force Russia to intervene the Russians will need a couple of days max (instead of hours) to not necessarily destroy all the Ukie units or forces, but to turn the Ukrainian military into a completely disorganized force incapable of actual military operations (I refer to this as “defanging”). To achieve this goal the Russians would not have to move a single soldier across the border, their standoff weapons and EW/A2/AD capabilities would be more than sufficient to achieve this result.
But here, again, we would see a Russian military triumph turn into a political triumph for the West. What would be the point for Russia?
There is also another danger here: Russian over-reach. I strongly believe that the Nazi-occupied Ukraine is the equivalent of a limb infected with gangrene: this limb presents a major threat to the rest of the body and needs to be cut off and the part of the body it used to be attached to needs to be thoroughly disinfected. As for the limb itself, it can die from its own toxins, who cares? Here I am not referring to the LDNR (although things are not all idyllic there either!), but to the parts of the Ukraine which both the LDNR and the Russians might be most tempted to liberate from the Nazis, including Mariupol and the rest of the Ukie coast, and also including most of the currently Nazi-occupied territory East of the Dniepr river. To liberate it would be a no-brainer, at least in military terms, but then Russia would “own” this territory and, therefore, be responsible not only for maintaining law and order but also for the reconstruction of this large and basically deindustrialized piece of land. This is a cost Russia has no moral obligation to shoulder (and no means to do so anyway).
Furthermore, it would be wrong to think that the entire population of these territories would welcome the Russians with flowers (like they welcomed the Nazis in WWII in the western Ukraine), there are a lot of real Ukronazis living there too. Furthermore, there are plenty of folks in the eastern Ukraine who would want a Russian pension in Rubles but who don’t give a damn about Russia and her civilizational values. I think of them as “civilizational parasites”.
But if Putin gives the order to stop more or less at the current line of contact, all the “armchair generals” would immediately blame him for not liberating the rest of the Ukraine!
Remember that the current narrative of western PSYOPs is not that Putin is too patriotic, it is that he is not patriotic enough (that is the same crowd who blames Putin for “allowing Israel to bomb Syria” by the way). So, let’s say that the Ukies attack, the LDNR defenses hold, Russia de-fangs the Ukie military with standoff weapons, and the LDNR forces, backed by Russia, push the line of contact somewhat to the West, but not too much, certainly far short of liberating a big chunk of the Ukraine. Here is what the US PSYOPs will do in that case: they will push all of the following narratives in parallel:
- The limited Russian intervention proves that Russia is dangerous and aggressive, so the entire freedom-loving continent should unite against Russia lest Putin pushes his tanks to Portugal or even invade Mexico! Only the show unity and force of the US and its NATO “allies” stopped the Russian bear from going any further!
- Putin is a weak leader, a puppet of the Bilderbergers and the CFR, he is all bluff and all that Russian propaganda about Russia holding all the military cards is an empty bluff too. Proof? Well, if the Russian military was that strong, it would not have stopped so far in the East. QED.
- The Ukie military, thanks to NATO kit and training, was sufficient to stop the Russians. Just like the Georgian military “stopped the Russians” (13km from Tbilissi!) in 08.08.08. The Russian military is a paper tiger, we are the best, we won, HURRAY!!! We can “woke away” in peace.
This kind of nonsense has been posted all over the Internet for years already, and if the Russians do not at least reach the Dniepr river, this will be the “proof” to those folks that they were right all along.
[Sidebar: By the way, this is EXACTLY what Israel is doing in Syria. Bombing poorly defended and irrelevant locations on a regular basis thereby “proving” that:
- Israel remains “invincible”
- Proving that Russian air defenses suck against superior Israeli technology
- Alternatively, proving that Putin is a tool or, at least, ally of the Israelis
The fact that all these Israeli strikes have made exactly ZERO military difference on the ground where both Russia and Iran are holding all the cards is conveniently obfuscated by that kind of nonsense. What is really happening is this: Russian (owned and manned) air defenses in Syria only have as a mission to protect Russian forces in/near Khmeimim and Tartus (no, Russia NEVER had the objective of protecting all of Syria from IDF attacks – why should Russia fight somebody else’s war?). Other than that, the Russians did sell a number of air defenses to the Syrians (who now own and man them) and they are quite effective at protecting militarily important objectives in Syria, that is precisely why the Israelis are only bombing clothing storage containers, border posts and empty buildings. Such easy to strike objectives need not be important, as long as there is a loud BOOM followed by a big fire and the Israelis get to declare victory. The questions which, apparently, nobody asks are these:
- if the Israeli strikes are so effective, why does nothing change militarily in Syria?
- if the Syrians decided to retaliate and fire their (few) ballistic missiles into Israel, what would Israel do and could the Syrian air defenses deal with a truly fullscale Israeli bomb and missile attack (the correct answer is: no).
- what would the Russians gain if they began shooting down Israeli aircraft in or even outside Syrian airspace?
The truth is that for the Israelis looking victorious is much much more important than defeating the Syrians. Again, the APPEARANCE of victory matters much more to the (terminally narcissistic) Israelis than actually defeating the Syrians or anybody else (including Iran or Hezbollah) for that matter. The exact same goes for the entire West]
Let’s keep in this mind when we look at the next level:
NATO vs Russia
While this option is discussed ad nauseam these days, it is a fiction. The truth of the matter is simple: NATO does not have the means to attack Russia and neither does Russia have the means to attack NATO. Yes, both sides have standoff weapons that they could use against each other, but standoff weapons alone do not win wars. And the truth is that NATO is not anywhere near the kind of force levels needed to project these forces into the Ukrainian theater of military operations. It would take NATO many months, if not years, to achieve such a capability (remember how long “Desert Shield” took?).
As for the Russians, yes, they do have a powerful armored “fist” near (100km-400km) the Ukrainian border, but its size clearly indicates its real function: to prevent a Ukie breakthrough and occupation of the LDNR, not to prepare for an invasion of the entire Ukraine or, even less so, of the EU. Most of the Russian forces are located further away from the Ukrainian border simply because they are not needed there. Duh!
Some idiots have recently suggested that the US+NATO could deploy landing ships in the Black Sea and attempt a landing to open a second “jarhead front” against Russia. Other not less stupid people have suggested that the US+NATO could move its “mobile forces” to assist the Ukies. What they never ask is a) what is the actual size of US+NATO “mobile forces” (whatever that means) b) what is the firepower of such a force and 3) what is the tactical mobility of such forces, especially when faced with a combined arms army. As for the Black Sea, it is in military terms, a Russian lake as Russia has the means to sink any ship anywhere on the Black Sea in minutes. And the bigger the target, the easier its destruction.
Finally, NATO and the EU are much more preoccupied with having either women and/or trannies running their forces than thinking about actual, real, warfare.
The EU/NATO are nothing but a quite ridiculously dysfunctional freak circus, not a military threat.
So let’s go one level up:
US vs Russia (conventional)
Do I really need to say it? The folks who lost every single war they fought since WWII and who cannot even defeat vastly inferior forces in a massive operation lasting for DECADES with total air supremacy will take on Russia?
Okay, the US military has one major advantage over the Russians: numbers. While Russian military hardware is often much more modern and capable than the old stuff used by the US, the US can produce its old stuff in much higher numbers, while also modernizing them, which can be quite cost-effective. A modern F-15 is very different from the original F-15s, and the same goes for many US weapons systems. True! But consider this: did the most up-to-date F-15s (or any other modernized US weapons system) make ANY difference at all in, say, Afghanistan or Iraq? None of course. Why? Because only boots on the ground can truly win a war.
Furthermore, the Russians are on a truly crazy building spree, they produce increasing numbers of advanced warfare systems which, over time, will negate the current numerical US advantage, especially considering that the US is also busy threatening war against both Iran and even China! If, as the Chinese have now officially declared, Russia and China are “more than allies”, then even in raw numbers the US is already hopelessly outgunned.
For the time being, if the US-Russian war remains conventional, Russia has the qualitative advantage over the US in most, if not all, crucial weapons systems. She also has “boots on the ground” which can fight hard won battles (something neither the USA, not Israel nor the KSA have, hence all their defeats by technologically much inferior enemies).
What about all the US “allies” then? They are useful politically, to present unilateral US imperialism as something endorsed by most of the planet (by that they mean most governments, not most people!). But in military terms, they are at best irrelevant and mostly a nuisance, a factor weakening the USA (I explained it all here and here, and won’t repost it all now).
What about the “lethal weapons” delivered by the West to the Nazi forces? They would be formidable if the idea was to refight WWII but on a small scale. For modern warfare, they are, at best, a small sideshow, even the overhyped Turkish Bayraktars which are actually rather mediocre drones by modern standards. That is also all PR.
So what about going nuclear?
USA vs Russia (nuclear)
First, “nuclear war” can mean anything, from a single nuclear mine or artillery shell to an ICBM. In terms of tactical nukes, Russia has more of them and is much better prepared to fight a battle involving tactical nukes. Also, the US heavily depends on the USN to have the numbers of cruise missiles needed for a major war, but at least the entire USN surface fleet has now been rendered obsolete by Russian hypersonic missiles (see below). So what Uncle Shmuel is left with are SSNs with high subsonic cruise missiles, not much of a challenge for Russian air defenses (again, see below). It will take years to retrofit current US SSNs with hypersonic weapons (once the latter reaches IOC, to begin with).
But the real point is this: the USA has no useful air defenses (especially with the USN “out”), never mind anti-ballistic missile defenses. Why? Because they never needed them in the first place! That is the big advantage of attacking weak or even defenseless countries, they can’t do anything to either stop you or punish you. In sharp contrast, Russia has the most heavily fortified airspace on the planet, and it is only getting better and better prepared (even to deal with space and hypersonic weapons, see below).
There are two ways of deterring an enemy: denial and punishment. The first means preventing the other side from successfully striking you while the second means inflicting such retaliation upon the other side that even a successful attack would come at an unacceptable cost.
Right now, if both sides launched all their nuclear forces, they can destroy each other and neither side can prevent that outcome. Both sides understand that. So punishment is hardly an attractive option.
However, ever since Ronald Reagan, the USA wanted to have some kind of “shield” which would protect the USA (and NATO?) from a Russian counter-nuclear strike (while giving the US a chance to strike first and disarm and decapitate the Soviets). And, typically, while the AngloZionists made a lot of very cool and nonsensical PR (“it is to defend the EU from Iran!!!”) while bringing in immense contracts to produce nothing useful while filling the pockets of the most corrupt MIC on the planet, the Russians actually deployed such a type of system.
First around Moscow only, but gradually in other locations. Please read this to figure out what the Russians are doing now (especially since the US has reneged on almost all disarmament treaties out there). Here is the bottom line: once enough S-400s are deployed along the Russian periphery and once they are fully integrated into a unified air defense space ranging from MANPADs to the newest S-500/S-550 Russia will have an effective ABM shield.
Right now, the Russians simply don’t have the numbers of missiles to stop a full-scale US ICBM+SLBM+ALCM+SLCM attack, but they already have what it would take a more limited one (keep in mind that a fully successful US ICBM+SLBM+ALCM+SLCM, even if it would decapitate the entire Russian leadership, would only result in the USA disappearing from the surface of our planet (please read this and this if you require clarifications). Hardly the definition of “victory”, even for narcissistic AngloZionists :-)
As for Russia, why would she ever even consider using nukes against the USA?
The Empire is already dead, and so is the USA. Russia does not need to risk collective suicide to strike at a dead corpse, no matter how big its residual inertia can be.
Addendum: What about all the hypersonic weapons being deployed right now?
What about them? Russia has deployed a family of fully operational hypersonic weapons, from short/medium-range tactical ballistic missiles to long-range ASuW missiles to intercontinental missiles with maneuverable glide vehicles.
Compare that with the US which can’t even achieve IOC for an intermediate-range hypersonic missile, never mind an intercontinental one (the difference in speed is massive)!
Russia also now has several air/space defense systems, including mobile ones, which already have both limited anti-satellite and anti-hypersonic missile capabilities. Not just one, several. And these are already deployed. And they are being improved by the day (see the recent Russian ASAT test).
The EU has nothing worth even discussing, so let’s look at China instead.
The Chinese are even further behind hypersonic weapons research than the USA: they do have a glide vehicle in testing, but these just don’t have anywhere near the maneuverability/accuracy needed to be effective (yet!). But when you look at the immense progress China has made over the years, I would not discount them, especially in their capability to deploy an effective intermediate-range hypersonic missile system.
Finally, keep in mind that Russia cannot allow the US to defeat China under any circumstances, as if China is defeated, the aggregate power of the USA+EU+US colonies in Asia would dwarf the Russian weapons systems (or good and services) production capabilities.
The Chinese have now contacted the Russians to help them build their own ABM system. That clearly shows that China has no illusions about the USA and that they are also preparing for war. Last, but certainly not least, the Chinese MIC is not nearly as corrupt as the US one, and that is why they don’t deploy such crap as the F-35 or the Zumwalt. It will take the Chinese to catch up, but my bet is that they will do that much sooner than expected.
First, for all the PR manufactured by paid and unpaid western propagandists, Russia does hold all the military cards.
The Russian problems are not military, they are political: how to defang the US+NATO without having to openly intervene in the Ukraine? How to regime-change the Nazis in Kiev without an open intervention? How to counter the truly formidable AngloZionist propaganda machine which has, at least so far, very effectively concealed from its consumers the very real military danger the collective West and its delusions are running into at full speed? How to counter the (very dangerous) propaganda of those supposed “patriots” who dream about a Russian liberation of (most of) the Ukraine?
There are those who want to keep it all simple, stupid. Alas, the reality is much more complex and the kind of idiocy uninformed civilians take seriously has no relation at all to the real world military decision-makers have to live in every day.
So the bottom line is this: Uncle Shmuel needs a face-saving “out” which his own ideology and propaganda deny him. The Europeans are too brainwashed to understand even the basic elements of what is at stake, while Russia is desperate not to use military force, but she might well be given no other choice: the Russians have now literally retreated behind their own national border. If somebody, anybody, or any combination of anybodies, crosses the “red line” known as the “Russian border”, it will be war. Then, of course, it will all become very clear very quickly, but by then it will be too late: war will be upon us.
Our Creator is a merciful God, and maybe there are still enough sober-minded specialists in the USA who will do what it takes to prevent that outcome? I sure hope so and maybe, just maybe, a miracle will happen in January. But what keeps me awake at night is the horrible realization that for millions of terminally brainwashed ignoramuses, there seem to be only very few sober-minded people left in the US ruling elites. Judging by the output of the AngloZionist propaganda the big corporate money in the USA is fully behind the Woke agenda and cares very little about war in Europe. And, after all, why would a civilization which is already actively committing cultural, psychological, sociological, biological, and even civilizational suicide care about a possible nuclear suicide?
The West claims it is ready to fight, but has nothing left to fight for.
How do you deter a death cult (which is all what the real “modern western values” are in reality)?
Will Putin and Xi, aided by Khamenei and others, pull off such a miraculous feat?
Could they, even theoretically?
I honestly don’t know.
So all I am left with is the hope for God’s mercy and a miracle. Miracles do happen. I have seen several in my own life. But they don’t happen that often. And this also begs the question of whether we, as a species, even deserve such a miracle? We know that the world will end, the Antichrist will come, and he will be defeated by Christ’s 2nd Coming. Christianity believes that while this outcome is not in doubt, it is inevitable, it can be delayed by our prayers and actions. In other words, while Armageddon is inevitable, we can, and must, try to do everything in our power to delay it.
I think that many have tried.
Will that be enough this time around?
Will there be enough righteous souls counted by God to save our planet?
Again, I don’t know.
I will end this with the troparion of the great prophet and saint who once pleaded for God’s mercy on His sinful creatures, our righteous forefather Abraham:
In the night of universal ignorance towards God, and in the starless, profound gloom bereft of heavenly light, thou, O Abraham, wast kindled in the firmament, burning with bright far-shining faith in the Everlasting Light, Who shone forth to us from thy seed. Do thou entreat Him with fervour, that He enlighten us and save our souls.
If Allah were to punish people immediately for their wrongdoing, He would not have left a single living being on earth. But He delays them for an appointed term. And when their time arrives, they cannot delay it for a moment, nor could they advance it [Quran 16:61].
My dear Saker, no one can delay such a monumental event. The appointed place and time has been written in history. The ending of this blog post is the best take home message in my opinion.
Verily we belong to god and verily to him do we return.
no one can delay such a monumental event. The appointed place and time has been written in history.
That is a point of view Christianity does not share.
Our God’s Mercy must not be denied and so I also believe that prayer, love and personal sacrifice can divert or delay His Justice.
Sufficient faith can indeed call forth miracles, sadly we live in a world of very, very little faith. Either way our Trust must be in Him.
“That is a point of view Christianity does not share.”
Neither does Islam.
Otherwise Prophet Yunus (AS) will still be inside the entrails of a whale, and Prophet Yahya (AS) would not have been born, if Allah wouldn’t have responded to Prophet Zechariah’s prayers.
Quran 21:87 “…And [mention] the man of the fish, when he went off in anger and thought that We would not decree [anything] upon him. And he called out within the darknesses, “There is no deity except You; exalted are You. Indeed, I have been of the wrongdoers.”
Quran 21:88 So We responded to him and saved him from the distress. And thus do We save the believers.
Quran 21:89 And [mention] Zechariah, when he called to his Lord, “My Lord, do not leave me alone [with no heir], while you are the best of inheritors.”
Quran 21:90 So We responded to him, and We gave to him John, and amended for him his wife. Indeed, they used to hasten to good deeds and supplicate Us in hope and fear, and they were to Us humbly submissive.
Determinism in fate and destiny is anathema to any religion, otherwise, what would prayer be for?
Excellent quote. Determinism indeed is much misunderstood.
“And God knows what is behind you and what is before”
This passage is widely misinterpreted by misguided people as the deterministic passage. Actual scholars point out that the use of the word ‘knows’ versus ‘decrees’ mean the Infinite being will ‘know’ all the possibilities ’before’ you. You make the choices, but where the choices lead is ‘known’.
I don’t know whether you are a Muslim or not. However, you have quoted the correct verses of the Holy Quran without any embellishment. Thank you.
Though In the Holy Book, everything is recorded in the Luh-e-Mahfooz, there are enough anecdotes in the authentic Hadith, that the actions of a person in doing right changes the end result in a positive way.
Therefore, your last sentence is credible in that prayers and action together changes the end result.
Andrei; You refer these days to your Christian faith as having relevance to your political and military analysis. This I deeply respect as I see it enriching the quality of your analysis in many ways.
When I was in Auckland New Zealand many years ago I saw a huge painted sign on one of the downtown buildings in the center of the city. It was a quotation comprising the following simple words “Rejoice for I have overcome the world.” The author was Jesus Christ. I shall never forget seeing how prominently this was displayed for all to see.
Somehow this admonition has deeply touched my heart and it effects me to this day.
So my question to you is the following: How to interpret this message from Jesus Christ, assuming it is an accurate quotation. I do not have any biblical reference in which to anchor this quotation. But it sure does resonate in my heart. Can you locate the quotation?
So assuming this admonition does accurately reflect the consciousness of Jesus Christ, the question I would like to share with you is how exactly to interpret it. I do not for one minute think that Jesus was simply saying that we should rejoice because Christ has overcome the world exclusively for his own sake.
I suggest to you that Christ was saying that all of humanity can now rejoice because Christ has overcome the deadening weight of human ignorance and evil in its massed historic totality. He is saying that all of humanity is now embraced in the totality of his historic victory. His victory is for the ages. It is for all eternity. Such is the power of whom you call the God-man. Which must mean that, spiritually and militarily speaking, Christ has already preemptively secured humanity’s victory in historic time. It is a mega victory which must have profound relevance to any analysis we can make regarding today’s escalating tensions.
I m very touched by the depth of your understanding of the meaning of Christ in the world. I believe you said that the essence of Christianity is that God became man so that man could become God. This is how I also see it. If so does that not mean that the historic process by which humanity slowly evolves to realize its innate god nature has been fundamentally guaranteed by the life of Jesus Christ? In his life and work he secured the victory of this process for all time. Hence his admonition to rejoice.
If you share my interpretation would this not mean that as the sky looks ever darker all around us now, that a radical optimism (even through a time of apocalyptic suffering) is objectively realistic. In other words, can we not say that Jesus Christ has guaranteed our final victory in this current struggle?
I would be most interested in your thoughts on this matter as, in my opinion, it touches so deeply on the essence of Christianity.
I have told you these things so that in Me you may have peace. In the world you will have tribulation. But take courage; I have overcome the world!”
– In God we trust – but no the way of using what’s written on the US banknotes 💵 💵💵
when they say … “in GOD we trust”
they mean : Gold Oil and Diamonds
I believe you said that the essence of Christianity is that God became man so that man could become God
That was not me, but Saint Athanasios.
As for the rest of your comment, I want to note that Christ’s victory over the world refers to His resurrection and His establishment of His Church. However, we also know that Christians will be persecuted and that during the Last Times only the 2nd Coming of Christ will stop the total destruction of mankind. So yes, we will win, but after our own death. If we are told to imitate Christ, that also implies accepting the Golgotha and our own death, but when we die, we will do so knowing that Christ has “co-resurrected” all of mankind by His own resurrection.
One Russian theologian once wrote that the Church is an “army in retreat” and he was right, we will continue to retreat, shrink in size, until the Second Coming. THEN, yes, those who endured to the end will be victorious. But the only path towards resurrection is death.
Andrei, I was wandering how you would respond to snow leopard… and I find myself in agreement (which doesn’t mean necessarily that what I am about to say is in alignment with your view).
I believe this “second coming” is a collective. Even if each one of us has to carry his/her own cross, even if we might be dying on our own, we are not isolated cases. We will be part of the critical mass that catalyzes Christ consciousness… if we choose to.
There are a couple of paradoxes I would like to mention: one is the “dying alone and being all one” and the other is Fate and Free-Will.
One interesting example, somebody gave to illustrate the fulfillment of our destiny, no matter what we choose:
if, let’s say, my purpose is to learn about love, I might live a life of much love, with joy, sorrow, pain and losses, sacrifices. I might be more in touch with the rawness of my heart, the infinite sadness, the longing and the belonging. Many brothers and sisters, loving ourselves through loving others.
On the other end of the spectrum, I might live a life deprived of love, secure in my armor, alienated.
Or I might live any way in between.
I would learn what love is either by experiencing its presence or by experiencing its lack off.
It is our choice, starting with which thoughts we feed ourselves, which words come out of our mouth, which actions we take, which personality we therefore feed , and ultimately which destiny we so attract.
Time will come when it will. Meanwhile, let’s eat and rest well, let’s “rejoice” being alive, so, when the time comes, we are ready.
Agreed. The world will be judged by what we make of it. Or at the very least we ourselves shall be judged by how hard we tried to make of the world, on Earth as in Heaven.
Andrei, the West and America are making fools of themselves, and they will do everything, just everything except the direct conflict with Russia. That is a fact of truth, and they cannot change the course of doom. They are also economically powerless against China. The only thing left for them is to instill fear in their vassals, because the space of 800 military bases in the world is shrinking, and NATO is just a horror of its own mistakes. Their Great Reset is an obvious absurdity and it is a sure sign of their impending capitulation. That is why Russia and China can wait for their acceptable terms, which means unconditional acceptance of those terms, and will pay the consequences for their really stupid behavior. The magnificent fall since the destruction of Yugoslavia and the deliberate bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade have propelled Russia and China to power. The loss of these last thirty years of the West and America is truly monumental. America foolishly overthrew itself, instead of withdrawing the Iron Curtain – the Warsaw Pact – it was supposed to move eastward economically, and remain the leading power today, but it went militarily, and only forced Russia and China to become world powers.
The idea that we can delay Christ’s coming through prayers and actions is strange to a protestant that has been taught to yearn for Christ’s coming, and even pray that it will be soon. Does the Orthodox Church teach that we should pray to God that He delay Christ’s coming, or that we by our actions may hinder the rise of Anti-Christ, and thereby the return of Christ? – I understand that we always should oppose any anti-christ, but could our actions really stop the Anti-Christ that will arise before the coming of Christ?
Having asked my question, I would offer two comments.
First, your analysis is sound and it is clear that US/NATO has been outmanoeuvred by Russia in military terms, but not yet in political terms. It seems that US/NATO now are falling back to a political strategy, even though the coup in the Ukraine were meant to deprive Russia of Sevastopol (as the support of Daesh in Syria were meant to deprive Russia of its Mediterranean port) and move in on the boarder. Russia has in other words thwarted US/NATO in its main objective, and US/NATO has been pushed to reduce its ambitions. An astonishing achievement in itself.
Secondly, politics and economics are closely linked, and to all who are not duped by MSM, it is clear that we are heading into a major economic crisis that will dwarf the great depression. The whole world will suffer, but those who have flagged out its production industry and are now relying on the FIRE sector, will suffer most and for the longest time. -Here again, we see Russia better prepared than US/NATO, and more able to exploit opportunities. When the Malaysian airline were shot down, it took US/NATO about three days to impose “crippling” sanctions on Russia: they stopped selling things to Russia. Russia waited for (I think) three weeks, before countering the sanctions with their own: they stopped buying things from US/EU. An effective, and almost heretical laps in to protectionism, which has worked wonders in Russian economy. And then, in their protected market, they rebuilt their agricultural sector and supported the industry to make “import-substitutes” (an oxymoron if you ask me; imports are the substitute). The market economy in (mainly) Europe, just suffered from lost markets, making even their own sanctions a pure loss. It is clear that US/NATO acted rashly and without any seriously analysis, while Russia acted deliberately, being able to use the situation in their advantage. The leadership in Russia is in other words superior to the leadership in USA/NATO, if anyone still is in doubt. -What really amazes me, or appals me, is that 7 years later, when the complete failure of their sanctions is clear for all to see, they still impose “sanctions from hell”. (They got the address right, though.) Not only are they acting without thinking in the first frenzy, they are seemingly unable to analyse the effect of their policy and adjust it accordingly!
That is why I am optimistic on behalf of Russia. Any political advantage gained in the Ukrainian situation will dissipate when the dollar hits the fan, to paraphrase a well-known expression. Might be that Russia is just silently waiting for that to happen.
Doest it not? What about omniscience, which inplies exact knowing future events, which inpkies them being set in stone?
Jesus knew Apostle Peter’s manner of death years before Peter died.John 22:19-20
A prophet can see the future. There is in the present no way for me to know whether the future already exists because I live in the present.
So I can not know what God has determined for the future.
Perhaps the future already exists and I can not change it and God will determine outcomes.
I pray ” Thy Kingdom come. Thy will be done.”
Wa ilayka al masir (to you we come back).
This may have nothing to do with the topic being discussed here but I had to ask Saker his thought on it. Latakia was bombed by Israel, exactly at the time when a Russian plane was in the sky. Israel made use of that plane as usual and bombed while Syria couldn’t respond properly. Israel has been doing this for a very long time now and Russia has been passive in her response given Syria is Russia’s space of influence.
Saker already explained the relevance, or lack thereof, of the Israeli “attacks” above, you should read it again. Israel “attacks” is the last concern for Russia righ now. They are meaningless militarily, does nothing to advance Israel’s interests geopolitically, and in the context of the current historical juncture, Israel is like a mosquito buzzing around, all noise, no bite.
I suggest you go back and re-read the piece about Israel above.
Then how come the US foreign/financial delegations are always well represented by Dual citizens, totally disproportionate to their US numbers? Weren’t they also the majority in the Bolshevik Committees/Leadership? Israel is the bastard offspring of America, the pet mongrel who do the lifting on most of CIA’s dark ops.
After reading a lot at this site over the years I totally understand that Russia is under no compulsion to fight wars on others behalf. However it puzzles & annoys me that Russia can’t/won’t have a quiet word in the Israeli’s ear . They can explain slowly that Syria is hosting the Soviet navy & Russia is there by invitation – and that they have a deep interest in the security of Syria. Russia could warn the Israeli Govt that future attacks would NOT be a good idea & would be responded to if they were unprovoked attacks. — – – Why Not ?
Because the Israelis won’t listen to any goyims, Russian or others.
And because Israel is doomed anyway.
Russia is not, repeat, NOT the world’s policeman.
Her main goal is simply survival, not world hegemony
I does seem odd that, having come to Syria in 2015 to turn back the tide of terrorist atrocities, the Russians would decline to do anything about Israeli terrorist atrocities.
Perhaps the reason is the obvious one: they can’t.
al-Qaeda/ISIS/etc all represented a major threat to Russia and Russia took them out.
Israel represents no threat to Russia.
Also, it is not Russia which will bring down Israel, it will be Iran and Hezbollah.
The Russians will only help behind the scenes (as they have in Syria).
But the key issue is this: Russia is not out there to enforce anti-atrocities laws or principles.
Russia just wants to survive.
I see no reason whatsoever for Russia to attack Israel.
With all due respect to you my friend,
I have read those explanations Saker wrote regarding Russia opting not to do absolutely nothing about Israeli strikes. Those strikes may not change anything militarily but financially they do take a toll on Syria which is starving. It also demoralises the Syrian military personnel simply because they feel helpless specially when Russian planes are in the sky at the same time when Israel takes a shot on them. I know about those words condemning those strikes but until now they have fallen on deaf ears.
Russia operates its naval and military bases from Syria and also has a presence, have lost troops and military hardwares. Maybe, just maybe making use of those systems against Israeli planes for once send a message Israelis can listen to?
Hey, if the Syrians want to shoot down Israeli aircraft or retaliate with their own missiles, they can.
Nothing stops them.
So why are the Syrians not doing that?
Why does not a single Arab or Muslim country do it?
Why do they suddenly want Russia to take all the risks for them?????
Personally I think Assad should order his S-300 crews to start shooting down Israeli jets as soon as they leave their air fields.
Let’s think about that. If Assad did that, Israel would presumably use that as an excuse to attack Syria more seriously.
Now the question is: what will Russia do about that? Russia didn’t want Syria to become a launching base for ISIS and Al Qaeda. If Syria is defeated in a conventional war with Israel, where does that leave Syria – vulnerable to ISIS and Al Qaeda, right? Vulnerable to becoming a Western puppet which will kick Russia out of Tartarus and Hmeimim. Is this in Russia’s interests?
I’m not saying Russia should “attack Israel” or whatever. I’m saying Russia might put the word out to Israel that Assad is considering shooting down Israeli jets over Israeli or Mediterranean air space and that Russia would be upset if Israel countered by attacking Syria seriously. This might tend to make Israel slightly more cautious about attacking Syria.
Granted, the current attacks on mostly meaningless, but it seems to me Israel’s PR wins could be considerably reduced if Assad were to take more aggressive action. But it also seems to me that he can’t do that without some backing from Russia, at least as far as a quiet word to Israel. Which puts the onus on Russia.
The key item you are missing is that the war against Syria has failed and now we are into mop-up and are just starting the massive reconstruction that is needed. Arab dictators themselves have recognized the war, the war they funded, has failed and the dictators started about a year ago to reconnect with Damascus and minimize the possibilities of their own thrones being overturned. Embassies have been re-opened and some members of the Arab League [of Dictators] want Syria to rejoin. While the war against Syria has failed, the larger war against Arabs, both Muslims and Christians is still going on.
I am surely not expert on this issue, but, this is what I have been saying all along. Syria do not retaliate against Israel, but some people want Russia to retaliate on behalf of Syria. Do not make sense to me, specially when Israel, make sure not to attack Russians in Syria. Russia do not have a R2P to no one except its citizens.
It appears that the Israeli strikes are allowing Syrian air defenses forces to sharpen skills and increase effectiveness. And certainly the Russians are monitoring the strikes and the Syrian responses to better asses capabilities of Israeli/US weapons. Seems like a good arrangement given that the strikes themselves inflict negligible damage.
I concur! The guvnor here says above that Russia’s not at war with Israel. IMO, Israel is very well represented if not integral to the CHAOS, the genocidal soirees, the War On Terror, as well as the Financial War (Sanctions) on Russia/Others through the Rothschild Central Banks. Is Goldman making money from the Syrian-Yemeni (pick any conflict illegal war? You can bet they’re part of the siphoning team.
When Uncle Sham lays down his sword & shield, Israel will be the biggest loser. I think in fact they had their eyes on a mass exodus to Crimea, their old stomping ground and the historical slave trade financiers of various Slavic people to Turkey.
“I think in fact they had their eyes on a mass exodus to Crimea”
Never happen. We have strict immigration quotas and besides that they will run head on in to Sevastopolets, the locals of this village who returned Sevastopol to Russia and dragged Krimu along kicking and screaming and who in essence run Krimu. We have enough trouble with a hundred thousand mainlanders trying to settle here, unwanted and unwelcome. With the war clouds gathering for all to see, many of our ‘guests’ have una//ed the AO back to mainland and are comfortably sitting out the crisis, they think, in their original domiciles. We have very long memories here and won’t forget the outsiders when the inevitable calmer times return. Their welcome here was and is chilly. Imagine what said ‘welcome’ will be after the crisis is over and the dust settles.
Never The Last One, paper back edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056 Never the Last One: a Novel of Spetznaz, opens your eyes to the Russian world not described in American news or fiction.
An Incident On Simonka paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1696160715 NATO Is invited to leave Sevastopol one way or the other.
“una//ed the AO back to mainland”?
Forgive my ignorance, you lost me with that one.
v mark, you need two spare ‘s’, most of us have them floating around somewhere. Replace each ‘/’ with an ‘s’. Basically our ‘guests’ have taken their sorry ‘butts’ out of our Area of Operations, or AO for short.
I’ve read Russian authors who claim that the delay in the Normandy D-Day landings originally scheduled for April or early May but postponed because of unfavorable weather and tide conditions (as reported in the memoirs of Western Generals) was actually to pressure Stalin to provide Crimea and Southern Ukraine as a homeland for the Jews by clearing out the Tatars, and the Western allies only proceeded when Stalin cleared out the Tatars and shipped them East “to protect the Tatar civilians from reprisals for many of their men joining the Nazi invaders” as he put it. As it turned out, after the war ended all of the Tatars that wanted to return to Crimea and Ukraine were allowed to, some did and some didn’t. It may have been Nikolai Starikov that said that, I don’t remember. It seems that first Stalin, and then Putin, do not co-operate with western attempts to get control of Crimea for whatever reason, Jewish homeland or just to control the Black Sea as as part of the “Great Game”.
Russia’s lack or direct response to Israel’s attacks makes them look weak, and those who are trying to instigate war between the West and Russia can use this to drum up support. Anyone remember the leadup to the Iraq war when it was said that the Iraqis would welcome us as liberators? It was all B.S., but people bought it which helped in ginning support for the war.
Same thing will happen here.
Russia has consistently and widely spoken up about the adventures of Israel.
This is just a few days ago!
Joint Statement by the Representatives of Iran, Russia and Turkey on the 17th International Meeting on Syria (https://is.gd/dnQRwk) in the Astana Format:
❗️ Expressed their determination to continue working together to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestations and stand against separatist agendas aimed at undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria as well as threatening the national security of neighboring countries.
Reviewed in detail the situation in Idlib de-escalation area, agreed to make further efforts to improve the humanitarian situation in and around the area.
Condemned continuing Israeli military attacks in Syria which violate the international law, international humanitarian law, the sovereignty of Syria and neighboring countries, endanger the stability and security in the region and called for cessation of them.
amarynth, what they fail to do, and it is done every time, they call it a military attack on Syria……and that is the largest failure of all, playing silly little word games. The Apartheid State continually performs Acts of Terrorism, against Syria and surrounding States, and that is how the conversation should be framed, every time……like refering to the abscess as what it is, an Apartheid State.
Every single person that puts type to print needs to start calling the Apartheid State out for Acts of Terrorism….these are designed to create terror in the local population….
Some are quick to brush it off as insignificant….. having lived in a war zone, terror is terror for all concerned…..a verbal change of tack is required……
All the best in the New Year, cheers M.
Yeah .. of course in my heart and emotions I agree fully.
I think the nomenclature has something to do with one state attacking another state – and not a loose grouping of terrorists. I think so, something like definitions.
They insist that they only attack Iranian activity, but this last one on the port? I don’t know if that excuse will stand any longer. And hiding again behind a Russian transport plane? Let’s see.
What stands out for me though, is the timing. It is like they are slithering in while Russia is busy with other stuff or they calculate that they can hinder Russia’s activities somehow.
.. or .. Russia’s lack or direct response to Israel’s attacks makes them look strong – because Russia is showing it has the awareness and confidence to not be manipulated into pointless military action for the sake of Israeli style machismo appearances.
” “On December 28, between 04:21 and 04:26, two F-16 tactical fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force from the Mediterranean Sea without crossing the border struck four guided missiles at facilities in the port territory of Latakia. As a result of the Israeli strike there was minor material damage to the port infrastructure,” said Rear Admiral Oleg Zhuravlev, Head of the Russian Centre for Reconciliation of the Warring Parties in the Syrian Arab Republic.
But more importantly, according to the admiral, at the moment of the strike, the Israeli fighters were shielding themselves from the Syrian air defense system by a Russian air force military transport aircraft that was coming in close proximity to land. Syrian anti-aircraft missile systems did not open fire, lest the 2018 tragedy be repeated in any way.
“Israeli F-16 strikes on Syrian territory while Russian planes are overflying is not a coincidence but a delicate calculation,” Major General Vladimir Popov, a decorated Russian military pilot, told the VZGLYAD newspaper. – This was a special operation of the Israeli Air Force – a tactical trick where under the umbrella of the enemy one fulfills his task. The Israeli F-16s are capable of staying for up to one and a half hours in their maritime area of responsibility. The fighters can take to the air in advance of our aircraft flying over the authorized corridors of international routes or over neutral waters. A strike is then launched.
Israel says it takes into account the presence of Russian military in Syria when planning the actions of its air force. “But we see that these issues are handled by the Israeli command and air force not quite correctly,” the expert stressed. And so, by carrying out the tactical military task of destroying Iranian weapons on the territory of Syria, the Israeli army is framing not only Russian pilots. It jeopardises the most important political task for Israel – friendly relations with Russia. ”
I have noticed for some time already that the new Prime Minister of Israel does not seem to care about having relations of (more or less fake) friendship with Russia. He is much more arrogant than the previous one and, in my opinion, more stupid.
Thank you Andrei, as usual you offer a formidable tour de force analysis of what is, in effect, the future battleground of Ukraine and the options available to the Russians in the event of an escalation from the Ukraine side. I’m not so sure that the Russians will be as ‘obliging’ this time around eg Georgia and the Chechen wars where they were well aware of US involvement and yet did nothing, as far as I am aware, to punish the US. I believe that this time around, a kinetic response to the US and its allies in Ukraine will be directed towards the US and other nationality mercenaries and the regular non-Ukrainian special forces and training troops – that is, precision strikes, deliberately, on those forces. Also, as with the Chinese embassy attack in Yugoslavia, the CIA contingent on the top floor, allegedly, of the Kiev US embassy would be targeted – as part of a ‘fog of war’/plausible deniability/’mistake’ approach by the Russians. In other words, I believe the Russian response would not be limited, inside Ukraine, solely to Ukrainian forces targets.
What I am going to say is not very smart but the western rulers are not very smart also and extremely delusional. So maybe Russia should have sunk the HMS defender destroyer back in june this year.
It would have shown that Russia is not bluffing russian weapons work and that contrary to what many western politicians think the mighty west is far from being that unstoppable force. This move may have cooled down some heads for real in the west and the current escalation may have never happened.
So maybe Russia should have sunk the HMS defender destroyer back in june this year.
So you want Russia to fire the first shot in a war against the US+NATO?
As a Russian my reply is simple: thank you, but no thank you.
Russia needs PEACE, not war.
Is that really so hard to understand????
Firstly I said myself that it is not very smart. Secondly I said that because putin said that no war would have taken place if Russia would have sunk the ship and I think he is right. It would have been a strategy of escalate to de-escalate. Something the Iranians did in January 2020 when they hit two US military bases in irak.
The Saker, if you doubt Russia’s ability to liberate and pacify the Ukraine by military means I would respectfully point you to Chechnya.
Chechnya had not one but two long and brutal wars against Russia as well as a robust insurgency, Grozny was nothing but burnt ashes.
But now look at Grozny today and Chechnya, it’s actually safer their than most parts of the U$.
Russian military will crush Nato backed UAF and then FSB will mop up the Bandera Nazis diehards in Odessa, Kiev etc just like they broke the Chechen jihadis.
S’novym Godom from Nato Occupied Latvia.
Really great article! Thank you and Happy New Year.
Amen Andrei, from your pen to Gods ears. Lord have mercy on us.
As concerns the US, if they are controlled now by the great reset folks, as is Europe and all of the West, fomenting chaos to reduce 7 billion useless eaters
Seems to be the plan.
Maybe the top echelon have a radiation cure for the environment that they plan to deploy later to save the earth…?
There have always been people crazed for blood and power.
Theotokos pray for us.
What will Russia do if the Ukranonazis shell a grade school and slaughter dozens of Orthodox Christian Russian School Children? How severe will the Russian retaliation be?
You and I both know that Slavic Russians will go to Heaven…Americans probably going to a very nasty place for allowing both Democratic and Republican Party to nuclear mass murder of Slavic Russia….
I make no claim to earning or deserving heaven. But I pray for His mercy upon me and others. But not all US Americans, as distinct from other and perhaps more worthy Americans north, central and south, are in favor of this nonsense. It’s just that we are effectively strapped to the mast and can only spectate.
The Land of Milk & Honey has been thoroughly drained, picked, licked clean by a bunch of Financial Vultures circa 1913 Federal Reserve Bank on a Private Win Public Lose money laundering and racketeering ponzi scheme.
The glorious internet has shed light on this fact and yet Americans are still in denial with their red & blue 2fer1 Teams.
Living The Dream has become Living the Nightmare. TweedleDee/Dum candidates offering the Illusion of Choice, Wacko Joe or Donald Corleone.
NEW BLOOD BANKS to replenish the old derivative debt burdened/laden heavy ones are nowhere on the horizon leading to the fall off $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ as Reserve Currency, the final nail in the coffin.
Now, like Rome, when foreign bases are deserted, like in Afghanistan, and personnel scurry back home to shore up Domestic tensions, the ROTW can breathe a fracking good sigh of relief, grab the popcorn and watch the debauchery, dissolution of the Satanic Empire.
You and I both know that Slavic Russians will go to Heaven
Actually, we don’t. Only God does. And “slavic” is not a Christian category anyway.
This kind of logic is pagan racism, not Christianity.
They are too scared for things like that because they feel their end…
All they can do bomb dead…. https://youtu.be/lQ2ZrFMrvhI
Interesting discussions with Ronald Cutburth who has researched the latest military tech:
What commentators have missed is that Russia’s proposals would effectively protect the “West” from Russia’s “aggression”, as well as protecting Russia from NATO.
Clearly, those (few) Western policy makers who deal with reality, do not regard Russia as any kind of threat, otherwise they would leap at the opportunity that the Russian proposals offer to neutralise any danger that Russia itself could theoretically present to them.
In effect, by its response, the West is demonstrating itself to be the aggressor, clearly and unambiguously; the West sees Russia as no danger whatever, whilst Russia has been self evidently the victim of NATO’s military encroachment .
True! However, only the very poorly informed, illiterate or totally disinterested are unaware that the US is a Criminal Genocidal State, the largest terrorist organisation by far in the world with over 900 foreign bases guarding their Plantation with dozens of proxy militias under ZATO command. So yeah everyone else with a pulse knows they are the Aggressors, fighting with a $Trillion payroll/investment fund tooth & nail in order to maintain their perceived status.
Problem for the US also that no one appears to appreciate, is day by day, week by week, month by month, former vassals/satraps are jumping ship, running to China/Russia’s sphere of influence for a better deal, and thereby eroding its influence further/more quickly.
Given the choice between am American airbase or a railway network, bridge, or power plant, Governments today are more Native compliant and prefer economically viable Infrastructure projects of Russia & China.
The Saker is correct to point out that Russia has a qualitative military advantage by targeting the Empire’s Achilles heel, that is the Empire’s over reliance on technology. Without it’s targeting and command and control systems the Empire’s military is almost useless. Large scale use of nuclear weapons systems still must adhere to the M.A.D. doctrine.
The Saker is also right to point out the spiritual nature of this conflict. One side promotes the degradation and subversion of mankind hence the sexual perversion, the breaking of the family unit, the conflict between classes and races, etc. Through mass media, the internet and all of its social derivatives, this is promoted world wide and is considered “normal “. Waiting for what is called the “Singularity” these leaders wish to replace the sacred, the divine with transhumanism and play the creator themselves.
This type of world government is nothing but the reign of the antichrist on earth.
In a world that is ever more atheistic and materialistic one must reconfirm the sacred vision of life. Are we as human beings on the quest for God and the sacred? Do we wish to belong to a vision of a spiritual world? Or have we aligned ourselves to the opposite view? These are the questions each of us must ask ourselves.
You neglected to consider the USA vs USA scenario. This would mostly be a case study in murder-suicide after the Usanians discover that their bank and retirement accounts are inaccessible, the gasoline stations run dry, the 9-11 system is down and the police are not responding to calls. These infrastructures have already been teetering on the abyss edge. One tiny brief puff of wind in the right direction at the right time… and then?
How long before the power grid goes completely cold? How long after that will the emergency storage tanks run dry? Will the drone operators and key punchers and aircraft maintenance people stay home to protect their families? Or, in maintaining consistency with their historical behaviors overseas, will they form up into bushwacking teams to prey on the weakest and most defenseless civilians they can find, in search of easy profit?
The US and NATO has since 9/11 been terrorizing smaller Nations, while sending their own Nations into deep debt, and their own populations into economic recession, and during the last 2 years into COVID Lock Down to avoid riots.
When the first round is fired between Russia and the west, the western financial system will collapse.
Then the US and NATO will not only face Russia and its SCO allies, but also the Nations they have terrorizing through the war on Terror, and by economic sanctions.
NATO Nations and the US will also face riots and civil war from its own populations, fighting to bring down the Deep State from within.
And the US and NATO knows it.
A week ago, retired US Generals warned of possible civil war in America.
The yellow wests in France are preparing for the spring in Paris. This uprising will spread to all of Europe. The population in all NATO nations is feed up by COVID lock downs and are ready to striker and riot.
Even Turkey may be ready to abandon NATO, as it has been under financial attack since Erdogan was attempted dethroned by the US in collusion with NATO. That may be the real reason why the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier strike group is now deployed in the Ionian Sea.
Russia has been building up its military defenses since the start of the War on Terror.
That may be the reason why we first see the red line from Putin now.
Today Russia is ready for war.
For the US, war with Russia will be fatal.
I suppose a flip of India, Pakistan, Turkey, Japan and South Korea is possible (first two together might be a real feat), but as for most Zone B countries with the exception of Russia and China, do any of them matter, except for imports of bananas? Maybe all together they might I suppose.
If the U.S. forces Russia to engage Banderistan due to its “responsibility to protect,” how likely are they to get away with winning the psyops war in Zone B this time (if The Saker and many others are correct Zone A is still a forgone conclusion — apparently you can fool almost all of the people almost all the time)?
“I suppose a flip of India, Pakistan, Turkey, Japan and South Korea is possible (first two together might be a real feat), but as for most Zone B countries with the exception of Russia and China, do any of them matter?”
India and Pakistan are already members of the SCO, South Korea will need to focus on their Northern Brethren, and has nor navy. Turkey is 50/50.
Even old trusty allies have been raped by the US (Financial, Migrant, Energy and Migrant Crisis).
I exspect most allies will keep a low profile when the shooting starts, and let the US take the slaughter.
“If the U.S. forces Russia to engage Banderistan due to its “responsibility to protect,” how likely are they to get away with winning the psyops war in Zone B this time”?
The US and NATO has already lost the psychological war.
You can’t threaten with one hand and protect with the other. (Financing Riots and then claim to protect)
“apparently you can fool all of the people all the time”
Exactly: The gig is up
Andrei, what about the UK+ Ukraine or Ukuk v Russia?
General Dynamics UK won a government contract worth £5.5 Billion to produce the invincible hi-tech Ajax Armoured Vehicle. During testing some 5 years later down the road and well over budget, 300 British soldiers lost their hearing completely, dozens are still in an out of hospital, some psychiatric dwellings.
OK so I jest! However, a cunning Baldrick Blackadder PLAN could be to send those armoured vehicles by remote control and overpower a hearing incapacitated Donbass front line.
It’s honorary, never lost a punch-up in any of the local bars, but they don’t call me General for nowt. Could pad my future military pension if I ever get the monies for my sex change.
The UK by itself is a spent, former, military power.
Now their military is mostly a joke.
All the British bravado is only because they feel protected by the USA.
In that sense, the Ukies and Brits are the same: small dogs which bark loudly because they feel protected by a bigger dog.
By themselves they are nothing.
have you considered that the financial/economic/political/social crisis unfolding in europe combined with the just under the surface crisis of legitimacy bubbling in the usa and social/racial polarization what with elections coming in 11 months may have the elites of both blocs thinking war might be the lesser of evils……..something to distract their restive populations from the incompetence of their stewardship?
if so the elites only goal then becomes how to keep it small or small enough!
It may take a miracle along the lines of a software bug, awake rather than woke cyber warfare agent or officer with the authority over a critical system (perhaps one not easily recognizable as such), or whatever China stuck in those electronic parts to stop The Schmuel from suiciding itself and 330 million others (just in Americastan alone) by pre-emptively nuking Russia — as in the ICBMs reaching the doors before they fully open or something and the subs defanged as well.
For one thing, I have a hard time believing from a common sense point of view that the distance between a one kiloton piece of artillery and full scale nuclear war is even so much as .7 nm, at least when it comes to peer or superior adversaries with nuclear weapons.
It seems the main threat the West is holding over the Russians are sanctions. Yet it’s safe to say, these probably won’t seriously damage them. For one thing, they could tell the Europeans to pay for the gas in rubles, or gold.
The real question that should be addressed, is if the Russians were sanctioned and likely the Chinese stood by them, what effect would it have on the over-leveraged Western financial markets? This would be a pretty big pin in that bubble and the central banks already have their backs to the wall. What if the Russians did just enough to get themselves sanctioned, then sat back and watched?
I have long believed that the greatest weapon that Russia and China have is to stop supplying the West. Within a month they would be on their knees begging, and civil war would break out.
It seems the main threat the West is holding over the Russians are sanctions
In reality, it is the opposite: LIFTING these sanctions would really hurt the Russian economy pretty badly. Thank God for the fact that these sanctions won’t be lifted in the foreseeable future!
With respect, I disagree with some key points of your analysis. I will highlight them below.
* US – Russia (conventional): Throwing large numbers of ships at a problem doesn’t make a military more effective today. What you are saying is the modern equivalent of what transpired during WWI where generals believed that throwing “numbers” at attacking the opposing force would allow them to win the battle. It is not going to work with the type of weapons that Russia has developed. The amount of slippage (meaning offensive military able to get through and attack intended targets) would be very very low.
* US – Russia (nuclear): To a great extent, the same (low amount of slippage) applies to nuclear weapons. The difference is that if they are destroyed in flight, the fallout for all countries in the trajectories of the two countries would be catastrophic.
* Russia – NATO: This is a non issue. Russia has overwhelming military superiority in terms of weapons and the fact that it has an integrated unified fighting force. The same cannot be said about NATO. See Afghanistan for proof.
* Conflict in Ukraine: Russia doesn’t need to invade or attack Ukraine. It just needs to support the LDNR both in terms of weapons (not even the most modern) and through air and electronic (warfare) support. As Kiev knows that any attack would be the end of Ukraine it will not happen. You speak about the political fallout for Russia. What about the political fallout for the US and most of Western Europe??? The Biden administration would be catastrophic. They would not survive. As for Western Europe, if they impose sanctions and cannot buy energy products, what will be the fallout for politicians in Europe whose economies sink deeper than they already are due to the plandemic??? Russia will still have the support of the majority of the Asian and many African countries as well as some in Latin America. The impact will be moderate at best.
Just a technical note, about point two.
If a nuke explodes in the atmosfere, without touching the ground, there is minimal fallout, almost nothing in compoarison to exploding in the ground, where the irradiation of earth rocks, etc, that goes up in the mushroom cloud as dust is severely radiactive (mortal in the first 24 hours, if directly exposed to it)
Off course there is the blast, schockwave, EMP… etc.
But regarding fallout, you better start researching again
I will highlight two points:
1. If nuclear bomb explodes in the air (from Wikipedia) – What happens if nuclear bomb explodes in air?
Death is highly likely and radiation poisoning is almost certain if one is caught in the open with no terrain or building masking effects within a radius of 0–3 km from a 1 megaton airburst, and the 50% chance of death from the blast extends out to ~8 km from the same 1 megaton atmospheric explosion.
2. How long before one can go out (from Wikipedia) – How long after a nuclear explosion is it safe to go outside?
One hour after a surface burst, the radiation from fallout in the crater region is 30 grays per hour (Gy/h). Civilian dose rates in peacetime range from 30 to 100 µGy per year. Fallout radiation decays relatively quickly with time. Most areas become fairly safe for travel and decontamination after three to five weeks.
Note what I said, “The difference is that if they are destroyed in flight, the fallout for all countries in the trajectories of the two countries would be catastrophic.”
So basically if a nuclear missile was destroyed over one of the Baltic countries, killing most people in an 8 km radius and forcing people to stay inside for three to five weeks, and you’re saying that is not catastrophic?!?
The plutonium pit is unbelievably toxic. Inhale 1 microgram, and the chance of cancer is 100%, but not immediately. If the only choice was to detonate the nuclear bomb in the air, away from cities, or to not detonate it, but to scatter the plutonium as a result of being blown up by an anti-missile missile, I think the detonation would be far less deadly.
Again, interception doesn’t mean Pulverization in the Air, or Detonation in the Air of the intercepted Warhead.
The Kern of the Warhead is a ball of plutonium or uranium that due to its density and caracteristics might very well survive intact (I mean without being pulverized, it migh break in some parts) such an interception.
and if intercepted and destroyed, it will not detonate. As I said before, to detonate A modern Warhead is not that easy. We write of compact warheads, the Kern must be compressed to get to critical, compressed and bombarded with neutrons.
If the compresion is not right, it will be subcritical and not detonate. Precise geometry and compression dynamics are the key. You do not detonate a modern Warhead with a hammer.
of Course to find and collect the pieces that fell to the ground are a hell of a Job. Much better than build a new city and populate it.
You said: “The difference is that if they are destroyed in flight, the fallout for all countries in the trajectories of the two countries would be catastrophic.”
If they are intercepted or destroyed in flight there will be no more fallout. What you have are pieces of uranium or plutonium falling to the ground (dangerously radiactive, but not a massive fallout that contaminate thousands of km²)
Interception doesn’t mean the nuclear head explodes. Is not that easy, nuclear heads need some very precise geometry and explosive dinamics to detonate. They are not like the WWII “fatmen” or “littleboys”
It is a question of perspective, a single dead is for me cathastrofic but for (so called) statesman a million deads are just statistics
Ground explosion would contaminate thousands of square quilometers with fallout for weeks (deadly) or years (dangeroulsly). About a 100 big yield ground explosiond would make The US or Russia inhabitable.
Athmosferic explosion would destroy (catastrofically, yes) cities, industrial and transport nodes, etc. but the damage have mucht to do with the height at which the explosion occur. If the explosion is at, say 10 km height, the damage will be due to schockwave blast, and EMP. But no instant dead of people due to radiation poisoning. Such an explosion might be survivable. you can have a very good idea about fallout and destruction levels in this link: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ (in this website, airburst is not configurable, it is always at the point of maximun damage)
an explosion at 20 or more km height would only affect airplanes nearby on the air, and destroy all electronics due to EMP. Ground destruction will be minimal.
At this point any kind of war will be a cathastrophe per se. But if one side have to launch five times as much ICBM as the other to cause as much dammage… well that is a disadvantage for that side.
What they crazies in the Zone A are surely gaming are the consecuences of such scenarios. With very unsatisfactory results for the them.
Saker: I suggest you give too much weight to the PR gains of the West if, for example, Russia intervenes directly in the Donbass, or Ukaraine. PR may count for something in the West, but much less so in Eurasia. I think Western PR would have little impact on Russia’s calculus.
It seems to me that two different sets of ideas are at conflict in the Ukraine. One, as you very well put it, championed by Clausewitz: “War is the continuation of politics by other means”.
The other side seems to agree with “Le Tigre” Clemenceau when he said: “War is the total failure of politics”.
I truly hope the second idea prevails.
Very warm greetings to you and everybody on this wonderful forum!
I’m afraid that Russia will be God’s implement of punishment for the many sins of my nation. I still believe most people in the USA try to do good. But, we have allowed so much violence and evil to be done in our names. Lord, have mercy.
The $778 Billion US Defence Budget in real terms is a haircut, earmarked to prop up loss leaders, trough gorging behemoths like Boeing; 2000 Generals who sat atop a tank in the Kuwait – Iraq War as it rolled through a no-fly-zone, and an assortment of Bankers, Blackrock, scores of Grifters, Corporations and dozens of other Hangers on like cockroach Israel.
Not a lot of bang for those big bucks!
It’s humanly impossible to deter via threats or force someone who is completely decided to commit suicide and is hell-bent on (self-)destruction. You cannot stop anyone who is determined to be in “love” with darkness.
This is not some philosophical thing. We are witnessing this and have been observing it for years. For example, Germany and her energy policies. Every reasonable party can make a mistake and seeing the outcomes it can correct itself, but that’s not the case here. All signs show that these people are sinking into oblivion and suicide but they are still doubling down. No, it’s impossible to help those people. At least, it’s impossible for us and our limited abilities. We cannot do anything.
There are very few righteous people left to permit the further existence of humanity and this world. The only thing we can do is seek to be part of these people via constant repentance and contrition. We can seek to make things right with God counting on His living kindness and mercy. By having broken hearts and shedding tears in humility over our sinfulness and the sins of our fathers, we correct not only ourselves, but bring the whole world a tiny bit closer to God.
please, where can I find your quotation from Abraham in the Old Testament?
Isammart, the quotation is from a tropparion — a short hymn on the subject of Abraham. For more info, click on the word tropparion in Andrei’s quotation.
Correct, that is a prayer, not a quote by Abraham.
The Troparion can be found in the Service to Saints Abraham and Lot.
You’ve mentioned multiple times in the past that this war with Russia is only 5% kinetic. So, in essence, all you’re doing here is showing that when it comes to that 5%, Russia is in a good position. Well, sure. Many have tried to conquer Russia militarily and failed. But what about the other 95%? Who do you think is winning that side of the war?
During his big press conference last week, when someone asked Putin about the Woke Virus, he stated very matter-of-factly that it’s going to come to Russia but somehow, magically, the Russian people will resist it. (I paraphrase but in essence that’s what was said. Putin started talking about conservative values and such.) President Putin is clearly a very busy man so he can be excused for not turning on the TV these days or browsing Russian YouTube channels.
I would say that the West has already lost the economic war which I put at about 15%
80% of that war is informational, and here the West is still much stronger than Russia.
My hunch is the first few waves of occidental forces either in theater or trying to enter, as well as their prepositioned supplies will get wiped in hurry, during a decent sized dustup. There is no confidence or support from the US populous for that type of adventure. Can you imagine president Biden or one of his guys having to stand in front of everybody, explaining how tens of thousands of NATO troops disappeared last night, along with scores of ships and hundreds of aircraft. Are you kidding me? Look at the effect the battle of Tarawa had on the folks in the US concerning moral. It was an exceptionally violent fight but, very small in scale. Yet, it visibly blunted recruitment for the US Marines at the time. This is not the 1940s.
There is probably about a 48, maybe 72 hour window of opportunity and the blood letting would be enough for the West, for 100 years ( that window might only be 12 hours, afterall how on earth will everybody live without the internet?). Flash a couple of pictures of your poster perfect trans-person sawed in half and then BBQ´d and see how that one rolls. It is not just he equipment, da gear. They are not prepared for real warfare, postioned right in their faces.
It should not be underestimated how much damage losing Afghanistan has done. If the American populace won´t get behind it, the folks over in the NATO countries sure as heck won´t be eager to be the next ones scheduled for rapid incineration. The pols in the West know this.
My take, I wish well to all.
Two interesting links for our numerous French Speaking readers(in principle just click on Rus or EN or DE or IT flags and you got the translation in your language), otherwise google is your friend or yandex.
Biden pushes Ukraine into war in Europe.
Liquidations and dissolutions: Settling the situation in Russia… Finally! (Memorial fake ngo, Soros and German think tanks + bnd financed).
I believe your assessment of Chinese hypersonic weapons is not entirely accurate. They do have a medium range hypersonic missile in service and tested an ultra-long range hypersonic missile August 2021.
About the ultra long range test: all they tested was a glide vehicle. That is still far away from an actual intercontinental hypersonic weapon: flying around the glob and having a CEP of less than, say, 30m are two very different propositions.
Saker, I don’t think you know much about China’s hypersonic missile development and program. Without getting into too much details. China deployed and paraded its DF-17 medium-range hypersonic missile much than two years ago during the national day parade. The so-called around-the-globe FOBS that the western media had reported a couple of months ago is actually dual-use: its explicit goal is VTHL (vertical takeoff horizontal landing) space plane and the end-goal is to have HTHL passenger space plane by 2030. The underlying technologies are rather complex and advanced involving combined cycle engine (rocket, turbo and scramjet). Explicitly it can also be used as orbital bomber, delivering hypersonic missiles globally. In addition, China has had decades of experiences in developing and deploying maneuverable ballistic missiles, the most well-known of which are the DF-21D and DF-26 ASBM. These missiles have some similar profile as hypersonic missiles: they travel at hypersonic speed and is terminally maneuverable, thus creating challenges for the missile defense systems. In fact, China has also solved the tough problems of targeting not just fixed target but moving target, the heat-resisting due to high reentry speed.
In short, China is very advanced both in R&D and deployment of hypersonic missiles. Most of the US defense officials and analysts acknowledge that the US is behind both Russia and China in hypersonics. There are tons of open source and public information about this.
I fail to understand how the US gets any political victory out of a limited confrontation. Firstly, my impression is other than that part of the population that cares about what CNN has to say, and, of course, the Beltway class, no one cares about any geopolitics here anymore. Everyone is either wrapped into their various identity politics and social media garbage, or they’re concerned about the corona madness and inflation. I am pretty sure that most Americans don’t even know what or where Ukraine is, and they’d care for maybe a minute before the next celebrity gossip story.
Next, the already pre-determined course of action is to cut Russia off of SWIFT. So this immediately means both Europe and the EU do not get their much needed fuel. Given the state of the EU and US economies, the next pressing concern for everyone involved would be surviving the winter without heat and gas inflation (as the US cannot make up Russian imports from anywhere given the sanctions on Iran and Venezuela). This causes the economic bubble madness to finally pop and all hell breaks loose and no one cares about Russia. There is also the likely possibility of coordinated action between Russia, China and Iran at this point: China stopping entirely, or intentionally slowing down US supply chains even more, and Iran causing mischief in the Gulf shipping lanes to further exacerbate fuel shortages. Economic collapse in the West ensues.
So other than the Beltway and think tank types congratulating themselves after provoking Russia into a limited conflict, I fail to see how any political points are won. I suppose one could argue that the ensuing economic collapse is just enough for these psychos to finally complete their Great Reset plan, collapse the dollar, erase any US debt, and force everyone in the West into virtual serfdom once and for all. And so maybe the new plan is just to create a fortress and isolate the US and the EU in their virtual economy, while they buy time to figure out someway to get the rest of the world into their Matrix universe. This, of course, assumes they can subdue the heavily armed half of the US population–which they can’t, and then they’ll be sucked into civil war indefinitely.
I’m like a broken record here lately, but I just don’t see any way that a sane, rational person can find a victory in any US action that doesn’t involve sincerely sitting down at the negotiation table, admitting they cannot and do not control the rest of the world, and trying to integrate into a new multi-polar world they do not control. Everything else looks idiotic and terminal from where I sit.
Krungle, I agree that politics in the EU$A are the politics of illusion — especially the illusion of victory as Andrei wrote above. Nevertheless, being a child of WW2 I would not like to risk my newly born great grandchild becoming a child of WW3. Ukraine is an artificial construct; Kiev and the rest of Ukraine East of the Dnieper will soon revert to their natural state: the Ukraina borderlands of West Russia. I appreciate Putin’s strategy in Syria since 2013, which is to help local forces fight insurrection but restrict the main role of Russian forces which is to neutralize the threat of a full scale NATZO invasion.
I tend to agree with much of your take. thank you.
The political goal of the Empire has nothing to do with keeping the emotions and loyalties of the Empire’s home population, who are mere NPC’s (non-performing characters), like 2D cardboard cut-outs. Those Americans who still think their rulers give a rat’s toot about their opinions, are suffering from a specifically American type of narcissism.
The real goal is to break off all EU ties with Russia, which has the subsidiary goals of
1. giving US corporations continued access to gobble up European companies, such as GE buying Alcatel.
2. selling overpriced US military hardware and intrinsically costly LNG to a captive European market,
3. demoralizing Europe’s civilians and demonizing the dissidents so they can be neutralized. Poland has
been tossing dissidents into prison on false charges of espionage since 2018 and the trend seems to
be more repression.
4. doing regime change on any European government that doesn’t toe the Washington line. At stake are the
2022 French elections where the Rothschild pawn can’t get reelected, Italy where a banker barely has a
grip on remaining prime minister, etc.
The goal is also to damage Russia (and China, and Iran) by getting non-EU nations to engage in economic warfare against them.
The delay of the US response to the Russian ultimatum is already a sign that Washington has rejected Russia’s demand that Ukraine should not enter NATO. In this scenario Russia has made it clear if the ultimatum is rejected Russia will have no choice but to retaliate.Want to know Is it that Washington is trying to create a scenario in which they will appear as defending themselves and blame Russia for the aggression?.. Is their a deception coming?.. Looks like the evil ones are hell bent on war with Russia. What kind of a deception is possible in this scenario?
Your best work yet. Thank You.
This is a well-balanced assessment from the military viewpoint. I believe every and each case is well stated, and their consequences are well put. I just find it hard to believe the West is, right now, willing and consciously plotting a direct hot war with Russia. It is not that they are not arrogant and power-thirsty. The main reason is the very high risks involved in this confrontation. Even a more limited confrontation between Ukraine and Russia is a very risky proposition to the West (especially to the EU).
My opinion is that, whatever they were, the West’s plans for Ukraine went south very fast due to their own incompetence, and they are only now fully realizing it. What they want is a way out saving face, as you said above. As reported in the media today, there will be a call between the US and Russia this thursday, and there has been some spin stating it will be about Ukraine. Probably, they will agree on a deescalation with both sides giving up some. Of course, the US will claim Russia only conceded retreating because of the US actions, but this is just posturing, as also is all the noise from EU and Ukraine right now (see today’s screams from Joseph Borell).
I’m not saying everything will be hunky-dunky afterwards. This is just to lessen the risks. The US will continue to engage in their dirty hidden acts in a more discreet way. We’ll probably see tensions flare here and there, but perhaps with less involvement from the military. The situation for local people in the Dombass region may not get better, though (but probably will not get worse, either).
Of course, there are the two Russian ultimata. Some of the concessions the US will probably make this thursday may be related to them, but I think not much will be said on this for now. The meeting on january 10 looks more like the place to discuss these topics. What seems less certain to me is how much Russia is willing to accept from these talks. I still think Russia is dead serious on what it said, but will probably accept if americans, as I think will happen, agree on a few topics but refuse to concede on others, while, at the same time, agreeing to continue negotiations. Again, posturing to save face. Eventually, they will give most of what Russia is asking, but only after some time have elapsed so that it doesn’t look too bad for them.
There are two important points here, though. First, how much time Russia is willing to wait? If americans agree to negotiate, but start to drag their feet for one, two or three years (giving small concessions along the way), is it ok with Russia? I think it will be, if the concessions are relevant enough, but that is something to be seen.
The second point is that the US will not take this lightly. I expect they will try everything dirty and despicable, although always in a covert way. They will be more careful to avoid a military confrontation. Provocations like flights and ship navigation around Russia (and China) will probably continue. After all, they have to justify the 750 billions dollars on defense.
One last, but in my opinion not less important point. I still think Russia planned the ultimata not only for their specific topics. Rather, one important aspect about them is to show both to countries in Zone B, as well as to those in Zone A, the West’s weaknesses. I must say I think they will probably be (and have already been) very successful on that. I must also say that I’m not sure how good this is. The US will likely be revengeful for that.
I’d say I’m optimistic that we will avoid war this time, but I’m rather pessimistic for the next 10-15 years.
I wish the best for all of us. May God allow good sense to prevail.
“The Russian problems are not military, they are political”.
Politics are largely image. For me, a Britisher who loves Russian literature, Kiev and Crimea are images of Russia and always have been. I would be glad to see Kiev part of Russia again – officially.
Politics are also partly force. As for the Ukro-nazis, Nazis worship force and will bow down to superior force. Remember Hitler’s last words when the Russian flag was hoisted over the Reichstag: “The rotten no-good Germans were unworthy of my genius. I ought to have led the Russians; they are the supermen”.
Politics are essentially housekeeping. The Ukraine prospered under Russia and I believe it will do so again.
Having said that, I do not advocate more “kinetic war” than the Axis of Resistance is currently waging. The forces of Anglo Zionazi Capitalism will rot and retreat from the Ukraina, same as they are rotting and retreating from the Middle East. To my mind, the financial threat from the AZC — subversion of the Resistance from within — is more dangerous than their military threat.
Advanced+++ Russian EW systems will be deployed creating ‘military-technical’ A2/AD bubbles is what I’m guessing is one of the first things they’ll do. No more chasing intruders off, just mess up their electronics. I’m getting a strong feeling that whatever they do, they’re set to give one hell of a bitch-slap!
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
Philosophy is like standing in a dark room looking for a black cat.
Metaphysics is like standing in a dark room looking for a black cat that isn’t there.
Theology is like standing in a dark room looking for a black cat that isn’t there and yelling, “I found it!”
Science is turning on the lights
I know science, and I can say: science is nothing. Science is done by the monkey animal homo sapiens. Metaphysics and theology is the practice of glimpsing, probing, appreciating the eternal. Carl Sagan was presumptuous as most scientists are. Without faith, life becomes dry, empty, immoral and nihilistic. This is the problem of the West: it is becoming scientific and nihilist, therefore, it is becoming immoral and consequently decadent! Satan, Satanists, the devil, evil, wants to bring nihilism to the planet. That is the question!
Philosophy and Metaphysics are like standing in a dark room looking for a black cat.
Theology is like standing in a dark room looking for a black cat which you can dream of, and feel, but it is still very difficult to find
Science is turning on a dim light on a corner of the room, but the cat is in another corner.
metaphysics and philosophy is the same thing. I know science, and science is just a human activity. Science nowadays is making inquisition and burning, especially the science of the chaos empire. The lack of structure that Nihilism offers is a soft power weapon used by the empire.
Regarding nuclear warfare – US bombed Iraq with depleted uranium for at least 10 years. Technically, isn’t that nuclear weapons too? Could be that they count this as nuclear warfare too as a midstep to the mushroom clouds?
Would that change the equation?
DU is pyrophoric and makes DUOx (oxides) as a fine dust. This is “dusting”. It is a form of radio-logical warfare. The first victims of dusting were the US people downwind from the trinity test, Mormons, mostly. They still suffer from the dust. At one time “dusting” was a big “secret” discussed at cocktail parties in the DC circuit. The general idea being to use very radioactive dust to deny an enemy the use of the dusted ground. There’s dust, and then there’s dust. DU dust makes for a slow burn of generation after generation and adds to the internal social stress and costs of the target population….they have many damaged children… Substance? That depends, see> https://www.thoughtco.com/the-most-radioactive-element-608920 DU is also chemically toxic. The slowness of DU as a weapon tends to obscure the long term effect of depopulation and ruin of a society and culture due to cumulative injuries.
It adds to the crime wave, but it changes no equation. In actual fact dusting makes obdurate and implacable enemies, generational enemies.
The correct term for this is LLRD for Long Lived Radioactive Dust.
It never made sense to me why the USA used DU in Iraq. Especially in Al Anbar province, where it was widely used, home to those of Saddam’s army that would go on to become ISIS. These Sunni tribesmen were also close relatives of Saudis (Anbar has large border with KSA), another key proxy of USA. Why shorten the shelf-life of your generational proxies? And surrounding lands and oil workers / mercs who need to work there? And even risk the existential oil wells?
Were they merely mindlessly using standardized ordinance of the time, said to be the most effective in punching through metal? Or if deliberate depopulation for coming expansion of Israel (from River Nile to River Euphrates includes Al Anbar province), do they possess technology for subsequent clean-up? The recklessness boggles the mind.
DU was also extensively used in Serbia, with same ongoing miscarriages, teratogenicity, cancers and countless other health sequela. I read a study over a decade ago how it affected a lot of the soldiers who handled DU munitions. And these consequences were known for a half century.. These are evil crimes truly beyond description; what is sacrosanct once you dare them?
When I saw the Russian demands to US I had a sense of a philosophical Déjà-vu. I remembered this text, which I allow myself to post below in my own translation and just leave here:
“…15 years passed since his death; white river trams sailed across the Neva River towards the Islands, heart wrenching waltzes spilled out from under the pearl shells of bandstands in the city gardens; it was a nice warm day [in St Petersburg in 1908] when a usual reception for foreign ambassadors was held in the building of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs near the Pevchesky Bridge. Minister Muravyov, silently, presented each of them with a paper and the diplomats, who were not expecting a surprise, scanned the document in bewilderment… It was the famous circular on disarmament, Russia’s call for a peace conference of countries in possession of armies and navies.
The Prince of Lichtenstein, the Ambassador of Austro-Hungary, said:
‘Your declaration reminded me of a novel called “Universal Peace” by the Dutch science-fiction writer Ludvig Kuperus… His main character Otomar, the ruler of a fictional kingdom of Liparia expresses similar ideas. Is this one of those Russian-style jokes?’
Not a shade of a smile – Muravyov answered:
‘Our policy does not tend to draw ideas from pulp fiction. We are not dreamers! Our document originates from the peace project developed by the late Chancellor Gorchakov back in 1874. Now, when Bismarck is gone, the not so very comforting balance has been drawn for militaristic politics. Bismarck cost the nations of Europe five billion francs… These are quite dark laurels for his tomb.’
The German ambassador Hugo Radolin interfered:
‘Your projects are utopia! Disarmament is practically impossible.’
‘Practically, no one has tried disarmament yet.’
‘But look through the Old and New testaments: the divine word assures us that war will exist till the end of days. More over, wars facilitate the development of science and technology. Even the humanitarian surgery develops best of all when attending to battle wounds. Finally, poetry, music and painting – what would they glorify if it were not for wars?’
Muravyov said with displeasure in his voice:
‘Let’s put casuistry aside! After all peace is not a grave misprint in the chronicle of human consciousness…’
Soon a peace conference of 26 armed countries opened in the “Forest Cottage” near Hague; the hall was decorated with an allegorical painting depicting friendship of nations with an inscription in Latin: the greatest victory is that which brings peace. Simple citizens of the world reacted with delight to this new establishment (“a dove with an olive branch in its beak became a favourite symbol and appeared everywhere – from envelopes to brooches worn by famous beauties…”) . A delegation of peace advocates arrived in St Petersburg from England and laid to Muravyov’s feet 30 volumes of signatures by people demanding governments reached peaceful solutions to international disputes. Workers of one German printing shop called a strike, refusing to press a book entitled “The Future of War”. The compositor said:
‘We will not return to the press if the author does not change the title. What does it mean – the future of war? War must not have a future war…’
The German newspapers, however, also quoted Moltke: “Eternal peace is a dream, and not even a beautiful one, because war is a part of the divine construct. Without war the world would have drowned in glaring materialism…” Kaiser Wilhelm II said:
‘Disarmament? The idiots think it’s all so simple. Why then we, the Germans, kept our bellies tucked in for so long, making do with a sausage and a beer? Was it just in order for me to take the battleships to sea and open the Kingston valves to the joy of peace advocates? May my hand be not raised to melt cannons to make piss-pots for the rachitic snotty Köpenick bastards…’
Finally disarmament supporters decided to make a “crusade for the benefit of peace” – something elemental and unheard of. Popular demonstrations were supposed to come out of the European capitals and, having merged in Berlin, to continue to St Petersburg, where they would finish the peace work with a grand apotheosis of the victory over militarism. “But (as newspapers reported at the time) the German government took fright at a prospect the crusaders’ visitation of Berlin. They were apprehensive of popular unrest and an explosion of chauvinism among Germans at the meeting with the French if the others demanded disarmament of Germany… And only the old man August Bebel with his usual sincerity spoke at workers’ rallies: “Russia is now our ally and comrade…!”
(The slaughter began 6 years later…)”
Valentin Pikul ‘The Battle of the Iron Chancellors’
Mods (I care not if this is omitted from the comments if you think it is irrelevant. My intention was the hope that this would reach Andreii and he would read this. If you’d choose to send this to him and omit it from the comments. I would be content. Thank you!)
I wrote this in 1996. I think the song is pretty relevant in todays world imo. These are lyrics to a song although, I omitted the chorus lyrics because it doesn’t work as well in a poetic format.
After reading this piece from you today, I thought it relevant.
The Devils Hands©
There’s more people lying, and less people trying,
Seems like a recipe for success
But there’s more people hurtin, and less people certain
Everybody’s racing to impress
We’re no longer asking, why everyone is masking,
the truth of the situation with a lie,
and the gays are getting louder, as they’re called to get prouder
While we, scratch our heads and wonder why?
The Politicians scramble, when they find out their gamble,
was not as popular as they first thought,
but it doesn’t really matter, as the people are in tatters
as they only know what the TV taught
The Media Baron manipulates, while our reasoning capitulates,
They set societies morals into solid fudge,
and they manicure our heroes, and treat us all as zero’s
and we act the part without even a budge
The Police are stuck in the middle, they’re open to the fiddle,
They’ll dance as long as the music plays,
and the media play the groove, only the conductor is removed,
by the democratic voters, voting through the haze
How long can we live the lie, condemn the truth to die
and draw only from the mind of man?
For when we declare ourselves creator, and tie the hands of the narrator,
We place ourselves into the Devils Hands!
“However, while to force the Russians to intervene would be a military defeat for the Ukies, but it would be a political triumph for the collective West”
It’s a wrong thinking. My guess is that the russians don’t need to give a crap about what the west thinks. they can bomb Kiev to the ground, then say: “woops, it was by mistake”, just like the yankees have done with the chinese embassy in Belgrade many years ago. Because they CAN. They don’t need to invade; a invasion is very costly. And what can be wrong politically? The west anyway have done almost everything in therms of sanctions, they can only bark right now.
I fully agree with what The Saker says about the main issues except about his point about a “political victory” of the West in case of a russian military action ?
The citation of Clausewitz reads exactly: First the political and diplomatic developments intending at isolating your enemy, then war. It’s exactly what the russians are doing, in testing the resolution of both Germany and France to go to war with Russia for Kiev.
In the Saker’s reasoning a political victory is suposed on the contrary to follow a huge military defeat of the kiev’s forces. Yes there is the famous exception of the victory of Pirrhus. One in many centuries. The governments of the west countries are not so strong as to deal with a defeat of NATO to defend them. And they are also fighting on other fronts, – healthcare, economy, major energy crisis.. -. Moreover it must be reminded of that our US ally is fighting the military industry of our country, France.
A lone voice in USA wilderness
RT: Putin seeking compromise with Biden in Thursday call – Kremlin
No Marko, of course you are leaving out the context here as did RT.
Here is the quote:
I’m not sure why that horrible RT headline, but it has kinda nothing to do with what Peskov said.
I’m not sure why that horrible RT headline,
Because they hire the wrong type of people.
RT has been in free fall for several years already.
what would be the point of negotiations if neither side is willing to seek a compromise.
Not all conflicts are zero-sum games.
The USA cares above all about appearances.
Russians care above all about facts.
Right there there is some wiggle room for negotiations and compromises.
“Will Putin and Xi, aided by Khamenei and others, pull off such a miraculous feat?”
Your mention of Khamenei leads me to wonder if, at some point, Muslim migration (and conversions) might bring about more peaceful, reasonable Western governments.
Well, first of all, the so-called “Muslim migration” is really a “migration of people from nominally Muslim countries”.
It has very little to do with actual, real, Islam.
But yes, real, traditional, Islam is much more peaceful and reasonable than the western messianic ideology of racial superiority (they don’t call it that, but that is what it is).
As for the Takfiri freaks, they are to traditional Islam what the Papacy was to traditional Christianity.
It’d be nice if you write a separate article about the racism that still exists in the Western society. I lived there for two years and I saw it first hand.
There are many instances where it comes out plain.
E.g.: attacks on Asians in the USA.
IMO, liberalism is just a veil to cover the inherent racism across the entire Western society. They use it also as a modern tool of imperialism, i.e. ‘we’re on higher moral grounds than you, so you should listen to us’ type of stance.
Resolve is the key to everything. Like USSR thought about economic consequences when they were fighting Nazis… You can’t make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, like Swift of Nord stream 2. If I were Russian decision maker, I would destroy Nord Stream 2 myself. Not just shut it down, I would blow up the pipes to make a clear point. Russian authorities are talking reason with empire??? Saker is trusting in divine intervention???
People, get real. Freedom and independence doesn’t come on a silver plate of friendship. What empire wants is to spread globally at any cost, nothing short of it will ever satisfy them. Those are illusions of a sick minds of course, but that’s what we’re dealing with here with. Today’s phone call between Biden & Putin should be like:
Biden: How are you Vlad?
Putin: Are you agreeing with the terms Joe?
Biden: Well, we’ve talked about it and we will discuss it with our allies some more, most parts are unacceptable but you know that already, we’ll start talking on 10th but it will take much, much more time to give you few totally useless concessions…. bla, bla, bla, bla….
Putin: Goodbye Joe.
All else is just a waste of time.
I am happy that you are not the President of Russia :-)
Would Germany get compensation for the Nord stream 2 egg.
You make too much of reputational risk.
Great powers do what they see as in their interest…. public opinion be damned…
The only thing which matters is results…
Now to your scenarios…
This is the day and age of mini-nukes == 1-5 Kt nuc warheads. They weigh tens of Kg… fit into a 155 mm
artilery shell. One can destroy an airbase or naval base.
The USN doesn’t do mine hunting/clearance very well..
Key to stopping massive nuc counter attacks / pre-emptive attacks is mining harbour channels. All NATO harbours have long channels between the docks and the sea.
I know whereof I speak. I commanded a ship and served on all 5 oceans and 19 seas both in the navy and during my leadership of the institute.
If the Russians are going to contain their response to proxies, they need to beef up the Novorossians with volunteers and the “north wind”, while doing the same with the Abkhazians and South Ossetians, and Syrians, and Yeminis. They should create resistance groups challenging the baltic states. They need to reply to all critics… “We decide what goes on in the FSU, and no one else! You don’t like it…. tough titty… get out of dodge..”
A proxy war against the Ukies should have as it’s goal taking everything east of the Denipr, and total destruction of the Ukie armed forces. Nothing less. Also, why wait for them to attack?? Give them a deadline to implement the Minsk agreements, and when they miss it…. Go for broke…
As for Russia attacking the Ukies…. That should be done for the purpose of implementing the Minsk Agreements…. and as a UN operation… The Minsk Agreements are covered by an UNSC resolution… Russia is a UNSC member… Again if this raises a hue and cry the response should be ” We are a member of the UNSC, having veto power, we have decided to implement the Minsk Agreements. You want us to do this. We also are the successor to the Soviet Union, thus we decide what goes on in the FSU…. ourselves…. You don’t like it…. tough titty…. Get out of dodge…”
As for Ukraine being a cesspool of neo-nazis… the plan should be simple…. they die… their families die… their relatives die…
Andrei… I’m the oldest of the oldest 25 generations from Atilla… My family fought the facists on both sides of the front and on both the Atlantic and the Pacific. I’m a war veteran, my son is a war veteran. I take no prisoners.
Now… as to when… why hurry… NATO is in the process of evicerating itself from within….. Big Pharma greed has eliminated the use of re-purposed generic drugs, now successfully controlling COVID in Japan, Indonesia, Cambodia, Belarus, India, and Bangladesh. Instead they have gone whole hog for experimental mRNA “vaccines” which cost a fortune, and have deleterous side effects. Millions are in the streets..
NATO has bungled it’s energy mix… likely the EU will run out of gas mid-winter… leaving millions without heat
NATO has bungled it’s fertilizer supply… likely next year’s crops will be a fraction of previous ones.
When your enemy is shooting himself in the foot…. why get in his way???
The Chinese can’t afford Russia to be defeated. It would mean U.S. Military bases on their border.
Russia would not be taking this stance now if China didn’t have their back. Chinese troops in Ukraine would not surprise me.
How many “flame thrower trucks,” hidden in plain sight. They can sit in a commercial sheds unnoticed. Their Nazi targets being updated constantly knowing exactly, to within an inch, we’re to point and shoot. Kiev Roast Chickens. America and NATO have not experienced a total defeat since, Afghanistan, Vietnam and Korea. ( a stalemate don’t count as a win) The Red Army was first into Berlin, found Hitlers charred remains then charged on in a westerly direction. Didn’t miss a beat. Think about it.
What smells best in the morning and the rest of the day, is total victory. The Ze is apparently being measured up for a suite by unhappy nazis. So the ukie war is a guaranteed cock up. Not that anyone in America will care.
German families will then decide and demand warm homes and cooked meals as the Dollar implodes before the iPhone 14 is released. The best iPhone to date, with a better camera. Donald Trump was the best entertainment. Remember the super duper missiles in Syria and the great armada steaming to Venezuelan or was that Korea?
The entire shit show is a sad, embarrassing mess. It just keeps giving.
But…what about a “biowarfare”, the use o bioweapons? They exists. Some crackpot surely want to use those ones in Ukraine in a much more fancy manner than in Syria?
Perhaps there is a way where any political setback to Russia gets nullified or greatly diminished to a negligible dimenstion. And within a few years faded away.
Of course the planners know and can get to it infinitely easier than us poor devils, but will mention anyway.
Calling a Chinese paratroopers batallion to the border of eastern europe most defiant stubborn neighbor. A mere symbolic move, of course. Or announcing the immediate creation of a NEW jointly run Chinese/Russian artificial island & naval base in the South China sea.
Excellent Saker! I truly like what you say about the mercy of the most high. On the other hand there is this I like from the other direction by Baha.
Oh son of spirit:
The best beloved of all things in my sight is justice. Turn not away therefrom if thou desirest me and neglect it not that I may confide in thee…
Thank you Saker for a good overview of the military scenarios.
In my opinion, the harder option for Putin (as it has been along) is not how to win the war(s), but how to win the peace.
We have to bear in mind that the world is comprised not so much of the map of nation states, but a world in which a huge part of the planet is owned by a tiny handful of people.
Catherine Austin Fitts and the German lawyer Reiner Fuellmich refer to this tiny cabal as “Mr Global” — I prefer to see them as the inheritors and beneficiaries of ruthless land grabbing pirates and warlords, who cloak themselves in an aura of respectability, but that is not important.
What is important is that they regard us common folk as mere serfs to do their bidding, and if we get too noisy or numerous, then periodic culling is the solution, as has happened many times through history. It looks like they are pushing for it to happen again.
I have studied Vladimir Putin closely over the last 20 years, and I firmly believe that while he is not afraid to confront danger, he is at heart a peace-loving man, and absolutely loathes killing and mindless destruction.
He has somehow, against all odds, managed to steer Russia back to a country worth living in, reversing the majority of the pillaging and gouging that dominated when he came to power. Crucially, he managed to block the efforts of those powerful interests who saw Russia’s vast resources as theirs to plunder.
Note his recent words, to the effect that if no meaningful progress can be achieved with regard to Russia’s demand for rolling back the US/NATO encroachments, then he will “be guided solely by his military advisers”.
This is a sign, IMO, that Putin has all but abandoned hope that he can avoid the clamour for conflict that those who serve Mr Global have been relentlessly pushing for.
The danger for Russia and the world is that if Putin goes, what would happen? No doubt he is well protected –after all, he himself is no slouch when it comes to his intelligence background –but the risk is huge, because to the evil SOB’s he is the fly in the ointment of their plans.
I do not know of anyone who might be genuinely capable of filling Putin’s shoes. Perhaps some of the commenters here might have some ideas on this?
Wishing all a happy and safe 2022
Great comment weary. I have a few comments.
Firstly i suspect that Russia is more than Putin (I hope so because any single person is vulnerable to assassination). 10-12 years ago I watched a little tear jerker of a film called “The Italian.” It had a big impact on me, because it was in fact about Russia and the determination of a little Russian orphan boy to find his mother and NOT be adopted by Italians. There was something in the spirit of this film that i suspect explains Putin and the Russian recovery from the trauma of the 90s.
Secondly I think you are right that Putin has abandoned hope of sanity by the west. In a way this has freed him up. For years he had hoped, even thought, that Russia could peacefully integrate with Europe. He is a St Petersberg boy ie very much in the European sphere of Russia. He was conscious of the need for good PR and cautious about premature action. However I think he has now almost totally abandoned this hope – Germany has shifted to the US orbit, UK has gone nuts, Scandinavia has shifted fully into the USA orbit and even Greece is lost as a friend to Russia. China now has his back. What this means I think is that Putin no longer wants or needs the good opinion of Europe. He now has nothing to lose by saying enough.
Thirdly the economic and social collapse of the West is increasingly obvious. Laden with debt, inequality of wealth distribution, declining social cohesion and a general loss of purpose means that despite the PR campaigns of the media, the west is sick and very fragile. The election of Trump, Boris, Biden etc is a symptom of declining trust in government and a sense of panic in the population. (Note this is not about whether these three are good or bad, but rather that they are out of the box – not the standard cookie cutter leaders).
Fourthly there has been a great deal of technological development in warfare and it would seem that Russia and China have the edge on the US. I am cautious about saying this because i think it the height of overconfident hubris to boast about how much better your weapons are etc. However what I think we can say is that it is more even than it was in 2000, and that China has built one heck of a big navy.
I hope that the west will see sense and back down but I am not very hopeful.
I agree entirely that Russia is more than one man, even if it is Putin, who IMO will be long remembered as one of the world’s truly great leaders.
However, the propaganda of the west is an insidious beast, and there are still many in Russia who are in thrall to the Hollywood version of reality (as well as not being averse to those magical shekels for favours).
To resolve looking like abject losers, the US leadership has to devise a means to placate the Russians with just enough to avoid direct hostilities, while attempting to save face at home and abroad. I suspect several left field events may happen both during the talks and soon afterwards.
The most likely is that we will see the sudden departure of Zelensky, either through his resignation through ‘ill health’ or sudden unexpected demise.
The new Ukie leader may give undertakings to back off the Donbass issue and be given time to try and stabilise the situation (of course in reality this will be just a time-buyng exercise). Agreement may be reached to arrange regular inspections of missile sites in Romania, Poland and other areas near the Russian border. Similar concessions may be found that also will form the basis for more lengthy discussions. It will be a fine balancing act by the negotiating teams, but I don’t believe either side wants a hot war.
Mr Global plays a long game, hence my concern as to who will replace Putin when the time comes.
Your point about the declining state of the West is well made. Sadly it is also accompanied by ever more draconian attacks on personal sovereignty and freedoms, ushering in a totalitarian regime encompassing much of what used to be called the “Free World”. It is an open question whether the people rise up against this “Great Reset”, or simply meekly surrender to Big Brother.
The future looks grim indeed.
RT Makes it seem as if Putin blinked by asking for todays meeting?
Lord have mercy. Most Holy Theotokos help.
How do you perceive crime and punishment on the international level with regard to the Eastern Orthodox Christian faith? In other words, where do you see God working in all this, and what is to be our part? I will pray for a miracle as well. I’m in the tough position of being in the true Church (Antiochian Eastern Orthodox) while living in the United States (Orange County, California). I thank Christ for people like you Andrei, and for real world leaders like Putin, and for the countries of Russia and China. I’m becoming more aware of our collective evil being perpetrated around the world (not to mention our crimes at home against our own populace), and would like to see justice done on behalf of all the victims of our innumerable crimes. From where I exist, that means going down with the ship in repentance, while easing the suffering of my fellow every day people as Christ permits – and with His help. But at least the world will be better off. Kind of takes the wind out of my sails when planning out the rest of my new (and likely shorter) life though. I’m 33 years old. I have my doubts about living even to the ripe old age of 45 in this new context. Glory be to God in all things however, even if I’m stuck in “Zone A” with the loony toons. For now I’ll just focus on making it to 34. My life is in the hands of the Lord Jesus Christ and his Most Holy Mother Mary.
Thank you for your hard work, and may God be with you,
Saker, the war has already started but it is currently on slow simmer. The gloves have come off. A few days ago, I read how Ukraine complained that partisans had burnt a large accumulation of military vehicles in Odessa. Then, I just saw video and read that the Russian Aerospace Forces hit a nest for foreign operatives near the Turkey border. This is after Israel bombarded Syrian port facilities using a landing Russian aircraft as a radar shield. I am sure the Russians extracted vengeance for this provocation. When Putin was asked what he would do in case his 2 peace treaty proposals were rejected, he stated it will be diverse from a list of options presented to him by the Russian military. I take it as it will be a combo of covert and overt actions. We may not hear about the covert actions but these could include the use of electronic disabling EW action in different theatres at once as well as multiple hits on accumulations of enemy military equipment by saboteurs and partisans. The overt actions may include recognition and arming of the LDR. As far as bringing some dosis of reality to NATO / US, I find it entirely possible that Russia will park suitable platforms for stand off hypersonic conventional decapitating strikes near NATO / USA decision centres. The western electricity supply grid is very fragile and unstable. Hacking it is not just possible but certain. There are a number of things short of hot war that will precede it. In any case, I pray cooler heads will prevail.
“Christianity believes that while this outcome is not in doubt, it is inevitable, it can be delayed by our prayers and actions. In other words, while Armageddon is inevitable, we can, and must, try to do everything in our power to delay it.”
Armageddon already happened in AD 70. But, it is inevitable that the forces of the Dragon will rebel against the rule of Christ, and ultimately be destroyed by fire from heaven. I’m not sure the current showdown is so cleanly divided between good and evil.
On a negative note, Russia has its back against the wall as Putin has lately emphasized. However, on a positive note, the timing of Russia is really perfect: Both Europe and Ukraine running low on energy; the last days of US leadership somewhat in charge in any sense (before the chaos); before NATO has placed all its nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe; Russia is extremely strong right now (military / economy / united / China / make your pick). On top of this, the choice of Ukraine as the battle ground is too good to be true for Russia. Russia will always be superior to the West in this area, and the West is making a big mistake to have all attention focused on this area…
I fully agree with the Saker that it is a total battle to the end between Russia and the West where only one can win, and with Team Putin in place there is really no way the West can win. My cynical “armchair general” suggestion for Russia is to strike in Ukraine (after a Ukrainian strike or a false flag). (1) eliminate as much expensive hardware as possible; (2) destroy as much infrastructure as possible to “freeze” the country completely; (3) kill and capture as many US and UK persons as possible (this is imperative); (4) capture some symbolic Ukrainians for prosecution (this is extremely easy, just hand out money); (5) send out the Novorussia army to take the most important places like Odessa, BUT not too much territory (I will explain why).
At this point Ukraine will collapse (100% guarantee), but most of Ukraine will still be under the NATO-installed government and this is extremely important. One thing that we have neither discussed here, nor at the Duran is the fate of the national debt of Ukraine. As long as Russia stays out and Novorussia only takes small parts, the national debt will still have to be serviced by the Kiew government. Of course, the NATO countries will laugh and say that Russia will now take care of it,,,,but after just a few weeks, everybody will realize that the West who gave all the credits to Maidan-Ukraine will also have to take the $50bn (?) losses. That will be a moment many will remember :) It will also give Russia a great moment to negotiate with somebody that might listen (for a change). This must be hard as a rock – all credits given to Maidan-Ukraine MUST be lost. Period. No negotiation.
Let me be clear (and cynical). It is key that the non-acknowledged Novorussia does all the difficult work. It will eventually incorporate Kiev because there is absolutely no way the Kiev bourgeoisie will live under the yoke of the Ukro-nazis from Galicia when it is clear that: (1) they cannot hide their stolen money in the West; (2) Ukraine will not join NATO / EU; and (3) Russia is doing really fine and is supported by China.
The legal case for repudiation of the !MF loans is clear. The IMF had basic rules which forbid loaning money to any country which
1. is engaged in a civil war.
2. in fact can not pay back the loans, as estimated by the IMF economists,
3. simply has no plan whatsoever, for how the loans would be paid back.
The Ukraine violated all three rules. Every other nation had plans on file with the IMF of how, supposedly, they would pay back the loans. That requierment was entirely waived for the Ukraine.
The legal principle was established at Nurenburg, that crimes against peace (warmongeringI is so great that punishment does not need to be based on violating any specific pre-existing formal law. By that norm, the directors of the IMF qualify as war criminals for funding the civil war and the oligarchs’ war on all the people of the Ukraine.
Russe gehe in den Krieg. Das lese in den Kommentaren, warum?
Rettet doch eure eigene Welt, jeder für sich.
Viele Analysen, sehr gut, fehlt nur goldstandard
Was werden deren Auswirkungen?
Das Thema komplett nicht präsent.
Yandex translate. Mod:
Russian goes to war. Read that in the comments, why? Save your own world, each for himself. Many analyses, very good, missing only gold standard What will be their effects? The topic completely not present.
The western move to war(they think will be limited in place and time) has absolutely NOTHING to do with Donbass, Ukraine or even Russia.
It is all about replacing the dead financial system(great reset), covid did not work enough it only prepared the window for action as all western economies are de facto bankrupted under mountains of trillions or even quadrillions of debts and derivatives. Impossible to ever repay.The green climate hoax is also part of the game.
Pretexts were needed.Inflation(soon hyper inflation)is skyrocketing due to crazy money printing since 2008-9, and even more since covid started.Interest rates below zero or near zero, it is simply not sustainable anymore.
Biden has been chosen to be the usefull idiot to act with ukies/US neocons blinken/nuland in full delirium
“downward trend in the rate of profit”, nothing new it is pure K Marx
Everytime the capitalism is bankrupted -1815,14/18, 39/45 they only have war to go ‘destroy and rebuild’, kill some millions people, save the banksters and start all over again at zero.
There is just a problem this time a veryyyyyyy bigggg one: tons of nukes are available
Wait and see but for me war is a certainty. Second goal is (they think so)to destroy Russia, not by war really but by isolating the country with maximum sanctions and embargo even if the europeans must be sacrified.
They overestimate their power as usual. Their final goal is of course China and for China no sanctions will deter this immense country, they know it, only nuclear war will do(see video of J Pilger).
This is why we see such an alliance between Russia and China(with probably some ‘suprises’ for our western ‘friends’), I would bet on a new zone B financial system and a total embargo from China on all goods and services produced for the West and a same total embargo from Russia on energy delivery as ‘force majeure’).Refusal to accept the dolar as payment for anything, liquidation of US T bonds(done already for Russia).After a few weeks they will have to capitulate as shops in the West will be almost empty, as the vast majority of goods comes from Chian and without Russian energy(not to forget Iran and Venezuela) we will have the perfect shock, 50% of world energy out of the market, prices will explode to never seen before levels.And why not a new and this time really very lethal c19 variant.
Brenton Woods zone A will be ready, Zone B will secede.I would not be suprised to see India suddenly leave the Quad and her zone A/B unconfortable position, to come back at full force to Brics, SCO and taking a pro Russia/China orientation as India needs both Russia energy and Chinese goods, in exchange they can provide to the trio services(even in English), audit, pharma, IT etc…China will retake Taiwan over of course, and western countries will have an even bigger problem of chips just to name one.
The US is about to sacrifice the EU idiots(easier since Merkel left) by trying to save her from the final collapse.
It is not by ‘accident’ or ‘chance’ that they waited for Merkel departure(Macron and bojo are both a joke) as we now have a full russophobic German Govt ready to do anything even destroy their own economy for the yanks.
Expect an Isra hell attack on Iran as well at the very same moment.
I think it’s highly time we pray God to help.us in these perilous moments.
I just happen to come accros a very interesting book recently “Le Christ guerrier” from Frédéric Saint Clair. What we need at this point is a signal from a christian spiritual leader in.authority for all of christianity that this is a fight to preserve and reenforce chritianity and that God is behind us all.
The complexity of the conflicts and the interdependence of West and East cannot be solved simply by wars. It is simply not possible. The East can only initiate a lengthy process of “re-education” as a long-term solution by putting financial and economic pressure on the West to educate the sinners in the West. The East believes in this and knows that this is a long and painful road.
All the current conflicts are being fought in one way or another. It is their proxy wars that keep the West alive like junkies. There is no quick, all-encompassing solution.
Conflicts exist not only on Earth, but already as Cosmic Wars, Satellite and Space Dominance, Tech War, AI Dominance, and Rare Earths.
We live in a deeply divided and conflicted world. The future of our planet is still in the hands of the people, and the people in these morally polluted Western countries can only contribute if they stand up and change it for the better. The chances are slim, but hope dies last on planet Earth.
The phone call has been completed. 50 mins behind closed doors:
“WASHINGTON, December 30. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden started their phone call at 15:35 Washington time (23:35 Moscow time), a White House representative told journalist Thursday.
“The phone call between President Biden and President Putin began at 15:35 Eastern Time,” the representative said.
The talks between President Biden and President Putin ended at 4:25 p.m. Eastern Time (00:25 Moscow Time, on Friday), the press service of the White House said.
“Kremlin ‘pleased’ with Biden-Putin talks, but warns against ‘colossal’ mistake……”
Here’s my problem with that report: Ushakov is talking about breaking relations if the US imposes sanctions on Russia over Ukraine.
1) Russia isn’t going to invade Ukraine unless Ukraine does something stupid like attacking Donbass again.
2) Therefore the US isn’t going to impose sanctions over Ukraine.
3) Therefore Russia isn’t going to be breaking relations with the US.
Therefore we have to assume that what is really going to happen is: Ukraine Is going to attack Donbass again – and everyone knows it. Which is why they are laying out the end results for all to see, while portraying these as “ifs”.
The whole thing is a farce. It’s obvious Russia knows Biden is lying and that he is fully on board with the nonsense about “Russia invading Ukraine”. Russia knows the CIA and the neocons are encouraging – if not ordering – Zelensky to attack Donbass. Russia knows it will have to respond in that event. Russia knows that Biden will impose sanctions in that event – and that is the whole point of this exercise: to further demonize Russia. Therefore Russia warns against a “colossal mistake” – which Russia knows the US is fully intending to make.
It’s ridiculous. Just get on with it. Zelensky: Do your thing so we can get past all this bullcrap reporting.
Even with or without the fake pretext of an ”invasion”, sanctions will be voted anyway on jan 14th after WS closure.
Will will just have a fake negociation from jan 10th to the 14th.
Kremlin ‘pleased’ with Biden-Putin talks, but warns against ‘colossal’ mistake. Putin Warned Biden If West Decided to Impose Sanctions Against Russia Over Ukraine, This May Result in Severing Relations.
Statement from the Russian ambassador to the US:
“The situation is extremely dangerous,” Antonov writes in the article. “No one should doubt our determination to defend our security. Everything has its limits. If our partners keep constructing military-strategic realities imperiling the existence of our country, we will be forced to create similar vulnerabilities for them.”
I read that apparently the US will send wendy sherman to negociate with the Russians. If it’s confirmed I have a bad feeling about this.
“Our Creator is a merciful God, and maybe there are still enough sober-minded specialists in the USA who will do what it takes to prevent that outcome?”
As an atheist and an American who has observed my country for 72 years of my existence, I can say with high confidence, “That ain’t gonna happen.” My advice to Americans: have an open ticket to resources in South America, and once the US starts shooting seriously against Russians or Chinese, hop a plane and get out.
Also, with regard to Russia not taking control of half of Ukraine, I still say they don’t have to. All they have to do is destroy the Ukraine military in its entirety, take control of half of Ukraine, organize local governments of pro-Russian elements in each region and arrange for their local military and police defense, then go home. No “occupation”, no “responsibility” for anything on a long-term basis. This is not Western “nation building”, it’s more like “pacifying” a region so as to move on to other things.
Well we could have had a war at any time in the previous 8 years, and we are still here. I think ruling class knows the score, and knows it cannot win against Russia and China, otherwise we will not be sitting talking about it.
“And this also begs the question of whether we, as a species, even deserve such a miracle?’
I believe we do. Most of humanity does not want a war, only power hungry warmongering neocons want war, and have zero sum mentality. There are plenty of counties who want to jump into the multi polar alliance. You, Andrei did speak of Zone B. Also let me remind you that vast majority of countries signed a treaty calling Nuclear weapons illegal. Finally an article from Ajamu Baraka, in which he argues that vast majority of humanity is waking up, and does not want to see world destroyed due to short sighted greed of AZ elites.
In addition I want to make a comment while it is true that there are people in Eastern Ukraine who only care about ruble, and also that there are russophobic people, there are also those Ukrainians who do care about Russian values (as well there are even in Western Ukraine, even if they are small minority) Michael Pogribinkii comes to mind. However I agree. Russian intervention in Ukraine will be disastrous. Ukrainians must sort things out themselves.For those calling for Russian military intervention in Ukraine should look no further than Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1980’s and see how this worked out! Military intervention do not work, and also the Empire is trying to set a trap for Russia, and hopes that Russia walks in. Humanity deserves a second chance, because there are lots of good people in this world in all countries!
The factual real-world analysis presented here is succinct, well thought out, structured and detailed and it should be left at that. Theoology doesnt play any role. It reminds me of the superb essays i used to read in The Plain Truth magazine, 95% was rational real-world and actually very educational…and 5% towards the end drifted off into religious stuff…well it WAS a religious org funded by charitable donations…
i also have been exposed to those who believe that the Second Coming is something extremely positive…something like Armageddon+the Anti Christ followed by the Second Coming. Lets be rational here and admit that the Aftermath will be very painful for every living creature when radioactive clouds circulate around the whole planet…so theres little hope for any ‘Second Coming’…only the Cockroaches will survive…
More ‘rationally,’ i would seek an opinion about the availability of Neutron based weapons to Russia. I recall that Russia did have them at one time but that the US propaganda machine managed to ‘destroy’ the Russian stocks unilaterally…so…do the USA or Russia still have any Neutron Bombs?
The reader might be interested that Neutron bombs will destroy all living matter in the theatre of operation but the radioactivity appears to disperse within a short time so that troops can enter the zone and just take over all equipment, of the opposing forces, since these remain intact and functional. So this type of weapon system appears to have some interesting advantages? or is this an escalation leading to a higher level of nuclear activity?
If Russias position is “Damned if we do…damned if we dont” then any escalation of rhetoric on the political level can be countered with a complete cut-off of energy supplies to Europe, as in “sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me” Russia is anyway turning more Eastwards…
Much has been written about the economics of ‘retaking’ the Ukraine with some observers more or less stating that the ‘leftover’ Ukrainian population are a bunch of useless dimwits. The Ukraine was actually economically reinforced by Russia to keep it as a loyal buffer-zone, to the degree that in PPP terms the Ukrainians had a higher p/c income than the West Germans in the 1980s. Ie the Ukraine was extremely capable, so the focus should be on the 5% of Ukronazis that have helped destroy this wealth and isolate them.
This leads to some examples: the German population of 80 million in 1929 was destitute…it took one inspiring man to create a dynamic, powerful, innovative and productive population of 80 million by 1939…same in the USA…1929 the USA also experienced the Depression years. Roosevelt managed to get the wealthy to pay 95% tax rate and this kick started the boom in military output followed by a conversion to civilian economy which created a new and growing Middle Class. I might as well also mention VVPutin taking over in Russia and transforming the Nation back into a military and economic powerhouse within 20 years.
So the processes are known and the historical evidence is there. i see no reason why the Ukraine cannot be rebuilt to regain its buffer-status but this time as part of the Russian Federation, to ensure a full filtering-out of all rogue elements within that society. (if this is not done, the problems will only repeat themselves ? No?) . I know many Russian-Ukrainians who would very much like to have a strong Russian intervention. They are not “civilisational parasites” but “just about surviving day to day in the current system and desperately hoping to get back to meaningful work.”
In this context i fail completely to understand why there has been no infiltration by Russians since 2014, to create an internal war of attrition within the Ukraine and help decapitate the current malevolents. Russians merge into the background far more easily within the Ukraine than any NATO member can…The CIA has done this globally since 1945 and it does puzzle me why Russia has not employed such tactics in its own language sphere…
This is one of the typical misconceptions about “neutron” bombs. They are just your usual thermonuclear bomb, but the casing material is transparent to neutrons and or made of neutron burst enhancing materials.
Since neutrons are quickly absorbed by the atmosphere, the radius of a lethal burst is not large. That is why neutron bombs have yields <10kT, because if larger the lethal physical explosion, heatwave and pressurewave radius would overtake the neutron burst radius.
That they leave infrastrucure intact is also a misconception, as they are just low-yield thermonuclear devices with all the characteristics they carry.
A 1kT device would have a:
– pressure of 32kPa of 600 m, destroying most of non-concrete protected structures
– heatwave producing 3rd degree burns 500 m
– 100% lethal dose of radiation 900 m (also not immediate, about 1-2 days), 50% 1500m, usual aftereffects
– fireball in the centre
All these numbers apply only to unprotected targets, even high air humidity limits the effectiveness of the neutron blast drastically
To sum it up neutron bombs are thermonuclear devices with minimized physical blast and maximized radiation burst radius. Their effectiveness is thus pretty low in a conflict with modern tanks as they are shielded pretty well vs ER radiation. That is why they aren't in use anymore.
I very much appreciate the detailed clarification.
…….i fail completely to understand why there has been no infiltration by Russians since 2014, to create an internal war of attrition within the Ukraine and help decapitate the current malevolents……..
Can’t you guess? But that would take away the job of many, the fans a reason to cheer, the embittered faith in a “better” tomorrow. Why aren’t questions like this asked and answered on the “alternative” sites? However similar is prety much everywhere written, ……”the current narrative of western PSYOPs is not that Putin is too patriotic, it is that he is not patriotic enough…..”
It reminds me of the time of Comrade Tito in Yugoslavia, when everyone “felt” that “something” was not good, but they did not stop cheering. One day we learned the real truth. At the time, whoever asked “the question” was called anti-Tito’s element or an anti-state enemy. Tito also made a better health and social system, brought and built companies in the country, BUT …… at what cost. There was not one Yugoslav nation, although the country was called Yugoslavia, but there were many nations and ethnicities with their rights, language, culture, which they then invoked one day:)) … it all ended in the civil war.
It seems that if you wish well to someone it is characterized in ” Basel bank for settlements” as an act of hostility :))
Some encouraging news. Not much, but at least communication lines are open!
Many bloggers are celebrating the entering into combat duty of the S-550 system.
Reliable sources in Russia are denying it, saying the news on this issue were “greatly exaggerated,” the S-550 have not passed the testing stage, they are still in development. In the minds of many people, Russia can now destroy satellites and what not, thousands of miles into the sky. People should sober up, and be careful with their sources. Otherwise, a false sense of “power” based on false assumptions can develop, and that’s dangerous.
S-550 might be ready in 2 to 3 years.
Ok I give up. What does LDNR mean?
Wikipedia is a great source of information, googling an easy verb to practice.
“The Luhansk People’s Republic, alternatively spelled as Lugansk People’s Republic (Russian: Луга́нская Наро́дная Респу́блика, romanized: Luganskaya Narodnaya Respublika, IPA: [lʊˈɡanskəjə nɐˈrodnəjə rʲɪˈspublʲɪkə]; Ukrainian: Луганська Народна Республіка), abbreviated as LPR or LNR, is a landlocked quasi-state. It is located in Luhansk Oblast in the Donbas region, a territory internationally recognized to be a part of Ukraine. The Ukrainian government asserts that the Luhansk People’s Republic is a terrorist organization and that it wages a war against Ukraine. Luhansk, the territory’s largest city, serves as its capital. The population of the republic is approximately 1.5 million people. In its constitution, LPR is proclaimed to be a democratic constitutional state. The current head of state is Leonid Pasechnik…”
“The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR or DNR; Russian: Донецкая Народная Республика, tr. Donetskaya Narodnaya Respublika, IPA: [dɐˈnʲetskəjə nɐˈrodnəjə rʲɪˈspublʲɪkə]) is a self-proclaimed state in the eastern Ukrainian oblast of Donetsk. Only the partially-recognised South Ossetia and the neighboring Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) recognise it. The capital city and largest city within the DPR is Donetsk. Denis Pushilin has served as the DPR head of state since 2018.[need quotation to verify]…”
LDNR is a combination of the two, Luhansk/Donetsk Narodnaya Respublika.
Hope that helps.
Andrei, I think you are a little too pessimistic about the outcome of the ongoing confrontation between Russia and the United States: the current confrontation concerns the interests of two great powers and is taking place, for the moment, on a purely political level.
You quote Clausewitz, but the Prussian general, when he defined war as a continuation of politics, was clearly wrong and expressed a fairly primitive conception of political relations: as Carl Schimt noted, a few centuries later, war is not the continuation of politics, but rather politics presupposes the balance of power between the military deployments on the ground. This last concept is very well known to the Russian leadership which applies it very effectively: since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has often been forced to withdraw in the face of American pressure because it was weak, now that Mr. Putin has reconstituted the country’s military strength – as you so masterfully explain to us – he can raise his voice and vigorously assert the interests of his nation. Ultimately, politics is a much more complex activity than simple military analysis, since political choices presuppose the evaluation of a set of factors that are economic, military, geographic, demographic and so on.
The military aspects are only part of the highly complex political game that a power plays: you tell us about the situation in Syria and, in this regard, I would like to ask you: do you really believe that the total pacification of Syria is in Russia’s interest? Would a fully sovereign country concede its military bases to another even if it is an ally? and at what price? and again: do you think that Russia would be interested in a naval base in Sirte? if yes, do you think it is easier to get it from a strong government that controls the whole country or, rather, from a warring faction that desperately needs military aid?
If I am right, don’t you think that American, Turkish and Israeli actions in these scenarios actually play in the interest of Russia? So why should Russia act more firmly to block them?
You have shown us very clearly what are the strengths, in the military sphere, of the powers that are facing each other today, but don’t you think that Russia could bring the whole of Europe to its knees without even firing a rifle? It would be enough to completely close the gas tap and Europe would fall into total chaos.
How long would it take countries like Germany and Italy, with their large manufacturing industries, to go bankrupt with the price of energy out of control? Don’t you think that a crisis of this magnitude in Europe would have fatal repercussions on the United States itself? How long do you think Wall Street would resist in the face of a serious financial crisis in Europe?
If I am right, then why does Russia not shift the gas supplies it now guarantees to Europe to China by immediately realizing Power of Siberia 2? The Chinese are eager to do this, but having only one customer for your merchandise is a great reason for weakness: it creates addiction, and a nation that wants to be a power cannot depend on anyone otherwise it is just a vassal.
I mean that Russia has no interest in the Western world suddenly collapsing. Several analysts, especially outside the Western world, agree that the United States can disintegrate within a few years (isn’t it you who wrote a book titled “disintegration”?), Who do you think could be the main beneficiary of such an event today? I believe China, and in this way we could say goodbye to the idea of a multipolar world because we will in fact have a single hegemon.
Each of you could answer me that the model of international relations followed by China is much more balanced and respectful of the interests of its partners than the rapacious systems implemented by Westerners starting from Colonialism up to the present day and this is certainly true. On the other hand, China, apart from a few decades, has always been a very great power, which is why the Chinese know much better than the crude and childish Americans how to manage effectively and lastingly a system of international relations in which they represent the main player.
The current international scenario which – more apparently than concretely – is dominated by a decadent power like the United States which, too often acts as a “played boxer” and creates only a great confusion, plays in the interests of Russia.
Mr. Putin has accomplished a historic feat by rescuing his country from the profound crisis following the collapse of the USSR, but he still has a titanic undertaking ahead of him: he must grow the Russian economy at a very fast pace (otherwise the present military advantage sooner or later risks waning: the Chinese do not have a military industrial complex as expensive as it is ineffective as the American one) and – it is the face of the same coin – he must solve the demographic problem: Russians are too few to compete with nations that have up to 10 times the number of inhabitants.
If I remember correctly, a few days ago, Dmitry Orlov illustrated to us how Russian society, with its settled system of values, could become a model for decadent Western society: I agree with him, but surely this is one possible development – a perspective -, at this very moment this idea borders on madness.
Probably, in a few years, the European youth, after a few cold winters with heaters that work in fits and starts and with the American ally/master increasingly distant and gripped by his ever growing internal problems, could see the situation differently and abandon the current ruling class educated, for over seventy years, to faithfully obey the great ally regardless of the interests of their own nation. In this case, Russia would effectively become the leader of the western part of the heartland and in this way it could play its role as the absolute protagonist of the twenty-first century. I do not believe that the sudden collapse of the Western world would favor this perspective, rather a gradual change would be needed.
For the rest, the current confrontation between the United States and Russia seems to be the umpteenth revival of the centuries-old Anglo-Saxon policy of forming alliances against the most powerful continental nation, creating problems at the borders: this action seems to me, however, to be completely devoid of a concrete objective to be achieved not only from a military point of view but above all from a political perspective.
Sorry for the length of the comment
What I still fail to understand after so many years of watching developments in Russia, why does Russia not try to alleviate its demographic problem by letting in more immigrants? Especially after nearly two years of Covid restrictions with no end in sight, there must be so many people who have skills and are socially acceptable, i.e. non-woke, and are so totally pissed off by what’s going on in their countries, that many of them ought to be willing to attempt a new start in country that’s more traditional and generally amenable to them. That would depend on Russia not going down the same path of restrictions that’s taken elsewhere, of course, about which there is reason to be pessimistic given the green pass system that’s apparently being implemented there. Yet Russia has a history of letting in immigrants to settle in its lands dating back at least to the reign of Catherine the Great. So why is Russia not taking this route again, as cultural refugees from the West ought to have the potential to become some of the most hard-working and loyal citizens? As a welcome side effect, just like it would strengthen Russia, immigration of skilled people from the West would simultaneously weaken Western adversaries of Russia.
My understanding of the situation within Russia, based on Russian contacts, is that there WAS a shortage of manpower relative to needs but this has largely been filled with Ukrainians who moved to Russia, either permanently or temporarily, particularly after 2014. The advantage was the immediate availability of immigrants speaking Russian and thus immediately able to assimilate. These immigrants were also able to find apartments easily, since the available stock of empty housing is still larger than the current population. Whilst at first it would certainly seem useful to the Russian economy, to have some non-Slavic immigrants in terms of bringing in skill-sets developed in the West, the ability to absorb non-Russian speakers is obviously slowed by the need for them to learn the language….secondly whilst there was never a wide antagonism/suspicion towards western Europeans, the activities of European politicians have certainly created some caution as to whether it is a good policy to allow more immigration from Europe. Business visitors who stay only for a few years are not a problem and are welcomed …(but not staffing for NGOs…that is now strictly filtered) . The numbers wanting to emigrate to Russia are also relatively small, since it is a major step relative to the ‘comfort-zone’ built up within Europe for many years…even if the offer of land and the potential to benefit from this offer, is quite promising… and climate would play a role…. It would be interesting to hear from Russians on this blog, how they view this issue.
But did Putin not recently speak of Russia being too empty? He is probably not alone with this opinion among Russians but how widespread is it? It would really be nice if Russians on this forum could comment on the issue.
A « death cult »: right ON TARGET Saker.
But as many people know « Biden » does NOT have the nuclear football, only plastic color Toys r’Us children’s toy keys. At a deeper level, the Q level of forces « nuclear and beyond », there are cooler heads, and cooler heads shall prevail. The real Commander in Chief may very well have a deal with the Russians; I am of those who think there WAS something inside that soccer ball in Helsinki…
When old friends have a common enemy they help each other.
Russia helped the USA during its first Revolution, they will help her in the Second, the silent and covert revolutionary war to get rid of the Cult and de-capture the country by collapsing the Empire.
In any case we all request God’s intervention and His protection.
In the end #GodWins, #TheDeathCultLoses
In other words
The USA is NOT at war with Russia
It is at War with the Cult
It’s clear that any full out invasion into areas outside the Donetsk and Lugansk republics bears political risks far too serious and wide-ranging to make any such an option feasible. On the other hand, just keeping the status quo, even if it’s augmented by extending a somewhat firmer security umberella over these republics, risks allowing the West to continue engaging in salami slice tactics, leading to Ukraine’s natoization regardless. Just recently, Estonia has announced that it may deliver howitzers to Ukraine, howitzers that it once received used from Western NATO countries including Germany. These countries have to be asked for approval but considering how the new government in Berlin has already positioned itself vis-a-vis Russia, approval can be considered a given. So how about this Estonian plan as an example of Western salami slice tactics? “You cannot possible have anything against us delivering used, outdated weaponry to Ukraine, even if it’s heavy artillery, can you?”
It cannot go on like that.
The current plan on the Russians’ part seems to consist of drawing red lines and issuing threats of disproportional responses if these lines are ever crossed. Maybe accompanied by patrolling European and North Atlantic waters with ships and submarines that carry Zircons, and also stationing Zircons on land.
But what if forces in the West disregard the Zircons and seek to test out and undermine Russian red lines? Would Russia be willing to go war over used, outdated howitzers being delivered to Ukraine? If not, then what about a follow-up delivery of modern howitzers and so on?
What Russia needs is a military option that lies in between doing very little and mounting full-out invasion.
So how about his one? It’s to make Ukraine to Russia what Syria is to Israel. The idea would be to carry out strikes into Ukraine without invading it, strikes that would degrade Ukrainian military capabilities and, at the same time, influence the balance of power inside Ukraine in ways favorable to Russia. Given that Russia has the military capabilities by way of its air force, special forces and so on, the main main question would still be, how could it be pulled off politically? How could Russia sell strinking Ukraine to the international community, its allies and its own population, maintain escalation dominance in such a scenario, deal with sanctions etc.? The thing is, Ukraine has a weak point that might provide just the right kind of needle’s eye through which a political thread of this kind could be drawn. It’s the obvious, in-your-face Naziism displayed by the Azov battalion, the backbone of Ukraine’s “resistance” to Russia, and also the cornerstone of Maidan dominance over the internal political landscape in Ukraine. Azov is such an out-and-out Nazi outfit, they even fly swastika flags on occasions, like they did when the leader of the German Greens, Robert Habeck, toured the Donbass frontline in the run-up to last year’s elections in Germany.
“You cannot possibly have anything against us taking out a bunch of heavily armed, stability-threatening Nazis, can you?” Western salami sclice tactics would be turned around and directed against the West itself.
The idea would consist of Russia identifying some obvious, verifiable Azov targets and take them out using strike weapons and special forces, without invading and holding any Ukrainian territories, and doing it in a very public way. Any Ukrainian retaliation would have to be dealt with swiftly and decisively, any Western reinforcements be way of weapons deliveries or even troop deployments, would also have to be dealt with in the same way. It would shift the military balance of power decisively, and it would weaken the Maidan forces inside Ukraine materially. This idea is not orginal to this commentator, by the way, it was brought up by Martin Armstrong on his blog. This comment merely eleborates on it.
Could such a course of action not be sold politically to all the goverments and publics involved except Western ones, i.e. to all the government and publics that count? Naziism is regarded as the epitome of evil the world over, and Ukraine is just about the only place in the world where it is allowed to flourish. Western audiences are turning a blind eye to it, of course, and Russia is not making any big noises either, but what if Russia changed that by putting Naziism in the Ukraine at the center of its communications?
The coming winter months present a golden opportunity to strike as Europe is in the throws of an energy crisis that it cannot stave off without Russian gas. Russia striking Azov and Europe not being able to do anything about it either militarily or by stoppig buying Russian gas would get the West and the rest of the world “used” to Russia strinking targets in Ukraine. Russia could go on from that and continue strinking Ukraine as necessary, just like Israel keeps striking Syria, until Ukraine comes to its senses and lasting peace is achieved. Sanctions would still have to be dealt with, but better at a point of time of your own choosing than at a point of time chosen by your enemy.
The french msm ignores, or don’t believe that the new russian weapons can be a strategic gamechanger. Vladimir Putin is described as a bluffer, nostalgic for the USSR without leverage.
Now we’ll just have to wait until news comes out about readers of Le Figaro calling Le Figaro out for this. As I’ve occasionally seen on Yandex News.