[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]
In his recent article “The Road to Damascus: How the Syria War Was Won” Pepe Escobar summarized the outcome of the war in Syria in the following way:
“It’s a quadruple win. The U.S. performs a face saving withdrawal, which Trump can sell as avoiding a conflict with NATO ally Turkey. Turkey has the guarantee – by the Russians – that the Syrian Army will be in control of the Turkish-Syrian border. Russia prevents a war escalation and keeps the Russia-Iran-Turkey peace process alive. And Syria will eventually regain control of the entire northeast.”
This otherwise excellent summary overlooks two out of three members of the “Axis of Kindness”, including Israel and the KSA. Of course, later in his analysis Pepe does address these actors, and also includes Kuwait. Furthermore, a thorough discussion of what took place would have to also include China, Hezbollah, Yemen and the EU (well, the ones that matter, the UK and France. The rest are just voiceless colonies of the USA).
Most of the analyses of what just took place focused on the “what”. I will try to look into the “why” and the “how” of what just happened in Syria. Still, I don’t propose to make such a detailed analysis, but I do want to re-classify the actors in a somewhat different way: by their relative strength.
|The “Axis of Kindness”:
|by far the most powerful actor almost by any measure: a bigger military force then all the other actors combined (at least when looked at regionally), huge economic power (the dollar is still THE #1 currency on the planet), total control of the region (via CENTCOM) and quasi unconditional support from Europe (via NATO). Finally, Israel does pack a powerful military punch. This actor has only ONE weakness, but more about that later.|
|Iran+Hezbollah+Houthi+Shia forces in Iraq||in regional terms, Iran is the local superpower which can even successfully defy the Axis of Kindness forces (and has done so since the Islamic Revolution of 1979).|
|Russia+Syria||I placed Russia and Syria in the same group and I could have added Iran, but since I believe that Russia objectively has more power over the Syrian government than Iran, I think that it is important to put Russia and Syria together simply because Damascus cannot say “no” to Moscow, but could do so, at least in theory, to Tehran. Finally, Russia and Iran agree on the main issues, but have different visions for the future of the Middle-East. Thus this is another reason to look at them separately, even if not necessarily in opposition to each other. In military terms, Russia is very strong, then very vulnerable, then very strong again, it all depends on your level of analysis (see below)|
|Turkey+pro-Turkish factions in Syria||That one is a difficult one to classify. On one hand, Turkey does not have any regional allies (the Ottoman Empire left only hatred and deep resentment in its former colonies). For a while, the pro-Turkish factions, which were liberally showered with weapons, money, training, logistical support, etc, by the US and the KSA, but eventually these factions grew weaker and weaker until they reached a state of advanced impotence leaving Turkey pretty much alone (we will also look into that below).|
|The Kurds||For a while, they sure looked potentially powerful: not only did the Kurds have a pretty big military power (albeit mostly one restricted to infantry), they had the support of Axis of Kindness and, especially, Israel which saw any form of Independent Kurdistan as a great tool to weaken and even threaten Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria. Furthermore, the Kurds happened to control a lot of oil rich regions and they could always retreat in the mountainous areas if needed.|
|The Takfiris (i.e. the many and constantly name-changing franchises of what used to be called “al-Qaeda”).||In reality, the Takfiris really ought to be classified together with the Axis of Kindness since they have been the foot-soldiers/cannon-fodder for the AngloZionist since the 1980s (from Afghanistan then to modern day Syria). Nonetheless, we will consider them as distinct from the rest of the Axis of Kindness forces.|
Of course, and just like any other taxonomy, this one is necessarily somewhat subjective and others might use different criteria or categories. Now let’s look at what I believe is the key to the control of the entire region: the ability to place “boots on the ground” or the lack of such an ability:
|Actor||Ability to place boots on the ground|
|The “Axis of Kindness”:
|This is The One Big Weakness of the Axis of Kindness members: while they have huge armed forces, and even nuclear weapons, while they can deploy numerically very large forces, while they can (arguably) achieve air and naval supremacy/superiority pretty much anywhere in the region, they cannot follow up any of these options with a credible ground force. While this is always carefully obfuscated by the legacy AngloZionist propaganda, the US, Israeli and KSA ground forces are only capable of murdering civilians or primitive resistance forces en masse. But as soon as any of these militaries meets a halfway decent enemy force which is willing to fight on the ground, they are defeated (name me ONE meaningful victory of these Axis of Kindness forces in the last couple of decades or more!).|
|Iran+Hezbollah+Houthi+Shia forces in Iraq||The Iranians and their local allies (calling them “proxies” completely misses the real nature of the relationship between Iran and these regional forces!) are all capable of deploying very capable ground forces. In fact, they have all done so with tremendous success (especially Hezbollah). What Iran provides to this informal alliance is the capability to augment it with new, high-tech and modern weapons, including anti-shipping missiles, air defenses, ATGMs, communications, drones, etc. In terms of ground forces, this alliance is the #1 power in the region.|
|Russia+Syria||Both Russia and Syria have very competent and well-balanced forces deployed in Syria. However, truth be told, I believe that Hezbollah+Iran currently have even more military weight, at least in terms of ground forces in Syria. The thing to keep in mind is this: if only Russian forces existed inside Syria (Tartus, Khmeimin, plus assorted special units all over Syria) then Russia is definitely weaker than the Axis of Kindness. But if we assume that Russian forces outside Syria could (and probably would!) intervene to defend the Russian forces inside Syria, then we would have to flip much of this equation around and categorize Russia as even more powerful than the Axis of Kindness (I will explain in more detail why and how below).|
|Turkey+pro-Turkish factions in Syria||There can be no doubt that at the initiation of the international aggression against Syria, Turkey had a credible and powerful military. Then something went very wrong and with each new development (starting with the coup attempt against Erdogan) Turkey only got weaker and weaker. The country which dared to shoot down a Russian Su-24 eventually found itself in the humiliating position to have to ask for Russian help not once, but over and over again. The latest Turkish invasion of northern Syria has proven that, while the Turks can still beat the Kurds, that’s about all they can do, and even that not very well.|
|The Kurds||Frankly, I never believed in the chances of the Kurds for anything even remotely resembling an independent Kurdistan. Oh sure, my sympathies were often with the Kurds (at least in their struggle against Turkey), but I always knew that the notion of imposing some new (and very artificial) state against the will of ALL the regional powers was both naive and self-defeating. The truth is that the US and Israel simply *used* the Kurds if and when needed, and ditched them as soon as it became obvious that the Kurds outlived their utility. The best the Kurds will ever get is a regional autonomy in Iran, Iraq and Syria. Anything else is a dangerous pipe dream.|
|The Takfiris (i.e. the many and constantly name-changing franchises of what used to be called “al-Qaeda”).||Just like the Turks, the various Takfiris appeared as a formidable force when the aggression against Syria was initiated. And if the the US GWOT appeared to be a true blessing for the “good terrorists” (that’s, of course, all the terrorists in this region) it is because it was. Then something went very very wrong, and now they look as weak and clueless as the Kurds.|
Now let’s sum this up. This is how the relative strength of these regional actors has changed since the initiation of the AngloZionist aggression against Syria:
|Actor||Evolution of strength of each regional power|
|The “Axis of Kindness”:
|DOWN: from strongest to one of the weakest in the region|
|Iran+Hezbollah+Houthi+Shia forces in Iraq||UP: arguably the most balanced military force in the region|
|Russia+Syria||UP: in a process which only *looked* like sheer “good luck” Russia and Syria grew stronger and stronger with each passing year.|
|Turkey+pro-Turkish factions in Syria||DOWN: in sharp contrast to Russia, a weird process of what *looked* like sheer “bad luck” Turkey and its allies in Syria just seemed to get weaker and weaker with each passing year.|
|The Kurds||DOWN: the Kurds made the immense mistake of believing all the empty promises (often called “plan B”, “plan C”, “plan D”, etc.) made by the AngloZionists. Now all their dreams are over and they will have to settle for autonomy inside Iraq and Syria.|
|The Takfiris (i.e. the many and constantly name-changing franchises of what used to be called “al-Qaeda”).||DOWN: their situation is almost as bad as the one of the Kurds. Their sole advantage is that they are not linked to any one piece of land and that they can try to regroup somewhere else in the region (or even the world); never say never again, but it looks to me like this will not happen in the foreseeable future.|
It is now time to try to make sense of all this and try answer the question of why one group of relatively strong actors had so much bad luck as to become weaker and weaker, while the weaker became stronger and stronger.
The first thing we need to agree upon is that irrespective of the public posturing, everybody is, and has been, talking to everybody else. This “conversation” could be official and public, or behind closed doors, or even by means of intermediaries and, last but not least, a state version of “body language”: by means of actions which send a message to the other party or parties. Still, while this is certainly true, it is the quality of the communications between the various parties which made all the difference. When, say, Netanyahu or Trump publicly proclaim they they don’t give a damn about anything at all (including international law) and that they reserve the right to threaten or even attack anybody, at any time, for any reason whatsoever, this is a very clear message to, say, the Iranians. But what is that message, really? It says a couple of things:
- Resistance is futile because we are so much stronger than you and therefore
- We don’t give a damn about you or your national interests and therefore
- We are not interested in negotiating with you (or anybody else for that matter). Your only solution is to submit to us
This is really crucial. The USA and Israel have proclaimed their total superiority over the entire planet and, specifically, over every single actor in the Middle-East. Furthermore, their entire worldview and ideology is predicated on this very strong sense of military superiority. Ask any Israeli or US American what their countries will do if some coalition of local powers is successful in attacking them: they will reply something along the lines of “we will simply nuke all the friggin’ ragheads and sand-niggers – f**k them!”. This line is always delivered with a tone of absolute finality, a total certitude and the mental equivalent of “’nuff said!”.
Alas, for the Axis of Kindness, this is a completely counter-factual belief. Why?
First, the quick appeal to nukes is an implicit admission that there is something very wrong with the rest of the armed forces of the Axis of Kindness. Furthermore, the real regional powers all understand that it is not in their interest to give the US or Israel a pretext to use nukes. Thus, while, say, the Iranians sure have the means to strike Israel or any one of the many CENTCOM facilities in the Middle-East, they have been very careful to keep their counter-attacks below the dangerous threshold in which the legacy AngloZionist corporate media would be unable to conceal the magnitude of the disaster and demand that nukes be used (yes, if it comes to that, both the Israeli and the US media will demand nuclear strikes just as they cheered for every war of aggression ever committed by the USA and Israel).
Second, precisely because the US and Israel are unable to have real allies (they only have colonies run by comprador elites), they cannot operate successfully in a multi-lateral kind of relationship with other actors. The contrast between the US/Israel, on one hand, and Russia and Iran, on the other, could not be greater. Both Russia and Iran understand that having real allies is much more advantageous than having puppets. Why? Because in order to convince somebody to become your ally you absolutely have to offer that party something tangible as part of a compromise goal setting. When this is done, the weaker ally feels that it is defending its own interests and not the interests of a patron which might be unreliable or which might even backstab you.
Third, one of the best US experts on the theory of negotiations, Professor William Zartman, wrote in his seminal book “The Practical Negotiator” that
One of the eternal paradoxes of negotiations is that it allows the weak to confront the strong and still come away with something which should not be possible if weakness and strength were all that mattered (…). Weaker parties tend to seek more formal negotiating forums and to strengthen their hand through organizations (…). Weak states can afford erratic or irresponsible behavior more easily than stronger parties, particularly when the rules of regularity and responsibility favor the strong (…). Weak states do best by rewarding stronger states’ concessions rather than than by “hanging tough” and by opening high to indicate needs and to facilitate rewards (…). The tactics of toughness and softness vary according to the strength of the parties: under symmetry, toughness tends to lead to toughness and under asymmetry to softness, with weaker parties following the leader of stronger parties.
There is a lot to unpack here (and there is much more in this book which I highly recommend to everybody!).
First, let’s compare and contrast the Russia and US approaches to creating negotiation fora. The US cooked up the “Friends of Syria” forum which was most remarkable in two unique ways: first, in spite of calling itself “Friends of Syria” this group only contained a who’s who of Syria’s, Iran’s and Russia’s enemies (just like to “Friends of Libya” was a cornucopia of countries hostile to Libya). Secondly, the self-evident (and not really denied) purpose and function of this group was to bypass the UNSC. There is nothing new here, the US has been trying to replace the UN and its role in upholding international law with all sorts of gimmicks including “coalition of the willing” or appeals for a “rules-based international order”. Needless to say, with the possible exception of a few truly dim propagandists, all these tricks are designed to avoid the already existing international fora, beginning with the United Nations. Russia, in contrast, not only used the UN for all its (admitted limited) worth and succeeded in forcing the USA to accept resolutions on Syria (or the Ukraine for that matter) which the US did not want to agree to, but which they could not veto on political considerations. Not only that, Russia also created the Astana peace process which, unlike the US created fantasies, brought together different parties including parties hostile to each other. The most brilliant move of the Russians was to impose on all parties the notion that “those willing to negotiate are legitimate parties whose interests must be considered while those who refused to sit down are all terrorists“. Of course, the many al-Qaeda franchises tried to play the “rebranding game”, but this did not help: you can change names once every 24 hours if you want, but if you ain’t sitting down at the negotiating table you are a terrorist and, therefore, a legitimate target for Russian/Iranian/Syrian attacks. Once the Empire had to accept these terms, backed by a UNSC resolution, it became locked-in in a process which they could only stop by means of a military victory.
And here we come back to the boots on the ground issue. For all its combined military power, the Axis of Kindness does not have a ground force it can put on the ground. Whereas the Syrians, Hezbollah, Iran and Russia very neatly and most effectively (even if informally) agreed to the following assignment of tasks:
- The Syrians will let the Russians reorganize their armed forces, especially a few elite units, and slowly, step-by-step liberate their lands.
- The Iranians and Hezbollah will act like a fire-brigade and will directly support the Syrian operations with their own forces in crucial sectors of the line of contact.
- The Russians will take control of the Syrian airspace and provide the Syrians, Iran and Hezbollah protection from AngloZionist missile and bomb strikes. Finally, Russian special operation forces will be engaged in high priority operations which are beyond Iranian or Hezbollah capabilities.
What was the biggest obstacle to the Syrian-Iranian-Hezbollah-Russian plans?
Turkey, of course. The Turks have always hated Assad (father and son) and their Neo-Ottoman delusions still give them a, shall we say, “special desire” to intervene beyond their own borders. Furthermore, Turkey also very much saw Syria as a contributing factor to their “Kurdish problem”. Finally, Turkey did have the kind of military which made it possible for it to threaten intervention or even intervene in Iraq and Syria (obviously not against Iran). Thus, what Russia needed to do was take Turkey out of the equation or, at least, weaken Turkey as much as possible. And that is exactly what Russia did.
For the Kremlin the shooting down of the Su-24 was tantamount to a declaration of war. Except that the Russians, quite aware of their relative weakness if compared to the US+NATO+CENTCOM+Turkey, wisely decided not to retaliate in kind and, say, strike Turkish military facilities. But Putin did promise “you won’t get away with just not selling us tomatoes” (Russia imposed an embargo on a number of Turkish export goods). Besides a number of political and economic sanctions, you can be sure that the Russians decided to use all their methods and means to weaken and destabilize both Erdogan personally and Turkey as a whole. Then, here is what happened:
- On November 24th, 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24
- In the next days, Russia closed down the north Syrian airspace, severed all contacts with the Turkish military, promised to shoot down any other Turkish aircraft attacking any target in Syria (regardless from what airspace) and imposed political and economic sanctions.
- In December Putin ominously declared “Если кто-то думает, что, совершив подлое военное преступление: убийство наших людей — они отделаются помидорами, или какими-то ограничениями в строительной и других отраслях, то они глубоко заблуждаются” (“if somebody thinks that by committing a vile war crime they will get away with tomatoes or some type of restrictions in the construction and other industries, they are profoundly mistaken“).
- In June 2016, Erdogan sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin expressing sympathy and ‘deep condolences’.
- On 15 July 2016, a coup d’état was attempted against Erdogan and almost cost him his life. By all accounts, Russia played some kind of behind-the-scenes role and saved Erdogan’s life and power.
- Following the failed coup, Turkey embarked on a major re-alignment and cast its lot with Russia and Iran, even if that meant having to accept Assad in power in Syria.
What exactly Russia did behind the scenes (versions range from warning Erdogan to actually using Russian special forces to evacuate him in extremis) will probably remain a secret for many years, but neither does it really matter. All we know for sure, is that after the coup, Erdogan made a 180 and completely changed his tune. My personal belief is that the Russians used their covert means to entice the US and its Gulenist CIA puppets to try to overthrow Erdogan only to then foil their coup attempt. I find the two other main options (the US is fantastically stupid and incompetent and Russia is an amazingly lucky country) much harder to believe. But even if we accept these options, or some combination thereof, Russia still superbly played her cards (by, for example, using the pretext of Turkey’s downing the Su-24 to strongly beef up Russian air defense capabilities in Syria) and Turkey was removed as a “powerful hostile actor” from the Russian equation of the Middle-East.
After that, what was left was only a kind of “political and military mopping-op operation.
Russia repeatedly tried to make the Kurds realize that their strategy of fighting every single neighbor they had was a non-starter which will inevitably backfire. Alas for the Kurdish people, their leaders were either too delusional, or too corrupt, to understand this. In the meantime, Erdogan and the rest of the Turkish political establishment were adamant they Turkey would under no circumstances allow the Syrian (or Iraqi) Kurds to ever establish their own state.
[Sidebar: I really feel sad for the Kurds, but I also have to say that they really did it to themselves. This ought to be systematically studied, but their appears to be two kinds of small nations: those who are smart enough to play one big neighbor against the other while collaborating with both (say Kazakhstan or Mongolia) and then there are those who have no sense of history at all and who end up repeating the same mistakes over and over again like, say, the Poles or the Kurds. These nations always have a bloated sense of self-worth which leads them to act as if they were the big guys on the block and every time all they achieve is alienating all their truly big neighbors. Apparently, irrespective of the number of times these folks were smacked down by others in history, their narcissistic self-aggrandizement and, frankly, arrogance, gets them invaded, then invaded again and then invaded some more. You could say that they are born losers or that they “failed to learn the lessons of history”. Same difference, really]
For the Kremlin, the solution was obvious: use the Turks to force the Kurds to accept the inevitable but don’t let the Turks establish a permanent invasion force in northern Syria.
True, the Russians have voiced their rather flaccid disapproval of the Turkish operation and they called everybody to come back to the negotiation table. This is one rather rare example in which Russia’s rhetoric did not match her actions because in reality the Turkish operation would have been absolutely impossible if the Russians had not given Ankara an unofficial, but very trustworthy, go ahead beforehand. Furthermore, according to at least one report (which I find reasonably credible) the Russian Aerospace Forces even scrambled a pair of Su-35S to engage a Turkish pair of F-16 which, as soon as they saw what was about to happen, decided to make a run for their lives. Yet, in other instances, we know for a fact that F-16’s were used against Kurdish targets. It is pretty clear that the Russians not only told Erdogan what was acceptable and what was not, they also “fine tuned” the Turkish operation just so it would force the Kurds to negotiate while not making it possible for the Turks to establish any kind of meaningful presence in northern Syria.
What happened next was a domino effect. The Kurds tried to fight as best they could, but everybody realized that they were doomed. The US Americans, very predictably and, I would argue, very logically, also ran for their lives. Trump used this (totally true, but nevertheless pretext) to get out of Syria (at least officially) not only to protect US lives, but to also get out of the political quicksand which Syria has become for the Axis of Kindness.
Last but not least, the Israelis were absolutely livid, and for good reason: there is no doubt that they are the biggest losers in this entire process and they now find themselves in the situation of depending on a pretend superpower which cannot deliver anything of value (except loads of dollars which the Israelis spend on a lot of useless hardware). The recent events in the region have not only shown that US ground forces plainly suck, they have also show that US guarantees are worthless while US weapons systems are vastly over-rated.
Here we come to what I believe is the single most important development of this conflict: ALL the many Israeli plans for the region collapsed one after the other. Most pathetically, all the trips Netanyahu made to Russia to try to con the Russians into taking Israel seriously have failed. Why? Because the Russians have long understood that Israel is a paper tiger with impressive “roar” (aka the massive international Zionist propaganda machine known as the “western free media” among infants and dull people) but who is unable to follow up its loud roaring with anything more tangible. Yes, I know, the worse things go for the Israelis, the bigger their boastful propaganda becomes: after having promised that the “invincible IDF” conducted “hundreds” of strikes in Syria and Iraq they now make noises about having a “killing list” which includes Hassan Nasrallah. Right. As for their “hundreds” of airstrikes, they must be the most inept and poorly executed air campaign since the total failure of NATO’s air campaign in Kosovo. Ask yourself this basic question:
If the Israelis have been conducting “hundreds” of airstrikes in Syria – why have they not resulted in any tangible effects on the military situation on the ground?
After all, when the Russians intervened, they changed the course of the entire war. In fact, the (very small) Russian Aerospace task force in Syria reversed the course of that war.
Why did the Russian air campaign yield such truly phenomenal results and why did the Israel air campaign yield absolutely nothing (except some much needed psychotherapy for the many Zionists who suffer form what Gilad Atzmon brilliantly referred to as “pre-traumatic stress disorder”)?
The answer is simple: one was a real military campaign while the other was just “feel good” PR.
A very good example of Zartman’s thesis that “Weak states can afford erratic or irresponsible behavior more easily than stronger parties, particularly when the rules of regularity and responsibility favor the strong” can be found in the relative position of, on one hand, Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis and, on the other, the US and Israel. Not that Iran or its allies have acted irresponsibly, they have not, but when they reacted, it was always with a double message: we don’t want war, but we are ready for it. But when the US engages in rather crude threats (just think of all the silly threats Trump has made during his presidency, including the most recent ones to wage war on Turkey if needed, not a joke, check here), these threats always end up further weakening the USA. It is a true blessing for Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrians that their enemies are not only so inept, but also so good at cornering themselves in the worst kind of situations. In the end, the US still managed to lose face, even if you were never told about it. What do I mean?
Just look at what just took place: Trump sent Erdogan such a crude and rude letter (he sounds like a 10 year old), which was so insulting to Erdogan that he not only tossed it in the trash bin, but he also made sure to tell his aides to “leak” to the media how Erdogan treated Trump’s silly threats and insults. Turkey also launched a full-scale invasion and clearly challenged the USA to do something about it. At this point, the two other “geniuses” in the White House (Pompeo and VP Pence) had to scramble to Ankara in what was clearly a desperate “damage control” mission, beg for a meeting, and then beg the Turks to agree to an entirely symbolic ceasefire which gave just enough time for the Kurds to agree to all the Syrian terms and to let the Syrian army take control of huge swaths of land without firing a single shot. Now here is the beauty of it all:
Pompeo and Pence demanded that Erdogan agree exactly to the kind of balanced outcome the Russians have been advocating all along! I am amazed that the Dem-media has not accused Pompeo and Pence of being Russian agents because what they just “demanded” and “obtained” from Turkey is exactly what Putin wanted :-)
Of course, this was all wrapped in all sorts of threats and promises to wipe out this or that country (including Turkey, a NATO member state which could, in theory, invoke Art 5 and ask NATO to defend it against the USA! Of course, this would not happen as this would mark the end of NATO) and all the rest of the obligatory barking we always hear from the US when the “best military in world history” fails to achieve anything at all (even if Trump seriously claims that the US – not Russia – defeated the Takfiris the West has so lovingly been federating, supporting, I strongly believe, directing them for decades). Yes, Trump did the right thing when he declared that he wanted the US forces out of Syria, but let’s not be naive about that either: he did not order that because he is some great humanitarian, but because if the Turks, the Kurds, the Syrians or anybody else had taken a hard shot at the US forces in the region, this would have resulted in a bigger war which would certainly cost Trump his presidency.
Which brings us to the Russian task force in Syria. As I said, it is strong, then weak and then strong again. It all depends on your assumptions:
If we look just at the Russian task force in Khmeinim and Tartus, we see that it is protected by cutting edge Russian weapons systems including S-400s, Su-34s, Su-35S, EW stations, battle management stations, etc. This is more than enough to beat back a pretty powerful missile and/or bombing strike. In this case we can think of the Russian task force in Syria as very powerful and capable of dealing with many types of attack.
On the next level, however, it becomes obvious that the biggest weakness of the Russian task force in Syria has been, from day 1, its very small size. Irrespective of its sophistication, the Russian air defenses can be over-run by a determined attack by any combination of Axis of Kindness forces simply because at the end of the day, air defenses are always a part of a numbers game. Even in the best of cases, one Russian air defense missile can only engage one attacking missile or aircraft. For an attack to be successful, all the Axis of Kindness forces need to do is calculate how many missiles the Russians have, then shoot about 1.5x that number of (rather antiquated) Tomahawks, and once the Russians use up their stores, follow up with a second wave of missiles, this time modern and difficult to target ones. At this point the Russians would have to reply with only their AA artillery and their EW capabilities. Inevitably, there will come a point when they will be overwhelmed. In this scenario, Russia is the weaker party and the Russian task force is doomed in case of a sustained US/NATO/CENTCOM attack.
Finally, there is a third level which the AngloZionists have to consider: the Russians have made it pretty clear that in case of an attack on the Russian task force in Syria, Russia will use her strategic striking capabilities to protect her task force. Such measures could include: long range cruise missile attack and air strikes (possibly coming from the Iranian airspace). In this case, as my friend Andrey Martyanov explained many times, including in his article “Russia’s Stand-Off Capability: the 800 Pound Gorilla in Syria” which he concluded by the follow words:
“This simple, single operational fact shows precisely why for two years a relatively small Russian military contingent has been able to operate so effectively in Syria and, in fact, dictate conditions on the ground and in the area of its operations. The answer is simple—many adrenaline junkies are lowered in a cage into the water to face sharks, with only metal rods separating them and sharks’ deadly jaws. Yet, up there, in the boat one can always put a man with a gun which can be used in case of emergency to a deadly effect should the cage give. The Russian military contingent in Syria is not just some military base—it is the force tightly integrated with Russian Armed Forces that have enough reach and capability to make anyone face some extremely unpleasant choices, including the fact that it is Russia, not the US, who controls escalation to a threshold and that can explain a non-stop anti-Russian hysteria in US media since the outcome of the war in Syria became clear”
Here, again, we have the same stance as Iran’s: we don’t want war, but we are ready for it. One could say that the US stance is the polar opposite: we do want war (heck, we *need* it for political and economic reasons!), but we are completely unprepared for it (including psychologically).
Conclusion: remember all those who are now proven wrong!
Remember all the folks who predicted with absolute confidence that Russia was “selling out” Syria? They began their tune when Russia prevented a US attack on Syria by catching the US at its word and offering to remove all chemical weapons from Syria. Not only were these weapons useless, they were a prefect pretext for the Axis of Kindness to strike Syria. The US was livid, but had to accept. Well, all the “Putin/Russia is/are selling out” Syria immediately claimed that Russia was disarming Syria to make it easier for Israel to attack.
Yet, in reality, no (meaningful) Israeli attack ever materialized.
Then the same folks claimed that Russia “allowed” Israel to strike Syria, that the Russians turned off their S-300s/S-400s, etc, etc, etc.
Yet, in reality, the US pretty much gave up, while the Israelis claimed “hundreds” of sorties. Maybe they even did hit a few empty and therefore unprotected buildings, who knows?
Then there was the massive choir of trolls declaring that Russia would partition Syria. Yet, for all the convincing sounding arguments (at least to those who did not understand Russia or the Middle-East), one by one the various “good terrorists” strongholds fell to the Syrian military. Now more Syrian land has been liberated than ever before. As for the Turks, they can dream on about a bigger Turkey or about creating some kind of security/buffer zone, but they understand that they cannot do that if Russia and Syria both oppose this. In fact, Turkey has officially promised to respect the territorial integrity of Syria (see here, in Russian)
Memorandum of Understanding Between Turkey and the Russian Federation
The key elements of this MoU are
- USA out, Russia in
- Syria’s borders cannot be changed
You can see the full press conference of Putin and Erdogan by clicking here.
Finally, this is the reaction of one of the worst AngloZionist propaganda outlets in Europe:
“Die Kapitulation des Westens” (The Capitulation of the West).
I can’t say that I disagree with their conclusion :-)
Finally, does this “capitulation talk” not remind you of something else we have all seen recently?
Yes, of course, the Ukronazi “Ні капітуляції!” (no to the capitulation!).
Again, what does all that talk of “capitulation” strongly suggest?
If this is not a triumph of Russian diplomacy then I don’t know what this is!
And, just for those who disagree, let me throw in a rhetorical question:
If Putin is such a loser who “sells out” everything and who works with/for Israel and for Netanyahu specifically, if Russia is so weak and clueless, why is it that it is not the Russian people who are denouncing a “capitulation” but, instead, why are all the enemies of Russia freaking out about capitulating?
And now, where do we go from here?
Actually, I am very cautiously optimistic since there is a huge difference between Russia and the USA: the USA needs constant wars simply in order to survive, whereas Russia needs peace to flourish. Now that the Russians are the biggest player in the Middle-East (well, with the Iranians, of course), they will use the fact that they have pretty good relationships with everybody, including (former?) enemies of Russia like the KSA or the UAE.
Of course, there shall be no peace between Israel and the rest of the Middle-East, if only because by its very nature Israel is a mortal threat to every country in the region, even for countries which currently eagerly collaborate with Israel (like the KSA). The only way for the long suffering Middle-East to finally live in peace again would be for the Zionist “occupation regime over Jerusalem to vanish from the arena of time” to use the famous, and often mistranslated, words of Ayatollah Khomeini. The current Iranian Supreme leader also clearly spelled out the only manner in which the Palestinian question can be solved peace will be achieved in the Middle-East:
“The Islamic Republic’s proposal to help resolve the Palestinian issue and heal this old wound is a clear and logical initiative based on political concepts accepted by world public opinion, which has already been presented in detail. We do not suggest launching a classic war by the armies of Muslim countries, or throwing immigrant Jews into the sea, or mediation by the UN and other international organizations. We propose holding a referendum with [the participation of] the Palestinian nation. The Palestinian nation, like any other nation, has the right to determine their own destiny and elect the governing system of the country.”
Both Iranian leaders are absolutely correct. There shall never be peace in the region as long as a crazed racist regime which has only contempt for the rest of the planet continues its slow motion genocide of the indigenous population of Palestine.
In the meantime, now that Syria, Russia, Iran, the Houthis, Hezbollah and the Shia forces in Iraq have successfully shown Uncle Shmuel the door out of Syria, the last Israeli plan (a “plan Z” perhaps) has now collapsed along with any hopes of creating an independent Kurdistan.
Israel is in no condition to take on such a powerful coalition. I would argue that even the US cannot win against this force, even if it still is capable of triggering a bloodbath (just like the Israelis did in 2006).
Of all the strategic collapses we have seen under the Obama and Trump presidencies, the loss of influence in the Middle-East is probably the biggest one of them all. This is a very positive development for the region and for the world. Now let’s just hope that whoever makes it into the White House in 2020 will understand that this is a done deal and will not try to make “the Empire great again” and reverse that course as any such attempts will result in a major regional war.
PS: here is a video of the “best military in history” being pelted by stones and veggies by disgusted Kurds while the US forces evacuate in a hurry. Really says it all, doesn’t it? Feel the love ;-)
It also appears that the same sentiment is shared by the Iraqis who are now trying to take legal action to finally also give the boot to Uncle Shmuel, see here: https://www.rt.com/news/471645-iraq-pleads-un-help-us-troops/
Again, feel the love, the respect and the (lack) of fear :-)
Nice analysis. The outcome was hoped for all along and it seemed possible all along, but was never a ‘done deal’ considering all the many players and the chances someone would do something really stupid, except for I-F-UK-US, who regularly did really stupid things. Perhaps they should read The Saker more often.
Seeing this analysis from The Saker, whom I consider one of the most-confirmed-by-subsequent-events-as-true analysts of geostrategic conflicts, I am delighted to find that he is saying everything that I already believe to be true regarding the conflicts in Syria. However, he does not mention the Tehran Agreement, on 9 September 2018, which I described the next day, (see http://archive.is/1pxcy ) which was even before it became announced to the world. When I wrote on September 10th about that agreement, — or more precisely should say that when I wrote there what I was hoping that it would be and would consist of — I was describing the way that I thought that Putin could engineer a win of the Syrian conflict, and could nullify the U.S. and UN propaganda and nullify Trump’s threat to intensify the war. He did it then. It seems to me to have been the death-knell for the U.S.-and-allied war against Syria. Do you agree, that that was a crucial moment in the history of this conflict?
If you are referring to this agreement: http://www.mfa.gov.tr/iran-rusya-turkiye-ortak-aciklamasi_en.en.mfa
Then yes, of course it was important. But no more important, at least in my opinion, then the many other agreements between the various parties (Russia, Turkey, Iran, Syria). Each step was a step in the right direction, but the sudden effect (which is what a “catastrophe” can mean) of today’s news is MUCH bigger: what we are witnessing is a STRATEGIC collapse for the AngloZionist Empire and a STRATEGIC victory for Russia which, from now on, will play the leading role in shaping the future of the Middle-East.
Frankly, just like you, I was expecting such an eventual collapse, but the speed and magnitude of what just happened did surprise me.
Now, of course and by definition, the idiots in DC can trigger some kind of violent strike or even a full scale war, but if Trump okays such an idea, he will lose the White House for sure.
So, very UNcharacteristically, I am rather optimistic, at least for Syria.
The poor Ukraine, on the other hand, is in for a lot of pain with no hope in sight…
Kind regards and thank you for your kind words.
No, that’s not it. The agreement was reached on September 9th and concerned the formation of a DMZ around Idlib. That was the decisive moment in the war.
When I wrote that 10 September 2018 article (though not knowing that any such agreement had been made), I was hoping that this is what Putin would do. Turkey was assigned the role of policing Idlib. A week later on 17 September 2018, I did a follow-up report ( http://archive.is/4sfza ). The U.S. and NATO were still threatening. So, it was now a waiting-game. That would be a losing game for the U.S.-NATO side. During the following weeks, it became clear that this was the case; and, so, Trump and NATO had no option but to quit. The decision wasn’t the one that Trump made, but instead the one that Putin had made on September 9th, and which was concurred-in by both Erdogan and Rouhani. That seemed to settle the victory for Syria and for Russia. Then, on 14 July 2019, I headlined “Turkey Will Get a Chunk of Syria” ( http://archive.is/3uxpU ), and reported that Erdogan was trying to take advantage of its position as the policeman for Idlib, in order to seize and keep Syrian territory. But, again Putin made the principled and wise decision: he said no to that. And Turkey accepts this decision. Syria wins. Putin did it. In effect, Turkey is now allied with Russia. It’s the first NATO country to do that. This is history being made, on a large scale.
But, again Putin made the principled and wise decision: he said no to that. And Turkey accepts this decision. Syria wins. Putin did it. In effect, Turkey is now allied with Russia. It’s the first NATO country to do that. This is history being made, on a large scale.
Yes! We fully agree on that!!
History was made today, and the future Middle-East will be defined by this outcome!
What a huge victory for the forces resisting imperialism!
You, and the anonymous German intelligence analyst who writes the “Moon of Alabama” blog, have been my main teachers. I have never yet seen any disagreement between the two of you; and both of you have unflawed predictive-accuracy records, so far as I am aware (and none other does).
yes, ‘b’ on Moon of Alabama is a very good analyst indeed,and Moon of Alabama is definitely an excellent site to visit for info!
Thanks for this meeting of the minds. This reinforces my faith in both Eric Z and the Saker as well as BillMon, the Moon of Alabama. But I’m still pretty suspicious about Erdogan’s ultimate goals and motives, but I think Putin seems to be able to lead him by the nose most of the time since July of 2016. But Erdo seems set in his Neo-Ottoman ways, particularly regarding his wonderful “Syrian National Army” which seems like an entire army of moles being deposited in the lap of Syria’s “oil country.” Also the number of Uighurs and ethnic Turks found among ISIS and other Takfiris in Syria has been troubling.
Have conditions or a timeline been made for Turkish withdrawal from Syrian territory? Are they public or confidential? To those of us watching from a distance, we can only wonder how Putin persuades or coerces Erdogan, but again Saker has talked about the process by which Putin converts enemies to neutrals, neutrals to partners and partners to allies to foster these win-win situations. This week seems like a watershed in post- Cold War history!
I would say that V.V. Putin knows where Turkey’s weak points are, and has the means to hit them if Erdogan goes too far off-message.
Yes, you could be right, Eric.
While the Saker is every bit as correct; their was an architectural planning, and building constructs, to this possibility; every significant construct in the building was incredibly shrewd and constructive, we can clearly see by the progression, no room for random chance in the alignment of the foundations to this event (which looks like it could be enduring, though there seems like there could yet be some messiness in the oil fields, and … the stuff brewing in Iraq).
But, there is always the moment of the kill, like in bull-fighting, when the knife finds the large artery, and in our arena under discussion, the creation of this win-win-win-win scenario was that thrust!
Think of the empire’s media trashing the man, in the context of almost, if not every leader of the empire districts!?
Pathetic, and obviously not reporting on the facts.
Thanks for all the chuckles,
and to our gracious host as well,
“Pompeo and Pence demanded that Erdogan agree exactly to the kind of balanced outcome the Russians have been advocating all along!”
I am not surprised. December 1972: the Christmas bombing of Hanoi (Operation Linebacker II) was said to “force Hanoi to sign the Paris agreement” (Jan 1973). The signed version of the agreement was exactly the same (almost up to the coma) than the version Hanoi and Washington already agreed to in October 1972 and that Kissinger had difficulty to have Thieu (Saigon) on board. The bombing (killing) only delayed the signature by 3 months. But the “free world” presented it as Nixon’s forcing Hanoi to sign the document …. they already agreed to earlier.
Surprised with the United-Statians’ “logic” anyone???
Great and acute analysis. Btw, who the heck is this guy, the author?
It is great on the one hand, when a methodical reasoning confirms some of your personal impressions … and on the other covers and paves your gap list of question marks.
Yes, I also find the analysis very good, except the Turkey part.
In my opinion the Russian “Eurasian sovereignists” and the Turkish “Eurasian sovereignists” have been natural allies since Putin and Erdogan at about the same time took over the leadership of their countries.
And since 15 July 2016, when the Turkish people stopped NATO’s coup d’état attempt and the Turkish “Eurasian sovereignists” purged the Atlanticists and NATO’s shadow government, Turkey and Russia have become main allies.
Now Turkish “Eurasian sovereignists” (such as Ibrahim Kalin or Ibrahim Karagül) have pretty much declared war on their North Atlantic Terror Organization “allies” and the US,and Israel, and a rising Anatolia cooperating with Russia (e.g. the S-400s protecting Turkey against NATO) and together with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces stopped the AngloZionists’ major Israel 2.0 project.
(it’ll probably take some time to get the Western imperialists and their terrorist proxies out of Syria and Iraq altogether, but the Turks, Russians, Syrians, jointly taking control of a major zone along the Turkish-Syrian border and the Aleppo – Mosul highway is a very well thought out and big step in the right direction)
I guess your reasoning is right that the influence of Turkish “Eurasian sovereignists” is dominant. However the two names that you have provided are people with roots in political islam and are part of Erdogan’s political party. The real Turkish “Eurasian sovereignists” are rather a small but quite effective patriotic group called “nation-state sovereignists” with deep roots in the Kemalist (Mustapha Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkish Republic) movement. Many of the leaders of this group were imprisoned during 2011-2014 by the Gulenist (an influencial CIA establishment in the middle east and euroasia) and included Army officers (colonels and generals) and politicians. The party called “Vatan” (Motherland party) with its leader D.Perincek is one of them. Erdogan had no choice but ally with patriotic forces against the Atlantic in order to survive the putsch against him and afterwards. Those two names that you have mentioned are just the parakeets of the Erdogan’s ruling party. The real “Eurasian sovereignists” force are the patriotic front as mentioned above.
The reason why the Outlaw US Empire seeks to circumvent the UNSC and UN in general is due to its mistake in ratifying the UN Charter in the first place which restricted what up to then had been its usual prerogative to act unilaterally–a term euphemized as Isolationism (the so-called era of Isolationism between the first and second world wars was filled with US Imperialism of the usual sorts, Dollar Diplomacy being the most prominent). The reason the UN Charter is capable of reigning in the US Executive’s unilateral behavior is due to the Supremacy Clause of the US Constitution which makes the UN Charter part of the Supreme Law of the Land–but crucially, this fact has yet to be used to stop US aggression or sanctions or anything else it does in contravention of International Law. Why a legal challenge charging the unconstitutional nature of economic sanctions, for example, hasn’t been attempted is a mystery to me.
The fun part will be watching how the internal reality of the zionist settler entity goes through internal political changes in response to all of this. Saker has it down. Israel is the super loser here and their reaction is going to be uber interesting. A rabid mad dog with nowhere to turn perhaps? Particularly seeing as Nut en yahoo is having his own loser moment. It is indeed a great day for all. For me it vindicates the wisdom of the American people in electing Trump over Clinton. Go Tulsi!
The USA still ignores or flouts International Law at will. The destruction of Iraq was entirely illegal, with no justificatory UNSC Resolution. What was the USA doing in Syria, entirely illegally with no UNSC Resolution? What is the USA’s used of extra-territorial lawfare but an affront to the real International Community? What are the NED, IRI, IDI, USAID, Amnesty International etc but regime change meddlers that interfere in countries internal affairs everywhere? I could go on forever. The USA is the rogue nation without compare, and self-deludingly arrogant and presumptuous to boot.
I may be mistaken, but I think that it was Roosevelt who wanted to end colonialism and hegemony, along with is democratic socialist vice president, Henry Wallace, who supported the UN Charter.
What followed was an internal coup of the Democratic leadership (same people as the Clintonites and Cold War/Hot War Democrats), who scuttled Wallace, installed Truman and fairly likely poisoned Roosevelt. They immediate changed course, to continue the path of Empire, Cold War and demonization of Russia/USSR which has been in place for over 100 years, indeed since the Crimean War.
You are somewhat correct in your assessment, but the reality it far more complex and convoluted. Recall that the “UN Charter grew out of the Atlantic Charter and FDR’s 4 Freedoms: “Adherents to the Atlantic Charter signed the Declaration by United Nations on 1 January 1942, which was the basis for the modern United Nations.” Greater understanding of the contemporary mindset can be attained by studying the San Francisco Conference where the final draft of the Charter was made, and 1944’s Dunbarton Oaks Conference where the initial drafting of the Charter was done. Almost all of this very important history is skimmed over at best in standard US History texts–even at the college level.
As might be imagined, there was no way for the USA to not ratify something it was a core member in constructing as the political fallout would’ve been massive. But as I noted in my comment, the Charter totally hamstrung the USA’s normal modus of operation which was 100% unilateral and had been since its inception. Critics of those wanting to keep what unilateralism promoted–America First–were accused of wanting to isolate the nation from the world by not acting in concert with other nations which was the primary argument against ratification of the Versailles Treaty and entry into the League of Nations that embodied Wilson’s 14 Points. To discover FDR’s stance, one needs to closely look at his actions during his time as Assistant Secretary of the Navy from 1913-19 where his outspoken Internationalism can be discerned–a stance that was heavily questioned during the 1932 presidential campaign since an America First stance was demanded by the times as then it was greatly presumed that the reasons for the Depression all originated in Europe and the USA was a victim, which was completely wrongheaded as we know today.
And there’s much more to contemplate. The actors in the 1934 failed Coup were never arrested by FDR and many wormed there way into the government prior to and during WW2. Some comprised the key D-Party actors that circumvented Wallace’s 1944 renomination for Veep and promotion of Truman, and also had their hands on the writing of the legislation made to circumvent the UN Charter–1947 National Security Act that created the CIA and NSA. As I allude to above, this history isn’t deeply looked into at all despite its level of importance.
The Outlaw US Empire began its operations even before the ink was dry on the UN Charter as it began turning captured Gestapo and SS into its own spies and terrorists to infiltrate and destabilize the Soviet zone in Germany, Eastern Europe and the USSR itself. Kolko’s essential Politics of War details the development of Cold War policy while WW2 was ongoing thus providing proof that crucial policy was being developed and implemented that went against FDR’s vision of the future and the stated aims of the war as linked to above.The forces responsible for that I call the Current Oligarchy since its members change over time but continues its anti-Self-government position which arose after the Civil War, while others call it the Deep State. The Outlaw US Empire’s crimes are worse than that of Hitler’s Germany and Tojo’s Japan combined, and they continue on a daily basis. Yes, it’s quest to attain Full Spectrum Dominance just ended in Syria, but there are those who believe that didn’t occur, that there’s still an opportunity, the most obvious being Hillary Clinton, the DNC Corporation and the gaggle of R-Party identifying neocons. But what cannot be omitted is the functional ideology they operate under–Neoliberalism–and to get a handle on that and how it’s all worked since 1945, one must read Dr. Michael Hudson’s Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire, which you can download for free at the link.
The crucial work on the US Empire was being done by the scientists creating the A-bomb in the Manhattan Project, because the USA thought that they would have a lengthy monopoly on ‘The Super’, and at Bretton Woods, where the superstructure for perpetual US economic domination of the world was created, and Keynes et al’s proposals for a more equitable global economic order were crushed. The US Empire has always been primarily one of economic exploitation and pillage, with expeditionary punitive operations for non-compliance occasionally, but usually relying on fascistic local compradores, in the parasite classes and the military, to suppress their own populations, the template for which was established in the Western Hemisphere under the Monroe Doctrine. And then there is the crucial role of ‘soft power’, ie mass brainwashing through Rightwing media, advertising, PR and ‘entertainment’, predominately Hollywood, to paint the USA as moral perfection and the apotheosis of human goodness-a truly grisly inversion of reality.
The only thing left in the end for the AngloZionist Empire will be the use if nuclear weapons.
— And they will use them. —
It is for this reason that there is little hope to be seen in the latest defeats of the Empire.
Hans, cheer up! I think the Houthi have checked the Samson Option: there is no longer any guarantee that the next little country which the AZC plans to Samson has not already been to market and picked up a few bargain basement U$ Army Surplus nuclear bombs with which to arm their cheap home-made missiles.
How many U$ nukes are in Turkey and in other wavering NATZO countries? Where is International Accounting of the hidden nukes in Israel, Sweden, Germany? What about the Islamic nukes in Islamabad? How many trillions of Pentagon goodies have gone missing? With such a corrupt accounting system and such unreliable allies, even a simple use of mini-nukes on “backward ragheads” becomes a questionable option.
As for the Big Bang, the new weapons in Russia guarantee that Real War will come to Uncle $cam in 4 minutes; not just the $cam wars that Uncle has been used to but Real War as Europe has known it. Remember Hitler: he died in a rage because “the rotten no-good German volk” had let him down and surrendered rather than have the whole of Germany burn up in a Gotterdamering holocaust. That is a sobering thought to any potential Samsonite.
The 9th Dan Judo Master has taken down every challenger in the ME.
Threw them each with their own weight and movements.
The ME is his dojo.
I recently read an article on NEO that the AZE is looking for a shaman/ witchdoctor to bewitch Putin! It’s so hilarious it could be true.
Have they never heard of Hillary Clinton?
You mean the Dems candidate for prez in 2020? She’ll run for sure, and try to steal the election again. If she wins, we’re all in very real danger. The woman is mad.
When I contemplate Clinton I see not so much madness but deep and intractable spiritual Evil, personally and as a representative of the ruling US elite.
Very true, Auslander. Mad and bewitching she is. Putin, watch your step!
One would hope that eventually the Israel’s would catch on that their way or the highway might soon come to an end just as they now witnessed the U.S. back down on the defensive aggression(s). The law of # does not discriminate across country’s borders, death by a thousand bombs is just as effective as one at the ready nuke.
I suspect without any particular evidence that the Israeli leadership feel that they have gone so far that they cannot turn back now.
Certainly if the United States did not continue to back Israel to the hilt and act as their enforcers, any international sympathy that Israel might enjoy would evaporate instantly.
While much of what we are witnessing is the death of critical thought in the US and particularly in government, I must take issue with one or two conclusions you have drawn. The US ground forces looked like they “sucked” in the retreat from Northern Syria — they also looked like they sucked in the retreat from Saigon. No soldier’s finest hour. However, to presume from that the “Axis of Kindness” cannot create a significant ” boots on the ground threat” is erroneous. They can.
If you consider that the withdrawal from northern Syria was the culmination of a “power struggle” in Washington, it is not surprising that things looked muddled and stupid. It seems that people were not going to go until it was obvious that the transports were leaving. The other consideration about this event is that the commanders on the ground were getting conflicting signals from their own commanders: it is not surprising that there was confusion on the ground. The Donald says were going and some of the idiots that pass for middle level advisers and officers were saying: “We are not!”
My worry now is that with Israel so angry, the US is going to proceed to engage in warfare with Iran. There is a significant troop concentration in the bases that surround Iran. If the US decides to mollify the Israeli ally with a war with Iran only ground concentrations of troops can pull that off. It ignores both the alliances Iran has made and the fact that there is no “nuclear option”. Notwithstanding the idiot pronouncements that a nuclear war can be won, I fear this will be a quick ticket to nuclear oblivion. Pray with me that this does not happen. The “rapture” will come in its own good time!
There is more than one nuclear war here, because the Turks are armed with US weapons, per the Unz review, and likely to use them at the first opportunity. How easily will a provocation land in their lap? Beyond doubt, traps and snares are already laid, and it’s only sensible to assume that Turkeys invasion is a Syria-plan-C for the Zionists, with the Turks representing a Pandora’s box, an opening of the doors of chaos and invitation to full scale war.
The Turks are not “armed” with nuclear weapons. The US controls those in Turkey, and they will probably not be there long.
Maybe they aren’t even there anymore. I’ve read several rumours, that after Erdogan once cut the power to the Incirlik base, they have been relocated to Romania.
Erdogan has said however, that he wants nuclear weapons. I’m not so sure whether the RF considers this a great idea.
I reckon that Israel might be getting their Kidon hit-squads ready for another wet job in the American colonies.
Snow Leopard puts it well – “Putting boots on the ground is way beyond the political capacity of both Israel and the United States at this point. Fearing this move, in my opinion, is quite unrealistic and unnecessary, as such a gargantuan effort by either imperialist nation would have to be sold politically to a domestic audience to have any hope of succeeding.”
For my part, I suspect that selling the initial war to the public will be easy. However, the salesmen will really have to up their game once the body bags start coming home in large numbers, or an aircraft carrier is sunk, and with no end in sight.
I agree with your analysis on the alliances, I also agree that Iran+Hexbollah+Houthi+Shia in Iraq are playing well by depriving the “Axis of Kindness” a perceived justifiable nuclear strike scenario.
However I’m not as optimistic that the troubles in the Levant could fade anytime soon. I still believe there are enough malevolent morons in the “Axis of Kindness” willing to test “divine entitlement”.
In my opinion (and God knows best) the Axis of Kindness” are hypocrites in a time that is worst for hypocrites, they are using oppression for material gain and power and claiming to be “peace makers”.
Professor Alfred McCoy or Chris Hedges might describe there next potential move as “the last throw of a dying empire” but regardless I believe it’s likely that they’ll put “boots on the ground” if not simply to prove the empire is still potent.
A new “Coalition of the Willing” formed by the “Axis of Kindness” so big its intended purpose will be as bait to draw Iran+Hezbollah+Houthi+Shia forces in Iraq into a final conflict that US logic says they can not loose.
I imagine their military analyst presume this will be the final nail in the Syrian conflict and that it will leave Lebanon vulnerable to attack from the South, and Tehran vulnerable too.
More than ever I still believe the Coalition will see Northern Syria/Southern Turkey as their best place to lay their bait, perhaps on a pretext to counter “Russian Aggression in the region” or too “Neutralise the last bastion of terrorism in the ME” namely the “safe” zone created for their proxy army in Idlib.
The problem I see with any US tactical “assumptions” is, as you pointed out too, the US does not have real allies, it can not make assumptions about who is on their side and what ground they hold, even now.
I presume at some level this is acknowledged by past masters of geopolitical change hence the Zionist proclivity to have a stake in both sides of any conflict, in that case we should also be asking if the US looses their hegemony who wins it?
Allister; Putting boots on the ground is way beyond the political capacity of both Israel and the United States at this point. Fearing this move, in my opinion, is quite unrealistic and unnecessary, as such a gargantuan effort by either imperialist nation would have to be sold politically to a domestic audience to have any hope of succeeding. That is the part that is quite impossible. And if they tried anything uber destructive Israel goes up in flames so it really is a form of strategic checkmate for the forces of darkness. Evil has to make its designs work in the real world and that is the part that is now beyond them, militarily and politically now.
Yes but when the subject exhibits signs of insanity a model based upon rational thinking is not necessarily a good predictor of future behaviour.
Another year or two might tell us more. It’ll be interesting to see who shows up here in NZ for APEC 2021.
But they would still have to make their irrational behavior work on the ground, to be able to put boots on it. That would take rational thinking. It would take rational thinking to be able to tie all the necessary political pieces together. And the American people are way passed supporting it anyway. The madmen are not anywhere near as invincible as they like to have us imagine.
Was this a real loss for the US, or just an apparent one? The Middle East has been like the worst marriage ever for the US and after many disastrous decades, Trump’s Syria “failure” actually looks like the beginning of a welcome and long-overdue divorce. If Russia wants to deal with it now, that seems like a win. Let them get sand in their butts for the next 30 years if they want. The primary concern going forward for the US is going to be trying to manage China, which is something more appropriate to the design of the US military than patrolling dusty villages. Is the apparent ineffectiveness of the US simply a matter of not operating according to their strength? The US does fine with clear objectives and the ability to use overwhelming force, but wars like that are rare. Being stuck in Afghanistan for 18 years with no obvious exit is like driving a Ferrari in Kabul. I’m not sure how Trump gets out of there, but I can bet that Russia has no interest in taking the lead on that one.
The USA has not the right nor the ability to ‘manage China’. It does have mountains of arrogance, hubris and self-delusion, however.
With all due respect, I believe you’re missing the whole point of the differences in US vs Russian objectives in the ME. Where Russia believes in and supports sovereign nations, the US has been all about destroying them. That alone makes the Russian welcome in the places the US could not (and would not want to) “drive their Ferraris”. Russia seems to be talking to (and bringing to the table) various players and, seemingly, to each’s benefit in a sort of win-win scenario that seems substatially more attractive than the (now-outdated) American way of doing business. As to China, same story… and good luck to the US if they think they are up to the task. The World is increasingly observing that this Empire “has no clothes”.
Kevin, no disrespect but the US cannot ‘manage China’. If you follow any of the historians and academics over the last 20 years, you know that China has already overtaken the US in economic importance: its mere size in population and propulsing economic growth (bringing 600 million Chinese out of poverty into middle class) is so disproportionate to the US as to be absolutely unmanageable. In terms of PPP GDP, China surpassed the US many years ago – and purchasing power parity is what matters: what can you do with the money you generate in your own country.
The US’s only chance was to somehow straddle a strategic partnership with Russia (cf. prof. Mearsheimer), combine US-Europe-Russia as a way to counterbalance. They have chosen conflict instead. The innate propensity for war and conflict is likely to deplete the US, but because China is not interested in a suddenly imploding US, we will see the US slowly bleeding.
At best, the US will have leaders who can slow the bleeding. That is very unlikely – that country is so conflicted that decisive leadership is virtually impossible.
Great and brilliant analysis, Saker.
I do not believe that everything is to be so good. Deep State in Washington will not just watch what is going on. They will try to do something for sure to create more mess.
Lebanon-I just saw the first Western presstitute putting Hezbollah right in the ‘regime change’ hairs there, on French TV news.
The US has nuclear weapons and a track record of the willingness to use it just to show who is boss.
Dr. Strangelove is alive and well and lives in the halls of power.
Hope it all ends well.
Saker – I haven’t yet read the whole thing – but you left out an extremely important player in the Axis of Kindness – the UAE – I’ve even heard that Saudi Arabia’s time is nearly over and that the real player behind them is the UAE…which never NEVER gets the light shone on them…I mean – Eric Prince lives there…he’s the worst character of the century isn’t he ?
But I have yet to read the rest of your long article – thanks for all you do…
btw – at my work a couple of days ago I talked with a guy that said you were the best on the Internet and how few people knew that…he was happy that I knew about your work…
Love (in the very best sense of the word)
Thank you for this analysis, I almost came late to work.
Regarding smart/stupid small nations beetween strong/big nations:
For a short period of time (50years period ) ex Yugoslavia under Josip Brioz Tito was good example for smart nation(s) between Warschav pact and NATO. Manouvering beetwen these two enemies and extracting benefits from both of them. In the same time creating/participating in the “Non-aligment movement” with pretty good impact on the world wide scale at the time.
Insignificant but indicative:
see what Tito did visiting a White house in front of Nixon 1971 (go to 3:20 in a clip):
Smoked cuban cigare.
Once more, thanks Saker
Hi Saker – me again – I was wondering if the Operation Peace Spring was right on the border of Syria Turkey or if the Russian police force was in a region between the border and Operation Peace Spring.
The was a great article – thanks for all the time and energy you spend informing us…
And I did see a mention of UAE near the end, and also the time you spent on the awful situation of Palestine – that the Ayatollah has said in very few words – peace will never come to the REGION as long as Palestine doesn’t have its own elected government –
Abbas is awful.
Unfortunately, the war against Syria may not be over.
Trump reportedly plans to keep some American troops in Eastern Syria in order steal the oil there.
The goal is to “prevent Damascus from retaking profitable territory, starving it of natural resources from fossil fuels to basic foodstuffs.”
Essentially, America is doing what it does best–the destruction of a society through economic siege warfare and starvation of the people.
This is truly a sociopathic–but unsurprising–example of America’s vaunted core values in action.
US troops are staying in Syria to ‘keep the oil’ – and have already killed hundreds over it
To this day I still don’t understand why Russia and China don’t have a formal alliance. Can somebody please write about this? I still believe that such a relationship between Russia and China would speed things up and provide us with the results most of us want to see.
The zionazi stooge machine appears to be operating at full capacity now:
‘Interesting Idea’: Broad Support in Denmark to Send European Troops to Syria
“Earlier this week, Germany’s ruling party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), proposed sending a joint European army of 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers to set up a security zone in Syria.
The Danish government is open to supporting Germany’s idea and sending European soldiers to Syria to secure peace at the border with Turkey, Social Democrat Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has stated.
“There is a long way from this talk to making an actual decision, and of course we will engage in dialogue with our allies both in Europe and in particular in NATO, but the idea that Europe should play a more active role seems basically good, maybe even necessary, too”, Mette Frederiksen said, as quoted by TV2.”
The dane zio-quislings are so zio-enchanted they turned their security/intelligence services over to mossad to run. This was exposed in the 1980s.
That israeli colony’s obstruction of Nordstream is part of the same zionazi-gay strategy as their nato occupy Syria nonsense.
You know, get rid of the zio element and probably half of the problems facing Mir will vanish almost overnight.
This idea in Germany was ventilated by Annegret Kamp-Karrenbauer, Defence Minister and foreseen new CDU leader. She is as genderless, clueless and charmless as her name may predict.
Some reactions I heard around me in Germany, behind closed doors:
“Oh, we’re going to enforce something with our troops. Equipped with what, exactly?”
“Great idea. In big cities the centres are in hands of immigrant gangs and no-go areas, but we want to send our troops to Syria to enforce peace.”
“Hey, years ago all or leaders were in favour of ‘regime change’ and ‘Assad must go’ and now they want to aid him? Assad must be so grateful.”
“Did Syria invite us, then? It’s already so crowded there with uninvited warriors.”
I’ll leave it with that ;-)
The Sabbat Goyim won’t be so gung-ho once their troops start returning in body-bags. It does show, yet again, how absolute Zionazi control is of EU politics. Hence also the increasing viciousness of EU attacks on China, the Zionazis’ greatest fear, because they will never control China the way they do the West. And India for that matter.
Putin is not only a master politician but I feel the secret of his success lies in his deep religious belief. This gives him qa’naat (loosely translated as contentment) which helps him remain cool in all circumstances.
He is also a good listener, coupled with an amazing analytical brain. Most of the time his replies and retorts are breathtaking!
Over the years my admiration for his abilities has increased exponentially.
Outstanding article by Saker. Here is my favorite quote:
“The most brilliant move of the Russians was to impose on all parties the notion that “those willing to negotiate are legitimate parties whose interests must be considered while those who refused to sit down are all terrorists“. Of course, the many al-Qaeda franchises tried to play the “rebranding game”, but this did not help: you can change names once every 24 hours if you want, but if you ain’t sitting down at the negotiating table you are a terrorist and, therefore, a legitimate target for Russian/Iranian/Syrian attacks.”
Here is mine:
“you won’t get away with just not selling us tomatoes”
Excellent analysis Saker, thanks.
A few humble additional thoughts:
-This must have been a year or so in the making. The timing is excellent: Trump is busy with hysterical dems, and Israel is in a political stalemate, so the phone calls with orders from Tel Aviv might be silent.
-US troops ‘safeguarding the oil’. Let’s call it what it is: economical blockade. Area is large, troops are limited, surrounded by hostile forces. Now, let’s reverse this. How do those US troops get their supplies? They need fuel to get only their generators running, I guess their airco’s and refrigerators are not of the solar driven type. Over land? That can easily be blocked. Over air? You know how much damage to airstrips can be done nowadays with Houthi drones?
-How long are US troops going to stay in Al-Tanf and for what intriguing tactical reason? Has the commander in Tweet already voiced his insights about that (for what it’s worth)?
-It was stated regularly that the complete Syrian sovereignity has to be reinstated. There’s an elephant in the room, it’s called Golan Heights. I’m curious what can be done about that, because my guess is that the Israelis will never give that up without a war.
Rob, the war is on, right now. Internationaly. It’s called BDS. The Apartheid State, will be brought to heal. And the beauty of the Boycott War………………limits the loss of Palestinian lives.
This is the first war I have followed from beginning to end since my own awakening and it has confirmed for me, without a doubt, the falsity of the empires narrative, the prevalence of zionist influence in the west, the cowardice, avarice and ineptitude of the bastards who represent us (in the west), the dangerous alliance of global corporations and government and most importantly, what can be done when a great man (VVP) rises to the top of a great nation.
What a great result. Yahweh must be pissed.
Sadam and Col. Gaddafi will be high fiveing with JFK, RFK, MLK, and 100 million more of their victims.
I hope this Russian revolution has only just begun.
Many thanks to the Saker for his guidance and for sharing his wisdom.
I second that emotion LBD……but with an additional nuanced observation that I am sure will receive less than 1% approval here, today…or even tomorrow. LOL.
It is the longer term that counts, once Reason engages …as Ego and The Emotion of the Moment (including even long-awaited and well deserved Schaden-Freude….and Pindo-Punishment..) fade….with time…and….There Are Better Things to Do….going forward from here.
Believe it or not, there have always been some Americans that understood that the only national mission with any chance of being a moral one….was, IS, and always will be the mission to Keep The Republic……and NOT The Empire.
That is still a very much uncompleted mission, not even competently grasped by the vast majority of Americans, yet…..but so what???
The numbers of Old and Young Rip Van Winkles that are waking up is increasing every day…..and that “delta”, that rate of change of the rate of change (acceleration) of that change…… is a most helpful ingredient for any alliance of sovereign nation states that unite around the idea of a Multi-Polar World of Sovereign Nation States in place of Karl Rove’s Piece of Moral Shit Near the Top of An Empire Pile of Shit Power Declaration:
“We are an Empire now, and we will act….and you may study what we do……and before you fully understand what we have done …We Will Act…. Again!…..and then you may study that, as well.”.… so, in other words, “Shut the F up, slaves!”……disdain for ALL humanity…….. including 99% of all US citizens.
Furthermore, as important as the currently unfolding victory for sanity is, in the breathtaking developments in Syria and the Middle East as a whole, and as well deserved as respect for Russia, Syria, Iran…and especially Putin and Assad is (here’s the part a great many of you will gag on, be unable to digest it without much, much more “chewing time”…even if you are “game” to give it a try……despite some highly symbolic things thrown by citizens of Syria at departing US Army equipment….I don’t believe that Donald Trump or the saner members of his presidency, less visible than Pompeo, less vocal and contradictory than Lindsey Graham feel any humiliation in these happy days.
Indications are that their mission is NOT preservation of ANY empire…and certainly not the Anglo-Zionist One that seeks their defeat…..humiliation…and even death….which they have to know, unless they never heard of Christopher Steele and Joseph Mifsud….and are as stupid as many here like to imagine.
No, I think the smart ones are as OK with Russia assisting in the US extrication from the Empire’s Assignment of the US Cannon Fodder deployments to Iraq and Syria to aid in the final defeat of the lingering memory of the US Republic…as I am. And it (the withdrawal and quite a bit more occurring or becoming vastly more close to occurring, worldwide) warms the cockles of my American Heart, mind you!
But where is the most crucial battleground for me, or for these forces you may consider 100% hypothetical, or imaginary…including any positive (but “weak” ) intentions flitting about in The Donald’s Pea-Sized (the main consensus here, I am well aware…but consensus is usually wrong….and always incomplete) Brain?
Where? (Hint: Not Syria, Not Iraq, Not KSA or Israel)
No, not Orange County, CA or Florida……Washington D.C.
I think Dave of X-22 Report has it down, pretty much…in this episode I viewed last night:
The Patriots Just Trapped The [DS] Again, Moves And Countermoves – Episode 2002b
108,323 views•Oct 23, 2019
I cut out nearly a half hour of Drama in DC (with Little Adam fleeing his own no longer closed “Impeachment” hearing….30 Republicans barged in and demanded answers……) to cut to the part leading right in to Syria:
“Do you thing the Deep State is panicking? Absolutely! Now we find out that Inmad Zuberi, a 49 year old resident of Arcadia, California….he’s agreed to plead guilty….” which leads right into the US Battle ….on US Soil …over “Syria” ….in very short order.
Enjoy. We happy few……
That barging in by the 30……surely indicative of more strife to come….confrontations….a kind of civil war between the main parties that might lead to a greater conflict being sparked off????
Perhaps a symbolic neck stretching is due for such as Adam Schiff seeing as he pokes his out quite a long way voluntarily…..be very very afraid?
The Deep State is certainly panicking as Barr and Durham bring the power of the law to bear on their machinations. Anyone with a quarter of a brain who has done any reading whatsoever, knows that elements of the CIA and FBI hierarchies, in co-operation with foreigners from or associated with Ukrainian, UK, Italian and Australian ‘intelligence’, plotted to thwart Trump’s candidacy, then frame him with the utterly fraudulent and vapid ‘Russiagate’ garbage, and now the even more stupid ‘Ukraingate’ imbecility. In this effort they have been aided by a MSM so deranged as to be truly hilarious. The feminazi maenads, I fear, have been dreadfuller than the males, no doubt still livid that their demi-Goddess of slaughter and horror, Clinton, did not ascend the Throne of Blood. If Barr and Durham deliver, if the Deep State does not neutralise them (still more likely I fear)then the USA will suffer a convulsion unlike any other in its history, as the fraudulence of their ‘liberal democracy’ is revealed even to the dumbest Gomer Pyle in the land.
Your optimism is most welcome. I would suggest a similar examination of the present situation in Ukraine, especially considering that country’s role in the 2020 election, makes it a kind of powder keg on a number of levels, or so it seems from the outside. A delicious irony, perhaps that yet another evil Imperial project appears to turn, Frankenstein-like, on its creators.
Having a difficult time seeing any wins here in this very pressing situation, as the Peace Spring invasion of the Turks is an escalation and negative devolvement by any estimation. Shoigu is directly calling this invasion a crisis, which defines the marathon negotiations for this latest deal as nothing other than crisis negotiating, and hardly a victory dance. Turkey holds the keys to the Pontus, and directly administer the Takfiris, and has justified by agreement the right to intervene in Syria, via the Kurds. Presently, Russia’s stance in Syria, is as one on the very edge of the abyss, because the Turks are worse than the Americans by any measure —out of the frying pan, and into the fire. Turkey has the means and desire to destroy all the recent gains, and return Syria to 2015, overnight, the question is, what price do they demand from Putin not to do this? And will Russia be able to pay it?
Erdogan still threatening to release to Europe some up to 4 million refugees too…..maybe the EU “army” on the borders not of Syria Turkey but EU Turkey…….
Thanks a lot to The Saker for this brilliant analysis (once again). Due to the „facts on the ground“ twice a pleasure to read.
The liberation of the northeast is a true and very big milestone in the process of saving the Syrian Arab Republic – which itself as a whole is a true milestone in the battle against the hegemon aka „Das Große Tier“.
Since the situation in the northeast of Syria was always really f*****g complicated – one big Gordian knot – it is breathtaking how quickly the situation has changed now within days. (I am aware, that this is the result of a long period of diplomatics, negotiations, plannings, and what no …
And yes … as said already many times here: A true and big victory of Russia, its leadership, its diplomatic, military and intelligent services.)
This development touches my heart and my soul. Comparable to what I felt when Aleppo was finally fully liberated.
But … There is one thing I am still concerned a bit and another one which I do not understand.
I am concerned about the oil and gas fields.
Yet I have neither reliable infos that those have been secured by the SAA and their allies nor do I know about the strength of those (highly likely) US forces trying to „protect“ them.
My guess is, that Russian special forces and friends sooner or later will capture them. That will be tricky and there is a high risk that those who must quit the area will try to do their best to destroy what can be / what is not yet destroyed.
If this „topic“ is cleared too, I will be able to see the liberation of the northeast as completed and my heart will cheer and I will cry with joy.
The one thing I haven’t understand:
I was very much surprised that Trumps order to withdraw was obeyed.
As far as I can see and estimate, Trumps orders have been ignored many times. I am not sure what has been changed – but I feel like something has indeed changed.
My first speculation was, that D.T. has now more „support” from high level officers after he fired Bolton. Another one: The fact that the internal coup in the US comes into higher gears too, this also might have brought him some friends.
But, yeah, just speculations … I take it as it is.
The Gordian Knot was unraveled quickly and decisively (and irreversibly). You just need an Alexander, or a Vladimir.
I guess Izzies just responded to these developments: “Car bombs” and “prisoner escape”. I would expect more of the same to cause a US return.
”Wie der Sieg der Despoten in Syrien ein Volk zerstört, den IS stärkt und Europa bedroht”
Haha, Bürgerschweine — habt ihr Angst?
Now, just who will finally come to the rescue here? Erdogan? No. Trump? No. Mohammad Bin Salman? No. The Ukronazis and their Jewish kith and kin in Israel — unsere letzte Hoffnung, bestimmt.
”If Putin is such a loser who ’sells out’ everything and who works with/for Israel and for Netanyahu specifically, if Russia is so weak and clueless, why is it that it is not the Russian people who are denouncing a ’capitulation’ but, instead, why are all the enemies of Russia freaking out about capitulating?”
One thing to keep in mind here is that it is the long since bankrupt infantile disorders of Trotskyism and Anarchism that forever promote this moaning and groaning about never-ending betrayals this and sell-outs that. But still more important is that this is not based upon any genuine concern for the countries and peoples in struggle against imperialism. On the contrary, it is a genuine concern about the prospects for continued imperialism and extraction of imperialist super-profits to keep the West’s bourgeois-bohèmes afloat.
Putin and Assad are not selling out to the West’s bourgeois-bohèmes. Lousy authoritarians.
In a related vein, more on the Western Left and their political attacks on other nations, behind their usual progressive pretexts.
In this sense, the Western Left is just as bad as the Western Right or Western Moderates.
A pox on them all.
Western Progressives and the Imperialist Inquisition
Thank you for the link. Top notch material, not least the concluding statement:
Better still, as Syria shows us, the oppressed countries of the world are not so defenceless any longer — my only minor quibble with the article you linked. Small wonder most ”progressive” rags here in Sweden speak of Bashar al-Assad as the ”Tyrant in Damascus”. Or, as Der Spiegel put it: ”Wie der Sieg der Despoten in Syrien ein Volk zerstört /…/”.
Excellent, Saker, purely excellent. Lots of interesting info and analysis here, folks. I’m not going to try to parse Saker’s splendid writing, but I will add a couple thoughts to address some comments.
One. Reality is SehSha can not, can never again, do what she did to Irak some moons ago. How many months did it take SehSha to organize, ship, base and deploy enough troops to take on Irak? The World saw this and any regional actors will in future have the ability to stop such a massive effort in it’s infancy. Never forget, cruise missiles of varying accuracy and range seem to be everywhere now.
Two. Turkei very well knows which side of the bread it’s butter is on. Erdogan has clearly been shown that it’s Russia or Oblivion. Choice is clear.
Three. SehSha would be abysmally stupud to try to hold some oil producing areas with the troops available now or any time in the future, in my opinion that statement is simply bluster or some mid level moron in Foggy Bottom having a verbal personal pleasuring moment.
Four. I say again, what all of us are witnessing is tectonic shift of Power in the world. The facade of omnipotence of The Empire has cracked and badly. The facade is falling, revealing the relative impotence of a slowly fading empire that, in time but longer than most of us will be alive, will be relegated to second level importance and most importantly for that empire, second level respect.
Five. No one will try to destroy The Empire at this time nor will anyone try to hasten the fall of the empire, to do so would be to invite worldwide catastrophic economic distress which is not conducive to an orderly change of power, and those who have orchestrated this ‘fall from grace’ desire nothing more than a manageable fading of the empire to something less than a world wide perceived hegemon. It will not be ‘out with the old and in with the new’, it is and will continue to be an evolution, not a revolution.
Six. One little aside. Seems Mutti Merkel and some woman from Danemark are making noises about a ‘30,000 to 40,000 peace keeping army for Syria’. It is to laugh. Germany can’t field a tank battalion today, Danemark probably can’t field a tank company. Who they gonna send, and how? And, where were their big fat mouths when Syrians were being slaughtered by the tens of thousands and innocents having their heads cut off in public and aired on ‘media’? I can’t, and won’t, put on this blog my actual thoughts about the idiocy of some old Statsi has been woman or some Dane no one has heard of, but try this on for size. My dear ladies, Sierra Tango Foxtrot Uniform.
Never The Last One, paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056 A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
An Incident On Simonka, paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1696160715 NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
Replying to Three: https://www.voltairenet.org/article208090.html
“On 23 October 2019, President Putin’s Special Envoy in the Middle East, Mikhail Bogdanov, asserted that all Syrian oil and gas sites must return under the control of the Syrian Arab Republic.
President Bashar al-Assad had already granted concessions to Russian companies, which have so far not been able to exploit them.
During the negotiations preceding the Turkish “Operation Peace Spring,” the United States had insisted that the Rojava oil fields be operated by US or Israeli companies.”
Now, the US counterpart of Mikhail Bogdanov as special envoy to the ME is the former coffee boy of Jared Kushner. I’ll guess this will be settled ;-)
Replying to Six: see my post above as reply to vot tak about this, with heard sarcastic reactions of common Germans, that they will only say when they know you and behind closed doors. That is quite different than in public.
SehSha can say and ask what they want, Deir will be empty of the invaders soon and any parsing of the oil and gas fields will not fly. It will take many thousands of troops to hold those fields, not a few hundred scattered around the countryside in vulnerable enclaves waiting to be plucked off like ripe apples.
For Six, I am ethnic German on both sides and I’m well aware of what Germans say in private to friends as opposed to what they may or may not say in public. To the best of my knowledge, the last German troops in the ‘new’ free zone up north left five days ago, to the best of my knowledge quietly crossing the border to Turkei. I don’t know what happened to the Poles and Dutch, but I’ve been told the Brits ran with the Americans but I’ve seen no evidence of this, just innuendo.
No German is going to get involved in another fiasco like this Syrian debacle. Mutti is done for and we both know that, she was simply bleating one more time what USA told her to say. Time for the old Statsi sow to go home and shut up, her day is gone but we Germans will need two generations to repair what she’s done, if we ever can….or will.
Having enjoyed reading your two books I just want to thank you for your writing skills and ground truth about war.
To quote Sayyed Ali Khamenei: we thank Allah, who rendered our enemies imbeciles.
Greetings to all the Moon of Alabama barflies!
That’s exactly the crucial difference forever between Satan and the US President: Obe of them is evil but intelligent.
Things are happening fast and the TV addicts in DC can not adjust fast enough. The pentagon badly in denial wants to hold the oil wells of Eastern Syria. The obvious move for the YPG and SDF is to prove their loyalty to Pres. Assad by attacking the Americans. The Evil empire’s Stormtroopers have killed so many Arabs that 99% of Syrians and 90% of Iraqis hate the Yanks. nobody in DC can admit this. As soon as bodybags come flowing back the American people will demand to know the truth.
The Saker was right 5 years ago when he predicted the US backing the Ukrainian Nazis would backfire. New president of Ukraine has every motive to cooperate with Trump in investigating what happened from maidan until now. The truth will come out, CIA engineered Maidan, backed the Nazi battalions,and very likely Biden gave shoot down order for MH 17. Side bonus, NYT, Wapo and Mainstream TV will be humiliated.
From Saving Private Ryan to helping Nazis ethnically cleanse will be a shock to US system.
Here is what I worry about: “Now, of course and by definition, the idiots in DC can trigger some kind of violent strike or even a full scale war, but if Trump okays such an idea, he will lose the White House for sure.”
Trump has been under fire by the Deep State from day one. Even his Republican supporters in the Senate are starting to waver. Trump may not even be in a position to lose the presidency if the Deep State (fronted by the Democrats) have their way. None of the actors here can be confidently considered rational. The Deep State is apoplectic about the defeat in Syria and, as Saker has correctly observed about their past reactions to failure, are looking to double or nothing as they always do. Trump may be forced to heel by the Deep State or removed entirely if he refuses. Either way, the coast is not clear in the Middle East by any stretch.
On a systemic level the Empire does not have too many options, another massive economic break is on the horizon and the dollar, though still dominant, is under more stress from all directions than at any time since its rise to to the top of the heap following WW2. If the dollar and, by extension, the Empire and the Neo-Liberal Capitalist order it is the linchpin of is to survive, it cannot let go of its designs on the strategically critical ME. Zbigniew Brzezinski recognized this in his book the Grand Chessboard decades ago. Beyond that, the MIC needs an official enemy that it can use to justify successive large, beyond imagination, budgets and, as country founded on supremacist values, predatory expansion and genocide, it is organically and programmatically impossible for it to act or become, as Saker puts it, “a normal country.” It never was a normal country to begin with much like, Israel, its political and ideological doppelganger. Finally, the whole show in Washington needs the political theater centered around Russia to keep the plebs confused and distracted. Taken all together, it leaves me hardly sanguine about the future.
Somewhat realated to above topic Russia delivered S400 to Serbia!!!
Turkey is tamed.? Erdogan can be trusted.?
I didn’t have the intention to reply but I am forced to after having read this piece of (dis)information from an Italian journalist. I am even surprised that Voltairenet is publishing such an article. According to the author, Turkey is dependent on western, especially “Italian” weapon systems. Just a reminder that Turkey produces seventy (70) percent of its own weaponry as we speak, using national resources plus own research and development. Turkey produces all kinds of aircraft missiles, military electronics, attack helicopters, naval ships, drones and more. The military industry in Turkey has started in the 70s (after 74 Cyprus intervention to be correct following the US sanctions), at a time when the Turkish military was 100% dependent on the US and western military aid. Those days are long gone. For instance Turkey build its own low altitude missile system using indigenous parts, but had to purchase Russian technology for high altitude missile sytem S400 from Russia in order to fill the gap for high altitute missile defence. At the beginning Turkey had to develop its industry with western partnership (like the Attack helicopters with Italy), but today many of the parts and electronics are build by Turkish firms and even high performance engines are being started to be build now in Turkey. The newly designed and larger attack helicopter is designed purely by Turkish engineers. This is a huge leap forward within the last 50 years. Some of the pending projects are the national tank called “Altay” and a 5th generation fighter jet. So Italian sanctions and its effects on Turkey as the author claims is utter nonsense and won’t affect anything in terms of Turkey’s determination to protect its borders or being ally to Russia. BTW many patriots in Turkey sees Turkish/Russian cooperation and friendship a great thing. I thing these two great nations of Euroasia shall and must be the best allies in the region. It is good for Turkey and it is good for Russia. Sorry Europe and the US! You may continue with your disinformation.
“Trump used this (totally true, but nevertheless pretext) to get out of Syria (at least officially) not only to protect US lives, but to also get out of the political quicksand which Syria has become for the Axis of Kindness.”
Except the americans didn’t leave Syria and trump knew they wouldn’t be leaving as he made claims the americans were leaving Syria. IE: he lied, as he has been lying all along.
A very good and expansive summary. I would only like to throw in my two cents on your comment regarding the Pence-Pompeo visit to Turkey. In this, I believe the Russian hand is very clear: Russians (in particular Lavrov) knows very well that no lasting peace can be achieved if one of the key parties feels humiliated. In this, Trump made a huge mistake with his letter, but Lavrov/Putin threw both Trump and Erdogan a PR bone. The existing ceasefire agreement was held off for a visit from Pompeo/Pence and the Americans were allowed a little victory. Trump lapped it up. This is so classical and can only be sprung from the minds of great experienced diplomats.
The extent and width and depth of Russian diplomacy here cannot be overstated. From their stunning revelation of a Iraq-Iran-Syria-Russia intel sharing back in 2015 right under the unwitting American noses, to the many agreements, this shows that they have all the info to tie the ribbons. No one else does.
I would also like to point out something to counteract others who try to say that Trump would have been aware of this and somehow geniously co-constructed it: such a carefully constructed dialogue over 4-5 countries with moving parts cannot in any way shape or form be outed to any American participation: the US, Pentagon, CIA nd Trump administration are so conflicted with each other that they will use any knowledge against each other for political gain: they are a giant sieve. Russia will deal with them with a very long pole. Trump is massively unaware, and just runs by his instinct (which isn’t bad).
Saker, what is your analyse about the fact that US wants plans to keep some troops in the oil zones, in a try in my opinion, to prevent Syria to take back this profitable territory and to prevent the rebuilt of the syrian state with this financial ressource.
What could Russia and Syria do to oppose to this? Send some syrian troops all around, to control all the axes around theses oil fields? but by the past US troops killed a lot of syrian soldiers because they move to close theses zones.
I am looking for an update on the situation. No doubt the webmaster here is working hard to figure out what’s really going on and getting it out to us in an easily digestible form. But there’s been so much in the “Wars and rumors of wars” department that it’s hard to keep up. Additionally there is a layer of disinformation and rumors and I’d like to know what’s going on.
Have US troops returned to all their previous locations? What is the actual status of the US military in Syria at the moment? Has the SAA taken control of border towns? Has the Turkish army handed back control of any territory it has overrun back to the Syrian government? Has the YPG integrated with Syrian forces? How?
While Trump has ordered a partial withdrawal of the approximately 1,000 American troops on Syrian territory — who have been enforcing an illegal military occupation under international law — US officials and the president himself have admitted that some will be staying. And they will remain on Syrian soil not to ensure to safety of any group of people, but rather to maintain control over oil and gas fields.
The US military has already killed hundreds of Syrians, and possibly even some Russians, precisely in order to hold on to these Syrian fossil fuel reserves.
Washington’s obsession with toppling the Syrian government refuses to die. The United States remains committed to preventing Damascus from retaking its own oil, as well as its wheat-producing breadbasket region, in order to starve the government of revenue and prevent it from funding reconstruction efforts.
The Washington Post noted in 2018 that the US and its Kurdish allies were militarily occupying a massive “30 percent slice of Syria, which is probably where 90 percent of the pre-war oil production took place.”
Now, for the first time, Trump has openly confirmed the imperialist ulterior motives behind maintaining a US military presence in Syria.
“We want to keep the oil,” Trump confessed in a cabinet meeting on October 21. “Maybe we’ll have one of our big oil companies to go in and do it properly.”
Three days earlier, the president tweeted, “The U.S. has secured the Oil.”
Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson Major General Igor Konashenkov called the US oilfield operation “state-sponsored banditry,” and accused Washington of leaving its forces there to help oil smugglers pillage Syria’s national resources. https://www.rt.com/news/472065-us-deny-syria-oil-esper/
Btw: Grayzone journalist Max Blumenthal, who was reportedly jailed for two days after a SWAT-style police team showed up threatening to break his door down last Friday
I’m no analyst, but this seems overwrought to me. Assad and Putin enjoyed unity, whereas the West could not support the rebels, except the Kurds, without giving aid and comfort to extermists, who, due to their operational experience, tended to dominate the rebel military effort.
Loved reading the article combined with all the comments. I found an important item missing: the state of the economies of the U.S. compared to Russia, and China.
Both have stated they want the end of the US petrodollar as the global reserve currency. Both are purchasing tons (literally) of physical gold (as compared to paper gold on the LBMA or COMEX). Russia is practically debt free and while China has problems with its debt it also has accumulated way more than its official 2000+/- tons of gold.
The end of the US$ is what the US elites fear – it is what drives its efforts to control oil resources around the world as oil is traded with the US$. The end of the dollar regime will break the US economy, will break the military – except for its own choice if it wants to go with the Israeli Samson option.
The US military is the largest institutional user of hydrocarbons in the world. It’s military budget is larger than the rest of the world combined (especially if one includes its nuclear resources and its security apparatus). The end of the petrodollar will devastate the US economy and hamstring its military.
Thank you Saker, and all the great, thoughtful contributors to the discussion.
The masterful moves by the great chess player and fighter are an inspiration; I still have a difficult time not howling a cynical chortle when the poor zombified majority, here in the Great White North, regurgitate what the … you know run main stream media has told them to say about Putin, in the context of the sad lot of puppets, put in place by… you know who.
As Eric has noted above (http://thesaker.is/revisiting-the-win-win-win-win-outcome-in-syria/#comment-712538), the withdrawal of the empire’s forces is much like the Matador’s al recibir kill of the spent, exhausted bull, but there was much intelligent design and building, yes, building of infrastructures and understandings between clashing parties, which enabled (what some of us may hope to be) a decisive moment.
I believe Jim’s comment (thesaker.is/revisiting-the-win-win-win-win-outcome-in-syria/#comment-712538) is relevant for a few reasons, oil!
The empire is built on the control of this fundamental strategic resource, without which, it cannot survive in the form it has taken since the WWII.
There are two vectors changing this:
1. the gifted growth of the Chinese economy, and the crash and redemption of Russia, combined with the U.S.A. executive, becoming like it’s master, obsessively neurotic, has lead to the great rising Eurasian powers to mitigate the increasingly ridiculous control attempted by the hegemon, by developing alternative mechanisms to the controlled financial movement of the empire, and, of course, as rightly noted, moving back towards readiness for the re-imposition of a gold standard – thus breaking the monopoly.
but there is more…
2. while the need for petro-resources for energy will not go away overnight, it seems awareness in a critical mas of the world’s people has passed a point of accepted dependence on petro-resource-for-energy paradigm.
To say that the empire has been all-in on this paradigm is an understatement.
At another time, under an appropriate article, perhaps more on the information-manipulation paradigm that is emerging.
Back to the empire’s withdraw as a critical moment…
We see the symptoms of collapse in the U.S.A., such as the gaff prepared by the deep state to have The Don as a chump against their assumptive candidate for the throne, but as we have (whether we wanted it or not) have been shown, this is a personage who can’t be predicted by the deep state, though it seems that some elements have found methods for herding him, (as one would herd… squirrels!?)
The relevance of this is the currently ongoing civil war in the United States, and the sheer, previously unbelievable, patheticness of the political discourse their, and to a lesser, but unmistakably also pathetic, political antics across the empire (the entire Brexit thing is close to eclipsing even The Don, though… I expect he will find a way to get the spotlight back on himself, at any cost!).
So, back to the focus on ‘the precise moment’ many people hope is, I wonder what the larger consequences are for this event, across the entire ‘house-of-cards-balanced-on-fumes existence of the empire, and that … affiliation of the management class?
Kurdish issue. Alain Joseph, Kurdish leader in France says: “Kurds in Syria will disappear”
This is a Greek video by Giorgia Bidaku, journalist and anti-EU activist, who is fluent Italian and English speaker.
Alain Joseph and Giorgia use English here. You can start at 14:21
Visual MSM propaganda is using image beatification (like in a magazine)
This is the real image of Gordon Sondland:
The Associated Press one (in a Sputnik article in this case) has had symmetry added to it etc:
A supurb, if not the best overview of the current situation in Syria.
Brilliantly articulated and researched with objective integrity.
The comments referrable to the Kurds is nothing short of brilliant.
Well done Saker. Well done indeed!