In the bad old days when I used to do analysis for a living, I had a boss which always insisted that I offer him several possible outcomes. He wanted me to tell him, “either X or Y could happen, but if not, then Z is a definite possibility”. In his mind, by covering all the possible outcomes our department’s “analysis” would never be wrong, and he would ways been seen as “systematic” and “competent” by his bosses. I always hated that. From my point of view, this is exactly what the local weatherman does when he predicts “a hot mostly sunny day, with some clouds and possible afternoons showers with local thunderstorms”. This, of course, describes almost *any* day in Florida, but this is hardly an acceptable cop out for an analyst who, I strongly believe, should be paid not to list all the possibilities, but to make a prediction based on his knowledge and expertise. I still believe that the difference between a real expert and a ignorant “pundit” is that the former has the skills to make the right call, and yet I am about to do exactly what I dislike pundits so much for: I will mention possible events, some general trends, but without making any firm prediction. And I will do that for exactly the same reasons as the pundits: I am simply unable to confidently predict what will actually happen.
I can, however, draw a few basic conclusions from the preceding installments, the most important one is that Russia is in a state of high instability and of constant change.
To illustrate what I mean by that, I have written two descriptions of modern Russia which appear to be contradictory or even mutually exclusive, but which both contain more than a few factual truths.
Russia version one:
Russia is: a country which is in the process of finally breaking off from the Western domination which, depending of whom you ask, began in the 17th century, February 1917, November 1917 or 1991. Between 1991 and 2000 the entire political system was re-designed according to US orders (all key ministries at the time were literally crowded with US “advisers” who basically told their subservient Russian “Ministers” “do this, sign that”). As for the Russian economy, it was totally controlled by the Jewish oligarchs which basically plundered it sharing the proceeds with their US patrons. As soon as Putin came to power he embarked on a massive program to get rid of US “advisers” and Jewish oligarchs and that, of course, earned him the eternal hatred of the West. As part of this national liberation process, Putin has also given the full support of the state to the main traditional/historical religions of Russia, which in practical terms means Christian Orthodoxy and Islam (nominally about 40% and 7% of the population respectively, only a much smaller proportion of which are truly religious). Pro-Western religions (Papism, Protestantism and Judaism taken together account for less than 0.5% of the population). Likewise, there are no pro-Western political parties in the Russian Duma, not because of any “stolen” elections, but simply because these parties could not even make the needed 5% to get a single representative. In other words, it is reasonable to assume that only about 5% of the population of Russia has any sympathies with the Western cultural, economic, political or societal model and 95% of Russians clearly want another course for their country.
The example of Chechnia has proven that the combined efforts of local traditional Muslim forces and of the Federal authorities are capable of dealing even with the worst forms of Wahabi extremism. As a result of this, patriotic (but not nationalist) Russians and Muslims are joining forces against a common enemy: the Anglo intelligence services (CIA/MI6 & Co.) and their proxies, the Wahabi preachers and guerrillas.
The reelection of Vladimir Putin to the Presidency has now triggered a deepening and acceleration of the movement initiated under his presidency during his first terms: following US advisers and Jewish oligarchs, it is now the turn of the proponents of the “Atlantic integrationist” viewpoint to be given the boot: the process which began with the now disgraced ex-Minister of Defense Serdiukov might well end with a dismissal of Premier Medvedev who, in many ways, is the lead representative of this “Atlantic integrationist” worldview. Should that happen, and should the “Eurasian sovereignists” gain full control over Russia’s foreign policy, this will result is a major shift of Russian policies towards Iran whom the Eurasian sovereignists always cite as the natural ally of Russia in the Middle-East.
Along a revamping of relations with Iran, Russian foreign policy priorities will be, in order of importance, the establishment of a Eurasian Union, the deepening of the political collaboration with the SCO member countries and the BRICS, in particular China and India. While Russia will continue to see the EU as an important economic partner, it will keep this relationship purely on a economically mutually beneficial basis with only “symbolic shows of togetherness”. In the Middle-East, Russia will continue to staunchly support Iran and Syria with all available means short of overt military intervention.
Russia number two:
Historically, Russia has always been an objective ally of Western imperialism, and this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. The main reason why Putin gave the boot to US advisers and Jewish oligarchs has little to do with some deeply-felt political beliefs and has everything to do with a typically Russian power struggle inside the Kremlin. The various factions in the Kremlin are now skillfully impersonating a conflict between pro-Western and nationalistic groups. This purely rhetorical propaganda campaign makes it possible for the Russian elites to remain in power. Once we realize that elites are only interested in one thing – their own power and wealth – we also can easily predict their view of the West. For these Russian elites the West is primarily a source of more wealth and power, a giant which can be played against your opponents, an overlord which will let you share in the spoils of the vicious exploitation of Russia and its people as long has the West’s interests are not truly threatened. Thus, is is equally obvious that the Kremlin will never openly challenge the West, much less so do something which could truly trigger a determined response from the West.
Take the example of Chechnia: this conflict was “resolved” only when the West, busy with 9/11 and the GWOT, gave the “green light” to the Russian forces to butcher the Chechen people and install their own puppet-thug Kadyrov. The Russians have learned that simple lesson: as long as the West considers you “their SOB” then you are free to do pretty much anything at home but if you decide to take an independent course, you end up like Noriega, Saddam, Gaddafi and Assad (this threat was openly made by demonstrators during the recent color-coded revolution attempt in Russia).
Yes, most of the highly visible Jewish oligarchs have been exiled and one, Khodorkovsky, is in jail. But what does really mean? That these oligarchs, tired of a their decade long pillaging of Russia, have decided to follow the example of a satiated tick, and simply fell-off from their host, to go and happily digest their orgy of blood in a friendlier place: Israel, the UK or somewhere else in Europe. Every departing Jewish oligarch has now been replaced with another, equally predatory and cynical, oligarch (either Jewish or Russian). The system of predatory bloodsucking of Russia and its people is still very much in place and is unlikely to ever change.
As for religions – they are practically irrelevant to Russia. Each religious denomination in Russia has a traditionalist wing which is too small to ever make a difference, while the rest of the country is populated by people who are either wholly lukewarm or even hostile to any religion. The Orthodox propaganda finds some followers in Russia only because it provides for a “patriotic” substitute for the now discredited Marxism-Leninism. As for the Wahabi propaganda, the only reason why it is popular in some nominally Muslim ethnicities is because it gives a cachet of religious legitimacy to what could only be referred to as the basic thuggery of some ethnic groups which have lived from crime and robbery for centuries.
As for Russian foreign policy, it will continue to be a bizarre mix of petty grandstanding and grand collaboration with the USA and whoever has enough power to pressure the Russian elites. The only “natural ally” of Russia in the Middle-East is Israel, if only because both countries are run by pragmatic thugs who skillfully impersonate nationalists. The Russian mob and the Jewish Mafia are, for all practical purposes, one and the same phenomenon, and they have never ceased working together for their mutual benefit. Religion or ethnicity are irrelevant for these people whose only loyalty is to themselves.
So which version of Russia do you prefer? Which one do you believe is correct?
Personally, it is pretty clear that I think that version number one is the correct overall description of what is taking place. I cannot deny, however, that version two still has a lot of factual basis behind it. In fact, version two is very much the version which “Atlantic integrationists” are instinctively comfortable with. And as long as the “Atlantic integrationists” will remain a powerful segment of Russian society Russia number two will remain a reality, at least in part.
What does that mean for Muslims in Russia and abroad?
From a pragmatic point of view, there is really very little Muslims can do to affect the processes currently taking place in Russia. Inside Russia Muslims have no other option than to support the regime in power for a very basic reason: any “success” of Wahabi Islam in Russia will inevitably turn into a total disaster for all the Muslims affected by it. First, because Wahabi Islam is a direct threat to the traditions and culture of Muslims in Russia. Second because, unlike what happened during the first Chechen war, Russia now has all the means to crush any separatist or extremist movement at any stage of its development, ranging from effective counter-intelligence work to the engagement of fully armed and trained units and formations in a spectrum of operations ranging from counter-insurgency to combined arms operations. Yes, there still are Wahabi terrorist attack in Dagestan and southern Russia, and there are Wahabi preachers still involved in all kids of murders of traditionalist Muslims, primarily in the region of Kazan but also in other parts of Russia. The primarily reason why this is still taking place is that the nuisance of these attacks is below the “reaction threshold” of the main Russian “power ministries” (State Security, Defense) and are dealt with mostly by the Ministry of Internal Affairs (sometimes assisted by local elements of State Security). After all, the murder of a few policemen or clerics is hardly a reason to justify the involvement of special forces or the military – the regular cops and courts should learn how to deal with this. But should the situation get out of control then the “Federals” will show up and deal with it, rapidly and ruthlessly.
Outside Russia, Muslims are all more or less stuck into doing more of the same. Iran, Syria and Hezbollah can only keep hoping that Putin’s Russia will be a better ally or partner than Medvedev’s, while the bulk of the rest of the Islamic countries does not need to give Russia much thought at all, if only because pretty much all of the Muslim countries on the planet besides Iran and Syria are now firmly under the control of Uncle Sam who, of course, will tell them what to think, say or do.
The main paradox
I wrote this series of articles on the topic of Russia and Islam because I saw both of these categories as a part of what I would call the global resistance against the West’s imperialism. And most of my discussion has been focused on trying to see whether Russia would ever turn into a consistent part of this resistance or not. And my conclusion is, in this respect, a very hopeful one because I very much believe that Russia will not only turn into a consistent part of this resistance, but because I even see it as the most important and powerful actor in this movement (what other major country today has a population with only 5% of pro-Western elements and sits on top of a booming economy?). In contrast, it appears to me that most of the Islamic Ummah is now firmly in the hands of the West, either openly (Jordan, Morocco, Indonesia, etc.) or through its Wahabi proxies (Qatar, Libya, Pakistan, etc.). In this context, the differences between the Egyptian Ikhwan, the “Syrian” FSA, the Palestinian Hamas, the Albanian thugs in Kosovo or the al-Qaeda constellation make very little difference to me. Fundamentally, they all, I repeat *ALL*, have been co-opted and are controlled by the USA, at least to a degree sufficient to be manipulated and used as proxies. Thus, from the Russian point of view, they are all potential, if not actual, enemies at least as much, if not more, then the regime of Saakashvili in Georgia or the Latvian and Estonian nationalists.
As far as I can tell, the Shia are the only Muslims still resisting the West’s imperialism. And when I look at the actions of the Iraqi government, I cannot even say that all Shia resist, as even nominally Shia politicians can be found amongst Western collaborators. Finally, just one thought about what could have happened in Iran if the Gucci Revolution of Rafsanjani & Co. would have toppled the Islamic Republic immediately tells me that even the Shia world is not nearly as stable and contradictions-free as I wish it was.
I will now do something else which is usually a bad idea. I will speak of people rather than ideas. But I will do this only to illustrate a simple point. My belief is that Vladimir Putin, Ayatollah Khamenei and Hassan Nasrallah are, or at the very least, should be, natural allies. By extension, I would say that what these three people individually stand for should naturally bring them to support each other and join their efforts. The question is whether these political leaders will survive long enough to join forces.
My focus on “Russia and Islam” was probably flawed from the outset since it looked primarily at two high-level concepts whereas the most interesting developments are happening at a deeper, sub-national, level. Still, if my prediction about Russia proves to be correct, resistance in Russia to the West will soon go from sub-national to national, and if by that time the Islamic Republic is still in power in Iran, and I believe that it will be, the potential of a Russian-Iranian alliance could become truly immense, in particular if it is supported by other countries elsewhere (Venezuela at the OPEC or China at the BRICS). Such an alliance could not only save Syria, but also protect Lebanon – via Hezbollah – from a foreign takeover.
This last segment concludes my series on Russia and Islam. I am sorry that I was unable to give some kind of confident and optimistic prediction. My hope is that at the very least I might have contributed to the dispelling of some myths and clichés, an admittedly far more modest goal. For example, if I have succeeded in showing that while Russia and France both struggle with seemingly similar problems (immigration, extremism, crime, separatism, etc.) they are doing so in very different contexts and one should not think of Russia as some kind of “bigger France in the East”. Muslims, in particular, should refrain from transposing Western realities to a fundamentally non-Western context.
My only confident prediction is that Russia in 10 years will be dramatically different from the Russia of today. Whether that will be for the better or the worse is, unfortunately, not something I can predict with confidence, though my personal and very strong feeling is that it will be for the better, and possibly even for the much better.
As always, time will show.
What can I say? – Another top-class exposition of geo-political reality.
Like you, I’d like to think that Russia 1 has – and will continue to have – the edge over Russia 2, leading to some form of genuine global ‘multi-polarity’ (to use a Putin phrase).
My fear is that it is already too late. I could go on at length about why but it boils down to one over-riding consideration – viz the history of Kabbalistic Judaism in both Russia and the West. Thanks largely to the excesses of the Third Reich (or rather the highly effective propaganda purposes to which they have been harnessed), it has achieved near total control in the US, likewise (in it’s less obvious Masonic form) in the UK and much of Western Europe. It’s influence in 21st century Russia is perhaps less obvious but, given a historic propensity to pathalogical secrecy in Russian ruling circles, it seems to me likely that it’s influence is nonetheless considerable – even covertly dominant.
For sure, Western SIS’s and the Power elites they serve are acutely aware of all this. They look to me to have the stronger position on Brzinzki’s Grand Chessboard right now, with checkmate looming – but then chess itself is essentially Persian and Russian so who knows?
We live in interesting times eh?
@Wikispooks: Like you, I’d like to think that Russia 1 (…) My fear is that it is already too late (…) We live in interesting times eh?
That we definitely do indeed! If you had asked my opinion in the late 1990s I would have told you that Russia is basically finished as a nation, nevermind as a major power. And yet, Putin did achieve something which can only be assessed as a miraculous turnaround. Sure, the danger now has become much bigger because Putin and his “Eurasian sovereignists” have broken cover and are now acting well within the “radar” of the Western’s “deep state” (Masonic and para-Masonic). However, the very fact that they have finally broken cover also tells me that they think that the time is right and that now is the opportunity to act fast, very fast.
One should never under estimate the power of the Western plutocracy, but I must have to say that it is rather weak right now and that it cannot really get to Putin or Russia, no from the outside, nor from the inside. Let me give you an example. Have you seen this:
If you read the PDF of the full report you will see that this CIA front is calling on the US government to adopt the following anti-Russian measures:
1) Actively challenge—rhetorically and through policy decisions—the authoritarian actions of the Putin regime, and do so at the highest levels of the U.S. government, starting with President Obama.
2) Abandon talk of seeking “win-win” cooperation, since Putin views power relations in zero-sum terms and will not pursue such mutual benefits in good faith.
3)Implement aggressively and fairly the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act to deny those Russian officials involved in human rights abuses the privileges of U.S. travel and banking services.
4) Restore the notion of “linkage” as a policy tool to make clear that human rights and democracy are part of and will affect the broader bilateral relationship.
5) Stand in solidarity with Russian activists—financially and vocally—by finding innovative ways to continue supporting those who seek political liberalization in Russia. This will be most effective when it is coordinated with allies.
6) Delay a decision on President Obama’s attendance at the Group of 20 meeting in Moscow in September, and indicate that an earlier trip to meet with Putin in Russia is not possible without a serious turnaround in the country’s human rights situation.
7) Withhold support for Russia’s bid to join the OECD unless and until Moscow starts abiding by the rules and norms of organizations to which it already belongs.
8) Aggressively investigate potential violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in Russia.
9) Work with Russia whenever possible, but when its leaders obstruct international efforts to uphold democracy and human rights or prevent atrocities, search for ways to work around or without Russia.
Do you think that any of that will impress the Kremlin? Of course not! This is a joke, really, old Cold War crap which will only trigger giggles in the Kremlin.
Since its very inception, Kabbalistic Judaism (which I refer to as “Phariseic Judaism”) has had as its central goal the destruction of any and all Christian countries, nations or cultures, and this is still very much true today. But unlike what happened in the 19th and 20th centuries, these forces currently simply do not have to means to achieve their goals. This is why I am currently very cautiously optimistic.
“The reelection of Vladimir Putin to the Presidency has now triggered a deepening and acceleration of the movement initiated under his presidency during his first terms: following US advisers and Jewish oligarchs”
British advisors who were trained under Gorbachev in the l;ate 80’s in London and British institutions in Europe and the Oligarchs who received their initial foreign capital to buy up Russia’s resources from the likes of Lord Jacob Rothschild.
“Outside Russia, Muslims are all more or less stuck into doing more of the same. Iran, Syria and Hezbollah can only keep hoping that Putin’s Russia will be a better ally or partner than Medvedev’s, while the bulk of the rest of the Islamic countries does not need to give Russia much thought at all, if only because pretty much all of the Muslim countries on the planet besides Iran and Syria are now firmly under the control of Uncle Sam who, of course, will tell them what to think, say or do.”
What would Russia want to position itself as being friendly with Iran and Hezbollah?
Islam itself is corrupt not just the countries whose major organisations and NGO’s in Europe and North America are 100% supportive and backing US/western agenda.
These Mid East Emerites are not controlled by the US and Britain they are run by them most of the states security and intelligence personal like in Bahrain used to work to British intelligence and security who I don’t think are even capable of running their own country just look at Egypt or even Central Asia and the Caucasus when it is not under Russian rule or influence.
Try arguing with a Muslim that Srebrenica was a fraud and the whole Muslims being slaughtered was a hoax and they won’t listen for a second just like in Chechnya, Circassian issue or any other event where Muslims are perceived as victims.
From what I have been observing, much of Russia has been heading strongly in the direction of the first scenario – a rather decisive break from the shackles & regrowth into a major, independant civilisation.
Russia has seen neo-liberalism close-up & the majority despise it, and have little time for the west’s double-speak on ‘human rights’ & democracy.
It’s level of human capital is superb, the creativity that Russia is famous for is coming back in leaps & bounds, and realistically the major thing holding them back is the amount of wealth still in the oligarch’s hands. Unlike the west, however, they have a government that will decisively put them in their place when they over-reach, & finance/derivatives model of the modern west has not been able to make major inroads into controlling the political process.
With the complete corruption of the Western banking world now so blatantly evident in Cyprus, even the worst of the oligarch’s now should realise that investing back into Russia is the only way forward, putting this capital back into the economy, as it will simply be stolen by the west if they look to hide it in foreign tax shelters.
And while I think Putin is still too market orientated in his focus, the majority of the Russian people have turned decisively leftwards, which Putin will be taking his cues from strongly.
What remains to be done is keeping the banking cartels out, the neo-liberals away from policy, & the continueing regrowth of the industrial & scientific institutions, which, while still patchy, has seen steady, serious strides over the last decade.
Add to the fact that Russia is one of the few countries in the world completely self-sufficient in all the major resources necessary, with vast areas of the country still relatively unspoiled, the future looks bright.
PS. one of the best series I’ve read on Russia from a western viewpoint. Congratulations on some truly excellent work.
@KenM:I think Putin is still too market orientated in his focus
I very much agree, but I also have come to the conclusion that he is very limited in his powers and that he is forced to take very pro-market people into account. For instance, I think that he was always opposed to the entry of Russia into the WTO, but that he accepted that a) Russia was a de-facto member since the 1990s, but with no rights at all and b)I think that he was also always opposed to the local election of governors, but that he just did not have the means to prevent it. As I mentioned in the essays, the man is very good, but the system he has to function in is terrible.
one of the best series I’ve read on Russia from a western viewpoint. Congratulations on some truly excellent work.
Thank you very much for these kind words of support. I was somewhat disappointed by the lack of reaction that I got to this series, so I ended up writing it if not purely for myself, then “for the Internet”, just so it is out there. But I had hoped for more discussions, so your kind words greatly encourage me and I am very grateful for them.
The Saker: “I was somewhat disappointed by the lack of reaction that I got to this series, so I ended up writing it if not purely for myself, then “for the Internet”, just so it is out there.”
Regardless of the lack of reaction, I think your essays are thought-provoking and well written. The lack of reaction is understandable: probably not many people know of your blog, I came to your blog from another blog purely by accident.
Here’s an idea though: maybe you can repackage some of your works as a book and sell it on Amazon? The effect will likely to be miniscule, both economically and in terms of readership, but still I doubt it can hurt much.
Good luck and I hope you will not get discouraged by the “lack of reaction”.
Thank you so much for an exceptional effort in this thrilling many parts series on Russia and Islam and Beyond. It is a unique perspective from a unique vantage point which comes with a wealth of background and hands on experience in the theater of operations spanning a couple of decades. It is very poignat in many ways and offers a vision with caveats which will surely be with us for many more years and it will be a road map which will allow us to read upcoming events with an eye on coming back to your superb analysis and comparing notes as events unfold in EURASIA, MENA and way beyond.
I thank you so much for well thought out product which I have shared with all my friends and many others who are interested in those subject matters and who count…
I will treasure your analysis and it will be a reference point for me as we navigate the coming difficult decade…
Thanks again and look forward to coming back for more;
@Anonymous23:32 & Joe: thank you both for your kind words, I did not mean to look like I am “fishing” for compliments, LOL! When I say that I was expecting more reactions, I just mean that I still cannot predict which posts will generate a discussion, and which won’t. Beyond that, I know that my blog will never be very popular simply because my views do not fit into any of the popular worldviews/philosophies out there and that by speaking my mind with no regard to the consequences thereof I will alienate a lot of people. My religious views, in particular, always end up getting a lot of people mad at me for being too pro-Muslim, not pro-Muslim enough, too anti-Papist, too anti Orthodox modernist, too anti-anti-Muslim, too anti-Phariseic Judaism, etc.
I have noticed that most people need to feel like they are part of a “bigger something” to which they give their loyalties, whereas I simply have no interest for such stances: I say what I believe to be the truth no matter what and I don’t care at all about how many people I will piss off in the process.
Besides, I really get a great deal of satisfaction writing “for the Internet”. I figure that if any of what I have to say has any value, then those who might appreciate it will, sooner or later, come across it by one way or another. And if that means that only ONE person feels interest in reading something I posted here, then I can say “mission accomplished”!
Lastly, I know that there is a small “core group” of readers which I really consider friends, which do not comment each and every post, but which have been here for years and who regularly their email me or post a small comment once every fews months. And when they give me a sign of life, it always warms my heart.
All this is to say that I will not get discouraged, I can promise you that. Some days are tougher than others, and all words of support are always a great help, but *all of you* friends have been great to me, and I am deeply grateful to all of you.
Thank you both again for your kind support and concern.
Take care and many many cheers!
I discovered your site a couple of days ago and have been reading voraciously.
I think your analysis would be helped by reading Political Ponerology by Andrew M. Lobaczewski, the reason that I say this is because your second scenario gave me reason to think that you are describing the phenomenon which said book is about.
Anyways awesome site, keep up the excellent work.
Very interesting analysis … I ve discovered your blog recently, I read the seven topics about Russia and Islam, it was really interesting. But I have some comments :
A little presentation. I m Moroccan (you mentioned morocco many times by the way), Muslim, sunnite even if I don t like to say that, since it s a strong way to divide the Muslim world. From here, we know too few things about Russia, only what we saw in west oriented tv about Soviet Union and Russia and what bad guy could be Putin about human rights for example :) morocco is in the western camp since the colonization of the country by France, and I don t believe the country got his full independence, only apparently but not in decisions
The people here are 98% Muslims sunnite malikite (one of the four official schools in the sunnite world, a moderate one) and there are lot of Sufis here
But just like you described about orthodoxs in Russia, 98% declare they are Muslims Sunni, but a lot of them live as in western, without caring a lot about religion
Anyway, the fact that people feel they are part of Muslim world makes the general opinion here to be a global hate about USA, Israel and in general the west. There is here a total opposition about the political decisions about the west and the feelings of people here. For example, there is a general believe that morocco collaborate a lot with Israel, but the officials can t officialize that because it could cause lot of problems.
And I believe that s quite the same thing in all the Muslim world, just like in Jordan and Indonesia that you mentioned.
Globally I think that you forgot some stuffs in your articles about Russia and Islam.
Your complete description about Russia is very instructive, I learned a lot about Russia, but the analysis about the Muslim world is too superficial. Your conclusions about the relation Russia Islam are as a consequence superficial too
When you speak about a sunni world as corrupted and controlled by the west block, I believe it s far from the truth. And when you say the chii world is fighting for his independence, it s too schematic.it s too white and black. I believe it s often grey
In the Sunni world, I believe that most of the people are against Israel, for Palestine, and then, for Hezbollah, for Syria, and Iran that today resist
The only difference between Sunnis and chia is that chia were for so long persecuted, they developed a particular leadership based on that resistance culture, specially in Lebanon and Iran
And in the other side, the problem is that the Sunnis leaders are too afraid to loose their seats, their privileges … And they accepted that neo colonialism of the willing, since chia aren t afraid about their privileges and seats since they didn’t t have any!!
It s of course very schematic, very simplistic. But the idea I want to express is that this Sunni and chii apparent division is the best thing it could happen to the Muslim world, since it make the Muslim world still alive!! When one part is being apathic and afraid, and accept the foreign willing, the other part is fighting for the whole Muslim world!
That s true also about Palestine. The chia have been given everything they wanted since they give up on Palestine. And they refused (I of course speak about their leaders). Even if Palestine is mostly Sunni
So my believe is that Sunni and chii are all Muslims, the only division I see is here is between the leaders, not between people
Saying that, I come to the point : my believe is that what is happening now about Hezbollah, Syria, and specially about Iran is the first crack in the wall built by the west to conquer the Muslim world. And what have done Russia to save Syria is the second crack. Now, leaders I the Muslim world begin to believe that there is a second way, different from a slavery to the west. It s maybe beginning in Egypt, maybe in the gulf, maybe in Ukraine too. Something new is taking place. And then, is the resistance axis show its strength, I strongly believe the alliances will change, and the west will loose a lot of countries, in the Muslim world and in the world
The Wahhabi phenomenon is a drama today in the Muslim world, but I believe it will leave as fast as it took place, with the Saudi regime.
Last, what I wanted to express is that the chia are today in front in the fight for freedom, thanks to their leaders, but Sunni are fighting too differently, and they loose much more too. And personally I feel more represented by nasrallah than by Saudi or Qatari leaders. Don t believe that chia are fighting alone, the Syrian soldiers are mostly Sunni … And the first target of takfiris are Sunni opponents and moderate people
If there will be a big alliance between Russia and Islam, and I believe that too, it would be an alliance between Russia and the resistant leaders, Sunni and chii, Iranian, Syrian, Lebanese, but also maybe Algerian, maybe Egyptian, and maybe even Jordan or Saudi if they change their leadership and policy
What an interesting time we are living, that s true, and what s dangerous too, and difficult to predict.
I m sorry for my bad English, it s not my native language
And thanks for your articles, it was really instructive
@Anonymous:When you speak about a sunni world as corrupted and controlled by the west block, I believe it s far from the truth. And when you say the chii world is fighting for his independence, it s too schematic. it s too white and black. I believe it s often grey
Let me ask you this: how many Sunni political movements have openly expressed their support for Assad? How many Sunni leaders have opposed the fact that the Syrian seat at the ICC has been given to the insurgents? I know of one: Islamic Jihad in Palestine. Are there any other?
The type of Sunni political Islam embodied by Sayyed Qutb – which was progressive and anti-imperialist, has largly been replaced by a conservative type of Sunni political Islam embodied by the Saudis or al-Qaradawi who have a MUCH bigger following than, say, Sheikh Imran Hosein. Is that not true?
the Syrian soldiers are mostly Sunni
yes, but their officer corps is mostly Alawi.
And the first target of takfiris are Sunni opponents and moderate people
Now that I agree with 110%! Especially in Russia and the Russian Caucasus where traditional Sunni are dying in great numbers murdered by the Takfiri shaitans.
Look, I am not saying that Shia->good or Sunni->bad. Akhmad Kadyrov is Sunni, so was Sayyed Qutb, so was Malcolm X and so are my friends from Kazakhstan. What I am saying is that a) in the current political situation the Sunni political elites are by and large coopted and controlled by Anglo-Zionist interests and b) Sunni Muslims are far more suceptible to Anglo-Zionist propaganda then the Shia. When I see how most Sunnis have totally accepted the Anglo-Zionist narrative about Chechnia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Libya and Syria it is hard not to feel despair. Again, to my knowledge the only Sunni organized armed resistance movement who did not side with the liver-eaters in Syria is the (very small) Islamic Jihad in Palestine. That’s it. Please correct me if I am wrong, ok?
I m sorry for my bad English, it s not my native language
Your English is excellent and you have nothing to apologize for. Besides, I write with so many spelling mistakes, typos and bad grammer that I really could not be critical of anybody anyway :-)
Many thanks and kind regards,
You re true, there aren t many Sunni organizations that support Syria, but most Sunnis in the world does support Syria!
I can maybe talk also about Algeria … And a lot of Sunni imams, but no important Sunni organization, you re true. For that, I have 2 explanations :
1. The very powerful intellectual terrorism and economic pressure from radical leaders (Qatar and Saudi Arabia). There are so many rumors about a lot of muslim regimes that support Syria in silence, fearing to face the same future than saddam, kaddhafi and so many others. Jordan for example clearly participate to the Syrian war after the us ultimatum and the given funds from Saudi
2. Sunni world Isn t clerical like chia. There are no unique leadership like you can see in chii world. Wali fakih is today strengthening chia and unifying them under one commandment. Hassan nasrallah admit that he “religiously” obey to wali al fakih. It s a strength since the leaders are free. In the Sunni world, there are no leadership. There are a lot of groups and ideologies, no structure
Before, this was a strength of the Islam, when official imams did wrong, there were others that rejected their statements and preserved the original Islam.
Since today, people that reject the Wahhabi vision are still in the Muslim world, but they are too weak, and they are killed and persecuted
When the Saudi will be kicked of Arabia, you ll see that Sunni resistants will appear. Just like the pan Arabian movement took place in Egypt and Syria in 60s. It was in the Sunni world that it took place. It wash t a religious movement, but it was an independence project that failed
Today you re true, the Sunni world is in a bad position, but the good thing is that it s only a leadership crisis, and not at all a structural problem. We suffer from a cancer named Wahhabism, and I believe the healing will come from chia.
And if you compare the situation today with the situation 10 years ago, I think it s much better now! The axis of resistance will soon integrate Iraq, maybe Egypt, Syria will be victorious and therefore unbeatable, what doesn’t t kill you makes you stronger …
Yes today, the resistance is lead by Shia but we only need a second abdennasser or a Saladin to unify the Muslim world. Since we still have this leadership crisis, we will be susceptible to Zionist propaganda
And if the next Saladin is nasrallah, that s perfect! I believe that we must not devide the Muslim world between Sunni and chia. Nasrallah is very popular in the Sunni world, maybe even the most popular !
That s why I think that we should have a panoramic vision, not only count how much organisations support Syria or not. We should see what people think, want, it s more important. Alliances are changing, the popular conviction is staying
By the way, I heard Hezbollah created a Sunni section … That s very instructive. Sunni chia division is a wrong way to analyse the Muslim world
Your second take on Russia’s political development begins with a shocking pronouncement: “Historically, Russia has always been an objective ally of Western imperialism, and this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.”
Really? I am not a historian, far an expert or serious scholar of Russian history, but on its face, it seems that Russia has always been the stumbling block of Western imperialism, sometimes its outright enemy. Russia did not share in the carving up of Asia, Africa or Latin America. To the extent that it headed an empire, it was a contiguous empire that blocked the further expansion of Western, or for that matter Ottoman control.
In fact, the great fear in Western Europe was that of “The Bear” overrunning Europe itself, a fear that persisted from the Metternich alliance through the world wars, Another nightmare of the imperialists west of Deutschland was a potential alliance between Russia and Germany, which did not materialize because neither power could control or trust the other Germany and Western Europe in general would have militated to make Russia into its Latin America, even while Russia would overshadow Germany.
Now the EU and NATO. U.S. imperialism in particular would become the longest and most persistent antagonist to Russia, even though Russia had generally ended up in an alliance with the U.S., from aiding its revolution against the British empire, to helping save it from British invasion during the Civil war, to World Wars I and II. Attempts to invade Russia were made by Napoleon and Hitler, with encouragement initially from the West.
During the Soviet days, Moscow was heavily entwined with national liberation struggles and played a strong role in the disintegration of the outright colonial empires of the British and the French. By developing its own nuclear arsenal, it helped deter Western, hegemonic U.S. imperialism from actually implementing nuclear holocaust. It held the U.S.-led imperialists at bay in Korea, and gave indispensable aid without which the expulsion of U.S. imperialists forces in Vietnam would not have been possible.
Even today, with the Soviet Union/Russian Empire broken up into fragments, and absent any explicit inspiration toward any outlook leading to revolution in the West, the U.S. and its European allies have tried to grab the Ukraine in a coup, as a dagger to the “soft underbelly” of Russia, but with the influence of Russia, the Dombass has become ungovernable to the Nazi-tipped Kiev junta, which is a regime of Western imperialist puppets.
Given its unconquerable size and mass, situated where it is, it is geopolitically bound to be an opponent of Western imperialism, not accidentally, as the Marxist-Leninists used to say.
I am reading this article on may 24 in 2015 and you were right, for god’s sake you were right. It is an awesome work the one you had done. I am glad of reading such an analist. Finaly I would like to add that here in South America the papist like me are joining the global resistance against the Empire (Evidence? Our Argentinian pope Francisco is changing the pro-liberal church that our european counterparts in Europe had made since the middle XIX century with the fall of Rome to the liberal Italian movements).