Results of the Nagorno-Karabakh war continue shaping the balance of power of the South Caucasus. The ceasefire regime established as a result of the Russian diplomatic intervention and the deployment of the Russian peacekeeping force in the region nears the end of its first week.
As the outcome of the war, Azerbaijan achieved an important victory over Armenian forces and seized the symbolic Armenian stronghold of Shusha. Baku and Yerevan also reached an agreement that is set to allow Azerbaijan to return districts lost during the first Karabakh war excluding the Lachin corridor as well as finally establish a transport link between Azerbaijan’s mainland and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, a landlocked Azerbaijani exclave bordering Armenia, Turkey and Iran. The latest development is in fact even more important for Azerbaijani national interests than any propaganda achievements in the war with the Armenians. This will not only allow to finally establish a ground link between the main territory Azerbaijan and the country’s autonomous region, but also strengthen economic and cultural cooperation with Turkey, a traditional Azerbaijani ally. Ankara, together with Israeli weapon suppliers, played an important role in the Azerbaijani victory through providing its forces with weapons, ammunition, intelligence and military advisers and specialists that helped to plan and turn into reality the Karabakh advance.
For years, Turkey has been employing the “two states, one nation” concept in its relations with Azerbaijan as a part of the wider claim to be the formal, military and spiritual leader of the so-called Turkic world and the Muslims in the Greater Middle East and Central Asia in general. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who sees himself as the Sultan of the New Neo-Ottoman Empire, does not hide Turkish plans to annex territories of northern Syria and northern Iraq, where Ankara already has a permanent military presence. Azerbaijan is seen by Erdogan and his circle as a logical and important part of this Greater Turkey project with a particular autonomy. Therefore, the Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan and the further expansion of the economic, political and cultural links between the countries is a logical step in this plan. During the past years, Ankara has repeatedly announced the plans to build a new railway road to Nakhchivan. Now, the preparations for the implementation of this project will likely reach their finishing straight.
At the same time, there are some factors often ignored by pro-Turkish analysts boasting about the great Neo-Ottoman victory in Karabakh. First of all, the control over the so desired by Turkey ground link with Azerbaijan will be in the hands of the Russians under the Moscow-brokered deal between Baku and Yerevan. The control over the transport link between Nakhchivan and the Azerbaijani mainland will be exercised by the Border Service of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). At the same time, the Russian peacekeeping force will also control the corridor between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, and a large part of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, including the largest regional city Stepanakert.
Russian forces supported by combat helicopters, electronic warfare systems, BTR-80A armoured personnel carriers and various armoured vehicles of other types already established 25 observation points (18 permanent and 7 temporary) in the region. One of the posts is in fact located at the gates of Shusha. Additionally to the 1960-strong contingent in Karabakh, the Russian military also created a gathering center, in other words a temporary military base, in the Armenian city of Goris, near the border. Battle tanks and multiple rocket launching systems spotted in the area indicate that the operation there involves additional means and forces. Moscow is also creating a special humanitarian center for Karabakh. The center will be controlled by Russia and overseen by the FSB thus cutting off the possibility of looting of humanitarian aid for the region.
Taking into account the deep crisis of the current pro-Western Armenian government, led by Nikol Pashinyan who is still hiding in some basement in Yerevan, the control over Nagorno-Karabakh territories, which should not been returned to Azerbaijan as the part of the November 10 deal, has been in fact transferred to Russia.
Now, Russia has officially established a military presence on the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan for the next 5 years. This term also can be prolonged under the existing deal. This unprecedented development for the modern South Caucasus caused little happiness in Ankara causing the Turkish attempt to promote the idea of the deployment of some ‘Turkish peacekeepers’ to the combat zone. However, all what it achieved was the draft plan for the creation of a joint Russian-Turkish ceasefire monitoring center on the territory of Azerbaijan. According to the Russian foreign minister, the center will be located in the part of the territory that is not close to Karabakh and no field missions are planned. The posture of Azerbaijan, which did not support the Turkish field deployment in Karabakh, in this unfortunate situation for Ankara became an unpleasant surprise for Turkish commentators.
Furthermore, Baku demonstrated an unexpected softness by shifting the schedule of the Armenian withdrawal from the contested region. Under the initial deal, the Kalbajar district was set to be transferred to Azerbaijan by November 15, a top aide to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that the deadline was extended till November 25. These steps show the readiness of the Azerbaijani side for the constructive actions in the framework of the existing Yerevan-Moscow-Baku format. Summing up, it seems that Mr. Aliyev is not going to pay back by turning Azerbaijan into the province of Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman Empire. In this case, the closer cooperation with Russia, which is also an important economic and security partner of Azerbaijan, is an apparent solution.
It is going to be big question. Is Aliev ready to sacrifice souverenity of Azerbaijan for the sake of Erdogan neo-ottoman fantasies.
Erdogan is probably convinced that Aliev owes him payback and that in that sense Baku can be only a capitol of Azerbaijan as one province of new Ottoman Empire.
I do not think that Aliev is ready for this. I would not be surprised to see Aliev to start distancing official Baku from Ankara to certain degree.
I also think that Baku should move closer to Moscow
But we will see…
Two things stand out:
RF has deftly put itself in good standing with ordinary Armenians, especially Kharabakhians, by setting up a humanitarian centre in N-K.
Reports say refugees are returning to Stepanakert. RF is also trying to get international organisations, ICRC, UNESCO, etc involved in the effort, thus fortifying it.
Aliev has maintained, at least for the moment, his country’s traditional non-aligned stance between the West and Russia. He owes Turkey but has not embraced it fully. I’m no dance expert but the dancing between the two is more like ‘shalakho’ than ‘tango’.
It was quite obvious that Aliev is no fool, but a very skillful politician. He accepted Turkish aid, but did not reduce himself to the level of a Turkish stooge. He is now using Russia as a guarantor of Azerbaijan’s sovereign status. More important, he did not fall into the Western trap of setting up Azerbaijan as a mercenary tool to be used against Russia where the intent, obviously, was for Russia to be drawn into a war. Russia is now a peacekeeper, controlling the situation in the Caucuses. This was certainly not what NATO had in mind. It has yet again been outmaneuvered by Putin.
As for Nikol Pashinyan, he is now paying the price for becoming a Western stooge, something Aliev is not. For all of Azerbaijans aid from Turkey and Israel, it’s victory would probably not have been so great had Pashinyan not prevented the bulk of the Armenian military from entering Nagorno-Karabakh. He casued immense damage to Armenia.
Now it is time for Russia to act with no regards to the USA or NATO, liberate Donbass. The NKR is a proof how to make quick decisions into victory.
Poor Americans have different matters to solve. This is far bigger than a war clash: https://welovetrump.com/2020/11/15/rep-louie-gohmert-says-u-s-military-has-raided-scytl-server-facility-in-frankfurt-germany-hammer-scorecard-dominion-scytl/
Despite the misleading narrative being peddled here, the Turkic alliance of AZE/TUR is not in retreat but in the contrary, being solidified.
Consider the following..
There have been numerous TUR high officials visiting Baku in the last several weeks ranging from Foreign Min to head of TUR armed forces as well as head MIT. How many RU officials have visited (or been invited) to Baku? or Yerevan even??
I wouldnt be in too much of a rush to pop the champagne bottle if i were RU because now they have to come in and babysit a shitshow that has little real relevance for Putin. Besdies it being a financial no win, there will be no tangible benefit but only a liability for when things go wrong. Erdo is laughing all the way to his pallace as now he can sit back, let some one else guard his hen house and it wont cost him anything.
Ontop of this newfound luck he also now has a direct road link to Baku thanks to point 9 in the newly signed agreement. Basically, Armenia basically sold out their own national sovereignty by allowing a new corridor linking Nahchivan to AZE proper.
And as many will breathlessly point out “but it will be under RU control”, yup, not Armenian so no sovereignty..
Putin seems wiling to pay this price because he is acheiving what he and Erdo both desperately want, keeping US/EU at arms length and completely locked out.
I dont think Putin hates Erdo as most try to portray otherwise why sell him S400?, of send your gas through TU? or build a nuclear power plant?
Erdo is Putins best enemy whom he knows from how many theatre of conflicts is this now? 4?
Erdo may try and pull a shifty move at the poker table but at least he wont do a US tantrum, smash all the chips and flip the table as he storms away.
As for the last point
“set to be transferred to Azerbaijan by November 15, a top aide to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that the deadline was extended till November 25”
Surely Southfront knows this was changed due to the fact that the road itself is poorly, in some parts single lane and that due to season, is starting to get impacted by snow making travel even harder.
But nope, some how its a sign of Aliyevs weakness and caving in… uhuh
I agree with your perspective, and that the english-language narrative is always different than any other.. Living in China makes it clear that the western media has an agenda, fits their narrative in pursuit of this agenda, and reality be damned.. They are nearly always wrong about China..
It was not acknowledged that the 6-week campaign in NK was directed by Turkish generals, with their Idlib militants being the decisive factor.. With a pause in the Idlib fighting, these militants are free to discover the various Transcaucasus republics for future reference..
The complex nature of the strategy between Mr Putin and the Sultan of Swing will probably never be aired in public, but Erdogan seems to be in the ascendency after his quick win in NK..
Kudos to you Eddie, indeed it was 3 TUR Generals who orchestrated the whole NK campaign.
It is worth mentioning that AZE high command dismissed their standing head of defense prior to hostilities as he was against the participation/involvement of TUR influence.
As history will record, it was a prudent decision to embrace TUR influence.
However, i will take exception to the oft speculated jihadi’s of which there has been no proof..NONE
While much chatter was made of such an accusation, very little proof is in evidence.
A random clip of some poor fellow in khaki blabering about what he says took place can not be taken as gospel truth, as its can be called ACTING
I don’t think it’s a win for Turkey as you claim. They wanted to be established in the Caucasus but they couldn’t.
Also, it’s not his region that the RF controls now. It’s an Armenian one. Nothing will happen inside that territory according to erdogan’s wishes. Despite these conflicts, turkey’s economy is on the brink of a crisis, and erdogan’s day’s are limited.
It is actually all about de facto Russian complicity in in the surrender of territories, burning of churches and expulsion of orthodox Armenians from their lands. It is again Ustasha and RUStasha, working together as they did in the Balkans where Russians gained precious experience working against the hated Serbian enemy.
Some comments on here are really stuck back in time
Soviet Union ended 30 years ago
And the countries that have come out of that union have had varying degrees of success
They all make their own choices and have to deal with the consequences!!!
It’s not all about Russia
Armenia made the choice to elect a western puppet who adopted all the hall marks of the anti Russian west.
-NGOs took over
-closing Russian language schools
-Getting rid of Russian media
-Sacking military with connection to Russia
-arresting a member of the CSTO compromising the integrity of the organisation
– voting against Russia; do that they would not be able to return to PACE
– alienating Iran also by opening an embassy in Israel ( Israel still sold weapons to Azerbaijan))))
There are a whole list of things Pashiyan did all in service to the west who have kind words but did nothing to stop Turkey or Azerbaijan ( France and USA in NATO could have threatened Turkey)
The west wanted this war to hurt Russia
But Russia was not drawn into a war
And people come here and blame Russia for the failure of Armenia to remember Their geography and who their enemies are!!!!
– Establishing American Biological Laboratory
Absolutely James, why is it that RU is expected to FIX every regional mess not of her making?
Why should RU spend her youth, blood and treasure to prop up dysfunction not of her making?
Why is there such chatter that Putin needs to come in guns blazing where ever there is a conflict of Zio origin?
In Syria, he has propped up Assad, and the whole world has shrugged their shoulder..meh!!
Libya, put his lot behind a warlord who lost a war of his own making and is now at best at a stalemate.
Iran, no war yet but is still stuck in a quagmire.
Venezuela, too far goegraphically to effect any real change
Armenia, well…they made their bed fairly clearly when Pashinyan was chosen by $oros, so why bother?
Because if u dont push for a buffer, claims will be made on Russian territory proper
If Baku move close to Moscov that will be a very big geopolitical win for Russia!
Baku knows that Ankara wants to subjugate it. Their best bet is to stay close to Russia. Iran also does not want more problems in this area and inroads by Israel.
Contrary to the cheap words coming out of Ankara, Israel and Turkey have always been allies – witness Syria.
I agree with this Turkey and Israel even traded Syrian oil.
Also Bosnian Croat makes a good point about Armenia allowing the USA to have chemical research facility.
////// I have a question however about the idea put forward in the article above ; that Turkey will build a railway between the two parts of Azerbaijan?
This may be what Turkey wants …..but this would block Armenia’s connection to Iran which they really need as Georgia their other neighbour proved to be on the side of Turkey and Azerbaijan (this leads me to think this war was approved by NATO)
I thought a road was being suggested in the ceasefire document not a railway -and this would be managed by the Russians as the road would go through Armenia ?
Can someone confirm if this was the case
There is no demand of any specific infrastructure requirements in the agreement, only that a “corridor” is opened, at best, this would mean a road.
The rail road was a whimsical reference made by external chatter, pipe line duplication was the other suggestion, not in the agreement, not gonna happen
Nothing is ever as bad…or as good…as it first appears to be.
As one door closes; another opens.