by Nat South for the Saker Blog
HMS Defender’s highly visible transit past the Crimea coastline, off Cape Fiolent, is the latest bout of heated tensions in the Black Sea and in this article, I’d like to present some aspects relating to UNCLOS and consider some interesting issues that have been revealed following the incident.
The UK sailed a warship, HMS Defender, inside 12nm territorial waters near to the main Russian naval base of Sevastopol. The location of the event was subsequently corroborated by satellite imagery and AIS data. Also nearby was the Dutch warship HHLMS ‘Evertsen’, (not in territorial waters apparently), according to radio communications. Still in the Black Sea at the was the US Navy destroyer, ‘USS Laboon’, (which has now since left the Black Sea).
The incident was quickly escalated via the media and on social media. Interestingly, a BBC journalist crew and a Daily Mail reporter were on board the vessel and the BCC showed footage and gave accounts of the events, (more on this later).
The Russian MoD was VERY quick in releasing information, its version of events, which ultimately caused a flurry of lurid headlines, given the reported spectacular nature of actions, including the firing of warning shots, taken to get the Royal Navy destroyer to leave territorial waters. Although the journalist onboard reported that the shots were out of range, the UK MoD denied that this happened, (see tweet below).
The whole package of information needs to be treated with a pinch of salt and to emphasise that there some kernels of truth are hidden away in the mass of posts, articles and reports.
Part 2 — dates and events
Some more context with regards to the political dynamics at play, needs to be added as well, given that:
- Self-declared adversarial state, (part of current state policy) and NATO member, who consider Russia as a near-peer adversary.
- 22 June: The Nazi operation to invade the USSR started in 1941.
- 22 June: Signing of joint UK-Ukrainian military agreement onboard HMS Defender in Odessa on military.
- Ongoing NATO activities and exercises in the region, (Sea Defender 21 just finished.
- Large-scale ‘Sea Breeze 21’ soon to happen, (28 June — 10 July). The U.S. lead annual will be headed by Ukraine will lead 32 countries in a naval exercise including Israel, Brasil, Japan and South Korea, (personnel, aircraft or ships);
- Annual MCIS— ongoing in Moscow.
- Signing end of May of a Russia and UK protocol updating the bilateral IncSea agreement.
Durable and worthwhile, (long-game) diplomacy got kicked into touch, several times over, considering some of the events and dates listed above, (22 June in particular, as it is a highly significant day, so the timing could be viewed in a jaundiced manner by Russia).
A very poorly thought-out stunt pulled by the UK government, that could have easily backfired, just over a pretext of demonstrating the UK’s policy on non-recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, via several nautical miles. The Russian Navy head called the incident: ” a crude, ops-ended provocation”.
Back to the past and present, one of naval gunboat ‘diplomacy’ to score futile points in the “rule-based international order”. This one incident has temporarily but very visibly overshadowed diplomat events such as MSC or the post work after the Biden-Putin Summit, as it once more shows the disparity between rhetoric and actions on the grounds. Certainly, Washington would have known of the UK intentions relating to the passage of HMS Defender, (see later).
Part 2 – UNCLOS aspects
It isn’t quite an open and shut cases of innocent passage transit, as some would like to portray and leave like that. The transit was vigorously challenged by the Russian authorities, more intensely than the last time that a British destroyer, HMS Dragon tried in the same area back in autumn 2020, (but without the attendant intense media storm). There are some factors to consider that are different to HMS Dragon’s voyage, (more later), which have a bearing on how this incident developed in the way it did.
There are several provisions in UNCLOS that are specific to innocent passage, (Article 17 outlines the right and Article 18 defines it). In a nutshell, naval ships as well as commercial ships may be permitted “innocent passage”, as a key right under UNCLOS, but there is a list of caveats attached. As always with UNCLOS, there’s more than what first meets the eye.
On the face of it, HMS Defender was proceeding as per the right and definition under UNCLOS. Western experts, media outlets and politicians leave like that. The consensus generally is on ‘innocent passage” as a right enshrined in UNCLOS, as long it genuinely innocent. Of course, a coastal state can respond or resort to this if innocent passage is deemed not to fully meet the criteria of innocent passage. Zooming in on Article 19 (2), which outlines the situations when a coastal state can act:
- (a) any threat or use of force against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of the coastal State, or in any other manner in violation of the principles of international law embodied in the Charter of the United Nations;
- (b) any exercise or practice with weapons of any kind;
- (c) any act aimed at collecting information to the prejudice of the defence or security of the coastal State; (x)
- (d) any act of propaganda aimed at affecting the defence or security of the coastal State; (x)
- (e) the launching, landing or taking on board of any aircraft;
- (f) the launching, landing or taking on board of any military device;
- (g) the loading or unloading of any commodity, currency or person contrary to the customs, fiscal, immigration or sanitary laws and regulations of the coastal State;
- (h) any act of willful and serious pollution contrary to this Convention;
- (i) any fishing activities;
- (j) the carrying out of research or survey activities;
- (k) any act aimed at interfering with any systems of communication or any other facilities or installations of the coastal State; (x)
- (l) any other activity not having a direct bearing on passage. (x)
(x) is my denotation — possibility of where the coastal state could deem the passage of HMS Defender as being non-innocent). Explanations for this are given later on.
It has to be noted that Russia took the steps as contained in Article 25, to prevent and force the warship to leave territorial waters. Additionally, a number of examples are outlined later on in this article that highlight the potential categories that fall under a non-innocent passage, as also noted under Article 30 of UNCLOS.
Bearing in mind that a combination of Russian Coastguard and naval ships were shadowing the two NATO warships that had left Odessa in Ukraine, movements and activities would have been duly logged by the escorting ships.
Part 3 — Certain aspects
Quick run through of some of the issues to consider:
a. Gunnery exercises (as initially mentioned in the radio comms) taking place in nearby area, (seen as an exclusive pretext some Western Think Tank experts and pundits), but the publication and the radio comms between the Russian coastguard and HMS Defender, indicate the application of Article 24 (2)
Article 24 (2)
Taking note of this part of Article 25: “suspend temporarily in specified areas of its territorial sea the innocent passage of foreign ships if such suspension is essential for the protection of its security, including weapons exercises. Such suspension shall take effect only after having been duly published.”
(Yet the referred published NAVAREA expired on 21 June).
The closed areas were mentioned in many articles when they were first published back in April 2021, the Kommersant published an article including a map of these areas:
Back in April 2021, a coastal warning No 152/21 was issued “on the temporary suspension of the right of innocent passage for foreign warships and state-owned vessels” for the Black Sea near the entrance to the Kerchenska Strait and around the southern coast of the Crimean Peninsula during the period from April 24 to 31 October 2021. This was followed by another warning No 0392/21.
Effectively, Russia created an obstacle and limitations on only navigation of warships and government-owned vessels. (The aspect that the think tank experts and pundits miss completely). To note, that this is situation of suspending the right to innocent passage is provided under international law, not you would hear much about it, under the status of “occupying power”, irrespective of whether Russia is the ‘coastal state’ or not. This status is confirmed by the UN Assembly Resolution 68/292, (For further details – legal opinion provided by Stefan Tamlon on Russia’s restrictions of warships in the Black Sea). This maritime precedent was set by the U.S. in 2004 in Iraq. Thus, the current administration of a territory is a distinct element as to the question whether Russia has lawfully gained Crimea or not.
b. No prior notification or authorisation for transit. — Contentious and thorny issue all round. Not going down any of those rabbit holes now.
c. Initial disregard of multiple radio requests to change course, followed by refusal to comply with directions. (Radio comms) (Just that alone would suffice getting an Article 30 situation requirement to “leave the territorial sea immediately’).
The catch-all for the coastal state to use: “any other activity not having a direct bearing on passage. “.
One thing is for sure, Russia has not stated publicly the reasons why it took issue to the transit of HMS Defender, under UNCLOS.
d. The UK stated that HMS Defender was passing through Ukrainian waters in a commonly used and internationally recognised transit route. (see image).
There is a Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) in area, (internationally recognised by the IMO), so this is what is being referred to and referred to in Article 25 of UNCLOS. This is also mentioned in the BBC report:
Screenshot of BBC report @0:56sec https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57583363
However, the use of a TSS as part of an innocent passage is somewhat made irrelevant given the BBC report that consider the ship making a “deliberate move to make a point to Russia.” Not exactly innocent passage in the cited context given. (See also point 2 on mode of operation below to see how the concept of using an internationally or legally (as the BBC reported) recognised transit route got mangled and made a farce of. This is not the same as transits through the Dover Straits, (straits is the keyword here and there is a huge difference in re UNCLOS rules).
A TSS is used to regulate the traffic at busy, confined waterways or around capes, notably for commercial ships, and the one off Folient Cape partly runs just inside the 12 NM. Yet, via the Coastal Warnings, the TSS from Cape Khersones to Cape Aitodor was out of bounds to NATO and other foreign warships. HMS Defender duly ignored these yet deliberately chose to voluntarily comply with an IMO-approved routing for a short period of time that happens to skirt inside the 12NM, to validate its ‘innocent passage” claim under Article 22 of UNCLOS. Warships can voluntarily comply with a TSS in the same way as they can comply with AIS requirements.
According to the Russian coastguard video screenshot of the radar screen, the two ships’ tracks and projected course are clearly visible.
Close up of screen
Strange indeed, that HNMS Evertsen managed not to need to pass through the TSS in the same way as HMS Defender, in order to sail from Ukraine to Georgia.
Part 4 -Things of interest to note
The presence of a BBC and Daily Mail journalist ought not be ignored, one it reaffirms that the BBC is the state broadcaster, any information, reporting would be deliberate slanted. As such, the Russian military provocation will be recorded and reported. It does make me wonder if the ‘innocent passage’ wasn’t that innocent, if the BBC gets a spectacular scoop, which could be seen as being as an “act of propaganda aimed at affecting the defence or security of the coastal State” under UNCLOS. (The box has now been ticked for the next incursion by a British warship) — handy to note response by journalist that it is common to have journalists on ships when in the Black Sea. Nice for the UK MoD to have handily arranged press coverage but also at the same time, clumsily bolstered a number of legal implications for any future FONOP challenge.
“Our correspondent, who had been invited on board the ship before the incident happened, saw more than 20 aircraft overhead and two Russian coastguard boats which at times were just 100m (328ft) away.”
The BBC reporter outlines the events in an article:
Cringeworthy headline from the Daily Mail
(Notice the cannon shots, those warning shots fired at a very safe distance & elevation by the Russian Coastguard, which the UK MoD and Pentagon spokesman claim as Russian lies).
2. Mode of operation
The first thing to stand out is this part mentioned by the BBC journalist:
“The crew were already at action stations as they approached the southern tip of Russian-occupied Crimea. Weapons systems on board the Royal Navy destroyer had already been loaded.”
“Already at Action Stations”, not a normal mode of operations for a naval ship on an ‘innocent-passage, add in the fact that weapons systems had been loaded, (something more than likely to have been noticed by the Russian ships shadowing the destroyer). Double ‘no’ normal mode of operating a warship, jeopardizing and likely voiding its ‘innocent passage” by having carried out these actions alone.
Normal mode of operation is the basis for an innocent passage, otherwise it is likely fall under one of the categories listed in Article 19(2).
“As they approached the southern tip”, meaning as they entered the TSS parallel to the coast, (see note about TSS above) on a “routine transit” at action stations, (explanation). (See 0:13s in BBC report, “hands to action stations”).
Passage can only be declared to be innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State. Is it peaceful, is it in good order for a warship to transit with weapons loaded and at action stations? No, not in my book and if an incident like this happened with another non-US or non-NATO vessel, the would be absolute howling from the rafters on the negative behaviour and activities.
Another important aspect to consider re Article 19 is: “any act aimed at collecting information to the prejudice of the defence or security of the coastal State;”. There is no information in open sources or media to suggest that this was being done. However, if the crew were already at ‘action stations’, then part of this is collect information on military activities in the area, at sea and in the air, so it could be construed that this was indeed happening. Certainly not “normal mode of operation” either.
Whether it was prejudicial to the coastal State, that’s open to debate, but the timing and location do not do anything to reduce tensions or improve security conditions. Another element to consider is the deployment of an US intelligence gathering military aircraft in the area, certainly collecting information on the Russian activities and response at the same time. If HMS Defender was really on an innocent passage, then it is just coincidental that the US military is flying in the area? Not to mention what HNLMS ‘Evertsen’ could provide in support on the other side of the 12NM limit if in area, (judging by Russian radio comms, the ship was in the area and the wording used by the RN watchkeeper, “ both of our vessels” 0:55s radio comms on video).
I’m not going to discuss the maritime security aspect as viewed by Russia to the incursion of an UK warship, or the relationship of the UK and Ukraine, as I presume the reader will be aware of the hostile nature and geopolitical environment anyway.
The mission planners and commanding officer of HMS Defender knew what they were doing, by carrying out a mission, of a nature as to affect the security or welfare of the coastal state, to activate a military response, by carrying actions coming from a country that has Russia as adversarial state in its military doctrine, sailing under 12nm, from the main Russian Black Sea Fleet base.
Hubris and provocation.
Part 5 — Conclusion
There has been numerous controversial debate and international disputes relates to the innocent passage of warships since the early days of UNCLOS, the incident will be just one in the latest of events, fondly termed as a FONOPs by Washington.
The bottom line that the right of “innocent passage” will be invariably subject to the interpretation and application relevant to the national law adopted by the coastal state. The issue that blurs this is the recognition of sovereignty as a coastal state, (Ukrainian rather than Russian in this area). However, since there are so many nuances involved, it is too complex to outline it all here.
Proving a point based on selected application of international law norms, that suit the narrative and agenda, rather than to maintain or defuse overall tensions, was the objective of the Royal Navy ship, sabre-rattling and hubris well demonstrated. HMS Defender stated “mission confidence and not provocative”. No attempt to keep tensions at bay or to keep the door ajar for security detente. But the shots to do this were called from Whitehall.
To say that the British warship had international law on its side is ridiculous, by stating that it was in recognised international seaway but also at action stations, and while US and Dutch military units are operating in the area, is stretching the understanding of the concept of ‘innocent passage”. That’s just from the glimpse of information available in the public domain, but the story of the moral superiority of a ship on ‘innocent passage” is in tatters. This particular incident will undoubtedly set the baseline for any future challenges of this kind in the Black Sea. More trouble on the horizon is forecast for the next NATO warship.
12nm, black sea, coastal state, innocent passage, navigation, navigational warnings, russia, tensions, transit, tss, uk, ukraine, unclos
History repeats itself. This is the second time, that the British Empire tries to conquer Crimea. In the first Crimean War (19th Century), there were brutal wars on the Crimean peninsula between Russia and the United Kingdom. The British tried to gain control over the Black Sea. Among the war crimes was the British siege of the city of Sevastopol.
The current events are very obvious provocations against Russia. HMS Defender knew exactly they were entering Russian territory and actively ingnored all warnings from the Russian coast guard. They can be happy, that the vessel was not seized and the crew imprisoned. This was an aggressive attack against the Russian Federation.
It should have been seized,and held. Hopefully any repeat will be seized. As long as Russia only kicks them out they will keep doing that.
Exactly! I mean, how would the British feel, if a Russian war ship would rush into the coast of Southampton or Plymouth? You can be sure, they would instantly start a war against Russia. The Russians however are still playing very carefully – like the great Chess players they are. But the next move will be surely very unconfortable to the British fleet ;)
It would be fun to see a Russian cruiser exercising innocent passage through the Falklands en route from the Pacific to Cuba, for example.
Or how about Argentina exercising innocent passage with one of its warships en route from Rio Gallegos to Cape Town?
Or even better, both Argentinian and Russian warships passing and surrounding the Falklands. I mean, Buenos Aires could invite the Russians for some joined military excercises in their waters. With some Argentine vessels approaching Port Stanley and some Russian ones backing them I’m sure the British will leave the Black Sea quite quickly ;)
“You can be sure, they would instantly start a war against Russia”.
They can’t, as Russia is able within an hour to render the entire UK uninhabitable – while using only a small fraction of its thermonuclear arsenal.
Even bears and lions are intelligent enough to avoid humans carrying guns.
I am very disappointed with the Russian Military, It should have sunk the boat first and then discussed the outcome afterwards.
This incident has to be seen in the context of Europe moving closer to Russia. Both France and Germany have expressed indications of their desire to improve relations with Russia. Meanwhile poor little England is becoming more and more irrelevant.
Hence the provocation.
Hopefully the war mongering, self important Brits will be ignored and the adults will be able to improve the lives of Europeans and Russians alike.
“Europe moving closer to Russia”
I would love to see it but I’m just not seeing it…
There is a rift between UK and EU but they both have a very strong anti-Russian stance.
The problem lies in the russophobe Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) and Poland, that sabotage a good relationship with Russia. Other countries like Italy, Germany, Austria and France (and the Czech and Slovak republics to some extend) have more russophile tendencies and Bulgaria too. It really also depends on what governments are currently in power.
Poor fools think that they are still “Great Britain” where in fact GB would be more like global Britain. Always trying to dominate other countries. India, China South Africa. Well their time is well and truly over and they no longer rule the waves. Soon they will be relegated to the dust bin of History. This same Russia which sacrificed 25 Million of its own citizens defeating Nazi Germany Sving Britain in the process were the planning to attack Russia. What hypocrites and as for Churchill a real sicko indeed.
Several Russian officials have stated that the next British ship to try this stunt will be bombed. That will make life interesting for the crews.
The military has decided that bombs are not the best munition to use. They will use missiles next time. They can pinpoint damage which won’t be catastrophic as to loss of life aboard the doomed intruder.
Just remember that nearly every pilot in the Russia Aerospace Force has seen combat in Syria. They do excellent, precise missile work and bombing in tight quarters. That was how all the cities of Syria were returned to the government and people of Syria.
They probably can put a missile through the bow of the next British/NATO vessel that thinks Crimea isn’t Russian. Damage with limited casualties. Then a white flag and the crew taken as prisoners.
‘crew taken as prisoners’. A capital idea. Then perhaps they could reopen negotiations with Her Majesty’s government as regards Miss Skripal.
Splendid! They can of course and are most welcome to keep scumbag Skripal Senior, assuming he is still alive.
Hopefully, if provoked, the Russians can strike only the belligerent UK ship, and leave the other Euro NATO ships out of it, and thereby causing a split in NATO and freeing Europe from American military occupation.
Usual AS radar guided weapons are not “pinpoint”, they lock on the most radar reflective surface, so the hit would be amidships. Eventually a manually controlled optical guidance system, or LASER guidance with manually controlled target illumination, would have to be used to hit the desired part. Highest accuracy would still be from classical guns at short range, manually controlled, eventually with an inert round to limit damage.
In Nikita Sergejevitj Khrusjtjov’s times, the British HMS Defender would lay on the bottom of Black Sea, thus it would never had happen, because they knew Khrusjtjov was not a man you played games with.
Nikita Sergejevitj Khrusjtjov threw Britain out of Egypt by threatening to nuke London if they dont moved their arse out from the Suez war.
I know its not that easy. Its complicated, and I believe Kremlin will outsmart the gang this time too.
I will suggest a shkval missile. They will not even see it coming.
So the Brits went and provoked Russia right before the start of “Sea Breeze” military exercises in the Black Sea, involving US &32 other countries.
After seeing the Russia’s reaction, it wouldn’t surprise me if some countries’ military chiefs are now having second thoughts about participating in “SeaBreeze”..
The ship itself, HMS defender, has a twitter account and has come out with a new story that those bombs, that Russia dropped in the ship’s path, were actually “gunnery exercises”, for which Russia had “given advance warning to the maritime community”..so nothing to worry about…
nd that advanced warning would’nt be published here by any chance? Talking with forked tongue, as the Indians used to say.
Not sure the crew would have believed that as they were ready to pull the trigger. Sounds like onboard they have their own ww2 type remnant political officer…..hopefully they have read the Tass report from a couple of days prior where they reported on their readystate to defend Crimea eg missiles at ships. Maybe they should have read it before. Maybe the captain knew of it but did not tell the crew.
How typical! NATO plays the passive/aggressive card, all the rage today among the western wokester set. Help us world! We’ve been nakedly aggressed by those evil Russian boys! Can we cancel them please?
You have to wonder why the Brits are poking the Russian bear now? Is it because Germany is on the verge of becoming a part of the new Belt and Road Initiative along with Russia and China? It makes all the sense in the world for Germany to do this, and it makes those punitive sanctions the US has imposed on Russia totally obsolete. The AngloZionist Empire was always based on domination and exploitation. Maybe Eurasia is ready for trading arrangements based on mutual respect and cooperation. It can’t happen soon enough.
Sounds like they’re playing the part of US lapdog and testing Putin’s resolve in the wake of the recent summit, where Biden made not so veiled threats about “serious consequences” for Russian “acts of aggression.” Leave it to the cowards in DC to pawn off the passive aggressive act itself on their Brit lapdogs, as it allowed a small amount of deniability on their part in order to save whatever’s left of their rapidly diminishing “hegemonic credibility.”
Anyone who’s ever had to face down a schoolyard bully and his entourage knows what’s going on here. The US sent out a minor flunky to irritate its superior opponent in the vain hope that the opponent would back down without a fight. Failing that, it hoped that it could drum up a sufficient amount of sympathy from the schoolyard onlooker crowd to convince the superior opponent that they were in the wrong and to capitulate without a fight. Didn’t work. Back to square one for the schoolyard bully, who’s growing increasingly desperate and devoid of options now. The smart move would be to quit while he’s still even, but then again, the schoolyard bully was never known being especially smart.
Remember Tennyson’s Charge of the Light Brigade? The Brits have always been crazy about Crimea. It is after all part of the old Khazar stomping ground, the birthplace of Zionism.
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
“The Light Brigade reached the battery under withering direct fire and scattered some of the gunners, but they were forced to retreat immediately, and the assault ended with very high British casualties and no decisive gains.” (Wikipedia)
Nice comparison, but something tells me that the boys on that ship’s resolve isn’t nearly so steely as the soldiers’ of Tennyson’s day. We shall see soon enough I guess, since this is likely just the Prelude Stage of the ill-fated 2021 NATO Tour de Crimea. I hear the Russian team is especially strong this year.
Any incursion by NATO into the Black Sea will go nuclear within hours. Just as the Ashkenazim still have the hots for Crimea, they are also willing to bring humanity to an apocalyptic end. They are, after all, God’s “chosen” people, even though their roots are in what is now Ukraine and southern Russia, not Palestine.
Oddly, US Christian Zionists are in complete agreement with them on this. They are the heart and soul of the ReTrumplican Party and look for their fearless leader to be back in office by August. The My Pillow dude is planning a big celebration. Both Trump and Netanyahu are facing prison for their many crimes. Expect them to do the unthinkable, including WWIII, to stay in power. A redo of 9/11, coming right up, folks.
Perhaps the current equivalent of this reckless idiocy is…
“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Some one had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the DARK SEA
SAILED the six hundred.
And such a wonderful privilege and insight having an on the scene commenter of Auslander’s calibre leaving us with no illusions whatsoever as to what a giant tinderbox is being constructed. Have the Brits and much of Europe learned nothing in close to 200 years…rhetorical question! All they ever do is gorge themselves on their own propaganda.
Take care Auslander…my thoughts are very much with you!
My charming bride and I are often at Sapun Gorod, the ridge line overlooking The Valley of the Shadow of Death. Every nook and cranny of the death route is visible at Sapun Museum, which actually honors the final Soviet assault to take back Sevastopol which culminated in the city’s liberation on 09 May 1944. Trust me, Sevastopol has not forgotten anything from either war, and we still from time to time find Brit, French and Turk remains from the 1854 war. They are treated with the same respect as our boys and Germans and Romanians whom we find from the ‘last’ war, which looks more and more likely to be repeated shortly.
@Auslander, In 2015 I visited the French memorial in Sevastopol:
Not too far from Balaklava there is also a German military cemetery:
Yes, I know the German cemetery, we are there several times a year to lay flowers. Unfortunately Germany will not allow us to put their soldiers we find to rest in that cemetery, they say we must contact Kiev for permission and payment. No way will be do that, so we simply keep them in a mausoleum for the time being. All that we find, doesn’t matter who or what they are or were, are treated with utmost respect and deference.
Imagine what the British press, or at least the readers thereof, would say about Germany joining the BRI with Russia and China. Especially the likes of Breitbart. Dunno ’bout you, but I can only imagine a faction of the readers going hysterical about the “Krauts”, “Jerries” and/or “Huns” going berserk like in both world wars in accordance with the Anglo-American war narrative, or at least being insufficiently pro-Anglo.
Always remember, the AngloZIONIST Empire had its roots in what is now Ukraine and southern Russia, the old Khazar stomping ground. The antipathy the present-day Ashkenazim have for Russia goes way back to 965 when Sviatoslav I destroyed the Khazar city of Sarkel and its capital of Atil in the Caspian Expeditions of the Rus’. The Khazars eventually became the Ashkenazim, who migrated to the UK and the USA, and the rest is history.
Most migrated to the former multi state Germany because it was one of the few places in Europe not to have immigration quotas on people of jew religion. That’s why they’re named Ashkenazim.
This behaviour is part of the legacy of Churchill’s megalomania.
A comprehensive summary and the main reason why I keep returning to this website as it offers alternative views from excellent contributors. Well done!
Sadly the Destroyer accomplished its main mission to further demonize Russia and Mr. Putin as judged by the spin in the Western Press.
I wish Russia will one day step up and show true force as these incidents must never happen again, even with the risk of potentially starting a hot conflict.
The world is currently at war with cyber, economic and clandestine operations undertaken and the coup in the US has demonstrated that the US cannot be trusted especially with an incompetent, senile old man supposedly in charge.
May God have mercy on us all as the hot heads in the Deep State and NATO will surely attempt another provocation but will Russia and China for that matter in its areas of influence, step up and retaliate as the bullying and sanctions won’t stop!
UK is insane on the subject of Russia. Shortly after Crimea rejoined Russia, Jacob Rothschild proclaimed “Vladimir Putin has betrayed the New World Order”. I noticed all the UK media immediately started the most slanted anti-Russia reporting. The Integrity initiative that tried to slander Russia everywhere is from the UK. The Steele dossier, Skripal incident, etc. Polly Boiko who used to work for RT, . said that no one in polite society could say anything nice about Russia. The Brits have fallen for their own propaganda and are worse off than the other Western countries
LOL! Well you know them damn Russians. Always a bit rough around the edges. Always nice to have on your side in a shooting war, but definitely not the kind of people you’d invite for a formal dinner with respectable guests, or anything like that! Next thing you know the hooligans have drank too much and are out fornicating like the animals they are in the gardens, for Pete’s sake!
Sadly agreed. And I speak as a Brit. NATO is obviously gearing up for a war against Russia. But a war which they think is going to be met with a Russian surrender. They are obviously miscalculating. Russia cannot and will not stand for any more of this nonsense; I would expect that the next NATO stunt will be met with a rather different response. Let’s see how brave NATO is then.
Here is the supporting link https://youtu.be/u-bTeV6i55A “Putin traitor to NWO says Rothschild”.
The little guy has the key to starting a fight between the two big guys…and tried to do it, or maybe the little guy is very foolish…either way, ahemm.
Having a suzerain “partner” that has the ability and inclination to tease bear and eagle into nuclear “regrettable military accident” (Xi’x term)…permuting the development of such a leveraged asymmetry is perhaps akin to letting children play with explosive…
That Good Man Boris just made big big error…
That’s very sad. Seriously, nofixinstupid.
The ‘little’ guy left the European Union and wants to re-transform into the British Empire. They will try to expand their international power, with or without the US. I want to remind in this context of the Falkland wars in the 1980ies. Only that Moscow obiouvsly has a mulitple power than Buenos Aires. This would turn out bad for the British. And Turkey wouldn’t help the British, as they are NATO but abandoned the plans of Washington for their very own Ottoman empire style plans.
Next time make sure the “warning shots” hit !!
It will be much more difficult to deny that the event happened then !!
An excellent and well informed article. Thank you.
I’m still unclear as to possible motive. The folks in the discussion thread at Martyanov’s blog are of the view that a bigger conflict is on the way.
Maybe under cover of the Sea Breeze exercise beginning next week.
Even Antiwar is suggesting that we may be about to issue a “Sarajevo moment.”
Or an Agadir incident. Look it up!
The Agadir Crisis, Agadir Incident or Second Moroccan Crisis was a brief international crisis sparked by the deployment of a substantial force of French troops in the interior of Morocco in April 1911 and the deployment of a German gunboat to the Agadir, a Moroccan Atlantic port. Germany did not object to France’s expansion but wanted territorial compensation for itself. Berlin threatened warfare, sent a gunboat, and stirred up German nationalists.
Next time, and there will be a next time, the Russians should somehow incapacitate the ship by damaging its propellers. A steel mesh perhaps. Or a long steel beam on a small submarine that would poke the ship in the rear. I am no expert.
I would love to see a RN ship being towed by Russian tugs into the port of Sevastopol. The Russians could play innocent and let the limeys vent their spleen. :)
Nato is begging for a Russian fist in the face!! 🙏🙏🙏 hopefully it will come sooner than later!!
A bit like kids ringing a doorbell and running away.
In my personal opinion, it is 23:59, 27 July 1914.
In my personal opinion war is but a gnat’s eyelash away. In my personal opinion there will be ever more ‘provocations’ during the upcoming as of 28 June 2021 massive ‘nato training operation’, what ‘nato’ is actually doing is positioning it’s navy in force on the very doorstep of Russia. In my personal opinion, in all probability all Russian Forces have been ordered to stand to and assume an ‘impending war’ stance.
The ‘leaders’ of the collective ‘west’ are fornicating morons on a good day, and their last ‘good day’ was 30 years ago.
Auslander, my friend,
I just hope that Russia has all the video, audio and radars recording “the start” of the war. It will be imperative after they sink all the NATO ships and clear the skies of all the NATO platforms to convincingly demonstrate who started the combat.
The thing they should do now is go to the UN and register for the record that the imminent threat in the Black Sea requires them to defend before they are struck. That any “thrust” or “feint” or “sally” will trigger the complete destruction of everything in the battle zone.
Obviously, the lunatics in Brussels and DC are willing to take the losses to forever mark Russia as aggressor, to stop the natural gas from Russia, not only from NS-2 but from NS-1.
Their plan will diminish Russia and weaken China’s reliance on her. Then they will take apart China.
What they forget is any combat against Russia will cost them much more than the losses in the Black Sea.
Their Article 5 which they think will save them is ink on paper that will burn like the cannon fodder they are throwing into this cauldron.
With MiG-31s already armed with hypersonic missiles in the Syria-East Med zone, the Brussels freaks must know that their losses will be total in minutes.
I expect that in your town everything is at 100% alert.
Surely, the Brits will try some insane action onto your beaches.
We pray for you and your spouse and the collies and all the good people of Krim and Russia.
Auslander and Larchmonter445 – after taking a good look at Martyanov here
I am of course wondering who will be left to complain about Article 5.
I read a plethora of Russian analysts/bloggers. They all are of the mind that if the Brits “return fire” on Russians enforcing the 12-mile limit, then the dogs are loose and Marytanov’s ‘salvo’ scenario is on.
He has written endlessly that Russia will fire salvos (8’s, is the common lowest grouping), and from multiple platforms.
MLRS is 40 rocket salvos. Kalibrs usually fly (not always) in salvos on targets.
The various platforms the Russians have in the Black Sea could easily do 8,16, 24 missile salvos each.
And, you can imagine that if NATO starts something in Black Sea, the Poles will try to take Kaliningrad.
So, if you know anyone in Warsaw, tell them to move fast.
It looks, if such a scenario of NATO fishing for a war is true, like the West wants to pull down all global institutions of law and relations because they see that the future does not include them on top in the old order or their delusional NWO Globalist Feudalism.
You can imagine also that the Russian General Staff has calculated simultaneous combat in Kaliningrad-Baltics, Ukraine, Krim and Black Sea and Syria/East Med.
They will neutralize all decision centers of the West, military and civilian.
As the tension heats up watch Merkel and Macron, who both don’t want to be in NATO any longer.
The sense of real war that alters every stone in London (as Martyanov writes) will fracture US grasp on the vassals and the unity of NATO.
There is no strength in numbers. There are only more targets Russia can destroy in 20 minutes.
Europe is Mach 9-18 away from extinction as a unity of viable nations. And that isn’t even with nukes.
Amarynth, my dear lady,
Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics. We’ll see in a few days whiskey tango foxtrot, but nato in the Black Lake has no possibility of resupply or reinforcement. Romania and Bulgaria are within slingshot range of Mother. The Land of Turks knows very well which side of their bread the butter is on.
Ukraine will cease to exist in 48 or less because Mother will take the leash off NAF and they’ll be at the Dnepr rapidly. Odessa is a back water, no logistic facilities to speak of and besides, two kalibrs and the harbor is shut. They’ll have to shorten the kalibr range just to hit Odessa. Mariupol don’t matter, that’s on another Russian lake, the Azov.
That being said, all it will take is one itchy finger on a button and all heck will fly rapidly. Will we survive? Don’t know, but I now have few doubts that in the very near future we personally will see exactly how good modern BUK, S 300, S 400, S 500, S 600 and Pantsir are in addition to other nasty little things that don’t have names yet.
Worst thing is VCO just got unbusy for the first time today, 3 old and very sick dogs and one not quite 3 month old blue puppy named Kristeenah who is a nuclear ball of energy about wore her out today. She arrived in tears and asked if the current SitRep is true. I told her yes. In 15 years of marriage I’ve never heard her use any off colour language but apparently she’s listened to me once or twice and read my books. She let loose with a string of invective that would make a 40 years service First Shirt proud. Didn’t know she knew such language. Gawd help nato if she gets her hands on them.
City itself is quiet but tense.
Larchmonter, my long time comrade and very close friend,
I wrote you some minutes ago my real take on this situation (I will not post that here) so you know exactly how serious this mess is. It all depends now on what nato does with their ‘exercise’ which in reality is simply a blatant gathering of significant nato fleet units within spitting range of Russia. Perhaps nato has forgotten the old axiom, ‘if the enemy is within your range, you are within his’. We can only hope that the crapola does not hit the whirling blades because bottling themselves up in the Black Sea is a fool’s errand, let alone the significant resources Russia has now in the east Med area. If it does come to real shooting it will not least long and the only unknown is if and when the nukes start flying.
The brits trying something on our beaches, now that would be of interest, but the problem is I think they may be actually that dumbshit. Oh well, we’re still digging up our boys and ‘theirs’ 75 years after the fighting in theory died down and once in a while we still find brits from the 1854 war, usually on Inkerman Heights but sometimes in the Valley of the Shadow of Death which 165 years ago the brits were dumb enough to attack entrenched Russians after a death ride up a narrow valley with Russian arty on both sides and arty and cavalry at the south end. Yeah, the brits are that dumb, at least out London way.
Russia did well to show her teeth in this latest encounter with the Brits.
It actually may result in descalation: The Brits clearly got more than they bargained for, as they are minimising the seriousness of the incident and even pretending it didn’t happen!
Tunisia and S. Korea have apparently dropped out of “SeaBreeze 2021″…
On twitter the US have assured all, that exercises will take place only in international waters…
Maybe this latest incident is what the West needed as a wake up call…let us hope and pray that’s the case.
Serbian Girl, my lady,
‘On twitter the US have assured all, that exercises will take place only in international waters…’
Which puts nato ships 25 kilometers max off Krimu and Sevastopol shores from Evpatoria in the far northwest all the way around to Kerch on the southeast shore and over to Sochi and Novorossisk on the east shore of the lake, and you know the second target will be the bridge to the mainland. The first target will be Sevastopol Harbor even though the flagship Moskau is in the med with some others of the most modern and powerful.
Mother did show her teeth in no uncertain terms, but the fact remains that the ‘exercises’ are not cancelled or curtailed in any way publicly. In this berg, the silence is deafening, not a peep anywhere anyhow, even the civilians have shut up and gotten off the roads and streets.
Sea Breeze in international waters:
USN navigation skills are questionable, particularly at night, particularly in heavy traffic sea lanes, e. g. USS DVG Fitzgerald, USS DVG McCain, collisions at night with commercial traffic. Also, note complete destruction of new multi billon Norwegian frigate after collision at night with commercial traffic in seal lane.
Negative factors which affect this exercise with many various national naval vessels, different languages, different communication systems are serious; also now the new “woke” USN has many aspects of weakening the required navigation training with complex technology which is of questionable reliability and performance.
Finally, we have the Russians with their demonstrated sophisticated electronic warfare systems which could in a flash create havoc in navigation, in communication, and in command and control.
In short, odds are high that this exercise, under the watchful eye of the Russians, will not go off smoothly.
Sir Auslander I do wish that you would share your “real take on this situation,” as I greatly respect your insights and analysis.
I may not at this time give my detailed thoughts as to the gravity of the current situation.
Thanks. That’s quite, uh, “understandable”. At cafe I posted Ray McGovern in dialogue/symposium that may be perhaps remotely related.
Best & best of fortune amigo
You two are excellent sources of real-time information which I respect and appreciate. I live in So. CA and have 3 kids whom I love dearly. We’re all part of the good team and Andrei knows this as he has contributed to our musical endeavors (guy’s a brilliant guitar player). He will give either of you my email so if anything is coming my way that either of you are aware of, please communicate to me so I have a bit of time to move out of a clear target zone. Thank you both, I think I can speak for us all when I say you two are the most appreciated commenters on this blog. American’s are so dumbed-down at this point that they won’t/can’t stop this mess, sorry. Hope you both fare well whatever the scenario.
PS: Here’s the song he contributed to by way of the lead acoustic solo and other accompanying parts, it’s called
‘Refugee’, the main vocals were provided by the guitar player (Brian Bordeaux) who toured internationally
with the Jimi Hendrix Experience – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-PB20ZAEp4
Via Hal Turner – an article in the British tabloid rag, The Sun. Torture chambers in Russian Crimea! Is this part of a justification for war in the near future?
Removed. Please stop putting links to the same information – you are just giving the sun views and the article is irrelevant to the serious matter discussed by the author in this post. Please take to the MFC. Any further will go to trash. Mod.
Another link to the same show.
Take a moment to explore the other headlines and articles, it’s a lovely walk thru the twisted world of Brittania.
My old Gramma repeatedly warned me back in the 60s and 70s, “never trust an English, dear, never trust an English.”
I hear you Gramma.
It is indisputable that the Russians have “effective control” of Crimea. If the UK refuses to recognize Russian sovereignty over the Crimea then it must view this to be a territory that has been seized by Russia and placed under a belligerent occupation.
“Belligerent occupations” are governed by international humanitarian law a.k.a. the Laws of War. They definitely aren’t governed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and no foreign warship has a right of innocent passage through the waters of an occupied territory.
Sending a foreign warship within 12 nm of the Crimea coast is a hostile act.
It can’t be anything other than a hostile act, because Britain makes no bones that it is contesting the “authority” of an occupying power to the territory that is under that occupation.
Even under the UK’s own logic that is an act of war, and the Russian Coast Guard showed great restraint by merely firing warning shots at the destroyer.
I haven’t looked all the replies, but I wonder if this wasn’t mainly an intelligence gather mission by the Brits.
Otherwise it seems to a rather pointltless exercise.
is question for naval strategy people, what to call the UK run into Crimea. I have heard such incursions being called “combat reconnaissance”, and I’m pretty sure that what the US Army circa 1964 called it.
Is the sort of tactic both sides used in Korea, until the North got tired of screwing around with the fascist provocations… (that’s a hint)
Is what you do to probe and test and learn about the place and people and forces you intend to defeat.
Is big opportunity to spoof intruder, deceive him.
Is dropdead indication of proximate design and intent. (thus do it immediately prior to attack, or to spoof target …Sun Tsu stuff.
It looks like Mercouris’ view that there will be no war is getting pretty shaky.
As to UK naval lingo, no clue…
The phrase I come up with is “stoopii iriot “from Benny Hill…… article in UK press with details of Russian latest ginormous sub on its first trip today…..yup its 80 ft long torpedoes with 2 nuclear bomb heads can create giant tsunamis…nice pics. Aircraft carriers have no defence to them.
The giant boat going to sea seemed to me to be preceded with return to covered berth or dock, where, it’s rational to assume that the ballast in the weapons, the dummy weapons themselves used in trials, that these useless test and training devices would be removed and replaced with the good stuff, war supplies loaded, and off to the depths of the vast Pacific.. But it seemed to me quite rushed…
Ivan not screwing around anymore.
(that’s a phase change and indicates that a guest is about to be ejected for bad behavior)
Sinking the imperial fleet is optional.
Laying siege to the archipelago is also an option, I expect.
San Diego is not out of range.
Mercouris did speculate that the “new” western boundary of imperial reign might be the continent itself, the beach, or perhaps nearer Hawaii. However, if that happens, Hawaii will become again a constitutional monarchy or a democratic sovereign State, something he did not mention.
Thus, is logical, Rus/Chin make new Pacific line of demarcation … wait 10 years … Hawaii votes referendum…
SB21 is the trigger tho.
If, as Meyssan says, they made deal at Geneva, deal broke at D+5, or at least when the sleepyguy’s airplane left the ground.
Now deal gets enforced.
I expect a very bad outcome. Like watching a flooded river. And like floodwaters generally, best to stay out of the water.
It is all a terrible mistake.
The Brits were on their way to Georgia and got caught between between Seylla and the Charydis and lost their way. Their navigation skills aren’t what they used to be.
As far as the crew was concerned: “Theirs not to reason why theirs but to”…obey the orders of madmen.
History is very confusing.
Wow breaking news…..secret documents from UK Ministry of Defence regarding HMS Defender and military have been found at a bustop in Kent…..curioser and curioser. Hope there are details later. Interesting huh ?
Classified Ministry of Defence documents containing details about HMS Defender and the British military have been found at a bus stop in Kent. One set of documents discusses the likely Russian reaction to the ship’s passage through Ukrainian waters off the Crimea coast on Wednesday. Another details plans for a possible UK military presence in Afghanistan after the US-led Nato operation there ends. The government said an investigation had been launched. A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said an employee had reported the loss of sensitive defence papers, adding: “It would be inappropriate to comment further.” Russian jets and ships shadow British warship What will be the fallout from Black Sea incident? UK confirms ‘drawdown’ of Afghan troops The documents, almost 50 pages in all, were found in a soggy heap behind a bus stop in Kent early on Tuesday morning. A member of the public, who wishes to remain anonymous, contacted the BBC when he realised the sensitive nature of the contents. The BBC believes the documents, which include emails and PowerPoint presentations, originated in the office of a senior official at the Ministry of Defence (MoD). The documents relating to the Royal Navy’s Type 45 destroyer, HMS Defender, show that a mission described by the MoD as an “innocent passage through Ukrainian territorial waters”, with guns covered and the ship’s helicopter stowed in its hangar, was conducted in the expectation that Russia might respond aggressively. On Wednesday more than 20 Russian aircraft and two coastguard ships shadowed the warship as it sailed about 12 miles (19km) off Crimea’s coast. Moscow’s defence ministry said a patrol ship fired warning shots and a jet dropped bombs in the destroyer’s path but the UK government rejected this account, denying any warning shots had been fired. The mission, dubbed “Op Ditroite”, was the subject of high-level discussions as late as Monday, the documents show, with officials speculating about Russia’s reaction if HMS Defender sailed close to Crimea. ” “What do we understand about the possible ‘welcome party’…?” asked an official at Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ), the UK’s tri-service headquarters at Northwood. Recent interactions in the eastern Mediterranean between Russian forces and a Carrier Strike Group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth had been unremarkable and “in line with expectations”, the document said. But officials knew this was about to change. “Following the transition from defence engagement activity to operational activity, it is highly likely that RFN (Russian navy) and VKS (Russian air force) interactions will become more frequent and assertive,” one presentation warned. series of slides prepared at PJHQ shows two routeing options, one described as “a safe and professional direct transit from Odessa to Batumi”, including a short stretch through a “Traffic Separation Scheme” (TSS) close to the south-west tip of Crimea. This route, one slide concluded, would “provide an opportunity to engage with the Ukrainian government… in what the UK recognises as Ukrainian territorial waters.” Three potential Russian responses were outlined, from “safe and professional” to “neither safe nor professional”. In the event, Russia chose to react aggressively, with radio warnings, coastguard vessels closing to within 100 metres and repeated buzzing by warplanes. An alternative route was considered, which would have kept HMS Defender well away from contested waters. This would have avoided confrontation, the presentation noted, but ran the risk of being portrayed by Russia as evidence of “the UK being scared/running away”, allowing Russia to claim that the UK had belatedly accepted Moscow’s claim to Crimean territorial waters.As the public would expect, the Ministry of Defence plans carefully,” an MoD spokesperson said. “As a matter of routine, that includes analysing all the potential factors affecting operational decisions.” Alongside the military planning, officials anticipated competing versions of events. “We have a strong, legitimate narrative”, they said, noting that the presence of the embedded journalists (from the BBC and Daily Mail) on board the destroyer “provides an option for independent verification of HMS Defender’s action”. Following the controversy generated by HMS Defender’s mission, the documents discovered in Kent confirm that passage through the TSS was a calculated decision by the British government to make a show of support for Ukraine, despite the possible risks involved. Was this gunboat diplomacy? It was certainly the use of a warship in pursuit of diplomatic goals. But its primary objective was not to “poke the Russian bear” (a phrase and sentiment conspicuously absent from the documents). This was all about freedom of navigation and a clear endorsement of Ukraine’s sovereignty, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
The documents don’t stop there. The bundle includes updates on arms exports campaigns, including sensitive observations about areas where Britain might find itself competing with European allies. There’s a whiff of post-Brexit anxiety in comments attributed to “SofS” (Defence Secretary Ben Wallace), who insists that the six-member European Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR), of which Britain is a member, “must not be hijacked” by “entryism” from the European Commission. And there are briefing notes for last Monday’s session of the UK-US Defence Dialogue, including observations on President Joe Biden’s first months in office. The Biden administration’s early focus on China and the Indo-Pacific, they say, show “there is still much continuity from the previous administration.” There are also suggestions of what Britain should be asking for. “We should use the meeting to see how much the administration is prepared to share, or whether its stated ambition of consulting more with allies is truer in principle than in practice.” Sensitive military recommendations Most of the papers are marked “official sensitive”, a relatively low level of classification used, according to the government, “where there is a clear and justifiable requirement to reinforce the ‘need to know'”. But one document, addressed to Ben Wallace’s private secretary, and marked “Secret UK Eyes Only”, outlines highly sensitive recommendations for the UK’s military footprint in Afghanistan, following the end of Operation Resolute Support, the Nato operation currently winding down in the wake of President Biden’s decision earlier this year to withdraw American forces. The document discusses an American request for British assistance in several specific areas, and addresses the question of whether any British special forces will remain in Afghanistan once the withdrawal is complete. Media reports have already suggested Britain is considering leaving some forces behind. Due to the sensitivity of the document, the BBC has decided not to
report details which could endanger the security of British and other personnel in Afghanistan. But amid reports of a worsening security situation in the country, it sounds several warnings. “Any UK footprint in Afghanistan that persists… is assessed to be vulnerable to targeting by a complex network of actors,” it says, noting that “the option to withdraw completely remains.” Afghanistan, it says, is already becoming more dangerous. The reduced presence of Nato forces “is already impairing the situational awareness that we (and the US) used to enjoy across the country”. No Britons have been killed in Afghanistan since the US-Taliban deal in February 2020, it says, but “this would be unlikely to remain the status quo”. Rarely has a collection of lost documents covered such a wide range of important areas. This is a major embarrassment for the Ministry of Defence, which is currently carrying out a detailed investigation into how the papers came to be lying on a street corner, in the rain, in the early hours of Tuesday morning.”
I guess passports were found near the bus stop too. Showing the names of the terrorists who lost the classified British Government documents. Just a guess.
Here’s an excellent P*** take of hms provoker from Bill Purkayastha:
“Hitler” learns that Russia fired warning shots at HMS Defender
Does anybody know from what film that extract comes from? Thanks.
That was the endlessly abused scene from Der Untergang …
Thanks Amerikanski. I’ve seen that clip before (with other sub-titles) but did not know what film it was from.
He goes by Bill now? LOL
Putting all available information about the HMS Defender’s (HMSD) incident aside, except video clips, issues by Russian sources, what one can notice?
#) A long white ship footprint of HMSD, witnessing about 30 knots speed.
#) Signal flags on HMSD might be read as RH_ _ (whatever it means) (expert help needed)
#) Two officers on the HMSD bridge behave as worried bird-watchers
#) On the bridge of Russian ship 2 (RS2) calm atmosphere (officers are simply doing their job)
#) One can hear an excellent British (Cambridge) accent from an officer placing a warning to HMSD over radio.
#) Officers on RS2 are patient but persistent
#) The sighting line of RS2 cannon at firing warning shots is more than 5 degrees out of line of sight to HMSD (which is quite faraway)
. . . and so on.
Some remarks and questions arise.
Speed of 30 knots does not seem quite as a cruising speed (or speed of innocence)
Does each ship in Russian Navy (and Russian Coast Guard) have an officer speaking English with Cambridge accent?
The crew on RS2 behaves as taking part in an exercise (no panic at all, not even hurry)
What if the HMSD was expected to be innocent?
This is such kind of milestone event which badly needs the admiral coverage, at least, not to speak of minister Shoygu for political implications.
When I mention Mr. Shoygu, what about his warning (at the IX Moscow Conference on International Security) about warming along Russian borders (west), given several hours prior the HMSD intruding?
(Well, the Conference schedule was set up months ago, and it would be ridiculous to seek for any planed coincidence. But Brits also have known about this schedule.)
. . . . .
In the middle of writing this comment two pieces of news have struck my computer:
1. Top secret documents about HMSD “innocence” found at a bus stop in London (are you kidding me?).
2. Russian fleet began large–scale exercise some 300 miles from Pearl Harbour (5,000 miles (or 10 days sailing at 20 knots) from Vladivostok). ‘Sea Breeze 21’ has yet to come (28 June — 10 July).
When events are faster than comments we surely live in interesting times. Dangerous too.
Craig Murray, the former brit ambassador to Uzbekistan, from 1989-92 was Head of Maritime Section, FCO, and was responsible for negotiations on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
He says bojo ‘does not normally look at the precise positions of British ships. This was a deliberate act of dangerous belligerence’. https://www.craigmurray.org.uk
The LYING brit mod should be renamed as moo: ministry of Offense – just like the us dod (pentagram) should be renamed DOOM: dept of Offensive military (or subs whatever word you think is more appropriate for the latter) – claiming ‘innocent [sic] passage’. Those british satanic shits could have caused WW3 as they indisputably are guilty of ‘british aggression’, and Putin/Russia showed remarkable restraint and wisdom to that dumbfuck fool bojo.
Predictably the British are sending HMS Trent into the Black Sea, ostensibly for Sea Breeze 21, but who knows what BoJo is going to cook up for jingoism and rules based international order shenanigans….
Sure enough, one document published out of the “bus stop” ‘find’ is a planning chart of proposed routes for HMS Defender, the one taken and another one much much farther out in the Black Sea.
Someone in the civil service doesn’t like what BoJo did.
Brits and anglosaxons just love war. Was British intrigue that started WW2. Looks like they are spoiling for another w.war.
Euro dopes and allies dont realize that US and UK are somewhat protected by sea and are not so badly devastated by war as they are in the heart of Europe
Some points I would like to make:
1) UNCOLS Articles 17-20 define whether a ship has the right to claim innocent passage. So they talk about the ship, not the coastal state
2) UNCOLS Articles 21-24 define what restrictions a coastal state can (and can not) impose upon that ship as it goes about its innocent passage i.e. those articles talk about the coastal state.
All well and good. But what about the right of innocent passage itself? Can a coastal state suspend that right entirely?
3) UNCOLS Article 25 says “Yes”. But with these caveats: the reason must be “essential” to the “security” of the coastal state, the areas of the suspension must be defined, the suspension must be “temporary”, and all of the above must be notified to mariners.
Note that UNCOLS did *not* define what an “essential” “security” need is. It gave an example, sure, but did not give a definition (compare that with Articles 17-20). It would appear that it is up to the coastal state to make that call which, obviously, makes sense.
Russia did all those things in a Notice to Mariners on August 15 2021, suspending the right of innocent passage until October 2021 for reasons of security in the very area that Defender sailed through.
That Defender then barged into that area despite that Notice to Mariners which, in itself, should trigger
3) Article 30, which gives a coastal state the authority to insist that a warship that is refusing to comply with the Laws and Regulations of the coastal state can be ordered to leave the coastal water
The Russians did that. Defender ignored them.
4) That refusal triggers Article 32, which says that in those circumstances the warship has lost its immunity i.e. the Russians can shoot at it.
Now, all of the above matters is Russia is the “coastal state”. Russia, of course, insists that it is. Ukraine and the UK insist that it is not.
To my mind that doesn’t really matter, since both Ukraine and the UK insist that Russia is an occupying power. Which must lead to the conclusion that Russia possesses the “authority” of a coastal state since, axiomatically, that “authority” is what defines this as an occupation.
Or, put another way, Boris Johnson can’t insist that Defender’s path is quite OK because the Ukraine told him it was OK, precisely because if Ukraine has that “authority” then Russia can’t be an occupying power. Yet Ukraine insists that Russia is occupying Crimea. Catch 22.
But if we take the Ukrainian/UK argument that Russia is merely an occupier then Defender’s behavior becomes even more outrageous, because it amounts to a foreign warship barging its way unannounced and unwanted into waters that are under an authority conferred to Russia by International Humanitarian Law aka The Laws Of War.
In effect, Defender is challenging the authority of an occupying power, which the occupier is entitled to regard as An Act Of War.
Either way you look at it, Boris Johnson’s decision was foolhardy to the point of being dangerous, and he should thank his lucky stars that the Russians have as much patience as they have shown.