by Observer R for the Saker Blog
Foreign Affairs published an article by Daniel Drezner, Ronald Krebs, and Randall Schweller (“The End of Grand Strategy,” (May/June 2020) that brought forth a rejoinder in opposition by Francis J. Gavin and James B. Steinberg (“Foreign Policy Needs a Road Map,” (July/August 2020) and a reply by Drezner, Krebs, and Schweller in the same issue. After reading both sides of the controversy, one could make a case that the authors of the articles on both sides of the grand strategy debate are correct — or at least partially correct. The first article is on firm ground when pointing out that a grand strategy is probably impossible for the US to arrive at due to the change in the world situation and the fractious nature of American politics. However, the second article is also correct, that leaving strategy up to field officials would hardly ensure any coordinated actions at all and they could end up working at cross purposes.
It might be helpful to step back and leave grand strategy for a moment and talk about “semi-grand” strategy instead. For example, the US has a de facto strategy of containment in dealing with Russia—basically a re-invention of the Cold War against the Soviet Union. This has been going on in some fashion ever since the end of the Soviet Union. Currently it involves Belarus, Ukraine, NATO expansion, Nordstream 2, Georgia, sanctions, and Syria, among other skirmishes. One might say that the Cold War never ended, based on the refusal by the US to dissolve NATO at the same time that the Warsaw Pact came to an end. This is “semi-grand” because the US is now ginning up a de facto containment strategy against China. This one involves the Pivot to Asia, support for Taiwan, the “umbrella” effort in Hong Kong, opposition to the New Silk roads, contesting the South China Sea, sanctions, and the Indo-Pacific effort, which all amount to at least a “semi-grand” also. The reason they are both “semi-grand” is that a grand strategy would have planned how to keep Russia and China from joining forces in response to the dual containment policies of the US. The fractious politics in the US, where one party was more hawkish on Russia (witness RussiaGate) and the other party was more hawkish on China (witness the Trade War), meant that no real discussion or analysis was completed before decisions were made which resulted in trying dual containment of two major powers at the same time. The US is belatedly trying to round up partners to stop China, but having very little success. Even Australia, one of the supposed Quad members of the Indo-Pacific push, just stated its lack of enthusiasm to sign up with the US plan. Looking back almost ten years, there was an interesting attempt to craft a positive and peaceful strategy for relations between the US and China, but it did not get very far (“China US Grand Strategy Proposal,” Thomas P.M. Barnett, John Milligan-Whyte & Dai Min, Foreign Affairs, 2011).
So the two semi-grand strategies have resulted in China and Russia joining forces to oppose the US actions. A grand strategy would have gone for a divide-and-conquer effort or at least taken them on one at a time. As it is, the two countries are working to overcome containment and have a combined advantage in real estate, population, energy, factories, weapons, economy and 5G. An alternative grand strategy would be to harmonize the semi-grands into a plausible overarching concept that might work. So far, the most effort along this line has been in articles hoping to show that both China and Russia have inherent internal defects that will eventually result in their demise. Skeptics could point out that the US also has a slew of internal defects, and that it is a race to see who reaches bottom first. However, a recent statement by some retired US officials indicates a belief that ostracizing Russia was maybe not the best foreign policy maneuver and that a re-thinking is in process (“It’s Time to Rethink Our Russia Policy,” Rose Gottemoeller, et al – signed by 103 former officials, Politico, August 5, 2020). On the other hand, this statement elicited a vigorous rejoinder which opposed any re-thinking (“No, Now Is Not the Time for Another Russia Reset,” David J. Kramer–signed by 33 former officials, Politico, August 11, 2020). These articles illustrate a wide gap in foreign policy thinking within the US expert community.
The pursuit of the Monroe Doctrine could be considered a very early grand strategy, but its recent re-emphasis has had both success and failure. Other previous grand strategies could be considered to be the Opening to China (Nixon & Kissinger) and the Grand Chessboard (Brzezinski). However, the US strategy toward China since the Pivot to Asia has negated the Opening, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Iran nuclear agreement will negate the Chessboard. Other strategies included “Blood Borders: How a better Middle East would look” (Ralph Peters, Armed Forces Journal, 2006), which proposed a plan to redraw the borders throughout the region to better align with the ethnic and religious distribution; “Imagining a Remapped Middle East” (Robin Wright, New York Times, 2013), which showed how 5 countries could be divided to become 14 countries; “Why the Pentagon Changes Its Maps” (Thomas P.M. Barnett, Esquire, September 10, 2016/originally published March 2003); and the Arab Spring (Obama administration). All these proposals and actions involved vast disruptions, regime changes, and attempts to refashion boundaries in North Africa and the Middle East. There has been little official change in borders so far, however, several countries have divided war zones and attempts at separation. These other strategies could be considered semi-grand and have shown the difficulties in implementing even a limited form of overall strategy. It is obvious that the US has little benefit to show for all the blood and treasure spent in the Middle East and Africa, unless the creation of “failed states” qualifies as a plus.
Additional semi-grand strategies can be observed in other parts of the world. The US has somewhere around 800 military bases spread about on all the continents. This is a very expensive proposition and has several different rationales to support it: being the world policeman, preventing nuclear proliferation, solving the problems of the Middle East, stopping terrorism, bringing democracy and human rights to distant lands, increasing weapons spending, creating chaos, and so forth. Another actual semi-grand strategy might be the promotion of regime change by color revolution, legal or military coups, electioneering tactics, and proxy fighters. Pretty much the same rationales apply here as for the military web of bases, as they can be used together in difficult cases. Viewed from a higher theoretical level, however, they are part of the broad range of implements in the hegemony toolbox.
From this higher angle then, the extensive military bases and the regime change semi-grands can be added together to form one sort of a grand strategy called the “pursuit of hegemony.” There have certainly been enough articles in Foreign Affairs over the years to indicate the importance of hegemony for US foreign policy. In fact, the magazine published an issue (January/February 2019) with “Who Will Run the World” on the cover and four articles inside on the featured theme. One article argued that the liberal international order could possibly be saved, while the other articles were dubious and generally claimed that the order could not be restarted or revived. This pessimistic outlook was followed by another set of articles in Foreign Affairs (March/April 2020) with “Come Home, America?” on the cover and six articles inside on the featured theme. Once again, the first article was in favor of continuing current world-wide policies, while the next two articles were arguments for retrenchment. The last three articles were dubious about much success from continuing current policies. Careful reading of the first article, however, shows that it begins to waffle toward the end and is only half-hearted in support of continuing the current global role due to the many factors working against it. On a scorecard, the result of these debates in Foreign Affairs would be a lopsided defeat for the hegemonic pursuit grand strategy side.
There is possibly a significant faction within the Council on Foreign Relations that is skeptical about the future prospects for the US “running the world.” Otherwise, the Foreign Affairs articles would likely not have been published. Likewise, many of the articles were written by academics and similarly show a difference of opinion among the professors. However, little of this newly published skepticism has made its way into general public discourse. The few politicians expressing a skeptical view have been marginalized or excluded in the debates and subjected to very adverse publicity in the mass media. One reason for this could be the relative lack of published grand strategies for US foreign policy in a post-hegemonic world. The “retrenchment” proposals are essentially semi-grand in that they are mostly negative in tone and do not give a compelling description of life after the imperial sunset. It is common for textbooks to note that when the British Empire went into decline, the baton was passed to the Americans, albeit with continual British influence and participation. It is also a common comment that the Americans have no one to pass the baton to.
So, are the skeptics right or wrong? The US current foreign and military policy is certainly going forward on all fronts in an attempt to continue running the world and to prevent any obstruction to its exceptional and unipolar situation. Attempts at retrenchment are furiously beaten down, and there seem to be little slackening of regime change efforts. This makes sense if the US role is sustainable at its current level and the skeptics are generally wrong. On the other hand, perhaps the current effort is a last ditch “Hail Mary” pass before the clock runs out. In any event, just in case the skeptics are right, it might well be useful to draw up some comprehensive scenarios for life in a post-hegemonic world, as well as how to decline gracefully and make the best of the new situation.
In summary, the grand strategies of the past have either been discarded (Opening to China) or are in serious trouble with a doubtful future (Grand Chessboard). More recent strategic attempts to deal with Russia did not get anywhere (Reset) and those dealing with China failed to get much traction either (Pivot, TPP). It is certainly questionable whether the War on Terror achieved any significant reduction in terrorism around the world. The semi-grand strategies appear to have resulted in the US getting bogged down in various quagmires. The current grand strategy of the US government appears to be an effort to use any means possible to keep “running the world.” If articles published in Foreign Affairs are any indication, however, it would seem that the scholarly community and many former officials possess a very pessimistic view of the US pursuing hegemony. By extension, this pessimism could also apply to some members of the Council on Foreign Relations. To date, however, the experts appear to be hard pressed to create a positive-sounding and marketable alternative. As a result, politicians, mainstream media, and the public are seemingly unaware of the potential for a major crisis. A hard landing for the Yankee Empire is not a welcome prospect.
the only thing left to play is to go & defend, by force, Oncle Shamuel´s fortune, the US counterfeit fiat paper.
Which ironically takes, more counterfeit fiat paper. Something is not adding up here and i’m not certain what it is, or isnt.
Now that they think that Russia is “held in check” with NAT0’s largest concentration of military force on Russia’s border since the Nazis, they are already executing their grand strategy by locking down the economy with the COVID response and the fake BLM movement. These triggers are even bigger than 9ll which brought about the forever wars and the nullification of the Constitution. The 2020 trigger will have even bigger consequences, such as, causing an Indo-Pak war with some missiles flying over the border or some other deception. The radiation from such a war will incapacitate China and destroy its BRI ambitions. Whoever controls Asia, controls the world, and the neocons will never let that stand.
I would disagree – again, you are taking the stand held by so many, still held in thrall to the image of a mighty behemoth, the Eater of Nations, holding all the cards.
You say “the neocons will never let that stand” [i.e. China and it’s BRI].
I would suggest the neocons can want, pray, plan and shriek all they want. What they want is no longer of any consequence. If China, along with a few other nations equally sick of the US bully, want a BRI, then they will construct one. End of story.
“still held in thrall…”
Kapricorn4 on August 29, 2020 · at 9:28 am EST/EDT
In Belarus the protestors are in thrall to those who wish to privatize state assets, and reduce the population to poverty and debt servitude to the IMF, just as was done to Ukraine and Libya
OlyaPola on August 30, 2020 · at 1:46 pm EST/EDT
” in thrall”
Generally the greatest weakness is certainty, closely followed by belief : in interaction they each and in aggregate increase potency and spread.
Resort to bridging doubt by belief to attain confirmation bias/comfort is not yet out of fashion.
Dances/trances around fixed points often need a melody to generate “enthusiasm”.
“image of a mighty behemoth…”
The belief of mighty behemothness was a significant factor in facilitating the transcendence of “the Soviet Union” by the Russian Federation.
In the early 1970’s this belief facilitated the “restructuring” of the United States of America through the complicity of others in facilitating the “US dollar” becoming more of a fiat currency from a previous state of lesser fiat through currency(exchange rate) overvaluation.
It also facilitated detente and the delay/frustration of an earlier version of BRI – the project developed between the Academy of Sciences of “The Soviet Union” and the Japanese ziabatsu represented by Mitsui and Mitsubishi to develop the Trans Siberian Railroad including an industrial zone and link at Nahodka (due in part to different railway guages between the two systems) through Hokkaido and then Honshu, funded by Japanese dollar reserves.
The Politburo of “The Soviet Union” cancelled further work on this project and re-directed efforts to the Baikal-Amur projects citing the strategic threat posed by the PRC, and much of the Japanese dollar reserves were “invested” in the “United States of America”, in creating asset/property bubbles in Japan, and mutating Japan’s previous industrial focus into a more financialisation focus – a process which in part was later emulated in the “United States of America” through investments in China.
In 1993 the project was reviewed by the Academy of Sciences of the CIS/Russian Federation and the Mitsubishi Foundation.
From at least 1970 some in “The Soviet Union” had realised that “The Soviet Union” was neither reformable nor sustainable, and consequently this would offer opportunities of opponents both externally and internally opportunities to make mischief, since although appearing “counter-intuitive” to many, a type of symbiotic relationship between “The United States of America” and “The Soviet Union” was necessary for the continued existence of both.
One of the vectors in frustrating mischief was the reinforcement of opponents’ belief in their own behemothness/hegemony, including by way of not challenging the “constitution” under Mr. Yelsin after The White House across from the Hotel Ukraina had been attacked, and the Mr. Yeltsin/Mr. Zhirinovsky routines.
Before winning his “Presidency” Mr. Clinton and some of his advisors were suspicious of developments in Russia and so an “American” project of research was initiated in late autumn 1994 affording an opportunity to those with benefit of experience of “The Soviet Union” including GOSPLAN to encourage the continuing belief of the opponents in their own behemothness/hegemony.
Partly as an insurance option “The United States of America” with the aid of some “oligarchs”, including but not limited to Mr. Berezhovsky, facilitated the subsequent election of Mr. Yeltsin.
“Larchmonter445 on August 31, 2020 · at 3:44 pm EST/EDT
…. the desperation of a hegemon …”
The notion of behemothness/hegemon still has some utility in minimising and maximising blowback simultaneously in furtherance of the question posed by some in the 1970’s:
“How to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback ?”
given that Mr. Euclid was wrong that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line, given speed is a function of distance and time.
“End of story.”
Unlikely, but not end of process.
“Semi-Grand Strategies “
“How to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback ?”
“Intensified American Diplomatic Activities in the Middle-East”
“Poland and Lithuania Are Ready to ‘Take Back’ Belorussian Lands (Anna Sochina)”
Provocation requires at least one who provokes, and at least one who is provoked.
Alliance, including formal alliance, requires motivation to be allied by at least two parties.
All interactions require at least two participants.
The drowning of drowing men is accelerated when bound to dead weight.
The drowning of drowning men is accelerated when at least two are bound together.
The drowning of drowing men is accelerated when more than two are bound together, since they tend to flail out at one another.
and in some dictionaries “strategies” are found under the letter H – “hopes”.
“….in some dictionaries “strategies” are found under the letter H – “hopes”
To be thought stupid has many advantages.
Huawei is moving its US investments to Russia. This was a headline today on Sputniknews.
The unintended consequences for the war against Huawei and China’s 5G head start around the world is now crystal clear. Huawei’s prowess will team up with Russian technology and science (read mathematical dominance).
Billions of dollars in R&D per year will now go into Russian-Chinese technology invention and innovation.
For Huawei, it is existential necessity. For Russia, it is exactly the turbo charge its economy needs. It will stop the brain drain and help return some of the best who left. It will solidify careers for the best young minds coming our of schools, colleges and universities. It will give Russia a plethora of high tech patents and other intellectual property.
The US has strengthened Russia and China by waging this war against China’s technology sector.
The bitter fruits (for the US) will be apparent very soon. It will be the main meal the US will be eating as long as the new Cold War continues. Highly likely, for a generation or more.
I think that analysts will look back at this moment in time, Huawei committing heavily to Russia, much more than they had already, as the event when the US permanently fell behind China and Russia in technology.
When I first thought of, researched and wrote the Double Helix white paper, I imagined the cohesion of the raw talent and brains of the Russians would entwine with the diligence and energy of the Chinese, particularly in technology.
It is upon us. Made possible by Sinophobia and Russophobia and the desperation of a hegemon that is incapable of competing in the marketplace or geopolitically around the globe.
Precisely Larchmonter!…and this is what Jon Hellevig recently wrote about Russia’s economic Hat Trick…
“In a global recession, no country is safe, but Russia looks to have quite a lot going for it in terms of economic advantages. Russia’s national balance sheet is next to none with by far the lowest debt of all major countries. All economic actors, the government, corporations and households are economically solid and minimally leveraged.
Not only is the government virtually debtless, but it has again replenished its spectacular forex and sovereign wealth fund reserves. On top of that comes a hefty budget surplus. – Yes, you heard that right, surplus. In a time when all Western countries are in a chronic fight against deficits, you rarely even hear the term budget surplus.
And more, Russia runs the world’s third biggest trade surplus. Add to that the current account surplus, and there’s the hat trick in form of your classic triple surpluses.”
The difference in balance sheets between Russia and its major western rivals could hardly be more stark.
Talk about “Grand Strategies” and a re-invigoration of the cold war…what is looming will be very cold indeed… especially for the Hegemon.
absolutely true, spot on.
My view of the decline of the US and the rise of China and Russia is based on the education systems.
It seems that in the US one out of 4 youths (18-24) considered suicide in the last month released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention earlier this month, based on an extensive mental health survey of Americans in late June. Also significantly more than half (62.9 percent) reported suffering from depressive or anxiety disorders.
Social sciences and studies like women’s studies, earth science, biology, civics etc and humanities and away from core maths, physics, chemistry and english literature. The goal of a liberal arts education is to draw from different disciplines none of the core included. The goal of intersectionality is to connect the experiences of diverse communities.
Many colleges are top heavy on social studies over math and science. This leads to a generation whose skill set is least valued by industry yet most quallified for the tiny sector of social workers. So no jobs, large debts and skills not valued lead to depression.
A foretaste of such maliase was Evergreen College some years ago where genuine science courses were degraded as racial etc.
311,000 engineering. 350,000 liberal arts, humanities and business studies are the latest stats from the US.
I bet the Chinese students study in the UK, US Australia etc are not enroling in the liberal arts/humanities courses. They are all in science, maths and engineering.
I recently made a short satirical video on Australia’s relationship with China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6RENQri4LI
I will be doing one next on the educational consequences mentioned above as soon as I can discover some historical parallel.
“Bon mots”: “It seems that one out of four teenagers in the US considered suicide last month” — why not more? When i lived in the US at age 15-16 that was the only year of my life I never conáidereed scuicide (Colombia Missouri, Berkley California, Ann Arnour Michigan and Hibbing/Chisholm Minnesota.) Were I to revisit those places now and forced to stay on there, I should certainly consider “taking the easy way out”.
The problem in Russia’s education system is that it is not driven by nationalistic policies. There are many teachers in schools, who are liberals and they teach those liberalist crap to Russian students.
I think that’s one of the reasons why the younger generation in Russia is becoming more and more distanced from Russia’s national ambitions in terms of society and politics.
Have say I am very puzzled with the comment in the last paragraph…
“It is certainly questionable whether the War on Terror achieved any significant reduction in terrorism around the world.”
It was never a “War on Terror” it was precisely the opposite…it was a war to create more terror…indeed ongoing, everlasting, perpetual terror!
You beat me to it Col. Whenever I refer to it I call it – unironically, I might add – the Global War Of Terror. Coming as it did in the wake of the 9-11 false flag event, that was its true intention right from the start.
There is no discussion of the American alliance system, which encircles the Russo-Chinese alliance. America’s allies are all modern democratic/industrial countries with modern militaries. Russo-China have no other allies. While Russo-China cannot be invaded, and are immune to nuclear blackmail, they are encircled and contained. If India ever becomes a part of the American alliance system, the Russo-Chinese position is hopeless.
Generally the greatest weakness is certainty, closely followed by belief : in interaction they each and in aggregate increase potency and spread.
Americas allies are not democratic, trust me. And their militaries are jokes! Two years back, NATO ships collided in Norway. It should not have happened! America cannot build proper aircraft carrier. Take a look at USS Gerald Ford. In spite of spending 14 billion follars, there are so many design flaws! And let us not forget? There no American Allies! Only vassals, and there are signs that not everyone is too enthusiastic about direction America is going.
How do you feel that they are contained they still do business with the rest of the world, and with the BRI it will increase a hundred fold,and to top it off just how many of those countries and their people would rush to war with either Russia or China and just how many of those countries military is capable of waging those wars,neither Germany nor France would back any war for their populations wouldn’t permit it.I think perhaps they better re-think the idea that by running around Russia’s border that it will in some strange way it force them to heel at the masters feet,it won’t,!!!!
Remarkably negative reports which I have perused over the weekend: just a sample of disastrous rot on this dying rotting carcass:
by Finian Cunningham
What the US needs is a genuine political third party, one that transcends the status quo of “two-party stitch-up” for the oligarchy.
One that offers Americans an accurate political analysis for why their country is imploding from inequality, police brutality, debt and endless imperialist wars.
What the US needs is a mobilization of the population against the corrupt oligarchy of which Trump and Biden and their party cronies are creations.
(Iwould say good luck as this has been needed and tried but fails due to the defenders of the status quo)
Trump admin gutting what little protection middle class had to survive the pay day lenders and inter state loan sharks, many sharks are rushing to New Jersey under change of regs to “enjoy” 30% interest on loans, pay day loans much higher-this in a time when middle class are really hurting, lost jobs, no income, unemployment. (I’m wondering if heartless, souless pompass somehow has a hand int this heartless effort.
This site has a number of good articles on the pending financial disaster which will be one cause of the rotting corpse rolling over:
Other articles, titles self explanatory:
my comment: not unexpected but stupidity beyond belief-dimo congress also picking it up.
Apologies if this is overload but I do have one question, which if possible from some more knowledgeable:
One of the speakers cited in cafe i(cke) makes a point that the marxist manual (if one exists) says focus on one target for the complete takeover of an empire-he uses trump as the target, blame him for everything, which they have done-this is not to say that he does not present a very ripe target in almost every field but it does lay bare some of the thinking and strategy behind this racist hoax, the continung russiagate stupidity, etc.
Is this a marxist strategy?? Prob does not matter but it may work in the absence of leadership on the other side, something we do not have now.
” marxist manual (if one exists)”
It doesn’t exist.
The opponents tend to be bound by devotional texts sometimes known as playbooks/strategies ( sometimes refered to by others as cooking recipes), whilst attempting to “assure” their perceived target audience that others emulate such practices, including by way of “marxist manual”.
The opponents’ perceived target audience is “their population” as Mr. Rove observed.
Akso, the myth of millionaires in China is somewhat skewed: Their Offcome will only inherit thair personal walth, and not their businesses — since thor´se are on a maximum 50-year skewer .
Neither marxist nor máoist (for that matter. Marx & Engels had the strange idea that most of the North and West European popuace would becom eplebeian proletariat by and by — in the sky, Lord, in the Sky! Trotzky and Lenin made a fellow front for the industrial proletariat of the Russian Empire with farmers, intellectuals, muslims and Jews. Máo Zé’dōng’s commies had several bouts of “Common Front” with Sun Yat-sen (Sun Zhōngshān) ..and even the (3) times with Chiang Kai-shek (Jiáng Jièshí’) of the Guómíndǎng (The “Kuo-min.tang). Tha’s why there are still Guómíndǎng delegates at the meetings of the “National People’s Congress” and “National Consultative Congress” yearly on Bĕijing (Pekin).
America has only ONE ultimate Grand Strategy: American World Empire.
All of the USA’s specific attempts at “grand strategy” that this author babbles on about are merely different tactics (and political deceptions) to achieve this final American ambition.
For instance, the War on Terrorism–which this author complains did not achieve “any significant reduction in terrorism around the world”–was not about fighting terrorism but rather about the United States manipulating and indeed sponsoring terrorism like in Syria or Libya to advance this American imperial goal.
Simply put, Americans are the masters of deception and deceit.
Empire–evil empire–is the alpha and omega of the United States of America as a nation.
Everything else–freedom, democracy, human rights , etc.–are lies to conceal America’s malevolent Manifest Destiny.
The American empire’s dystopian epilogue
“Americans are the masters of deception and deceit.”
Perhaps they appear to be so to a decreasing “We the people hold these truths to be self-evident” audience, which apparently includes some of would like to be “masters”, but not an increasing fraction of all.
This is in part attempted by be facilitated by conflations, including but not limited to, strategy/hopes and democracy/representative democracy
It was actually China with its relentless growth which pulled the rest of the world out of the doldrums of the 2008 downturn. The west needs a shot of reality treatment. It is in palpable decline and needs – but with the present crew in control is not going to get – to take another look at its economic model. Apart from Germany the Anglo-American financialised/extractive model is no match for the Chinese productionist model. Clearly the Anglo-American model is no longer fit for purpose but the penny still hasn’t dropped with yesterdays men (or should I say ‘persons’) running the west. China has returned to growth at 11% quarterly, and 3.1% annually. The US is negative -31.7% Quarterly and -9% annually. (Trading Economics).The figures say it all really.
See also Michael Hudson.
Anglo-Zionists are still very dangerous, although on the decline. Some of them seem to realize this. But the problem is that they continue to reason within the framework of their ideal of power, whereas the solution is collaboration. They continue to reason within the schemas of Mac Kinder. Using the instrumentalization of a false Jihad they have been sowing chaos from the western Sahel to the border of China and Russia for 30 years. They attempt to create a closed multipolar world very close to the Orwellian dystopia (1984). They try by all means to impoverish China so that it closes in on itself. Time plays in favor of Eurasian integration. The biggest problem today seems to me to be the ultra-nationalist policies of India.
Some very intriguing things have happened. President Xi stressed the need to save food. What does he know that we don’t know? I think that there is some movement taking place in China right now, by the state and individuals, to store food. Big storm in sight that will shake much harder very soon (big reset, war, collapse of the $, lack of food on a large scale????). If the USA collapses and China closes we will all miss the world before.
” But the problem is that they continue to reason within the framework of their ideal of power, whereas the solution is collaboration.”
Not only, and not alone since others are similarly immersed:
“If the USA collapses and China closes we will all miss the world before.”
in their misguided notions of weness.
A hard – a very hard, shattering hard – landing for the American Empire is not just a welcome prospect, it is the only way that the psychopathic monstrosity can be prevented from destroying the rest of the world in its own death throes. Burn, baby, burn.
While we have a useful summary here of what the Anglophile Bluebloods of the Eastern Liberal US Establishment were taught to desire on behalf of their Senior Partners in London with the longer resumes in Empire Building ………….and it is interesting how they are struggling with reality …. like slaves………… attempting to gratify some Master In The Sky…or perhaps Lucifer himself,…….there are plenty of fallacies of composition in the report besides the Sick Joke of “The War On Terror”.
The primary fallacy, IMHO… is the assumption of top to bottom uniformity of thinking in American society on the Straw Man Uncle Sam assumed to exist in place of the once republican identity of the place, now twisted for All Time into a maniacal and self-defeating, demented National Identity insanely pursuing “World Hegemony” which Americans never should have been manipulated into ever even considering……in the first place.
Scoff as much as you like, but there are multiple signs that Donald Trump understands the problem……….but correcting the course of this Ship of State……like a supertanker laden with hundreds of thousands of tons of oil….can’t exactly be turned “on a dime” even if the crew and officers were ALL with the program.
Which they obviously are NOT. However, things ARE going more positively for the Captain than for the Mutineers…and we have yet to see in full open display on the chart table what the true intended course actually is.
Sixty five days from today we will start to know how much…..or MUCH more likely………in my estimation…. how little……….. all these CFR and other think tank “policy papers” will be worth going forward. And more so, into 1st Quarter of 2021
BECAUSE: A growing number of Americans ARE getting educated as to how USS America got so far off course and have ZERO remaining respect, admiration or awe for those pathetic imperial anglo-feely-feely “gentleman” of ZERO moral worth to the World…..OR America, for that matter.
And THAT is the primary fallacy of composition in this and the vast majority of current day reports: Omitting that delta in the Zeitgeist globally…………..which is actually more astir here……than anywhere else in the world.
Whether you “like” that fact or more likely don’t (because it over complicates the narrative of collapse and dissolution many understandably but foolishly lust for….out of some misguided vengefulness……) it should neither be ignored nor omitted, because I assure you it does exist to a degree almost unimaginable not that long ago.
And THAT Delta is what should be studied and worked with, not those Frustrated Sodomizers in those “liberal” establishment or neocon think tanks.
Exciting Times, for Opportunity IS the flip side of Crisis.
This is an interesting analysis, but like most it misses a (perhaps the) fundamental aspect.
Western strategic decisions are hugely influenced by the politics of the day. Those politics are determined by the mechanism of party politics, and it should be well understood by all who peruse this site that party politics is a pea and thimble con game run by those whose ambition is to dictate world affairs.
A consequence of party politics is the the best and brightest minds steadfastly refuse to engage in the arena because those minds understand that it requires dishonesty and an acceptance of conflicted interests from the participants. This dynamic, rinsed and repeated through the election cycle over many decades has left us with a polity well exemplified by Donald Trump, Scott Morrison, Boris Johnstone, and an ever growing list of other individuals in elected positions whose presence at a family gathering would be cause for embarrassment and shame. (hence Trumps observation about the quality of Chinese and Russian leadership)
Expecting Western politicians to appreciate the need for, and to have the ability to formulate, a comprehensive strategic policy beyond their short term electoral needs is to have completely unrealistic hopes that a selectively bred cohort will sudddenly develop characteristics that have been unintentionally bred out of the cohort by those very fools who have been carefully breeding that cohort by selecting out real intellect and integrity and using that cohort to advance their agenda of global dominance.
I don’t think the policies of the West are short-term. Examples:
– The invention of the steam engine made slavery obsolete. The English slavers then promoted communication for the abolition of slavery. As a result, Africa as a whole has become a colony of exploitation.
– In France, in the last quarter of the 19th century the colonial party fought against the influence of the church, while they stipulated missionaries in Africa who opened the door to colonial exploitation. The two spaces are again united around the anti-communist struggle during the Cold War.
– The Arab revolt of 1916 (Lawrence of Arabia) was followed by a remarkably coherent plan. Giving control of the holy places to a band of extremists. Creation of the Muslim Brotherhood, the World Islamic League, all financed by petro-dollars.
– As the American unipolar moment began, they deployed their Jihadist armies to wreak havoc in the Muslim world.
Check out this link: https://writingasiplease.wordpress.com/2013/02/28/1984-geography/
Orwell’s disputed area is actually the Muslim world. It is ravaged by wars waged by Muslims manipulated by the Anglo-Zionists against Muslims. Rather than being the hub of the multipolar world, the Muslim world is manipulated for its own destruction. The chaos that reigns there is an obstacle to Eurasian integration (Silk Road).
Intra-Muslim chaos is the result of long-term identity manipulation. The same pattern prevails in the Great Lakes region of Africa. The Hamitic cleavage implanted by the missionaries continues to be manipulated by the Papacy and the West to block the development of the entire center of the continent. King Leopold genocide 1/3 of the population of Congo. King Baudoin ravages Congo, Burundi and Rwanda at the time of independence. France and the Papacy repeat the maneuver in Rwanda in 1994 with an extension to the whole Congo (MONUSCO). Rwanda is to the Congolese wealth what the Strait of Hormuz is to the oil of the Persian Gulf.
These are coherent policies that demonstrate remarkably consistent leadership over the long term. Identity manipulation is at the heart of Western policies. Is it possible to defeat them by not explicitly combating them?
The problem with imperial powers is that they never know when to stop, whether it is the Romans, Imperial Spain, Napoleon, or our friends the Exceptional And Indispensable Folk. At various times, they could have scaled back their unbridled ambitions and created a very bright future for themselves. But no. They had to push and push and push, till potential friends and allies (Russia in 1812, China and Russia today), are forced to stand their ground to defend themselves. The world is simply too big and too complicated and too diverse to be ruled by any one state.
America may already be on the verge of collapse. This could come with astonishing and unexpected rapidity, like the Eastern European regimes 30 years ago.
You tell Paul : <>
In their world, evil is evil only when it thwarts their interests. For them the supreme value is the accumulation of wealth and power. Good is all that favors it. Evil is everything that thwarts it. So for these people they do good even when in reality they do evil. This is the reality of their world. It is crossed by a double allegiance. This double allegiance is in fact a masked allegiance to Mammon, Satan whom they call “the great architect” in the discreet, even secret circles that structure their actions in the long term.
“For them the supreme value is the accumulation of wealth and power. Good is all that favors it.”
This is a widely held belief which facilitates obfuscation of both process and purpose thereby deflecting focus, targeting and transcendence.
Generally the purpose of “these people” is accumulation of power, facilitated initially by the accumulation of “wealth”, including but not limited to money and relationships – (blat) in Russian, through which further accumulations of power can be facilitated, encouraging further relations: money becoming akin to chips in the casino whose relevance is facilitating sitting at the roulette table for one more spin.
To effect any lateral system among the key considerations are where and how to intervene to affect the trajectory of transcendence if appropriate..
Like Mr. Ley lately of Enron, Mr. Berezhovsky’s “well being” was based on the opinion of himself and others that he was the smartest and most charismatic in the room/Russia/world/etc, which he believed facilitated his too-big-to-failness.
Mr. Berezhovsky was of the opinion that he facilitated the election of Mr. Yeltsin and that was an unalloyed advantage. However he was not alone in that illusion which facilitated “challenges” from many who perceived different unalloyed advantages..
Like many of the “oligarchs” and their associates, Mr. Berezhovsky had engaged in mischief even before the 1990’s, and was forgetful of the idiom that sharks tend not to attack other sharks unless the shark to be attacked has an adverse effect on the “environment”, and forgetful that perhaps his continuing stay in Russia was not wholly facilitated by his “genius and conviviality” or selling Beatles LPs outside MGU.
However following the advice of his former protege Mr. Abramovich and others, Mr. Berezhovsky took “his money” and went to London, partly to be with some of the rest of “his money”, whilst retaining a lesser assay of belief in his “genius and conviviality”.
However like some who wanted to increase their profile in new environments Mr. Berezhovsky emulated past behaviours – in Mr. Berezhovsky’s case he attempted to create a political base in Latvia, an attempt which was less than effective.
In the meantime his former protege Mr. Abramovich also realised some advantages of being in London – the subsequent realisation of disadvantages possibly leading to his change of citizenship in case he needed the right to return to somewhere sunnier..
Mr. Berezhovsky came to the view that Mr. Abramovich had “cheated” him and so Mr. Berezhovsky sued Mr. Abramovich in one of the highest courts in England to the wide interest of others.
Mr. Berezhovsky’s suit not only failed but the process of doing so exposed his character and facilitated his fallabilities.
The experience apparently jogged Mr. Berezhovsky’s memory in matters of sharks and vulnerabilities, and so in emulation of some Roman emperors he retired to his bath and committed suicide, thereby validating the hypothesis that:
“the purpose of “these people” is accumulation of power…” an exception apparently being Mr. Potanin followed by others post March 2000.
Pueblo and Hopi Peoples have historical legends, also. This “Fourth World” may not make the time period as an enlightenment, either. An integral composite of the COVID agenda was genocide of our human beings over 65. Not exactly a respectful energy for the humans in a winter years time period. Digital “money” Algorithms have been running the economic paradigmatic earth livelihood since when, precisely? The in-control of nuclear power, in the “west” are not higher intelligence. Saker, your site & MOA as always, incredibly brilliant enlightenment. Thanks as always!