Dear friends,

First, I just wanted to let you know that I am working on two interviews which I think you will find interesting: one with Michael Hudson and one with an expert on Syria, who prefers to remain anonymous.  Both should be very interesting.  Please give me a few more days to deliver these.

Now, about the Ukraine.  Please read this report:

http://thesaker.is/what-really-happened-in-marinka-truce-not-over-yet-but-getting-eroded-just-like-before/

and watch this one:

http://thesaker.is/4-06-2015-military-report-of-novorossia/

Bottom line: this situation is very VERY tense.

Listening to the junta propaganda, this appears to be preparatory attacks for an imminent “reconquista” of Donbass, but this is not necessarily so.  My own evaluation is that this is probably not a prelude to a massive Ukronazi attack, but it is definitely an attempt to provoke Russia and sabotage any ongoing negotiations, while giving the Empire a reason to demand an extension of the sanctions.  I say that, because according to many reports the Ukrainians are now extremely frightened of the Novorussians: twice already, their counter-attacks were stopped (Minsk 1 and Minsk 2) at the last moment, but nobody believes that a Minsk 3 will happen.  In other words, if the Ukronazis attack, they will be taking a huge risk.  I might be wrong, but my sense is that they will try to delay the (otherwise inevitable) moment when they will have to launch their last attack.

Europe and the OSCE are taking the typical spineless attitude towards these events.  The OSCE is reluctantly reporting that the Ukronazis have brought back a lot of their heavy weapons and that civilians are being killed every day.  The EU is strenuously looking the other way.

It is pretty clear that Kerry, Nuland & Co got nothing out of Lavrov or Putin and that “punitive escalation” is the US response to the Russian refusal to budge.

Officially, the Russians are sticking to their original stance.  However, I am also sensing a change in tone.  There are now public discussion about the need to gather the Federation Council to re-authorize Putin to take military action in the Ukraine, if needed.  The consensus seems to be that since the Ukronazis did sign M2A, they now have to abide by it and that no “M3A” or any other negotiations will take place.  Some very senior politicians have indicated that if the Ukronazis attack again, “all bets are off” or, to use the favorite US expression “all options are on the table”.

I am increasingly getting a feeling that Russia will now oppose any other kind of “efforts” or negotiations.  Ukrainian suggestions that this or that new idea has to be discussed, are summarily dismissed in Moscow.  The Russians seem to have concluded that they have the Ukrainians, the EU and the USA exactly where they want them to be and that the best thing to do now, is to wait.

In other words, neither the Ukronazi junta nor their US patrons are going to get anything out of Russia at this point.  I believe that they understand that.  Worse (for them), time is running out and the Ukrainian economy has essentially collapsed and for all practical purposes, is in a state of default (the Rada’s vote to allow Iats to choose which creditors to pay – or not – is, essentially, an admission of bankruptcy).

Barring a miracle of some kind, the Ukronazis will simply have to attack as a war or, better (from their point of view) a Russian “invasion” (which would be a liberation, of course) is now the only and last option left to cover up the total collapse not only of the US Ukrainian policy, but also of the entire “Independent Ukraine” project.

Of course, a major false flag is also a very real option.

The next couple of weeks will be very, very dangerous.

The Saker

The Essential Saker: from the trenches of the emerging multipolar world