By Nightvision for the Saker Blog
Firstly, the biggest news at the forefront is that the Mariupol situation appears to be nearing a possible conclusion. We reported last time that one prominent source said Azovstal would be fully resolved by 4/30 (today), while Sladkov said days ago that Azov had about 9 days of food left, which by now would put them at maybe 6 days or less, by those estimations.
We also reported that negotiators had arrived and were settling in to the small villages around Mariupol. Now today there is a large, full blown UN / Red Cross operation under way to evacuate the civilians in the Azovstal factory.
Now as many have seen a family was the first to leave the Azovstal factory yesterday, and now today it’s being reported by Novosti that 25 people have been released, including 6 children. The interesting thing is that the first family released said there were “70+ others” left in the bunkers, though I’m unclear if they meant 70 people or 70 families (presuming it’s total people). This is in stark contrast to Azov’s claim that over ‘1000’ civilians were hiding beneath the factory. It’s clear that Azov likely lied to inflate the numbers for obvious reasons.
With the UN and Redcross involved, it’s unclear what the terms of the current negotiations are. Here’s one report:
“In Bezymenny (Novoazvsky district of the DPR), negotiations are underway regarding the evacuation of civilians from the territory of Azostal. Representatives of the UN and the IWC are participating.
Earlier, the Kremlin has already outlined its position on these negotiations – the evacuation of civilians can be easily carried out, the main obstacles to the evacuation are the Nazis themselves, who do not want to let go of the human shield.
Nobody is going to let the Nazis go, there will be no humanitarian corridors for them.
The only chance for them is to surrender.”
You can see dozens of evacuation buses there: https://twitter.com/uasupport999/status/1520465607422091264
A rough calculation of ~30 buses, with maybe ~30-50 people per bus could be enough for over 1000+ people, so either the original Azov civilian estimates were right OR the UN is really hoping to evacuate their Azov terrorists as well. At the moment Azov is pleading to at least evacuate the wounded and the wives/families of trapped Azov have been rallying now for the release of their militants along with the civilians as well:
Anything could happen but there’s a chance that the entire Azovstal saga could end in the next day or two. The plant appears surrounded as Russian forces have captured everything but the main complex where they’re all hiding, and though the remaining Azov/marine militants are said to be numbered in the 2000 range, upwards of 600+ or more of them are said to be wounded or incapacitated.
Head of the DPR Denis Pushilin believes it will all end very soon. He has stated: ‘“Very soon, I really count on it, the situation with Azovstal in Mariupol will be completed, and we will see a large number of mercenaries there,”– he said on the air of Channel One.’
Pushilin also announced large construction sites in Mariupol will start as soon as Azovstal is done, and DPR spokesman Basurin said that a park in memory of those killed in Mariupol might be laid out on the site of the former Azovstal factory complex.
Though videos still come out showing some Mariupol fighting, we were told that most of them are as much as 10 days old due to the timed release method of information so that the enemy does not see current RF troop movements, so the fighting likely has already ended, though Azov/Arestovich still claim that their fighters conduct “sorties” above ground “when they are able to” – whatever that means.
With that said, one amusing video was released of close quarter fighting which shows Russian marines storming a building while attempting to communicate with some of the foreign mercenaries trapped there in both English and French:
And on the topic of mercenaries, there’s been a deluge of new updates.
Not only was another British merc named Andrew Hill captured and interrogated:
But the first American mercenary death was announced:
While Russia also captured two British NGO workers near Zaporizhzhia:
And British press is now reporting on the death of Scott Sibley, a mercenary we reported on last time:
Also, there was one unconfirmed report that said:
“#IMPORTANT Russian Spetsnaz unit in #Kherson captured 2 Russian-speaking British #SAS operatives on April 21, after a leak of their position from #Kiev. They were conducting recon for #London (these are not mercenaries). Leak suspected from #Zelensky’s office or #Ukrainian MFA.”
This is not unbelievable as we’ve already reported last time that SAS is openly working in Kiev and elsewhere.
A Georgian mercenary fighting for Azov was not so fortunate.
His before and after:
And a Danish mercenary was reported killed
“When luck refused the “soldier of fortune” , a 25-year-old Danish mercenary died in Ukraine, where he fought as part of a foreign legion. It happened in Nikolaev, the military commander of TV channel TV 2 Rasmus Tantoldt reported.”
Some are in fact saying it’s this guy, but there is no confirmation:
Now to segue to some of the developments from last time regarding the possible upcoming NATO escalations in Ukraine. Russian intel agency head Naryshkin, who issued the statement last time regarding Poland’s planned incursion has also now stated that, “plans to deploy a Polish “peacekeeping contingent” in the western part of Ukraine is not a version, but intelligence information obtained from several reliable sources, the Foreign Intelligence Service explained.”
In short, he’s saying this is not speculation but an accurate report based on many sources.
Also: “Military expert Yuriy Kotenok talks about plans to bring Polish, Romanian and other military contingents to Ukraine under the legend of “exercises”. The decision has already been made. BTG will be covered from the air. Their task is to prevent Russia from completing the operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine.”
Unfortunately this is for Russian speakers only as there’s no subtitles here: https://bastyon.com/index?v=2000ace73f9745dd7511ac5dccdee93a635aafe127381eaf08e5a54d8db2a12a&video=1&ref=PARV591XENALBB5ApkR7WcQPhEZtLHfi2A
And a Ukrainian account has stated: “Our source in the OP said that the General Staff has already prepared a military campaign to neutralize the Russian group in Transnistria.”
While Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Defense, General Zavarzin, “called for missile strikes on headquarters in Kyiv and Lvov.”
And here’s one analyst’s take:
A strike force of NATO countries near the borders of Ukraine and Belarus – what is it for? Is it really about an ordinary peacekeeping mission?
In light of the latest information about the aspirations of Poland and other NATO members, several questions arise. Firstly, what contingent is now formed on the eastern borders of the bloc, and secondly, why are all these forces being accumulated?
It is impossible to accurately assess the grouping of NATO countries, drawn to the borders of the Republic of Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and Russia, having only information from open sources.
However, from what is known, a total contingent of 50,000 to 100,000 people can be inferred. This includes units deployed by Poland, and the American contingent, and units of various NATO countries deployed in the framework of exercises in the Baltic states. There is also information about a serious Romanian group in the Moldovan direction. Just as we wrote earlier, combat aircraft are also being transferred to Europe. In the shortest possible time, the size of the NATO contingent can be doubled.
NATO’s ultimate strategy on this issue is currently unclear, but several options could be considered. Firstly, this can be done for a banal intimidation of Russia and an attempt to put pressure on the course of a special operation in Ukraine, and secondly, in the West they perfectly understand that Ukraine as a country no longer exists and see its future on the principle of occupation sectors. And the third option is the most terrible, but the least likely: NATO decided to go all the way and, if lend-lease and hybrid warfare do not stop the Russians, then regular units of Western countries will step in. This, of course, is a 100% threat of the use of nuclear weapons. It looks utopian, but in 2022 everything is possible.”
And from Colonel Cassad:
“The main topic that worries many today is the adoption by the US Congress of the lend-lease program for Ukraine. Delivery of large batches of modern weapons is expected soon. The war will reach a new level, because now we will also have to fight with the American military industry. Deliveries of American heavy weapons are expected, including F-16 aircraft. Today we wrote that Ukraine is already preparing pilots for these machines. Here you need to understand once and for all, we are at war with NATO, where Ukraine is just cheap service personnel and cannon fodder.
Also on the Belarusian-Polish border, there is a transfer of a shock group of troops from Poland. The answer to this was the sending of Belarusian units to strengthen the border.”
And John Kirby yesterday: ‘US Defense Press Secretary John Kirby:
“Today I can announce that the United States has begun training the Ukrainian armed forces to use key weapons at US military bases in Germany.”’
On the topic of Lend Lease, it became a curious discovery that on the official U.S. Congress website, the date of the submission of Lend Lease to Congress was seen as 1/19/22.
So how is it that it was proposed a full month before Russia’s invasion on 2/24?
There are more military transfers being rushed to Ukraine: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1520170505516503040
And reports like the following:
“Kiev secretly sent Kharkiv cadets to the United States to learn to fly the F-16, which will soon enter service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine under lend-lease Kiev decided in advance to retrain its pilots for the NATO fleet. As it became known to Readovka, the cadets of the Kharkiv Higher Military School were sent to one of the European NATO countries and to the United States in early February for emergency retraining in the management of American F-16s. The cadets were taken directly from the 4th year classes. All of them were transported in complete secrecy. Thus, it is more likely that NATO, together with Kiev, knew about the imminent deployment of a special operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and tried to work ahead of the curve. The law passed the day before by the US Congress authorizing the lend-lease of heavy weapons to Ukraine apparently involves the supply, among other things, of American F-16 fighters. There is also information that the lend-lease announced by the United States was launched solely to legalize the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine. https://t.me/readovkanews/32369”
From a Ukrainian channel: “The Pentagon has begun planning military operations for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbas to contain the Russian army. The Ukrainian General Staff permanently hosts several dozen NATO generals in the status of military advisers who participate in the discussion and decision-making on key issues.”
“The General Staff permanently hosts several dozen NATO generals in the status of military advisers who participate in the discussion and decision-making on all key issues.”
So all of this brings me to the following big topic. Which is that there is a lot of conversation revolving around how the Russian SMO is going, with many people unable to reconcile the two opposing sides who both claim they are winning easily. Understandably this creates a strange paradoxical dichotomy where each side says they are smashing the other, and each side posts material that conveniently reflects their stated ‘strategy’ as evidence that everything is in fact going to plan.
i.e. Russia posts its advances and mass destruction of AFU units and says this is clear evidence of ongoing victory. And AFU posts its retreats and says that these are all strategic retreats and that Russia is in fact being both bled and led into a trap from which they will never emerge.
So I wanted to address this with some new material that can shed light and contextualize the U.S./Ukraine’s overall grand strategy.
In short, it is this: it is becoming increasingly clear that the grand strategy is to slowly abandon the Donbas, but in the process, slow down and attrition the Russian forces as much as possible, while simultaneously reconstituting a massively armed new NATO-standard army in the West.
Not only has NATO and U.S. both now released statements that they are readying for a “long war” of up to 10 years in Ukraine, but there are reports like the following:
“Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President (of Ukraine) is ready for a long war that will last 2-3 years. Kiev does not consider a possible defeat on the eastern front to be critical for Ukraine,
the main thing is that the battles for Donbas exhaust the Russian army and last for several months. Using time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive modern heavy weapons and will be able to launch a counteroffensive in the South of Ukraine.”
In a recent interview on his youtube channel, chief presidential advisor Arestovich openly confirms the above. In fact he plainly tells host Feigin that with all the new NATO equipment coming in, it will take them about 1 to 2 months max to arm a new army in the west, and that Ukraine will be ready to create mass counter-offensives from the west starting in mid to late June.
So in short, their entire strategy is to stall Russian forces in the east as much as possible by conducting slow, orderly retreats, even if it means eventually giving up the entire Donbas – in fact in the same interview Arestovich says that he fully expects Russia to encircle Kramatorsk/Slavyansk but that it will turn into “another Mariupol”, or so he hopes. And then by late June, even if Donbas is lost, they expect to be able to retake it with massive new Ukrainian offensives utilizing newly reconstituted reserves armed with full NATO arsenals, from German tanks to American F-16’s and everything in between.
On the RF side, some already accuse them of heavy ‘coping’ and excuse making, where the narrative is now shifting from “we’re winning in the Donbas” to “it’s ok if we lose the Donbas, we’ll retake it later.”
In fact Arestovich foresaw all of this, in his famously prescient 2017 interview he not only predicted the Russian war to happen around 2022, but he said there will be at least 2 wars, possibly 3, one following in around 2024, then another 2026+ or later. The reason being is that, he foresaw a stalemate with Russia taking Donbas but being drained and depleted, forcing to compromise in a treaty that leaves western Ukraine. Then Ukraine would get armed to the teeth by NATO and a new war would take place a year or two later, similar to Chechnya 1 and 2 where Russia had to go in to finish the job a second time.
So this brings me to the issue of military hardware and who is winning. The main problem for the Ukrainian side, is they rely entirely on the belief (real or not) that they have endless reserves of manpower. Arestovich and others have said, “our problems are opposite, we have endless manpower but no equipment, and Russia has endless equipment but not enough manpower.”
The chief problem here is the blanket assumption that Ukraine has endless reserves and high remaining morale. But there is increasing evidence that this is not the case. Not only are mass surrenders increasing, but each time they happen the troops complain of the same things, low morale, high desertion rates, resentment towards their commanders. And increasingly the troops are from the far west, old, and haggard which proves that Kiev is already tapping its absolute reserves from the west of the country, rather than local reserves held back at 2nd and 3rd echelon lines like near Pavlograd, Poltava, etc.
Secondly, there is increasing discontent amongst the populace. Today in the far west city of Khust, where these reserves are already being tapped as I just outlined, the wives, mothers, and family of soldiers being sent to the front virtually rebelled and started destroying the local military offices, and this is becoming increasingly common:
They don’t want any more war.
I already reported last time how the ‘grand popular uprising’ that Zelensky promised (read: hoped for) of the molotov-armed partisans was a complete failure. In fact now, more and more we’re seeing secret pro-Russian underground resistance cells forming in all the major cities who have released videos and are promising to help take the city once Russia arrives. Such cells now exist in Kharkov, Nikolayev, Odessa, and elsewhere:
And in Nikolayev, one report said: “According to available information, the elite of Nikolaev, businessmen, politicians, fellow bandits, are negotiating with the Russian side on the bloodless surrender of the city. Nobody wants to repeat the example of Mariupol
They ask for guarantees for the preservation of assets, business and participation in the political life of the city. There is a bargaining going on, while guarantees will not be provided to Kim, a different fate will await him.”
Though this is speculative, we know for a fact this very thing happened several times already, including a Kharkov mayor who was arrested for trying to peacefully hand over the city at the outset of the conflict.
Also, there is the belief that Ukraine maintains the giant pre-war numbers we were all given, but in fact it’s been greatly hidden by the authorities what vast amount of people, particularly military-aged men, have fled the country or gone into hiding, refusing service.
According to the Russian MOD almost 50,000 of AFU’s manpower has already been irrecoverably attritioned whether by KIA, MIA, WIA, POW, etc.
This was posted on a Ukrainian account: “Colleagues, we published that the Kremlin handed over lists of POWs, of which there are more than 4,000 thousand. For the Office of the President, this is a big problem, which they will not be able to keep silent about for a long time, in Kiev they are now looking for a formula on how to submit information to the public. Surrender is becoming a mass phenomenon, because of some brigade commanders who simply throw the guys on the tanks, while they themselves are tens of kilometers away from the fighting. Indicative in this regard is the case of the 93rd brigade, our soldiers got into a tactical encirclement , because of the tyranny of the command, and no one comes to their aid.”
Arestovich spoke on this in his newest interview where he said there has been a problem of mass morale loss of soldiers calling their relatives and saying that everything has gone to hell, but of course he continues to say that these soldiers are playing into the hands of Russian propaganda.
Today’s newest report is that 1000 AFU soldiers are now surrounded and trapped in Oskil, pushed against the bank of the Donetsk river without any vehicles to cross it. This could soon bring another 1000 POWs as well as the 2000 that will soon come from Azovstal.
Ukraine is losing 300-400 men per day to KIA and POW alone.
From RF MOD: “Losses of the Ukrainian side as a result of a special military operation of the RF Armed Forces on April 30, 2022
▪️During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 556 people killed, wounded and captured. The total loss of killed, wounded and captured in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, NSU and State Border Service is over 47 thousand people.
▪️According to the internal report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 6 tanks, 39 armored vehicles, 21 field artillery and mortars, 7 MLRS, 25 vehicles and special equipment and 23 UAVs were lost.”
Just look at today’s newest graphic losses (18+++):
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side continues to rely heavily on the belief that Russia is simply being attritioned faster, and this is what will lead to victory. Bellingcat reports that Russia has used up 70% of all its missiles. However, commentators were quickly to point out the following inconvenient fact:
The 2nd in command of Bellingcat said Russia would “collapse” by the coming Sunday, on March 4th.
The fact of the matter is, 50k of the AFU are gone, another 50k are trapped in Donbass and are slowly being grinded down. Millions have fled the country (Russia has taken 1+ million refugees alone, and much more went west, to europe and elsewhere) so we can expect that the vast majority of the fighting age males have left or gone underground.
Based on what we’re seeing on the frontlines, the most distant reserves already being used and depleted, the riots of family members in western Ukraine proving their last reserves are already being tapped, one can only conclude that Ukraine will not have anywhere near the numbers of fighters left to arm with all the incoming ‘NATO toys’.
On that note, read this illuminating new frontline report from a highly respected source, the famous Serb fighter in the Donbas, Dejan Beric (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dejan_Berić)
In short, the public is now being conditioned to move the goalposts such that losing Donbas no longer means a loss in the war, but is just a momentary strategic retreat until the mighty NATO wunderwaffens from the West allow the AFU to strike back with a vengeance.
Last time I reported the bridge being blown in Slavyansk, pictured with the purple circle on the left:
Now they’ve blown the bridge even further east (red circle) in preparation for the coming reality.
And strangely, U.S. officials are now claiming Russia is only “days” behind schedule in Donbas, when previously it was weeks if not months.
And finally, reports now indicate that the British expect Putin to formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9th and begin mass mobilization.
“The British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which is expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared.”
The British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which its expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared. pic.twitter.com/jOSvmMkDrw
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 29, 2022
Of course this could be complete nonsense and propaganda on their behalf, or it could be another case of predictive programming, self-fulfilling fantasy. Just like when they ‘predicted’ Russia would invade in february but in actuality pushed Ukraine to bring a massive army to the Donbas contact line, start shelling Donbas and Russian territory in order to force Russia to invade, here may be the same situation. This could be a sign that they plan to massively escalate by invading Transnistria (and perhaps western Ukraine) and forcing Putin to mobilize so they can again claim it was Russia’s plan to do it on the heroic May 9th all along.
In fact MSM is already conditioning the public with what a response might look like to Russian nuclear use:
To conclude, we see that Ukraine’s strategy is to try to bleed Russia in Donbas as much as possible before the eventual collapse and pull out, then ‘hope’ for huge amounts of reserves in the far west of the country to remain so they can be armed with NATO wunderwaffen for a big summer blockbuster Barbarossa offensive to unironically start by June 22.
By NATO’s own admission that they are ready to supply and stand with Ukraine for a war lasting “3 to 10 years”, we can infer that they understand Russia is in fact not running out of anything (be it manpower or supplies) any time soon, and that the war will in fact be long – the rest is just propaganda for public consumption.
There’s no more room for now to cover the likelihood or probability of any of these plans to work, perhaps next time. But for now I’ll leave you with one last stomach-turning story. In Hostomel, near Kiev, a Ukrainian video influencer decided to go out to one of the wrecked tanks, and found himself some remains of a ‘dead Russian soldier’, which he decided to cook and eat to great internet acclaim in his country.
(18+) for anyone with the stomach to watch:
Now whether this is a staged ‘stunt’ or not, the fact of the matter is on social media he was said to have gotten greatly positive feedback from many Ukrainians who urged others to go out and cannibalize dead Russian soldiers. This is just an insightful look into Ukrainian society and their inculcated, absolute inhuman hatred of Russians.
And of course there’s the unfortunate fact that experts have determined without a shadow of a doubt that the tank from which he foraged his unholy delicacy was in fact a Ukrainian T-64 (and not a Russian T-72), a tank Russia does not use (nor was DPR/LPR anywhere near Hostomel at any time).
You can draw the conclusions to what this means for the poor, attention-seeking, self-avowed cannibal.
The US will continue to send weaponry to Ukraine, until there is no longer any Ukrainian soldier capable of wielding it.
Russia will proceed to destroy these weapons before they reach the line of contact, and if they do they will be captured.
The US will resort to all kinds of mercenaries, including regular troops from its NATO satellites. The devastation of Europe, starting with the Eastern countries, will be inevitable.
The decrepit colonial Europe, militarily occupied by the US since the end of WWII, will know the pains of being a colony. And it will discover itself as a disposable resource in the hands of its owner.
Conceived by Imperium as another Afghanistan for Russia, the war in Ukraine will become the new Vietnam for the US.
On the wide horizon steppes of Ukraine, the US will lose its sense of perspective. And it will find itself with no way out.
There is no reason for Russia to be in a hurry. Not least because the war leads to a stalemate. We will come to the brink of nuclear Armageddon.
How to avoid it?
It takes nerves of steel…
The messaging shift to a ‘long-war’ may be one more reason that Russia takes its time in order to suffer the fewest combat (and materiel) losses possible. Though the patient approach predates the long-war talk, and would likely therefore have been the Russian strategy anyway.
Pretty sure the West greatly underestimates Russia’s productive capacity and no reason to think they are running low on anything (except perhaps micro-chips, like the rest of the world?).
That said, no country is infinite. And though the West likely overestimates its own productive capacity, Russia may have to begin withholding some of the strategic resources the West currently needs, if at least to drive up the price of obtaining them elsewhere.
Russia’s plans are likely to be better developed than those of their Western adversaries.
• This is a USA war against Russia, fought on Ukrainian territory.
• The ultimate USA intention is to destroy the Russian state and the fragment the country.
• Even with Russia coming to fully take control of Ukraine, the USA will continue to use NATO to attack Russia.
• To win the war, Russia must defeat the USA.
Therefore, Russia’s strategy is guided by the need to impose a historic defeat on Imperium.
And the core of this strategy is the question: is it possible to defeat the U.S. militarily without the use of nuclear weapons?
On a day like today, April 30 1975, the US suffered a major defeat in the prolonged in Vietnam. But it was not a historic defeat.
Hopefully the U.S. faction, with its toadies, is defeated soon; however, the idea of East vs West is just another gang/countergang psyop, and ultimately should be understood as a fiction – when viewed from the perspective of an evil International Neocon control freak.
Russia was never part of it, has broken away under Putin, or things are really really bad. I’m pulling for the first and will gladly accept the second. Screw the third!
Very good points. Yes this is precisely what NATO is up to. However, there’s a simple solution. The US/EU, both are ruled and controlled by the AIPAC, EIPAC, respectively. In order to defeat the empire of fabrications, the AIPAC/EIPAC must be checked. In order to check these banking cabals, Israel must – in turn – be held accountable for the actions of the US/EU. Therefore, the best solution would be taking the Golan Heights back to Syria, while continuing to conduct the military operation in Ukraine. By the way, this is not a grudge against the people of the Jewish faith. More than 90 percent of people in Israel are in the same boat as others being held hostage of the Zionists, as it was shown recently by the pfizer/Astrazeneca jabs. At the same time, impose an oil/gas blockade of the west through the Persian Gulf. Finally, taking the control of the Bab al Mandab by helping people of Yemen in their battle against the west. Turkey, Kazakhstan Azerbaijan, Brazil, Mexico, India and the rest of the countries which the western media likes very much to represent them as opposing Tchaikovsky’s Nutcracker, not only won’t interfere in the above mentioned scenario, but for sure support the initiative when the time arrives. Most of these countries’ national funds are held at western financial centers that are used as a form of leverage against their governments in case they refuse to toe US’s directives. When we see them sometimes supporting the Uncle Shmuel is because they’re afraid the west freezes their assets, so they just symbolically support the west. And since, the big battle will replace the existing western financial domination, then for most countries it wouldn’t make sense supporting a declining system or risk endangering their own existence by siding with the losing party – the Empire of lies.
Who controls the UK?
Where is the head of the snake?
Would that be satan, would it be DECEPTION?
where would all of the media be controlled from?
Where is the Black Beast? NATO ? second black beast from the sea …invaders of military age ?
Where is the Whore of Babylon/red dragon?
$$$$ the monetary systems on infinite debt?
Let me know!
• “To win the war, Russia must defeat the US.” This is the point. As long as the US is standing, wars will not end. The problem is that taking them down means using nuclear weapons and, consequently, jeopardizing the safety of the planet. All these wars by proxy cause a lot of indignation and revolt when we see that the grantor (cruel/miserable/cowardly etc) remains unharmed, without suffering a miserable attack on his/her territory.
Wars aren’t just military in nature. There’s a bigger war, and it includes finances and resources.
Russia could not have initiated their SMO had they not had their financial ducks in a row (they have ample resources).
The US is likely going to be able to sputter along financially. It most certainly does have resources: enough for a maintenance level, but not enough for the growth paradigm. I’ll offer that it’s the rest of the collective West that’s the weak link that poses the threat of collapsing the US. The EU/NATO countries are in terminal nosedives (lacking resources and heavily in debt) and once they are smoldering the US will see its trade plummet after which the USD loses its status as worlds reserve currency. GAME OVER.
Insane actions by the US aren’t because they’re being commanded by stupid people. Don’t confuse “stupid” with “desperate.” Collapsing empires always enter into a desperation phase. I think that this is where we are now: I actually believe that the “War On Terror” was actually the start of this phase.
Wars will never end as long as there are people and there are contentions for resources.
Any competition with the USA will be economics and politics, not military. And that is where the USSR failed at.
With nuclear MAD, both are equals and there are no winners.
So economy, politics and social media are areas where Russians need to focus on.
Russia has short supply lines. Russia has fought on this ground before. Russia knows the infrastructure of the Soviet-era defences since this was where the USSR intended to fight if ever faced with a situation again.
Russia modulated its penetration of Ukraine to draw out The West.
It knows the West spent a long-time working out a strategy predicated on Soviet responses – since it had no idea what Russian military planners had learned from Desert Storm or Syria or Chechnya – it could only apply ingrained Western strategic logic to the situation.
Military minds in The West are incredibly inflexible. This is not a wartime military and so many have attained high rank with experience of little more than Colonial Wars like Afghanistan or Iraq. This was the problem of the British in WW1 – the key generals were Cavalry officers with experience of the Boer War and very few were Artillery officers and Royal Artillery officers were historically there on merit not social connections.
I think this is real “leap in the dark” stuff for NATO and that is why it is so ragged and gambling by throwing everything at the croupier as he spins the wheel. I think Russia is gathering Intelligence far beyond the battlefield to prepare for the wider war.
“….Russia has short supply lines. Russia has fought on this ground before….”
Good points mate. My main worry is that the rabid Doctor Stranglove types seriously outnumber the rational characters in the US and my country (the UK) nowadays. They are the kind that would see a nuclear war where most of the planet is wiped out as a ‘victory’ as long as Russia was destroyed totally. When he was on an official visit to Britain in the 1960s, Robert McNamara discussed such a situation of a full nuclear exchange with the USSR. The results they gamed were truly catostrophic, but they still saw it as a victory as (in their ‘game) part of the US survived. Talk about scorched earth! I don’t think you will find a General Rose telling the Yanks that we ‘won’t bloody start WW3 for you’ this time as happened in Serbia when Russian paratroopers landed at the airport.
Please understand that what the US government is doing is NOT the will of the People. The People of the United States are fighting the same enemy Russia is, the Satanic pedophile death cult that has infested all nations of the world led by the illuminati families, the Khazarian Mafia and the Central Banks. This war is as old as civilization itself, Ukraine is just the latest manifestation.
Unfortunately, I must say this still doesn’t explain the slow pace of advance of RF. There are daily reports of huge and catastrophic losses in manpower and equipment afflicted on the UAF, and taking into account their supposed problems with fuel, lack of repair facilities, low number of heavy weapone, no air support, old/sub standard NATO replacements, low morale and high desertation rates, how are they still managing to defend so well against RF that they are barely advancing anywhere along the front?
The only explanation is that the general offensive was still not launched.
Besides this, I’m afraid we might really end up seeing the deployment of tactical nukes.
Rubbish. Hypersonic missile kinetic impact is almost as deadly without the radiation .This is western doom porn. Russia doesn’t need to use nukes. Does the west need them in a land that historically has nothing to do with them?
I hope you are right, and we end up seeing some kind of change at the frontlines in the coming weeks.
All reentry vehicles are hypersonic. I wish people would stop believing the lie that this is a new technology.
OK so you launch a rocket that reaches Leo. To what point would you g
Have it drop a dozen 100kg rods when you can instead stop with a kiloton warhead?
The “new” hypersonics are cruise missiles, not ballistic. Please try and keep up.
There is no such thing as a “reentry vehicle”. Whether 100 kg rods or a hypothetical “kiloton warhead” (doom porn), nothing survives reentry from orbital flight (almost 8 km/s), simply because of thermal stress due to air friction – unless it can slow down against initial orbital speed plus the pull of gravity, which it can’t.
That said, hypersonic is just another word for supersonic (hyper = Greek, super = Latin, über = German etc), with no clear definition. Some say it is three times supersonic, okay, so be it. The A4/V2 reached top speed of almost Mach 5 in 1944 (4824 km/h) but would slow down on descent due to air resistence in the troposphere.
Agree completely FB… why is no one mentioning that the UAF has had YEARS in anticipation of just this war to install concrete bunkers, complex trench systems with communications, etc etc etc. They are ENTRENCHED!
Honestly I think the RF are making steady headway against this type of entrenchment. A recent article by a British journalist who just returned from Pisky in Donetsk said RF are doing great. He was told by a UAF soldier that the Russians had destroyed two brigades in 2 weeks.
I honestly get so sick of “why is it taking so long” when in fact it’s only been 2 months and Russia is bombing the shit out of military targets, fuel depots, UAF forces and now railways and bridges. I’ll see if I can find a link to the UK article cuz it does not paint a gloom and doom picture at all.
Also, I have to add I really appreciate this sitrep… thank you so much for putting all the pieces together.
In my personal opinion, US/UK/NATO are way overplaying their hands. I foresee some F-16 takedowns coming their way quickly. 4th year students from Kharkiv with 2 months of training does not a seasoned flight force make.
Also, Putin has alluded to some tricks up his sleeve that they do not know about. And another also, Lavrov has figured out the whole purpose of the US/UK/NATO response … and he has several times spoken of this battle being the move from a unipolar world to a multipolar world, and they know what they are dealing with.
They didn’t just fall of the turnip truck guys. Courage!
Tactical nukes will never be used.
Why to use tactical nukes against Ukraine when they are directed from Washington.
If Russia will ever decide to use nukes will be directly against the US. Washington, New York…. Maybe also Paris and London.
With Hypersonic missiles they will not have time even to run to bunkers.
Tactical nukes may be use later for self defence if countries like Poland decide to attack Russia.
But they will never be the starting point.
The only explanation? Another plausible explanation is that the UAF is not having all of these problems, or at least not the extent suggested, and the RF is incompetent and not capable of advancing against them. Why does no one consider that possibility?
Oh my! How brilliant. Best comment of the day. Why did we not consider that?
Probably because it is ludicrous on the face of it.
“they are just incompetent”
Is never a good answer, neither for you nor for your enemy. Do not underestimate your enemy, overestimate yourself or even underestimate yourself.
Nobody does good or bad simply because he is (in)competent.
Not the only explanation. It takes a different and time consuming approach to advance whilst protecting both infrastructure (as far as possible) and civilians, both of which Russia is doing, unlike US/EU/NATO which carpet bombs both. That way you tend to win both the war AND the peace, which is just as important – ref for example Iraq.
Agreed. I, too, don’t quite understand why even in this much more favourable setting, the Russian advance is taking place at such a measly pace. If I had to speculate, from a total layman and uninformed perspective, I would say that it is beginning to feel as though the combined offensive power of the available forces is being held back deliberately, so as to cause the Russian public to call for a firmer and more decisive approach.
… which is why you’re a layman of course, as am I. I really don’t think that the mothers and wives of Russian soldiers have an issue with this approavch, particularly since their sons/husbands are not dying in huge numbers comparative to their western backed counreparts in Ukraine.I don’t think the Russian public.just like the western public, would wish to see the nukes flying. Your wet dream will only serve to make your pants uncomfortable.
The new Russian “technical-military” weapon technology on new, up to now unknown physical basis feels, could be, seems to be:
An ordinary nuclear high explosion as before, but novel explosions without release of radioactive radiation. So:
– Explosions without any radioactive radiation,
– Explosions without contamination,
– Explosions without long-term destruction
(my way to knowledge: thesis-antithesis-synthesis, exactly after the philosopher Mr. Georg Friedrich Wilhelm Hegel, God rest his soul). The current eradication snail pace only serves to finally entice the indecisive, wavering NATO to intervene. More specifically, the infantile generals, idiots, who command NATO. To use the exponential destructive power of this environmentally friendly new type of weapon would mean, for times to come, ending forever the demilitarization not only of Ukraine, but of the “West.”
Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
I tend to agree, it seems to me that now is the time to settle this before the west can catch up. Hence all along the aim has been to drag NATO in . The battle ground has been chosen and this could include much of eastern Europe.
This is the preliminary stages of a much bigger war. Hence Russia has not even played 1/10 of its forces……
If Russia’s REAL war is against the West (and it is), then it seems to me Russia is baiting a huge trap.
Remember, Putin’s early Munich speech where he said being raised on the streets of St. Petersburg, he learned if you’re going to be in a fight, “throw the first and hardest punch” to knock out your opponent.
Putin is Ex- KGB. He knows all the tricks of our Dark State/CIA/NATO. Plus, he has a Ph.D in Economics. So, he knows the art of financial war, too..
This exciting play as several more acts to go!
“I, too, don’t quite understand why even in this much more favourable setting, the Russian advance is taking place at such a measly pace.”
I suggest you wait one more week until the end of Ramadan. Then the pace may pick up from a slow routine “measly pace” roll along towards a more aggressive advance.
How would you Andrew Brunner have engaged at Stalingrad. – choose a side and war-game it your way.
Or say, Kursk – how would you have done it ?
You know the terrain, the defences, the AWACS and SIGINT resources of the enemy.
Lay out your strategy and structure your criticism of the professional soldiers rather than offering a TV or Theatre Critic assessment
You mention Kursk and Stalingrad. To my vaguely informed mind, the Russian Army has that it would need to destroy fortifications and entrenched troops in the field: Ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, (heavy) artillery, tanks, close support aircraft, heavy/strategic bombers, if need be. What is more, are these entrechments and fortifications really as deeply layered and extensive as they were in Kursk?
i find it hard to believe that, say, 80-150 main battle tanks, and as many armoured personnel carriers, would not be able to brake through a narrow sector of this frontline, which happens to be in the open countryside, after a powerful artillery barrage and airstrikes, protected by mobile air defence systems, and supported by mobile howitzers, helicopters, Su 25 and Su-24 aircraft, so as to exploit the tactical surprise and push deep into the opponent’s hinterland. Speed and the element of tactical surprise would be key, as would be bypassing settlements and areas that are heavily defended. At an average speed of advance of, say, 30 km a day.
Or are such operations generally no longer feasible today?
Are Russian lines so thin and overextended that even in the Donbass, such a move is no longer possible?
Are Russian lines so thin and overstretched that keeping such a force supplied would bee impossible?
Does Russia not have the level of air superiority that would be required?
Would the Russian airforce not be able to exploit such a setting and target enemy units and formations which would try to reposition in response to a breakthrough?
Where is my thinking
I am not asking rhetorical questions, just trying to understand the military aspects of this tragic and terrible conflict, from a layman’s perspective.
Hemingway quote (might not be exact, but the words are close enough):
It happened slowly, then all at once.
Understand the notion of “tipping point.” Also understand that Russia’s aims were to de-militarize and de-natzify, not to kill as many Ukrainian troops as possible. It’s all a deliberate movement. Russia is on an offensive with what started out as historically low number of troops (conventional war strategists state something like requiring a 3 to 1 advantage- Russia was less than 1 to 1*).
* I had read that it was even WAY below this. When all is said and done we’ll get better numbers.
And as others have stated, Russians care to minimize their losses. In Phase 1 they likely suffered more than they really thought they were going to, but this was a very risky initial operation and to think it wouldn’t have a possibility isn’t realistic. Now, however, after eliminating a lot of Ukrainian forces and in bringing in more combat troops the ratio is a bit better for Russian forces.
Back to Hemingway’s quote… It’s about TIPPING POINT. Russia isn’t blowing the backrest off the chair, it’s blowing the legs out from underneath. The chair will tip and fall, and do so with a lot less effort.
Time given, however, has allowed a lot of defections. There will be a LOT of stories, enough such that the West’s propaganda won’t be able to counter. Enough folks remaining who will be able to carry and spread the reality of the war to others in the country/region: counter the propaganda B.S..
This is it. The tipping point is extremely hard to predict, but it’s always there. Once passed, events cascade rapidly. Similar to the SMO in Ukraine, which was a tipping point in geopolitics that was being approached for a very long time.
I’ve reached the conclusion that the standard mode of thinking is that war is always a blitzkrieg race to the enemy’s capitol to secure a political victory as quickly as possible. That’s not the case here and was stated openly by Russian leadership from the beginning. The “slow pace” is only slow if the goal is capturing as much territory as possible in the shortest amount of time. Still, I’m sure that the stavka would prefer things were happening more quickly.
Worth tempering that the US faced this in Iraq 2003. The plan to cut the territory in two and drive to Baghdad in 3 weeks was faltering due to various conditions. The US made a decision to ignore destroying the Iraqi army in the field and race to Baghdad in order to meet the political goal of declaring victory. The US got a 20 year insurgency for that decision. There was never any question that the US would defeat Iraq. It was decision driven by impatience to print the headlines of victory, and likely to reduce the probability of domestic public opinion turning negative given that the war was not fundamentally popular.
Russia is not in a similar situation. I’d argue that other than the potential for nuclear exchange, the current pace is advantageous to Russia in the wider, geopolitical context. Though I’d greatly prefer a quick end to limit death and destruction all around.
I want to point out that this is a HYBRID war, we are looking for the FINANCIAL tipping point. Which has already happened. The ruble is now pegged to gold and oil. The petrodollar no longer has the market cornered, the dollar is no longer backed by oil, and western economies face hyperinflation in a matter of months.
The premise that the west can afford to supply Ukraine for years is absurd. All the propaganda around a “long war” fails to acknowledge that the west is on the cusp of currency collapse.
The west is failing at regime change in Russia, whereas Russia is softly manufacturing inevitable regime change in the west. Western political elites are all owned by Jeffrey Epstein’s handlers, going against the will of the people to serve darkness. As the pain dial goes up the people of the West throw out their Zionist handlers. Russia doesn’t care when it happens. It’s definitely going to happen. The real end goal of the SMO is western regime change, and we are getting awfully close now
This has been explained numerous times here to exhaustion. Russian forces are moving slowly to avoid/minimise civilian and personnel casualties. The Ukies are dug in and have roaming guerilla units. These take time to neutralise.
They do not carpet bomb cities to the ground as the Great Satan loves to do.
Perhaps it’s strategic? We obviously do not know and therefore can only imagine what high command is actually executing.
Just my first thought…
The Russians may not be in a hurry. Think about the wider scenario here. The longer this takes, the more desperate the west becomes. They will not be getting the grain or fertilizer and people will be going hungry in the west. If you want to win the war with the west, the best way is to ensure the west implodes under it’s own steam. Ukraine is the battle. The war is being fought in more ways than just by military means.
Exactly my thinking. Why do the Russians need to be in a hurry? There is no reason whatsoever to hurry.
If they rush through the countryside without mopping up resistance and winning hearts & minds, they just leave problems & causes of weakness in their rear.
Going slowly allows there logistics to keep up, minimises troop & kit losses, and doesn’t pressure the men, and allows them watch & wait what the US/UK/NATO are going to do and remain one step ahead of them.
I’m a Brit but I’m 100% behind the Russians in this. I am shocked and ashamed at the immaturity, arrogance, stupidity of the UK & EU, and the deep corruption, venality and just plain evil of the US neocons who are the puppet-masters behind the US govt, whether Democrat or Republican, but mostly Democrat.
Why is it always the Democrats or Labour – representatives of the working class – who are the most self-serving?
In a previous post, maybe not here.. it was explained that there has been a subtle tactics change, to even more reduce Russ. casualties, that to totally soften up the Ukies with artillery and tank fire before going in. So General Maikol, just curious.. in which war did you get you hands on expertise?
The other reason they are being slow is that they do not need to waste their soldiers lives. They have cutoff the supply lines. When the Ukrainian soldiers in the east have no food, fuel or ammunition it is over for them with minimal loss of life.
The problem with that scenario is that the civilian population will suffer the most as the Ukrainian forces will steal whatever supplies they can.
The civilian population has gone. With only Ukr militants left, Russia can go full USer.
I think it’s just that if those claims were actually true that by now we would be seeing an increase in the pace of advance, but to me it seems the rate of advance has pretty much remained the same.
We were told that Izuym was a well defended city, it was so strategic, which is why UAF was throwing everything at it’s defense and that after capturing it the front there would collapse. How long has it been now since the capture and how much progress been made since capturing that “key”, and very well defended city?
Sure, it’s understandable that capturing cities takes time especially since they are trying to avoid civilian casualties, and UAF is using them as human shields. What is strange, at least to me, is that they are not able to more quickly surround various cities. It was said that the steppes of East Ukraine favour Russian tactics and use of tanks etc, but for now there is no indication of that whatsoever.
And if the Ukrainians are withdrawing slowly and more importantly deliberately then clearly the command & control has not been destroyed as claimed. So I think this all points to an over exaggeration of the damage inflicted by RF. In fact, I think it was in a soutfront article I read that RF claims to have destroyed more Ukrainian tanks than what they estimated Ukraine to have started the war with.
Russia has never been in too much of a hurry, otherwise Ukraine would no longer exist. Instead Russia minimises the harm to Ukrainian civilians, while it continues to take out the UAF. This ongoing heavy attrition explains the utter panic that we now see in NATO countries. I also would suggest that Russia will have known for many months if not longer that ultimately NATO was pushing for wide scale war. Given these circumstances it would be an important first step to eliminate the large Ukrainian military as a viable fighting force and already Russia seems to have achieved in very substantial measure. In short then, this is now about much more than Ukraine and it likely always has been.
” I also would suggest that Russia will have known for many months if not longer that ultimately NATO was pushing for wide scale war.”
I do believe that Russia has superior humint sources in the ‘west’ and knows a lot of their plans.
I remember several years ago VVP giving a very public and pointed thank you to their deep cover operatives that live overseas, and who’s efforts are usually unrecognised. At the time I wondered if the public nature of their recognition was actually a message to the west ie “I know what you are planning”.
And he was in charge of these people for a time when in the KGB/FSB.
I wont speculate on what the Russian command is thinking or planning. They continue to state, unequivocally that the military objectives will be met, however long it takes , and that the Future of Russia is not in “partnership” with the empire of lies. Mr. Lavrov states this openly and to everyone he talks to about it. Consider this, if Ukraines combined armed forces and unified command, that was built up over years, and armed and trained “to the NATO standard” and hysterically indoctrinated against Russia, for an entire generation, has been devastated in a month, why would Poland, or Romania do better? Why would a brigade of Americans in Poland do any better ? And they are going to threaten Russia with Moldavia ?…..I think this will prove to be the usual posturing of a waning power who continues to talk a lot tougher than they can back up..NATO can arrange 007 sabotage missions , or stage a terrorist attack and when this doesn’t bring down the country, what can they do? NONE of the core NATO countries are prepared to go to war in Ukraine with their own assets..If they were they would have been there already.Even so, Russias greatest danger AS ALWYAS is the danger of traitors in high places.When was it not so ? but i haven’t seen anything to suggest that Russia is not taking this with complete seriousness. This US is in way over its head. Russia has devoured empires before
The reason the uS is strong on propaganda and Media control
and Russia is not about Media- it is because Russia focuses on the war / strategy / tactics / resources
The uSA and the concept of NATO has been a joke in Afghanistan / Iraq / Syria
now Ukraine since the cauldron of 2014 -15 – where Russia won and went to Minsk Agreement instead – – a MISTAKE !
In the time of Minsk agreement, Russia wasn’t ready for cripling sanctions that would follow. Had not nearly enough Kinzhals, and Zirkons to repel Carrier battle groups. No worked out partnership with China. No SWIFT alternatives. It was western MISTAKE that they didn’t attack Russia when they still had some chance.
As before, it seams Anglos has no will to die for their goals, but to instigate the other bastards die for theirs. Luckily, in 2015. They ran out of bastards.
At the time of teh Minsk agreement Russia was still in trust that Germany and France would play true and solve the issue as they stated. It was a test. You can only judge someone by them deads…
Are you genuinely ignoring the facts of how much money the Americans have spent fortifying the areas on the contact line and how many adversrial troops are stationed there? How fast do you want them to murder those poor 150,000 bastards?
The Americans prefer a long drawn-out campaign that will last – at least – unto the upcoming elections.
The Russians could either be real stupid and try to enter the trenches and defeat their cousins hand-to-hand or they can slowly and methodically cut Ukraines supply lines and bomb them into submission.
The Russians will do the smart thing for Russia in the long term, not like the short-term dumbasses here in the US.
Money doesn’t translate to success. See: F-35 (among other big $$ boondoggles).
“Ukraine” is running out of available “Ukrainian” fighters. As someone posted over on MOA (and hat tip to the person), Ukraine started out with an air force, a LOT of weapons and a LOT of troops and now it no longer has an air force, its troop numbers as well as available weapons are significantly reduced; there’s next to no chance that anything being pumped-in is going to equal the capabilities that the Ukrainians had to start with, in which case there’s next to zero chance of this altering the outcome. [definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over hoping for different results]
The military victory is already a done deal: I figure it was accomplished within the first few days as the Russians got the jump, and did so with a superior plan. US/NATO was fixated on storming the Donbass and overpowering Russian troops coming across the border.
For the US/West/NATO it has no become about distracting its citizens from their collapsing countries. They’re grinding down their own populations, establishing full control over discourse (i.e. censorship).
8+ years of building hardened bunkers and defensive positions?
This is not a video game, with 10 minute limit. It’s real war, ie no timetable, until objectives have been met. Why are you in a hurry?
That’s what I’ve been wondering… A lot of folks mention how Russia should have completely overrun Ukraine by now, that they [the Russians] *must* be losing because it is taking longer than a week or two. Ridiculous “analysis”, of course.
I’ve realized that people who tend to run the mill with the ‘why in the damn world is Russia so slow on the battle field! its been over 2months and they can’t occupy anything!’
This ‘thought’ process is mainly contrived from western influence, and its way of thinking and rationing.
It is evident that people are constantly fed lies, upon lies that real ‘REASONING’ is no longer a faction.
Than they come to the Saker expecting an explanation that they still can’t comprehend and keep asking the same questions that the ‘western’ shit media keeps spewing out.
The main reason is our perception of how fast battles should be resolved. It is hugely biased by Hollywood physics and time management, not by real world. Movies that follows real life litteraly wouldn’t sell. It would be boring beyond belief.
Entrenched infantry is notoriously tough to crack. Remember WW1 trench war. It dragged for years. It is possible to storm defenders, but only if commanding officers are ready to send to certain death 5 or 10 times more soldiers than defender has. That is good movie script material, though. Not so, if you are conscript happen to be in a first wave of attack.
OR you can encircle and wait couple of months till defenders food supply start to rot. Fuel to run out. Weapons degrade and/or malfunction. Underwear turns yellow/brown. Diseases spread trough wet, muddy bunkers. Mentaly weak start to crack and shoot themselves or others.
Which scenario would you chose?
Sim, Blackring, isso o que vc diz é a mais pura verdade e está intimamente ligado a percepção que as pessoas têm da realidade e que é formatada pela narrativa de hollywood.
Conheço pessoas adultas que se dizem de esquerda, progressistas, mas que denominam certos filmes de “parados ou lentos” se eles não estiverem dentro daquele padrão de frenesi histérico dos tais filmes de “ação” que caracterizam a quase da totalidade do lixo cultural produzido nos eua.
Aí, mais uma vez, entramos na questão da importância da produção de narrativas e do poder que elas dão a quem as produz. Esse é um tema para o qual seguidamente chamo a atenção nos meus comentários.
Me parece que a guerra na ucrânia está demonstrando como nunca antes na história a importância de construir capacidadedes para furar o bloqueio midiático que o ocidente ergueu através de sua mídia venal.
Yes, Blackring, what you say is the purest truth and is closely linked to the perception that people have of reality and which is shaped by the hollywood narrative.
I know adult people who say they are left-wing, progressive, but who call certain films “still or slow” if they are not within that pattern of hysterical frenzy of such “action” films that characterize almost all of the cultural garbage produced in the United States. USA.
There, once again, we enter the question of the importance of the production of narratives and the power they give to those who produce them. This is a topic to which I often draw attention in my comments.
It seems to me that the war in Ukraine is demonstrating as never before in history the importance of building capacities to break the media blockade that the West has erected through its venal media.
If RF eliminate 100’s of Ukrops every day and associated military hardware with minimal loses, then RF doesn’t need to anything else for next 100 or 1000 days. No offensive is needed. Ukraine has army of some 250,000 men. Say, 500/day, makes 500 days down to zero. Russia does not need to to go on the hunt yet. Just keep doing whatever they are doing now. As long as Ukraine keep sending reinforcement into meat grinder then that works for Russia
The progress of grinding is not linear. It is exponential due to compound effects of many factors that I mentioned in earlier post. Very soon number of casualties will be in thousands per day, but it never will be in tens of thousands, because of mass surrendering.
There will be couple of tougher spots with less than hundred most stubborn defenders. They will be surrounded and waited out.
As of the rest of Ukraine, their fighting spirit and physical ability will be put to the stress test after complete destruction of main forces. Remember what happened after Delbatsevo and Ilovaisk? Total chaos. Small army of Lugansk and Donetsk had open way to Kiev and beyond. Of course, they wouldn’t be able to hold it, so it ended in Minsk agreements.
And now, Russia is involved. What do you think will happen this time?
Go slow and your industry has enough time to be capable to replace the ammunition used up. You might just need it for the real match.
“how are they still managing to defend so well against RF that they are barely advancing anywhere along the front?”
Explained by Rybar, translated by RwA:
“Quite often we encounter ordinary people’s misunderstanding of what is happening on the frontlines. In some ways this is the fault of television experts, who for eight years have been spreading hurrah-patriotism about “worthless Ukrainians”. In some ways it is the banal lack of understanding of the specifics of military operations in the region. ”
See https://t.me/RWApodcast/160 and the following two messages.
IMHO this Sitrep is describing Russian strategy not NATO/Ukraine strategy. Just as a gap was left in the Donbass cauldron, which drew in more Ukie forces and equipment, which was then destroyed, so the same is happening in the West with NATO. Its a trap. The bigger the concentrations the better the missile targets will be – and Russia will not run out of missiles. I clearly remember 1-2 years ago Putin decreeing that industrial factories must be dual use and able to switch over to military production as required. And further, so far Russia has committed approx 10% of its armed forces.
Interesting plans from the fascists.
They should heed the wise words of Mike Tyson “everybody got a plan until they get punched in the face!”
Especially when the fascists are American.
But hey ho what do these psychopaths do when their plan A fails? They double down on plan A. Printing money never bolstered the US economy so printing even more is the solution. Then again Main Street didn’t see much of a trickle down of that fake money (about 15%) as Bush, Obama and Trump bailed out the 1%.
Can’t Fix Stupid!
What do the Euro aristocracy talk about over their 7 course lunches and 9 course dinners? Well with all that eating and drinking there’s not a lot of time for discussion.
Was reading that the UK Home Office admits to delaying visa, entry permits for fleeing Ukrainians while Ukrainian elites are fast-tracked in minutes & hours. When will the penny drop?
It all reminds me of another desperate regime: redeployment to the impregnable West Wall / Siegfried Line, the Great Redoubt in the Alps, the counterstroke in the Ardennes and the arrival of the new Wonder Weapons (V1, V2s) etc.
The Lend Lease arrangement is the most worrisome and nutty. That no one thought to do this with South Korea, South Vietnam, Kuwait and Iraq (to expel ISIS) tells you how nutty it is. And as it is just a “legalistic fig leaf” to introduce “budget neutral” US arms to the conflict, what will happen when China passes a similar piece of legislation and 30 divisions of Chinese “volunteers” end up on the banks of the Dnieper?
The United States/West has lost its mind and isn’t capable of leading the world into the 21st Century. IMHO
We did not lose our minds.
We were infiltrated and our institutions subverted by hostile forces seeking our destruction.
Any nation they didn’t covertly seize they overtly seized using our own armies.
Weep for us for we are held prisoner and our children’s minds poisoned
Old Chinese Proverb – A man with no shoes must weep for a man with no feet.
Thank you again for the very insightful Sitrep. I did see the women relatives in Khust have drawn their own conclusions about the war. Very telling that they are from Western Ukraine. If planes are sent to Ukraine, will they not be in range of the S-400? It seems like there will be few airfields left to try and land in Western Ukraine. I suspect once the Donbass is liberated, the rest of Eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper river will also fall. Won’t the Dnieper river make an excellent natural barrier to any Western Ukrainian tanks etc. that are able to move east? The only weak spot is the South of Ukraine. Where would be the best place to create a new border in South Ukraine that puts Russia in the strongest position?
Re the F16s: any newly trained the pilots will be next to useless as a crash course is not enough to learn the complex systems and tactics.
But of course they may not be trainee Ukie pilots but instead veteran US pilots. They still won’t be a match for the Russian pilots and equipment, but at the same time they will be no easy pushover.
My thoughts exactly. From what I understand the F16 is a very complex and highly technical fighter and requires superb skills.
My guess is the US and NATO will have American pilots at the controls.
Question : If so does that not make them belligerents? If they are Active duty USAF fliers I would think so. Otherwise they are considered mercenaries?
From someone having flown it in simulators:
The F16 is not “hard to fly”. It’s the exact opposite: Easy to fly. HOWEVER: As the (first?) “electric jet”, it’s stockfull of fancy modern gear and computers, but without the usability enhancements of more recent jets. So in other words: Flying the F16 is easy. Managing the computer systems and using them effectively requires experience, since this thing was not designed in the age of “user-friendlyness”.
Any American pilot shot down over Russian forces is a mercenary. They should be tried by military court, taken out back and shot. Put it up on youtube for all the brave pilots in the west to see.
I too don’t see how Ukrainian lads can successfully pilot F-16’s in combat, with the right stuff, crash course or not. Ergo, they will be piloted by Americans, or Israelis, etc, pretending to be Ukrainians. Russia will want bodies for proof.
How good is fly by wire in combat?
It’s hard to believe F-16’s will fly sorties out of Ukrainian airfields. Who will maintain them? How can they hide? Flying sorties out of Poland, Romania, or Slovakia would tempt fate.
Pity the poor F-16 pilots who will be on the receiving end of Russia’s advanced anti-aircraft and electronic weaponry. They have never been confronted by anything that even approaches it.
This conflict have been in the works for years. It would be surprising if there is not Ukie pilots with years of F-16 experience. It’s not like they came up with this idea a few days ago.
This is just more Western propaganda designed for western consumption, as inflation and shortages kick in. They might hope that somehow they might scare Russia, but stealing Russia’s money and sanctions are not working, or maybe some hope they are.
USA/ NATO will never attack Russia because they will lose. They explicitly said it several times. Russia’s vastly superior air force has not really been deployed. Most of Ukraine s air force has been taken out by surface to air missiles. A sidebar: years ago I saw a video of a f-16 behind a Russian Mig and a second later the Mig was behind the f-16. The Chinese would never underestimate Russia’s air superiority, but told America at least twice to their never ending threats: ” meet us in the sky”!.
Some can hope and some can dream, but the facts on the ground speak for themselves. Asia who pays much more for Russian gas than Europe is ready to buy it all, in addition to everything else.
Russia can stop all energy, minerals, agriculture and everything else to the west, and still has that card to play. It is springtime here in Canada, like in the Ukraine and the ground still soft. Some say that tanks and other heavy armoury is needed for the Donbass cleansing, but what’s the rush? Ruble has stabilized, food is aplenty, a billion made everyday and others lining up to buy all things Russian and vice- versus.
Everyday the West comes up with something knew to tell you that they are winning. The same nonsense in their endless trips around the world trying to bully countries to join their ” international community”.
I believe that they are drawing up plans for the dismemberment of west Ukraine for all the east will be surely be freed. Poland, Hungary getting parts as per Russia’s take on the situation. I think that them bombing the living hell out of kviv and Lvov is a better plan, and leave the humbled west to sort out.
“Where would be the best place to create a new border in South Ukraine that puts Russia in the strongest position?”
On the western shores of Britain LOL.
A straight line from the northern tip of Moldova north to the border with Belarus. Russia gets the bit to the right. Europe can fight over the bit to the left. The US gets nothing.
River of Elbe was and should be again the NATO borders
If this insanity goes Nuclear, it will condemn humanity (for want of a better term)
for hundreds of years without food and non-life-supporting cold.
Gates will have no need to block the Sun; we shall not naturally see it again for many generations.
All the above is supported by written history; conveniently ignored by ‘elite leadership’ and their ‘dogs of war’…
As Hudson says, this is a cull of the whole of humanity by the monied of the Schwab Davos Cult led (again) by the Bolsheviks cum Trotskyites. (my interpretation and words)
I add: Far worse is intended by ‘leadership’ to be spread widely across the face of the planet; to be imposed on ALL Life in general.
Such is the level of ‘intelligence’ of those that you adore as your superior leaders.
So be it.
It is clear: there is no intelligent Life on the Planet Earth.
Nuke? No Nuke for EU NATO, it is the cost that Humanity cannot afford, esp. for Zone B, and I do not think Mr. Putin and his Generals would be that desperate to resort to that last option. But if NATO truly wanted annihilation, well Economy Annihilation will surely trap them to death first, it is on its way anyway.
Low morale among the Ukrainian armed forces is a recurring phenomenon. The following is from an article published earlier this month by Jacques Baud:
“In fact, the army was undermined by the corruption of its cadres and no longer enjoyed the support of the population. According to a British Home Office report, in the March/April 2014 recall of reservists, 70 percent did not show up for the first session, 80 percent for the second, 90 percent for the third, and 95 percent for the fourth. In October/November 2017, 70% of conscripts did not show up for the “Fall 2017” recall campaign. This is not counting suicides and desertions (often over to the autonomists), which reached up to 30 percent of the workforce in the ATO area. Young Ukrainians refused to go and fight in the Donbass and preferred emigration, which also explains, at least partially, the demographic deficit of the country.”
The following paragraph in the same article describes how Ukraine turned to NATO for help — and so what we see today is perhaps history repeating itself.
The Ukies will be consumed and debilitated by their extreme hatred of the Russians, which is the normal human response. While the Russians are driven by a love for the Motherland, freedom and justice. How long can the hate-inspired Ukies keep going before they are demoralised into dust?
I am amazed how the West keep changing the narrative to suit the new situation!
I have to keep them in the loop ! Ukraine is on the Russian border ; four events occurred in Ukraine of significance to the Russians, the passage of the French during the French expansion; the Crimean war; the passage of the Germans in the first world war and the passage of the Germans in the second world war !
That will be no more passages!
You forgot the Swedish empire.
Question is, is NATO bluffing about its planned interventions, and what will Russia do to counter it? If this is indeed really being planned, Russia needs to act soon, I’d say within the next month, tops.
Another thing that the NATO planners are ignoring, is will the ukrainian population tolerate a long war? If people are already getting restless, then this does not bode well for ukronazi forces. Plus, their manpower will simply dwindle down to virtually nothing. And then what? Will the Polish army be thrown at Russia, without a NATO mandate, of course?
Seems like the ukies and their western help looks great only on paper.
…..Will the Polish army be thrown at Russia, without a NATO mandate, ?….
Yes – and the Poles are naive enough to be used as cannon fodder by Washington.
As has already been proven, pushing weapons into Ukraine is doing nothing (except providing Russia’s military with more target practice).
The ONLY additive would be ground forces.
1) Where are they going to come from?
2) How are they going to enter Ukraine?
3) How are they going to arrive in areas where Russia has complete control?
As to #1: We can only guess that Polish troops would be first. Are the others going to enter when they see hordes of Poles slaughtered in their tracks? NONE of them have reasons to have as much skin in the game as Russia does. AND, the hometown crowds, other than Russia’s, don’t have the convictions (only fantasies) necessary to keep sending bodies.
For #2: Continue to follow through Poland, which will have that region totally locked-in by Russia (full targeting). I don’t think there’s any other meaningful/strategic areas.
#3 is running straight into the teeth of Russian forces which have a vastly superior supply line.
I’d offer that the US/West/NATO is going to challenge Russia at its borders elsewhere in an attempt to thin Russia’s forces out. Finland? I think that Russia went light (and is trying to stay on the light side) with this possible angle in mind. The US/West/NATO has NOT encountered any military opponent even remotely close to that of Russia. Defending its homelands means that Russia can fight from home; most all others will be fighting away from home and therefore could not have the same sense of dedication.
I believe that it’s been shown time and time again in war gaming exercises that the US/West/NATO cannot win a conventional war waged against Russia. And IF it started to look a bit too tough for Russia there’s going to be a MASSIVE amount of support available from elsewhere: bank on China and likely Iran <- that would be enough, but there's possibly India as well.
From the report we have this –
“From what is known, a total contingent of 50,000 to 100,000 people can be inferred. This includes units deployed by Poland, and the American contingent, and units of various NATO countries deployed in the framework of exercises in the Baltic states. There is also information about a serious Romanian group in the Moldovan direction. Just as we wrote earlier, combat aircraft are also being transferred to Europe. In the shortest possible time, the size of the NATO contingent can be doubled.”
Then we have this –
“A strike force of NATO countries near the borders of Ukraine and Belarus – what is it for? Is it really about an ordinary peacekeeping mission?”
“NATO’s ultimate strategy on this issue is currently unclear.”
Unclear to who? The collective west openly admit Ukraine is mere cannon fodder and of no real interest to them. The huge and increasing military build up is not there for them.
So what could be it’s purpose.? A banal and harmless military exercise ? I don’t think so.
You mean they can’t guess? Really?
Yes, the Plan is to further subjugate Europe, the satanic decaying Empire’s last frontier. Lose this and the party’s/gorging’s over. Their last few satellites in the M-E, Asia and South America are in deep negotiations with China-Russia. Iran-Saudi detente will scupper future funding for ‘moderate’ rebels, bring an end to the Yemeni genocide. US-Israeli YINON plan is kaput, Syria will be cleansed of uninvited foreign filth. $$$$$$$$$$$$ trade is falling faster than an Amsterdam hooker’s g-string.
So the plan to sink European economies to sell the very same countries your energy & goods that they can’t afford (at jacked-up prices ) is another example of failed logic.
OK I’ll take the bait and hazard a guess into the psyche of the psychopath – The Chaos Theory
If we can’t run your country then no one will.
. . . . and so, if F-16’s begin appearing (and falling out of the sky ) in Western Ukraine, will this be Russia’s cue for strikes on NATO assets in Poland, Romania and other stooge vassals bordering Ukraine?
The main command centre in Lvov, from where everything is US-NATO coordinated, why has it not been levelled to the ground? Huge Negative IMO showing weakness.
I should state for the record that since then, a prominent semi official Ukr channel has stated that the F-16 training thing is a fake rumor and that there has been “no official announcement” from Ukraine about such training taking place. But with that said, I don’t think it’s something they would necessarily “officially announce” and so I think that there’s still a chance that such training could be taking place.
There is one thing that didn’t add up. Why NOW? There was plenty of time (decade) to train Ukie pilots in any number of NATO countries.
It is obvious that US wants to deplete Eastern European countries of exSoviet weaponry, so it can sell them their own military surpluses.
They want to go to war not only for free, but at profit? Against Russia??
There is no free war. Never has been, never will be. So, either Anglos never ment to go to War for real, or they are about to learn hard lessons.
I doubt Anglos are that stupid. Their realistic goal is to contain Russia by war of attrition. There are few more steps to go before they step in personally. Namely, Poland can easily be instigated to provoke Russia into another war. In the meantime, Germany and Japan will be rearmed and brainwashed in the same manner like in 1930ies. The plan is quite obvious, as is the mindset of the authors. They still live in first half of 20th century. Still believe Russia (and China) are countries struggling to catch up with the rest of the world.
Look up this Arestovich guy. Textbook example of NGO drone. His “prediction” is an old RAND brainstorm that he read somewhere and blogged as his own. He is inserted into Zelenskys inner circle, not chosen. One more level of control over Ukrainian “government”. Remember Theodor Gilbert Morel, Hitler’s personal physician? That type of guy. Essential ingredient in every Anglos meddling-soup.
May be a negative, but if Russia has people on the inside there, moles, eavesdropping equipment, cracked their codes……it may be in Russia’s best interest to let it lie…..no matter how distasteful it appears.
The Russians are probably listening in on the dopy retards and getting all sorts of juicy tidbits.
“The main command centre in Lvov, from where everything is US-NATO coordinated, why has it not been levelled to the ground? Huge Negative IMO showing weakness”
Maybe. Maybe not. If Russia can, er, “listen in” they get advance info to act on.
Or maybe there are significant more planners en route & Russia is waiting for the most efficient moment to wipe them out in a single blow.
Ukranazies eat UKroNazies
Glad I am vegan
I am starting to want to escape this evil empire of lies and chaos, and relearn Russian….
America ain’t got the freedoms that matter here, not for me….
I wish America will stop war on Russia via Hato and UK-raine
UK gave zelensky u k citizenship but his parents refused….fancy that
Ukraine is part of Russia, as are many of these other areas Hato has claimed…. falsely, to be u s extensions….via troops and money .
I see the u s will lose all credibility, thank God
I really hope that the reported release of a small number of civilians from Azovstal signifies the end of the Azovstal horror.
My guess is that Ukraine finally saw the futility of the situation and asked the UN to help negotiate the logistics of the surrender.
Not sure what to make of those MSM “Potential Response If Putin Uses Nukes” items. Apart from increased CIA involvement, they seem to exclude any actual US response and to be based largely on assumed support from Japan, India and Israel. The lack of any mention at all of even possibly responding to nukes with nukes seems like a glaring omission, deliberate or not.
Yeah, I doubt Russia fears any of those fangless responses to say the least
Many Twitter links don’t work or are censored. But thanks for compiling all your sitreps!!
Yes. F… all those Yizrayell social media Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Telegram crap.
In 2014/2015 there were also protests in Western Ukraine against the forced recruitement.
As always – excellent recap. You raise some very interesting questions. Here are a few of mine:
1) Russia appears to have committed only 10% of its available military to the SOP. (If this is not accurate, please indicate what you think the commitment is). Assuming its 10% and assuming Poland intends to enter Ukrainian territory with a “peacekeeping” force, why doesn’t Russia mobilize forces in Western Belarus and enter from the north? This would accomplish three things: First, it would completely bypass the Ukrainian forces in Kiev, Mykolaiv and Odessa as the thrust would come from the north west and place Russian forces in a great position to take Lviv. Second, from this position some of its forces could also move south to outflank the forces in Mykolaiv and Odessa and protect Transnistria. And third, cutoff any Polish “peacekeeping” force from entering Ukraine.
2) I am curious about a Polish move into Ukraine. If this were to happen, how would Ukrainians feel? It is my understanding that Ukrainian and the Polish do not like each other and that Poland is extremely anti-Nazi as well. And it is therefore unlikely that Ukraine would welcome such a move. Would Ukraine fight Poland forces?
3) Some view a Polish move into Ukraine as a positive. Yuri Podolyaka in a video interview on the Saker blog said Russia should welcome such a move since it has no need of West Ukraine. To me, this is a problem. Ukraine cannot be left to reconstitute on the West into, as you suggest, a NATO force with modern NATO weapons. Especially when Russia has the means to prevent this from happening. Thoughts?
4) There has been some discussion of competing claims to West Ukraine. It appears Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania may also want to divvy up parts of this territory. Is there a chance of this? Would this possibly bring clashes with Poland if all four were to enter? We know that NATO “allies” are not beyond clashing (I’m looking at you Turkey and Greece). So is this possible?
Thanks for all of your insight and on-going Sit-Reps. I do think it positive that Mariupol is surrendering. I think the idea of Ukraine moving the goalposts by saying they plan to reinforce their West flank is amusing. To my way of thinking, there is simply not enough time. Should Russia overrun the Donbass forces and do what I suggest above, that is, open a third front from the northwest (the two other fronts are the Donbass and Mykolaiv), I see Kiev isolated and surrounded. The siege of Kiev – perhaps the ghost of Mussorgsky can write an orchestra piece….
1. it IS about 10% BUT that’s a little misleading because to access that remaining 90% is not really possible without a major escalation / mobilization or declaration of war that would allow conscript use as Russian forces are about 65/35 in terms of contract/conscripts (only the contracts are being used right now in Ukraine, and only a fraction of them). To tap full forces would require a major POLITICAL escalation that is not as easy as snapping a finger. It’s a gradual conditioning of the public to the necessity of this in order to gain public consensus, and it may happen eventually.
2. this I’m honestly not sure about either and am as curious as you how exactly would this be received. I presume it all depends on Poland’s intent. if they enter under some ostensible guise of protecting refugees or something is different than entering to say “well your state is collapsing anyway and we want our rightful slice of it”. I can only assume it would be the Erdogan/Idlib method which is the former of the 2 listed. Enter under the guise and then slowly convert the territory to Polish infrastructure etc until it becomes de facto Polish (same as Israel and Golan heights or West Bank, etc, etc)
3. I fully agree and have stated this in past sitrep. Russia has NEVER planned to take western Ukraine and would never want to take it. Those are not traditionally Russian lands with ethnic Russians. Russia only wants the southern belt towards Odessa and Donbass. The rest it would have liked to keep as Ukrainian rump state but led by a pro-Russian leader that Russia would have installed in the place of Monica Zelensky. If Poland however were to take only their historical Galician lands in the west then I don’t see how that is any problem to Russia as that would not really interfere in any way with Russia’s plans as long as Russia still got to do their regime change for the new rump state which would extend from Kiev to the new Polish Galicia.
4. this is too complicated to answer as it would heavily depend on some of the calculus of what happens in the next couple months, it’s pretty much impossible to predict if you ask me and most of those countries will likely be playing it by ear and responding opportunistically as they see fit. I wouldn’t mind hearing other’s opinions on this matter myself.
I find this entire discussion to be karmatic in the literal sense. The Ukrainians turned over their foreign policy to the West and so any discussion of the future of the Ukrainian state no longer includes the Ukrainians themselves.
This disposition of the Ukrainian state will take a generation to play out, but I believe ultimately the entirety of the Ukrainian state – minus Galacia – will be part of the Russian Federation. When Poland takes Galacia, Belarus will take Vałyń and the ensuring ruckus will lead to its accession into the Russian Federation. The Rusyns of Transcarpathia will probably end up with Slovakia. These areas (except perhaps Transcarpathia) will be troubled for a generation or longer. Hungary is too smart to get involved with any of this and will renouce any territorial claims, while Romania is facing its own disintegration scenerio and will be too preoccupied with that to get involved.
It’s not likely the neighboring countries will divvy up rump Ukraine officially. I can see a scenario where Z “invites” them and each is assigned an occupation zone. Officially the country remains intact. Z recognizes everybody’s occupation zone except Russia’s.
The West will approach this scenario with great caution. However, it’s the only scenario I see allowing foreign troops on Ukraine soil without a prior declaration of war.
The risk is Russia attacks the occupiers within Ukraine and says, “This is not a NATO mission so don’t give me that Article 5 stuff.” If I were advising the West I would advise against believing Putin is bluffing about demilitarization.
The exact future form or shape of Western Ukraine is immaterial for as long as it is demilitarized forever and policed by Mr Calibre and Khinzel.
//Russia has NEVER planned to take western Ukraine and would never want to take it. Those are not traditionally Russian lands with ethnic Russians. Russia only wants the southern belt towards Odessa and Donbass. //
If Russia allows that, it means their goals of demilitarization and denazification will not be achieved. NATO keeps arming the Ukrainian fascists and if Russia doesn’t take them down, those Nazis will continue to harass Russia but also under the direct protection of NATO.
I cannot explain it either but can only speculate that it comes down to not enough troops. I think Russia needs mobilization and they better do it sooner rather later. Also, it is only the Izium axis that shows any movement at all. Ideally, you would want to attack from two or three fronts.
I find the idea that Russia is going to stand around twittling their thumbs while the US brings in Abrams Tanks, F16’s, Apache, etc. quite disturbing. The author writes as if a given that this will occur. I am forced to ask myself if Russia would object to anything coming into Ukraine? Would they allow Nuclear Weapons? Seems like they would.
Russia is not fighting like this is a war. Too much complacency. My hope is that Ukraine hits Moscow with ballistic missiles on the May 9th parade. As painful and as humiliating this would be, it would be an event were we could finally a proper military response.
Maybe it is not a war but theater of the “Great Reset” paid for by the populace, not the least in lost lives.
Why this patience in 8 years if not staged to have an excuse in the year of the great reset to take down the whole West. For me it stinks at a long range. This mix of real and fake, all parties are complicit. Russia’s relaxed attitude looks like they know everything beforehand.
My one cent
“Russia is not fighting like this is a war.”
They’re blasting the rail-heads, the very electricity that drives trains. Out West. There are some 200 or 300 diesel trains, but there’s no fuel. Forget air. There’s no other avenue to deliver weapons. NATO can’t get stuff in. What more evidence do you need? Any support outside the borders that comes in involves NATO and they don’t really want THAT. We’re going to see pretty quickly.
Russia allowed it’s financial reserves to be stolen knowing war was coming. Russia sells energy to the enemy flooding weapons and massing mercenaries in Ukraint. Russia doesn’t hit power plants in West Ukraint giving comfort and convenience to enemy not forcing a refugee crisis for the EU to deal with. Russia fights war without enough troops to be decisive feeding enemy propaganda. Russia is it’s own worst enemy.
Lots of questions there, but what is certain is that a Sitrep for the economy and society is needed. Not Soloviev-style talk, but actual talk from folks involved in trying to deal with losing access to so many tools and products. Production today is not like many decades ago. Even then, industrial complexes were the way to go, but now losing one key part means the whole car or gas project or whatever freezes. Владимир Боглаев is often interviewed at the Студия Рубеж channel and he is deeply involved at a fairly high level in production in Belorussia and Russia, as well as meeting with policy makers in both countries. He is not a total pessimist as things have finally started moving in Russia in recent days.
After all, this whole war was a war of choice by the West for political goals. The kind of future order they want, a depopulated one, with high tech for the golden million, and techno-slavery for the masses. The clowns on TV only have the power to steal and get their relatives out of criminal cases. The West is like the Ukraine now. But there are people who actually have goals and various plans, whether for famines, pandemics, climate catastrophes, or mass infertility. The people who attend these things usually cannot or will not talk, but there are some exceptions. A founder of Sun Microsystems was invited to a couple of such meetings decades ago and he was very frightened and wrote an article called something like Does the Future Need Us? His view was that the planners will have little need for farmers, soldiers, truckers, policemen, and such by, say, 2030. And thus massive depopulation is baked in the cake.
🇷🇺🇺🇸⚡️Volodin stated that up to $500 billion worth of Western assets were blocked on the territory of the Russian Federation, which counterbalances the $300 billion of Russian reserves blocked in the West.
In the event of the confiscation of the property of Russian oligarchs in the West, Russia will begin to confiscate the property of Western businesses in Russia.
‘And finally, reports now indicate that the British expect Putin to formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9th and begin mass mobilization.’
Will Russia mobilize? Has Putin been waiting for public sentiment to rise to the level to support this? What about a partial mobilization? Would this be triggered by specific acitons on the actions of NATO?
I don’t know for definite what will happen but the one point where you hit the nail on the head is that IF any sort of mobilization occurs, it is only by way of a gradual building of public consensus. Most commentators here don’t quite understand how the process works and it’s not something you just announce from the onset unless you want to commit political suicide and be overthrown in a coup. Putin has brilliantly built public consensus slowly and now the public fervor is high enough that he could foreseeably announce it in the near future without incurring massive domestic political problems
The notion of grabbing kids from their ‘fourth year of military school” and shipping them out to ‘learn’ how to fly F-16s seems to me impossible. I spent 6 years in Naval Air in the age of the F-14 Tomcat and you don’t just hop in and take off. It takes a couple of years to learn to fly props let alone jets, then advance to the F-16 another year and another year to become proficient enough to fly in combat. And that’s for college grads (and 95% never make it through to fighters anyway). Most F-16 pilots have minors in aviation engineering, Americans anyway. What do those kids have? Then, you’ll have non-stealthy, single-engine jets in the air with crappy pilots that will be easy meat for S-300/400/500 air defense not to mention GOOD, real Russian pilots gunning for the F-16s. Also, if that activity begins, Russian will see it and just finish off every airport and runway in W. Ukraine. Of course, F-16s flying in from over the border invites those bases to be attacked by Russian forces.
See how complex? Russia simply isn’t going to allow anything in from the NATO countries. Also, NATO populations are going to call for a halt when they see all the dough spent for nothing. Lend/Lease? Really! Ukraine ceases to exist as an economic entity as we sit and speak. Who do they think is to pay them back?
You folks here have forgotten more than I will ever know about this stuff and so I ask, am I an idiot or are my concerns as to the complexities in play in the real world? If Russia destroys whatever comes in it is NATO that runs out of money/equipment/people, not Russia.
To NV and Andrei, thanks and be well. I worry the new DHS agency against “disinformation” is going to disappear us here, at Unz, Martyanov, Larry and many others. I saw hearings yesterday that were enraging, how routine those bastards in Congressional hearings consider all that. Again, thanks!
I mostly agree with you which is why either the F-16 thing is fake and they’ll just give them more Mig29’s or they plan to put Romanian/NATO pilots into the planes with fake Ukrainian passports.
And yes I fully agree with your concerns which is one of the reasons Russia’s ‘nonchalance’ might be surprising to some people is because Russia is not too worried about many of these hollow and unrealistic threats from the west. 10 or 20 F-16’s won’t do much against hundreds of Russian Su-35’s, Su-27’s, etc, anyway
Of course it will not be Ukrainian Pilots, it will be American/NATO pilots. Ukraine will claim they have been drafted into their army like they are trying to do with the mercenaries.
I just think it is big mistake to take out the convoys and not take out the railways coming in from Poland. They only have to do it once, and I bet the arms supplies stop or is dramatically scaled back.
I think they are worried, but only because they know they’re the only adults in the room.
Realistically, this war is draining Russian capabilities, we can disagree with the twitter morons on the rate this is happening, but the campaign so far has been a major effort by the Russian military. If NATO pushes too far, Russia may be forced to go nuclear, something they naturally don’t want to do. But it will be because NATO pushed them into an existential dilemma.
The second any NATO regulars set foot on Ukrainian or Moldovan territory, full mobilisation of Belarus and Russia will be declared. That step will be necessary to overcome Belarussian reluctance about the SMO. And yes, that will be a truly scary historical moment. I hope sanity prevails before then. Where are the neutral parties desperately backing mediation?
“Realistically, this war is draining Russian capabilities, we can disagree with the twitter morons on the rate this is happening, but the campaign so far has been a major effort by the Russian military.”
Bollocks! Have you learned nothing from here? A major effort with only 10% of their capabilities? LOL
Brutus Iscariot ” If NATO pushes too far, Russia may be forced to go nuclear, ” I’ve seen this often and I am afraid it’s nonsense. If Russia needs to escalate there are several steps before this. I believe a few conventional hypersonic missiles aimed at carefully chosen targets in the US and UK would be enough to wake up the idiots in charge. I hope to goodness it does not even come to this, but how however much they propangandize their populations, there is no way western Europeans are ready to sleep walk into world war.
Thanks, NV, I thought maybe I was hallucinating. I’m not really looking for validation (yeah, I am) but for Chrissake this is all insane. My impressions from the cold war aboard Nimitz (in VA-35, an A6 squadron) circa-1976/79-82 oughtn’t be valid today but they still are 40 years later. And for what? So Raytheon, Lockheed, Boeing and Grumman can make even more trillions. That’s the root of this shit if I may be profane. Money, Lend-Lease, contracts, mercs, ships, planes, there are so many avenues to their revenues. I went back to DC after the U.S. Navy (I grew up there) and was their phone guy for 30 years, helping, in my little way, to enabling this disaster. WelI, I thought it was Stars and Stripes. But it wasn’t. And this is the wages. It’s all money. As with all these wars from Vietnam to this shit right here, win, lose or draw, those fukkers make money. I’m starting to believe that’s all it is. For 40 years now. And my kids and grandkids are going to have to face it. And they don’t want to hear my side at all. How effective is American propaganda.
“So Raytheon, Lockheed, Boeing and Grumman can make even more trillions. ”
Well, that’s a big piece of the puzzle, isn’t it? Earlier this morning I just came across this article:
* Why Lockheed Martin Stock Is Gaining Altitude Today (Mar. 21 2022) *
“Lockheed Martin’s shares were in the doldrums prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with investors worried that new programs that could be catalysts for future growth were unlikely to materialize before 2023, at the earliest. That’s still largely the case, but for patient investors, there’s reason to like Lockheed Martin . . . The Ukraine conflict should indeed support higher defense spending in the U.S. and across NATO, and Lockheed helicopters, Javelin missiles, and other products seem likely to be a part of any future orders. The conflict has also opened new markets to Lockheed Martin’s flagship F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, with Germany coming on board as a customer in recent weeks.” *
These words: “The conflict has also opened new markets . . . ” — they say a lot, don’t they?
* From: https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/21/why-lockheed-martin-stock-is-gaining-altitude-toda/
I do not recognize my country anymore. Everything I was taught and believed has been a lie. My heart is broken.
The more I read and learn on sites such as this and those you mention, I cringe at what I did not know.
I am surrounded by people in the grip of mass formation psychosis…. Covid, Save Ukraine. etc
A pastor I know actually called the young American mercenary who was killed while fighting with Ukraine a hero.
I used to think that the Republicans were the good guys. No longer. They are a bunch of cowards and war mongers. J6, the DHS and the Lend Lease ( dated in Jan 2021 or earlier and sponsored by that weasel Coryn) and the continual sellout by vets like Crenshaw… make me sick.
I am truly ashamed of my country.
Do not despair. Things are going on the background rapidly. Ukraine was used for money laundering by congress. WEF, globalist, nwo,etc. Russia and Putin knocked it out. They knocked out hunter biden-DOD bioweapons labs.
The best stuff for updates in x22report.com watching the B updates. 6 nights a week. Covid and ukraine Zelensky hero crap is same mass psychosis propaganda. Some pastors are neoconservatives. Only about 20% of Republicans are not traitors. Hopefully the bad ones keep getting purged. Other hoid sources Clif High on rumble.com or bitchute.com and biolclandestine on telegram.
Americans owe Russia a great debt. Things are happening in America. It’s coming. The globalist plan was to murder everyone slowly by vaxxing them. They failed. The counterattack is coming.
@History Lass – I hear you.
One does not have to be American to feel this deep disillusionment. In retrospect, almost everything one has taken as face value to be true has been a lie. It is not a few bad apples. The tree itself is evil deep down to the roots. Most Americans live in profound manufactured ignorance. Lies are the very thumbing heart and blood of Empire.
Without the lies, Empire would turn to ash, like in the movies daylight does to vampires.
I am truly ashamed of my country.
Same here. Same with three out of four of my siblings (after me peppering them ).
A pastor I know actually called the young American mercenary who was killed while fighting with Ukraine a hero
Think about it, this merc could’ve killed Donbass/LDPR troops so you could tell this pastor that this American merc might’ve been killing Ukrainians defending their own land. Oh course this pastor would have a puzzled look on his face assuming that you lack the same expertise he’s gotten from Fox News.
I‘ve slowly, carefully turned a handful of my friends from parroting war mongering talking points to WHY DOESN‘T ZELENSKY DECLARE NEUTRALITY like Sweden ?
Asking people why is a Neutral Ukraine such a bad solution usually gets them slowly thinking, don’t throw everything at them all at once. Little gentle steps over the course of a a few weeks is usually enough to have them see the light
It’s even better when you consider they wouldn’t really have to be neutral – just declare neutrality but still be joined at the hip to the US.
I always wondered why they didn’t play along with the Minsk agreements until they got back control of the Donbass regions. After that it would have been straightforward to gradually re-nazify those regions.
The only answer to those questions seems to be they actually wanted a war. At least, the US wanted a war and the puppet regime in Ukraine was happy to go along with that.
Good response. I agree about gentle steps.
Have you heard of Budapest memorandum? Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons and memorandum prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine. I am sure your fiends were aware of that?
History Lass, you are not alone.
Lend-lease is predatory lending. Afterwards they take oil fields etc. to compensate. See “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man”.
“Also, NATO populations are going to call for a halt when they see all the dough spent for nothing. Lend/Lease? Really! Ukraine ceases to exist as an economic entity as we sit and speak. Who do they think is to pay them back?”
You underestimate these populations tolerance for wasteful spending. In the US, you simply tell everyone they will get a check for $1500, and they jump onboard whatever plan you are hatching.
The lend lease program isn’t going to cause problems politically in “the West” because the populations have been thoroughly indoctrinated to identify with “billionaires” and pirates.
With Russian central bank assets seized without any legalistic formulae causing not a bit of concern about the “rule of law,” those assets are ripe for plunder. Of course giving them to armament manufactors directly saves the lawyers getting their 30-50% and the time and effort of pretending due process.
“Lend lease” is clearly a propaganda term that doesn’t remotely parallel it’s WWII progenitor.
“am I an idiot or are my concerns as to the complexities in play in the real world?”
No, you are not. It all does not matter, does not need to make any sense, since it is theater.
Some issues are solved. Russians will be back in the fold of Russia, homicide in the East will get to a halt. In the meanwhile the great reset continues in the shade of all this.
Don’t try to tell me it is Russia against the rest, remember Russia is member of the “Club” WEF, IMF, UN. Look what their central bank does (crypto currency), look at their complicity in the Covid hoax, vaccines, 4th Industrial revolution. It is all the same. They only create false hope for the common man, and earn some fake money at the side, which comes from YOU.
If some evacuee families have a girl child wearing a pinafore, licking a lollipop, about 180 cm tall, 86 kg, and hairy, does the Red Cross take them away automatically, or will there be an opportunity to interview the child?
You mean like this guy https://twitter.com/apo_drednort1/status/1507243996040818695
If their dear leader has no problem dressing up like a tart why should they?….
Another great Sitrep, Nightvision! I think the Russian effort is best symbolized by Red Babushka and Ukraine best symbolized by this tank cannibal. I remember how disgusted I was when I read that and immediately posted it’s time to Avangard Kiev and send a strong message.
Anyway, a lot can happen.
There is a great video on Sputjik of four baby Russian Bears being rescued as they were about to be smuggled out to a circus.
I get the feeling that, by the time the promised Ukie “counteroffensive from the west” starts, it’ll literally be “from the West” – with the numbers they have left, there’ll be as many NATO troops as leftover Banderites if not more.
Needless to say, any engagement with regular NATO country forces would change everything. But that’s probably what the West wants at this point.
The same applies to Transnistria, by the way. If Romania attacks the Russian peacekeeper contingent there, that’ll be a NATO country attacking Russian troops who will fight in self-defense and give a clear-as-day casus belli. And they severely underestimate how things have changed since 2008. Back then, Russia had to bring an army to rescue its peacekeepers. This time the Romanians (and/or Ukies) might not have to wait so long and simply get obliterated by an all-out tactical rocket bombardment of the kind that is NOT being used against targets in Ukieland on account of intending to keep the place reasonably intact.
Thanks Nightvision for this broad sitrep!
The White West is in despair as Pepe Escobar said. Russia can’t win this war or accomplish her SMO goals. They will try everything they can to change the current real scenario in Ukraine. Financially, who is already earning wants to multiply their profits even further. They will put manpower through Western Ukraine, more Nato mercenaries rats. If they think will bleed Russia with any strategy to prolong this war, where Russia is an obstacle to the major confrontation with China, the recent advices of Putin, Lavrov, Zakharova (We do not advise to continue trying our patiente) and the visit of Chinese State Councilor and Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe to Tehran it’s a clue.
In fact, White West needs to be totally defeated and humiliated.
“The White West” ??
Escobar must not know of the intense anti-white propaganda constantly spilling from every facet of mainstream media in America (U.S.), and which has been ongoing for many years. ‘White people’ do not control MSM in America, and most International Neocons, who control its politics, do not consider themselves ‘white’.
Talk of ‘racism’ floods the media while that same media itself is used to promote a most virulent form. This is obvious, or should be.
Incredibly comprehensive strep – thanks!
Also, thank you.
I might add that the outpouring of US and European ammunition and armaments to Ukraine from the treaty partners – only to be destroyed – represents a substantially demilitarized NATO. Although not an immediate objective of the Special Military Operation, this result would not be objectionable to Russia. Perhaps when referring to the ‘long war’ the Pentagon is calculating how long it will take to restock their weapons, produce ammunition and build military cadres. Ukraine has – or had – the second biggest armed forces in Europe.
The well known Ukrainian lawyer Tatiana Montyan explained to us back in 2014 how the thieves in charge of Ukraine operate, namely without even to the sense to leave the sheep with enough to survive on to be fleeced again the next year. Every thief knows this, said Montyan, but not the current crop of oligarchs, functionaries, politicians and criminals. They destroy the golden goose, and they have destroyed the nationhood of Ukraine, she said.
So the kind of end-game plunder that has become common in the west – where thieves take more than is sustainable because they recognize there is no future and thus go for the maximum plunder in hopes to survive the coming end days – was already in evidence in the Ukraine of that time.
I don’t think the videos of Montyan interviewed on the street in a couple of short rants are still available on LiveLeak – one was called, “The oligarchs should have killed Yanukovich but they destroyed Ukraine”.
But ever since then I’ve watched Ukraine and seen the clear dynamic that is not always obvious – nothing in Ukraine makes sense if you try to parse it in terms of statecraft. Only when you parse it in terms of thievery does it make complete sense.
Zelensky, and Kolomoisky pulling his strings in the background, will bid up the resources thrown into Ukraine from the west as much as the fools in the west will go for – none of it is intended for battle unless the western controllers force it. All of it is intended to be stolen and sold on black markets. That’s how Ukraine operates.
In this particular time, I suspect Ukraine has a certain criminality in common with the White House, which will get its cut from the US largess. The moment I heard the number $33 billion it became clear that this includes the “Presidential retirement fund” (/sarc) – hence the high number.
What makes it even better is that the Russians will destroy part of the incoming materiel – the perfect scapegoat when it all goes missing.
But remember – we’re not watching statecraft or warfare from the Ukrainians involved in this western adventure (except from the hapless soldiers), we’re watching thievery, and nothing else.
As much as it grieved you to write this it grieves me to read it:
“nothing in Ukraine makes sense in terms of statecraft. Only in terms of thievery does it make complete sense.
“Zelensky, and Kolomoisky pulling his strings in the background, will bid up the resources thrown into Ukraine from the West as much as the fools in the West will go for – none of it is intended for battle. All of it is intended to be stolen and sold on black markets. That’s how Ukraine operates.
“I suspect Ukraine [regime in Kiev] has a certain criminality in common with the White House, which will get its cut from the US largess.
“we’re not watching statecraft or warfare from the Ukrainians involved in this Western adventure (except from the hapless soldiers)”
“Russian intel agency head Naryshkin, who issued the statement last time regarding Poland’s planned incursion has also now stated that, “plans to deploy a Polish “peacekeeping contingent” in the western part of Ukraine is not a version, but intelligence information obtained from several reliable sources, the Foreign Intelligence Service explained.”
I wrote a comment about this in this post:
“…and this is becoming increasingly common […] They don’t want any more war.”
Don’t tell it to ex-ambassador Michael McFaul. I heard him with my own ears say today on MSNBC that Ukraine “won the war” and that this is “the last battle.”
They had me believing this. It was like April Fools’ Day for me. I don’t even understand it.
“Russia’s Putin To Hand Over Keys To War While He Has Cancer Surgery: Report”
I have a simple question to ask: how will ukraine launch its summer offensive without fuel?
That’s actually a great question. It proves one of two things:
1. the entire idea is a complete propagandistic fraud meant to boost disastrously flagging morale amongst the AFU in the midst of complete collapse of their military
2. perhaps they have a secret weapon. Elon Musk “saved them” with Starlink after all, and perhaps Elon Musk will now be arming them with new battery powered Tesla tanks that don’t need gas
Elon Musk told me the new tanks can receive power directly from the satellite via Starlink, they don’t need any batteries at all. What is more, the tanks themselves can be beamed from one place to another. Elon Musk said so, therefore it is completely true.
When you say ‘fuel’ are you referring to hot air or bullshit, because Ukraine has got plenty of that.
@ Nightvision & His Highness
Hey fellows, please be kind! In this hour of serious concern I’m splitting my sides with laughter.
The Ukrainian clown & Co. have an insurpassable sense of humour: turning a tragedy into a comic opera.
. What I am really interested in is how Ukraine still manages to have any fuel left at all. Ukraine imported 70% of its fuel from Russia and Bearus before the war, the rest came fron Kremenchuk refinery which sourced its crude via Odessa. The refinery has been destroyed, Odessa is sealed off, that leaves rail transport fron Romania. I hope the Rusians really bottle up all railway entries into the country, andstop being behind the curve with demobilizing Ukraines army and economy. This will harm civilians as welk, but Ukrainians must be brought to a point where they want this war to an end
A kalibr or kinzhal hit on a fully loaded fuel train should do some damage.
thank you, nightvision, for another outstanding report. i am concerned, no doubt foolishly, that the red cross’ presence as the civilians are released may attempt to cover or protect any neonazis attempting to escape detection. i am hoping the russians will be documenting the releasees before the red cross meets them.
We don’t know for definite if there’s any “deals” going on, such as to release Azov militants etc. I obviously hope and assume there isn’t, as most here, but I’m simply saying we don’t know and what we’re “hearing” is the Nazis will not be allowed out.
However what I do know for a fact is that it’s been confirmed several times that any of the ‘civilians’ that come out of the factory are being stringently “processed” in the typical manner by DPR forces. Typically for adult males of fighting age, this entails stripping them of their shirt and maybe pants to check for Nazi tattoos, then checking their hands and fingers for very reliable indicators of having fired a gun, such as callouses in certain known places on the hand, fingers, and darkened skin from repeated gun powder discharges, and the like. And presumably also cross referencing them with known databases of militants, etc.
I think we all want to see these vaporized Nazi rats here, and we would like the SMO to be faster. Especially for someone like me who lives in the West and can’t afford so much anti-Russian propaganda in the media. Because it is already known that Russia can never win the propaganda war in the West which has soft power, big tech, social networks and media platforms all. But Putin could call Oliver Stone again to explain who started this war was the USA. And it was enough to talk about the provocations of the Nato exercises that train the Ukrainian armed forces since 2014 when Ukraine is not even a Nato country. As well as the OSCE reports with the exponential rise in the number of attacks by Nazi militias and Ukrainian armed forces in Donbass before 24 February! The USA wanted this war, as Lloyd Austin has now confirmed that he is nothing more than a Raytheon arms dealer. Even these Ukras bunkers in Donbass show that they prepared for this war.
Europeans all needed to hear this!
But what about the NATO personnel. There were reports that on several occasions the Russians let go US/Uk/Israeli “advisers” to Islamic terrorists. I am concerned a deal has been done to do this again here – although I cannot for the life of me imagine why.
I don’t think they will do a deal. The difference between the Zionist “advisers” in Syria and in Ukraine is that in Ukraine they are there acting directly against the Russian homeland. They will not be released.
Thank you for these amazing Sit Reps. So appreciated
What do you make of the photos today of the civilians leaving Azovstal?
They certainly did not look like they had been in a dank sunless pit for weeks in fear of their lives.
Some had suitcases. Two women in a video had dogs. ??!! Everyone had clean faces, clean clothes.
The interviews were in Russian, so I have no idea what the recently released women were saying.
They certainly did not look like they had escaped a horrific ordeal. The pictures were just not what I expected.
I just hope the UN and Red Cross do not try and smuggle the UKR and NATO rats out by some nefarious trickery.
Also would there have been any female fighters/soldiers in Azovstal? Or do women not serve in UAF?
i am concerned about that as well
Russia does not want to get stuck in a long, grinding proxy war and won’t. I don’t know what the RF has planned, but you can be sure that they will not play the west’s game. This is the second Great Patriotic War, and it is going to get big, quickly.
Look for China to become actively involved militairly as west ramps up global provacations. Iran is not going to sit around and watch, either.
The US is worse than Hitler and has arguably killed more people in the last 75 years of non-stop war than Nazi Germany did. North Korea lost 5 million, the Vietnamese lost 3 million. That’s more than the holocaust and we’re only up to 1974, almost another 50 years of bodies to count.
The psychopaths running the US and their European puppet states need to be put down for the good of all humanity.
Soviet Union lost 27 million. Don’t dare to omit them but mention the tired and worn out hollowhoax.
2 + 2 = 4
No proof from me, just wild especulation.
Killary was supposed to win in 2016 but Trump did. And Trump didn’t like war so much. Not only that, the US economy was booming under his term, he had all the cards to win again (2nd terms were always a guarantee if the economy did well)
So, how to get Trump out of the race and at the same time, mount a monstrous campaign directed to allow much more control over people?
How to prepare the public to start hating on China?
How to conditionate people for a state of total emergency?
China and the US were conducting coronavirus research in Wuhan. What if it was the US itself which liberated the virus there? What if it did it in a way so concealed that even the Chinese themselves were not sure that was a mistake on their part? What if the US didn’t considered disclosing the lab leak because it could have harmed themselves and put them in, not yet wanted, direct confrontation with China, maybe putting the public even more on the Trump side?
So, media started attacking Trump, US economy began to tank, with the direct result that Trump lost and now the same people that wanted war is again in power.
Obama, killary or Biden, they are all the same. They are merely executors.
And, now, make no mistake, we are in the beginnings of ww3. All prepared, all carefully thought through, one scenario leading to another.
First, the virus from China, now the war from Russia. China and Russia, those evil twins.
The public is totally psyched up for a total war.
Bush and Bush, Clinton and Clinton, Trump and Biden?
They are all the same.
Same shit, different assholes.
Not Trump as far as we can see. The others are all the same. We will know within the next 12 months. Trump said within the past few weeks that Russia has info on Biden and gang and ask Putin to release it.
Bushes, Clintons, Bidens, Obama and the rest all went crazy if Trump even tried to talk to Putin. Funny how these globalists never have anything bad to say about China.
Russia has already said the documents they found link Hunter Biden to bioweapons labs in the Ukraine.
I’m was praying for Trumps victory over the Wicked Witch of the West in 2016. It messed up the program.
Trump managed to destroy the Empire with the martyring of Soleiman in 2020. His talk of abandonning Nato was also a step in the right direction for dismanteling Empire, and restoring of the US Republic. It also gave Russia 4 extra years to prepare for the inevitable. His election made a difference.
I also suspect the pandemic was released in on purpose. In US timed to be largely over by the next presidential periode. First virus traces are in western europe in early 2019. Classically a pandemic burn out during 2-3 years. It just happened to first be detected in China, as they for good reasons have security programs to pick up such events. Event 21 by WEF was a bit of a give away as well :)
I haven’t seen any discussion about Ukraine economics. They were deeply in debt before the war and barely getting by – with IMF holding back. Now there is Lend Lease. Unless there is forgiveness of billions, how can they survive with a shattered economy?
Beyond that, a weakened EU and US will have to pay their bills – during inflation and recession (or worse). Zelensky wants 7 billion a month ! And more humorous than that will be embargo on gas – that earns transit cash for Ukraine !
As long as the US can print arbitrarily large amounts of $$ and have it accepted at face value, they can keep Ukraine propped up – at least until the physical destruction of infrastructure gets too much.
USA money printing will work until it doesn’t which could be soon. Russia gold, oil and gas backed ruble and requiring ruble payment was as big as a kinzal hypersonic missile hit.
That wouldn’t be much of a problem cause Ukraine wouldn’t exist as a state beyond this year.
Both sides believe that the longer this kinetic conflict lasts the more likely it is that the other side will collapse. Both sides have the ability to continue the conflict for quite some time and until collapse happens to one side no one side will surrender.
Therefore, this conflict will continue in one form or another for quite a while.
That said, since both USG and Eurasia are pursuing policies which hasten US and European depression, chances are that US will collapse first. Given they have no internal cohesion, genuine economy, good governance, rule of law and all the rest of it, it is unlikely that the US can last another two years before collapsing into depression at which point they will no longer be able to sustain a war in Europe.
Correct. The U.S. society is in upheaval and is the closest it’s ever been to fracturing and descending into civil war. Russian society is currently the most galvanized and unified in solidarity that it’s been since maybe WW2.
The only credit you can give to the U.S. is it started with a much bigger $$$ coffer so perhaps it can go longer based on that, but as you said, particularly with midterm elections coming later this year which are set to be absolutely bloody in the figurative sense of societal tension and media hysteria, I’m not sure how long the U.S. will last either.
Nightvision, I have only started reading this website in the past month and I have found your posts extremely informative. However, as an American I can tell you our society is nowhere close to a civil war. People are far too comfortable in their lives and there is no unifying leader to unite dissenting Americans, those who see the government and illegitimate corrupt traitors to the country. Without a leader or organization, there will be no civil war, despite much if the dissenting population being armed. Even those is my country that realize how corrupt our government is, have no recourse or anyone to follow in order to resolve the problems of our nation. It saddens me to say, but its true. It would take starvation or similar extreme suffering to rise up, and even the we would need a leader to coalesce around. Thank you again for your posts.
As another American, I disagree. Things look ok on the surface here but in the last two presidential elections, half the electorate has believed the election stolen. Less than 18 months ago the US experienced a near color revolution. Trust in government and each other is low. I won’t say civil war, but cascading collapse is a real possibility. It wouldn’t take much of an economic shock to crumble American stability.
You have no idea how civil wars are instigated, if you had visited Yugoslavia in 1986, 87 or even 88, most people there would tell you that a civil war will never happen, & the country will not fracture because no one wants it, & that Bosnia will hold the country together because it has the highest rate of mixed marriages. 5 year later war was raging in Bosnia & Yugoslavia had ceased to exist (I don’t count the successor FR Yugoslavia of Serbia/Montenegro, that was Serb communists trying to flog a dead horse). Civil wars break out because of a fracturing & polarisation within the upper echelons of society, the mass of the population has no say in any of this, & no influence at all, they will go with what is imposed on them. In the US you have a fractured political establishment that actually uses war rhetoric against one another, you also have a fractured & polarised ruling class or oligarchy, had Trump attempted a real battle to defend against the stolen election you would have had a civil war then – this is precisely why Trump did not do much past a few legal actions, he decided to surrender, consolidate his support in the GOP & then focus on the next presidential election. In the US right now you basically have a countdown towards political disintegration – that does not have to lead to a war, civil or otherwise, but it is not likely to be avoided because there will be a battle over succession of what takes place of the United States. The US will not survive the eventual collapse of the Dollar as world reserve currency, & that is now a matter of time, & there are good grounds for believing that when the Dollar collapses, Wall St will itself move to dissolve the United States in a restructuring & reorganizational insolvency manoeuvre. I could continue, no point, if you reside in the US, you should prepare yourself for the worst.
Things could escalate quickly when inflation goes sky-high to an extent that ordinary people can no longer tolerate it.
Perhaps it would be relevant here to think about the history of Germany during 20th century, between the two wars. Societal downgrade and misery might make a career in repressive organs and in the army like an excellent, and finally, the only choice.
Once one layer of civilization is blown away, totally different dynamics and forces come to the fore. UKRNZ behaviour seems to point in that direction, too.
I think the Russians, DPR and LPR remember the Donna’s cauldrons from last time before Minsk agreement. 2017 or so? The Ukies had no food or ammo then. Kyiv is so corrupt and dishonest that they cheat their soldiers and mercenaries. The mercenaries said they were never paid. Kyiv and Zelensky plus his cronies and oligarchs pals are thieves.
I pray more and more Ukie’s lay down arms and rebel against Kyiv. Russia’s slow approach and relative compassion will hopefully wake up the Ukrainians. The enemy is Kyiv, the EU and NATO.
Nato is at war with Russia, but won’t admit it openly. When Russia, sanctions Germany by stopping oil and gas deliveries, the war will be over in a week.
Be wary if the Azov Nazis suddenly start to release their families, but stay behind. If they intended to surrender, they’d come out with the women and children. So they intend to go out in a blaze of glory, which might be self-inflicted, and might involve WMDs, for which Russia will immediately be blamed.
Does Putin have any real choice now but to take control of ALL of the Ukraine? It is apparent that if he tries to take just some of it, the West is not going to stop trying to retake it. If that happens, then what? A long-term attrition war that will ultimately lead to Putin’s demise, or a nuclear conflict that destroys everyone?
Taking all will just add internal problems. The people in the western part most certainly do not want to live in Russia. Also then Selensky probably would form an exile government.
So maybe better stop at a more natural border and leave the rest to poison the West when they try to absorb it. I see that more like a frozen conflict like between north and south Korea. Maybe with a 50-100km DMZ in between, so that there are no artillery firing between both side.
I can not see Selensky no surrendering in any way. Even if all of Ukraine is lost. The West will not accept that.
So I had to take it to Lisbon and be careful with invasions by sea. Otherwise the West will not stop trying to retake Ukraine from Poland. None of that. The West of Ukraine will be the new Buffer Zone that Putin has always demanded. And Nato will remove the anti-ballistic missile ramps it has in Poland, Bulgaria and Romania aimed at Moscow. For Putin, Nato is a problem for US vassals, Putin does not admit it and very well is missiles aimed at Moscow. As the US did not admit in the Cuban missile crisis. The US will never be able to weaken Russia afterwards with the alliance with China which is what drove the US crazy. Another part that will lose a lot is the EU with gas prices. I hope at the very end of the conflict that the EU will be able to re-establish relations with Moscow and expel NATO from Europe. Meanwhile every day a New World Order is being created. The world will never be the same after this SMO. Bye, bye petrodollars and only this changes everything! The US will never again have a currency to threaten the whole world. Go home, it’s even good for their people. On the brink of civil war since the 2008 crash! The US also has a lot of problems at home and the world’s police are gone. Fucking all!
Thanks for Sitrep. And I just wanted to say one thing: Arestovich is a child and a corrupt clown like Zelensky. We all know that Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe which, before the conflict, already had 50% of the working population outside the country. After the 2014 coup d’état, the US, the oligarchs and the Nazis that empowered Ukraine are in charge. My only surprise was how completely the EU allowed itself to be swayed by the US. Zelesnky and Arestovich read the speeches you give them. And if the Ukrainian people don’t quickly realize that it’s just cannon fodder, Ukraine still takes a tactical nuclear warhead in the western part. The US will continue to send weapons to Ukraine as long as Russia does not send them home for good. I am European but today I hate the EU even more because they let the US destroy all of Europe. They are indeed US vassals as Putin says.
Arestovich – fanatically anti-Russian and very clever at presenting things in a way that seems honest and straight forward but isn’t.
During the 2014 first Donbass war, entire units with their weapons and equipment deserted to the Donetsk and Lugansk armies. More than 75% of draft classes failed to report for induction in the Ukrainian army. They didn’t want to fight with Nazis or for oligarch bank accounts. Ukrainian regular conscripts fight only because Banderites threaten to shoot them if they surrender.
I’m happy to see the same thing happening today. Let it be remembered that Ukrainians voted for Zelenskiy because he proposed negotiations with Russia and peace. Zelenskiy was and is, more afraid of murdering Banderites, not least because they are armed and supported by US-NAYOYO, however incompetently and treacherously.
One shouldn’t assume the Empire of Chaos and Lies can continue its proxy war against Russia much longer, let alone spoil for another one against China. On the economic war front, the Empire’s elites appear to be desperately forcing EU and US so-called leaders to find any possible means to disrupt the alternative energy and commodities trading modalities that are circumventing the dollar and euro. Their monopoly money is being undermined along with their hegemony. More than half of the world’s population recognizes this and is losing “faith and trust” let alone respect, while the vast longstanding debt and over-leveraged speculation are causing instability once again. The game is unsustainable because the people won’t put up with their destruction much longer in the name of “freedom and democracy” which have been usurped from their own societies.
Totally superb Sitrep, Nightvision. Thank you for this.
Accurate unbiased info is essential for us to really know what is going on. The Empire of Lies thrives on lies, which makes truth a garlic pill or silver bullet against it. No matter how uncomfortable or painful, we must not shy away from it in this war of values where everywhere is a frontline.
Personally I am beginning to think Russia and NATO forces will directly clash in the coming months. I think we all fear nuclear war, but I think this clash will be conventional and remain conventional for the predictable future. I also think Putin, if he sees a build up on the borders and thinks a fight inevitable will strike first. Who can say?
Let us not forget to pray, those of us who know how to and believe in Truth and Light above. For you others who do not believe, remember to kiss your children and hug your mothers and fathers. That also is a form of prayer against the slumbering Beast that has awakened.
I pray all lovers of truth and those who bring us the truth – Nightvision, the Saker, “hello that’s me again” Martyanov, etc. – safety and Divine protection.
If troops enter from the western side, they will surely carry a tactical nuclear warhead. There are no Russian troops there. Putin is not a camel like Saddam who let the US first gather all the troops in Iraq. If he’s been trying to destroy them as they’ve arrived, he wouldn’t have let his entire army burn in the desert with white phosphorus. Have you ever heard Scott Ritter say how the US does when it enters a war? Kill everything that appears. Never forget that this is the first war to be played live on television. And the West has big tech, social networks and all the main media platforms. In advertising he always wins and he has never lied as much as he does now.
POW’s of every army are always complaining of “low morale” to flatter interrogators. We should not trust too much on their stories.
While you are right on that, there’s a few critical differences:
Firstly there’s been mass DESERTIONS, not just captures. An entire unit wrote a letter of desertion to high command citing all sorts of low morale and other issues.
Secondly, as I stated, the presidential advisor to Zelensky himself in his latest interview said there was a huge morale problem currently that needs to be dealt with because it’s ‘spreading’, where many soldiers are calling their families and saying everything is ‘doom and gloom’ basically and has ‘gone to hell’. So how would you reconcile that one? These are not captured soldiers, these are soldiers on the frontlines calling their relatives in such numbers that even Zelensky’s advisor has to make statements on it.
I agree. It would be unusual for a POW uncertain of his fate to be in high spirits.
Believing what we badly wish for is as dangerous as believing Anglo-Nazi lies.
Some videos for today.
Mothers and wives in Zakarpatskaya oblast (in far western Ukraine) protest against the Kiev regime sending their men to the front to die (MUST SEE):
Shows Iskander launch that hit Kiev-regime forces:
Russian and LPR soldiers inspect streets of Rubezhnoye:
Russia’s Buk-M3 takes down Kiev-regime drone:
Russia shows Ka-52 & Mi-8TV helicopters in action:
A rally in support of the special operation was held in Minsk:
As to those wondering why progress ‘seems’ slow if Russia is winning so easily. Here’s my personal opinions:
1. I’ve stated many times that my personal position is that the full offensive hasn’t begun yet mostly owing to the fact that I’ve stated since the beginning that I believe the real offensive would only begin after Mariupol fully falls and the remainder of the men there are freed up. With that said, it’s been gradually ramping up anyway since the announcement of phase 2 so I’m not sure if we’ll see an actual strong sudden push or whether it will just add an incremental force at this point.
2. Another reason why things go “slow” is Russia is using a relatively small force. I don’t mean in comparison to its total forces, with the “10%” numbers being thrown around, I mean even smaller than western experts are stating. The whole 150-200k number being thrown around, if you’ve followed my sitreps for a while you’ll know I’ve debunked those numbers with some careful investigations, and I’m still not convinced Russia is utilizing that much force even after supposedly adding new reinforcements during phase 2.
One of the actual verifiable pieces of proof I have for this is the fact that Arestovych himself (presidential advisor to Zelensky) stated 2 days ago in one of the interviews I’ve been referencing something along these lines, “Russia is crazy, trying to take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk with 25,000 men”.
This is a very eye-opening statement because it appears Arestovych has confirmed some extremely sensitive data, which if true, indicates that the entire northern front only has 25,000 Russian troops. Keep in mind, as everyone here knows, this is by far the busiest and most explosive front currently and all military logic would dictate that this is where Russia would have by far its largest concentration of troops. But Arestovych himself says Russia is only using 25k? And we’re supposed to believe Russia has upwards of 200-250k in theatre?? Please tell me where the remaining 175k-225k are? Russia only had a tiny Marine company or so in Mariupol, there isn’t much action on the southern front and Russia likely only has a few brigades on the Gulyaipole line. And then there’s Kherson which probably has a sizeable force but that’s it.
But if this is true, the natural question is, why is Russia using so few troops STILL? Well, one of the strongest theories at this point is that Russian general staff has gamed the whole scenario out and for clear and obvious reasons has anticipated the current NATO escalations and as such is holding back its main force for the coming inevitable showdown with NATO, etc., or at least the potential of it. After all, remember the very threat from the U.S. itself. Several high ranking officials in the U.S. said that you have to catch Putin with his pants down, while he’s bogged down in Ukraine and all his forces are tied up, he won’t be able to respond to U.S. threats/aggression. This was literally stated by the U.S. So why wouldn’t Putin listen to such threats? Clearly he doesn’t want to tie up too much forces in the country just in case there’s any nasty surprises from NATO.
3. The JFO zone was heavily fortified for 8 years by the AFU / ATO troops. It is incredibly militarized in terms of ground fortifications, underground tunnels, caponiers, trench systems, minefields, flooded rivers from blown dams, destroyed bridges, etc etc. And as others have mentioned in places where there’s towns, there is heavy urban warfare that is a huge bog for everyone, i.e. Rubizhnoe, Popasna, etc.
4. People must understand that there’s a reason Russia calls this an SMO and not a ‘war’, because there are different characteristics and objectives to it. I’ve mentioned this before but chief amongst them is the fact that Russia is treating it simultaneously as a humanitarian mission. So every place that it captures, Russia is expending a large amount of manpower to provide humanitarian assistance to the population by helping evacuate, and feeding the people with huge amounts of humanitarian convoys, etc, etc. This slows things down and ties down troops for obvious reasons. People are just not familiar with such a thing because they’re used to seeing only U.S.’s style of war which is one where the opponent is dehumanized and treated like subhuman scum, and media covers for all the crimes so there’s no accountability and the U.S. can just rampage through every area slaughtering all civilians with impunity and never any concern about slowing down or providing humanitarian efforts.
5. Lastly to add on top of the previous, as others have stated Russia has shifted tactics now to greatly minimize casualties. Despite the fact that I still view the opening Phase 1 as mostly a success, the fact of the matter is, Russia did get a nasty bloody nose to the extent that it still suffered over 1000 losses which, while being acceptable and low for a conflict of this size, are still higher than Russia likely anticipated – they would have loved to have gotten away with only a few hundred in an ideal scenario. So now it has adapted to Ukraine’s tactics and has shifted its own to be more wary of needless losses and so it’s proceeding slowly and methodically by destroying Ukraine groupings one piece at a time before proceeding onward, just like I had said they would weeks ago when I detailed this very shift of tactics.
In the end Russia believes time is on its side because the west is currently collapsing economically, and they are only accelerating this collapse by bankrupting themselves militarily, and in fact Russia has created an ‘Afghanistan’ money sink for the West here, whereas Russia is now making a record profit from its exports and the Ruble is the highest performing currency in the world currently, reaching new high’s of high 60’s against the USD. And the price of gas/oil/etc keep going up and so Russia is making more and more on its commodity exports.
The opposing argument is that time is not on Russia’s side because NATO is going to be arming Ukraine but the problem is, those people are the ones underestimating (due to military ignorance) the vast losses Ukraine is currently incurring and so their understanding of how the conflict will play out has major flaws. At the current attrition rate, Ukraine may not have anything left to arm in a few months.
By the way, there’ve been alleged reports that Ukrainian general staff believes the Donbas could fall by the end of May. Don’t know if the report is true, but hypothetically speaking if that happens and the cauldron is trapped or destroyed, that would mean that in 3 months of the operation, Russia will have erased over 100,000 total troops from the AFU, and that’s a conservative estimate based on my belief there’s only 50k or less in the cauldron – some believe it’s as high as 100k, which would make the total 150k or more gone in 3 months time.
I agree with everything. And first of all I want to say that I believe 200% in Russian forces. I don’t think I missed anything in phase 1. I think that at the limit it may have failed something with the Russian Intel regarding the reception of soldiers in Ukraine but it must be said that the SBU anticipated and changed some Mayors. As Nightvision says, Russia did not enter Ukraine to kill like the US did in Iraq. The problem in Ukraine is Nato and the Nazis and not the whole Ukrainian people as Putin said. The troops in Kiev were only to fix Ukras and pressure Zelesnky to negotiate. To tell you the truth, I only have doubts about the battle at Hostomel airport?! Did Russia really try to catch Zelensky? Besides, as Nightvision says, now it’s only working the artillery. It is Russian military doctrine. Against barracks underground. The Ukras even prepared for this conflict. Soon, put the tanks to work!
Already now Nightvision Opinion on Battle of Hostomel and whether it was to arrest Zelesnky?
Thanks for your analysis Nightvision. It’s very thorough and really appreciated. What are the Russian options to repel a joint Ukrainian and Romanian thrust against Transnitria ? How do you see such a NATO gambit playing out ?
I agree re the relatively small scale of Russian forces, however one cannot discount LDNR and Chechens, but the fact remains the scale of purely Russian forces is relatively small. IMHO this is because Russia is anticipating/planing a NATO war. So armies are held in reserve. From the beginning I’ve been reading about a major force in Belarus, around BREST – this seems to be aimed at Poland. The fact remains, that for whatever reason, Russia chose not to flatten Ukraine in a couple of days.
Very interesting. Made me wonder if “Russia getting bogged down” and the US strategy of prolonging the war might in fact work in Zone B’s favour in hastening the collapse of Empire and its unipolar ‘Rules Based Order’.
I hope the Russian military is prepared scenarios for joint operations with the Chinese military should additional boots be needed on the Western front if NATO troops do begin to pour in.
Is time on Russia’s side? Yes, it is.
But only for the time being. Because this is a full spectrum war, in which Russia needs to impose a historic defeat on the US.
On May 2, 1945, the red flag waved high above the Reichstag in Berlin. Then Nazi Germany suffered a historic defeat. Despite its economic recovery, to this day Germany endures this setback.
On April 30, 1975, the US suffered a major defeat in Vietnam. But it was not a historic defeat, although it was a historic victory for Vietnam, because since then it grew as a nation.
How to impose a historic defeat on the US?
The power of the USA rests on two pillars, which support each other:
– military power;
– the “exorbitant privilege” of issuing the Dollar.
The American military-industrial complex is financed by the exorbitant privilege of issuing the Dollar, which in turn is guaranteed by military power.
Thus, the historic defeat of the U.S. can only be achieved if conquered on these two fronts.
To be victorious, Russia needs allies, not least because the U.S. is a common enemy for any nation with aspirations to sovereignty.
China and now India are forming a powerful alliance with Russia. Another important ally would be Brazil.
Regrettably, after the 2016 Coup d’Etat (like the one that occurred in Ukraine in 2014), Brazil has regressed to a neo-colonial status.
Bolsonaro and the Generals who support him, as well as the big Brazilian businessmen, prefer to be puppets of the USA.
Nor should we hope for a probable future government of Lula. Despite all his international prestige, Lula is a farce.
To get a sense of this, just take a look at Lula’s opinion on the war in Ukraine:
《This war started wrong, unnecessary, Putin made a big mistake in the outbreak of the war. But I think the Americans were very wrong, the Europeans were very wrong. It is a war that we could have solved before it happened, at a table having a good beer.》
Lula, the Lulinha (little Lula) Peace and Love – April 05, 2022.
Be that as it may, the theater of operations in Ukraine is just the tip of the iceberg of a world war that we need, all of us, to emerge victorious.
Lula is not wrong. Lula was the best president of Brazil that before the coup was on his way to being the 5th largest economy in the world. It had already overtaken France and was going to overtake the UK. In the impeachment of Dilma and in the arrest of Lula with Moro there was a lot of money from Aamerica. Now with Bozo it’s the 15th. And the BRICS with Lula are Russia’s greatest allies. What Lula says is that Nato should never have gone to the borders with Russia and there was never a war. Lula is the next President of Brazil and he will once again give strength to UNASUR and CELAC to take South America out of the grip of the Monroe doctrine. Without the petrodollars, US hegemony ends and Brazil with China and India are the most important countries in the Global South. Listen to Dilma or Pepe Escobar. Because you misunderstood Lula. Putin didn’t want to have to launch this SVO either. It was enough for Nato to retreat and Ukraine to comply with the Minsk agreements. That’s what Lula solved with a few beers.
Some 27 million Soviets sacrificed their lives until Nazi-Facism was defeated, in World War II (the Great Patriotic War, as the Russians aptly call it).
It would have been great if Nazi-Facism could have been defeated with a few beers, during a cordial conversation around a table.
And we Brazilians, have we had our Great Patriotic War?
Despite a long and bloody history of many rebellions, until today we have not been fully victorious in our Great Patriotic War.
And it will not be with a few beers that we will achieve any victory.
In December 1991 Russia suffered a historic defeat, with the collapse of the USSR.
After Mr. Putin took office, still as interim, on December 31, 1999, Russia began its recovery.
In 2007 Russia already had its head held high, preparing to fight the Second Patriotic War.
This is the war now underway. To fully overcome the historic defeat of 1991, Russia needs a victory.
And this war also concerns us, all of us. But especially to us Brazilians.
Why is Brazil so concerned about a war thousands of miles away? Did you show any concern when your USA masters destroyed large parts of the middle east, along with so much more?
Brazil is like a mirror image of USA with aristocracy on top , and coloureds and the natives suffering. Your politics is exactly the same as in Pakistan, where the country is controlled by a US paid for army, politicians and the judicial system. The results are the same, except for the funding of “friendly terrorists”.
Russia seems to be on it’s way to free all of us from the shackles that bind us. When the US dollar loses it’s control, they will lose their grip on the many countries, oligarchs and coup leaders they rely on to do their dirty work.
I thank Night vision for his wonderful insightful work.
State Duma deputy Oleg Matveychev explains what you refer too. I do not know if you already listen to his comments about the operation??, but ackording to him there is a reason for the militart operation being done as it is and points a little to what you think and explain, so you are right. Maybe Matveychev is bluffing, i do not know but what he says seems rational as this is a war with NATO, not Ukraine, Putin is deliberately giving the impression of walking a tightrope in the conflict. It is an interesting what he says.
This is a very astute supplementary analysis in response to the underlying tone of concern in many comments here that Russia seems to be stalled and that they had better hurry up or NATO cavalry will come to the rescue of the Ukraine.
My best hypothesis, based on the totality of everything I have read in this blog, MOA, various other non-MSM sites and contrasting it all with the shrill, hysterical tone and content of western MSM that I am exposed to daily; is that while the US/NATO did indeed wish to lure Russia into a war – one way or the other – and on the surface got their “wish,” the scope, strategy and tactics of the Russian SMO was not expected. Russia launching a three-pronged attack, with massive air strikes across the country and a strong feint to Kiev – simulating a full-scale invasion – caught even the most razor-sharp non-MSM controlled analysts off guard. To then maintain this illusion sufficiently long enough to freeze AFU assets in place to enable a relatively small force to progressively degrade the Donbass grouping was nothing less than brilliant, whether by initial design or in reaction to a different reality on the ground from what they might have anticipated. This was NOT what was anticipated by western military planners.
And so it continues. And with each day that the gathering of AFU forces in the Donbass is allowed to dwell on their worsening predicament, more and more of them are coming to the correct conclusion about who has their best interests at heart. Russia is slowly upping the pain dial to encourage this kind of illumination – yet another indicator that they do not wish to annihilate the conventional Ukrainian armed forces.
As for the US’s grandiose plans for a lengthening of the war by arming and training what’s left of the UFA and goading the Idiocracies of Eastern Europe to send “volunteers” or national troops into the Western Ukraine or Transnistria under a humanitarian guise: to me these sound like plans scribbled on a napkin, easily scrapped and replaced with something even more desperate as the initiative slips away from them due to the reality on the ground, in the economic sphere and the impenetrable nature of Russian plans.
It is the West that cannot afford a long war, not Russia.
You have put my thoughts on paper
“why progress ‘seems’ slow if Russia is winning”
The way I pieced it together by gleaning bits of info here and there, and trying, as a non-military guy, to make sense of it is like this, rock, paper, scissors.
The West prepared a beautiful and complex trap for Russia to sacrifice aircraft and tanks and infantry in an assault on deeply fortified areas saturated with manpads, ATGMs, snipers and towns built up into fortresses.
Now the West is not amused that Russia doesn’t play by the rules, preferring instead not to sacrifice aircraft in trying to demonstrate massive air superiority, not to sacrifice tanks in launching massive tank army assaults on terrain, and not to sacrifice infantry in storming fortified towns.
Russia is making judicious and careful use of aircraft, is not sending the tanks to frontal attack (yet), and not storming anything.
For the most part, it seems to me, Russia is destroying the enemy from afar using artillery and spotter drones. There doesn’t seem to be much the enemy can do about it. Counter attacks to get closer, such as near the Oskol reservoir, seem to have resulted in defeats. It’s not quite the war they were expecting. Rock, paper, scissors.
Correct me if I’m wrong – I’m by no means a military expert, and not a fan of war in any way, just accepting the reality of war shaping history. And thanks for your reports and thoughts, Nightvision.
Another reason for the “slow progress” or “delayed offensive” could be that Russia is already eyeing what comes after. I believe Russia is confident enough of its victory to be concentrating on the manner of it. The most important thing is that the defeated Ukrainian troops don’t come out of it as heroes. Even catastrophic defeats like Thermopylae can be converted into national legends of glory. If the Ukrainian army in the Donbass is massacred by a lightning tank offensive it might end up boosting the neo-Nazis’ heroic legends. What would suit the Russians best is if the Ukrainian army disintegrates from within. There are widespread allegations Azov and other neo-Nazi groups are attached to various regiments and act like the Red Army commissars, shooting those who want to surrender. As the barrage of intense Russian shelling goes on, nerves on the other side may snap. Firefights may break out between Azov and troops wanting to surrender. Captured prisoners may recount what happened. That would be ideal from the Russian point of view : the total discrediting of Azov as not the heroes of Ukraine but murderous thugs and oppressors. That could have a crucial effect on the will of the Ukrainians to keep fighting after this defeat. Discrediting Azov and the Nazi sleazebag in Kiev may be far more important to the primary goal of denazification than a brilliant, Napoleonic victory in one battle.
Yep, well said. Human psychology is playing a big part of the Ukies demise. It will destroy what Russian artillery can’t reach.
As long as one continues to analyse this “conflict” as if it is what it appears to be, and only what it appears to be, the analysis will fail. The “conflict” appears to be the logical outcome of one sovereign nation state asserting its own self interests (and the interests of its people) against the opposing interests of other sovereign nation states.
First, there are no sovereign nations left among the former western democracies. They have all been captured and are fully controlled at the federal level or equivalent, including the executive, legislative, and judicial elements of these formerly sovereign, formerly self interested nation states.
The former western democracies are now controlled by a billionaire cabal best described as the City of London/ Wall Street/ Israeli Cabal, aka the Davos crowd. This cabal operates secretly but expresses policy goals through various front organizations including the World Economic Forum, the WHO, the IMF, etc etc. None of these governments function in any way to represent the “people” of these former states.
The Cabal despises the idea of the sovereign nation state, and has as its primary goal above all to completely eradicate them. They have been and will continue to be replaced by a top down technocratic tyranny that has no precedent in history in terms of its scale, brutality, and complexity. Prepare for the planned introduction of a brutal neo-feudalism.
The names of the key figures would not be a surprise to any student of western history. The black hands at play today belong to the very same families that have engineered, precipitated, and profited from every war involving the western powers in modern history.
What is presented to us now as merely one more war in a long history of wars involving those nasty nation states that just can’t get along, the good guys here, the bad guys there, is absolutely false. None of this is what it seems.
The target is us. All of the ordinary people of the world; the neo-peasantry. What is occurring will help continue the planned destruction of the superstructures which make possible a dignified existence for large numbers of ordinary people. Oil and gas production and demand; large scale agricultural and animal production; energy production, comprehensive transportation and supply chain networks, etc., and of course, the financial “system.”
For those reasons, the “sanctions” were primarily aimed at the west, always.
So what exactly, is Russia actually doing and why? Heavy Mellow and others here are asking the right questions. Our desire to believe something is good, something is true, is the lens through which the analysis fails.
The evidence of the true nature of the relationship among the elites of China, and at least some in Russia, to the Global Aristocracy (the Cabal) is abundant and clear (and readily available to those who look for it).
Analyze from that understanding if you can stomach the truth. Perhaps then what you actually see with your own eyes your mind will let you believe and then begin to understand. No need to lay it out in more detail here, but these brief observations from two of the great thinkers of ancient history are appropriate:
“Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions–everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses.”
“He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, cones wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.”
May God help us all help all of us.
Just the way I see it too. It’s all to smooth, despite the horrors. A new con game going on with real dead bodies and suffering, but has it not always be like this?
100% Spot on. People need to read Prof Anthony Sutton’s books. Both sides here have legitimate reasons to goad the peons to war, but neither the Ukrainian or Russian joe soap will come out of this in a better position. Only the financial pigs and their political minions will.
Can somebody explain this video to me? It states that this is Azovstal civilians. How is it possible that Ukraine made this video in Mariupol.What kind of propaganda is this?
The video is old. I’ve seen it for days. And just a smartphone.
You fail to explain, Paulo.
Preki, Azovstal fighters made the video to show that Ukrainian civilians are hiding in bunkers with the fighters. It is poor propaganda because fighters should not hide behind civilian hostages.
International “rules of war”: both sides allow civilians to escape, fighters fight.
US “rules of war”: kill everybody, steal the gold.
So it looks like Ukrainian “rules of war”: Russia allows civilians to escape, Ukrainian fighters stop them escaping.
To be fair, those women and children look happy enough to be there. Maybe they are wives and children of the fighters. Maybe they have swallowed propaganda and believe the Russians will do terrible things to them: death would be better.
Outstanding interview – puts Syria and Ukraine in context:
Peter, thanks for posting it. I’ve been trying to get it in everywhere I can. Black pretty much kicks everyone in the West who are propagandized straight in the teeth. Anyone trying to brush him with a propaganda brush is going to display themselves for the fraud they are. He’s of the cloth of Smedley Butler.
You don’t have to be a genius strategist or have access to insider intel to realize 2 things.
Russia has the experience and discipline to conduct a long term operation within a defined budget. I.e. Syria.
The West throws away money on operations like they have an endless amount of it.
The reality is the west cannot afford to blow trillions on a 3-10 year war for Ukraine. But that reality will not stop them from doing it. The corruption is too deep and they are too arrogant. They think throwing enough money at it will give them the result they seek but 90% of that money gets siphoned off in their corruption.
Reagon era USA bragged that they outspent the Soviet union into defeat. Wonderfully ironic that that same situation will play out in the reverse 2nd time around.
USA/NATO are in am undeclared war against Russia and, thus, their economies are not operating on a war footing.
USA should have immediately gone “drill baby drill” to work to keep oil prices down but their leadership is too political and too set on their “green new deal” progressive shit. As a net exporter, high oil/gas prices favor Russia heavily and weaken western allies who are all net importers.
This war is on many fronts with ideological being among them. Current western ideology is disconnected from reality. The commander in chief of US military forces is actually dumb enough to be talking about spending billions of dollars on making military vehicles emissions environmentally friendly. That is how stupid the western powers are.
That is not an arrangement that is only confined to western companies.
If I were China, I’d be chomping at the bit to get some of my equipment/missiles into the Ukrainian theater of war to battle test it.
I would venture to guess it’s not only Russia and the west that is ramping up production of equipment and arms.
If I was an arms producer anywhere in the world I’d be running 24/7, looking to expand production and hiring more sales people.
Does anyone here think Zelenskyy is going to willingly stick around Kiev-Lvov after a few months?
Figure he’ll be removed by UKR Military, SBU Staff, or by the UKRanian People by Election or Force once they realize that they’re expendable pawns to Kolomoiskyy and Zelenskyy – as RUS+Secessionists Section Off “Novo-Russia” and proceed to De-Militarize Kiev-Lvov by Artillery, Missiles, and Drones.
Unless he is captured by UKRanian Factions or by RUS/BLR/Secessionists, he’s eventually going to Leave/Flee to ISR, GBR, or Murica. He and his Owner Kolomoiskyy have the USD and ILS to live comfortably.
In theory, war could last until some kind of physical/material attrition of one of combatants. And West deliveries could prolong it. In practice, end could be of pyshological nature. Will Ukraine, devolving into poor and corrupt Nazi dictatorship, manage to motivate its young people to leave their best years or bones on battlefield, for duration of long war? I do not think so.
Russia has the ability to end these arms deliveries anytime it wants too. What is baffled so many is why it never does.
Great report NV!
You saved the best for last…. delightful. Someone will have told him the grim news, but somehow I doubt
Also the bill which ‘was launched solely to legalize the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine’
You can be sure that those F-16’s that are flying into Ukraine air-space will be piloted by Americans, not Uky’s. 1-3months is not adequate time frame to be fully re-trained into a complex new system and expect to win against superior and well experienced Russian fighters would be utter loonesy,
Excellent report! Thanks.
On Azovstal: I seriously doubt your hopes will come through. I don’t foresee UkroWehrmach surrendering at all. They will bargain and negotiate until hell freezes over, with the hope of a “humanitarian” extraction, which LDNR/Russia/Chechens shot the door for long ago.
Your hopes of seeing 2000 prisoners coming out of Azovstal might go into nothing.
On the war length: Has anybody ask the Russians their perspective about the length of the war? Russia holds the keys to the conflict, Aristovich the soothsayer is shooting aimlessly at nothing. We have to be clear about an issue, the corrupt mafia that surrounds the Zec have all the intention to enrich themselves as much as possible, while sacrificing the people of Ukraine, they don’t give a damn about their own people, they all belong to the Jewish cabal, greed is their guiding principle.
War is business, business is war, the longer, the better.
Take their greed into account when reading their calculations about “lengthy wars.”
On the Donbass and the war objectives: Colonel Cassad just posted a comment, worth to read, on the
Difficulties of the second phase of the special military operation
Difficulties of the second phase of a special military operation
Totally often encounter a misunderstanding by ordinary people of what is happening at the front. In some ways, this is the fault of television experts, who for eight years dispersed jingoism about “worthless Ukrainians”. In some ways, this is a banal lack of understanding of the specifics of military operations in the region.
In the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, the pace of advance of the Allied troops remains relatively slow. In the south, in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, progress is almost imperceptible.
Therefore, some may have the erroneous impression that the second phase of the SVO announced by the Russian military command has stalled.
However, this is not the case.
The main task of the second phase involves the establishment of full control over the Donbass. And here it is necessary to take into account several factors:
▪️The Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine consists of the most trained and motivated units, including those transferred from Western Ukraine.
▪️The enemy had eight years to think through and implement a deeply layered defense along the entire line of contact with the forces of the LPR and the DPR.
▪️The Ukrainian side deliberately does not evacuate the population from the combat zone, using civilians as human shields. Evacuation is carried out only when, as part of evacuation columns, the military mix with civilians.
All this, of course, complicates the main task of the second phase of CBO, but does not make it impossible.
Currently, the allied forces are making active attempts to break through the defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in several places at once:
▪️Slowly but surely, the advance in the Izyum direction is underway.
▪️Allied forces have completed the operational encirclement of Liman: the entire area is under the fire control of the Russian side.
▪️The battles for Rubizhnoye continue, where the enemy’s defense is gradually grinding.
▪️The People’s Militia of the LPR liquidated the powerful fortified area in Novotoshkovsky and advanced towards Orekhovo.
▪️The assault on Popasna continues: for a month and a half now, regular troops, “Kadyrovtsy” and “Wagnerians” have been slowly taking the city.
Popasnaya is called almost the Stalingrad of the current special operation. The comparison, although excessively pathetic, is still correct. Yes, there is a successful operation to liberate Mariupol.
But if we compare the scale of the forces and means involved, as well as the prospects opening up for the operation, then Popasnaya is one of the critical points for the success of the second phase of the SVO.
What gives control over Popasna: the
▪️possibility of continuing the offensive simultaneously in several directions;
▪️access to a major transport hub – the city of Bakhmut, the occupation of which will disrupt the supply of part of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
▪️the possibility of creating several cauldrons with the cutting off of the Slavic-Kramatorsk group from the rest of the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas.
Realizing these prospects, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred part of the units from the Rubezhnoye – Severodonetsk – Lysychansk agglomeration to Popasnaya. This made it possible to partially compensate for the losses incurred by the 24th Lviv Mechanized Brigade.
And although the Allied forces already control most of the city, the assault on Popasna is still one of the most difficult operations for several reasons.
▪️The populated point is located on a hill, where there is a whole network of natural water obstacles. This significantly slowed down the pace of the offensive in the early days.
▪️For 8 years, the Armed Forces of Ukraine made a powerful fortified area out of the city, surrounding it (especially along the southern outskirts) with a system of platoon and company strongholds, which are interconnected by communication channels. These communications make it possible to secretly transfer personnel and armored vehicles to firing positions with the possibility of prompt withdrawal to shelters.
▪️The liquidation of strongholds, where the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now trying to withdraw from the city, the Allied forces are likely to deal with after the liberation of the territory of Popasna itself.
▪️Most of the city is the private sector, in which Ukrainian servicemen dug trenches, trenches and equipped dugouts in basements. Cleaning up every house takes a lot of time and effort.
▪️In rare multi-storey buildings, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine created positions for snipers and fire spotters.
▪️There are still civilians in Popasna, which does not allow the Allied forces to fully use aviation and artillery.
So it turns out that the assault on the twenty-thousand-strong town will take more time than the liberation of half a million Mariupol.
However, this operation is gradually approaching completion.
At the moment
▪️, under the control of the Allied forces is the entire eastern part of the city, the railway station “Popasnaya-1”, the building of the local administration.
▪️Several strongholds around the city were eliminated.
▪️The south-western outskirts are being re-cleaned and preparations are underway for an offensive towards the Popasna Wagon Repair Plant.
▪️The servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine gradually understand the meaninglessness of further resistance and surrender in small groups.
The result of the liberation of Popasna will not be long in coming, and the second phase of the special military operation will go at a different speed.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/46062 – zinc
And with that, time for bed, too tired to write.
To be cont’d…
It’s weird to me that the west keeps using “Russia is behind on schedule / making slow progress” as a way of “proving” they’re going to lose the war.
1. Behind on whose schedule? 2. Even if Russia is behind on schedule, a country isn’t going to lose the war because they were delayed a few days.
I am sure the Russians have a plan for all this. Probably it goes something like this: destroy every airstrip and heliport in ukraine. Make every rail line, road, and trail along the western borders into a crater. Then announce a no fly zone/ no land travel zone. Anything that moves will be blown up. It would also help a lot if Belarus would invade the west area, secure the Polish and Romanian borders, and take Lvov. When are they going to help? Next send marines from the south and airborne from the north to Transnistria.
@Marinacat: “I am sure the Russians have a plan for all this. Probably it goes something like this: destroy every airstrip and heliport in ukraine. Make every rail line, road, and trail along the western borders into a crater.”
What ever plans RF may have the fact that every military has its limits reduces options as these 65 days have proved. So far we haven’t got evidence how much Russia can daily produce hypersonic missiles. They are actually quite expensive though mass production of course reduce unit prices. The logistic issues are even bigger factor limiting Russia’s potential capacity to “destroy everything”. Hypersonic missiles themselves are not silver bullet and clinchers of this war. Job must be done by conventional land warfare and it will be more likely slow progress, bloody action causing losses of thousands of soldiers to RF/DPR.
“What ever plans RF may have the fact that every military has its limits reduces options as these 65 days have proved”
Wrong; these past 65 days have not proven what you claim at all. In fact the opposite is true.
“So far we haven’t got evidence how much Russia can daily produce hypersonic missiles”
What do we need proof of that for? Don’t you think that a) stocks were built over the last eight years at least, most probably more, and b) that Putin placing Russia’s economy on a war footing would automatically include daily production of war materiel?
It is impossible to find any truth whatsoever here in the American media. The regime has take complete control of the means of propaganda, and facts have been swallowed up by a black hole. The demented president Biden and his narcotics-crazed son Hunter are in the control of megalomaniacs who intend to destroy Russia and take over the world. They have no other choice, since the Empire of Lies and Hatred is declining fast due to depletion of oil, gas, and many other resources needed for keeping its continent-wide Disneyland going. The U.S. is facing doom because of its inability to face the reality of general exhaustion.
We‘ve been discussing on this board the prospect of NATO building a big Army to counter attack the peacekeepers.
Seems NATO is confirming what we suspected.
Training will take 6-9 months. That puts any counterattack next Spring maybe early Summer.
Lonewolf is correct – this will be a global war of epic horror
The closing of ALL European airspace would then make land, littoral, and riparian based transport the only options. Especially for the interior, simpler targeting.
The Netherlands will send a team to investigate war crimes. To accuse Russia of crimes and genocide. The same club that claims to have gained a lot of experience during the MH17 investigation. I don’t know enough to say how legit this is. And to what extent does Russia tolerate this investigation that accused them of the MH17 disaster within 12 hours. And it is unbelievable that Dutch investigations will take place in Mariupol.
Here are some photos of Eastern Ukraine in 2015. Long before Russia entered. You can see that Ukrainians had already smashed it. An archive of such photos should be collected. 2014 to January 2022.
Russia must step up with destruction of infrastructure in Western Ukraine, as well as destruction of military hardware arriving in ever increasing quantities, through Poland. I hope this is going to happen in coming weeks.
As for Azov nazi rats and mercenaries in Mariupol, I hope none of them will leave Mariupol through humanitarian corridors.
that last comment, reminded me of how in the USA people would take “trophies” of tthe hanged African Americans body parts and preserve them in jars. Sick sick people.
We pray for Russian success, and for the Ukrainians to open their eyes to the illicit i tentions of these USA/NATO scum who are intent on control, destruction and murder for profit. Real Americans are NOT in support of this bullshit, and are not susceptible to their nonsense propaganda, but we do not have the bullhorn to voice or discontent like the MSM does.
NATO first goal was to push the EU to the Russian border including Belarus in order to establish a fortified area along the new line Maginot. This would be used for relentless attrition on Russia until the partition and occupation of the country. But this plan failed in Belarus and Donbass. NATO lost Crimea which was a historical turning point.
Now, I think they will try to create a buffer zone around Russia through proxy puppet states, in order to maintain a permanent source of instability and dont let Russia breath. A sort of 500 kms deep waste land including Poland and the remnants of Ukraine amid very serious energy shortages in mittle Europa.
The Russian position is much better than it was two months ago, with a purged 5th column and an eviction of various western cultural assets insidiously mining the country (facebook, google, etc). At the end this will be a matter of economics. Russia must gain more from its Chinese alliance that it spends in the NATO attrition war. And there is only one way to do so, which is to hit the centre of NATO power, not only the eastern proxies.
Above all, the anglosaxons cannot afford the sino-russian economic alliance to work, even if they need to destroy the whole Europe to do so.
I have still to learn how there is any possible justification for any of this “support for Ukraine” by the USA and the obsolete “defensive alliance” NATO, now becoming absurdly frenetic, filling a formerly productive country with huge stocks of weapons and dead bodies. All Russia asked for was security from attacks by NATO, and neutral status from its next-door neighbour which it has to live next to when all this is over, if anyone survives.
For Russia this is an existential issue, and the Stoltenberg mania/Biden madness/collective West induce Russophobia have already tried to destroy any Russian person, history, tree, park, economy, literature.They flood irrational beliefs in the media by hysterical lies and propaganda, with denial of any alternative versions and acceptance of Emperor Zelinskyy as the purveyor of truth to us all. Pushing Ze to refuse any negotiation, as UK PM Johnson is doing, can only be seen as mass murder. The failures of the USA in all wars within living memory should surely lead some sane member of the Biden régime to use brain power and decency to avoid this terrible headlong rush to destruction.
Hi. Thanks for you work nightvision!
Do you know how many missile Russian can have? Could we prove someone who buys this crap that Russia is running out of everything wrong?
I’m from Poland and unfortunately I have to admit that almost everything what Saker have said about Poles is correct. We are Russo phobic. We are also very naive and our elites are pure evil. I used to think that our politicians just fallowing orders from USA but now I see that it’s not always the case. I would like to add that people here have big hearts. Help for ukrainians are huge. Many Poles host them in their houses and provide them food, take day off to volunteering. Unfortunately big hearts plus being naive often leads to a disaster
All the complaints about slow Russian progress overlook the fact that NATO in its attack on Serbia took 77 days before they dared put a single soldier on the ground in Kosovo and the never put one in the rest of Serbia. 77 days take us to May 11 by my calculations. On that basis the Russian armed forces and their allies are doing rather well.
Serbian theatre was different to the Ukraine. Time didnt matter. Nato had got all the time in the world.
Serbian is surrounded by unfriendly western partners. Bordering with Nato countries. Air and land supremacy by Nato. Serbia was/ is like the mouse in a trap. Serbias geography is like a kamikaze caldron.
Serbia was cut of all supply lines.
Serbia didnt have even 10% of heavy like Ukraine is operating with
If Serbia would have that quantity of western manpads and air defense systems like ukraine complete Nato aggression could be easily managed with a possible serbian victory.
RUSSIA DOESNT HAVE THE LUXUS OF TIME with Ukraine because Ukraine is since couple of years Nato member fully integrated, educated, and supplied.
Serbia was/ is like the defenseless mouse in a trap, u can bomb until all eternity. No time pressure. Where should the mouse move or escape?
It surprises me that people still believe the dross trolled out by Bellend Twat (aka Bellingcat). If he was giving betting tips on sporting events, then most of his followers would be bankrupt by now.
As for the senior ranking officers of the Ukraine, it shows the differences between them and their Russian counterparts. The reason the Russains have taken a fair few casualties is because they are mostly in the thick of it with their boys. The Ukie officer situatiion reminds me of Blackadder Goes Forth i.e. Hauge in a tent far from the front lines sweeping large numbers of his troops off the map with a dust pan and brush.
The more the US focuses on Ukraine the less it can do anywhere else. It is the driving force even if Johnson-Truss-Wallace think they are the cheerleaders out in front. May 5 is Johnson’s Nemesis Day when his party sees how angry the UK voters are. US and UK have put obstacles in the way of UKR “refugees” entering their space and are loading Germany and Poland with these problems.
It is Western Europe than cannot survive Winter 2022-2023 in a state of war with restricted supply of fossil fuels and foodstuffs especially now Algeria is exposing Spain and Portugal to its displeasure over Morocco and US is creating serious difficulties there.
Election May 15 in NRW which is a real issue for Berlins with its very high non-German population and being 17 million people the largest Land election.
The NATO exercises are an issue for their so-called “Suwalki Gap” which is an issue for Belarus and Russia should Poland try a diversionary attack. – they said “North” and “East”
Odessa is no doubt a cesspit of NATO/SBS/SAS types which was linked to Mariupol and they counted on Turkey not closing The Straits.
Looking at the amount of air traffic into Rzeszow I simply cannot fathom how the cargoes move undetected across the frontier ???????
I just hope that Russia is taking every opportunity to guard the May Day celebrations, as this would be an ideal opportunity to strike Russia, in fact I would cancel them.
Do you know what you’re talking about?
I don’t think so.
What you’re proposing is an aberration, a show of cowardice Russia will never even think about it.
November 7, 1941 – World War II: Stalin leads the October Revolution Parade as German forces attack Moscow
On November 7, 1941, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin led the celebrations for the October Revolution in Moscow’s Red Square. In his speech, Stalin exhorted the soldiers in the parade as they were about to be sent out to battle. Many of them would be killed in the fighting for Moscow. The event took place just as German forces were closing in on the Soviet capital…
Germans were at the gates of Moscow, bombing non-stop, Stalin decided to evacuate the Russian government apparatus, however, he stayed behind in a show of force that impressed the Germans and the inhabitants of Moscow, who were massively evacuating before listening to Stalin’s reassuring voice, and stayed behind.
Not having a Victory Day celebration due to the war in Ukraine is unthinkable for Russia.
Hopefully they won’t read your post, they could shoot you for treason if you were Russian.
Or for saboteur if you are a foreigner.
A Georgian mercenary fighting for Azov was not so fortunate.
His before and after: (ie, missing a leg and a finger)
So here’s my question to all those starry-eyed young men who go off to fight a war that has nothing to do with the defense of their own country of birth. Such as this guy who now is missing half his left leg and his right ring finger.
Here’s the question I have for you:
Now that you’ve sacrificed body part for Ukriaine – who the hell is going to take care of your medical bills and your future life as a handicapped ex-Merc? You’re not a veteran of your own country’s war so they aren’t taking care of you. How about Zelinsky. WIll he fund your rehabilitation and your reeducation so you can function. Propably not as you’re young man and simple cannon fodder and Zee wouldn’t give you the time if the day if he saw you begging on the streets of London. How about the CEO and executives of Raytheon and Lockheed? How about Soros? Bill Gates. Klaus Schwab. Ursala ven der Leyden. Are any of this people going to take care of your future now that you are shot up and disabled for life?
The long and short answer: None of these people are going to give you the time of day. You played your part, you lost, now your jetsam.
So how is that sacrifice you made for Ukraine working out for you now and in the future.
My bet is eventually you will swallow a 9mm aperitif along with your last meal when you finally all it quits as none of those who are making obscene wealth by supplying people like you with lethal arms will give a damn about you, your disability, or your future. Sorry – but you and those like you are utter and complete fools.
It is most probably as you think. It is by design. It is Tzun su.If you can, find intervju of Oleg Matvejchev. It might be on YT but not sure, but it is eye opening and confirm your words. The problem is most people give opinions and do not know how wars are fought and won or how the general staff and leadership in Kremlin think. Make an effort in finding it. Matvehchev is in the echelons of power in Russia. People might think he is bluffing, but doubt it, because he is directing his words to russians to remain calm and understand what their president know what he is doing and that he will not sell out Russia. Cheers
@Nightvision: could you please follow up the Izium situation:
“The Ukr claim to have established control over the Lozovaya village & 2 other villages, north of #Kharkov as well as to have destroyed the Rus HQ”
The Ukros always claim a lot. If that is the case, it would only prove the slow approach is a bumerang and the arrival of more heavy weapons from western partners will further complicat the operation
This village was first “claimed” captured by Russia literally the day before (or 2 days at the most), which means that it was in fact contested and never captured by anyone. So Russia wasn’t holding it, it was a village in the gray zone and Ukraine took it and put a flag there and declared a major victory as if they pushed Russian forces back when in reality it’s just a village in the middle of the contest zone and Russia never held it
An update from the Russian Mod_
@ Amarynth & the Russian Mod.
Thanks for the update.
I am sure later we might get some specifics as to who these civilians are, if related to the Azov nazi trash or not.
Glad they are out of that hell on earth.
Nato and Ukros will open the Transnistria theatre soon.
The russian soldiers should be able to offer fierce resistance until reinforcement for Russia arrives.
If the Nazi Azov cum is able to offer such strong resistance over more than a month then the russian forces in Transnistra with the huge ammonition depot should be able as well.
The only problem i see in the slow the slow pace of advance of RF.
At this pace they will not reach Transnistra untill next year.
The person in charge of SMO re really convinced to have lots of time.
Thank you Nightvision as always for your updates without them I, and we I am sure, will be in the dark when it comes to details/actual actions on the ground.
Big picture may I propose such a scenario which I qualify it as pure hypothesis.
Russia and China anticipated the West’s plan in Donbass and in partnership they masterminded the current events:
Russian foreign reserve was stolen which in itself is a trap. The event destroyed the global faith in Dollar based wall street control fiat financial system once and for all. China extends 1.5 trillion Yuan of LOC to Russia so the burden of theft was born by the partnership.
RF is slow in destroying Donbass AFU formation. Perhaps the partners want NATO to get involved?
The concern of NATO involvement is never about NATO soldiers/firepower/armors etc but rather the risk of technical nukes.
What happens if, at the onset of NATO involvement, all military airfields of NATO are taken out by Zircons? You see at Zircon’s speed (say there is a tungsten plate in each of its warhead) the impact of each Zircon will be like a technical nuke and each Zircon will simply annihilate one airfield.
RF will not use technical nuke and NATO will have no platform to launch technical nuke so there is no risk of a nuke war. Of course NATO warships will also be taken care of by Zircons.
Then at the same time Glyziev will announce the commodity/gold based global south currency and China will dump their US treasuries. While at the same time those 100-200K of foot soldiers and armors of NATO are bombed to oblivion.
NATO/USA/$ will die all together.
There may be some advantages in the incursion into western Ukraine by western armies
– the west can invade western Ukraine and enter a war of attrition and the exact opposite of their intentions will occur – they will be the ones who will be weakened and worn down, Russia will outlast them
– At the same time their economies will collapse
– this is a double whammy to the west, their own making, you can see that they don’t know what they’re doing by looking at their economic warfare
This could be a trap where a controlled stalemate on the Novorussian border will attrite the west economically and militarily, create political crisis in their respective countries – exactly the effect that they are trying to force on Russia
I see this working, especially because Russian missiles cannot be shot down
I imagine that it will not take long for them to enter crisis – economic issues causing civil unrest in their populations, what is already in the pipeline for the west is savage enough
“Appear weak to your enemy when you are strong, appear strong to your enemy when you are weak” – Sun Tzu
Just some thoughts
There’s a saying along the lines of: Don’t interrupt your enemy/opponent when they’re messing up!
I absolutely agree with what you wrote. And that’s why Anglos will never join the fight themselves. They will continue to instigate, coerce, bribe and arm-twist OTHERS to do so.
British and American (U.S.) fighters have been captured by Russian forces in Ukraine. Who are these “Anglos” you mention, or do you really mean the “neocons” and their International Neocon hierarchy?
Anglosaxon hereditary oligarchy. Those people of who we never talk about. Neocons are at much lower level, as political comesars.
English commoners are completely out of picture. I do not see them responsible. Brainwashed or not.
“English commoners are completely out of picture. I do not see them responsible.”
History shows divine law is not as forgiving as we mortals. How many nations and civilizations were destroyed due to the deeds of a handful of bloodlines? A people are judged along with their elites.
Cunning elites are like the devils – they obtain “consent” of various types for their crimes. Their ideology is dominant and prevails even against reason and group self-preservation. The commoners way of life for centuries has been based on scraps from foreign loot and wars and miseries. They provide footsoldiers, a base of refuge and a legitimizing sea of ignorance among which the predators hide.
And does the creation of Sarmat give you the confidence we commoners will remain outside the picture of Judgment, whether directly responsible or not?