By Nightvision for the Saker Blog
Firstly, the biggest news at the forefront is that the Mariupol situation appears to be nearing a possible conclusion. We reported last time that one prominent source said Azovstal would be fully resolved by 4/30 (today), while Sladkov said days ago that Azov had about 9 days of food left, which by now would put them at maybe 6 days or less, by those estimations.
We also reported that negotiators had arrived and were settling in to the small villages around Mariupol. Now today there is a large, full blown UN / Red Cross operation under way to evacuate the civilians in the Azovstal factory.
Now as many have seen a family was the first to leave the Azovstal factory yesterday, and now today it’s being reported by Novosti that 25 people have been released, including 6 children. The interesting thing is that the first family released said there were “70+ others” left in the bunkers, though I’m unclear if they meant 70 people or 70 families (presuming it’s total people). This is in stark contrast to Azov’s claim that over ‘1000’ civilians were hiding beneath the factory. It’s clear that Azov likely lied to inflate the numbers for obvious reasons.
With the UN and Redcross involved, it’s unclear what the terms of the current negotiations are. Here’s one report:
“In Bezymenny (Novoazvsky district of the DPR), negotiations are underway regarding the evacuation of civilians from the territory of Azostal. Representatives of the UN and the IWC are participating.
Earlier, the Kremlin has already outlined its position on these negotiations – the evacuation of civilians can be easily carried out, the main obstacles to the evacuation are the Nazis themselves, who do not want to let go of the human shield.
Nobody is going to let the Nazis go, there will be no humanitarian corridors for them.
The only chance for them is to surrender.”
You can see dozens of evacuation buses there: https://twitter.com/uasupport999/status/1520465607422091264
A rough calculation of ~30 buses, with maybe ~30-50 people per bus could be enough for over 1000+ people, so either the original Azov civilian estimates were right OR the UN is really hoping to evacuate their Azov terrorists as well. At the moment Azov is pleading to at least evacuate the wounded and the wives/families of trapped Azov have been rallying now for the release of their militants along with the civilians as well:
Anything could happen but there’s a chance that the entire Azovstal saga could end in the next day or two. The plant appears surrounded as Russian forces have captured everything but the main complex where they’re all hiding, and though the remaining Azov/marine militants are said to be numbered in the 2000 range, upwards of 600+ or more of them are said to be wounded or incapacitated.
Head of the DPR Denis Pushilin believes it will all end very soon. He has stated: ‘“Very soon, I really count on it, the situation with Azovstal in Mariupol will be completed, and we will see a large number of mercenaries there,”– he said on the air of Channel One.’
Pushilin also announced large construction sites in Mariupol will start as soon as Azovstal is done, and DPR spokesman Basurin said that a park in memory of those killed in Mariupol might be laid out on the site of the former Azovstal factory complex.
Though videos still come out showing some Mariupol fighting, we were told that most of them are as much as 10 days old due to the timed release method of information so that the enemy does not see current RF troop movements, so the fighting likely has already ended, though Azov/Arestovich still claim that their fighters conduct “sorties” above ground “when they are able to” – whatever that means.
With that said, one amusing video was released of close quarter fighting which shows Russian marines storming a building while attempting to communicate with some of the foreign mercenaries trapped there in both English and French:
And on the topic of mercenaries, there’s been a deluge of new updates.
Not only was another British merc named Andrew Hill captured and interrogated:
But the first American mercenary death was announced:
While Russia also captured two British NGO workers near Zaporizhzhia:
And British press is now reporting on the death of Scott Sibley, a mercenary we reported on last time:
Also, there was one unconfirmed report that said:
“#IMPORTANT Russian Spetsnaz unit in #Kherson captured 2 Russian-speaking British #SAS operatives on April 21, after a leak of their position from #Kiev. They were conducting recon for #London (these are not mercenaries). Leak suspected from #Zelensky’s office or #Ukrainian MFA.”
This is not unbelievable as we’ve already reported last time that SAS is openly working in Kiev and elsewhere.
A Georgian mercenary fighting for Azov was not so fortunate.
His before and after:
And a Danish mercenary was reported killed
“When luck refused the “soldier of fortune” , a 25-year-old Danish mercenary died in Ukraine, where he fought as part of a foreign legion. It happened in Nikolaev, the military commander of TV channel TV 2 Rasmus Tantoldt reported.”
Some are in fact saying it’s this guy, but there is no confirmation:
Now to segue to some of the developments from last time regarding the possible upcoming NATO escalations in Ukraine. Russian intel agency head Naryshkin, who issued the statement last time regarding Poland’s planned incursion has also now stated that, “plans to deploy a Polish “peacekeeping contingent” in the western part of Ukraine is not a version, but intelligence information obtained from several reliable sources, the Foreign Intelligence Service explained.”
In short, he’s saying this is not speculation but an accurate report based on many sources.
Also: “Military expert Yuriy Kotenok talks about plans to bring Polish, Romanian and other military contingents to Ukraine under the legend of “exercises”. The decision has already been made. BTG will be covered from the air. Their task is to prevent Russia from completing the operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine.”
Unfortunately this is for Russian speakers only as there’s no subtitles here: https://bastyon.com/index?v=2000ace73f9745dd7511ac5dccdee93a635aafe127381eaf08e5a54d8db2a12a&video=1&ref=PARV591XENALBB5ApkR7WcQPhEZtLHfi2A
And a Ukrainian account has stated: “Our source in the OP said that the General Staff has already prepared a military campaign to neutralize the Russian group in Transnistria.”
While Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Defense, General Zavarzin, “called for missile strikes on headquarters in Kyiv and Lvov.”
And here’s one analyst’s take:
A strike force of NATO countries near the borders of Ukraine and Belarus – what is it for? Is it really about an ordinary peacekeeping mission?
In light of the latest information about the aspirations of Poland and other NATO members, several questions arise. Firstly, what contingent is now formed on the eastern borders of the bloc, and secondly, why are all these forces being accumulated?
It is impossible to accurately assess the grouping of NATO countries, drawn to the borders of the Republic of Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and Russia, having only information from open sources.
However, from what is known, a total contingent of 50,000 to 100,000 people can be inferred. This includes units deployed by Poland, and the American contingent, and units of various NATO countries deployed in the framework of exercises in the Baltic states. There is also information about a serious Romanian group in the Moldovan direction. Just as we wrote earlier, combat aircraft are also being transferred to Europe. In the shortest possible time, the size of the NATO contingent can be doubled.
NATO’s ultimate strategy on this issue is currently unclear, but several options could be considered. Firstly, this can be done for a banal intimidation of Russia and an attempt to put pressure on the course of a special operation in Ukraine, and secondly, in the West they perfectly understand that Ukraine as a country no longer exists and see its future on the principle of occupation sectors. And the third option is the most terrible, but the least likely: NATO decided to go all the way and, if lend-lease and hybrid warfare do not stop the Russians, then regular units of Western countries will step in. This, of course, is a 100% threat of the use of nuclear weapons. It looks utopian, but in 2022 everything is possible.”
And from Colonel Cassad:
“The main topic that worries many today is the adoption by the US Congress of the lend-lease program for Ukraine. Delivery of large batches of modern weapons is expected soon. The war will reach a new level, because now we will also have to fight with the American military industry. Deliveries of American heavy weapons are expected, including F-16 aircraft. Today we wrote that Ukraine is already preparing pilots for these machines. Here you need to understand once and for all, we are at war with NATO, where Ukraine is just cheap service personnel and cannon fodder.
Also on the Belarusian-Polish border, there is a transfer of a shock group of troops from Poland. The answer to this was the sending of Belarusian units to strengthen the border.”
And John Kirby yesterday: ‘US Defense Press Secretary John Kirby:
“Today I can announce that the United States has begun training the Ukrainian armed forces to use key weapons at US military bases in Germany.”’
On the topic of Lend Lease, it became a curious discovery that on the official U.S. Congress website, the date of the submission of Lend Lease to Congress was seen as 1/19/22.
So how is it that it was proposed a full month before Russia’s invasion on 2/24?
There are more military transfers being rushed to Ukraine: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1520170505516503040
And reports like the following:
“Kiev secretly sent Kharkiv cadets to the United States to learn to fly the F-16, which will soon enter service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine under lend-lease Kiev decided in advance to retrain its pilots for the NATO fleet. As it became known to Readovka, the cadets of the Kharkiv Higher Military School were sent to one of the European NATO countries and to the United States in early February for emergency retraining in the management of American F-16s. The cadets were taken directly from the 4th year classes. All of them were transported in complete secrecy. Thus, it is more likely that NATO, together with Kiev, knew about the imminent deployment of a special operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and tried to work ahead of the curve. The law passed the day before by the US Congress authorizing the lend-lease of heavy weapons to Ukraine apparently involves the supply, among other things, of American F-16 fighters. There is also information that the lend-lease announced by the United States was launched solely to legalize the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine. https://t.me/readovkanews/32369”
From a Ukrainian channel: “The Pentagon has begun planning military operations for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbas to contain the Russian army. The Ukrainian General Staff permanently hosts several dozen NATO generals in the status of military advisers who participate in the discussion and decision-making on key issues.”
“The General Staff permanently hosts several dozen NATO generals in the status of military advisers who participate in the discussion and decision-making on all key issues.”
So all of this brings me to the following big topic. Which is that there is a lot of conversation revolving around how the Russian SMO is going, with many people unable to reconcile the two opposing sides who both claim they are winning easily. Understandably this creates a strange paradoxical dichotomy where each side says they are smashing the other, and each side posts material that conveniently reflects their stated ‘strategy’ as evidence that everything is in fact going to plan.
i.e. Russia posts its advances and mass destruction of AFU units and says this is clear evidence of ongoing victory. And AFU posts its retreats and says that these are all strategic retreats and that Russia is in fact being both bled and led into a trap from which they will never emerge.
So I wanted to address this with some new material that can shed light and contextualize the U.S./Ukraine’s overall grand strategy.
In short, it is this: it is becoming increasingly clear that the grand strategy is to slowly abandon the Donbas, but in the process, slow down and attrition the Russian forces as much as possible, while simultaneously reconstituting a massively armed new NATO-standard army in the West.
Not only has NATO and U.S. both now released statements that they are readying for a “long war” of up to 10 years in Ukraine, but there are reports like the following:
“Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President (of Ukraine) is ready for a long war that will last 2-3 years. Kiev does not consider a possible defeat on the eastern front to be critical for Ukraine,
the main thing is that the battles for Donbas exhaust the Russian army and last for several months. Using time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive modern heavy weapons and will be able to launch a counteroffensive in the South of Ukraine.”
In a recent interview on his youtube channel, chief presidential advisor Arestovich openly confirms the above. In fact he plainly tells host Feigin that with all the new NATO equipment coming in, it will take them about 1 to 2 months max to arm a new army in the west, and that Ukraine will be ready to create mass counter-offensives from the west starting in mid to late June.
So in short, their entire strategy is to stall Russian forces in the east as much as possible by conducting slow, orderly retreats, even if it means eventually giving up the entire Donbas – in fact in the same interview Arestovich says that he fully expects Russia to encircle Kramatorsk/Slavyansk but that it will turn into “another Mariupol”, or so he hopes. And then by late June, even if Donbas is lost, they expect to be able to retake it with massive new Ukrainian offensives utilizing newly reconstituted reserves armed with full NATO arsenals, from German tanks to American F-16’s and everything in between.
On the RF side, some already accuse them of heavy ‘coping’ and excuse making, where the narrative is now shifting from “we’re winning in the Donbas” to “it’s ok if we lose the Donbas, we’ll retake it later.”
In fact Arestovich foresaw all of this, in his famously prescient 2017 interview he not only predicted the Russian war to happen around 2022, but he said there will be at least 2 wars, possibly 3, one following in around 2024, then another 2026+ or later. The reason being is that, he foresaw a stalemate with Russia taking Donbas but being drained and depleted, forcing to compromise in a treaty that leaves western Ukraine. Then Ukraine would get armed to the teeth by NATO and a new war would take place a year or two later, similar to Chechnya 1 and 2 where Russia had to go in to finish the job a second time.
So this brings me to the issue of military hardware and who is winning. The main problem for the Ukrainian side, is they rely entirely on the belief (real or not) that they have endless reserves of manpower. Arestovich and others have said, “our problems are opposite, we have endless manpower but no equipment, and Russia has endless equipment but not enough manpower.”
The chief problem here is the blanket assumption that Ukraine has endless reserves and high remaining morale. But there is increasing evidence that this is not the case. Not only are mass surrenders increasing, but each time they happen the troops complain of the same things, low morale, high desertion rates, resentment towards their commanders. And increasingly the troops are from the far west, old, and haggard which proves that Kiev is already tapping its absolute reserves from the west of the country, rather than local reserves held back at 2nd and 3rd echelon lines like near Pavlograd, Poltava, etc.
Secondly, there is increasing discontent amongst the populace. Today in the far west city of Khust, where these reserves are already being tapped as I just outlined, the wives, mothers, and family of soldiers being sent to the front virtually rebelled and started destroying the local military offices, and this is becoming increasingly common:
They don’t want any more war.
I already reported last time how the ‘grand popular uprising’ that Zelensky promised (read: hoped for) of the molotov-armed partisans was a complete failure. In fact now, more and more we’re seeing secret pro-Russian underground resistance cells forming in all the major cities who have released videos and are promising to help take the city once Russia arrives. Such cells now exist in Kharkov, Nikolayev, Odessa, and elsewhere:
And in Nikolayev, one report said: “According to available information, the elite of Nikolaev, businessmen, politicians, fellow bandits, are negotiating with the Russian side on the bloodless surrender of the city. Nobody wants to repeat the example of Mariupol
They ask for guarantees for the preservation of assets, business and participation in the political life of the city. There is a bargaining going on, while guarantees will not be provided to Kim, a different fate will await him.”
Though this is speculative, we know for a fact this very thing happened several times already, including a Kharkov mayor who was arrested for trying to peacefully hand over the city at the outset of the conflict.
Also, there is the belief that Ukraine maintains the giant pre-war numbers we were all given, but in fact it’s been greatly hidden by the authorities what vast amount of people, particularly military-aged men, have fled the country or gone into hiding, refusing service.
According to the Russian MOD almost 50,000 of AFU’s manpower has already been irrecoverably attritioned whether by KIA, MIA, WIA, POW, etc.
This was posted on a Ukrainian account: “Colleagues, we published that the Kremlin handed over lists of POWs, of which there are more than 4,000 thousand. For the Office of the President, this is a big problem, which they will not be able to keep silent about for a long time, in Kiev they are now looking for a formula on how to submit information to the public. Surrender is becoming a mass phenomenon, because of some brigade commanders who simply throw the guys on the tanks, while they themselves are tens of kilometers away from the fighting. Indicative in this regard is the case of the 93rd brigade, our soldiers got into a tactical encirclement , because of the tyranny of the command, and no one comes to their aid.”
Arestovich spoke on this in his newest interview where he said there has been a problem of mass morale loss of soldiers calling their relatives and saying that everything has gone to hell, but of course he continues to say that these soldiers are playing into the hands of Russian propaganda.
Today’s newest report is that 1000 AFU soldiers are now surrounded and trapped in Oskil, pushed against the bank of the Donetsk river without any vehicles to cross it. This could soon bring another 1000 POWs as well as the 2000 that will soon come from Azovstal.
Ukraine is losing 300-400 men per day to KIA and POW alone.
From RF MOD: “Losses of the Ukrainian side as a result of a special military operation of the RF Armed Forces on April 30, 2022
▪️During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 556 people killed, wounded and captured. The total loss of killed, wounded and captured in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, NSU and State Border Service is over 47 thousand people.
▪️According to the internal report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 6 tanks, 39 armored vehicles, 21 field artillery and mortars, 7 MLRS, 25 vehicles and special equipment and 23 UAVs were lost.”
Just look at today’s newest graphic losses (18+++):
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side continues to rely heavily on the belief that Russia is simply being attritioned faster, and this is what will lead to victory. Bellingcat reports that Russia has used up 70% of all its missiles. However, commentators were quickly to point out the following inconvenient fact:
The 2nd in command of Bellingcat said Russia would “collapse” by the coming Sunday, on March 4th.
The fact of the matter is, 50k of the AFU are gone, another 50k are trapped in Donbass and are slowly being grinded down. Millions have fled the country (Russia has taken 1+ million refugees alone, and much more went west, to europe and elsewhere) so we can expect that the vast majority of the fighting age males have left or gone underground.
Based on what we’re seeing on the frontlines, the most distant reserves already being used and depleted, the riots of family members in western Ukraine proving their last reserves are already being tapped, one can only conclude that Ukraine will not have anywhere near the numbers of fighters left to arm with all the incoming ‘NATO toys’.
On that note, read this illuminating new frontline report from a highly respected source, the famous Serb fighter in the Donbas, Dejan Beric (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dejan_Berić)
In short, the public is now being conditioned to move the goalposts such that losing Donbas no longer means a loss in the war, but is just a momentary strategic retreat until the mighty NATO wunderwaffens from the West allow the AFU to strike back with a vengeance.
Last time I reported the bridge being blown in Slavyansk, pictured with the purple circle on the left:
Now they’ve blown the bridge even further east (red circle) in preparation for the coming reality.
And strangely, U.S. officials are now claiming Russia is only “days” behind schedule in Donbas, when previously it was weeks if not months.
And finally, reports now indicate that the British expect Putin to formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9th and begin mass mobilization.
“The British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which is expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared.”
The British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which its expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared. pic.twitter.com/jOSvmMkDrw
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 29, 2022
Of course this could be complete nonsense and propaganda on their behalf, or it could be another case of predictive programming, self-fulfilling fantasy. Just like when they ‘predicted’ Russia would invade in february but in actuality pushed Ukraine to bring a massive army to the Donbas contact line, start shelling Donbas and Russian territory in order to force Russia to invade, here may be the same situation. This could be a sign that they plan to massively escalate by invading Transnistria (and perhaps western Ukraine) and forcing Putin to mobilize so they can again claim it was Russia’s plan to do it on the heroic May 9th all along.
In fact MSM is already conditioning the public with what a response might look like to Russian nuclear use:
To conclude, we see that Ukraine’s strategy is to try to bleed Russia in Donbas as much as possible before the eventual collapse and pull out, then ‘hope’ for huge amounts of reserves in the far west of the country to remain so they can be armed with NATO wunderwaffen for a big summer blockbuster Barbarossa offensive to unironically start by June 22.
By NATO’s own admission that they are ready to supply and stand with Ukraine for a war lasting “3 to 10 years”, we can infer that they understand Russia is in fact not running out of anything (be it manpower or supplies) any time soon, and that the war will in fact be long – the rest is just propaganda for public consumption.
There’s no more room for now to cover the likelihood or probability of any of these plans to work, perhaps next time. But for now I’ll leave you with one last stomach-turning story. In Hostomel, near Kiev, a Ukrainian video influencer decided to go out to one of the wrecked tanks, and found himself some remains of a ‘dead Russian soldier’, which he decided to cook and eat to great internet acclaim in his country.
(18+) for anyone with the stomach to watch:
Now whether this is a staged ‘stunt’ or not, the fact of the matter is on social media he was said to have gotten greatly positive feedback from many Ukrainians who urged others to go out and cannibalize dead Russian soldiers. This is just an insightful look into Ukrainian society and their inculcated, absolute inhuman hatred of Russians.
And of course there’s the unfortunate fact that experts have determined without a shadow of a doubt that the tank from which he foraged his unholy delicacy was in fact a Ukrainian T-64 (and not a Russian T-72), a tank Russia does not use (nor was DPR/LPR anywhere near Hostomel at any time).
You can draw the conclusions to what this means for the poor, attention-seeking, self-avowed cannibal.
thought I saw yesterday Odessa main airport runway had been bombed so whole airport now out of action???????
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Footage of the strike on Odessa: the Russian Aerospace Forces disabled the logistics terminal at the military airfield where a large batch of NATO weapons was stored.
According to the governor of the region, no casualties are to be deplored.
Odessa airport in southern Ukraine was hit on Saturday 30 April a Russian missile that destroyed the runway, causing no casualties, regional governor Maxim Marchenko said. Additional targets around the airport were also struck.
“Today the enemy struck from Crimea by a Bastion coastal defence missile system. The runway at Odessa airport was destroyed.
Airport runways are historically very easy to repair.
Take bulldozer, fill in hole.
If your plane can take a few bumps, then all you need is to make the gravel rather level.
If your plane can’t handle a short gravel section, then a quick asphalt patch can be laid.
Maybe something has changed in 21st century warfare, but in the past bombing a runway usually only put the airfield out of action for a few hours or maybe overnight. It was much more useful to bomb the hangers and repair shops and fuel tanks and ammo stores and other such facilities that planes require to keep flying. In WW2 it was possible to make an airfield effectively non-functional, but it usually wasn’t done by putting holes into runways.
I’m Swiss and don’t really speak English…..
So I apologize for the many mistakes.
Jacques Boaud, the Swiss secret service officer, can also be found here.
A very refreshing man……. he doesn’t just repeat the nonsense of the others.
There are other good articles on the war in Ukraine in Postil magazine.
So here is the latest from Jaques Baud, a French Swiss.
“Welsche” is the name given to people from the “Welsch” – French-speaking part of Switzerland.
Unless I misread, Baud has worked for both the Warsaw Pact and NATO. A form of Swiss neutrality?
Thanks Walter. I was surprised to see that Crimea was not legally part of Ukraine in 2014. Even wiki-pae agrees:
the ukes have been dug in for yrs.read sun tsu,an army that cannot move is doomed to destruction.
They are fighting to the last Ukrainian.
The question is, what they are doing after no Ukrainian is left.
The fantasies of some big counter offensive with Wunderwaffen from the West are equal to the fantasies of taking Crimea a year ago.
In my opinion, the West acts by reaction. They started sending artillery _after_ russia started to move their troops to Donbass and announce an artillery warfare. I do not think that there is some grand plan behind what they do.
They are in a pretty comfy position anyway, they want all Ukrainians to die and take as many Russians with them as possible. If that is their goal, they already achieved it eight years ago.
They’ll do what they always do, make a movie showing how they WON the war! If they make a corridor for Elensky’s escape he can play himself! (and play with himself!)
With total control over the minds of their populations there will be no talk of anything other than success.
Rather than “low moral” of the UAF, i would say “crushed moral” and mismanagement.
Imagine being told that war is like a Marvel superhero movies and that you are winning big… and then you arrive on the battlefield and run into an artillery shower with your instructor being safely 10km in the back.
Notice it is always called a war against Ukraine, while for Russia it is a necessary step to allow Ukraine to overcome its infestation by US installed governments, Nazi violent people in large numbers in the armed forces (helped by NATO) and NO way could this be called an independent, democratic or free and contented country. The outside interference in this land next to Russia has made life impossible for reasonable decent Ukrainians to live peacefully and provide rights to Russian-speaking citizens, although Russia and Ukraine have long had people of both countries passing between them, intermarrying and working .
The Russophobia induced in Ukraine and spread by lies to the “liberal democracies” of the West has ensured that the situation for many Ukrainians will worsen and so many will die unnecessarily, while the weapons and advice from alleged supporters of the Ukrainian people continue to ensure more misery and waste.
I read a lot of American blogs and their comments and read lots of comments to American videos. There has been a noticeable change in attitude in favor of Russia in the last week or so. As the Western propaganda seems to be falling apart, more and more Americans are beginning to complain on the internet.
Americans are beginning to loudly complain about the US spending all of this money that Biden wants to supply the Ukraine with weapons. The Republicans are now saying they want to do some investigation and research about whether these amounts of money are really necessary. They are stalling. Now saying they may want hearings and could be late June before any decision is made on spending the money.
More and more Scott Ritter is emerging as the go to guy on this war and he and Larry C. Johnson are becoming more and more prominent. You can help by promoting them.
Your average American does not want any part of this war. And the MSM experts are looking sillier and sillier as the days go by and Americans on the internet are really starting to complain. Many are really getting sarcastic about how bad the military analysis has been. And more and more people are beginning to accept the neo-Nazi infiltration of the Ukrainian army brass.
I have a friend who is Indian and a retired Captain for a major commercial airline. He notices the same trend on the Indian blogs. Major flip from neutral to pro Russian. Indian media has almost quit covering the war.
And I watch a British commentator who says that the British media is also changing its tune as it begins to sink in that Ukraine is being beaten badly.
Bem, sem intenção de tentar ser original vou relacionar aqui algumas considerações sobre a guerra tangenciando a questão militar propriamente dita e tentando me situar num contexto mais amplo.
As observações que farei serão numeradas somente para efeito de leitura e não tem a nada ver com o grau de importância que atribuo a cada uma delas.
Em outros comentários algumas pessoas até podem ter falado o que comentarei mas acho que não tem problema a redundância.
1 – Vamos começar pela intenção dos eua de reduzir a europa praticamente ao status de colônia ultramarina do império. Isso já está provocando uma crise no continente que só tende a se agravar na medida em que os eua apertam o garrote das sanções. Com isso estão destruindo o mercado que eles ainda teriam num momento em que não conseguem mais competir com a China. De que lhes valeria uma europa subjugada mas falida?
2 – Alguém chamaria a permanência do zelensky 2 na frança de uma vitória eleitoral? Quanto tempo vai levar para aquele palhaço ser acuado pela crise que já existe e que só tende a piorar e os reflexos disso sobre a disposição de bancar o zelensky 1?
3 – Me surpreendeu a fúria das mulheres ucranianas do vídeo do protesto conta a guerra. Ainda mais quando consideramos que a ucrânia é de fato uma brutal ditadura nazisionista que não tolera oposição. Quanto tempo até que tais manifestações escapem do controle?
4 – Pilotos saídos do jardim da infância direto para o cocpit de um jato que entrará em combate? Perspectiva muito animadora…
5 – Recuo tático ucraniano deixando para trás toneladas de armamento encaixotado? O recuo tático não é feito exatamente para que isso não aconteça?
6 – Me corrijam se eu estiver errado mas acho que essa é a primeira guerra em que um exército “lento” tem que avançar e ao mesmo tempo tirar a população da área dos combates. Além disso, tem que suprir essa população com uma operação logística incomum, já que ao invés de fugir da “invasão” ela foge para o lado do invasor. Isso deixa claro o que? Que uma parte considerável da população do país invadido não reconhece seu governo? Assim, de onde sairão as tais inesgotáveis reservas da ucrânia?
7 – Quanto tempo levará para que a animosidade já visível se torne crônica em relação aos refugiados ucranianos?
8 – E o mais importante e sobre o que ninguém fala: quem pagará ao ocidente a conta da guerra numa ucrânia falida e fragmentada? Os russos é que não. O ocidente tem condições de bancar essa aventura por anos sem quebrar para quebrar a Rússia?
9 – Os eua imaginam que podem sair dessa guerra da mesma forma que saíram da segunda guerra? Nada indica que levarão vantagem.
Fica então minha sugestão aos analistas para falar sobre quem pagará essa conta que certamente não cairá somente sobre o lombo dos ucranianos.
Well, without trying to be original, I will list here some considerations about the war, touching on the military issue itself and trying to place myself in a broader context.
The observations I will make will be numbered for reading purposes only and have nothing to do with the degree of importance I attach to each of them.
In other comments some people may have even said what I will comment but I think there is no problem with redundancy.
1 – Let’s start with the US intention to practically reduce Europe to the status of an overseas colony of the empire. This is already causing a crisis on the continent that will only get worse as the US tightens the grip on sanctions. As a result, they are destroying the market that they would still have at a time when they can no longer compete with China. What would a subjugated but bankrupt Europe do them?
2 – Would anyone call the permanence of zelensky 2 in france an electoral victory? How long will it take for that clown to be cornered by the crisis that already exists and that is only going to get worse and the reflexes of that on the willingness to play zelensky 1?
3 – I was surprised by the fury of Ukrainian women in the video of the protest against the war. Even more so when we consider that Ukraine is in fact a brutal Nazi dictatorship that does not tolerate opposition. How long until such demonstrations get out of control?
4 – Pilots from kindergarten straight into the cockpit of a jet that will go into combat? Very encouraging outlook…
5 – Ukrainian tactical retreat leaving behind tons of boxed weaponry? Isn’t the tactical retreat made just so that doesn’t happen?
6 – Correct me if I’m wrong but I think this is the first war in which a “slow” army has to advance and at the same time take the population out of the fighting area. In addition, it has to supply this population with an unusual logistical operation, since instead of fleeing the “invasion” it flees to the invader’s side. It makes clear what? That a considerable part of the population of the invaded country does not recognize its government? So, where will Ukraine’s inexhaustible reserves come from?
7 – How long will it take for the already visible animosity to become chronic towards the Ukrainian refugees?
8 – And the most important thing and what nobody talks about: who will pay the West the bill for the war in a bankrupt and fragmented Ukraine? The Russians are not. Can the West afford this adventure for years without breaking to break Russia?
9 – Does the USA imagine that they can get out of this war the same way they got out of the second war? Nothing indicates that they will take advantage.
So here’s my suggestion to analysts to talk about who will pay this bill that will certainly not fall on the Ukrainians alone.
1 – A subjugated and bankrupt Europe wouldn’t bother them in the least. Did it after WW1 or WW2? Not a bit. They profited big time by buying up industries, building their quisling networks and thus taking control of the countries. As for economic recovery, they relied on Germany. It worked.
2 – Don’t know the answer, but maybe the biggest story about the French clown is Jean-Michel Trogneux. :)
5 – Seems to be a very pertinent observation.
8 – The European tax-payer will pay, who else? Principally Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, etc. As Victoria Nuland stated correctly: Fuck the EU – again!
“…and found himself some remains of a ‘dead Russian soldier’, which he decided to cook and eat to great internet acclaim in his country. (18+) for anyone with the stomach to watch:”
I don’t think from just looking at him that he ‘found’ that; there’s dishonesty in the story because he obviously found it prior to what he shows on film; he can’t be trusted. What the video shows is that civilians in Ukraine know full well that Russians want to avoid harm to civilians. This young man’s demeanor demonstrates that. This young man – if he can eat a piece of supermarket meat and make you believe it’s “a soldier”, you know he’ll do it (and smile like in the video).
These attacks and sabotage operations inside the RF are becoming a huge embarrassment now. The inability to take the measures needed to prevent them has stopped being forgivable,and now verge on inexcusable neglect. As I reported the other day the Soviets were able with the use of military protection units to prevent just these types of attack from terrorist groups on the Alghan/Soviet border regions during the 1980’s. There is zero excuse for today seeing these type of attacks and sabotage operations almost every day in Russia. Someone in the government needs to get on the ball and prevent these attacks,or be held accountable for not doing so.
Just some of the latest:
Agreed. These humiliating incidents have become rather frequent. Add to that the sinking of the “Moskva”, and the very recent and devastating strike against high ranking officers in Izium. Mind you, I am not gloating over such casualties, in fact, this terrible war makes me feel rather depressed at times. However, I am worried about what response the political and military leadership in Moscow will eventually come up with, especially if the conclusion is made that Ukrainian forces have been relying on US/UK intelligence in these attacks.
What devastating strike against officers in Izyum? You’ve been reading too much comic-book level fake propaganda from Ukraine propagandist accounts. There was no strike on any high level officers.
I am referring to this piece of news:
Maj. Gen. Andrei Simonov was killed near the city of Izyum in the Kharkiv region, which is currently occupied by Russian forces, Ukrainian authorities said.
The Ukrainian military attacked a field command post of the Russian 2nd Army on Saturday, striking more than 30 Russian armored vehicles, including tanks, according to the paper.
Footage posted on social media appears to show the command post being bombarded by rockets, said the Kyiv Post.
The general was among 100 Russian soldiers killed in the attack, President Zellenskyy’s military adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said, according to The Kyiv Post.
Yeah, that’s fake. It never happened.
My question may be naive, but why would they bother to make such specific claims if they were obviously wrong when, for instance, Gen. Simonov could simply have a photo or, better still, a video of him published online so as to refute such propaganda? This is not meant to be a rhetorical question, I don’t see what blatant lies of that kind would hope to achieve, other than undermining the credibility of those spreading them.
Why would they bother to say Shoigu died, then when he came back they said he had a heart attack and was poisoned by Putin because he was trying to do a coup? Then they said Putin himself is dying, has Parkinsons, and is about to have cancer surgery soon. And on top of that have a list of over 40 “killed” Russian generals, none of whom are dead. Why would they do any of that? Do you know how fake propaganda works, or what the purpose of it is?
I believe if you check back through various Sitrep Z articles of yours, you will find the name ‘Andrew Brunner’ doing exactly what he is doing here, seeding doubts as to the Russian offensive.
Amarynth, if my memory serves me correct, mentioned the term ‘Concern Troll’.
Don’t feed the troll… ignoring them is the best cure of medicine.
How do you suggest can interested observers who don’t speak Russian discern between what is factually true and outright propaganda in this conflict? My assumption is that governments maintain a certain level of propaganda, at all times, and that in war, all sides involved will tweak the truth to a greater or lesser degree, in pursuit of their interests. It is precisely because I don’t believe everything I read in the newspapers why I am reading these reports. That does not mean, however, that I think everything reported or said in or by Western media and analysts has to be wrong all the time. For instance, when the US government said in February that Russia would soon attack Ukraine, I believed that this could be dismissed as disinformation or some form of psyop, yet with hindsight, it now appears that this prediction was correct.
I was not aware that Shoigu was claimed to have died. The reports about Putin’s ill health, for instance are something I have been taking with a grain of salt, noticing that such news were circulated years ago. Then again, he does seem to look somewhat less fit today, so there might be some truth to allegations that he is suffering from certain health problems and taking medication that have caused him to put on weight. Another example, the claims of Il-76s having been downed near Kiev: For as long as there are no images of the wreckage of these large aircraft, I remain highly skeptical of such reports.
Its actually easy in a way. If anyone tells you they know what Russia is going to do, well, they don’t. Russia has played this close to their chest and we just don’t know. In reality, we can only look at what has happened and draw conclusions from there.
Russia has not attacked the Ukraine. In fact over a million civilians have been moved to safety. Russia rebuilds amazingly after a village, town, city has been cleansed from Banderites. I have never seen such a thing in my life. Russia is running a Special Military Operation to cleanse the Ukraine from Nazi’s and to demilitarize the Ukraine in order to secure Russian security. This comes from the collective west absolutely rejecting and ignoring the fact that NATO pushed Russia’s back against the wall and threatened their security. Read back in the sitreps what a SMO means in Russian terms. Also in terms of the legal basis, Russia is assisting the two new republics and stopping the attacks on them.
Yes, will Russia spread military misinformation. Of course. And if they let us know what exactly they are going to do next, I would certainly consider them on the stupid side. Of course we won’t know excepting in hindsight.
But on the other hand, you can always consider the information from those that lied about Syria, Iraq, Iraq, WMD, Libya and the Viagra-fuelled army there, as having some validity all of a sudden now. They may just be lying to you again about the Ukraine. I don’t see evidence that they repented from their lies. In fact, they are scheming and lying and supplying weapons for a long war to beat the band. They want to rape Russia again. Take a bit of a look at the Chinese perspective. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1260676.shtml
Why would they bother to say a few Arabs operating from a cave planned and executed the complex Sept. 11 attacks?
Why would they bother to say LHO acting solo assassinated JFK?
Why would they bother to say Iraq had hidden WMD?
You remind me of an imbecile that told me that if the scamdemic was actually planned, it would be all over the news (as the bringers of truth) LOL.
Business Insider is a left wing publication that hates Trump and loves Zelensky, Biden, Obama and Soros. The Operation Mockingbird (C*IA) press in the USA, UK, Europe, 5 Eyes countries is all for Ukraine.
Arestovich’s “endless manpower but limited equipment” comment has been a recurring theme since the beginning of operations. Combine that with the “Lend-Lease” program signed around the start of the conflict, a projection from Arestovich’s mind comes into view. The “endless manpower” are NATO troops and the “limited equipment” issue is currently being resolved as planned long before the operation began. The West intends a full NATO assault on Russia with modern weapons. Ukraine’s role is to provide the battle field. But Russia has been one step ahead of them.
As always the West sticks to their plan and doubles down when things do not go their way. Russian has up to now operated a stimulate, observe then act model which consistently produces the same outcome of escalation for the West. It seems that Russian is now stimulating them to cross into Ukraine. When they do, they will be greeted by Russia on her own terms.
Pelosi arrived in Kiev by train!?
Why the hell the railway between Poland and Kiev is still working?
Now i can imagine how the M1A2SEP2 tanks will arrive in Kiev.
And as an added cherry on top few civilians.
A lot of such visits show, too, that civilians are not targeted by the Russians and that everybody in Ukraine knows it by now; it’s as simple as that, and so they go there a lot.
A surprise visit too, on a reserved train accompanied by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Gregory Meeks, Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, Rules Committee Chairman Jim McGovern and Rep. Jason Crow, afterwards Zelinsky giving a welcome speech inside, waving his head around and sounding incoherent. I watched the video, read the report but who was it actually, who was supposed to be surprised ?
Noticeably there were no Republicans. Republicans are sounding like they are going to be dragging their feet on the funding bill for Ukrainian weapons.
How do you know it was in Kiev and not a Movie Studio in Poland ?
A crucial question indeed. AFAIK Russia destroyed 9 transformer stations which should make the railroad network unusable for electrified locomotives, but diesel locs should work. The question is, does Ukraine( and the West) have enough diesel engines for the soviet rail distance system and fuel to transport not only some dignitaries, but weapons, ammunition and fuel to the front. I used to give Russia the benefit of the doubt when it came to the decision wether their (lack of ) actions are in fact a cunning move or taking the enemy not serious enough, or even just plain stupid negligence, but slowly I am forced to believe otherwise…
The “surprise visit” words stood out somehow, this explanation may have answered my above thought query.
Perhaps the writer of the RT news article knew something. The war has become blatant for what it is anyway, without Pelosi/Zed theatre.
So Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff were in Kiev “to say thank you for your fight for freedom.” Pelosi bowed slightly to Volodymyr Zelensky who was wearing running shoes.
Translation: “Thank-you for weakening Russia by sacrificing the interests of your people and having your land and your army destroyed. This is in the sole interest of the US faction known as the Neocons and perhaps the Micimatt complex.”
My guess is that Putin prepares a message for the 9th stating that the special operation is fulfilled and the eastern and southern parts are now free and finished integration into Russia. The repair’s work has started and no contracts to the west.
Russia will leave the western part of Ucraine as a battle field bombing the NATO troups to enter to hell if they (the west) do not start to negotiate and want the agrar fields to grow (which might lead to some hunger later).
Any acquisition of Transnistria where Russian peace troops are active might get answered rigorously with weapons in amounts and type not yet seen before. NATO numbers in manpower and weapons won’t make any difference. All only on Ucrainian ground in no time at all.
Sigh. Dumb west. Use brains please. War does not lead to peace but to defeat.
“Putin……Special operation is fullfiled?
Might be. Everything possible. What a victory…….
Today is May 2nd. Unless something dramatic happens I cannot see such a speech. You still have Ukraine forces on the front lines of Severodonetsk and Donetsk. They haven’t moved a centimeter. We seem to be a long ways away from full liberation.
I hope if is there is a speech on May 9th it is announcing at least partial mobilization.
We see now that ‘everybody’ believes the MSM, including the major leaders military or not. We see it on TV and newspapers. There’s only one solution then, right? A law to ensure that “standards” must be applied to be able to use the air waves, namely journalistic standards where “both sides” on any international issue must be shown, including guests from both sides of an issue shown on TV. They must have some ideas on how to do it with print media. We knew that the MSM indoctrinates readers and viewers. If it also indoctrinates essential authorities, however, then a law(s) to solve what the MSM does is urgent because, if the MSM misinforms on war issues, it can conceivably become the cause of a war (it turned out to be a much bigger problem).
I just saw Sen. Adam Schiff say on MSNBC that Ukraine must be able to join NATO (exactly what he said). It’s a good example of the above. With the MSM reports, he honestly believes that’s in the offing.
6 additional Kiev Military commanders indicted for war crimes. These commanders came from the
56.Motorized Infantry Brigade
25. Parachute (Airborne?) Brigade
Yep it’s going to be a fight til the last Ukrainian,Russia will win,Ukraine will be wrecked and it’s population decimated and in my eyes the USA and it’s European lap dogs will bear full responsibility for every death both Russian and Ukrainian,,a real shitshow
Great work Nightvision! Many thanks!
In the Russian social media the outlook of the Azovstal civilians that were readied for evacuation attracted attention. Why do these people look so clean (they certainly don’t look as if they were kept in a moist basement for a long time) and why are there even beauty models with exquisite dogs among them? Some commented that these ladies may have been there for the pleasure of the Azov leadership, others even suspect that under the heavy make-up Azov nazis may be hidden… Anyway, the evacuated civilians do not seem to suffered under a weeks long internment in Azovstal basements. So what is there going on?
I have a theory RAF plan is not to advance where it will be vulnerable with long flanks but to simply sit where they are in an optimal position to inflict losses on the enemy until Z is over thrown by an uprising of some kind or Ukraine surrenders.
If i played a game with you where we both start with $100 and first to $0 loses, if im losing $2 on each turn while your losing $10 i will win. Russia is in an optimal fire position and are inflicting loses on their enemy so their view is why advance and take a risk?
The danger for Russia is the US will soon be giving Ukraine some very long range missiles and artilery. They can hit the donbas from a car park in west ukraine with some of those missiles & US satellite data.
Russia has hypersonics to respond with but with Ukraine shooting & scooting on some of those mobile systems , im not sure its a substitute for troops there by advancing.
Im gussing those hypersonics are very expensive too and im sure they dont want an unexploded one landing somewhere for the US to inspect.
So maybe Russia will have no choice in the end but to advance to w ukraine that is the purpose behind the US giving those weapons.
It also means Poland cant then go in as Ukraine cant shoot from Polish held territory as that would be an act of war by Poland.
Hi r129, i believe also that Russia is fighting a war of attrition but against NATO. Right now Moscow is bleeding out NATO troops, weapons and money. In a war of attrition you have to ensure you inflict much more damage to the enemy than they inflict on you. And yes they appear to being doing just that.
De-Nazify and disarm were the stated objectives. I believe that Moscow in this stated objective actually means globally the Nazi’s have to be disarmed. I also agree with you that eventually Zelenski will be overthrown by his own people.
In the near future NATO will annex western Ukraine even though they insist on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, its a total circus run by clowns.
Colonel Cassad is only confirming what I stated in a former post, commenting on Ukraine’s ruling elite forecasting of a “long war” or several wars in the upcoming years. Their vaticination has no base on reality, and I mean, the reality of the Russian SMO unfolding as I write. However, their projections are good for business, and the US MIC long ago saw “Battlefield Ukraine” as an opportunity not to be missed, and started preparations early on, motioning their pimps in Congress to start enacting laws allowing their “lend-lease” (read theft of taxpayers money) monkey business with Ukraine.
Though there might be some strategic contemplations into their calculations, the driving principle guiding the sacrificing of hundreds of thousands of men in a war they knew from the beginning they will never win, is Greed. The gluttonous Jewish cabal behind the Zec are aiming to enrich their offshore bank accounts to the max, while draining Ukraine dry in human and otherwise capital.
Battlefield Ukraine: Greed the guiding principle
Militarized Europe is a storehouse of financial well-being of the US military-industrial complex
Militarized Europe is a storehouse of financial well-being of the US military-industrial complex.
It should come as no surprise that large-scale deliveries of Western weapons have begun to Ukraine. In fueling the conflict in Ukraine, in addition to pursuing geopolitical goals, there are a large share of economic goals. The conflict is as multifaceted as possible and the restart of the western military-industrial complex is one of its facets. To restart it, you need to get rid of the reserves, and the largest conflict since the Second World War is a great place to do this.
The US military-industrial complex is extremely interested in the conflict in Ukraine and the endless duration, the hostilities are deliberately prolonged by lobbyists of American arms companies. They are making every effort to ensure that the situation around the conflict remains uncertain for a long time, in this they are helped by the Pentagon and the huge machine of Western information propaganda.
The first goal is to drain Ukraine of all obsolete Soviet weapons from the countries of the former Eastern Bloc. In return, the countries of Eastern Europe will receive new analogues from Western weapons.
The second goal is to drain Ukraine of stale stocks (including old ones) in Western warehouses and provoke the release of new and larger batches. For example, at the moment, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have received more than 7,000 ATGMs from the United States. According to various estimates, the United States had from 20,000 to 25,000 units in warehouses, which means that more than a third of the reserves went to the needs of Ukraine. Therefore, it is necessary to produce as many new ATGMs and ammunition for them as possible, which means to put new production lines, because the output per year at the moment is limited to the figure of 6480 units per year with a delivery time of 32 months.
Rubbing and the most important goal is the militarization of Europe. European countries are already making adjustments to their military budgets, against the background of information hysteria and public fears, this is becoming a new need and lobbying of military companies is not even required. In parallel with this, NATO bases in Europe are increasing several times and weapons depots are replenished.
Militarized Europe is a storehouse of financial well-being of the US military-industrial complex. Yes, not all European countries rely on US products, but Washington’s share is huge and will increase. Recently, the Pentagon posted a request for information (RFI) from industry on a federal contract website, the goal is to find out the necessary information from all enterprises engaged in the production of air defense systems and equipment, anti-tank and anti-personnel weapons, coastal defense equipment, counter-battery systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as communication equipment. In fact, the collection of information from young military companies begins, for their future stimulation by Washington. Ukraine is a great place for testing new samples – a military showcase.
The military-industrial complex has been one of the most important drivers of the dollar since the Second World War. And judging by the incoming information, a “gold rush” for arms companies begins in the West. Everyone is lining up and waiting for new orders. Ukraine in this story is an important link that provokes a large-scale militarization of Europe, and it, in turn, will rock a new arms race and huge revenues for military companies and their lobbyists.
https://t.me/togarma301/5385 – zinc
What I can confirm is the state of Ukrainian society. I was posting on a different forum where the topic was the Azov battallion, and my comment was that they not only copy the symbols like the Wolfsangel, and what looks like the logo of the French car brand Peugeot (But of course is the 14th SS Division “Galizien”), but also the Nazi behaviour, and war crimes, and how many replies were “Fine with hat, may God bless those guys”
So if Gerasimov was hit bit artillery shrapnel, is it likely that he was located by US intelligence who then gave his coordinates to the Ukrainian artillery which attacked Gerasimov’s command post?
I reckon that story is BS. There’s absolutely no reason why Gerasimov would be anywhere near a front line.
Why repeat that sordid cannibalism story? It mars the whole article.
@ Jean-Marie L. on May 01, 2022 · at 3:34 pm EST/EDT
Why repeat that sordid cannibalism story? It mars the whole article.
And there was no need for it, since Nightvision himself presented evidence the “bone,” if there was any, came from a Ukrainian, not a Russian tank. Plus, by the time he posted it, the event had been debunked as fake in many news outlets, including Western ones, who were embarrassed to portray their “innocent nazis” as psycho beasts (no offense to the beasts).
If the intention was to depict the utter degeneration of Ukraine’s Russophobia, or the dastardly crimes committed by Ukronazis, we already had the video of the brother who witnessed the killing of the mother and child.
A totally unnecessary addition to an otherwise well thought-out write up.
I liked my little debunking here.
Most likely someone somewhere was shocked and horrified at the beastly thought of chewing either a bone of a Russian or a Ukrainian soldier, but all things pertinent great and small in significance find their pace on the table of the dear reader of the story of this war, and Ukraine and Russia essentially have the same root and belong together, so why waste time chewing on bones ?
It is clear btw, in terms of presenting views and commentaries, who of the dear readers are just, if not more keen on bolstering themselves. Never mind, manners maketh man, and all things duly appreciated on the table.
Pelosi’s visit to Ukraine. The comments are brutal. Americans are not happy about this.
No problem. The new Ministry of Truth will fix it.
Awesome news from Germany. A large group of protestors have confronted and condemned disgusting US puppet Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party. A video of the protest is available in the link below.
‘Warmonger & Liar’: Over 100 People Attempt to Disrupt Baerbock’s Ukraine Military Aid Speech
BERLIN (Sputnik) – About 150 demonstrators tried to disrupt the speech of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock regarding Ukraine in Germany’s northernmost state of Schleswig-Holstein, the Die Zeit newspaper reports.
Speaking in front of a crowd of about 1,000 people in Ahrensburg on Saturday, Baerbock voiced support for heavy weaponry deliveries to Ukraine.
Die Zeit said, citing police, that about 150 people tried to disrupt the foreign minister’s presentation, turning on sirens and shouting “warmonger” and “liar”.
According to the newspaper, another event with Baerbock’s participation was cancelled on Saturday out of security concerns.
Here is a separate video of another German protest, where a speaker notes that arms manufacturer Rheinmetall wants to send the Kiev regime 88 Leopard tanks. He points out that “88” is a curious number — a secret code for “Heil Hitler.”
I expect that it is a reference to the 88 millimeter cannon that armed Tiger and Panther tanks.
Operation Z: Military Correspondents of the Russian Spring
‼️The monument to the famous grandmother , who went out with the Soviet flag to the Ukrainian militants and refused to exchange the red banner for food, will be erected in the center of Mariupol, – the mayor of the city.
Earlier, they decided to immortalize Grandmother-Victory in Voronezh, the opening of the sculpture is planned for May 9, the flag was specially brought from the DPR.
Nightvision, once again, thank you so much for your sitreps. I think I understand from your very clear, precise and nuanced information that things might get a bit tough for Russia given that now, they are fighting NATO not the Ukraine. What I do have, however, is a serious, very serious belief that Russia not only has prevailed but will prevail here. However naive this sounds, this is now fight between good and evil. In my lifetime I would never ever have believed that the sheer evil of the USA, UK and the West would be unmasked in the way it has been. I am at a complete loss to understand why the hell international diplomats are unable to enter into dialogue with Russia to resolve this situation. Russia’s demands are not, in any way, unreasonable. Instead what we have is collective madness from the USA, UK, EU and the West in their determination to escalate the situation including the inclusion of Sweden and Finland into NATO. Collective madness is not conducive to clear and distinct decision making. As Tucker Carlson said, hysteria is now the language of society and it it is not conducive to a stable and prosperous society. I am on the wrong side of 60yrs+ but I have no problem with Russia using the nuclear option. If it saves humanity from this terrible, egregious, slow creep Nazi totalitarianism in the West which will blight the lives of everyone under it’s boot print, then I say Mr President Putin, deploy it if you need to. It will save the terrible future our young people have to err not look forward to. I know that Russia and China are true humanitarians and the world will be so much better if they prevail. I pray every night to God to continue to Bless President Putin Xi JingPing and President Orban in Hungary. The only 3 Presidents in the World with any sense of common human decency, logical thinking and rationality. God Bless them all and humanity. The meek will inherit the earth and so it will be.
The quickest way to end this war ‘nonsense’ would be to place all the leaders in a ring. Let them duke it out …
First: Vlad vs Joe
Second: Vlad vs Boris
Third: Vlad vs Emmanuel (the banksters tart)
Fourth: Vlad vs Justin and others (at same time)
Rules: Vlad the fox is only allowed a 2 minute break between bouts and no interval refreshments. The contestants can have as many refreshments as they desire and request time-out if desired.
Vlad allowed to negotiate suitable geo-political terms only after contestants are allowed enough time to regain full consciousness.
No CIA/MOSSAD/MI6 and mind-control hucksters or Banksters allowed in room during negotiating peace-settlement.
The outcome has already been determined:
Several conflicting thoughts:
1. Scott Ritter has an interesting article on RT. He agrees that Russia is winning and will win. But also says that Russia miscalculated how they would be received in Ukraine because the evidence is that Russian intelligence was based on false reporting by their intelligence sources in Ukraine. That 150 agents have been fired (I’ve heard arrested too) and the head arrested. I’ve heard this report on both pro and anti Russian sites. And since I’ve never seen an official Russian denial,I think it could very well be true. He says the Ukrainians infiltrated their service inside Ukraine and ran a sting on them. But if true or not,Russia pretty quickly went to Plan B and that doesn’t seem to be a problem today. That might also account for how the US seemed to know that the SMO was coming and had the Lend Lease bill ready in January.
2. What are Russia’s plans to win this war. Not really the war over Ukraine alone.But the war with the West/NATO. I don’t think a Russia like it is today can win. They need to remake their economy/society more like China’s. An economy based on important connections with the West,run by Oligarchs and other pro-Western elements can’t win that battle. Their main (only) concern is profit for themselves.Much of which they try to spend outside Russia. Russia will have to restructure that economy to strip the pro-Western elements from it. And make the only guiding principal the benefit to Russian strength. The economic elite of today can’t be trusted to do that. They also need to strip the Western mystique out of civil society. To stop using Western norms as the measuring stick for Russia. China has done a pretty good job of doing that.Russia needs to follow their example.The way we will see if they can win, is when we see them restructuring fully the economy/society to give them the ability to win.If not,well that will tell it’s own story I’m afraid.
The first result,Ukraine:
3. So what is so important about Ukraine? It has between 38-42 million people (we can probably figure a few million less today,because of refugees fleeing). Around 20% or more the population size of Russia. It’s larger in area than any country fully in Europe. And from a report I posted today here are the economic resources pre-SMO:
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
1st place in Europe in terms of explored recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe, 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons or 12% of world reserves);
2nd place in the world in terms of iron ore reserves (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of reserves of mercury ores;
3rd place in Europe (13th in the world) in terms of shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th place in the world (!!!) in terms of the total cost of natural resources per capita;
7th place in the world in terms of coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)
In the agricultural sector of Ukraine it is:
1st place in Europe in terms of arable land;
3rd place in the world in terms of black soil area (25% of the world volume);
1st place in the world in the export of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in production and 4th place in the export of barley;
3rd place in the world in production and 4th place in the export of corn;
4th place in the world in terms of the volume of potatoes grown;
5th place in the world in rye production;
5th place in the world in beekeeping production (75 thousand tons);
8th place in the world in wheat export;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th largest cheese exporter in the world
Ukraine in world industrial production:
1st place in Europe in ammonia production;
2nd place in Europe and 4th in the world in terms of the capacity of the gas transmission system (outgoing throughput capacity of the gas transmission system with the EU countries – 142.5 billion cubic meters of gas);
3rd place in Europe and 8th in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of the length of the railway network (21.7 thousand kilometers);
3rd place in the world (after the USA and France) in the production of locators and location equipment;
3rd place in the world in the export of pig iron
4th place in the world in the export of turbines for nuclear power plants;
4th place in the world in the market for the construction of launch vehicles and their commercial
use for launching payloads into orbit;
4th place in the world in the export of clays
4th place in the world in titanium export
8th place in the world in terms of export of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in terms of exports of military-industrial complex products;
10th place in the world in terms of steel production (32.4 million tons).
So as we can see Ukraine is an important area. And many,if not most of those resources are in the Russian speaking regions of Ukraine.
The SMO endgame:
4. So this is the hard part,what is the endgame? There are several guesses,but we just don’t know yet. Now what I think it should be,that is clearer. The South and East should be fully liberated and permanently separated from the present state of Ukraine. Those areas should be either united into a new Union state of Novorussia. That state would have a population of around 16-18 million people.Which after a few years of rebuilding should be given the choice of entry into the Russian Federation (my choice). Or,just united to the RF to start with.My thinking is that the denazifcation and decriminalization of the area will take a while. And to just take them immediately into the RF might be a problem at first. But the Kremlin hasn’t yet asked my opinion,so we’ll have to wait and see about that.
The rump Ukraine I believe should be formed of the remaining 16 Oblasts with a population of (pre-SMO) between 24-26 million people. A pro-Russian government should be installed, it made a Union state,and a part of the EAEU. A thorough long term denazifcation and decriminalization operation conducted. And after a generation of reeducation it should be admitted into the Russian Federation.To just admit the rump Ukraine directly into the RF might be even more problematic than directly admitting the Novorussian regions could be.But either way under no circumstances should those regions be allowed to fall under Western control ever again.That is far too much of a threat to Russia to permit that.
The SMO operation.
5.Like many others I’m happy/astonished at the way that with such a small force Russia has been able to conduct the SMO. But like many others I also feel that the forces are too small to finish the job. I wonder that if instead of using 10-12% of Russia’s military troops she was using 20% of her forces. Ukraine’s population is more than 20% as large as Russia’s. And her forces,plus those mercenaries and others that fight with them must be several times larger than the Russian forces in the SMO.I know we see a lot of young untrained, and also in many cases older troops among those killed captured or surrendered among the Ukrainian troops. But I wonder if they are holding back a substantial number of the better trained troops for the fight after the Donbass is liberated. Now that NATO is involving themselves more and more in Ukraine.Russia is going to need more troops to conduct the rest of this operation.
6.What can we make of this,is it just a provocation to stir trouble. Or is it a serious move by those states and NATO to actually get into the fighting.And maybe grab territory for themselves. I don’t doubt that the US wouldn’t mind if those states got involved as long as it didn’t really involve NATO as an organization. And in Poland’s case they hate Russia and like to poke the bear. But I’m not sure about the thinking that Poland wants to annex West Ukraine.Yes before WW2 it belonged to Poland.But even then the Polish ethnic population there was less than 18% of the population.The vast majority was ethnic Ukrainian,and they hated/hate Poles. Today the Polish population in West Ukraine can’t be more than 2% at best.If Poland tried to actually annex that region they’d face fierce resistance. And even without that,can you imagine Polish troops gazing at the Bandera statues and other monuments to the groups that slaughtered Poles during WW2 and the early post war period. That would not end well. I think there must be at least some sane people in the Polish regime that see’s the stupidity of any move to seize that territory for Poland.
As for Romania the issue is a bit different. They want to annex Moldova.Though I doubt they want the Transnistrian part of the region. That would be a bad problem for them. But I’m not sure they’ve thought of a couple of other problems they would have there.The Gagauz minority in Moldova are very jealous of their autonomy and tolerate rule by Moldova because the Moldovians are smart enough to leave them alone. I can’t say the Romanians would be that smart.And I see open fighting there.Then there is the Romanian desire to have not just Moldova but the parts of Odessa Oblast that used to belong to the old Bessarabia.The population in that area is heavily Russian speaking. There is no way either Russia,Novorussia,or even Ukraine would give it to Romania. Then lastly there is Russia.Moldova is a former Soviet Republic with ties to Russia. I doubt they would just permit a NATO state to annex it.I think we’d see an extension of the SMO to the Pruth River if that happened.So while we can never say never about anything,I doubt they will be that stupid to get involved in Moldova.Though Ukraine is another matter.We’ll have to wait and see on that one.
Putin and the Grandmother:
7. These two issues I’m going to link together. Everyone wants to know what if anything important will come from Putin’s Victory Day speech. Personally I’m hoping he makes a hard speech on this occasion,but in reality he might just give a regular Victory Day speech not giving any real information on what is in the future. I wouldn’t be overly surprised at that. I also think though that he needs to have much higher protection than normal there this time. And the guest lists and the crowd needs to be well checked before the event. It wouldn’t be a surprise to me if the Ukrainians or their supporters tried a provocation at that event.
Now to the issue of the heroic Grandmother with the Red Flag.I like millions of others was inspired and humbled by her actions. And there are countless memes and videos of her carrying the flag. But I’m worried about her. Where is she,is she safe and protected. She lived/lives near Kiev from what I can gather. Is she still there,and is she safe among the Banderaites if she is there. Has she been rescued and taken to safety? I worry that all the publicity that has been made of her actions may endanger her life.I wish we knew something about how she is now.She isn’t just an icon remember,but a real little elderly lady.
Excellent analysis, Uncle Bob. And I hope it’s true that those 150 Intelligence agents were fired/arrested. I also, still don’t understand how tanks and howitzers once inside Ukraine, are not destroyed immediately.
Red Babushka was moved to Russia and will appear at the May 9 Celebration per Saker a couple days ago.
Ukraine’s population is more than 20% as large as Russia’s. And her forces,plus those mercenaries and others that fight with them must be several times larger than the Russian forces in the SMO.
Ukraine has a population of about 30 Million at present. Russia has a population of 152 Million (Including Crimea)
The references to escalation to nuclear weapons alarms me. While the propaganda about a nuclear holacaust, both from radioactive fallout and the Nuclear Winter fantasy is over hyped, a nuclear war would destroy a lot of the industrial infastructure that enables the planet to support a population of nearly 8 billion people. Take the fertilizer plants offline along with the oil refineries that fuel the tractors, combined, trucks, locomotives and ships off line, then billions will die of starvation before any long term health effects appear. This will become Armageddon.
I don’t understand why America has incited and provoked this war. President Biden is a Senile Sock Puppet. Madeline Albright along with Hillary Clinton were psychopaths. President Obama was and remains overwhelmed by his hatred for White people. The Clinton and Biden administrations created America’s deep state bureaucracy. Out Technology Titans are so devoted to their Anthropogenic Global Warming Theology that they imagine that they will be living in a luxurious, ecological eutopia after most of the population has been culled.
….. I don’t understand why America has incited and provoked this war…..
Since 1991, Washington’s Grand Strategy has been to destabilize Europe. The last thing Washington wants is a stable and independent Europe.
Thanks for the update, love the site. Mainly a NPC, but thought I would throw this into the mix for consideration. 7 years of civil war in the Donbas was fine for Putin as it kept Ukraine from developing its own gas reserves (which are known to be huge). Also fine for the kleptocrat bootleggers importing ‘European Gas’ at a premium which was simply Russian gas recyled. Then shortly after “the big guy’ was inaugurated Z announced a plan to retake the Donbas and Crimea, backed by NATO and Nukes. Putin knows full well that Z is backed by Kolomoisky, who owns most of the Private Sector Oil and Gas companies (including Burisma) and suspects the plan is to; 1) declare Russia is going to invade 2)Goad them into coming into the Donbas as ‘peacekeepers’ and then announce pre-packed sanctions 3) keep Russia bottled up in the Donbas while heavily re-inforcing from the west to push a NATO barrier up to the original borders. 4) Bring in Chevron et al, exploit the gas reserves and divide the spoils with the Oligarchs (Not just Kolomoisky, Poroshenko is ‘allegedly’ behind Yuzgas NV which got the giant Yuzivska field in entirety when Shell pulled out due to the civil war). 5) Claim ownership of the pipelines supplying Europe for Ukie Gas and flood the market to destabilise the Russian Economy yet further. 6) Take control of all other Ukraine Resources for big Ag 7) continue building military port in Odessa etc.
Instead, Putin attacks through Belarus and Crimea, encircles the Donbas and secures all energy including Nukes. NATO and Zelensky have no plan B so keep going. Hence where we are.
Seems to me that if we put the ‘Follow the Money” out in the open – say by the EU declaring that they will set up a Sovereign Wealth Fund like Norway to manage all the gas for ALL the people of a neutral Ukraine, including the newly autonomous republics in the Donbas, then we can all get out of this mess. Only the Oligarchs, the MIC and ‘the big guy’ lose…
Did you know that Kolomoisky also has a lot of business interest in Russia as well? Oh yes, they play both sides of the fence.
Excellent SITREP, thanks.
Putin’s official policy from the start of the SMO was that any “normal” Ukrainian soldier (i.e., not a member of Azov or similar organization) who surrendered would not be held as a prisoner of war, but would be released to “return to his family”. I understand the value of such a policy in allowing Ukrainians to see that Russia’s fight is not with the Ukrainian people but only with the extremist elements that have risen to power/influence. However, given that Ukraine is forcibly conscripting military-age men, such a policy can work to Russia’s detriment in that there is a real danger that continuation of such a policy would allow for an almost endless resupply of already-trained, fresh troops to rejoin the fight against Russian forces. How is this situation going to be handled?
So many drone attacks on Russian soil, just read about drone attack on ships around Snake Island. Doesn’t bode well for EW jamming capabilities, if such ever existed…..we often hear from The Apartheid State how Russia’s jamming capabilities interferes with…..more bull shit, you either jam or not, not worth bragging about when drones, regardless of their ineffectiveness on the wars outcome, make successful hits and kill personel.
The fact that the drone factories in NATO countries still function is a mockery to statements about destroying “platforms”…..getting to be a bit of a tired joke.
There is no credible proof, other than ‘supposed’ footage from what seems to be from a Turkish drone. Whether it’s the same boat or multiple is also not determinable. Even if true, these are minor incidents that do not effect
the final result of the war. So get a grip…
Ammo dump explosions, fires at Armament manufactures, fires at chemical processing sites….no shortage of fires and explosions in Russia proper, easily verifiable because Russians post it on Telegram. I believe the Russian MOD mentioned the ships, its up on Cassad’s site. It happened, and these types of attacks are increasing……if One, is following along. Sorry if pointing it out makes One uneasy, I’m sure the RF MOD shares my concern.
Good eyewitness account from Moldova and Transnistria
I am always amazed at people like Joe9211, drive-by shooters who just drop their drivel feeling no need to ascertain why their statements will become real. I mean, where did this armchair general come from? Is he deep inside the enemy’s counsel? Has he read the CIA/MI6/Mossad plans for Russia?
On another note, I have grown to have a great deal of admiration for the Saker’s moderators, who have to put up with trash like this day and day out. They do a great job trimming the worse, I don’t want to even know what they expunge, I have to hold my desire to shoot an Iskander or a Kalibr on any stupid comment, like that one asking Russia to cancel the May 9 celebrations.
Moderators have to be commended, they have the patience of Job.
“…drive-by shooters who just drop their drivel….”
Verbal diarrhea is no different to physical diarrhea; it’s impossible for the afflicted to hold it back.
We are spoiled. NV does an amazing job We appreciate all the people trying to get the truth out including Patrick Lancaster, Graham Philips (though he took a verbal swipe at Patrick), Clif High, Dr. Jim Willie, George Webb though NV and I are not 100% sure about George, Intel Slava Z on Telegram and BioClandestine also on Telegram. BioClandestine is more on the bioweapons labs angle in Ukraine and connection to USA.
I wish I was a fly on the wall in Moscow to find out about the Canadian General and supposedly the U.S. General plus what is going on below in the Azovstal.
Where is Nightvision with the 05-02 Sitrep? It’s getting late!
I keep checking for it too!
Patience is virtue…
NV has his hands full, it can’t be easy filtering through whats actual news, versus fake pr.
In the same way which the Russians require to take time combing and clearing through each village/town/city without harming civilians and themselves, the same analogy can be applied to the news that’s coming out, which must be carefully handled, there are mines everywhere.
Patience is virtue…
More than patience, the issue is mental lazyness. We all have access to the same info, have more or less the same capacity to discern news and events, instead of waiting for someone else to do their thinking, how about furthering their own ideas and analysis on the information they process?
They can use other people’s views as a point of reference, compare them to their own, not wait to be spoonfed the work of others.
Just my humble opinion.
Dear friend, we are all good musicians individually, but what makes this orchestra sound perfect is the simplicity and elegance that its director imparts to it and every time he plays a piece it becomes a masterpiece of knowledge that we all look forward to impatience
where is NV with the 05-03 Sitrep ???? I worry….whats happen ?? we on saker can ” digest anything ……
OMG/B don’t you bother reading? Lone Wolf answered this question yesterday. Hint: scroll up.
The more I read and hear from that hellhole called Ukraine, the more I have the opinion : Just flatten it, everything and everybody. The birth of Ukraine was a colossal blunder by Krustjev, he did his origin country a bear service. I am sure the Russians will weed it out, no long and comfy stay in Siberia, up against a wall. End. The Nazi idea must be eradicated in the harshest fashion possible.
It is stated or hinted in this Sitrep that the majority of the Ukrainians are having strong second thoughts about Zelensky their president (and after they see his high heels dance video…).
“…hellhole called Ukraine…the more I have the opinion: Just flatten it, everything and everybody.”
No need to join the Nazis!
“Anemic” efforts, says CNN.
“Russian battlefield effort ‘anemic’
Following a series of military and logistical setbacks, Moscow has concentrated efforts on the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, which has been on the frontline of the Russia-Ukraine conflict since 2014.” -CNN
Nightvision to the next Sitrep: is this Putin’s judo response to threat on Transnistria?
“The armed forces of Belarus began sudden large-scale drills on Wednesday [- -].
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko spoke to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and the two discussed the Russian operation in Ukraine, among other issues, according to official statements.” /Reuters) https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-05-04/belarus-says-surprise-army-drills-no-threat-to-neighbours-tass
I should preface this by stating that I want Russia to win quickly, for the sake of Russia, Ukraine, and my own country, the United States.
I am not a ‘concern troll’ (just saw that somewhere). That said, there is a recent repost, with some comments, on the latest from Strelkov, titled: ‘So Far Strelkov’s Pessimistic Predictions for Donbass Battle Are Holding Up 100%’. I won’t put the link, since I’ve gotten the impression that will cause my comment to be trashed. There are a lot of details, but most analysis of this type focuses on one thing … Russia needs more men.
My question for ‘Nightvision’, since he seems to me to be a realist (although on the side of Russia of course): If Russia begins a partial (full, does not seem realistic) mobilization, how long would it take to make a difference, and how many additional men would be sent into battle?
I’ve seen many claims today that the Canadian rapist General was caught in a sewer pipe trying to escape azovostal in the last few days.
any evidence that this is true, and that Russia actually has him?
Asked again and again, in some quarters. Why doesn’t Russia take out the bridges (rail) over the Dnieper? There must be a reason, good or bad, but nowhere have I found a plausible explanation. There is video of a rail car from Poland arriving at Kharkov. Does Russia want to uses the bridges itself … at some later point?
Was the Canadian General vaxxing Canadian troops to test the vaxxes from Azovstal? When is the next update?
This guy is worried:
US Heavy Artillery Is Already in Ukraine, Crews Trained
Along with 180,000 shells and counter-battery radars
Will Russia finally take out the Dnieper bridges?
MIRACLE! 69 Days and 2150 Missiles Into the War Russia Hits a Dnieper Bridge for the SECOND Time
0.1% of the missiles expended so far have gone after the most obvious and most strategic targets in the country