A lot of very big scoops and important updates today.
The biggest news of this cycle is that yesterday was one of the single worst days of the conflict so far for the UAF: in a single day, the UAF lost over 1,100 people total as killed, wounded, or captured.
This is in large part due to massive strikes on various transportation/reinforcement hubs such as Dnipro and Nikolayev, which have taken out an estimated 200-300. As mentioned before due to strict new laws, Ukrainians are not allowed to film or report accurately on this, but on social media channels many “remembrances” from the families of the troops lost have appeared, verifying the damage.
Dnipro has become the major logistics/resupply/reinforcement hub from western Ukraine. Everything going to the cauldron has to pass through there. And Russian reports indicate a lot of the new weaponry and mercenary troops were hit in major Dnipro strikes.
On top of this another estimated 200-300 have surrendered in Mariupol and many more are due to surrender soon. This happened in several phases. Firstly a huge ‘breakout’ was orchestrated by the trapped Marines of the UAF where they took 30-50 civilian vehicles plus some remaining light armor and put ‘Z’ signs on them to try and trick Russian troops, then tried to storm out of Mariupol towards the north as high command in Kiev promised them support if they can just make it towards Zaporizhzhia oblast. But RF had intercepted every part of their plan and captured/killed all of them.
Here Wargonzo shows the destroyed vehicles they used and the aftermath of the escape battle:
Then, separate from that group, another large group of Marines surrendered. Videos here:
Not to mention several groups surrendered on the Lugansk axis: https://www.bitchute.com/video/V5CZputaCLJJ/
And dozens of troops were liquidated in battles along the Rubizhnoe / Lugansk axis (graphic 18+)
And Chechens captured/killed a bunch in Mariupol as well:
Meanwhile some of the remaining Marines trapped in the Illych Plant have made videos
1/3 The last video recorded by the last Ukronazis from the cellars of the Azovstal plant. In the video, a Ukrainian marine says "Glory to Ukraine" in every sentence, but there is no response from his colleagues. He says that they have not lost a single position and will fight pic.twitter.com/SUEXkCcJXC
— Victor (@Vick_top55) April 12, 2022
And here’s a Russian soldier giving more details on the foreign mercenaries
The most interesting bit of info though, is that we have the first confirmation of foreign mercenaries captured amongst the surrendered in Mariupol. ‘Famous’ British mercenary Cossackgundi, real name Aiden Aslin, who fought for the YPG for years in Syria, had his phone call intercepted where he cried about the likelihood of being ‘used for propaganda’ once he’s captured.
Phone call: https://twitter.com/MapsUkraine/status/1513754839121018887
His relatives running his social media account broke the bad news to his tens of thousands of followers:
We’ve gotten word from Johnny. “It’s been 48 days, we tried our best to defend Mariupol but we have no choice but to surrender to Russian forces. We have no food and no ammunition. It’s been a pleasure everyone, I hope this war ends soon.””
At the same time, a video featuring an Afghani mercenary has also appeared: https://twitter.com/MapsUkraine/status/1513841197302919174
“With the following information: “#MARIUPOL #NEW 37 Afghan special forces from the Afghanistan Ghani government are embedded with Azov and stuck in Azovstal. After American withdrawal from Afghanistan they were send to Ukraine by the Americans as PMC.
reports that the Afghani special forces have requested a safe corridor with the DPR units in Mariupol City, however the Azov militants are withholding the Afghanis from leaving.”
By the way here’s what Wargonzo himself reports on the big breakthrough/escape that the Ukr marines attempted:
“On a breakthrough from Mariupol. There are many rumors and discrepancies. Here’s what the @wargonzo project knows, I’m breaking it down into numbers and numbers.
At the time of the breakthrough, there were about 1,500 neo-Nazis (Azov militants and AFU fighters) at the Ilyich plant.
Of these, about 800 were going to go for a breakthrough in the first column, the rest had to go out along the corridor cut by them.
The column consisted of about 120 pieces of equipment, including automobiles. At the head was a tank, 2 Gvozdika self-propelled guns and up to 10 infantry fighting vehicles, as well as MTLBs, armored cars and trucks.
More than 100 Ukrainian marines surrendered. Including the political officer of the 36th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
More than half of those who were going to break through retreated back to the plant. Several dozen were destroyed by artillery strikes of the NM DPR. Up to 10 groups of 3-4 people were scattered and tried to seep through the environment. The search and elimination operation continues.
Hence the data on the second smaller breakthrough. We are talking about these wandering groups, which the special forces and fighters at posts enter into battle with if they are detected. Hence, a more thorough check of the car on the Volnovakha-Mariupol highway.
So no panic.”
He also reports about 2 retired American “officers” trapped there. Could this be the general everyone is talking about?
“⚡️”Azov” can eliminate 2 US officers in Mariupol⚡️
According to the @wargonzo project from sources on the Donbas frontline, based on an analysis of radio intercepts of enemy communications, there are at least two high-ranking retired American officers in the air raid shelters at Azov-Stal.
According to our sources, they entered Mariupol together with PMC “Academy” and most likely are not active employees of the Pentagon. However, at the same time they are extremely important persons for Washington.
“These officers are aware of many covert US operations in third countries and are the bearer of information that is extremely sensitive to Washington,” a source familiar with the analysis of radio intercepts told the @wargonzo project.
It is also noted that in order to conceal this “sensitive information”, the American intelligence services are ready to order the Azov militants to eliminate these two officers. Whether they are alive at the moment is not yet known for sure.”
With all this news, the end really seems in sight for Mariupol. Troops continue advancing, having fully captured the port and now in the Primorski district in southwest Mariupol. Pretty much all that is left is the Azovstal factory, the Illych factory north of it in the Kalmiuski district, and this last stretch of city in the SW by the port. It’s likely they will wait until the capture of this final piece before focusing fully on the two factory positions and deciding on how to deal with it or whether it should be smoked out in some way.
Meanwhile Basurin has denied the usage of chem weapons but has stated the DPR forces are instead using ‘flamethrowers’ to burn out the trapped Azovs. Although it appears he’s referring to the RPO-Shmel thermobaric launcher, and not the classic flamethrower most people imagine.
Also this information is unconfirmed but this is the rumor going around:
“The Nazi drowning operation is said to begin today in Mariupol..
At least ten fire engines to be either on the road or already at the factory to start pumping water from the river or sea and pumping water to above-ground ventilation shafts that carry fresh air to the cavernous network of tunnels below the Azovstal metallurgical complex..
If Azov close the ventilation shafts, they will drown within a few days. If they do not close the ventilation shafts, they will drown in a few days. In any case, the siege of the factory will be terminated in such a way that the factory itself can remain intact..”
In other news Russian MOD has announced the destruction of the S-300 system supplied by Slovakia
There are some conflicting reports because they said it was destroyed south of Dnipro, but there are videos of a new S-300 system also destroyed around Kiev that claim a Russian special forces unit destroyed it on the ground: https://www.bitchute.com/video/N0mxvnYVX15z/
Could be part of the same system, or something else, hard to tell for now.
Russian MOD has also announced another use of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile to destroy a very fortified underground command center of the AFU south of Kramatorsk. There have been many debates here whether a hypersonic missile can be used as a bunker buster, but clearly Russia is using it as such successfully.
Kadyrov has also stated that all Ukraine including Kiev will be taken. https://news.yahoo.com/chechen-chief-kadyrov-says-russian-003543233.html
Whether one wants to regard that as simple braggadocio or truth, we must understand that not only is that a distinct possibility but is also likely. Too many people have now been propagandized by the west to believe Russia somehow “failed” and is incapable of taking the western part of the country, but that is not even close to reality. Russia is not capable of taking it all at the same time from 5 different fronts. There’s a huge difference and distinction there. But once Donbass and everything east of the Dnieper is cleared, Russia can and likely will take the rest with concentrated forces. There will likely then be only 2 fronts, one coming up from the south that will cut off Odessa and take Nikolayev and one that returns from the north into Kiev. But we’ll save that for another time as either way that’s far off in the future.
In logistical news, Poland has reportedly begun its shipment of (supposedly) 100 T-72 tanks and Bmp-1s to Ukraine. While Australia ships Bushmasters https://youtu.be/hFmMVL5NTNg
In other interesting news which shows that Turkey’s “closing of the Bosphorous” straits was not what it seemed, and was in fact a more than subtle blow against NATO, Turkish defense minister has confirmed that Turkey is strictly prohibiting any NATO ships from passing the straits as well.
“Turkey will not let NATO warships into the Black Sea,” said Minister of Defense of this country Hulusi Akar. At the same time, he referred to the Montreux Convention and said that the passage would be closed to warships of countries that do not have access to the Black Sea, A Haber TV channel reports.
Akar also admitted that the presence of mines in the sea could be deliberate: they could have been fired as part of a plan to pressure Ankara to let NATO minesweepers into the Black Sea, which is contrary to the Montreux Convention.
“We have a suspicion that the mines were deliberately introduced. Perhaps they were fired as part of some plan to put pressure on us in order to let NATO minesweepers [through the straits] into the Black Sea. But we are committed to the rules of the Montreux [Convention] and do not Let warships enter the Black Sea,” the minister said.
So much for NATO solidarity.
Also, the first formal appeal for the following: “In the State Duma of Russia, Crimean deputy Mikhail Sheremet today proposed to unite the Republic of Crimea with the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions into the Tauride province within the Russian Federation. “Residents of the regions do not seem to mind – they raise Russian flags everywhere and complain about the attitude of the Ukrainian authorities.”
American Secretary of Defense Lloyd addresses Ukrainian troops: https://twitter.com/SecDef/status/1513205552700174340
This comes on the heels of new revelations of how deeply embedded U.S. and NATO command structures (and troops) are in Ukraine. A French journalist here describes what he saw in his time in Ukraine: https://www.bitchute.com/video/aVZeyycQgXBk/ (video with translations)
In short, he says he was shocked to see American generals running the entire show on the ground, and he says the names of them will be revealed in his new exposé in the French Figaro newspaper this week.
This is further proof that this conflict is truly NATO vs. Russia, and NATO is losing badly.
Another report states: “the United States is moving its advanced headquarters units to the western borders of Ukraine. In particular, the 5th Corps is being relocated. This suggests that it is not the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that controls military operations, but NATO officers. And we are at war not with some puppet regime in Kiev, but with the collective West.”
Of course as things progress towards a potential showdown, we continue to hear how badly unprepared NATO really is: https://twitter.com/Navsteva/status/1513149802527313929
But a new 8 mile convoy of Russian reinforcements is heading towards the northern front: https://twitter.com/Dr_ShahidPk/status/1513115975847223296
And other videos pour in of the long lines of Russian reinforcements in preparation for Phase 2
By the way, we were told to believe that these same Russian troops were “out of ammo, fuel, food” etc. Only further proof of the utter laughable propaganda from the west and Ukraine.
And to speak a little more on Phase 2, as continuation of the last report. Here is some further corroboration of things I’ve been saying:
Mi-6 warned the Office of the President and the General Staff that Russia is changing the tactics of warfare, now there will be no deep breakthroughs into the interior of Ukraine, but a methodical sweep of squares with phased campaigns. The new commander of the Russian troops will use the experience of the war in Syria, transforming it under Ukraine, in order to achieve success in specific military operations.”
There is a video that is a must-watch as companion piece to the last SitRep where we discussed the Fort Benning internal U.S. Army report about the superiorities that Russian BTGs have over American equivalent BCTs.
This video is a must watch from about the 27 minute mark to the end https://youtu.be/_CMby_WPjk4?t=1578
This army specialist gives a talk to West Point, detailing his discoveries and insights into Russian operations in Ukraine. He basically confirms every single point of the Fort Benning report but in greater detail and with explanatory visual aids, etc.
Some of the highlights of his presentation:
- Russia has the most advanced and dense, data-linked air defense on earthenware
- In a war against Russia, U.S. army cannot expect much air assistance for at least the first several weeks. Even stealth aircraft will not be of much use for various reasons he explains
- Russian EW (electronic warfare) is much more advanced and more ‘combat-ized’ than in the U.S. RF utilizes it in combat squads whereas U.S. barely has any and only at the divisional level
- Russian EW shuts down all communications in huge areas along the front, no cellphones, military radios etc. They break GPS links with drones, making them useless and can even fry the fuses on artillery shells midflight.
- U.S. army produces 10x the frequency emissions of a Ukrainian brigade, which would make it extremely visible to all sorts of Russian EW, drones, advanced weapons
- Russia has far more artillery than U.S. and far greater variety of munition types
And there’s much more.
And here’s another corroboration of what I wrote previously, about how artillery is the only real effective force Ukraine has left, and is how Ukraine has created the vast majority of its kills against Russian forces. Pretty much all the western supplied weapons have been proven near worthless and the legacy soviet artillery systems continue to be the workhorses creating results. https://voenhronika.ru/publ/vojna_na_ukraine/artillerija_glavnaja_opora_vsu_zachem_na_ukraine_gotovjat_tysjachi_minometnykh_raschetov_dlja_letnikh_bojov_2022/60-1-0-11858
As for NATO and the U.S., many people don’t seem to know that the U.S. is really not as trained or powerful as they’d like you to believe. I’ve previously highlighted how in the past month alone the U.S. has almost suffered more aircraft losses than Russia, and U.S. is not even in a war. Multiple F-22, F-35, F-18s, Awacs, and Ospreys all lost in the last month. Another good example is, the U.S. has held tank competitions in Europe for the past decade called the Strong Europe Tank Challenge
You can check the results yourself. The highest that the U.S. team ever scored was 3rd place. Other years they were 6th and 7th place, damn-near last place – bottom of the barrel.
Meanwhile, in Russia’s own Tank Biathlon hosted as part of its International Army Games (over 30 countries), here are Russia’s results for the last few years https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tank_biathlon
Gold in every single year.
And as many of you have probably seen several years ago India, operating the Russian Su-30’s, badly humiliated and dominated the British RAF piloting NATO’s most advanced ‘Typhoon’ jets.
You can see many articles on this https://www.rediff.com/news/report/defence-news-iaf-sukhoi-vs-raf-typhoon-controversy-in-the-skies/20150811.htm
The most shocking part about the humiliation is the fact that there were different rounds, first 1v1, then 2v2, and then 2v1 of each variety. Not only did India win with a 12-0 perfect score, but even when 1 Indian Su-30mki faced off against 2 simultaneous Eurofighter Typhoons, it beat them both 2 on 1.
But the western public is so propagandized they can’t even imagine that their equipment might be inferior, or worse – that their actual personnel may be inferior to those of other ‘lesser’ countries.
What most people don’t know, and wouldn’t know unless they followed the Ukraine events intimately since the 2014 days, is that when U.S. instructors first started pouring in, in the subsequent years, they were often viewed as laughing stocks by the Ukrainian veterans of the Donbass war. They felt they had nothing to learn from the “elite” U.S. instructors and in fact knew more about combat/warfare than they did.
The fact of the matter is, many Ukrainian troops are much more experienced and trained than even U.S. equivalent troops, AND the Ukrainian troops are better armed. This fact is corroborated by the video posted above in the West Point presentation, where he explains that most U.S. units don’t even have anti-aircraft systems and even Manpads in the modern U.S. army are in fact not widespread. There are videos like this one: https://www.bitchute.com/video/UUidj4zPmDAV/
Which show a Georgian legion in Ukraine, and they are FAR better armed than any U.S. equivalent army combat unit. They have every of the latest weapons, bristling with firepower. There are other photos showing 4 soldiers, each one of them armed with a manpad of a different type. The fact is, Ukraine is so flush with advanced ‘western’ weaponry that many of their teams are simply armed better than any standard western counterpart.
So this goes back to the concept that Russia is truly fighting not only a NATO equivalent force here, but arguably a force stronger than most NATO countries. The only thing Ukraine is missing is the U.S. airforce, which is at the end of the day by far the most powerful and important weapon the U.S. has. In every other category U.S. stands no chance against Russia.
I’ll leave with this map of the Donbass cauldron that can give a good idea of the force dispositions there. The circled red is where the Kinzhal was said to have struck a command bunker by the MOD. If you consider each one of those blue crosses as a company of about 300 men, it would roughly give a disposition of 40-50k in the cauldron. If you believe the higher figures as Basurin himself has stated over 90-100k for the cauldron, then count each blue stroke as a battalion.
The white lines represent breakthroughs, like the one south of Niu York (north of Donetsk city) and near Svitlodark towards Bakhmut by LPR forces. At the NW end where you see Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, Russian forces are pushing in towards Krestyshche. But for the most part not much progress is expected until Phase 2 begins in full. With all the things happening in Mariupol now, that finally seems to be closing in.
accidentally posted a video twice. Here’s the video of surrendering Lugansk axis troops
I think the captives ought to be put to use cleaning up and repairing the damage their forces caused. However if any of them were known to torture or kill captives, and there is proof, then they should be put to death.
I can only but agree.
they’re already doing that in some places like Mariupol it seems
Thanks, Nightvision! I couldn’t wait for your latest SitRep! By the way, the tank ‘friendly fire’ incident everyone’s talking about. You think it was friendly fire or were Russians in that other tank?
It keeps going back and forth, first I thought it was Russians then was convinced it was friendly fire as that seemed to make the most logical sense. However the new perspective released today makes me feel once again that it might be Russian tanks because they look like Russian tanks to me in the video. I seem to see the specific T-72b3 style reactive armor on the turret sticking out, which is quite distinctive and I don’t think Ukraine has any of those. But it’s hard to tell with 100% accuracy on low res videos. It’s a truly bizarre incident.
It’s truly bizarre as the Ukrainian soldiers are clearly marked with blue and at the same time recognizing/assuming the tank as friendly and waving at it approaching.
Here’s a PoV video posted today on the Wagner tg channel (which has it down as a friendly fire incident):
I didn’t think of the fact that it could be Ukrainian T-64BV as your post shows, now I see that’s definitely possible. Only thing that doesn’t make sense is: to me, I could sort of explain away a friendly fire incident if the gunner/commander were only viewing through the gunsights of perhaps an older tank with poor sights, the blue patches on the soldier’s arms may not be rendered with accurate color. But the problem is in the video the commander is clearly riding on top of the hatch and is visibly seeing the the troops with his own eyes. How could he possibly not see all the blue armbands? Perhaps the gunner fired without the commander’s permission and the gunner couldn’t see the armbands through the gunsights but then that doesn’t explain the fact that we know there were multiple shots afterwards, i.e. the tank fires at least a 2nd time later.
Unless it was LPR troops inside of a captured Ukrainian T-64BV, that’s another explanation. I still don’t know what to make of it
Perhaps someone was a little pissed at the Nazi influence over Ukranian forces and spotted an opportunity to thin the Nazi ranks?
We may never know, such is the nature of war.
While I usually agree with most everything you say, in this instance its clear those videos are manipulated. If we’ve learned anything from the media its that framing a narrative is not all that difficult. The most logical explanation for these videos is that they are separate, unrelated videos with a narrative that falsely makes them seem like they all depict the same event.
The “meat” video is obviously the aftermath of a real encounter. The other two videos were likely shot later to establish “context.”
The “firing tank” video is a manipulated video with an inserted “light flash” to give the appearance of the tank firing. The frame rate is insufficient for a proper forensic analysis, but if you isolate the final frames you’ll see that the effect is artificial. The video actually depicts a Ukrainian tank column approaching Ukrainian soldiers, hence their lack of concern.
The “long distance” perspective video is what gives the game away. The “flash” is an obvious, sloppy insertion. In the foreground is a vehicle whose side-mirror occupies the right-hand side of the screen. The blast, which puportedly occured scores of meters downwind from the vehicle – actually appears IN FRONT of the mirror -which is made of solid metal and glass – in the first few frames of the explosion. There is no physical phenomena that can explain this appearance, and it is proof that the video is manipulated.
It is, however, unclear what the purpose of this little exercise serves. Perhaps it is merely “practice” by the psyops crew in making more sophisticated propaganda and observing their effects on people who post on this site and others.
The most strong argument was russian is the fact they shot 2 TIMES, then we can hear the MG burst fire;
If that was a “friendly fire” than you cannot explain why they keep shooting after the “mistake”.
That was not a friendly fire!! Here is a POV video. The tank commander is on top of the tank.. the distance probably less than 30 metres..
I’ll read this Sitrep a little later today. But I felt the impulse to make a quick, sudden post. That’s because I just heard that Putin’s announced negotiations with the Nazis (and their US/NATO imperialist patrons) are at a “dead end.”
I’m happy to hear Putin’s words. It’s a signal that Russia’s fully prepared to fight onward to victory. That Russia’s got its guns loaded and aimed. That the enemy is going to experience something super, super awful on the battlefield before long.
I suspect they knew it was going nowhere from the first day but optics are everything.
If so, then Russia would have been way better off without these “optics” because everything they did in this regard was scoring PR points for the ukrainians.
That’s why I never understood why they put an inept bureaucrat like medinsky there. Either a real diplomat (if this is about negotiating) or a good actor (if it’s just for show). Russia put an idiot there, instead.
Given how lavrov talked about ukrainians doing a 180 on already “agreed” points it seems Moscow fell again into a very visible Ukrainian trap.
Take the high road or take the low road, depends on how you see yourself. It never seems to occur to people that maybe the Russians were gauging the honesty of the Ukrainians to see if they can form a trustworthy government in the post operational phase. That ship has now sailed, and we have no idea how much operational intelligence the Russian party gained in negotiation.
The Russians don’t care about western PR points.
BBC news currently reporting that US and UK gravely concerned that Russian forces used chemical weapons at Mariupol. Clearly they must be worried about what will transpire. Annoying once again that Russian media is not proactive. Why have they not announced that Azovstal is a bio-weapons complex?
This is particularly concerning due to the fact that UK also stated that IF chem weapons are found to be used, then “nothing is off the table including NATO troops in Ukraine”.
With that said, I could have sworn I read that even some Ukrainian top official said the ‘chem’ warfare thing is likely wrong and that Russia was merely using “white phosphorous” which I suppose is chem warfare on its own but not quite the same as the “Sarin” that Azov claimed Russia was dropping on them.
White phosphorus is not a chemical weapon because the USSA says so.
Already been established by a few people that NATO doesn’t have enough combat ready troops to deploy into the theatre.
There’s a reason why the US said no when the Poles offered to have the jets fly out of the US base in Germany. Boris is a clown. He can sabre rattle and pose for the cameras and talk all he wants but the fact is the UK won’t move.
It was established by President Putin very early on that if they got involved the ‘decision making centres’ ie London and Washington would be legitimate targets. Article 5 does not trigger if you are an agressor. US will be extremely reluctant to fall on the sword for any nation state in Europe.
Utter bullshit, like all western media “reporting”.
Complete RF control of Mariupol is days away, why would they resort to illegal weapons? Why would they do anything that would give credance to Ukrainian propaganda?
As usual, a few seconds of logicsl consideration completely destroys the western narrative.
O boy. Remember the Moscow theater hostage crisis in 2002 that FSB resolved in an excellent way?
A substance that made the entire theater militants and hostages unconscious.
So f… US/UK concerns. Off course the Russian Army will use what they find fit.
It wasn’t actually excellent. The gas potency was miscalculated and many died. But of course they all would have been killed otherwise.
But there was a grave error made in the calculation, and IIRC this was admitted.
After all this, Russia needs to seriously look at its psyops and media operations. I´m glad they are progressing, but in those two regards they did badly.
They merely need to leave the psyops and media operations to the Chechens, who are doing a wonderful job.
Another great article, very informative, difficult issues explained for the non-specialist. Many thanks, Nightvision!
There is something that Ukrainians fail to understand. Apart from being used as cannon fodder in a proxy war against Russians, they are being eliminated and recycled, just like old Soviet weapons are being eliminated and recycled on the battlefield.
Except for Russians, no one needs Ukrainians. However and whenever this war ends, there will be no more Ukrainian people, both politically and ethnically.
Many are fleeing to Europe and will be assimilated there genetically, culturally and mentally. “Almost European” Ukrainians will be quite pragmatically used to refresh Europe’s aging white populations to dilute the flow of Middle Eastern and African migrants (second rate is still better than the third). They will never return to Ukraine. Some go to Russia and will maybe return to Donbass which is, like it or not, Russia. Some will be killed in action or perish. Mostly young people. And this depopulation is part of the Western plan.
My dear Ukrainians, if you read this, do you know why this is part of the plan? Because, in the eyes of your Western friends, you are… Russians.
Well, those Ukrainians fleeing West are running into bigger issues – Forced Covid Vaccinations.
Like half the EU population they will be dead people walking with severely compromised immune systems. The fall out from these vaccinations are only starting to hit – the evil that has wrought this – beyond words.
The West is a Sewer at this point in history but – changes are coming and a better world awaits.
Stand firm with open hearts and light on the truth.
I asked here or another site about Russia. No forced lockdowns or forced vaxes in Russia. The Ukies fled to the wrong place. There was a video in one of the Baltic countries where Ukie refugee women were being treated like dirt.
Plenty of Ukie’s fled to Russia – more than 2 1/2 million since the civil war began
You are right. There has been a slow motion fascist coup of western countries and the cabal are now running a de-population agenda against the human race and the casualty figures for the “vaccines” are horrendous.
When Višeslav Simić said “West and Nazism are of the same totalitarian essence, moved by the same lethal spirit” he was pointing out that the same people orchestrating the Ukraine war, run western countries.
I am amazed at how many of these Ukrainians look zombified.
Our own governments want us either dead or microchipped and transhumanised.
Russia is actually fighting for the survival of the human race and we need to wake up.
It truly is God versus satanism. And I thank God daily for Russia and her president.
Lot of people may thing that you are exaggerating, but I totally agree with you.
Russia here is fighting for the humankind. Even the citizen of the West (like me) will be benefited by a Russian victory.
The other option is the end of the humankind as we know and the stablishment of a crazy dis topic World
I agree completely. If only we/they could take out the WEF! Based on Lavrov’s recent comments, they do now see this conflict as a much larger operation I believe. The US/west/NATO has hopefully played its last hand.
Also Nightvision… I truly appreciate this Sitrep… thank you so much for all the detail. Best comprehensive source of info I can find.
Agree with you. Hopefully the coming war crimes trials and evidence that the nazis in Ukraine are doing the same atrocities as the German Nazis did in 40s, as more people get enlightened by the internet and legacy media loses its impact, we will prevail.
The Ukraine has a lot of good “stuff” that the West wants. Russia has even more good “stuff” that the West would love to steal. Killing off the populace does not bother them at all. Ukraine has great land and soil to grow food that Giant western agribusiness want. There is supposedly some natural gas and oil plus other things.
The bioweapons were to kill off people. Kolomoisky, Bidens, Zlenesky, Rinat Akhmetov are all involved in the bioweapons labs plus others. George Webb on Twitter is doing a great job on all of this. These spike proteins and aerosol delivery of these weapons are done in the Erasmus Lab in Rotterdam by Ron Foucher.
The west using the bioweapons labs would infect birds and animals that would migrate east towards DPR, LPR and Russia. The West had a dream to create a virus to kill off Russian-Slavic people.
But we only want to safe a green environment and the planet from Clima Change and clean filthy useless eaters.
DPR, LPR and Russia use high octane gasoline 98 plus diesel in all their trucks, airfighters and mechanical units, while we are using alternative green electrical Tesla batteries in our airfighters.
Mark my words. Biological DNA modificated artificial created insect species is the Endlösung for mankind.
At last the hammer is about to meet the anvil. Once phase 2 is completed Russia will have defanged the Ukrainian forces about 70 to 80% by some estimates. The denatzification will be a longer process that will utilize a different approach than armed conflict.
I wonder how long phase 2 will take to fully achieve the set objectives. Weeks or months?
collapsing the cauldron itself could be weeks or less but all the surviving Ukie troops inside the cauldron will retreat into the constellation of ‘fortress cities’ which will be around kramatorsk-slavyansk axis, and here will be a Stalingrad/Mariupol level siege that could take months because they will have to smoke them out block by block, door by door as per usual. There’s chance they will surrender en masse perhaps but they may also hang on for months inside these cities.
«here will be a Stalingrad/Mariupol level siege that could take months because they will have to smoke them out block by block, door by door as per usual. There’s chance they will surrender en masse perhaps but they may also hang on for months inside these cities.»
Hang on: eating what? shooting with what? The german troops inside Stalingrad were for a while resupplied of food and ammunition by airdrops, but NATO cannot fly C-130s over Ukraine.
The RF military have done so far a huge attack not on the ruthenian military but their logistics and infrastructure. First soften the target, then wait.
I agree. The reason for the Mariopul surrender was mainly supply shortage. UAF in the cauldron could already be suffering from the same thing.
The video of the POW street sweepers shows how de-nazification can be effected. If they could see the videos of the torturing and murder of Russian POWs, they would know how lucky they are. They will probably never pick up arms again: Learning through compassion vs. learning through hatred.
No most of them would go back to fighting for the money and they probably aren’t bothered by the torture and suffering of others. They wouldn’t have been part of these forces in the first place if they had any morals or ethnics, they wouldn’t have committed the crimes against the Donbass people for all those years. They can never be truly trusted to have changed.
jojo, I agree some, or many may fit your description. But don’t forget many have been “press ganged” in to service and are under constant threats by the NAZI units embedded in every section of the Ukie military.
It will be a challenge for the Russians to sort the wheat from the chaff. But it will be done through witness testimony, documents, etc.
Normally I would agree. What I learned from following events of this SMO is that these UkroNazis are subhumans (I was going to use the word “animals”).
Azov are forcing people into war and are killing them on the spot should they resist or question their instructions. Once in combat as a Ukrainian soldier, there is not much hope of surrender either as they would be instantly killed by the Azovites.
How does one escape the war with so much brainwashing, media propaganda, forced conscription and assigned terminators? It’s conceivable that Russian vs Russian and Slav vs Slav are in combat without individuals having the slightest interest in war.
Not if they got a wife/girl-friend and a decent job. It’s the same with most criminals.
my guess it will be early August before the RF abd their Ukrainian Allies can undertake another operational level action.
Everything that military experts and journalists did not tell you about tactics, geostrategy and interesting combat operations in Ukraine
The analysis is mostly wrong, clear propaganda from the Ukrainian side. There are too many problems to list but the biggest 1. Russia never lost Gostomel airport, that was Ukie propaganda. THey took it and held it as long as they wanted. 2. Russia didn’t use any MiG-29s. The article author seems to have fallen for the hoax video that showed a MiG-29 attacking a ground object near “civilians” but it was later confirmed to be Ukrainian.
3. Most importantly: the analysis premises itself on the completely fraudulent work of “Oryx” which has already been debunked several times. Oryx’s famous site lists “1000’s” of Russian losses of equipment, and it has been debunked to be anywhere from 70-90% wrong. So that immediately makes this entire analysis premised on completely wrong data which means there is very little of pertinent info in the work of this author.
Oryx posted pics of destroyed Ukrainian armor saying it was Russian, undamaged Russian equipment saying it was destroyed, and other complete nonsense. Inverting Oryx’s claimed RF losses into Ukrainian losses presentes a far more accurate picture.
Perhaps you could post some links to the debunking of Oryx’s work? It’s quoted everywhere in Western media.
Posting in western media is proof that it is garbage.
Just like RussiaGate, Jeffery Epstein’s “suicide”, Bin Laden responsible 9/11, WMDs in Iraq, the Gulf of Tonkin …
Ukie propaganda is intended primarily for Ukrainians, who would surrender if they knew how bad it is for them. The western media repeats this garbage because it serves their purpose, as does a prolonged proxy war with Russia.
Here’s one of them, https://twitter.com/basedBanEvader/status/1512100352216248328 this military expert and ex army guy armchairgeneral did a whole series looking closely at all of Oryx’s work so you’ll have to go through his account piece by piece if interested and see his analysis on the various different parts of Oryx’s accounting. And I should mention the other big part of why Oryx is fraudulent is his data sheets make no attempt to differentiate between RF / LDNR losses, and we know LDNR also use the Z symbols etc on all of their equipment, and use a lot of the same equipment for obvious reasons.
Also, I may do a future report on it myself (as I had already planned), but there were many instances I myself have recorded where Oryx blanketly uses photos of equipment that a civilian had merely ‘taken a photo of’ and immediately notes it down as “captured”. There were some videos of civilians just driving past a tank and taking a photo and that made it to his database as ‘captured’ tanks despite the fact that there’s no evidence whatsoever that it was captured. Not to mention the many photoshopped photos he uses like the famous 2S19 photo that clearly has a person standing in front of it that’s deleted via a bad photoshop job, likely to remove a Russian serviceman so that they can claim the tank is by itself and thus “captured”.
Not to mention the many instances of “abandoned” tanks that were simply temporarily left behind (either mechanical reasons, out of fuel, or stuck in mud) and then retaken later by Russian forces. But the “photo” of the tank taken by anyone now immediately qualifies it in the “captured” category. But of course the vast bulk of the fraud by far is the hundreds of burnt out “destroyed” vehicles which are all actually Ukrainian but are just listed as “Russian” for no reason despite the fact that no identifying market whatsoever can be seen on them.
Thanks for all your hard work to keep us informed; it is greatly appreciated.
The Ukrops are digging deep into their storage. They have found a small collection of WW II era(?) artillery.
Update on that story of the West Ukrainian actress who make that ISIS style video of her fake slitting the throat of a POW Russian soldier. And calling Russian soldiers pigs. Well it seems that didn’t go over well with real Russian soldiers,now who could have guessed that? So they made their own answer video for her:
As always insightful and very interesting sitrep. It’s always pleasure to read such a factual, well-prepared reports. Excellent work. Thank you, Nightvision.
What if Putin is not looking to end this war?
Thanks for the link to Schweizer Standpunkt! very good article
Great job. Thanks for taking up the duty. Noticed your readership is skyrocketing. Bet you Break 100,000 views Soon enough.
Thanks buddy. I take it that’s a good number?
Is 100,000 views for a article good ?
Welk, the once mighty CNN nightly News gets about 750,000 viewers.
Samizdat is winning.
is it for this “propagandizes” citizens that i wanted a direct face off between equal groups, so no amount of propaganda could mask the massiv loss of NATO. If this happens in this state rn. the Propoaganda start to fail massivly and the people finally start to wake up.
Thank you for (again) great commentary.
As for chemical warfare-initially I was certain that tear gas was not forbidden in warfare, but my short research shows it is ( Geneva Protocol in 1925 prohibited the use of “asphyxiating gas, or any other kind of gas, liquids, substances or similar materials”). So it seems that will not be used in Azovstal, water on the other hand, might.
As for mercenaries. It is quite perplexing they all seem to expect from Russians some kind of safe corridors. Why would they receive them? Only to return back to fight Russia, and after carnage of Wagner Group fighters in Syria by American hand? That said, although not protected by Geneva Conventions, they do have right to fair trial under customary international law and cannot be legally summarily executed, even less so tortured. However, they could be put on trial and sentenced for (from Russian point of view) illegaly taking part in conflict (but only if Russian or DNR/LDR law so provides).
In Mariupol they would come under the jurisdiction of the DPR. They could be charged with terrorism and murder and I believe the DPR and LPR have the death penalty.
Thank you, Nightvision. Greeting from Indonesia
In L33T “elite” speak, ‘1’ stands for ‘I’, and ‘4’ stands for ‘A’. So you can decode for yourself the meaning of the C14 rent-a-mob’s name. Aspirational, or flaunting?
Great work, Nightvision, full of very useful information, maps and links. Many, many thanks! Kudos!
Yes TY Nightvision, keep on!
Oh my, what happened to all the western fantasy of a ‘NO FLY ZONE’?? remember it was constantly in the news 24/7.
This Sitrep explains the reasoning behind the chicken hawks of Nato, all talk, blah blah blah. That is why it is crucial to really ignore all western published media at all costs regarding the events of this conflict.
All mercenaries should be put to death, they are terrorists, this brit ‘Johhny’ should be hung at a local pub in Ukraine. Put the trash out sonny…
I suggest that the British mercenary follows the fate of his erstwhile king Edward II – as depicted in Christopher Marlowe’s play
Brit Johnny was in Syria fighting with the head choppers. He should not see the light of day for many years.
Here is Patrick with a report from the front lines of Mariupol. The resiliency of the people is so refreshing.
Weepy Cossack Johnny from the UK on his call was worried he would be used for propaganda when he surrenders. How about a short rope on a branch of a tall tree? F him. He is a merc.
In the first video – who is the older gentleman in battle uniform. Is he a DPR or Russian officer? He always seems to be there when there is a surrender of ukie troops. He seems to treat them with dignity. I hope more Ukie’s surrender. Do not die for Igor Kolomoisky, Zelensky, Poroshenko, Hunter Biden, Soros and other scum.
Rule of law (Geneva Convention):
POWs are treated as a lawful combatant and therefore a Protected Person which for a soldier is as a Prisoner of War (POW) until the soldier has faced a competent tribunal (GC III Art 5). That tribunal may decide that the person is a mercenary using criteria in APGC77 or some domestic law equivalent. At that point the mercenary becomes an unlawful combatant but they must still be “treated with humanity and, in case of trial, shall not be deprived of the rights of fair and regular trial”, because they are still covered by GC IV Art 5.
If after a regular trial, a captured soldier is found to be a mercenary, then they can expect to be treated as common criminals and may face execution. As they are not POWs they can not expect repatriation at the end of the war. The best known, post World War II, example of this was on June 28 1976 an Angolan court sentenced four mercenaries to death and nine others to prison terms ranging from 16 to 30 years. The three Britons and an American were shot by a firing squad on July 10 1976.
As Russia has been assiduously following international law, it is expected that they will continue to do so.
Believe it or not the Cossackgundi crowd are saying that he’s actually not technically a “merc” because he’s now lived in Ukraine for 5 years and has “officially” joined the Ukrainian Marines. Others have stated this is odd considering that Ukraine does not allow dual citizenships, so I’m not sure exactly where the situation stands. But allegedly he’s an actual Ukrainian contract marine rather than a merc. I guess we’ll see about that
Yes but the Ukraine does “allow” triple citizenship for vermin like Igor kolomoisky who holds a Ukie, Cyprus and Israeli passport. He usually lives in Switzerland but may be hiding out in Israel. If the Russians do not take all of his assets and try to find a way to arrest him, it will appear that the biggest criminal-warlord-oligarch has escaped.
NATO can avoid this type of embarrassment in the future by putting an obligatory “Banzai Attack” clause in all of its future mercenary contracts and then bring in Japanese military advisors instead of French & American ones to make sure it happens. (lol)
I’d like to add my pennworth of praise to Nightvision’s efforts. He gives by far the best overview of what’s going on to those of us struggling to see through the fog of propaganda in this war. As a side issue, it’s interesting that some French media seem to be breaking ranks with the wall propaganda spewing forth from their heavily controlled international colleagues, and letting some truth emerge . Does anyone have any views as to why? It should surely help Le Pen if it’s proved that French mercenaries – let alone serving intelligence officers – are involved. I somehow think spinning them as “heroes” as is happening here in the UK with the English “dog of war” who’s been captured, won’t wash – especially if they are taking orders from Americans. De Gaulle must be spinning in his grave. On a wider note, I wish more regular, non Russophobic, Ukrainian trroops would wake up to the fact they are pawns being led to the slaughter by sinister globalists (as well domestic politicians whose loyalties lie elsewhere). None of these scumbgas could care less about Ukraine or its people. It is in everyone’s interests that a bloodbath is avoided when the Donbass cauldron is taken, so I pray most of those trapped there realise they’ve been played and give up.
Nightvision, thank you for the great reporting. Just wanted to add to your point that Poland is sending 100 T-72 tanks or so. Poland also has on order 200 Abram tanks from the United States. You notice how NATO countries are “forced” to donate old equipment to the Ukranians and are getting replenished by the arms suppliers. Slovakia is apparently getting Patriot missiles , that is why they donated the S-300 which got blown to bits. These European countries are nothing more than adding fuel to the fire and are all complicit as war criminals. Its too bad Ukraine does not have any brave politicians to fight this, but the Ukranian Secret services is eliminating any dissent along with their NATO masters. Pretty soon we will see Albania donate it’s 1952 Chinese tanks to the war!
All wars are bankers wars. How much are the shareholders of the manufacturers of the Abrams tanks making per tank. Who owns the shares?
Its a racket. Forced to give away their old stuff and forced into buy new US arms and gas. If any politician raise their voice they will either get regime changed or murdered.
We must back up Russia’s attack on this sick exploitation and pervers parasitic US system.
Just yesterday I heard in the news that German government wants to deliver Leopard 1 tanks –
I wonder where they found them?
They are decommissioned in Germany at least since 2003 ?!
Its like a danaan present.
With regards to using a supersonic missile (it’s likely not/barely hypersonic on terminal approach) for bunker-busting:
I previously discarded this for the following reasons:
– Insufficient terminal speed to cause the effect by kinetic energy alone
– Insufficient payload space to cause the effect with chemical explosives
However, what about the following scenario:
– Impact at mach 6. Too slow for KE alone to do the work, BUT…
– Metallic impactor sturdy enough to burry itself a few meters into the ground…
– Followed by a shaped charge detonation to send a seismic shockwave downwards
I don’t know enough about the physics (nevermind timing requirements) to know if this is at all possible. If it is feasible, i guess this method couldn’t collapse a large complex (since it only works by focussing what little energy is available), but it might collapse small section or bunker?
Could it not have a controllable burn rate, so it could burn fuel at a slower rate (and thus fly slower) on the way there and burn the remaining fuel as quickly as possible on approach to maximize impact speed?
I vaguely recall some figures given from the first Kinzhal flight which suggested in only averaged around Mach 5 on its journey rather than the advertised Mach 8-12.
Short answer: No, and it doesn’t matter anyways. KE does not exist below mach 20.
Can the “rods from space”-gang please stop polluting every Kinzhal discussion with their scifI-BS? It would be nice if we could for once not spent 90% of our time debunking those guys, and actually learn something.
That’s actually not true. Kinetic energy equal to the missile / rocket’s mass in TNT is achieved at Mach 10.3
According to this article, hypersonic kinetic penetrators can reach a depth of 300 ft:
“It has been demonstrated that a hardened long-rod penetrator delivering in excess of 5 megajoules of energy at hypersonic velocity to the armor of a tank can penetrate the armor and destroy a tank. This generally involves boosting the rod to hypersonic velocity using a gun-launched munition or a rocket motor. A 250 lb hypersonic penetrator can acquire the same penetration depth and impact as a 5,000 lb gravity bomb. By one calculation, a 4,000-lb Conventional Penetrator can reach a depth of 150 feet, while a 2,500-lb Hypersonic KE Penetrator can reach a depth of 300 feet.
Hypersonic penetrators have a maximum effective delivery speed of about 5,000 ft/sec (at approximately Mach 5) and have the potential to destroy some deeply buried targets (DBTs). The maximum penetration depth is a function of the mass of the device and the velocity with which the device strikes the ground. Maximum penetration depths for granite are less than 100 ft. While there are many critical targets within the penetration depth capability of hypersonic penetrators, many of the most critical targets are more deeply buried than the penetration depth limit for these devices.”
From what I have researched so far, the Kinzhal’s maximum velocity is Mach 10 and its delivery speed
might be close to this, so I think the 5,000m/s maximum delivery speed is obsolete.
Mach 6 on impact?
Kinetic Energy = 1/2*Mass*Velocity^2
Mach 6 = 6 * 340 meters per second ~ 2,000 meters per second.
KE = 1/2*1kg*(2,000)^2
= 2,000,000 Joules per kilogram.
Most chemical explosives have an energy density of about
4,000,000 Joules per kilogram.
However; even in normal bombs, about half the mass of the bomb is structural and only about half of the mass of the bomb is explosive.
The main factor that designers of tanks understand is that the ability of a projectile to penetrate armor is by general rule proportional to the effective sectional density multiplied by impact velocity squared. This is not an absolute rule because the exponent varies from about 1/3 for very tough ceramic metallic ar to maybe 3 for soft crap. (I used to do armor penetration tests).
The bottom line is that hypersonic warheads will penetrate very deep into solid rock or concrete. A relatively small shaped charge will enhance the interior damage.
“Je n’en sais pas assez sur la physique”. Vous avez raison, l’hypersonique est bien plus dangereux que ce vous pensez. C’est bien le principe de l’obus flèche ou de la charge creuse qui est utilisé pour percer des blindages mais les formules classiques de l’énergie cinétique ne fonctionnent pas pour diverses raisons. Il s’agit d’une focalisation de l’effet destructif qui est d’autant meilleure que la vitesse est importante.
“In other interesting news which shows that Turkey’s “closing of the Bosphorous” straits was not what it seemed, and was in fact a more than subtle blow against NATO, Turkish defense minister has confirmed that Turkey is strictly prohibiting any NATO ships from passing the straits as well.”
This was actually well documented very early on.
Apparently, the British and Americans were going to make a run on Odessa – shooting through the Black Sea under air support from the carrier group off italy at the time, and an international air arm (UK, US, French) in Romania.
The Turks, seeing themselves getting dragged into war with Russia (which would have gone nuclear if capital ships were used to break through to Odessa and Russian ships sunk by US and UK baval and air power – or vica versa) acted to prevent this.
Apparently the Turks used threat of force against beligerant UK and US officers who were going to ignore the Montreux Convention and Turkish authority over the Bosphorus and send warships into the Black Sea anyway.
From the stories about this on other blogs there is enough exciting material and brinkmanship you would not belive to make a Hollywood movie.
The quick (and very forceful) action by Turkey to secure the Black Sea from beligerants may be the reason we are still able to talk to each other (ie we are not buried under piles of radioactive ash).
US/UK attack on RF forces at Odessa would be the start of WWIII.
Accordingly I am dismissing this as false. Turkey did not save the world from global war.
«US/UK attack on RF forces at Odessa would be the start of WWIII»
There are arguments in “the west” that Putin would be too chicken to retaliate against an “humanitarian” NATO mission in Ukraine:
“Putin rules by fear. So frighten him back. He does not want a fight with the west, let alone a third world war – Nato’s excuse of last resort for refusing to confront him. He knows he’d lose. It scares him. So here are some of the hard choices western leaders must urgently consider. First, direct intervention to create a safe haven in western Ukraine, where displaced people may congregate instead of fleeing abroad. Inform Moscow in advance of its location and boundaries. Be clear it will be protected by Nato air power and ground forces invited in by Kyiv. Second, declare the unoccupied city of Odesa off-limits. Send naval forces into international waters in the Black Sea and warn Russia to cease coastal bombardments or face serious, unspecified consequences. Third, tell Putin that if his artillery and missile units fire on civilians again, as in Kramatorsk, they will be deemed legitimate Nato military targets. Fourth: supply fighter planes and tanks to Kyiv. Fifth: block all Russian fossil fuel exports.”
Note in particular that “artillery and missile units fire on civilians again”: it is basically a “suggestion” to the ukrainian artillery and missile units to fire on their own civilians and then blame Putin, even if Putin were to order the RF military to stop firing at all.
The logic is clear: Putin is claimed to be an insane war criminal, so as to justify a hammer blow against the RF military under the “duty to protect” doctrine.
NATO will not intervene in Ukraine unless they have some prior backdoor agreement with the Kremlin/Russia to cede certain territory they (Russia) have no interest in – most likely western Ukraine, Galicia. The likelihood of this however is next to 0, Russia has not committed itself to such a significant military operation to allow territory to go to NATO – plus, it is a feeling on my part, but I believe strongly that Putin & his closest political allies are intent on righting the wrongs of the Soviet Union’s dissolution from the perspective of ethnic Russian lost territory & that this is a prime opportunity to right those wrongs that no Russian government is ever likely to have again. So I doubt Russia has much interest in say Uzbekistan, & incorporating it into Russia, but Ukraine, Belarussia, & Kazakhstan I would say are definite “union state” projects. A big question lies with the ethnic Russian population in the Baltic states, after Ukraine has been liberated in total, Russia will no longer tolerate the terrible treatment the ethnic Baltic Russians receive. But that Russia plans to take all of Ukraine, I have no doubt whatsoever, & that NATO does not dare face off directly against Russia, that is certain as well. NATO will talk the talk though, they will act big & tough till the end, when they have a load of stinking egg on their collective ugly faces. Those who remember the details of the Georgie-Ossetia 2008 war, the UK government actually threatened to militarily intervene, they actually had the gall to openly threaten Russia & get this: “order” Russia to withdraw. Order. I couldn’t believe it. But Russia just ignored them & carried on & the UK government soon just shut up, anyone remember that idiot minister of defence Gareth Williams when he said “Putin should shut up & gooow away”… idiot, what does gooow mean? Bloody northern pratt. Anway, to shut up & gooow away is exactly what the UK has repeatedly had to do, & they will do it again, the cowards that they are, pure spineless imbeciles of the first order. They will never fight a war with Russia, never, they do not have the guts for it.
I kind of believe this. Most people don’t know most of the Syria stuff, Georgia 2008 war etc was all about Sevastopol / Crimea. Because without Crimean naval base Russia can’t resupply its forward bases in Syria, and without that, U.S. would have destroyed Syria, then Iran, then held the keys to all Eurasia. So Crimea / Sevastopol was the lynch pin to saving the entire planet in a sense. Russia’s lease on Sevastopol base was expiring and U.S. needed to stop Ukraine from allowing Russia to sign a new lease (Georgian war was involved in this as well), they wanted Sevastopol bad but Russia defeated them and took that jewel. So the next best thing I guess was Odessa, from what I’ve been reading recently was the Brits and their intended control of Odessa, turning it into a new naval base for themselves. Which appears to be why Odessa is also very important for Russia to capture. Once that is captured it will be game over for NATO ambitions in the black sea.
It has a tinge of probability. But to think that the Russians would not have gamed this and had a welcoming party ready would be wrong.
NATO planes and ocean vessels would have firstly been blinded by EW, and then it would have been as easy as shooting (fascist) fish in a barrel.
Is there a higher resolution map (from the end of the post)?
A diplomatic German-Ukrainian casus: Ukrainian president Zelensky refused ot meet with the German president Steinmayer, allegedly because Steinmayer is a Putin’s friend. Some friend I would say. Now in Germany thereR is a growing in numbers petition to expulse the Ukrainian ambasador Melnik.
The parading of opposition leader Medvedchuk by the Zelensky regime in front of cameras is an attempt to gain negotiating leverage regarding the release of westerners in Azozstal.
Interesting way of demonstrating Ukraine’s democratic credentials, as opposed to that horrible dictator, Putin. Meanwhile the Western Mockingbird media persstitutes steadfastly look the other way, ignoring the obvious.
God bless you Russia.
thanks Andrei for all the interesting links.
The article is by Nightvision. Mod.
I expect that you will soon be capturing Leautenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, retired. He is the little weasel who initiated the impeachment against President Donald Trump for daring to question the alleged wisdom of the National Security Council. As you probably know well, Vindman (aka “The Pillsbury Doughboy”) and his twin brother were immigrants from Ukraine. Vindman’s allegiance was to Ukraine rather than the United States of America. If the Russians capture Vindman, hopefully they will publicaly flog him and castrate him then flog him again.
I second that.
That is not as far fetched as you think:
Vindman Was Asked Three Times To Be Defense Minister Of Ukraine
It is too bad he didn’t accept, if he did he would probably be in Mariupol right now.
What a bizarre world we live in. (sigh)
At every opportunity I criticized and exposed the lies of this AH Vindman and a female journalist from Belarus and Twiitter suspended me for harassment . Pay pal is also suspended Visa Support to Saker ???? Any news on this???
Love the backed up data
How the French are ” integrating ” the newly arrived female Ukrainian students. Spot an agenda ?
Why, the French only want the Ukrainians to meet fellow refugees from other parts of the world. Naturally, it is mostly young men who are fleeing Africa and mostly young women who are fleeing the Ukraine. They have so much in common, like being in a foreign country. They should get to know each other.
Many thanks for this outstanding (as usual) report. What I still fail to grasp is why civilians don’t flee way before the decision is made to turn them into human barricade. Furthermore, what prevents them from fleeing on foot through rural roads instead of hitting Ukr checkpoints while driving?
a car is shelter. quicker luggage transport for slow elderly and children. and maybe the most valuable 1 commodity they own and can earn money as taxi. I don’t think there is a huge car owning culture especially expenses of such if you live in eg Mariupol city….most people maybe use local minibus taxis etc.
Most people are too attatched to their homes and veg plot….the preserves many will have stored away from those…..and such as stubborn elder generation…want to stay and protect them until it is too late….and sentimental etc to really think about leaving and are fearful of the stories they hear of humanitarian corridors being setup them deliberately shelled by AFU to keep them as hostages…as well as some peoples who still support AFU. Its not straightforward. But look at the stats of peoples who have gone eastwards
The West Point tape was good. What struck me most about it is, there were people out there telling the Pentagon, high level command, that they were out of their minds and running around with their heads dismounted. But, nobody listened.
It is also a little clearer to me why the West thought they had this fight in the bag. The AFU had good troops, with experienced and battle hardened members. The thinking was that by over supplying them with everything, these guys would be unstopable. They have been dead wrong. At this point I am tending to think that NATO leadership is actually horrified by what they see going on, in the battlefield. They thought their crew was good to go and that is very far from the case.
Over the next couple of months, my guess would be that, at some point ( and it already may be the case with the US DoD ), Western military leadership starts to grab the politicians and DOS types by the throat ( behind closed doors naturally ) and bring them back into a proper perspective. The fighting has a ways to go but, it is over already. What an incredible waste of lives and resources, just for the sake of ambition, imaginary revenge and cruelty.
Thank you for you efforts Nightvision.
As usual, great report, Nightvision!
thank you, nightvision, another brilliant illuminating summary. i am hoping you might answer 2 questions: 1) there have been posts on moa that ukraine & donbass are atop a great field of gas, which burisma, particularly hunter biden has a piece of; if true this impacts the american play to cancel ns2 & pipe needed gas to europe. 2) some have suggested that the russians could flood the steel plant as it sits on the sea…if there are bio labs in fact in the basements—given these labs may be protected by metal doors (if the nazis don’t open them once the flooding begins) would those doors be sufficient to keep whatsoever bio hazards are there safe? i have suspected the russians may feel the risk of flooding these labs is sufficiently risky to prevent flooding. bt i do not know. i look forward to your reply.
Sorry am not really familiar with the gas aspect of it though I know there’s some important pipelines there. But that wouldn’t surprise me and I’m sure is part of the calculus.
As for the biolabs, I honestly don’t know anything about that either and I’m skeptical of the reports I’ve heard of secret biolabs in the basement and such. Anything is possible but I’d have to see some kind of evidence to really believe that because it just doesn’t seem likely that a biolab would be built in the basement of a steel factory, I don’t see the logic of it. There are many other safer places to build one. But who knows, I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Thank you, Nightvision.
This war between Russia and the US/NATO will not end with the pacification of the Ukraine. The 800+ US bases spread out over 100+ countries, starting with Syria and Iraq, are next IMO.
The Empire of Lies is also an Empire of Illusion. And the illusion is rapidly being shattered.
Interestingly, the flooding of the tunnels brought to mind the water boarding so loved by the Americans in their War of Terror.
I want to ask if in your opinion what will be the probable lapse of time for the start of Phase 2, assuming that the withdraw of Russian forces from Kiev aroundd March 30 was the end of Phase 1. The 2 weeks since are a normal frame for the preparation of an operation of this magnitude?
Also, I’d like to know your opinion about the performance of Russian EW and other techniques of surveillance in the discovery of ambushing and saboteurs ukro groups, and the detection of (usually camouflages, I guess, weapons like MRLS, artillery and aerial assets).
Hope that if the losses on manpower of the ukros keep an ascendig factor, like you mentioned today, the timeframe of the operation could be shortened.
There’s no real telling but I’d guess in the next 2-3 weeks it can start or less. Even though Mariupol is almost secure I think it will still take at least another week or 2 to fully secure it plus move the forces from there into new positions etc. So it can be anywhere from 2 weeks to 4 weeks if you ask me. Some say it has to start soon because in 2 weeks, all the greenery/trees/shrubs of the Donbass steppes will go into full bloom and it will make it exponentially harder for Russia to fight Ukraine and will lead to huge Russian losses by giving Ukraine major advantages in concealment all over. I don’t know how true this is or how concerned Russian MOD is about this. Maybe they make a fast blitz before that happens to try to maximize time or maybe they’re not really as concerned because they know they have superior optics on the whole, and IR capabilities and such to see through the foliage coverage. Hard to say.
There’s some alleged new Pentagon reports that claim 50ish BTGs have positioned in the north but at least 10 more are still resustaining/regenerating over the border in Belarus so if true this could also give some indication that they’re still finalizing a portion of their units.
As to 2nd question, well it’s easy to go into armchair mode and say Russia has blundered in its ability to defend against ambushes, but it’s hard to truly judge due to the fact that the phase of operation where ambushes occurred was such that precluded the possibility to really guard flanks and rears as efficiently as one would like, and favored risky advances deep into enemy territory, 50-100km rushes in a single day etc. The issues are aggravated by a fact it’s very easy to overlook is the sheer gargantuan size of Ukraine, the largest country in Europe, and the comparatively small force Russia used against such a large sized country.
So personally I’m going to withhold my judgment until Phase 2 where Russia prosecutes the offensive in a far more ‘conventional’ manner of normal warfare, rather than light cavalry forces racing towards some political and ‘special’ objectives (like seizing biolabs, nuke plants, dams, etc) deep behind enemy lines.
The fact that you don’t see much ambushes anymore is already very telling to me.
I just read an article last night from some ‘western’ rag that claimed Ukraine soldiers were able to fool and nullify Russian FLIR / IR sensors by running through forests with “yoga mats on their head” which purportedly blocked their IR signatures, who knows if such dreck has even an ounce of truth to it.
What I will say is that the Ukrops have clearly demonstrated immense resourcefulness and combat intelligence, bravery, etc on the battlefield BUT it cannot be overstated or overlooked how vastly they are aided by the incomparable resources of NATO/U.S. etc. in all of their exploits, ambushes, and combat achievements in general.
I’ve seen almost no normal combat losses from our side, almost every single loss (if you notice) is equipment on roadways which attests to the fact that ambushing is the only way they’ve defeated us so far. I’ve seen several 2S19 artillery pieces that were alleged to be lost, and all of them were on roads and not a single loss occurred via actual accurate counter-battery fire etc from the Ukrop side. So the ambushing is definitely lethal and successful, but to what extent is the question. In the end like I said, I expect it to be greatly minimized (as it already is) as the RF forces switch to much safer and more traditional/conventional manner of warfare in the coming days.
Btw here’s Putin’s response today to the question of, if it’s possible to go quickly in Phase 2:
““I often hear questions, is it possible to quickly? Can. It depends on the intensity of hostilities, and the intensity of hostilities unfortunately is somehow related to losses. Our task is to achieve all the goals set, minimizing these losses. And we will act rhythmically, calmly, according to the plan that was originally proposed by the General Staff.””
In short, Russia is taking its time, and is not in a rush. Only the west creates this fake paradigm and concept that ‘if Russia doesn’t capture/defeat so and so very fasty then that means they are losing’. No, Russia is not in a rush. It can take however long it wants in Ukraine to achieve its objectives which are of existential value. They are not worried about all this talk of weeks or months. Russian economy is far stronger than that of Europe which are all collapsing now with inflation. Russia has the support of the most powerful economy on earth (China) while europe has the support of the “sick man” of the world, the U.S. with its nasty, failing, rotting and contagiously diseased economy.
You have to remember there was minimal preparation for this operation from the beginning. Had Russia done the typical military build-up, it would have been detected by US satellites and the Ukes would have redeployed into defensive positions, and hidden or buried all of their ammunition and fuel and maybe even stationed much of their air force out of Ukraine. It took the US military about 90 days to get Desert Storm underway and there is no way around that kind of buildup, and Ukraine is a much bigger operation. So, what we are witnessing now is the buildup that should have been months ago, prior to the operation. And I think also explains why Phase One went like it did, with Russia taking a lot of chances and using relatively inexperienced troops. Had they deployed their best troops it could have given the game away as well. So, I think when this is over, it will become known as one of the best campaigns in military history. IMHO
“You have to remember there was minimal preparation for this operation from the beginning”
Minimal preparation? I strongly disagree. What an uneducated assertion. Bollocks!
looks likemore than a hundred “internationalists” have arrived in Lughansk to partake in Donbass Ops.
I’m starting to get the suspician that the US just used Ukraine to test and probably attempt to capture and reverse engineer Russian weapons.
It is known by most sane people here in the United States that our military has been on a downward spiral for a long time.
The primary focus is no longer war fighting. That has been replaced with a purge of actual soldiers with those who “think” correctly.
I forbade my sons from joining the military.
At some point our adult children decide for themselves. I just kept my sons aware of what can happen when you put on the uniform. I told them about all of the hazards, including physical, moral, financial and psychological. They made the right decisions.
I did firmly shut down attempts by military recruiters to phone my high school aged sons at home. The recruiters would hang up with self righteous quips like “Enjoy your freedom, sir.”
Half of the taxes sucked out of my lifetime of work have gone to support idiots like that and wars I don’t want. The other half have gone mostly to idiots who have turned the country into something I can barely recognize.
The only freedoms we have are the freedoms we refuse to relinquish. Don’t render unto Caesar any more than God commands. He forbids child sacrifice.
The most patriotic thing a young person can do these days, is to refuse to be a part of the empire’s military.
Thank you Night vision. You truly can seem to see through the thick black fog of war!
This one is a tour de force.
Pity that millions are not reading… One can only hope…
~1000 Ukrainian Marines surrender at the Ilyich Plant!
Largest surrender so far!
Followed foiled attempt by them to break out in a column headed by a tank and APCs.
Looks like this pocket will be cleaned up shortly.
A question about post-war. Ukraine has run and is running up humongous debts to the IMF and everyone else in Zone A. Will the Donbass republics be stuck with any of it? What about the other parts of Ukraine that may become independent, e.g. Odessa, Kherson, etc.? Will whatever remains of Ukraine, should it realign with Russia and Belorus, be allowed to renounce the debts run up by the post-2014 regime or will Russia insist on those debts to the West be repaid? The new Ukraine could sure use a clean slate, after which it could seek loans from Zone B.
The victors make rules. The debt was given to porky and ze’s regime and not to the people who were being persecuted for 8 long years. Instead, the zone A should repay for the reconstruction as a result of the war.
Thank you for your in depth daily analysis of the situation in Ukraine.
As an additional note on the Indian Air Force. Since 2005 the US has conducted a number of inter Air Force competitions between the US and Indian Air Forces. I believe at least 3 have been done.
In all 3, the Indian Air Force defeated the US pilots…
Operation Z: Military commissars of the Russian Spring
🔥🇬🇧Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed the tent camp of the Armed Forces of Ukraine🔥
The air strike was carried out in the dark, the number of liquidated soldiers is unknown.
This war was over in the first couple of weeks. Once the Ukrainians had been buttoned down in the east far from their supplies it was over.
To prolong the war is murder for both sides.
Negotiations should of happened after Ukraine realized their predicament.
The real enemy to humanity are those who control Zalenski.
It’s not over when the Ukrainians keep fighting and when they still are able to fire deadly missiles into the Donbass. Russians entered Ukraine to stop the attack on Donbass and until they can do that you cannot say even the first step of the special operation is complete.
“To prolong the war is murder for both sides. Negotiations should of happened after Ukraine realized their predicament. The real enemy to humanity are those who control Zalenski.”
Zelenski has realized this and has even stated on the record in an interview with “The Economist”:
«Mr Zelensky divides NATO into five camps. First are those who “don‘t mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives”.»
For daring to say that probably he will soon be “martyred” by “the russians”.
«when U.S. instructors first started pouring in, in the subsequent years, they were often viewed as laughing stocks by the Ukrainian veterans of the Donbass war. They felt they had nothing to learn from the “elite” U.S. instructors and in fact knew more about combat/warfare than they did.»
Orlov interviewed by the Saker some time ago:
“After some amount of effort by NATO instructors to train the Ukrainians, the instructors gave up. The Ukrainians simply laughed in their faces because it was clear to them that the instructors did not know how to fight at all. It was then decided that the “road map” for Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO should be set aside because the Ukrainians are just too crazy for sedate and sedentary NATO.
The trainers were then replaced with CIA types who simply collected intelligence on how to fight a high-intensity ground war without air support — something that no NATO force would ever consider doing. Under such conditions NATO forces would automatically retreat or, failing that, surrender.”
«In every other category U.S. stands no chance against Russia»
Logistics: the USA/NATO have 10-15 times the military budget of the Russian Federation. In WW2 the german army easily defeated the soviet army, which only survived because of huge logistic supplies from the USA. Also the german army was arguably more effective than the USA army in WW2, but they got overwhelmed by USA war production.
Thanks for the link, there’s the evidence anyone needs.
As for WW2 that’s incorrect. In fact the Lend Lease was not authorized for USSR until november of 1941 only a month before the USSR had already broken the Germans back at the battle of Moscow and had them retreating. And then it only began to trickle in over the following year or two and the lend lease supplies did not hit high gear until 1943++ onward, at which point by then the USSR obviously was on its way towards Berlin. You forgot to mention the vast majority of ‘lend lease’ actually went to the UK and it was not a program aimed primarily for the USSR which was authorized only much later.
Your vaunted ‘military budget’ of NATO is all smoke and mirrors because you don’t appear to properly understand the concept of how currency exchanges work. You see, NATO’s budget is much larger when you compare the budget of Russia as exchanged into USD. But Russia doesn’t purchase its arms in USD and in fact all of its homegrown armaments are orders of magnitude cheaper than anything in NATO’s arsenal which, due to the corruption of the MIC, is obviously hugely overpriced. So this means that NATO can have a budget nominally “10 times larger” yet Russia gets 10 times more “bang for the buck” on its equipment which means it can still match NATO’s inventory.
After all, how do you explain the fact that NATO’s budget is “ten times larger” yet Russia literally has more armor (tank, artillery, IFV’s) than all of NATO combined……?
And Russia’s Navy probably has more ships than MOST Nato combined, in fact U.S. only beats it via pure “tonnage”
“Top 10 Largest Navies in the World (by total number of warships and submarines – 2020):
China – 777
Russia – 603
North Korea – 492
United States – 490
Colombia – 453
Iran – 398
Egypt – 316
Thailand – 292
India – 285
Indonesia – 282”
That’s some budge you have!
By the way, about 30-50% of U.S.’s entire military budget goes just to the upkeep/maintenance of its 900 global bases and not to the actual development of arms, training, etc. Which means your budget is vastly overrated.
“As for WW2 that’s incorrect. In fact the Lend Lease was not authorized for USSR until november of 1941 only a month before the USSR had already broken the Germans back at the battle of Moscow and had them retreating. And then it only began to trickle in over the following year or two and the lend lease supplies did not hit high gear until 1943++ onward, at which point by then the USSR obviously was on its way towards Berlin.”
«From as early as August 1941 – just two months after the Nazi invasion of the USSR – American convoy ships supplied the Soviets with what would eventually amount to more than 14,000 airplanes, 44,000 jeeps, 375,000 trucks, 8,000 tractors and 12,000 tanks. Not to mention 1.5 million blankets, 15 million pairs of army boots, 2.6 million tons of petroleum products and 4.4 million tons of food supplies.
“The Americans gave us so many goods without which we wouldn’t have been able to form our reserves and continue the war”, admitted Georgy Zhukov, one of the Soviet Union’s most famous WWII generals.»
“You see, NATO’s budget is much larger when you compare the budget of Russia as exchanged into USD. But Russia doesn’t purchase its arms in USD and in fact all of its homegrown armaments are orders of magnitude cheaper than anything in NATO’s arsenal”
The military spending of NATO is 15-20 times bigger than that of the Russian Federation at exchange rate figures. RF weapons are cheaper, and so are RF soldiers pay and pensions, but not “orders of magnitude”, so probably in terms of comparable spending, NATO military budgets are “only” 10 times those of the Russian Federation. There is also the population and GDP per person issue: NATO has a population that is 6-7 times that of the Russian Federation and much higher GDP per person.
However inefficient NATO can overwhelm the Russian Federation if the USA wanted to start turning out military equipment. The only serious advantage the Russian Federation has: effective, large anti-aircraft systems, because since USSR times the military noticed that NATO operations depends absolutely on achieving air superiority, and large aircraft losses would be a very big problem. In USSR time anti-aircraft was a fifth armed force along, airforce, army, navy, strategic missiles, to underline its importance.
I don’t have time to go back and forth with you since you clearly are obsessed on the issue (since I’ve seen you post the same thing numerous times in every thread) but you’re wrong. Military analysts in the soviet union crunched the numbers and found lend lease only provided 4% of the total to the war effort and was not a significant percentage. By the time lend lease had any effect whatsoever it was 1943 and the war was already mostly won.
On the 2nd point, yes NATO still holds the edge in population and total USD, but Russian equipment and personnel hold the edge in quality and technology. Nato could not “overwhelm” anything. If the U.S. wanted to “turn out” equipment and joined a real war, the U.S. would not have any factories left to turn out equipment from because they would be destroyed by long range hypersonic missiles the U.S. has no defense for (like Avangard) because it is technologically behind.
I’m sure you’re aware of NATO’s own exercises and simulations they ran where they concluded they would lose.
You’re right on one thing though, NATO would not be able to achieve any air superiority, their entire air force would be shot out of the sky.
I think a lot of arm chair amateurs don’t quite understand the numbers involved. I’ll enlighten you as a quick example. The TOTAL main battle tank count in Germany is around 150 Leopard 2 tanks. In the UK, they have a total of 250 Challengers and France has similar numbers.
Yes, that means France, UK, and Germany have a combined 500-600 main battle tanks between the 3 of them. Russia as I’m sure you’re aware, counting reserves has in excess of 15,000 – 20,000 main battle tanks. Roughly the same disparities go when we compare airforces and fleets as well.
Like I said elsewhere, Russia could not invade all of Europe successfully, but all of NATO combined including the U.S. could not invade or defeat Russia on a neutral territory, it would lose, and that’s a fact.
Duplicate post. CC
This “NATO churning out tonnes of equipment and millions of soldiers” makes no sense for other reasons, too. We will not see such WW 2 total war ever again. Things would go over nuclear threshold before that. How to bring them to Russia, will Russians just watch the ships?And most of modern male populations cannot be made into soldiers any more anyway for any sort of mass mobilization effort.
There is a bit of both sides here, the truth is in between. Sufficient supplies to stem the German tide came at the right time to the Soviet Union, but were overall a much less significant contribution to victory than the USA wants to admit. Conversely, the Soviet Union downplayed the role of the Lease-lend Act but the logistics capability provided by trucks and jeeps vastly enhanced the mobility and supply capability of the Soviet army.
In this link you can read an American general state that the Soviet Union would have beaten Germany just in a longer time frame, and the Soviet government admitting that the supplies were very much needed and played a bigger role than they admitted.
As far as the capability of NATO to defeat Russia, that is an irrelevant point. NATO has performed poorly in most combat operations, but has a larger population base to draw on than Russia. Russia has strategic depths that NATO countries do not and a strong manufacturing base. My money would be on Russia but the contest is very much untested till the white flag is raised or we’re all radioactive dust.
Russian defense companies are government owned, they are substantially more efficient than the US system of using private corporations. As Nightvision remarked, the Russian government, paying their own companies in Rubles automatically gets a more efficient system than the US and with closer ties to the chaps actually pulling the trigger. I have designed military equipment for NATO and other countries, it’s a sad state of affairs – the political machinations that produce inefficient equipment design.
Lastly, a tip of the hat to Nightvision for some excellent Sitreps and big Thank You to the Vinyard team for publishing them.
Yep, exactly, I agree with that, it was all useful but the idea that USSR would have lost without the LL is preposterous and no one in the world believes that. It simply would have taken a little longer.
Thanks for your words.
How many tanks per month is the US currently producing? How many tanks per month can the US produce on a timescale of <1 year with current constraints on alloy components which the US no longer produces domestically?
In WWII the US was still an industrial powerhouse and the technological level of manufacturing allowed for relatively easy conversion of automotive manufacturing into arms producers. That’s hardly the case in a modern automotive plant that is very specifically designed for maximizing efficiency in the manufacturing process. Who’s going to reprogram all the robots?
Once NATO gears up, how long will it take to move equipment to Europe? In WWII sea transport was only constrained by German submarines and some air attack along coastal sections of the trip. Missiles change that equation, don’t they? And once the equipment arrives in Europe, how will that equipment be fueled? Are you assuming that Russia won’t or can’t attack European hydrocarbon infrastructure? Are you assuming that Russian gas deliveries to Europe will continue in a full war with NATO? If not, please explain Europe’s ability to maintain power generation and manufacturing without Russian gas and oil? How many months is the replacement time of an LNG ship, which aren’t made by US and European shipyards currently?
I’m sincerely interested in the details of this fantasy you’ve constructed. I’ll say that the US could, theoretically, build out the necessary arms and infrastructure, but first we’d need to open new mines, build new factories, etc. Have you ever been involved in mine construction? Even if the permitting is eliminated it is a massive undertaking that needs to be measured on a timescale of years. (btw, my personal depth is 495 meters below sea level, starting from +600 m. I actually know what I’m talking about) Seriously, how do you propose to accomplish this design without hand waving away the details of doing it?
The USA doesn’t pay $500 for a hammer, they pay $500 for a ‘Manually Operated Wood Fastener Impact Device’
Yes but the US far surpasses any navy as far as destroyers and carriers.Now many are saying carriers are floating coffins bases on new missile technology.
Carriers yes, destroyers, no.
Russian war ships may be smaller but carry a much bigger punch than the larger enemy vessels.
If any Afghans are captured, deliver them back to the Taliban. They will deal with them. Got to be really stupid to get conned by the same people twice, and lose, again.
Best to leave them and eliminate all of these volunteers and foreign mercs as fertilizer. It would be beyond pointless to reconcile with these mentally deranged group of people. Its more costly to ship them back, trials, etc, etc. who’s going to pay for all that.
These volunteering mercenaries are a lot worse than the local Ukrainian army who ‘may’ deserve some mercy. These foreigners went out of their own way, by their own choice, travel, only for the kill joy of Russians. Plain and simple.
There are much bigger issues at hand…
And to speak a little more on Phase 2, as continuation of the last report. Here is some further corroboration of things I’ve been saying:
Mi-6 warned the Office of the President and the General Staff that Russia is changing the tactics of warfare, now there will be no deep breakthroughs into the interior of Ukraine, but a methodical sweep of squares with phased campaigns. The new commander of the Russian troops will use the experience of the war in Syria, transforming it under Ukraine, in order to achieve success in specific military operations.”
“Military Chronicle” in a recent article cited the report from British intel to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and declared it inaccurate, pointing out the destruction of the airport in Dnipro, as a sign the Russian Army Forces are not going to limit their actions to a “methodical sweep of squares.”
British intelligence warned the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that Russia is changing the tactics of warfare, now there will be no deep breakthroughs into Ukraine, and a methodical sweep of squares with phased campaigns, but this is not accurate. Dnipro airport this afternoon was finally destroyed.
Given the ongoing accumulation of forces, and counting, it does not appear the Russian Army is about to get its forces localized around the areas already occupied or in dispute.
According to “Military Chronicle,”
”…Pentagon and British intelligence particularly noting the large number of formations and their concentration in one place – the deployment of the second and third echelons is noticed….”
“…There is a reasonable opinion that the second phase of the war will be completely different from the first. Apparently, Russia has decided on a full-scale war with all the ensuing consequences for the enemy….”
A full scale war is not limited to a “methodical sweep of squares,” the scope of the war has changed, the deliberate Russia waiting for a negotiated solution is over, there is no other solution but the utter defeat of Ukraine and their US/NATO masters.
Dear Saker, among the Russian troops are very many Muslims, they are Russians like the orthodox. It’s not only Christians fighting for the Rodina.. Don’t talk only of orthodoxy
«among the Russian troops are very many Muslims, they are Russians like the orthodox»
V. Putin has made very determinedly the point that the Russian Federation is multi-ethnic and internationalist, in the tradition of the USSR. Russian culture is not just for “whites”, plenty of yellow and brown people in the Russian Federation, and so many others. This is quite different from the “Greater Ruthenia” attitude of the ukrainian government, that has been repressing not just the russian community, but also the hungarian, bulgarian, rosyn, romanian and even greek communities (and the roma of course) in Ukraine.
This is what I want to see, for elsewhere it is somewhat disjointed. Thank you.
I have never doubted the Russia has the greatest military in the world, just as their people are the most decent and best of all white people in the world.
I read how many armies came to defeat them, and they lost many millions, starved, suffered and never ceased fighting, until they rid the invaders out of their lands. This war is to free the rest of the world from the yolk of Zionist, White, racist oppression and I don’t believe that Russia knew that this would become a movement to free the rest of this world. It is!
They set out, after numerous complaints, that your actions are clearly threatening Russia! The West spent months trying to cajole them again, with endless “talks” going nowhere, giving nothing fully believing that they were “snow niggers” as the saker aptly said. The west is so ignorant that is not really worth commenting on. But Russia, under Putin always saw them for what they were.
I think that we have seen all the “western weapons & sanctions”, but what we have not seen yet is the mass unrest in the West? It is surely coming. I think that this was the last gasp of a 60 year old empire, with propaganda, lies and a pile of garbage on top.
Perhaps confirmation bias, but the quietness of the pentagon has had me thinking all along that they don’t like what they’re seeing. I don’t count retired generals on TV. The video certainly speaks to that, as well as the quality of Ukrainian forces generally. Shocking that the lecturer just keeps saying, the Russians have this … you don’t. How terrified were those officers to hear they’d better learn to read a map?
I’m not qualified to have a real opinion, but my mind keeps coming back to when the Ukrainians run out of fuel on hand it will be rapid collapse. So while things could stretch on for weeks or months, high intensity phases of the conflict could also end pretty rapidly. Certainly the Donbas grouping had more supplies than Mariupol, but how much more and have they gotten any significant resupply in weeks? Maybe that’s part of the point of the pace? The regular army guys aren’t likely to stay around long with dwindling supplies; surrender is the rational decision.
“I’m not qualified to have a real opinion, but my mind keeps coming back to when the Ukrainians run out of fuel on hand it will be rapid collapse. So while things could stretch on for weeks or months, high intensity phases of the conflict could also end pretty rapidly.”
Indeed my impression is that so far the RF military have been attacking not the ukrainian military, but the ukrainian logistics, keeping in mind the well known saying that “an army marches on its belly”. The ukrainians can be resupplied from Poland or Romania, but that’s a long way from the Dnipro region. That’s why also the Black Sea ports, especially Kherson but also Odessa and Nykolaev, are so important, and the RF fleet is blocking them.
https://portkherson.com/en/ “Sea gate of the Dnieper”
I don’t see modern trench warfare having to last months or years like in WW1. 1.There was only primitive aviation then. 2. There was no satellite reconnaissance then like persona or keyhole to meticulously document a stationary enemy on a restricted area. Some of these satellites can even read numberplates I am told. 3. There was no glonass or laser targeting in1914. I remember reading that in WW2 for example it took hundreds of bombs dropped for at least 1 to strike gold. Often thousands were dropped and all missed the target.4. Modern seismographs technology as used in mining and oil exploration can effectively locate bunkers and trenches over huge areas. Same with synthetic aperture radars for surface scanning. 5.They didn’t have BETAB bunker busting bombs, tyulpan or RPO shmel in 1914. In my view, if Russian general staff plans well, Donbass cauldron won’t hold one month as a coherent resistant force. Even the Germans eventually lost out on the Siegfried line back then. Kramatorsk and Slaviansk should be indeed hard to liberate but by then significant cqb experience will have been garnered in the Donbass trenches and in Mariupol. This is like a massive counter terrorist operation. A huge beslan with tens of thousands of shaheeds and hostages. If you don’t liberate hostages withhuge civilian casualties, the terrorists will still kill the hostages anyways. These people should maybe have read between the lines and evacuated to Russia the moment they realized a war was imminent. Maybe it wasn’t so obvious from their perspective so I don’t blame them. The game will start to change when it comes to western Ukraine where the human shield strategy won’t be an option. It’s easy to use novorossians as human shields but will they also use Galicians?
Tech is nice but doesn’t kill troops living in trenches. There are videos 5 years old of the Donbass LOC with Ukraine drones being used to correct Ukraine artillery against the trench line. The artillery comes close, but close doesn’t count. I think only that thermobaric stuff that Russia supposedly has might work.
So many books I read at school and backed up by documentaries on how Britain won WW2. This despite losing its Empire and the resultant 20 years of austerity brought on by billions in debt accrued (mostly to . There are white lies and there’s psychotic delusion. Losing = Winning, it’s great.
Columbia 5th WTF? Must need them for the Cocaine runs to the CIA.
It will be more balanced in addition to report Ukraine loss, Russia loss also get reported. Surely Russia has some loss and surely a war is won by the difference of military strength in addition to the will power of the engaged nations.
Thank You for the above. We shall circle back here.
The other day I have watched a vid about the condition of a refugee camp in Germany for ukrs. It appeared to be a large stadium or hall, with living quarters separated about 10×10 meters by plastic sheets, beds inside and such.
The guy making the vid seemed not to have understood, that the amount of the refugees necessitated these living arrangements. He was thinking, that the lads dying in ukr are doing it for “the west” and the “west” owed them – the refugees for their sacrifice.
It was unreal.
These people are the definition of an entitled crowd. A month into the war he is already expecting apartments, welfare checks and the whole infrastructure up and running.
I understand. They have been pumped full of surplus gear, free fed cash and ill advise. Will they ever wake up? Will the US public?
The problem though is, that they have nothing to go back to. Their country WAS nothing but a puppet-show masquerading as a nation – and now – not much left of even that to speak of. Once their khazarian overlords run off – even the morsels, they used to live off shall disappear…a friggin tragedy in the making.
It is in ruin.
Scary….we are talking tens of millions of people here…living in a fantasy world.
Hope VVP has it figured out some…
One thing I am hopeful about – (((everyone))) is gone to israel…and such. It can only get better from here.
Not bad, for an anti-nazist operation…😁
About the presentation by Dr. Phillip Karber: sobering, yet alarming – keep an eye on the dates during – this crap is in the making for a decade the very least. The manufacturing base of the EU needs to b shut down – both by starving it from energy and raw materials – not even mentioning supporting social unrest schemes. Eff em.
Offer Poland Lvov and security guarantees in order to leave natoistan. Same with Hungary, Romania.
The first half of Karber’s talk is a history of Ukraine that completely ignores the US coup and Nuland picking the next Ukie government.
“When the conflict started” and “When all hell breaks loose in Donbas …” .
Karber – a member of the Potomac Foundation neocon think tank – claims NATO was training the AFU.
At least he has a realistic view of the relative capacities of the US and RF. Ignore the first 26 minutes of the video.
Twitter suspends accounts that violate the Twitter Rules. Learn more
[Anyone have RWA’s Telegram address, please?]
their link is t.met/RWApodcast
Damn…. I was anticipating this.
Surprised they lasted this long.
And they were fastidious in avoiding posting anything that contravened twitter “guidelines”.
This is 100% an information war.
Wonderful report, in every sense of the word!!
I see many attempts by western press for example the guardian to say the big threat to Russia is direct nato involvement. From the evidence this would be primarily light infantry entering into territory where Russia has air superiority. This is not Libya or Iraq. They won’t do it because it would be suicide.
And russia isn’t have way across the world from ukraine like the khazarian infested united states.
What will poor NAZIlensky do now? Shaming and badgering the N.A.T.O. (Nuclear Armed Terrorist Organization) panty- wastes isn’t working. The fake media war in the west is no match for REALITY on the ground. Though many western lemmings still believe the B.S. coming out of the corporate owned Military Industrial Congressional Complex media. Question : Was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ grandfather Fritz von Scholz a high ranking member of the Waffen- SS?
Some videos for today.
Mariupol fighting | Tank battle rages near “Azov” battalion’s last stronghold:
Kalibr missile salvo from Russian warship:
Independent American journalist Patrick Lancaster’s family was almost hit by a Kiev-regime Tochka-U missile:
According to F. William Engdahl, in the New Eastern Outlook website, now the circular firing squad GANG of murderers and thieves of N.A.T.O. are causing a catastrophic global diesel shortage. And blaming Russia, of course. Are these people even human? Europe may run out of diesel very soon, and all hell is gonna break loose. To HELL with these sub-human western elites, and soon they will join their god lucifer in paradise.
If the Russian forces have access to the air intakes, all they need is a couple tons of dry ice to put everyone in that compound to sleep forever.
The early paragraph “Ukrainians are not allowed to film or report accurately on this, but on social media channels many “remembrances” from the families of the troops lost have appeared, verifying the damage.” reminds me of a statistics and probability theory class decades ago.
The lecturer referred to a theorist, might have been Polish but I have forgotten now, who worked out that the Germans were heading for defeat. The data he used was the death notices in the newspaper that enabled him to estimate the attrition rate against the young male segment of the German population and that they had to be taking heavy losses. Naturally at the time this was just a private conclusion.
Crews from NATO and non-NATO partners compete in defensive/offensive mounted and dismounted operations. Platoons rotate throughout 12 events with 1,500 possible points in total. The first challenge was held in 2016, with Germany taking first place. The 2017 challenge saw Austria placing first, with Germany and the U.S. taking second and third, respectively. The competition has not been held since 2018.
Above is 80% false—Was in grafe/nato live fire training base- building the new base housing facilities in 1988-1991—they were holding this competition then and have probably continued to do so but had to delete the wiki history for cover of the always never first place. Had many a fine german brew with some of the tankers and the mericans never won first–somewhere in the middle.
BTW the BFV-bradley fighting veh had a tow missile-wire guided-guys said they were worthless shooting at target–had to bounce them off the ground.
Google or whatever and its always legendary–just more bullshit illusion.
Thanks for the real record, gave me a chuckle
Any western excited idiot captured should be displayed in TV, military court martialed as enemy combatant and sent to Siberia for 20 years waiting an appeal. Others passed through arms as the gringos did in the bulge to German bradenburgueurs
You are talking about the Englishman captured today at Mariupol, I assume. Yes, that has the potential to turn into a scandal making the UK (and the rest of NATO) look bad.
I wonder if this British guy was a just a regular mercenary or if he was an elite commando functioning as an advisor to Nazi troops. We shall soon find out.
Twitter just suspended two pro-Russian accounts. Happened today. Bizarre thing about it is both accounts were not peddling lies or hype. They were just providing war news updates, covering events from Russia’s perspective.
I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Twitter is suspending numerous other pro-Russian accounts. Maybe they will even suspend Russia-neutral accounts. Let’s see.
Also, I can’t help but wonder if these sudden Twitter suspensions are linked to today’s news about Mariupol. 1,000 Nazis just surrendered there, according to OSINT reports. Maybe US/NATO/UKR is feeling anxious about this, and is trying to do damage control by limiting the spread of this news.
1812 Napoleon decided to attack Russian Empire – Ended up with Russian Army in Paris.
1945 Hitler decided to attack Soviet Union – Ended up with Russian Army in Berlin.
2022 Russia decided to strike first on Ukraine – Should ended up both in Paris & Berlin, and let those AngloZionist Empire knew that this time Russia is the one who take control over the Narrative.
Change “2022 Russia decided to strike first on Ukraine” to “2014 USA decided to fuel Ukraine civil war against Russia”
Another masterful sitrep, Nightvision.
Glad that you touched upon Dnepropetrovsk. I get the impression that outside of the Donbass, its by far the most important city for Russia to take, and for Kiev to keep. Far more important than even Kiev,because of its big industries, logistical importance and having an intellectual capital equal to that of Kiev.
Because of this, I wonder if there would actually be less damage inside the main cities in Dnepropetrovsk, and therefore less intense fighting, as the ukronazis realise that if this place is destroyed, then the Ukraine project has no reason to continue? Maybe less Azov brought there from the rest of the country and a much tighter relation between the local fighters and oligarchs.
The Donbass is different because these animals wanted to punish the people living there anyway, and were and are indifferent to the infrastructure destroyed
Re: next phases
NATO will likely organize a large Army Group sized force of Kiev Nationalists plus Volunteers over the next 3-9 months in Western Ukraine. This cannon fodder could be used in a big Spring Counter Offensive.
The War Party politicians are Teeing up this narrative.
Question – how does the RF and it’s Ukrainians Allies Counter the NATO Army Group in Western Ukraine and Poland ?
There will be no Western Ukraine in 3-9 months. Maybe, no NATO either.
Question – how does the RF and it’s Ukrainians Allies Counter the NATO Army Group in Western Ukraine and Poland ?
Exile on April 13, 2022 · at 12:35 am EST/EDT
In Poland? nothing, unless they engage in cross-border fire.
In Galicia? pin with hypersonics, and finish with heavy bombers.
You might take out a few Galicianist shrines, while you’re at it.
Magnificent summary. Been relying on a dozen or so telegram and bit chute sites. Why bother? You’ve covered it all and then some. Thank you!