For the Saker Blog by Saker Staff
This is too good not to be credited to Brian Berletic:
The United States (and small collective west) is refusing to choose the option that makes sense. This option is coexistence with the rest of the world. Their objective of maintaining primacy over the rest of the world is no longer attainable.
The Big Refuse is of course Lloyd Austin demanding that Russia cease fire. Yeah, NO! See Gonazalo Lira here: http://thesaker.is/gonzalo-lira-why-did-lloyd-austin-call-sergei-shoigu/
Gonzalo Lira calculated the current rate of attrition:
At the current rate of attrition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will see 10,000 soldiers die by the end of this month, another 20,000 dead by the end of June. This war cannot be won by Ukraine—it’s over. The only solution is to sue for peace. But the US won’t allow this.
Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Polyansky stated that the Russian position on Kiev’s desire to join the EU has changed. It is now similar to the position on Ukraine’s accession to NATO. He also noted that he does not see diplomatic options for resolving the situation in Ukraine at the moment, given Kiev’s position. Polyansky added that without demilitarization and denazification, peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved.
OK, the non-news of the last days: The pontoon bridges
It was stunning in a not very positive way to see how many concern trolls simply kept reporting a purported failure of the Russian soldiers to cross the pontoon bridges over the Severnyi Donets river as well as misinterpreting the supposed loss of a bunch of tanks. Up to five times, these trolls reported, the Russians tried to cross a pontoon bridge.
The hint though was that nothing was reported in reliable Russian sources, yet, it did not stop the concern trolls. Martynov weighs in:
This overall change of the background of SMO may be in the foundation of obviously grossly exaggerated “peremoga” (victory in Ukie) by “annihilating” some whole battalion of “Russian” armor at some Severnyi Donets river crossing, which, as VSU said (red flag immediately) was “attempted five times in a row”. That doesn’t sound like Russian Armed Forces. I cannot find anything on this in Russian sources…
Once you know that this is propaganda, you can understand things like this:
After blowing up the pontoon, we were surrounded: the appeal of the captured AFU officer
The captured military officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Tushevsky called on the Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms and stop the senseless bloodshed.
He said that he was captured while performing a combat mission – undermining the pontoon. On the way back he was surrounded and, after being wounded, surrendered.
“I want to appeal to my comrades: lay down your arms, nobody needs this war,” said the captive “VSUshnik”.
The commentator here from Defense Politics Asia has the right idea. He shows the footage available in the first half of his video and in the second half he explains without doubt that those pontoon bridges mean nothing to the overall Russian advance, the shape of the battlefield and Russian forces crossed the river as they had set out to do. There is no evidence of a batch of dead Russian soldiers, although there must have been casualties. This is a longer video so stay with it and hear the second half.
And if you do not know yet that this is Ukrainian BS, please hear the Russian MoD as to who destroyed who:
🇷🇺📹Footage of destruction of pontoon crossing and AFU units attempting to cross Seversky Donets River
◽️ During reconnaissance and search operations of a motorized rifle unit of the Russian Armed Forces, a UAV crew detected an AFU unit with infantry fighting vehicles attempting to cross using an induced pontoon crossing.
💥 Artillery fire completely destroyed the pontoon crossing and sank. The enemy armoured vehicles with their crews that had managed to cross on the pontoons were destroyed by Russian artillery fire and infantry fighting vehicle crews during the battle. Some of the AFU armoured vehicles were seized by Russian servicemen.
The next bit of propaganda is out there: Ukraine of course wins the battle of Kharkov/Kharkiv (of course, this battle has not happened yet and the Russians are just fixing the Ukrainian forces in place and denying them maneuverability).
We have to explain again:
- Russia is fighting a limited action.
- The Ukraine is trying to fight a full scale war.
Russia is advancing steadily without letting itself be massacred at some pontoon bridge. Be careful out there with this kind of irresponsible reporting.
Remember in the previous sitrep we said .. Watch Now! Things are beginning to move right through the length of the LOC. Yesterday it looked like this:
The Readovka map is a little more detailed:
Take a look at one situation only – around Severodonetsk.
- 1. The enemy failed in his attempts to hold Voevodovka. The bridge between Rubezhnoye and Severodonetsk was blown up.
- 2. The battles for Belogorovka continue. The main supply route Soledar-Lysichansk is under fire from the Russian Armed Forces. Vehicle traffic is unsafe. The enemy shells the crossing near Belogorovka.
- 3. An offensive is developing north of Popasnaya in the direction of Kamyshevakhi + Russians are probing the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Artemovsk.
- 4. There are battles for Orekhovo and Toshkovo.
- 5. There is also fighting on the outskirts of Severodonetsk.
- 6. The battles for Privolye have begun.
With the Russian offense across the complete LOC, we are of course in Fog of War and details are not immediately available, or even relevant. By the time we post something like this, the situation has changed.
Special Forces of the Interior Ministry of the DPR storm “Azovstal”, breaking through the walls – https://t.me/intelslava/28694 There are also whispers from the Chinese media that another attempt at an exchange of some kind is being talked about.
On Snake Island and in the late afternoon briefing … 💥 1 Bayraktar-TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1597) is shot down in the air over Snake Island and 3 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles are intercepted. This of course has value only for the interest and it is clear that those that are pulling the Ukrainian strings here, really want to have Odesa.
Early Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry
💥High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit
- – 5 command posts and
- – 2 ammunition depots near Spornoe and Berestovoe in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
- The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 100 nationalists and up to 23 armoured and motor vehicles.
✈️💥Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit
- – 43 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.
💥Missile troops and artillery have hit
- – 18 command posts,
- – 543 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration,
- – 1 ammunition depot near Lubomirovka, Kherson Region, as well as
- – 23 AFU artillery units at firing positions near Verkhnekamenskoe, Krasnyi Liman, Drobyshevo, Yarovaya, Korobochkino and Gusarovka throughout the night.
💥Russian air defence means overnight have shot down
- – 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Chkalovskoe, Demetievka, Klinsk, Glubokoe, Balakleya, Goptovka in Kharkov Region, Staromikhailovka, Spartak, Elenovka in Donetsk People’s Republic, Petrovenki and Severodonetsk in Lugansk People’s Republic, including
- – 1 Bayraktar-TB2 over Mankovka in Kharkov Region.
In addition, 3 rockets of Smerch multiple-launch rocket system have been intercepted Izyum, Semenovka and Snezhkovka in Kharkov Region.
Not too bad for a night’s work!
All those weapons being purportedly sent to the Ukraine? – Well the logistics are fut
The video summary is: The UK Ministry of Defence admits it is scouring the globe for Russian and Soviet stockpiles of military equipment;
- UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace admits that the most optimal equipment to send Ukraine is equipment they are already familiar with;
- Western equipment takes weeks, months, and in some cases years to not just learn to operate, but integrate tactically and strategically into combined arms warfare;
- The army the US and NATO spent 8 years building before this most recent conflict is being destroyed faster than the US and NATO can replace it – and it wasn’t an optimal force to begin with;
- A similar process played out in Syria from 2015 onward, ultimately failing and necessitating the direct military intervention by NATO (the US and Turkey) in Syria to occupy parts of the country, spoil victory/reconstruction, and preserve the remnants of their proxy force;
- Direct Western involvement in Ukraine, similar to the “buffer zones” created in Syria, is likely the best choice among the West’s poor choices left.
And then, you see things like this:
🇺🇦⚡️The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine forbade soldiers and officers to publicly criticize foreign military equipment
- 1. A new order was received by the troops.
- 2. Servicemen are forbidden to speak publicly in the media and social networks negatively about military equipment supplied from abroad.
- 3. Violators are waiting for disciplinary action, as well as removal from office.
- 4. The new document was developed at the request of the media people of Zelensky’s office.
- 5. The Kiev leadership is closely monitoring the situation. It was revealed that Ukrainian militants are now actively criticizing American M-113 armored personnel carriers, Javelin complexes, and British anti-aircraft systems. In addition, Polish tanks and Czech Dana howitzers began to be criticized.
Clearly weapons delivery to the Ukraine is not as rosy as what you see in the western reports.
Now that you’ve seen the mod report, it should be easy to follow the detail from Readovka – here machine translated:
- Over the past day, the topic of the loss of an entire battalion at the Seversky Donets River crossing near Belogorovka was actively discussed. There are a lot of versions of events: from the negligent attitude of the command staff on the ground, to the heroic feat of the soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces during heavy battles. For example, former DPR Defense Minister Igor Strelkov chose an interesting tactic – ” I know, but I won’t tell you about the BTGr’s personal losses at the crossing.” One thing is for sure-the losses are great, but without having been in this “infernal hell” it is impossible to say with certainty why they were incurred.
- The situation on the fronts today is as follows:
- The situation on the Kharkiv front continues to be very tense. Units of the Russian Armed Forces shelled the positions of Ukrainian troops in the areas of the settlements of Petrovka, Nursery, Russkie Tishki and Ternovaya in order to prevent their further advance.
- The Izyum front. Last night, the village of Dolgenkoe was liberated from the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Slavyansk direction. Unfortunately, traces of terrible outrages were once again found on the site. Ukrainian nationalists abused and killed a woman in Kharkiv region. The body was found in the village of Dolgenke, liberated from the Ukrainian Armed Forces last night, by Ukrainian militants against the civilian population. According to unconfirmed reports, another Ukrainian Air Force plane was shot down north-west of Izyum.
- Luhansk front. The bridge connecting Rubizhne and Severodonetsk was blown up. The main supply route Soledar-Lisichansk is under fire from the Allied forces. To the north of Popasnaya, an offensive is developing in the direction of Kamyshevakha. The beginning of the battles for Privolye is celebrated. In turn, the AFU command continues to strengthen the group in Artemivsk (Bakhmut )in order to prevent a breakthrough from Popasna.
- On the Donetsk front, the Allied forces are trying to advance towards the settlements of Marinka and Novomikhailovka. In the afternoon, it was reported that the People’s Militia of the DPR and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation stormed the settlements of Kamenka and Novoselovka-2.
- Zaporozhye front. Heavy fighting is taking place on the outskirts of Ugledar. The locality of Pavlovka, which is adjacent to the south-western outskirts of Ugledar, passed several times from the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
- On the southern front, there is another loss of the Ukrainian Air Force near Zmeyny. This time, a 4th-generation MiG-29 fighter crashed into the Black Sea. The Ukrainian command is preparing an offensive by the forces of the 28th and 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade in the Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih directions. There is a systematic artillery attack on the positions of our troops in Vysokopolye and Knyazevka.
- Calibration today looked as follows: In Nikolaev the warehouse with ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is destroyed. Eyewitnesses report a column of black smoke at the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces; 3 bridges necessary for the transfer of Ukrainian forces were blown up in the Kharkiv region; work was carried out on separate objects in Odessa.
- Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to shell Kherson. The cities of the Donetsk People’s Republic continue to be under heavy shelling. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been shelling the territory of the DPR since morning. Two people were killed, at least eight were injured, and the Kuibyshevsky, Petrovsky, and Kirovsky districts of Donetsk and Staromikhailovka were the most affected. Also, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled Dokuchaevsk – one person was killed, four were wounded, among them two RT cameramen were injured.
- The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation will conduct an investigation into the fact of the shelling of the Belgorod region. Bastrykin instructed to open a criminal case.
- An interesting fact is that NATO, in the course of saturating the Ukrainian front with its own weapons samples, sends outdated Western scrap metal under the “Russian press”. Surprisingly, sometimes it even comes to anti-aircraft guns of the Second World War.
And even now, the situation has changed.
And we end with a partial quote from Mr Lavrov. This complete video and transcript will be posted when available as it was still live when someone snagged the quote. Seemingly the Russian forces will strengthen the rear echelons. We have to abide by the fact that it now looks like Russia is going to own the Ukraine, or part of it.
As other analysts suggested we also believe it’s now time for Kremlin to deploy more troops on the rear, the current number of Russian troops involved in the special military operation in Ukraine is enough to win the war but it will take more time than expected and it’s impossible to avoid overstretching as the involved brigades (100/120k soldiers in total) cannot fight simultaneously on too many fronts, latest advances in Donbass have been achieved thanks to a massive redeployment, in the region, of the troops initially deployed in other areas, thus some peripheral areas like several settlements in the Northern Kharkov region lately had to be abandoned without fighting, leaving behind their citizens at mercy of Neo-Nazi militias, which is unacceptable.
While it was acceptable to withdraw from areas that were under Russian control for just a few days, it’s simply immoral to withdraw from areas that have been under Russian control already for 2 months.
That is it for today. Enjoy your discussion and please be careful on the Ukie propaganda. It is everywhere.
The reporting of this war is seemingly just as chaotic as the war itself. I do consider what is shared by the Saker approved individuals who present the available material here to be overall the most authentic and reality based.
It’s ultimately about faith for me. I do truly witness what’s taking place as a war not only between flesh and blood, but most clearly also against and between powers and principalities.
Good vs evil seems like hyperbole to some, not myself though. The RF either emerges victorious or humanity shall be decimated, defiled and ultimately destroyed.
Very true. I agree.
Thank you Saker Staff this was a very good and informative report.
I wonder why the US, the attacker in truth, is seeking ceasefire?
– rearm and train
– get Azovstal foreigners out without revealing their secrets
– for own audience
Looking forward to hearing Lira on this.
I will be very happy when Russia takes Odessa. Yes I shall open a bottle of my best wine.
This truly is a war against the pronoun confused beasts of evil and what is left of humanity.
May a God destroy the evil enemies of Russia and through them save so many others and from that saving may Russia be blessed a million fold.
I truly hope that neither Russia, or the LDPR agree to any Azov nazi evacuation schemes from azovstal. This vermin must either surrender or perish. There is no place for these moral degenerates in ukraine, or anywhere else. If they are released and allowed to go their own way, their hatred, resentment, and fanaticism will only increase many times fold. They will then be in full bat-shit crazy revenge mode, and much worse than before, and will be back somewhere wreaking havoc. Any schemes to release this nazi gutter trash will be very disappointing and expose the Russian and LDPR side as weak. Remember when the LDPR forces back in 2015 allowed the ukrops to go into the Donetsk airport complex (after it was captured by LDPR forces), after the ukrops promised not to start fighting and bombing the city again? That promise was broken quickly, and led to a second battle for the areas that LDPR gained control of. DO NOT take mercy on these people. Going soft now would be a serious compromise of Russian and LDPR forces resolve and image. The urkops are getting battered, and the west is sweating and desperate. Do not allow them any reprieve. Only full agreement to Russia’s terms presented to the US and NATO back in December of 2021 can end this.
Make no mistake. All the luxury cars driving out of West Ukraine with rich hateful neo-nazis and criminals are being welcomed in Europe.
Just yesterday I heard in a Scandinavian country people proud praising the new refugee team as wealthy Ukrainians.
People are unsatisfied with ISIS, Tamil Tigers, PLO and traitors from Iraq and Afghanistan, Somalia, because they are poor.
These Ukrainians have already started to make problems in Spain, Norway and 1 knife killing in Germany.
I expect they will end up in Scandinavian Government positions like in Canada with their fascist sympathies ………..LOL. The stupidity never stops……………………Frank Zappa https://ok.ru/video/13919980181
If they did agree to some sort of deal Russia should only exchange the wounded Azovs who have missing limbs only (there are some pics that show some of the wounded have lost limbs). That way such Azov members would not be able to return to battle and then there care would then become the burden of the Ukrainian government. No sense on spending time and energy on prosecuting wounded Azov’s who’ve had their arms, hands, or legs blown off. Their lives are screwed forever anyway.
Do they really have pigs down their in Azovstal or was that Telegram video an illusion ?
About Nato high ranking commanders being captured from Azovstal by the Russian, please check out these links concerning four or more, with photos. Is that the reason for the initiation of the call to Shoigu by Austin?
Don’t worry – it’s going by the book. But like with any book – the realization isn’t quite what we imagined.
What the devil meant for evil, God turned into god – as it is written in the story of Joseph.
Yes God brings all things together for good
I see it all the time!.
Though I’m not religious, I say AMEN! As an American who lived through the first Cold War (half my life literally was spent under the spectre of nuclear annihilation), it’s a very strange feeling to find myself rooting for Putin and Russia. But, reality shows us that Russia are the good guys in this war against the globalists. It’s not Russia vs. Ukraine, it’s Russia vs. The Globalists/New World Order. The future of mankind hangs in the balance. Russia simply must win!
I’d like to see the day when the average Ukrainian finally wakes up and sees how he was shafted multiple times by the Uncle Sam and co. He’s going to read his history books explaining how that comedian good at playing piano with his …. led his country into ruins. And not only that, but caused so much unnecessary troubles for Ukraine’s closest natural ally and friend, Russia. It should be interesting to see that.
I couldn’t agree more. I too, a Canadian veteran who lived through the Col War, pray for total Russian victory – which I believe will come sooner than we think. Any honest westerner with any integrity knows Ukraine is an embarrassment. It is too bad they send their boys out to die at the rate of 6-700 per day. Criminals!
Interesting forum read about battle of Donbass in sept 1943:
Absolutely same places as today battle…
The collapse of the Donets front. 1-8 September 1943
There’s a song by The Police which fits nicely with that – Every Breath You Make
‘ Every breath you make
And every move you make
Every bond you break
Every step you take
I’ll be watching you.
Every single day
And every word you say
Every game you play
Every night you stay
I’ll be watching you.
Oh, can’t you see
You belong to me
How my poor heart aches
With every step you take . . . ‘
I suppose if Russia kills all their sons it’s going to be more difficult to win hearts and minds in the short – medium terms. The Americans have chosen well in that a few of their Nazi commanders are able to ensure no massive regular troop desertions . . . . . yet.
I tried to read Mikhail Sholokhov’s “And Quiet Flows the Don” in my youth, but never finished it. I might give it another try – it was my moms favorite.
What I do remember was the story of the collapse of the Russian army described there – might we get a re-run?
Yes, but this time ukronazi army playing that role.
Thanks so much for that. What a find!!!
On a more somber note, if you can take the 18+++ nature of the videos, here is what is left of those battles:
On rare occasions the excavators run into remains from the Revolution or First World War, which just goes to show one the history of these lands:
Chernobyl Miniseries – The Old Woman & the Cow Scene
There were also a couple of times, over the past few years, where the troops digging fortifications for the current conflict stumbled upon WWII remains and altered the excavation team. I wonder if they knew they would be the next to go into that soil?
I find it amazing, with all of the progressive enlightened rhetoric coming out of the United States about a New World Order and Global Governance, that Obama/Biden’s America will add another layer of bodies to those fields and possibly trigger World War III.
The only comfort in all of this is that nothing has changed about humanity and that the future is very predictable: every 80 years another layer of corpses and weapons will be laid down in the fields of Southern Ukraine. One can bank on it. (sigh)
“with all of the progressive enlightened rhetoric coming out of the United States about a New World Order” ?
Nothing of that rhetoric is and was ever enlightend or even progressive – unless you think century long lying and “might is right” still possess these attributes – on the contrary they are riding into the last battle, ahead of them there only lies the desert and death – that was their destiny right fromt the beginning of time and forever will be.
The “Light” they saw was that of a demon and the progression was always one down the evolutionary ladder – for this reason they naturally are in a very intimate relationship with death and it’s symbols.
” if the EU really approves the procedure for the start of the adoption of Ukraine, it will mean the end of the European Union, the Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko.said”.
Very interesting quote indeed.
The whole Gay-7 is one big joke. Nothing of value comes out from their mouth and nothing makes sense.
“Putin and Scholz agreed to continue chatting on Ukraine through various channels”, the Kremlin said.
“Scholz accused Putin for causing famine on the whole planet, and said Russia was responsible for making peace soon with Ukraine on the cocaine sniffer’s terms.
Agree. If Ukraine continue bs, it will mean the end of Ukraine. If EU makes more junky funky, it will mean the end of EU. Its that easy.
Seems the Gay-7 children need some father figure to lead them through the night.
Brian Ferry, help me make it through the night. https://youtu.be/F2Q4ZLwee0w
I have ask once again: based on what facts are the claim of 5,000 killed Ukie soldiers during first two weeks of May?
During Jom Kippur war Syria and Egypt lost 2,300 tanks and 11,000 soldiers death (ratio 1 to 5). On average there were 25 soldiers per combat km2. In more modern warfare like now in Ukraine even less. The point here is that even if you flatten and burn down 1km2 totally you likely kill or wounded 10-15 soldiers on average. This is no more WW1 or WW2. The more fire power armies now have the less they are actually killing.
This carefully studied military history fact seems to be too poorly understood.
Oh dear, the butt hurt is strong in this one.
So, Matias, if you had read the article you would have understood that the 5k Ukrainian loss was a calculation done by Gonzalo Lira who is in Kharkov.
If you had read the previous Sitreps you would know that the Ukrainians are in static positions with limited fuel and mobility. You would also know that the Russians are standing off and constantly pounding the entrenched AFU with artillery (~30 km range), rockets (long range), helicopter and aircraft strikes. Drones and satellite services are used to correct and adjust accuracy as needed. You would also know that the AFU had an estimated 120K soldiers at the contact line with LDNR.
The 5K figure in first half of May is easy to understand when you take these factors into account.
Now – if you have the capacity to debunk Lira’s numbers based on your first hand observations at the battle line, or true studies of modern conflict (hint – there are none) then please feel free to do so. If not, you are entitled to your opinion, no matter how …. misguided … I or others might think it is. I look forward to your solid, impeccably crafted, dissertation on why Lira is inaccurate. ;-)
This also depends on density of the troops.
With Ukrainians in dug in positions near cities the spread you indicate of 10/km2 can be exceeded. Right now in particular you have a higher density battle with troops in close quarters.
Also depends on whether you count the conscripted as combatants v regulars and reserves.
In the arch Kharkov – Mariupol roughly Kiev military had 500 combat troops per km as of 24.Feb ( very rough calculation I made )
Care to look at the carnage? Or do you prefer to read carefully scripted papers?
500 kia per day x 14 days = 7,000
Ukraine is now on its third conscription. That’s not something you do when you are winning, it’s what you do when your troops are being slaughtered and you are too stupid to surrender.
Here is a good satellite map where are marks many details from the frontline, like trence positions.
It is from the Defence Politica Asia:
Informative report, thanks
‘And we end with a partial quote from Mr Lavrov.’
Mr Lavrov has made some very strong statements in the last day or two. In particular, his most recent statement at Russia’s Foreign and Defense Policy Council accuses the West of declaring a “total hybrid war” against Russia, resorting to open “robbery” and “state piracy”. Those are strong words form any diplomat and, so far as I’m able to recall, are unprecedented form this one:
That may or may not be seen as directly related to the statement about strengthening Russian forces, but posting a complete transcript of both would seem worthwhile I think.
Not a reply ,been a while since I posted on vineyard because not being a military man I have little knowledge of such.
Returning from a short visit to mainland Europe having talked to ordinary people who get their “hands dirty working” I have learned that people no longer believe the BS from our assumed masters …people think that the political leaders have empty heads….so not all is as people here sometimes say ….have faith in the souls of human beings who can think for themselves
Unfortunately I don’t recognize this observation as applicable to the Netherlands. Knowing a bit about Ukraine and regime changes as standard US policy I have been following this closely since 2014. The Msm outlets propaganda and superficial coverage and whitewashing made me switch them off since 24 Feb.
However the 99% that didn’t are tctally clueless about the real situation
I don’t see any prospect of that changing unless their checkbooks are affected negatively but all the sanctions. But by then it will be too late.
Actually the Netherlands is where I encountered such sentiments re empty heads.Of course LGB#€¥Q flag is flying beside yellow and blue.even scaffolding nets are this way.
That was my observation for what it’s worth.
I like to talk to those I meet in the course of the days activities.
The lunatics in charge and their minions are Fu**€d but consider how many people can’t be bothered to vote and then a different picture appears,however, this will not end well For €urope because of the airheads in charge and their brainwashed electorates.
I am now going to refer to NATO as the Pirates.
An excellent summation of what they are,
Or you could refer to it as what it really is, the 4th Reich.
Indeed, it is somehow gratifying to see the Five Eyes & their quislings finally come out of the closet and reveal their true Fascist character..
Lavrov made strong statements before. He’s another decent guy up there, probably another one you can make a deal with based on just a handshake (looks that way).
Lavrov says ‘so many p*ssies’ in US presidential campaign
Not conviced at all
In March sitreps Ukrainian army was near collapse supposedly it’s clearly not the case
What we is a glacial advance on Donbass while Russia is retreating from thé North of Ukraine
Do you realize how big Ukraine is. Small movements on map are actually no small feat.
Further that ration Russia to Ukrainian troops is less than1:1
That Russia is not just fighting a war they also have to rebuild the areas won else they have a humanitarian crisis. This has never been done on this scale before. A world first.
Finally the wet mud right now is not ideal. And places are mined and booby trapped by retreating troops.
That said given the ratio of troops this was never going to be easy. Troop numbers are matched with advantage Ukraine. Russia’s edge comes from air and technical.
Another 50 to 100,000 Russian troops would help and my guess if those are coming once the situation is right.
I don’t know about wet mud. I’m not in the combat theater, but also not so far from it on the Russian side. It’s been a relatively dry spring and still cold. We’ve only had a couple of days of hard rain total in the past couple of months.
Who cares if you are convinced or not? Just look at the thousands and thousands of Videos on various media outlets, I alone saw a couple of hundred dead Ukrainian Soldiers, and I just looked at maybe 20 or 30 Videos. Accept the Fact that the Ukrainian Army is loosing thousands of soldiers, about 25k this far according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
So the Russian Federation is winning this war by a landslide. You can compare it to a football game, where one side scores 10 goals in the first 5 minutes of the game, and the other team scores one goal. Sure, there is a microscopic small chance that the other team wins, but now, after 10 minutes into the game, nothing will happen that will change the outcome of this war, so nobody cares what you think.
OK, don’t be convinced.
Those of us with military experience are not the least perturbed by the ebb and flow of the operational situation. A ‘glacial’ advance while preserving one’s soldiers is smart. A retreat for the same reason, or to choose better ground on which to do battle is also smart.
The Ukraine must be understood as a foreign occupied country. Ukrainians have no say in what happens. If Ukrainians had actual control of their government they would likely have sued for peace in the first 72 hours. But Ukrainians do not control their government and so they are sent to be slaughtered for their ‘Globalist’ masters.
‘The Ukraine must be understood as a foreign occupied country. ‘
About the whole e.u. is the same. We are democracies mostly in name. We are fed propaganda 24!7 and even then, forget about any semblance of will of the people.
‘We should find a military solution to ukraine problem’ said the unelected borrel , which together with the unelected van de lying form the esterile front of this supranational 4th reich they are imposing.
What planet are you on?
Mariupol is secure.
The “engage to expose positions and retreat to allow artillery bombardment” strategy seems to be working just fine.
Slowly grinding the Ukies into biblical dust.
It is not fast. And the media tries to depict each retreat as a defeat.
But who cares? It is working.
There are multiple social media posts now by the Ukies bemoaning thier situation.
I remember the old saying “walk a mile in my shoes”.
With that in mind I cannot suggest a better strategy to the Russian Federation than the one they have,
Many are saying that this “dragging out” is a detriment to Russia.
That could be true. But it is also true that this “dragging out” is killing the United States economically.
June is going to be interesting.
Please, can somebody give me accurate and true numbers of the Russian Army.
On wikipedia, it’s insane, depending language pages or times the number go from 720000 to 1,2million.
Spend the time to count up the regular ground forces combat battalions ( not support and Artie etc ) and multiply by ~ 800. That’s the real Army
Support and artillery are “the real Army”, thank you.
Collection of Media comments says 1,2 million, and internal sources says a non publiced 2,2 million trained reserve stand behind.
There are reports that the Americans have removed digital fire systems from howitzers that they gave to the Ukrainians probably because they are worried that they are going to sell them to the Russians.
Does this TV segment tell you anything about the Russian mood regarding euro-barbarians in general and scandinavians in particular? Eurocrats and NATO thugs better get their bunker ready in Berlin, Brussel and Oslo.
They will lament the good Ol’ days of genociding sand n**gers and latinos. Snow n**gers do return fire!! Can you imagine their impudent Russian behaviour?
The west is dead, don’t tell them… https://vk.com/wall-159935417_1309118
“…,The Ukrainian command is preparing an offensive by the forces of the 28th and 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade in the Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih directions….,”
The 28th is part of the Odessa Corps, Barracks is just outside of Odessa. It’s NATO style 4 (combat) battalion brigade. Can be considered one of the better Kiev Brigades.
The 60th is reserve formation. Unclear if it’s a first tier or second tier reserve formation. Likely Volksturm.
The real question is where is the 17th Tank brigade. Their barracks were in Kryvyi Rih. This formation is one of the strongest Kiev has. Kryvyi Rih was the targets of a number of probing attacks by the Allies. These feints were likely intended to pin the 17th down and prevent the 17th from reliving the Cauldron.
QUESTION – why would Kiev be using the 60th (Volkstum) in Attack when the 17th Armor (Elite, Powerful) is nearby
A tank brigade uses a lot of fuel. Ukraine might not have enough to sustain an offensive using that unit.
If a lack of fuel is stopping the 17th from operating, then it’s doomed. MBTs used as fixed Arty these days are easy targets.
Maybe Kiev has already committed the 17th to defending Dnipro or ?
According to Ukrainian sources, it was 17th Tank brigade from Krivyi Rih that decimated 74th Guards Motor Rifle brigade at the Belohorivka crossing
Thanks for the Kiev regime info. on the 17th – If all 4 of their maneuver battalions headed east to secure the river, then no wonder the 60th Volksturm is being recklessly thrown into defending Kryvih Rig (sp?) from the Allied advance coming from Kherson.
It’s also been mentioned by many observers of the river crossing battle that the videos suggest the vehicles destroyed were from the Kiev military and not from the Allies. The number of MBTs and other Amour in the videos suggest a entire battalion annihilated. Hmmm To-be-further confirmed
And, putting tanks on the road when the other side has complete and total air superiority is not good for the survival of the tanks. Also the fuel trucks that would need to follow would have the same problem, except they make better fireballs when the recon drone spots them and calls in a strike.
We see the MOD with their daily show of equipment being blown up. We don’t know if some of that was this 17th. If this was an elite unit, then if the Russians got some clear shots at it, they may well have taken them. That may be the answer to the question ‘Where is the 17th?’ And, if the unit hasn’t been hit, there’s a chance that is only because it is staying out of sight. Which of course they stop doing as soon as they join an offensive.
Given the risks of committing such a unit to an offensive, it is possible that the Kiev military command decided that the 28th plus some Volkstrum is all they wanted to risk. Whether it is enough to accomplish their goal is of course another question where the Russians get a loud vote.
And of course, all of the above is just the view from the back row of the peanut gallery which is the only seat I can afford in this capitalist theater, so take it for what’s its worth.
Why would they announce this in advance?
To mislead or just announce in advance.
For those who want to get deep into the details – Wiki has a decent run down of Kiev’s order of battle with a map of the units home base ( map recently added )
Enjoy your discussion and please be careful on the Ukie propaganda. It is everywhere.
Not hard to find!! Good summary!
[Dunno if this is novel or old, found it in Romanian, translating back]
Russian guy walks into a bar with a t-shirt saying “Ukrainians have three problems”.
A Ukrainian walks up to him and says: “Looking for trouble, pal”?
– See, that’s your 1st problem, you pick on people who didn’t wrong you.
Walks away, hours pass, bar closes, Russian leaves the bar, bunch of Ukrainians waiting outside.
– See, that’s your 2nd problem, you cant’t do stuff on your own and need to gang up with others.
Furious Ukrainians pull knives.
– See, that’s your 3rd problem, you bring knives to a gun fight.
LMAO. I’ve never heard that one. Love it.
Good one ;-D.
Be very wary of “Strelkov” (Girkin). He’s a faker, someone’s cat’s-paw, thought to be one of the 5th/6th-columnist Russian figures. His only “credentials” are showing up out of nowhere to take command of Slavyansk’s defense in 2014, claiming to be some major or colonel, only to immediately surrender it to the Ukies and basically set up the frontline that’s been there since. He was going to be tried for treason in DPR but got bailed out by unknown influences. Later he showed up in Russia trying to find some inroad into the political circuit, this time claiming he was a Donbass hero, but people were too wise to what went down with him. He also went on record publicly professing fascism, not in a metaphorical sense but the actual Mussolini “corporatist state” school of thought, while trying to at least make himself a far-right underground figure. In short, he’s basically Navalnyi mk2. Do not trust anything he promotes or what is published under his name.
Watch the ukronazi crowd start spinning any Russian troop increases as signs of failure and high casualties. But a logic a person can tell right away that this is due to having to control more captured territory.
It seems like the ukronazis are so desperate that they are labeling ukrainian defeats as Russian. That entire pontoon bridge episode seems to be a ukie loss. Because wouldn’t Russian forces send air recon of some sort over the area which is to be crossed in advance to identify and clear out any ukronazi lurkers?
One of the online analyses I’ve seen photo-identified the vast majority of dead vehicles as being BMP1’s. Apparently this vehicle type is no longer used by the Russian forces, although are used by the DLPR forces. The analyst proposed it as unlikely that DLPR forces would bring so many into the mix of the action. One of the commenters repeatedly asserted that Russian military still had 1,000 of the old version vehicles. His was a lone voice on that matter.
Dead vehicles were also missing Z or V operational markings.
This all seems to add weight to the Ukie loss theory.
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) is reporting as of 5 May that they had 1,622 soldiers killed and 6,525 wounded (4.02-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 41% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious. They have been surprisingly diligent about regularly reporting their casualty figures. One wonders if some Russian losses or contractors are being included in these figures. Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) is reported as of 5 April to have had 500-600 killed out of an estimated force of 14,000. This is 21% casualties, assuming a 4-to-1 killed ratio. Don’t know how many of DPR and LPR forces are Russians from Russia as opposed to locals.
If the DPR really has a 40% casualty rate that’s far above the rate which a military formation ceases to fight. The rule of thumb is 30% casualties produces inability to fight at all; even defensive.
Therefore something must be whacked with the maths. Perhaps DPR has more troops ?
That 20.000 number was the strength prior to the mobilization of reserves in mid February. I’ve only seen estimates of the total strength afterwards. Those range from 35.000 to 60.000. It’s probably somewhere in between.
in addition, the DPR and LPR have a number of volunteer formations as part of their armed forces. There’s a Abkhazian and an Ossetian battalion for example (I believe both of those operate under DPR command). There’s the ‘O-brigade’ (made up of Russian volunteers who have served in either Spetsnaz or recon units). That one I believe serves under LPR command. Units from Wagner have also been spotted fighting in the LPR sector.
Then there are the regular shipments of groups of volunteers from Grozny. Those are NOT all Tchetchens, in fact most are not. Grozny is merely a staging point were volunteers from all over (Russia mainly) are trained and sorted. As far as I know, all those volunteers units end up with either the DPR or LPR forces, not the main Russian army (I could be wrong though), with most going to the DPR.
Point is, do their numbers reflect the casualties of only the soldiers who are also citizens of the DPR, or do they include the casualties of all the formations fighting under their command? I strongly suggest it’s the latter.
The DNR & LPR have had a couple rounds of mobilization. There numbers are greater than 34,000. At the very start, they had 67,000. Not sure were your numbers are coming from.
A really bad day for the Ukrainian armed forces….like, really bad day.
Yep, this would constitute a bad day.
Thank you very much for the report, Saker team. It is very appreciated.
Lavrov: “As other analysts suggested we also believe it’s now time for Kremlin to deploy more troops on the rear…”
Is it a first affirmation that the Kremlin also pays attention to what outside military analysts say?
No is is not affirmation. All it means is that Russia’s decision is in sync with “outside military analysts”, but it is not because of their opinions. RF does not give a shit what outsiders say, think, or do.
You are sowing doubt once again. You do it is such a clever way that one does not notice at first, but you rinse and repeat and then your tactic becomes transparent.
Some removed. Stop the personal attacks. Mod.
“You do it is such a clever way that one does not notice at first, but you rinse and repeat and then your tactic becomes transparent.”
Look how far you went based on the simple words “pay attention”; they do not mean that Russia did something “because of their opinions.”
“All it means is that Russia’s decision is in sync with ‘outside military analysts.'”
It means they (he or the Kremlin) pay attention, first of all. Maybe this fact is something already communicated explicitly like that (I don’t think so, but asked because I don’t know). “In sync” now, however. There is actually a tacit admission that it was not quite so before.
Grr is a good nick for that. No matter the “grr”, don’t do that to the words.
Moderator, why are you preventing this commenter from making a case against a suspected outreach operative? Is it because “tranquilocomp” has leave to sow doubt at this site?
Mod: Personal attacks are not the best way to make a case against others’ ideas, and the moderation rules acknowledge that. It is best to counter someone’s opinion with ideas.
I can see the two of you at the Cafe. Set the time for later today. You can ventilate all your differences there. (I’m straightforward.)
Can we have the source to this Lavrov quote ? if i google it, it shows only this blog. And it sounds a bit wired that he mentions social-media analysts, and that he calls the russian actions immoral. I have the feeling this quote is nit from him.
When it is available. The Russian MFA is notoriously slow with posting up speeches and English transcripts.
The only video available now, does not play for most of the world – as a result of a total Russia cancellation on internet resources.
If you are fluent in Russian, you can listen here: https://t.me/EurasianChoice/13592
You can try the videos here, but for me they don’t play. https://t.me/MFARussia/12550
For Lavrov, always go to the Russian MFA. Google does not feature Lavrov lol. https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1813294/
His presser after the meeting is up, but I cannot find the complete English translated speech and transcript yet.
That sentence that has everyone in a tizzy .. he is only talking about the Russian MFA and other analysts in his meeting … not about social media. Russian analysts. And he does not call the Russian actions immoral. Please read again carefully.
What’s MFA? Only he knows what he meant to say, ultimately.
“As other analysts suggested we also believe it’s now time for Kremlin to deploy more troops on the rear…”
In English, this indicates that it’s about 1) non-Kremlin analysts because “other” analysts is not “Kremlin” analysts, 2) it would be more incongruous to be talking about purely internal details, 3) It is of course in reference to Russian-speaking analysts.
It’s candid – he is straightforward. Someone in his position does not say that about other “analysts” – normally. It may be indiscrete of him not because of the “analysts” part but because he at least implies that they are finally going to do something which they should have done before. Needless to say, they do pay attention to other analysts both Russian and Western. They pay attention to anything important that influences their society, besides what influences their “enemies.”
Life and Internet as they are, if the Russian speaking analyst is ‘too good,’ they’ll hire him, no? Or would and should be ready to follow him. Internet influence is hard to measure but it’s something else. Seriously, one of the commenters one day said to another one here (not me) that when Putin reads your comment …I don’t think so, but that’s only a couple of clicks away.
MFA? Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
OK, who was Lavrov speaking to? His counterparts and analysts of the CIS. The CIS is the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Commonwealth of Independent States. There are nine countries with a security treaty and a free trade zone in Asia and eastern Europe.
The MFA is the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
You did not hear this speech, you did not read the transcript. I listened to it live – not the whole thing but I caught enough. Others did too. We discussed it. We don’t post things at this blog that we have not heard, seen and assessed. You’ve done none of that.
> You did not hear this speech, you did not read the transcript.
Correct. I assumed that this speech never took place, as Lavrov would never accuse the Russian army of doing immoral things.
So I asked for the URL, which no one could give me, so now I am very sure that this quote is pure fiction.
> And he does not call the Russian actions immoral.
He said “it’s simply immoral to withdraw from areas that have been under Russian control already for 2 months”.
On liveuamap you can see that the land around Kharkiv was occupied by Russia for at least 2 months, they have a history feature:
So the recent withdrawal meets the criteria that Lavrov says is immoral.
Hans, what is the history here? Do you know. Do you understand that Andrei (The Saker) already wrote weeks ago that Russia encountered a problem with people that are completely brainwashed and that Russia has to put in management resources to get the towns, cities and villages to a working state again.
We’ve been discussing this for a time, it is only you that uses liveumap (Ukrainian influence), and do not know the history of Lavrov’s comment.
I gave you the Russian of Lavrov’s speech. That should be sufficient and we will wait for formal translations. We are accustomed to this.
If this is not good enough for you, just hold your peace because you are off the mark here. You don’t understand the context of Lavrov’s statement, and perhaps you have a reading comṕrehension problem. I don’t know.
The United States (and small collective west) …
The concept of West v. East must become passé. Was it ever really more than grist for a power whore’s mill?
They psychologically conflate the ‘West’ into a ‘Western Civilization’ dichotomy which demands an ‘other’ – an Eastern … Barbarian! Word-smithing manipulators work that way.
Civilization is a real ‘singularity’.
The truth is not geographic, it is a question of good against evil. This chasm is not physical. The impenetrable is not iron, it is moral.
A Moral Curtain divides us!
Here we are … What did we tell you … the next Ukie storie.
“Ukraine thus appears to have won the Battle of Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces prevented Russian troops from encircling, let alone seizing Kharkiv, and then expelled them from around the city, as they did to Russian forces attempting to seize Kyiv.”
So, let me remind all .. there has been no Battle of Kharkiv and Russia never attempted to seize *Kyiv*.
And now I don’t want to give them even a link … OK ..turcopolier.com – isw-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-13-may-ttg/
What I grasped from Andrei Martyanov’s analyses was that the Russian forces are shaping the battlespace for a showdown at Kharkov. They’re encircling the Ukrainian battalions and methodically destroying them with artillery.
Right now, the Russians are surrounding Severodonetsk from three sides, and the battle for that city has already begun. With battles going on around Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Severodonetsk, they’re effectively destroying the Ukrainian military groupings in these areas that can reinforce the Ukie forces in Kharkov.
Read this piece. It explains how Russia is preparing the ground for the big offensive.
““attempted five times in a row”. That doesn’t sound like Russian Armed Forces”
It does however sound a lot like the British. The Somme comes to mind. IIRC, Bunker Hill had a bit of that. I’d say the Charge of the Lt Brigade, but one and only one charge was more than enough to do them in. But yeah, yelling ‘Charge’ over and over and over again until your troops are either dead or exhausted definitely sounds like the British.
And as such, to BoJoke’s crack English elite psy-ops teams, when they aren’t at the Downing Street cocktail parties, would think it personally plausible that some fool would attack five times in a row. Back in those elite school history classes that they did not pay attention to, I’m sure the lecturer droned that phrase at them from multiple moments of British military history .. “attacked five times in a row”, “attacked seven times in a row”, attacked 10 times in a row”, etc, etc, etc
When it comes down to it, the British are only good at one thing …. the ultimate Empire of Lies. Thomas Jefferson said this in a letter to a member of the Adams family.
“Wonderful is the effect of impudent and persevering lying. The British ministry have so long hired their gazetteers to repeat and model into every form lies about our being in anarchy, that the world has at length believed them, the English nation has believed them, the ministers themselves have come to believe them, and what is more wonderful, we have believed them ourselves. Yet where does this anarchy exist? Where did it ever exist, except in the single instance of Massachusets?”
Interestingly, its the same letter in which he says more famously:
“God forbid we should ever be 20. years without such a rebellion. The people can not be all, and always, well informed. The part which is wrong will be discontented in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive. If they remain quiet under such misconceptions it is a lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty.”
‘a 1787 letter to William Stephens Smith, the son-in-law of John Adams’
“Wonderful is the effect of impudent and persevering lying. The British ministry have so long hired their gazetteers to repeat and model into every form lies about our being in anarchy, that the world has at length believed them, the English nation has believed them, the ministers themselves have come to believe them, and what is more wonderful, we have believed them ourselves. Yet where does this anarchy exist?”
There are some who think Integrity Initiative and Brigade 77, Zinc are new. Not to mention TikTok, Meta, Google, Ofcom and the DHS Disinformation Unit.
Impudent and persevering lying is a British trademark – look where EU dignitaries got their training – The London School of Economics.
Ursula von der Leyen , EU Commission President, studied there under a false name Rose Ladson.
And German Foreign Minister Baerbock, Green and warhawk :
Master’s degree without a Bachelor’s degree
It sure looks like LSE dishes out Masters without Bachelors, in Impudent and persevering lying.
So to beat the low earth orbit satellites that the western stratagists are using, Russia has to know the window they operate in over the battlefield, their footprint and how many.
Russia can then know when their base station “hand off” is and try and disrupt the hand shake window.
There will be blind spots in the coverage and knowing this will work to Russian strategy and give Russia knowledge when Ukrainians will most likely be using their unmanned arial assets to cover this blindness.
This is a game of chess and the more window of blindness Russia can inflict on Ukraine the better the outcome for Russia.
War is not a video game. This is what an aspiring Brazilian mercenary learned after his base in western Ukraine was destroyed by Russian missiles.
It is possible to win countless times in fake-news, but still be soundly defeated in the battlefield of the objectivity of hard facts.
However, Imperium has come to believe its own propaganda, such is its advanced stage of senility and dementia.
Weapons will continue to be sent to Ukraine. As if the guns will continue to fire on their own, even after the last Ukrainian soldier has surrendered, deserted, been wounded, or even killed.
On the other hand, this war is the unavoidable return of serious questions left open with the end of World War II.
The Berlin Wall fell, yet these questions remained.
The conflict between the U.S. and Russia remained latent. It even seemed to be over after the collapse of the USSR.
However, for Imperium the colonization of the world must be complete. And Russia is one of the few countries that resists being subjugated.
In turn, even militarily defeated Nazism remained latent. And it metamorphosed. Now it seeks its long-delayed revenge.
For the Donbas People’s Republics the time has come for a final offensive to liberate their territories and put an end to the eight years of ethnic cleansing suffered by their population.
There are many wars within this same war.
Destroying a pontoon bridge was a big deal during the times of the Wars of Napoleon and the American Civil War. If you destroyed one, it could discombobulate the enemy and take some work to replace. At times, losing a pontoon bridge, often to just high river water, could be a major event in a campaign. But that was then.
By WW2, there were usually bridging units at the Army (west) or Front (soviet) level. It was mainly a matter of getting the bridging unit out of the traffic jam that is the supply route and tail of the formation and up to where the pontoon bridge was needed. Lightweight pontoons and the sheets to lay across to form a surface and some bolts to hold it together are not terribly rare nor hard to obtain, and a bridging unit is mainly loading the above onto some trucks with some engineers who know how to put it together. If there was an air campaign going on, this could be in the ‘we bomb it every day, they repair it every night’ category.
On a different topic, I am listening to music from a past May 19th, and the musician just informed the crowd that this was the anniversary of Ho Chi Minh’s birthday. I’ll have to remember to remember an earlier campaigner against the Empire of Lies in a few days. Put that on my calendar. :) Hmmm, I think he’d have liked the phrase “Empire of Lies”. Don’t really know of course, but it seems like he might have smiled at that one.
Thank you for answering my questions that I didn’t ask but others ask. I can see more clearly now through the fog of propaganda in this conflict. I’m not sure when my nation lost it’s moral compass but I can assure you it was within my 79 year lifetime. A war of liberation can’t be won without winning the hearts and minds of those liberated. Russia is doing it the right way, I’m sorry to say the USA and NATO are on the wrong side of history again.
Tanks can use snorkels to cross a river. Looks like it was never a bridge but a ramp to allow them to drive out of the river?
The Russians, once they decided to take the step into Ukraine had to understand that their only option is victory at any cost, because American victory will be more costly than anything.
The Russians should of gone in 2014 when the coup happened, its to late now.
They are learning quick that the Ukrainian are now fighting a guerilla war, trying to weaken Russia enough to come out of the cities for a big manoeuvre war.
To disrupt the guerilla war is to deal with the satellite warriors in NATO who are conducting this war, to make traps and ambushes out of perceived weaknesses, Russia has to deceive more.
So the tactics should change to meet the tactics of the opposition but with the goal always in mind, to destroy the Ukrainian military.
>>…” The Russians should of gone in 2014”.
If you read the archives of this very blog, since 2014 and on high rotation Saker explains again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again……x8 years.
Why Russia “didn’t go in 2014”.
In a simple sentence, they simply didn’t have the capacity.
And. They hadn’t exhausted every single diplomatic option.
>There was no further possibility that Minsk would be implemented.
>NATO and EU had rejected out of hand Russia’s claim to security guarantees
>NATO was prepping to take Donbas by force
>Zelensky had approval to announce at the Munich Security Conference that Ukraine would be reactivating it’s nuclear capability.
I noted yesterday that Wikipedia is not permitting edits to their article on pontoon bridges where they claim the destruction of a full Russian battalion.
New York fell to allied forces today, claiming the high ground. Berlin? Paris? Manhattan?
The NATOization of Ukraine was/is a total fail.
Somehow they assumed the whole war would occur in their outlying regions and their interior would stay intact.
8 years of training an army on equipment which is mostly destroyed and cannot be replaced in any reliable manner.
8 years spent training troops how to fight on the frontlines and apparently no planning on overall logistics of it. Bandaid approach of just stockpiling in forward areas.
It’s not Syria. US/NATO troops stepping foot within Ukraine are legit targets of war. Russia has already stated this war is all about pushing NATO back. Wrapping an American flag around troops will do nothing to stop an incoming cruise missile.
Great update btw.
Hi guys, thank you for all the work you have been putting in unmasking the Western initiated fog of war.
I used to follow the Strategic Culture Foundation, but this has since been 403 in New Zealand. Obviously 5 Eyes doing it part in perpetuating this fog.
Like most who follow the Saker, I sincerely pray the Russian Federation successfully concludes the SMO for all our sake.
One thing I have learned is not to let my own hopes turn into wishful thinking and colour my interpretation of reality.
Lavrov’s own words tell the story: “…it will take more time than expected…”
I think things are going overall well for Russia, but it is a tough fight considering this was a bear-trap 8-years in the making laid out for them by the US. But it does not pay to underestimate the wickedness and determination of Empire.
As many have noted, this is an existential struggle and it is quite clear who “the baddies” are. One must have faith in the outcome, just as one must have faith that in life Good overcomes Evil. By this faith, one holds the line against Evil. The alternate is sinking into despair and acquiescing to Darkness.
Some videos for today.
Restoration work is now underway in Mariupol:
RT follows sappers’ brigade in Mariupol:
Russia’s Airborne Forces in action:
Russia’s Ka-52 helicopter crews in combat:
Yuri Podolyaka had a commentary yesterday and he seems to confirm the multiple failed attempts by the Russian command (not soldiers) to cross at the same location with disastrous results. He called this repeated error as incompetence, stupidity, and almost criminal. I tend to agree with him.
He said recently that NATO is bound to occupy parts of Ukraine anyway in the future. That Russia will only take some regions, Poland will take others and perhaps that Hungary, Slovakia and some other country will take other parts of Ukraine (so NATO would actually gain a lot). If you are correct, in his own way he criticizes the Russian performance no less than the Ukrainian government does. He is anti-Russia, really. “Why”, I don’t know. He is pro-NATO; there is no sounder interpretation than that for his pointing out – in other words – that Russia will have to learn to live with NATO in parts of what now are Ukraine. He hardly dissimulates (what dissimulation would that be!). Here:
Kremlin has said several times that the operation “demilitarization and denazification” is for ALL of Ukraine.
Only a Western fool start to make scientific research about what this statement really really could mean instead of what it says.
Yuri Podolyaka is quoted by The New York Times today:
<> -NYT (5/15/22)
Since he predicted that NATO will extend itself into parts of Ukraine in the future (through Poland and possibly others too), Russia would have to experience what he describes above (failures). He does not criticize the Ukrainian military here. He says, “I personally and in fact millions of citizens of the Russian Federation start to have questions for these leaders of the military operation.”
Great video, thank you! One of the observations he made was that the US seemed hell bent on maintaining a unipolar world and he wasn’t sure why. I think the reason may be that the US has fallen to WEF control; its capture completed via the Biden coup. I believe the WEF plan is to rule the world via the UN which the WEF is working day and night to refashion into its image.
Losing much of the world to nationalism as it now has must have them frothing at the mouth, which goes a long way to explain the continued insanity in Ukraine, the new actions in Syria, the ally shopping going on in the Pacific as well as the about to be launched US war against its own conservative white people. For those white people are nationalists.
Thanks to Team Saker for yet another outstanding sitrep. You folks are a treasure!
avia.pro. shows polish helo . appafently un ukraine but not confirmed. if true this is definatly a big step to national suicide
If it is not confirmed it is in 98% of the cases fake news.
Anything from avia.pro is highly questionable information.
A very good site for updates on the SMO:
Anyone know what’s this about ?
May 15, 2022 2:15 AM
Ein großer Konvoi aus Autos und Lieferwagen ist sicher mit Flüchtlingen aus Mariupol in der ukrainisch kontrollierten Stadt Saporischschja angekommen. Die Flüchtlinge mussten Mariupol zuvor auf eigene Faust verlassen und sich allein bis nach Berdjansk, etwa 80 Kilometer weiter westlich, durchschlagen. Von dort aus konnten sie mit den Rettungsfahrzeugen ins 200 Kilometer entfernte Saporischschja in Sicherheit gebracht werden.
Ein Berater des Bürgermeisters von Mariupol hatte zuvor gesagt, dass der Konvoi zwischen 500 und 1000 Autos umfasste und damit die größte Evakuierungsmaßnahme in der Stadt seit dem Einmarsch der Russen am 24. Februar war.
May 15, 2022 2:15 AM
A large convoy of cars and vans has safely arrived in the Ukrainian-controlled city of Zaporizhia with refugees from Mariupol. The refugees had to leave Mariupol on their own beforehand and make their own way to Berdyansk, about 80 kilometers further west. From there they were taken to safety in the rescue vehicles 200 kilometers away in Zaporizhia.
An aide to the Mariupol mayor had previously said the convoy included between 500 and 1,000 cars, making it the largest evacuation operation in the city since the Russians invaded on February 24
Some simple questions
Why is Russia not commiting more triops to relieve the pressure on its fighting forces and exploit breaches in UK défenses ?
Why is Russia attacking the entranched Donbass Line by the front rather than flanking it
Abeille, such questions can only be answered by the REAL data which is known only to Russia’s General Staff and nobody else.
I also find your questions of the kind that cannot be answered, because you assume that what you say is true. I am not so sure of that. Are they not flanking? Of course they are where it is appropriate. There is a very large area under Russian fire control.
Russia uses artillery, armed drones and Aerospace to ‘relieve pressure”.
If you use troops, you loose troops.
The attack on the triple echelon fortified positions is not a normal frontal assault.
They use artillery to break the line, then send some probing assault troops. If there is still resistance, they use more artillery and tank fire. Only then, they exploit the openings. Artillery wipes out the Ukies and the assault specialists secure the civilians, help the wounded, take prisoners and kill off the deadenders. Sappers clear the tripwire bombs and mines and IEDs.
The flanks are closed off by artillery and armor. Don’t worry about what or how the Russians are doing.
They are inflicting massive casualties and losses on the Ukies who cannot maneuver, cannot refuel, cannot rearm, cannot replace. They are running out of everything they need to stay alive much less to fight.
I am still not clear just why the Ukrainians are fighting and to what end. It is clear Azov and Aidar and assorted ideological forces have nothing else ahead of them, but Ukrainians themselves have a Kleptocracy running the place and are being fed into the meat-grinder by US and UK puppet-masters. Capitulation at the first opportunity seems sensible.
People in Donbass will live much better lives under Russia and people in Rump-Ukraine will lead terrible lives under whatever regime EU/US/NATO installs to service the debt burden. The Ukrainian widows and orphans being exploited in Poland or Germany or UK will have years to wait to declare missing spouses/fathers dead in some foreign court.
The whole thing is madness. Of necessity Russia is going to have to implement total destruction on opposing forces. There is no NATO army in Europe as well-equipped and large as Ukraine started out – there is no NATO army that could sustain such losses given supply chains and convoluted logistics of US supply.
If nothing else Russia will have a very combat-proven army in a conflict intensity not seen since 1945
“The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) is reporting as of 5 May that they had 1,622 soldiers killed and 6,525 wounded (4.02-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 41% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious. ”
These numbers are including almost 100% possiibility all Russian forces under organization of DPR military and paramilitaries. And when they are still though very slowly advancing this DPR whole organization has had on average likely more than 35,000 troops during March- May.
Dupuy Institution has studied these numbers. LPD deaths are likely now around 800 deaths and 4,
3,200 WIA. So these eastern organizations have already lost more than 14,000 if losses have been same per day during 6 May to 14 May.
Chris Lawrence from Dupuy Institution quote:
“Ukraine is claiming as of 19 April that 20,800 Russian and DPR soldiers have been killed, Russians are claiming as of 16 April that 23,367 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Are both sets of figures similarly inflated?”
My opinion: yes they both overestimate heavily enemy losses. Lawrence suggested Russian losses been higher than official 1,351 (mid April). It’s hard to believe that RF forces have lost less than DPR (now) . Zelensky admitted up to 3,000 Ukrainian deaths (early April). It’s likely their losses (killed) now are more than 6,000 but not even near claims of RF (23,367 16 April).
So DPR has admitted very heavy losses of 1,622 killed and 6,525 wounded until 5 May. If they have 50,000 troops the loss ratio is 18,5%.
To be fair, a review of the source political bias should be posted: “The Dupuy Institute conducts its military history research, analysis and reporting under contract with government and private agencies, through book contracts with publishers, under the terms of grants from foundations and corporations, and through projects developed under its own initiative.”
I would not trust their analysis.
Given it is unacceptable for NATO missiles to be placed on Russia’s borders, what will realistically happen to Finland given NATO’s desire to keep poking the bear?
Did Estonia have NATO missiles targeting Russia?
Just something I noticed on bitChute. I am curious if anyone has any opinion or information on the accuracy of this. With so many fakes, it is hard to know what to believe. Obviously a bunch of armoured vehicles at some point, somewhere, failed to cross a river safely, but the numbers at the very least, seem suspicious to me. The numbers of deaths, etc. as well as the events themselves, seem very far fetched too, almost impossible, but I am no expert.
Just another battle, lost in the fog of an SMO. Lots of info go through the site reps, here and at MOA, every dog in the house has an opinion.
Only the RF MOD (public info) know what happened, and the Ukrainian forces, but they’re kinda busy making war movies and playing Duck and Cover.
I am unsure of the actual casualties on both sides other than to say I have a hard time believing that the figures of the Ukrainian casualties are somewhat similar to LDPR casualties either in number or percentages.
When the Ukrainian military has been wrapped into a cauldron since the start of the SMO, its air defense systems have been destroyed, that much of its oil depots and supply lines have been wiped out and at least 15,000 Nazis have been destroyed in Mariupol alone, you can continue to throw unrealistic figures any way you want but it defies commonsense.
HELL IS GOING ON AT THE FRONT: Kamaz trucks are chock-full of APU prisoners. Latest news from Ukraine – reports on May 15 (20 videos)
On the outskirts of Severodonetsk there are heavy battles. Ukrainian sources report fighting in the area of the settlement. Shchedrishchevo and Voronovo in the middle of the city. Some Russian channels are dispersing reports that the fighting is already taking place directly in the city.
Tonight, the American MLRS MLRS M142 HIMARS began to work near Slavyansk.
After the loss of Mariupol, the Ukrainian industry lost up to 50% of steel and iron production, which there is nothing to compensate for. Also, after the loss of Donbass, Ukraine will have to import ore from abroad, which raises the question of the liquidity of such production in principle. Up to 40% of steel production was tied to Mariupol for the manufacture of armor for tanks and AFVs.
By Azovstal. The Kyiv regime is shifting the focus from the Azov militants to the NSU and the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who have settled there – they are trying to pull them out at least. They say they are not Nazis – release?
Rumors from the other side. Russia deployed 3,000 troops to Transnistria via Moldova in a month. The transfer went through civil flights, in small groups of 5-7 people. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also received information that the Kremlin decided to increase the grouping of Russian troops in Ukraine by 50,000. Continued in the material.
Yes, there is hell .. hot steel rain.
Take a look at Martyanov today.
More from: https://voenhronika.ru/
The Russian army is fighting a FURIOUS RAGE. The enemy will be surrounded and DESTROYED! Reports from Ukraine on the morning of May 15 (15 videos)
In the Izyum direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to force the Seversky Donets River and strike at the flank of the group advancing on Slavyansk. Ukrainian units were covered during the crossing and cleaned up on the ground.
Fierce battles continue for the bridgehead on the western bank of the Seversky Donets in the area of Belogorovka and Privolye. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, after a debriefing (the debriefing was initiated from the very top), changed tactics and are fighting for control over the ill-fated area with violent rabies. What was there with details read in the previous article . In Severodonetsk, several blocks were occupied by allied forces.
North of Popasna, Alexandropol was taken, battles began for Kamyshevakha, and after its capture, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be surrounded in Gorsky, which will automatically create a threat of a complete encirclement of the group in the Severodonetsk-Lysichansk-Rubezhnoye agglomeration. Continued in the material.
Surrendered in Azovstal
US General Eric Olson,
British Lieutenant Colonel John Bailey
4 NATO military instructors.
There is news of Canadian French Turkish officers still hiding inside tunnels
UNCONFIRMED and I post it only to add the names to the ‘unconfirmed’ list.
Voenkor Kitten Z
Daily Express: “There are at least three ex-British military personnel on Azovstal’s premises. Two served in Afghanistan and were surprised by the intensity of the conflict.”
I translate into Russian. A former British military man who finds himself in a special operation zone is most likely not a former, but a very active member of the British special services. And “surprise at the intensity of the conflict” means a strong misunderstanding of how it happened that instead of the “Russian safari” that the leadership promised them, all three ended up in factory basements destroyed by artillery and bombs, in the company of half-dead Nazis and their completely frostbitten leaders who also perceive you as a human shield.
(Video and Photo ID)
In Rubizhnoye, 7 Americans who participated in the battles on the side of Kiev were killed, RIA Novosti was told by the assistant to the head of Chechnya Alaudinov, showing the document of one of them in the name of Joseph Ward Clark from Washington:
“This was probably considered a special forces unit, there are seven of them, as I understand it , there were Americans. They were fixed by us and all disappeared into another world.
I think I remember the name Ward Clark from several weeks ago. I don’t remember where he had been found.
It will be interesting to see the testimony of the ones captured alive …
Vids up of Avozstal on warnews, fire pouring from the sky, holy crap…..surrender for heaven’s sake.
Good if some come out. They will have been ordered out by their home side. Ashton’s phone call? Who else is calling?
Eric Olson height, see photo:
German Radio announced this evening in short news item – Kiev military advancing in many places, notably around Kharkov and Donbass
Comment – I’m struggling to figure out how the war party will spin the forthcoming defeat of the NATO led forces in Donbass
Interesting development here:
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed Major General Ihor Tantsiura as Commander of the Territorial Defense Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, dismissing Yurii Halushkin from the post.”
Just looked at some ‘pics’ of the Brit and Yank officers that surrendered at Avozstal…..you can lay odds that’s what yesterday’s phone call between the MoDs was about.
Where are the pics?
May 16th News Already:
BATTLE FOR SEVERODONETSK – May 16! Fights are going on for 5 more cities: Barvenkovo, Svyatogorsk, Bogorodichnoye, Yarovaya and Drobyshevo. Yuriy Podolyaka (20 videos)
They report the beginning of the assault on Barvenkovo by the forces of the RF Armed Forces – the direction to Gusarovka in order to restart the railway line. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the Russian army is advancing in the direction of the settlement. Bogorodichnoye and Krasnopolye to the west of the city of Svyatogorsk – Bogorodichnoye is located on a hill and occupying it can force the APU to retreat from Svyatogorsk.
Estuary. In the evening there were reports that the enemy was withdrawing from the villages of Yarovaya and Drobyshevo. Previously, he had already been knocked out of Novoselovka. The main nodes of resistance in this direction are Svyatogorsk and Krasny Liman, which, after the loss of Yampol and Drobyshevo, will be covered from two sides. Previously, the bridge between Slavyansk and Krasny Liman, as well as bridges in the Svyatogorsk region, had already been blown up.
From Popasnaya, allied forces are fighting for the western part of Kamyshevakhi in order to create an operational encirclement for this road junction. A very important direction, which may soon give great success. Continued in the material.
Long ago the Saker made a wise decision: not to fight PSYOPS.
He quickly realized the more Ukraine lost the war, the more intense PSYOPS would become, and it was a waste of time and energy to engage them, or even worse, try to debunk them all.
The Bridge episode is another Bucha, same shit, different location and narrative. There are going to be thousands of them in multiple variations, CIA/MI6/Mossad are very creative.
It is an absolute waste of time to try counteracting Ukraine’s “victories” or “massacres,” and by engaging them we only legitimize them. How important, in the great scheme of things, is a bloody bridge? Or a few APCs/tanks? Do you have any idea how many people the good old Soviet Union lost defending a bridge from the Nazis, not once but many a times during the war? Having a historical perspective helps not to fall into the PSYOPS trap.
Invaluable A. Martyanov has underlined that tactics are not as essential to the Russian army as strategy and logistics, a different way of looking at war. Why then engage on an insignificant tactical event, even more, a fake and phony one? There is a desperation to share “news” regardless of their source, and given the Russian MoD parse their information according to the unfolding battlefield reality, contrary to the 24/7 PSYOPS trash, the logic (or lack thereof) seem to go, “while we get some real info, let’s talk trash.”
If the Saker realized long ago to try countering PSYOPS is a waste of time, let’s not pollute this venue with “information” produced by the PSYOPS machine. We need to focus on the real developments on the battlefield, which come in a trickle, given the nature of the info and language barriers. There are very good sources on war reports in Russian, an Yandex translator facilitates the task. Maps analysis, reports from Konashenkov, articles from military publications (Russian) are of easy access, all it needs is some work.
On another note, triumphalism on the side of Russia is a severe mistake we should avoid. Russia is fighting a war against the collective West, and they have been trained to kill Russians, Russian soldiers are going to die, equipment is going to get lost, advance and retreats will take place all over the battlefield, that’s war. We are here to support Russia, not to blindly believe Russia has an invincible army of unconquerable warriors.
Objectivity is the best weapon in any war.
BTW, I am selling a bridge to Alaska, anyone interested?
Please let me know.
Yeah, but the war is not here. You provide good information, but I think you basically are proposing that people publish sources you prefer, trust, and that don’t bother you. And what is supposed to be “trash”? The New York Times, The Washington Post, the top newspapers from different countries! We should screen them and double check them before posting them, which in practice would be to ban them. Why not assume readers discriminate? Why worry about such things? Some may wish there were even more diversity of sources, to know what is being reported in more countries. To me, trying to control political internet flow is like trying to control the “world”, not worth it. Better to present one’s input, counter what one disagrees with, and leave it at that without imagining that had there been more control ‘outcomes’ would have changed. Also, doesn’t the richness of this medium consist of the to and fro between contrasting positions? Don’t wish for your “enemy” not to come here. Wish for him to come so you can ‘vanquish’ him.
“There is a desperation to share “news” regardless of their source, and given the Russian MoD parse their information according to the unfolding battlefield reality, contrary to the 24/7 PSYOPS trash, the logic (or lack thereof) seem to go, “while we get some real info, let’s talk trash.”
(I thought this was a very good video. Russia’s control of the grain market):
Moscow is making South & East of Ukraine part of Russia / What Benefits will Kremlin get from this?
Some more videos for today.
‘Pointless losses’: attempt by Kiev regime forces to recapture Zmeiny Island fails:
LPR forces take control of Zarya chemical facility:
DPR’s Somalia Battalion tanks strike Kiev regime dugouts:
Could be him, Major General Eric T. Olson, see photo.
US general surrendered at Azovstal, Mariupol.
> We have to explain again:
>Russia is fighting a limited action.
>The Ukraine is trying to fight a full scale war.
Yes, and that’s why Russia is losing. As they say, “the enemy gets a vote, too”, and if they say it’s a war, then it’s a war. When one side is fighting a war and the other isn’t, the one that is fighting a war will win. Russia won’t start winning until they start taking this seriously – until they realize that they’re in a war and that “fighting a limited action” isn’t going to get the job done.
As Mike Ehrmantraut once said: “No more half-measures, Walter”. Win the war or go home.
Winners don’t blow their own bridges
Winners don’t send Volksturm over open ground to attack Regular Army units
Just the facts
It’s a large crowd that will be wrong. NATO said yesterday that Ukraine can win the war against Russia (Stoltenberg). He should not encourage Russia to go beyond Ukraine as this clueless statement could even do. Isn’t it a saying? “How could one lose against those people (close enough)!” If you are a General in charge of protecting a country, the last thing you want to do is to show yourself clueless on military matters that the average Joe or Juan can get right. This here is like beating Argentina. It’s like beating Peru. Or like Brazil beating Bolivia, beating Paraguay. It is not without a cost, but it is easy, very easy – it’s guaranteed!
“It’s just the way it is.” The San Francisco Soccer Club cannot go to Italy and beat the Juventus Football Club! Doesn’t matter if everyone in San Francisco says it will happen and one of them tells you he has 40 years of experience in soccer. Doesn’t happen but Haiti faces Brazil in a qualifying match for the World Cup. Who says it can win? Could this shocking disorientation about Ukraine mean that NATO is leaderless and worthless, and on its way out? You tell me. I can suspect that this San Francisco Soccer Club never even existed.
It’s about words in here! Over there it’s a war where one of the commanders in chief is Putin and the other one is this fellow here:
I re-read an old book recently with title “burry my heart at wounded knee”.
Did anything change at all since those wars then?