By Nightvision for the Saker Blog
Several big developments are giving us an idea of a shifting picture on the ground today. First let’s start with the fronts where the largest changes took place, and then give a broader strategic analysis.
-Many reports today confirm our previous determination that Russia is in fact conducting a major regrouping of its forces following what Shoigu today has called the successful conclusion of the main objectives of the first phase of operations:
“Shoigu: In general, the main objectives of the first phase of the operation have been achieved. The combat capabilities of the VSU have been significantly reduced, which allows us to focus our main attention and main efforts on achieving the main goal – the liberation of Donbass.”
This is in conjunction with the announcement from RF that some VDV units will be withdrawn from the Kiev region as a sign of good faith for the negotiations.
Of course the Western press/analysts have predictably spun this news as, ‘Attritioned Russian forces are pulling out and downscaling their operation in order to concentrate on more realistic objectives in the east’.
There is a very informative thread by Scott Ritter today who explains the simple concept of a military ‘feint’ (misdirection, deception, diversionary tactics etc) we’ve often mentioned before in the discussion of Russia’s opening maneuvers which seemed to many of us who actually follow military matters, to be a ‘pinning strategy’ that keeps Ukrainian forces from redistributing and relieving their primary forces in Donbass and elsewhere.
“1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.
2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.
3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.
4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it’s numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.
5/ Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.
6/ While this complex operation unfolded, Russia needed to keep Ukraine from maneuvering its numerically superior forces in a manner that disrupted the Mariupol operation. This entailed the use of several strategic supporting operations—feints, fixing operations, and deep attack.
7/ The concept of a feint is simple—a military force either is seen as preparing to attack a given location, or actually conducts an attack, for the purpose of deceiving an opponent into committing resources in response to the perceived or actual actions.
8/ The use of the feint played a major role in Desert Storm, where Marine Amphibious forces threatened the Kuwaiti coast, forcing Iraq to defend against an attack that never came, and where the 1st Cavalry Division actually attacked Wadi Al Batin to pin down the Republican Guard.
9/ The Russians made extensive use of the feint in Ukraine, with Amphibious forces off Odessa freezing Ukrainian forces there, and a major feint attack toward Kiev compelling Ukraine to reinforce their forces there. Ukraine was never able to reinforce their forces in the east.
10/ Fixing operations were also critical. Ukraine had assembled some 60,000-100,000 troops in the east, opposite Donbas. Russia carried out a broad fixing attack designed to keep these forces fully engaged and unable to maneuver in respect to other Russian operations.
11/ During Desert Storm, two Marine Divisions were ordered to carry out similar fixing attacks against Iraqi forces deployed along the Kuwaiti-Saudi border, tying down significant numbers of men and material that could not be used to counter the main US attack out west.”
By the way, von Manstein, considered one of the greatest German WW2 generals famously employed such tactics, particularly in the same Donbass region against the Soviet forces, where he utilized feints and strategic retreats in order to capture a much larger encroaching force by way of misdirection and diversions). You can watch videos such as this one to see how an extremely agile mechanized force can employ diversionary tactics and misdirection to bait a much larger force https://youtu.be/vL1BiYvG-38
A source from Kiev further has reported that “Russia now has MORE armor units accumulated on the border than it did prior to the war…” This is extremely telling, and if true, a clear sign that a major phase 2 operation is in the preparatory stages. And there’s many sightings/videos of new forces coming in such as this one: https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1508794997184897024
The full statement: “Russia has pulled more equipment to the border than it was before the invasion – according to Ukrainian resources affiliated with the intelligence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The intelligence community “Informnapalm” specifies that specifically in the Kursk region a huge amount of military equipment is recorded – more than it was on February 24th.”
(photo of earlier build up for reference)
-Now onto a few actual tactical updates:
By far the most actively successful theatre for RF forces has been Izyum. Kamyanka was mostly captured and there are now reports that fighting has been recorded as far south / down the road as Krestyshche (likely just advance/scout forces), which is right on the outskirts of Slovyansk. Similarly in the SW direction from Izyum, fighting continues around Barinkove and more and more forces continue to pour into this area via pontoon bridge crossings on the Donets river. This will become a bigger and bigger focus in the coming days as the “regrouping” pivots towards full Phase 2, as this area will become the main pincer of the north to enclose the ‘Great Cauldron’.
-In Mariupol, cleansing continues and Ramzan Kadyrov has flown in to help oversee the final stages of the Mariupol liberation and continue giving his troops morale on the frontlines. The city is divided into small pockets which are strategically being pushed by RF aligned forces towards the Azovstal factory so that they can concentrate and bottleneck all the remaining Azov forces there. The verdict is still out whether, as some have expressed, Russia will choose to “sacrifice the factory” once all of Azov is in there (via massive bombing), to get rid of them all in one shot, or instead cleanse it piece by piece so as to salvage it intact. The factory is an important industrial center that was once amongst the largest in the world for steel, so likely Russia is hesitant to completely destroy this heritage to Soviet industry.
And by the way, though we don’t know the exact force distribution in Mariupol, it has become clear that there are at least 3 distinct groups operating in several directions which have finally ‘linked’ at central points and are now often operating together. These are 1. the DPR forces from the north, the Chechen forces from the East, and now a special Russian Marine force from the West – what appears to be ‘Naval Infantry’. Several videos can be seen of these forces now operating in conjunction, though how the command is distributed between them is uncertain as of yet:
Also, this might be graphic but a must-see. This is what Azov battalion has become in Mariupol: https://www.bitchute.com/video/lVf6xGHKXEBx/
A Ukrainian transport helicopter was also shotdown yesterday in a desperate last ditch attempt to save some of the Azov leadership. It tried to come in stealthily, flying low over the Azov Sea, bypassing Russian land corridor / radar coverage, but once it got in close it was nevertheless detected and obliterated.
-The administrative center building in Nikolayev was hit by Kaliber missile this morning. Official Ukrainian estimates claimed only 20-30 casualties (wounded plus killed), but chatrooms of Nikolayev have apparently begun to leak actual lists of casualties of confirmed casualty names on Telegram, and reports indicate there’s 200+ so far and possibly will be higher than the barracks of the 79th Brigade which was struck last week. Rumors after that hit last week stated that Ukraine command issued an immediate decree to no longer allow publishing of any ‘aftermath’ photos like the ones on the 79th which showed gruesome dead of the UAF. This means we likely won’t see much photo confirmation but the sheets with casualty names can be seen on the Telegrams of Colonel Cassad and others.
-In other news, Deputy Head of the State Duma Committee Vladimir Shamanov today has announced that ‘Russian Spetsnaz’ have caught some of the perpetrators of the horrific torture / war crimes done to our artillery troops on the eastern outskirts of Kharkov the other day. Here is his statement:
“Today they are lying at their feet, asking for mercy” – Deputy Head of the State Duma Committee Vladimir Shamanov claims that those who mocked Russian servicemen in Ukraine were captured by Russian special forces.
“Those who bullied our servicemen did not rejoice for long, after three days our special forces captured these bastards. Today they roll at their feet, begging for mercy. I will call their names. One bastard was called Sergei Velichko, nicknamed Chile. The second – Konstantin Nemechev. Both bastards grew up as Nazis from a fan group of the local Metalist football club. This is what they themselves told during the first interrogations. And so it will be with everyone who is unworthy, violating the Geneva Convention, to act with our prisoners of war.”
Some however are skeptical of these claims until Russian leadership produces photos/videos proving these people are captured.
-In economic news, the Ruble has now almost fully, miraculously recovered to its pre-war exchange rate against the USD.
Let’s recall that the West claimed the Ruble would catastrophically drop to 200 against 1 USD. Instead it spiked to a high of 130-150 and has been steadily rebounding, now almost completely back to normal, which was in the 75-80 range prior to February 24 and the onset of the special operation. This is a massive economic shock and humiliation to the entire West, to say the least.
On top of that, Russian stocks have opened back up and they are gaining positively as well:
-One last thing to note. I’ve said numerous times now that U.S. and Western equipment in general has been a catastrophic failure in the Ukraine. But there’s some additional important news that continues to reveal the veracity of these claims.
Firstly, this Pentagon reporter has stated that the Pentagon plans to buy hundreds of FEWER Javelin missiles this year than it did last year, DESPITE giving away thousands of them to Ukraine. https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1508517753413636096
It is now clear that the Pentagon leadership has seen the utterly dismal performance of the Javelin and now wants to phase it out from U.S. forces. Remember, out of thousands of Javelins supplied, thousands of videos published by Ukraine, not a single successful usage of the system has ever been recorded. In fact the vast majority of successful Ukrainian defeats of Russian armor happens at the ends of legacy Soviet/Russian systems and mostly artillery. Russian forces continue to find Javelin units completely unused because Ukr troops have found them to be unwieldy and impractical in combat – too long to set up and use, too heavy to carry around, and not effective even when used. For urban combat where troops have to be as light, mobile, and agile as possible, the Javelin is absolutely worthless with its large CLU interface and overly-bulky design. The Pentagon has clearly seen the failure of the over-hyped system.
-In another sudden and unexpected report, the Pentagon now wants to scrap DOZENS of F-22’s.
They have suddenly decided they want to ‘divert funding’ to the next generation platform. There is clearly connection here to something the Pentagon has witnessed in Ukraine that has left it scrambling to rethink its approach to modern warfare. You see all proxy wars are laboratories for Great Powers to test and assess their equipment. The F-22 was the flagship of the U.S. airforce, the ONLY plane forbidden by Congress to sell to any ally even in ‘export version’. The F-35 was meant for the export market while F-22 was supposed to be solely the unique and unmatched great hope and pinnacle of American engineering that would lead to victories in future wars. But it seems now that the Pentagon has had a taste of what modern Russian air defenses / radars are capable in Ukraine and is no longer confident of the F-22’s chances. It has suddenly scrambled to desperately dump the F-22 and prepare for the “next generation” platform titled the ‘Next Generation Air Dominance’ project, which would consist of heavily utilizing integrated drone warfare and possible drone swarms controlled by the pilot. This appears to indicate the U.S. sees no other way to defeat Russian air defenses and airpower in general apart from massive over-utilization of integrated drone saturation – it can no longer count on F-22’s after seeing how Russia has completely nullified the Ukrainian air and anti-air capabilities, which by the way were orders of magnitude greater than the capabilities of the Serbians in the 90’s who humiliated the U.S. air force several times.
-Also, following Lugansk Head Paschenik’s statements earlier, that a referendum would be conducted for Lugansk to officially join the RF, the head of DPR Pushilin today has also issued statements saying that the DPR will hold a referendum to officially join the Russian Federation but only after the conflict has ended. Either way, it is big news for LPR/DPR to look forward to after cessation of hostilities. If successful, this would add another massive 3.8 million population injection into the RF which, added to Crimea, would bring RF’s total population in the range of 148,000,000. Keep in mind, prior to the events of 2014, RF’s population was 143 million.
-Lastly, many people have been asking why Russia isn’t crippling Ukrainian internet capabilities. Today’s report claims massive Russian cyber attack has brought Ukraine internet connectivity to a mere 13% nationwide. https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/internet-provider-ukraines-military-hit-most-severe-cyberattack-invasion
I don’t have your bio Nightvision, but well written my man. Kudos
Thank you Nightvision.
What about the negotiations?
Negotiations didn’t arrive nowhere, although people where temporary sad because of a misunderstanding of Medansky’s words.
Russia is not agreeing in anything, but Ukraine position is apparently softer. In reality, they are lying (as they did with Minsk I and II) and nobody believe them, nor us nor Russia. But this conflict is in the eyes of the world so negotiation while your military is doing his work is always good (although empty).
Russia may have different reasons to stop progressing in Kiev, but we should understand that stop progressing is not the same as retreating. Those troops will still there, annoying and fixing Ukrainians troops and in any moment they can be activated.
But for sure is a strategical movement, not related with negotiations although Medansky linked both to seems to play nice.
Apart from that my biggest concern is the genocide in Eastern Ukraine. That really shocked me and make me unbelievable angry, it is a absolute satanist, evil, NAZI genicide and the population in the West and in the World have to see it. We have to share it becuase the mass media is totally hiding or justifying if
I have made a telegram channel where I summarise it die my friends and family
Since they start to see those atrocities they lost the interest in supporting Ukraine. It has been a hard debate but useful.
Please Do the same, create telegram channel, show the atrocities to your friends and families. Fight against the Orwellian mass media and at least help with it the people of Dombass.
Thousands of small telegram channels are more difficult to close than a big one, and we can share the truth about the ukranians Nazis. But we need involvement and fight for the truth!
It would be interesting if these Telegram channels are made public here, in the Saker, so we also could use them to convince reluctant others. Could it be done? Thanks.
Thanks for your updates, Nightvision — they are always appreciated. Good to see your sitrep as a regular feature on the blog, I hope you will continue with this.
agreed ^^. i’ve always searched for your insights & observations & have learned a great deal from you. much appreciated, thank you. & thank you saker for endorsing & featuring nightvision.
I agree, excellent work Nightvision. I’m glad to see your work being published on this site.
Saker, your staff is coming together so well. I’m glad to see the vineyard thriving :-)
Yes, I agree. Your comments are also very welcome, Nightvision. Many thanks.
Apart from the awful fire discipline the Chechens looked as happy as pigs in shit. I cringed a couple of times hoping the guy up front shooting won’t stand up when the guy behind shoots right over his head. Perhaps they’re just getting overexcited from being filmed but still…. But hey they’re getting the job done!
Where the hell does this “pigs in shit” comes from? I’ve also seen a comment on MoA to the same effect.
This is HIGHLY disrespectful to Chechen muslim fighters. Please wash your mouth with soap.
I’m atheist btw…
I agree that the term is insulting. I also agree that the Chechen are highly motivated and highly wasteful in ammo use. Dumping full mags with each trigger pull can play havoc with supplies.
But as long as it works…
haha Cave I am an American Muslim so I know your reference to halal/kosher standards, but I don’t think A.L. was being deliberately disrespectful …. the Chechens do have an unusual mixture of levity and almost casual fatalistic bravery, as well as a propensity to film themselves perhaps too much.
My daughter’s MIL keeps pigs, and they are slaughtered by Tatars. I asked them to save the blood so that I could make blood/black sausage. They were happy to do so. They run a halal and Russian butcher’s shop in town. They asked me to teach them how to make blood sausage. They would never eat it, but they are happy to sell it to non-muslims. The sausage is haram, but making it is not, at least according to them. Whether food is haram or halal doesn’t worry me, but whenever my daughters’ cousins visited, I always cooked halal meals as they were muslims. My attitude is, JUST BE RESPECTFUL, (sorry for the capitals, but I believe that the point should be shouted)!
HARD to think of anything worse to eat than the blood of a pig…maybe uranium…..but thats about it
It is an American farmer’s saying. They know nothing whatever of Muslims and could not imagine anyone not liking bacon and eggs for breakfast and ham for thanksgiving. Tell the Chechens no offense meant.
Thank you for bringing this up. I am agnostic and I too find this expression highly insulting to Thechen fighters that risk their lives to fight Nazis to save the local population.
Soldiers that fight for a righteous cause should be respected no matter what culture they hail from. Perhaps the original poster did not realize the nature if the expression is not appropriate as it is a common expression in some part of North America. It still behooves us all to learn about culture of others so as to not offend them.
Trying to compare this operation to Desert Storm is like comparing apples to a squash, for Saddam lacked the major ingredients of any defending force outnumbered, out gunned with no one to shell out billions in weapons along with intelligence from the start caught in the desert with no place to run it turned into a turkey shoot or simply an attack on another Third World country, and we ended up leaving there.
I do not see how leaving Nazis in Kiev is a win
I think it is a waste of time to try to predict what the final agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be. We not not know! I think an agreement is far away.
One thing you can be sure is that whatever Russia ultimately does regarding Ukraine, it will be what they decided to do Prior to the beginning of the military operation.
Me neither, but I learned something in this war, and I think the Russian leadership did, too. You see, the Nazis are not a negligible minority in Ukraine; about half the population are either Nazis or Nazi supporters, and the other half are victims of terror. I don’t see how one would denazify Ukraine without killing at least half its population, and that would be… impractical. Furthermore, If anything is clear, it’s that America and the West in general are the enemy, and Ukraine is merely a blunt instrument. This instrument has now been sufficiently broken as not to be immediately useful for waging any kind of aggressive war against Russia anymore, and, also, a precedent has been set where any kind of bombardment of Russian forces or people will be met with destruction of Ukrainian assets deeply into the background. Also, all kinds of NATO assets have been either destroyed or seriously degraded in Ukraine, which was a major setback for America and the UK. So, having all of that in mind, and also having in mind that Ukraine can’t really be pacified without dealing with America properly, it’s now time to wrap it up, say they’ve done as much as possible at this phase, and continue with issuing an ultimatum to America to back off with its nuclear posture assets to pre-1997 borders or something will be done about them.
Denazification is not all physical. Laws will be changed, objectification will be punished, legally, like hollowco$t denial. Life will be made uncomfortable for them. They will move westward to other nazified countries. They will fit right in with Convoy bustin’ knuckle dragers, anywhere Freedom tries to raise its weary head.
Another way to handle the fanatics is to send them to reeducation schools as the Chinese did with some extremist Uighurs in Xinjiang. Those schools are not prisons but rather some form of education to teach skills to help the students find meaningful activities, businesses or jobs. I have seen an extensive video filmed on location and including interviews with graduates. Some will call the video propaganda but that is what brought me the closest to what was happening up there.
More than half of all Germans during WWII were nazis, and Germany is denazified without killing all of them. So, there is a way…
Just a guess, but I think that by withdrawing troops from Kiev, Russia would lure Ukraine into trying to deploy those troops somewhere else (maybe donbass ?) which would help to reduce their number in the city when Russia eventually invaded.
I don’t think Kiev ever was an interesting target; the Russians obviously only wanted to keep it blocked and keep the Ukrainian military distracted until more strategically relevant targets were dealt with. I really don’t know what anyone could do with Kiev – it’s not really a friendly city with only a handful of Nazis in power; it’s so big that Russia would have to use huge forces to conquer it, and when they did, what exactly would be achieved? No, it would be foolish to waste resources, lives and time on that. The goal is to degrade the Ukrop military to the point where they are no longer dangerous, and to degrade NATO presence in Ukraine to the point where it can’t be a danger to Russia. Also, the goal is to completely crush the forces that kept Donbass under siege (and give Ukropistan such a lesson that nothing similar will ever be attempted), which still has to be done or this will be a true failure.
This is a workable theory, but Russia also put up a lot of war inventory for that decoy
But did they?
Did they really?
Or did they simply make a lot of noise and hullabaloo with what forces they did send to the edge of Kiev, and that fooled you into thinking that they had poured a lot of resources into that region?
The thing about a feint is that it isn’t worth doing if you can’t make it look convincing.
It is if they are reduced to a Nazi tribute act in their own bedrooms,that way they can’t do any damage.
It’s a bargaining chip, demonstrating to critics and supporters that Russia is negotiating in good faith. Russians know the Ukr side is being coerced by the US to fight-on militarily while appearing to negotiate peace (with obviously unacceptable terms). So Russia apparently removes the looming threat of storming the capital city, giving Ukr a chance to basically surrender while saving face and many lives. Meanwhile the initial objective of demilitarizing the UA in the east continues apace. Russia would prefer to have them surrender instead of obliterating them. Denazification will happen regardless of the peace talks.
In other words, everything is going according the plan. Ukraine will be denazified. Period.
I enjoy your comments, Nightvision, and here I get to enjoy a thorough and well-researched update.
We’re all hoping that this ends soon, that the RF’s stated goals are achieved, and that minimal civilian and RF casualties suffer as a result.
Thank you, and God Bless!
why Russia isn’t crippling Ukrainian internet capabilities? There have been videos of Ukrainians mocking the poor performance of their NATO-trained armed forces, and calling them mindless cannon-fodder. They’re probably getting that information from the internet. There may be information-war advantages to keep it functional.
Like when they document their war-crimes? I’m predicting the clueless West will shut theirs first.
Really good analysis Saker. Great stuff by Scott Ritter. Here are a couple of questions for others:
1. March 31st is coming up very quickly. Will Europe and others pay for their gas in rubles or will Russia have to shut them off?
2. Dr. Jim Willie said that just before the invasion by Russia, the Ukrainian banks were hit by a cyber attack. Their hard drives and storage were supposedly wiped clean. I would think the Russians or whomever did this grabbed all the data. Why? To shut off the USA, US Congress, Biden and NWO-Zato money laundering operation in the Ukraine. This money has also be used to pay bribes globally to politicians, hospitals, media, doctors, etc to keep COVID going.
2a. Was Omnicron variant created by the white hats to end COVID? So was the combination of Omnicron and cutting off the bribe money laundered through the Ukraine, the thing that ended COVID? They are still trying to push it but it is over. Russia invading essentially ended COVID.
2b. Was the catalyst for Russia to move when Bill Gates said a new pandemic was coming soon and Russia had to move against Hunter Biden’s biolabs?
That what MSM reports:
Good, let the sheeple believe they won.. (as if any person in the Western street really cared 2 hoots about the Ukies), the reality will still stand. Crimea and Donbas will be settled, the Ukies are just playing tough to show gonads (now removed), and save some face.
Of all Russian leaders, I think the west respected only Stalin.
They knew, Stalin was able to kill.
That is what west respects.
Any weakness, and you get killed.
That is so called Western civilization.
Some Russians have a lesser value complex, they want to be loved in the west, they do not understand what is the only way to earn respect in the west.
Russians are loved and respected more at a grass roots level than you might believe.
Some of us like the values you espouse and cherish. They are the same ones we were taught that our countries espouse and cherish.
Thanks for a well written and thoroughly documented overview, Nightvision. A beacon in a flood of screaming stories.
That new stuff about the F-22 will be a real headbanger in DC, oh my. Whether they are going to built a new drone like the high-end one drily shot down over Iran, or a swarm of dinky-toy F-35, it sure will be a smashing marketing success.
My compliments for your report.
What they’re going to build is a copy of Su-57 / Su-75 with the robotic side kicks flying with them in a networked way
Those F22’s are $200 Million EACH. Lose five of those and that’s a billion US dollars gone.
Javelins are hardly cheap either – cost seem to be in the (very broad) range of $80,000 – $200,000 PER MISSILE.
Certainly pads the bottom line of Raytheon and Lockheed-Martin though, which is really all we need to know.
The CDN Gov will walk back getting the F35s once more, costing millions, and pick up the F22s dumped… just because….
Succint, quite descriptive, and the reference to E. von Manstein style gives it a historic depth so rare these days. Much appreciated.
Best regards, Spiral
Why not drop a neutron bomb at the factory? Keep the infrastructure intact and slaughter the nazi scum en masse.
Well, first of all, it’s a slippery slope. Second, why break eggs with a hammer when a spoon will suffice. Third, neutron activation is a thing.
A neutron bomb is a hydrogen bomb without the cobalt encasing. As such, it must still be set off by a fission bomb, so there will be a destructive shock wave from that initial detonation. The hydrogen part detonating in a fusion reaction produces a shock wave too; It’s only the shock wave from the (missing) cobalt part that’s missing. What it means is that a neutron bomb still leads to some physical destruction. It could be detonated high up in the air to limit that destruction, but in that case the neutron shower also gets diluted and spread over a wider area.
Could be too provocative for NATO.
Father of All Bombs (FOAB)?
No need to go so far… they can just send sound waves that the body cannot stand or send high db sound that will blow ear drums or a combination of that
when the body cannot take the sound waves the circulatory system just collapses
but all these are cruel forms of killing
Were the two Ukie soldiers speaking German?
Keep it simple, keep them bottled up and surrounded and starve them into submission. Then try them and send them to a coal mine in Sibera.
They will all die of disease. Humans aren’t designed to live cramped up like that. Where do they defecate? This is a Wuhan biolab kind of “human petri dish” harboring all sorts of diseases. Its a shit way to die. Literally. The Russians could release anopheles mosquitoes into the place to spread malaria.
A neutron bomb only exists in propaganda (it really is sooo obvious), so it can only be dropped in media, which is unlikely to change things at the factory.
Well done Brother Nightvision, your style is a pleasure to read and your updates always inform.
“The administrative center building in Nikolayev was hit by Kaliber missile this morning”
Many are saying that after giving the non-Nazi Ukrainian formations five weeks of chances, and after the revelations of sick POW videos, that Russia is hitting the enemy in Donbass with unrestrained force now. Is this your impression? It is a mixed bag – will unfortunately kill more dumb youth (although I heard average Ukie army age is 40+?!) but wind down this front. At least to silence the 8 years long continuous barbaric shelling.
“State Duma Committee Vladimir Shamanov today has announced that ‘Russian Spetsnaz’ have caught some of the perpetrators of the horrific torture / war crimes done to our artillery troops on the eastern outskirts of Kharkov”
I hope their example is publicized widely. “Give them a fair trial, then hang them.” It will scare some from committing more such crimes too.
I am glad to see the cyberwarfare at work. Although will be sad to see Mr. Gonzalo broadcasting less, it is key. Much of normal Russians in Ukraine seem to be held hypnotized by western media. One commentator posted an anecdote how much of the irrational hatred of Russia by their local cousins quickly dissipated once disconnected from UkroNazi media.. MSM is poison in any country to the unsuspecting folks
A most useful sitrep, thank you for that.
There is a concern that Russian forces regrouping from Kiev to the East will allow the Ukies to do likewise. Surely the Russians must have thought of that, but what would be their reasoning? Have these Ukie forces around Kiev been sufficiently degraded to be of not much value anymore?
By ‘regrouping’ it does not mean they are abandoning all positions, I think just downscaling. For instance, in the Hostomel region of NW Kiev where the infamous Antonov airport battles took place, it appears to me Russia has set up an entire fortified forward base there. There were videos several days ago showing soldier’s barracks already erected on the premises and a possible field hospital in region etc. So in short, I don’t expect such areas to be abandoned. I still think the ultimate objective will likely see the capture of Kiev eventually so these forces will have to stay here and continue blocking Kiev from many sides and applying continuous pressure to the Ukrop detachments around Kiev. There will likely still remain significant forces here that would not allow Ukraine to sufficiently relieve anything in the east. They are still effectively pinned in eastern Kiev, Brovary region.
On top of which as you mentioned they’ve been degraded to the point where they don’t have much armor or motorized equipment left so redeploying would be difficult or impossible anyway. Not only oil/fuel low, but they have few if any trucks/tanks etc and are mostly foot infantry. Daily reports indicate they beg authorities/companies/civilians to donate trucks to them. In fact they’ve already been stealing trucks from corporate sponsors just to get around in the region https://www.bitchute.com/video/XNJCFqySGRoS/
Could be that Russia is concocting a ruse to get the ukies out of the city and march toward the East, and then they will be snuffed out. This will lead to a weakened kiev garrison.
The soldier called DHL, was given the van. No stealing. It means DHL supports the war. This is worse, in my mind, than some random soldiers stealing.
DHL allegedly released a statement saying 6 trucks were “stolen” by the Ukies. But I bet this is just a public face-saving lie. I wouldn’t put it past them from handing the trucks over. Or maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle, they gave them the trucks under pretenses of some other type of use, then they saw the trucks were being used to truck around artillery units to the frontline and changed their story — who knows.
….. Have these Ukie forces around Kiev been sufficiently degraded to be of not much value anymor……
Yes – it’s basically just Volksturm and deadenders left. The last few days have seen Ukie officers surrender in bunches.
Or the Ukies try to attack those now less-strong positions around Kiev.
It could go both ways.
Yes that’s a concern but the ones around Kiev have slightly pulled back and are fortifying which means they now have a great force projection via defensive fortifications than they did when they were on the offensive and ‘exposed’. Plus Russia always has the air power advantage that could allow the driving back of any attackers in emergency situations.
Ukr. forces are still very strong in numbers unfortunately.
In terms of infantry quantity? Yes. In terms of literarily anything else? Nope: Armor, artillery, air, supplies – it’s almost all gone. They’re reduced to WW1 warfare. That still makes them dangerous in cities, but nowhere else.
Thank you Saker !!!!!
Nightvision is THE premier analyst on the topic.
Got this from a Russian friend. PDF file.
The whole truth about Ukraine’s crimes in the Donbass
please check it out!
Thank you very much, @Nightvision for your comprehensive and detailed report.
The news about the F-22 is indeed startling, though it does add to a growing suspicion in my mind that, despite all the Western political posturing and blustering ( which I am constantly subjected to), behind the scenes the military and technical analysts have told the politicians there is little to no chance of a Western victory in a conventional conflict on the European land-mass.
Field Marshal Lord Montgomery’s Rules of War:
1. Never march on Moscow.
2. Never fight a land war in Asia.
3. Never march on Moscow.
Excellent update as per usual Night vision.
I always look forward to reading them.
Outstanding report, bravo!
I really liked the Scott Ritter tutorial as well.
The usual bullshit …
Why would Russia have to take down Ukrainian internet by “cyberattacks” rather than by… cutting lines?
Internet was specifically designed to flow around cut lines in case of nuclear attack.
Less infrastructural damage I would guess. That way they can always turn it back on later when they’ve taken over. But physically destroying the fiber trunks and all that would probably cost massive $$ on the backend to rebuild in the territories Russia may control afterwards. At least that’s my guess.
Curious, how much is ‘star link’ contributing to the success of keeping lines going, from civilian to assisting in artillery targeting locations?
SL may also work in the interest of Russia in geolocating mercenaries etc.
There’s word that SL works simple by digging antennas in dirt or something. It could also be just a broad form of disinformation. Hard to know for sure.
Almost certainly very little, unless starlink has vast amounts of unused bandwidth to throw away. Why? Because satellite comms are physically restrained in a way landlines are not: They all share the same spectrum! That is: There’s a given number of frequencies and encodings, and all sats over the target area have to share it. So at some point launching more sats won’t increase bandwidth, since all freqs are used up. Compare this to landlines: You can always lay more cables without them interfering with each other.
That’s not just theory: Do a websearch on the internet backbone and capacities of individual links. You will find that landlines are responsible for nearly all bandwidth, and sats are mostly used to connect continents.
Oh, and finally: Starlink won’t help if landlines are cut, because those landlines also are responsible for 100% of the so-called “last mile”. So no matter how you look at it, satellites are highways at best, not town roads.
“You will find that landlines are responsible for nearly all bandwidth, and sats are mostly used to connect continents.”
The second part is not true. Sea cables are mostly used to connect continents.
“The second part is not true. Sea cables are mostly used to connect continents.”
It is true, but the wording is ambigious, so i apologize for the mistake. What i meant was: “Existing sats are mostly used to connect continents.” Yes, sealines provice even more bandwidth, but that wasn’t my point: My point was that sat-bandwidth is such a scarce ressource, it’s mostly used to add redundancy to intercontinental links, because that’s the only advantage sats have: Easy long distance links.
Thanks again for another great report, Nightvision!
Outstanding sitrep, thank you, keep it up.
So happy that you now have your own column! I would seek out all your comments every day! This is great.
All the best!
I think the Western reaction to this will be A; Increased idiotic Government/Corporate directed hatred towards Russia/Russians and B; Repression towards the Western dissidents on par with what Lavrentiy Beria did during the Stalin era.
This is like Bizarro World, everything they accuse Russia of, they do.
Gréât analysis of both military and economics !
Excellent work NightVision! Very thorough and punchful to the key points. I almost thought it was Saker himself, until I read the author.
Great read Nightvision,thanks very much,some really positive news
Good explanation of the military feint/strategic retreat and pinning actions. Feints within feints within feints…
well written…lot of work gone into this many hours of sorting out and reflection.. thank you ..careful of getting addicted?
thanks saker for adding to the sites repertoire.
It’s great to see this page featured on Veterans today!
Z for Victory!
Thank you all!
Thank you, another fine summary of the never ending battles Russia faces when dealing with (1) U.S. (2) EU (3) N.A.T.O. (4) United Nations, which can be grouped as the collective western coalition of global unipolar dominants.
Russia still has challenges after the military campaign is over (around the end of May, in my opinion) as to reshaping new geographic boundaries to expand its influence and protection of the fatherland. The nation’s economic growth and its currency valuation in the international financial markets is still in a tenuous position that must be addressed to strengthen itself going forward in the new multipolar world.
The Russian leadership must be resolved to a steady hand and tack along the right course to future success and not succumb to the political machinations the west deploys to try and stop its decline as a world economic power.
..its currency valuation in the international financial markets is still in a tenuous position..”? Why so. Russ. has over 25,000 tonnes of gold, and when that revalues to it’s true price, after the derivative market collapses, as is now unfolding after Basel3, them Russkies all will be laughing.
Not forgetting the Ch. gas deals, Indian oil, coke, coal and gas deals and the mad, suicidal Euros paying in Roubles or gold?
‘A source from Kiev further has reported that “Russia now has MORE armor units accumulated on the border than it did prior to the war…” This is extremely telling, and if true, a clear sign that a major phase 2 operation is in the preparatory stages.’
If true? It must be true is some nameless source from Kiev says so. Besides which, you’re using it as if it is. And what do you know about any Russian plans for a “phase 2”?
my deepest thanks for the very informative and accurate sitrep.
I feel like freely sitting on a mind & soul safe island surrounded by informational manipulating noise.
I’m grateful to every contributor conveying here:-)
One bastard was called Sergei Velichko, nicknamed Chile
That one could well be a mercenary from Chile. Many times when Chileans travel or live abroad they are called simply Chile by the locals, for some reason.
As a ex pat living abroad and ex military person who served in the US Army I have but two words for president Putin. FINISH IT. No remorse, no pity for the vanquished, put the rabid dog down. This is bigger than Ukraine, it’s the new world, not the world the globalist like Soros and Schwab and Gates dream of. Get it down and be done with it.
The soldier called DHL, was given the van. No stealing. It means DHL supports the war. This is worse, in my mind, than some random urcaine soldiers stealing.
“-In economic news, the Ruble has now almost fully, miraculously recovered to its pre-war exchange rate against the USD.” – and my friends were laughing at me when I was telling them that Putin is much better chess player and judo master than any western leader…
I personally feel, Russia should go all in, and ignore the west (Since they’ve already cancelled Russia),
forget about a functioning government, or trying to insert a puppet regime which could be coup’ed in 5years.
Keep delaying with negotiations, until the country is completely in Russia’s hand.
The best way to solve this shit between the West and East is take over Ukraine as a ‘state’ in entirety whole and include it part of Russia pre-Soviet times. No need to deal with governments, politics, NaziNato, EU, biolabs, at its borders ever again etc.
It’s better to deal with unruly Ukrainian people than to go over this scenario of re-invading the country in 10-15years time. Anything else would constantly cause issues, remember the West can never ever be trusted with their words, any signing of agreements are mute and worthless with The Empire of lies.
Spot-On. Totally agree with your view of the situation.
The signals however, coming from the Russians, appear to show some faltering of their gains, and a willingness to back down…One can only hope that this is a short-term tactic, a feint, whilst retaining the strategic objective of consolidating the hold onto all Ukrainian territory.
When you say “Unruly Ukrainian people” There are the three groups to puzzle over>
– ALL territory east of the Dnieper and coastal from Mariupol to Odessa given over to pure Russian ethnics, not just the Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts, integrated into RF. This should be a ;no-brainer’
– The central plains, given over to the ‘unruly’ Ukrainians – surrounded and controlled and gradually further denazified. -This is quite doable…
-The Galician territory – Maybe this area should be given back to Poland… as a gesture of righting historic wrongs…as a means to ‘confuse’ russophobic Polish leaders into being more conciliatory as they gain territory per se, as well as gaining their OWN former territory…and getting rid of the Polish-Ukrainians who form the hardcore of the unreconstructed Nazi mindset…a marriage Made in Hell for the Poles.
If i were the Kremlin, i would negotiate very hard for concessions from the Poles/NATO, when dangling this carrot in front of them….and then enjoy the show when the Poles have to deal with the Galicians…
Great Sitrep! Keep up the great work!
Excellent report in both format and content!!
The news on Javelin and F-22 is critical as it says the gap in weapons and systems capabilities between NATO and Russia is widening AND is recognized by the Outlaw US Empire’s military and being acted upon. And the top Russian tank isn’t being fielded in Ukraine, nor has NATO faced the best Russian jets. The Europeans need to ask themselves: Why go with a loser whose gear is inferior and costs more when the winner doesn’t actually threaten you unless you’re a Nazi and offers a better economic future?
The much-lauded F22 is neither reliable nor “cheap” to operate, having gained the very justifiable reputation of a “hangar queen”.
It is useful to remember that ALL Russian military aircraft can operate from un-paved surfaces – obviously with a reduction in payload, but they can operate nevertheless. The Western aircraft need their runways to be near-pristine, which obviously is an “easy target” for any potential aggressor – damage (not necessarily destroy) runways and air capability is lost.
Yep in fact the hangar queen just crashed at Eglin in Florida last week, another one bites the dust.
Excellent sitrep Nighvision, and thanks. Been following your updates and replies in the comments sections for quite a while and always found them informative and well reasoned. Being a Russian speaker is a huge advantage in this kind of situation, especially as most of us get our information from less-than-optimal translations that are, at best, sporadic.
I find your comments about the piss poor performance of the javlins very interesting, as well as the note about the F-22 that is suddenly moth balled in for further production.
That’s not all the US military found out either. They probably noted the relatively poor performance of the existing Ukie radar and the compromised performance of whatever EW they must have supplied to the Ukraine. no doubt the way the Russians handled the oh-so-scary man-pads and the effectiveness they displayed in finding, identifying and targeting the Buks and whatever other anti-arcraft defense the Ukies had were also noted. Even the satellite data Nato/US provided to the VDU turned out to be not as useful as hoped (though it was useful as it helped the Uk side avoid some mishaps and mount a few minor offensives here and there).
All in all I expect that top military procurers and weapon designers are having a series of very sad days. They are finding out what many of us have long suspected – that the Russians have leap-frogged the US in way too many areas and that all those wonderful Aerospace produced systems are simply not what they are cracked up to be, and that saying it mildly.
Two more notes on this:
1. As a US taxpayer I should protest, as should we all. So, we have sacrificed healthcare, education and science/technology developments for what? a bloated defense budget that enriched the big companies and their vendors and di not even provide the kind of security/defense it was supposed to. That, while the Russians, on fraction of that budget achieved, effectively military superiority and that just in the areas we know and have seen demonstrated. IOW, we got a lousy deal for the money and that’s gonna be my next big political pitch (not that it’d do any good…).
2. The Russian engineering mentality has been vindicated as has their tactical/strategic approach to battlefield management. There is such a thing in this world called “good enough”, and that’s why some of those old Soviet pieces of equipment performed better than the more modern toys provided to the ukraine by the West. The America approach has always been to let perfection be the enemy of the good, and that’s been manifested both in defense related areas and commercial enterprises. So Russians get more bang for the buck and we, in the US, get bupkes.
And BTW, that “good enough” approach also manifested itself n the military strategy apprach f the Russians, just as it did in Syria. It meant, among others, not biting more than one could chew, and also have both clear goals and an exit strategy in mind. Something the Americans don’t seem capable of doing, and obviously haven’t in any of the countries they invaded and/or occupied.
All in all, thanks again for putting in all this work. I am sure many found it extremely enlightening.
“As a US taxpayer I should protest, as should we all. So, we ha..ve sacrificed healthcare, education and science/technology developments for what? a bloated defense …”
I would add, you have also sacrificed the friendship of over a billion Chinese people who just wanted to be friends with American people (from 美国, literally the beautiful country).and you have also sacrificed the friendship and goodwill of the Russian people. That’s very sad.
Exactement what got the German losing WWII: they had everything thebestest by Porsche or Vont Braun but lost to the sheer numbers of good enough Soviet and US stuff.
I doubt I would call the T34 ‘good enough’ – it was without equal in terms of durability, manoeuvrability in difficult terrain and firepower. What it lacked was command and control but it certainly gave Guderian a heck of a shock when the Wehrmacht first encountered it. By the end of the war Soviet artillery was quite fearsome.
It’s a shame the RF shot down the UAF Mi8 that attempted to rescue the Azov leadership and their NATO/CIA advisers. No doubt those bastards are otherwise well dug in the Avozstal plant and will be difficult to eliminate. Surely the smarter move would have been to let the Mi8 in, collect the Avoz scumbags and their allies from the Avozstal factory and then shoot it down on the way out. Nice and neat and reducing the risk to RF ground forces attempting to storm the Avozstal factory. Would also be quite funny imagining the fleeting elation those neo-Nazi filth would have felt believing they might just escape right up until the moment a RF SAM blows the chopper to smithereens and sends those scum to hell.
that’s a good point although I would imagine that:
1. RF preferably wants the top Azov leadership alive if possible in order to put them on trial. Medvedev has released a statement a couple weeks ago stating that he is in favor of reversing the Russian Federation’s ban of the death penalty so that war criminals after the war can be tried and put to capital punishment in Russia.
2. probably can’t take the risk because what if the helicopter instead was a gunship or suicide chopper meant to attack Russian forces in Mariupol? It’s too risky to allow it to come on land where it may start shooting at RF forces positioned near the Azovstal factory. So I suppose they did the most cautious thing and blew it out of the sky before hand.
The news about the negotiations make me feel very uneasy. It is clear the US has to submit Russia to vassalage or it will loose the Dollar which is the only thing keeping it afloat.
It makes no sense they would listen to Russia’s security concerns. It smells really fishy.
An ammunition depot exploded in the Belgorod region.
Was it a sabotage or missile strike ?
or perhaps there is a powerful establishment in Russia ( treaters), that try to derail operation Z.
I really do not like what’s going on.
I rather would like to see a trust of RAF along side Dnipro river from the south.
Please provide non-MSM links and facts to back your comment up. Mod.
So you are telling me that this explosion was faked ?
I got it from “Spriter” (@spriter99880) tweeter account.
Nightvision, thank you for your past and future efforts. Appreciated!
I perceive a ‘pattern’ to Putin’s use of force (in general) :
At the end of WWII, Soviet soldiers occupied Eastern European buffer zones without the consent of their population. This reality was politically-legitimized under the rubric of the Warsaw Pact. Over time, the occupied countries chafed under this semi-vassalage condition. Western powers also worked to inflame the resentment. The net result was generations with anti-Soviet feelings. As a result, all but the core of near-border states immediately distanced themselves from Russia after 1989-91.
Since coming to office, Putin seems to wait until a border nation has gotten into trouble due to variations of “color revolutions.” He lets the population stew while they are ‘Westernized’ into poverty and violence. Eventually, a significant portion of that population actually calls-out to Russia as a savior (or, in their eyes, at least the better of two evils). So, when Russia uses force, their troops are welcomed as liberators rather than occupiers. Timing is everything…
I see this ‘strategy’ applied to the Donbass region, as well as spreading west. Most ordinary Ukrainians have seen their nation gradually descend into poverty and lawlessness since the coup. And, Putin denied the LPR/DPR ‘rump’ entrance into RF for the longest time. Now, much of eastern/central Ukraine see Russians as enablers, not occupiers. They will clamor for entrance into the RF. Timing is everything…
Very good Nightvision :-) . I always found your posts very informative and enjoyed reading them.
How possible is it that Russia is pulling it’s forces back to the east in anticipation of an attack by NATO pushing through the center of Ukraine to relieve the Ukies in the pincer in the east?
If Russia didn’t think that NATO invasion was a very real possibility why not just leave the Ukies stuck in their shelters in the East and concentrate on Nikolaev and Odessa, real strategic objectives which would be a good thing to meet for decades and centuries to come.
Instead they pull back to the east to fight an immobile entrenched force cut off from resupply? No way.
Another thing: Berhart over at MoA has said the Russian attack on the Ukies in Donbass will happen late this week. What else will happen late this week? Gazprom will get the order to close the valves on gas to Europe because the Europeans refuse to pay for gas in rubles. I say there is a 95% chance we all wake up Thursday morning to reports of thermobaric missiles hitting Ukie deep shelters and 40% less natural gas in Europe.
The thing is, I don’t think this “pull back” is really anything, or much at all. The bigger deal is the fact that a large injection of fresh troops from outside the theatre is expected to happen (well it’s partly been happening for several days already like videos as these attest https://www.bitchute.com/video/L5gJRU1ijLNV/ ). From what I understand the pullback is very minor, just a few small groups — at least this is the way I’m understanding it for now. I don’t think any major change to the fronts as we have them now will be made. You won’t see some massive retreat or anything like that, rather Russian forces will simply stop going on the “offensive” in these key regions and will focus their offensive potential in Donbass instead. But like I said the main thing to understand is I don’t think much units will actually be pulled but rather fresh ones brought in. I don’t think there’s much NATO threat at the moment and the little there is certainly would not be to march all the way to eastern Ukraine. At the very best Poland would try to put “peacekeepers” into Lyvov / Volyn oblasts region.
And in regards to the cauldron, the problem is they don’t have enough forces to truly make a dent in it right now. You know the rule of thumb in warfare that I believe Saker has repeated numerous times is that an attacking force typically needs a 3 to 1 differential to defeat (particularly) an entrenched enemy. Right now if Ukies still have let’s say 50-80k left in Donbass, on their eastern contact line the DPR/LPR only have upwards of maybe 20-40k total. Russia on the south Volnovakha line might only have 10-20k or less (unknown at the moment) and some above around Kharkiv as well (again, no one knows exact figures). So this really is not an overmatch for the highly entrenched Donbass cauldron. Now if Russia can inject tens of thousands more troops, that will be a game changer as it can bring at least a 2:1 differential against the defenders, if not more.
You are the first I have seen to even broach the possibility of some sort of action being taken by NATO. I am not surprised to see it simply written off and dismissed as impossible by those who are married to a certain narrative. That’s a great way to get yourself surprised. Not like Happy Birthday surprised. The other kind.
The Russian general staff no doubt do consider the idea and must be constantly alert for any signs. Who knows what the insane criminals might attempt. No one better than the Russian high command. They won’t publicize what they may or may not know. But they will take steps to defeat it.
We will have to wait and see if their reasons for this decision become discernible in the near future.
Traveling across the centre of Ukraine would be like shooting ducks in a barrel. It is rolling steppe, here we call it prairies, tall grass makes for lousy cover and blowing a few strategic bridges will leave NATO with the same issue Russia has, and Russia is on home turf.
The US should—but won’t—forget about making new weapon systems and use the money to house the homeless and implement a real national health service.
Great job Nightvision. Thanks for the update.
Sad to see the casualties of war…. But “violent means have violent ends.”
The guy speaking in that video of the dead Azovs was very sad himself. He said “this is a tragedy, each man here is a father, a son, a husband…” etc., but he said what has to be done, has to be done because the Azovs won’t lay down their arms
For my own part, it’s too early to form any hard opinions about either side. Putin is in new territory in his own life and career as much as anyone in the West is. I do have an opinion that the economic sanctions were incredibly stupid on Europe and the rest of the G7’s part.
Ukrainians have been firing large numbers of Javelins a day, they’re just using them in lieu of artillery. Russian anti-artillery takes out any shelling from Ukrainian positions quickly.
I believe the world’s safest when the major powers are near in parity on their major weapons systems. That said, the Russians and Chinese are nowhere close to where the U.S. is with its F-22 and F-35 fighters. The Su-57 needs afterburners to go hypersonic, where it’s lit up bright on radar. The F-22 and F-35 have 0.25 mach speed edge the Russian fifth-generation fighter. The Chinese J-20 is reportedly bright on radar as well from Indian reports.
And sheer numbers. The Su-57 hasn’t gotten into production yet. The J-20 only has a few airframes in service and is still new. Neither are nearly as radical a departure as the F-35 is, and still the Su-57 and J-20 haven’t shaken out the bugs they’re sure to have. Everyone hates on the F-35. The thing looks like wrapping a bomb bay on a rocket with winglets.
Woah woah woah. There are so many wrong things with what you just wrote, I can’t simply let it pass up. First of all, the Su-57 in many ways is far superior to the F-22. I won’t even mention the F-35 because that’s a laughing stock of the world, no one respects. Only the F-22 is an actual comparable craft to the Su-57, though it is inferior to the Russian plane.
1. First of all neither fighter goes hypersonic, so I assume you meant supersonic. What you’re presumably referring to is the F-22’s much vaunted “supercruise capability”. Su-57 also has supercruise, at a slightly slower 1.3 rather than the “alleged” M1.5 of the F-22, so you’ve already displayed a shaky understanding of the topic. The F-35’s top speed is M1.6, MUCH SLOWER than the Su-57. Not sure where you got that the F-35 can go over Mach 2 — it can’t.
2. Secondly, Su-57 has a higher service ceiling than F-22. Another advantage for the Su-57.
3. Su-57 has far greater range both with and without external tanks than the F-22.
4. Su-57 has far more powerful radar and sensor capabilities and MORE OF THEM, period. Not only does F-22 lack ANY IRST (IR Search Track) whatsoever — which by the way is absolutely CRITICAL in fighting stealth on stealth because when both planes like F-22 / Su-57 are stealth, they can only “see” each other technically via infrared signature. And the fact that Su-57 can track an F-22 via IRST but F-22 can’t….that’s an instant dead F-22.
On top of that, Su-57 is the first ever craft to have integrated L-BAND radar on its wing tips and elsewhere which is a specifically designed long wave radar for tracking stealth. F-22 doesn’t. This puts F-22 decades behind the much more advanced Su-57 in the sensors department. The fact of the matter is, the F-22 is a sitting duck for the Su-57 and must rely exclusively on E-3 planes in order to function properly.
And on top of that, Su-57 L-band radars are built to be integrated via triangulation of other Su-57’s in the sky and other longwaves on the ground, this means that they can effectively detect stealth craft anywhere in the sky due to the known ability of L-band to be able to see stealth easily as its longer wavelengths cannot be destructively dispersed by the stealth planes angles or coatings.
5. And this is a big one that puts the Su-57 an entire generation ahead of the F-22. The F-22 is only 2D thrust vector! What a joke! The Su-57 is a full 5th generation 3D thrust vectoring engine. That means the F-22’s engines can ONLY vector on a yaw while the Su-57 can vector on PITCH and yaw, which explains its breathtaking abilities of acrobatics in the air that has wowed airshows for years, which the F-22 is utterly INCAPABLE OF. Even the Su-35 has 3D vectoring, which is why the Su-35 would outturn and easily destroy the F-22 in non BVR air combat. How can a plane call itself 5th generation without 3D thrust vector? That is literally one of the chief criteria for a plane to be 5th generation. The F-22 is an obsolete 90’s relic without the ability to detect stealth nor 3D vector and dogfight against a truly agile plane.
6. The Su-57 has greater thrust to weight ratio than the F-22 which means it’s literally more powerful. If you peruse this list you’ll see Su-35 is the greatest thrust to weight jet in the world and while the Su-57 is not listed because it’s an older list, both the Su-35 and Su-27 rank ahead of the F-22. The Su-57 uses very similar Saturn engines to the Su-35 so it’s thrust to weight is likely similar if not higher, which would put it well ahead of the F-22.
Btw this is one of the reasons the F-22 literally can’t perform the famous Pugachev’s Cobra maneuver invented in Russia because it requires advanced thrust vectoring capabilities. All Sukhoi planes can perform it, especially the Su-57 and the F-22 can’t — which is really embarrassing.
The only point you have is the F-22 has way more numbers of course. But those are drastically declining as it was just announced the Pentagon plans to scrap dozens of them, and the F-22 production line has finished long ago, so new ones will never be made.
Oh, and lastly remember our planes already tangled with your F-22 and the F-22 ran away.
Here’s the image posted by Russian pilot who locked on and tracked an F-22 (with its “super invisible stealth) over Syria. He got it via IRST, something the F-22 laughably lacks. And by the way, it seems he snuck up on it and the F-22 never even knew he was there.
And this was with the Su-35, the weaker and less advanced predecessor of the Su-57. So imagine what an Su-57 would do to an F-22.
I saw a Ukranazi video of what was claimed to be an NLAW missile hit on the turret of a Russian T72B3. The T72 drive on unscathed as though it did not even nieve the explosion.
Yep. And Ukrop supporters online claimed the tank later “burned out” and was abandoned. Yet I have a video from Russian channel that interviews the tank pilot who was there and he said the tank shrugged the missile off and was fine. Who should we believe?
Thank you for update. I am beginning to wonder if the two most dreaded words by the Nazis are “Allah Akbar”. I just scan Western media outlet headlines to get a sense of propaganda themes. But I did read one from CNN (others major outlets have pay walls), and it was confused and seemed at times to be a word salad. Maybe me, but sensed creeping panic from the “narrative managers”. Hey, maybe Russia is winning the war.
Well remember it was the Mariupol Azovs who coated their bullets in piglard and said they would “behead any Chechen that steps foot in Mariupol and play football with his head” and now the Chechens actually came and have wiped the floor with them.
I think negotiation announcement had 2 objectives, one is that Ukie statement is a negative for it’s army morale (who wants to fight and die if cease fire is near)? the other is an excuse for a technical retreat in Kiev, an Art of War move. The Ukies will now move into the vacated areas outside Kiev (leading the snake out of it’s den) and then the white swans will finish them all off and Kiev will be defenseless.
I think its a double move: Russian forces from Kiev were maneuvered SE to close the big cauldron. At the same time bluffing this as a goodwill gesture.
I would guess that the Russian army studies General Manstein’s book “Lost Victories” because he describes military movements and strategies a lot. The other Generals wanted him to be in charge of all military decisions instead of Hitler (as he recounts in this book). The war would have been more difficult for Russia if he had been in charge. In the Battle of Kursk, the Germans divided themselves into two main battle fronts/forces. Manstein led one of the two fronts and did not lose against a much larger Russian force. It was the other General who lost badly (described in his book). Manstein thought that the Battle of Kursk had to continue for there to be any chance, but Hitler now wanted to redirect troops to Western areas. We learn from him that this was the reason that battle was discontinued. Historians have ignored him on that. Manstein also came up with the invasion plan for the Battle of France and more.
The criminal treatment of the Russian prisoners was fairly told on CNN. The NYT also gave an accurate report about it published yesterday.
A college friend and military analyst, Michael Fredenburg, published in the National Review several articles criticizing the F-35 as a waste of money (back when the F-35 was in its testing phase) and recommending that the F-22 be refurbished instead . The info. about the F-22 must be right. I don’t know if it’s more risky to start anew with yet another major project like the F-35 was. I wonder if Fredenburg’s idea would apply this time.
Interesting news about the Javelins. No hypersonic weapons, no up to date planes (?), no Javelins…and the Russian proposal to NATO that said let’s not be adversaries anymore, was not accepted. (What a clause that was! Some appreciate it.)
Thanks for the info. The F-35 still has unique utility due to its VTOL ability which can’t be discounted. But the F-22 as a more straightforward frontline air superiority style fighter has several glaring weaknesses that make it a bit obsolete for future warfare, but not necessarily because it’s that bad, simply because anti air defense scales much better than fighter jets, stealth or not, and will usually nullify them and while jets can still play an important role, I guess U.S. rightfully sees the turning of the tide towards drone swarms and using frontline integrated network centric A.I. drone wingmen and such.
Russia too is going in the same direction:
it was explained in the recent ‘Combat Approved’ episode on the new Ohnotnik S-70 drone that it is being developed with these concepts in mind as well, and would eventually serve as an autonomous wingman that would fly ahead of Su-57’s into dangerous territory, feeding sensor data to the Su-57.
Do you really believe that the VTOL ability is that crucial?
I know that there are some issues regarding the landing in the usn aircraft carriers and the VTOL function can help but what about the fighting ability and especially the inability of hypersonic function. The sensor fusion plus the swarm mode can be a game changer but whithout fighting ability there are some serious disadvantages. for e.x. Iranians could successfully track Israelis F-35 with Russian Rezonans-NE Radar as early as 2020 (if this is true). Anyway, I’m not a specialist and I know very little about military technology but I don’t buy the hype.
Nice analysis anyway and I hope we’ll read more of your sitrep in the future!
I would recommend the YouTube video called “Why Germany Lost: The Three Alibis (WW2HRT 27-06)” at:
American military historian and author examines the major excuses as to why Germany lost to the Soviet Union. One of the alibis is that essentially HItler was making all the major and fatal mistakes. Jonathon House the presenter says this is not true. Hitler pretty much let the generals make the decisions. I believe Hitler was against fighting at Kursk but gave in to the generals who wanted it.
House explains that after the war ex-general Halder had all of generals involved in the Soviet campaign write basically histories of their experiences. Of course they were not going to expose their mistakes and screw ups. But what happened was that these narratives became the definitive histories by Western historians which was helped by the Soviets being very tight lipped about the war. One historian describes blaming Hitler as the get out of jail card whenever the Germans messed up.
BTW Halder was was very instrumental in approval of the invasion. The logistics people were asked to evaluate logistics of the invasion. They came back and told Halder that they could only supply the German army up to 500 km. For example, they cited incompatible rail road tracks. House claims the logistics people were uncanny in predicting what would happen. Halder never told Hitler about the reports. HItler was certainly not a stupid person and may have held off the invasion until the logistics could be solved.
Thats the way to do it, excellent news brief/cast with to shelf analysis.
Nothing comes close to it in the west.
looks very good
Just wanted to express a note of appreciation for a succinct, well written analysis. Also a note of thanks to the Saker crew for posting it.
A friend from India wrote:
The fate of Ukraine is with the Ukrainians. It is not with the US nor with the NATO, nor with the EU. The sooner the Ukrainians realize this, the safer their Independence. A politician turned joker showman, appearing in olive green round neck, obsessed with Western dreams and addressing offshore Parliaments begging for help, wouldn’t save Ukraine.
Only a statesman who comprehends realpolitik would save Ukraine from the human disaster, its current President has led his country to. Ukrainians must realize that their nation is no asset of the US or NATO to protect at the cost of the lives of their soldiers nor their tax money. Ukraine is today being “Afghanized” by the US on behalf of the military industrial complex that funds and controls the US politics. They can’t survive without wars in off shores. They can’t continue unless their shoulder held rockets are sold and “used”.
Ukrainians must know that their land is being used as a pawn by the sinister alliance of the military industrial political structures of the US. They are accomplishing dual goals at one shot, to weaken and tie down Russia from emerging as a counter to the US world dominance. And, to deplete the stockpiles of Stingers and Javelins piled up at the factories in the US. The real losers in this act are the Ukrainians and to a lesser extent, the ordinary hardworking American tax payers.
It’s time for the Ukrainians to make a choice. Do they want to become a European Afghanistan or Pakistan? Or to follow the path of Finland and progress to become a wonderful nation?
This twitter thread gives a comprehensive overview of the Russian action to date and explicitly frames the ‘negotiations’ that some are distressing over within that broader overview.
Sorry if it’s already been posted.
Ukraine’s entire propaganda machine is operating out of Poland. Keep this in mind before judging the Polish too harshly–odds are, it’s their flag but not them.
2 wrongs some make a right, but now that the Russians are at this spot in history and with all the nazi scum skeletons being exposed to the world, now is not the time to allow them to recoup and rearm.
This evil will never completely die out, but since the Russians have already paid the price of disconnecting from the west, anything less than complete denazification will be worrying for Russian future. That evil will resurface and attack Russia again in the future
Very good report. Thank you, NightVision.
Well done, great read with plenty of info.
“In another sudden and unexpected report, the Pentagon now wants to scrap DOZENS of F-22’s. They have suddenly decided they want to ‘divert funding’ to the next generation platform. There is clearly connection here to something the Pentagon has witnessed in Ukraine that has left it scrambling to rethink its approach to modern warfare.”
The decision to phase out the f-22 was made back before May, 2021. See:
“The U.S. Air Force aims to pare its fighter fleet to just four types — and the F-22 Raptor won’t be among them, the service’s top general said Wednesday.
Those four will be the F-35, F-15EX, F-16, and the Next Generation Air Dominance, or NGAD, fighter, Gen. CQ Brown, Air Force chief of staff, said at a McAleese and Associates virtual conference.”
The Air Force Is Planning For a Future Without the F-22 *
The ngad is probably quite a few years away from service introduction, so the f-22 will hang on a bit longer. The f-22 production closed in 2011. Official reason, too sophisticated and expensive for america’s wars against defenseless nations. Real reason imo is it was recognized as already obsolete in comparison to new Russian designs, and existing american types could more economically cover its limited role, while new aircraft are developed and put into service. With the closing of production, spare parts procurement becomes much more costly. Scrapping redundant aircraft for spare parts saves a bit of dough.
Approximately 125 of the 186 of the f-22 built are on active, or semi-active duty, 5-6 squadrons, or so, rest in reserve. Also 17 were damaged by a hurricane in floriduh. These damaged, and surplus to need, aircraft are likely the ones chosen to be cannibalised to keep the core operational requirements running.
Another handicap of the f-22 is incapability in intergrating operations with other non f-22 aircraft and military assets, and they will need major upgrades to do this.
“Furthermore, outdated electronic components and a software and communications architecture designed from the outset to only interface with other F-22s have combined to make the Raptor expensive and complex to upgrade with new weapons and connectivity with other assets such as the F-35. The F-22 is also relatively short ranged compared to other fighters in its size and weight class such as the older F-15 family, due to its extremely powerful engines and the fact that capacity for internal fuel was sacrificed for internal weapons bays to enable the fighter to carry its armament without compromising its key very low-observable (stealth) attributes.”
Retiring Undefeated? The US Air Force is Considering Replacing the F-22 Raptor *
* Quoting from these articles for specific information, I do not endorse their american spin.
Reuters: Physical gas flows through the Yamal-Europe pipeline at Germany’s Mallnow point fell to zero
12:44 AM · Mar 30, 2022
Mother has officially cut off natural gas to Yamal Europe pipeline. Factories in Germany are shutting down and Germany has invoked ‘Emergency Measures’ as gas in pipeline stopped. Germany told Russia no dice on the rubles for gaz deal. Mother told Germany that they with their illegal sanctions have broken and abrogated all gaz contracts with Russia. Mother says if you want gaz, pay in Rubles, with your sanctions we don’t need your money and can not use your money after you ‘froze’ our National Wealth accounts.
Lists of major companies shutting down at this time are readily available on ‘news’ , both east and west. EU’s gonna be cold this fall and Power of Siberia 2 is up and running for Katai, that Katai who always pays and always wants more gaz.
If true (and I’ve heard something similar before) this post on a pro-Russian Telegram channel,is extremely productive. It also is at odds with the things we are hearing about the negotiations in Turkey. Let’s all hope this is true. It begins to show what Russia needs to be doing to ensure peace,denazifcation,and the bringing of these regions back into the Russian world:
In the territories liberated from the Ukrainian Nazi regime, internal affairs bodies are being formed. Their goal is to protect civilians from illegal encroachments.
Police departments and departments have been established in Melitopol and Energodar.
Militia bodies will soon be created throughout the Zaporozhye region, including the regional center.
Honest policemen and policemen are invited to serve. Including pensioners and retirees. Those who come to the service are guaranteed the preservation of seniority and rank. Young people will have the opportunity to study at specialized higher educational institutions of the Russian Federation.
Have a permanent link in some corner, to an alphabetical list of military and political abbreviations, explaining their meaning.