Note: I don’t normally do reposts, but things are becoming so crazy that I asked Andrei if I could repost his short article and he kindly agreed. So here it is.
Some Fast Thoughts On IL-20.
by Andrei Martyanov (original here)
And so it starts. Russia must attack Israel, no—she must obliterate it, Putin is “soft”, the world is coming to an end, Zionists are in control of Kremlin, Russia turns another cheek. And on, and on, and on. The chorus of noble warriors with the evils of Zionism is getting louder with each day. Behind this hysteria surrounding the tragedy of Russian VKS’ IL-20 somehow crucial and widely publicized news have been ignored completely. It is no surprise they were ignored by all kinds of “specialists” in strategy, politics, and armchair strategists (I am one myself). The news are pretty simple. Lt. General Alexander Ionov, former Deputy Chief of Main Staff of Russian Air Force from 1991 through 2001, stated to popular Russian media Zvezda that it is guaranteed that Syrian Air Defense forces were not provided with compatible IFF equipment and codes.
For those who don’t know what IFF (Interrogator Friend-Foe) is—it is electronic system which provides both a defense against friendly fire and easy radar identification of friendly forces. On older radar friendly forces would usually be marked with arches (below or above) radar marks of the targets and that is how one knows how not to shoot at them. The IFF technology is extremely sensitive as are the “codes” on which it runs. It wasn’t provided, and for a good reason, to Syrian Forces. So, the question, in this case which will be asked by laymen is: but what about “full integration” of Russian and Syrian Air Defenses. It is a legitimate question. Without going into much detail how a key aspect of this integration is provided—in Western parlance it is called CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability)—there are reasons to assume that in case of older S-200s the targeting data could have been provided by radio-voice commands. But here comes this most important fact—Syrian S-200 and its radar did have a track and, possibly, a lock on the Israeli F-16s. The certainty of this fact, as in old proverb about the proof being in the pudding, is in all advanced aircraft being equipped with Emission Detectors which are a warning system and Israeli aircraft using available “screen” in a form of Russian IL-20 on its approach to Khmeimim Air Base.
In other words, Israeli aircraft were forced to seek a cover and one can only imagine how warnings were screaming in their cockpits. They saw IL-20 with its huge Radar Cross Section (RCS). For those with a short attention span it is worth reminding them that Syrian Air Defense does have a track record of shooting down or damaging IAF’s aircraft. In fact, apart from actually admitting their losses, IAF is still mum on the fate of “damaged by birds” F-35. In other words, Syrian AD does track and locks on Israeli combat aircraft. S-200 missiles are what is known SARH—Semi-Active Radar Homing, meaning that missile needs the illumination of the target by the air defense complex radar and that is where the professionalism, especially at the significant engagement ranges (tens and even hundreds of kilometers), becomes absolutely crucial. But so does a protocol, or ROE (Rules of Engagement), for people in control of any particular AD complex which is not “inside” the loop of highly sensitive IFF. At this stage, I do have reasons to believe that under a huge pressure of the situation unfolding in what used to be a calm sector of approaches to Khmeimim Air Base, which was agreed between Israel and Russia, and where IAF’s aircraft were not supposed to be, the Syrian crew simply went for the target which was clearly visible and shaded smaller RCS Israeli planes.
Israel violated in this case not just an ethical norm by hiding behind IL-20, it violated much more—it flew it planes into the area which was specifically designated as “out of reach” for IAF. As former Israel’s Service Nativ’ Yakov Kedmi stated after the events, all this tragedy became a result of Israeli recklessness and unprofessionalism, he called this mistake by Israeli generals a doom-spelling one. Reaction of Israel following the events is telling—she went into the full damage control mode with Netanyahu urgently calling Vladimir Putin. He offered the Commander of Israeli Air Force to be immediately on his way to Moscow, all diplomatic, informational, government channels between Israel and Russia got immediately engaged. This was a very telling sign of a real panic and confusion on the Israeli side which also immediately offered condolences. This is not an act of war, as many would love it to be, some out of often justified hatred of Israel hoping for Russia to dispose of this “evil”, others purely out of adrenalin rush in anticipation of TV picture of people killing each other.
But the issue of interaction between Russia and Syrian forces is real and it is not easily addressed for a number of purely military and cultural reasons. But some conclusions can already be made:
- There will be no “annihilation” of Israel, nor will there be any shooting war between Russia and Jewish State as many would love and lust it to be;
- There will, however, be some form of no-fly zone and as Vladimir Putin stated Russia will take “the steps that everyone will notice.” Obviously this important statement by the head of Russian State got drowned in the ocean of rage and speculations, and confusion I may add, but this has become a familiar pattern by now.
- Issue of ROE and interaction—the most important one. Specialists must review protocols and tactical procedures. Engagement caveats must be strictly enforced.
- Training of Syrian personnel and, obvious now, necessity, once advanced S-300s (PMU) are additionally delivered to Syria, to have Russian advisers full time in any Syrian Air Defense crew dealing with much more advanced technology than old S-200s.
In the end, this tragedy, should serve as a real serious lesson and, in a military sense a warning that one better stick to the agreements or things may spiral out of control very fast. Israel decided that it is allowed to break agreements. Israel should ask Turkey what happens when one does Russia wrong—Turkish Air Force knows it too well after shooting down Russian SU-24. It got grounded. Now Turkey is a situational ally of Iran and Russia in the region. As per larger geopolitical sense—just wait and see. But I made myself explicit on that matter not for once. I might as well repeat myself—dogs bark, but caravan passes on.
UPDATE(S): Superb updates from actual Russian very real officers (Google, Google Translate, dive, dive) through famous military observer Viktor Barantez (former senior officer) in response to Viktor Alxnis emotional piece in Vzglyad. Response of serving (active) senior officer of Main Staff of VKS, Colonel Sergei Paramonov in an interview:
A superb professional response to all those trolls and internet “experts” who, as was expected, are already painting new “rich” picture of massive Israeli-French-Russia military-geopolitical conspiracy. We ain’t seen nothing yet from them. But Paramonov literally sinks all arguments in favor of all kinds of conspiracy theories.
Moreover, Lieutenant-Colonel Victor Haustov, Deputy Commander of the Air Defense Regiment fresh from Syria gives explanation on tactics and technical means involved.
Why IFF Didn’t Prevent The Tragedy of IL-20 In Syria.
Victor Baranetz and Komsomolka (Komsomolskaya Pravda) deserve only the highest praise for them for releasing these interviews with real professionals and solid reviews (within allowed for open press framework) of the whole situation. I will translate only one phrase from Haustov’s interview:
К тому же, не забывайте, что С-200 – оружие старенькое. А подготовка сирийских спецов ПВО, мягко говоря, часто оставляет желать много лучшего…
Translation: Moreover, do not forget that S-200 is an old weapon, while training of Syrian Air Defense specialists leaves a lot to be desired. UPDATE: Russian Ministry of Defense today put to rest all those speculations and confirmed what Ionov stated from the get go, hours after IL-20 was shot down. As Konashenkov stated:
There was NO any IFF involved, because Russia DOES NOT supply it to foreign customers (in Russian). I can hear already desperate moans and screams of utter suffering from the vast armies of couch warriors and conspiracy theorists, because once IFF issue is removed, the picture becomes very clear. As I stated in first couple of hours of this tragedy:
INTERMITTENT SUMMARY: So it is clear mow that IAF used the oldest trick in the book by shielding her aircraft by IL-20 which was descending for landing–so very Israeli–and then, of course, lied that it warned Russian side. Yes…one minute prior. I will return to Israel later, for now it is known that Bibi wants to speak with Putin and that Israel is engaged with Russia across a whole spectrum of diplomatic, military, what have you, activity trying to prevent what might be coming. Let investigation now proceed with normal pace and decision be made on facts, not some fancy technophiles’ incompetent theories.
The author wrote: “all this tragedy became a result of Israeli recklessness and unprofessionalism” Translation: This happened because Israel knows it can act with impunity any time.
Teh author wrote: “Reaction of Israel following the events is telling—she went into the full damage control mode with Netanyahu urgently calling Vladimir Putin. This was a very telling sign of a real panic and confusion on the Israeli side which also immediately offered condolences”
Translation: Israels Netanyaho playing some theater possibly even crying! for the dead Russians but thinking: when things calm down we will start bombing and killing some more again.
SAKER: Important news, Ukraine today approved proposal to amend constiuion an join the NATO.
This is off-topic – please place the comment under a relevant post – there are several here about Ukraine or the MFC. Mod.
Apparently Nato is building a navy base in Odessa and there is already a physical Nato office in Ukraine.
There should be Condors on their way to Cuba, delivering S-400’s right now. Why is Russia not donating S-400’s to Cuba ? This is what it must do to get the US to the negotiating table.
I think it probable that the next big AZ-Empire provocation against Russia will be the granting of Ukrainian/Georgian membership of NATO. How it will play out is anybody’s guess. The stakes get higher; the collision is on the cards, and sooner or later a fateful decision must be made. At the present time the initiative is with NATO. Russia can only be backed so far into the corner before reacting. NATO can walk away, Russia cannot since she will have exhausted all the avenues available. The long retreat from Berlin to Russia’s western frontiers will have to be stopped sooner or later. All of Putin’s/Lavrov’s diplomatic guile will not be enough to stop this from happening; this does not mean that the AZ is going to win, but it does mean that it will have to be faced down. A critical scenario? Absolutely. The only alternative being surrender.
I’d have kept Bibi waiting on hold, while playing the old funeral music the Soviets used to play when a leader had died.
I am seeing a lot of damage control to the fact that the israelis deliberately set up the the IL20 to vet in the line of fire.
My suspiscion is that the entire mission of the F-16s was planned in advanced. In other words, a fly on the wall of the mission briefing for the Israeli pilots would have heard that they expected the IL-20 to be in that position at that time, and that the attack was always planned to duck behind it after firing the missiles.
1) Israel was venturing into a different area of Syria for this attack. They’d tried to attack Damascus several times. They had bombed southern Syria. But this was their first attack into the Latakia/Idlib zone.
2) Such electronic warfare and detection planes are often on a continous patrol. Such planes help detect and respond to enemy attacks. As such, a commander would want them aloft and available as part of a defense against sneak attack. Often there are a few of these planes at a base, and they rotate shifts in the air to provide continous coverage.
I think someone got a little sloppy and kept flying these planes on a predictable schedule. In that case, the schedule is of course observable to Israeli radar.
Thus, I think all along the plan for this attack was to come in, launch the missiles, then turn behind the IL-20 that the Israelis knew would be returning from patrol at that time. The Russian data after the attack would have some tell-tell clues as to whether this occured. Did the planes launch from Israel after the IL-20 reached a certain position that indicated it was coming home at the end of the shift? Did the Israeli planes linger over Israel waiting for that sign? I’d be looking for little bits of data such as that.
Its also possible that the Israelis might have detected a hole in the Russian coverage during these shift changes. If they did not have the replacement shift already aloft and on station, then perhaps the Israelis thought they could time the attack for the shift change. But that would only be a extra bonus. I do guess that the Israelis intended to use this Russian plane and crew as a human shield as a part of this attack plan.
I followed a link from the Non-MSM-Newswire portion of this site to a VeteransToday article on the attack. I start chuckling because at the top I’m reading what Mr.Martyanov debunks about IFFs. I looked back up above the quote to see who or what was being quoted. The story about the Syrians having IFF codes for the Russian plane was being quoted from an Israeli website.
In other words, damage control.
Its a little hard to imagine that an Isreali newspaper has first hand knowledge of how the Russian and Syrian equipment works together with IFF codes. Thereby, you know that this story is one of two things. It was either fed to them by the Israeli military. Or it was just made up to sound good (which happens with western news media more than they admit). Either way, its blantant damage control.
Well, it seems to that “leaks” from an “unnamed source” are quite common in Israel (Haretz) just as in USofA (WaPo or NYT).
I tend to agree with Paul Craig Robert’s summation:
” We are watching unfold my concern that the acceptance of provocations results in more provocations and that the provocations escalate in their danger. What will Putin do now? If he backs down again, he can expect a yet more dangerous provocation until the only choice becomes surrender or nuclear war. ”
” Washington’s provocations would not have reached the current level of intensity if Putin had put his foot down several provocations ago. Indeed, the entire Syrian crisis would have been over except for the repeated hesitations and premature withdrawals of Russian forces.”
Backing down on this latest provocation will only result on NATO (read USA), pulling that noose ever tighter…..
Dr.Paul Craig Roberts is an excellent analyst. However, as I have written before, he is excellent when it comes to Washington’s and NATO’s policies towards Russia, but is prone to exaggeration and underestimation when it comes to Russia’s policies. Yes, we indeed had a joint NATO-Israeli provocation against Russia, where the intent was to provoke Putin to respond against Israel. However, Putin is a professional. He does not fall for provocations. However, he did respond in a subtle way, by beefing up Russian and Syrian AA systems.
I’m not a hot-head, far from it. But when you lose 15 servicemen by means of a dastardly unhanded attack like this, I think some form of response is required – and I don’t mean banning Israeli tomato imports.
I cannot see why a no fly zone can’t at least be implemented around the Russian bases in the north. This can be extended gradually to cover Syria as the AA systems are integrated and beefed up.
AND immediately give the Syrians S300 systems – there is not one good reason I can think why not.
As far as your comments re PCR, I agree to some extent BUT – he does know Washington and the nature of the loonies that are running the show there so I think we shouldn’t be dismissive of his viewpoint. Besides, he is describing the continued actions of a bully – I believe we have all met these kinds of people who are only encouraged to further provocation by timidity – it’s human psychology.
He accurately describes the actions of the bullies in Washington.
He inaccurately assumes that the only response is that of a bullied 10-year old on a playground.
Excellent comment Hawthorne – succinct and to the point
I suspect that Dr. Roberts has been dealing with the Beltway Crazies for too many years. He can only see them and their reactions.
He know a lot, certainly, and any time he wants to tell me why I should buy Gold I’ll listen.
But he doesn’t’ understand the Russian mind or ways one iota – and this is leading his analysis astray.
Have you ever been bullied Hawthorne? believe me the best solution is to give them a swift punch in the mouth. I’m actually not suggesting any such thing – but I am suggesting that a strong response now will save grief (and lives) later on.
That response should at a minimum be to supply the Syrians with S300s, AND to implement a no-fly zone in the area of the Russian bases AND be prepared to enforce it.
Given what’s happened, I don’t think this is over the top.
Hawthorne, You seem to think rather naively that only 10 year olds get bullied. Nothing could be further from the truth. In any case PCR is describing the actions of known nutjobs like Bolton, Pompeo, that crazed bitch Nikki Haley and the torturess in charge of the CIA.
These are only the obvious ones – there are dozens of similar nutjobs in the numerous “think tanks” and lobbyists in the beltway constantly reinforcing the same theme – Russia must be destroyed.
Perhaps he doesn’t understand the Russian mindset, Isabella, but he sure understands the mindset in DC. A collection of Hollywood inspired John Wayne freaks.
AND – PCR has never suggested Russia go to war. He only urges president Putin and the Russian government to take an unambiguously strong approach to the Washington crazies. Then just maybe they’ll eventually back down.
By this point, I treat PCR as disinformation when he writes about Russia. He has consistently mis-read and mis-understood what the Russians have been trying to do. In general he joins what I consider to be a internet disinformation campaign that says that Russia must act like a character in an American ganster movie and not show any weakness. He’s been stuck on playing that one note for over a year, which sticks out from his other writings.
As a rich, retired former American official, PCR would be vulnerable to pressure. If for instance the US deep state threatened to freeze his bank accounts and retirement monies, he’d be hurting. As a former Treasury official and Wall Street Journal editor, PCR has lived very high on the hog for decades. No one leaves those posts without a large portfolio of investments. The thought of losing that money and having to rent an apartment and shop at Walmart and live off SS the rest of his life would horrify him. He would have no idea how to cope, as he’s been used to living in the upper few percent of Americans for a very, very long time.
“By this point, I treat PCR as disinformation when he writes about Russia. He has consistently mis-read and mis-understood what the Russians have been trying to do. In general he joins what I consider to be a internet disinformation campaign that says that Russia must act like a character in an American ganster movie and not show any weakness. He’s been stuck on playing that one note for over a year, which sticks out from his other writings.”
He was an enthusiastic part of the 2nd most anti-Russia regime in the usa since the 1950s (first is trump), and continues to put that regime on a pedestal. The zpc/nwo war against Russia never ended, pcr has his role…
Yep. when Ronny RayGun was ranting about The Evil Empire, PCR was two ranks beneath him as Asst. Sec of Treasury.
There is a slant on opnion here. I do not see PCR as constantly misreading the Russian response. He is suggesting ways that Russia should respond to end the aggressions of the west.
As I see it Russia is playing for a stalemate in Syria with as many of the involved parties having a stake in keeping it that way thus avoiding conflict. Russia can beef up its defenses all it wants but if it has shown it will never use them then whats the point? As PCR constantly points out Russia will keep getting poked until it has to respond militarily in some way. Playing the long game may be smart to a certain extent and I have children I would like to grow up happy and healthy in this shitty world so I appreciate yet another day without WW3 but good politicking and backroom deals should only be a part of the package.
15 dead today and what of tomorrow? Putin was hit hard politically with the pension fallout and 15 needless dead hurt more. Im sure Putin looks at his poll numbers as well as any western leader. He can be “smart” if hes secure as the guy in charge but what if his political alternatives start to look appealing. Might he be pressured to act desperately? Military people dont look at the longterm geopolitical moves Putin is making and applaud when they’ve just lost 15 comrades and neither do their families.
I understand how Putins strategy is viewed favourably by this author and the Saker etc. It has been astoundly successful in many ways thus far but I agree with PCR that the stakes in constantly turning the other cheek will only get raised in time and thats more dangerous than a true but measured show of force early in the fight.
I do not think, that Russia is playing for stalemate, but the alternative would be what PCR is suggesting: An all out war. While, Russia does not want it. Russia has had a lot of rebuilding since 1905. Russia will try to avoid it until directly attacked.
But they are being attacked. Maybe not directly on their soil but by any definition of a war declaration it has come to pass whether it be Ukraine or constant sanctions or near universal contempt for international law and media domonising. Russia can wait and play the long game if it wants but eventually it must deal with an opponent(s) that upends the chessboard even if it’s been checkmated and points a loaded gun at Russia’s head and says fuck the rules cause we don’t have to play by any.
As I see it Russia’s only alternative is to become the new Soviet Union which is what the US wants cause if they don’t then it will be forced upon them. If the MAD theory can be played against Russia then it can be played against the west but the longer the slow boiling frog sits in the pot the harder it will be to wake populations to the danger of WW3.
Russia can stall all it wants and win perceptually but all it is buying is time. If Turkey were to leave Nato, Ukraine to normalize and become another Russian ally, Iraq and Pakistan and Egypt to fly a Russian friendship banner or otherwise what if all that could come to pass positively for Russia diplomatically in the region would it really matter?
Haul out the big guns and treat Syria like the ally they need to be treated and quit being a pussy or get papercutted into a situation they can’t control!
To all, again a reference from Sun Tzu.
Know your enemy, and know yourself. Both have to be known, for the pursuit of survival, and indeed victory.
PCR’s analysis is always very clear to me; he is desperately concerned that Russia does not know that it has an enemy in the US as it is run today, and indeed the nature of that enemy. The US does not seek a Russian partner, but the obliteration of Russia’s political independence. PCR is well qualified to describe the treacherous nature of Washington.
PCR’s concerns are absolutely legitimate, and spot on. It could be that Putin and Lavrov know this well, but here we are all speculating. If they know, great, but PCR’s main concern is that they display little or no signs of being aware, that can give us comfort. I am of the view that PCR is constantly, almost wilfully being misunderstood on this point, and misrepresented that his advice will lead to WW3.
Maybe Putin is too smart to show his cards, and we all desperately hope that this is the explanation. But our collective need for Putin and Russia to avoid betrayal, is the root of all the controversy and emotion. It’s natural. It’s because we care.
I recall similar discussions after previous bombing raids, reread for instance
If Russia is unwilling to stop Israel’s attacks on Syria itself, it should at least provide the Syrian air defense with the means to halt it themselves. Legally, Syria and Israel are still at war over the Golan heights. However, it is disgusting that Israel is granted a free pass to bomb in Syria wherever it pleases.
and america has gone on the offensive in Syria, taking the land back.
the reports I have seen..2 of them… Deir Ezzor has been retaken by the americans, french and ISIS
Really, care to share links and from what sources?
Since this would be important, I started checking.
Southfront.org does not have this story.
Al-Masdar News, a generally pro-gov Syrian side does have this story, kinda.
ISIS has launched an attack
It is in Deir Ezzor. However, Deir Ezzor is the name of both a city and a province. It is in Deir Ezzor province. It involves a town named “Baghouz Fouqani in southeastern countryside of Deir Ezzor”
According to this pro-Syrian government news site, the battle is SDF + US + French attacking an ISIS controlled town. The attack, with the support of US attack helicopters broke ISIS lines and captured the town, but then ISIS counter-attacked and retook the town.
No mention of any Syrian or Syrian government allied forces being involved. And it does not involve the actual city of Deir Ezzor, which Syria held against a long ISIS seige before that siege was broken earlier this year.
Why should engagement rules even exist permitting Israel to attack Syrian forces? Why should a timely notification be at issue? Exactly what is the agreement between Russia and Israel that permits Israel to attack Syria at all?
Some nations, like the USA, declare “Air Defense ID Zones” (ADIZ) that extends far beyond the national borders and out into international waters. Syria should consider that.
Or, just make a blanket declaration that since Israel is now bragging about having bombed Syria (illegally) over 200 times in the last 2 years, that Israeli military aircraft are now considered hostile, whether they are over international waters or Lebanon or otherwise. Lebanon does not officially give permission to Israel to fly there. In the interests of peace, I’d consider saying that Syria won’t target and shoot down Israeli military aircraft that are over Israel. But I’d warn that this could change when Israel next bombs Syria from a position over Israel, like I believe they have already done in the past. But I would make clear that Isreali military aircraft over international waters or Lebanon are considered to be hostile and will be targeted and fired upon. After 200 bombings, I don’t see a need to wait for them to fire yet again.
I dare say that I fail to understand this also
What were the French missiles, and where did they go? The Russians probably know. And, how does that figure into what happened?
That is still shrouded in some mystery. There is an interesting analysis by Tom Luongo, who supports the idea that the IL20 was actually shot down by the French, and that the Russians didn’t take the bait.
I have a few doubts however, that the French would have the nerve to shoot down an Russian military plane. But I have been surprised more often (like a NATO F16 threatening a civilian plane with MoD Shoigu on board).
If the French were not targeting the IL20, then what? Also the Israeli target in Latakia, of which was claimed it was ammunition for Hezbollah, is strange. Shouldn’t the damage be much larger?
Good these exercises. It contains also a closure of the East Mediterranean for foreign navy and air traffic (that will not be that easy, if not hardly possible), but at least an extra hindrance for Israeli/NATO forces. I doubt it that they will comply (‘We fly where we want’ is probably their answer).
What confusion are you talking about?
They blamed it immediately on syria iran and hezbollah!
And a good 15 hours after that they started publishing articles, read rumors out of thin air, that russia detained arrested kidnapped all the syrian division present for the bombing.
They have also released disnfo the Putin rejected calls from Assad over the shootdown by the Syrian SAM.
Two fundamental rules of Zionism: i) Israel never takes responsibility and ii) Israel is always the victim.
The best answer to this provocation is simply to win the war in Syria and kick out the US invaders and US/Israeli proxies. Then build up Syria (and South Lebanon) to become impervious to any Zionist attack.
Make the apartheid state into a defacto reservation for Zionist crazies, much like a part of Idlib is about to become a reservation for crazy Jihadis, and bury the Zionist ideas of Greater Israel once and for all.
It is of course this scenario that drives the Zionists up the wall and why they try to come up with “provocations” to derail the Russian campaign to preserve Syrian sovereignty and viability as a state.
That was always the good attitude for playing team sports.
Don’t do something stupid that gets you a red card. Just win the match, then smile and point to the scoreboard everytime they try to provoke you.
Coach Lombardi used to say about football “winning is everything!” And that was only about a silly game.
Thank you Mr Martyanov for some sanity in the sea of constant speculation. Thank you also for the updates from real Russian officers and reconfirming what we know from Major General Igor Konashenkov – it was Israel who caused this tragedy by their recklessness and lies.
Recklessness? Hmmmmm. See to me that reads like a euphemism. If you set something up as a decoy for incoming missiles and that something contains over a dozen human beings, well you’re beyond recklessness. That’s wicked intent and no mistake.
The unasked question is why the Russians permitted the Syrians to shoot at Israeli planes from an air defense system that was integrated with the Russian air defense system?
If the system is integrated then the Russians would be equally responsible for downing Israeli planes. So, why limit defense against Israeli planes to only Syrian owned systems like S-200 and other systems.
It completely sum the Russian side of it.
But, where is the link to the Syrians admitting it?
Your link does not contain an admission of Syrian responsibility. It contains only an expression of condolences by Bashar Assad.
There is no evidence a Syrian S200 shot down the Russian IL20. There is no evidence Israel is in any way responsible for what transpired. All Syrian S200’s are fully integrated with Russian systems. If a Syrian S200 fired the kill shot then essentially the Russians shot down their own aircraft. Syrians cannot fire without Russian approval. Period. If a Russian controlled and integrated A/D system fired in the direction of a Russian IL20 then the level of incompetence of the operators boggles the mind.
No such thing occurred.
France almost certainly shot down the IL20 but Russia cannot address it directly or else they must respond and go to war with NATO. In the meantime Putin appears to have taken the first steps towards recognition of Turkish seizure of Syrian land, something far more troubling and somewhat conveniently ignored thanks to the IL20 incident. If Putin believes the Muslim Brotherhood’s #1 backer Tayip Erdogan is his ally then he is sorely mistaken — but I doubt the Russians are so misguided.
Russia is alone and will remain so until it rattles the NATO cage.
Russia is alone and so must demonstrate it will stand with it’s allies when push comes to shove.
I accept that blaming Israel is the easiest way to deal with this crisis but at some point a response must be made. NATO has been fucking with the Russians since before the Kursk was sunk by a NATO torpedo. The downing of the IL20 represents the umpteenth time a major Russian asset has been destroyed without consequence. Recall the recent downing of an Antonov carrying many of Russia’s best fighter pilots over Khmeimim Air Base — by a missile fired from NATO controlled territory and all as the chief of Russian forces looked on.
The lack of a Russian response to that incident has led directly to the downing of the IL20. Something must be done or Russia will soon be faced with attempting to explain how the sinking of the Kuznetzov was also an ‘accident.’
The problem for Russia is Yeltsinites remain in control of the Russian government and they are far more concerned about their bank accounts and real estate assets located in the UK, France, Switzerland, etc. then they are about those courageous souls dying for the honour of their country.
A very good article indeed. However, it did not fully answer the question of the role of that French frigate. The frigate fired missiles. It is still unknown what kind of missiles it fired, whether AA or cruise missiles. If it fired AA missiles, what was the target ? The Russian reconnaissance plane ? If it fired cruise missiles, what were the targets in Syria ? Did they hit any ? Why did the frigate launch missiles when Israeli planes were preparing to attack, or had already attacked ? We obviously here have coordination.
There is no question that the attack against the Russian reconnaissance plane was a joint NATO-Israeli provocation, where the aim was to provoke Russia to attack Israel, so that the neocons in the US would demand the “protection” of Israel and start a wider regional war, now that Putin and Erdogan made a deal on Idlib. Also, Russia exposed the planning of that US false flag against Assad, where chemical weapons were again to be “used”, and this made a US attack against Syria pointless.
Putin in the past few days has been accused of being “soft” and not responding. On the contrary, he has proven yet again of being a statesman of the highest caliber, who does not fall for provocations, but responds in a highly professional manner. Now Russian and Syrian AA systems are being beefed up with additional missile systems. Russia is responding in a “soft”, professional manner, while NATO countries are the ones exposing themselves with reckless action. And who wins the prestige ? And who becomes the adult in the room after that ?
Mr Martyanov has given his factual analysis about the IL-20 – speculating about “others” isn’t going to change the facts. Please could everyone stay on topic here and focus on Mr Martyanov’s analysis not speculations. Also remember Syria was being hit that night targeting their technical industries and ammunition depots – this may answer your questions. Mod
Look, I can tell you this categorically, that when you hear people all over the damn world screaming for Russia to take a tough line on Israel, it is, for the most part, not borne out of naivety, nor is it a sign of primal “anti-semitism” – you know, that over-used term that is relenlessly brandished to tar and feather legitimate critics of Israel?
What it is, is the collective frustration felt by decent people all over who are sick and tired of seeing evil excused and at times rewarded.
If Russia with all its might and hypersonic weapons will not confront this demented bully, then who will?
Israel is a murderous, manipulative and malignant entity that has shown time and time again, that it has no respect for human dignity and international law.
This is the entity that guns down Palestinian kids on a daily basis.
Demolishes their homes and schools, kills and maims their journalists, sports men and women, destroys the boats of its fishermen, and assassinates its leaders.
Listen, I could go on, and on, listing and logging the countless crimes and criminality of Israel, but time and space will not allow.
Suffice it to say, that Israel, more that any other country or entity, is responsiblity for the situation in Syria today.
No other country has so openly backed the terrorists that have plunged Syria into death and darkness, like Israel, both in words and deeds.
Just days ago its leaders bragged that Syria has been bombed over 200 times by Israel since this this conflict was imposed on Syria.
The incident occured because of Israeli arrogance and hubris.
Russia set out its red lines and Israel defied them.
I just read a story in Haaretz, it basically said, Netanyahu sent a Naval guy over to Russia, simply to help “Russia save face”, and that everyone knows that Israel will continue doing what it has been doing in Syria, and there is pretty much, nothing that Russia can do about it.
This was no accident. Just like
50 years ago the USS Liberty was no accident.
Whether Russia wants to accept it or not, the world is looking to Russia for leadership, because there is pretty much nowhere else to look.
No one want Russia to rush into war.
War is the last thing anyone wants.
But we expect it to not absolve the guilty.
And we do not expect it to offer excuses for those stained with the blood of the innocent.
More likely the Haaretz published that so as to keep deceiving the Israelis. Bombing Syria has no strategic value for Israel. The US saturated the Ho Chi Minh trail with bombs, napalm and agent orange, but could not stop the flow of Vietcong and weapons to the South. Israel keeps bombing because it has to appear to it’s own populace that it is successful in fighting Iran, but the truth is that she prowdly gambled much of its safety when it entered in the war against Syria. Should have stayed neutral.
Well said–your statement is my truth. I was at work when I first read the news; and yes, I was furious with VV Putin for the “tragic mistake” comment, which I think was an error on his part. I know as head of state he was trying to de-escalate this situation, but it comes across like a dismissal of those brave men/women lives.
It was way too early to determine if it was a tragic mistake or not, and given the earlier MOD statements it made him look like a liar and/or a tool. (I am talking about perception not reality) . He could have easily said that the facts will be examine and actions will then be taken to strengthen the protection of our people, which is the first priority.
We would still be angry–but, not at him.
After Motorola, Givi . Zaha.., Alexsey etc.–these latest 15 souls was almost too much for me. I was walking home from the subway in NYC at the end of the day, and I was thinking of the love ones left behind. Kids growing up without fathers or mothers, wives without husbands, parents losing their sons and daughters, and I had to force myself not to scream out in pain and frustration. I felt the same way when Motorola died ==like someone grab your insides in a fist and squeeze==except this was 15 times worst.
There is a picture of VVP at my desk at work. It as been there since 2013. I was tempted to remove it on Monday, but it is still in its place.
I do not believe the Russians want war, and most people like myself do not want war.
But sometimes you have to act ,and act decisively.
You do not have to kill your opponent, or even have a big blow-up fight. (Removed language,MOD)
Well said. You have just described how most of us ‘trolls’ and ‘armchair warriors feel’.
I have a sinking feeling that the world’s “top leaders” have all bowed down to the great evil , and committed great evil against their own people, and that there are not any good guys left out there.
Martyinov has brought forth all the facts, all the explanations, all the professional answers.
Yet we have some folks who persistent in sophomoric (PCR quotes included) blather.
Read him again, follow the links, read the translated links (get Yandex to help you).
Absorb the facts.
Particularly, pay apt attention to the Yakov Kedmi’s remark: doom-spelling mistake. Understand that the IDF screwed itself for decades ahead. The little meeting today in Moscow will do nothing to smooth over the loss of 15 men and the plane. Honor among military means everything and Israel pissed their’s away in an arrogance that is historic.
Bibi could have done less damage if in May he stood at the Parade and pissed on the passing troops.
Two days ago he killed 15 men and destroyed a plane in an epic demonstration of hubris.
Russians will never forget. No need for them to yell and scream. This was murder not war. Unforgivable homicide.
Much thanks to Andrei M. and Saker for this article.
Some responses I think that are appropriate:
1) Establish “landing zones” extending south into Lebanon, thus enforce safety of Russian aircraft. Perhaps a new Russian airbase near Damascus.
2) Help Lebanon and Hizbollah defend against invasion. Never let Israel near the Litani River.
3) Over time, help Syria regain the Golan heights.
4) Proceed with program to restore Syria’s territorial sovereignty.
And one I would hope for but will never see.
5) Deliver sniper rifles to Palestinians.
How about this (partly borrowed from another poster) for a thought(s).
I’ve often seen people laud Putin (Russia) for seemingly wanting to save the World from WWII and upholding/promoting human rights. As a snub (punch in the nose, more like) to Israel, Russia should announce a multi-national humanitarian mission to Gaza, maybe/hopefully with China, Iran and any other long-suffering nations interested in human rights and international law such as Venezuela and Cuba. With full military escort and strong warnings not to interfere, unload as much supplies as is needed to help Palestine get on its feet. Included in this (also as a show of Russian technology) park one of their mobile small nuclear power plants offshore to satisfy the current dire need for electricity in the strip. This could likely be accomplished for less than the amount which these same countries currently funnel through the UN organizations which are supposed to “help” Palestine.
Besides helping a nation in the process of being criminally eliminated, it would finally highlight, in no uncertain terms and for the whole World to see, the injustice being perpetrated there. It would also highlight Russia’s will to see justice done. There are not many who would (or could, morally) protest this. As an added bonus (in regards the nuke power plant) what could Israel/US do about it…bomb a nuclear bomb right on their border?
Yes, agreed. Many thanks for a sober framing of the complex and touchy situation.
However, to apply a well know strategic “rope a dope” metaphor to this long historic battle on the plains of Syria, one is not Muhammad Ali (in his prime) unless George Forman is knocked out in the last 15 seconds of round 8.
Indeed there is a wave of the usual reactionary response from the coleseum crowd baying for blood. However, there is also a strong sense that these murderous organ-eating games have gone long enough and a greater evil grows in the apparent “doing of nothing” by the emerging Russian Federation in respect to the responsibility it has (e.g, by way of treaty with Syria) to challenge the criminal cabals masquerading as governments in European, American and Israeli domains.
This ain’t Manila, nor is it a historic “rumble in the jungle” without a round 8 knockout. When that is due cannot be predicted, but the (wisdom of the?) crowd grows weary for the end of a rope-hugging strategy that could just as easily end with Forman winning a long and tiring fight by points.
We all have the right to our opinion. Simply because they may be contrary to yours does not mean our comments are “blather”.
I quoted PCR because he knows the swamp in Washington and the nature of its denizens. He is right – continued acceptance by Russia will only bring ever greater provocation – and THIS is exactly what is happening. I am genuinely afraid that eventually we will have a very big war.
You see, I have this problem. I do not want to be eviscerated in a nuclear war that could possibly be prevented by a strong response now.
Andrie M and the Saker are all for a mild response and I respect their opinion but that will NOT deter Israel from further stand off attacks on Syrian territory, especially since the USA/NATO will support Israel come hell or high water. If there is one lesson that should be learnt from WW2, it’s that appeasement does not work, especially when you are trying to appease nutjobs.
There can be no doubt that the recent attacks were a coordinated NATO Israeli action, so I just do not see Israel pissing its pants over this as you suggest.
PCR does not know squat about military responses, mild or strong. He knows zero about Russia. He knows nothing of relevance about the IDF.
He may know something about US Shadow Government, but no much that matters in this instance, ME affairs or waging a war against terrorists while protecting your nation (Russia) from destruction.
And quoting a know nothing as an expert is more than blather.
But I’ll resist the impulse.
Post what you want. Saker permits it.
If you know me, you know I’ve been exceeding gentle today.
what PCR knows is this: that Russia from a superior position has lost in Syria, is now overwhelmed and would have to escalate drastically to recover the Russian position..the very thing he did not want to according to most commentators here
“If you know me”
I think Putin made the wrong call in referring to the incident as an accident — so shoot me? Removed no attacking other commenters. Please close down this conversation. Mod
Point of information — I am basing my opinion on a early RT translation of Putin’s statement.
There is a Moses (eye for an eye) type opinion/ response, and there is a Jesus (turn the other cheek) type opinion/ response.
Russia uses the Jesus type response, keeping the Moses type response in reserve. This is apparent. What is hidden, is not in the public sphere.
Seems to me, this response has more options and wriggle room, while maintaining Russia’s objectives going forward. Giving an opinion while not having all the facts is foolish. And we will never ever have all the facts.
Personally, I find Russia’s response fascinating. So surprising, so much to learn.
As to WW3, Putin and the Russians have succeeded in putting it off so far. But this War is an apocalyptic event, Torahide, Biblical and Koranic, which is in God’s hand, not ours.
In the meantime, just improve our life, those around us, and if possible, prepare for the inevitable.
Not sure our opinion matters when that time comes. Not even a choice between being barbecued or slow death.
“Two days ago he killed 15 men and destroyed a plane in an epic demonstration of hubris.”
Methinks everyone is aware of this fact. It is the selling of the incident as a “tragic accident” that will not stick — that is what I call blather. They were murdered. That’s it.
You don’t represent a nation. Putin knows what to say and when and to whom.
In other words, you are a commenter of little importance, actually, very little importance. You can say whatever you want about the incident. No one listens to you and you count for nothing.
Shoigu spoke. Putin authorized it. That’s the historic response for the record. The Military will decide what action and when to adjudicate the “murders”. Putin will approve it. They are all on the same page. In fact, they who are specialists with decades of experience are planning the best action to take. We will probably never know about it.
Trying to be a final word on a topic in which you are not a stakeholder is blather, my friend.
Don’t heap on the Russian government your decision. It’s ludicrous.
Oh your comment is great! Having just trawled a lot of treacle wading comments.
“Yet we have some folks who persistent in sophomoric (PCR quotes included) blather.”
Absorb the facts and details imparted by Andrei.
Those personnel were murdered; talk of a tragic accident is blather. Sometimes it really is that simple, as the Russian Defense Ministry made plain from its very first statements on this matter. That’s what I based my opinion on — Russia’s, not Putin’s statements alone. Good grief.
I quote Sergei Shoigu:“The actions of the Israeli military were not in keeping with the spirit of the Russian-Israeli partnership, so we reserve the right to respond.”
I think it’s legitimate to ask.
Why should engagement rules permit Israel planes to fly so close to russian military bases in Syria, to attack Syrian forces ? Does timely notification beforehand means Russia allows Nato and allied forces to manoeuver and dictate what happens within range of their air bases ? The crazy neocons surrounding Chump are taking notes and planning accordingly… Next time around they will up the ante. Madness.
Russia does allow NATO forces to manoeuver within range of their air bases as long as they don’t breach Russian territory. This is totally within international law. This why a no-fly zone as demanded by the armchair generals is useless. Israel does not attack from within Syrian territory.
The truth is that in this complex situation around Syria there is no single “right way” to do things. Every move Russia makes is rightly subject to criticism and unexplored alternative measures. To expect consistency and perfection from Putin or anyone dealing with the madness loose in our world is useless and unrealistic. Nevertheless we can have respect for those doing all they can to keep some measure of peace, and preventing our world from unwinding into nuclear chaos.
I have another question.
I don’t really believe that the whole thing was planed in advance, I just think that the pilot simply tried to escape an incoming missile by hiding behind a larger target. Just my opinion, I have no proof to support it. My question is something else.
What if instead of the IL-20, there was a commercial airliner with let’s say 200-300 civilians in it? Would the same pilot try to hide behind it with the same ease? Did the pilot knew that he was hiding behind a 15 crew military aircraft or he didn’t care? Should a combat pilot with that kind of disregard of human life stay unpunished?
a commercial airliner with let’s say 200-300 civilians in it?
Like, just to take an example entirely at random, MH17?
One of the scenarios that the JIT et al have been trying to instill into the general consciousness over the past four years, as a step towards “the Russians did it” is “the Russians did it, but by accident”. Fog of war and all that. Just after the Russian MOD came up with some actual evidence in the case, as well. Of course, it could all be just a coincidence.
The same could be said of the people firing the air defense missiles. Why did they fire when they knew another plane was in the area?
The right of Israel to bomb Syria was acknowledged in the Russia-Israeli agreement. So, why did the Russians allow the Syrians to shoot at Israeli planes?
Look … Russia was compromised from the get-go by agreeing with Israel not to give Syria the proper equipment to do the job required of them. So the equivalence in my very low tech understanding is this amounts to arming someone with a shot gun and expecting him to shoot with sniper rifle accuracy.
Then, there is the mysterious French ship blasting away at 4 different areas inside Syria just to complete the fog of war situation and to insure that it was next to impossible to sort out. Everyone is mysteriously silent about this now two days later so does my questioning this make me some kind of loony tunes conspiracy theorist? For 8 hours that is all that was being reported besides the fact that Russia had sent out search and rescue ships and underwater drones etc. etc.
Oh yes, and let us not forget that Turkey and Russia had just signed that very day an agreement saving countless civilian lives in Idlib and freeing up much of the Syria Army to do what???? Yes, intervene more aggressively in East Syria.
And forgive my obvious unhinged paranoia if I believe that the Israelis et al. were very much aware of the technical defects in the situation ( after all they manipulated it from Putin) and the schedules of not only the Syrian batteries ( maybe 10pm was just after the night shift change? hummmm?) but also of the flight pattern rotation of the Russian surveillance plane.
You see there is the small technical picture –(yes, no IFF , sneaky Israeli pilots etc. etc) but there is a much larger political picture. Thus, one has Putin saying it was a horrible accident and Shoigu saying there will be
a price to pay someday for the deliberateness of it all. Both are correct. More will be revealed.
During yesterday’s frenzied comments, someone claimed that the Russians had fired off their S400s but they proved ineffective, all missing their targets due to a massive EW attack from the NATO ships.
Does anyone have any further info on this?
Russia is a country of 144 million. Thanks to communism a lot of it is still stuck in the past. A great deal of it’s manufacturing was lost when the Soviet Union broke up as it was located in countries lost to Russia. A big one was Ukraine which is now a captive of the west and anti Russian Nazi’s. When Yeltsin invited the American academics in to “save” the country they raped and pillaged and almost did what the western military’s could not, destroy Russia. Since then the US and it’s reluctant allies have put on ever increasing economic sanctions to finish destroying the country and get rid of the architect of it’s revival Putin. In less than twenty years Putin has brought Russia back from it’s deathbed and new life to the country. Unlike the rest of the world which can’t get rid of it’s manufacturing fast enough Russia is bringing it back to become self sufficient. Putin’s goal is to bring Russia into the modern age and beholden to no one but it’s citizens. Russia can’t do this and have an arms race with the US. An arms race that helped doom the Soviet Union. Unlike the US running the printing press wide open to project power all around the world that’s something Russia cannot do without destroying it’s economy and future. Putin is making efforts to protect it’s citizens in case of war, while the US will only protect it’s elite. The Russian military is set up to protect the homeland and any invader will be soundly defeated. Thus the Russian presence in Syria is small as wars are expensive and Russia has chosen to spend the bulk of it’s cash on it’s country. All those withdrawls of Russian military in Syria were half truths as they were replaced by fresh units. As the Saker has pointed out Russia is in Syria for it’s own interests and owes protection to no one as nobody is coming to Russia’s aid as the US in it’s push for world hegemony, which Trump has put on steroids as Trump’s actions speak louder than his words or fake summits, wants to bury Russia.
So what do you armchair warriors expect Russia to do? Shoot down everything is sight and invite massive retaliation by Israel and the US and give the US even more incentive to strangle the Russian economy? The exceptional keyboard warriors of, as Obama bragged, the one indispensable nation on the planet are too ignorant to realize that might doesn’t always make right. Russia is not the Soviet Union and it’s world presence especially militarily, Russia lost a lot of it’s military in the breakup, is small. It’s only the Russian nuclear arsenal that keeps the US from wiping out Russia before it becomes a powerful competitor and power projector on the world stage.
While the US is squeezing or overthrowing it’s friends Russia is cutting contracts around the world. The US lead Syrian peace talks are joke that no one takes seriously while the serous talks are Russian led. In the Minsk agreements the US was not invited. More world leaders head to Moscow instead of the DC swamp. Behind the scenes Israel is kissing Russian backside over their recent reckless aggression with the Russian plane. The US is spending itself into oblivion with constant never ending wars and overpriced failed weapons systems and it’s Navy crying for more ships and it’s air force wanting over 100 new squadrons. Trumps trade wars will bring back few jobs as the jobs will move to other cheap backwaters and the strong dollar hurts American exports, the farmers are already hurting, and his trillion plus dollar infrastructure plan is long dead while Trumps spending and money printing make Obama look like a cheapskate. Tax cuts that benefited the rich more than the peons while the corporations used theirs to buy back stock and feather executives nests instead of giving workers raises, increasing R&D, or bringing back jobs. As Trumps advisors make noises about “reforming”, code word for cuts, Social Security and Medicare look for ever increasing funds for the military and Homeland Security “to keep us safe.” It won’t happen overnight but the US is on it’s way to economic oblivion as the country falls apart, especially as the politicians of both parties pull out the stops and stoop as low as possible to gain power, and the rest of the world knows this. With it’s policies of “It’s our way or you’re going to be roadkill on the world highway”, the US has no friends. Thus world leaders beating a path to Moscow and Putin playing it smart and not doing anything stupid, like starting a war, as the US destroys itself from within.
Yes we’ve seen this happening for awhile now and I think we all agree that it’s just a matter of when the US implodes from all it’s failed policies that it refuses to change.
I would argue however that the US is not a rational actor on the world stage. As it gradually implodes it will also equally explode and it won’t be like the Soviet Union collapse. It will be a take as many of it’s self made adversaries down with it kind of collapse. Even if the “evil empire” loses we all still lose.
“By this point, I treat PCR as disinformation when he writes about Russia. He has consistently mis-read and mis-understood what the Russians have been trying to do. In general he joins what I consider to be a internet disinformation campaign that says that Russia must act like a character in an American ganster movie and not show any weakness.”
I consider this to be an exaggerated and even silly comment–troll-like “disinformation,” if you like. PCR is not a gangster nor does he have such a mentality. Both Saker and Martyanov have considered PCR’s questions legitimate. PCR is not trying to present Russia’s pooint of view–others have done that very well.. He is warning that factual actions taken may have undesireable and even very dangerous consequences, in view of the irrational and unintelligent reactions and mentality in Washington. Read more carefully and stop reading with a pistol in one hand. Moreover, you are impertinent, speculating abusively on PCR’s finances and on how “high on the hog” he is supposedly living.
PCR — supposedly living “high on the hog.”
This fine American lives in a 14′ wide, 2-bedroom, 1-bath, 1940s townhouse with a finished basement, which we see when he is interviewed on YouTube.
I don’t know and have never visited PCR, but my sister lived with a cousin in the development before she married.
Since people want to talk about PCR even though it’s not the topic…
At one time I was socially acquainted with people who were in Raygun’s social circle – in the mid to late 1960’s before he was governor of California.
They knew the man. They all agreed that he was a nice polite fellow, but an idiot. They laughed out loud when Nancy told them at a tea party that “powerful men are urging Ronnie to run for governor”. Nancy turned bright red. That was the occasion whereupon that social circle ended.
Since PCR knew Ronnie, and continues to praise him, the logical implication seems to be that PCR and Ronnie have, so far as PCR is concerned, a belief based relationship. This is to say that PCR is in this aspect probably delusional.
He may be right about many things. But his devotion to Ronnie is inconsistent with fact.
I might remark that the story of “Gimpel the Fool” and the story of Ronnie seem to go together…fools sometimes do good things. PCR may be blinded about Ronnie, because Ronnie actually did some good things with the USSR.
here’s the story: http://www.bolles.org/uploaded/2016-17_Summer_Reading/Upper_School/Sophomore_Summer_Reading/Gimpel_Singer_2016_HONORS.pdf
[You are correct, parrhesiastes, discussions about diverse characters is off topic here. The moderator requests that any more are moved to the Moveable Feast Cafe so that I don’t have to flag them for The Saker’s attention? Thank you. PS. I’m not picking on you, I’ve just come on duty and yours is the first I get to deal with. The Mod.]
Mr Martyanov makes a lot of good factual points, which informs the understanding of this sad situation. But until the actions of the French are properly explained there will remain a huge hole in my understanding (at least). Nothing being reported about the French frigate except the early Russian reports of missiles being launched. Also, the missile attack lasted a reported 60 minutes or longer. Hardly the effect of 4 Israeli F16s.
We may never know, but if this sort of event triggers WW3 we deserve the truth, rather than the usual spin and lies.
The up to date interview with a military pilot and specialist is essential viewing for those interested in this issue, and in dissecting it.
It does go a long way towards explaining why President Putin was so cautious in his responses – why he wants to wait for forensic evidence.
One of the pilot’s recommendations is that there be “coordination”. Well, I thought that there was coordination, or supposed to be. Whatever it was in fact, it didn’t work.
Whatever the arrangements by the Russian military, whatever higher-dimensional chess might be played by Putin, none of it worked.
Some more effective arrangements need to be made; and, as ever, more haste, less speed.
The cockpit visuals were carelessly made and made me laugh. The aircraft panels were of several types of aircraft. One was the cockpit, controls, and panel of a twin engine reciprocating engine aircraft like an old Douglas DC-3. That was so incorrect I doubted everything else. I spent decades as an airline captain and long before that was an FAA radar air traffic controller. When the pilot said the aircraft could be miles apart and still be seen as one aircraft, he lost all credibility with me. I’m pulling for Putin and Russia, but this Russian media presentation is terrible and irresponsible.
shaming people that hate Israel is not cool. I hate Israel – I never did until I saw what they do – the whole state of Israel needs to be removed – period – – they’re too expensive to keep going. They need to be dumped in the garbage can of history
The Israelis played a very similar trick on the Egyptians 30+ years ago. Their bombers came in the radar shadow of a British Airways London-Cairo flight. They left this civilian passenger plane at the last moment to bomb their targets in Cairo. I believe that was the last time they tried to bomb Cairo.
The Russian military need to study their history. The Israelis have a limited bag of tricks. This IL-20 “job” is an old one. It is a sign of desperation on their part. It is not an accident. The Israeli pilots were following orders.
The defense guarantees provided by the U.S. to Israel creates a “moral hazard” manifesting in recklessness. End the U.S. defense guarantees and the world will be safer.
Would the Saker moderator allow me a brief digression from the main thrust of the article so we an we discuss the entire incident from the perspective of the RADAR display operator’s point of view, please?
Let us assume I am a well trained and qualified Russian RADAR technician working at the Khmeimim Air Base. I have significant experience to a level of expertise that I can identify when a Russian diesel submarine breaks the surface in the Mediterranean Sea. I know it’s one of our boats and not a whale that got lost; that’s how good I am.
My directive is to only give the “go order” to launch a S-200 at an incoming airborne target whose speed and RCS (RADAR Cross Section) size matches the known cruise missiles that are used in the U.S.-NATO and Israeli arsenal. Since I don’t have IFF recognition capability, all I have to go on is a blip, approximate RCS size and tracked velocity displayed on my scope. I have been briefed by my superiors the Israeli Air Force will not fly directly into the range of our airbase so I can ignore any blips whose RCS indicates a larger object than a cruise missile.
I am also in contact with normal airbase flight operations such as the IL-20 mission schedule. I know when it takes off and its approximate return. It’s RCS size is much bigger than any cruise missile or F-16 fighter plane.
So we come down to this question; why would I issue an order to fire the S-200 when I have no reason to suspect Israeli F-16’s are closing in on the IL-20 and also know the objects are not cruise missiles based upon the RCS size displayed on my scope?
You are Russian. Syrians manned the S-200. Syrians intended to shoot down the F-16s.
So, you set up a syllogism. It sounds logical. But it was incorrect from the start.
Russians did not fire the S-200 missile.
If the Russians believe the S-200 destroyed the IL-20, why are they trying to salvage as much of the airframe and engines as possible beyond the classified ELINT technology and aircrew remains? I would think there should also be a FDR (Flight Data Recorder) and CVR (Cockpit Voice Recorder) that will giver further evidence of the crime. I can only surmise they’re doing it to conduct a complete forensic examination to determine what actually downed the surveillance aircraft. They may discover another type of missile hit the plane instead of the S-200.
If the Syrians operated the S-200 as you speculate, why aren’t they admitting they did it? It’s difficult to imagine the S-200 operator (Syrian or Russian) was not aware of scheduled aircraft departures and arrivals at the airbase. There also could be a saboteur working with Israel and France to blow up the IL-20 by giving the mission schedule to Israel. We will know much more after Russia completes the investigation.
and of course capitalists have fought each other for greed, conquest and the constellation of sectarian interests on which opposing concentrations of wealth rests. but they can also make deals, join up in exploiting wealth they all want
the sticking point between the Russians and the west is the Zionist question and and their animus for the Russians… and what they want to do to the Russians as a result. they want Russia to dispose of as they see fit. they want Russia whole and total and when they get it they are going to do seriously wicked things to that nation ands its people
were it not for that Putin and the empire would be as thick as thieves. Putin would define a deal that all parties can agree with. Putin is very good at that…great indeed. Putin even has crazy, contradictory Erdogan eating out of his hand. but he cannot get the Zionists to bite unless he allows them to bit off his whole arm. I don’t think he with settle for that.
however whoever replaces him as Russian president might just agree to sacrifice his arm along with his nation to become part of the capitalist club. and of course in the club Russian begins to fight the ordinary people of the world in the interest of the capitalists
the question then still is: what of the future of the human species? Current Russia really has no answer to that question. Putins Russia represents nothing but its own narrow sectarian capitalist interests in the world
Ben, yours is a very philosophical view, but it lacks contemplation of socio-economic developments… Capitalist concentration of riches is just too contradictory to let the system continue indefinitely – other systems failed before, and capitalism is failing now. The future can only be predicted in the sense that there will be one only if we can escape capitalism-imperialism without a nuclear war.
But, but, but…
Who cares about factual information, we have a job to do. Putin must be seen as weak, bought out, corrupt and incompetent. Russia must be seen as colluding with israel against Syria. Those who support Russia/multipolarity against us must be dissuaded of their folly and the best way to do this is convince them Russia is no different than the usa or eu in subservience to zionazis.
(Puts on anti-zionist-zionist* off-guardian websayanim s.w.a.r.m. hat.)
*Term Gilad Atzmon coined about the creatures.
here is PCR then. looks like I was wrong according to PCR even on Erdogan and Putin. looks like Putin made a bad deal there too
is PCR wrong vot tak?
Thanks for confirming what I wrote about pcr further up the thread, and reinforcing what I wrote immediately above, benjamin. :-D
There’s a strange obsession with Putin amongst these people. Let’s call them cia assets. I heard them demand Putin nuke Israel for the last 5 years. They have been singing the same song for at least 5 years. There’s no need to treat this incident other than the author of the post does. I like that he calls war cheerleaders technophiles. The love touching their computers, obsessing over Putin.
I’ve also seen them suggest it’s Putin job to solve the 9/11 crime! “Ha, Putin didn’t solve 9/11 for us. He’s a zionist.”
Dumb, crazy, and arrogant. Don’t laugh too much at crazies though, especially when dumb, crazy, and arrogant.
Is it necessary to say that Turkey and Israel are mocking Putin and the Kremlin? That we need keep calm …
It should be kept in mind that Israel has access to the best military tech in the world, either self-developed or stolen from the US or Russia. Moreover, there may have been additional Israeli military assets involved in the attack undetected by the Russians in addition to the known F-16s. For example, one or more F-35s as suggested by poster goshawks. The missiles reported to have been fired by the French may then have come from another source. In any case, the presence of the frigate is a useful tool for misdirection of which the Israelis are masters.
This article is trying to protect Israel from retaliation.
If Russia do not shoot down the next Israeli aircraft approaching Syrian territory, Russia will be deemed a coward by western and Israeli media, and the AZ provocations against Russia will escalate to include the Black sea, the Baltic sea, and the Barent sea.
Most likely, the next thing will be British or French Fighters raiding Syria, while simoultainiously endangering/killing Russian forces.
Syria, Lebanon, Russia and Iran are up against a gang of bullies.
The only way to fight a mob is to first pick the smallest member of the mob, and beat the crap out of him.
Then turn against the next in line.
Start by enforcing a no fly zone against Israel.
Shoot down every IAF plane approaching Syria incl Golan, and Lebanese airspace.
When Israel Backs off, then expand the no fly zone to include France.
At least when we all die from the resulting nuclear war, we will do so saying “Russia was not a coward.”
I am a bit tired of the school-yard bully analogy. If a boy trying to defend against a bully miscalculates, then the perhaps he comes home with a bloody nose and some bruises. At worst a trip to the ER to deal with injuries. He might come home sore, but likely his mom buys him an ice cream on the way home from the hospital to make it feel better.
If someone miscalculates on this sort of situation, we all die in a nuclear war and human civilization as we know it ends. And no one buys us an ice cream.
The difference in the stakes on the table makes the school-yard bully analogy a bit tired and not very useful.
You must understand that the western population fear a nuclear war, maybe even more than Russians do.
The western population can stop the escalation in Syria, without a war.
Remember when Obama and Hillary tried to send boots on the ground in Syria.
That attemp failed because of the no-more-wars and anti intervention sentiment in western population.
That sentiment is still very pronounced in the west, and especially in Europe, because of the refuge crises created by NATO “interventions”.
But western MSM = zionist Media, do not rapport the current escalation in Syria.
so the western population do not percieve the danger.
If Israel starts loosing Pilots and soldiers in Syria, The Zionist media will plaster the spill of Jewish blood, on the front page of every western news media. Zion will crie for NATO intervention in Syria.
However, the west is feed up with wars for Israeli and US hegamony.
Political warmongering fell from grace in the west, with the death of McCain.
Now we know the IFF was non-existent there still remain many questions. According to Russia the French frigate fired missiles. What kind (cruise or Aster) and what at?
If the ‘warehouse’ was the objective, and I personally doubt it was, why were 4 Israeli jets from hundreds of kilometers away even needed when cruise missiles from the French frigate, the Brits in Cyprus or anywhere within 1000km (including from Israel) would do the trick?
Did the F-16s have to pop up to deliver their treacherous cargo or were they detected as soon as they were over the horizon?
F-16s are not stealthy and so would have to fly under radar. Could the IL-20 look down Elint have picked them up while still 30 minutes away and well before the IL-20 landing configuration started?
Why did these F-16s have to fly so close? There’s still more, much more to this.
Clearly the IL-20 Elint is a sitting duck and will now need fighter escort with some kind of ECM pod.
I believe there is one thing that has been forgotten, or at least one person, the Israeli mathematician, Robert John Aumann of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem’s Centre for Rationality, who won the 2005 Nobel Prize for Economics for his work on conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis.
Aumann was, I believe, the author of an extremely interesting article: http://www.takeourworldback.com/77suicidebombershoax/ on regard to the London bombing on the 7/7/2005.
Another very interesting article on the London bombing titled, “Rules of conflict for a world war” was by Efraim Halevi, a former head of the Mossad and ‘Head’ of the Center for Strategic and Policy Studies at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, that were printed in ‘The Jerusalem Post’ on the same day as the London Bombing, the 7th of July 2005.
And among all of this was Benjamin Netanyahu. After the London bombing, Benjamin Netanyahu returned to Israel and on the 7th August 2005, 31 days after the London bombing, Netanyahu resigned as the Finance Minister under Ariel Sharon, but immediately took steps to displace Sharon as Prime Minister, beginning with his attempt to gain leadership of the Likud party, which would have removed Sharon from the position of Prime Minister.
However, for Benjamin Netanyahu to continue his political career, he had to overcome the major gaffe he made in London on the 7th July, 2005 when he stated that he had been ‘warned’ in regard to the London bombing. The gaffe was that there is not one iota of evidence that Netanyahu received any warnings, but Netanyahu did have prior knowledge of the London bombings, knowledge that could only have come from the people who orchestrated this terrorist event.
Now, with this knowledge of just how Netanyahu works, and the use of Robert Aumann’s ‘Game Theory’ is utilised, if we made a proper assessment of the events of the 17th September, the only outcome would be that the shooting down of the II-20 was a deliberate provocation by Israel and Netanyahu, using previous actions and reactions both by Russia and VV Putin. Even Israel’s response to the incident fits Aumann’s theory.
So, is this a sufficient reason to retaliate against the Israeli provocation? Unfortunately the logical answer must be ‘No’, and the reason the answer is no, in case somebody has forgotten was the agreement between KSA and Israel to attack Iran required the backing of the USA and NATO.
Should Russia retaliate against Israel, then that gives Israel and the US/NATO the excuse to start fresh attacks, and we are all aware of the outcome of such an event.
So how do the Russians say; “There are many ways to skin a cat” and I believe Shoigu has a very sharp skinning knife
Interesting paper at given url.
Also interesting https://www.conspiracy-cafe.com/apps/blog/show/8636674-preparing-the-wtc-for-destruction
(a case that this is on topic can be made insofar as the Il20 affair revolves around Israeli policy…and so doe the two urls)
The story about the WTC comes from an “art book”…evidently a very limited edition for the mossad bar and cocktail lounge…
The Saker has pointed-out the messianic ideology of the Anglo-zionists and the corresponding behaviors this results in. Undoubtedly, there is a “playbook” at work here in these most recent events, and we are left to judge what the original goal was, or could have been, from the aftermath. That the latest Anglo-zionists sortie was successful or unsuccessful is not known. But, having read the Saker’s blog, it would seem plausible that the “plan” was “provoke The Russian Bear”, and to bait them, so as to invite disaster on Syria – as well as “universal” derision. So, were the French the sacrificial lamb? ie, the bait. 100 years ago the Anglo-zionists conquered this land in their “Great War”, so, it seems to speak of a lofty ambition that this latest thrust should align to the very day, what they themselves coined the “battle of Armageddon”.
Why couldn’t they defend the IL-20? My own take.
Such planes are usually defended by keeping them well behind the active fighting zone. Usually their sensors and radars have long range, so they can stay hundreds of miles away and still do their job. That’s how they are defended. They are also slow. The are really a cargo plane that is loaded with electronics and radars and fuel. In an air battle, there might be a reserve flight of fighters also back a bit from the battle. If someone tries to come around a flank and get to a supporting plane like the IL-20, they’ll be spotted a long ways off and the reserve can deal with the threat. That’s how they are normally defended. At least in a text book case.
The geography of Syria is of course different. The important cities are along the coast or along a strip a bit inland. The main Russian air base is on the coast. The Israelis were bombing in the same region as the airbase. Breaking agreements on deconfliction with the Russians by some accounts.
Thus, this IL-20 was approaching the airbase when the Israelis were launching their missiles. The approach to this airbase took the plane out to sea then to turn and come in and land. Which put it out near where the Israelis were.
A combat air patrol of fighters would have done nothing to protect this plane in this situation. If the Russians were protecting the Syrians (and their own base) by engaging the Israelis, that would be different. In that case the CAP would be engaging the Israelis out where they fired from, or sooner. But that was not the case on this day. Thus, having a couple of jet fighters circling above while the IL-20 did its approach and landing would not have defended the plane.
At the airbase, someone was on watch with duties to command the Russian air operations. I’d imagine that person is wondering what he could have done differently. He (or she) would be if they are a good officer, and people died on their watch. They’d be thinking about this a lot.
The question is how fast did they react in a quickly evolving situation? And the question he(or she) would be asking themselves is could I have reacted sooner? I suspect the answer is yes, but I’m not sure how much of a difference it would have made.
The Saker in another post had a good map of the situation as released by the MOD. The Israelis took off, and headed NW towards Cyprus, then they turned to the NE, staying south of Cyprus. Then they turned to the East, and made their approach run to launch their missiles. After that they turned in behind the IL-20, using it as a human shield.
So, the question is could the watch officer have ordered the IL-20 out of the way? Remember, we are talking about jet airplanes and a compact area. So, I’d guess all of this happened pretty quickly.
Did the watch officer see the threat to his plane when the Israelis launched and headed away to the NW? Not likely, unless he’d seen this flight pattern before and thus knew it was a threat. Since the Israelis usually don’t attack up in Latakia, the Israeli flight probably didn’t look threatening at that point.
Did the watch officer react when the Israelis changed course and headed NE? This is where I’d imagine the watch officer is questioning themselves? Could I have seen this sooner? Or maybe she did react then and it was already too late?
When the Israelis made their turn to the E to begin their attack run, that’s when it might have become obvious what was going on. But, with jet aircraft, was that too late to get this slow cargo plane out of harm’s way? Almost certainly.
What the watch officer is probably wrestling with right now is should they have had an over-abundance of caution and ordered that IL-20 to break off and get out of the way as soon as he saw the Israelis turn northeast? If he did that everytime the Israelis flew, he’d probably have an aggravated crew who got upset at being ordered away from the base when they were already picturing their next visit to the pub. They’d be making jokes about this crazy watch officer who always over reacted. But, on this day, such caution might have saved a plane and its crew. Or perhaps even then would have been already too late?
All of this is of course speculation, not knowing the speeds of the aircraft, the timings of the events, nor how much fuel the IL-20 had left.
What’s the point of this “explanation?” How does an IFF, or lack of one, change the situation or the need for a proper response? Does it magically absolve Israel of any guilt? I get the urge to pour cold water on the hotheaded armchair analysts, how would this article and the information within do that? It wouldn’t.
Israel needs to be taught a lesson. I’m not talking about an offensive military response, but one Putin is especially good at, an asymmetrical, yet very powerful and painful measure.
I do not subscribe to the American view on strength, and how one should never appear weak, but letting 15 deaths of soldiers go unanswered is unacceptable even to me.
Israel needs to be grounded, in more ways than one, but seeing as humbling a deeply racist, supremacist and arrogant beyond belief ideology is an impossible task, grounding their planes would suffice. Announce that Israeli jets will be shot out of the sky if they get too close to Russian aircraft, citing this incident. Next, stop giving the IDF information on where your planes are at any given time. That is what I would consider a possible, appropriate response. Syria is an ally, a very useful, important, necessary and crucial one at that. Israel has been fueling the Syrian war for too long, it’s long overdue to stop them.
In long view Rus and Israel need cooperative and cordial relationship. That can occur in the future. The important matter is to get to that future by avoiding a general war, which, at this time, would be suicide.
When Likudnik nazis in the matter, people who have powerful representation inside several “western” states, lose power, Peace between Rus and Israel becomes a necessity, and therefore must exist.
As an aside – since the theater strategic attack failed to create a ground for a massive bombing campaign in Syria we expect they’ll try again. It is only a pause…hence the NOTAM closing the Eastern Med…
Speaking of Likudnik nazis may shock…but it ought not. see Uncle Albert’s letter…and read https://archive.org/details/AlbertEinsteinLetterToTheNewYorkTimes.December41948
excerpt: “…Among the most disturbing political phenomena of our times is the emergence in the newly created state of Israel of the “Freedom Party” (Tnuat Haherut), a political party closely akin in its organization, methods, political philosophy and social appeal to the Nazi and Fascist parties. It was formed out of the membership and following of the former Irgun Zvai Leumi, a terrorist, right-wing, chauvinist organization in Palestine.
The current visit of Menachem Begin, leader of this party, to the United States is obviously calculated to give the impression of American support for his party in the coming Isr…”
Actually I disagree about Russia, or anyone else for that matter, needing to have good relations with Israel. Israel is on a path to self destruction, all their policies have been enacted on faith that their greater Israel project succeeds, which it never will. It is surrounded by enemies and is only able to keep them at bay with support from the US. The US, as it does today, will not exist in 5-10 years and Israel will vanish as soon as it’s imperial backer collapses, the policies of pissing off the entire planet and antagonizing, discriminating against and murdering their immediate neighbours are unsustainable without the help of the empire. Israel couldn’t defeat the B team of Hezbollah 12 years ago for F’s sake, Hezbollah has only gotten bigger, more experienced and more powerful while the IDF is flying around in F35 trash cans, which can be tracked by civilian radar systems.
Israel is a plague in the middle east, they were never accepted there, because all they ever did was annex land, murder the natives and destroy their homes for 7 decades and they have not stopped until this day. Israel is a problem which will fix itself as soon as the US collapses under it’s lies, corruption and hypocrisy after the next financial crisis.
All that said, back to this topic. Establishing what is effectively a no fly zone for Israel, or, if the Russians so choose, everyone else, which is long overdue, is an absolutely justifiable, appropriate and necessary response, anything less is a green light to Israel to keep bombing Syria indiscriminately. The Russians, Iranians and of course Syrians are the only ones with aircraft operating in Syria who are doing so legally, supported by international law which even western governments are starting to admit, like the German government, the embarrassment that it is. We saw Vladimir Putin at the trilateral meeting with Erdogan and Rouhani, his patience is running out with this criminal scum, it lasted way longer than most other peoples would, to his credit. But it’s time for more drastic measures, this war has long ended and is only being prolonged artificially by the Western terrorist states and their puppets.
Without nazis what would Israel look like? Perhaps their indeterminable borders would shrink?
Yet the people would still be…where? 1967 border would be a fair guess..
Perhaps 5 million Jewish (and not so Jewish) Israelis would return to Russ…
These are long term matters…
If Israel will be gone soon along with the US, as some say, it may be that the blame would fall on Russ…this is not a desirable outcome for internal Russ political reality…and if these two States are going to soon be gone, how does the Russ response or lack of response matter?
If Israel gone, what of the bombs?
Cordial relations are vital. A well behaved and reduced Israel is a thing that would seem to suit realpolitik, if not the emotional desires of some. Deduction implies that this is goal of VVP, who may well negotiate the surrender of those bombs…time will tell us.
If the Zionists leave, there is still the matter of 7 decades of murderous and destructive policies which their neighbours will not glance over, the West doesn’t draw up distinctions between Shiites and Sunnis, not to mention Sunnis and Wahhabiists, why would the victims of Zionism? The innocent Israelis will bear the brunt of vengeance of the Arab world if they do not serve up the Zionazis first. We’ll have to see if they will be allowed to stay afterwards, that’s up to the Palestinians.
Personally, I am very much against Israel, it has brought nothing but pain, suffering, death and destruction to the region, not one positive can be drawn from the day it was illegally formed by the UN, one of the first acts if not the first acts of the UN. What will happen to the Jewish population? They will scatter across the globe, some of course will land in Russia. Is it a desirable outcome of mine? Not really, but analysis rarely forms around wishful thinking, unless you work for Western media outlets.
I sincerely doubt any blame would fall on Russia if Israel collapses, as it will, just look at what they are doing. The US constantly attacks the UN for passing anti-Israel resolutions. That’s not because they are discriminating against Israel or Jewish people, it’s because not even US vassal states can comfortably support what is going on, even though their masters demand full, unconditional cooperation.
You bring up a great point about the bombs, by which I assume you mean the nukes the Zionists have. This is a huge problem, with which Russia can lend a helping hand. They have established themselves as the go to partner of middle eastern states, they can and are talking to literally everybody, to the Saudis, Israelis, Qataris, Iranians, Iraqis, Kuwaitis you name it, Russia has diplomatic relations with all of them, unlike the US, the EU or pretty much anyone else. The US calls some of them allies, others enemies, so do the states among themselves, the Russians can serve as mediator, as they are the only ones who can do so. Not to mention they have gained a ton of credibility with their approach to Syria and how they handled every situation since September of 2015.
But again, back to topic. The no fly zone would matter a lot to the Syrians, wouldn’t you agree? It matters in the very short term, the Syrian war could be over in weeks, maybe days, if the US, their vassals and Israel stop their criminal assault on the country. It’s not a matter of punishing Israel for it’s actions, though it is the justification, it’s a matter of stopping their illegal bombing, which can be credibly and justifiably achieved because of this tragedy, to help the SAA.
Peace, Brother, Good post.
@ “We’ll have to see if they will be allowed to stay afterwards, that’s up to the Palestinians.” This is partially true, I think. But are there not other “players”? (Like VVP) The behavior of the US toward Moslem divisions seems irrelevant so far was the post US scene, assuming that regime is gone, and also irrelevant with respect to mid-east policies post hoc generally. Vengeance will be a serious difficulty…and an opportunity for Rus to get those bombs secured. Mitigating violence and vengeance is realpolitik for Rus, especially the atomic sort.
My personal feeling toward Israel is not much different that yours, brother. Did you read Uncle Albert’s letter? (url above) Me too… It has been a recognized nazi intelop since the start. It is also an objective reality and a belief set shared by millions…and has to be dealt with as such in order to mitigate violence and disaster, and undesirable legacies. Millions of true believers have been and are being cynically used by this intelop. A vast deception, and crime. If ordinary Jews come to see their own nazis as nazis…the massacre might even evolve into a single secular nation… Stranger things have happened…
I did not assume Israeli collapse, I assumed a serious Rus attack against Israel, something proposed by some emotional people. The reality probably is that without US support Israelis will turn to Rus in desperation to avoid collapse – who else? They’ll trade away border claims and the bombs…for a deal to avoid a massacre?
Maybe so. VVP will smile… Why end of US support? Economic reality of end of empire/dollar/etc. These seem to be inevitable as a consequence of structure of US Empire. All Empires end anyway. US Imperial decline drives the Policies we see – desperate. Ultimately 100% of Imperial efforts will be necessary simply to maintain the State itself as the Empire peels away…to control a dissolution of the US…as we see today the US prepares for civil war by transmogrifying into a Police State (not that I object).
Imperial collapse intrinsically involves Israeli capitulation to the sole trustworthy and powerful “player” – Rus.
First Empire, then Israel. Is natural sequence. Look at finance…
@But again, back to topic. The no fly zone would matter a lot to the Syrians, wouldn’t you agree?
Indeed I do. And I expect it.
Many see the European defeat of overt fascists, Germany in large part, by the Red Army, as the end of the nazis. This is in fact a false notion. See this obscure tome: http://spitfirelist.com/books/honorable01.pdf
The evidence for this thesis is overwhelming, but never openly discussed… In fact a symposium on the topic would be illuminating.
The Germans were defeated, the nazis were not – they were transnational to start with, and remain so. The nazis run the “west”…and if one looks at a map, the Greater Nazi Reich” exists in close approximation to the stated German nazi policies of the 1940s…
Now I am off to do a bit of “chop wood carry water” type work…adios..
I was unaware of the incomplete IFF data the Syrians had/have. To allow the Israelis continued access to Syrian airspace should IMHO end. A credible threat against Israeli military airfields and RADAR sites of the Israeli air defense system ties down substantial resources on the Israeli side.
However a SAM site manned by Russians and with full IFF data is a threat of a different kind. If that site scores a kill against an Israeli aircraft it was Russia engaged in a military confrontation. Even more dangerous if the downed aircraft is a NATO plane USA, Britain, France and unfortunately also Germany all violate Syrian airspace.
Thanks for a thoughtful and well reasoned article on this important matter. I tend to support the author’s, as well as the Saker’s insights relative to these matters. It seems to me that Putin is a brilliant man, an experienced martial artist, and a strategist. In the long run, his calm, cool demeanor and deliberate actions are what is needed now. For many years, I have followed, and enjoyed, the commentary of Paul Craig Roberts. Relative to what happens in the cesspool of Washington, D.C., I think he is very well informed. In terms of Russian realities, I think he just doesn’t quite get it. Perhaps this is being charitable. In any case, well done to Andrei and the Saker!
By the way, I believe IFF actually refers to Identification, Friend or Foe. At least, this is what it meant to us in the Electronic Warfare community of the US Navy back in the 70’s.
There are some maroons claiming the il-20 was actually shot down by the French vessel and Israel agreed to be the fall guy – and Putin has gone along in order to preserve ‘favorable’ French/Russian relations!
Macron: I wanna get me some Rooskie hide
French military: But we have ze good relations with Russia!
Macron: Pfft. Do it and get Israel to take the rap.
French military: Sheeeet, OK boss
French military:So we shoot down a Russian plane, and you take the rap, OK!
Netanyahu: We take the rap for nobody! … What’s in it for us?
French military: Well the Russians either impose a NFZ over Syria or suck your big hairy …
Netanyahu: Hmmm. I prefer the NFZ. Deal. We cover for you. And you owe us plenty moolah.
Mr Martyanov says…
I ask Mr Martynaov to refer to the graphic released by the Russian MoD which clearly shows the respective flight paths of the Ilyushin and the F16s…
There is only one point where the two respective flight paths come close…the Ilyushin in red, and the F16s in blue…
This ‘close encounter’ point is where the Ilyushin, flying westbound, makes a right 90 degree turn north…while the F16s flying eastbound, make a right 90 degree turn south…
HOWEVER…the graphic provides NO INFORMATION as to the TIME STAMPS on those two respective flight paths at that close encounter…
In other words…the Ilyushin may have made that turn north minutes BEFORE OR AFTER the F16s came to that same ‘close encounter’ spot and made their turn south…
Which means the F16s would never have been anywhere near that Ilyushin at any time…
If Mr Martyanov has any concrete timestamp information to prove otherwise then I would be very interested in seeing it…
BUT…even if we assume the F16s and the Ilyushin happened to be at that close encounter spot at the exact same moment in time…what was their VERTICAL SEPARATION…?
We have no idea, because the MoD infographic also DOES NOT provide any altitude information on either respective flightpath…
That infographic is a two dimensional map…aircraft fly in three dimensions, including height…even if the two respective flights were at that close encounter point at the exact same time, their vertical separation may have been several kilometers…again making radar masking impossible…
Here is what we do know about the Ilyushin flight…it was shot down while flying at an altitude of 5,000 meters…and about 30 to 40 km north of that ‘close encounter’ point…
The infographic also tells us that the airplane came down at exactly 22:07…
Now let us work out the time elapsed for the Ilyushin flight, from that close encounter point…the Il20 is a turboprop aircraft with a cruise speed of ~600 km/hr and a cruise altitude of 8,000 m…
After that close encounter turn to the north, the airplane would have been slowing and descending…by the time it was hit, it had already made another right 90 degree turn to the east, on its final approach leg into Hmeimim…that distance, from the close encounter to the turn to final is about 30 to 40 km, which we can precisely scale from google maps…
At its cruise speed of 600 km/hr that is 10 km per minute…so it would take the Ilyushin three to four minutes at cruise speed to cover that distance…Since it was already slowing down and descending it may have been more like five minutes of flight time…[from the point of ‘close encounter’ to the point where it was hit]
Now let’s look at the S200 flight speed…it is one of the fastest SAM rockets at 2.5 km/s…25 percent faster than the S400…
If it was fired from a distance of 100 km, it would have taken just 40 seconds to reach the Ilyushin…even fired from the extremely long range of 200 km it is less than a minute and a half flight time…
The ONLY time that the radar ‘shadowing could possibly occur was at that ‘close encounter’ point…if it was indeed a case of radar ‘masking’ then the missile would have to have been fired at that same moment where the two flight paths are at that ‘close encounter’ point…
It would take the missile at most a minute or so to get to the Ilyushin…YET THE ILYUSHIN KEPT FLYING FOR FIVE MINUTES…
That’s impossible…the S200 cannot fly for FIVE MINUTES…its maximum range is about 375 km which means it burns out after 150 seconds…exactly two and a half minutes…[its burn time of 150 seconds is in its specifications]
And where would that S200 be launched from in order to have to fly 375 km…from the US controlled Kurdish territory…?
It is ridiculous…the S200 would have been launched from maybe 50 to 100 km away…and it would get to the Ilyushin in under a minute [maybe 20 to 40 seconds after that ‘close encounter’]…
The Ilyushin would have been hit before the airplane even got 10 km north of that close encounter point…
The story does not add up…it is fiction…the Russian 3D radar has all the data on the exact timestamps of every airplane in the sky that night…the Il20 is an extremely valuable electronic intelligence platform [ELINT]…it has 15 extremely specialized electronic warfare crew and Russian ground controllers would have been in constant radio contact with the airplane…
The Russian radar, both ground based and airborne early warning with the two BeA50s operating in Syria…would have a timestamp for every inch of those F16s also…as well as their EXACT ALTITUDE…
But they have given none of that information…why not…?
All they halve presented is a 2D ‘road map’ of the two flight paths that DOES NOT PROVE THEY WERE AT THAT CLOSE ENCOUNTER POINT AT THE SAME TIME AND SAME ALTITUDE…
And even if they were…the S200 shot is IMPOSSIBLE…because it would have taken down the Ilyushin within a few kilometers of that close encounter…not five minutes and 40 km later…
And let’s consider the likely altitude of the F16s…they were reported to be flying quite low in the initial reports from the Russian media…and this is consistent with how they would operate…they flew north from Israeli airspace keeping more than 100 km off the Syrian coast…
They dropped GBU39 glide bombs approximately 50 km from their target on the Latakia coast…these glide bombs have a glide ratio of about 10 to 15, so the F16s would only need to be at a height of about 3,000 to 5,000 m when dropping the bombs…[which incidentally are very small and unpowered and hence very difficult to defend against]…
The point at which the bombs are dropped is clearly marked on the infographic…it is about 20 km away from the ‘close encounter’ point…right after dropping the bombs…the F16s would have dived and made a sharp descending right turn to the south at the same time…in order to get as low to the sea surface as possible…probably within 1,000 meters or less in order to keep outside the radar horizon of SAM ground radar…
A fighter can dive and turn very sharply…and that turn south is shown on the infographic…but that ilyushin is higher than 5,000 m at that point…maybe as high as 8,000 m…
So how could the F16s ever be close enough vertically to the Ilyushin to hide behind its radar reflection…?
These are simple, common sense questions…to which there is no answer in the infographic and the ‘official’ story…nor in Mr Martyanov’s explanation here…
1. the infographic is a 2D map that shows no precise timestamp info on the F16s…
2. the infographic provides no altitude info on the F16s, but we do know from reports that the Ilyushin came down from a height of 5,000 m…
3 the S200 can cover 100 km in 40 seconds…which means it would have to have been fired NOT at that ‘close encounter’ point..but at some point with the Ilyushin many km north of that point..and the F16s many km south of that point…
Thank you for that explanation.
I remember when Turkey shot down their plane the MoD gave a very detailed account of what had happened and how and noticed that this time there was nothing…. Just ‘they used the plane for radar cover etc.”
Know I know why.
Thank-you for the very detailed (and IMO, likely very accurate) analysis. I must agree with you. Given your analysis, I see no way the Israeli F-16s could have “hidden” behind the IL-20. The only remaining explanation is that the official story is just a convenient fiction that is being used to mask what really happened. Why would Russia do this?
1. To avoid admitting that their ability to detect attacking Israeli planes was either non-existent (hard to believe), or
2. Their ability to detect the attacking Israeli planes was “down” (not operational) at the time of the attack, or
3. That the standing orders for the Russian military were to “hold their fire” and not shoot down the Israeli jets.
Why would Russia do this…?
There are several good reasons…
Let’s first consider who and what might have actually shot down the Ilyushin…
Clearly it was not a Syrian S200…for simple reasons of physics, which all missiles and aircraft must obey, as explained above…S200 flies at 2.5 km/s…Il20 flies at 10 km/min…
An Il20 cannot fly for 3 to 5 minutes after an S200 is launched at it…that is physically impossible…because the S200 will cover 100 km in 40 seconds…while an Ilyushin will cover maybe 6 km in that same time…not 30 or 40 km as the MoD map shows…
We also have the FACT that the French frigate Auvergne fired missiles at around this time…this was detected by Russian sensors [perhaps infrared sensors on the ground or in an aircraft flying nearby or perhaps even by satellite…
Also in the air at the time of the Ilyushin downing were a couple of British jets flying out of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus…
The Russian MoD has not specified the type, but we do know that Akrotiri hosts 9 Eurofighter Typhoon fighters and 10 Panavia Tornado fighter-bombers…
It is certain that the Israelis did not shoot down the Ilyushin…they were flying in opposite directions after that ‘close encounter’…so the Israeli jets would not have been able to point their missiles at an aircraft 180 degrees behind them…
That leaves the French ship equipped with a very capable SAM system…the Aster 15/30…and it leaves the British jets, which do carry air to air missiles…the Typhoons carry long-range AIM120 radar guided missiles with a range of over 100 km…
Both of those could have shot down the Ilyushin…the Auvergne was closest to the Ilyushin and [notably] its exact location is presented on the MoD infographic…we don’t have any info on the location or flight path of the British jets…or even their type…
Now…we can be quite sure that the Russian MoD knows exactly what happened and who shot down the Ilyushin…incidentally, there is a good chance that the ‘Il20’ was in fact the newest iteration of this spy plane, the Il22PP…which entered service in 2016…and is a top of the line electronic warfare aircraft…ie a VERY valuable asset…much more so than a mere fighter jet for example…this would be in keeping with the MoDs stated objective to test as much new gear in Syria as possible…
Such high value assets are handled very carefully…not least of all due to the 15 highly trained electronic warfare specialists on board…so any notion that this was a ‘mistake’ is hard to take seriously…
So why would Russia now provide a story that blames Israel…but doesn’t actually name the real culprits, France and Britain…?Please stop all this speculation. Mod
There are some very compelling reasons…first is the fact that Russia now has the chance to rein in Israel with its illegal air raids on Syria…it is like the kid who is told not to run in the house…and then when he is caught running in the house and a vase falls down and breaks he is punished…even though it was the cat that knocked the vase down…
Israel was doing something it was not supposed to be doing…a lot of things actually…bombing Syria…sailing those bombs right over the heads of Russian military concentrated in Tartus and Latakia [BIG no-no]…and not even sticking to the advance warning system agreed to…
Besides the fact that the very valuable Ilyushin was lost due to someone else…Israel still has a lot to answer for…
So Russia can with this leverage now rein in Israel…it will bolster its air defenses in Syria..and it may even go ahead and give the Syrians S300s…something Israel has begged Russia not to do…
And what about the real culprits…the Nato countries Britain and France…?
Well…what do you suppose would happen if the Russian MoD fingered those two for this very serious act of aggression…?
It would spark a very big crisis instantly…the Russian people would demand their country’s honor be defended…what is Putin supposed to do, declare war on Nato…?
But now let’s turn the question round and think from the perspective of Nato…haven’t they been trying very hard to provoke Russia in Syria in order to start some kind of shooting and escalation and thereby get Russia to abandon Syria altogether…?
Does anyone really think Nato would hesitate to do something like shoot down a Russian plane…?…even the Turks did that without hesitating…
They know that Putin is not going to shoot back…because that would be playing into their game…it’s what they want, and they know he isn’t going to retaliate, so it is basically a freebie…a cheap-shot freebie…
Now that is not saying that Putin’s strategy is wrong…on the contrary it is always to the warrior’s advantage to fight the enemy at the time and place of your own choosing, not the other way round…
One day after the downing of the Ilyushin, Russia began a massive live fire naval drill around Cyprus…here is the notice to airman [NOTAM] that was issued by the Cyprus civil aviation authorities…
The zones in red are the ‘no-fly’ zones from the surface to a height of 19,000 ft…interesting to note that the exercise neatly rings the RAF Akrotiri base which is shown as number 5 on the map…
If an ‘accident’ were to happen involving a British plane or a French ship…well, revenge is a dish best served cold…
In any case, the no-go zones [running until Sept 26] will make sure that various two bit actors like Britain and France will see their freedom of movement around Syria hemmed in, in international airspace and waters no less…
Is this a clue as to what is really going on…?
Well…everyone presumably has their own mind with which to make logical conclusions…although some prefer to ‘receive’ wisdom from ‘trusted’ sources…and leave their ‘mind’ free to ‘rest’…
Russian MoD claims israeli jets used a Russian aircraft as cover for their attack and published a simplified graphic to show the basics. An anonymous internet commenter then used that simplified graphic, along with links to wikipedia, to claim the MoD is lying.
Who to believe? The Russian military? Or some anonymous guy basing his critique on a simplified graphic and wikipedia?
It’s a real tough call…
Russia must understand that those in control of the United States are committed to the destruction of Russia. Either true-believers or psychopaths, only their belief in their likely death will deter their behavior. Or their fear of revolution in the United States leading to their removal from power. This is too unlikely for serious consideration.
Only Russia’s serious threat to destroy the United States with nuclear weapons will stop the United States, because it would destroy the aristocrats, and the aristocrats have so much to live for, and they believe they are so close, they will not accept it.
Hate to have to side with Mike with this but this has to be the endgame strategy as I see it.
I f Russia really seeks to be an independent actor on the world stage then it will have to flex it’s muscle as it will be provoked until it respond’s as the west wants.
I understand those on this blog favour Putin’s and Russia’s strategy up until this point but it will only work if you are dealing with a rational opponent and the west is far too fractured and self absorbed to be a predictable. If Russia were able to turn all of the areas of conflict (middle east, Korea, Ukraine or hell the planet for that matter into its political orbit somehow it wouldn’t matter as there will be conflict that will become unavoidable. Russia can pat itself on the back all it want’s for all it’s backroom mastery. It’s peanuts compared to the game as it matters and Russia will have to put it’s big boy pants on if truly wishes to remain a soverign nation otherwise let itself be fractured after Iran’s destruction and let those of us who try and pretend to give a fuck watch Sponge Bob in peace.
U$$ Liberty / Russian IL-20: Israel will walk away laughing as usual. Israel does it because Israel knows that, like the U$, no one has the courage to stop them. In this instance Russia may unleash Hezbollah or at least assist in weapons transfers, but I doubt it. I hope that Russia has learned not to enter a war beyond its borders unless Russia is willing to fight to win.
….Obvio, Andrei Martyanov trata de librar a Israel de toda culpa, Y la culpa recae sobre los Sirios y los Rusos. Ese es el discurso de los Atlantistas, El pentágono lo dijo minutos después de siniestro, la 5ª columna lo sigue repitiendo igualmente y según Ellos, las cosas “deben seguir igual”, como si no hubiese pasado nada….En otras agresiones hemos llegado a las mismas conclusiones, no es la primera vez, Se han hecho atentados terroristas en Suelo Ruso, exactamente en la estación del metro de Volvogrado….Y no paso nada..! …Al menos los daños y perdidas deben ser compensados por el regimen agresor, porque fue una agresión contra El país soberano de Siria….Se oculta este hecho con el asunto del avión y los 15 militares muertos, PERO FUE UNA AGRESIÓN MILITAR A SIRIA, como otras que se hacen mensualmente sistemáticamente…..De eso no hablan los “atlantistas” !….Como mínimo Israel debe pagar con dinero. :…Para que le vamos poniendo SERIEDAD A ESTO, :…..Que paguen indemnización a las familias de los militares muertos, que paguen por el avión 500 Millones de dólares….Y que paguen por los daños materiales ocasionados a Siria….Es lo menos que pueden hacer en el gobierno y ejercito Ruso…Expulsar al embajador sionista de Rusia….Y cierre total del espacio aéreo Sirio…..O de lo contrario seguirán haciendo lo mismo….Por dignidad y respetoa al los Ciudadanos Rusos, de paso investigar los traidores infiltrados en el gobierno, las empresas y la política…Sacar de allí a los oligarcas traicioneros que dieron información sobre la ruta de vuelo del avión, horarios y más detalles. Porque este acto terrorista contó con ayuda de informantes, desde adentro, todo fue planeado con anticipación…Alguien les esta ayudando….
Obvious, Andrei Martyanov tries to rid Israel of all guilt, And the blame falls on the Syrians and the Russians. That is the speech of the Atlantists, The pentagon said it minutes after sinister, the 5th column keeps repeating it equally and according to Them, things “must remain the same”, as if nothing had happened … In other aggressions we have reached the same conclusions, it is not the first time, terrorist attacks have been made in Russian soil, exactly in the subway station of Volvogrado … And nothing happened ..! … At least the damages and losses must be compensated by the aggressor regime, because it was an aggression against the sovereign country of Syria …. This fact is hidden with the issue of the plane and the 15 dead soldiers, BUT IT WAS A MILITARY AGGRESSION TO SYRIA, like others that are done systematically monthly … .. That is not what the “Atlanticists” are talking about … At least Israel must pay with money. : … So that we are going to put SERIOUSNESS TO THIS,: … That they pay compensation to the families of the dead military, that they pay for the plane 500 Million dollars …. And that they pay for the material damages caused to Syria … the least they can do in the Russian government and army … Expel the Russian Zionist Ambassador … And total closure of the Syrian airspace … ..Otherwise they will continue to do the same … For dignity and respect to the Russian Citizens, of step to investigate the traitors infiltrated in the government, business and politics … Take out the treacherous oligarchs who gave information on the flight route of the plane, schedules and more details. Because this terrorist act counted on the help of informants, from inside, everything was planned in advance … Someone is helping them.
Para que le vamos poniendo SERIEDAD A ESTO, :…..Que paguen indemnización a las familias de los militares muertos, que paguen por el avión 500 Millones de dólares….Y que paguen por los daños materiales ocasionados a Siria….Es lo menos que pueden hacer en el gobierno y ejercito Ruso…Expulsar al embajador sionista de Rusia….Y cierre total del espacio aéreo Sirio…..O de lo contrario seguirán haciendo lo mismo….Por dignidad y respetoa al los Ciudadanos Rusos, de paso investigar los traidores infiltrados en el gobierno, las empresas y la política…Sacar de allí a los oligarcas traicioneros que dieron información sobre la ruta de vuelo del avión, horarios y más detalles. Porque este acto terrorista contó con ayuda de informantes, desde adentro, todo fue planeado con anticipación…Alguien les esta ayudando.
So that we are putting SERIOUSNESS TO THIS,: … That they pay compensation to the families of the dead military, that they pay for the plane 500 Million dollars …. And that they pay for the material damage caused to Syria … .It is the least what can they do in the Russian government and army … Eject the Russian Zionist Ambassador … And total closure of the Syrian airspace … ..Otherwise they will continue to do the same … For dignity and respect to the Russian Citizens, of course the traitors infiltrated in the government, the companies and the politics … To remove from there the treacherous oligarchs who gave information about the flight route of the plane, schedules and more details. Because this terrorist act counted on the help of informants, from inside, everything was planned in advance … Someone is helping them.
Perception is everything to TPTB in the west. Reality does not even register with them.
This certainly can be perceived as ‘weakness’ on Putin’s part, as with all the previous incidents he has not responded to. The only result of inaction by Putin will be the encouragement of even more egregious behaviour by the bully west.
Smack the bully on the nose or spend your life grabbing your ankles. Simple choice. Of course, this assumes Putin is not one of ‘them’, just playing his role. More an more, this seems likely.
Putin should do this……Putin should do that…..
Thnking asymmetrically if VVP were to sell some S400’s and anti-ship missiles at peppercorn prices to its old friend Cuba, just to guarantee their independence you understand, then perhaps some people up the Potomac would sit up and take notice. Shoigu has stated the approach: revenge is a dish best eaten cold. Another Kalibr hitting another command bunker in Syria filled with Israeli intelligence assets would be tragic, would it not?
LOL. I was thinking something similar.
With the NAFTA dust up and tariffs, Canada should invite the Chinese and Russians to a meeting to discuss shifting trade alliances away from the USA. (they should anyway)
At the same time the Canadians should announce that they are considering letting the Chinese and Russians set up a few airbase and missile bases along the 49th, as a good will measure. After all, the USA has friends all around Russia and China bristling with war-stuff. Seems only fair.
The sound of heads exploding would be deafening in DC.