Two small newsitems have not received much attention recently, and yet they might be the signs of something big happening:
Poroshenko has fired the notorious Head of the equally notorious Security Service of Ukraine or SBU: Valentin Nalivaichenko.
Sergei Ivanov, the powerful Deputy Prime Minister of Russia has stated that the US and Russia have created a bilateral communications channel on the Ukraine run by Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, for the USA and Grigorii Karasin, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, for Russia. The official reason for that was “not to complicate the already delicate “Normandy-format”.
So on one hand, we have Kerry and Nuland who came to Russia and who, by all accounts, got nothing of what the asked for but who are now getting a “communications channel” while at the same time, the 100% USA-controlled Nalivaichenko, who is rumored to be an actual CIA agent recruited many years ago, is booted out by Poroshenko. Rumor also has it that Arsen Avakov, the Minister of Internal Affairs will be next to be kicked out.
There might be no connection here, but my guess is that there is.
The reason why Nalivaichenko was fired is not so much because of the various corruptions scandals he – and all other junta members – were involved in as much as it is Poroshenko’s attempt to place “his” men in all key (power) positions. That, in turn, shows that his regime is getting weaker, not stronger – hence the need to strengthen and consolidate.
I also believe that the Americans are fully aware of this process and this is why they now want a direct channel of communication with Russia: because they fully realize that the only two powers that matter in reality are the USA and Russia, especially now that events are getting out of control in Kiev.
One of the best Ukraine specialists out there, Ishchenko, is now saying that the US have concluded that the Ukraine is a total mess and that they are now trying to get out at the least possible cost. I tend to agree with this explanation, though I am not as confident as Ishchenko that we will see this political pullout play out this year already.
Because make no mistake: the 300 million dollars allocated by Congress to arm the Ukraine is a joke. A drop of water into a desert. It will change *nothing*. Most of it will be stolen and the rest will be wasted.
The expected Ukronazi attack on Novorussia has not happened either and while the rhetoric in Kiev is more bellicose than ever, and while the Ukronazi forces along the line of contact are constantly shelling Novorussia, no real, full scale, attack has happened. Could it be that the Ukronazis are truly afraid of the consequences of an always possible Novorussian counter-attack?
It is also becoming increasingly obvious that the US has failed to isolate Russia and that the Russia economy is doing way better than anybody, including the Kremlin, had expected.
So if the Ukronazi Ukraine cannot be used to mount a military attack on Novorussia with the goal of force Russia to intervene, and if the civil war in the Ukraine has failed to produce the kind of isolation and sanctions against Russia which Washington wanted – then what is the use of the Ukraine to Uncle Sam?
Yes, sure, there is the port of Odessa, and some industrial and natural resources which western corporation will be able to acquire for a fraction of its value, but these benefits pale in comparison with the immense costs of somehow tackling the huge economic, social and political problems of the Ukraine.
It will come to that sooner or later anyway. The USA made an unholy mess of Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and they always ended up getting out, at least politically. Why should it be different for the Ukraine?
I submit that if the US analysts came to the conclusion that there is not hope of forcing Russia to sent her forces into the Donbass then the Ukraine becomes useless. The chances of Russia doing so appear to be very close to zero right now. True, there is the very dangerous situation in Transnistria which might, really, force Russia to intervene, but for some reason the USA does not seem to be eager to trigger an immediate crisis. Could it be that the USA is holding Transnistria as a bargaining chip against Russia in a “you don’t make things too bad for us or else…” kind of strategy? Maybe. I honestly don’t know.
It will be interesting to see of Avakov get’s booted out next and how the various Ukronazi death-squads will react to the firing of their patrons in Kiev.
Good analysis as usual, but I fear the US plan bigger things for Transnistria, and the constant US-led military exercises (war preparations?) in E Europe and the Baltics signal to me that we are at the start of major confrontation, rather than moving away from it.
I really don’t see how Saker can interpret Poroshenko’s consolidation of power as a sign of weakness. Putin did the same when he took power in Russia, and the fact that the CIA man Nalyviachenko was made to bow out is further confirmation of American consent for the centralization of power in Poroshenko’s regime, not weakening. If you and everyone else diagnosed the factional divisions that existed within the regime since the coup as a sign of weakness, how can you then offer the same diagnosis when the opposite happens? Nearly every regime after a coup/revolution tightens its grip on power through consolidation and centralization, it is always a signature of its strengthening, rarely a weakness. Even Cassad and Murid acknowledge that this is a sure sign of the junta gaining strength and therefore bad for Russia, combine that with the ratcheting up of property seizures in France, Belgium and Austria, not to mention the intensification of NATO war preparations all along Russia’s western flank and there is no way you can conclude the Americans are backing off. Why would they when they clearly have the momentum and the initiative? Saker is really grasping at straws on this one, too much evidence to the contrary of your thesis.
Some points you miss out on:
a) The US/EU Axis must keep propping the Kiev Junta up. That is lots of money down the drain.
b) NATO is executing military drills all around Russia. This is just the “policy of tension” playing out. What will they do? Attempt a surprise nuclear strike on Russia? Try and provoke a conventional war and hope it does not turn into a nuclear one?
c) When will they attempt an all-out attack on Novorussia? Time goes by.
d) Dissenting voices are increasing in the EU. While not nearly enough to upset the anti-Russian consensus, they are still a problem, and western corporations as well as countries try to circumvent the sanctions.
e) There are also reports that Porky is trying to pass a law rendering the ouster of Yanukovich as unconstitutional. This is probably an effort by Porky to cut a deal with Russia.
f) Ukies are expecting mountains of euros/dollards from the Glorious Western Democracies, as well as Visa-free travel and a promise of eventual EU membership. The EU can provide nothing of those things.
e) There are also reports that Porky is trying to pass a law rendering the ouster of Yanukovich as unconstitutional. This is probably an effort by Porky to cut a deal with Russia.
I agree with most of what you say, but on that one I’m going to have to demand a source. If Porky does that, it means he’s acknowledging that he and his whole government are illegitimate under the Ukrainian constitution. I have great difficulty imagining that.
Same wording as the Sputnik story elsewhere on this thread.
It was a law to removed the TITLE OF PRESIDENT, which normally person is allowed to keep forever. It has nothing to do with actually removing him AS President. That was not done with any new law. He was forced to run away, his position became vacant, he was replaced pending an election as per the Constitution.
Remove the title from him, not him from the position. A lot of people misunderstood and didn’t read it correctly, including the Russian foreign affairs committee chairman. Pushkov. (Or maybe he’s just trolling Poroshenko, starting to learn the habit from Putin and Lavrov).
With the title go perks such as a state pension and a security team. I think Porkyshanko would definitely appreciate having a security detail after he ‘leaves’ office.
I read it this morning too at Sputnik.com:
What’s Eating Petro Poroshenko: Does President Fear He’ll Be Ousted Too? © Sputnik/ Nikolay Lazarenko
13:46 22.06.2015(updated 13:48 22.06.2015) Get short URL
Petro Poroshenko asked the Constitutional Court of Ukraine to declare the ousting of former President Viktor Yanukovych unconstitutional because he is afraid to share Yanukovych’s fate, Ukrainian politician Andriy Portnov said.’….
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150622/1023687694.html#ixzz3dpIvtbrc
Generals are fleeing Kiew to Donbas as well and take hundreds of their soldiers with them.
A daily view on Sputniks ,all news’ is quite informative.
I’ve read that too (I don’t remember the source).But I didn’t think it is meant for that reason.I think he would be saying, “yes,the ousting may have been illegal to begin with.But then we had elections,which I won.So now everything is legal again”.And it would discredit his opposition that had a part in the “illegal ousting”.While leaving him,who wasn’t an official in the first junta,in the clear.It would be a trick to consolidate his power even more.
As to the analysis,as some others say I’m not sure its a good sign or not.How could anyone accept Poroshenko as the leader of Ukraine after his crimes against Donbass.Maybe I’m foolish.But I can’t see people in Donbass accepting a Ukraine ruled by the very man busy murdering them as their fellow citizens.There are some strange things that go on in our World.But that one would take the forgiveness of a “Jesus Christ” to over look and forgive.And I don’t see anybody in Donbass with the forgiving ability of a Jesus Christ.
Your first point, EU having to prop up Kiev, overlooks the fact that the Americans alone spent hundreds of billions in Iraq and almost the same in Afghanistan to effect the Balkanization of the region. What they’ve been spending in Ukraine is infinitesimally miniscule in comparison to their previous adventures, it is therefore illogical to assume they’ll hesitate this time around when at stake is the total domination and subjugation of the entire central and Eastern European region right up to the borders of Russia ( and that’s just the modest expectations).
Your second point about the impotence of all the NATO war games reveals your misunderstanding of the nature of this strategy. The policy of tension is all that is necessary to prevent Russia from interfering in American domination of the space beyond Russia’s borders. They don’t have to attack at all to win, the goal is to contain and strangle Russia, the result is the same without the costs and unpredictability of an actual attack. Without a shot being fired, they have rapidly absorbed every state from the Russian border westward, including Ukraine- that’s the objective and all that is required.
Kiev has learned from this overall NATO strategy and practices it on a smaller scale in Donbass, they don’t attack because it is not necessary to attack while they still have internal problems and the Ukrainian state is still weak relative to Russia. It is more cost effective to strangle your enemy through siege warfare and indiscriminate artillery bombardment. Donbass returning to the Ukrainian fold is a dagger aimed at the heart of the junta, unless it is first pacified of its Russophile population, therefore Kiev is content with its current state of quarantine from the rest of Ukraine. They know they will be supported as a frontline state by the Americans at all costs as long as Russia remains a threat to U.S hegemony.
The rest of your comment about the dissenting voices in Ukraine and Europe is easily addressed by the militarization of Europe by NATO and the centralization of power in Poroshenko’s hands in Ukraine. Powerless dissent is no threat to militarized fascist states.
Great analysis. I am 100% in agreement with you.
I’ve grown tired of the head-in-the-sand analyses of those who support Russia against the empire.
Russia has mishandled the situation so many times… it’s been quite an education to follow all those blunders. Actually, I can’t believe it’s been so easy for the empire.
In the meantime, I swear some people out there would manage to turn a nuclear detonation in the heart of Moscow as some kind of great chess move in Putin’s “cunning grand master plan”.
Do you have a website or a blog?
No I don’t have a blog, just an interested observer and I appreciate your approval of my comment. Thanks buddy.
WrongAnalysis and Anonymous, aren’t you the same person ? I could bet you are. :-)
I do not think they want 2+ mil refugee from Ukie they got enough of them from North Africa….
How about both of you framing the question to suit your ‘answers’?
You are effectively arguing that because the opponent missed with the first punch, he is in a position of ‘strength’ when he gears up to throw a second. How about he misses second time round too? That would hardly indicate increased ‘strength’..
Russia remains in defense mode – it has not retaliated in a belligerent manner to US threats. The preference is matching
specific military threats with defensive responses.
On other levels, particularly economic, it uses a combination of retaliation – sanctions on imports – with subversion: the on-going advance to alternative economic structures/alliances. The country should be on its knees given the level of assault on so many fronts – but it isn’t.
NATO is in truth a fragile alliance and wildly unpopular in the occupied countries. It is heavily reliant on its equipment and a core of skilled personnel. But it has no real ‘heart’, which is essential to morale. It is very prone therefore to internal fracture/sabotage.
Lately, even the typically supine German political class is making alarmed noises (via Der Spiegel) at NATO nuclear plans for German soil. I hope NATO goes right ahead. It will be the straw that breaks the German camel’s back.
Porky is not gaining in popularity – he is losing. I believe his recent attempt to give the presidency constitutional protection from impeachment is a good indicator of uncertainty and anxiety. If if felt secure, it would not be an issue.
The removal of Nav is probably a CIA decision – to prevent him from gaining too much power, and replacing him with someone more manageable and less tainted. (Can’t be sure obviously, but it may have somethini to do with policy on Right Sector.) I don’t think it is a measure – good or bad – of Porky’s position. He is but a puppet. He made some peculiarly ‘fraternal’ noises recently about Russians, suggesting he is attempting to hedge his bets.
eimar clark, You say, “Lately, even the typically supine German political class is making alarmed noises (via Der Spiegel) at NATO nuclear plans for German soil. I hope NATO goes right ahead. It will be the straw that breaks the German camel’s back.”
I believe you are right. Too many educated Germans are not fooled by Western propaganda. They must be close to the point of overthrowing the suicidal course of allowing more nuclear weapons on German soil.
Latest polling shows Porky has 13% approval rating. I therefore think Saker is correct in calling his firing of Nalyviachenko a symptom of weakness, not strength– I think desperation. Nalyviachenko has only one power above him– US Special forces. Reportedly following this firing the “volunteer” (fazcist) forces began to return from the frontline to Kiev.
If there should be a coup by the overtly fascist forces I don’t believe it wd imm’y trigger a Russian invasion. Rather it wd normalize and solidify a counter-coup. Note this story: 6/12/15
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/06/ukrainian-communists-announced-creation.html United Left Opposition Party. Very Sound manifesto. Joaquin Flores
This is about the best takeover we can hope for.
“Lately, even the typically supine German political class is making alarmed noises (via Der Spiegel) at NATO nuclear plans for German soil. I hope NATO goes right ahead. It will be the straw that breaks the German camel’s back.”
Definitely so. The majority of Germans do not aim at any militarization of Germany and do not want US missiles,- beware any wirh nuclear warheads – on our soil! A new “Fulda gap” is not wanted here by anybody except a very few hysterical freaks.
If a proven MIC lobbyist like a one Ash Carter or a one Breedhate, by now a well known liar, would try, I assure you that all hell would break lose.
Germans want to live in peace and the majority of us does not see ANY reason WHY there shouldn´t be peace anymore. People are getting sick and tired of hearing about non-existant “russian aggression” from aggressive and often quite uneducated US military.
Germans are fully aware that Russians always were reliable partners until today.
But imperial (and todays) british politicians and Americans have betrayed in history most of their partners and whole populations.
whenever they could
We know that we are an occupied country 70 yrs after WWII and most people zealize by now that this status is ugly, getting uglier by the day and is bad for us (and Europe).
Oh, and BTW, there are no asset seizures as of now. More headlines than reality.
It was in the IBItimes yesterday even:
If you call a mess of Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Libya, I expect the worst in Ukraine, because the success of the US is chaos.
Still, I sincerely hope you’re wright.
My impression of the messes of the USA is that the middle east is far worse than Ukraine…even with all the suffering of Donbass. Am I right ?
Not sure you can make that assumption as I would guess that a lot of murders, rapes, etc, have not been reported. Certainly not in the West.
Yes, Ann, middle east is worse. Eg: Yemen has lost 4700 civilian dead in what? two months? Syria has lost a quarter million dead & I don’t know how many refugees.
Libya had free health care and education thru college for even more women than men. It provided every new married couple w a $25,000 interest-free loan to buy a home. Today the US has trashed Libya’s oil-development agreement w China, and the US controls only the oil of Libya cuz that’s all that’s valuable to them. Libya is now a chaos of refugees.
Iran has been forced into the Iraq/Syria wars because they will be the next to face destruction. The rate of what is happening is unprecidented.
Yes, you are right. The ME today has become a real hellhole. Courtesy of the US of A and their saudi pals, the champions of beheadings by a state: a record 100 headswere cut off since January 1st, 2015.
These are the favored allies of Washington D.C.
Things will get probably worse when the sunni-shia divide created by US interventions in various countries and ill intentions – divide and rule – comes into full swing and when isis and US created “moderate” fanatics go on growing in numbers. Curse those sick Yanks whose weapons suppies mostly land in the wrong hands..
And, the report is that Poroshenko has declared or agreed to the assessment that the removal of Yanukovich was illegal and illegitimate–who knows why he should agree to that? Does he want out of the job entirely, and to give the mess back to the one they tried to murder?
It’s explained several times on this article. The law they’re talking about was to take away the TITLE from the President, nothing about taking away the position. Huge difference. Maybe Poro wants to be known as President for life, too, which rather indicates he’s looking at not being the president soon.
Any thoughts about Poroshenko’s recognition that the removal of Yanukovych was unconstitutional? I didn’t see this coming (then again I am constantly surprised by this whole situation):
Also, do you think the crackdown on the Tornado battalion is the beginning of a larger purging of the more extremist groups within the armed forces, or were they just so completely out of control that it is a special case?
Guys guys guys. READ. (Sputnik should read, too, they got the wrong end of the stick first).
No law was made to kick out Yanukovich. They just scared him into running, remember?
The law in question was a law stripping him of the right to keep the title of President for the rest of his life.
Poro wants this declared unconstitutional. That would mean HE can’t be stripped of the title either, once he’s gone. Even if he ends up in The Hague he imagines.
Kat Kan: correct.
You said “They just scared him into running, remember?”, and above you said “He was forced to run away, his position became vacant, he was replaced pending an election as per the Constitution.”
That is not factually accurate to the best of my knowledge. Yanukovych was physically in Kharkiv, arriving at about 12:17 local time on Feb 22nd, and gave a TV interview where he said a coup was underway. The Rada voted on the motion to declare that he “abandoned” his post at 3:39 on Feb 22nd, while Yanukovch was in Kharkiv.
You are repeating the false western narrative that he “abandoned” his post while he was in the country’s 2nd largest city when the Rada voted to remove him, without complying with a single provision of the constitution.
Do you think Nuland is being disciplined or even constructively dismissed?
One day you’re the Queen of Sheba and the next you are scheduled to meet with deputy under-secretaries? That must smart. Not that it doesn’t look good on her.
LOL so true
I think they’re firing as much ammo as they can spare at the Donbass. It’s rationed.
It’s hard to back off from the people under fire and see it in proportion, but I was just reading that in 57 days of consecutive bombing during the blitz, when England’s population was less than Ukraine’s today, London lost 40,000 killed and a million houses.
It did not break them.
I hope that your assessment is right, Saker. But I fear that Nuland’s elevation to Secretary of State is more likely, than a decision by the United States to back out of Ukraine. Limited as I am by my own life’s experiences, I believe that the United States will double-down on its Ukrainian bet. . . . like it did in Vietnam in 1963.
I fear that Nuland’s elevation to Secretary of State
She is only a DEPUTY Secretary of State. Kerry is still in charge at Foggy Bottom.
Sorry, her official title is ASSISTANT Sec. of State
that could change though…Arthur Brina could very well have a point. There were alot of stories about Kerry’s broken leg….like he was ‘disappeared’ right after the 180 in Sochi.
Saker: doesn’t matter WHAT her title is – remember she is married to the neocon kagan, the co-founder of PNAC – she has the POWER. As any thinking person knows, cheney was the real president of the USA, bush was just the dumb figurehead.
“Bush was just the dumb figurehead”.
Yes he was, but not always, he was smart enough to reveal at his historical evening speech at 9/11 evening when all of the world was watching and between the words he has mentioned “If no Jews, we wouldn’t have any wars around the world”. His wife has mentioned in her book that they were attempts to poison them when they have visited Israel……….
If somebody here has the all original speech of Mr.Bush from 9/11 evening please post it
I anticipate that Nuland will become Secretary of State.
Both parties think that Kerry is too soft on Iran and too hard on Israel and not hard enough on Russia. Lately, as you have noted, Kerry has been giving signals that he wants out of Ukraine.
Nearly every presidential candidate is campaigning to get even tougher on Iran and Russia, more supportive of Israel, and deeper into Ukraine. The Republican leadership in Congress is doing the same.
Kerry will go and Nuland will rise. . . Just my guess, that’s all.
True and if Kerry makes it to the end of 0 term then hillabilly will put her friend nuland in the job. Hell even if a repug wins she’ll have the job.
I think your right there.I wrote once before that 2016 will be an election of “hate Russia”. The one showing the most hate will be the winner.Then we will have a few months of building up the MSM to war fervor before anything happens . Its the standard US “MO” its used in all the wars.I don’t see them changing it now.Unless of course something desperate takes place first.In a managed democracy like the US you have to “massage” public opinion first before you take actions.Hence the months of anti-Iraq stories as a build-up before the invasion.And the Tonkin Gulf fake before the real large scale involvement in Vietnam.I also remember the steady anti-Noreiga drumbeat before waking up to the Panama invasion.Who has forgotten the demonization for weeks of Serbia before the NATO bombardment And the same for Libya before NATO struck there.And before the first “Gulf War” began.Months of threats,ultimatums,and moving troops to “protect” Saudi Arabia.Which then “surprisingly” were used to attack the Iraqis and not to defend Saudi Arabia after all. Its important in the US to make it appear they have “no choice” but to fight a war. Depending on Russia’s strategy between now and then all that could change.If the NATO powers see Russia as determined and too strong for them they could change their plans.But if they see a weak Russia.Like a shark smelling blood in the water they will continue.
We have tu wait wat will do England.
Wouldn’t they need direct channels if they thought the situation could get out of hand? So a way to prevent nukes and such if and when certain things go down. Not saying that is the case, but one would think that more chaos in the Ukraine would harm Russia and help the US, so why should the US play nice? Also, US policy around the world is fairly obvious: create zones of chaos. Only the US and the US dollar should be strong.
The other question is whether the Kremlin is changing its foreign policy in places like Iran. Some, such as Thierry Meyssan, expect Iran to become somewhat pro-Western after a peace deal regarding Syria. We now see a movement in the Kremlin towards KSA. That surely seems important. For whatever reason, Russia has never been someone Iran could rely on. There are so many pro-Atlanticists in Moscow, plus all the pro-Israel or Zionist interests. And maybe Iran would be a competitor for oil and gas.
Finally, we need to reevaluate the US’s goals in the Ukraine. The Saker wrote them a year ago or so, and one imagines that continuing the current war would help in achieving some of them.
@ Paul II
“We now see a movement in the Kremlin towards KSA. That surely seems important.”
It´s not a movement coming from the Kremlin but from Saudi. Certainly for dubious reasons because imho these people cannot be trusted a bit.
Remember all therecent quite treacherous threats by Bandar?
Does Russia need the KSA? I can hardly imagine it.
Or do you assume that VVP intends to convince them to de-dollarize fast?
Good read: http://journal-neo.org/2015/06/19/saudis-to-offer-putin-a-deal-he-cant-refuse/
I hope that when Mr. Putin goes to visit Riyadh, all his body guards will be on highest alert.
@ Paul II
“We now see a movement in the Kremlin towards KSA. That surely seems important. For whatever reason, Russia has never been someone Iran could rely on. ”
But Russia has been working very hard to further a deal with Iran. This can be called reliable.
I recommend you read an interesting zerohedge piece. Their conclusions sound very sound for me.
“Who’s Allied With Whom?” Putin & The Saudi Caravan”
The worst thing in life is to underestimate others, isn´t it?
We now see a movement in the Kremlin towards KSA. That surely seems important. For whatever reason, Russia has never been someone Iran could rely on.
The most important thing to watch which will change everything is the US presidential election.
No — I mean the fight in Ukraine between Porky and the Nazis.
No — wait — it’s the Treaty with Iran and Grexit, or maybe the new trade deals and pipeline.
Uhh — changed my mind: it’s the crisis with Transnistria.
Oh — now I know — it’s that Donbas is getting ready to defend against the artillery attacks.
It’s the EU business people, and the results of the St. Petersburg economic conference — the whole financial world is shifting and the signs of an imperialist financial crash have crossed a threshold.
Oh, hell — I don’t know! It all too chaotic. And I doubt anyone else knows either. It’s all too chaotic and interdependent. Anything could happen.
(that was me — forgot to fill out the form…)
Remember it’s a global and perhaps even long term conflict between two sides that probably will go on untill one is winning (in one way or the other…), so a lot of things are happening all over, some on deeper levels and some on more superficial levels, and some things not very connected to this at all, and so on, so it probably often looks more confusing than it really is (especially considering the info-/disinfo.war and all the different analysis made by all of us with a computer, some knowledge and an interest in the subject). And I guess in a serious conflict situation like this, the folks with the most knowledge of what is going on, and plans in different stages, either don’t want to or can’t tell us for one or another reason, but look on the trajectory so far, I think that’s indicating some things rather strongly…
Nikolai Patrushev, the Security Council Secretary, had some things to say about the current world situation:
– From all you said is composed picture that the United States – is the world’s evil …
– It is determined by the United States, who is it, and who – no, and brought Russia into one of the world’s major threats. We are committed to work constructively with all. There are many positive examples of our cooperation with the Americans on global stability. We actively cooperate in combating terrorism and worked closely on the Syrian chemical dossier settlement of the Iranian nuclear program, view good prospects for cooperation in the Arctic. Unfortunately, Washington has unilaterally limited interaction with us under the false pretext of “Russian aggression in Ukraine.” The Americans declare their interest in ensuring the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. But Ukraine does not interest them. They are interested in Russia.
– In what sense?
– They would like very much that Russia was not at all. As the country.
– Because we have vast riches. The Americans think we own them illegally and unfairly, because, in their opinion, we do not use them the way they should enjoy. You probably remember the statement of former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, that Russia does not belong to the Far East or Siberia.
very interesting, thanks for the link.
I have asked for a translation of this article.
This ties in with camoron’s statement that he – on behalf of others – wants to see the EU from the Atlantic to the Urals…which just happens to be where western Russia is…I bet he didn’t have Putin’s approval to say that.
From some of the analysis I heard on several Russian sources, Washington is preparing to replace Porky with another puppet. Firing of Nalivaichenko (main CIA agent in Ukraine) may be part of this plan.
A snippet from June 18th on the Nav putsch:
Bribery in the RADA – sums ranging from 200,000 to 500,000€s suggests getting rid of Nav was a major priority for the CIA. I can’t think what Ukraine oligarch would stand to benefit from his ‘resignation’ or have that kind of money to buy the desired result. ( Of course, there’s always K’lo ..will he make headline news shortly? Because Yarosh is definitely making noises again (RT June 21st.)
It is also worth noting the deputy revelations were made public, indicating open ‘revolt’: the information, if Porky was perceived as ‘strong’ would otherwise have been leaked anonymously.
@Penelope – looks like a very interesting development. Agree totally it would be the ‘best case scenario.’
Another Soros article, in which he states the EU countries should go deeply into debt (´utilize their largely untapped triple-A status´) to subsidize Kiev.
But the article breathes despair that the house of cards is coming down:
´Given the deteriorating external reality, reform exhaustion in Ukraine is all the more likely if the EU persists on its current course. Radical reform of the gas sector may be derailed, a renewed financial crisis will be difficult to avoid, and the governing coalition is liable to lose popular support.
Indeed, in the worst-case scenario, the possibility of an armed insurrection – which has been openly discussed – cannot be excluded. There are more than 1.4 million internally displaced people in Ukraine today; more than two million Ukrainian refugees could flood Europe.´
Euro/Triple A countries left in 2015;
Austria – Germany – Luxembourg
And that old scumbag wants these 3 countries to pony up for his vile speculations?
Thanks, no thanks!
Hi Dear Saker !! Glad to see your fingers are working even if your ankle is still painful ?
And I see that your spelling is in top form !!! We all love your spelling d S.
“One of the best Ukraine specialists out there, Ishchenko, is now saying that the US have concluded that the Ukraine is a total mess and that they are now trying to get out at the least possible cost. I tend to agree with this explanation, though I am not as confident as Ishchenko that we will see this political pullout play out this year already.”
I think this happened back in January when the rebels advanced knowing that Kiev had no backing anymore (probably advised by Moscow).
The purpose of the sanctions is to put the blame on Russia while the US pretends it is not there.
“It is also becoming increasingly obvious that the US has failed to isolate Russia ”
Yes. All those instructions to shell civilians 30km from the Russian border failed to achieve their aim. Were they US instructions or did they only come with US encouragement – I guess we will never know. Certainly no American ever said stop killing civilians.
The refusal to engage directly by Moscow must have been very unpopular domestically, but was right – for the simple reason that Russian open engagement might lead to open US/Russia war which is precisely what Kiev wants. It required both great leadership and a a lotof leadership status. A less respected Russian president could not have held off.
“I submit that if the US analysts came to the conclusion that there is not hope of forcing Russia to sent her forces into the Donbass then the Ukraine becomes useless. ”
Yep – that is it exactly.
“It will be interesting to see of Avakov get’s booted out next and how the various Ukronazi death-squads will react to the firing of their patrons in Kiev.”
A crime rampage across Europe I guess. Fortunately EU countries have gun laws. But I’m pretty worried here in Warsaw.
The US now have Iraq to play with. Libya had a decade where it went from Pariah to one of the most respected countries in the region. Then it felt confident enough to give up its nuclear weapon development. Gadaffi was character slaughtered from that moment on and we know how he and Libya ended up (ISIS eventually). Now watch what the US media does to Iraq if they sign a weapons agreement.
After Kerry’s 4 hour meeting with Putin, he had a little “accident” and has not really been heard from since. Obama’s speech at the G7 negated everything that Kerry had appeared to have accomplished, and Nuland appears to be the person in charge of Ukraine now. I think this is reflected in this latest appointment.
I don’t think the neocons believe they can walk away from Ukraine, they have too much at stake there. But more importantly, they have not for a moment given up on starting a war with Russia. These people are so full of hubris that they believe their own propaganda.
It’s possible Kerry is on ‘gardening leave’.
They won´t get their war with Russia, it will be delayed.
Until the Dollar is crushed, and then it won´t be possible.
Thank you ,you have nailed properly
When someone is so ultimately hawkish as Victoria Nuland starts talking differently with Russian partners and instead of bringing cookies to Maidan, consumes Russian products as well – it makes a certain change in the atmosphere. She had a very good meeting with Russian Deputy FM Grigory Karasin in Germany, she made few reasonable statements.
And she made clear that the US will support Russia in efforts of holding fire in Donetsk and Lugansk. They are not interested in any escalation. That is what she emphasized over and over again.
Moscow is not interested in escalation as well. Due to some changes in the US Congress – there is progress. We can see their decision to stop any help to the Azov battalion.”
Until there is a new President, 2017, Obama will have his say with Iran and Russia.
His Iran policy is not personal or ideological. It is a product of the mind of Valerie Jarrett who controls the office of the President. She controls access to him and conditions his “thinking” on important issues, often ideological, sometimes geopolitical, limited, but masterful control of what she wants.
The Iranian policy is way out of the ordinary and does not fit any strategic goal. It simply is a device to counter Israeli influence inside the US government and in the ME. Jarrett has pushed Obama into this policy shift. His entire Security Council apparatus in the WH is geared for this, even though 90% of his staff is Jewish. They are for limiting Israel, particularly Netanyahu’s government.
As for Ukraine, Obama takes the affronts from Putin as deeply personal, the man-child that Obama is. He wants to hurt Putin more than to do strategic damage to Russia. However, he buys the proxy war, he buys using military threats and NATO advances, and loves the power of using sanctions. He loves sanctions as much as he loves drone strikes chosen by only him.
So two different policies with different goals, each with a different genesis.
Drawing Iran into the US orbit sounds easy. Capital investment from the West will rush into Teheran as soon as the sanctions are lifted. However, a Senate and most of House of Reps don’t like losing such a nice “enemy” to hate and rant about. And the Senate controls sanctions that are not UN-based. They will not lift them so easily. Not until well after the election.
Then there is Iran. Will it sell itself into the Western culture? Will it move that way, or will it do what it wants to do and become the regional power, perhaps, hegemon of the Gulf?
Iran would have no allies if it went to or with the West. It would have to be vassal. It would also never be able to think that it would not one day be overthrown by the West. And what will be the power and influence and threat from ISIS by then?
Or Iran can simply look eastward, join Eurasia, join SCO, be a sovereign among sovereigns, live its own life, express its own culture, share its own civilization (less the Shiaism) and be protected by China and Russia.
Neither policy seems to have much chance of leading to US success. Ukraine definitely will be over as soon as the US-Porky gambit attempts another large offensive. And Ukraine will be over fast if it attempts the blockade of Transnistria. I believe the think tanks supplying prognostications to the WH are telling Obama that Russia will win, Putin will get his way and the best Obama can do is keep a small threat by bombarding the cities and maintaining the sanctions while demonizing Putin in the media. Obama will like that as a fallback for the next year and half. He doesn’t lose Ukraine. Maybe the next President does, but he doesn’t.
The Iranian nuke deal is a win for Russia and China, not the US. But the dummies in Washington who want it see it as they get to shove shit in Tel Aviv’s face.
If you look at the two “hotspots”, you can see petty personality disorders rule the roost. That’s the essence of Obama. All his top people, super Cult members, are the same way. Susan Rice, Samantha Powers, Nuland, Kerry, their favorite generals, et al. Limited knowledge, failures time and again, whiners, incompetents and clowns. But dangerous.
Just look at the progress in business, military and strategic relationships Russia and China have made in the last year. Now compare to the US. Compare to EU.
Understanding Obama for what he is, and understanding the dynamic of the Cult of the Elites in power is critical. There are no experts or adults in the room. That is the only danger.
And that is why Russia acts to “deal” with them. If the kid with special needs has dangerous weapons in his room, you need to proceed cautiously. The retarded are in the armory.
Larchmonter445, you have managed to sum up this entire sorry, dragging until January 19, 2017 can I the Big O move into my house in Hawaii yet? Administration. Bravo sir, well done.
It’s weird — I have to keep reminding myself that the US election isn’t until November 2016 — a year &1/2 away — while this huge political fight is starting already, and will hit full stride already at the end of the summer.
The first term the president can’t do anything because he must be re-elected, and the second term he can’t do anything because he is a ‘lame duck’, and in between he can’t do things because he has to pay attention to the congressional elections, according to the prevailing narratives and pundits. Maybe it’s only the first few months of a term that he can even open his mouth with anything but trite platitudes (and then only with permission of his handlers)?
The first 100 days of his first term are when he has the best opportunity to get done whatever he considers to be the most important things. Obama chose Obamacare and Dodd-Frank banking regulations. Today, if he had a new beginning, he’d chose Climate Change enforcements and Open Borders-Amnesty.
He was out to destroy the core structures of the Economy and serve the Elite. He was very successful.
The travesty of electoral process and democratic legislation has come to corrupt moment in history.
One sign of the end of the Imperium is the internal contradictions in the democracy, and the highjacking of the Republic by the Elite using a Tyrannical Federal structures.
Rule of Law and the Constitutional verities are uprooted and cast to the winds.
Larch-your last 2 sentences summarize them best….I think under Mr. Putin Russians learned from history how to deal with West especially period 1917 and event Ribbentrop-Molotov pact. I do believe Mr. Putin/Lavrov know them better than Mrs. Jarett this is reason why they call them still – partners…even your very bad behaving kids you call them theirs first names ….not vicious spoiled brats….
It is pity West never learn from history -power of arms/monies is not everything…
Larchmonter 445 you said:
“The Iranian nuke deal is a win for Russia and China, not the US. But the dummies in Washington who want it see it as they get to shove shit in Tel Aviv’s face”.
IMO….Shoving shit in Tel AViVis’ face is always a great thing.
Well done, I have the same opinion. Hungarians has one very smart proverb
” with the stupid and arrogant people deal only by a gentle way “
Ukraine analysis: Saker, one can hope; however, Ukraine will not be abandoned in an election year with Hilary having to out macho the gung ho guys in order to get elected. The contacts are to keep things from really getting too out-of-bounds. if the crazies get too wild in Kiev, the US just might need Russian help especially if nuclear power plants are involved ( the Germans really do not want a radioactive Berlin) or if the crazies take over completely and Russia gets attacked directly or if the crazies try to bait the Russians in desperation some other way and this is not something the CIA operatives have Oked. Communications can be useful. The Germans probably insisted upon it. I have given up on the possibility of intelligent life in Washington, DC.
Watch what they do–not what they say.
One imagines that you are correct about communications. It is to avoid the worst.
re: DC and unipolarity
I believe some of Soros’s groups and his university in Eastern Europe give awards for good proposals and papers on ideas like how to break up Russia or how to “intelligently” maintain US dominance in the world. As the US can’t live with a world that they don’t dominate, what could DC do more intelligently? Perhaps they should have sent a large number of Blackwater types as tourists to the Crimea at the beginning; maybe the EU should have created a fake ten-year entrance plan for the Ukraine that would be abrogated once things went to Hades. Anyway, it is a challenge to intelligently rule the world.
Do you want to now how corruption and incompetence in Ukrainian military-industrail complex look like ? Check out this short report about Cougar:
Also look at “first class” equipment sent by UK to their ukronazis friends. Saxon can’t climb on small knoll:
I submit that if the US analysts came to the conclusion that there is not hope of forcing Russia to sent her forces into the Donbass then the Ukraine becomes useless. The chances of Russia doing so appear to be very close to zero right now. True, there is the very dangerous situation in Transnistria which might, really, force Russia to intervene, but for some reason the USA does not seem to be eager to trigger an immediate crisis.
I do not see any let up in the zio-media nor the zio-colonials regarding Russia. It’s all goebbels propaganda blitz, full steam ahead. The zionazis/nazis are simply changing gears. The Ukraine is to the zionazi/nazi freakshow a staging ground, similar to their use of Afghanistan. The sods cant get the Russians to intervene, go to plan b, keep needling the Russians, keep using the zionazi media to justify ZPC/NWO (zionazi/nazi) aggressive moves against their non-colonies.
Good backgrounder on Dmitry Rogozin:
His history in politics, and his post as deputy defense minister in charge of weapons development and Space.
One of Saker’s favorites.
One of Saker’s favorites.
I hope to see him succeed Putin when the time comes (-: as late as possible imho :-)
He’s made a mess of cleaning up the space program and naval ship building. The Progress launcher, and other failures, like the Vostochniy space center. Not one, nor two, but three subs gutted by fires in dry dock. He talks a good fight, but doesn’t fight one. An obvious incompetent by his record.
Maybe the problem with the space program is as simple as the fact that the financial system is controlled by the West. So VISA/Mastercard can show who has a gambling problem on trips to the West. Then bribe him to sabotage something and promise him a job in the West if things look dangerous. And Rogozin can’t do anything about the terrible corruption, as that is kind of the glue that holds the whole neoliberal system together.
hmm – seems nothing has changed http://stalingrad_1943.tripod.com/stalingrad/id19.html
Iran will not get the S-300 missile defense system.
Substitution with the Antey-2500 system. It has less range, does not threaten Israel and Saudi Arabia as much as the S-300PMU-1 system. It is a system in the arsenal of Venezuela and Egypt.
Agreement in negotiations seems to have smoothed out the Iranian lawsuit issue and gives Iran a system of defense they need.
It leaves Russia with a good situation with israel and Saudi Arabia (which i spooking to get a missile defense system also. Reportedly, the Saudis are asking for Iskander-e systems.
Russia’s deft handling of the issue shows clever diplomatic and military weapons sales sagacity.
It seems the original S-300 version is no longer being made, anyway. The Antsey is a more modern variant, with somewhat different specs especially in range, but is being mass produced and will be available quickly. Softly softly, and win-win.
the ussa congress won’t approve monies to UE because of the nazi battalions.
poroschenko needs the weapons.
poroschenko will move the nazis out of the public eye.
imo it’s as simple as that.
I cannot agree with your comments.
The AZ Empire plan will never change until they get their ultimate prize – Russia.
On the one hand, the USA will seek deals with Russia, but the deals are ultimately to destroy Russia with or without consent from its leaders.
I agree with a previous poster, the goal is to divide up the RF to turn it into a vassal state and to destroy the Slav restistance to the Anglo-Zionist Empire in much the same way Yugoslavia was destroyed, Palestine is being destroyed.
Ukraine is strategically important for the Empire from the viewpoint that the RF will be cut off from Europe, economically, in much the same way that the iron curtain was established.
Having made these points, I am no expert on geopolitics. All I know is that the USA is the undisputed king of global chaos, ruthlessness and pure evil.
Slavic nations has learned their lesson form the former Yugoslavia war, they are holding their hands as never before.
Finally they got it what the name of Empire means
Which Slavs are those? The ones I see (governments at least) are puppets to the Empire.Not one single Slav state has stood up with Russia (except Belarus).The closest any have come is Serbia,but not even they have declared they support Russia.
major defector comes to DPR
Major General Alexander Kolomiyets, former aide to Ukraine’s Defense Minister, has defected to DPR. He becomes the fourth major defection in the past week.
Two brothers from the SBU defected last week (one of them from an overseas posting) and a senior SBU officer from Kiev changed sides a few days ago (believed to be the source for some of the Cyberberkut leaks of government correspondence).
So, Poroshenko is consolidating thin air. The decent people are starting to change sides, which indicates 1: Poro is/was about to continue the purges already started or 2: he no longer has any way to enforce loyalty, and is planning a new offensive so bad nobody wants to lead it for him.
As Kolomiyets says in one of the interviews above, the professional soldiers can no longer stomach what is happening, and only Pravy Sector goons keep fighting.
“The military capability of the Ukrainian army is at a very low level, as is its morale: all officers and generals understand that the government’s actions are criminal, no one wants to fight. Who’s fighting? Only volunteers in nationalist bands. Discontent is brewing throughout the army. I’ll say one thing. I’d expect to see mutiny in the Ukrainian forces in the near future. The officers don’t want to follow commands to kill civilians. We’ll see it somewhere around the autumn. It all depends,” – Kolomiyets said.
Just as the previous actions against Kolomoyskyi this points to consolidation of power.
However, it is hard to say whether that means a strengthening of a weakening of the regime in Kiev.
Estonian leader laughed at Ukraine’s tactics of joining the EU:
“We won’t do reforms until you give us a promise [on membership] — it reminds me of a scene from some movie, when a robber runs into a bank, points the gun at his head and says ‘Give me money or I’ll shoot myself.’ This is the wrong way. To promise the collapse of your country if you aren’t invited [in the EU] is not efficient.”
The 10th annual GLOBSEC Global Security Forum is taking place in the Slovakian capital of Bratislava this weekend.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150621/1023662122.html#ixzz3dnDnghaI
“No law was made to kick out Yanukovich. They just scared him into running, remember?
The law in question was a law stripping him of the right to keep the title of President for the rest of his life. ”
Thanks. I realize that Yanukovich was obviously scared into running, but I thought this referred to the “impeachment” vote in the Rada.
Interested on your take on this;
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/content_link/6vf16pDghWs09p8vp5U93GreDhExJAk2W22vZVH0MCRELQktPzBJ0sulz02VUzHL from Bellingcat and the Atlantic Council. Rebuttal would be useful. Cheers.
bellingcat and the AC do NOT need rebutting…they need to be IGNORED, they are full of…
Brett, are you serious?
The link looks dead. Good thing too., Bellingcat needs no rebuttal, as such., It is enough to understand that bellingcat makes it up as he goes along, spinning fancy technical complications that nobody can follow (but are mistaken or plain wrong) trying to prove a point. Pure propaganda. Ignore forever.
Yankees never just “give up” and get away without a second destructive opcion on the table. They are too much arrogant for a feeling like: “we are wrong, lets get away”.
Poroshenko should be at Globsec in Bratislava the last weekend. But he wasn’t there.???
Saker, please could you intoduce the term “Natoists” in your articles?
When posting excellent useful stuff, please explain what it is. Very few people will just open a bare link.
For those who missed it earlier, this is the video and English transcript of the interview with the Donbass resident who SAW the SU-25 attack MH 17.
The problem with NATO forces is the same as with the Ukrainian Government military: as an ATTACKING force, they have to have RIGHT on their side, and in both cases, they do NOT. The Ukrainians fighting against the Donbass people have been indoctrinated – just like nazi troops were – into hating and/or believing that those whom they are sent to kill are Untermensch, and therefore can be ‘morally’ killed, i.e. they are not really killing humans. This is evil, and satanic, just like the nazi Government was.
What excuse would NATO soldiers have? They are supposed to be better informed, and KNOW that the fight against Russia/the Donbass is UNjustified, and therefore the attacking force is in the wrong, and hence morally bankrupt, without the foundation of fighting for a just cause, like on immoral quicksand. This undermines morale, motivation and reduces fighting effectiveness. Also, the defenders are on their land – Motherland – something which is very deep in the DNA of Russians, with knowledge of the losses in WW2, the highest in the world.
I think a very important factor in Ukraine that needs to be taken into consideration is the effect of the price increases which MUST lead to protests, then riots, which means that the troops in the Donbass WILL have to be withdrawn. Hopefully (most of) the volunteer battalions will remain behind to be annihilated. I give it MAX to end of June next year.
THe ukrainian Generalmajor Alexander Kolomijez has changed the sides in is now with Donezk. More infos on sputnik.
FWIW, I’ve voiced the idea on other forums that the Minsk agreements were buying time for Russian efforts to get to the Ukrainian officer corps. I have zero evidence to offer other than gut feel, and a projection of what my first strategy would be.
Whether due to a planned effort or not, I think we’ll see quite a bit of these defections over the coming months.
The fact that Poroshenko, a US agent for years, has fired Nalivaichenko (also a US agent for years) cannot by any rational mind be interpreted as an autonomous act by Poroshenko. Poroshenko cannot and does not make these kinds of decisionst. They are made for him, and they are given to him in the form of orders. How much more clear should that be?
“Yes, sure, there is the port of Odessa, and some industrial and natural resources which western corporation will be able to acquire for a fraction of its value, but these benefits pale in comparison with the immense costs of somehow tackling the huge economic, social and political problems of the Ukraine.”
–end of quote–
Let’s see. Ucraine, by surface, would be the largest country in Europe. It is very rich in natural resources and has a very low population density compared to most of Europe. To suggest that acquiring control of this treasure is small potatoes to a huge Corporatocracy like the US/EU, or that this corporatocracy would be daunted by the task of dealing with economic and social problems, when it has a perfect thugh regime at its disposal, is really something else. Ukraine will simply follow the path of the Baltic states where a large portion of the population was forced to leave. The difference is that it is a much larger and richer pie than the Baltic states. Any hint of social unrest is being handled with brutal expediency, and the regime’s grip on power is definitely much stronger now than it was at the start of this fiasco a year ago.
We keep hearing the same wishful thinking songs here. Interpreting everything as a sign of the impending “collapse” of a colonial nazi regime that is only getting stronger.
It really is sad.
Ukraine’s military has not shown any effectiveness against the adhoc forces of Novorussia how could they hope to achieve anything against the well trained and motivated Prednistrovians? As for Moldova, they have even less military capability than Ukraine. In past confrontations the Prednistrovians have shown they can more than handle any trouble Moldova might try and make. If the U.S. Is contemplating starting trouble on the West Bank of the Dneiper it is simply more proof just how out of touch with reality the neoco/neoliberal establishment in charge of the U.S. State Department really is.
similarly re Kosovo is a total mess-watched RT documentary the other day-NATO project ending in disaster-no work, nothing much there, everyone trying to emigrate to Germany, Austria, Switzerland……can’t NATO learn from the consequences they create?
BTW-not seen much more re claim in recent days for the millions of reward money for info re MH17 being handled by a lawyer for a claimant………hhmm…co=incidence?Any more news out there?
Here’s the link to the article in Russian-Insider on Sergey Shoigu. Minister of Defense.
No way Saker!!
I want my ‘boy’ Shoygu to inherit the mantle.
Though after his ‘undiplomatic’ tweet about Gadaffi’s terrible murder, Rogozin – whom I knew nothing about – went near the top of my chart-approval. He comes across as pretty genuine.
A friend once met Gadaffi – and his all-female bodyguard. She was working for an African head-of-state at the time. Said he was Africa’s greatest hope. Wildly popular in the MENA. Of course they – the colonials – had to exterminate him. (Can’t know for sure obviously, but I believe the American ambassador – unusually for an American, a talented Arabist who spoke the language fluently – in Bengazhi was more than a little sympatico to his ambitions for Africa. He too was killed.)
So the EU has extended the sanctions against Russia for six more months. No big news.
And this is good. We see how the sanctions are double-bladed. They are thrust toward Russia but are implanted in the thorax of European nations on the other end.
Italy is now the key nation to watch. Germany is hopeless. France has always surrendered its ass to save its “soul”. Sweden is Liberalism on meth, so they, though not NATO, want to be counted in on a street fight with Russia. They will need more than the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to win that fight.
And Greece, poor confused Greece, looks to have capitulated to their worst instincts again. Knowing that they can turn to Russia and/or China for anything they need, they choose to re-enter the basement dungeon and accept a caning on their naked back and haunches again.
So where will the fissure in Brussels begin? Maybe with Italy. Berlusconi may still have the power to break away from the stranglehold.
However, it seems that in the long run, nothing will change for another year or more. I think only when Putin clearly will stay and be re-elected again will Europe realize the Russia they hoped for will never happen. Then, they will be forced to change course. 2017, late, or in 2018. The sound they hear is the roar of the high speed trains from China. China is rolling up market after market while Europe lights satanic candles and chants for the collapse of Russia.
An intervening event that may change this linear projection in geopolitics could be a change in Brazil’s leadership which could lead to serious damage to the BRICS momentum. Also, Syria. If Assad is defeated, that alters a lot of geopolitical momentum. And then there always is the sudden, unthinkable event (an assassination of someone top level somewhere), another Fukishima, an ISIS event with a dirty weapon.
The Hegemon has many options to scramble the scene. Nothing goes straight for very long.
But what we have seen time and again, Putin is the World Leader, even if China is the more powerful nation. He is not just moves ahead, he is whole games ahead of everyone.
It’s the most entertaining drama in our lifetime.
Sanctions on Russia and Brer Rabbit..
Nooooo, Mr. Fox, please don’t throw me into the briar patch!
Of course RUssia had to say the sanctions were bad — but it wasn’t the effect but the moral hazard descending on the EU, which EU business is not at all pleased with. Putin put the double bind on them, feeding their schizophrenic disruption.
Greece awaits the Greek people to gather their torches and pitchforks.
How is he always ahead and got blindsided in Libya, Ukraine, Syria or Cuba?
How is he always ahead and got Russian assets frozen in Europe?
How is he always ahead when oil trades at $60 when he said he didn’t see how it could go below $80?
How is he always ahead when the Russian economy is contracting while it is expanding in the U.S.?
The economy is not expanding in the US — only the funny numbers are expanding.
But for Putin one needs remember that he is not in a game by itself, and he does not have an immense amount of power, to just just order things as he wishes, like a football player who can just waltz down the field with no opposing team. He has done amazingly well considering what he is up against, and is in far better position than he was, or was expected to be.
Good analysis, maybe it is early to say how things will evolve in Ukraine, all it is still very confusing.
In my personal opinion the politics of USA is simple they are trying to create a controlled Chaos in the main zones of the world, this is the most logical universal strategy when you are stronger and seek to gain control over your neighbors resources for that same reason they try to impede other rival countries in the world from growing powerful.
This is also how nature works i.e. If you see a tree in a forest (not in a romantic contemplative way), it becomes evident for a naturalist that the tree is obstructing the growing of other trees, plants and weeds around it, so it can grow taller and strong and extract all the resources of the land and the sun in its zone of influence. Every tree in a forest has its zone of influence. As a rule in nature as well as in history the more organized system disorganizes the more simple system in his vicinity.
Then the behavior of USA is not strange if they are using their intelligence to maintain and increase chaos in other weaker countries in order to maintain its predominance, then chaos is not a side effect and though unethical it is clearly intentional.
Russia has a great problem, she needs time to be ready to confront the west in a military, economical and informational ways, the west may have a momentary step back in Ukraine due the unexpected Russian strategy but the overall USA strategy would remain the same, so we can expect more turbulence in Russian borders (and not only there) in the near future.
Good article as usual, but I disagree with the main thrust of it. Why on earth would the Fourth Reich (FR) want to disengage from the “situation” in the Ukraine. What strategic objective of theirs would that satisfy. They aren’t “involved” in it at all. Russia, the Ukraine, the Donbass, and the EU are involved. The FR is able to be where they really like to be. They’re able to sit on the sidelines and not just stir the crap pool, they’ve stuck an outboard motor in it. What benefit is it of theirs to ramp things down. From the neo-cons point of view it’s a “no lose” situation. They think that if hostilities kick-off they’ll have few to no body bags of their own on the way back, Russia wouldn’t strike the continental US, it’d cause immense bitterness between Russia, the Baltic Nut-States and the EU for generations to come and it’d drain both the EU’s and Russia’s economies for a generation. Then the US would be able to ride to the rescue at the last minute and have to institute a new Marshall Plan, to the US’ immense benefit. It worked in WW2, why not again? If there’s no hot hostilities, Russia will still have to beef up its military even more, thus draining it’s economy. I’ve seen elsewhere the FR’s Ukraine strategy described as “a new Afghanistan” for Russia. So where’s the value in pulling out? It’s an almost a no/low cost, no lose situation.
The FR’s objective, as has been since the days of the proclamation of their “Manifest Destiny”, is global pre-eminence. The strategy being followed is the Wolfowitz/PNAC doctrine: build up US forces to provide “full-spectrum domination” to prevent any rivals emerging who could challenge their pre-eminence in the military, political or economic spheres. Putting a sword in the EU’s (extremely reluctant) hand and pointing it at Russia is too useful a tactic to back off from now.
This is most likely a Trojan Horse: offer an apparent gift prior to an assault. I think that M K Bhadrakumar’s excellent article here: http://is.gd/nxzqGf sums it up well. FR hubris won’t allow it to back down as the natives might get the idea that they too can revolt, and that would never do, there’s a whole world out there to rape and pillage for the benefit of the “Exceptional Countryl”, or at least for it’s owners.
The only possible reason they might have for ramping things down would be if they thought that by continuing to stir things up, it might rupture the “Western Consensus”, with countries breaking away from it and saying so out loud. What do you think the likelihood is of that? If they’d wanted to they could certainly have done so long before things heated up to the current level.
Replying to myself, this seems to back up my view: http://is.gd/eui4lZ . The usual type of fetid, hyprocritical neo-con double-speak:
“Carter also criticized recent comments by President Putin that Russia would target its military forces against any “threats” it faces, saying that such behavior is ‘inappropriate’”.
Inappropriate my ass, Russia should be emphasisng who the threat really is and where those missiles are pointed at.
The only possible ray of hope was this article: http://is.gd/bPtg2m , though I’m skeptical about it to some extent. I’ll only believe it when the Ukrainian army turns round and marches on Kiev. It’s a pity that they didn’t do so after Debaltsevo. That really would be the game-breaker and would signal that it’s game over for the Fourth Reich.
This article speculates on what the outcome of the clog dance performed by the bureaucrats of the upper echelons of the three governments involved. But what about the Ukrainians themselves? They are under constant duress, not knowing what daily terror awaits them; what will become of their lives; how will they feed their families; what is the economic future of the country, etc. President Putin said it’s up to Ukrainians to decide their fate as well as the Syrians for their own country.
So what are the western Ukrainians going to do? Are they organizing an armed resistance to Kiev or do they support Poroshenko? Is it going to be a civil war waged between the peoples of the west versus the east or is it just between Kiev and the eastern regions who seek autonomy from Poroshenko’s regime? We need to hear from the common man and woman in the western part of the Ukraine. I would like to know what they think.
The Empire may be attempting another “color revolution” in Armenia right now.Crowds are protesting electric rates hikes going up in “August”.The President agreed to meet with them if they pick 5 of their number to meet him.But they refused and said they were going to continue to march on the Palace.The police have said they will use force if the crowd disobey’s police orders.If this is a Empire color revolution. Hopefully the President won’t act like Yanukovich, but will crush it quickly and completely from the start.
Apparently on uk bbc 2 newsnight prog tonight is an interview withYanokovich how Putin dealt with his evacuation etc might be interesting…..
Evil bi- ch nuland is someone who Russia even considers eoth talking to ?
Rusdia really is desperate and loser when she talks to one who has destabilized snd killed her neighbours.
Russians always talk to theirs enemies because with personal contact smart politician can evaluate opposite side… and it is not only body language, voice ,total appearance, manners etc…I seen first meeting Obama/Mr. Putin and it say it all with whom Mr. Putin have to deal…
A move to peace? Naw, The real policy calls for war in the hopes it will stave off economic collapse. Its 2008 all over again but this time there are no policy options available. If there’s another big war and the US is the last man standing they will get another 50 years on top.