The newer Saker Community Translations team recently uploaded videos to BitChute with hard subtitles. If problems occur with making the below embedded video full-screen, go to this link: https://www.bitchute.com/video/haHLJB79FsvN/
Yuri Podolyaka is an analyst who recently had his channel terminated on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSQSxUJb4zH1SEpzNerSLLg) There is an English dubbed unofficial channel version made by one of his subscribers: (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCY2z16SQZAUlHBxPelmh-Wg/about) He can also be found on VK (https://vk.com/id291496944) and Telegram (https://t.me/informdefense)
The interviewer is Svetlana Pikta, she is a Russian-born journalist and blogger who lived for 20 years in Ukraine, but her family was poisoned for half a year in Kiev and threatened by Svoboda party neo-Nazis. See this machine-translated Sputnik article for more details.
Transnistria: Why Is This Conflict ‘Unfrozen’ Right Now?
Great interview and perspectives.
This is definitely not a cake walk for Russia.
Not sure what this (IIRC) means, within the context that “solving” the situation in the Donbass will not be rapid:
“Within a week there will be no shelling in Donetsk.”
He’s talked a bit about this in his previous videos, so, from them, my take (super happy to be corrected if I’m wrong, this is my interpretation drawing from many of his videos) would be that:
– He now believes the Donbass offensive is now starting to break AFU units and will succeed.
– ‘Solving’ means both the military victory, demining, restoring basic infrastructure, and producing enough civilian administrative structures that have aid and law and order capacity sufficient for the civilian needs so that the majority of combat troops can really be ‘freed’ from the area.
– He has previously (especially a couple weeks ago, he was on this for several videos in a row) criticized the Russians for being slow in setting up territorial administrations and helping certain needs of the civilian populace.
– As we see in the last couple weeks, these are being set up, pensions are starting to be paid etc. But this process is slow (amazingly fast for what is being accomplished now), but if Russia wins and simply keeps the front moving, there are risks for desperation, lawlessness etc.
Restoration of these kinds of civilian infrastructure improvements are very, very important.
And, if the statement means that the AFU will run out of shells, that is good news, too.
They have a lack off artillery shells. They main amo storage has been taken.
“Within a week there will be no shelling in Donetsk.”
Within a week letting the dogs of WAR run around…THAT is the most disturbing situation to me. Even considering the Mockva. I know. I know. There is no way – but the hard way.
I would move heaven and earth to stop the shelling/incoming. I would nuke Kiev.
One more shell – this was Kiev for you.
Second one – Lemberg
Hey! Mah polish broz – take and control all you think you can – but be ready to be swindled. You have been warned. Not by me.
I truly understand how frustrating this is, but let’s not advocate the use of nuclear arms.
I’ll leave this as a warning that I will not publish any posts calling for the use of nukes.
I am sorry doodes.
What I have said was for frustration of not being there already.
Do what you can, when and where.
One wonders what could trigger off Article 51 preventative full engagement by Russia to protect PMR….ukrops amassing moving to the border(considering experience of their plans to take Donbass)…. or some actual action by ukrops within PMR whether troops or shelling. There still seems to be considerations that Russia will continue to attack railway electrical infrastructure and some bridges. Can I suppose that Russia would see ukrops amass near PMR then blow bridges etc so they cannot retreat but be holed up kettled to face missiles and a seaborne beach landing avoiding Odessa….there is still some Russian navy not so far off….are their still Russian airforce and some troops still substantially available in Crimean bases for such a possibility?
Could planes in Syria become more involved in this region too…and is it possible to fire missiles at the Ukraine from the east Med fleet?
He really reminds me of Give. RIP
This is a fascinating analysis. But who is Podolyaka?
Ukranian gentleman, left after 2014 for Russia. youtuber.
Direct link please.
or embedded link, which fills the browser tab:
He gives one or two battlefield updates daily. They are in Russian, but I was using the often problematic auto translate feature on Youtube. Youtube keeps trying to knock him off, but other tubers keep disseminating his telegram (no autotranslate) on various channels. One English subtitled Youtube channel which appears a few hours after his telegram updates is MyCartoon TV. I subscribed to that, and so far Youtube allows that channel.
Superb. Just superb. Thank you so much. Translations were perfect also.
Yuri is my favorite military spokesman.
Thank you for this and the clear translation.
“…obvious that the Kyiv regime has been written off”
He may be right but I don’t think so. It’s a fair charge from him, even though they believe all we hear them say on TV, so it is not that it has been “written off” already. Making it costlier for Russia does not accomplish anything clear or coherent. The glory of victory is still glory. The dead become heroes for the victor and they might even make him more determined for the future. The truth is that helping a losing side is a waste of money and reputation too – what else? That’s why you hear all the time that Ukraine is winning and Russia is not only losing but showing its military unpreparedness.
They say so because it’s not that it’s “been written off”. They are truly not accepting that Ukraine is losing and Russia winning and that Russia can only win because it is so much more powerful and so close to its home; these elementary things are not accepted yet; they are known but they have been buried so to speak. Go figure. Would they eventually write it off like he says? Not from strategy, maybe from frustration or impotence. In reality, if they could figure it, they would much rather negotiate an outcome that is less terrible. This gentleman sees men with a clear view of things, but these men are as confused as they look and sound.
People and history books tell us that Germany triggerd WW2 invading eastward into Poland . (The second part of Polands invasion which started at Sep.16 from the eastern side is normally told in much smaller letters)
But would it be an Irony of history if WW3 this time is triggerd by a Polish invasion eastward?
Also an Irony is that one of the quarrels may be again the only quarrel point beween Molotov and Ribbentrop , which was : “Who will have Bessarabia” (Today Transnistria ) .
History never repeats itself , but it rhymes beautyfully. (Mark Twain)
In reality, Transnistria was never historically part of Bessarabia. The merger of the regions East of the Dniestr with Moldavia proper was a Bolshevik artifact.
Cunctator: Thank you for the clarification. Everyday I learn something new.
For some time now Wiki has been rewriting history. It is nothing but a propaganda tool.
> The second part of Polands invasion which started at Sep.16 from the eastern side
You mean the liberation of western Bielorussia?
What is not even in “small letters” but completely untold in western history books is how those territories were not polish at all. Poland took advantage of the Russian civil war not only to take independence (that is fair enough) but to annex lands inhabited by Bielorussians and Lithuanians (wonder if Lithuania want to go full in the ditching of its Soviet history, as Ukraine did, forgetting it was the Soviet Union that give Lithuania it’s current borders).
“You mean the liberation of western Bielorussia?”
Good point ! Never forget 1920-1921.
Polish borders of the last 300 Years are an own topic of discussion to have with a good bottle of wine in front.
Independently , my opinion is that redesigning the european borders post 1945 is a pandoras box which can have fatal consecuences if opened.
In I939 the Soviet Union got back the land that was given to Poland by the Treaty of Riga of March 18,1921, which former Tsarist/Soviet land in its turn was east of the by the British government proposed Soviet-Polish boundary, the Lord Curzon Line, of December 1919.
That IS a factoid people avoid.
Look at this map.
What avenues for color revolutions are there to b exploited? With a hungarian jew named soros györgy still alive and kicking?
I have been known in my circles to favor the recently deceased Z – for Zhirinovskij.
I miss him so. I do.
” but to annex lands inhabited by Bielorussians and Lithuanians ”
When was Lithuania ever Russian ? How about Estonia ? How long has Russia occupied Chechnya ? Now, how long has Poland occupied some of the lands you speak about ?
You may be interested in this. I thought I knew that history, but I was literally BLOWN AWAY by this:
The War That Had Many Fathers – Gerd Schultze-Rhonhof
And the scary thing is, if you watch the whole thing, there are so many similarities between 1939 Poland and 2022 Ukraine. It is truly frightening. IMHO
Rhonhof also goes into the specific timeline of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (it really matters) and discovered that no Germans were involved in assembling the “Official German War Records”… they were all assembled by the victorious powers.
Hi Rokossovsky !
I have read the book from Schultze-Rohnhof . Really interisting the background he transmits.
As the israeli general said.: “In a war never ask who fired the first shot , ask what happened before the first shot was fired.”
— Fix the title: it’s Yuriy, not Yriy.
— I don’t think Moldova wants Transnistria at all. TYThe strip is more trouble than it is worth. If it gets involved with its puny contribution it will be only because it is forced to do so by OTAN. They have little to give except for some uniforms to offer to the Romanian soldiers.
— It’s unclear how involved Romania will be. Its president, nicknamed the cupboard for his size and low IQ, has allowed two US military bases to be installed in Romania like two bulls’ eyes painted on it with an inscription in Russian that says “In case of fire break glass here.”
— If it is time to “unfreeze conflicts,” maybe the Serbs would like to “unfreeze Kosovo.
Ooopps! Thanks – fixed!
I have been following Yuri since the start of SMO and have seen his name spelt in different ways: Iiury, Yuri, Yuriy…. There is no exactitude in translation of some names from one language to another, in my view. “Oops” not necessary amarynth! Why not ask Mr. Podolyaka?
It’s not the ending that needed correction because that is merely dependent on how you render in the Latin alphabet the long and short “i” in Russian. But the “u” at the beginning, before “r,” cannot be absent or it causes you to mispronounce the name
I think the US will try to do anything it can to make this war continue as in Syria and causing trouble. I believe without the US’s intervention the war in Syria would have been over by now. So causing trouble in Transnistria and Moldava through Roumania at this time would cause much trouble for Russia. There are Russian peace keepers in Transnistria. I would imagine Russia would like to settle Donbas and then settle Odessa on its own timetable. A Roumanian attack through Moldava on Transnistria would bring up Russian troops fighting a Nato members troops with the all the mess that would cause. Exactly what some in the West want. More confusion, more chaos.
Its clear now that USA will prop up “Zelensky” regime with $ and weapons. Unless Ukie factions remove him this is how the future is set.
Frankly its looking like a strike on “nato” assets of some sort will occur, certainly within Ukie, if not also some stupid states like POL and BUL.
A very good and timely interview, giving lots of food for thought. I like this guy. He reminds me of a friend of mine.
It looks like Poland is poised to invade Western Ukraine, under the pretext of “historical re-unification” :
Funny how Uncle Scam supports this re-unification, but condemns Novorossia/Russia, Serbia/Kosovo, or China/Taiwan re-unification wishes as “aggressive territorial expansionism.”
That said, I wonder if the various Ukrainian nazis would fight harder against the Russians, or the Polish? Better yet, if/when the Poles invade Western Ukraine, would the Russian military :
a) attack both sides
b) stay neutral
c) openly “bury the hatchet” with the Zelensky regime and ally against Poland?
According to the thinking of Yuriy and others, Russia would not interfere.
That seems logical.
As Yuriy points out, keep eyes on ball. Don’t get distracted.
Russia’s main goal is to denazify the Ukraine.
He states that the Poles are even more obsessed with this than the Russians and do an even better job!
If that is the case, then the Poles would kind of end up being proxies for Russia . . .
<b. Russia’s main goal is to denazify the Ukraine […] the Poles are even more obsessed with this than the Russians and do an even better job!
In other words, get the Poles to do Russia’s dirty work. Sounds great in theory; let’s see if NATO actually crushes its Nazi proxies, or will NATO fight them the way NATO fought its ISIS proxies.
I do not have an impression that Poland has any interest in denazifying Ukraine. Following what is being spoken in Poland about this war I am astonished how much good press the Ukrainian extreme right wing/ nazi organizations have in Poland, considering Polish/Ukrainian mutual history.
It seems history is being whitewashed rapidly and the real history of relations between Poland and Ukraine is not as well known or accurately taught in Poland anyway.
In addition to the above it needs to be remembered that Poland is basically acting on orders from Washington. There is no other country in Europe, perhaps with exception of UK that is so “friendly” and/or dependent on US. Therefore it is not quite what Poles want to do in Ukraine, but what they are going to be ordered to do by US.
You’re right, even here in Italy we have historically anti-fascist parties which are rallying in favour of Ukrainian nationalists…
Yes, there is another Poland-like US-dependant country in continental Europe: it’s called Denmark.
It should be quite obvious that the Polish so-called plan to move into Western Ukraine is nothing more and nothing less than devious NATO planning to get their troops and weapons into Ukraine to kill Russians. This is a strategic risk to Russia. Russia understands that very well, therefore there is no question how it will respond – it will instantly and devastatingly destroy the invaders; and conceivably go further by using it as an excuse to destroy NATO assets in Poland to make sure the lesson is learnt. As President Putin recently emphasised, external forces should not interfere and create strategic risks to Russia, or Russia will instantly respond.
The idea that Russia will tolerate an uninvited Polish invasion of Western Ukrain is the most absurd fantasy.
What gets interesting, though, is the effect of this on Ukrainians. If Poland invades Ukraine, and Russia hits Poland … viewed from the perspective of any individual Ukrainian, no matter how that person responds (supports Poland, supports Russia hitting Poland, or does nothing), he risks being branded as a traiter by elements of the Kiev regime.
Poland reclaiming the western part of urkaine will be a poison pill for it, like the partition of Poland was for Russia when it introduced a significant number of jews into the Russian empire, which before that didn’t even have them. Russian historians today understand that poison pill Russia swallowed back in the late 18th century.
Most Poles today don’t really want that part back since there are virtually no Poles left there anymore, and the area is saturated with dangerous banderites. Plus, having a large ukrainian minority with suspect motives within Poland is a security threat. Poland after WW2 was gifted something very precious-borders without any significant numbers of minorities. Now, someone wants this ideal situation to be reversed, for the worse.
” Now, someone wants this ideal situation to be reversed, for the worse. ”
I wonder who ?
Who hates Poles, Russians, and Slavs in general with a passion ? Who thinks a large part of the Ukraine and some parts of Russia were their lands ? Who leads the US by the nose ? There’s your answer.
«Poland after WW2 was gifted something very precious-borders without any significant numbers of minorities»
There was a large german minority in eastern Prussia, Silesia and Pomerania, but thanks to “proactive” polish policies soon there was no such minority anymore; those germans were relocated westward or to a restful afterlife. Such is the lot of the vanquished.
When the USSR moved southern Ruthenia from Poland to the ukrainian SSR and northern Ruthenia to the belarussian SSR, no such “proactive” policies were used, so a large ruthenian minority remained within the two SSRs, and that is the “prometheist” root of the “color revolutions” in Belarus (attempted) and Ukraine (successful).
“…who do you expect to see as winners except for the Russian federation?
He replies that it will be the neighbors who want a piece of Ukraine they say it’s theirs. With regard to Poland’s piece, he says that if he were Russia he would not intervene because Poland would be becoming “a partner of Russia in this matter”, the implication being that Russia also takes its own pieces. Romania, Hungary and maybe Slovakia, too, will join in this feast to take the pieces they want. Such a scenario is not well-thought out for two reasons that I can think of:
1) No SMO is conducted for others…Putin, Lavrov, etc., are not and don’t want to be peons for Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
2) This feast does not happen even if Russia loses, because the West is with Ukraine now and will not distribute the pieces of Ukraine to other neighbors then.
Svetlana Picta then says “let’s say these are all NATO countries…”
He responds that NATO would be there sooner or later anyway. It’s an odd answer, but things get odd if you ignore point 1).
A good interview, thank you.
Bravo, thanks for this, Amarynth/the Vineyard. A very interesting interview indeed.
Yes, the Ukraine, in its current form, will cease to exist. Russia made that pretty clear some time ago, before SMO, that the Ukraine faced the risk of losing its statehood should in it continue its aggression in the Donbass.
Russia will not intervene should Poland move into the western Ukraine, I don’t think. Why should it? As Yuri Podolyoka says, the Poles will carry out a more thorough de-Nazification in western Ukraine. Russia will do better to consolidate its gains in the east and south of the Ukraine.
Moldova/Transnistria is a ‘new’ conundrum to us but I trust the Russians have wargamed this very complicated scenario a long time ago. Moldova is a member of the CIS, is trying to keep a distance from the Ukrainian conflict but Moldova is not Turkey or India — it is a small country caught between a rock and a hard place; Russia recognises this, I believe. Romania poses a bigger potential ‘threat’ and Russia obviously will take into account Romania’s intentions vis-a-vis Moldova/Transnistria. However the situation unfolds, I have no doubt that any harm inflicted on RF forces in Transnistria — and I believe Vladimir Putin alluded to this possibilty in his speech to the RF Lawmakers’ Council (speech published at the Vineyard a few days ago) — will be met with a ‘lightning fast’ response from Russia.
I’ve been thinking (yes it hurts ;)) about a possible end-game scenario to this conflict, and that is the Korean scenario — a division of the Ukraine between RF and the West, spheres of influence if you like. A certain segment will be demilitarised and each will then lead their own lives and will deal with each other on a transactional basis. Unlikely to materialise but with realpolitik, who knows.
You are right. Romania now is a bigger threath, and less expected one.
Nothing like the `stan.
You are playing on the home-field having conquered it.
Time is on your side here – since even the most arduent RESIDENT shall prefer it to Mariupol…RIP:
At which time politics may enter…
I hope, that Donbass East of the Ukranian Arms Forces listens.
I dont want to see them guys…gone.
You fought. You are brave. You tried.
Now…lay down Your arms. It is that time.
Your big bro is telling you how to play this game.
You are like 10 years old. He is like 500?
Get real. and he is a brother. He loves ya.
Can`t see why…friggin fam…nothing makes sense…
If I had any friends he/she/they would probably sound like Yuriy.
However, nope, I’m all alone, surrounded in a Russian type Donbass cauldron configuration . . . . . by imbeciles . . . who despite falling asleep with a firm grip on their smartphones, like an additional limb, seemingly learn nothing. Refuse to or are too lazy to find alternative sources of credible news, get excited sending pics of their restaurant side-orders to the tiktok world, are consumed by the latest rejuvenative cosmetic face, body and hair products or are itching for the next woke celebrity attack.
I must admit I’ve gotten to the stage where I would welcome the bomb, just to observe the ensuing panic. You might say, shut up, who in their right mind would welcome Mr Kinzhal and friends. Well watching BoJo and friends being dug out from under the rubble of the House of Commons, like when the IRA bombed the Brighton Conservative Party’s hotel in 1984, this is the kind of reality check we here in Europe desperately need.
The scum running Europe have sold out to Uncle Satan at our expense.
Indeed. Well stated.
From pro-Russian Telegram. An idea that Russia needs to listen to before things get worse.It’s unbelievable that they haven’t done these things already:
Communicated with a participant in our military operation. A person with serious combat experience. Now a volunteer. In his former life he wore epaulettes.
Here is his opinion on some aspects of what is happening.
“I would like that at the top, where they make decisions, they finally think about the urgent.
Namely, about those measures that are necessary in the same way as the prudent and balanced grinding of the AFU groups on the main fronts: about the front in the already “deep rear”.
Here, on the territory of the Zaporozhye region, a bridge was torn down, in Kherson, suddenly, “for unknown reasons,” thickets of reeds caught fire, the fire spread to the private sector, periodically something similar happens on the border of the Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk regions (or even on their territory). What does this say?
That it is time to begin to understand that we live in a country at war, that it is time to untie the hands of the special forces of the VNG to conduct reconnaissance and search activities and use them to the fullest (and not just to protect columns and objects).
It is time to intensively and on a large scale, and not to carry out special operational-search activities by the FSB, it is time to guard bridges and important objects (it is not necessary to equip VOPs next to them, there are also less expensive, but very effective methods).
It’s time to recall the experience of creating security lanes at the border (5 kilometers) and moto-maneuverable groups of border guards and behind the tape, it’s time to strengthen the security of military camps, houses of officers and military units, and not start patrols-troikas “for show” .
Wake up, in general, it’s time for the commanders and chiefs of different ranks, which have not yet reached.
From myself I will add on moto-maneuverable groups. During the war in Afghanistan in 79-89, the Soviet border guards acted just like that. Detachments of the Border Troops of the KGB of the USSR entered the adjacent territory to a depth of 30 kilometers in order to eliminate potential threats. And in general, few people know that the last Soviet soldiers who left Afghanistan were the special forces that ensured the exit of the columns, and just the border guards. who controlled the area along the Pyanj.
Actually now the situation is not much different. Threats are available. Ukraine is gradually turning into Afghanistan. Therefore, it’s time to start cleaning up the borderlands.
Not to mention the cleansing of the bandit underground in the Kherson region. Since they have come, since the flag has been raised, it is necessary to build a safe life.
What an analysis, thank you. He is Sharp like a quality knife. I found this channel 7 weeks ago and since that became almost a daily reader. I am happy to hear the truth and otheropinions, which are not found In West MSM and other bs. I appreciate very much your work.
Many agree with Yuri Poldolyaka in this interview.
I quote Easy Stand:
“I’ve been thinking […] about a possible end-game scenario to this conflict, and that is the Korean scenario — a division of the Ukraine between RF and the West, spheres of influence if you like. A certain segment will be demilitarised and each will then lead their own lives and will deal with each other on a transactional basis. Unlikely to materialise but with realpolitik, who knows.”
Putin described the historical connection between Ukraine and Russia in his February 25 speech. “Ukraine” is Russian for him. In his speech, Ukraine does not represent a future Russia, Romania, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia too; “Ukraine” is not only the few regions that Podolyaka says should hold a referendum to join Russia. Podolyaka accepts that the rest of Ukraine will become parts of those countries and therefore NATO territory:
“…in the rest we understand that sooner or later, and sooner rather than later, there would be NATO bases in Ukraine.”
President Putin might fall off his chair if that is what fate has in store. When both before and after the speech he said Ukraine could “lose its statehood”, this could not mean that it will lose it to Russia, Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia, because that would mean the SMO is waged to grant to NATO the prize of Ukraine. The SMO is not being fought to grant NATO an expansion into Ukraine, only this time through Slovakia, Poland, Romania, and Hungary. Wouldn’t this be a surprising and shocking result for Russians in Russia, let alone for the Ukrainians themselves? By the way, Zelensky said to Romania the other day that there was no chance of war between them:
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday thanked Romania for its aid to his country, which has been facing a major Russian military invasion for several days. “I am grateful to Romania for its significant contribution to our country’s defence capabilities.”
Mr. Podolyaka looks too sure of his conclusions. For analysis, all hinges on a self-critical review of conclusions which is the bread and butter of analysis. To conclude, I restate my points 1) and 2) because, whether publicly or privately, points like 1) and 2) are necessary to contest before such conclusions on the division of Ukraine are reached. To wit: 1) No SMO is conducted for others…Putin, Lavrov, etc., are not and don’t want to be peons for Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. 2) This feast does not happen even if Russia loses, because the West is with Ukraine now and will not distribute the pieces of Ukraine to other neighbors then.
I always enjoy listening to Yuri. Thanks for providing this interview.
Ok. what I gather from this interview is that Poland will be doing Russia a huge favor in denazifying Western Ukraine. Admittedly, NATO borders will creep closer to Russia but it is an easier assignment for Russia to have to manage.
Now, I am of the opinion that there are some backroom deals playing out… although it will look like Poland (NATO) will confront Russia, to which Russia will concede Western Ukraine.
It was not so long ago that Poland were unwilling to supply Ukraine with airplanes… All of a sudden, Poland has enough courage to take W.Ukraine. I do believe that Russia thinks that these civilans are beyond repair.
Given that Chechnia was able to be rehabilitated, it doesn’t bode well for Neo-Nazi W.Ukraine that Russia is prepared to concede territory to Poland in order to make life easier for itself and its republics.
Imagine the Argentinians being a lot less passionate about the Malvinas and you get close to how the Romanians feel about Transnistria. (And when I say “Romanians” I include the Moldovans as well because they are of course Romanians.)
The Malvinas are currently inhabited by as many Argentinians as live in… Mongolia. The Argentinians passionately want them back, fought a desperate battle to regain them (and curse Margaret Thatcher) but the British subjects now living there would not agree to a change of status.
Somewhat similarly Transnistria was historically Romanian territory de facto for hundreds of years, part of Moldova, and de jure on and off, but after Stalin grabbed it he had about 35,000 Romanian deported and replaced them with lots of Russians and Ukrainians. Russian became the official language. A plebiscite would resoundingly approve inclusion in the RF.
Nostalgia for “Greater Romania” (that includes Moldova,Bessarabia, Bukovina and lands on the Ukrainian bank of Tisa) resounds in the verse of the national Romanian poet Eminescu (died in 1859?) but such poems are banned now because they are also… anti-semitic.
It is not entirely clear how sanguine the Romanian feel anymore about regaining even Moldova.
IMO if Romania gets seriously involved it would not be on irredentist grounds bjut on NATO orders.
Thanks for your explanation, all news to me.
I’m sorry ariadna, Trans-nistria (“over-the-Dniestr”, or “Trans-Nistru” in Romanian) was never part of Romania, see Cunctator’s reply above, he is perfectly right:
But you have a point, indeed the Romanians would not like to be dragged into Zelensky’s war, especially after the interdictions of the use of Romanian language in schools (Ukrainians did this to other minorities’ languages, too). Ukrainians also called into military service people from Romanian minority and sent them to fight on the Eastern (Donbass) Front since 2015, while this was not their war to fight.
I agree – great to hear from Yuri. Please post more of his commentary as they become available!
Regards his belief that Poland will enter West Ukraine and this should not be opposed by Russia, it is certainly a controversial belief. Again I believe the smart move is for Russia to take all of Ukraine right up to the current Polish border.
One topic not discussed but mentioned in passing is that Poland is not the only country that has territorial claims over West Ukraine. My understanding is Hungary also has claims. He mentions Romania and Slovakia might also have claims. If this is so, and should Poland enter, would the other three NATO countries enter as well and could this provoke a conflict between these countries over who takes what in West Ukraine?
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergey Naryshkin said that “Washington and Warsaw are working on plans to establish tight Polish military-political control over ‘their historical possessions’ in Ukraine.”
Russia is against that.
A brief comment on what chief Sergey Naryshkin says (above) because it touches on my point: “2) This feast does not happen even if Russia loses, because the West is with Ukraine now and will not distribute the pieces of Ukraine to other neighbors then.”
Do I think he cancels point 2) in reality? No! He impressed me weeks before the SMO began with declarations that went far beyond anything Putin or anybody else had said. Later all the rest coalesced around him. There could be those Polish secret agents (linked article), but I think he is mostly trying to preempt what he may think is a mere possibility, or maybe to cause some distraction – he’s “working.” The West would not betray “Churchill” (Ze)! Not now especially. What he announces would also happen in the context of a NATO-Russia war, something awful that supersedes the chief’s point. What chief Naryshkin makes perfectly clear, and it’s why I quoted him, is that any ideas about Poland getting a part of Ukraine and thus expanding the presence of NATO into Ukraine, will only happen if the SMO fails and Ukraine wins. At that imaginary point, I say the West would not betray her by just giving her territories to NATO members.
Furthermore, to be not fair, but ‘super-extra’ fair to Yuri Podolyaka, a good risk, it’s possible that his main point was about Poland and that he made what could have been for him a tangential point about Romania, Hungary and Slovakia wanting their parts of Ukraine too. He made this point, prompting a question from Ms. Pikta in the same terms about ‘these countries’ getting their parts. He tacitly confirmed all by not correcting her and just answering her question with “…sooner rather than later, there would be NATO bases in Ukraine.” In this response, he gave a tacit confirmation – of what I understood like her – by not correcting her at all. Since we’re only imperfect human beings, there is a chance that he only wanted to make the point about Poland and got entangled with the Slovakia-Hungary-Romania issues too. I have to believe that it was what it was, but I wanted to mention this, additionally, because sometimes, and in a quick interview, this mistake happens. I do not know if he has confirmed such opinions elsewhere. I’m just going by what is here. It’s just as wrong with only Poland in mind but by adding all “the rest” he ends up too alone, and maybe he only wanted to make the point about Poland but just failed to do only that.
A reader may have anticipated what just now came to mind, but since last time Sergey Narishkin was speaking at the forefront of his government, where the issue was Ukraine’s plan to soon invade the Donbass, it’s possible that the same is happening now. To preempt such a plan between Poland and the U.S., Russia might plan to move West to keep those lands away from Poland (and NATO).
Based on the declarations from pres. Putin, Ukraine is indivisible to him and to them (the whole government). It is tied to Russia in the historic sense that Putin regaled us with in his Feb. 25 speech. Incidentally, everything is in this speech, past, present and future. This historic sense would be erased in the scenario presented by Podolyaka and many others. Russia will ‘recover’ Ukraine; it will not ‘conquer’ Ukraine. Incorporating only a few regions would become unjustifiable also before world opinion, no matter what or how many referendums are voted on. The only feasible way – politically – to incorporate Ukraine into Russia is as a whole without any exception. There is no reason to doubt pres. Putin’s own declarations about Ukraine.
Transnistria – Kaliningrad – the Caucasus front (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbeïdjan) – the Syrian combat outpost, possibly also the -Stans, and possibly also Serbia are all connected. A Western offensive would not come on a single front, but would be a coordinated air land sea and hybrid effort against all of them. Poland taking Lemberg is logical and in Russia’s interest. Let the Pollacks have fun with the crazy Ruthenians who hate everyone and have always been in conflict with everyone else around. As I wrote in one of my previous posts – no idea whether they passed censorship here – it would be an opportunity to straigthen out conflicts in Eastern Europe which existed since the end of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.