The Middle East Wars

It’s been an eventful two weeks without doubt.

By now we all know that France has been attacked by Islamic State fighters, a mixture of EU citizens and refugees. The toll has been somewhat significant, claiming the lives of 130 and injuring over 300. Bombs went off and gunmen went on a carnage through the streets of Paris, taking hostages along the way.

The aftermath and manhunt of those that got away and those that supported the attack were just as dramatic, with sieges, female suicide bomber (which turned out not to be a suicide bomber) and tangent intelligence/special operations in Brussels and Germany. [Source]

There seems to be a false-flag component to the attacks. Primarily due to the proximity to the Vienna talks about the Syrian war, the G20 summit, and the ongoing debate over Syrian refugees in the United States. Other theories also include a Mossad false flag as punishment for France recognizing Palestine, a French deep-state operation to mobilize the nation into permanent war, or a Zionist plot to stir up tension in the EU with the Muslim population and thus distracting the EU from world events with domestic problems.

Interestingly enough there is some very shady connections of the entire event being planned in advance. A Wikipedia article about the incident quickly sprang up and a tweet has been mentioned dating 2 days prior to the November 13 attacks. Other so called hallmark evidence is the drills that took place on the same day as the attacks. [Source][Source][Source]

The end result is that France now will work closely with Russia to strike the Islamic State. Although the decision for the carrier Charles de Gaulle to return to conduct operations in the area was taken on November 5th, 2015, the media is slowly trying to shift history indicating that the carrier was dispatched after the November 13 attacks. Charles de Gaulle has been conducting strikes on the Islamic State alongside the US since February of 2015 and France itself has had aerial assets throughout the region that were assisting in the air strikes much earlier than that. France was the first nation to join the US in its anti-ISIL operations.


• The liberation of Kweires air base near Aleppo by the Syrian Arab Army. A great morale boost and a tangible operational victory. The siege has been ongoing for nearly two years. Although there is still intermittent fighting and a large counterattack by ISIL is expected the fact it has been liberated shows clearly that the Syrian Arab Army are gaining significant victories against Daesh. [Source][Source]

• It is too early to initiate air operations out of the base considering its proximity to Islamic State units but it allows the SAA to begin securing the nearby neighborhoods and eventually spring-boarding attacks into Islamic State territory as reinforcements arrive. Supplies by helicopter (Iranian detachment) would allow the airbase to be a forward logistical point at the minimum.

• Once again Syria will undergo elections, this time in 18 months. How elections will be enforced in Islamic State territory escapes me. Maybe if the EU is REALLY friendly the Islamic State will let them set up polling booths. [Source]

• Putin, being wise and decisive, has warned his military to “catch up” but not commit an arms race with the US. The Chinese understand that starting an arms race with the US is what the United States want. The US will ALWAYS win in an arms race. [Source][Source]

• Russia seems to be suffering a series of international political attacks, specifically a doping scandal over its athletes. Full-Spectrum Dominance at work no less. [Source]

• 25 long-range bombers will be deployed from Russia to be used on targets in Syria. An additional 37 fixed-wing aircraft will be augmenting the forces already deployed in Syria.

• The deployment of the Tu-160 is overkill. Being strategic weapons they were tasked with delivering accurate payloads against European NATO nuclear weapon sites in the early minutes of a war breaking out. They are fast and large jet-powered aircraft capable of firing tactical nuclear stand-off cruise missiles (and painted anti-flash white to reflect thermal radiation from nuclear explosions; unlike US jets painted dark-grey to reduce visibility). [Source]

• These long-range bombers were used in tangent with naval cruise missiles from the Mediterranean and Caspian to unleash maximum carnage on Islamic State assets, including the destruction of oil truck convoys. [Source][Source]

• It’s claimed that an estimated 400 Syrian civilians have been killed in the past 7 weeks from Russian bombings. That number cannot be confirmed by independent sources. Though 400 is a bit high, to say that no civilian causalities have occurred would be US-levels of arrogance.

• More Iranian officers are dying. Again this could be indicative of accurate Israeli intelligence being handed to ISIL (Israeli intelligence was able to kill Iranian scientists all the inside Iran) or it could be the creed of the IRGC for officers to lead from the front. [Source][Source]

• Hezbollah is steadfast in the face of Islamic State bombings inside Beirut which killed 43 and vows new fronts against ISIL in response to the attacks in Paris. I should mention that France was a major broker in establishing a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah during the 2006 war and is a somewhat ‘trusted’ broker between Israel and Hezbollah. [Source]
Syrian Democratic Front and YPG (Kurds), Al-Nusra, Army of Conquest, and other actors (Anonymous):

• Kurds alongside the newly crafted Syrian Democratic Front have pushed onto Islamic State lines near the city of Al-Hasakah. [Source]

• Al-Nusra has claimed it shot down not one, but two Russian drones. What truth it holds is still questionable. Syrian forces have had both Iranian and Russian drones on-hand for a while. It could also be the typical propaganda piece, igniting the wreckage of yesteryear and shooting videos of it. [Source]

• The so called hacktivist group ‘Anonymous’ have released information claiming that attacks by the Islamic State are to occur in France, US, Italy, Indonesia, and Lebanon [Source]

• Anonymous has also ousted ISIL recruiters online and shutdown pro-ISIL media accounts and websites ever since the Paris attacks.


• Older British Chieftain tanks are being reactivated in the Iraqi Army. Considering the Iranians once had Chieftains they are probably providing the ammunitions for it. [Source]

• It seems that ethnic tensions between Sunnis and non-Sunnis is still high, specifically in Sinjar where looting has been reported. It seems the fires to continuously feed ISIL will never be stamped out. [Source]

• Some of these attacks seem to be committed by Peshmerga forces in Iraq against even Turkmen Shias. [Source]

• Kurdish fighters have previously joined the Islamic State at one point, highlighting the diverse Kurdish population in Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Iran. [Source]

• The Kurds have managed to cut the main highway to Mosul alongside an operation to recapture Sinja. The loss of Sinjar would cut off Mosul from easy resupply [Source]

• An Iraqi Army Russian-made Mi-28N has been used to engage Islamic State forces, a very advanced helicopter gunship [Source]

• As usual the majority of ground fighting is done primarily by militias with the Iraqi army providing fire-support and Special Forces [Source]

• The majority of these militias are directly supported proxies of Iran [Source][Source]

• Baiji is firmly in Iraqi army hands, the Islamic State has been crippled when it comes to oil revenue. [Source]

GCC (Saudi Arabia, Qatar) and other Arab nations:

• Qatar suffers its first causality in the Yemen conflict. I am truly astonished how easily GCC countries will help each other kill Arabs but not once in recent history will they send soldiers to assist Palestine or Syria or…. [Source]

• The UAE and Bahrain have already suffered a slew of causalities [Source]

• Saudi Arabia continues to unsuccessfully fight the Houthi Yemenis who are surprisingly achieving tactical victories across the board. Firing SCUD missiles into Saudi Arabia, capturing a Saudi town, capturing Saudi soldiers and even sinking a Saudi naval vessel (with some claims saying it was two). [Source][Source]

• The Saudis have traded economic favors for foreign soldiers to fight against the Houthis (from Sudan, Senegal, and Mauritania). Al-Qaeda is also fighting the Houthis for the KSA and Qatar [Source] [Source] [Source]

• Saudi Arabia’s military may consist of high-end weaponry purchased from the West but like all GCC militaries what they truly lack is competent and trained manpower to man these advanced systems.

• This has been a serious issue in Arab militaries, especially those modelled after Western-style doctrines. For example when the US wrote an Arabic manual for the M1 Abrams tank to hand out to Egyptian tank men, Egyptian officers went around and collected them. After all the officers were the only ones who had specialized information about the tanks functions, which gave them a level of prestige over their lower-ranked members. Losing this monopoly of information would directly correlate to losing prestige [Source]

• Soviet-style militaries (such as Syria and Saddam’s Iraq) were completely different however. Their only shortcomings were the export versions that were handed down to them by the Soviet Union (which continuously gave Israel and the US, the two main actors in the region, a technological edge; longer-range weaponry, more accurate fire-control, etc.). The Syrian and Iraq (Saddam) militaries were disciplined, experienced and had a high level of technical training (as seen by the competence of the core of Islamic State fighters and its ability to man weapon systems across the board; including Western weapon systems captured in Mosul thanks to the US training provided for the restructured Iraqi military).

• The UAE solution was to hire outsiders (mercenaries, private military contractors) to man weapon systems of which few domestic specialists are trained to handle.

• As a side trivia: The UAE also created a non-Muslim private-military force (Western veterans) separate from the national army in the event the military attempts to overthrow the government (or step aside like they did in Egypt). It was a subtle sign to reassure investors during the turbulent days of the Arab Spring that the UAE will not succumb to regime change. [Source]

• The Saudis seem to have expended the majority of their munitions and are ordering thousands of bombs from the United States. War is good business. [Source]

• Egypt seems to be doing its part for Israel as it kills refuges attempting to enter Israel from the Sinai. The collaboration seen between Sisi and Israel is much greater than that witnessed between Mubarak. [Source]

• The Shia-Sunni conflict is a recent event which is only be used for those in power to advance their agenda. It is NOT an age-old conflict the West would like others to believe. In the 70s Saudi Arabia did fear that the Islamic revolution would spread into Arab lands and persuaded Saddam to fight Iran. Even so it was only after the US occupation of Iraq did a Shia-Sunni divide ever emerge. One can link it to the Hutu and Tutsi divide seen by Belgium colonists which later spawned the Rwanda genocides (divide and conquer) [Source]


• Turkey has stepped up its campaign against the Kurds, specifically the PKK. Curfews are placed and lifted in every town in which operations are commencing. [Source][Source]

• Turkey is not only committing air strikes but ground operations against the PKK [Source]

• Turkey alongside the US are in a continuous operation to lockdown the entire Turkish-Syrian border [Source]

• To Scott: We really need a Turkish expert, this is not my area.


• The US tested an inert test ‘nuclear’ gravity bomb. The test was primarily around the new Mod 12 block which will add guidance features and allow the tactical nuclear bombs to be placed onboard F-35s (only the B2 was capable of deploying B61 nuclear bomb). The device is capable of multiple yields and caps at 50 kilotons. The tail section of the munition was the primary focus of the test. [Source]

• With very little evidence it may appear that Israel may have joined the US in its coalition airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria. Both Syrian and Israeli media noted an Israeli aircraft striking targets at the outskirts of Damascus airport. If the strike was a legitimate Israeli strike [Source] [Source]

• Netanyahu approached Obama in regards to fully recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli. A complete annexation will most likely see a military operation extend its dominion over the region. The chances of Israel fully annexing the Golan Heights are low for now as it would involve selling the idea to the Israeli people who right now are more worried about Palestinians with knives than conquering new lands. [Source]

• Israel seems to be stirring issues again (probably due to the pressure from their extremists right-wing population) to deny Palestinians access to the Al-Aqsa mosque (why, exactly, is not quite known) [Source]

• The EU, in another overly publicized yet ineffective gesture, is now asking products made in illegally occupied Palestine to be labelled accordingly [Source]

• Of course this gesture is useless because it doesn’t stop settler companies from selling their goods. It’s just forcing them to label their origin. In today’s age it’s not hard to falsify where something has been produced.

• Israel tactics of punishing the families of those that resist continues. The inability for Israel to understand its disproportionate responses and the connection to future Palestinian attacks indicates that escalation is purposeful. [Source]

• Israelis sure love burning people. The barbarity resembles the Islamic State. [Source]

• The US has been more vocal about “boots on the ground” in Syria. It seems the US media is slowly trying to feel out how well the people will respond if the US deployed larger numbers into Syria. [Source]

• The Pentagon has relaxed restrictions on Islamic State targets. Thus probably ending the funneling strategy (into Syria). [Source]

• Astonishingly 65% of Americans approve of boots on the ground, perhaps for the kids of today’s generation the Syrian war will be their Iraq war. [Source]

• For those Canadian out there a fallen brother comes home after fighting with the YPG against the Islamic State [Source]

Islamic State:

• Two suicide bombers from the Islamic State attacked a southern neighborhood of Beirut (predominately Shia area).

• Islamic State is also claiming responsibility of the terrorist attack in Paris

• It has been officially declared that a bomb did down Russian flight A321 in Sinai [Source]

• With the Russians increasing their volume in bombings, the US removing restrictions on ISIL targets, and the introduction of France (which will be a drop in the bucket) the Islamic State is beginning to suffer masses of airstrikes.

• The only means for the Islamic State to retaliate is to continue to attempt attacks such as those seen in Beirut and France but all over the West.

• A state of war is what the Islamic State thrives on. Peace will force the Islamic State to take on more governmental roles. Already the Islamic State faces an insurgency in Mosul from anti-ISIL locals dissatisfied with the Islamic States level of governing competence. [Source]

• The Islamic State suicide attacks will be continuous pressure on the Western population and in hopes right-wing parties will win elections and launch ground operations inside Syraq.

• These attacks will probably increase in intensity as election season comes closer in the US as well.

• It’s unknown the exact number of fighters that have entered the EU but these attacks seem to be the initial wave (exposing themselves drastically in Paris).

• Even now operations continue to hunt down Islamic State sympathizers and root out potential terrorist attacks. [Source]

• I would like to note how possible a Sarin gas attacks in a first world nation can be by highlighting the relative success of the 1995 Aum operation in Japan. This is why even minor threats are taken seriously such as the shutting down of underground transportation in the UK and of placing soldiers on the streets of Brussels. [Source]

• The Islamic State has always escalated action whenever counter-action is taken up against it.

• If I understand this strategy correctly (if the Islamic State isn’t being handed down its death sentence and in turn removing any evidence of Western intelligence support) the Islamic State will continue to attack Western targets in first-tier cities. Failing that second and third tier targets will be hit (smaller communities, infrastructure for townships instead of cities).

• The point of this is pressure on the population to either step out of the Middle East (which won’t happen) or to send military units to directly fight the Islamic State, that’s what the military is for.

• This is very similar to the Al-Qaeda strategy by Osama Bin Laden, although OBL had envisioned that an Arab Spring-style movement would occur as Western forces descended on Iraq. [Source]

• For the Islamic State to have a chance in creating some sort of change in the status-quo ISIL needs to lure these Western militaries everywhere in the Middle East, in Libya, in Syraq, in Afghanistan, in Yemen, and if they’re lucky even in Somalia and Nigeria.

• There has been a component of (Western) intelligence support for the Islamic State, not only does the Islamic State benefit from attacks in the West but so does the intelligence community which expands their budgets and gives them growing powers.

• But as Putin once remarked “who is playing who?”; I assume he gets reports across his desk proving the intelligence connection between the West, NATO, Israel, Turkey, KSA and the Islamic State.

• As the Saker has mentioned, right now it’s attempting to find the breaking point of the Islamic State. If the Islamic State has the same fervor as the NVA of Vietnam this fight will drag on for decades. If it is merely a mirage, a corps of a thousand fighters augmented by various tribes and militias, then the breaking point will be much faster culminating in a couple of months at best.

• The Islamic State may be physically destroyed but there is no guarantee intelligence agencies won’t keep the myth alive.

• In more tactical news an advanced unit of the Islamic State is about to join the forces in Kweires airbase and attempt to retake the field or as a blocking force for future SAA operations.

• Russia has proven to the Islamic State that it can escalate its attacks exponentially. First with air strikes, then air strikes with cruise missiles and now air strikes, cruise missiles, and bombing runs. What I don’t understand is why Russia didn’t do this all in the beginning, one initial shock attack on oil convoys, command centers, training facilities, etc. etc. etc. Does it take 7 weeks to collect intelligence on truck convoys moving in the desert?

• The fact that the Islamic State is creating a problem for a Russian ally and is engaging against IRGC forces means that inside some intelligence agencies the destruction of the Islamic State would be counterproductive to their goal of destabilizing Russia or Iran. For Israel the Islamic State bleeding the IRGC and destroying Syria is excellent geo-strategy. For NATO/US for the chance the Islamic State spreads into Russia and potential the Chinese Islamic heartland would continue its Full Spectrum Dominance doctrine.

• The Islamic State still has a significant arsenal in Iraq, including drones and even its own armor brigades [Source]  [Source]

• It seems that the Islamic State lacks anti-air weaponry of any real significance.

• The Islamic State still has streams of revenue outside of oil that come from organ trading (through Turkey and Israel), drug trafficking, plunder, sex-slave trading, and donations from entities inside Qatar. [Source] [Source] [Source] [Source] [Source] [Source]

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