Comment by Larchmonter445
“Better Understanding”? from Mercouris and Sleboda?
This is typical all or nothing bemoaning that the Kremlin critics and Putin critics always profess.
Syria is the most complex war in modern history. It makes the Balkans in the 90’s look like the 2008 “war” in Georgia.
Syria has so many nation-states, financiers, weapons suppliers, ideologies, religions and geo-political rivals that a Play Book is mandatory, but it has to be published daily.
Why wouldn’t Turkey do what it just did? Invade, project its power in an operation that has been on the books for a year or more? Everyone knew it was coming.
And if you knew, as the Russian Intel and military knew, of course, and it had been discussed at the top level before it started, then the US air support was approved by Russia. Had to be to get through the Russian S400 control of the skies. And so, the article in Kommersant is typical analyst talk and the RBTH stuff explains that the obvious is the obvious.
Turkey is acting solely in its interests. It must control the Kurds. It had to do what it did. And only the US would help. And the US double-crossed the very group of Kurds who bled and died for Manjib while the Kurds then saw the US withdraw its ISIS proxies from the vengeance of Turkey’s incursion.
That is the key here. The Kurds have no real ally in the US. That leaves a huge opening for Russia to use them when they want. And Turkey knows that, also.
Did anyone think Turkey would just get in line with Russia? It’s a long way from NATO to SCO.
Meanwhile, economics dictates their immediate relationship. Tourism by charter flights is going forward. Commodities trade is going forward. Gas pipeline is going forward.
The key is whether the Russian military assists the rebuilding of Turkey’s military and whether the Russian Intel agencies rebuild the Turkish Intel capabilities.
Turkey staying in NATO is no big thing unless NATO decides to go to war in Syria to “protect” Turkey. Who does Turkey need protection from? How much support will that war have in the next five months in the capitals of the EU nations? The Russian missile defense will have to be destroyed for NATO to support Turkey. What are the consequences? Nuclear war. So, Turkey gains nothing from being with NATO. And Turkey’s great strength for NATO was its Air Force, now problematic because it was the seat of the coup.
Turkey is using NATO and the US while it is weakened so it does not depend solely on Russia for protection. That realization of Turkey’s strategic weakness is often overlooked because of its internal weakness caused by Kurds, and now ISIS, and the refugees encamped inside and near or passing through Turkey.
Turkey is not double-crossing anyone. It is acting with whatever means it can to protect itself.
Putin understands it.
Announcing that the Russian General is not going to Turkey is just commonsense. The combat operation confused the moment. Everyone had to step back. Russia has done the same several times during its combat operations. It modifies its tactics and weapons use. It works diplomacy when many people think the military is doing just fine. It uses humanitarian efforts (at cost of its soldiers) when the opportunity or need is imperative. All these adjustments are realities that have to be faced.
Russia is in Syria to hold the nation together. It is probably the most difficult military task in the last 80 years. And it is slowly winning.
Turkey aside, what is the state of the war?
Can the US and Turkey continue to work their plan to both establish Kurdistan and stop Kurdistan, respectively? Dwell on that one for a moment.
Can the US continue to embed in Al Sham (the newly branded Al Nusra) and not suffer deaths of its special ops? Russia has given notice that anyone fighting Assad is a target. So, the day is coming shortly, and that will change the US actions.
The price of oil is rising. Russia will be able to do more.
China is stepping a toe, a military toe, into the war. They will bring more material and base inside Syria and probably off-shore.
The capacity for the final year (2017) of war will be all on the side of Russia-Syria and the Syrian coalition.
Turkey will be evaluating itself. If it thinks it can once again trust the US, it is like the snake handler who thinks just one more bite won’t be fatal. The snake kills everyone in the end. Erdogan is not about to be a lackey or allow Turkey to be a vassal. That is a certainty. He is no Poroschenko.
Wolfowitz’s mapmakers in the US are busy drooling over Turkey’s move. They believe the US suddenly pulled off a great tactical move, screwing the Kurds and saving the ISIS fighters from Turkey’s tank fire.
The really big deal is the re-arming of Al Sham and the prolongation of misery and combat in Aleppo. The US has formally and openly chosen the worst terror group as ally.
Russia will decide this in the end. What we are seeing in Syria is what we saw in Cambodia. The US created a monster death machine and then blamed the Vietnamese for invading and saving the Cambodians from the collapse of humanity.
The shape of the battle zone Russia is working has not changed. Eventually, the border will be an issue. And Turkey will find itself face to face with adjustments it must accept.
Turkey and Erdogan have nothing large to gain by working on the US side. He can see and smell the war. And if he resists Russia’s goals, a new gateway could be opened on the Turks for Kurds/ISIS to flow in and bog down his entire nation in a terror war he could only imagine in a nightmare.
His future is in doubt. He can’t trust his Air Force. He can’t trust his navy. He can’t trust the US. He really can’t trust the EU and he certainly cannot trust NATO.
Describing his situation as a break away from Russia, Eurasia, SCO is ludicrous.
He needs what Russia has. Iran, China, SCO, the capacity to control the war in Syria and win it.
And all the economics with Russia. Erdogan understood who called him and offered support during the coup. It was Eurasia.
Actually, when he called the US for help for the incursion, air cover, it forced the US to double cross the Kurds. Give Erdogan points for such a clever move.
An excellent overall picture by Larchmonter445.
This move by Turkey seems to have separated the men from the boys when it comes to analysts, with a fair number preferring to use their pre-conceived image of Erdogan as erratic rather than a very astute geo-political player that will see openings were others don’t.
His seemingly erratic moves of the past are now coming together – like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle forming a picture.
The excellent “Bianca” said the following in the Asia Times comment section:
” … Try to dig into Turkey’s internal political process, from the days the Syrian conflict started, to the end of May, this year, when finally Atlanticists lost. In a Party congress, Davutoglu did not get support, and he had to resign the post of Prime Minister as well as the head of the party. All his ministers followed suit. Upon appointing the new government, Erdogan immediately corrected the course back to Eurasian integrations, old relationships with Russia, SCO, and new Syria policy. It took less then a week to accomplish that. Why? The stalemate in Turkish ruling elites was broken, and Turkey was back on course it abandoned five years ago by external and internal pressures. The creeping coup, the method of trying to isolate and demonize Erdogan, did not succeed, in spite of billions of dollars spent in Turkey to influence politics. The soft creeping coup — having lost utterly — was replaced by a hot coup. It could have succeeded in decapitating the top layers of the government, and decapitating Erdogan literally — had It not been for some outside help in preventing it.
For Turkey it is now or never. It has to rid itself of the years of foreign influence in various segment of the society — and reestablish itself as a reliable partner to SCO. The idea that it will just play games with NATO and screw up efforts by Russia, Iran and China in the region — is plain nuts. Turkey will use appropriate time to distance itself from NATO — but it will have to be very gradual and carefully balanced. At this stage of Turkish politics, it will be wise of US to back off in Syria, and try to improve its image in Turkey. Much more can be lost by shoveling deeper when already in deep hole.”
From what I can see, there will be gradual winding down of the war in Syria rather than a victory of one side or the other as such.
Erdogan sees were the future lays, but his supporters are solid backers of the Syrian islamist militia groups, Nusra and ISIS. He would lose this support if he suddenly swapped sides which is why I think it will be wound down slowly.
Erdogan has no intention of being remembered as a US vassal. Leader of a sovereign state, in a multi polar world – if Ottoman empire cannot be achieved – is more to his liking I think.
well, I have to agree with Larchmonter445…
For some time that Sleboda’s articles reflect a bitter defeatism … don’t know why .. maybe influenced by Elijah J. Magnier, who has published pessimistic articles in relation to Russia, until yesterday, when he shifted. See here … : https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/08/30/putin-and-erdogan-have-agreed-on-a-restricted-road-map-in-syria-the-kurds-and-nusra-will -be-the-main-losers /
many good people entered this mood…
thank you Larchmonter445!
This analysis is very persuasive in that it makes the main outlines and constraints of an extremely murky situation much clearer than the first attempts provided on this site.
I particularly liked:
“Can the US and Turkey continue to work their plan to both establish Kurdistan and stop Kurdistan, respectively? Dwell on that one for a moment.”
The rest of the comment seems a reasonable and successful explanation/resolution of the many details flowing from this fundamental paradox, which details are found wanting, incoherent, and anxiety ridden in lesser attempts at explaining this combination of complications. Which mostly find themselves floating around chaotically disengaged from any comprehensible order with the others, in other analysis, as I see it, any way.
An excellent and thought provoking selection!
Very complex analysis I would like to add one thing. We hear about the fifth column in Russia and the Neocons in america but I think in any country you look, there is a fifth column of annoying profiteers.
They are jews, neocons or russian oligarchs who go to the bohemian grove together and have a cup of tea while watching some fake human sacrifices.
Once they get back in their country, they make sure those sacrifices happen legally, using the pretext of war on terror or spreading of democracy. Are they Jewish bankers, are they Christian Lobbyists? It does not matter. Soon, we will get tired of them and we will clean up this house. Their days are numbered. So help us God. Or if he is busy maybe some aliens can help or the prophet Muhammad? Anyone will do, at this point.
I agree with your comment. The evil doers are losers who have no faith in any spiritual quest, and settle for the material bait that dangles in front of their greedy eyes, only made possible by the smallness and sleeping state of their victims. Any significant growth or awakening by the masses, and it’s “game over” for them, in their present model, at least.
I laughed at your last two sentences. Then thought, “I’m glad he didn’t throw in Captain America! That wouldn’t go over too well here, or maybe anywhere, for a generation or two.”
Then I laughed some more.
With sanitation and garbage collection, the rat population decreases. With aggregate growth in consciousness, evil consequences are much constrained. I guess Mohammad could pitch in on that work. I confess I don’t know very much about him. But I’m sure there are others I never even heard of that could also pitch in.Even among so called “ordinary” righteous persons. ALL are welcome, I say.
You know the expression, the bigger they are the harder they fall? America is very very big right now. So, they probably will need captain america, sooner rather than later. Unless Putin is still alive and offers his help.
No kidding. When those 300 millions americans wake up from their dream of global domination, it might be rough.
They laughed when USSR fell, lets see how it goes when the biggest empire goes. I doubt if they will laugh anymore. I mean, just look at Hilary. She is a total mess and she is not even in office yet. I bet they know that the gig is up.
Excellent treatise on the current situation in Syria, all is laid out clearly and concisely.
VVP has a very full plate to work with. Turkey, Syria, Novorossiya, Krimu and Sevastopol, Byelorus. US/nato is attacking on all fronts and so far Mr. Putin has managed to stop them in their tracks and at the same time prevent a full blown war which in reality neither side wants but US will push to the very limit.
For those of you who have trouble comprehending why Europe is so willing to in essence shoot themselves in the foot with their lock step sanctions on Russia ordered by US, it is very simple. For decades US has spied on all leaders and up and coming leaders of Europe, each and every one of them. US has enough ‘dirt’ on all of them to destroy them overnight, hence the economically devastating sanctions inflicted on their own economies by the European leaders who fear being exposed for what they really are.
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This is a strong argument to explain Turkeys actions.
However Turkey has not proved that they can be trusted.
They have shown this with the shoot down of the plane – they went from cooperation with Russia to out right hostility. Then ran to NATO.
Trust in a country prepared to do that is pretty thin
Regarding the economic relationship with Russia – apart from the travel sanctions – nothing else has changed.
Alexander Mecoris is correct on this the meeting with Turkey was a beginning of dialogue, it was not the end of sanctions
Russia has not signed anything to remove other sanctions – they don’t trust Turkey.
So Erdogan may not care, he has people supporting him after the coup he gets a free pass from the people on the economy as the Turks rally behind him.
Erdogan after the coup is looking to get something back to restore his status.
How far he will go in Syria no one knows
He is still making demands on the EU but they are not listening – Merkels deal is not being implemented.
The fact that he brought 3000 or more jihadis with him pretending to be the FSA is an indication that he is not to be trusted
Also where is China?
On the bright side Cuba has sent medical supplies to Syria. No China
Russia and Syria are fighting the UN over accusations of use of chemical weapons no sign of China aligning with them at UN.
“However Turkey has not proved that they can be trusted.”
Geo-politics is all about leverage, not trust.
Turkey and Russia are geo-political antagonists. Turkey and US are geo-political antagonists.
At the moment Turkey has leverage over the US and at the moment Russia has leverage over Turkey.
Re: “…an the US and Turkey continue to work their plan to both establish Kurdistan and stop
Kurdistan, respectively? Dwell on that one for a moment.”
1. The issue seems to be a contiguous Kurdistan to the coast along the Turkish southern border. That potentially gives the US and its ME satrapies a pipeline route to the Mediterranean.
The US plays the Kurds as fools but the long term goal is a ‘win’ if only a remnant slice is retained as a Kurdish stronghold in the heart of the nexus between Iran-Turkey-Iraq-Syria. From this festering wound a new Zionist-like entity can grow as it did in Occupied Palestine.
Quelling the Kurdish ‘problem’ is in the interests of all (bar the US et al). Turkey may as well do it as any of them. In fact it is the obvious player with the most to lose (see map link above).
2. What is being missed so far, imo, is the beginning of the end game in Syria has the stated Russian intent to make Syria ‘whole’ again — and we will see this narrative emerge after the current phase settled down. That will then drag in the Golan Heights as an issue as well and likely Netanyahu’s Zionist entity will be forced to retreat under UN-Russian ‘observers’ with S400’s to keep the peace and referee the Israeli-Iran boxing match.
3. China’s ‘toe in the water’ is significant — both for UN support and the miraculous reconstruction of post-war Syria to more than its former glory. And paid for by oil from Golan and other reserves including ME gas transit to the Turk-Stream nexus via Gazprom pipelines.
4. Pivot out the USA!
I’ll say again: bye bye turkey, hello kurdistan!
It is now or never for the kurds.
Their status MUST be resolved along with the fate of Palestine.
I am sure Putin is aware.
Say goodbye Kurdistan, hello Turkey. The Syrian Kurdistan signed its own death certificate when it attacked Syrian government forces with US backing.
This is when Russia and Iran gave Turkey the nod to take out the Kurds.
The only way the US will set up a puppet Kurdistan now is by attacking and occupying NATO Turkey, Syria and Iran. Iraq they already have some control over but not the militias so there would be some resistance there too.
The Syrian Kurds were stupid enough to trust the US and attack Syria so I have no sympathy for them now.
There are just 2 sides fighting this miserable war….Syria’s legally elected government and it’s legal allies Vs the USA(because Israel) and it’s terrorist allies including Turkey. To say otherwise is to confuse the issue to protect the guilty. So sorry.
The real question is whether the US decision to support Turkey and abandon the Kurds was made by the local US commander on the hoof or by the POTUS.
Either way the US is now ‘winging it’ and has become reactionary rather than proactive.
A competent US command structure would now pull out completely because it has become crystal clear that the US-EU-Israel dictatorship is about to get its fingers irreversibly burned.
In England we have a saying, ‘give a man enough rope and he’ll hang himself’, regarding dubious enterprises. This is what Putin has done with the US in Syria (and Ukraine as well), and the US has just hung itself once again.
The US just can’t seem to help itself can it? No matter what it always seems to be only capable of, thoughtlessly, putting its foot in it.
I suppose this is what happens when you base your propaganda on lies and then come to believe your own propaganda!
With the encroaching Rus-Turk-Iran pragmatic alliance backed by the Remnibi, the US can only be in panic mode.
It looks certain that the US not only has enough rope to hang itself but will also conventiently place the noose around its own neck!
With Clinton as the next POTUS shovelled in by the neocon oligarchs, matters can only get worse. Then the US will no doubt provide its own rope and then proceed to hang itself from its own NATO gibbet!
latest crosstalk re flip flop Turkey
That was a “very” depressing Crosstalk. Two guests that tried to downplay the US’s roll in Syria. And Mark the only one stating the facts. For those that think Mark is a “CIA plant”. If so ,he does a horrible job for them. He speaks the truth,and destroys the US’s arguments constantly.When he applied for a job with Stratfor,it was 2011.Russia and the US were still “friendly”.And for a young American analyst starting out.I’m sure he thought it would be a good job to have. As I recall Saker himself worked as a US analyst in his youth. But certainly today see’s the World differently.I think the same could be said for Mark.
The two pro-US guests were pushing ,with “crocodile tears” the “possible” need to partition Syria. Which has been the West’s policy ever since they realized that the Syrian government wouldn’t fall to their jihadi helpers.No country has the “right” to partition a sovereign state. That is the one and only “bottom line” to this. If the West “all of a sudden” has a liking for partitions,they can start with Ukraine. And announce they have no disagreement with Novorossia breaking off from Ukraine. They can also announce that if Catalonia votes to leave Spain,then they support that. But we know they won’t. Because their liking for partitioning countries, is only for countries that they don’t like.Russia and China need to be 100% against the idea of partitioning Syria.If the West is able to start that precedent .In the future they will, without any doubt, use it against Russia and China.The “ears” of officials in Moscow should “perk up” at the very mention of that idea. And an absolute “nyet” should be their unyielding answer to it.
Some people do something because it is what the believe in. some people do job, simply because that is what they get paid for.
Sakers past is freely available at this site. analysing russian military strengths, weaknesses, and intentions was his profession and he is very good at it.
Alastair Crook, ex British diplomat very good in his field, Christopher black international law sometimes has articles at sites like NEO- very good in the field of his profession, and many others.
Putin has the runs on the board over a long period of time so its always worth analysing why he makes a move – like when he pardoned the sexually challenged, female neo-nazi Joan of Ark that had murdered two Russian journalists that had been elected to the Ukraine rada.
The difficulty we have sometimes is not have access to the intelligence and information Putin receives.
When I see so called analysts whose resume is student and volunteer work, or the average punter in comments sections say how foolish Putins move is…
Early in the piece, the US allowed Turkey to bomb the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds in return for being able to use Incirlik to bomb ISIS. When Turkey shot down the SU-24 they were put on the S-400 leash and did not hit the Syrian Kurds from that point on. Around that time, the US set up camp in Kurdish controlled Syria. Under the US this area expanded and became a US occupation zone. With US backing the Kurds then declared war on the Syrian government. Hasaka is outside the reach of the S-400s. When the Syrian government sent SU-24s to help their forces, the US sent F-22s and defacto declared a no fly zone for Syrian and Russian forces. It is doubtful the Russian latest SU- fighters – although good, could take on the F-22s and survive. What to do here? Commence mutually assured destruction. Or let turkey off the S-400 leash on provision they stick to a certain plan? (The stretch of territory Erdo wants to move into is within S-400 range)
So Turkey rolls into Syria, ISIS hands over control of Jarabulus, dons Free Syrian Army uniforms and they commence attacking the US occupied zone.
Now what does the US do? Does it attack NATO Turkey that hosts Inclirk, early warning radar and many other US bases?
What move does the US make now? Erdogan has just taken their jihad proxies and is using them to attack their Kurd proxies. Check if not checkmate against US in Syria.
Until now, the biggest problem was how to get the US out of Syria once they had gained a foothold.
Divide and conquer. Russia seems to be getting the hang of things.
Hello Uncle Bob 1 and Peter AU! Appreciate both your comments (and all your comments, very thoughtful and thought-provoking). I mentioned Mark Sleboda in another thread, questioning who specifically he is referring to when he says the German elites will never partner with Russia. I feel I should follow that up, given the controversy around Mark at times. I remember that earlier post that The Saker wrote about Boris Johnson’s winning Erdo limerick. The Saker mentioned that Russian news programs are much stuffier and cautious than American ones. I wonder if Mark Sleboda speaks with more opaque or non-specific references at times, for the sake of job security. As long as he is working for Russian media, perhaps he chooses to self-edit more strictly or carefully than he would otherwise. At times, it might appear like he’s dodging the truth or something, but I too can’t imagine that he is a CIA plant.
That is not a comment, but an essay (S). Too it is a very good take on the situation. One small criticism I have is that Government Corporation from what I have observed do not necessarily (hardly ever) act in their peoples or their countrys’ best interests. The Globalists have so far demonstrated excellent control over the leaders aligned with NATO (US) Turkey included. So I would not attempt to analyse President Erdogans actions on a rational patriotic basis. That said, things can change. So one hopes.
Removed. Please keep your comments on topic and no attacking the author. Mod
“[…] Public opinion was led to believe that relations with the US had not only deteriorated, but that Erdogan had vowed to restore “an axis of friendship” with Moscow, including “cooperation in the defence sector”. This was a hoax.
Turkey’s Invasion of Syria
The implementation of the Turkish invasion required routine consultations with the US and NATO, coordination of military logistics, intelligence, communications systems, coordination of ground and air operations, etc. To be effectively carried out these military endeavors required a cohesive and “friendly” US-Turkey relationship.
We are not dealing with a piecemeal military initiative. Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield could not have taken place without the active support of the Pentagon, which ultimately calls the shots in the war on Syria.
The likely scenario is that from mid July to mid-August US, NATO and Turkish officials were actively involved in planning the next stage of the war on Syria: an (illegal) invasion led by Turkish ground-forces, backed by the US and NATO.
Map of the Turkish-led offensive in the northern Aleppo Governorate, showing the ongoing developments in west of Euphrates River. Source Wikipedia
The Failed Coup Sets the Stage for a Ground Invasion
1. Massive purges within the armed forces and government were implemented in the immediate wake of the July coup. They had been planned well in advance. ”Arrested immediately were 2,839 army personnel with 2,745 Judges and Prosecutors ordered detained… In under a week 60,000 people had been fired or detained and 2,300 institutions closed” … “ (See Felicity Arbuthnot, Global Research, August 2, 2016)
2.The coup was intended to fail. Erdogan had advanced knowledge of the coup and so did Washington. There was no conspiracy directed by the CIA against Erdogan. Quite the opposite, the failed coup was in all likelihood engineered by the CIA in liaison with Erdogan. It was intended to consolidate and reinforce the Erdogan regime as well as rally the Turkish people behind their president and his military agenda “in the name of democracy”.
3. The purges within the Armed Forces were intended to get rid of members of the military hierarchy who were opposed to an invasion of Syria. Did the CIA assist Erdogan in establishing the lists of military officers, judges and senior government officials to be arrested or fired? The Turkish media was also targeted, many of which were closed down.
4. Erdogan used the July 15 coup to accuse Washington of supporting the Gulen movement while seeking a fake rapprochement with Moscow. He flew to St Petersburg on August 9, for a behind closed doors meeting with President Putin. In all likelihood, the scenario of a rift between Ankara and Washington coupled with the “my friend Putin” narrative had been approved by the Obama administration. It was part of a carefully designed intelligence ploy coupled with media disinformation. President Erdogan, vowed according to Western media reports: “to restore an ‘axis of friendship’ between Ankara and Moscow amid a growing rift between Turkey and the West.”
5. While “mending the fence” with Russia, Turkey’s military and intelligence apparatus was involved in planning the invasion of Northern Syria in liaison with Washington and NATO headquarters in Brussels. The underlying objective is to ultimately confront and weaken Syria’s military allies: Russia, Iran and Hezbollah […] http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-turkey-invasion-of-northern-syria-cia-failed-turkey-coup-lays-groundwork-for-broader-middle-east-war/5542921
Interesting theory that will either prove itself or not with events and actions on the ground in this swirl of alliances, counter alliances and deceptions. Would Turkey-Erdogan say good riddance to the Kurds, allowing a chunk of Turkey to secede and amalgamate with Kurdish Syria in exchange for a chunk on northern Syria west of the Euphrates that includes Aleppo-Hama? This would certainly be in keeping with the Empire’s grand plan of redrawing the Mid East boundaries.. This thought may be “out there”, but no one is showing their cards in this human disaster.
I also enjoy all your comments, Larchmonter. Good point about the complexity and fluidity with the war in Syria. So maybe we need Larchmonter445’s Syrian Play Book, published regularly? :-) I’m teasing, no pressure – although if this was published (regularly or otherwise), I would read it.
I appreciate your kind remarks.
Syria is just too fluid and has too many forces at play to keep a handle on it from this distance.
Analyzing Syria in real time is like keeping track of ocean waves rising and falling 100 miles out in the dark of night.
The coup and incursion crystalized a few things at a time when some crucial battles are at climax moments. This made it more static with salient facts I could grasp and use.
I’ll keep watching. The US is definitely doing hellish things in a desperate move to cost Russia losses and to get a shot at Assad. Those are policy constants.
The other thing to watch in Syria and Libya and over in Ukraine is NATO. Will they ever risk a land war again? Their wet dream is to harm Russia in some conflict. Their issue is they don’t want to get destroyed in that conflict. But the US doesn’t care if NATO gets chopped up, so long as Russia suffers some setback to their public image as a military that is demonstrably as good as any.
What are your thoughts on Erdogan Larchmonter? I have moved from thinking of him as erratic and untrustworthy to Erdogan being a very smart operator, seeing openings where others do not, an Islamist Turkish patriot who has a vision for the future, every “erratic” move gaining more power, nobodies vassal, but still untrustworthy.
Leader of a sovereign nation in a multi polar world I think would suit Erdogan better than vassal status to the Hegemon.
I’ve stuck my neck out on this one on this blog, as it is what I have come to believe – not that my opinion is worth much. Your opinion on Erdogan would be appreciated.
Joaquin Flores just published on FortRus an interview style analysis of his. It presents a very rational approach to Erdogan, unemotional and quite excellent.
Erdogan is in a vise of his own making. But he has a lot of options. If he acts in behalf of Turkey’s best future, he will go toward Eurasia and forward with Russia in most important ways.
But he may think he’s smarter than everyone and follow his own personal interests. Very dangerous to be in with giants. Dictators get crushed when they assume it won’t happen to them.
We need to see more time pass to judge who he truly is. We are watching a very dynamic war and geopolitical struggle for economic dominance in the region. Sadly, it is very far from over.
Thanks for the link to Flores. Helps explain what was happening on the alternative sites and blogs in the days following Turkey’s move.
But in conniving with the Turks in the invasion and capture of Jarabulus, did not Russia also is seen to have sold out the Kurds? Or is the Kurds dispensable to all concerned, to be disposed of to advantage at the right place and time, in any which way that suits?
The Wall Street Journal had an article about what happened behind the screens before the Turkish invasion. It claims that the US and Turkey has been planning a Turkish invasion – that would target ISIS – for a long time. The plan was that some US Special Forces would take part. But in the end end the US took too much time while the Turks were in a hurry so they invaded alone, confronting the US with accomplished facts.
Another article worth reading is
One may disagree with it but at least it is well documented.
A little Russian Roulette…..